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Speaker 1: I want to welcome everyone back to part six of

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my reading of Coude Ta by Edward Lutwach. John Field

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houses back, and we're going to jump right in. Stop

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me anytime, John, Here we go.

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Speaker 2: We'll do.

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Speaker 1: Neutralizing the police. The flags and uniforms of the military

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forces of different countries are very different, but their structure

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and organization tend to be similar because they reflect the

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universality of modern technology. The tactical implications of weapons and

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ancillary equipment impose a certain uniformity on military organization. This

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has enabled us to study their infiltration in terms that

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are generally applicable. Police forces, however, are shaped by local,

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social and political conditions and are therefore very diverse. Police

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officers can be armed very heavily or not at all.

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They can be concentrated in mobile and hard hitting units

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or dispersed in small groups. They can be controlled by

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the Ministry of Defense and thus have a military training

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and outlook, or by the local community and be extremely

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civilian minded. Though their structure is so diverse, police forces

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resemble each other in the purposes. They serve the prevention

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and detection of crime and the maintenance of public order,

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which is The task of separate paramilitary forces in some

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countries where there are no such forces, is secured by

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concentrating and deploying ordinary police taken from their other work.

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Police work also includes an intelligent element. Information is gathered

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informally by the entire police apparatus and their informers, but

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there will usually be a special section of the police

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whose only function is in this area. The intelligence aspect

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of police work will be effectively neutralized by our general

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defensive effort viasa the security services, which is discussed in

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the next section. Paramilitary forces do not exist in the

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United Kingdom, where there are provisions for the army to

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act in support of the civil power, or in the

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United States, where the part time soldiers of each state's

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National Guard can be called out instead, but such forces

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are extensively employed in many other countries. In France, for example,

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there is a civilian police force, the Police Nationale, but

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there is also a paramilitary force, the Gendarmerie, that normally

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acts as the rural police. The Gendarmerie is controlled by

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the Ministry of Defense and its officers are integrated in

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the ranks of the armed forces. Its members receive light

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infantry training as well as police training. It numbers about

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ninety thousand men and women and is organized into departmental

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forces that are scattered in small groups all over the countryside,

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as well as mobile groups concentrated in large units legions.

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We can ignore the departmental forces because they would probably

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be unable to intervene within the short time frame of

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a coup, but the mobile unit, each of which consists

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of seven squadrons of truck gendarme and one armored car squadron,

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represent a formidable force that would have to be neutralized

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or isolated.

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Speaker 2: I was just going to say, yeah, there are a

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bunch of things that are kind of obsolete, or a

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lot of stuff that's obsolete the section, but we talked

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about the first two times we discussed this chapter.

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Speaker 1: The mobile Gendarmerie live in military type barracks and are

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equipped with submachine guns and heavier infantry weapons. They're armored

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cars thirteen ton wheeled vehicles with forty milimeters armor can

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only be stopped with standard anti tank weaponry. Officially, the Gendarmerie,

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unlike the other two police forces, has no intelligence service,

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but during the Algerian War, a security section was set

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up and as bureaucratic organizations often do, has survived the

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demise of its original function. The Police Nationale, which carries

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out police work and population centers of more than ten

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thousand inhabitants, is largely composed of units of actives and

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a massive ordinary police officers. It is, but it also

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has a paramilitary force of its own, the Campagne Republican

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Day Security CRS. It numbers about thirteen thousy five hundred

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trained and equip like the mobile units of the Gendarmeri,

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minus the armored cars. The CRS is staffed with personnel

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who have been carefully select screened politically, and it is

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headed by an assistant director of the Ministry of the Interior.

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The Police Nationale also has an intelligence service that concentrates

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on the more sophisticated forms of crime, an a counter

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intelligence service that also carries out political work and the

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surveillance of aliens. Both intelligence organizations operate all over France.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, France is a weird case where the two police

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forces duplicate themselves. You see that a lot in the

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former Soviet bloc, but it's a rare case of a

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Western European power that does that. And one of the

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reasons done for that is the Police Nacio now, who

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are officially civilian, despite having the same rank structure, is

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a unionized force and therefore has been connected to leftist

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politics in France historically, whereas the Jean de Marie come

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from the same population that would do the professional military,

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so they tended to be much more loyal or much

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more connected to the regular army, which in France, which

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has a history, a modern recent history of coups, that

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was always a big issue. So it's just one of

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the weird issues you deal with in France that you

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see in lots of other countries that you generally don't

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see in the excuse we don't see in Western Europe

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or North America.

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Speaker 1: That's really interesting. Thank you all. Police work in the

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Department de la Sainne, the Paris area is the exclusive

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province of the prefect Tour de Police, now part of

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the Police Nationale, which has been made internationally famous by

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one of the fictional inspectors novelists Georges Simon name's Jules Madre.

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The prefecture has influenced the organization of police forces in

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many countries in Southern Europe and the Middle East, and

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we will study it in greater detail than other French

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police forces. Anatomy of a police force the Paris Prefectur

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is that the way it's pronounced the Prefectur.

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Speaker 2: I mean I speak extremely little French, so I.

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Speaker 1: Think, okay, okay. It is our hope that the police

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of the capital city, which is the Localiba Coup, will

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be less powerful than the Paris Prefecteur. It consists of

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about thirty four thousand officers and is organized in several directorates,

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of which the following concern us directly. The Police Municipal

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is the largest directorate and controls the familiar uniform flicks

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with their largely symbolic pistols and their much used trunctions.

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They are dispersed in twenty districts in the city and

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twenty six suburban ones. Their standards of training and discipline

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have varied over the years, but their capacity for individual

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brutality does not add up to an effective intervention capability

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in the event of a major disturbance. They are deployed

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in columns of civilian type buses that could be stopped

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by suitable roadblocks. Their training and mentality will probably make

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them neutrals if we can prevent their concentrated deployment.

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Speaker 2: These are just the general standard patrol officers we think of,

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and I think the best American comparison would be like

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the New York Police Department, if they just separated out

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patrol from detectives and all their specialty functions.

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Speaker 1: The Police Judiciaire is the Paris investigated police and one

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of the global pioneers of scientific detection. Apart from the

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incidental intelligence aspect of their work, we can ignore this directorate.

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Speaker 2: This is just like if they had pulled NYPD, you

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just put all their detectives under one command.

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Speaker 1: See. The Intelligence Service, like its counterparts in the Police Nationale,

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is mainly concerned with sophisticated crime, drugs, vice, and high

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class gambling. But it also has a political section that

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carries out surveillance work nowadays focused on Islamic terrorism. As

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in the case of the other security agencies. We will

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cover the appropriate defensive tactics in the next section.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this is kind of like the national security part

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of the FBI. One of the issues even in the

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West right, most countries in the world other than the

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United States will have something that's more or less a

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political police force slash domestic counterintelligence agency that's part of

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their standard law enforcement.

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Speaker 1: Aliens. Director OPT is a small group mainly concerned with

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the bureaucratic routines of issuing and checking residents permits. It

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exercises general surveillance over transient foreigners. The fiches you fill

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in at the hotel are collected by the Directorate and

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over the more sensitive immigrant communities. Its work will only

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affect us if we have some connection with foreign elements,

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particularly those foreign communities that have a history of political

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activity in its more violent forms. Can wonder if they've

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grown since he revised this, or if they've been eliminated altogether.

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Speaker 2: Well, EU is weird, right, because you don't have any

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internal borders, but the thanks to the airplanes, you can

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theoretically enter anywhere anyways. Most domestic law enforcement agencies in

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the world have a some kind of an immigration department

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that on top of whatever the national immigration agency is.

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So yet when we talk about, you know, sanctuary cities

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and whether or not local cops should be allowed to

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enforce immigration laws and say, you know, bullshit, that's what

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the entire world is. Places like Japan, it used to

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be every year, if you had a permanent residence permit,

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you actually had to go and meet with a detective

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where they sat down and confirmed all your stuff, or

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else you would have your your visas revoked. So yeah,

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the rest of the world has always enforced immigration laws,

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though Europe not so much. Since you know, two thousand.

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Speaker 1: Or so, that's actually one hundred percent correct about Japan.

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I know a couple of people who have lived there,

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Americans there. E Safety of the President is a directorate

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concern with the physical protection of the president, but it

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also carries out a preventative intelligence function. Following the repeated

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assassination attempts organized by the Organization of American States OAS

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and its affiliated organizations in the early nineteen sixties, this

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section of the prefecture was reinforced with carefully screened personnel

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taken from the entire security apparatus, and a tradition of

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very careful personnel selection persists. The security system of the

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Lys Palace would be a serious obstacle to its seizure

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during a coup, and.

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Speaker 2: This is true in most countries, whoever their executive security service,

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and like the UK, is a really weird example that

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the people who guard the royal family and guard the

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Prime Minister are actually part of the London metro Politan

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Police because Britain has never had a national police force.

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So yeah, this is pretty standard for most of the world.

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Speaker 1: Okay, And f the Guard Republican, they're controlled by the

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prefectur This is part of the Gendarmerie and is equipped

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with light infantry, weapons and a variety of transport equipment.

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It provides the horse helmeted and plumed presidential guard on

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ceremonial occasions, but it's two regiments are hard hitting mobile

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forces whose neutralization would be an essential requirement in the

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events of a coup.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I apologize for not muting myself earlier. Yeah, this

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unit is again it's part of the gen d'armerie, even

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though it's controlled by the local prefecture. The best way

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to understand these is they're like the Old Guard or

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the Marine Corps regiment that both do presidential guard duties,

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ceremonial honor guard duties, and just like the US where

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both those units actually have a real life security function

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other than parades, but that's a primary duties like parades

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and anyways, very often if there's an emergency, they can

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be mobilized for public order additional stuff. Again, because these

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are the Gendarmerie. They're part of the regular military. That

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has historically been an issue in French politics because again,

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what was it the attempted puts against de Gaulle where

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the paratroopers were actually near the president's residents at that time.

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The reason they finally surrendered is it was a unit

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of gendarmes that came out and surrounded them, because those

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soldiers had pretty much made it clear that if it

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was civilian police, they had no problem killing civilian police,

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but they weren't willing to fight other soldiers who some

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of them had even served within the past. So again,

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the French balance between two police force exists for a reason.

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Speaker 1: The existence of separate police organizations is one of the

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problems of neutralizing this part of the security apparatus. And Britain,

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the division is largely territorial at its purpose is to

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give the local interest and measure of control over the

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police force, but there are also specialized forces that reflect

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functional divisions. Apart from the county base police long since

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amalgamated into larger groups, there are the following independent police forces,

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the Admiralty Constabulary, Air Ministry Constabulary, Atomic Energy Authority Constabulary,

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five independent harbor police Forces, British Transport Commissioned Police, Civil

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Aviation Constabulary, Ministry of Defense Constabulary.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and again because Britain, at least in England and

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Wales right most of the county, most of the police

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are county or city based except for these and again

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these are especially things. A lot of it has to

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do with the fact that these specially agencies, they're allowed

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to carry weapons as a routine part of their duty.

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Everybody is a certified firearms officer because things like nuclear

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power plants and military bases you need people with guns

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to guard them. One of the things he doesn't really

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mention that has changed since then is like Scotland actually

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amalgamated all their police forces into one police force since then,

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and Northern Ireland, the Royal Circumstabulator was replaced with the

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Police Service in Northern Ireland, which I don't think anybody

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understood that military people were going to pronounce that acronymics penis,

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so they transferred their police services too. So yeah, England

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and Wales proper they have this weird Patrick system though

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even on the backward back in excuse me, most of

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their training has been consolidated and the Home secretary controls

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so much of how organizations are funded that they're not

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really local other than the cosmetics of their organization.

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Speaker 1: All these police forces are strictly confined in their operations

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to the installations they protect, but similar organizations in other

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countries where bureaucratic propensities are subject to weaker controls, have

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shown a remarkable ability to grow and diversify. Though the

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French police system is particularly extensive, it's basic feature are

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shared by police forces in most of Africa, Asia and

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the Middle East. The paramilitary element is usually present in

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the form of a field force attached to the regular police,

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or else in the form of armored car units. The

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riot control element is reproduced in the special squads of

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Middle Eastern police forces, which can be very effective in

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spite of their small size. Whereas in most parts of

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Asia a serious insurgency situation has been experienced, this common

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pattern has been distorted by the proliferation of ad hoc

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police forces that carry out combined internal security and administrative functions.

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South Vietnam was once the extreme example, with no fewer

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than five different security organizations with police functions. If the

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British police system can be said to be divided into

259
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largely territorial units, and the French one into largely functional ones.

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In the United States, the division is largely constitutional, except

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for the specialized work of the police agencies attached to

262
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various apartments of the federal government. Only the FBI, the DEA,

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and Bureau of our Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives have

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nationwide jurisdictions, and then only for certain crimes legally defined

265
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as federal. Most ordinary police work is carried out by

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purely independent local forces maintained that the municipal, county, or

267
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state level. The fragmentation of the system means that the

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police as such would have a very limited intervention potential,

269
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in spite of its extensive stock of weaponry and communication equipment.

270
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There is, of course, the National Guard, but this has

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00:16:34,879 --> 00:16:37,480
not so far been organized in a manner that would

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give it a real intervention capability. In America's riots, the

273
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guard forces routinely failed to perform efficiently, even against untrained civilians.

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Speaker 2: The strategy I'm sorry you have saying that the National

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Guard with take sections in their military police units. Virtually

276
00:16:54,639 --> 00:16:57,639
nobody has any kind of public order training.

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Speaker 1: The strategy of the coup with respect to the police

278
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system of our target country will therefore have to be

279
00:17:03,639 --> 00:17:10,400
as diversified as its component parts. The paramilitary element. Paramilitary

280
00:17:10,400 --> 00:17:13,640
forces are usually able to perform a military as well

281
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as a police function. This versatility has resulted in their

282
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rapid growth, partly because they may be a genuinely economical

283
00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:24,400
way of improving the security system in general, and partly

284
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because funds are often easier to secure for them than

285
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for the regular police. An opposition party or public opinion

286
00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:35,200
which may resist an increase in the police budget, can

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often be persuaded to allocate funds for the Ministry of Defense,

288
00:17:38,759 --> 00:17:43,200
and paramilitary forces are usually under its administrative control. In

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00:17:43,240 --> 00:17:46,640
the newly independent countries, the paramilitary element of the police

290
00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:49,359
can be a very serious obstacle to the coup because

291
00:17:49,799 --> 00:17:52,720
while the army is often a recent post colonial development,

292
00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:57,920
the police and its paramilitary units are usually old established organizations.

293
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This means that the police can be can be larger

294
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than the army and also sometimes superior in the quality

295
00:18:03,680 --> 00:18:06,279
of training and equipment. If this is the case, it

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00:18:06,319 --> 00:18:09,160
will not be possible to control the paramilitary units by

297
00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:15,319
using the part of the army we have incorporated against them. Fortunately,

298
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governments have striven to increase the size of their armed

299
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forces in a great many countries. In post colonial settings,

300
00:18:22,839 --> 00:18:26,279
the unfavorable for US balance of strength between the army

301
00:18:26,319 --> 00:18:30,279
and the paramilitary police was usually reversed within a few

302
00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:33,960
years of independence. This is perhaps one of the explanations

303
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for the sudden spate of coups in Africa in the

304
00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:39,680
course of nineteen sixty six to nineteen sixty seven, which

305
00:18:39,720 --> 00:18:41,920
came after a phase of very rapid expansion in the

306
00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:45,240
armed forces. It is interesting to note that while the

307
00:18:45,319 --> 00:18:48,599
ruthless oppression of the colonial powers was often carried out

308
00:18:48,640 --> 00:18:53,559
by means of a village constabulary with few military pretensions,

309
00:18:53,839 --> 00:18:56,519
the new era of freedom often required the creation of

310
00:18:56,599 --> 00:19:02,599
heavily armed paramilitary police forces. In Ghana, for example, the gut.

311
00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:05,000
Speaker 2: Now I was just saying, this is just a really

312
00:19:05,039 --> 00:19:09,119
good example of what needs to be understood anytimes the

313
00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:12,119
establishment left talks about colonialism and oppression.

314
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Speaker 1: In Ghana, for example, the police system was expanded after

315
00:19:17,039 --> 00:19:19,920
independence in nineteen fifty seven, and armored car units were

316
00:19:19,920 --> 00:19:23,640
added to the already existing mobile police. The communication system

317
00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:26,880
of the police was made independent of civilian services and

318
00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:29,559
the escort police, which used to be a fezzed and

319
00:19:29,599 --> 00:19:33,759
barefooted force of amiable illiterates was turned into an effective

320
00:19:33,839 --> 00:19:37,599
riot breaking unit. If the paramilitary police is large, as

321
00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:39,680
compared to those units of the armed forces that we

322
00:19:39,720 --> 00:19:42,599
can incorporate, it will be necessary to repeat the whole

323
00:19:42,640 --> 00:19:46,640
analysis and infiltration procedure within it. We may indeed be

324
00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:50,480
able to concentrate on the paramilitary police and content ourselves

325
00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:54,880
would neutralize in the army by technical means. Normally, however,

326
00:19:55,000 --> 00:19:57,960
the balance of forces between the means of coercion of

327
00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:00,839
the state will not require this, and we will be

328
00:20:00,880 --> 00:20:03,039
able to isolate the police for the duration of the

329
00:20:03,079 --> 00:20:07,519
coup by using the army. The first step in our

330
00:20:07,519 --> 00:20:10,880
neutralization of these forces is to establish the size, deployment,

331
00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:14,720
and organization of the paramilitary police. This is usually easier

332
00:20:14,759 --> 00:20:17,079
than in the case of the army, because, unlike the latter,

333
00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:21,319
paramilitary forces are usually stationed in permanent barracks. Next, we

334
00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:23,640
will try to find out their degree of attachment to

335
00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:26,640
the present regime, but this will not involve the sort

336
00:20:26,680 --> 00:20:30,160
of sort of study in depth we made of the army,

337
00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:32,279
and it will only be a matter of finding out

338
00:20:32,319 --> 00:20:37,200
about their corporate rather than individual outlook. The mentality of

339
00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:40,480
the paramilitary police may be bureaucratic i e. Concerned with

340
00:20:40,599 --> 00:20:43,640
jobs and career, as in the case of the Italian

341
00:20:43,759 --> 00:20:52,039
publica Sokuuraz and it's paramilitary units. If this is the case,

342
00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:55,599
a minimal degree of intervention can be expected. On the

343
00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:58,359
other hand, their mentality may be parallel to that of

344
00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:01,599
the army i e. With loyalty and honor as well

345
00:21:01,599 --> 00:21:05,960
as jobson's careers, or reflect a political association, as was

346
00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:10,480
the case of the Soviet Union's kgb or Haites tantan

347
00:21:10,759 --> 00:21:16,319
Markos of the Duvalier era era. If the equipment, deployment

348
00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:19,160
and mentality of the paramilitary polices such as to make

349
00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:22,799
them an effective intervention force, we will have to control

350
00:21:22,839 --> 00:21:25,599
them in the same manner as the hardcore loyalist forces

351
00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:28,960
of the army. The ways and means of this forcible

352
00:21:29,000 --> 00:21:33,519
isolation will be discussed in Chapter five. Usually, however, we

353
00:21:33,559 --> 00:21:37,640
will find the paramilitary police force is essentially bureaucratic, and therefore,

354
00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:40,640
in spite of its impressive military bearing and equipment, it

355
00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:43,480
will not intervene against the armed support of a coup.

356
00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:46,160
I have been unable to find a single case in

357
00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:49,880
the last twenty years of a paramilitary police force that

358
00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:53,640
had actually defended its political masters during a coup, though

359
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:56,519
there are several cases of their intervention on behalf of

360
00:21:56,559 --> 00:21:57,559
the coup, the.

361
00:21:57,599 --> 00:21:59,400
Speaker 2: Jean dere Marie protecting the Gauls.

362
00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:04,480
Speaker 1: From the examples, the rural police. In poorer countries, this

363
00:22:04,599 --> 00:22:07,640
element of the police force is numerically the strongest. This

364
00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:09,920
is only to be expected since most of the population

365
00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:13,480
of such countries live in villages and works in agriculture.

366
00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:16,240
In spite of its large size, this part of the

367
00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:19,960
police will almost never have an intervention potential against a coup.

368
00:22:20,559 --> 00:22:24,119
They are often commanded by retired non commissioned officers, fully

369
00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:27,039
integrated in the rural society in which they live, and

370
00:22:27,079 --> 00:22:31,160
even where there are provisions for their mobilization and concentrated use,

371
00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:34,799
they are unlikely to be assembled, equipped and prepared in

372
00:22:34,839 --> 00:22:39,039
time to intervene against us. Whether the rural police officer

373
00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:44,640
is a guard champetree with an ancient pistol inscribe le Lois,

374
00:22:44,759 --> 00:22:49,599
or a Middle Eastern zaptier who plays the village boss,

375
00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:52,279
he will hardly want to rush to a remote capital

376
00:22:52,359 --> 00:22:57,119
city to protect an equally remote government. The urban and

377
00:22:57,200 --> 00:23:00,200
national police, though this part of the police force be

378
00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:03,680
considerably less dispersed than the village based rural police, its

379
00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:06,440
main components will be just as ineffective against the coup.

380
00:23:07,279 --> 00:23:09,640
The personnel of the urban police will fall into three

381
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:15,119
broad categories, crime, detection and investigation, normal surveillance and traffic duties.

382
00:23:15,559 --> 00:23:18,720
The detective element will be small, very bureaucratic minded, and

383
00:23:18,759 --> 00:23:23,079
apart from its incidental intelligence aspect, it can be ignored

384
00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:26,039
by us. The uniform police, which carries out all the

385
00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:29,440
usual surveillance duties, will be more numerous, but though they

386
00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:32,759
may be useful as a riot breaking force when suitably concentrated,

387
00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:35,519
they are unlikely to act against armed opponents in a

388
00:23:35,519 --> 00:23:40,279
major political crisis. The municipal police, largely concerned with traffic duties,

389
00:23:40,319 --> 00:23:43,400
will usually be staffed by middle aged men of retiring disposition,

390
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:47,960
with small and rusty pistols. There have, been, however, exceptions,

391
00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:52,359
such as the Spanish Policia Armada e del Trafico of

392
00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:56,400
the Franco regime, whose personnel were politically screened and which

393
00:23:56,440 --> 00:24:00,279
were equipped with adequate transportation and telecommunications to inter being

394
00:24:00,319 --> 00:24:03,000
in major political disturbances. Well, I mean that makes sense.

395
00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:05,440
I mean it's you have to love.

396
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:08,200
Speaker 2: A man who made sure even his meters mads were loyal,

397
00:24:08,480 --> 00:24:11,799
was an elite, loyal force ready to defeat the communists.

398
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:16,119
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's I have no I'm not shocked

399
00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:18,240
at all to learn this, and I had never learned

400
00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:19,240
this before. So yeah.

401
00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:21,599
Speaker 2: Part of what goes along when in cases like the

402
00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:24,720
Franco example is it's used in part as a way

403
00:24:24,759 --> 00:24:28,640
when you demobilize long term professionals or you want to

404
00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:31,079
take like you said, NCOs who would be retirement age,

405
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:32,880
who you want to keep in the system. Some way,

406
00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:35,279
it becomes a place where you can put loyal people

407
00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:38,160
where they're not really out to pastor they're still doing

408
00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:41,720
work for community, but they're not, you know, just completely

409
00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:43,440
disconnected for the system.

410
00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:47,599
Speaker 1: A detailed analysis of our target country's police system will

411
00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:51,279
probably reveal a problem of composition. After dividing the police

412
00:24:51,279 --> 00:24:54,200
force into so called hard and soft forces, we may

413
00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:59,000
find sizeable hard subdivisions within the soft elements. Our brief

414
00:24:59,039 --> 00:25:01,119
survey has shown that only a small part of the

415
00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:04,079
police force is likely be able to intervene against us,

416
00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:06,759
and of this a yet smaller part is likely to

417
00:25:06,759 --> 00:25:10,160
do so with any enthusiasm. The natural inclination of the

418
00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:13,160
police will be to ride out the crisis, and as individuals,

419
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:17,519
to avoid endangering their positions because of their possible future employers.

420
00:25:18,039 --> 00:25:20,599
The coup may well be planned as a military operation,

421
00:25:21,079 --> 00:25:24,400
but it will not unless partially or totally unsuccessful, involve

422
00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:27,960
any actual fighting. Thus, the fact that the police are

423
00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:31,319
not heavily armed does not fundamentally explain their low intervention

424
00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:35,160
capability as compared to the army. The real difference between

425
00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:37,920
the two is in their degree of integration in the

426
00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:42,000
civil society. While the army can develop a corporate ideology

427
00:25:42,039 --> 00:25:44,759
and mentality that is divergent or even opposed to the

428
00:25:44,799 --> 00:25:48,240
civilian one, the police are usually too intimately involved in

429
00:25:48,279 --> 00:25:53,039
civilian life to do so. This can be either an

430
00:25:53,079 --> 00:25:55,680
advantage or an obstacle from our point of view. On

431
00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:58,160
the one hand, the eccentricity of the army will mean

432
00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:00,759
that a regime can retain its appeace in the closed

433
00:26:00,759 --> 00:26:04,640
world of the military barracks after losing it in society

434
00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:08,119
at large. This might interfere with our recruiting, but it

435
00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:11,079
could work the other way, i e. We may find

436
00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:14,519
that the army is fundamentally opposed to a government that

437
00:26:14,599 --> 00:26:19,000
much civilian opinion accepts recruiting our forces among the police

438
00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:22,680
will almost always be more difficult than in the army. First,

439
00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:26,400
the lower level of automatic discipline will mean that recruiting

440
00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:29,400
an officer may not only may not bring over the

441
00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:32,599
officers men as well. Further, the fact that police live

442
00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:35,400
among the public will mean the internal dynamics generated in

443
00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:38,160
the closed world of a military unit would be dissipated

444
00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:41,039
in this more open environment, and the snowball effect that

445
00:26:41,079 --> 00:26:44,119
would bring entire units over to US after a limited

446
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:48,200
degree of infiltration will not operate. All these factors point

447
00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:51,759
in the same direction. The low degree of intervention capability

448
00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:55,079
for US as well as against US, and the difficulty

449
00:26:55,079 --> 00:26:59,319
of incorporation both indicate that while the army should be penetrated,

450
00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:02,920
the police force can be dealt with defensively after the

451
00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:09,079
coup neutralizing the security agencies. The security agencies of our

452
00:27:09,079 --> 00:27:12,480
target country can be numerically the smallest of the professional

453
00:27:12,559 --> 00:27:15,920
defenses of the state, but often also the most dangerous.

454
00:27:16,519 --> 00:27:19,200
Unlike the armed forces and the police, the security agencies

455
00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:22,319
will be actively trying to identify and defeat threats posed

456
00:27:22,319 --> 00:27:25,440
by groups such as ours. Unlike the armed forces and police,

457
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:29,559
their organizations, deployment, and personnel cannot usually be studied with

458
00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:32,920
precision from the outside, and even their existence may not

459
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:36,240
be known to us. Almost every state has some sort

460
00:27:36,279 --> 00:27:40,799
of secret service. Many have several such organizations that operate

461
00:27:40,839 --> 00:27:44,359
both within and outside the national territory, and which we

462
00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:47,880
have so far described with the blanket term of security agencies.

463
00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:51,519
Our first task is to try to identify them more precisely.

464
00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:54,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, before you go on, I was just to say

465
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:57,000
this section is a good example of why anytime there's

466
00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:01,160
a massive political opposition ors something that looks poised to

467
00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:06,559
take over administration of a state, you see bureaucratic and

468
00:28:07,039 --> 00:28:11,079
rhetorical argument about why people are doing that. You know,

469
00:28:11,160 --> 00:28:13,839
anytime there's any effort by the Trump administration to change

470
00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:18,640
anything with intelligence or yeah, security agencies, they always accused

471
00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:21,759
him of wanting to be Hitler. Never mind that, you know,

472
00:28:21,839 --> 00:28:24,839
the left talks, you know, so much about how they've

473
00:28:24,839 --> 00:28:27,559
spread the EI programs through the c Yeah, through the

474
00:28:27,559 --> 00:28:32,079
CIA and other agencies. So yeah, obviously we're probably not

475
00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:33,960
going to be doing a whop anytime too. But this,

476
00:28:34,279 --> 00:28:37,039
you know, gives us an important lens to look through

477
00:28:37,319 --> 00:28:41,440
just the all the rhetor that's associated with any kind

478
00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:43,759
of change in these organizations that we see right now.

479
00:28:45,039 --> 00:28:47,240
Speaker 1: It is well known that the bureaucratic animal and its

480
00:28:47,319 --> 00:28:51,160
natural state, has certain characteristic patterns of behavior. It grows

481
00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:53,880
in size and extends its sphere of action until checked

482
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:57,400
by some outside force. This role is usually played by

483
00:28:57,400 --> 00:29:01,319
the financial bureaucracy, which fulfills its instincts by opposing the

484
00:29:01,359 --> 00:29:05,599
growth of all other bureaucratic organizations. Equally important as a

485
00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:10,680
limiting factor is the concerted pressure of individual bureaucracies, each

486
00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:13,559
of which is fighting to preserve and extend its territory.

487
00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:16,839
The cumulative effect of these pressures is to limit, to

488
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:19,839
some extent, the growth of the bureaucracy as a whole.

489
00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:23,759
Perhaps without them, all the inhabitants of developed countries would

490
00:29:24,119 --> 00:29:28,680
by now be employed by the state bureaucracy. These pressures

491
00:29:28,720 --> 00:29:31,039
operate weekly or not at all. In the case of

492
00:29:31,079 --> 00:29:34,839
the security services, their budgets are usually secret, so they

493
00:29:34,839 --> 00:29:39,599
cannot easily be scrutinized, let alone reduced. Other bureaucratic organizations

494
00:29:39,599 --> 00:29:43,200
cannot prevent them from poaching in their territories because their

495
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:47,880
activities may go undetected, and thus cannot be declared off limits. Finally,

496
00:29:48,039 --> 00:29:52,160
the relative prestige of undercover operations of all kinds allows

497
00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:55,759
them to break rules other bureaucrats must obey, and to

498
00:29:55,799 --> 00:29:58,799
operate in all areas of social activity. The results of

499
00:29:58,839 --> 00:30:02,319
this freedom is predictable. In many countries, security agencies have

500
00:30:02,359 --> 00:30:05,240
grown in a more dynamic and disorderly fashion than the

501
00:30:05,319 --> 00:30:08,720
rest of the bureaucracy, and tend to have overlapping spheres

502
00:30:08,759 --> 00:30:13,400
of activity. Before a zoologist studies animals, heat or she

503
00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:16,759
classifies them and tries to relate them to the nearest

504
00:30:16,759 --> 00:30:19,920
known species, we will not follow this procedure. Both than

505
00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:24,039
functional terms, which are generally applicable to all countries, and

506
00:30:24,119 --> 00:30:29,839
in organizational terms, which are peculiar to each one. The

507
00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:34,920
pure intelligence function this classification covers the collection and analysis

508
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:39,079
of published and unpublished information of all kinds, and because

509
00:30:39,079 --> 00:30:42,519
of the high degree of specialized knowledge often required, many

510
00:30:42,519 --> 00:30:45,200
different bodies can enter into this field, which is the

511
00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:49,319
most crowded of the whole sector. Tactical military intelligence, which

512
00:30:49,359 --> 00:30:52,319
answers the question what is the opposition doing, may be

513
00:30:52,359 --> 00:30:55,440
collected by separate agencies working for the separate branches of

514
00:30:55,480 --> 00:31:00,279
the armed forces in traditionally seafaring nations. Naval intelligence is

515
00:31:00,319 --> 00:31:04,359
often the largest and most developed service. Strategic information, which

516
00:31:04,359 --> 00:31:07,640
answers the question what is the opposition? Planning may be

517
00:31:07,759 --> 00:31:11,000
the province of separate and competing agencies run by the

518
00:31:11,039 --> 00:31:14,519
General Staff, the Defense Ministry, and the Ministry in charge

519
00:31:14,519 --> 00:31:18,079
of Foreign Affairs. Scientific information may be collected by the

520
00:31:18,119 --> 00:31:21,880
administrative entity in charge of science, and also by specialized

521
00:31:21,920 --> 00:31:26,920
bodies in charge of particular sectors, including atomic energy, peronautics,

522
00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:31,559
and telecommunications. Economic intelligence is one of the worst areas

523
00:31:31,599 --> 00:31:37,279
of duplication, with demographic, energy and agriculture authorities operating alongside

524
00:31:37,279 --> 00:31:41,559
the entity in charge of Economic affairs. In general, political

525
00:31:41,599 --> 00:31:45,359
intelligence may be handled by the Foreign Affairs Ministry openly

526
00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:50,480
through the Diplomatic Service, and also covertly by a separate agency,

527
00:31:52,799 --> 00:31:56,559
the counter intelligence function. This covers the prevention of the

528
00:31:56,559 --> 00:31:59,160
activities listed above, and may be carried out by both

529
00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:03,480
generalized and specialized bodies. The military may run their own

530
00:32:03,519 --> 00:32:05,799
agency and the police of each branch of the Armed

531
00:32:05,839 --> 00:32:10,359
forces and may do the same. The Ministry of Interior

532
00:32:10,559 --> 00:32:14,440
will almost always have a spycatching service, like the Secret Service,

533
00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:18,799
popularly MI five of the British Home Office and particular

534
00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:22,599
bodies will have a service to protect their installations, but

535
00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:26,039
these rarely go beyond the ordinary police stage. From our

536
00:32:26,079 --> 00:32:28,880
point of view, this sector will be the most important.

537
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:32,119
We may, if we fail to preserve our security position,

538
00:32:32,279 --> 00:32:35,640
come into contact with a the police agencies such as

539
00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:39,039
Special Branch of the United Kingdom or the FBI in

540
00:32:39,079 --> 00:32:43,039
the United States, be the separate ministerial body or c

541
00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:47,720
the military agencies. Much of our planning infiltration work will

542
00:32:47,759 --> 00:32:50,680
be indistinguishable from that which could be carried out by

543
00:32:50,720 --> 00:32:54,720
foreign intelligence service. Therefore, it will enter into the territory

544
00:32:54,759 --> 00:32:57,240
of the counter intelligence agencies.

545
00:32:57,119 --> 00:32:59,759
Speaker 2: Which is why they talk about us as if we are.

546
00:32:59,720 --> 00:33:00,039
Speaker 3: The key.

547
00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:05,400
Speaker 1: The counter espionage function. This is the most subtle and

548
00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:09,359
sophisticated of all the functions. It covers deliberate contacts with

549
00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:13,960
opposition intelligence services in order to feed them disinformation and

550
00:33:14,039 --> 00:33:18,160
penetrate or even disrupt their organization. It is unlikely that

551
00:33:18,200 --> 00:33:20,759
more than one agency carries out this work because it

552
00:33:20,799 --> 00:33:25,720
requires an extremely precise control over operations. The agency may

553
00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:28,599
be a subsection of any of those mentioned above, but

554
00:33:28,680 --> 00:33:31,279
in order to function efficiently, it must be able to

555
00:33:31,279 --> 00:33:35,519
exercise some form of control over all competing agencies, especially

556
00:33:35,599 --> 00:33:39,359
over counter intelligence, which relates to counter espionage as a

557
00:33:39,359 --> 00:33:41,079
butcher does to a surgeon.

558
00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:45,039
Speaker 2: This is one of the routine complaints about the United

559
00:33:45,039 --> 00:33:48,920
States is we don't necessarily do counterintelligence counter espionage very well,

560
00:33:49,359 --> 00:33:52,920
to the point that the CIA routinely stumbles over the

561
00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:56,119
FBI and the different military services.

562
00:33:57,680 --> 00:34:02,160
Speaker 1: Internal political security this is another sensitive area from our

563
00:34:02,200 --> 00:34:04,759
point of view. Its specific function is the prevention of

564
00:34:04,799 --> 00:34:08,039
exactly what we aim to do, overthrow the government. In

565
00:34:08,079 --> 00:34:11,280
many countries there is a political police with it both

566
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:15,519
unin form, with both uniforms and covert agents, and it

567
00:34:15,559 --> 00:34:18,000
may be controlled by the bureaucracy of the Ministry of

568
00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:21,880
the Interior or by the inner political leadership, either directly

569
00:34:22,079 --> 00:34:26,719
or in one party states through the party. Elsewhere, in

570
00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:30,639
more or less democratic regimes, the police have a political department,

571
00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:33,719
as in France, Italy and Germany, and its primary function

572
00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:37,599
is the surveillance of extremist groups. In military dictatorships, the

573
00:34:37,679 --> 00:34:41,480
territory of military intelligence often extends to this area. In

574
00:34:41,519 --> 00:34:44,159
some countries, the agency in charge of the physical protection

575
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:47,400
of the higher leadership may be running an information service

576
00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:49,800
as well as providing the bodyguards.

577
00:34:50,559 --> 00:34:53,599
Speaker 2: These exist in basically all modern states. Don't think just

578
00:34:53,599 --> 00:34:57,039
because we're in the West they don't have them. Now Germany, famously,

579
00:34:57,079 --> 00:34:59,920
the federal government along with all the states, have counterintelligence

580
00:35:00,039 --> 00:35:04,559
agencies that basically exist to hunt down the neo Nazis.

581
00:35:05,039 --> 00:35:09,519
Never mind the last ones are pushing one hundred. So yeah,

582
00:35:09,559 --> 00:35:13,199
these exist everywhere, even though they're not advertised and it

583
00:35:13,199 --> 00:35:15,400
doesn't seem like something Western democracy would have.

584
00:35:17,280 --> 00:35:21,239
Speaker 1: Internal intelligence, this function is carried out by the information

585
00:35:21,400 --> 00:35:25,800
services attached to the police and paramilitary forces of the state. Thus,

586
00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:30,840
in Italy, apart from the police public it is which

587
00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:35,239
has a political squad, the paramilitary.

588
00:35:33,920 --> 00:35:39,719
Speaker 2: Carab Carbinary, it just means.

589
00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:44,559
Speaker 1: Carbonary has an internal security information service that is also

590
00:35:44,639 --> 00:35:49,559
responsible for military counter intelligence, but primarily operates internally these days,

591
00:35:49,559 --> 00:35:53,280
mostly against Islamic terrorism. Our behavior in the midst of

592
00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:56,400
this bureaucratic jungle will be purely defensive unless we have

593
00:35:56,440 --> 00:35:59,599
a direct line to one or another of the security agencies.

594
00:35:59,800 --> 00:35:59,920
Speaker 2: If.

595
00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:02,480
Speaker 1: If that is the case, the security agency concern would

596
00:36:02,480 --> 00:36:05,960
provide an ideal cover for all our activities. Failing such

597
00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:09,360
a fortunate coincidence, we will not try to create a

598
00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:13,079
direct line by infiltrating any security service, because if we

599
00:36:13,159 --> 00:36:15,800
do so, there will be the very great danger that

600
00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:19,119
they will use they will use any contact in order

601
00:36:19,119 --> 00:36:22,320
to infiltrate us. This is a standard procedure for the

602
00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:25,880
security services to follow, and the elementary defensive techniques used

603
00:36:25,880 --> 00:36:29,440
when infiltrating the armed forces cut out one way communication

604
00:36:30,119 --> 00:36:35,039
will probably fail to work in their case. In order

605
00:36:35,079 --> 00:36:38,000
to run a secure operation, we will follow rules that

606
00:36:38,079 --> 00:36:41,000
derive from the basic assumption that all information about our

607
00:36:41,000 --> 00:36:43,320
activities is a source of danger as soon as it

608
00:36:43,360 --> 00:36:46,960
exists outside the minds of our inner group. From this

609
00:36:47,280 --> 00:36:51,559
all the standard procedures emerged. No information will be communicated

610
00:36:51,559 --> 00:36:55,000
except verbally. No information will be communicated except on a

611
00:36:55,079 --> 00:36:58,199
need to know basis. All communication links from inner to

612
00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:01,599
affiliated members must be on a way a one way basis.

613
00:37:02,079 --> 00:37:04,679
No activity should be carried out by an inner member

614
00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:07,840
if an outer member can do the job. These rules

615
00:37:07,880 --> 00:37:11,679
are simple and well known. The problem is to keep

616
00:37:11,719 --> 00:37:14,880
to them under the pressure of work and emotions it generates.

617
00:37:15,159 --> 00:37:17,880
The most sensitive of our activities will be the approach

618
00:37:17,920 --> 00:37:20,599
and persuasion of new affiliates to the coup and the

619
00:37:20,679 --> 00:37:23,800
nature of the security agencies can add an extra measure

620
00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:26,840
of danger. In many countries, some of the security agencies

621
00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:32,920
are hidden with in totally unexciting administrative bodies, where as

622
00:37:32,920 --> 00:37:35,880
in the case of the US Treasury Secret Service, this

623
00:37:35,920 --> 00:37:41,199
reflects an administrative convenience. The fact is well known Elsewhere, However,

624
00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:45,719
the department within a department system is deliberate. Consequently, we

625
00:37:45,800 --> 00:37:49,280
may unwillingly try to infiltrate a safe department and discover

626
00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:52,360
that we are dealing with a security agency. All we

627
00:37:52,440 --> 00:37:55,440
can do is to list some of the places where

628
00:37:55,440 --> 00:37:59,280
it seems natural for security services to exist, Census and

629
00:37:59,320 --> 00:38:04,760
cartography services, central bank, anti counterfeiting agencies, post office departments,

630
00:38:05,119 --> 00:38:09,480
press bureaus, customs and immigration departments, and the taxation authorities.

631
00:38:10,079 --> 00:38:12,880
It must not be thought, however, that our entire operation

632
00:38:12,960 --> 00:38:17,079
will automatically collapse if it is penetrated by a security agency.

633
00:38:17,599 --> 00:38:20,800
Speaker 2: Just on the note about security agencies being stuffed inside

634
00:38:20,800 --> 00:38:24,400
of you know, normal agencies. One of the weirdest examples

635
00:38:24,400 --> 00:38:27,320
I can think of is at one point Swiss intelligence

636
00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:30,159
agency was run by their post office.

637
00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:36,360
Speaker 1: So that makes sense, I mean, nobody would accept expect that.

638
00:38:36,599 --> 00:38:39,159
Speaker 2: Yeah, and if it's a country that has universal manhood

639
00:38:39,159 --> 00:38:41,639
conscription if everybody is a soldier, it's not hard to

640
00:38:41,639 --> 00:38:45,320
find competent people with you know, that kind of leadership

641
00:38:45,480 --> 00:38:47,519
to be in another agency.

642
00:38:48,199 --> 00:38:52,239
Speaker 1: That makes sense. If we have followed the security procedures,

643
00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:54,639
the chances are that only a small part of our

644
00:38:54,679 --> 00:38:58,079
total effort will be identified, and therefore its ultimate purpose

645
00:38:58,199 --> 00:39:00,880
may not be discovered. Even if it has discovered that

646
00:39:00,920 --> 00:39:04,119
a coup is being planned, the security agency may wait

647
00:39:04,239 --> 00:39:07,599
before taking any action in order to capture all the planners,

648
00:39:07,800 --> 00:39:10,800
and this could be too late. As soon as our

649
00:39:10,840 --> 00:39:13,840
teams are on the road actually executing the coup, it

650
00:39:13,840 --> 00:39:16,400
will be too late for the security services to oppose

651
00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:19,480
us on the information side. While they're fighting, power will

652
00:39:19,599 --> 00:39:23,480
usually be unimportant as compared to the army units we

653
00:39:23,559 --> 00:39:28,400
have incorporated. Finally, political security agencies are necessarily sensitive to

654
00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:31,599
political trends, and they may decide to join the group

655
00:39:31,639 --> 00:39:34,599
planning a coup if they know that it is well

656
00:39:34,719 --> 00:39:38,960
organized and ready to seize power. All right, that's the

657
00:39:39,039 --> 00:39:39,840
end of chapter.

658
00:39:39,639 --> 00:39:41,920
Speaker 2: Three, and that was a really painful chapter.

659
00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:45,840
Speaker 1: Well thanks for joining me on this one. I really

660
00:39:45,920 --> 00:39:49,199
appreciate it because I know you, I know you have

661
00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:54,679
to run, so yeah, yeah, take care of yourself. Thanks, Thanks,

662
00:39:55,079 --> 00:40:00,239
I appreciate it. I want to welcome everyone to part

663
00:40:00,360 --> 00:40:05,000
seven of my reading of kud Ta by Edward look Weck.

664
00:40:06,480 --> 00:40:09,320
Christopher Sandbatch is back. How are you doing, mister Sandbatch?

665
00:40:10,159 --> 00:40:10,639
Speaker 3: Pretty good.

666
00:40:10,719 --> 00:40:13,800
Speaker 4: It's like I'm like, I'm like the I've been this

667
00:40:13,880 --> 00:40:16,760
place since the beginning of time almost, I'm like the

668
00:40:16,920 --> 00:40:20,480
Warren ze Vinne of the of like the right wing ecosystem.

669
00:40:21,159 --> 00:40:23,639
He used to go to Letterman and like he would

670
00:40:23,719 --> 00:40:25,840
he would play a letterman when Paul Shaper would like,

671
00:40:25,880 --> 00:40:28,079
wanted the night off or something. You can't get anybody else,

672
00:40:28,119 --> 00:40:28,880
Go get Sandbatch.

673
00:40:31,039 --> 00:40:36,760
Speaker 1: That's funny that I you were my specific choice for this.

674
00:40:37,079 --> 00:40:40,559
All right, So all right, I'm gonna start reading Chapter four.

675
00:40:41,199 --> 00:40:47,199
Cut me off at any time to comment however you wish, ready, Yeah, yeah, yeah,

676
00:40:47,920 --> 00:40:52,440
all right. Chapter four the planning of the Kudeta. Even barricades,

677
00:40:52,480 --> 00:40:55,880
apparently a mechanical element of the uprising, are of significance

678
00:40:55,880 --> 00:41:01,960
in reality, above all, as a moral force. Love Davidovich Bronstein,

679
00:41:03,840 --> 00:41:08,599
otherwise known as Leon Trotsky, he took the He took

680
00:41:08,639 --> 00:41:11,000
the name of the warden of the jail he was

681
00:41:11,039 --> 00:41:14,880
sent to in Siberia. If I remember correctly?

682
00:41:15,320 --> 00:41:17,199
Speaker 4: Is that how that when they all of the old

683
00:41:17,239 --> 00:41:24,119
Bolsheviks had like they had like they had twitter handles basically.

684
00:41:25,039 --> 00:41:25,760
Speaker 1: Well, there was a reason.

685
00:41:26,480 --> 00:41:29,320
Speaker 4: But yeah, Afrigot Trotsky was one of them. I forgot,

686
00:41:29,400 --> 00:41:32,880
like I forgot that wasn't his real name, all right.

687
00:41:34,239 --> 00:41:36,880
Speaker 1: In the early morning of April twenty third, nineteen sixty one,

688
00:41:37,119 --> 00:41:41,440
elements of the first Foreign Legion parachute Regiment seized the

689
00:41:41,480 --> 00:41:44,199
key points of the city of Algiers in the name

690
00:41:44,239 --> 00:41:50,639
of General Maurice is that Chalet, Andre Zeller, Edmond Edmund

691
00:41:50,920 --> 00:41:55,480
Zuhad and Raoul Salon. The four generals, because of their

692
00:41:55,519 --> 00:41:59,039
personal prestige and their position in the French hierarchy, quickly

693
00:41:59,039 --> 00:42:02,679
asserted their control over the local military command and started

694
00:42:02,679 --> 00:42:06,000
to extend their authority over all the armed forces in Algeria.

695
00:42:07,159 --> 00:42:10,079
At this time, the Gaul's government was in the process

696
00:42:10,119 --> 00:42:13,920
of opening negotiations with the Algerian nationalists, and the generals

697
00:42:13,920 --> 00:42:16,159
were determined to replace him with the leader who would

698
00:42:16,239 --> 00:42:20,159
carry the war to a victorious conclusion. The French armed

699
00:42:20,159 --> 00:42:24,000
forces in Algeria were much more powerful than those stationed

700
00:42:24,039 --> 00:42:27,079
in France and Germany, and the four generals were hopeful

701
00:42:27,119 --> 00:42:30,480
that once their allegiance was assured, they would find it

702
00:42:30,559 --> 00:42:34,280
easy to take effective control of the French government, after

703
00:42:34,320 --> 00:42:35,639
all Degall himself had.

704
00:42:37,159 --> 00:42:40,119
Speaker 4: Now, okay, well you get it there now, because I

705
00:42:40,119 --> 00:42:42,519
feel like people might need to know what the hell

706
00:42:42,599 --> 00:42:45,119
is going on in France right now, because this seems

707
00:42:45,159 --> 00:42:48,599
like awfully late in the timeline for like, you know,

708
00:42:49,760 --> 00:42:53,440
quadrumvirates of generals to be forming in the African provinces,

709
00:42:54,320 --> 00:42:56,440
which is what's happening here, you.

710
00:42:56,400 --> 00:42:58,000
Speaker 3: Know, and.

711
00:43:00,280 --> 00:43:03,639
Speaker 4: This is France's form of This is France's own personal

712
00:43:03,679 --> 00:43:08,639
struggle with with decolonization that's playing out in front of

713
00:43:08,719 --> 00:43:10,320
us right now. And so what's happening is that that

714
00:43:11,079 --> 00:43:16,079
home support in France because of really because of the

715
00:43:16,159 --> 00:43:19,280
rise of an intellectual movement called the New Left and

716
00:43:19,440 --> 00:43:22,079
student and largely driven in the back of student activism.

717
00:43:22,119 --> 00:43:24,760
And you know, whatever those influences are, you can think

718
00:43:24,800 --> 00:43:27,000
of how you figure.

719
00:43:26,760 --> 00:43:27,719
Speaker 3: Out what they are yourself.

720
00:43:28,159 --> 00:43:33,719
Speaker 4: But there's a massive anti colonial movement afoot in you know,

721
00:43:33,880 --> 00:43:36,239
France himself, and Charles de Gaull is in charge of

722
00:43:36,280 --> 00:43:41,519
the country, but you know, he's like he's his return

723
00:43:41,559 --> 00:43:43,599
to power is incredibly dramatic, and we're about to hear

724
00:43:43,639 --> 00:43:47,320
that story, but just to just to let everybody know

725
00:43:47,400 --> 00:43:49,400
that's like things like, this is a western country in

726
00:43:49,400 --> 00:43:52,440
the nineteen sixties. Yeah, France was really wild for a while,

727
00:43:52,519 --> 00:43:56,039
and this is their this is their decolonization event that happens.

728
00:43:56,239 --> 00:43:58,360
If there's a movie based on this. What's the name

729
00:43:58,400 --> 00:43:58,639
of it?

730
00:43:58,760 --> 00:44:03,679
Speaker 3: I can't remember, al like Algerias. Oh Battle of Algiers,

731
00:44:03,679 --> 00:44:04,000
that's it.

732
00:44:04,159 --> 00:44:13,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I'm writing that down. Well, okay, all right onward.

733
00:44:13,920 --> 00:44:16,559
After all, de gall himself had come to power after

734
00:44:16,599 --> 00:44:19,360
a similar episode in May nineteen fifty eight, and there

735
00:44:19,400 --> 00:44:22,480
seemed to be no obstacle to a successful second edition

736
00:44:22,960 --> 00:44:27,320
of the famous Today Mai. When the four generals made

737
00:44:27,360 --> 00:44:31,760
their declaration over Algiers radio, the first fourteenth and eighteenth

738
00:44:32,079 --> 00:44:37,360
Colonial parachute regiments rallied to the coup. A few entry units,

739
00:44:37,360 --> 00:44:39,599
some of the Marines, and much of the air force

740
00:44:39,679 --> 00:44:42,840
remained loyal to the Gaul. As in May nineteen fifty eight,

741
00:44:42,880 --> 00:44:45,960
they had remained loyal to the Fourth Republic, but most

742
00:44:45,960 --> 00:44:49,679
of the armed forces in Algeria were a tenti stay,

743
00:44:50,920 --> 00:44:53,960
wait and see is the attitude that usually favors a coup,

744
00:44:54,400 --> 00:44:58,920
and when General Henri de Pouli withdrew his headquarters in

745
00:44:59,000 --> 00:45:05,000
Algeria from r to Lemsen to avoid having to choose

746
00:45:05,039 --> 00:45:08,960
between fighting and joining the coup. He was objectively favoring

747
00:45:09,280 --> 00:45:12,920
the coup. The four generals seem to be on the

748
00:45:13,000 --> 00:45:18,840
verge of victory. The determined pied Noir population of Algeria

749
00:45:18,960 --> 00:45:22,400
was one hundred percent behind them. The powerful parachute units

750
00:45:22,440 --> 00:45:25,559
gave them a hard hitting force of intervention, and the

751
00:45:25,559 --> 00:45:29,000
bulk of the armed forces were either for them or neutral.

752
00:45:30,239 --> 00:45:33,119
Even the forces loyal to Degaul's government did nothing to

753
00:45:33,280 --> 00:45:34,960
actively oppose the coup.

754
00:45:36,199 --> 00:45:38,400
Speaker 4: All right, So, like, let's talk about what happened here

755
00:45:38,480 --> 00:45:40,920
real quick. So, like what he's done here, since this

756
00:45:41,000 --> 00:45:44,559
is Luptak, he's setting up the game conditions that he's

757
00:45:44,599 --> 00:45:46,199
going to be playing around when for the rest of

758
00:45:46,239 --> 00:45:49,639
this chapter he's talking about this is the point.

759
00:45:49,440 --> 00:45:50,039
Speaker 3: In the flow chart.

760
00:45:50,199 --> 00:45:52,599
Speaker 4: Is kind of joking. He's trolling you a little bit

761
00:45:52,599 --> 00:45:55,199
that it comes so late in the actual and so

762
00:45:55,320 --> 00:45:57,599
late in the actual book. You would think maybe the

763
00:45:57,719 --> 00:45:58,559
chapter says.

764
00:45:58,360 --> 00:45:58,960
Speaker 3: So do you use it?

765
00:45:59,039 --> 00:46:01,800
Speaker 4: Do you need to plan a who is maybe the

766
00:46:01,800 --> 00:46:04,000
first chapter? But no, it's the fourth one here and

767
00:46:04,519 --> 00:46:09,239
this is the real the issue. The to the game

768
00:46:09,360 --> 00:46:12,239
situation he's setting up here for us is he's given

769
00:46:12,320 --> 00:46:15,159
us a classical setup. Okay, this is like, you know,

770
00:46:15,199 --> 00:46:17,880
imagine the chess game. He's describing a chess game for

771
00:46:18,000 --> 00:46:22,559
us according to all previous and at the time, according

772
00:46:22,559 --> 00:46:28,280
to at the time, according to all previous previous classical formula,

773
00:46:28,320 --> 00:46:32,320
you know, formulations of politics. You have enough information right

774
00:46:32,320 --> 00:46:35,920
here to determine whether or not you should do a coup.

775
00:46:36,599 --> 00:46:40,360
Speaker 3: Okay. And so he's and for the.

776
00:46:40,320 --> 00:46:43,880
Speaker 4: Purposes of opening of his like opening barrage in this chapter,

777
00:46:43,960 --> 00:46:48,239
he's chosen to set up two separate instances of this

778
00:46:48,400 --> 00:46:52,119
like terribly classical gain like I used to phrase quadrum

779
00:46:52,920 --> 00:46:56,159
quadrum for a reason like this has been described to

780
00:46:56,239 --> 00:46:58,880
us like given describes the doubt, decline and follow the

781
00:46:58,960 --> 00:47:03,159
Roman Empire. These are Roman conditions are in play, Okay,

782
00:47:03,440 --> 00:47:05,360
And he's like setting up this idea.

783
00:47:05,400 --> 00:47:07,000
Speaker 3: So he's setting up this equivalence here.

784
00:47:07,039 --> 00:47:09,440
Speaker 4: So if you're these four generals, and again, the political

785
00:47:09,440 --> 00:47:13,239
conditions here are there's a movement at home in favor

786
00:47:13,320 --> 00:47:17,159
of decolonizing. But the like the French hard right, and

787
00:47:17,199 --> 00:47:20,400
this is where like the actual new French hard right

788
00:47:20,400 --> 00:47:21,320
has kind of been born.

789
00:47:21,840 --> 00:47:22,320
Speaker 3: But the.

790
00:47:23,840 --> 00:47:27,119
Speaker 4: French hard right is most of the military structure, and

791
00:47:27,119 --> 00:47:29,599
the military structure in France is way bigger politically than

792
00:47:29,679 --> 00:47:32,599
most people probably think it is. And they have chosen,

793
00:47:33,119 --> 00:47:35,519
you know, a pro to take a pro imperial stance,

794
00:47:36,039 --> 00:47:39,039
and they've actually done a coup in Algeria. So this

795
00:47:38,639 --> 00:47:41,760
is this is what's going on. They're they're trying, and

796
00:47:42,119 --> 00:47:45,800
their play is this thing that happened in nineteen fifty eight.

797
00:47:45,679 --> 00:47:48,280
Speaker 3: That brought Charles de gaul back to power. You know.

798
00:47:48,360 --> 00:47:50,320
Speaker 4: DeGaulle had been in power in World War Two and

799
00:47:50,400 --> 00:47:52,000
he's out for a while and then he gets brought

800
00:47:52,079 --> 00:47:55,880
back to power in this very similar like sort of situation,

801
00:47:56,599 --> 00:47:59,320
you know. And so the thing So what Luke is

802
00:47:59,360 --> 00:48:01,920
here saying, He's like, He's like, okay, so these situations

803
00:48:01,920 --> 00:48:05,400
look similar enough on their face that this coup probably

804
00:48:05,400 --> 00:48:06,679
should have worked, you know.

805
00:48:07,480 --> 00:48:09,199
Speaker 3: But okay now, but back out.

806
00:48:11,119 --> 00:48:15,079
Speaker 1: No problem, all right. While the leaders of the coups

807
00:48:15,440 --> 00:48:18,480
started to gather support, the French Defense Minister was on

808
00:48:18,519 --> 00:48:21,480
a visit to Morocco, Maurice Papon, the head of the

809
00:48:21,519 --> 00:48:25,639
Paris Police, was on vacation. Michel de Bey, the Prime

810
00:48:25,679 --> 00:48:29,360
Minister and chief firefighter of the regime was ill, and

811
00:48:29,440 --> 00:48:34,239
Degal himself was entertaining. The visiting President of Senegal, Leopold S.

812
00:48:34,239 --> 00:48:38,519
Sangor other ministers were on visits to Algiers itself and

813
00:48:38,559 --> 00:48:41,880
were promptly captured and held in confinement together with other

814
00:48:41,960 --> 00:48:46,400
representatives of the president. Everything pointed to an early victory

815
00:48:46,440 --> 00:48:49,199
of the coup, and yet a few days later General

816
00:48:49,280 --> 00:48:54,920
Chalais was being flown to Paris for eventual trial and imprisonment.

817
00:48:55,239 --> 00:48:58,199
Celen and the others were fleeing to the interior on

818
00:48:58,239 --> 00:49:01,000
their way to exile and capture, and the first Foreign

819
00:49:01,079 --> 00:49:04,880
Legion parachute Regiment drove back to their barracks singing Edith

820
00:49:04,920 --> 00:49:09,320
Piaff's no I regret nothing, though their officers were under

821
00:49:09,440 --> 00:49:12,280
arrest and their unit was to be to be disbanded.

822
00:49:13,360 --> 00:49:13,559
Speaker 3: Yeah.

823
00:49:13,559 --> 00:49:15,559
Speaker 4: I had nothing to add to that except just like

824
00:49:15,719 --> 00:49:19,159
just pause for a minute to meyer how metal that sentences,

825
00:49:19,199 --> 00:49:22,760
Like that whole paragraph is like I can't I can't

826
00:49:22,840 --> 00:49:25,760
stand when people get like get really pissy about France

827
00:49:25,800 --> 00:49:28,679
and like France says the most insane shit imaginable.

828
00:49:31,400 --> 00:49:34,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, when people start talking about, oh, oh I bought

829
00:49:34,880 --> 00:49:38,199
a French I bought a French war rifle only dropped once.

830
00:49:38,400 --> 00:49:42,920
It's like yeah, okay, yeah, keep going, yeah, all right.

831
00:49:44,079 --> 00:49:47,039
Why did the coup fail? Perhaps the main reason was

832
00:49:47,079 --> 00:49:50,159
that the four generals had utterly neglected the political forces

833
00:49:50,199 --> 00:49:53,079
and had allowed the immediate power of the armed forces

834
00:49:53,119 --> 00:49:57,000
to obscure the somewhat less immediate but ultimately decisive role

835
00:49:57,079 --> 00:49:59,880
that they could play. In the Gauless coup of me

836
00:50:00,000 --> 00:50:02,480
in nineteen fifty eight. The action of the military and

837
00:50:02,519 --> 00:50:06,000
the population of Algiers had been supported by the Gauleist

838
00:50:06,039 --> 00:50:09,760
infiltration of the civil service and by the steady corrosion

839
00:50:09,800 --> 00:50:12,559
of the will of other political groups to oppose the

840
00:50:12,599 --> 00:50:16,400
dissolution of the Fourth Republic. This time, the generals had

841
00:50:16,440 --> 00:50:22,599
simply ignored the civilians to Gaulwin on television and asked

842
00:50:22,639 --> 00:50:25,840
for help from the population at large. Francie Francis ade

843
00:50:25,960 --> 00:50:31,239
Mois Deborah, who followed Debaert, who followed him on the screen,

844
00:50:31,519 --> 00:50:34,880
was more specific go to the airports, convinced the soldiers

845
00:50:34,880 --> 00:50:38,199
who are misled. He also started to arm a militia

846
00:50:38,280 --> 00:50:41,679
drawn from the Gauleist party. More important, the trade union

847
00:50:41,760 --> 00:50:45,840
organizations of the Communists CGT, the Christian Democrats c FTC

848
00:50:46,360 --> 00:50:50,480
and the Force Auverre all rallied around the government, while

849
00:50:50,559 --> 00:50:53,679
most political parties did the same. The left wing Catholic

850
00:50:53,760 --> 00:50:56,639
movement started to organize sit down strikes among the national

851
00:50:56,679 --> 00:51:01,360
servicemen in Algeria, and in general, most organized forces of

852
00:51:01,400 --> 00:51:05,159
French society intervened and refused to accept the authority of

853
00:51:05,199 --> 00:51:05,639
the coup.

854
00:51:07,480 --> 00:51:09,480
Speaker 3: All right, so like here, what's going on? Late?

855
00:51:09,800 --> 00:51:15,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, here, what's going on is like he's introducing we've okay,

856
00:51:15,360 --> 00:51:17,800
so we've established this coup doesn't work. It's like, okay,

857
00:51:18,519 --> 00:51:21,440
what was the tell? Okay? And he says, all right,

858
00:51:22,239 --> 00:51:25,440
this is a very like in this style of scholarship,

859
00:51:25,480 --> 00:51:27,440
this is really it does. It goes all the way

860
00:51:27,440 --> 00:51:30,079
back to Machiavelli. Actually, it's like, well, i'll tell you what.

861
00:51:30,559 --> 00:51:33,239
Here's what I didn't tell you already, and then surrenders

862
00:51:33,280 --> 00:51:35,400
another piece of information. He goes, all right, so we

863
00:51:35,559 --> 00:51:39,760
know that there was infiltration on the part on the

864
00:51:39,800 --> 00:51:43,119
part of the Degaullists in nineteen fifty eight, and these

865
00:51:43,159 --> 00:51:46,599
four generals have just ignored that conclusion, you know. Okay,

866
00:51:46,800 --> 00:51:50,159
So the thing that we're meant to the thing that's

867
00:51:50,159 --> 00:51:53,119
meant to happen here is we're meant to be totally

868
00:51:53,280 --> 00:51:57,239
actually snapped out of what would be considered classical analysis

869
00:51:57,280 --> 00:52:00,239
at this point. Okay, so this is like those rules

870
00:52:00,280 --> 00:52:03,400
don't work anymore, and this is actually this is one

871
00:52:03,400 --> 00:52:05,239
of the reasons Lukevax has been able to get away

872
00:52:05,239 --> 00:52:08,280
with being such a rock stars, because he represents this

873
00:52:08,400 --> 00:52:11,519
turn in this field at a time when this is

874
00:52:11,559 --> 00:52:17,199
becoming a dominant paradigm across like any sort of like

875
00:52:17,320 --> 00:52:20,880
intellectual field, like the rise of game theory and uncertainty,

876
00:52:21,039 --> 00:52:24,360
the big thing of the biggest thing in the twentieth century.

877
00:52:24,360 --> 00:52:26,400
I just want to say, up until now, we've looked

878
00:52:26,400 --> 00:52:29,800
at you know, we've looked at everything in terms of

879
00:52:29,840 --> 00:52:32,719
like some sort of like Newtonian mechanical system. But we

880
00:52:32,880 --> 00:52:36,960
actually need a relative Okay, you know, because it's okay,

881
00:52:37,039 --> 00:52:39,559
these conditions are not objective.

882
00:52:39,880 --> 00:52:42,440
Speaker 3: There's stuff. There is stuff there.

883
00:52:42,599 --> 00:52:47,480
Speaker 4: What you call unknown unknowns is what you know, Lukefax's

884
00:52:47,559 --> 00:52:52,039
friend and compatriot, Donald Rumsfeldt would later call them. So

885
00:52:52,079 --> 00:52:56,599
he's introducing the unknown unknowns and he's telling us now

886
00:52:56,639 --> 00:53:01,360
it's like, okay, well, actually this civilian population that is

887
00:53:01,400 --> 00:53:05,199
so scoring so frequently it does actually matter, and this

888
00:53:05,320 --> 00:53:08,199
is how okay, now I'm sorry, I'll put back out.

889
00:53:10,519 --> 00:53:16,119
Speaker 1: No apology necessary. We need we need the we need

890
00:53:16,159 --> 00:53:18,239
the commentary on this.

891
00:53:19,039 --> 00:53:20,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's heavy. It's heavy.

892
00:53:20,559 --> 00:53:23,360
Speaker 4: This is a really heavy And actually what's really interesting is,

893
00:53:23,760 --> 00:53:25,360
you know a lot of times you could there's a

894
00:53:25,400 --> 00:53:27,920
tendency to want to read these books like they're like

895
00:53:28,000 --> 00:53:30,719
they're just military manuals or something like this, But this

896
00:53:30,760 --> 00:53:32,880
is actually one of these chapters that you can translate

897
00:53:32,920 --> 00:53:37,760
over directly into thought very well, like and this is

898
00:53:38,400 --> 00:53:40,320
sort of like one of these art of warst style

899
00:53:40,440 --> 00:53:44,360
books that, like investors will tell you is adaptable across

900
00:53:44,400 --> 00:53:49,280
domains because they're so methodologically flexible here and he's doing

901
00:53:49,320 --> 00:53:52,880
a lot of really fancy stuff really fast, and you know,

902
00:53:52,960 --> 00:53:55,239
just teasing it out it's helpful to some people.

903
00:53:55,360 --> 00:53:55,559
Speaker 3: Yeah.

904
00:53:56,480 --> 00:54:00,760
Speaker 1: Yeah. The effect of this refusal was decisive. The larger

905
00:54:00,800 --> 00:54:02,519
part of the wait and see element in the armed

906
00:54:02,519 --> 00:54:05,280
forces stopped waiting and declared its support for de gaul

907
00:54:05,679 --> 00:54:08,039
and this was the end of the coup. We will

908
00:54:08,039 --> 00:54:10,440
only be able to avoid a repetition of the crucial

909
00:54:10,480 --> 00:54:13,000
eraror made by the generals if we can neutralize the

910
00:54:13,079 --> 00:54:19,440
political forces as effectively as to military ones. Immediate political

911
00:54:19,480 --> 00:54:22,719
power is always concentrated in the country's government, but in

912
00:54:22,760 --> 00:54:25,880
every country and under all political systems, there will be

913
00:54:25,920 --> 00:54:29,920
groups outside the government and even outside formal politics, which

914
00:54:30,079 --> 00:54:34,280
also have political power. Their source of strength can be

915
00:54:34,360 --> 00:54:37,719
their ability to influence particular groups of voters, as in

916
00:54:37,760 --> 00:54:42,039
democratic societies, or their control over certain organizations important to

917
00:54:42,079 --> 00:54:45,679
the country's political life. Whether these groups, which we have

918
00:54:45,760 --> 00:54:49,440
called the political forces, are pressure groups, political parties, or

919
00:54:49,480 --> 00:54:54,039
other associations does not greatly matter. What is of importance

920
00:54:54,280 --> 00:54:57,559
is their ability to participate in the formation of governments

921
00:54:57,880 --> 00:55:02,880
and later to influence the decision those governments. The nature

922
00:55:02,920 --> 00:55:04,199
of the force got.

923
00:55:04,800 --> 00:55:06,079
Speaker 3: Yeah, so the group.

924
00:55:06,920 --> 00:55:09,599
Speaker 4: When he's talking here again, you have to remember Luke

925
00:55:09,639 --> 00:55:11,719
Bak as a neo Kon, So you're like listening, this

926
00:55:11,760 --> 00:55:15,239
is like Confessions of a Neo Kon. Hitman is like, really,

927
00:55:15,280 --> 00:55:18,239
what this book is, you know, to one extent or another,

928
00:55:18,280 --> 00:55:21,440
and what Luke Bak is writing here, he's talking really

929
00:55:21,559 --> 00:55:24,360
out of a British context. He's speaking to an American

930
00:55:24,400 --> 00:55:28,440
audience where he's he's always addressing himself to Americans in

931
00:55:28,480 --> 00:55:31,840
some way, but really he's talking about the he's talking

932
00:55:31,840 --> 00:55:37,000
about the British colonial experience in like it's very late stages,

933
00:55:37,119 --> 00:55:38,840
especially in the Middle East. We're going to get it

934
00:55:38,880 --> 00:55:41,559
for it's just to set everything up. This is what

935
00:55:41,599 --> 00:55:43,360
we're really going to get into here, because is when

936
00:55:43,400 --> 00:55:50,360
he's referring to this adberative form of empire. Now that

937
00:55:50,559 --> 00:55:52,679
you know, like he was, he was able to make

938
00:55:52,960 --> 00:55:58,199
classical pronouncements and classical allusions to the you know, sort

939
00:55:58,239 --> 00:56:00,840
of French conditions because the French were two in quadrunveric

940
00:56:00,920 --> 00:56:04,000
things well into the late twentieth century. Now we're going

941
00:56:04,000 --> 00:56:07,000
into a weirder place, and this is the space that

942
00:56:07,119 --> 00:56:10,400
is the British Empire, which has this kind of incredibly

943
00:56:10,559 --> 00:56:15,400
aberrant historical development complex that makes it a little more complicated.

944
00:56:15,400 --> 00:56:17,719
And this is a very normal thing to do in

945
00:56:17,719 --> 00:56:20,719
this tradition. Havebri Moss famously does it as well, and

946
00:56:20,760 --> 00:56:22,320
Habro Moss is one of these guys that's in with

947
00:56:22,440 --> 00:56:25,760
Lupe have Moss. We could always call it the special

948
00:56:25,840 --> 00:56:27,199
case of the British Empire.

949
00:56:28,239 --> 00:56:30,360
Speaker 1: The nature of the force is important in the political

950
00:56:30,400 --> 00:56:33,239
life of a particular country. Will reflect the structure of

951
00:56:33,280 --> 00:56:36,440
its society and economy, and it will also depend on

952
00:56:36,480 --> 00:56:40,360
the particular context of decision making. See table for one

953
00:56:40,400 --> 00:56:44,599
for an American example. If, for example, we were asked

954
00:56:44,599 --> 00:56:48,000
to list the most important forces in British political life,

955
00:56:48,400 --> 00:56:52,000
we could produce the following rather conventional list. The major

956
00:56:52,039 --> 00:56:56,039
political parties, the regional parties, the major unions, the Confederation

957
00:56:56,119 --> 00:57:00,159
of British Industry, the senior civil service, academic complex, the

958
00:57:00,199 --> 00:57:03,199
city and its corporations, and the press.

959
00:57:05,360 --> 00:57:07,960
Speaker 4: It's worth pointing out here that like when he uses this,

960
00:57:08,079 --> 00:57:10,519
he's falling back on the bridges. The British example is

961
00:57:10,519 --> 00:57:13,199
actually simpler than the American one, I guess is like

962
00:57:13,199 --> 00:57:17,079
in Britain in nineteen sixty one, these are relatively big categories.

963
00:57:17,119 --> 00:57:20,239
He's drawn some pretty large mark up blankets. Have the

964
00:57:20,320 --> 00:57:25,559
pit political parties, the major unions, the Confederation of British Industry.

965
00:57:25,880 --> 00:57:28,639
These are these seem hokey now, but this is a time,

966
00:57:28,760 --> 00:57:32,039
like you go, look at the American way more complicated,

967
00:57:32,440 --> 00:57:35,760
But you know, this is a time of the Confederation

968
00:57:35,840 --> 00:57:39,199
of British Industry. It's still a thing that exists, which

969
00:57:39,239 --> 00:57:45,159
is kind of interesting to note. There's no such structure

970
00:57:45,199 --> 00:57:48,239
in the American system. But yeah, go ahead, What.

971
00:57:48,519 --> 00:57:50,559
Speaker 1: Does he say here about the American system. He says,

972
00:57:50,719 --> 00:57:53,760
officially in America, the President and White House staff, the

973
00:57:53,760 --> 00:57:57,039
Department of State, depending on the CIA, a supplier of information,

974
00:57:57,440 --> 00:58:04,039
the key congressional committees. Unofficial politicians for significant Jewish populations,

975
00:58:02,960 --> 00:58:08,280
and these naturally follow a visible pro Israel line on

976
00:58:08,320 --> 00:58:12,599
congressional voting and make appropriate speeches. Pro Zionist organizations of

977
00:58:12,639 --> 00:58:18,519
American Jewry, anti Zionist organizations, including those with a Jewish identity.

978
00:58:19,960 --> 00:58:20,800
That's a great one.

979
00:58:24,760 --> 00:58:26,639
Speaker 3: You have to remember. This book is fun.

980
00:58:26,760 --> 00:58:29,480
Speaker 4: He's having fun, but you know he's just pissed off

981
00:58:29,480 --> 00:58:31,920
in somebody.

982
00:58:32,800 --> 00:58:34,599
Speaker 1: And the last one he says is think tanks and

983
00:58:34,639 --> 00:58:37,559
lobbies with a special interest in Arab or Middle East studies.

984
00:58:38,000 --> 00:58:40,840
They usually identify with Arab views and seek a sympathetic

985
00:58:40,880 --> 00:58:42,320
hearing of Arab claims.

986
00:58:42,920 --> 00:58:45,280
Speaker 4: Now, dude, you know this right here? Okay, I just

987
00:58:45,599 --> 00:58:48,119
it's sort of sand Batches that list that he just

988
00:58:48,159 --> 00:58:50,119
gets you. Look at people are always asking me with the

989
00:58:50,280 --> 00:58:53,360
with the core of sand Batchism is that last one

990
00:58:53,840 --> 00:58:57,159
is the probably one of the key if such a

991
00:58:57,159 --> 00:59:00,719
thing exists. Sand Batch's points, think tanks and lobbies okay,

992
00:59:01,000 --> 00:59:03,920
with you know interest special interested in Arab or Middle

993
00:59:03,920 --> 00:59:06,320
Eastern studies. I just went on the OGC podcast and

994
00:59:06,360 --> 00:59:10,000
did the history of Stanford University, because that is.

995
00:59:10,079 --> 00:59:13,119
Speaker 3: One thing that's really unique to America, to American.

996
00:59:12,719 --> 00:59:17,920
Speaker 4: Political systems, is how important specific industry is, specific universities

997
00:59:17,960 --> 00:59:20,599
and think tanks are in specific fields.

998
00:59:20,800 --> 00:59:23,760
Speaker 3: So it makes us weird. There's like complicated sub domains

999
00:59:23,760 --> 00:59:25,320
and everything. But yeah, I keep going.

1000
00:59:27,400 --> 00:59:29,960
Speaker 1: Back to the British. But if we were asked to

1001
00:59:30,159 --> 00:59:33,559
isolate the groups that would matter in foreign policy decision

1002
00:59:33,639 --> 00:59:36,519
about say the Middle East, we would come up with

1003
00:59:36,639 --> 00:59:40,400
quite a different list. The two major British and part

1004
00:59:40,440 --> 00:59:45,679
British oil companies, the Foreign Office, academic Arabist Group, British

1005
00:59:45,760 --> 00:59:47,559
defense industry exporters.

1006
00:59:48,719 --> 00:59:50,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, like, what do you talk about here?

1007
00:59:50,480 --> 00:59:52,920
Speaker 4: If you like, just again to re orient, there's a

1008
00:59:52,960 --> 00:59:55,199
piece of my blog about this actually where called the

1009
00:59:55,239 --> 00:59:58,599
only two Empires that have ever mattered is about British

1010
00:59:58,599 --> 01:00:01,760
and British and Russian machinations that were going on in

1011
01:00:01,760 --> 01:00:05,440
the late twentieth century and you know Iran mostly, But

1012
01:00:05,519 --> 01:00:07,400
that's what he's talking about here, and this is where

1013
01:00:07,800 --> 01:00:10,360
the this is the origin of the American boondoggle in

1014
01:00:10,400 --> 01:00:14,079
the Middle East. This is the two major British and

1015
01:00:14,280 --> 01:00:17,559
part British its talk about VP, who is like running

1016
01:00:17,639 --> 01:00:21,280
coups out of Iran. Okay, so like what's happened what

1017
01:00:21,679 --> 01:00:23,320
we're talking about here is like, okay, we had this

1018
01:00:23,440 --> 01:00:28,360
list of things that everybody recognizes, like and Jurgen Habermas,

1019
01:00:28,440 --> 01:00:30,480
you know in his like you know, classical, little Frankfort,

1020
01:00:30,639 --> 01:00:33,280
you know, Frankfurt School. Everybody's happy, and we have a

1021
01:00:33,320 --> 01:00:36,400
Republic of letters world. That first list of things is

1022
01:00:36,440 --> 01:00:39,039
what contain is what's going on in the colonies, in

1023
01:00:39,079 --> 01:00:42,519
the colony in the Nimbi's in the Nimbi's mind, that's

1024
01:00:42,519 --> 01:00:45,159
what it looks like. And the second list of people

1025
01:00:45,440 --> 01:00:47,679
that gets left off of it, that's the group of

1026
01:00:47,679 --> 01:00:48,559
people that's do.

1027
01:00:48,559 --> 01:00:50,440
Speaker 3: An untold horrible shit.

1028
01:00:50,800 --> 01:00:53,480
Speaker 4: And he's also this is also in a sense you

1029
01:00:53,480 --> 01:00:56,639
have to read this book as his resume to those

1030
01:00:56,679 --> 01:01:01,840
groups asking them to hire him. So there's you know.

1031
01:01:02,599 --> 01:01:05,079
Speaker 1: I mean everything that went down with Iran, I mean

1032
01:01:05,239 --> 01:01:08,840
you can go before before BP went there, I mean,

1033
01:01:08,920 --> 01:01:15,199
the Reuter's family was given minds with precious minerals there

1034
01:01:15,679 --> 01:01:20,039
to watch over. And while they have a while they

1035
01:01:20,039 --> 01:01:24,239
have an international press, uh, while they own the international press.

1036
01:01:24,679 --> 01:01:28,079
So they can basically control anything, but they're also controlling

1037
01:01:28,119 --> 01:01:32,679
these minerals, these rich mineral deposits all over the Middle East.

1038
01:01:33,199 --> 01:01:37,239
I mean, especially in Iran. It's it's it's that history

1039
01:01:37,360 --> 01:01:39,159
is nuts. I think it's a.

1040
01:01:39,119 --> 01:01:43,000
Speaker 4: Lot with Lawrence of Arabia, but also like the Great

1041
01:01:43,039 --> 01:01:44,719
Train Robbery at the same time.

1042
01:01:47,119 --> 01:01:50,599
Speaker 1: All right, In a sophisticated society, with its complex industrial

1043
01:01:50,639 --> 01:01:54,880
and social structure, there are hundreds of organizations that, regardless

1044
01:01:54,880 --> 01:01:58,079
of their primary purpose, also act as pressure groups and

1045
01:01:58,159 --> 01:02:01,760
attempts to influence political decison in a manner that serves

1046
01:02:01,800 --> 01:02:06,760
their members' interests. These organizations will reflect in their divergent

1047
01:02:06,760 --> 01:02:13,000
attitudes the diversity of a complex society. In economically backward countries, however,

1048
01:02:13,079 --> 01:02:17,119
the structure of society is simpler, and any conflict of interests,

1049
01:02:17,559 --> 01:02:20,159
though just as strong, is played out in a much

1050
01:02:20,199 --> 01:02:25,440
smaller arena and with fewer participants. In Sub Saharan Africa,

1051
01:02:25,519 --> 01:02:29,679
with few exceptions, religious groups are generally fragmented and apolitical,

1052
01:02:30,079 --> 01:02:33,159
and where the local business community is still relatively small

1053
01:02:33,199 --> 01:02:36,360
and weak, the major political forces are limited to a

1054
01:02:36,400 --> 01:02:41,760
few groupings, tribal and other ethnic groups, trade unions, students

1055
01:02:41,800 --> 01:02:47,920
and graduates associated students and graduates, associations, civil service officials

1056
01:02:47,920 --> 01:02:51,320
and officers of the armed forces, the activists of the

1057
01:02:51,400 --> 01:02:53,000
ruling political party.

1058
01:02:54,199 --> 01:02:58,400
Speaker 4: It's kind of funny here he's flow low key trolling again,

1059
01:02:58,480 --> 01:03:01,559
he's trolling a specific audience here, he's like pointing out.

1060
01:03:01,599 --> 01:03:05,280
He's like, actually, these companies, these countries you call economically backwards,

1061
01:03:05,639 --> 01:03:09,239
are the ones that more resemble the classical sphere that

1062
01:03:09,320 --> 01:03:12,800
you're like always stammering on about. It was just kind

1063
01:03:12,800 --> 01:03:14,519
of funny.

1064
01:03:15,599 --> 01:03:20,599
Speaker 1: Also, he's highlighting this these five things as African African

1065
01:03:21,320 --> 01:03:25,119
sub Saharan Africans, and it's basically every Central American country

1066
01:03:25,159 --> 01:03:32,800
as well. Yeah, in much of West Africa, one would

1067
01:03:32,800 --> 01:03:36,079
have to add the local market traders association, and in

1068
01:03:36,159 --> 01:03:41,599
immediate sub Saharan areas, the traditional Muslim leadership structures. In Asia,

1069
01:03:41,719 --> 01:03:44,079
religious groups in their leaders would have to be added

1070
01:03:44,119 --> 01:03:47,519
to the lists, and in some countries such as Taiwan, Thailand,

1071
01:03:47,639 --> 01:03:50,599
South Korea, and Hong Kong, the local business class will

1072
01:03:50,599 --> 01:03:54,760
be of importance. Missing from all the lists are the

1073
01:03:55,280 --> 01:03:58,440
are the foreign business interests, which may play an important role,

1074
01:03:58,719 --> 01:04:01,480
but which represent a special problem already dealt with in

1075
01:04:01,559 --> 01:04:06,960
Chapter two. Whatever groups dominate the political scene of our

1076
01:04:07,000 --> 01:04:10,679
country in normal times. The special circumstances of the coup

1077
01:04:10,880 --> 01:04:13,960
will mean that only a few elements among them will

1078
01:04:13,960 --> 01:04:19,719
be important to us. Political forces can intervene against the

1079
01:04:19,760 --> 01:04:23,880
coup in two ways. A they can rally and deploy

1080
01:04:23,920 --> 01:04:27,199
the masses and some or some part of them against

1081
01:04:27,239 --> 01:04:32,800
the new government. Or B they can manipulate technical facilities

1082
01:04:32,920 --> 01:04:36,320
under their control in order to oppose the consolidation of

1083
01:04:36,360 --> 01:04:40,760
our power. When he says manipulate technical facilities, what is

1084
01:04:40,880 --> 01:04:42,880
uh what jumps into your mind there?

1085
01:04:43,519 --> 01:04:47,599
Speaker 4: Well, I mean obvious when he's about using the way

1086
01:04:47,760 --> 01:04:52,320
a really good example of the way. Again, whether or

1087
01:04:52,400 --> 01:04:54,480
you believe they are is and other thing. But the

1088
01:04:54,519 --> 01:04:56,920
media in this country right now believe they're responding to

1089
01:04:56,960 --> 01:04:59,639
a coup in the form of Donald Trump, and the

1090
01:04:59,719 --> 01:05:02,199
way they have behaved the last couple of weeks is

1091
01:05:02,239 --> 01:05:08,719
an excellent example of the of technical technical technical facilities

1092
01:05:08,760 --> 01:05:11,480
under the control of the regime like they have, like

1093
01:05:11,519 --> 01:05:17,800
they've been spinning absolutely off the charts insane shit, just

1094
01:05:17,920 --> 01:05:21,840
because it's an institution that they have control of and

1095
01:05:22,159 --> 01:05:24,280
perceive it as a weapon that can be used. Right now,

1096
01:05:24,639 --> 01:05:27,880
it's the most obvious example of one that I can

1097
01:05:27,920 --> 01:05:29,360
think of the.

1098
01:05:29,320 --> 01:05:34,079
Speaker 1: Action of individual political, religious, ethnic, and intellectual leaders who

1099
01:05:34,159 --> 01:05:36,280
could use the framework of their part of your community

1100
01:05:36,280 --> 01:05:39,400
against us is an example of the first kind of intervention.

1101
01:05:40,000 --> 01:05:43,920
A strike of the staff of the radio and television

1102
01:05:43,960 --> 01:05:47,519
services and is an example of the second. A general

1103
01:05:47,559 --> 01:05:54,679
strike would in effect combine both kinds of intervention, neutralizing

1104
01:05:54,719 --> 01:06:00,920
the political force is one general Politics, like economics, has

1105
01:06:00,960 --> 01:06:05,320
its infrastructure. Just as industry and commerce require a background

1106
01:06:05,360 --> 01:06:09,559
of facilities such as roads, ports, and energy sources, direct

1107
01:06:09,559 --> 01:06:12,639
political action requires certain technical facilities.

1108
01:06:13,519 --> 01:06:14,559
Speaker 3: Now it's really important.

1109
01:06:14,599 --> 01:06:16,719
Speaker 4: This is a way, this is a really important sentence

1110
01:06:16,760 --> 01:06:19,079
right here, because this is what he's doing scepting here

1111
01:06:19,800 --> 01:06:21,280
that I mean when you talk about when I was

1112
01:06:21,280 --> 01:06:24,760
talking earlier about getting out of the classical world entirely,

1113
01:06:24,920 --> 01:06:26,719
this is what he's doing here. He's saying all of

1114
01:06:26,719 --> 01:06:29,239
that stuff, all that theory. He's like, no, and he's like,

1115
01:06:29,280 --> 01:06:32,599
these people have like at the you some the cue

1116
01:06:32,840 --> 01:06:35,840
is where you know, where the rubber actually meets the road.

1117
01:06:35,840 --> 01:06:39,960
These people have names houses and are like real existing

1118
01:06:40,119 --> 01:06:42,920
entities that have variables, a whole different set of variables

1119
01:06:42,960 --> 01:06:48,039
than you know, uh, than than theoretical ones do.

1120
01:06:48,280 --> 01:06:51,239
Speaker 3: He's like no, no, like that really matters anymore.

1121
01:06:51,440 --> 01:06:54,800
Speaker 4: We need what we need roads ports and energy sources.

1122
01:06:55,079 --> 01:06:56,400
And this is like, you know, this is what we

1123
01:06:56,400 --> 01:07:01,039
talked about. The neutralized political force with the material control

1124
01:07:01,239 --> 01:07:02,800
is what we're about to get into.

1125
01:07:04,920 --> 01:07:07,840
Speaker 1: The mobilization of French public opinion that took place during

1126
01:07:07,880 --> 01:07:11,679
the attempted coup and Algiers, and was the principal cause

1127
01:07:11,719 --> 01:07:14,639
of its failure, could not have taken place without the

1128
01:07:14,760 --> 01:07:18,480
use of a whole range of technical facilities. The government

1129
01:07:18,480 --> 01:07:22,400
appealed to public opinion by means of the mass communications media,

1130
01:07:22,719 --> 01:07:26,000
chiefly the radio and television services. Today, of course, it

1131
01:07:26,039 --> 01:07:29,719
would primarily use social media. The trade unions and others

1132
01:07:30,320 --> 01:07:34,239
and other organized bodies coordinated the agitation of their members

1133
01:07:34,280 --> 01:07:37,119
by means of their network of branches connected to the

1134
01:07:37,159 --> 01:07:42,199
central headquarters by means of the public telecommunications facilities. Finally,

1135
01:07:42,320 --> 01:07:45,360
the mass demonstrations could not have taken place without the

1136
01:07:45,480 --> 01:07:52,320
use of public and private transport. Our general neutralization of

1137
01:07:52,360 --> 01:07:55,960
the political forces will be conducted in terms of this infrastructure.

1138
01:07:56,360 --> 01:07:59,960
We will seize and hold such facilities as we require

1139
01:08:00,280 --> 01:08:03,800
for our own purposes, while temporarily putting the others out

1140
01:08:03,800 --> 01:08:07,840
of action. If the means of communication and the transport

1141
01:08:07,880 --> 01:08:10,519
system are under our control or at any rate do

1142
01:08:10,599 --> 01:08:13,960
not function, the potential threat posed by the political forces

1143
01:08:14,280 --> 01:08:17,800
will be largely neutralized. The leaders of the pre coup

1144
01:08:17,840 --> 01:08:21,079
government will be arrested since they are part of the infrastructure,

1145
01:08:21,279 --> 01:08:23,800
and they would probably be the major sources of inspiration

1146
01:08:23,960 --> 01:08:26,199
of any opposition to the coup.

1147
01:08:26,960 --> 01:08:28,600
Speaker 4: Okay, this is just going to stop and point out

1148
01:08:28,600 --> 01:08:31,680
again how actually aggressive this is. Okay, this is one

1149
01:08:31,720 --> 01:08:33,399
of the things that makes the loots wise, the loots

1150
01:08:33,439 --> 01:08:37,560
back gain incredibly famous. So again it we're continuing to

1151
01:08:37,560 --> 01:08:42,039
discard sort of classical thinking. Well, classical thinking may the

1152
01:08:42,199 --> 01:08:45,560
game of classical thinking might put you in a position

1153
01:08:45,600 --> 01:08:49,680
where you say, okay, we need to either concentrate on destroying,

1154
01:08:50,399 --> 01:08:58,479
on disabling opposition architecture or building our own architecture. And

1155
01:08:59,199 --> 01:09:02,479
he this game over and says, no, you actually have

1156
01:09:02,479 --> 01:09:04,600
to attack on two fronts. You have to destroy that,

1157
01:09:04,640 --> 01:09:07,520
you have to destroy your incapacitate theirs, but also seize

1158
01:09:07,520 --> 01:09:10,039
as much of it for you as you possibly can.

1159
01:09:10,680 --> 01:09:12,880
Speaker 3: So like, this is incrazy.

1160
01:09:12,359 --> 01:09:17,800
Speaker 4: He's he's prescribing attack harder than anyone has ever suggested.

1161
01:09:17,840 --> 01:09:18,560
Speaker 3: Attack before.

1162
01:09:18,920 --> 01:09:22,800
Speaker 4: Even even someone like Napoleon would not have would would

1163
01:09:22,800 --> 01:09:24,640
not have done this regularly.

1164
01:09:26,880 --> 01:09:31,000
Speaker 1: Okay, let me see where was uh? Okay. We will

1165
01:09:31,039 --> 01:09:35,239
neutralize some political forces, in particular by identifying and isolating

1166
01:09:35,239 --> 01:09:38,960
their leadership and by disrupting their organizations. This will only

1167
01:09:39,000 --> 01:09:43,520
be necessary for those forces sufficiently resilient and sufficiently militant

1168
01:09:43,640 --> 01:09:47,680
to intervene against us, even though the infrastructure has been neutralized.

1169
01:09:49,000 --> 01:09:52,199
Both forms of neutralization will involve the selection of certain

1170
01:09:52,239 --> 01:09:55,439
objectives that will be seized or put out of action

1171
01:09:55,600 --> 01:09:58,399
by teams formed out of those forces of the state

1172
01:09:58,800 --> 01:10:07,560
which we have fully verted or in our terminology incorporated. Yeah,

1173
01:10:07,760 --> 01:10:12,159
can't help but chuckle. Unless our target country is particularly

1174
01:10:12,239 --> 01:10:15,359
small and its physical and political structure is particularly simple,

1175
01:10:16,000 --> 01:10:19,680
its system of government will be complex, its physical facilities

1176
01:10:19,720 --> 01:10:22,840
will be extensive, and its political forces will be many

1177
01:10:22,920 --> 01:10:27,399
in number, while their intervention capabilities will be difficult to forecast.

1178
01:10:29,319 --> 01:10:33,560
We will therefore start by analyzing the governmental leadership in

1179
01:10:33,680 --> 01:10:36,760
order to determine which personalities must be isolated for the

1180
01:10:36,840 --> 01:10:39,720
duration of the active phase of the coup and which

1181
01:10:39,760 --> 01:10:41,159
can be safely ignored.

1182
01:10:42,239 --> 01:10:44,960
Speaker 4: You say, have procedure, Like you said, this is what

1183
01:10:44,960 --> 01:10:49,479
we're doing is also building a program, is what it.

1184
01:10:49,479 --> 01:10:53,600
Speaker 1: Is, you know, right, And he's using terms like isolated

1185
01:10:54,279 --> 01:10:57,520
or you know, a personality must be isolated or can

1186
01:10:57,560 --> 01:11:02,840
be safely ignored. Just that's a huge contrast there, especially

1187
01:11:02,840 --> 01:11:09,239
when you know what isolated means. Next, we will study

1188
01:11:09,239 --> 01:11:13,119
the physical facilities and select those most likely to be

1189
01:11:13,239 --> 01:11:16,039
relevant during the coup in order to plan their seizure

1190
01:11:16,119 --> 01:11:21,840
or neutralization. Finally, I mean the seizure or neutralization. I

1191
01:11:21,880 --> 01:11:25,800
mean neutualization could mean a lot of things.

1192
01:11:25,880 --> 01:11:29,119
Speaker 3: Right, you think of blowing up a natural gas tank

1193
01:11:29,479 --> 01:11:30,640
in the parking garage.

1194
01:11:31,720 --> 01:11:34,800
Speaker 4: Everything you see happening in Gaza is because both sides

1195
01:11:34,840 --> 01:11:36,319
have a copy of this book, you know.

1196
01:11:39,000 --> 01:11:41,840
Speaker 1: Finally, we will investigate the nature of those political forces

1197
01:11:41,840 --> 01:11:45,119
that could still retain a degree of intervention capability after

1198
01:11:45,199 --> 01:11:49,760
our general measures have been implemented, in order to prepare

1199
01:11:49,840 --> 01:11:58,199
for their individual neutralization. Personalities in the government, however bloodless

1200
01:11:58,199 --> 01:12:05,279
are coup, however progress of in liberal our aims, we

1201
01:12:05,319 --> 01:12:09,039
will still have to arrest certain individuals during and immediately

1202
01:12:09,079 --> 01:12:13,359
after its execution. Of these, the most important group will

1203
01:12:13,399 --> 01:12:15,600
be formed by the leading figures of the pre coup

1204
01:12:15,680 --> 01:12:18,920
regime or In other words, the leaders of the government

1205
01:12:19,000 --> 01:12:23,239
and their close associates, whether they are formally politicians or not.

1206
01:12:25,119 --> 01:12:27,560
The members of a cabinet will form a fairly large

1207
01:12:27,600 --> 01:12:30,840
group from ten to fifty people. Adding their associates and

1208
01:12:30,840 --> 01:12:34,800
insimate advisors who could organize opposition against us, we could

1209
01:12:34,800 --> 01:12:38,199
easily reach a figure four or five times that number.

1210
01:12:39,600 --> 01:12:42,760
Apart from being uncomfortably large, this will also be an

1211
01:12:42,880 --> 01:12:48,720
especially determined and dangerous group. The personal repute, presence, and

1212
01:12:48,800 --> 01:12:52,520
authority of its members might enable them to rally against us.

1213
01:12:52,560 --> 01:12:57,039
The disorganized forces of the state or the unorganized masses

1214
01:13:00,039 --> 01:13:02,640
could also enable them to impose their will on the

1215
01:13:02,720 --> 01:13:06,239
teams sent to capture them, turning there would be captors

1216
01:13:06,399 --> 01:13:12,000
into their allies. General Calais, for example, was regarded as

1217
01:13:12,039 --> 01:13:16,960
the patron by the NCOs of the French army in Algeria,

1218
01:13:17,039 --> 01:13:19,760
and even after the total failure of his attempted coup,

1219
01:13:20,079 --> 01:13:22,720
the Paris government could not entrust him to a military

1220
01:13:22,840 --> 01:13:26,000
escort on his way to France and arrest. The government

1221
01:13:26,039 --> 01:13:29,600
instead had to use the CRS, whose members had never

1222
01:13:29,720 --> 01:13:36,039
experienced his personal authority. After all, if a young soldier

1223
01:13:36,079 --> 01:13:39,439
acting outside his familiar role is facing a political personality

1224
01:13:39,720 --> 01:13:43,840
whose whole behavior is calculated to make people obey him.

1225
01:13:44,119 --> 01:13:46,520
It is difficult to be absolutely certain that he will

1226
01:13:46,520 --> 01:13:49,199
carry out his orders and not the counter orders he

1227
01:13:49,239 --> 01:13:49,880
may be given.

1228
01:13:51,199 --> 01:13:55,880
Speaker 4: This seems treating pre boiler plates a yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah,

1229
01:13:55,920 --> 01:13:56,159
we know.

1230
01:13:58,760 --> 01:14:01,680
Speaker 1: The large number of separate targets, along with the possibility

1231
01:14:01,680 --> 01:14:05,520
of radiation effects, indicates that the team sent to arrest

1232
01:14:05,560 --> 01:14:09,399
them should be large and particularly well chosen. Since our

1233
01:14:09,439 --> 01:14:12,199
resources will be limited, we will have to concentrate our

1234
01:14:12,239 --> 01:14:15,760
efforts on the most important figures within the group, leaving

1235
01:14:15,800 --> 01:14:18,119
the others to be picked up later, when our means

1236
01:14:18,119 --> 01:14:20,800
will have been expanded by the allegiance of the wait

1237
01:14:20,880 --> 01:14:24,840
and see element. We cannot arrest all those who may

1238
01:14:24,840 --> 01:14:28,600
constitute an eventual danger, but we must make sure that

1239
01:14:28,640 --> 01:14:32,199
we do arrest the really dangerous figures, that is, the

1240
01:14:32,319 --> 01:14:35,439
key figures within the leadership, who may or may not

1241
01:14:35,520 --> 01:14:41,039
be the first in the formal order of precedence. The

1242
01:14:41,039 --> 01:14:45,359
formal structure of most modern governments falls into two broad categories.

1243
01:14:45,960 --> 01:14:48,319
The presidential type, in which the head of state is

1244
01:14:48,359 --> 01:14:53,399
also the main decision maker, as in the United States, France,

1245
01:14:53,560 --> 01:14:57,079
the Russian Federation. In most African states and the prime

1246
01:14:57,119 --> 01:15:00,399
ministerial type, where the head of the state has largely

1247
01:15:00,439 --> 01:15:03,720
symbolic or ceremonial duties and the real decision making duties

1248
01:15:03,720 --> 01:15:07,239
are carried out at a theoretically lower level, as in Britain,

1249
01:15:07,399 --> 01:15:12,479
India and most of Europe. A third altar form.

1250
01:15:12,399 --> 01:15:16,359
Speaker 4: Just to point out what he's doing here now is

1251
01:15:16,560 --> 01:15:20,000
actually just that he's prescribing a network attack.

1252
01:15:20,640 --> 01:15:21,199
Speaker 3: This is good.

1253
01:15:21,279 --> 01:15:23,880
Speaker 4: Then he's one of the fIF he works with RAND Corporation,

1254
01:15:23,960 --> 01:15:25,279
and this is like one of the things that they've

1255
01:15:25,279 --> 01:15:28,600
really pioneer is all that social media research. It's like

1256
01:15:28,680 --> 01:15:32,560
finally like trickled down to the Caladi demographic. They like

1257
01:15:32,880 --> 01:15:35,279
were the pioneers of it in the late nineteen sixties,

1258
01:15:35,279 --> 01:15:36,960
and so essentially what they're talking about, it's like you

1259
01:15:37,159 --> 01:15:39,720
we just we just pointed out this is the sampling

1260
01:15:39,760 --> 01:15:42,199
set problem. We just pointed out that there's going to

1261
01:15:42,239 --> 01:15:44,960
be there's like a thousand people that you have to

1262
01:15:45,359 --> 01:15:48,399
nail down in like Djibouti if you want to do

1263
01:15:48,439 --> 01:15:51,800
a coup there, and like unfortunately, they're also going to

1264
01:15:51,800 --> 01:15:55,800
be the thousand most difficult people to get, so like

1265
01:15:55,920 --> 01:15:58,880
your chances realistically are It's like This is like trying

1266
01:15:58,880 --> 01:16:00,920
to sample is like trying to get a good sample

1267
01:16:00,960 --> 01:16:04,720
with Pennsylvania voters in you know, for twenty twenty four,

1268
01:16:05,199 --> 01:16:08,119
for the twenty twenty four election. We don't have any

1269
01:16:08,159 --> 01:16:10,760
way of knowing what the hell is going on out there.

1270
01:16:10,880 --> 01:16:14,399
We don't have really good sources of information, but like

1271
01:16:14,520 --> 01:16:17,600
we do know that we have enough that we can

1272
01:16:17,640 --> 01:16:21,439
maybe figure out which nodes we can attack discreetly to

1273
01:16:21,520 --> 01:16:25,000
minimize the probability of the others being able to form,

1274
01:16:25,239 --> 01:16:28,560
you know, to act as a coherent network. So it's

1275
01:16:28,560 --> 01:16:30,479
a game theory that he's setting up here.

1276
01:16:32,760 --> 01:16:35,479
Speaker 1: A third alternative form, which is not a structure at all,

1277
01:16:35,560 --> 01:16:38,399
but rather a denial of one, is the strong man

1278
01:16:38,560 --> 01:16:41,680
form of government. The strong man may not be a

1279
01:16:41,760 --> 01:16:45,279
top minister and may hold no official position at all,

1280
01:16:45,359 --> 01:16:49,000
but actually rules by using the formal body of politicians

1281
01:16:49,079 --> 01:16:53,520
as a screen. This type of regime evolves when the

1282
01:16:53,800 --> 01:16:56,680
fabric of the state has been weakened to such an

1283
01:16:56,760 --> 01:16:59,399
extent that only the actual leader of some part of

1284
01:16:59,439 --> 01:17:02,159
the armed forces or police can control the situation and

1285
01:17:02,199 --> 01:17:07,279
remain in power. A person even minimally acceptable as a

1286
01:17:07,279 --> 01:17:10,239
political leader, can take over the formal posts as well

1287
01:17:10,600 --> 01:17:14,399
becoming the visible head of the government Nasar in Egypt.

1288
01:17:14,680 --> 01:17:17,319
Raise Ashah, the father of the President Shah of Persia,

1289
01:17:17,920 --> 01:17:22,319
both accomplished this after a short period of transition. But

1290
01:17:22,479 --> 01:17:25,800
there can sometimes be racial or religious reasons that bar

1291
01:17:25,960 --> 01:17:30,560
the strong man from an official position. The man who

1292
01:17:30,640 --> 01:17:34,399
controls the bayonets may be totally unacceptable as a public figure,

1293
01:17:34,680 --> 01:17:37,880
but he can still rule indirectly by manipulating the official

1294
01:17:37,960 --> 01:17:42,520
leaders he keeps under control by the ultimate sanction of force.

1295
01:17:47,279 --> 01:17:48,920
Speaker 4: This charge you're about to read was one of the

1296
01:17:48,920 --> 01:17:53,720
more confusing charts that I've actually like every across the planet.

1297
01:17:55,920 --> 01:17:57,279
Speaker 1: I don't know if I'm going to read this chart.

1298
01:17:57,840 --> 01:17:59,399
If people can pick up the book and read it,

1299
01:17:59,479 --> 01:18:03,119
I don't think anythink it helps us.

1300
01:18:03,119 --> 01:18:07,560
Speaker 4: Stream shot. Yeah, it's just his shorthand or stuff. Seventeenth

1301
01:18:07,560 --> 01:18:10,079
century England. All right, couragey.

1302
01:18:12,119 --> 01:18:12,199
Speaker 2: Right.

1303
01:18:12,960 --> 01:18:15,800
Speaker 1: When in early nineteen sixty six, the Syrian government of

1304
01:18:15,840 --> 01:18:19,079
the moderate wing of the Bath Party, headed by Michel

1305
01:18:19,199 --> 01:18:23,520
Aflac sala Bitar and the army leader Hafiz, was overthrown

1306
01:18:23,560 --> 01:18:26,439
by an extreme left faction of the party, the new

1307
01:18:26,520 --> 01:18:30,279
leadership found out that though it controlled the army and

1308
01:18:30,319 --> 01:18:34,439
the country, it could not rule openly. The army officers

1309
01:18:34,479 --> 01:18:37,800
who led this latest coup were too young, too unknown,

1310
01:18:37,920 --> 01:18:43,000
and above all, they were Alloites sala Jadid. Their leader

1311
01:18:43,279 --> 01:18:46,520
was a dark, brooding figure who inspired fear and hatred

1312
01:18:46,560 --> 01:18:49,000
among the small part of the public that knew of him,

1313
01:18:49,439 --> 01:18:51,920
and of all the communities of Syria, the Alloites were

1314
01:18:51,960 --> 01:18:56,319
among the least prestigious. In colonial times, the French had

1315
01:18:56,359 --> 01:19:00,960
recruited most of their forces of repression, the Troupe, especially

1316
01:19:01,000 --> 01:19:06,760
the specially especially ad Levent, from the minority communities, chiefly

1317
01:19:06,800 --> 01:19:09,720
the Allohites, and they had given the Alloyite area in

1318
01:19:09,760 --> 01:19:13,119
northern Syria a form of autonomy and order. So the

1319
01:19:13,199 --> 01:19:19,000
nationalists claimed to break up Syrian national unity. After independence,

1320
01:19:19,119 --> 01:19:23,319
the Sunni majority community regarded the Alloites as renegades, and

1321
01:19:23,399 --> 01:19:26,279
public opinion would only have accepted an Allo white head

1322
01:19:26,319 --> 01:19:28,000
of state with difficulty.

1323
01:19:29,760 --> 01:19:32,039
Speaker 3: Do you ask you a question, what is an Alite?

1324
01:19:32,119 --> 01:19:35,039
I don't even know. This is like a perfect.

1325
01:19:34,680 --> 01:19:41,079
Speaker 1: Time, Okay, so it's yeah, no one knows. It's really odd.

1326
01:19:41,199 --> 01:19:46,600
They're okay, they're technically Muslim who seem to be closer

1327
01:19:46,640 --> 01:19:50,119
to Christianity than they are Judaism.

1328
01:19:50,359 --> 01:19:54,960
Speaker 4: Okay, so they're like syncretics of some sort. It's a

1329
01:19:55,319 --> 01:19:57,319
religious grew, not an ethnic group.

1330
01:19:57,680 --> 01:20:01,439
Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, yeah, it's what's his name? I mean I

1331
01:20:01,880 --> 01:20:05,760
saw it as an Alo white. Yeah, but he's actually

1332
01:20:05,800 --> 01:20:09,439
really good in his country about protecting Christians and Jews,

1333
01:20:10,279 --> 01:20:11,880
so it's yeah, that makes sense.

1334
01:20:12,319 --> 01:20:13,439
Speaker 3: I just didn't know what one is.

1335
01:20:13,520 --> 01:20:17,079
Speaker 4: I'm like, is it like, it's just it's been a

1336
01:20:17,119 --> 01:20:19,199
placeholder in my head, like when he's a little grat dad,

1337
01:20:19,279 --> 01:20:20,800
It's like, okay, I know he's an Alo white, and

1338
01:20:20,800 --> 01:20:21,920
I don't know what the hell it is.

1339
01:20:23,119 --> 01:20:25,479
Speaker 1: I looked it up once and it was confusing to me.

1340
01:20:25,520 --> 01:20:28,239
It's like trying to look, uh, trying to look up

1341
01:20:28,319 --> 01:20:36,560
the what's that spiritual sect of Islam Sufi? Yeah yeah, yeah,

1342
01:20:36,600 --> 01:20:38,800
it's like I don't know what. I don't know what's

1343
01:20:38,800 --> 01:20:41,439
going on. I just i'd have to read. I'd have

1344
01:20:41,479 --> 01:20:43,319
to read a book about it instead of looking at

1345
01:20:43,319 --> 01:20:47,159
like Wikipedia and a couple of articles. Yeah, and maybe

1346
01:20:47,279 --> 01:20:52,479
I probably still wouldn't understand, all right. Saljadd overcame this

1347
01:20:52,560 --> 01:20:55,600
problem by appointing a full set of cabinet ministers carefully

1348
01:20:55,680 --> 01:20:59,399
chosen so as to balance the various communities. While retaining

1349
01:20:59,439 --> 01:21:02,720
the real decision making power within a separate body, the

1350
01:21:02,800 --> 01:21:07,600
National Revolutionary Council, headed by himself. Thus, though Syria had

1351
01:21:07,600 --> 01:21:14,359
a president Neuridin al Atasi, a Prime minister Josef Zwayang,

1352
01:21:14,760 --> 01:21:19,319
and a foreign minister Ibrahim Markou, all major political decisions

1353
01:21:19,359 --> 01:21:22,920
were made by Jadid. The ministers would go on state visits,

1354
01:21:23,000 --> 01:21:26,479
make the public speeches, and appear in all ceremonial occasions,

1355
01:21:26,520 --> 01:21:30,560
but power was not in their hands. The Asad's father

1356
01:21:30,640 --> 01:21:34,159
and son followed this model, faithfully placing Sunnis in the

1357
01:21:34,239 --> 01:21:39,000
nominally important positions by keeping the key positions for Aloites, Drews,

1358
01:21:39,359 --> 01:21:45,319
and Ismaili's. I don't know what those three are. I've

1359
01:21:45,359 --> 01:21:47,720
never looked. I mean, I've looked up Alloites, I've never

1360
01:21:47,760 --> 01:21:52,279
bothered looking up Drews. Ismali's sounds that that sounds like

1361
01:21:52,319 --> 01:21:52,840
a slur.

1362
01:21:54,199 --> 01:21:54,479
Speaker 3: Again.

1363
01:21:54,600 --> 01:21:56,880
Speaker 4: The good thing is is that as long as you

1364
01:21:56,920 --> 01:22:00,119
can follow the like the like language that he's using,

1365
01:22:00,720 --> 01:22:03,159
he could be he could be using the dungeons and

1366
01:22:03,239 --> 01:22:07,239
dragons gain as an example. And it's and that's kind

1367
01:22:07,239 --> 01:22:09,279
of how I'm reading it. I'm like, oh, Druis, yeah,

1368
01:22:09,319 --> 01:22:15,159
of course, yeah, neutral, good, yeah.

1369
01:22:15,439 --> 01:22:18,840
Speaker 1: Sometimes socialist countries were formally ruled by party governments, but

1370
01:22:18,880 --> 01:22:22,079
they tended to break down into one of two other types.

1371
01:22:22,640 --> 01:22:25,720
In its original form, real political power was concentrated in

1372
01:22:25,720 --> 01:22:28,560
the hands of the Central Committee and some other higher

1373
01:22:28,600 --> 01:22:33,960
party council. Once the purely ceremonial figures have been excluded,

1374
01:22:34,319 --> 01:22:36,840
the number of people still to be dealt with will

1375
01:22:36,880 --> 01:22:41,199
be reduced, and by applying our time spend criterion, we

1376
01:22:41,239 --> 01:22:45,159
can reduce their numbers still further. The Minister of Economic

1377
01:22:45,239 --> 01:22:47,880
Planning may be a crucial figure in the government. His

1378
01:22:48,000 --> 01:22:51,279
position as a technocrat may be unassailable, but he may

1379
01:22:51,319 --> 01:22:55,319
be unable to rally public opinion against us to assert

1380
01:22:55,359 --> 01:22:59,239
his authority over the armed forces.

1381
01:22:59,720 --> 01:23:02,079
Speaker 4: That's the same reason. Who is that German guy, the

1382
01:23:02,600 --> 01:23:07,039
one the Nazi, the architect Nazi that was the same

1383
01:23:07,279 --> 01:23:10,800
the one that came to wrote all those write all

1384
01:23:10,840 --> 01:23:13,920
those books. He was the really like the the like

1385
01:23:14,039 --> 01:23:20,239
senior Nazi management. Yeah yeah, yeah, yeah, this is like

1386
01:23:20,279 --> 01:23:22,039
what they're talking about with them. He's like, yeah, this

1387
01:23:22,119 --> 01:23:24,439
guy's this is and again I like to talk about

1388
01:23:24,479 --> 01:23:25,000
this all the time.

1389
01:23:25,039 --> 01:23:25,479
Speaker 3: I used this.

1390
01:23:25,560 --> 01:23:27,479
Speaker 4: I do exactly what he's doing here all the time,

1391
01:23:27,520 --> 01:23:30,640
all those articles I write about like dimensionalization and that

1392
01:23:30,680 --> 01:23:32,479
sort of thing. I have another one come out of it.

1393
01:23:32,520 --> 01:23:35,279
Exactly this right now is like when you're modeling this

1394
01:23:35,399 --> 01:23:37,840
situation in your head to make this decision, should you

1395
01:23:37,840 --> 01:23:40,560
do a coup? When you remember that, like, it's not

1396
01:23:40,640 --> 01:23:42,920
just you don't just have space to take to take

1397
01:23:42,960 --> 01:23:45,960
into consideration, you have time as well. So it's like, Okay,

1398
01:23:46,479 --> 01:23:49,000
you don't want to spend a lot of time chasing

1399
01:23:49,039 --> 01:23:52,039
down Albert spirit that still got if Himmler is still

1400
01:23:52,039 --> 01:23:54,520
on the board, So you need to be strategic about

1401
01:23:54,560 --> 01:23:57,960
who you take out. You know what's going on here.

1402
01:23:58,119 --> 01:24:01,359
There's like and you know the time span. The time

1403
01:24:01,399 --> 01:24:04,600
span this is happening in Albert Spear is not that important.

1404
01:24:04,680 --> 01:24:05,680
Let him go write books in.

1405
01:24:05,680 --> 01:24:10,520
Speaker 1: English trying to remember where I was. I'll just start

1406
01:24:10,520 --> 01:24:13,399
from the beginning of the paragraph. Once the purely ceremonial

1407
01:24:13,399 --> 01:24:15,760
figures have been excluded, the number of people still to

1408
01:24:15,800 --> 01:24:18,960
be dealt with will be reduced, and by applying our

1409
01:24:19,000 --> 01:24:22,479
time span criterion, we can reduce the number still further.

1410
01:24:23,119 --> 01:24:25,640
The Minister of Economic Planning may be a crucial figure

1411
01:24:25,680 --> 01:24:29,039
in the government. His position as a technocrat may be unassailable,

1412
01:24:29,399 --> 01:24:32,439
but he may be unable to rally public opinion against

1413
01:24:32,560 --> 01:24:35,359
us or to assert his authority over the armed forces.

1414
01:24:36,119 --> 01:24:38,840
The dramatic nature of the coup will reduce political life

1415
01:24:38,840 --> 01:24:42,880
to its ultimate rationale, sheer force, and we will concentrate

1416
01:24:42,960 --> 01:24:45,760
on these figures in the government who could deploy it.

1417
01:24:46,439 --> 01:24:51,399
The obvious personalities therefore will be a the Minister of

1418
01:24:51,439 --> 01:24:54,600
the Interior and his associates, who control the police force.

1419
01:24:55,960 --> 01:24:58,840
B the Minister of Defense and his associates who control

1420
01:24:58,880 --> 01:25:03,159
the armed forces. C the party leaders if there is

1421
01:25:03,159 --> 01:25:07,760
a party militia. D the Prime Minister or other central

1422
01:25:07,760 --> 01:25:13,439
figure who coordinates all these. We must remember that, for

1423
01:25:13,520 --> 01:25:16,560
various reasons, figures in the government may not always be

1424
01:25:16,640 --> 01:25:19,239
what they appear to be. We may discover that the

1425
01:25:19,319 --> 01:25:24,079
apparently innocuous Minister of Education controls an important student's militia,

1426
01:25:24,560 --> 01:25:28,600
or the Minister of Labor a powerful workers militia. More important,

1427
01:25:28,640 --> 01:25:31,560
the effective power may be held by an inner association

1428
01:25:31,760 --> 01:25:35,399
of a particular group of ministers, who between them control

1429
01:25:35,479 --> 01:25:39,800
the means of coercion of the state. Thus, the government

1430
01:25:39,840 --> 01:25:42,880
of Czechoslovakia between the elections of May nineteen forty six

1431
01:25:42,920 --> 01:25:46,520
and the final Communists takeover in February nineteen forty eight

1432
01:25:46,880 --> 01:25:50,319
was a coalition of all democratic parties, but the communist

1433
01:25:50,399 --> 01:25:54,239
ministers within it effectively monopolize the control of the means

1434
01:25:54,279 --> 01:25:59,800
of coercion, the police and the security Service. The existence

1435
01:25:59,800 --> 01:26:03,039
of a group of associates whose alliance transcends the formal

1436
01:26:03,159 --> 01:26:06,239
order of government is illustrated in figure four point two.

1437
01:26:08,680 --> 01:26:11,239
In this particular case, out of the eighteen or so

1438
01:26:11,359 --> 01:26:14,720
members of the government, the prime Minister, the ministers of Defense,

1439
01:26:15,000 --> 01:26:18,399
Labor and Education, and the under secretaries of State for

1440
01:26:18,479 --> 01:26:21,760
the Army and police actually hold the reigns of power,

1441
01:26:22,199 --> 01:26:25,640
though of course they need not be especially cohesive at

1442
01:26:25,720 --> 01:26:31,199
any particular time. The process of selections so far discussed

1443
01:26:31,239 --> 01:26:34,079
should result in the classification of the personalities of the

1444
01:26:34,079 --> 01:26:39,880
pre coup regime into three categories. Have this chart as President,

1445
01:26:40,039 --> 01:26:44,199
head of State, Prime Minister, Minister of Defense, and then

1446
01:26:44,239 --> 01:26:47,880
it's just showing it's spreading out and showing who the

1447
01:26:47,920 --> 01:26:52,479
Minister of Education possibly what is it possibly? Who they could.

1448
01:26:54,239 --> 01:26:56,479
Speaker 4: Yeah, and it's worth playing and it's worth pointing out

1449
01:26:56,479 --> 01:26:58,920
here this is not meant to be deterministic chart here

1450
01:26:59,000 --> 01:27:02,159
like there's and I think a lot of like political

1451
01:27:02,199 --> 01:27:04,399
movements with This is an important This is one of

1452
01:27:04,479 --> 01:27:08,000
the art of war lessons you take because when you're

1453
01:27:08,000 --> 01:27:09,920
looking at a chart like this, you have to remember

1454
01:27:10,079 --> 01:27:13,359
that chart may not reflect the chart that you would

1455
01:27:13,399 --> 01:27:15,840
need to build. So he's like sort of giving you

1456
01:27:15,880 --> 01:27:19,720
an example of a of a workflow. But don't you

1457
01:27:19,760 --> 01:27:23,000
would be very you may not necessarily be taken under

1458
01:27:23,000 --> 01:27:25,439
advisement to repeat his exactly because you have to go.

1459
01:27:25,720 --> 01:27:27,760
You know, your situation on the ground is going to change.

1460
01:27:27,800 --> 01:27:31,319
But it's like, you know, yeah, an essential you know,

1461
01:27:31,439 --> 01:27:34,159
so you have to establish a work It's really what

1462
01:27:34,199 --> 01:27:37,279
you're talking about here is establishing a workflow from in

1463
01:27:37,359 --> 01:27:40,840
the most boiled down possible way. And he says, you

1464
01:27:40,840 --> 01:27:43,399
have to have a system for figuring out whenever this

1465
01:27:43,600 --> 01:27:46,319
it's been a trustless system to us, to be a

1466
01:27:46,359 --> 01:27:51,159
failed proof. Just be very simple machine that you know,

1467
01:27:51,279 --> 01:27:56,680
triages and eliminates and or neutralizes these figures.

1468
01:27:57,760 --> 01:28:04,000
Speaker 1: Okay, er the ceremonial figures. They will not be arrested.

1469
01:28:04,720 --> 01:28:07,000
If the head of state is generally popular, he or

1470
01:28:07,039 --> 01:28:09,960
she should be used as a symbol of continuity who

1471
01:28:09,960 --> 01:28:13,079
will help us to establish our legitimacy, provided he or

1472
01:28:13,119 --> 01:28:16,279
she can safely can be safely manipulated and made to

1473
01:28:16,279 --> 01:28:20,720
play this role. The other lesser ceremonial figures can simply

1474
01:28:20,760 --> 01:28:25,279
be ignored. The Inner Council and the controllers of the

1475
01:28:25,319 --> 01:28:29,479
means of coercion. This small group must be sequestered and

1476
01:28:29,479 --> 01:28:33,520
held in isolation until our authority is safely established. Apart

1477
01:28:33,520 --> 01:28:37,039
from the service, ministers, etc. Any government leader who is

1478
01:28:37,119 --> 01:28:44,079
personally particularly popular should be included in this category. The

1479
01:28:44,119 --> 01:28:48,039
other ministers and top civil servants. This larger group should

1480
01:28:48,079 --> 01:28:51,720
be subdivided into priority groups, to be dealt with as

1481
01:28:52,079 --> 01:28:56,479
and when our resources expand or become available when other

1482
01:28:56,680 --> 01:29:03,439
more urgent tasks have been carried out personalities outside the government.

1483
01:29:05,279 --> 01:29:07,960
The political weight of an individual in any large scale

1484
01:29:08,000 --> 01:29:11,520
political community will usually only be important within the framework

1485
01:29:11,520 --> 01:29:15,560
of an organization which he heads or manipulates. It is

1486
01:29:15,600 --> 01:29:20,039
sometimes possible for an individual to achieve political importance by

1487
01:29:20,039 --> 01:29:23,399
becoming identified with an ideology or an attitude in which

1488
01:29:23,399 --> 01:29:27,279
some significant part of the public believes co suit. The

1489
01:29:27,399 --> 01:29:30,840
leader of the Hungarian nationalist movement in the eighteen forty

1490
01:29:30,840 --> 01:29:34,159
eight eighteen forty nine revolution was a poet by profession

1491
01:29:34,439 --> 01:29:37,279
and had no party machine behind him, but he did

1492
01:29:37,319 --> 01:29:40,399
have considerable power because the masses in the cities at

1493
01:29:40,399 --> 01:29:44,560
any rate identified his person with Hungarian nationalism.

1494
01:29:45,239 --> 01:29:46,079
Speaker 3: You know, it's wild.

1495
01:29:46,279 --> 01:29:49,319
Speaker 4: I was literally this is I think so similarly to

1496
01:29:49,439 --> 01:29:52,439
Luke pak whenever he started this that I was thinking,

1497
01:29:52,680 --> 01:29:54,960
we're going to go grad coast to the very example here.

1498
01:29:55,479 --> 01:29:57,640
Speaker 3: But this is one of the thing that is this

1499
01:29:57,680 --> 01:29:58,600
is very cool.

1500
01:29:58,880 --> 01:30:01,439
Speaker 4: You know that he's that he's doing here is that

1501
01:30:01,880 --> 01:30:05,359
within the is that he's establishing. And if you look

1502
01:30:05,399 --> 01:30:06,960
at the name of the section.

1503
01:30:06,920 --> 01:30:08,239
Speaker 3: His personality he's not talking about.

1504
01:30:08,279 --> 01:30:12,520
Speaker 4: He doesn't say persons. He talks about personalities, which is

1505
01:30:12,560 --> 01:30:15,439
this more abstract thing that's harder to nail down. So

1506
01:30:15,640 --> 01:30:18,600
you know, this is why koups tend to be so brutal,

1507
01:30:18,680 --> 01:30:20,840
and this is why they is because you have to.

1508
01:30:20,800 --> 01:30:24,159
Speaker 3: Not only you did only you have to only you not.

1509
01:30:24,079 --> 01:30:25,840
Speaker 4: Only have to kill the person, you have to kill

1510
01:30:25,880 --> 01:30:29,640
them brutally that the personality dies as well. So we're

1511
01:30:30,439 --> 01:30:33,720
and we're theorizing about this a more abstract thing called

1512
01:30:33,720 --> 01:30:37,800
a persona than we are about persons themselves that have

1513
01:30:37,840 --> 01:30:41,199
a lot more interesting characteristics that we probably don't have

1514
01:30:41,239 --> 01:30:43,239
time to get into. But that is just something I

1515
01:30:43,279 --> 01:30:44,359
absolutely had to.

1516
01:30:44,319 --> 01:30:50,920
Speaker 1: Point out, Gandhi, who operated largely outside the Congress party machine,

1517
01:30:51,159 --> 01:30:55,560
also achieved personal power because too many, Because too many Indians,

1518
01:30:55,600 --> 01:30:58,560
He was the too many Indians. He was the embodiment

1519
01:30:58,560 --> 01:31:03,039
of nationalism. The remoteness of the examples indicates that such

1520
01:31:03,079 --> 01:31:05,720
figures are very rare, and if we do have them

1521
01:31:05,720 --> 01:31:09,520
in our target area, they should be treated as ceremonial figures.

1522
01:31:11,800 --> 01:31:17,319
Physical facilities mass media. Regardless of the pervasive reach of

1523
01:31:18,079 --> 01:31:21,279
interpersonal social media and of the Internet in general, unless

1524
01:31:21,279 --> 01:31:25,119
blocked by effective firewalls, control over the mass media emanating

1525
01:31:25,119 --> 01:31:28,319
from the political center will still be our most important

1526
01:31:28,319 --> 01:31:32,880
weapon in establishing our authority after the coup. The seizure

1527
01:31:32,960 --> 01:31:35,640
of the main means of mass communication will thus be

1528
01:31:35,720 --> 01:31:40,720
a task of crucial importance. One though only one of

1529
01:31:40,760 --> 01:31:43,359
the causes of the failure the Greek King's counter coup

1530
01:31:43,439 --> 01:31:47,720
in late nineteen sixty seven, was this inability to communicate

1531
01:31:47,720 --> 01:31:53,119
with the masses literally and otherwise. When Radio Larisa broadcasts

1532
01:31:53,159 --> 01:31:57,800
the King's mess Radio Larisa broadcast the King's messages, it

1533
01:31:58,000 --> 01:32:01,680
only reached a fraction of the populace. The transmitter was

1534
01:32:01,720 --> 01:32:05,119
weak in the wavelength unusual. Instead of the booming voice

1535
01:32:05,159 --> 01:32:07,640
of authority. The declaration took the form of a weak

1536
01:32:07,680 --> 01:32:11,880
appeal for help. We must must not make a similar mistake.

1537
01:32:13,319 --> 01:32:16,600
He points out here. You want to say something, No,

1538
01:32:17,399 --> 01:32:18,039
just kiggling.

1539
01:32:18,119 --> 01:32:20,399
Speaker 3: He's a funny guy. He's a funny guy.

1540
01:32:20,520 --> 01:32:24,560
Speaker 1: Yeah. He has a table short table here. Mass communications

1541
01:32:24,560 --> 01:32:27,199
in the Middle East and North Africa mid nineteen sixty seven.

1542
01:32:27,800 --> 01:32:31,720
Estimated circulation of daily newspapers one point five million. Estimated

1543
01:32:31,760 --> 01:32:35,199
number of television sets one million, estimated number of radio

1544
01:32:35,279 --> 01:32:40,600
sets seven million. Because of the short timeframe for the

1545
01:32:40,640 --> 01:32:43,880
coup and because of the likely social background of our

1546
01:32:43,960 --> 01:32:47,439
target country, the press need not be a primary target.

1547
01:32:47,680 --> 01:32:50,439
We will establish our authority over it after the coup.

1548
01:32:50,800 --> 01:32:54,079
As with other aspects of the nation's life, Inevitably, the

1549
01:32:54,119 --> 01:32:56,760
press can only play a marginal role in countries where

1550
01:32:56,760 --> 01:33:01,560
illiterasly is widespread, and in other In any case, it

1551
01:33:01,680 --> 01:33:05,119
is the radio and television services that are mainly associated

1552
01:33:05,359 --> 01:33:10,079
with the voice of the government. The approximate comparative data

1553
01:33:10,119 --> 01:33:12,880
for the Arab world in Table four point three illustrates

1554
01:33:12,880 --> 01:33:15,920
the importance of the different media in one part in

1555
01:33:15,960 --> 01:33:21,039
one part of the Third World. Even these figures understated

1556
01:33:21,079 --> 01:33:24,479
the contemporary importance of radios and television sets because while

1557
01:33:24,479 --> 01:33:28,640
the press figures refer to circulation i e. Estimated number

1558
01:33:28,640 --> 01:33:32,119
of readers rather than copies sold, the radios and television

1559
01:33:32,159 --> 01:33:37,199
sets reach a much wider public, even among the poorest groups,

1560
01:33:37,239 --> 01:33:42,680
since every cafe has one, and anyone who's traveled in

1561
01:33:42,720 --> 01:33:46,399
a country knows exactly what that lasts, traveled in a

1562
01:33:46,439 --> 01:33:47,680
poor country.

1563
01:33:48,039 --> 01:33:50,920
Speaker 3: He's been incredibly romantic here as well.

1564
01:33:51,000 --> 01:33:53,880
Speaker 4: This is like like what he's like conjuring up some

1565
01:33:54,079 --> 01:33:57,680
like like like change bond tiering saticism, and.

1566
01:33:57,680 --> 01:34:00,520
Speaker 3: It works for nobody. This is the reason nobody, nobody

1567
01:34:00,600 --> 01:34:01,479
can do this like him.

1568
01:34:01,520 --> 01:34:03,399
Speaker 4: He's the only guy, the.

1569
01:34:03,399 --> 01:34:04,079
Speaker 3: Guy for that.

1570
01:34:06,039 --> 01:34:10,279
Speaker 1: I've been in some really nice cafes and really poor countries,

1571
01:34:10,319 --> 01:34:13,760
and there really is a romantic There really is a romanticism.

1572
01:34:13,800 --> 01:34:19,760
Two of them, especially during the winter in Eastern Europe.

1573
01:34:21,079 --> 01:34:26,880
There are two problems associated with the radio and television facilities.

1574
01:34:26,880 --> 01:34:30,279
From our point of view, A, there will often be

1575
01:34:30,479 --> 01:34:34,880
many different broadcasting services and associated facilities, and B they

1576
01:34:34,880 --> 01:34:38,800
are particularly difficult to seize. In some countries where the

1577
01:34:38,840 --> 01:34:43,680
internal security position is precarious, the governmental radio is heavily guarded,

1578
01:34:43,720 --> 01:34:46,960
but even where there is not the case, these facilities

1579
01:34:47,000 --> 01:34:50,159
are difficult to seize because their staff have a uniquely

1580
01:34:50,239 --> 01:34:54,039
extensive way of raising the alarm. As for the duplication

1581
01:34:54,199 --> 01:34:58,159
of broadcasting facilities, even Haiti, a very small and extremely

1582
01:34:58,199 --> 01:35:01,960
backward country, had eight different radio stations even back in

1583
01:35:02,039 --> 01:35:06,920
nineteen sixty seven, and they were controlled by independent networks.

1584
01:35:07,199 --> 01:35:11,760
I bet that is at a date I doubt they

1585
01:35:11,760 --> 01:35:16,960
have eighteen right now. Our objective is not merely to control,

1586
01:35:17,000 --> 01:35:20,279
but also to monopolize the flow of information. Therefore, we

1587
01:35:20,359 --> 01:35:24,159
must deal with every single facility. This would be difficult

1588
01:35:24,239 --> 01:35:27,600
and would also lead to a dispersal of our forces

1589
01:35:27,880 --> 01:35:31,319
if we tried to seize and hold every facility. Our

1590
01:35:31,359 --> 01:35:35,199
strategy will therefore be to seize and hold just one facility,

1591
01:35:35,439 --> 01:35:38,279
the one most closely associated with the voice of authority,

1592
01:35:38,439 --> 01:35:42,600
while neutralizing the others. This is best done with the

1593
01:35:42,600 --> 01:35:46,079
cooperation of some technical member of their staff who would

1594
01:35:46,119 --> 01:35:50,439
be able to sabotage a facility from the inside. A

1595
01:35:50,479 --> 01:35:54,079
single cooperative technician will be able to temporarily put out

1596
01:35:54,119 --> 01:35:57,279
of action a radio station that would otherwise require a

1597
01:35:57,359 --> 01:36:02,840
full scale assault team. If we aren't able to recruit

1598
01:36:02,880 --> 01:36:08,479
an internal saboteur. The next best alternative will be external sabotage.

1599
01:36:08,960 --> 01:36:11,479
There's no need to cause any extensive damage since it

1600
01:36:11,520 --> 01:36:14,560
will usually be possible to remove or destroy a small

1601
01:36:14,600 --> 01:36:19,760
but essential part of the transmitter or transmitterors, thus effectively

1602
01:36:19,760 --> 01:36:23,880
neutralized in the facility. The one broadcasting facility which we

1603
01:36:24,000 --> 01:36:26,800
do have to seize and hold will present a special problem.

1604
01:36:27,039 --> 01:36:30,359
On the one hand, our need for the facility is absolute.

1605
01:36:30,760 --> 01:36:34,199
On the other because is it is such an obvious target.

1606
01:36:36,119 --> 01:36:38,119
The government will certainly.

1607
01:36:37,960 --> 01:36:42,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, you have to attack the gut star. It is

1608
01:36:42,800 --> 01:36:45,640
what happened. They know that's the thing, every like it was.

1609
01:36:45,840 --> 01:36:47,840
Speaker 4: All the rest of this is just talk around that

1610
01:36:48,039 --> 01:36:50,079
we know that's the thing you've got to get.

1611
01:36:50,319 --> 01:36:50,560
Speaker 3: You know.

1612
01:36:53,239 --> 01:36:55,600
Speaker 1: This means that the team assigned to this target will

1613
01:36:55,600 --> 01:36:58,760
have to be adequately staffed and equipped, and in order

1614
01:36:58,800 --> 01:37:03,039
to obviate the need for the cooperation of the facilities,

1615
01:37:03,079 --> 01:37:07,720
personnel should also include a skeleton technical staff. Appendix be

1616
01:37:07,840 --> 01:37:10,880
on the military aspects of the coup deals inter alia

1617
01:37:11,319 --> 01:37:19,600
with the composition of the various teams. Telecommunications, In spite

1618
01:37:19,640 --> 01:37:22,279
of the advent of the Internet and social media, technical

1619
01:37:22,319 --> 01:37:25,560
progress has on balance evolved in our favor, because all

1620
01:37:25,600 --> 01:37:28,640
the communications between our own teams can be carried out

1621
01:37:28,680 --> 01:37:33,119
by cheap, reliable, and secure two way radios now universally available.

1622
01:37:33,840 --> 01:37:36,880
We must, however, deny the Opposition the use of their

1623
01:37:36,920 --> 01:37:40,479
own communication systems. By doing so, we will paralyze their

1624
01:37:40,479 --> 01:37:44,359
reaction and prevent them from deploying against us such forces

1625
01:37:44,399 --> 01:37:48,399
as they still control. As Fig. Four point three shows,

1626
01:37:48,439 --> 01:37:52,479
the neutralization of the telecommunication facilities will be complicated by

1627
01:37:52,520 --> 01:37:56,760
their multiplicity, and it will be essential to achieve full coverage.

1628
01:37:58,119 --> 01:38:01,880
Only power cuts can reduce Internet communications, and that too

1629
01:38:02,000 --> 01:38:06,159
only gradually, though any specific social network can be blocked.

1630
01:38:08,119 --> 01:38:11,439
The Left Socialist revolutionary coup against the Bolsheviks in July

1631
01:38:11,560 --> 01:38:15,079
nineteen eighteen failed partly because it failed to comprehend the

1632
01:38:15,159 --> 01:38:20,359
need for monopoly of all telecommunications. The Left Socialist revolutionaries

1633
01:38:20,359 --> 01:38:23,239
that infiltrated a group of the Cheka, the main instrument

1634
01:38:23,279 --> 01:38:27,760
of Bolshevik power, and various army detachments. With these, they

1635
01:38:27,840 --> 01:38:32,560
arrested the head of the Czecha, Felix Zarinski, and seized

1636
01:38:32,600 --> 01:38:37,680
many public buildings. In the Moscow Telegraph Office, they failed, however,

1637
01:38:37,760 --> 01:38:42,439
to seize the telephone office, as that telegraph office I'm sorry.

1638
01:38:42,479 --> 01:38:45,960
They seized the public buildings, as many public buildings and

1639
01:38:46,000 --> 01:38:49,560
the Moscow Telegraph Office. They failed, however, to seize the

1640
01:38:49,560 --> 01:38:52,800
telephone office as well, and while they were sending cables

1641
01:38:52,840 --> 01:38:56,319
all over Russia asking for generalized political support, Lenin used

1642
01:38:56,319 --> 01:38:59,800
the telephone service to mobilize as fighting forces with these

1643
01:39:00,119 --> 01:39:09,199
coup was quickly crushed. This people are just gonna have

1644
01:39:09,239 --> 01:39:11,479
to go, gonna have to look at this chart themselves.

1645
01:39:12,840 --> 01:39:16,960
Speaker 4: I I spend all day looking at charts that look

1646
01:39:17,000 --> 01:39:18,319
exactly like that, and I was.

1647
01:39:18,279 --> 01:39:20,039
Speaker 3: Like, oh man, I'm not at work right now.

1648
01:39:20,159 --> 01:39:20,880
Speaker 4: I can't do it.

1649
01:39:24,119 --> 01:39:27,880
Speaker 1: Internal security authorities are aware of the need for efficient communications,

1650
01:39:27,880 --> 01:39:31,800
and apart from the facilities illustrated in Fig. Four point three,

1651
01:39:32,079 --> 01:39:34,800
there may also be independent networks for the exclusive use

1652
01:39:34,800 --> 01:39:38,800
of the security forces. The French Janda Marie has a

1653
01:39:38,920 --> 01:39:43,720
system of regional links which bypasses the public telephone and

1654
01:39:44,159 --> 01:39:47,399
cable wires, and even in smaller countries such as Ghana,

1655
01:39:47,520 --> 01:39:52,319
the police force has long had a fully independent system.

1656
01:39:52,600 --> 01:39:55,560
In the United States, there is no national police nor

1657
01:39:55,600 --> 01:39:58,600
a national police network as such, but the Department of

1658
01:39:58,680 --> 01:40:01,880
Defense maintains a national wide an international system that is

1659
01:40:01,960 --> 01:40:04,960
largely a single network in the world and connects every

1660
01:40:05,079 --> 01:40:11,079
US military installation with every other throughout the world. We cannot,

1661
01:40:11,119 --> 01:40:13,720
of course, hope to seize every two ways set in

1662
01:40:13,720 --> 01:40:16,600
the hands of the police and the military authorities, but

1663
01:40:16,680 --> 01:40:21,439
we should neutralize by external or internal sabotage those facilities

1664
01:40:21,439 --> 01:40:25,479
which can be identified and located. There's no need to

1665
01:40:25,560 --> 01:40:28,840
seize and hold any of these facilities. Therefore, it will

1666
01:40:29,760 --> 01:40:32,840
simply be a matter of penetrating the central organization of

1667
01:40:32,880 --> 01:40:36,720
each communication system for the brief period requires to sabotage

1668
01:40:36,720 --> 01:40:42,159
as operations, though again internal sabotage will be easier and safer.

1669
01:40:45,159 --> 01:40:47,760
Let's leave it right there. We're right at about an hour.

1670
01:40:48,520 --> 01:40:49,880
Because I'm a city entry.

1671
01:40:52,840 --> 01:40:54,880
Speaker 4: One of the things that just always amazes me is

1672
01:40:54,920 --> 01:40:57,560
how I don't know how good of a sample I am.

1673
01:40:57,640 --> 01:41:00,159
But like sometimes when I get like I said, he

1674
01:41:00,199 --> 01:41:02,800
and I think so similarly that like I was like, okay,

1675
01:41:02,840 --> 01:41:04,760
we're going to talk about coasts now, and of course

1676
01:41:04,760 --> 01:41:08,960
he didn't immediately did. But the way, I'm not sure

1677
01:41:09,000 --> 01:41:13,760
how exposed like even most like sort of non normy

1678
01:41:13,800 --> 01:41:16,439
audiences are to this sort of thinking. I think at

1679
01:41:16,479 --> 01:41:22,880
this point it's pretty saturated, you know, but like I

1680
01:41:23,079 --> 01:41:24,720
some of the stuff that he talks about now, like

1681
01:41:24,800 --> 01:41:27,840
he's in this last actually essentially describing cyber attacks. It's

1682
01:41:27,880 --> 01:41:31,039
like you need to like the ideal situation is you

1683
01:41:31,199 --> 01:41:34,239
just disrupt communications for two hours, you know, you.

1684
01:41:34,239 --> 01:41:37,760
Speaker 3: Push some bad code to you know, to cloud fare

1685
01:41:38,000 --> 01:41:40,760
and but boom, the whole thing's over and then everything

1686
01:41:40,840 --> 01:41:42,199
is right back to normal. You know.

1687
01:41:45,039 --> 01:41:47,640
Speaker 4: It's it's interesting that you know, he's so famous for

1688
01:41:47,680 --> 01:41:50,239
writing this because like that's so foundational to me, just

1689
01:41:50,239 --> 01:41:52,039
like Okay, yeah, that's the way, that's the.

1690
01:41:52,000 --> 01:41:56,199
Speaker 3: Way you do that. M hm. Yeah.

1691
01:41:56,319 --> 01:42:00,000
Speaker 1: I still yeah, yeah, I still think that like most people,

1692
01:42:01,279 --> 01:42:03,119
most people who would try to read this would go

1693
01:42:03,199 --> 01:42:03,880
right over their head.

1694
01:42:04,680 --> 01:42:10,079
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm all about all about trying toet like like

1695
01:42:10,079 --> 01:42:12,960
like multi dimensional thinking. This is really what Luke Back

1696
01:42:13,039 --> 01:42:14,159
is talking And like I said, this is one of

1697
01:42:14,159 --> 01:42:15,600
the chapters you can apply to a lot of things.

1698
01:42:15,640 --> 01:42:17,439
Speaker 3: You just think about things like okay.

1699
01:42:17,199 --> 01:42:20,880
Speaker 4: What instead of like how you know, let's say like like.

1700
01:42:20,880 --> 01:42:22,800
Speaker 3: What do I need to do to like what do

1701
01:42:22,840 --> 01:42:24,319
I need to do to make money? Or whatever?

1702
01:42:24,319 --> 01:42:26,680
Speaker 4: You think it like, you think of it like, Okay,

1703
01:42:27,760 --> 01:42:31,279
what dimensions do I have control of currently? That can

1704
01:42:31,279 --> 01:42:37,000
be rearranged to like to produce you know, profit, just

1705
01:42:37,159 --> 01:42:39,520
like little mind tricks that you can do with yourself.

1706
01:42:40,039 --> 01:42:42,800
And like he's introducing people to this kind of thinking

1707
01:42:42,840 --> 01:42:44,960
in this book. It's about you know, nominally running a

1708
01:42:45,039 --> 01:42:48,279
coup as well. That's one of the didactic dimensions of it.

1709
01:42:48,319 --> 01:42:51,000
And that's the coolest one, I think. And so yeah,

1710
01:42:51,039 --> 01:42:52,000
this has been fun.

1711
01:42:53,720 --> 01:42:57,199
Speaker 1: Cool. Well, I'm I still have a lot more to read.

1712
01:42:57,479 --> 01:42:59,720
Hopefully you can come back and pick up some more

1713
01:42:59,760 --> 01:43:05,279
and share some knowledge with us. Oh yeah, uh well

1714
01:43:06,479 --> 01:43:08,840
your plug your stuff again. I'm pretty sure I put

1715
01:43:08,840 --> 01:43:10,439
it in the show notes of the last thing, and

1716
01:43:10,479 --> 01:43:11,600
I'll make sure to do that again.

1717
01:43:12,239 --> 01:43:14,479
Speaker 4: Yeah yeah, well right right now, I think I just

1718
01:43:14,479 --> 01:43:16,439
have the substack, but I think I think I might.

1719
01:43:16,520 --> 01:43:19,119
I'm gonna have some more interesting stuff coming out. I'm

1720
01:43:19,119 --> 01:43:22,000
actually gonna start doing like a weird thing. I'm gonna

1721
01:43:22,000 --> 01:43:26,399
start doing like like kind of some basic but maybe

1722
01:43:26,439 --> 01:43:29,039
not so basic because there's just gonna be additive in

1723
01:43:29,079 --> 01:43:31,439
a lot of ways. I'm gonna start doing some some

1724
01:43:31,479 --> 01:43:38,359
digital humanities like AI natural language processing projects and show

1725
01:43:38,640 --> 01:43:41,159
you know, show do some informatics about them and you

1726
01:43:41,199 --> 01:43:42,640
know the reason why and I'll say it on this

1727
01:43:42,720 --> 01:43:44,880
show is because I was learning all of this stuff

1728
01:43:44,880 --> 01:43:48,199
and I get absolutely sick of dealing with like YouTube

1729
01:43:48,239 --> 01:43:50,479
videos by people who's dial.

1730
01:43:50,319 --> 01:43:53,159
Speaker 3: Like I can't understand. So I'm like, let's just.

1731
01:43:53,239 --> 01:43:55,479
Speaker 4: Get like a video where there's like a white dude

1732
01:43:55,520 --> 01:43:57,399
just being a normal white dude talking about how to

1733
01:43:57,399 --> 01:43:59,560
do some of the stuff people might be interested in,

1734
01:43:59,880 --> 01:44:02,640
you know, like I'm gonna call it like AI for

1735
01:44:02,800 --> 01:44:05,960
Chuds or something like that. I don't know, you.

1736
01:44:07,840 --> 01:44:11,199
Speaker 1: Don't want to listen to THEE no more aid like this.

1737
01:44:11,960 --> 01:44:14,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, I used to teach geography. I used

1738
01:44:14,520 --> 01:44:18,319
to teach geometry to I mean kids that it was

1739
01:44:18,359 --> 01:44:22,359
actually kids at are really good school. But the way

1740
01:44:22,399 --> 01:44:24,680
I would teach geometry to them, though, is look like

1741
01:44:24,840 --> 01:44:27,000
nothing but word problems. So we would be like, so

1742
01:44:27,079 --> 01:44:28,640
this is how we're going to figure out how many

1743
01:44:28,680 --> 01:44:32,000
times the British, the English archers at Agiancore could have

1744
01:44:32,039 --> 01:44:34,680
shot before the French Knights, you know, get to them

1745
01:44:34,720 --> 01:44:35,199
in that sort of thing.

1746
01:44:35,199 --> 01:44:36,199
Speaker 3: So like I would do stuff like that.

1747
01:44:36,239 --> 01:44:39,520
Speaker 4: We look at like I have this really juicy data

1748
01:44:39,560 --> 01:44:43,720
set of UH sales at the New Orleans slave market

1749
01:44:43,840 --> 01:44:46,319
that I've been like wanting to crack open for years.

1750
01:44:46,359 --> 01:44:48,880
It's just been like sitting in my cellar. I think

1751
01:44:48,920 --> 01:44:50,279
that's one of the ones I'm going to look at.

1752
01:44:50,359 --> 01:44:52,479
Speaker 3: So if you like that kind of I don't know.

1753
01:44:52,560 --> 01:44:54,800
Speaker 4: I don't know how much people like the graph content

1754
01:44:54,880 --> 01:44:57,199
from me, but like, this is a great cause. It's

1755
01:44:57,239 --> 01:44:59,319
all I've been talking about for the last hour. This

1756
01:44:59,399 --> 01:45:01,359
is a great place to plug that. So we need

1757
01:45:01,439 --> 01:45:02,520
to do that is one thing.

1758
01:45:03,960 --> 01:45:06,399
Speaker 1: No problem, all right, Christopher, thank you, have a good night.

1759
01:45:06,920 --> 01:45:10,239
All right, you too, want to welcome everyone back to

1760
01:45:10,680 --> 01:45:15,960
part eight of my reading of Kuda by Edward Wack.

1761
01:45:17,239 --> 01:45:20,560
John Fieldhouse is back. How are you doing, John Dean? Well, sir,

1762
01:45:21,560 --> 01:45:24,920
all right, I'm gonna get into it. Just start reading. Uh,

1763
01:45:25,479 --> 01:45:29,199
Sandy and I left off at city entry exit road link.

1764
01:45:29,279 --> 01:45:33,199
So here we go. During the active phase of the coup,

1765
01:45:33,279 --> 01:45:36,520
the unexpected arrival of even a small contention of loyalist

1766
01:45:36,680 --> 01:45:41,680
or uninfiltrated forces could seriously endanger our whole effort. When

1767
01:45:41,720 --> 01:45:45,439
a government discovers that troops of its own arm its

1768
01:45:45,439 --> 01:45:47,800
own armed forces are taking part in a coup in

1769
01:45:47,840 --> 01:45:50,600
the capital city, its logical reaction maybe to call on

1770
01:45:50,640 --> 01:45:54,520
troops station elsewhere in the hope that the infiltration of

1771
01:45:54,560 --> 01:45:57,560
the armed forces is limited to those in the capital city.

1772
01:45:58,520 --> 01:46:00,680
As it is not easy to infiltrate forces in the

1773
01:46:00,840 --> 01:46:04,760
entire national territory, the government's hope may be not be unfounded.

1774
01:46:05,960 --> 01:46:08,319
We will attack the mechanism that could lead to the

1775
01:46:08,399 --> 01:46:10,840
arrival of the loyalist troops in the capital city. At

1776
01:46:10,880 --> 01:46:14,039
each separate level, we will arrest those who would call

1777
01:46:14,119 --> 01:46:17,800
them in, we will disrupt the telecommunications needed to reach them,

1778
01:46:18,159 --> 01:46:21,279
and we will also try to isolate identified loyalist forces

1779
01:46:21,279 --> 01:46:26,640
by direct, though purely defensive military means. We must also

1780
01:46:26,680 --> 01:46:30,159
prevent the intervention of these forces by controlling the last level,

1781
01:46:30,439 --> 01:46:34,079
the perimeter of the capital city and scene of the coup.

1782
01:46:35,680 --> 01:46:38,720
There's a figure here of physical targets of the coup

1783
01:46:39,399 --> 01:46:41,359
and check it out on the video.

1784
01:46:42,399 --> 01:46:45,359
Speaker 2: If the got no nothing, I was just going to say,

1785
01:46:45,359 --> 01:46:47,439
the biggest issue is something like this is just controlling

1786
01:46:47,479 --> 01:46:50,479
main choke points there. You don't have to control every

1787
01:46:50,479 --> 01:46:53,479
inch of the road. If you can control the choke points.

1788
01:46:54,720 --> 01:46:57,439
Speaker 1: If the loyalist forces are to intervene in time, they

1789
01:46:57,479 --> 01:47:00,279
will have to move rapidly. This will require the use

1790
01:47:00,279 --> 01:47:04,079
of either the major roads or alternatively air transport. If

1791
01:47:04,119 --> 01:47:07,479
we can set up efficient defensive roadblocks at the appropriate places,

1792
01:47:07,560 --> 01:47:09,600
we should be able to deny their entry into the

1793
01:47:09,640 --> 01:47:13,279
capital city for the short period required, that is, until

1794
01:47:13,279 --> 01:47:15,920
we have established ourselves as the government and received the

1795
01:47:15,960 --> 01:47:20,920
allegiance of the bulk of the state bureaucracy and military forces. Thus,

1796
01:47:20,920 --> 01:47:23,119
by the time the forces of intervention have reached the

1797
01:47:23,159 --> 01:47:26,399
scene of the action, they will be isolated. They will

1798
01:47:26,399 --> 01:47:30,239
be isolated band of rebels. The most suitable places to

1799
01:47:30,239 --> 01:47:32,159
block a road with a small number of men and

1800
01:47:32,199 --> 01:47:35,800
limited equipment, as well as the techniques and implications of such,

1801
01:47:36,119 --> 01:47:39,079
are discussed in Appendix B and also in Chapter five,

1802
01:47:39,359 --> 01:47:42,319
where we deal with the direct neutralization of the identified

1803
01:47:42,399 --> 01:47:47,359
loyalist forces. Fig. Four point four illustrates the locations that

1804
01:47:47,399 --> 01:47:52,399
would be chosen in a particular synthetic example. But our

1805
01:47:52,399 --> 01:47:55,000
control of the physical access to the capital city will

1806
01:47:55,000 --> 01:47:57,600
also serve other purposes. It will be one of the

1807
01:47:57,600 --> 01:48:00,600
ways in which we will establish the physical presence of

1808
01:48:00,640 --> 01:48:03,319
the new regime, and it will also allow us to

1809
01:48:03,359 --> 01:48:06,560
prevent the escape of government leaders and other personalities we

1810
01:48:06,600 --> 01:48:10,159
have been unable to arrest. One of the dangers we

1811
01:48:10,199 --> 01:48:13,520
will face will be the revitalization of counter coup opposition,

1812
01:48:13,920 --> 01:48:18,399
which could result if a major governmental figure escapes from

1813
01:48:18,399 --> 01:48:22,640
the capital city and joins loyalist elements outside it. After

1814
01:48:22,680 --> 01:48:25,239
all the efforts we have made to neutralize such forces

1815
01:48:25,239 --> 01:48:29,920
by internal means and by interference with their transport and communications,

1816
01:48:30,119 --> 01:48:33,560
our whole work could be endangered. The loyalist forces could

1817
01:48:33,600 --> 01:48:36,680
fail to reach the capital, but the political leadership could

1818
01:48:36,760 --> 01:48:39,800
reach them. The means at our disposal will not be

1819
01:48:39,840 --> 01:48:43,239
sufficient to hermetically seal the entire capital city, though of

1820
01:48:43,279 --> 01:48:48,520
course much will depend on its location and spatial spread. Brazilia,

1821
01:48:48,960 --> 01:48:51,600
though open on all sides, would be easy to seal

1822
01:48:51,640 --> 01:48:55,960
off simply by closing the airport, because distances preclude rapid

1823
01:48:56,039 --> 01:49:01,479
road movements from two other major centers of the country. Helsinki,

1824
01:49:01,520 --> 01:49:04,840
on the other hand, would be spatially convenient because, though

1825
01:49:04,880 --> 01:49:06,920
not remote from the rest of the country, it is

1826
01:49:06,960 --> 01:49:10,920
surrounded by the sea and lake, so that a number

1827
01:49:10,960 --> 01:49:17,640
of roadblocks would effectively seal it focal traffic points. The

1828
01:49:17,680 --> 01:49:19,720
site of tanks in the main squares of the capital

1829
01:49:19,760 --> 01:49:22,119
city has become a symbol of the coup, but is

1830
01:49:22,159 --> 01:49:25,239
also an expression of a very real practical requirement the

1831
01:49:25,359 --> 01:49:27,680
need to establish a physical presence in the center of

1832
01:49:27,680 --> 01:49:31,119
the political activity. Every capital city has an area that

1833
01:49:31,239 --> 01:49:34,479
is the local equivalent of Whitehall in the United Kingdom

1834
01:49:34,720 --> 01:49:38,159
or Pennsylvania Avenue Blocks near the White House in the

1835
01:49:38,279 --> 01:49:42,880
United States, where the main political administrative facilities are concentrated.

1836
01:49:43,520 --> 01:49:46,399
We will select and defend certain positions around and within

1837
01:49:46,439 --> 01:49:48,960
this area, and by doing so, we will achieve a

1838
01:49:49,039 --> 01:49:52,760
variety of aims. A. The positions will form a ring

1839
01:49:52,880 --> 01:49:56,479
around the main area within which our active teams will operate,

1840
01:49:56,920 --> 01:49:59,720
so as to protect them from any hostile forces that

1841
01:49:59,760 --> 01:50:03,880
may have penetrated the capital city. B they will assist

1842
01:50:03,920 --> 01:50:07,279
in establishing our authority by giving visual evidence of our power.

1843
01:50:07,800 --> 01:50:11,319
And C they will filter movement to and from the area,

1844
01:50:11,479 --> 01:50:15,000
thus enabling us to capture those whom we have been

1845
01:50:15,119 --> 01:50:21,600
unable to arrest directly. Another figure with showing how you

1846
01:50:21,640 --> 01:50:24,479
would do that. And this looks like a pretty urban area,

1847
01:50:25,439 --> 01:50:27,319
or its designed to be. It looks like there's an

1848
01:50:27,359 --> 01:50:33,680
airport right here on the outskirts Yea, a coastal city.

1849
01:50:35,279 --> 01:50:39,279
Speaker 2: Which many most capitals in the world are YEP.

1850
01:50:40,920 --> 01:50:45,039
Speaker 1: In order to achieve these difficult objectives, our blocking positions

1851
01:50:45,119 --> 01:50:48,680
must be individually strong, Otherwise they will tempt any extent

1852
01:50:48,760 --> 01:50:52,760
loyalist forces into a counter attack. In any case, unless

1853
01:50:52,800 --> 01:50:55,600
adequately staffed, they will be unable to act as efficient

1854
01:50:55,640 --> 01:51:00,800
filters to individual movements. We must therefore resist temptations to

1855
01:51:00,840 --> 01:51:05,079
secure every important location by blocking positions that are individually weak.

1856
01:51:05,920 --> 01:51:08,520
As only a few of the possible locations will in

1857
01:51:08,560 --> 01:51:11,439
fact be covered, it is essential to select them with

1858
01:51:11,560 --> 01:51:15,720
special care. Focal traffic points will be easier to select

1859
01:51:15,720 --> 01:51:19,880
in a coastal or raverne city where a definite shape

1860
01:51:19,880 --> 01:51:22,600
has been imposed on the capital city and on the

1861
01:51:22,640 --> 01:51:25,760
traffic flows within it. This is illustrated in figure four

1862
01:51:25,800 --> 01:51:29,079
point five. In each particular case, the area which is

1863
01:51:29,119 --> 01:51:32,039
the center of political and bureaucratic activity will be well

1864
01:51:32,079 --> 01:51:34,640
known to the local inhabitants. Therefore, it will be a

1865
01:51:34,640 --> 01:51:37,760
matter of selecting a perimeter of straight and fairly broad

1866
01:51:37,760 --> 01:51:40,960
streets at the intersection of which we will establish our

1867
01:51:41,000 --> 01:51:45,199
blocking positions. The avenues in boulevards of Paris or ideal

1868
01:51:45,279 --> 01:51:51,640
From this point of view, airports and other transport facilities.

1869
01:51:52,439 --> 01:51:55,119
One of the classic moves in the period immediately following

1870
01:51:55,159 --> 01:51:57,399
the coup is the closure of airports in the cancellation

1871
01:51:57,479 --> 01:51:59,960
of all flights. This is part of the general tax,

1872
01:52:00,199 --> 01:52:03,680
which aims at freezing the situation by preventing the uncontrolled

1873
01:52:03,680 --> 01:52:08,039
flow of people information. There will also be other more

1874
01:52:08,279 --> 01:52:11,279
specific objectives. By closing the airport, we will prevent the

1875
01:52:11,399 --> 01:52:14,119
escape of those governmental leaders whom we have been unable

1876
01:52:14,159 --> 01:52:17,520
to arrest. We will also prevent any inflow of loyalist

1877
01:52:17,560 --> 01:52:20,840
forces into the area of the capital city. Because of

1878
01:52:20,880 --> 01:52:23,439
the short time frame in which secut takes place, air

1879
01:52:23,479 --> 01:52:26,840
transport will be of very great importance. Either we or

1880
01:52:26,880 --> 01:52:29,479
the government could tip the balance of forces by flying

1881
01:52:29,520 --> 01:52:34,880
in quite small contingents of our respective supporters. The size

1882
01:52:34,880 --> 01:52:37,279
of the forces that can be moved by air may

1883
01:52:37,399 --> 01:52:40,000
well be very small, but in the context of the

1884
01:52:40,039 --> 01:52:43,159
delicate balance of the active phase of the coup, that

1885
01:52:43,239 --> 01:52:49,239
could still play a decisive role. Air transport is, however,

1886
01:52:49,640 --> 01:52:52,840
very vulnerable insofar as it still relies on long and

1887
01:52:52,920 --> 01:52:56,279
interrupted landing strips. Therefore, if at all possible, we should

1888
01:52:56,279 --> 01:52:59,199
avoid having to rely on it to the extent that

1889
01:52:59,239 --> 01:53:02,560
we are into tenant of support arriving by air. We

1890
01:53:02,600 --> 01:53:05,560
should prevent the use of all airfields in and around

1891
01:53:05,560 --> 01:53:08,520
the area of the capital city some of these airfields

1892
01:53:08,560 --> 01:53:10,840
will be military ones, but even if they are not,

1893
01:53:11,319 --> 01:53:14,039
they may still be heavily guarded. This could be a

1894
01:53:14,079 --> 01:53:18,520
serious obstacle if the government still controls significant military forces

1895
01:53:18,560 --> 01:53:21,800
outside the capital city, and if transport planes are available

1896
01:53:21,800 --> 01:53:26,000
to bring them in. Seizing a defended airfield will certainly

1897
01:53:26,039 --> 01:53:29,119
be difficult, but denying the use of one is very easy.

1898
01:53:29,600 --> 01:53:32,239
A few vehicles parked on the runway, either by covert

1899
01:53:32,319 --> 01:53:35,399
means or with a little cooperation from the inside, and

1900
01:53:35,520 --> 01:53:38,279
covered by a small fire team to prevent them from

1901
01:53:38,359 --> 01:53:42,399
being moved, will suffice to neutralize an entire airport. A

1902
01:53:42,439 --> 01:53:45,880
few warning shots from suitable positions could also prevent any

1903
01:53:46,000 --> 01:53:47,399
landings taking place.

1904
01:53:49,600 --> 01:53:51,840
Speaker 2: Just a great point, I mean force is less important

1905
01:53:51,840 --> 01:53:54,079
than the ability to implement force.

1906
01:53:56,159 --> 01:54:01,000
Speaker 1: Yes, now, most people don't understand that the difference between

1907
01:54:01,000 --> 01:54:06,800
force and violence, and there are distinct differences when used

1908
01:54:06,800 --> 01:54:08,720
properly and when used strategically.

1909
01:54:10,560 --> 01:54:12,720
Speaker 2: And like you said, if you park something on the runway,

1910
01:54:12,760 --> 01:54:15,319
the runway is out of use, which is even better

1911
01:54:15,359 --> 01:54:17,039
than blowing it up, because now you can use in

1912
01:54:17,119 --> 01:54:17,560
the future.

1913
01:54:19,399 --> 01:54:22,800
Speaker 1: Other organized forms of transport will only rarely be important

1914
01:54:22,840 --> 01:54:26,680
in moditored conditions. In many undeveloped countries, railways play a

1915
01:54:26,800 --> 01:54:30,520
very marginal role in the transport structure. Even where they

1916
01:54:30,560 --> 01:54:33,760
are important economically, they will often be removed from the

1917
01:54:33,760 --> 01:54:36,800
main population centers, having been built to connect mines and

1918
01:54:36,840 --> 01:54:39,720
plantations with deep sea ports as part of the colonial

1919
01:54:39,760 --> 01:54:43,560
export economy, rather than as links between the main population

1920
01:54:43,760 --> 01:54:47,000
centers in Europe. In those parts of Latin America where

1921
01:54:47,039 --> 01:54:49,800
this is not the case, railways will still be unimportant

1922
01:54:50,079 --> 01:54:52,439
from our point of view because of the time element.

1923
01:54:52,920 --> 01:54:56,359
In any case, railways are extremely easy to neutralize. In

1924
01:54:56,359 --> 01:54:59,399
the nineteen twenty six Coup and Poland stage by Joseph

1925
01:54:59,520 --> 01:55:08,239
Pizil pills sub Ski jose Pilzutski, thank you, a great

1926
01:55:08,359 --> 01:55:11,520
deal of the action revolved around the railway system, but

1927
01:55:11,680 --> 01:55:15,279
railborn troops never arrived in time to decide the issue.

1928
01:55:15,600 --> 01:55:18,760
Both sides found it easy to prevent the others movements,

1929
01:55:19,079 --> 01:55:22,920
though not to ensure their own. Where As in Ethiopia

1930
01:55:22,960 --> 01:55:26,880
the railways are important, or rather the single Addasset Ababa

1931
01:55:27,439 --> 01:55:32,640
Djibouti railway line is important. Technical neutralization should be used.

1932
01:55:33,600 --> 01:55:35,800
Yeah railways really yeah no.

1933
01:55:35,960 --> 01:55:38,359
Speaker 2: The big problem with the railway is, you know, anywhere

1934
01:55:38,399 --> 01:55:41,279
along the line somebody can take it out of action

1935
01:55:41,399 --> 01:55:44,920
by just taking a couple of links out, and nobody

1936
01:55:44,960 --> 01:55:47,680
in the world has enough personnel to guard every single

1937
01:55:47,680 --> 01:55:48,439
inch of railway.

1938
01:55:49,960 --> 01:55:52,600
Speaker 1: Yeah. And also, well, the good thing about doing that

1939
01:55:52,680 --> 01:55:55,960
too is it's not hard to build. I mean, if

1940
01:55:56,000 --> 01:55:59,359
you start taking out runways, it's a lot easier to

1941
01:55:59,720 --> 01:56:03,039
put rail back in that it is to rebuild a runway.

1942
01:56:03,279 --> 01:56:04,640
Speaker 2: Yeah. And a lot of times you don't even have

1943
01:56:04,720 --> 01:56:07,760
to take off or takeout pieces of railway. You just

1944
01:56:07,800 --> 01:56:11,079
have to There are technical means for blocking certain areas,

1945
01:56:11,079 --> 01:56:13,800
and if you control those key choke points, you know

1946
01:56:14,239 --> 01:56:15,159
you control everything.

1947
01:56:16,119 --> 01:56:21,039
Speaker 1: Yep. Railways rely on a technical chain system par excellence,

1948
01:56:21,159 --> 01:56:24,640
and if a single section of rail or signals is sabotaged,

1949
01:56:24,640 --> 01:56:27,680
the whole system will temporarily stop. The gap between two

1950
01:56:27,760 --> 01:56:30,920
sections of rail is easily crossed, but probably there will

1951
01:56:30,920 --> 01:56:35,439
be no rolling stock on the other side public buildings.

1952
01:56:36,239 --> 01:56:38,359
The needs to provide the bureaucracy and the masses with

1953
01:56:38,479 --> 01:56:40,800
visual evidence of the reality and power of the coup

1954
01:56:40,840 --> 01:56:44,439
is one of the continuing elements in our analysis. Otherwise

1955
01:56:44,680 --> 01:56:46,760
this will be the least defined in the coherent of

1956
01:56:46,760 --> 01:56:49,760
our groups of targets. The buildings. We will have to

1957
01:56:49,800 --> 01:56:53,319
seize and include the residences of these government leaders whom

1958
01:56:53,319 --> 01:56:56,079
we have selected for arrest, and those buildings that house

1959
01:56:56,119 --> 01:56:59,239
facilities we require, such as radio tell as the radio

1960
01:56:59,279 --> 01:57:02,399
television builduilding. In the first case, it will be a

1961
01:57:02,399 --> 01:57:05,359
matter of a brief penetration to achieve capture or arrest.

1962
01:57:05,640 --> 01:57:07,560
In the second, however, we will have to seize and

1963
01:57:07,600 --> 01:57:11,159
occupy the building and perhaps resist attempts to make made

1964
01:57:11,199 --> 01:57:15,000
to recapture it. But there will be other official buildings

1965
01:57:15,000 --> 01:57:17,399
we will also have to occupy or at any rate

1966
01:57:17,439 --> 01:57:21,199
control the access to those can only be loosely defined

1967
01:57:21,199 --> 01:57:25,159
as those buildings whose possession is associated with the possession

1968
01:57:25,239 --> 01:57:27,399
of political power, so.

1969
01:57:27,399 --> 01:57:30,439
Speaker 2: Things like the internal security forces, the Ministry of Interior.

1970
01:57:31,640 --> 01:57:34,800
Speaker 1: Most countries have some form of elected assembly of parliament

1971
01:57:34,880 --> 01:57:37,600
or its local equivalent, but in many of them political

1972
01:57:37,600 --> 01:57:40,840
power emanates from the palace of the president or other ruler,

1973
01:57:41,159 --> 01:57:43,520
or the central committee of the party. We should not

1974
01:57:43,520 --> 01:57:47,439
be deceived by constitutional fictions, and after spending so much

1975
01:57:47,520 --> 01:57:53,479
effort distinguishing between effective political power and its symbols, we

1976
01:57:53,520 --> 01:57:56,359
will not make the mistake of using our scarce resources

1977
01:57:56,399 --> 01:57:57,000
on the latter.

1978
01:57:57,760 --> 01:58:00,680
Speaker 2: Yet, one of The best example the in the recent

1979
01:58:00,760 --> 01:58:04,680
past is Liberia. Because Liberia when it was actually still

1980
01:58:04,680 --> 01:58:09,279
controlled by America Liberians, the actual descendants of American slaves

1981
01:58:09,279 --> 01:58:12,479
who are sent back there. Yeah, they had a constitutional

1982
01:58:12,520 --> 01:58:15,760
government which was essentially copied off of the United States.

1983
01:58:16,600 --> 01:58:19,960
But the reality is a huge amount of the power

1984
01:58:19,960 --> 01:58:23,359
in the country was exercised through the Grand Lodge of

1985
01:58:23,399 --> 01:58:26,840
the Freemasons, which we all immediately would question that as

1986
01:58:26,880 --> 01:58:30,159
a conspiracy theory, but the reality is it worked as

1987
01:58:30,159 --> 01:58:33,600
the fraternity for American Liberians that could be kept away

1988
01:58:33,600 --> 01:58:36,439
from outside view of the rest of the world. So

1989
01:58:36,760 --> 01:58:40,199
capturing that building and eliminating its ability to be used

1990
01:58:40,239 --> 01:58:43,640
was essential for natives in order to take away or yeah,

1991
01:58:43,720 --> 01:58:46,600
take away the organizing ability of the American Liberians.

1992
01:58:48,159 --> 01:58:51,159
Speaker 1: Nevertheless, there will be certain symbolic buildings which could play

1993
01:58:51,199 --> 01:58:54,039
an important role in the crucial transitional phase of the coup.

1994
01:58:54,520 --> 01:58:56,800
Their possession by one side or the other will act

1995
01:58:56,840 --> 01:58:58,640
as the signal to the masses and the rank and

1996
01:58:58,680 --> 01:59:02,439
file of the bureaucracy in the confused period whereas unclear

1997
01:59:02,479 --> 01:59:05,680
which side is in control. Does that sound like something

1998
01:59:05,760 --> 01:59:10,640
that they like the Alcazar and Toledo, Why Franco was

1999
01:59:10,680 --> 01:59:13,319
so held bents on making sure that it was preserved.

2000
01:59:13,720 --> 01:59:15,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, that's definitely part of it, right, I've

2001
01:59:15,800 --> 01:59:18,159
bean you know, the worst place you could probably get

2002
01:59:18,199 --> 01:59:21,479
political quotes from is a game of thrones. But was

2003
01:59:21,520 --> 01:59:24,640
a Tyrian used to always say, political power, you know,

2004
01:59:24,920 --> 01:59:26,680
exists where people believe it exists.

2005
01:59:26,800 --> 01:59:32,079
Speaker 1: So yeah, our possession of those symbols will then give

2006
01:59:32,159 --> 01:59:34,560
us the allegiance of those who were waiting to choose

2007
01:59:34,560 --> 01:59:38,960
one side or the other. Thus, though useless indirect material terms,

2008
01:59:39,199 --> 01:59:41,600
it may be worthwhile to seize those buildings which have

2009
01:59:41,640 --> 01:59:45,399
a symbolic value. In the Ghanakup of nineteen sixty six

2010
01:59:45,720 --> 01:59:51,319
that brought down the Kumwah regime, the very efficient and

2011
01:59:51,399 --> 01:59:54,319
practical minded leaders of the coup felt it necessary to

2012
01:59:54,399 --> 01:59:58,800
fight their way into the presidential residence flag Staff House.

2013
01:59:59,239 --> 02:00:05,000
Though it contained neither Kuma himself nor any important technical facilities,

2014
02:00:05,600 --> 02:00:09,359
they realize that though it was an empty symbol park salons,

2015
02:00:09,479 --> 02:00:12,199
its possession was essential to secure the support of the

2016
02:00:12,239 --> 02:00:16,800
acre masses, who naturally associated the control of political power

2017
02:00:17,199 --> 02:00:20,640
with that particular building. Fortunately, by the very nature of

2018
02:00:20,680 --> 02:00:23,239
such symbols, there will be one or at most two

2019
02:00:23,800 --> 02:00:27,359
such symbolic buildings whose possessions will be an essential requirement.

2020
02:00:29,079 --> 02:00:31,760
Apart from the purely symbolic buildings, there will be others

2021
02:00:31,760 --> 02:00:35,760
whose possession is highly desirable. These are the administrative headquarters

2022
02:00:35,760 --> 02:00:39,479
of the army, police and security services. Thus, in each case,

2023
02:00:39,520 --> 02:00:43,680
the group of targets will include the following a. The

2024
02:00:43,720 --> 02:00:46,520
seat of effective political power. This could be the royal

2025
02:00:46,600 --> 02:00:49,600
or presidential palace, or the building of the elected Assembly

2026
02:00:50,119 --> 02:00:57,600
or of the party presidentium, presidium or central Committee.

2027
02:00:57,840 --> 02:01:00,119
Speaker 2: Yeah, in the case of the modern world, usually can

2028
02:01:00,199 --> 02:01:03,319
identify that place because it has the most communications running

2029
02:01:03,319 --> 02:01:06,279
in and out of it, which obviously won't necessarily be

2030
02:01:06,520 --> 02:01:08,880
visible to the public as a whole, but in the

2031
02:01:08,920 --> 02:01:11,760
planning stage you're going to see that through a variety

2032
02:01:11,800 --> 02:01:15,800
of things, just like electromagnetic traffic or you know who's

2033
02:01:15,840 --> 02:01:17,840
wired the most into the communications. That were.

2034
02:01:19,319 --> 02:01:22,119
Speaker 1: The main administrative buildings, the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry

2035
02:01:22,119 --> 02:01:26,880
of the Interior, police and military headquarters if separate see

2036
02:01:26,880 --> 02:01:30,880
symbolic buildings. Often the appropriate building will fall into one

2037
02:01:31,039 --> 02:01:34,399
or another of the classifications above, where however, there is

2038
02:01:34,439 --> 02:01:37,279
a cultural lag between the development of the country's political

2039
02:01:37,279 --> 02:01:41,960
life and the traditional attitudes the masses will still associate

2040
02:01:41,960 --> 02:01:47,039
political power with an obsolete building. The coup will be

2041
02:01:47,039 --> 02:01:49,760
practically over in its active phase by the time the

2042
02:01:49,800 --> 02:01:53,039
citizenry wakes up and starts to investigate the possession of buildings,

2043
02:01:53,039 --> 02:01:57,039
symbolic or otherwise. We can therefore postpone the occupation of

2044
02:01:57,079 --> 02:02:00,600
some of these targets to the later stages, since in

2045
02:02:00,680 --> 02:02:03,760
direct practical terms, other targets will be more important or

2046
02:02:03,760 --> 02:02:06,239
at any rate, more urgent. The best way of dealing

2047
02:02:06,319 --> 02:02:09,000
with the symbolic and administrative targets will be to use

2048
02:02:09,039 --> 02:02:11,640
them as assembly points for those teams which have already

2049
02:02:11,720 --> 02:02:13,600
completed their primary mission.

2050
02:02:15,720 --> 02:02:18,159
Speaker 2: Yeah. Part of why, yeah, sorry, Part of why it's

2051
02:02:18,159 --> 02:02:21,760
important to point this out is because again, a coup,

2052
02:02:21,800 --> 02:02:24,119
an active coup, is going to minimize the amount of

2053
02:02:24,680 --> 02:02:27,399
communications that are done in the red right, the amount

2054
02:02:27,399 --> 02:02:30,319
of communications that the opposition of the public and see.

2055
02:02:30,680 --> 02:02:34,760
So using a symbolic building as a rallying point after

2056
02:02:34,840 --> 02:02:37,720
you've accomplished one phase is a is a great way

2057
02:02:37,760 --> 02:02:42,920
to you know, minimize communications beforehand and during it when

2058
02:02:42,920 --> 02:02:46,640
you're actively you know, doing things and you don't want

2059
02:02:46,960 --> 02:02:49,760
your communications are still in danger of being intercepted. It's

2060
02:02:49,760 --> 02:02:52,680
a way of, you know, setting a pre made rallying

2061
02:02:52,680 --> 02:02:54,039
point where people are going to show up as soon

2062
02:02:54,039 --> 02:02:57,439
as they've accomplished that their earlier phase, the earlier missions,

2063
02:02:57,439 --> 02:02:59,399
and you can go and assign them to future missions

2064
02:02:59,439 --> 02:03:04,359
again without compromising yourself, for without doing your communications in

2065
02:03:04,359 --> 02:03:06,359
someplace where the enemy can intercept.

2066
02:03:07,199 --> 02:03:13,239
Speaker 1: New heading neutralizing the political forces to particular groups, which

2067
02:03:13,359 --> 02:03:16,279
organized groups will be sufficiently strong to oppose us, even

2068
02:03:16,279 --> 02:03:18,279
if the voice of the government is silent and the

2069
02:03:18,319 --> 02:03:22,000
capital city is visibly in our hands. Not many, But

2070
02:03:22,079 --> 02:03:25,600
we must remember that even one well organized demonstration or

2071
02:03:25,600 --> 02:03:28,119
a well timed strike could pose a serious threat to

2072
02:03:28,159 --> 02:03:31,479
the coup in a delicate transitional phase, and so it

2073
02:03:31,560 --> 02:03:35,439
is essential to identify such groups and, once identified, to

2074
02:03:35,479 --> 02:03:38,560
neutralize them before the coup. Once it is known that

2075
02:03:38,560 --> 02:03:40,720
a coup has taken place, the leaders of the militant

2076
02:03:40,800 --> 02:03:46,159
organization or organizations concerned will immediately prepare for action. They

2077
02:03:46,239 --> 02:03:49,560
themselves will then be more difficult to arrest, and their

2078
02:03:49,680 --> 02:03:55,439
organizations will be halfway underground. In countries where political conflict

2079
02:03:55,479 --> 02:03:58,560
is limited to the verbal dimension, this kind of dramatic

2080
02:03:58,600 --> 02:04:01,960
and rapid response to political change will be unknown. But

2081
02:04:02,119 --> 02:04:06,680
elsewhere where political conflicts can be violent, where all organized forces,

2082
02:04:06,760 --> 02:04:09,880
whether primarily political or not, can be drawn into them

2083
02:04:10,239 --> 02:04:13,039
this type of response. This type of response is more

2084
02:04:13,159 --> 02:04:18,079
or less automatic. Islamist militias in the Middle East and

2085
02:04:18,159 --> 02:04:21,359
trade union movements in Southern Europe have little in common

2086
02:04:21,399 --> 02:04:25,159
except a their ability to respond in this way, and

2087
02:04:25,239 --> 02:04:28,199
b that even without the weaponry that some of them have,

2088
02:04:28,439 --> 02:04:31,119
they could be a real threat to the coup. We

2089
02:04:31,199 --> 02:04:34,000
will conduct our analysis in terms of those three types

2090
02:04:34,039 --> 02:04:38,079
of political forces, because their feature will largely subsume those

2091
02:04:38,119 --> 02:04:41,399
of other kinds of organized groups, which may be relevant

2092
02:04:41,399 --> 02:04:46,000
in particular countries in the United States or the United Kingdom,

2093
02:04:46,039 --> 02:04:50,720
for example, whether where neither trade unions, nor religious groups

2094
02:04:50,760 --> 02:04:53,720
nor political parties are sufficiently militant to oppose a coup

2095
02:04:54,039 --> 02:04:57,239
after it has ceased its initial targets. The groups which

2096
02:04:57,279 --> 02:05:00,880
may have this capability, such as paramat military movements of

2097
02:05:00,920 --> 02:05:04,159
the paranoid right, will be organized in a manner that

2098
02:05:04,279 --> 02:05:06,960
includes features of all three.

2099
02:05:07,479 --> 02:05:09,479
Speaker 2: It feels good to be a hero in their story.

2100
02:05:15,560 --> 02:05:17,359
Speaker 1: One of the points we must bear in mind is

2101
02:05:17,359 --> 02:05:20,279
that not all the organized groups considered important in normal

2102
02:05:20,279 --> 02:05:23,760
political life will also be important in the highly restricted

2103
02:05:23,800 --> 02:05:29,720
and spasmodic politics of the coup. Conversely, groups which in

2104
02:05:29,880 --> 02:05:34,319
ordinary political life are of little are of very limited

2105
02:05:34,439 --> 02:05:38,399
importance could emerge as real threats if, for example, we

2106
02:05:38,479 --> 02:05:41,840
failed to neutralize the organization of, say, the National Rifle

2107
02:05:41,880 --> 02:05:45,039
Association in the United States or the National Union of

2108
02:05:45,079 --> 02:05:48,720
Students in the United Kingdom. Their reaction, however in effectual

2109
02:05:48,760 --> 02:05:51,359
per se, could still endanger the coup by slowing down

2110
02:05:51,399 --> 02:05:54,600
the process of political stabilization, and as much as they

2111
02:05:54,800 --> 02:05:59,000
could provoke conflicts that might reopen the whole issue, other

2112
02:05:59,119 --> 02:06:02,279
more prudent groups would then re examine the possibility of

2113
02:06:02,359 --> 02:06:05,319
challenging our position, while the use of violence to stop

2114
02:06:05,359 --> 02:06:07,720
the agitation of the groups we have overlooked could lead

2115
02:06:07,720 --> 02:06:10,800
to further opposition, since the side effects of the violence

2116
02:06:10,800 --> 02:06:14,000
would increase the awareness of and hostility to the coup.

2117
02:06:15,039 --> 02:06:19,239
The easiest way to get the national Rifle Associations to

2118
02:06:19,319 --> 02:06:21,960
stand down in the event of a coup is just

2119
02:06:22,039 --> 02:06:26,920
like start spouting boomerisms. Yeah, just like throw some boomer

2120
02:06:26,920 --> 02:06:28,000
slogans at them.

2121
02:06:28,720 --> 02:06:30,159
Speaker 2: Or incorporate them in some way.

2122
02:06:31,760 --> 02:06:35,359
Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, I mean you're gonna have to You're gonna

2123
02:06:35,359 --> 02:06:38,920
have to convince them that this is you know the

2124
02:06:39,039 --> 02:06:41,239
you know, the solutions in nineteen eighty four or seventeen

2125
02:06:41,279 --> 02:06:42,960
seventy six or some shit like that.

2126
02:06:43,279 --> 02:06:46,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, and then you can always hypothetically mobile call for

2127
02:06:46,680 --> 02:06:49,880
them to assemble in different places and you don't. You

2128
02:06:49,920 --> 02:06:53,039
can neutralize them just by giving them tasks that are

2129
02:06:53,079 --> 02:06:57,640
outside of Yeah, yeah, seriously, I hear you.

2130
02:06:58,760 --> 02:07:02,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, no, I agree. I'm just I started thinking

2131
02:07:02,439 --> 02:07:04,199
what those tasks might be and I started laughing.

2132
02:07:04,520 --> 02:07:07,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, make them guard inland port just because the

2133
02:07:07,600 --> 02:07:11,239
corp of Engineers stopped dredging most inland waterways in the

2134
02:07:11,319 --> 02:07:13,199
US like twenty or thirty years ago, so a lot

2135
02:07:13,239 --> 02:07:17,920
of them can't really be used anymore. So it looks important,

2136
02:07:17,960 --> 02:07:19,800
but you know, they're not really used for anything.

2137
02:07:21,760 --> 02:07:25,479
Speaker 1: Finally, there are certain political forces which must not be neutralized.

2138
02:07:25,520 --> 02:07:27,880
Apart from those groups that have agreed to support us,

2139
02:07:28,560 --> 02:07:31,560
these are those groups that are generally regarded as extremists

2140
02:07:31,600 --> 02:07:35,319
but whose effective powers are limited. By allowing them nice

2141
02:07:35,319 --> 02:07:38,880
to be included, by allowing them a certain freedom of action,

2142
02:07:39,119 --> 02:07:42,119
we will give them an opportunity to oppose us, and

2143
02:07:42,159 --> 02:07:46,359
their opposition will have two favorable byproducts. We will be

2144
02:07:46,399 --> 02:07:48,840
able to gain the support of those political forces which

2145
02:07:48,920 --> 02:07:51,520
fear them more than us. We will be able to

2146
02:07:51,560 --> 02:07:55,319
step forward and fight other groups after having associated with them,

2147
02:07:56,119 --> 02:08:00,000
associated them with the extremists in question. This can, however,

2148
02:08:00,079 --> 02:08:02,760
be dangerous games to play. In the confused and dramatic

2149
02:08:02,880 --> 02:08:05,960
situation of the coup, the extremists could gain in power

2150
02:08:06,000 --> 02:08:08,720
and political support, and it is possible that the time

2151
02:08:08,760 --> 02:08:11,760
we have allowed them to discredit the opposition will work

2152
02:08:11,840 --> 02:08:20,600
in their favor. Religious organizations. In economically developed countries, religious

2153
02:08:20,680 --> 02:08:24,000
organizations no longer have much political power, though they may

2154
02:08:24,079 --> 02:08:28,239
still be important social force, which immediately meant NGOs.

2155
02:08:28,439 --> 02:08:33,760
Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, no, I'm sorry you were saying, sir.

2156
02:08:34,680 --> 02:08:37,199
Speaker 1: No, I was just saying, he says that they no

2157
02:08:37,279 --> 02:08:41,520
longer have much political power. Well, the ones they do

2158
02:08:41,600 --> 02:08:44,880
want political power now just become NGOs, and they do,

2159
02:08:45,039 --> 02:08:47,439
and they actually do have some political power.

2160
02:08:47,760 --> 02:08:47,920
Speaker 3: Yeah.

2161
02:08:47,960 --> 02:08:50,199
Speaker 2: And there's also a reason why the I think the

2162
02:08:50,279 --> 02:08:53,960
establishment left us so fearful of the Mormons. You know,

2163
02:08:54,039 --> 02:08:57,439
we may have serious theological criticisms of them and find

2164
02:08:57,479 --> 02:09:01,920
them rather milk toast, but it's easily it's easy to

2165
02:09:01,960 --> 02:09:04,000
conceive how in a circumstance like this they could be

2166
02:09:04,039 --> 02:09:05,319
an important counter force.

2167
02:09:06,720 --> 02:09:09,960
Speaker 1: The leaders of religious groups can be influential in social

2168
02:09:10,079 --> 02:09:13,119
and to a degree political life, but the allegiance of

2169
02:09:13,119 --> 02:09:16,039
the believers is rarely expressed by direct and forceful action

2170
02:09:16,119 --> 02:09:19,840
in the political field. In economically backward countries and in

2171
02:09:19,880 --> 02:09:23,880
those whose development is limited or very recent. It is otherwise,

2172
02:09:24,399 --> 02:09:27,239
where the newer technology of humans has only been recently

2173
02:09:27,279 --> 02:09:30,279
applied or not at all, the older technology of God

2174
02:09:30,359 --> 02:09:33,680
is still in paramount important still of paramount importance.

2175
02:09:34,039 --> 02:09:37,239
Speaker 2: Well as somebody of one specific ethnosectarian group could make

2176
02:09:37,239 --> 02:09:41,119
that claim.

2177
02:09:41,439 --> 02:09:44,199
Speaker 1: This can be a source of very considerable political power

2178
02:09:44,319 --> 02:09:47,520
to the organizations identified with the appropriate beliefs and able

2179
02:09:47,600 --> 02:09:50,960
to channel the sentiment of the believers. Leaving aside local

2180
02:09:51,079 --> 02:09:53,840
cults which are too fragmented to be important in terms

2181
02:09:53,880 --> 02:09:56,279
of national politics, and which in any case tend to

2182
02:09:56,279 --> 02:09:59,760
be a political we see that even universal religions will

2183
02:09:59,760 --> 02:10:03,920
differ in their degree of political involvement. The role of

2184
02:10:03,920 --> 02:10:06,760
the Catholic Church in Italy since the Second World War

2185
02:10:07,199 --> 02:10:09,479
illustrates the power that can be accumulated by a well

2186
02:10:09,600 --> 02:10:13,600
organized religious group, even when operating in circumstance is considered

2187
02:10:13,680 --> 02:10:17,960
unfavorable from the religious point of view. Though most male

2188
02:10:18,039 --> 02:10:21,479
Italians seldom or never go to church, Italian women are

2189
02:10:21,520 --> 02:10:25,279
keen and regular churchgoers. Italy being a democratic country where

2190
02:10:25,279 --> 02:10:27,760
women have the vote, it is obvious that if the

2191
02:10:27,840 --> 02:10:30,479
organized church is willing to direct its followers to vote

2192
02:10:30,520 --> 02:10:33,439
for a particular party, that party will gain the bulk

2193
02:10:33,479 --> 02:10:37,279
of the women's vote before it even opens its electoral campaigns.

2194
02:10:38,000 --> 02:10:40,840
Until the late nineteen sixties, the church was generally willing

2195
02:10:40,880 --> 02:10:44,479
to give such specific directions, and one particular party used

2196
02:10:44,479 --> 02:10:50,239
to benefit, the Democracia Christiania DC. Aided by its assured

2197
02:10:50,600 --> 02:10:54,000
majority of the female vote, the DC ruled Italy alone

2198
02:10:54,039 --> 02:10:58,840
in various coalitions from nineteen forty eight until it's nine

2199
02:10:59,000 --> 02:11:01,800
nineteen ninety to nineteen ninety one collapse under the attack

2200
02:11:02,239 --> 02:11:06,319
of investigative magistrates. Corruption accumulates when there is no alter

2201
02:11:07,479 --> 02:11:11,560
alternation of moderate ruling parties, long precluded in Italy by

2202
02:11:11,560 --> 02:11:15,640
the weight of the Communist Party. Corruption accumulates when there

2203
02:11:15,680 --> 02:11:19,159
is no altruism moderate ruling parties thinking of looked coued.

2204
02:11:19,319 --> 02:11:24,079
Speaker 2: But that would be one of many cases probably of that.

2205
02:11:25,079 --> 02:11:28,279
I think we've seen in the last two years that

2206
02:11:28,560 --> 02:11:30,359
in the UK that's very much a case with the

2207
02:11:30,359 --> 02:11:32,760
Conservatives the Tories, and.

2208
02:11:32,680 --> 02:11:34,880
Speaker 1: It did so largely because of the support it received

2209
02:11:34,920 --> 02:11:37,640
from the Catholic Church. It is hardly surprising, then, that

2210
02:11:37,680 --> 02:11:40,520
the Church was able to dominate the DC, and that

2211
02:11:40,800 --> 02:11:44,880
through the DC, it influenced every aspect of Italian national life.

2212
02:11:44,960 --> 02:11:48,119
After nineteen ninety one, however, Italy discovered that no other

2213
02:11:48,159 --> 02:11:51,520
political grouping could replicate the DC's successes in steering the

2214
02:11:51,560 --> 02:11:55,199
Italian economy. The post DC technocrats made the fatal mistake

2215
02:11:55,239 --> 02:11:59,159
of taking the muddled Italian economy into the all too

2216
02:11:59,239 --> 02:12:03,399
clear waters of the Euro After nineteen ninety four, Berlusconi

2217
02:12:03,520 --> 02:12:06,079
arrived to teach the Italians that there was something worse

2218
02:12:06,119 --> 02:12:10,000
than corruption, i e. Institutional paralysis to persists while the

2219
02:12:10,039 --> 02:12:13,079
supreme leader looks after his own business and his own

2220
02:12:13,159 --> 02:12:18,119
fulfilled personal life. Hence, Italy underwent the socially tragic consequences

2221
02:12:18,159 --> 02:12:22,560
of prolonged economic stagnation and chronic youth unemployment, which posts

2222
02:12:22,600 --> 02:12:25,960
Berlosconi leaders have failed to remedy as of twenty fifteen.

2223
02:12:26,479 --> 02:12:28,840
Speaker 2: The sentence where eats like it's written by somebody who's

2224
02:12:28,840 --> 02:12:30,000
extremely jealous.

2225
02:12:31,279 --> 02:12:37,319
Speaker 1: Or I mean has was Berlusconi particularly critical of a

2226
02:12:37,359 --> 02:12:37,960
certain group?

2227
02:12:39,479 --> 02:12:43,079
Speaker 2: Yeah, and again, I don't know enough about Italian politics

2228
02:12:43,079 --> 02:12:45,000
to make any judgment one way or the other.

2229
02:12:46,039 --> 02:12:52,760
Speaker 1: But just wait five minutes and it'll change. So this

2230
02:12:52,840 --> 02:12:56,479
is no vague influence exercised on a plane of generalized authority,

2231
02:12:56,680 --> 02:13:00,119
but rather a constant supervision of political activity conducted at

2232
02:13:00,119 --> 02:13:02,920
the provincial level by the bishops and at the national

2233
02:13:03,000 --> 02:13:06,119
level by the Pope and his associates. It's really weird

2234
02:13:06,119 --> 02:13:08,680
that Litwock is just going on about the Catholic Church.

2235
02:13:08,680 --> 02:13:11,640
I have no idea why he would bring them up.

2236
02:13:15,079 --> 02:13:17,920
At each level of the state bureaucracy, the Church directly

2237
02:13:18,039 --> 02:13:22,479
or indirectly exercises its influence on civil service jobs and promotions,

2238
02:13:22,680 --> 02:13:25,079
on the allocation of investment funds and of the various

2239
02:13:25,159 --> 02:13:29,159
kinds of government grants, on administrative decisions dealing with zoning

2240
02:13:29,159 --> 02:13:33,960
and building regulations. This influence has brought it rearwards. While

2241
02:13:34,000 --> 02:13:37,720
the facilities of the state bureaucracy have steadily deteriorated compared

2242
02:13:37,800 --> 02:13:41,960
with the dynamic private and semi state sector, the Catholic

2243
02:13:42,079 --> 02:13:46,880
Church's educational and religious facilities have steadily expanded, money to build,

2244
02:13:46,920 --> 02:13:49,920
and the permissions required to do so have never been lacking.

2245
02:13:50,439 --> 02:13:53,199
Speaker 2: Yeah, On that note, I think one of the interesting

2246
02:13:53,359 --> 02:13:55,720
looks just that the role of the Italian yeah, the

2247
02:13:55,760 --> 02:13:59,119
Catholic Church and Italian politics, these of all things that

2248
02:13:59,279 --> 02:14:01,760
HBO series is The Young Pope and the New Pope,

2249
02:14:02,199 --> 02:14:05,359
is that they actually look explicitly at the kind of

2250
02:14:05,439 --> 02:14:09,760
damage to the internal status quo of the Italian states,

2251
02:14:09,960 --> 02:14:13,359
that Italian state, that an actual conservative pope could actually

2252
02:14:13,359 --> 02:14:16,520
wreek on them.

2253
02:14:16,920 --> 02:14:19,760
Speaker 1: I need to watch those. I haven't watched them. End them.

2254
02:14:20,119 --> 02:14:22,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a I do. It's a rare case of

2255
02:14:22,600 --> 02:14:26,239
like a mainstream, you know, fiction series on Christianity. It's

2256
02:14:26,239 --> 02:14:27,119
actually really good.

2257
02:14:29,680 --> 02:14:31,960
Speaker 1: If we fail to neutralize the organization of the Church

2258
02:14:32,000 --> 02:14:35,119
in Italy, it could inspire and coordinate opposition to us

2259
02:14:35,159 --> 02:14:39,479
through its capillary network of parish churches. Parishioners are used

2260
02:14:39,760 --> 02:14:43,199
used to hearing political messages from the pulpit, priests used

2261
02:14:43,199 --> 02:14:46,680
to receiving detailed political briefs from the bishop, and the

2262
02:14:46,760 --> 02:14:50,720
latter receive their instructions from the Vatican. Our neutralization of

2263
02:14:50,760 --> 02:14:54,720
the telecommunications facility will not prevent the flow of instructions.

2264
02:14:54,960 --> 02:14:57,520
The Vatican maintains its own radio station and this could

2265
02:14:57,560 --> 02:15:00,880
be used to contact directly the organization through out the country.

2266
02:15:01,359 --> 02:15:04,279
Speaker 2: There's a reason why so many NGOs are now called Catholic,

2267
02:15:04,600 --> 02:15:08,960
at least in their title, despite having non Catholics running them.

2268
02:15:09,479 --> 02:15:12,640
Speaker 1: Isn't it insane that you can just start an NGO

2269
02:15:12,760 --> 02:15:15,119
and call it Catholic and like then you look at

2270
02:15:15,119 --> 02:15:18,239
the board of directors and every single one of them

2271
02:15:18,359 --> 02:15:19,960
is of a certain tribe.

2272
02:15:20,279 --> 02:15:22,439
Speaker 2: Non Catholic, Yeah.

2273
02:15:22,119 --> 02:15:24,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, non Catholic. Yeah yeah, let's call that. Let's call

2274
02:15:24,760 --> 02:15:28,840
it that. Yeah. The Catholic Church plays a similar role

2275
02:15:29,000 --> 02:15:31,720
in certain other countries, where it has a ninety nine

2276
02:15:31,720 --> 02:15:34,520
point nine percent nominal membership in the status of the

2277
02:15:34,640 --> 02:15:38,439
national religion, but the stronger state structure of Spain and Portugal,

2278
02:15:38,520 --> 02:15:41,560
let alone France, has denied at the preeminent position it

2279
02:15:41,600 --> 02:15:45,239
has in Italy. The intervention of the Church would however,

2280
02:15:45,680 --> 02:15:48,279
be a powerful factor in much of the Catholic world,

2281
02:15:48,319 --> 02:15:51,600
including South America, especially if the motive behind the coup

2282
02:15:51,720 --> 02:15:54,399
is identified as being anti clerical.

2283
02:15:54,520 --> 02:15:57,920
Speaker 2: Which has a long history of happening in Latin America,

2284
02:15:58,159 --> 02:16:01,159
like you know the Mexican coups in the early twentieth.

2285
02:16:00,760 --> 02:16:06,439
Speaker 1: Century, assassinating priests and El salvad or things like that.

2286
02:16:06,520 --> 02:16:13,079
I mean yes, yeah. Islam, which has the comprehensive nature

2287
02:16:13,079 --> 02:16:17,039
of a religion, a political system and a civilization, is

2288
02:16:17,119 --> 02:16:21,319
much decayed to culturally. Is much decayed culturally, but the

2289
02:16:21,359 --> 02:16:25,159
doctors of Al Azar University in Cairo, one of the

2290
02:16:25,159 --> 02:16:28,840
main theological institutions of the Muslim world, are periodically prompted

2291
02:16:28,880 --> 02:16:32,200
by the rule of the day, into openly political declarations.

2292
02:16:33,159 --> 02:16:35,840
No single leader in Islam has the authority of a pope,

2293
02:16:35,840 --> 02:16:39,639
but in each country, local religious leaders can still be important.

2294
02:16:40,319 --> 02:16:43,840
Even before its abrupt disappearance, the once very noisy theater

2295
02:16:43,959 --> 02:16:46,719
of Arab socialism did not impair in any way the

2296
02:16:46,760 --> 02:16:50,719
position of Islam, and governments that followed an extremely left

2297
02:16:50,760 --> 02:16:54,719
wing line at all. Foreign and some domestic matters were

2298
02:16:54,760 --> 02:16:58,879
still unwilling or unable to challenge the status of Islam

2299
02:16:59,239 --> 02:17:03,840
as the state religion. When such a course was tentatively

2300
02:17:03,920 --> 02:17:07,959
suggested by an obscure member of the nominally Baptist hence

2301
02:17:08,000 --> 02:17:11,760
nominally secular Syrian government, the leadership was forced to denounce

2302
02:17:11,760 --> 02:17:15,799
them officially. Whether this resilience means that the Islamic leadership

2303
02:17:15,840 --> 02:17:18,559
of particular countries could function as an act of political

2304
02:17:18,559 --> 02:17:22,520
forces another matter. The structures of Islam as an organized

2305
02:17:22,559 --> 02:17:26,639
religion are fossilized. The fluid and dynamic Islam of its

2306
02:17:26,680 --> 02:17:29,600
early days of conquest has been replaced by a dogmatic

2307
02:17:29,639 --> 02:17:33,319
and extremely conservative set of beliefs whose inflexibility is the

2308
02:17:33,360 --> 02:17:37,040
major cause of the present travails of the Muslim world.

2309
02:17:37,520 --> 02:17:40,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, just for the in American or Western audience, it's

2310
02:17:40,559 --> 02:17:44,079
it's really important to understand that within Islam there's a

2311
02:17:44,120 --> 02:17:47,840
huge difference in administration between Suis and Shiites, and Sunnis

2312
02:17:47,879 --> 02:17:51,639
are essentially congregationalists, which means, you know, every mosque is

2313
02:17:51,760 --> 02:17:55,559
essentially autonomous in terms of its hierarchy, whereas she Heites

2314
02:17:55,600 --> 02:17:59,479
actually have you know, a defined clerical authority. So it's

2315
02:17:59,479 --> 02:18:03,399
something more like more like the Catholic Church than Protestantanism

2316
02:18:03,479 --> 02:18:04,600
in terms of how it's wrong.

2317
02:18:06,760 --> 02:18:09,120
Speaker 1: When he says the fluid and dynamic Islam of its

2318
02:18:09,159 --> 02:18:12,559
early days of conquest, I'm wondering if he's referring specifically

2319
02:18:12,600 --> 02:18:15,719
to like seven eleven Spain through seven eleven through fourteen

2320
02:18:15,760 --> 02:18:16,559
ninety two Spain.

2321
02:18:17,040 --> 02:18:20,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I imagine he did. Which you know, we know

2322
02:18:20,239 --> 02:18:22,440
about one specific group that tend to do very well

2323
02:18:22,520 --> 02:18:25,319
under early Islam, but the reality is other groups. I mean,

2324
02:18:25,920 --> 02:18:29,920
there were no shores of Christians and Zoroastrians who were

2325
02:18:29,920 --> 02:18:34,879
elevated to an extremely high level. And yeah, they had

2326
02:18:35,200 --> 02:18:37,760
huge limitations on their political rights, but they were also

2327
02:18:37,760 --> 02:18:40,879
exempt for military service, which meant that they weren't the

2328
02:18:40,920 --> 02:18:42,159
people dying for their state.

2329
02:18:43,600 --> 02:18:45,879
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, something that I've said recently is that

2330
02:18:46,000 --> 02:18:49,000
you know, from studying that period seven eleven so fourteen

2331
02:18:49,079 --> 02:18:54,520
ninety two in Spain, I as a Christian, you would

2332
02:18:54,680 --> 02:18:58,920
feel more safe at that time in Spain under Moorish

2333
02:18:59,000 --> 02:19:03,399
rule than you would feel now under the regime that

2334
02:19:03,440 --> 02:19:05,120
we're under right.

2335
02:19:04,959 --> 02:19:08,040
Speaker 2: Now, Yeah, ironically right, I mean, Muslims are much less

2336
02:19:08,040 --> 02:19:10,920
of a threat in an Islamic state than they are

2337
02:19:11,559 --> 02:19:12,120
in the West.

2338
02:19:13,120 --> 02:19:18,040
Speaker 1: Yeap. By contrast, there has been a great deal of

2339
02:19:18,079 --> 02:19:21,799
fluidity and dynamism in the more or less violent Islamist

2340
02:19:21,799 --> 02:19:26,559
movements that exist outside official or traditional religious institutions, ranging

2341
02:19:26,600 --> 02:19:29,799
from the historic nineteen twenty eight Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt

2342
02:19:30,159 --> 02:19:35,000
al Ikwan al Muslimund which spread to Syria in the

2343
02:19:35,079 --> 02:19:38,200
nineteen sixties, and the Jahadi movements of Pakistan that spread

2344
02:19:38,200 --> 02:19:42,520
to Afghanistan after nineteen seventy nine, including Al Osama bin

2345
02:19:42,600 --> 02:19:47,079
Laden's al Qaeda, which for a while had global pretensions,

2346
02:19:47,440 --> 02:19:55,879
to the newest the Islamic state Daolat al Islamia, which

2347
02:19:55,920 --> 02:19:58,959
as of twenty fifteen boasted of its own caliph, i e.

2348
02:19:59,120 --> 02:20:02,879
The sole legitimate ruler of all Muslim nations everywhere and

2349
02:20:02,959 --> 02:20:06,280
of any territories ever ruled by Muslims, such as Spain's

2350
02:20:06,360 --> 02:20:07,760
and Andalucia.

2351
02:20:08,159 --> 02:20:10,079
Speaker 2: I want to remind everybody that the fact that the

2352
02:20:10,120 --> 02:20:13,680
is ri Isis's head called himself caliph is a lot

2353
02:20:13,719 --> 02:20:17,600
like the mayor of Orange County, California calling himself the

2354
02:20:17,639 --> 02:20:21,120
head of Christendom. It's it's a very pompous title that

2355
02:20:21,159 --> 02:20:23,760
nobody in the world outside of you know his direct

2356
02:20:23,799 --> 02:20:26,719
immediate support, and that's actually thought meant anything.

2357
02:20:28,120 --> 02:20:31,760
Speaker 1: And I would also like to remind people that Isis,

2358
02:20:31,879 --> 02:20:38,040
when they bombed Israel ten years ago, took out very

2359
02:20:38,040 --> 02:20:45,120
publicly to apologize. What the Jahadi groups have in common

2360
02:20:45,280 --> 02:20:49,440
are for rather odd characteristics. First, for reasons that are

2361
02:20:49,440 --> 02:20:52,159
not easy to explain. They are utterly obsessed with the

2362
02:20:52,239 --> 02:20:54,719
role of women in society, and rather the importance of

2363
02:20:54,760 --> 02:20:58,200
their exclusion from society and their reduction to a status

2364
02:20:58,239 --> 02:21:02,159
not far from that of valuable domestic animals, a status

2365
02:21:02,200 --> 02:21:06,239
limited to procreation as a cowca cattle rancher. I get

2366
02:21:06,280 --> 02:21:09,360
the point, and the servile service of their husbands in

2367
02:21:09,440 --> 02:21:12,799
and out of bed. Some groups are less restrictive, but

2368
02:21:12,840 --> 02:21:16,680
none of the Jahadi movements afford females any political role whatsoever.

2369
02:21:17,000 --> 02:21:20,040
They can fight, but only as suicide bombers. None allow

2370
02:21:20,120 --> 02:21:22,799
women to be educated beyond some capacity for reading the

2371
02:21:22,879 --> 02:21:27,360
Quran if that, and none believe that an unmarried woman

2372
02:21:27,520 --> 02:21:30,559
can have any professional existence of any sort, or even

2373
02:21:30,639 --> 02:21:34,000
drive a car. The widows might take in laundry and such.

2374
02:21:35,719 --> 02:21:39,920
Speaker 2: I don't deny his point about the sexi aggregation among

2375
02:21:40,079 --> 02:21:43,920
most Islamist groups, but I think it's more accurate to

2376
02:21:43,920 --> 02:21:46,559
say that it's a reaction to the West and the

2377
02:21:46,959 --> 02:21:49,959
transformation of gender relations in the West in the last century.

2378
02:21:50,639 --> 02:21:51,799
Anything inherent in.

2379
02:21:51,719 --> 02:21:56,959
Speaker 1: Islam absolutely, and I'm not going to argue with them

2380
02:21:57,000 --> 02:22:02,079
at all about restricting women from voting. Second, the jihadi

2381
02:22:02,159 --> 02:22:05,559
groups always speak in the name of Islam, period, but

2382
02:22:05,680 --> 02:22:09,319
they only act for Sunni Islam habitually, persecuting or simply

2383
02:22:09,440 --> 02:22:12,479
killing any non Sunni Muslim who falls into their hands.

2384
02:22:13,120 --> 02:22:20,000
Whether the twelve Vershia of Afghanistan, Iran, Lebanon, Pakistan, and Syria,

2385
02:22:20,559 --> 02:22:24,399
the fivers I Edi Shia of Yemen or the seven

2386
02:22:24,479 --> 02:22:30,360
er Ishmali Shia scattered worldwide, but also president Syria in

2387
02:22:30,360 --> 02:22:34,079
that regard, While Iran's great Satan is the United States,

2388
02:22:34,200 --> 02:22:38,040
as indeed it is for the Ayatolas who must rule

2389
02:22:38,120 --> 02:22:44,159
incurably pro American educated elites, for the jahadis the great

2390
02:22:44,200 --> 02:22:48,479
Satan is Iran, not an unhappy conjunction, and as much

2391
02:22:48,479 --> 02:22:52,360
as it sets equally murderous Shia Hezbalah and Sunni Jihadis

2392
02:22:52,440 --> 02:22:53,280
against each other.

2393
02:22:53,600 --> 02:22:56,239
Speaker 2: Now understanding this point, we can see why it's so

2394
02:22:56,319 --> 02:23:00,440
ironic that the neocons have always gone other way to

2395
02:23:00,520 --> 02:23:03,440
identify Sunni and she Had groups together, despite the fact

2396
02:23:03,440 --> 02:23:05,639
they hate each other even and more than they hate us.

2397
02:23:06,280 --> 02:23:10,879
And it shows the other strategic incompetence of trying to

2398
02:23:10,879 --> 02:23:15,120
equate those two groups when the last twenty something years

2399
02:23:15,159 --> 02:23:18,879
there could have been some made at reproach mont with

2400
02:23:18,920 --> 02:23:22,200
groups like our countries like Iran, in order to in

2401
02:23:22,360 --> 02:23:25,680
this threat and achieve some kind of lasting piece.

2402
02:23:26,799 --> 02:23:31,760
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, the redirection in Iraq was basically, we

2403
02:23:31,799 --> 02:23:35,879
need to stop empowering Shia and we're by doing that,

2404
02:23:35,920 --> 02:23:37,479
we're going to empower Sunnis.

2405
02:23:37,879 --> 02:23:41,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, in that whole issue. I mean, Scott Horten's talked

2406
02:23:41,040 --> 02:23:43,879
about at length and he's he's demonstrated right under the

2407
02:23:44,319 --> 02:23:47,879
Hussein regime. So the Bath Party in Iraq was largely

2408
02:23:48,520 --> 02:23:51,840
a vehicle for Sunni rule as opposed to what it

2409
02:23:51,920 --> 02:23:56,239
was in Syria. But at the same time, you know,

2410
02:23:56,280 --> 02:23:58,399
there's some amount of Shias who were co opped into

2411
02:23:58,440 --> 02:24:02,079
the Bath Party. There was some amount of of what

2412
02:24:02,120 --> 02:24:05,440
do you call it, Kurtish groups that were you know,

2413
02:24:06,079 --> 02:24:11,040
co opted despite being non Arabs. So yeah, it essentially

2414
02:24:11,600 --> 02:24:15,200
or essentially required the Sunni majority or Suning minority rather

2415
02:24:15,319 --> 02:24:17,799
to actually hold the political power in Iraq, and once

2416
02:24:17,840 --> 02:24:21,879
we eliminated them destroy the Bath Party. You know that Metashias,

2417
02:24:21,920 --> 02:24:26,040
who are the majority at least in the part below quirderstand,

2418
02:24:26,479 --> 02:24:29,040
are going to win in any democratic relation or any

2419
02:24:29,040 --> 02:24:34,840
democratic situation, which turn brought Iraq into alignment with Iran,

2420
02:24:35,680 --> 02:24:37,879
which is why how we end up in a situation

2421
02:24:38,040 --> 02:24:43,280
where the government bought backed Iraqi official government militia. The

2422
02:24:43,319 --> 02:24:46,600
head of that was assassinated under Trump, you know, and

2423
02:24:46,680 --> 02:24:49,079
this is somebody that was empowered by US, So it's

2424
02:24:49,680 --> 02:24:54,600
the pure asinine incompetence of America's policy in the Middle East.

2425
02:24:57,559 --> 02:25:00,719
Speaker 1: Third, the jihadi groups are of course and Western and

2426
02:25:00,760 --> 02:25:04,680
reject Western artifacts, clothing, et cetera, as well as Western ideas,

2427
02:25:05,040 --> 02:25:08,719
but they are keen and sometimes talented emulators of Western

2428
02:25:08,799 --> 02:25:14,360
media techniques. Fourth, the Jahades consistently attract volunteers who are

2429
02:25:14,399 --> 02:25:18,200
notably more committed and therefore potentially more effective than the

2430
02:25:18,239 --> 02:25:22,120
salaried soldiers and police who confront them across the Muslim world,

2431
02:25:22,399 --> 02:25:25,639
And because of their skill in utilizing Western media techniques,

2432
02:25:25,920 --> 02:25:28,959
members of the Jahati movement are able to attract volunteers

2433
02:25:29,000 --> 02:25:32,639
from the West who bring their valuable Western skills with them.

2434
02:25:32,840 --> 02:25:34,959
The leader of the nine to eleven attack on New York,

2435
02:25:35,000 --> 02:25:39,120
for instance, was a German engineer of Egyptian origin.

2436
02:25:39,520 --> 02:25:39,680
Speaker 3: Yea.

2437
02:25:40,440 --> 02:25:42,920
Speaker 2: Again, one of the things that I think our establishment,

2438
02:25:43,040 --> 02:25:46,639
especially the media, fails to recognize is that people in

2439
02:25:46,639 --> 02:25:49,200
the world, many of them, actually believe in the religions

2440
02:25:49,239 --> 02:25:51,239
and are willing to kill and die for them. And

2441
02:25:51,319 --> 02:25:55,319
it's not just a you know, a window dressing that

2442
02:25:55,639 --> 02:26:01,000
you know, the establishment assumes it is for everyone.

2443
02:26:01,280 --> 02:26:03,719
Speaker 1: Sandy and I were the other night we're trying to

2444
02:26:03,760 --> 02:26:08,120
figure something out. Maybe you can help with it. Do

2445
02:26:08,159 --> 02:26:10,719
you know what an Can you describe exactly what an

2446
02:26:10,760 --> 02:26:11,440
Alohite is?

2447
02:26:13,639 --> 02:26:13,879
Speaker 3: Okay?

2448
02:26:14,000 --> 02:26:18,879
Speaker 2: Yeah? In fact, yeah, here's a good point. And depending

2449
02:26:18,879 --> 02:26:21,399
on how long it takes me explained. All right, it

2450
02:26:21,440 --> 02:26:26,559
is an endogamous ethno sectarian group in the Levant that

2451
02:26:26,719 --> 02:26:30,040
is nominally Schii Muslim. All right. When I say endogamous,

2452
02:26:30,079 --> 02:26:33,959
it means that it originated in one ethnic group of

2453
02:26:34,000 --> 02:26:38,479
people who founded was it all news Ariah, which I

2454
02:26:38,520 --> 02:26:40,680
think I'm mispronouncing it, but that was the name of

2455
02:26:40,760 --> 02:26:43,479
the religious leader out of Iraq who formed this group

2456
02:26:44,440 --> 02:26:48,000
century years ago. Endogamous means it's descended from those people.

2457
02:26:48,159 --> 02:26:51,239
Unlike the Druids, which are another endogamous group in the area.

2458
02:26:51,319 --> 02:26:53,760
I think the Alo Whites actually allow some amount of

2459
02:26:53,799 --> 02:26:58,840
integration and conversion and the children of mixed marriages to

2460
02:26:58,879 --> 02:27:05,159
actually integrate in the community. But again it's an endogamous community.

2461
02:27:04,479 --> 02:27:08,680
It has what are called esoteric elements, which means that

2462
02:27:08,799 --> 02:27:11,239
they have the outer form of the religion and then

2463
02:27:11,600 --> 02:27:15,159
fully initiated members of the religion get further secret knowledge

2464
02:27:15,159 --> 02:27:17,479
as part of it, which is something that historically saw

2465
02:27:17,479 --> 02:27:22,799
in many religious movements. So the outward ward facing part

2466
02:27:22,840 --> 02:27:26,200
of the religion is essentially si idislm Inner movement, as

2467
02:27:26,319 --> 02:27:29,239
far as we can tell, is probably some remnant of

2468
02:27:29,239 --> 02:27:34,360
occulted Christianity with Gnosticism, with maybe even Hinduism or Buddhism

2469
02:27:34,520 --> 02:27:37,799
because they believe in reincarnation and things like that. So again,

2470
02:27:38,000 --> 02:27:42,200
this is essentially a ethno religious tribal group, much like

2471
02:27:42,280 --> 02:27:45,319
certain other groups in the region that has a close

2472
02:27:45,520 --> 02:27:49,559
society that in which it's not just a matter being

2473
02:27:49,600 --> 02:27:51,760
born into the group because that's a prerequisite, but you

2474
02:27:51,799 --> 02:27:54,360
actually have to be initiated into inner circle in order

2475
02:27:54,399 --> 02:27:57,840
to become a religious excuse me, a leader within that community,

2476
02:27:58,159 --> 02:27:59,959
which means you have a group that's forced to deal

2477
02:28:00,040 --> 02:28:03,719
with everybody, usually on asymmetric terms, meaning other people have

2478
02:28:03,799 --> 02:28:06,200
more power than them, so they have to navigate their

2479
02:28:06,239 --> 02:28:10,399
way historically, but it has a reinforcing discipline function that

2480
02:28:10,479 --> 02:28:13,360
requires them to, you know, commit their loyalty to the

2481
02:28:13,440 --> 02:28:18,120
organization and its movement and its ideas in order to

2482
02:28:18,120 --> 02:28:21,559
to you know, become a leader in that community, which

2483
02:28:21,600 --> 02:28:24,280
means it you know, it's forced to both deal with

2484
02:28:24,319 --> 02:28:27,760
the outside world while maintaining cohesive and I know I'm

2485
02:28:27,840 --> 02:28:33,239
rambling here, but yeah, so that religious ethnic community exists

2486
02:28:33,280 --> 02:28:35,879
primarily in the Levant. So in Syria, there are small

2487
02:28:36,000 --> 02:28:39,159
numbers of them in Lebanon. There are even some in

2488
02:28:39,399 --> 02:28:42,879
Israel in the goal On Heights, some of whom even

2489
02:28:42,920 --> 02:28:46,200
have Israeli citizenship. I don't know if that answers your

2490
02:28:46,280 --> 02:28:46,840
question or not.

2491
02:28:48,600 --> 02:28:50,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, it does, he asked the question, and I from

2492
02:28:50,879 --> 02:28:54,319
my study, I just said it's Scheite Muslim. But it

2493
02:28:54,399 --> 02:28:57,479
seemed like there was like they were closer to Christianity

2494
02:28:58,079 --> 02:29:00,920
than probably anything else as far as.

2495
02:29:00,879 --> 02:29:04,760
Speaker 2: We can tell. And again that's one second. Sorry, but

2496
02:29:05,280 --> 02:29:06,959
so yeah, as far as we can tell, part of

2497
02:29:06,959 --> 02:29:12,840
the problem is because it's a closed esoteric religion, we

2498
02:29:12,920 --> 02:29:15,520
only have a vague idea of what the inner teachings

2499
02:29:15,639 --> 02:29:19,319
of the movement are because they're not communicated to outsiders,

2500
02:29:19,319 --> 02:29:23,840
and like any other esoteric movement, when it when somebody

2501
02:29:23,840 --> 02:29:26,360
spills the beans, it's not really clear if they're telling

2502
02:29:26,399 --> 02:29:30,079
the truth or just making shit up. So yeah, we

2503
02:29:30,120 --> 02:29:31,680
only have a vague idea of what it is.

2504
02:29:33,680 --> 02:29:35,799
Speaker 1: All right, We only got a few more pages here

2505
02:29:35,799 --> 02:29:38,040
and then we'll get out of here on this little

2506
02:29:38,079 --> 02:29:41,879
part right here, The political sterility of official Islam in

2507
02:29:41,920 --> 02:29:44,639
recent times has meant that though it has been used

2508
02:29:44,639 --> 02:29:48,319
by governments to propagate their political initiatives, Islamic leaders have

2509
02:29:48,399 --> 02:29:53,479
only spoken out in response to direct attacks on religious orthodoxy. Consequently,

2510
02:29:53,600 --> 02:29:57,000
unless our coup has a definite anti Islamic coloring, religious

2511
02:29:57,079 --> 02:30:01,799
leaders in Muslim countries will not initiate any action against us. Clearly,

2512
02:30:01,840 --> 02:30:05,600
we must prevent our opponents from supposing from imposing such

2513
02:30:05,600 --> 02:30:10,079
a coloring on our coup. Back in the nineteen sixties

2514
02:30:10,079 --> 02:30:14,440
and nineteen seventies, in the intermittent political warfare between Arab

2515
02:30:14,520 --> 02:30:17,600
socialists and the monarchies, while the latter was accused of

2516
02:30:17,639 --> 02:30:21,920
being tools of the Zionist imperialist oil monopolies, the former

2517
02:30:22,000 --> 02:30:27,520
were accused of wanting to eradicate Islam with their godless beliefs. Actually,

2518
02:30:27,879 --> 02:30:31,159
even the self styled progressives did not dream of challenging Islam.

2519
02:30:31,840 --> 02:30:35,079
These days, with Arab socialism along dead, the competition of

2520
02:30:35,200 --> 02:30:39,200
rulers with ultra Islamist chihadis has resulted in the further

2521
02:30:39,319 --> 02:30:43,520
Islamization of the Arab world. Such a phenomenon is equally

2522
02:30:43,559 --> 02:30:46,879
present in Turkey, but for a very different reason. The

2523
02:30:46,920 --> 02:30:50,600
downfall of the military based and fiercely secular establishment has

2524
02:30:50,639 --> 02:30:54,879
allowed the village Islam of the unwashed Anatolian masses its

2525
02:30:54,920 --> 02:30:58,680
democratic expression, and what they want is a decidedly illiberal

2526
02:30:58,719 --> 02:31:02,799
return to Ottoman practice is starting with headdresses on all women.

2527
02:31:04,000 --> 02:31:06,719
This is a regression that the loudly Islamist Justice and

2528
02:31:06,760 --> 02:31:09,479
Development Party, I'm not going to pronounce that it's AKP,

2529
02:31:10,280 --> 02:31:13,959
has been happy to deliver, along with frenetic mosque building,

2530
02:31:14,159 --> 02:31:19,319
even on previously strictly secular university campuses and sundi Islamic

2531
02:31:19,399 --> 02:31:24,440
policies on all matters, starting with foreign policy. Yeah, the Turkish.

2532
02:31:24,000 --> 02:31:26,799
Speaker 2: Ak Yeah, not to inter with that. It's a good

2533
02:31:26,840 --> 02:31:30,799
time interrupt. Yeah. So the Kamalis regime named for Kamal

2534
02:31:30,840 --> 02:31:35,920
added Turk, who basically transformed the remnant of the old

2535
02:31:35,959 --> 02:31:38,920
Ottoman Empire into modern state of Turkey as a republic,

2536
02:31:39,040 --> 02:31:43,319
a secular republic. There were some very key rules that

2537
02:31:43,360 --> 02:31:48,760
were enforced. Number one basically religious institutions. Number one, they

2538
02:31:48,760 --> 02:31:51,280
had to be approved by the state. Number two could

2539
02:31:51,319 --> 02:31:54,680
not have any direct involvement in the state. They essentially

2540
02:31:54,719 --> 02:31:59,040
practiced the French concept of leaeste, which means more than

2541
02:31:59,079 --> 02:32:03,280
just secularization and it means basically the non are It

2542
02:32:03,440 --> 02:32:08,399
basically forbids the public integration of religion into civil and

2543
02:32:08,440 --> 02:32:11,959
political life outside of the religious institution, which is why

2544
02:32:12,479 --> 02:32:16,079
in France so often they have public debates about head

2545
02:32:16,079 --> 02:32:18,440
scars and things, because it's for a long time it

2546
02:32:18,479 --> 02:32:20,520
was actually illegal in France even to wear a clerical

2547
02:32:20,559 --> 02:32:22,799
collar outside of church if you're a priest, because you

2548
02:32:22,840 --> 02:32:26,639
cannot wear or have any kind of public influence of

2549
02:32:26,680 --> 02:32:29,639
religion into civil and political life. So that was the

2550
02:32:29,680 --> 02:32:31,719
thing that happened in Turkey, like he said, until very

2551
02:32:31,760 --> 02:32:36,159
recently with the end of the political influence of the

2552
02:32:36,200 --> 02:32:39,760
military on politics. At the same time, the akap is

2553
02:32:39,879 --> 02:32:43,079
kind of interesting because and I'm not approving of it anyway,

2554
02:32:43,159 --> 02:32:46,959
but it's not quite as as lomist as we would think, right.

2555
02:32:47,079 --> 02:32:52,440
It's it's essentially like a Turkish identitarian political movement in

2556
02:32:52,479 --> 02:32:55,360
which Islam is a key waight or key aspect of

2557
02:32:55,360 --> 02:32:58,680
the society, the same way that like you know, our

2558
02:32:58,760 --> 02:33:02,719
Catholic myths is essential to being Spanish, despite the fact

2559
02:33:02,760 --> 02:33:05,479
that like you know, we said that Catholic Church cans

2560
02:33:05,559 --> 02:33:09,120
not have a big political role in or Spanish society.

2561
02:33:09,719 --> 02:33:15,360
So building mosgain even in you know, public universities, which

2562
02:33:15,799 --> 02:33:18,040
to us that may seem weird right now, but keep

2563
02:33:18,079 --> 02:33:20,920
in mind most old universities in the US had chapels

2564
02:33:20,959 --> 02:33:23,639
on them, even though they've probably have been secularized at

2565
02:33:23,639 --> 02:33:28,680
this point. Head scars are also a really weird aspect

2566
02:33:28,760 --> 02:33:32,440
of Turkish culture because it's as much are seen as

2567
02:33:32,520 --> 02:33:36,799
much as a political social choice by women as anything,

2568
02:33:36,840 --> 02:33:40,760
because wearing a headscarf for a woman is sort of

2569
02:33:40,760 --> 02:33:46,159
a way of thumbing their nose at modern liberal culture

2570
02:33:46,200 --> 02:33:48,559
by saying that no religion is important to them. And

2571
02:33:49,920 --> 02:33:53,079
I understand it doesn't necessarily mean that they're like the

2572
02:33:53,120 --> 02:33:56,239
semi chattel relationship that we think of in Isis. It

2573
02:33:56,280 --> 02:33:58,319
doesn't mean that at all. And again I'm not approving

2574
02:33:58,319 --> 02:34:02,600
of the AKAP, but he's basically glossing over a huge

2575
02:34:02,600 --> 02:34:06,840
amount of nuance in Turkey, where there is a lot

2576
02:34:06,840 --> 02:34:08,040
of nuance in the real world.

2577
02:34:10,360 --> 02:34:10,719
Speaker 3: All right.

2578
02:34:11,120 --> 02:34:15,399
Speaker 1: The Turkish AKP semi literate leaders seem to honestly believe

2579
02:34:15,440 --> 02:34:19,159
that democracy means the absolute rule of the majority, forgetting

2580
02:34:19,159 --> 02:34:22,239
the bits about the consent of the minority, individual rights,

2581
02:34:22,280 --> 02:34:23,959
the rule of law, and so on.

2582
02:34:24,479 --> 02:34:26,840
Speaker 2: There we go conveniently believe in those things.

2583
02:34:27,639 --> 02:34:32,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, they have ruled accordingly with just over fifty percent

2584
02:34:32,040 --> 02:34:35,520
of the vote, utterly ignoring acute secular unhappiness as well

2585
02:34:35,559 --> 02:34:40,399
as this as the substantial fifteen to twenty percent minority

2586
02:34:40,600 --> 02:34:45,120
of Alabus whose faith is entirely too moderate for the akp.

2587
02:34:45,280 --> 02:34:51,639
Speaker 2: Akp, a Turkish descended ethno sectarian group that is twelve

2588
02:34:51,680 --> 02:34:56,959
or Shiite but essentially preserves a form of Zoroastrianism within Islam.

2589
02:34:56,959 --> 02:34:59,399
And they're another one of those really cool but really

2590
02:34:59,399 --> 02:35:01,280
weird shite minority groups.

2591
02:35:02,680 --> 02:35:03,840
Speaker 1: Has pronounced alevis.

2592
02:35:05,559 --> 02:35:10,000
Speaker 2: I've heard it pronounced a levee in English. My understanding

2593
02:35:10,079 --> 02:35:12,799
is in Turkey aloi and a levy are pronounced the

2594
02:35:12,879 --> 02:35:17,239
same way, but they consciously spell them differently and pronounce

2595
02:35:17,280 --> 02:35:20,319
it just to make it clear that they're not talking

2596
02:35:20,360 --> 02:35:22,799
about the Alowites, okay.

2597
02:35:23,959 --> 02:35:28,360
Speaker 1: Hinduism is another faith that has no central institutions or hierarchies. Indeed,

2598
02:35:28,440 --> 02:35:30,799
it is a gathering of many diverse cults to share

2599
02:35:30,840 --> 02:35:34,399
the same library of ancient texts, some magnificent and the

2600
02:35:34,440 --> 02:35:37,879
same cast of godly characters, each emphasizing this or that

2601
02:35:38,000 --> 02:35:41,360
text or God, and which was only represented as a

2602
02:35:41,440 --> 02:35:45,639
unitary religion under British rule. None of this prevents parties

2603
02:35:45,680 --> 02:35:49,079
and politicians from trying to harness Hindu sentiments for their

2604
02:35:49,079 --> 02:35:52,959
own advantage, and there are organized Hindu militant groups, including

2605
02:35:53,000 --> 02:35:56,559
some that repudiate the serene tolerance of most Hindus by

2606
02:35:56,639 --> 02:36:01,760
murdering Christian missionaries and organizing anti Muslim rine. The banning

2607
02:36:01,799 --> 02:36:05,280
of cowslaughter attracts more mainstream support, and it has been

2608
02:36:05,360 --> 02:36:09,840
legislated in several jurisdictions US hamburger chains, serve chicken in India,

2609
02:36:09,959 --> 02:36:12,920
or simply go vegetarian. But if we stay well clear

2610
02:36:12,959 --> 02:36:16,799
of cows and temples, we can ignore Hinduism as a factor.

2611
02:36:18,760 --> 02:36:22,920
An extreme example of the potentialities of a dynamic religious

2612
02:36:23,120 --> 02:36:27,520
leadership was the mainline Buddhist movement of Vietnam as it

2613
02:36:27,760 --> 02:36:31,159
then was, before its political identity was obliterated by the

2614
02:36:31,200 --> 02:36:35,600
Northern Communist conquest of nineteen seventy five. The almost continual

2615
02:36:35,639 --> 02:36:38,680
warfare of its last fifteen years, along with the politically

2616
02:36:38,760 --> 02:36:42,719
destructive effect of the DM regime and its military successors,

2617
02:36:42,760 --> 02:36:45,680
resulted in the collapse of the social and political structures

2618
02:36:45,719 --> 02:36:48,680
of the country, while its economy was reduced to localize

2619
02:36:48,719 --> 02:36:53,520
subsistence subsistence agricate culture, allied with urban dependence on US

2620
02:36:53,600 --> 02:37:00,399
AID and US military spending. Precarious conditions weakened more modern economic, political,

2621
02:37:00,479 --> 02:37:04,879
and social movements, allowing older groupings based on religious affiliations

2622
02:37:04,879 --> 02:37:08,200
to emerge as the only valid civilian political forces in

2623
02:37:08,319 --> 02:37:12,239
Vietnamese society, apart from the Buddhist movement led by the

2624
02:37:12,319 --> 02:37:17,639
Monk Tik Tree Quang and other re regional leaders. By

2625
02:37:17,680 --> 02:37:20,200
early nineteen sixty eight, on the eve of the momentous

2626
02:37:20,559 --> 02:37:23,319
offensive by the Viet Kang and the North Vietnamese that

2627
02:37:23,440 --> 02:37:27,479
ultimately induced the United States to abandon Vietnam, the following

2628
02:37:27,639 --> 02:37:30,760
array of religious and political groups could be found in

2629
02:37:30,799 --> 02:37:33,399
the country. Do you know how to pronounce this? How

2630
02:37:33,520 --> 02:37:35,000
is it? How is?

2631
02:37:35,040 --> 02:37:36,600
Speaker 2: How? It's usually yeah?

2632
02:37:36,840 --> 02:37:40,920
Speaker 1: Ho how Ho how? A reform Buddhist sect with a

2633
02:37:41,000 --> 02:37:43,920
large following in the Southern Delta part of the country.

2634
02:37:44,440 --> 02:37:49,000
Their leadership was politically oriented and, except for strictly local alliances,

2635
02:37:49,079 --> 02:37:52,360
was anti Viet Kang. They had acquired the rudiments of

2636
02:37:52,399 --> 02:37:53,440
an armed militia.

2637
02:37:53,799 --> 02:37:59,559
Speaker 2: Yeah. The Hoau were important because they didn't believe in monasticism.

2638
02:37:59,680 --> 02:38:01,840
Because most Buddhists sets believe the only people who are

2639
02:38:01,840 --> 02:38:04,479
going to reach Nirvana are actual monks. And again the

2640
02:38:04,520 --> 02:38:08,840
whole how had their own militia that the South Vietnamese

2641
02:38:09,000 --> 02:38:10,239
government had to deal with.

2642
02:38:13,000 --> 02:38:16,399
Speaker 1: Cow Die an important Buddhist sect with a history of

2643
02:38:16,440 --> 02:38:17,680
political participation.

2644
02:38:18,120 --> 02:38:22,600
Speaker 2: They're not Buddhists. They're basically a mixture of like French existentialism,

2645
02:38:22,719 --> 02:38:26,360
Catholicism in Buddhism, as well as a bunch of traditions

2646
02:38:26,440 --> 02:38:32,840
within Vietnamese folk religion. And basically they're important. Is the

2647
02:38:32,879 --> 02:38:35,719
Communists didn't like them because they are a very cohesive

2648
02:38:35,879 --> 02:38:38,239
subgroup within society and they have a tradition of their

2649
02:38:38,280 --> 02:38:39,479
own militias.

2650
02:38:41,079 --> 02:38:43,799
Speaker 1: Is this pronounced Benjuin.

2651
02:38:43,200 --> 02:38:44,959
Speaker 2: I think Benjuin or something like that.

2652
02:38:45,600 --> 02:38:49,120
Speaker 1: Being a small but very active part sect and part

2653
02:38:49,200 --> 02:38:52,840
secret society, and its main area of strength was in

2654
02:38:52,879 --> 02:38:56,440
the Saigon region, and before the DM regime displaced them,

2655
02:38:56,840 --> 02:39:00,799
the Benjuin were said to own both they these police

2656
02:39:00,799 --> 02:39:04,200
force and its underworld. The sect had been influenced by

2657
02:39:04,239 --> 02:39:07,280
the Chinese secret societies from across the river in Cholan,

2658
02:39:08,360 --> 02:39:11,639
Saigon's vast Chinatown, and the effect of the report of

2659
02:39:11,719 --> 02:39:14,680
the repression at the hands of DM was to drive

2660
02:39:14,719 --> 02:39:16,799
it underground rather than destroy it.

2661
02:39:17,399 --> 02:39:21,600
Speaker 2: Essentially, these were the Vietnamese branch of Catholic excuse me,

2662
02:39:21,959 --> 02:39:26,399
Vietnamese branch of Chinese triads, and the triads actually have

2663
02:39:26,600 --> 02:39:31,559
a religious orientation or religious origin, which again makes it

2664
02:39:31,600 --> 02:39:34,760
really hard to infiltrate them.

2665
02:39:34,840 --> 02:39:38,559
Speaker 1: That's really interesting. I'd like to learn more about the Yeah.

2666
02:39:38,959 --> 02:39:41,840
Speaker 2: I was saying, within Chinese society. The actual history of

2667
02:39:41,920 --> 02:39:45,920
like as good theological religions, those that actually believe in

2668
02:39:46,000 --> 02:39:49,559
like some kind of into the world is just absolutely engrossing.

2669
02:39:52,159 --> 02:39:56,360
Speaker 1: Catholics. Until DM's fall, the substantial Catholic minority was able

2670
02:39:56,399 --> 02:39:59,639
to dominate the Buddhist majority. Many of the South Vietnamese

2671
02:39:59,680 --> 02:40:02,319
Catholic for refugees from the North and as such fiercely

2672
02:40:02,360 --> 02:40:06,440
anti communists. Moreover, under the French, many Catholics that cooperated

2673
02:40:06,760 --> 02:40:09,360
actively with the colonial power and served in the French

2674
02:40:09,479 --> 02:40:12,879
armed forces. As the South became increasingly weak in the

2675
02:40:12,920 --> 02:40:15,799
prospect of a conquest by the North approach, the Catholic

2676
02:40:15,799 --> 02:40:20,280
community reached a desperate impasse. Their activity against any pro

2677
02:40:20,399 --> 02:40:23,879
Viet Kang or just pro peace coup would have been

2678
02:40:23,959 --> 02:40:26,200
immediate and probably very effective.

2679
02:40:26,639 --> 02:40:30,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, Like we talked before, when Dark Lightenment was on

2680
02:40:30,559 --> 02:40:34,000
many of the Catholics in Vietnam. They actually originated from

2681
02:40:34,799 --> 02:40:37,040
civil service families, a lot of these that had been

2682
02:40:37,079 --> 02:40:41,840
like traditionally Confusian. So yeah, they have a strong history

2683
02:40:41,840 --> 02:40:45,239
in the government. Many of them were even from North Vietnam.

2684
02:40:45,719 --> 02:40:49,040
You know, they dominated the ZM regime. And even when

2685
02:40:49,959 --> 02:40:51,879
there was the military coup in South Vietnam and they

2686
02:40:51,920 --> 02:40:55,479
started purging everybody connected with DM, they ended up having

2687
02:40:55,600 --> 02:40:58,600
huge numbers of Catholics left in the command structure just

2688
02:40:58,639 --> 02:41:02,879
because they were the competent pace. And again, the Catholic

2689
02:41:02,920 --> 02:41:05,799
Buddhist divide is just so huge in Vietnamese culture. It's

2690
02:41:05,840 --> 02:41:07,559
like if you ever have or ever live in a

2691
02:41:07,600 --> 02:41:11,319
city in the US with a large Vietnamese immigrant population,

2692
02:41:11,399 --> 02:41:13,799
the joke is you will always see an intersection to

2693
02:41:14,280 --> 02:41:17,239
Vietnamese restaurants facing each other, and without a doubt, it

2694
02:41:17,200 --> 02:41:20,239
will always be one Catholic and one Buddhist restaurant. And

2695
02:41:20,520 --> 02:41:22,319
that's just divide in their culture.

2696
02:41:25,239 --> 02:41:28,079
Speaker 1: All these religious groups could have intervened against a coup.

2697
02:41:28,280 --> 02:41:30,600
Their meeting places could have been used to assemble and

2698
02:41:30,600 --> 02:41:34,120
shelter out opponents. The priestid could have inspired and coordinated

2699
02:41:34,159 --> 02:41:37,719
mass agitation against us. Finally, their direct influence on the

2700
02:41:37,799 --> 02:41:40,159
army and bureaucratic rank and file could have been used

2701
02:41:40,159 --> 02:41:43,639
to resist the imposition of our authority. The religious groups

2702
02:41:43,840 --> 02:41:47,559
that can be important in particular countries will differ doctrinally,

2703
02:41:48,120 --> 02:41:51,959
but they will tend to be sufficiently similar organizationally to

2704
02:41:52,040 --> 02:41:55,399
permit us to rely on the same general method of neutralization.

2705
02:41:56,399 --> 02:41:59,239
Their access to internet social media must of course be

2706
02:41:59,280 --> 02:42:03,399
impeded if blocked. If they operate private broadcasting facilities such

2707
02:42:03,399 --> 02:42:05,879
as the Vatican Radio or the small radio stations of

2708
02:42:05,920 --> 02:42:08,680
American missionary sex in many parts of the world, we

2709
02:42:08,719 --> 02:42:12,239
will put them temporarily out of action. Religious meeting places

2710
02:42:12,239 --> 02:42:15,159
should not be closed by administrative orders, which are liable

2711
02:42:15,239 --> 02:42:18,600
to foment rather than stifle opposition, but access to them

2712
02:42:18,600 --> 02:42:23,239
can be impeded or even barred by incidental roadblocks.

2713
02:42:23,360 --> 02:42:26,479
Speaker 2: Which is part of why when the Communists controlled Central Asia,

2714
02:42:26,520 --> 02:42:31,959
they always limited the ability of individual mosques to organize events,

2715
02:42:32,079 --> 02:42:34,680
but they never made any kind of effort to close,

2716
02:42:34,719 --> 02:42:36,520
permanently or ban those mosques.

2717
02:42:39,159 --> 02:42:42,600
Speaker 1: The leadership of religious organizations presents a special problem when

2718
02:42:42,600 --> 02:42:46,079
it comes to neutralization because of their particular psychological role

2719
02:42:46,159 --> 02:42:49,319
in the minds of their more committed followers. It will

2720
02:42:49,399 --> 02:42:53,799
usually be extremely unwise to arrest the hierarch the hierarchic leadership,

2721
02:42:53,959 --> 02:42:56,799
as well as any prominent preachers, who will in any

2722
02:42:56,840 --> 02:43:00,200
case be stripped of their social media access. Fortunately, the

2723
02:43:00,239 --> 02:43:04,239
actual decision makers within religious organizations will often be younger

2724
02:43:04,280 --> 02:43:06,520
men who are not in the public eye, but who

2725
02:43:06,559 --> 02:43:09,399
are the key figures from our point of view. If

2726
02:43:09,440 --> 02:43:13,879
the real decision makers are not also the hierarchical leaders,

2727
02:43:13,920 --> 02:43:16,120
we will arrest them. But if the two roles are

2728
02:43:16,159 --> 02:43:18,840
embodied in the same person or persons, we will not.

2729
02:43:19,719 --> 02:43:24,879
In concrete terms, Trity Kwang, who was very much an

2730
02:43:25,159 --> 02:43:28,600
effective decision maker in South Vietnam but not formally in

2731
02:43:28,600 --> 02:43:31,639
the higher leadership, could have been and should have been arrested.

2732
02:43:32,000 --> 02:43:36,120
But a pope who is both representational and the effective

2733
02:43:36,159 --> 02:43:40,120
leader cannot be arrested without stimulating a great deal of opposition,

2734
02:43:40,479 --> 02:43:43,079
the impact of which will outweigh any advantage to be

2735
02:43:43,159 --> 02:43:44,319
gained from the arrest.

2736
02:43:44,840 --> 02:43:45,079
Speaker 3: Yeah.

2737
02:43:45,079 --> 02:43:48,719
Speaker 2: One of the things you see in all kinds of

2738
02:43:48,760 --> 02:43:53,079
religious and civil institutions is as people live longer, very

2739
02:43:53,120 --> 02:43:56,399
often the titular leader, the person who's officially in charge,

2740
02:43:56,479 --> 02:43:59,680
is not necessarily the person running things behind the scenes

2741
02:44:00,040 --> 02:44:03,479
wouldn't have in the past. Now the official leader very

2742
02:44:03,520 --> 02:44:06,600
often has final authority, but it doesn't mean that the

2743
02:44:06,600 --> 02:44:10,000
person running around taking care of finances or you know,

2744
02:44:10,600 --> 02:44:14,399
logistics and making sure people at remote sites get fed.

2745
02:44:15,200 --> 02:44:18,280
So yeah, you have to be reasonably young and somebody

2746
02:44:18,360 --> 02:44:20,760
willing to show up every day in work long hours

2747
02:44:20,799 --> 02:44:22,959
in order to do those kind of things. So yeah,

2748
02:44:23,280 --> 02:44:26,639
the older the population, the more likely that is that

2749
02:44:27,040 --> 02:44:30,360
a formal leader will also have you know, unofficial leaders

2750
02:44:30,360 --> 02:44:32,000
behind the scenes who are doing most of the day

2751
02:44:32,040 --> 02:44:32,559
to day work.

2752
02:44:34,479 --> 02:44:36,920
Speaker 1: Okay, the less than two pages left that I might

2753
02:44:37,000 --> 02:44:40,360
need your help with pronunciation here if you can. In

2754
02:44:40,440 --> 02:44:44,040
Jahadi movements, the military, political and religious leadership is usually

2755
02:44:44,040 --> 02:44:47,559
embodied in the same person, evoking the Caliphate, which Muslims

2756
02:44:47,559 --> 02:44:50,120
of all stripes, even the most moderate, must view as

2757
02:44:50,159 --> 02:44:54,159
their ideal of governance for the Umah, the planetary community

2758
02:44:54,200 --> 02:44:59,520
of all Muslims and the and indeed for all humans

2759
02:44:59,520 --> 02:45:02,639
once following entarily converted in due course or killed of

2760
02:45:02,719 --> 02:45:07,760
Starbury pagan but modern advocates of a revival of the Caliphate,

2761
02:45:08,040 --> 02:45:10,959
they amount to a substantial semi public movement in many

2762
02:45:11,000 --> 02:45:14,879
countries hardly ever, refer back to the famous caliphates of

2763
02:45:14,959 --> 02:45:20,760
history from the splendiferous Umyad that Umayad defeated by the

2764
02:45:20,799 --> 02:45:25,159
longer lasting Abbasid, which were then distinguished by the.

2765
02:45:25,319 --> 02:45:27,959
Speaker 2: God Uma and obbosin.

2766
02:45:29,200 --> 02:45:32,920
Speaker 1: Umaiyad and longer lasting Obbosid who were later estinguished by

2767
02:45:32,920 --> 02:45:35,360
the Mongols in twelve fifty eight, or the Egypt or

2768
02:45:35,399 --> 02:45:44,239
the Egypt based and tolerant Shiamid Fasimid is that Fatimid.

2769
02:45:43,079 --> 02:45:46,120
Speaker 2: The claiming descent from Mom's daughter because he never had

2770
02:45:46,120 --> 02:45:46,680
his son.

2771
02:45:47,920 --> 02:45:54,040
Speaker 1: Okay between or the Ottoman that lingered till nineteen twenty four,

2772
02:45:54,200 --> 02:45:59,239
let alone the extent and genuinely moderate Amadia Kaliphate that

2773
02:45:59,319 --> 02:46:01,680
most Muslim condemned. Is heretical.

2774
02:46:02,680 --> 02:46:05,799
Speaker 2: Pronounces Amadia Amidia.

2775
02:46:07,239 --> 02:46:10,120
Speaker 1: Instead, supporters of the caliphate wax lyrical about the rule

2776
02:46:10,159 --> 02:46:15,879
of Muhammad's first four rightly guided successors, the al Kulafa

2777
02:46:15,959 --> 02:46:21,680
al rashidund yeah something like that, who followed one another

2778
02:46:22,000 --> 02:46:24,479
after his death in six point thirty two. Unable to

2779
02:46:24,520 --> 02:46:28,280
assume Mohammad's prophetic role, his best placed followers took control

2780
02:46:28,319 --> 02:46:32,879
of his movement as his successors or Kulafa Hence the

2781
02:46:32,959 --> 02:46:40,520
English Caliphate in greatly celebrating the Rashidun as modern Muslims

2782
02:46:40,559 --> 02:46:44,399
afflicted by afflicted by the contemporary difficulties of the Muslim

2783
02:46:44,440 --> 02:46:48,200
world are wont to do. The violent instability of the

2784
02:46:48,200 --> 02:46:53,000
institution is disregarded, no doubt, because they celebrate. They celebrate

2785
02:46:53,040 --> 02:46:56,239
are the colossal victories over the infidels who now very

2786
02:46:56,239 --> 02:47:00,639
regularly defeat them, undermining Islam's central promise of victory. But

2787
02:47:00,719 --> 02:47:04,159
from the very start the institution was violently unstable. The

2788
02:47:04,200 --> 02:47:11,000
first Caliph, Abu Bakir Sadik, had had to fight tribal

2789
02:47:11,040 --> 02:47:15,159
secessionism throughout his short reign to impose his rule. His

2790
02:47:15,200 --> 02:47:18,440
struggle was further intensified by the very first Shia, the

2791
02:47:18,479 --> 02:47:23,000
partisans of al Ib Abi Talib Mohammed's son in law.

2792
02:47:23,520 --> 02:47:26,280
There was also a bitter property dispute over the date

2793
02:47:26,360 --> 02:47:32,079
palm orchards of Fardakh Abu Abu Bakir died. What do

2794
02:47:32,159 --> 02:47:33,319
you say, No, I just.

2795
02:47:33,239 --> 02:47:37,440
Speaker 2: Think the property dispute, being essential to is says a

2796
02:47:37,479 --> 02:47:38,840
lot about humanity as a whole.

2797
02:47:40,079 --> 02:47:47,760
Speaker 5: Yeah, Abu Bakhar died of illness, a privilege denied to

2798
02:47:47,840 --> 02:47:51,840
the second Caliph, Umar in Al Khatib, killed by a

2799
02:47:51,879 --> 02:47:58,520
resentful Persian soldier, or the third Uthman ibn Afan, lynched

2800
02:47:58,559 --> 02:48:01,040
in his own house in Medina, or the fourth and

2801
02:48:01,159 --> 02:48:05,200
last Ali ibn Abi Thalib Mohammad's son in law, who

2802
02:48:05,239 --> 02:48:12,920
was assassinated by a more extreme extremist of the Karazite Sek,

2803
02:48:13,520 --> 02:48:17,799
which demanded unending war against all non Muslim and denounced

2804
02:48:17,840 --> 02:48:22,280
all who disagreed as apostates deserving of death. Muhammad had

2805
02:48:22,280 --> 02:48:25,159
done the same, sending assassins to be head apostates and

2806
02:48:25,200 --> 02:48:31,200
irreverent poets. Muslim violence around the world is therefore perfectly

2807
02:48:31,239 --> 02:48:35,159
traditional and allows us, as coup planners, presumably Muslims in

2808
02:48:35,159 --> 02:48:39,159
a Muslim target country, to act accordingly. The patron saint

2809
02:48:39,159 --> 02:48:41,799
of modern shihadis Sayid Katub.

2810
02:48:42,040 --> 02:48:46,319
Speaker 1: Katub I think Kutub was hanged by the Egyptian military

2811
02:48:46,360 --> 02:48:51,799
dictator Gamal abdel Nasser, who nevertheless remained wildly popular. As

2812
02:48:51,799 --> 02:48:57,399
of twenty fifteen. The contemporary military dictator of Egypt, a

2813
02:48:57,440 --> 02:49:01,079
fine fellow by all accounts, has procured that sentences against

2814
02:49:01,079 --> 02:49:05,200
the leaders of the Ikwuan the Muslim brotherhood without losing

2815
02:49:05,239 --> 02:49:09,840
his considerable popularity. Hence, any Muslim religious leader who crosses

2816
02:49:09,879 --> 02:49:12,799
our path can be straightforwardly eliminated so long as our

2817
02:49:12,840 --> 02:49:15,600
Muslim credentials are solid. It helps to have a dark

2818
02:49:15,639 --> 02:49:18,760
spot on the forehead left by the bruising of enthusiastic

2819
02:49:18,840 --> 02:49:20,879
worship and bowing down to the ground.

2820
02:49:21,479 --> 02:49:25,319
Speaker 2: That's one of many reasons why the the Alla white

2821
02:49:26,840 --> 02:49:29,760
leaders in Syria go out of their way to emphasize

2822
02:49:30,280 --> 02:49:33,159
their religion as a type of Islam, because they were

2823
02:49:33,200 --> 02:49:36,360
the only people to actually suppress the Muslim brotherhood.

2824
02:49:39,040 --> 02:49:42,360
Speaker 1: All right, that's where where this is a good natural

2825
02:49:42,360 --> 02:49:47,440
stopping point. So thank you. I appreciate it. Yeah, and

2826
02:49:47,639 --> 02:49:49,959
you're gonna be you'll be out of h at a

2827
02:49:50,079 --> 02:49:53,520
range for a little while. Yeah, we'll see if if

2828
02:49:55,159 --> 02:49:56,440
still doing this when you get back.

2829
02:49:57,399 --> 02:49:59,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, anytime.

2830
02:49:59,559 --> 02:50:03,239
Speaker 1: All right, Well, yeah, I appreciate it, and take care.

2831
02:50:03,360 --> 02:50:04,120
Have we good weekend?

2832
02:50:04,360 --> 02:50:04,840
Speaker 2: Thanks sir.

2833
02:50:06,239 --> 02:50:08,360
Speaker 1: I want to welcome everyone back to part nine of

2834
02:50:08,399 --> 02:50:13,479
my reading of Kude Toad by Edward Lutwak. Christopher Sanbatch's back.

2835
02:50:13,760 --> 02:50:14,799
How are you doing, Christopher?

2836
02:50:15,360 --> 02:50:19,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, pretty good, pretty good. I've survived my encounter with

2837
02:50:20,120 --> 02:50:22,399
all three hundred thousand people that want to let me

2838
02:50:22,479 --> 02:50:24,360
know how ugly lamf is.

2839
02:50:26,840 --> 02:50:28,479
Speaker 3: I've never been pounced so hard.

2840
02:50:28,520 --> 02:50:32,959
Speaker 4: Do you know Davis that runs the pamphleteer up in Nashville.

2841
02:50:33,440 --> 02:50:35,520
He was like, yeah, He's like, I just like, I've

2842
02:50:35,520 --> 02:50:38,120
never seen a post that had three hundred thousand likes

2843
02:50:38,120 --> 02:50:41,200
and three hundred thousand views and one hundred likes.

2844
02:50:42,680 --> 02:50:45,159
Speaker 1: Oh it was. I mean, I watched it from afar

2845
02:50:45,600 --> 02:50:47,959
because I'm like, if I get involved in this, it'll

2846
02:50:48,719 --> 02:50:51,159
I'm going to be sucked into those sand Batch vortext

2847
02:50:51,200 --> 02:50:53,079
and I don't need that at this point.

2848
02:50:54,079 --> 02:50:56,559
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's exactly right. Some days you just had to

2849
02:50:56,600 --> 02:50:58,000
say not to sand Badge.

2850
02:51:00,120 --> 02:51:02,959
Speaker 1: All right, we're finishing off chapter four hearing and it

2851
02:51:03,000 --> 02:51:05,600
owns chapter five, so I'll start reading. Stop whenever.

2852
02:51:06,319 --> 02:51:06,639
Speaker 2: All right.

2853
02:51:07,399 --> 02:51:10,600
Speaker 1: Political parties, unlike the other groups that constitute a potential

2854
02:51:10,600 --> 02:51:13,760
source of opposition to the coup, political parties are our

2855
02:51:13,799 --> 02:51:16,920
direct competitors in the sense of their primary purpose, like

2856
02:51:16,959 --> 02:51:21,079
our own, is the accumulation of political power. This will

2857
02:51:21,079 --> 02:51:23,879
not necessarily make them the main, or even a significant,

2858
02:51:23,920 --> 02:51:26,559
potential threat to us, but it will mean that their

2859
02:51:26,559 --> 02:51:31,479
response to the coup will be particular, particularly prompt. Whether

2860
02:51:31,520 --> 02:51:37,239
this response will be verbal and purely declatory, or perhaps

2861
02:51:37,319 --> 02:51:40,600
more direct and effective will depend on a variety of factors,

2862
02:51:40,600 --> 02:51:45,479
including the nature of their leadership, organization, and membership. Because

2863
02:51:45,479 --> 02:51:48,600
political parties are as diverse as the countries within which

2864
02:51:48,639 --> 02:51:51,399
they compete for power, we will classify them in certain

2865
02:51:51,440 --> 02:51:55,360
categories as a prelude to examining the methods of their

2866
02:51:55,360 --> 02:51:56,959
individual neutralization.

2867
02:51:58,600 --> 02:52:00,600
Speaker 4: Before he gets into this, because this is actually one

2868
02:52:00,639 --> 02:52:04,120
of my like keystone issues, I just want to point

2869
02:52:04,159 --> 02:52:06,360
because I always like to go into this and I'll

2870
02:52:06,399 --> 02:52:09,079
do this, I'll do the whole spiel somewhere else one day.

2871
02:52:09,360 --> 02:52:11,079
Speaker 3: But I always like to point out in the United.

2872
02:52:10,879 --> 02:52:16,399
Speaker 4: States that the political parties are not actually constructed similarly.

2873
02:52:16,799 --> 02:52:19,120
The only thing they really have in common is that

2874
02:52:19,120 --> 02:52:22,440
there's series five twenty seven organizations that put candidates up

2875
02:52:22,479 --> 02:52:26,559
for office. Other than that, they're like in the United States.

2876
02:52:26,559 --> 02:52:29,159
In the anglosphere, they're like corporations, and they could pretty

2877
02:52:29,239 --> 02:52:31,520
much operate however they want to with their own biolaws

2878
02:52:31,520 --> 02:52:32,920
and do whatever they want to do. But I've also

2879
02:52:33,040 --> 02:52:36,600
worked and I've also worked with African and South American

2880
02:52:36,639 --> 02:52:40,600
political parties before, and you know, Americans are used to

2881
02:52:40,639 --> 02:52:44,719
a certain amount of asymmetry, and but it's like enough

2882
02:52:44,760 --> 02:52:47,399
that we don't even we argue amongst ourselves whether or

2883
02:52:47,399 --> 02:52:48,200
not it even exists.

2884
02:52:48,280 --> 02:52:50,200
Speaker 3: You know, both parties are the same as them or whatever.

2885
02:52:50,879 --> 02:52:53,600
Speaker 4: It is astonishing if you ever deal with third world

2886
02:52:53,600 --> 02:52:58,200
countries or second world countries, how actually diverse the party

2887
02:52:58,280 --> 02:53:00,639
representation is, like, I mean, like any you can go

2888
02:53:00,719 --> 02:53:03,559
right now and over to like Chad, Like look at

2889
02:53:03,600 --> 02:53:05,920
the country, Chad, and like look at all the political parties.

2890
02:53:06,040 --> 02:53:08,159
There's gonna be the ten communist ones, but they're going

2891
02:53:08,239 --> 02:53:10,399
to be really interesting, and they're all going to have

2892
02:53:10,440 --> 02:53:14,040
their own little niche issue, you know. So this is

2893
02:53:14,079 --> 02:53:15,959
what he's doing, is he's laying these out for us.

2894
02:53:16,319 --> 02:53:17,719
Some of these will be familiar, though.

2895
02:53:19,799 --> 02:53:24,319
Speaker 1: Right machine parties, where politics is a business like any other, parties,

2896
02:53:24,399 --> 02:53:27,200
take the form of an association whose purpose is the

2897
02:53:27,319 --> 02:53:30,760
procurement of votes in exchange for specific and material rewards.

2898
02:53:31,600 --> 02:53:34,959
The local boss secures votes for the party at election

2899
02:53:35,079 --> 02:53:38,600
time in exchange for cash and or bureaucratic jobs for

2900
02:53:38,719 --> 02:53:42,600
himself or his nominees. The deputies in the Assembly then

2901
02:53:42,639 --> 02:53:46,120
deliver their votes to the government in exchange for definite favors,

2902
02:53:46,479 --> 02:53:48,680
some of which are retained and some of which are

2903
02:53:48,719 --> 02:53:53,200
passed down to those who secured their election. The machine

2904
02:53:53,239 --> 02:53:56,239
party can flourish in societies as different as early twentieth

2905
02:53:56,319 --> 02:54:00,920
century America, Egypt between the Wars, and present days South America.

2906
02:54:01,840 --> 02:54:04,159
Speaker 4: Well, it just to point out here also one of

2907
02:54:04,159 --> 02:54:06,280
the things he doesn't he's he hasn't gotten that. I

2908
02:54:06,280 --> 02:54:08,239
can't remember if he does get into it. But again,

2909
02:54:08,280 --> 02:54:10,879
this is actually where I worked. This is the kind

2910
02:54:10,879 --> 02:54:12,879
of wet work I was doing on K Streets, That's

2911
02:54:12,920 --> 02:54:14,600
what I call it. But I was like working for

2912
02:54:14,680 --> 02:54:17,840
this like flea by consultancy on K Street that did

2913
02:54:17,879 --> 02:54:20,200
things like represent Third World parties.

2914
02:54:20,280 --> 02:54:22,079
Speaker 3: Okay, So like really.

2915
02:54:22,399 --> 02:54:24,760
Speaker 4: Not only does this all happen, an astonishing amount of

2916
02:54:24,799 --> 02:54:28,479
it actually happens in the United States, like like these

2917
02:54:28,520 --> 02:54:31,879
like like these countries like Niger or Chad or somewhere

2918
02:54:31,959 --> 02:54:35,799
like that. They will have both the opposition and the

2919
02:54:35,840 --> 02:54:38,879
ruling party, will have separate lobbyists, and they'll have separate

2920
02:54:38,959 --> 02:54:43,239
personnel staffing in Washington, d C. And they actually do

2921
02:54:43,479 --> 02:54:48,840
an astonishing amount of their internal politicking in the you know,

2922
02:54:48,920 --> 02:54:51,879
the overall imperial capital. So when you're thinking about this,

2923
02:54:52,040 --> 02:54:55,959
it's not spatially limited necessarily to the countries in which

2924
02:54:56,000 --> 02:54:58,879
it's happening. This could be happening in London, this could

2925
02:54:58,879 --> 02:55:01,479
be happening in America, happening in all three.

2926
02:55:03,760 --> 02:55:09,079
Speaker 1: Already. It needs two main ingredients, an elective parliamentary democracy

2927
02:55:09,239 --> 02:55:16,200
and a socially backward electorate. That's such a great sentence.

2928
02:55:16,920 --> 02:55:19,799
Speaker 3: Yeah.

2929
02:55:20,200 --> 02:55:22,639
Speaker 1: In the United States at the beginning of the century,

2930
02:55:22,680 --> 02:55:25,799
the immigrant communities were largely composed of Eastern and Southern

2931
02:55:25,879 --> 02:55:32,000
Europeans whose mother countries were economically and often politically unsophisticated. Thus,

2932
02:55:32,079 --> 02:55:35,479
the newly arrived immigrants lacked the political awareness required to

2933
02:55:35,559 --> 02:55:38,639
obtain direct concessions from the government in the shape of

2934
02:55:38,680 --> 02:55:43,680
social welfare legislations or labor codes. They soon learned, however,

2935
02:55:44,159 --> 02:55:47,600
to obtain indirect favors by proposing their support to the

2936
02:55:47,639 --> 02:55:50,680
local ward organization of the party, i e. If the

2937
02:55:50,799 --> 02:55:53,639
votes were delivered on election day and the candidate elected,

2938
02:55:54,120 --> 02:56:00,799
rewards would be eventually received in return. Machine parties do

2939
02:56:00,840 --> 02:56:03,600
not distribute their rewards as widely as the old municipal

2940
02:56:03,680 --> 02:56:07,639
machines in the United States. That is so because such

2941
02:56:07,680 --> 02:56:12,840
parties participate participate in the amplio crassia jobs for the

2942
02:56:12,879 --> 02:56:18,280
boys politics, which dominates political societies in which industry and

2943
02:56:18,360 --> 02:56:23,520
commerce are undeveloped. In such societies, politics and its associated

2944
02:56:23,600 --> 02:56:26,680
jobs in the state bureaucracy are the main avenues of

2945
02:56:26,719 --> 02:56:30,559
middle class advancement, if not enterprise. And the Party is

2946
02:56:30,600 --> 02:56:34,520
the vehicle with legal training for the middle class activity

2947
02:56:34,639 --> 02:56:35,719
of office hunting.

2948
02:56:36,760 --> 02:56:39,440
Speaker 4: Okay, Now, this is going to be a long one

2949
02:56:39,959 --> 02:56:44,000
because I have to The first thing we have to

2950
02:56:44,000 --> 02:56:50,399
do is point out the dazzling Miltonian satanic performance that

2951
02:56:50,479 --> 02:56:53,319
we thought is putting on here. As a literary figure,

2952
02:56:53,760 --> 02:56:57,000
he's doing something which is very He's echoing a historical

2953
02:56:57,079 --> 02:57:01,319
narrative that is very interesting because he's functionally again we

2954
02:57:01,479 --> 02:57:05,879
remember him as a defense intellectual. He is suddenly mirroring

2955
02:57:06,520 --> 02:57:09,799
what we refer to as the narrative of the Anglo

2956
02:57:09,840 --> 02:57:14,200
American wasp establishment. Okay, that is about as clear an

2957
02:57:14,200 --> 02:57:19,000
outline of Anglo American establishment wasp historiography as you can

2958
02:57:19,040 --> 02:57:23,000
find anywhere you know, Like, Okay, we had these people

2959
02:57:23,120 --> 02:57:26,360
from Southern Europe and ay all, and this is I mean,

2960
02:57:26,360 --> 02:57:28,719
this is the tricky thing here is this is how

2961
02:57:28,799 --> 02:57:32,760
Lukefax's own people arrived here. So he's writing this book

2962
02:57:33,040 --> 02:57:35,520
for this audience as though he's one of them. But

2963
02:57:35,600 --> 02:57:39,159
he's explaining what his people did to the United States. Okay,

2964
02:57:39,760 --> 02:57:42,920
is what's going on here? And it's one of the things.

2965
02:57:42,920 --> 02:57:47,079
I'm just like every time he does this, I'm Florida.

2966
02:57:47,079 --> 02:57:49,639
Speaker 3: I'm like, I just is, who's it.

2967
02:57:49,639 --> 02:57:51,239
Speaker 4: I don't know how many people are in on this joke,

2968
02:57:51,719 --> 02:57:54,680
but just from a writing perspective, you could understand how

2969
02:57:54,719 --> 02:57:56,719
he actually managed to make a career out of.

2970
02:57:56,719 --> 02:58:00,879
Speaker 3: This book because it is it has lots of twist terrence.

2971
02:58:03,959 --> 02:58:04,479
Speaker 4: All right.

2972
02:58:05,680 --> 02:58:09,639
Speaker 1: Machine parties have their rationale and the contrast between constitutional

2973
02:58:09,680 --> 02:58:12,600
structures and the social order. In countries that are both

2974
02:58:12,639 --> 02:58:17,120
poor and democratic, their whole manner of operation revolves around

2975
02:58:17,120 --> 02:58:20,040
the exchange of votes for rewards at every level. In

2976
02:58:20,079 --> 02:58:23,440
other words, it requires the functioning of the parliamentary apparatus

2977
02:58:23,600 --> 02:58:27,200
with its periodic elections. In the event of a coup,

2978
02:58:27,479 --> 02:58:31,040
this institutional framework would be frozen and the machine made powerless.

2979
02:58:31,680 --> 02:58:34,120
Even if the machine has a base of mass support,

2980
02:58:34,319 --> 02:58:37,799
its leadership being coalition of local power, structures without a

2981
02:58:37,879 --> 02:58:42,360
national presence will not be able to mobilize it. We

2982
02:58:42,440 --> 02:58:46,319
will therefore ignore the machine parties and will not need

2983
02:58:46,360 --> 02:58:50,799
to take any particular action in their regard you.

2984
02:58:50,840 --> 02:58:53,079
Speaker 4: Now we get a staff because this is like, Okay,

2985
02:58:53,399 --> 02:58:55,520
what he's just laid out for you, right there is

2986
02:58:55,520 --> 02:58:57,719
the strategy of the Democratic Party in the year twenty

2987
02:58:57,760 --> 02:59:03,959
twenty four. He has every single one of the adjectives

2988
02:59:04,000 --> 02:59:06,079
and the nouns that he's used leading up to this,

2989
02:59:07,120 --> 02:59:09,559
leading up, leading up to the end of the end

2990
02:59:09,559 --> 02:59:13,399
of the section is in fact these words. If you

2991
02:59:13,440 --> 02:59:15,719
could make a word cloud of the way people in

2992
02:59:15,760 --> 02:59:20,079
coastal cities look at the inner provinces of the American Empire,

2993
02:59:20,440 --> 02:59:23,399
that is precisely how they look at And most of

2994
02:59:23,559 --> 02:59:28,360
many of them have this book from undergrad in the

2995
02:59:28,399 --> 02:59:31,319
back of their mind whenever they think about the sort

2996
02:59:31,360 --> 02:59:34,719
of wrote politics of Middle America, and that it's actually

2997
02:59:34,799 --> 02:59:40,319
true to a certain degree that most red state American

2998
02:59:40,399 --> 02:59:44,079
precincts are in fact run by the political machine.

2999
02:59:43,760 --> 02:59:45,120
Speaker 3: That is the Republican Party.

3000
02:59:45,159 --> 02:59:46,840
Speaker 4: So, I mean, we're really familiar with looking at the

3001
02:59:46,840 --> 02:59:48,399
black vote, you know, I know, the good old boys

3002
02:59:48,399 --> 02:59:51,159
are really fond of saying the black vote is delivered

3003
02:59:51,159 --> 02:59:52,479
by machine, so on and so forth.

3004
02:59:52,680 --> 02:59:55,239
Speaker 3: The Republican vote is also delivered by machine. It's just

3005
02:59:55,280 --> 02:59:55,840
a machine.

3006
02:59:56,040 --> 03:00:00,239
Speaker 4: So vast and the individual pieces of it are so

3007
03:00:01,120 --> 03:00:07,040
like inconsequential that it never gets categorized as a machine

3008
03:00:07,040 --> 03:00:11,920
politics because it's uniformly the entire sec opposition party in

3009
03:00:12,000 --> 03:00:12,840
the United States.

3010
03:00:13,079 --> 03:00:14,200
Speaker 3: All right, that's.

3011
03:00:14,079 --> 03:00:21,319
Speaker 1: No insurrectional parties. Such parties may or may not participate

3012
03:00:21,319 --> 03:00:24,479
in open political life if it exists in our target country.

3013
03:00:24,760 --> 03:00:27,879
But the primary purpose of insurrectional parties is to destroy

3014
03:00:27,920 --> 03:00:31,360
the system rather than to work it. Like the Bolsheviks

3015
03:00:31,600 --> 03:00:35,639
before nineteen seventeen, these parties live a semi legal existence,

3016
03:00:35,680 --> 03:00:40,319
with a cellular organization and underground mentality, and frequently a

3017
03:00:40,360 --> 03:00:45,120
paramilitary element. Such parties are characterized by their adherence to

3018
03:00:45,159 --> 03:00:49,879
a set of definite ideological beliefs, a rigidly centralized organization,

3019
03:00:50,440 --> 03:00:53,520
and their preoccupation with the use of direct methods to

3020
03:00:53,639 --> 03:00:57,559
achieve political ends. Yeah, you're really shocked when you read

3021
03:00:57,559 --> 03:00:59,879
this that he actually brings up the Bolsheviks and not

3022
03:01:00,079 --> 03:01:02,040
that other group that you would think that he would

3023
03:01:02,040 --> 03:01:03,200
pick he would choose.

3024
03:01:04,159 --> 03:01:07,239
Speaker 3: Oh, no, he's one of them. He's like a deep, deep,

3025
03:01:07,840 --> 03:01:12,040
deep Nazi, if that's what you're talking about, Like there's

3026
03:01:12,280 --> 03:01:16,879
like this is like this is he's definitely.

3027
03:01:18,440 --> 03:01:20,520
Speaker 1: If he's a neo conon a Zionist.

3028
03:01:20,680 --> 03:01:24,559
Speaker 4: Then yeah, you know that gets into the real tricky

3029
03:01:24,639 --> 03:01:28,360
internal politics of like the relationship between you know, Central

3030
03:01:28,360 --> 03:01:31,760
Europe and he is he's like one of these figures

3031
03:01:31,760 --> 03:01:34,719
out of like almost like the spy who came in

3032
03:01:34,760 --> 03:01:37,360
from the cold or some other like Jean Lecaerr novel

3033
03:01:37,399 --> 03:01:41,280
where he's like this like marooned orphan figure that gets

3034
03:01:41,360 --> 03:01:44,959
like tossed. He's essentially from the same milieu as George Soros.

3035
03:01:45,200 --> 03:01:46,639
He just came out on the other side.

3036
03:01:47,239 --> 03:01:49,719
Speaker 3: You know, he's like he's the.

3037
03:01:49,719 --> 03:01:53,840
Speaker 4: Anti he came out anti Communists because I guess it's

3038
03:01:53,879 --> 03:01:56,520
I think it was America or the maybe the Greeks

3039
03:01:56,600 --> 03:01:59,280
or somebody that scooped him up, and so he grew

3040
03:01:59,319 --> 03:02:01,760
up in the West and he's a and he's a

3041
03:02:02,079 --> 03:02:05,840
like the only thing Edward Luvac wants to do is

3042
03:02:06,000 --> 03:02:11,879
kill Muslims. And what is the other thing Neokons do?

3043
03:02:12,000 --> 03:02:14,719
Oh yeah, no, Kamis. But like like he's got like

3044
03:02:14,760 --> 03:02:18,600
he has the Zionist bloodlust for the destruction of.

3045
03:02:18,559 --> 03:02:21,559
Speaker 3: The Mohammedan, of the Mohammedan Empire or whatever.

3046
03:02:22,040 --> 03:02:26,760
Speaker 4: But then he also is a like raging anti communist

3047
03:02:26,879 --> 03:02:29,840
and you know, during the nineteen seventies, those two strains

3048
03:02:30,360 --> 03:02:33,120
came together and formed a seam for these people to

3049
03:02:33,120 --> 03:02:36,079
pour into. You know, the the neocons that are on

3050
03:02:36,159 --> 03:02:39,000
one hand, because this is when the Black Party this

3051
03:02:39,079 --> 03:02:40,719
is these are the in fact, these are the parties

3052
03:02:40,719 --> 03:02:43,000
he knows best, because these are the ones he's talking about.

3053
03:02:43,000 --> 03:02:45,239
These are the ones that he manipulates and that we

3054
03:02:45,280 --> 03:02:47,959
actually don't really have a corollary too in the United States,

3055
03:02:47,959 --> 03:02:50,920
Like there's not no matter how hard MSNBC wants to

3056
03:02:50,959 --> 03:02:56,879
mean this, there's no corollary to ISIS or the color

3057
03:02:56,959 --> 03:03:00,440
parties in the United States right now. But these are

3058
03:03:00,479 --> 03:03:02,600
the ones he knows really well because these two things

3059
03:03:02,639 --> 03:03:04,559
that he knows how to do, which is like like

3060
03:03:04,760 --> 03:03:10,559
destroy Muslim countries and philosophically opposed communism. The Middle East

3061
03:03:10,600 --> 03:03:12,600
of the nineteen seventies was the place to do that,

3062
03:03:12,879 --> 03:03:15,719
you know, and these were these were the types of parties.

3063
03:03:15,760 --> 03:03:17,000
And now you know, I used to hang out with

3064
03:03:17,040 --> 03:03:20,040
these guys like would do this stuff and they would

3065
03:03:20,040 --> 03:03:21,440
you know, they talk about these are like the days

3066
03:03:21,479 --> 03:03:25,479
of like black helicopters and like the Special Forces looking

3067
03:03:25,559 --> 03:03:29,120
like dads on like you know, there's summer vacation.

3068
03:03:29,959 --> 03:03:31,840
Speaker 3: But that's what these guys used to do, and they

3069
03:03:31,920 --> 03:03:32,600
used to use.

3070
03:03:32,479 --> 03:03:36,239
Speaker 4: Parties, but this was their favorite kind of work, the

3071
03:03:36,239 --> 03:03:37,520
insurrectionary party.

3072
03:03:40,239 --> 03:03:42,959
Speaker 1: In the social and economic conditions of Western Europe and

3073
03:03:43,000 --> 03:03:48,159
North America, insurrection parties are insignificant numerically, and they're challenge

3074
03:03:48,200 --> 03:03:51,600
to the system. Usually unfolds in an atmosphere of unreality,

3075
03:03:51,959 --> 03:03:54,000
though from time to time they can gather a mass

3076
03:03:54,040 --> 03:03:57,920
following among certain sectors of the population which are outside

3077
03:03:57,959 --> 03:04:05,319
the mainstream of national life. The yeah the Black Power

3078
03:04:05,360 --> 03:04:07,879
movement in the United States, for example, had all the

3079
03:04:07,959 --> 03:04:11,399
traits of an insurrectional party, but only operated among the

3080
03:04:11,399 --> 03:04:14,680
black communities in areas whose social and economic conditions were

3081
03:04:14,680 --> 03:04:20,239
those of an economically backward society. In the Third World, however,

3082
03:04:20,520 --> 03:04:24,719
the constant pressure of economic deprivation can generate a revolutionary

3083
03:04:24,760 --> 03:04:29,799
mentality among wide sections of the population, which insurrectional parties

3084
03:04:29,840 --> 03:04:34,479
try to channel and exploit. Their organization, however, is often

3085
03:04:34,559 --> 03:04:40,760
inadequate to the task. Insurrectional parties can oppose us in

3086
03:04:40,799 --> 03:04:44,760
three main ways. A through the agitation of the masses

3087
03:04:44,799 --> 03:04:48,120
to the extent that they have a mass following. B

3088
03:04:48,120 --> 03:04:52,799
by direct means such as assassination and sabotage c by

3089
03:04:52,879 --> 03:04:54,520
syndicalist agitation.

3090
03:04:55,840 --> 03:04:56,840
Speaker 3: It's so specific.

3091
03:04:58,600 --> 03:05:07,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, Insurrectional parties usually have an authoritarian leadership structure. Much

3092
03:05:07,239 --> 03:05:10,000
of their strength and the confused circumstances that would follow

3093
03:05:10,040 --> 03:05:14,360
a coup would derive from the coherence of a centralized leadership.

3094
03:05:15,040 --> 03:05:17,159
With that in mind, we should make every effort to

3095
03:05:17,239 --> 03:05:21,959
identify and isolate their key decision makers. The emphasis on

3096
03:05:22,040 --> 03:05:24,840
party discipline and the habit of making of waiting for

3097
03:05:24,959 --> 03:05:27,840
directives from the higher leadership when there are many insurrectional

3098
03:05:27,840 --> 03:05:32,399
parties powerless once the leadership has ceased to function, the

3099
03:05:32,479 --> 03:05:35,079
social pressures that act as a source of strength of

3100
03:05:35,120 --> 03:05:39,079
an insurrectional party may lead to its revival, but this

3101
03:05:39,079 --> 03:05:41,360
would not take place in the short period of time

3102
03:05:41,399 --> 03:05:44,680
that concerns us. I guess this what really makes the

3103
03:05:44,959 --> 03:05:46,959
makes the argument for professional soldiers.

3104
03:05:47,399 --> 03:05:49,799
Speaker 4: Oh, you see, Like I'm wondering if this is a

3105
03:05:49,879 --> 03:05:52,959
portion that he added in the like in the updated edition,

3106
03:05:53,680 --> 03:05:57,319
because if like, I don't know what year the United

3107
03:05:57,360 --> 03:06:00,879
States stopped arming, you know, Sama bin Laden.

3108
03:06:01,399 --> 03:06:04,319
Speaker 3: But this is the reason they like to use these

3109
03:06:04,360 --> 03:06:05,479
insurrectionary parties.

3110
03:06:05,520 --> 03:06:07,319
Speaker 4: Is that section that he just outlined, which is that

3111
03:06:07,440 --> 03:06:09,120
usually if you cut the head off, the whole thing

3112
03:06:09,159 --> 03:06:12,399
goes away, So you only have to keep guys near

3113
03:06:12,600 --> 03:06:16,440
one guy. So whenever this political party, when this card

3114
03:06:16,639 --> 03:06:19,959
that you have in your deck is you know, has

3115
03:06:20,000 --> 03:06:22,799
expired or it's no longer useful, you just shoot the

3116
03:06:23,319 --> 03:06:25,600
guy that you've been propping up the whole time. That's

3117
03:06:25,600 --> 03:06:29,479
how you at how the US. The United States ran

3118
03:06:29,840 --> 03:06:32,799
quite a bit of its foreign policy in Asia for

3119
03:06:33,200 --> 03:06:35,719
the second happen that we probably still do it, but

3120
03:06:35,879 --> 03:06:44,079
I can't. You don't have eyes on that the.

3121
03:06:41,559 --> 03:06:44,680
Speaker 3: The real like sort of dangerous thing.

3122
03:06:44,719 --> 03:06:46,639
Speaker 4: That's like what happens if we cut the head off

3123
03:06:46,639 --> 03:06:48,479
and it does eventually grow back, And he goes, this

3124
03:06:48,520 --> 03:06:49,799
won't happen for a long time.

3125
03:06:49,920 --> 03:06:51,879
Speaker 3: How long about twenty.

3126
03:06:51,680 --> 03:06:55,399
Speaker 4: Years for al Qaeda to emerge after we after we

3127
03:06:55,440 --> 03:06:58,200
tried to you know, scuttle it.

3128
03:06:59,200 --> 03:07:04,159
Speaker 1: Oh man, Yeah, I mean this's really Also when he's

3129
03:07:04,200 --> 03:07:06,920
talking about hero is that if you if you think

3130
03:07:06,959 --> 03:07:10,440
you have a movement within a society, and you think

3131
03:07:10,479 --> 03:07:14,040
it's a political movement and it's run by one person

3132
03:07:14,520 --> 03:07:18,079
and there's just one person you're looking to, and there's

3133
03:07:18,200 --> 03:07:21,159
no obvious second in command, there's no one there to

3134
03:07:21,319 --> 03:07:24,319
step up if that one person gets taken out, you

3135
03:07:24,360 --> 03:07:25,520
don't have a movement.

3136
03:07:26,520 --> 03:07:29,200
Speaker 4: Right exactly if what you do it and I would

3137
03:07:29,200 --> 03:07:31,120
compare strong, compare.

3138
03:07:31,200 --> 03:07:34,000
Speaker 3: Harshly with the Bolsheviks, who did not operate this way.

3139
03:07:34,040 --> 03:07:37,079
Speaker 4: Actually, so like the Bolsheviks are this weird asterisks because

3140
03:07:37,079 --> 03:07:39,879
they really were a kind of cybernetic entity where if

3141
03:07:40,079 --> 03:07:42,840
somebody had managed to off Lenen, you know, there's like

3142
03:07:42,879 --> 03:07:45,520
there's there's a whole group of people that get called

3143
03:07:45,520 --> 03:07:49,559
the old Bolsheviks that theoretically we're all interchangeable with one another,

3144
03:07:49,639 --> 03:07:49,840
you know.

3145
03:07:51,559 --> 03:07:55,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, the social pressures that act as a source sources

3146
03:07:55,440 --> 03:07:58,239
of strength of an instructional party may lead to its revival,

3147
03:07:58,520 --> 03:08:00,399
but this would not take place in the show period

3148
03:08:00,440 --> 03:08:04,760
of time that concerns us. The vulnerability of insurrectional parties

3149
03:08:04,799 --> 03:08:07,680
was strikingly demonstrated in the case of the Muslim Brotherhood,

3150
03:08:08,000 --> 03:08:11,719
a major force in each Egyptian political life after the war.

3151
03:08:12,760 --> 03:08:16,959
Its large mass following in network, its network of economic

3152
03:08:16,959 --> 03:08:20,879
and educational activities, and its paramilitary youth groups gave it

3153
03:08:20,920 --> 03:08:25,520
a great deal of direct power. Its effectiveness, however, derived

3154
03:08:25,600 --> 03:08:29,559
largely from the coherent leadership of its founder, Shikasan Albana,

3155
03:08:29,959 --> 03:08:34,479
and the movement rapidly declined after his death in unexplained

3156
03:08:34,479 --> 03:08:38,600
circumstances just after the failed coup of late nineteen forty eight.

3157
03:08:40,040 --> 03:08:43,239
Where necessary, therefore, the committee or personal leadership of the

3158
03:08:43,280 --> 03:08:47,040
insurrectional Party should be arrested and held in isolation for

3159
03:08:47,079 --> 03:08:50,239
the duration of the coup. Because of the emphasis on

3160
03:08:50,680 --> 03:08:55,040
party discipline, the Beheaded Movement will probably abstain from action

3161
03:08:55,239 --> 03:08:58,639
in the short but critical period following our seizure of

3162
03:08:58,799 --> 03:09:04,600
power power of bureaucratic parties.

3163
03:09:06,200 --> 03:09:07,600
Speaker 3: And interesting.

3164
03:09:09,120 --> 03:09:12,399
Speaker 4: Before you get started, Yeah, this one's sort of interesting

3165
03:09:12,440 --> 03:09:18,440
because what he's doing here is it's actually collapsing to uh,

3166
03:09:18,479 --> 03:09:20,840
you know, I'm actually trying to think about how you

3167
03:09:20,879 --> 03:09:24,159
would you know, model it onto logically right now the

3168
03:09:24,200 --> 03:09:27,440
way you would just because what he's doing is taking

3169
03:09:27,440 --> 03:09:30,319
a structure that we would normally conceive of is differing

3170
03:09:30,360 --> 03:09:35,440
structures and he's actually bundling them all into one, into one.

3171
03:09:35,399 --> 03:09:37,399
Speaker 3: Subclass of political party here.

3172
03:09:37,479 --> 03:09:40,360
Speaker 4: So like what and one interesting things he's doing here

3173
03:09:40,479 --> 03:09:47,799
is he's actually he's he's removing the the really removing

3174
03:09:47,840 --> 03:09:52,399
the connection between you know, the people and the parties

3175
03:09:52,399 --> 03:09:54,879
that are represented. So now he's now he's he's treating

3176
03:09:55,559 --> 03:10:00,000
you know, the bureaucracy as its own, you know, abstract

3177
03:10:00,159 --> 03:10:01,920
class is what he's doing here.

3178
03:10:02,040 --> 03:10:04,399
Speaker 3: And this is you know, this is another one of

3179
03:10:04,440 --> 03:10:04,719
these things.

3180
03:10:04,719 --> 03:10:07,079
Speaker 4: It starts to get it starts to get really big

3181
03:10:07,120 --> 03:10:11,440
in the nineteen sixties and it becomes increasingly important for

3182
03:10:11,879 --> 03:10:15,760
you know, world systems analysis, geopolitical analysis, and pretty much everything.

3183
03:10:17,079 --> 03:10:21,000
You know, this is one of these you know, concept

3184
03:10:21,079 --> 03:10:24,000
splitting is what I call it. You have to kind

3185
03:10:24,040 --> 03:10:26,840
of if you want to understand the world after nineteen sixty,

3186
03:10:26,920 --> 03:10:32,319
you got to grap what's going on here, all right.

3187
03:10:33,799 --> 03:10:38,319
Speaker 1: Parabierancratic parties in one party state such as China, most notably,

3188
03:10:38,559 --> 03:10:41,159
the party itself has lost its major role of securing

3189
03:10:41,200 --> 03:10:44,719
the allegiance of the masses. Because it is a monopoly.

3190
03:10:44,840 --> 03:10:48,959
The party is also in danger of appearing superfluous. But

3191
03:10:49,479 --> 03:10:52,680
like any other bureaucratic organization, the party can survive the

3192
03:10:52,719 --> 03:10:55,680
loss of its primary function, either as a system as

3193
03:10:55,760 --> 03:10:59,920
foliation or as an ancillary or supervisor of the administ

3194
03:11:00,040 --> 03:11:05,600
traded bureaucracy of the state. African parties formed during the

3195
03:11:05,600 --> 03:11:10,559
political struggles which preceded independence tended to legislate their monopoly

3196
03:11:10,600 --> 03:11:13,520
of power as soon as they had attained it. Some

3197
03:11:13,639 --> 03:11:16,920
like the Tanzania and African National Union c A ANDU,

3198
03:11:17,280 --> 03:11:20,879
have turned into constructive galvanizers of the communal and state

3199
03:11:20,959 --> 03:11:28,120
development programs. Others, like Macuma's old party in Ghana, become

3200
03:11:28,600 --> 03:11:32,440
adjuncts to the personal leadership and a system of outdoor

3201
03:11:32,479 --> 03:11:38,000
relief for his activist followers. The majority, however, until swept

3202
03:11:38,000 --> 03:11:41,680
away by the military dictatorships, have acted as the principal

3203
03:11:41,760 --> 03:11:45,520
agent in the main local industry politics.

3204
03:11:47,200 --> 03:11:50,360
Speaker 4: This also, by the way, this is me as really

3205
03:11:50,399 --> 03:11:55,079
my formal field of expertise. Actually, like it seems buried

3206
03:11:55,079 --> 03:11:57,920
in the rubble compared to what I actually do now.

3207
03:11:58,559 --> 03:12:02,280
But it's actually the antepelops out And it's like the

3208
03:12:02,319 --> 03:12:07,120
situation you describe actually describes Southern politics, possibly up to

3209
03:12:07,159 --> 03:12:09,959
the present, and to such an extent that I tell

3210
03:12:09,959 --> 03:12:14,239
people frequently that Southerners in a sense, or even Americans,

3211
03:12:14,280 --> 03:12:17,000
because Americans don't really have politics the way we do,

3212
03:12:17,040 --> 03:12:20,920
where like every interaction with the Southerner is a political action,

3213
03:12:21,760 --> 03:12:25,559
you know. It's it's like our notre like cultural shared

3214
03:12:25,600 --> 03:12:30,040
ethno ethno language is politics. Like it's the sort of

3215
03:12:30,719 --> 03:12:32,760
comparison that I've made before. I'm not as happy with

3216
03:12:32,799 --> 03:12:35,000
the comparisons they used to be, but that's just something

3217
03:12:35,040 --> 03:12:36,200
I thought was interesting here.

3218
03:12:39,319 --> 03:12:43,120
Speaker 1: The para bureaucratic party treats the state bureaucracy as to subordinate.

3219
03:12:44,879 --> 03:12:47,879
It investigates its activities, reports on its behavior to the

3220
03:12:47,959 --> 03:12:52,719
higher leadership, and often demands special privileges and concessions. These

3221
03:12:52,760 --> 03:12:54,959
parties do not have a mass following except within the

3222
03:12:54,959 --> 03:12:58,280
framework of normal political life, when they can be relied

3223
03:12:58,360 --> 03:13:02,239
upon to produce demonstrates for this or that stand of

3224
03:13:02,280 --> 03:13:05,559
the leadership. As soon as the whold of the leadership

3225
03:13:05,600 --> 03:13:08,799
is strength is threatened. As soon as the police apparatus

3226
03:13:08,840 --> 03:13:13,959
no longer acts as its muscle, the power bureaucratic party dissolves. Therefore,

3227
03:13:14,000 --> 03:13:17,879
we can ignore it in the active stage of the coup. However,

3228
03:13:18,079 --> 03:13:22,360
its secondary function, that of intelligence and security, will be important,

3229
03:13:22,399 --> 03:13:24,520
and we will be dealt with as part of the

3230
03:13:24,559 --> 03:13:33,319
general defensive measures towards such organizations. Parties in developed countries,

3231
03:13:35,399 --> 03:13:37,600
whether it is a two party system as in much

3232
03:13:37,639 --> 03:13:40,479
of the Anglo Saxon world, where parties are in effect

3233
03:13:40,479 --> 03:13:44,159
coalitions of pressure groups, or whether they are class or

3234
03:13:44,200 --> 03:13:48,040
religion based parties of much of continental Europe. The major

3235
03:13:48,079 --> 03:13:51,600
political parties in developed in democratic countries will not present

3236
03:13:51,719 --> 03:13:55,920
a direct threat to the coup. Though such parties have

3237
03:13:56,000 --> 03:14:00,239
mass supported election time, neither they nor their followers are

3238
03:14:00,319 --> 03:14:06,479
versed in the techniques of mass agitation. The comparative stability

3239
03:14:06,479 --> 03:14:10,440
of political life has deprived them of the experience required

3240
03:14:10,479 --> 03:14:13,399
to employ direct methods, and the whole climate of their

3241
03:14:13,440 --> 03:14:19,159
operation revolves around the concept of periodic elections. Even where

3242
03:14:19,200 --> 03:14:22,760
there are still nominally revolutionary parties, as in France and Italy,

3243
03:14:23,120 --> 03:14:26,440
two or more decades of parliamentary life have reduced their

3244
03:14:26,479 --> 03:14:29,040
affinity and revolutionary methods.

3245
03:14:29,760 --> 03:14:32,879
Speaker 4: Now Here, here we have the actually, this is the

3246
03:14:33,440 --> 03:14:36,680
you know the ichor and break the neo cons right here.

3247
03:14:37,239 --> 03:14:38,920
This is one of the assumptions that turned out to

3248
03:14:38,959 --> 03:14:43,440
be wrong, and it's why there's not very many of

3249
03:14:43,479 --> 03:14:47,399
them left because they didn't. They didn't they actually believed

3250
03:14:48,159 --> 03:14:52,760
their own bullshit about you know this, you know of

3251
03:14:52,799 --> 03:14:57,239
the Democrat party doesn't have the ability to deploy mass agitations.

3252
03:14:57,360 --> 03:15:01,559
It doesn't understand how to use political party political power properly.

3253
03:15:01,680 --> 03:15:04,719
So this was a real, this is a real, actual

3254
03:15:05,120 --> 03:15:08,879
domestic home front assumption of the neocons that ended up

3255
03:15:08,920 --> 03:15:09,440
being wrong.

3256
03:15:13,040 --> 03:15:17,239
Speaker 1: Well, you know, I think of if they really wanted to,

3257
03:15:17,280 --> 03:15:20,399
if the Democrats really wanted to unleash say like anti file,

3258
03:15:20,520 --> 03:15:23,360
Black Lives Matter or something like that, and unleash it

3259
03:15:23,520 --> 03:15:27,600
in a way that would cause revolutionary change, that would

3260
03:15:27,639 --> 03:15:30,879
be in the kind of violence we're talking about here,

3261
03:15:31,920 --> 03:15:37,159
the court systems would basically not be would probably not

3262
03:15:37,239 --> 03:15:41,360
be functioning, so you know, crazy white guys with guns

3263
03:15:42,520 --> 03:15:46,479
could actually fight back, and they would. They wouldn't have

3264
03:15:46,479 --> 03:15:48,920
the support of the state, but they wouldn't have the

3265
03:15:48,959 --> 03:15:51,479
state breathing down their neck with DA's looking to throw

3266
03:15:51,479 --> 03:15:52,079
them in jail.

3267
03:15:52,799 --> 03:15:55,159
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, it's a seriously ugly situation.

3268
03:15:55,559 --> 03:15:59,120
Speaker 4: It like like like should that's This is actually the

3269
03:15:59,159 --> 03:16:02,719
reason why the Democrats, I mean, I'm a registered Democrats.

3270
03:16:02,719 --> 03:16:04,879
The reason why the Democrats make me more nervous right

3271
03:16:04,920 --> 03:16:06,879
now than the Republicans do is that, you know, I

3272
03:16:06,879 --> 03:16:09,520
sort of perceived that you nineties is at this like

3273
03:16:09,600 --> 03:16:15,079
particular catastrophic point in its history, and that like anyone

3274
03:16:15,360 --> 03:16:20,000
getting really jumpy will cause problems, and the Republicans, I like,

3275
03:16:20,280 --> 03:16:21,479
I can't can't get anything together.

3276
03:16:21,559 --> 03:16:22,520
Speaker 3: Let's just go with them.

3277
03:16:23,520 --> 03:16:26,680
Speaker 4: We'll just get we'll get four years of relative boringness

3278
03:16:26,959 --> 03:16:28,159
from the Republicans.

3279
03:16:28,200 --> 03:16:29,559
Speaker 3: I don't know the Democrats are.

3280
03:16:29,719 --> 03:16:33,559
Speaker 4: They're like, I'm afraid they'll push the advantage and like

3281
03:16:34,280 --> 03:16:36,639
create some situation like that out of like a dude

3282
03:16:36,719 --> 03:16:38,799
frying a turkey on Thanksgiving or something.

3283
03:16:41,639 --> 03:16:44,600
Speaker 1: I have a tendency to believe. I think Charles Haywood

3284
03:16:44,959 --> 03:16:47,399
describes it this way, that the regime right now is

3285
03:16:47,479 --> 03:16:51,079
like one hundred foot one hundred foot tall toddler with

3286
03:16:51,200 --> 03:16:52,200
a butcher knife.

3287
03:16:52,760 --> 03:16:53,600
Speaker 3: Yeah that's definitely.

3288
03:16:53,680 --> 03:16:58,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's like really dangerous, but all it needs to

3289
03:16:58,799 --> 03:17:01,520
do is step in a ditch and it basically it's

3290
03:17:01,559 --> 03:17:02,280
out of commission.

3291
03:17:03,000 --> 03:17:05,639
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, that's that's true. That's it.

3292
03:17:06,000 --> 03:17:08,760
Speaker 4: The you know, the international situation is everybody else is

3293
03:17:08,799 --> 03:17:11,840
also like everyone else is equally eggshell.

3294
03:17:11,959 --> 03:17:12,120
Speaker 3: Then.

3295
03:17:12,959 --> 03:17:15,200
Speaker 4: But I also would point at Haywood is the guy

3296
03:17:15,399 --> 03:17:18,200
who is making He's like he's going from shampoo magnet

3297
03:17:18,680 --> 03:17:23,079
to like, you know, right wing genius, specifically because he's

3298
03:17:23,120 --> 03:17:25,600
the guy that has managed to turn a message, like

3299
03:17:25,680 --> 03:17:28,719
create a message out of what I just said, which

3300
03:17:28,760 --> 03:17:30,959
is this was one of the new kinds assumptions that

3301
03:17:31,280 --> 03:17:33,319
turned out not to be true.

3302
03:17:33,600 --> 03:17:38,239
Speaker 3: It's like that's his whole that's his whole stick, all right,

3303
03:17:38,440 --> 03:17:42,040
you're right, yeah, I keep going, yeah yeah.

3304
03:17:42,120 --> 03:17:45,639
Speaker 1: The apparatus of the party, with its branches and local organizers,

3305
03:17:45,680 --> 03:17:49,079
can however, allow them to perform a role of information

3306
03:17:49,239 --> 03:17:54,399
gathering and coordination which could be potentially dangerous. Even though

3307
03:17:54,399 --> 03:17:57,280
their leadership may not take any action, the apparatus can

3308
03:17:57,319 --> 03:18:03,479
still serve as the framework for anti coup agitation. Coup

3309
03:18:03,520 --> 03:18:09,719
agitation period closing administratively, the network of branches should be

3310
03:18:09,760 --> 03:18:15,079
sufficient to neutralize this particular threat. The only serious threat

3311
03:18:15,079 --> 03:18:17,879
from this direction will come from the trade union movements

3312
03:18:17,920 --> 03:18:21,479
affiliated with the mass parties to the left. Their experience

3313
03:18:21,520 --> 03:18:25,600
of industrial agitation has provided a natural training for mass

3314
03:18:25,639 --> 03:18:29,200
intervention against the coup. But this will be dealt with separately. Below.

3315
03:18:30,239 --> 03:18:32,639
This sounds like that. That part sounds like he wrote

3316
03:18:32,680 --> 03:18:35,319
it in the sixties. That doesn't sound like from the

3317
03:18:35,879 --> 03:18:36,879
na be part. Right.

3318
03:18:37,079 --> 03:18:38,719
Speaker 3: I was gonna put that as well.

3319
03:18:38,760 --> 03:18:41,879
Speaker 4: He's like literally talking about long shoreman Steve ADOR's and

3320
03:18:41,920 --> 03:18:43,840
this is that old left, you know. Actually low the

3321
03:18:43,920 --> 03:18:46,639
day was of all people pointed out this yesterday that

3322
03:18:46,840 --> 03:18:49,959
had like most of us been around at that point,

3323
03:18:50,040 --> 03:18:53,239
we would have been hanging out with the longshoremen in

3324
03:18:53,280 --> 03:18:53,920
the like.

3325
03:18:53,920 --> 03:18:56,000
Speaker 3: Communist unions just because they were cooler.

3326
03:18:56,600 --> 03:18:58,920
Speaker 4: Like this is like the early beat, dude, like the

3327
03:18:58,959 --> 03:19:01,239
early beat generating, which is kind of like one of

3328
03:19:01,239 --> 03:19:02,959
my hobby horses.

3329
03:19:03,399 --> 03:19:05,440
Speaker 3: They were around at the tail end. So this is

3330
03:19:05,479 --> 03:19:06,559
the very.

3331
03:19:06,200 --> 03:19:12,200
Speaker 4: Tail end of like the like actual influence of the

3332
03:19:12,239 --> 03:19:17,440
wobblies and in the Democratic Party, and before the unions

3333
03:19:17,479 --> 03:19:18,959
turned into fronts for the mob.

3334
03:19:19,040 --> 03:19:20,559
Speaker 3: I mean they kind of already were.

3335
03:19:20,600 --> 03:19:24,680
Speaker 4: But before it got decadent, when like the unions could

3336
03:19:24,680 --> 03:19:26,600
still deliver actual muscle.

3337
03:19:29,479 --> 03:19:36,840
Speaker 1: Already. Next section deal with the trade unions. Wherever there

3338
03:19:36,920 --> 03:19:40,000
is a significant degree of industrial development, and in many

3339
03:19:40,000 --> 03:19:42,719
countries where there is not, trade unions are a major

3340
03:19:42,760 --> 03:19:45,959
political force. I guess we'll just have a little history here.

3341
03:19:46,040 --> 03:19:51,840
I mean, my my my dad was utt hit his

3342
03:19:51,840 --> 03:19:56,600
his stepdad was teamsters. So really stories growth.

3343
03:19:58,159 --> 03:20:01,239
Speaker 4: That's a that's an aspect, that's the aspect of the

3344
03:20:01,239 --> 03:20:04,719
American experience that fascinates me because I mean I am

3345
03:20:04,760 --> 03:20:08,559
like from like as like stale white red wasp family as.

3346
03:20:08,479 --> 03:20:12,719
Speaker 3: You can get, you know, and like I like always look.

3347
03:20:12,719 --> 03:20:15,879
Speaker 4: When I meet other people, I'm always amazed, And that

3348
03:20:16,040 --> 03:20:17,680
is one of the that's like one of the like

3349
03:20:17,760 --> 03:20:21,040
lineages of American that I think is super cool, but

3350
03:20:21,239 --> 03:20:22,760
like it's so foreign to me.

3351
03:20:22,840 --> 03:20:23,840
Speaker 3: It's it's amazing.

3352
03:20:25,920 --> 03:20:27,959
Speaker 1: I have stories I'll tell you privately because if I

3353
03:20:28,040 --> 03:20:31,920
told them public and no one would believe them. Yeah, yeah,

3354
03:20:32,239 --> 03:20:34,559
the stories that I was told, no one will believe them.

3355
03:20:34,719 --> 03:20:39,239
But yeah, all right. Because of their experience with industrial agitation,

3356
03:20:39,479 --> 03:20:42,559
which can be readily applied to political purposes, the responsive

3357
03:20:42,600 --> 03:20:45,600
trade unions to the coup could constitute a serious danger

3358
03:20:45,680 --> 03:20:49,079
to us. The mass following of trade unions, unlike that

3359
03:20:49,120 --> 03:20:53,239
at political parties, is in continuous session. Polling foods are

3360
03:20:53,280 --> 03:20:56,840
only open once every five years, but factories work all

3361
03:20:56,920 --> 03:21:00,440
year round. The immediacy of the threat presented by trade

3362
03:21:00,520 --> 03:21:04,000
unions will depend on their size, cohesion, and degree of militancy.

3363
03:21:04,440 --> 03:21:07,959
The fragmented syndicalism of the United Kingdom, with its purely

3364
03:21:07,959 --> 03:21:11,920
electoral politics, would not, for example, add up to the

3365
03:21:11,959 --> 03:21:15,360
threat of, say, the Italian movement, with its centralization and

3366
03:21:15,399 --> 03:21:19,719
long history of political strikes. So question, could one of

3367
03:21:19,799 --> 03:21:27,600
the purposes of moving manufacturing off off continent be to

3368
03:21:27,639 --> 03:21:31,040
just break up the the power of trade unions.

3369
03:21:31,920 --> 03:21:34,840
Speaker 4: That's that was certainly a theory that was floated at

3370
03:21:34,879 --> 03:21:37,280
the time, and there were a lot of Jimmy Carter

3371
03:21:37,399 --> 03:21:39,239
voters that thought that was what was going on.

3372
03:21:40,120 --> 03:21:43,239
Speaker 3: This is like that's a total, totally a thing.

3373
03:21:45,040 --> 03:21:47,920
Speaker 4: Whether or not it happened, I don't know, Like this

3374
03:21:48,079 --> 03:21:50,479
is like okay, once you get to this point, this

3375
03:21:50,600 --> 03:21:53,479
is like one of the reasons why I like like

3376
03:21:53,600 --> 03:21:58,159
have to give like like serious conspiracy theories theory, serious

3377
03:21:58,200 --> 03:22:01,719
conspiracy theorists like a glass of sweet tea and like

3378
03:22:01,760 --> 03:22:04,760
sit sit on porch with them at the barbecue, because

3379
03:22:05,120 --> 03:22:07,319
I'll sit there and listen to them, and I'll be like, yeah,

3380
03:22:07,360 --> 03:22:10,600
it's true, man, it's true. It's because like almost everything

3381
03:22:10,719 --> 03:22:13,280
is true to one degree or another, Like.

3382
03:22:13,280 --> 03:22:17,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, they were because of that para bureaucratic party, the

3383
03:22:17,319 --> 03:22:19,760
thing we call the deep state, where all these federal

3384
03:22:19,799 --> 03:22:23,520
agencies in the hive mind in DC are working at

3385
03:22:23,520 --> 03:22:27,239
cross odds and not really ever sharing information.

3386
03:22:27,280 --> 03:22:28,559
Speaker 4: But like I don't know if you know this about

3387
03:22:28,639 --> 03:22:32,120
like federal agencies, like they don't do much data sharing.

3388
03:22:32,680 --> 03:22:34,920
Speaker 3: They never had, they still don't, they have.

3389
03:22:35,040 --> 03:22:38,319
Speaker 4: Not you know, they they don't like the you know,

3390
03:22:38,559 --> 03:22:41,920
state doesn't really talk to DoD so on and so forth.

3391
03:22:41,959 --> 03:22:44,280
Speaker 3: There's a lot of like Paara, you know, there's a lot.

3392
03:22:44,200 --> 03:22:46,600
Speaker 4: Of room for these you know, groups to maneuver around

3393
03:22:46,639 --> 03:22:49,680
and and any of them deciding to get that.

3394
03:22:49,840 --> 03:22:52,799
Speaker 3: You know, we need to get this industrial muscle offshore.

3395
03:22:53,719 --> 03:22:57,520
Speaker 4: That makes kind of sense because in the nineteen seventies

3396
03:22:57,559 --> 03:23:02,360
we were getting very nervous about the the effectiveness in

3397
03:23:02,799 --> 03:23:09,079
particularly Zapatista governments for us to do something like offload

3398
03:23:09,239 --> 03:23:12,239
with So we get rid of our communist labor movements

3399
03:23:12,479 --> 03:23:15,440
and we go down there and we establish free trade

3400
03:23:15,479 --> 03:23:23,399
movements and get cheap labor. Yeah, so I had never

3401
03:23:23,440 --> 03:23:25,680
thought about that, but it lines up perfectly.

3402
03:23:25,719 --> 03:23:26,639
Speaker 3: That's totally what happened.

3403
03:23:26,719 --> 03:23:30,959
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're gonna finish up this chapter and just end

3404
03:23:31,000 --> 03:23:33,600
it because we won't start chapter five. And plus I

3405
03:23:33,600 --> 03:23:35,920
gotta I just got a message, I gotta go do something,

3406
03:23:36,000 --> 03:23:39,120
so at the time to finish us up, all right.

3407
03:23:39,200 --> 03:23:42,559
The experience of Bolivia after it's April nineteen fifty two revolution,

3408
03:23:42,799 --> 03:23:45,799
which up ended the social order, illustrates how a single

3409
03:23:45,840 --> 03:23:49,680
trade union and its activities can dominate a country's political life.

3410
03:23:50,280 --> 03:23:52,879
Bolivia was the poorest country in all of Latin America

3411
03:23:52,959 --> 03:23:57,479
with an economy characterized by subsistence farming and the activities

3412
03:23:57,520 --> 03:24:01,239
of the large tin industry before the revolution and the

3413
03:24:01,319 --> 03:24:05,440
nationalization of the mines owned by the Patino, Adamayo and

3414
03:24:05,559 --> 03:24:09,600
hook Child Hawkscheld family. That one of those doesn't seem

3415
03:24:09,719 --> 03:24:14,120
like the other. The miners had had worked in physical

3416
03:24:14,120 --> 03:24:18,959
and economic conditions of extreme harshness. Following their emancipation, they

3417
03:24:19,040 --> 03:24:22,879
naturally wanted to achieve immediate and substantial improvements in these

3418
03:24:22,920 --> 03:24:29,520
conditions and comable The State Ten Mining Organization started immediate reforms.

3419
03:24:31,319 --> 03:24:34,239
It was soon discovered, however, that the geological and economic

3420
03:24:34,280 --> 03:24:37,760
conditions of the industry required an increase in productivity, which

3421
03:24:37,799 --> 03:24:41,200
could only be achieved by introducing much new machinery and

3422
03:24:41,239 --> 03:24:45,399
reducing the labor force. As the only source of capital

3423
03:24:45,479 --> 03:24:48,879
was the United was the United States, the miners leaders

3424
03:24:48,879 --> 03:24:52,399
opposed to reforms on the dual plank of no yankee

3425
03:24:52,840 --> 03:24:59,079
or junkie read yankee capitalism and no redundancies. Such problems

3426
03:24:59,079 --> 03:25:01,399
are familiar. Yes, I'm on that.

3427
03:25:01,520 --> 03:25:02,600
Speaker 3: I love.

3428
03:25:02,159 --> 03:25:06,079
Speaker 4: I just love Latin American politics, like like, genuinely like

3429
03:25:06,159 --> 03:25:10,479
when boliviate when Venezuela was threatening to invade that French

3430
03:25:10,520 --> 03:25:15,000
colony last year, I got like, I got genuinely romantic

3431
03:25:15,200 --> 03:25:17,719
in the for the you know, the Venezuelan National Cause.

3432
03:25:17,760 --> 03:25:20,239
Speaker 3: For a minute. They cracked me up.

3433
03:25:20,280 --> 03:25:23,200
Speaker 4: I feel like, if like, if like everything goes I'm

3434
03:25:22,959 --> 03:25:25,159
I'm thinking about moving to El salvad where it's like,

3435
03:25:25,399 --> 03:25:27,680
let's just do it, just go full Banana Republic.

3436
03:25:28,879 --> 03:25:31,520
Speaker 1: Well, get down there before it gets starts getting expensive.

3437
03:25:32,479 --> 03:25:35,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, it's true. Mexico c Yeah, Mexico City is

3438
03:25:35,120 --> 03:25:35,639
already bad.

3439
03:25:37,079 --> 03:25:41,120
Speaker 1: Yeah. Such problems are familiar from nearer home. But the

3440
03:25:41,159 --> 03:25:44,000
crucial difference was that the miners were also an army.

3441
03:25:44,559 --> 03:25:46,600
They had been armed by the middle class leaders of

3442
03:25:46,680 --> 03:25:53,719
the Revolutionary Movemento Nationalista Revolutionario Party m n R in

3443
03:25:53,840 --> 03:25:56,159
order to act as a counterweight to the old army

3444
03:25:56,200 --> 03:26:01,079
dominated by associates of the mine owners. The revolutions disbanded

3445
03:26:01,159 --> 03:26:03,239
the army so that the miners could not only exert

3446
03:26:03,319 --> 03:26:07,120
political and economic pressures, but also more direct military methods.

3447
03:26:08,040 --> 03:26:10,719
Until the m n R leadership found a counterweight in

3448
03:26:10,760 --> 03:26:15,399
the unions organized against the peasant farmers the Indian company Compassinos,

3449
03:26:16,000 --> 03:26:19,040
who were also armed, the miners had things pretty much

3450
03:26:19,079 --> 03:26:27,079
their way, led by militants of the Katavi siglo vente mines.

3451
03:26:27,600 --> 03:26:31,319
Speaker 4: I wonder the moans that it's the Vatican Bank. Eventually,

3452
03:26:31,520 --> 03:26:35,719
you know, that's literally all of this is going on.

3453
03:26:38,200 --> 03:26:43,319
Speaker 1: The miners imposed the control of Kamabal and therefore on

3454
03:26:43,399 --> 03:26:46,040
the country which depends on it as the major source

3455
03:26:46,079 --> 03:26:49,559
of foreign exchange. Certainly, no coup could have held on

3456
03:26:49,639 --> 03:26:52,559
to power without the miners consent, and had the central

3457
03:26:52,559 --> 03:26:56,159
institutions in La Pause been seized, the real power base

3458
03:26:56,280 --> 03:26:58,920
in the mines would still have been under the control

3459
03:26:59,000 --> 03:27:03,719
of the union leaders even without the special circumstances that

3460
03:27:03,760 --> 03:27:06,479
existed in Bolivia. Trade unions will often be a major

3461
03:27:06,479 --> 03:27:10,159
political force, especially in terms of the situation immediately following

3462
03:27:10,200 --> 03:27:14,159
a coup, but much will depend on the particular organizational

3463
03:27:14,200 --> 03:27:17,040
structure of the trade unions, and crucially on the degree

3464
03:27:17,040 --> 03:27:21,920
of effective centralization and the nature of their political affiliations.

3465
03:27:21,959 --> 03:27:25,000
In the United Kingdom, with as much weakened trade unions,

3466
03:27:25,200 --> 03:27:28,959
their main focus of decision making is the executive of

3467
03:27:29,120 --> 03:27:33,000
individual unions, but in some of them it can easily

3468
03:27:33,040 --> 03:27:37,760
shift to the shop floor. Apart from this fragmentation, which

3469
03:27:37,799 --> 03:27:41,200
would at least impair the speed of reaction to a coup,

3470
03:27:41,760 --> 03:27:45,000
the largely mainstream politics of British labor would not be

3471
03:27:45,040 --> 03:27:47,360
a suitable framework for direct measures.

3472
03:27:49,079 --> 03:27:52,399
Speaker 4: Yeah, like there's nothing in the there's also whether there's

3473
03:27:52,479 --> 03:27:56,760
nothing in the UK that can move on. This is

3474
03:27:56,760 --> 03:27:58,639
the reason why I have so many problems right now.

3475
03:27:58,959 --> 03:28:01,879
The only INTI see the inside the UK that can

3476
03:28:01,920 --> 03:28:05,040
move can mobilize enough people at one time to be

3477
03:28:05,079 --> 03:28:09,840
politically effected as Muslims. And that's the reason why like

3478
03:28:10,000 --> 03:28:13,360
it's become terror island now is because the only literally

3479
03:28:13,399 --> 03:28:16,079
the only group that can exert any kind of like

3480
03:28:16,159 --> 03:28:20,239
coherence is the like is the migrant one. So I

3481
03:28:21,399 --> 03:28:27,440
you know, game over. Sorry, had a good run and

3482
03:28:27,920 --> 03:28:29,799
alienated a third of the audience.

3483
03:28:30,639 --> 03:28:37,159
Speaker 1: Sorry about that. Yeah, I mean that's definitely from the

3484
03:28:37,159 --> 03:28:39,200
outside looking in, definitely looks that.

3485
03:28:39,120 --> 03:28:41,319
Speaker 3: Way, and it's just not good.

3486
03:28:43,440 --> 03:28:45,719
Speaker 1: And France and Italy, the trade union movement is not

3487
03:28:45,799 --> 03:28:48,920
divided on craft lines, as in Britain, or on industrial

3488
03:28:48,959 --> 03:28:51,639
lines as in the United States and much of northern Europe,

3489
03:28:51,840 --> 03:28:56,120
but on political lines. Individual industrial unions are affiliated with

3490
03:28:56,200 --> 03:29:00,200
central organizations, which in turn are associated with political parties.

3491
03:29:00,760 --> 03:29:03,879
In both countries, the largest organization was long controlled by

3492
03:29:03,920 --> 03:29:08,360
the country's Communist party, with smaller social democratic and Catholic

3493
03:29:08,440 --> 03:29:13,920
trade union organizations affiliated to the respective parties. The communist

3494
03:29:14,399 --> 03:29:19,399
labor organizations CGL in Italy and CGT in France expressed

3495
03:29:19,399 --> 03:29:23,200
their militant activism in political and general strikes, but all

3496
03:29:23,200 --> 03:29:26,040
that ended long ago with the collapse of the respective

3497
03:29:26,239 --> 03:29:31,399
communist parties. Unless our coup is directly linked to them,

3498
03:29:31,440 --> 03:29:35,399
the central organizations of French and Italian trade unionism would

3499
03:29:35,399 --> 03:29:38,639
react to it, and do so in a predict predictable ways.

3500
03:29:39,680 --> 03:29:43,239
Immediately after the coup, they would a try to establish

3501
03:29:43,280 --> 03:29:46,879
contact with our democratic forces to form a popular front opposition,

3502
03:29:47,719 --> 03:29:51,440
b contact their national network of branches to coordinate a

3503
03:29:51,520 --> 03:29:57,000
general strike, and c put into execution their contingency plans

3504
03:29:57,120 --> 03:30:02,840
for underground activity and illegal survival. The only tactic which

3505
03:30:02,840 --> 03:30:05,639
would present a threat to us is the general strike,

3506
03:30:05,840 --> 03:30:08,799
which would be organized with the deliberate intention of confronting

3507
03:30:08,840 --> 03:30:13,239
the forces of the coup. Our general measures would affect

3508
03:30:13,239 --> 03:30:17,200
the overall performance of this emergency program, but specific action

3509
03:30:17,319 --> 03:30:19,680
would be needed as well in order to avoid the

3510
03:30:19,719 --> 03:30:24,559
confrontation that the unions would probably seek. Both the CGT

3511
03:30:25,040 --> 03:30:27,959
and the CGL have memories of their of the wartime

3512
03:30:28,040 --> 03:30:31,639
resistance movements. Both are aware of the destabilizing nature of

3513
03:30:31,680 --> 03:30:35,479
open repression, and they would therefore try to provoke us

3514
03:30:35,520 --> 03:30:37,120
into using violence.

3515
03:30:39,719 --> 03:30:43,200
Speaker 4: That the form of that's that is, that's gone now,

3516
03:30:43,280 --> 03:30:45,440
that's the that's the well, you know argue.

3517
03:30:45,520 --> 03:30:47,399
Speaker 3: We still see more of it in France.

3518
03:30:47,719 --> 03:30:49,479
Speaker 4: This is the reason why France is by far the

3519
03:30:49,479 --> 03:30:53,120
most interesting European countries, because they have they still have

3520
03:30:54,239 --> 03:30:58,280
some their part their political party stuff, some backbone, and

3521
03:30:58,319 --> 03:31:02,040
they do still have some measure of militancy in their population.

3522
03:31:02,760 --> 03:31:04,639
And it's a big country and it's spread out. There's

3523
03:31:04,680 --> 03:31:07,680
a lot of reasons, but there's like France's you know, France,

3524
03:31:07,920 --> 03:31:11,040
this is now. There's no way to put it. These

3525
03:31:11,040 --> 03:31:14,760
conditions have receded significant. There's nobody in the They had

3526
03:31:14,799 --> 03:31:17,639
French resistance guys to mobilize back then, you.

3527
03:31:17,559 --> 03:31:18,840
Speaker 3: Know, don't have that now.

3528
03:31:22,479 --> 03:31:25,200
Speaker 1: Though some form of confrontation may be inevitable, it is

3529
03:31:25,280 --> 03:31:28,760
essential to avoid bloodshed because this may well have crucial

3530
03:31:28,840 --> 03:31:32,319
negative repercussions among the personnel of the armed forces and

3531
03:31:32,360 --> 03:31:36,879
the police. The avoidance of bloodshed intense crowd situations as

3532
03:31:36,920 --> 03:31:40,360
a matter of technique and competent handling of our incorporated,

3533
03:31:40,440 --> 03:31:44,879
armed and uniformed forces will be essential. The incidents of

3534
03:31:45,120 --> 03:31:48,959
Reggio Emilia in Italy in summer of nineteen sixty four,

3535
03:31:49,360 --> 03:31:52,840
in which seven people died following a political strike, illustrated

3536
03:31:52,840 --> 03:31:55,959
how an incompetent police force can impair the authority of

3537
03:31:56,000 --> 03:31:59,879
the government it is trying to protect. If the trade

3538
03:31:59,840 --> 03:32:03,760
you us of our target country approximate to Franco Italian

3539
03:32:03,879 --> 03:32:10,079
levels of political effectiveness, approximate to Franco Italian levels of

3540
03:32:10,120 --> 03:32:13,479
political effectiveness, it will be necessary, assuming that our coup

3541
03:32:13,520 --> 03:32:16,399
is not politically linked with them, to identify and arrest

3542
03:32:16,440 --> 03:32:19,159
their leaders and close their headquarters in order to impede

3543
03:32:19,200 --> 03:32:23,399
the operation of their secondary leadership elsewhere. It will be

3544
03:32:23,399 --> 03:32:26,079
a matter of orienting our general measures to deal with

3545
03:32:26,120 --> 03:32:30,799
the particular threats which trade union movements could present. And

3546
03:32:30,840 --> 03:32:32,920
that is the end of chapter four.

3547
03:32:34,799 --> 03:32:40,000
Speaker 3: Five. Now well, not really, well, I'm in the middle.

3548
03:32:39,760 --> 03:32:42,239
Speaker 4: Of the Only thing is I think probably most people

3549
03:32:42,239 --> 03:32:45,079
are interested in it, probably aware of it, and then

3550
03:32:45,120 --> 03:32:48,319
they'll write in some really wonky stuff.

3551
03:32:48,479 --> 03:32:50,719
Speaker 3: It's actually getting psychedelic. I may even talk.

3552
03:32:50,600 --> 03:32:54,639
Speaker 6: About the psychedelics a little bit on my blog, so

3553
03:32:54,760 --> 03:32:56,920
like the blog is alive in case you in case

3554
03:32:56,959 --> 03:32:59,719
you follow it, go check it out with the name

3555
03:32:59,719 --> 03:33:01,440
of it Ecologica Americana.

3556
03:33:01,600 --> 03:33:04,559
Speaker 1: Yeah, I will link to it like I did the

3557
03:33:04,639 --> 03:33:08,360
last time. I appreciate it. Not meaning to rush you

3558
03:33:08,399 --> 03:33:11,639
off or anything, but I do gotta. I gotta before someone,

3559
03:33:11,840 --> 03:33:15,600
before someone closes. So thank you, Christopher. I appreciate it.

3560
03:33:15,760 --> 03:33:18,319
So the next time, yeah, no problem. Oh yeah, I'm calculating.

3561
03:33:19,200 --> 03:33:22,079
I want to welcome everyone back to part ten of

3562
03:33:22,120 --> 03:33:27,479
my reading of Kudeta by Edward Luttwach. John field House

3563
03:33:27,559 --> 03:33:28,920
is back. How you doing, John?

3564
03:33:29,600 --> 03:33:29,760
Speaker 3: Well?

3565
03:33:29,760 --> 03:33:30,440
Speaker 2: How you doing, sir?

3566
03:33:31,479 --> 03:33:36,639
Speaker 1: Doing good? Took a week off, cleared my head and yeah,

3567
03:33:36,760 --> 03:33:40,639
ready to jump back into this one chapter left long chapter.

3568
03:33:40,760 --> 03:33:44,360
I think I counted almost fifty pages, so now I'm

3569
03:33:44,440 --> 03:33:47,959
able to do it in one sitting. But that's to

3570
03:33:47,959 --> 03:33:50,680
start getting going on it, because I'm sure this is

3571
03:33:50,719 --> 03:33:54,040
the part everybody has been waiting for. The chapter five,

3572
03:33:54,120 --> 03:33:56,120
the execution of the coup.

3573
03:33:56,520 --> 03:33:58,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, before before we get into it, I was just

3574
03:33:58,920 --> 03:34:02,639
gonna say, look, Wax organization of his chapters doesn't necessarily

3575
03:34:02,639 --> 03:34:07,040
make the most sense because the strategy in preparation chapters

3576
03:34:07,079 --> 03:34:10,360
obviously overlap, and a bunch of the execution stuff he's

3577
03:34:10,399 --> 03:34:14,319
alreadys talked about, but this is short for him anyways.

3578
03:34:14,319 --> 03:34:21,520
Speaker 1: As a chapter, all right, all right, Chapter five, the

3579
03:34:21,600 --> 03:34:24,799
execution of the Kudetta. A couple quotes as soon as

3580
03:34:24,799 --> 03:34:28,559
the moral power of normal, as soon as the moral

3581
03:34:28,600 --> 03:34:33,159
power of national representation was destroyed, a legislative body, whatever

3582
03:34:33,200 --> 03:34:36,280
it may be, meant no more to the military than

3583
03:34:36,319 --> 03:34:39,719
a crowd of five hundred men, less vigorous and disciplined

3584
03:34:39,879 --> 03:34:43,920
than a battalion of the same number. Madame de Stal,

3585
03:34:44,440 --> 03:34:49,680
referring to Napoleon's coupd'etta, I came in a tank. I

3586
03:34:49,760 --> 03:34:52,159
came in on a tank, and only a tank will

3587
03:34:52,200 --> 03:34:57,239
evict me. Abu's e ear yaha? Is that to pronounce that? Yaha?

3588
03:34:58,239 --> 03:35:02,040
Speaker 2: I think it's it's pronounced yahya, which is Arabic for John.

3589
03:35:02,920 --> 03:35:09,719
Speaker 1: Okay abuz Zahir yah yah yah Iraqi, Prime Minister, nineteen

3590
03:35:10,000 --> 03:35:15,479
sixty eight. All right, Start with the text. The active

3591
03:35:15,479 --> 03:35:18,159
phase of a coup is like a military operation, only

3592
03:35:18,200 --> 03:35:21,159
more so if the general principle of tactics is the

3593
03:35:21,159 --> 03:35:24,200
application of force at the right place. The coup achieves

3594
03:35:24,280 --> 03:35:27,920
this with surgical precision by striking at the organizational heart

3595
03:35:27,959 --> 03:35:31,680
of the whole state. If speed is very often important

3596
03:35:31,680 --> 03:35:35,520
in military operations, in the coup it is an essential requirement.

3597
03:35:36,239 --> 03:35:38,959
But the coup differs from most military operations in one

3598
03:35:39,000 --> 03:35:42,600
crucial respect. While in war it is often advantageous to

3599
03:35:42,639 --> 03:35:45,319
retain some forces as reserved to be used in later

3600
03:35:45,719 --> 03:35:48,879
and possibly more critical phases of the fighting, in a coup,

3601
03:35:48,959 --> 03:35:53,559
the principle of total commitment applies. The active stage takes

3602
03:35:53,600 --> 03:35:56,920
place in one short period of time, and forces held

3603
03:35:56,959 --> 03:36:00,639
back today will be useless tomorrow. All our horses must

3604
03:36:00,680 --> 03:36:05,319
be used in our single decisive engagement. The fact that

3605
03:36:05,319 --> 03:36:07,920
the coup has practically no time dimension means that we

3606
03:36:07,959 --> 03:36:11,399
will not be able to correct significant errors made during

3607
03:36:11,440 --> 03:36:14,920
its execution. In war, tactics can be changed, weapons can

3608
03:36:14,959 --> 03:36:18,799
be replaced, plans reshaped, and soldiers retrained on the basis

3609
03:36:18,840 --> 03:36:22,760
of combat experience. In the coup, however, there will be

3610
03:36:22,799 --> 03:36:26,760
no sufficient time for any feedback mechanism to work. In

3611
03:36:26,799 --> 03:36:29,079
this the coup is similar to the most modern form

3612
03:36:29,120 --> 03:36:32,440
of warfare, the strategic missile strike, and the time factor

3613
03:36:32,479 --> 03:36:37,159
places that entire burden of decision making in the planning stage.

3614
03:36:38,760 --> 03:36:41,559
Every target must be studied in detail before the coup

3615
03:36:42,040 --> 03:36:44,920
the team assigned to seize it must match it in

3616
03:36:45,120 --> 03:36:48,959
terms of size and composition. It's every move must be

3617
03:36:49,000 --> 03:36:53,040
planned in advance, and no tactical flexibility can be allowed.

3618
03:36:55,159 --> 03:36:57,600
With this degree of detailed planning, there will be no

3619
03:36:57,719 --> 03:37:00,600
need for any sort of headquarters strung sure in the

3620
03:37:00,639 --> 03:37:03,440
active stage of the coup. If there is no scope

3621
03:37:03,479 --> 03:37:06,399
for decision making, there is no need for decision makers

3622
03:37:06,440 --> 03:37:10,040
and their apparatus. In fact, having a headquarters would be

3623
03:37:10,360 --> 03:37:13,559
a serious disadvantage. It would constitute a concrete target for

3624
03:37:13,600 --> 03:37:17,319
the opposition, one that would be both vulnerable and easily identified.

3625
03:37:18,079 --> 03:37:20,799
As soon as the coup starts, the ruling group will

3626
03:37:20,840 --> 03:37:23,799
know that something is happening, but unless coups are very

3627
03:37:23,799 --> 03:37:26,719
frequent in the country, they will not know what that

3628
03:37:26,920 --> 03:37:30,319
something is. It could be a mutiny, an insurrection, the

3629
03:37:30,360 --> 03:37:32,680
opening of a gorilla war, or even the beginning of

3630
03:37:32,719 --> 03:37:37,840
an invasion by a foreign power. Yeah, go ahead on

3631
03:37:37,840 --> 03:37:39,479
the scope, Yeah please.

3632
03:37:39,799 --> 03:37:41,760
Speaker 2: Yeah. So the big thing he's talking about, not much

3633
03:37:41,840 --> 03:37:44,319
need for a headquarters. Obviously, you're gonna have somebody in

3634
03:37:44,399 --> 03:37:47,319
charge at some level, with subordinates in charge, you know,

3635
03:37:47,360 --> 03:37:49,920
and radios and what not to coordinate them. But a

3636
03:37:49,920 --> 03:37:52,600
lot of what goes into a headquarters that you don't

3637
03:37:52,639 --> 03:37:56,639
see unless you're in one is battle tracking and management

3638
03:37:56,719 --> 03:38:00,280
type stuff. And like the American military is and is

3639
03:38:00,280 --> 03:38:03,120
one of the worst for just growing and growing its

3640
03:38:03,159 --> 03:38:06,600
headquarters to involve more managerial functions there to the point

3641
03:38:06,600 --> 03:38:10,680
that it forces every army that interacts with them to

3642
03:38:10,760 --> 03:38:13,840
basically grow their staffs to the detriment of the rest

3643
03:38:13,840 --> 03:38:18,040
of their forces. And so this chapter so far is

3644
03:38:18,040 --> 03:38:19,680
in a lot of ways, it's a lot more important

3645
03:38:19,680 --> 03:38:23,840
than even it sounds at first at first glance, because

3646
03:38:23,840 --> 03:38:28,000
it really shows how hypothetically an American style army is

3647
03:38:28,040 --> 03:38:29,879
completely unfit for this kind of an action.

3648
03:38:32,239 --> 03:38:36,239
Speaker 1: All right, all these forms of conflict represent threats of

3649
03:38:36,280 --> 03:38:38,879
the regime, but they are all different in terms of

3650
03:38:38,920 --> 03:38:42,680
their immediate significance and more important, in terms of the

3651
03:38:42,680 --> 03:38:45,879
measures required to meet them. We should avoid taking any

3652
03:38:45,920 --> 03:38:48,159
action that will clarify the nature of the threat and

3653
03:38:48,159 --> 03:38:50,879
thus reduce the confusion that is left and the defensive

3654
03:38:51,040 --> 03:38:54,639
apparatus of the regime. Our teams will emerge from their

3655
03:38:54,680 --> 03:38:58,360
bases and proceed to seize the designated targets while operating

3656
03:38:58,399 --> 03:39:02,319
as independent units. Their collective purpose and their coordination will

3657
03:39:02,360 --> 03:39:05,280
remain unknown and until it is too late for any

3658
03:39:05,360 --> 03:39:08,879
effective opposition. The leaders of the coup will be scattered

3659
03:39:08,879 --> 03:39:12,159
among the various teams, each joining the team whose ultimate

3660
03:39:12,200 --> 03:39:15,760
target requires his presence. Thus, the spokesman for the coup

3661
03:39:15,760 --> 03:39:18,559
will be with the teams that will seize the radio

3662
03:39:18,680 --> 03:39:22,399
television stations, and the perspective chief of police will be

3663
03:39:22,479 --> 03:39:25,559
with the team whose target is the police headquarters. As

3664
03:39:25,600 --> 03:39:28,559
each team will be both small and highly mobile, and

3665
03:39:28,639 --> 03:39:31,200
as there will be no functioning headquarters throughout the active

3666
03:39:31,200 --> 03:39:34,000
phase of the coup, the opposition will not have any

3667
03:39:34,040 --> 03:39:37,799
single target on which to concentrate its forces. In this way,

3668
03:39:38,079 --> 03:39:42,040
their numerical superiority will be dissipated, and the smaller forces

3669
03:39:42,040 --> 03:39:44,680
of the coup will have local superiority in the area

3670
03:39:44,719 --> 03:39:48,079
of each particular target. This will be key to the

3671
03:39:48,159 --> 03:39:49,280
victory of the coup.

3672
03:39:50,000 --> 03:39:55,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, so the big takeaway here is having a headquarters,

3673
03:39:56,639 --> 03:39:59,040
having any kind of an organization works both ways. And

3674
03:39:59,159 --> 03:40:02,360
anything that you have that is there in order to provide,

3675
03:40:02,680 --> 03:40:05,639
you know, very rigid regiment and command and control was

3676
03:40:05,680 --> 03:40:08,239
something that's also a target for the enemy to destroy,

3677
03:40:09,079 --> 03:40:12,159
no matter who that enemy is. And a long way

3678
03:40:12,159 --> 03:40:14,639
he says, it's important that you allow the enemy to

3679
03:40:14,719 --> 03:40:18,479
continue to be confused until you actually take power. It's

3680
03:40:19,280 --> 03:40:21,879
since his rule is all wars based on the deception.

3681
03:40:21,959 --> 03:40:24,239
Don't let the other guy know what you're doing until

3682
03:40:24,239 --> 03:40:25,000
you've done it.

3683
03:40:28,079 --> 03:40:31,600
Speaker 1: All right, new heading on the Eve. In chapters two

3684
03:40:31,600 --> 03:40:33,600
and three of this book, we surveyed the planning of

3685
03:40:33,639 --> 03:40:36,719
the coup in terms of neutralization of the professional defenses

3686
03:40:36,719 --> 03:40:39,120
of the state and the selection of those targets that

3687
03:40:39,159 --> 03:40:42,959
would assess the neutralization of the political forces. We analyzed

3688
03:40:42,959 --> 03:40:45,280
the structure of the armed forces and of other means

3689
03:40:45,360 --> 03:40:48,319
of coercion, and we saw that much of the armed forces,

3690
03:40:48,360 --> 03:40:50,799
a significant part of the police system, and some of

3691
03:40:50,799 --> 03:40:54,360
the security services could not intervene either for or against

3692
03:40:54,440 --> 03:40:57,399
us in the event of a coup. This was due

3693
03:40:57,440 --> 03:41:01,360
to their remote location, dispersed this deplayment, or because their

3694
03:41:01,399 --> 03:41:05,680
training and equipment was inadequate, unsuitable, and or over specialized.

3695
03:41:07,360 --> 03:41:10,239
Then we infiltrated the relatively small part of the apparatus

3696
03:41:10,239 --> 03:41:13,079
that did have an intervention capability, so that much of

3697
03:41:13,120 --> 03:41:16,559
it was technically neutralized and some of it totally subverted.

3698
03:41:18,000 --> 03:41:21,000
This will ensure for us the neutrality of much of

3699
03:41:21,040 --> 03:41:24,159
the defenses of the state and the active cooperation of

3700
03:41:24,200 --> 03:41:27,319
some of its parts. The infiltration of the army and

3701
03:41:27,360 --> 03:41:30,079
police has given us an instrument the units that we

3702
03:41:30,120 --> 03:41:34,440
have incorporated and that forms the forces of the coup. Additionally,

3703
03:41:34,479 --> 03:41:37,040
we have prepared for the utilization of this instrument by

3704
03:41:37,040 --> 03:41:39,719
selecting the targets on which it will be used. We

3705
03:41:39,799 --> 03:41:42,719
have identified the physical targets it must be seized and

3706
03:41:42,760 --> 03:41:47,719
those that will have to be sabotaged or otherwise interdicted.

3707
03:41:48,159 --> 03:41:52,399
And we have selected the leading personalities among the potential opposition,

3708
03:41:52,760 --> 03:41:55,200
both in and out of the government, and prepared for

3709
03:41:55,239 --> 03:41:59,959
their arrest. But one major task has not been covered

3710
03:42:00,200 --> 03:42:04,799
in the planning stage, the forcible isolation of the hardcore

3711
03:42:04,879 --> 03:42:09,040
loyalist forces. Hopefully, the strength of those forces we have

3712
03:42:09,079 --> 03:42:12,559
been unable to infiltrate, assuming they have an intervention capability,

3713
03:42:13,239 --> 03:42:15,600
will not be very great. But even if they are

3714
03:42:15,639 --> 03:42:19,200
weaken absolute terms, we dare not ignore them. To do

3715
03:42:19,280 --> 03:42:21,920
so would be to invalidate all the measures we have

3716
03:42:21,959 --> 03:42:25,520
taken to insulate the capital city and ourselves from the

3717
03:42:25,520 --> 03:42:30,360
intervention of hostile forces. The extreme instability of the balance

3718
03:42:30,399 --> 03:42:32,799
of forces during the active phase of the coup means

3719
03:42:32,799 --> 03:42:35,479
that what in other circumstances would only be a minor

3720
03:42:35,520 --> 03:42:39,280
threat could then have disastrous consequences. If the hard core

3721
03:42:39,760 --> 03:42:42,760
loyalist forces are large in relation to our own, we

3722
03:42:42,760 --> 03:42:46,680
will indeed have to divert a considerable amount of our

3723
03:42:46,719 --> 03:42:51,760
forces to their isolation. Though we have been unable to

3724
03:42:51,799 --> 03:42:56,239
penetrate these hardcore loyalist forces, two things will probably have

3725
03:42:56,280 --> 03:43:01,239
to be achieved. One, their number, quality, and location will

3726
03:43:01,280 --> 03:43:04,639
be known to us, and two, our general measures of

3727
03:43:04,719 --> 03:43:10,719
neutralization will have reduced their overall effectiveness. Their fighting capability

3728
03:43:10,760 --> 03:43:13,639
will not have been eroded, but as Table five to

3729
03:43:13,639 --> 03:43:18,319
one illustrates, their intervention against us will be delayed and disrupted.

3730
03:43:20,120 --> 03:43:23,760
Table one is the mechanics of intervention of the Loyalist forces.

3731
03:43:24,559 --> 03:43:27,120
Some of this I believe some of this was covered

3732
03:43:27,120 --> 03:43:30,200
in chapter two and three, if I'm not mistaken.

3733
03:43:29,799 --> 03:43:33,120
Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, most of his charts, it's just it doesn't

3734
03:43:33,159 --> 03:43:36,040
make sense to read them out aloud in a format

3735
03:43:36,159 --> 03:43:40,120
like but and again it's imperfect. But he's a lot.

3736
03:43:40,280 --> 03:43:43,159
He's the chess game, the move and counter move of

3737
03:43:43,239 --> 03:43:45,959
things that you'll have to deal with. And again, since

3738
03:43:45,959 --> 03:43:50,840
we're talking about one internal military loyalist generally means any

3739
03:43:50,879 --> 03:43:54,760
person you haven't infiltrated, So that's the big issue. It's

3740
03:43:54,799 --> 03:43:57,040
like all the techniques we've used in the past and

3741
03:43:57,079 --> 03:43:59,920
neutralized forces don't work because we weren't able to get

3742
03:44:00,040 --> 03:44:08,159
in the position to neutralize them.

3743
03:44:04,799 --> 03:44:08,360
Speaker 1: All right, Reading on, our purpose is not to destroy

3744
03:44:08,399 --> 03:44:11,559
the loyalist forces militarily. We can deal with their cadres

3745
03:44:11,559 --> 03:44:15,120
administratively after the coup, but merely to immobilize them for

3746
03:44:15,159 --> 03:44:18,639
a few crucial hours. The tactics that will be used

3747
03:44:18,719 --> 03:44:22,600
must be exclusively defensive, a ring of blocking positions around

3748
03:44:22,639 --> 03:44:26,639
each concentration of loyalist forces, or, if this is not possible,

3749
03:44:26,959 --> 03:44:30,360
a similar ring around the capital city. Thus, though we

3750
03:44:30,440 --> 03:44:34,200
will be on the strategic offensive in the sense that

3751
03:44:34,239 --> 03:44:36,520
we are the ones who want to change the situation

3752
03:44:36,639 --> 03:44:39,879
in general, we will also be on the tactical defensive,

3753
03:44:40,000 --> 03:44:43,600
and this will give us important technical and psychological advantages.

3754
03:44:44,760 --> 03:44:48,600
By using defended roadblocks to isolate the loyalist forces, we

3755
03:44:48,639 --> 03:44:51,920
will put the onus of initiating any fighting on them.

3756
03:44:52,200 --> 03:44:54,719
Our forces will be content to wait, and it will

3757
03:44:54,719 --> 03:44:57,280
be the loyalist forces that will try to pass through.

3758
03:44:58,360 --> 03:45:02,120
Should a column of loyalist forces at the roadblock, their

3759
03:45:02,200 --> 03:45:04,959
leaders will be faced by opposition numbers wearing the same

3760
03:45:05,040 --> 03:45:08,520
uniform and belonging to the same armed force, perhaps even

3761
03:45:08,559 --> 03:45:11,959
to the same regiment. Both sides will state that they

3762
03:45:11,959 --> 03:45:15,680
are obeying orders. But interestingly enough, the orders of the

3763
03:45:15,760 --> 03:45:19,360
leaders of our forces will probably appear more legitimate than

3764
03:45:19,399 --> 03:45:22,959
those of the leaders of the loyalist troops, owing to

3765
03:45:23,000 --> 03:45:27,399
our arrests and our interdiction of the physical facilities. The

3766
03:45:27,520 --> 03:45:31,680
legitimate orders will probably have taken an unusual form. The

3767
03:45:31,719 --> 03:45:33,959
source of the orders to the loyalist troops will probably

3768
03:45:34,000 --> 03:45:36,959
be somebody other than the appropriate superior in their high

3769
03:45:37,079 --> 03:45:41,479
in the hierarchy, The method used to convey them will

3770
03:45:41,520 --> 03:45:46,200
probably be an unusual emergency one, and the actual orders

3771
03:45:46,559 --> 03:45:49,760
will likely be indistinguishable in form from ones that might

3772
03:45:49,799 --> 03:45:52,200
have been issued by the planners of a coup.

3773
03:45:52,959 --> 03:45:56,360
Speaker 2: There's a lot here too that's really intelligent. But as

3774
03:45:56,360 --> 03:45:59,319
he said, if part of our goal of infiltration is

3775
03:46:00,040 --> 03:46:03,920
taking charge of whoever issues the orders in whatever the

3776
03:46:03,959 --> 03:46:07,479
official procedural way is to these different units, if we

3777
03:46:07,520 --> 03:46:10,000
can take possession of that, take control of that office,

3778
03:46:10,040 --> 03:46:13,159
you know they're not going to have anything that looks

3779
03:46:13,200 --> 03:46:15,319
like a proper word or where the guys are actually

3780
03:46:15,360 --> 03:46:18,440
attempting the coup will have those And as he said,

3781
03:46:18,840 --> 03:46:21,760
it's going to be people exercising initiative on their own

3782
03:46:22,479 --> 03:46:25,959
to stop the coup. And depending where you are, lots

3783
03:46:25,959 --> 03:46:30,600
of armies don't exactly work around or develop initiative intentionally

3784
03:46:30,600 --> 03:46:35,239
in their leadership. You know, there's a reason why coops

3785
03:46:35,680 --> 03:46:38,719
frequently work, you know, so smoothly in the Third World,

3786
03:46:38,879 --> 03:46:41,840
whereas when it was intended and are attempted in the

3787
03:46:41,840 --> 03:46:44,159
Third Reich, the SS was able to break it in

3788
03:46:44,200 --> 03:46:47,159
a few hours, partly because they were trained for initiative

3789
03:46:47,200 --> 03:46:49,440
and things like that. And to his other point about

3790
03:46:49,479 --> 03:46:53,239
using roadblocks to block loyalist forces, the easiest way to

3791
03:46:53,280 --> 03:46:56,040
have a roadblock in place is to make it not

3792
03:46:56,079 --> 03:46:59,680
look like a roadblock. Everybody understands what construction is. Most

3793
03:46:59,680 --> 03:47:03,280
people want to avoid construction. So there are lots of

3794
03:47:03,319 --> 03:47:05,920
ways to control an intersection without making it look like

3795
03:47:05,959 --> 03:47:09,079
you're intentionally controlling an intersection. And if you can delay

3796
03:47:09,120 --> 03:47:12,040
troops for those couple crucial hours, it has the same

3797
03:47:12,079 --> 03:47:12,840
effect either way.

3798
03:47:16,040 --> 03:47:19,000
Speaker 1: Thus, the officers of the loyalist forces may have received

3799
03:47:19,120 --> 03:47:22,159
orders stating move into the city center, hold the parliament

3800
03:47:22,159 --> 03:47:25,840
building and the radio station. The leadership may have added

3801
03:47:25,879 --> 03:47:28,719
that they would be acting against the forces of a coup,

3802
03:47:28,879 --> 03:47:33,440
but even so such orders would have insurrectional undertones. When

3803
03:47:33,559 --> 03:47:36,959
army officers find themselves doing unusual things, their natural reaction

3804
03:47:37,079 --> 03:47:40,120
is to try and fit them into familiar patterns. The

3805
03:47:40,159 --> 03:47:42,639
most familiar pattern of all will be to arrive at

3806
03:47:42,639 --> 03:47:46,559
the conclusion that the politicians are guilty of yet another mess.

3807
03:47:47,520 --> 03:47:50,000
The most probable course of action will be to request

3808
03:47:50,040 --> 03:47:53,440
clarification from their superior officers. It is to be hoped

3809
03:47:53,440 --> 03:47:56,840
that these officers will have decided to remain neutral, or

3810
03:47:56,879 --> 03:48:00,280
else have been or else have been arrested. In either case,

3811
03:48:00,319 --> 03:48:05,200
the clarification will never arrive. If, on the other hand,

3812
03:48:05,239 --> 03:48:08,159
the loyalist units decide to force the roadblock, we will

3813
03:48:08,200 --> 03:48:12,399
benefit from the tactical advantages of the defensive. These include

3814
03:48:12,399 --> 03:48:15,799
the opportunity of choosing the place natural obstructions such as

3815
03:48:15,840 --> 03:48:19,040
bridges and tunnels, and the opportunity of deploying and camouflaging

3816
03:48:19,079 --> 03:48:22,079
weapons and men. In order to make the fullest use

3817
03:48:22,120 --> 03:48:25,440
of both the psychological and the tactical advantages, the blocking

3818
03:48:25,479 --> 03:48:29,360
position should have a dual structure. A larger symbolic first

3819
03:48:29,399 --> 03:48:33,520
line composed of some suitable physical obstacle, such as cross

3820
03:48:33,600 --> 03:48:36,840
parked heavy vehicles, with a few men bearing orders to

3821
03:48:36,879 --> 03:48:40,200
forbid all passage. Beyond this, there will be a second

3822
03:48:40,200 --> 03:48:44,200
military line, much stronger numerically, with weapons and men deployed

3823
03:48:44,239 --> 03:48:49,360
to repel an eventual assault. The operational detail involved it

3824
03:48:49,399 --> 03:48:53,840
is discussed in Appendix B. The idea is not to

3825
03:48:53,920 --> 03:48:57,319
ambush the loyalist to inflict maximum damage. On the contrary,

3826
03:48:57,360 --> 03:48:59,959
the defenders of the blocking position should inform the income

3827
03:49:00,559 --> 03:49:02,879
loyalist forces that there is such a second line of

3828
03:49:02,879 --> 03:49:05,959
defense in order to deter them. Because the strength of

3829
03:49:05,959 --> 03:49:09,559
a camouflaged force is hard to assess, it can serve

3830
03:49:09,600 --> 03:49:13,280
as a deterrent even if it's numerically weak as compared

3831
03:49:13,319 --> 03:49:14,159
to the opposition.

3832
03:49:15,280 --> 03:49:18,040
Speaker 2: It's got to be restressed so many times that the

3833
03:49:18,079 --> 03:49:20,479
goal is not to fight people from your own country.

3834
03:49:20,959 --> 03:49:23,159
The goal is to get their compliance for those few

3835
03:49:23,200 --> 03:49:24,959
hours without hurting anybody.

3836
03:49:28,360 --> 03:49:31,879
Speaker 1: The situation of each blocking station will require delicate handling,

3837
03:49:32,120 --> 03:49:34,280
and it will be necessary that the soldiers on our

3838
03:49:34,360 --> 03:49:37,959
side understand that their primary function is to avoid combat

3839
03:49:38,079 --> 03:49:41,799
rather than to engage in it successfully. In concrete terms,

3840
03:49:41,840 --> 03:49:44,440
their mission will be a delaying of operation rather than

3841
03:49:44,479 --> 03:49:48,719
a decisive one, and this will have precise implications in

3842
03:49:48,840 --> 03:49:51,319
terms of the weapons and tactics to be employed.

3843
03:49:52,319 --> 03:49:52,799
Speaker 3: Is that.

3844
03:49:55,040 --> 03:49:58,799
Speaker 1: So it seems like if you would have if there

3845
03:49:58,840 --> 03:50:06,479
would be inflection ofviolence upon fellows citizens, if you're if

3846
03:50:06,520 --> 03:50:09,879
you're teaming up, if you're conspiring with the forces that

3847
03:50:09,959 --> 03:50:14,360
may be outside outside the country, like even like say

3848
03:50:14,399 --> 03:50:20,520
a A PMC. Yeah, that they would probably be ones

3849
03:50:20,520 --> 03:50:24,639
that you would have to worry about inflecting violence upon

3850
03:50:24,719 --> 03:50:29,000
your your fellow your fellow people. You have to have

3851
03:50:29,000 --> 03:50:30,639
a talk with them first, right.

3852
03:50:30,559 --> 03:50:33,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, and again that's part of the issue we

3853
03:50:33,760 --> 03:50:37,200
talked about in the planning stage is it's you're engaged

3854
03:50:37,239 --> 03:50:39,360
in a legal action, so it's really hard to prepare

3855
03:50:39,719 --> 03:50:42,000
and to do the necessary training beforehand like you would

3856
03:50:42,000 --> 03:50:45,239
for any other military operation. But we want to attempt

3857
03:50:45,239 --> 03:50:48,200
to do that to the degree we could. So yeah,

3858
03:50:48,239 --> 03:50:53,239
outside forces, Yeah, and again outside forces carry the obvious

3859
03:50:53,360 --> 03:50:56,479
risk that everybody around, to include random civilians knows, hey,

3860
03:50:56,559 --> 03:50:59,680
that's not our country there, so it looks like an invasion.

3861
03:50:59,799 --> 03:51:02,719
So as you know, lots of issues. If you do

3862
03:51:02,799 --> 03:51:06,479
you get to use them, which is why like when

3863
03:51:06,680 --> 03:51:10,479
the Soviets deposed the communist regime in Afghanistan. Before invading,

3864
03:51:11,000 --> 03:51:14,319
they had Specinos troops mostly most of them were ethnic

3865
03:51:14,719 --> 03:51:18,959
Central Asians, you know, tadjiks and newsbacks and whatnot, wearing

3866
03:51:19,000 --> 03:51:21,200
the local uniform so that they didn't look like a

3867
03:51:21,239 --> 03:51:26,520
foreign country hypothetically, something like that. Generally, the kind of

3868
03:51:26,559 --> 03:51:28,760
troops that you would send in that situation are probably

3869
03:51:28,760 --> 03:51:32,200
going to be better trained, better disciplined. But again, the

3870
03:51:32,239 --> 03:51:34,719
coordination is always an issue. If you don't coordinate, that's

3871
03:51:34,719 --> 03:51:36,639
how you get fratricide in the battlefield. That's how you

3872
03:51:36,680 --> 03:51:38,440
get fratricide in something like this.

3873
03:51:40,079 --> 03:51:46,040
Speaker 1: Okay, new heading, Timing, sequence and security. Ideally, the timing

3874
03:51:46,040 --> 03:51:48,200
of the coup will be completely flexible so that we

3875
03:51:48,200 --> 03:51:51,520
can take advantage of any favorable circumstances that may arise.

3876
03:51:51,920 --> 03:51:54,639
The temporary absence of the leadership from the capital city,

3877
03:51:54,680 --> 03:51:58,479
for instance, or the outbreak of some coincidental civil disorders.

3878
03:51:59,399 --> 03:52:03,799
This flexibility, which would be highly desirable, is only rarely possible, however,

3879
03:52:04,159 --> 03:52:07,239
because the infiltration of the army and police will be

3880
03:52:07,280 --> 03:52:11,159
a dynamically unstable process. The circle of those who have

3881
03:52:11,280 --> 03:52:14,639
decided to join us will grow and continue growing as

3882
03:52:14,680 --> 03:52:18,719
a bandwagon as a bandwagon effect is generated. But unless

3883
03:52:18,760 --> 03:52:21,719
the coup materializes, there will eventually be a movement into

3884
03:52:21,799 --> 03:52:23,520
neutrality or even opposition.

3885
03:52:27,239 --> 03:52:30,399
Speaker 2: I notice that Biden decided to quote. He decided to

3886
03:52:30,440 --> 03:52:34,280
quote to cancel his presidential campaign. What was it during

3887
03:52:34,280 --> 03:52:37,879
the weekend where most of his primary staff was out,

3888
03:52:37,920 --> 03:52:40,879
and then you know, loyalist than the DNC were around

3889
03:52:40,959 --> 03:52:44,200
in order to make the decision for him. So it

3890
03:52:44,239 --> 03:52:47,000
wasn't necessarily a real coup in the proper sense, but man,

3891
03:52:47,079 --> 03:52:48,520
it looks an awful lot like the one.

3892
03:52:51,479 --> 03:52:55,280
Speaker 1: Meanwhile, the danger of denunciation will also increase as more

3893
03:52:55,319 --> 03:52:57,959
and more people become aware that a coup is being planned,

3894
03:52:58,200 --> 03:53:01,200
or at any rate, that something is up. The timing

3895
03:53:01,239 --> 03:53:04,239
of the coup will therefore be dictated by the progress

3896
03:53:04,239 --> 03:53:07,239
of our infiltration of the armed forces and police. As

3897
03:53:07,239 --> 03:53:10,120
soon as the satisfactory degree of penetration is achieved, the

3898
03:53:10,159 --> 03:53:14,360
coup must be executed. This implies that it will not

3899
03:53:14,479 --> 03:53:17,120
be possible to designate a date while in advance of

3900
03:53:17,159 --> 03:53:19,639
the coup that can be communicated to the various teams.

3901
03:53:20,360 --> 03:53:22,520
This is just as well, because it means that the

3902
03:53:22,600 --> 03:53:25,920
date cannot be leaked to the security agencies. Actually, it

3903
03:53:25,959 --> 03:53:30,360
is quite likely that some information about us will have

3904
03:53:31,159 --> 03:53:34,399
reached to security agencies, but this should not affect the outcome.

3905
03:53:34,719 --> 03:53:37,559
As the preparations for the coup proceed, more and more

3906
03:53:37,600 --> 03:53:41,799
truthful information about our actions will be in circulation, but

3907
03:53:41,879 --> 03:53:49,399
it will be increasingly obscured by noise. Another operational sequence

3908
03:53:49,399 --> 03:53:53,760
in timing flow chart that there's no way I could

3909
03:53:53,840 --> 03:53:55,280
possibly describe.

3910
03:53:54,799 --> 03:53:58,079
Speaker 2: It looks like a business process flow chart.

3911
03:53:58,319 --> 03:54:03,120
Speaker 1: So yeah, yeah, every move we make will generate information

3912
03:54:03,239 --> 03:54:07,399
that could equally reach the security agencies. Eventually reach to

3913
03:54:07,479 --> 03:54:11,200
security agencies, but the consequences of misinterpretations of our actions

3914
03:54:11,479 --> 03:54:14,799
will generate an equal or greater amount of noise. This

3915
03:54:14,879 --> 03:54:17,440
will make it increasingly difficult for the analysts of the

3916
03:54:17,440 --> 03:54:20,200
security agencies to identify the nature of the threat because

3917
03:54:20,200 --> 03:54:26,200
their capacity for processing information is not unlimited. This process

3918
03:54:26,239 --> 03:54:29,680
is illustrated in Fig. Five to two, in which O

3919
03:54:30,000 --> 03:54:33,760
to Z is the normal level of noise received at

3920
03:54:33,799 --> 03:54:39,399
all times to A or says zero to A is

3921
03:54:39,440 --> 03:54:45,360
the processing capability What do you think, I don't know, Yeah,

3922
03:54:46,000 --> 03:54:49,600
received at all times. I'm going to say zero. Zero

3923
03:54:49,680 --> 03:54:53,000
to A is the processing capacity of the analysts at

3924
03:54:53,040 --> 03:54:57,200
the security agencies, and X is the point beyond which

3925
03:54:57,280 --> 03:55:02,680
the total flow of data exceeds processing capacity, so that

3926
03:55:02,799 --> 03:55:06,559
each item of real data is accorded a diminishing amount

3927
03:55:06,760 --> 03:55:12,079
of attention. And then we have a graph that people

3928
03:55:12,159 --> 03:55:14,680
can they buy the book, they can and they listen

3929
03:55:14,760 --> 03:55:16,879
along check it out for themselves.

3930
03:55:17,159 --> 03:55:20,000
Speaker 2: Yeah. Bottom line is anytime you communicate at any level

3931
03:55:21,200 --> 03:55:23,719
from the perspective of the enemy, the guys listening again

3932
03:55:23,760 --> 03:55:27,799
and intercepting intelligence, you know, the question that you have

3933
03:55:28,120 --> 03:55:31,520
hard information, then you have the noise that surround you know,

3934
03:55:31,559 --> 03:55:34,079
which may or may not be true, which is you know,

3935
03:55:34,399 --> 03:55:38,200
rumors and everything else. It's like the best example of

3936
03:55:38,200 --> 03:55:40,360
that would be like pre nine to eleven, when you

3937
03:55:40,360 --> 03:55:43,799
know multiple agencies, the FBI and CIA knew about the

3938
03:55:43,879 --> 03:55:48,520
guys training at training to become airline pilots who didn't

3939
03:55:48,520 --> 03:55:51,280
want to land, which is an important data point. Unfortunately,

3940
03:55:51,319 --> 03:55:55,440
it's drowned out with every other you know, possible threat.

3941
03:55:55,920 --> 03:55:59,000
You know a lot of them domestic or at least

3942
03:55:59,079 --> 03:56:03,040
allegedly domestic threats that they're more focused on. So that's

3943
03:56:03,120 --> 03:56:06,479
always the issue, right is intelligence has a limited ability

3944
03:56:06,559 --> 03:56:09,559
to predict to what's happening based upon what they've intercepted,

3945
03:56:09,559 --> 03:56:11,760
because they're just going through so much shit.

3946
03:56:15,479 --> 03:56:18,280
Speaker 1: Even if the security agencies could isolate the real data

3947
03:56:18,319 --> 03:56:21,239
from the noise, they will not usually take immediate action.

3948
03:56:21,760 --> 03:56:24,360
Their professional instinct will be to try to uncover all

3949
03:56:24,360 --> 03:56:26,559
the ramifications of the plot so as to be able

3950
03:56:26,639 --> 03:56:29,600
to arrest all its participants. And it may be hoped

3951
03:56:29,639 --> 03:56:32,479
that the coup will be executed while the security agencies

3952
03:56:32,479 --> 03:56:36,040
are still engaged in their investigations. But their people will

3953
03:56:36,079 --> 03:56:38,840
be aware of this timing problem and therefore are quite

3954
03:56:38,920 --> 03:56:41,479
likely to respond to a possible threat by going ahead

3955
03:56:41,479 --> 03:56:44,319
to arrest those of the planners of the coup that

3956
03:56:44,399 --> 03:56:48,719
have been identified that they have identified. This nervousness presents

3957
03:56:48,760 --> 03:56:51,079
a special problem. On the eve of the coup, our

3958
03:56:51,120 --> 03:56:54,559
final preparations will probably generate a sharp increase in the

3959
03:56:54,600 --> 03:56:59,000
total flow of signals received by the security agencies, even

3960
03:56:59,040 --> 03:57:02,200
without separating them from noise. The mere increase in the

3961
03:57:02,239 --> 03:57:05,520
total flow of information could be interpreted as a danger signal,

3962
03:57:05,600 --> 03:57:09,120
as it certainly would be by competent and analysts, and

3963
03:57:09,159 --> 03:57:11,040
this might trigger the arrests.

3964
03:57:13,079 --> 03:57:16,040
Speaker 2: In practice, no I was gonna say, that's always the issue,

3965
03:57:16,040 --> 03:57:19,040
and It's one of those things. In hindsight, it's always

3966
03:57:19,040 --> 03:57:21,200
twenty twenty that you had a huge spike and noise

3967
03:57:21,239 --> 03:57:24,719
before a major event. I know people doing open source

3968
03:57:24,799 --> 03:57:29,479
intelligence analysis. All of them said that they had so

3969
03:57:29,639 --> 03:57:34,120
much increased activity, like right before the October attacks in Israel.

3970
03:57:34,319 --> 03:57:37,040
But knowing that something was going to happen is not

3971
03:57:37,079 --> 03:57:38,920
the same thing as knowing what was going to happen

3972
03:57:39,079 --> 03:57:43,799
when and wire, So that's always the game of cat

3973
03:57:43,840 --> 03:57:45,360
and mouse between the two sides.

3974
03:57:47,920 --> 03:57:50,639
Speaker 1: In practice, it will rarely be possible to achieve total

3975
03:57:50,680 --> 03:57:53,159
security within all the forces of the coup, and we

3976
03:57:53,200 --> 03:57:56,200
should assume as a working hypothesis that they have in

3977
03:57:56,200 --> 03:57:59,639
fact been infiltrated by the security agency. This leads to

3978
03:57:59,639 --> 03:58:03,200
the general defensive procedures discussed in chapter three, but it

3979
03:58:03,239 --> 03:58:08,719
will also have precise operational implications. A. Each team will

3980
03:58:08,719 --> 03:58:11,239
be told well in advance what equipment and tactics will

3981
03:58:11,280 --> 03:58:14,120
be required to seize its particular target, but not the

3982
03:58:14,200 --> 03:58:18,600
exact designation of the target. B. Each team will only

3983
03:58:18,639 --> 03:58:21,399
be told this designated target when it actually receives the

3984
03:58:21,440 --> 03:58:25,879
signal to proceed to its seizure. C. Each team will

3985
03:58:25,879 --> 03:58:29,920
be alerted individually, which only as much with only as

3986
03:58:29,959 --> 03:58:32,399
much advanced warning as it requires to prepare for its

3987
03:58:32,440 --> 03:58:36,959
particular task, instead of a general ghost signal for all teams,

3988
03:58:39,120 --> 03:58:41,680
because the teams will have different starting points and different

3989
03:58:41,719 --> 03:58:44,840
targets to go to, the use of any one general

3990
03:58:44,920 --> 03:58:48,639
signal would either give insufficient warning to some teams or

3991
03:58:48,680 --> 03:58:52,120
an unnecessarily long one to others. The longer the time

3992
03:58:52,120 --> 03:58:54,639
between the announcement that the coup is on and its

3993
03:58:54,639 --> 03:58:58,559
actual execution, the greater likelihood that information will reach to

3994
03:58:58,639 --> 03:59:02,559
security agencies in time to prevent the successful execution of

3995
03:59:02,600 --> 03:59:05,200
the coup, because this will be the moment at which

3996
03:59:05,239 --> 03:59:09,879
their operatives and our ranks could send out warnings. Yeah.

3997
03:59:09,959 --> 03:59:13,840
Speaker 2: The most important takeaway from this is operational security is

3998
03:59:14,879 --> 03:59:18,719
important to everything, and the biggest reason why you limit

3999
03:59:19,840 --> 03:59:22,239
knowledge on a battlefield based to need to know is

4000
03:59:22,760 --> 03:59:26,000
nobody can know torture you for information you don't have.

4001
03:59:28,040 --> 03:59:33,479
Speaker 1: Okay, that makes sense. The problem of warning time and

4002
03:59:33,559 --> 03:59:36,319
lead time is illustrated to figure five point five to three.

4003
03:59:37,280 --> 03:59:39,360
If we give all our teams a ten hour warning

4004
03:59:39,360 --> 03:59:42,000
period by sending out a general call at hour ten,

4005
03:59:42,440 --> 03:59:46,399
then team number one will just about reachss target in time,

4006
03:59:46,799 --> 03:59:49,879
but all the other teams will have received excess warning.

4007
03:59:50,200 --> 03:59:53,200
In other words, information will have been distributed before it

4008
03:59:53,239 --> 03:59:56,159
was essential to do so. If we give all the

4009
03:59:56,159 --> 03:59:59,719
teams a two hour warning period, then excess warning will

4010
03:59:59,760 --> 04:00:02,520
be zero. But Team number five will reach its target

4011
04:00:02,639 --> 04:00:05,680
several hours before team number one, and those defending it

4012
04:00:05,719 --> 04:00:09,120
will probably be on a full alert. The solution appears

4013
04:00:09,120 --> 04:00:11,520
to be a simple one. Make warning time equal to

4014
04:00:11,639 --> 04:00:14,239
lead time, so that each team is alerted just in

4015
04:00:14,319 --> 04:00:16,760
time to allow it to reach its target by the

4016
04:00:16,879 --> 04:00:17,440
zero hour.

4017
04:00:18,120 --> 04:00:22,760
Speaker 2: This is probably the most important, most important specific requirement

4018
04:00:22,879 --> 04:00:24,200
in a hypothetical coup.

4019
04:00:27,639 --> 04:00:31,040
Speaker 1: In reality, the problem is more complex. It is not

4020
04:00:31,120 --> 04:00:34,000
a matter of simultaneous arrival at the target, but rather

4021
04:00:34,040 --> 04:00:38,760
of the simultaneous penetration of the early warning system maintained

4022
04:00:38,799 --> 04:00:42,280
by the security agencies of the state. If, for example,

4023
04:00:42,319 --> 04:00:45,040
team number two has to cross the entire capital city

4024
04:00:45,040 --> 04:00:47,920
to reach its target, the security agency will probably be

4025
04:00:47,959 --> 04:00:50,719
alerted as soon as it enters a city, at say

4026
04:00:51,239 --> 04:00:55,159
hour two. Thus, by the time team number four reached

4027
04:00:55,159 --> 04:00:57,680
its target, the opposition would have had two hours to

4028
04:00:57,719 --> 04:01:01,120
prepare for its defense. May have had We may have

4029
04:01:01,239 --> 04:01:04,600
very little information on the functioning of the security apparatus,

4030
04:01:04,760 --> 04:01:07,319
but we can operate on the assumption that a team,

4031
04:01:07,719 --> 04:01:10,639
if it is large and or equivalent armor, will be

4032
04:01:10,760 --> 04:01:14,520
noticed and reported as soon as it enters the capital city.

4033
04:01:14,760 --> 04:01:18,719
We must therefore ensure a the protection of our security

4034
04:01:18,719 --> 04:01:22,239
position against an internal threat, which is achieved by minimizing

4035
04:01:22,319 --> 04:01:26,319
excess warning time, and b the protection of our security

4036
04:01:26,399 --> 04:01:31,000
position against external observation, which is achieved by simultaneous penetration

4037
04:01:31,159 --> 04:01:36,200
of the capital city area. Both aims will be achieved

4038
04:01:36,239 --> 04:01:38,799
by sending the teams into action at a time corresponding

4039
04:01:38,799 --> 04:01:42,440
to their lead times to the capital city boundary or

4040
04:01:42,879 --> 04:01:48,200
other applicable perimeter. This is illustrated in figure five to four.

4041
04:01:49,520 --> 04:01:52,200
Speaker 2: This whole issue with lead times does become one of

4042
04:01:52,239 --> 04:01:55,239
the most challenging thing because, as he said hypothetically or

4043
04:01:55,239 --> 04:01:59,280
he said specifically, you don't want to have a headquarters. Unfortunately,

4044
04:01:59,639 --> 04:02:04,600
adapt and then issuing issuing orders based upon the appropriate

4045
04:02:04,680 --> 04:02:07,719
lead lead time is exactly the kind of thing that

4046
04:02:07,799 --> 04:02:11,079
you need a headquarters to do. So it becomes sort

4047
04:02:11,079 --> 04:02:13,479
of a command and controlled challenge that I don't think

4048
04:02:13,520 --> 04:02:16,520
he really solved, but I think he explains, you know,

4049
04:02:17,040 --> 04:02:19,239
absolutely perfectly.

4050
04:02:22,760 --> 04:02:27,520
Speaker 1: New heading into action. The actual execution of the coup

4051
04:02:27,600 --> 04:02:32,120
will require many different qualities. Skillful off the cuff diplomacy

4052
04:02:32,159 --> 04:02:36,319
at a blocking station confronted by loyalist forces, instant personnel

4053
04:02:36,360 --> 04:02:39,520
management at radio and television stations to persuade their technical

4054
04:02:39,520 --> 04:02:43,879
staff to cooperate with us, and considerable tactical abilities. In

4055
04:02:43,920 --> 04:02:47,680
the case of targets that are heavily defended, our resources

4056
04:02:47,719 --> 04:02:51,319
will probably be too limited to form fully specialized teams

4057
04:02:51,360 --> 04:02:53,680
out of the pool of those units and individuals that

4058
04:02:53,719 --> 04:02:58,159
we have incorporated, but we should nevertheless match broad categories

4059
04:02:58,200 --> 04:03:02,239
of targets with appropriate teams. We can distinguish between three

4060
04:03:02,280 --> 04:03:08,680
such categories of targets and their corresponding teams new heading

4061
04:03:08,920 --> 04:03:12,600
a targets. These are the more heavily protected facilities with

4062
04:03:12,719 --> 04:03:15,799
armed guards and strict access pass control, such as the

4063
04:03:15,879 --> 04:03:18,639
royal or presidential palace, the central police station, and the

4064
04:03:18,760 --> 04:03:23,399
Army HQ. In times of crisis, of course, such facilities

4065
04:03:23,840 --> 04:03:26,760
may be provided with full fledged military defenses, and in

4066
04:03:26,840 --> 04:03:32,040
many countries the crisis is permanent, partly in order to

4067
04:03:32,079 --> 04:03:37,319
minimize bloodshed, which could have a destabilizing effect on the situation,

4068
04:03:37,559 --> 04:03:40,360
and partly in order to reduce the total manpower required,

4069
04:03:40,639 --> 04:03:43,399
these targets will have to be seized by sophisticated teams

4070
04:03:43,520 --> 04:03:47,000
using various blends of infiltration, diversion, and assault.

4071
04:03:47,799 --> 04:03:52,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, so obviously something like the Pentagon is not really feasible, right,

4072
04:03:52,760 --> 04:03:56,559
You would probably need at least a battalion to take it,

4073
04:03:56,959 --> 04:03:58,959
and the fact that we have such a weird patchwork

4074
04:03:59,040 --> 04:04:02,639
system for law enforce makes it even harder. For the

4075
04:04:02,680 --> 04:04:07,200
sake of comparison, Iraq during the occupation the mod building

4076
04:04:07,280 --> 04:04:11,440
and they building Mod's mystery defense, it's the regular mois

4077
04:04:11,520 --> 04:04:14,239
police and John de Marie and whatnot. Each of those

4078
04:04:14,399 --> 04:04:16,680
probably had at least a company worth the troops there.

4079
04:04:17,120 --> 04:04:19,399
But on top of that all the military and police

4080
04:04:19,399 --> 04:04:22,559
personnel and both those buildings carry their side arm So

4081
04:04:24,200 --> 04:04:26,680
again it worked both ways, where basically it was impossible

4082
04:04:26,719 --> 04:04:30,120
to storm the building without major bloodshed since literally every

4083
04:04:30,120 --> 04:04:32,600
person there was armed with a weapon that they could

4084
04:04:32,639 --> 04:04:36,440
steer it theoretically use at the same time. Every so often,

4085
04:04:36,559 --> 04:04:38,559
you know, there would be a disturbance in something loud

4086
04:04:38,559 --> 04:04:40,840
that sounded like a gunshot would go off and people

4087
04:04:40,879 --> 04:04:43,360
would start shooting each other in the halls of the

4088
04:04:43,360 --> 04:04:47,760
Iraqi Pentagon, Iraqi National Police Headquarters which this isn't so

4089
04:04:47,840 --> 04:04:51,079
much relevant to this discussion as an explanation of what

4090
04:04:51,120 --> 04:04:52,440
this looks like in real life.

4091
04:04:55,760 --> 04:04:58,600
Speaker 1: That will usually be necessary to prepare for a fairly

4092
04:04:58,639 --> 04:05:02,440
extensive military operation, and a complex one as well. Unless

4093
04:05:02,440 --> 04:05:05,079
we have great numerical superiority in the area of the target,

4094
04:05:05,719 --> 04:05:08,920
this should not result in much actual combat. When those

4095
04:05:08,959 --> 04:05:11,319
who guard the target in question are confronted by our

4096
04:05:11,360 --> 04:05:14,440
extensive preparations, they are unlikely to put up much for

4097
04:05:14,520 --> 04:05:18,760
serious resistance. The fact that our general measures of neutralization

4098
04:05:18,920 --> 04:05:22,159
have cut off or impeded their contacts with the leadership,

4099
04:05:22,360 --> 04:05:25,319
the fact that the clear patriotic issues of international warfare

4100
04:05:25,360 --> 04:05:28,200
will be missing in an internal conflict, and the fact

4101
04:05:28,280 --> 04:05:31,040
that we will make every effort to allow them to

4102
04:05:31,040 --> 04:05:34,920
give in gracefully by simply leaving or giving up their weapons.

4103
04:05:35,200 --> 04:05:39,040
We will all militate against a prolonged defense.

4104
04:05:39,879 --> 04:05:42,280
Speaker 2: That's part of why a lot of these fairly soft targets.

4105
04:05:42,280 --> 04:05:46,399
You want to arrive overwhelming force. It's not to defeat everybody, well,

4106
04:05:46,639 --> 04:05:48,600
it is defeatd but not to do it by fighting.

4107
04:05:48,879 --> 04:05:51,520
The goal is to make it so they understand that

4108
04:05:51,559 --> 04:05:54,959
there is no benefit to fighting, so that they comply

4109
04:05:55,120 --> 04:05:56,440
or surrender quickly.

4110
04:05:59,000 --> 04:06:01,200
Speaker 1: If we are fortunate enough to have incorporated a very

4111
04:06:01,280 --> 04:06:03,799
large number of troops, and especially if they are equipped

4112
04:06:03,840 --> 04:06:07,799
with impressive weapons such as armored vehicles, it will be

4113
04:06:07,840 --> 04:06:10,959
still less likely that the actual combat will take place.

4114
04:06:11,479 --> 04:06:14,479
These targets will nevertheless indirectly present us with a very

4115
04:06:14,479 --> 04:06:17,879
serious problem, though it is political rather than military. The

4116
04:06:17,879 --> 04:06:21,520
formation of the large teams required by these targets will

4117
04:06:21,600 --> 04:06:24,959
raise a delicate issue of the coup within the coup danger.

4118
04:06:26,239 --> 04:06:29,319
During the active phase of the coup, the situation will

4119
04:06:29,319 --> 04:06:32,760
be confused and extremely unstable, while the other teams will

4120
04:06:32,799 --> 04:06:35,000
be too small to attempt their leader into trying to

4121
04:06:35,079 --> 04:06:38,520
usurp our control. The operational leaders that the A teams

4122
04:06:38,559 --> 04:06:41,799
may well succumb to temptation. The man who leads the

4123
04:06:41,920 --> 04:06:44,959
tanks that have just seized a presidential palace may easily

4124
04:06:45,000 --> 04:06:47,879
persuade himself that he can also seize power on his

4125
04:06:47,920 --> 04:06:50,920
own behalf, and if the A team is sufficiently powerful,

4126
04:06:51,079 --> 04:06:56,120
he may do just that. Our satisfaction at having carried

4127
04:06:56,120 --> 04:06:59,559
out a coup successfully would be an insufficient reward for

4128
04:06:59,639 --> 04:07:03,680
all our efforts unless we also retain power afterwards. It

4129
04:07:03,719 --> 04:07:06,440
will be necessary then to adopt measures to prevent the

4130
04:07:06,520 --> 04:07:10,760
leaders of these large teams from challenging our position. This

4131
04:07:10,799 --> 04:07:13,840
can sometimes be done by forming the A teams from

4132
04:07:14,040 --> 04:07:17,760
many small sub units under the overall command of an

4133
04:07:17,760 --> 04:07:19,399
inner member of our own group.

4134
04:07:21,799 --> 04:07:24,200
Speaker 2: This is no I was just gonna say, that's the

4135
04:07:24,239 --> 04:07:27,280
biggest challenge here is you can perform the coup successfully

4136
04:07:27,920 --> 04:07:31,120
and who and having somebody who you didn't intend to

4137
04:07:31,159 --> 04:07:35,280
take over take over. And very often that is the issue,

4138
04:07:35,280 --> 04:07:37,239
like in Latin America when you have a hunt that

4139
04:07:37,399 --> 04:07:42,000
theoretically this council of officers in charge, but councils don't

4140
04:07:42,040 --> 04:07:45,440
really rule very well, especially councils as military leaders. So

4141
04:07:45,520 --> 04:07:48,319
somebody's going to be in charge, even if they delegate

4142
04:07:48,360 --> 04:07:50,920
all their authority. And who's that going to be? And

4143
04:07:51,159 --> 04:07:53,079
as far as I can tell from the histories of

4144
04:07:53,159 --> 04:07:55,559
coups in process, a lot of times it seems to

4145
04:07:55,600 --> 04:07:57,639
be a role of the dice that we're going to

4146
04:07:57,639 --> 04:07:58,920
figure out after things happen.

4147
04:08:01,719 --> 04:08:04,239
Speaker 1: Where this is not possible, the A teams will have

4148
04:08:04,319 --> 04:08:07,840
to be dispersed into smaller groups assigned to secondary targets

4149
04:08:08,120 --> 04:08:11,319
as soon as they have fulfilled their primary mission. Thus,

4150
04:08:11,399 --> 04:08:13,719
the possible threat presented by the A teams will be

4151
04:08:13,760 --> 04:08:17,479
deflected by applying the energies of their leaders to other tasks.

4152
04:08:18,399 --> 04:08:21,200
The operational commanders of the A teams will probably need

4153
04:08:21,319 --> 04:08:23,879
a certain amount of time to readjust to the fact

4154
04:08:24,159 --> 04:08:27,200
that they are no longer isolated individuals engaged on a

4155
04:08:27,280 --> 04:08:31,079
dangerous endeavor and to start thinking in more ambitious terms.

4156
04:08:31,719 --> 04:08:34,120
Matters should be arranged so that they are deprived of

4157
04:08:34,120 --> 04:08:37,440
their large and unified teams before the transition is made

4158
04:08:37,639 --> 04:08:38,479
in their minds.

4159
04:08:39,319 --> 04:08:41,239
Speaker 2: And again this gets back to the issue that he

4160
04:08:41,319 --> 04:08:44,319
talks about going to We're going to simplify the planning

4161
04:08:44,360 --> 04:08:49,079
to what is absolutely necessary. Outside the core inner circle,

4162
04:08:49,159 --> 04:08:51,120
nobody's going to know about the whole plan or the

4163
04:08:51,120 --> 04:08:54,760
plan as a whole, and what you actually do the

4164
04:08:54,799 --> 04:08:58,000
initial coup is when it suddenly becomes apparent. And as

4165
04:08:58,000 --> 04:09:00,680
he said, everybody's going to become ambitious that way, and

4166
04:09:00,760 --> 04:09:03,040
that look time, and that's not necessarily a bad thing,

4167
04:09:03,040 --> 04:09:06,479
because ambitious people doing things on behalf of a collective

4168
04:09:06,600 --> 04:09:09,239
is you know, how every polity in the history of

4169
04:09:09,239 --> 04:09:13,559
the world is functioned. But the issue becomes at that point,

4170
04:09:13,600 --> 04:09:17,479
how do you integrate them in the on behalf of

4171
04:09:17,520 --> 04:09:21,000
what you as the coup plotter see as proper. Since

4172
04:09:21,040 --> 04:09:24,879
again you've deposed whatever the established legal authority was, so

4173
04:09:25,079 --> 04:09:27,159
doing that a second time becomes much easier.

4174
04:09:34,000 --> 04:09:37,280
Speaker 1: Be targets. These are the technical facilities that will not

4175
04:09:37,399 --> 04:09:40,360
usually be heavily guarded, and which in any case we

4176
04:09:40,399 --> 04:09:44,559
want to neutralize rather than sees among them any central

4177
04:09:44,600 --> 04:09:49,959
telecommunications facility and radio television stations. Each of those targets

4178
04:09:49,959 --> 04:09:52,479
will be assigned to a small team, whose personnel will

4179
04:09:52,479 --> 04:09:55,719
include a technician whose presence should help to minimize the

4180
04:09:55,760 --> 04:09:59,840
amount of physical damage resulting from sabotage. It is possible

4181
04:10:00,120 --> 04:10:06,520
interdict these targets by minor and external sabotage. The B

4182
04:10:06,719 --> 04:10:10,959
team may consist of just one or two technically competent operators.

4183
04:10:11,479 --> 04:10:13,520
Even if the actual building has to be entered for

4184
04:10:13,520 --> 04:10:15,799
a short time, the B team will still be a

4185
04:10:15,799 --> 04:10:19,000
small one. In this case, however, it should be overt

4186
04:10:19,200 --> 04:10:22,840
and consist of uniformed soldiers or police.

4187
04:10:23,200 --> 04:10:25,959
Speaker 2: The most important thing, he says, here technical facilities. It's

4188
04:10:26,239 --> 04:10:30,079
things like radio telecommunications. It could be things like you know,

4189
04:10:30,159 --> 04:10:32,840
power stations and whatnot. And the most important thing is

4190
04:10:32,840 --> 04:10:34,159
you want to control of that, but you don't want

4191
04:10:34,159 --> 04:10:35,600
to blow it up because you got to fix the

4192
04:10:35,639 --> 04:10:38,840
thing afterwards. And as you said, the goal is to

4193
04:10:38,879 --> 04:10:41,079
minimize the size of the team, so we know we

4194
04:10:41,159 --> 04:10:43,399
need the technicians in order to take control of it

4195
04:10:43,479 --> 04:10:46,200
and make sure things aren't being damaged. And you know,

4196
04:10:46,280 --> 04:10:48,600
as much security as they need in order to make

4197
04:10:48,639 --> 04:10:51,239
that happen, and not much more, because the bigger you have,

4198
04:10:51,799 --> 04:10:53,399
the easier it is to intercept them.

4199
04:10:56,000 --> 04:10:59,280
Speaker 1: See targets. These are the individuals we wish to hold

4200
04:10:59,280 --> 04:11:02,360
in isolation for the duration of the coup. In the

4201
04:11:02,399 --> 04:11:05,520
case of the main leader leaders of the government, the

4202
04:11:05,639 --> 04:11:08,559
arrests will be subsumed in the seizure of the presidential

4203
04:11:08,600 --> 04:11:12,239
palace in similar a targets. The other sea targets should

4204
04:11:12,280 --> 04:11:15,959
not present a penetration problem, but they will present an

4205
04:11:15,959 --> 04:11:19,799
evasion problem. A radio station or a royal palace can

4206
04:11:19,840 --> 04:11:23,559
be very difficult targets to seize, but at least they

4207
04:11:23,559 --> 04:11:27,440
cannot escape or conceal their identity. The personalities whom we

4208
04:11:27,479 --> 04:11:30,120
wish to arrest will try to do both. It will

4209
04:11:30,159 --> 04:11:34,399
therefore be essential to devote our early attentions to these

4210
04:11:34,440 --> 04:11:37,280
targets to ensure that they are seized before they can

4211
04:11:37,319 --> 04:11:41,319
evade Our teams. This will usually imply that the seed

4212
04:11:41,319 --> 04:11:46,120
teams will go into operation marginally earlier than the other teams,

4213
04:11:46,600 --> 04:11:48,719
and they can do so without breaking the rules of

4214
04:11:48,719 --> 04:11:52,719
simultaneous penetration of the early warning system, because they should

4215
04:11:52,760 --> 04:11:55,559
be sufficiently small and dispersed to act covertly.

4216
04:11:57,280 --> 04:11:59,319
Speaker 2: And again, and he'll repeat this. The goal is to

4217
04:11:59,360 --> 04:12:03,040
take those people whoever you know, potential key leaders outside

4218
04:12:03,040 --> 04:12:06,239
of just the presidential or royal administration, out of action.

4219
04:12:06,600 --> 04:12:08,239
The goal was not to hurt them, at least not

4220
04:12:08,280 --> 04:12:09,799
at this stage. The goal is not to kill them.

4221
04:12:10,000 --> 04:12:11,719
The goal is to take them out of action where

4222
04:12:11,719 --> 04:12:14,639
they can't communicate with their organizations, they can't work against us,

4223
04:12:16,440 --> 04:12:18,239
and in a very effective coup. A lot of times

4224
04:12:18,239 --> 04:12:19,840
you take them into something that looks a lot like

4225
04:12:19,879 --> 04:12:22,760
protective custody with them and their families are taken care of,

4226
04:12:22,879 --> 04:12:26,959
or suddenly it becomes really advitatious to cooperate with the

4227
04:12:27,000 --> 04:12:28,959
people who have you as a prisoner.

4228
04:12:31,799 --> 04:12:35,040
Speaker 1: Because those targets are human, they will be inherently more

4229
04:12:35,079 --> 04:12:38,840
problematic than some of our other objectives. The individuals concerned,

4230
04:12:39,000 --> 04:12:42,120
apart from escaping or concilling their identity, could also try

4231
04:12:42,159 --> 04:12:45,079
to subvert the very teams sent to arrest them. In

4232
04:12:45,120 --> 04:12:49,000
the case of particularly charismatic figures, our teams will have

4233
04:12:49,079 --> 04:12:52,600
to be formed from especially selective personnel. In some cases,

4234
04:12:52,639 --> 04:12:55,319
they may even be necessary to include an inner member

4235
04:12:55,360 --> 04:12:58,639
of our group. These SA teams will be small, since

4236
04:12:58,639 --> 04:13:00,879
their task will be a matter of entering a private

4237
04:13:00,920 --> 04:13:04,440
residence and overpowering one or two guards. The exact size

4238
04:13:04,440 --> 04:13:06,719
of each team will depend on the overall balance of

4239
04:13:06,799 --> 04:13:10,959
resources and requirements under which we operate, but will rarely

4240
04:13:11,040 --> 04:13:13,479
exceed a dozen men or so.

4241
04:13:13,479 --> 04:13:16,360
Speaker 2: So a good example of when this wasn't done properly

4242
04:13:16,479 --> 04:13:21,399
is like we talked about the preface to the revised

4243
04:13:21,440 --> 04:13:23,520
version of There Will Be War by Jerry Pornell. He

4244
04:13:23,520 --> 04:13:27,479
talks about that tank battalion that goes to take Geltzen

4245
04:13:27,639 --> 04:13:31,479
into captivity, where the commander goes in, you know, talks

4246
04:13:31,479 --> 04:13:33,159
to him. An hour later, comes out and he's on

4247
04:13:33,239 --> 04:13:36,639
his side, and he turns the tank around. So, as

4248
04:13:36,680 --> 04:13:38,959
he said, you know, a charismatic person who has some

4249
04:13:39,040 --> 04:13:41,680
kind of moral and legal authority can be the guy

4250
04:13:41,719 --> 04:13:45,040
who does a coup just by convincing the soldiers who

4251
04:13:45,079 --> 04:13:49,120
come to arrest them not to arrest them.

4252
04:13:50,879 --> 04:13:53,280
Speaker 1: Once the individuals that formed this group of targets have

4253
04:13:53,319 --> 04:13:55,559
been arrested, we will have to ensure that they are

4254
04:13:55,639 --> 04:13:58,479
kept under a secure form of control. Our purpose in

4255
04:13:58,559 --> 04:14:01,360
arresting them is to prevent them from using their command, authority,

4256
04:14:01,440 --> 04:14:04,719
and or personal charisma against us, and this can only

4257
04:14:04,760 --> 04:14:07,360
be achieved if we can insulate them from the public

4258
04:14:07,399 --> 04:14:10,920
for the whole duration of the coup. Such individuals are

4259
04:14:10,920 --> 04:14:14,440
often the only casualties of otherwise bloodless coups because it

4260
04:14:14,479 --> 04:14:17,040
is often easier to eliminate them rather than to keep

4261
04:14:17,079 --> 04:14:20,440
them as captives. If we do keep them, the ad

4262
04:14:20,440 --> 04:14:23,920
hoc person used must be both secret and internally secure.

4263
04:14:24,399 --> 04:14:27,399
The liberation of a popular public figure could be a

4264
04:14:28,040 --> 04:14:30,959
powerful focus of the counter coup actions on the part

4265
04:14:30,959 --> 04:14:34,159
of the opposition, so secrecy will be a more reliable

4266
04:14:34,200 --> 04:14:39,639
defense than any physical barrier. While the teams that are

4267
04:14:39,639 --> 04:14:43,719
on their way to the respective targets our other allies.

4268
04:14:44,159 --> 04:14:47,360
While the teams are on their way to their perspective targets,

4269
04:14:47,440 --> 04:14:51,040
our other allies will also come into action. The individuals

4270
04:14:51,079 --> 04:14:53,639
we have subverted in various parts of the armed forces

4271
04:14:53,639 --> 04:14:57,799
and bureaucracy will carry out their limited missions of technical neutralization,

4272
04:14:58,639 --> 04:15:00,840
and the groups as signs of the block positions will

4273
04:15:00,879 --> 04:15:04,000
be moving to take up their planned locations designed to

4274
04:15:04,040 --> 04:15:08,000
isolate the loyalist forces. In the case of those dispersed

4275
04:15:08,000 --> 04:15:13,159
individuals whose contribution will be extremely important though almost totally invisible,

4276
04:15:13,360 --> 04:15:15,920
there will be a signaling problem. Since they are scattered

4277
04:15:15,920 --> 04:15:18,680
throughout the sensitive parts of the state apparatus, it will

4278
04:15:18,719 --> 04:15:23,959
be difficult to reach them individually. Furthermore, they may include

4279
04:15:24,000 --> 04:15:28,239
informants of the security agencies, because, unlike the personnel of

4280
04:15:28,239 --> 04:15:31,000
the various teams and blocking forces, they have been recruited

4281
04:15:31,000 --> 04:15:37,319
as isolated individuals. Hence the mutual surveillance exercised on our

4282
04:15:37,360 --> 04:15:41,000
behalf and the teams will not operate. It would be

4283
04:15:41,079 --> 04:15:43,319
dangerous to give them advanced warning of the coup, and

4284
04:15:43,360 --> 04:15:46,280
their signals who go into action will have to be

4285
04:15:46,319 --> 04:15:50,239
our first broadcast on the radio television station, except in

4286
04:15:50,280 --> 04:15:54,680
particular cases where the facility to be neutralized requires early attention.

4287
04:15:57,200 --> 04:16:00,239
Our operational control over the various groups cooperating with us

4288
04:16:00,319 --> 04:16:04,520
will aim at achieving two objectives. A, as always, maximum

4289
04:16:04,600 --> 04:16:07,559
speed and the execution of the tasks, and B the

4290
04:16:07,680 --> 04:16:11,040
use of the absolute minimum of force. This will be

4291
04:16:11,079 --> 04:16:14,000
important not only because of the psychological and political factor

4292
04:16:14,000 --> 04:16:17,760
as mentioned previous, but also for a more direct technical reason,

4293
04:16:18,440 --> 04:16:22,200
the external uniformity between the two sides of the conflict.

4294
04:16:23,280 --> 04:16:25,479
Our teams will of course be nationals of the country

4295
04:16:25,479 --> 04:16:27,440
in which the coup is being staged, and most of

4296
04:16:27,479 --> 04:16:30,000
them will be soldiers and police officers, wearing the same

4297
04:16:30,079 --> 04:16:34,040
uniforms as those of the opposition. The uniformity will give

4298
04:16:34,120 --> 04:16:37,399
us a measure of protection, since the loyalist forces will

4299
04:16:37,440 --> 04:16:40,920
not readily know who is loyal and who is not. Usually,

4300
04:16:40,920 --> 04:16:43,200
it would be a mistake to prejudice the protective cover

4301
04:16:43,280 --> 04:16:47,399
by adopting distinctive armbands or other conventional labels, since we

4302
04:16:47,479 --> 04:16:50,680
will need all the protection we can get. Thus, as

4303
04:16:50,680 --> 04:16:53,159
the teams move around the capital city, probably at night,

4304
04:16:53,559 --> 04:16:56,360
they will probably not be fired upon unless they open

4305
04:16:56,440 --> 04:17:00,399
fire first. To do so, however, would be sophacific illitate

4306
04:17:00,399 --> 04:17:02,600
the work of the opposition, since this will be their

4307
04:17:02,680 --> 04:17:06,239
only way of distinguishing between their own forces and ourselves,

4308
04:17:07,159 --> 04:17:10,479
and since our teams have always been kept separate, initially

4309
04:17:10,520 --> 04:17:13,120
to prevent the penetration of the security agencies and now

4310
04:17:13,120 --> 04:17:16,440
to protect our own position within the forces of the coup.

4311
04:17:16,920 --> 04:17:19,479
There will be a danger of conflict between our teams.

4312
04:17:19,959 --> 04:17:22,319
The confusion we generate in the minds of the opposition

4313
04:17:22,479 --> 04:17:26,360
could therefore exact a price and confusion with our own ranks.

4314
04:17:27,520 --> 04:17:30,440
Speaker 2: This may No, I'm saying, fratricide is always the issue,

4315
04:17:30,440 --> 04:17:34,399
even in conventional war with the best trained troops. You know,

4316
04:17:34,760 --> 04:17:37,520
Mistaking one thing for another thing and shooting your own

4317
04:17:37,559 --> 04:17:40,079
guys as a problem. In a case where everybody's wear

4318
04:17:40,079 --> 04:17:42,559
in the same uniforms, that's even more of a problem.

4319
04:17:43,000 --> 04:17:46,000
And the fact that we're in a situation where firing

4320
04:17:46,040 --> 04:17:48,520
our weapons our goal is generally bad. We want to

4321
04:17:48,600 --> 04:17:51,719
accomplish things without actually having to fire our weapons. So

4322
04:17:51,879 --> 04:17:53,000
these are all concerns.

4323
04:17:54,360 --> 04:17:58,239
Speaker 1: Ok, this may have serious consequences unless our forces respect

4324
04:17:58,239 --> 04:18:01,760
the rule of a minimal and purely defensive use of force.

4325
04:18:03,079 --> 04:18:04,799
I'm gonna end it right there for today. I have

4326
04:18:04,840 --> 04:18:08,879
a hard out. Anything you want to wrap up on this.

4327
04:18:09,600 --> 04:18:12,280
Speaker 2: No, Like you said, the goal is to avoid fighting.

4328
04:18:13,000 --> 04:18:18,000
You have weapons basically to force compliance and hopefully that

4329
04:18:18,040 --> 04:18:19,440
works without having to shoot people.

4330
04:18:21,319 --> 04:18:24,760
Speaker 1: Awesome, awesome, thank you, and I hope you'll come back

4331
04:18:24,760 --> 04:18:28,440
and finish this with me, because thank you. You know

4332
04:18:28,719 --> 04:18:30,840
you got me into this, so you're gonna get me

4333
04:18:30,840 --> 04:18:31,200
out of this.

4334
04:18:31,840 --> 04:18:34,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm sorry, all.

4335
04:18:34,680 --> 04:18:38,719
Speaker 1: Right, John, Thank you very much, sir. Welcome everyone back

4336
04:18:38,760 --> 04:18:42,559
to the finale, part eleven of kude To by Edward

4337
04:18:42,879 --> 04:18:47,000
Lutvach and John field House is here to finish it

4338
04:18:47,120 --> 04:18:48,639
up with me. How are you doing, John?

4339
04:18:49,120 --> 04:18:50,879
Speaker 2: Doing well? I think we're both ready to get this

4340
04:18:50,959 --> 04:18:51,719
damn thing over with.

4341
04:18:53,000 --> 04:18:57,040
Speaker 1: Yep, let's kill this and uh and move on. All right,

4342
04:18:57,280 --> 04:19:02,719
just gonna start reading. Let's go heading the immediate post

4343
04:19:02,760 --> 04:19:08,000
coup situation. Once our targets have been seized, the loyalist

4344
04:19:08,040 --> 04:19:10,959
forces have been isolated, and the rest of the bureaucracy

4345
04:19:11,000 --> 04:19:13,879
and armed forces have been neutralized, the active and more

4346
04:19:13,920 --> 04:19:17,639
mechanical phase of the coup will be over, but everything

4347
04:19:17,680 --> 04:19:20,440
will still be in the balance. The old regime will

4348
04:19:20,479 --> 04:19:23,000
have been deprived of its control over the critical parts

4349
04:19:23,000 --> 04:19:25,840
of the mechanism of the state, but we ourselves will

4350
04:19:25,879 --> 04:19:28,319
not yet be in control of it, except in a

4351
04:19:28,360 --> 04:19:31,440
purely physical sense, and then only in the area of

4352
04:19:31,440 --> 04:19:35,200
the capital city. If we can retain our control over

4353
04:19:35,239 --> 04:19:39,120
what we have seized, those political forces whose primary requirement

4354
04:19:39,440 --> 04:19:41,920
is the preservation of law and order will probably give

4355
04:19:42,000 --> 04:19:46,239
us their allegiance Our objective therefore, is to freeze the

4356
04:19:46,280 --> 04:19:50,319
situation so that this process can take place until the

4357
04:19:50,360 --> 04:19:54,120
actual execution of the coup. Our aim was to destabilize

4358
04:19:54,159 --> 04:19:58,799
the situation Afterward, however, all our efforts should be directed

4359
04:19:58,840 --> 04:20:04,799
at stabilizing rather restabilizing it. We will be doing this

4360
04:20:04,920 --> 04:20:09,079
at three different levels. A among our own forces, where

4361
04:20:09,079 --> 04:20:11,760
our aim is to prevent our military or police allies

4362
04:20:11,760 --> 04:20:16,799
from usurping our leadership, B within the state bureaucracy whose

4363
04:20:16,840 --> 04:20:21,200
allegiance and cooperation we wish to secure, and see with

4364
04:20:21,280 --> 04:20:24,280
the public at large, whose accepstance we want to gain.

4365
04:20:25,239 --> 04:20:27,600
In each case, we will be using our leverage within

4366
04:20:27,719 --> 04:20:30,719
one level in order to control the next one. But

4367
04:20:30,879 --> 04:20:35,040
each level will also require separate and particular measures.

4368
04:20:36,200 --> 04:20:39,760
Speaker 2: Yeah about that, there's I would say two things. Number One,

4369
04:20:40,319 --> 04:20:43,479
traditional military operations, we always say the most dangerous part

4370
04:20:43,760 --> 04:20:46,920
when you're conducting a direct attack on an objective is

4371
04:20:47,000 --> 04:20:49,040
right after you seized it, because at that point the

4372
04:20:49,559 --> 04:20:54,319
adrenalines down, you start having physical fatigue set in, but

4373
04:20:54,399 --> 04:20:57,280
you haven't fully consolidated the target, so it's really easy

4374
04:20:57,319 --> 04:20:59,079
for somebody else to come along and attack you and

4375
04:20:59,159 --> 04:21:00,639
drive you off the object. Tip at that point.

4376
04:21:01,799 --> 04:21:01,920
Speaker 4: Uh.

4377
04:21:02,000 --> 04:21:05,280
Speaker 2: The second one is I've heard it described anytime you're

4378
04:21:05,319 --> 04:21:09,760
having a takeover of authority. The best analogy is probably

4379
04:21:10,120 --> 04:21:14,079
the Call of the While the chapters where Buck takes

4380
04:21:14,079 --> 04:21:16,959
over a leadership of the pack. So in the beginning

4381
04:21:17,000 --> 04:21:24,520
he's out rightly attacking authority, he's instigating insurrection, he's trying

4382
04:21:24,559 --> 04:21:27,120
to create discontent. But once he's an authority, he has

4383
04:21:27,159 --> 04:21:30,360
to crush all that preferabiliar with solt power. But you

4384
04:21:30,840 --> 04:21:33,319
are now the authority, so you have to act as an.

4385
04:21:33,200 --> 04:21:38,000
Speaker 1: Authority a among our own forces, where our aim is

4386
04:21:38,040 --> 04:21:42,200
to prevent our military or police allies from usurping our leadership.

4387
04:21:43,040 --> 04:21:46,559
From your reading of history and looking studying some coups,

4388
04:21:46,600 --> 04:21:47,639
how often does that happen?

4389
04:21:48,600 --> 04:21:51,520
Speaker 2: I'll keep in mind that coups can be hard to

4390
04:21:51,600 --> 04:21:56,120
really analyze because most effective cups you destroy the documents afterwards.

4391
04:21:56,120 --> 04:21:59,399
So the lead up is it tends to be conjectured,

4392
04:21:59,440 --> 04:22:03,879
and it tends to the materials you have from the

4393
04:22:03,920 --> 04:22:08,200
evidence remaining tends to be from Western journalists who not

4394
04:22:08,280 --> 04:22:10,760
only are their biased, they're also oblivious to anything that

4395
04:22:10,799 --> 04:22:13,200
happens in the real world. But that tends to be

4396
04:22:13,280 --> 04:22:17,479
fairly common right, because essentially you're having a coalition of

4397
04:22:17,520 --> 04:22:21,639
people who are cooperating to achieve their objective, and every

4398
04:22:21,680 --> 04:22:24,239
member that coalition has their own idea of what should

4399
04:22:24,239 --> 04:22:28,920
happen afterwards. So I'd say basically every coup is something

4400
04:22:29,000 --> 04:22:32,719
like that. The question is who wins.

4401
04:22:31,399 --> 04:22:35,399
Speaker 1: New heading stabilizing our own forces. During the planning stage,

4402
04:22:35,399 --> 04:22:37,760
our recruits in the armed forces will be fully conscious

4403
04:22:37,799 --> 04:22:39,719
of the fact that the success of the coup and

4404
04:22:39,719 --> 04:22:43,040
their own safety depends on the work of coordination that

4405
04:22:43,079 --> 04:22:47,079
we perform. Immediately after the coup. However, the only manifestation

4406
04:22:47,319 --> 04:22:50,040
of all our efforts will be the direct force that

4407
04:22:50,040 --> 04:22:53,840
they themselves control. In these circumstances, they may well be

4408
04:22:53,959 --> 04:22:56,520
tempted into trying a coup of their own, and they

4409
04:22:56,520 --> 04:22:59,280
could do this by establishing contact with the other military

4410
04:22:59,360 --> 04:23:02,840
leaders have recruited so as to secure their agreement to

4411
04:23:02,879 --> 04:23:07,280
our exclusion from their leadership. Apart from those dispersal countermeasures

4412
04:23:07,280 --> 04:23:11,079
discussed earlier, our only effective defense will be to retain

4413
04:23:11,200 --> 04:23:15,719
full control over all horizontal communications, or in other words,

4414
04:23:16,000 --> 04:23:19,159
to remain the only contact between each military leader we

4415
04:23:19,200 --> 04:23:22,719
have recruited and his colleagues. This can sometimes be done

4416
04:23:22,799 --> 04:23:28,079
technically by keeping under our control the actual communication equipment

4417
04:23:28,159 --> 04:23:31,079
linking the various units. But this would only be effective

4418
04:23:31,079 --> 04:23:35,040
in unusually extensive capital cities and would in any case

4419
04:23:35,120 --> 04:23:40,680
break down after a relatively short period of time. Typically,

4420
04:23:40,760 --> 04:23:44,600
we will need somewhat more subtle political and psychological methods

4421
04:23:44,639 --> 04:23:47,760
to keep the various military leaders we have recruited well

4422
04:23:47,799 --> 04:23:51,680
separated from each other. This may involve promises of accelerated

4423
04:23:51,719 --> 04:23:56,000
promotions to selected younger officers who could not otherwise expect

4424
04:23:56,120 --> 04:23:59,520
very rapid advancement, even within the limited context of those

4425
04:23:59,559 --> 04:24:02,479
who have pret aticipated in the coup. It will also

4426
04:24:02,520 --> 04:24:05,120
be useful to remind our military and police allies that

4427
04:24:05,159 --> 04:24:08,399
their colleagues outside the conspiracy may try to displace them

4428
04:24:08,680 --> 04:24:12,799
and block unless they and we form a tight and

4429
04:24:12,959 --> 04:24:16,920
mutually supportive group. In general, we should ensure that all

4430
04:24:17,000 --> 04:24:20,159
those who could pose an internal threat are kept occupied

4431
04:24:20,200 --> 04:24:23,479
on tasks which, whether essential or not, will at least

4432
04:24:23,520 --> 04:24:26,440
absorb their energies, and that there are divers and that

4433
04:24:26,959 --> 04:24:31,959
there are divisive factors operating between them. As soon as

4434
04:24:31,959 --> 04:24:34,719
we begin to receive the allegiance of military and bureaucratic

4435
04:24:34,840 --> 04:24:39,520
leaders who we previously outside the conspiracy, who were previously

4436
04:24:39,520 --> 04:24:42,920
outside the conspiracy are leveraged with our military and police

4437
04:24:42,959 --> 04:24:47,159
recruits will increase very substantially. The problem of retaining control

4438
04:24:47,200 --> 04:24:53,360
against such internal threats will therefore be largely short term.

4439
04:24:53,479 --> 04:24:56,000
As soon as our position has been established, our best

4440
04:24:56,120 --> 04:24:59,200
policy may be to dispose of our dangerous allies by

4441
04:24:59,280 --> 04:25:02,959
using all the use methods available for that purpose, diplomatic

4442
04:25:03,040 --> 04:25:07,879
posting abroad, nominal end or remote command positions, and promotions

4443
04:25:07,879 --> 04:25:11,520
to less vital parts of the state apparatus. Because it

4444
04:25:11,559 --> 04:25:14,959
is possible that an embryonic coup within our coup has

4445
04:25:15,000 --> 04:25:17,959
existed within our forces from the very beginning, the general

4446
04:25:18,000 --> 04:25:21,479
security measures we design to protect ourselves against the penetration

4447
04:25:22,040 --> 04:25:26,319
of the security agencies will also serve a useful supplementary function.

4448
04:25:27,200 --> 04:25:30,920
They will prevent the lateral spread of the conspiracy. If

4449
04:25:30,920 --> 04:25:34,399
our internal security procedures are sufficiently good to prevent all

4450
04:25:34,479 --> 04:25:37,959
contact between the separate cells, so that any infiltration by

4451
04:25:37,959 --> 04:25:41,239
the security agencies is contained, they will also prevent the

4452
04:25:41,239 --> 04:25:46,639
coordination of this inner opposition. It has been calculated that

4453
04:25:46,680 --> 04:25:49,879
in a defensive military situation, even if only twenty percent

4454
04:25:49,920 --> 04:25:52,559
of the troops of a unit are actively loyal, the

4455
04:25:52,680 --> 04:25:57,639
units concerned should operate successfully and perform their assigned function.

4456
04:25:59,239 --> 04:26:01,479
Speaker 2: There's a couple things that are really important here. The

4457
04:26:01,520 --> 04:26:04,440
first off, he talks about the need to effectively control

4458
04:26:04,520 --> 04:26:10,959
lateral communication amongst your coalition immediately afterwards, which I that's

4459
04:26:10,959 --> 04:26:12,680
something I wouldn't have thought of, And that's a very

4460
04:26:12,719 --> 04:26:15,959
great point because it makes basically you're trying to prevent

4461
04:26:16,120 --> 04:26:20,319
your allies from coordinating around you. The downside of that,

4462
04:26:20,920 --> 04:26:23,879
the difficult part of that, and again the counterproductive part

4463
04:26:23,879 --> 04:26:27,959
of that is effective militaries have huge amounts of lateral communication,

4464
04:26:28,079 --> 04:26:33,520
horizontal communications. Very often they will have more communications horizontally

4465
04:26:33,600 --> 04:26:37,959
than vertically because junior leaders are trained and empowered. I know,

4466
04:26:38,000 --> 04:26:40,559
empowered is a stupid word, but we can say empowered

4467
04:26:40,719 --> 04:26:46,040
to exercise initiative in order to achieve their objectives, which

4468
04:26:46,040 --> 04:26:50,799
means that by eliminating horizontal communications, no matter how temporarily,

4469
04:26:50,920 --> 04:26:54,440
keep in mind, we are also harming our own combat effectiveness.

4470
04:26:54,840 --> 04:26:56,879
So it's something we need to be very concerned with,

4471
04:26:56,959 --> 04:26:59,600
and it's part of why he emphasizes the need to

4472
04:27:00,079 --> 04:27:02,760
solidate power and move on, because we don't want to

4473
04:27:02,799 --> 04:27:07,959
hang out in that situation for very long. Another thing

4474
04:27:08,000 --> 04:27:11,159
he talks about ways you would eliminate either allies you

4475
04:27:11,239 --> 04:27:13,120
could become a risk, or other people in the power

4476
04:27:13,159 --> 04:27:16,000
structure who become a risk afterwards, and you know, there's

4477
04:27:16,040 --> 04:27:18,120
a tendency to immediately think, well, we're gonna have a

4478
04:27:18,120 --> 04:27:20,879
purge and when we're gonna kill them all, and not

4479
04:27:21,040 --> 04:27:24,360
just morally, it creates huge problems with your legal structure

4480
04:27:24,440 --> 04:27:28,399
because it basically undermines any faith in your legal structure,

4481
04:27:30,120 --> 04:27:32,319
and it definitely harms you know, the whole you know,

4482
04:27:32,760 --> 04:27:35,920
collective cooperation at that point. So one of the most

4483
04:27:35,959 --> 04:27:40,360
effective ways to purge people, effectively purge people from an

4484
04:27:40,440 --> 04:27:43,600
organization after something like that is to promote them and

4485
04:27:43,680 --> 04:27:46,600
retire them and maneuver them in a situation where they

4486
04:27:46,600 --> 04:27:51,120
can't do things. You know, most militaries have academic posts,

4487
04:27:51,120 --> 04:27:53,959
either at the military academy or higher command schools, or

4488
04:27:54,479 --> 04:27:57,120
sometimes even teaching at various level of universities where you

4489
04:27:57,120 --> 04:27:59,440
put military historians at the end of the career. All

4490
04:27:59,479 --> 04:28:02,479
those are great ways where you can promote somebody, you know,

4491
04:28:02,879 --> 04:28:06,719
give them a nice cushy assignment into retirement, but while

4492
04:28:06,760 --> 04:28:12,239
you know, effectively purging them from the organization. So creativity matters.

4493
04:28:12,319 --> 04:28:16,440
And I mean, the big takeaway from machiavilis the prince is,

4494
04:28:17,079 --> 04:28:21,159
you know, sometimes you have to behave altruistically in order to,

4495
04:28:21,680 --> 04:28:24,520
you know, get what you want from a power politics standpoint.

4496
04:28:25,959 --> 04:28:29,840
Speaker 1: Stabilizing the bureaucracy, Our attitudes towards the second level, the

4497
04:28:29,959 --> 04:28:33,639
armed forces and bureaucracy which were not infiltrated before the coup,

4498
04:28:33,920 --> 04:28:36,399
will depend partly on the degree of control that we

4499
04:28:36,520 --> 04:28:40,159
have over our own incorporated forces. Assuming that we have

4500
04:28:40,200 --> 04:28:43,600
a reasonably firm hold over them, we should not try

4501
04:28:43,600 --> 04:28:46,520
to extract any early commitment from the majority of soldiers

4502
04:28:46,520 --> 04:28:49,760
in bureaucrats, whose first information of our existence will be

4503
04:28:49,840 --> 04:28:53,440
the coup itself. Not knowing the extent of the conspiracy,

4504
04:28:53,479 --> 04:28:57,200
their principal preoccupation will be the possible danger of those

4505
04:28:57,479 --> 04:29:00,399
of their positions in the hierarchy. If most of the

4506
04:29:00,440 --> 04:29:02,719
officers of the armed forces or the officials of a

4507
04:29:02,799 --> 04:29:05,639
ministry have joined the coup, those who have not are

4508
04:29:05,680 --> 04:29:09,799
hardly likely to be rewarded subsequently by rapid promotion. If

4509
04:29:09,840 --> 04:29:13,040
the soldiers and bureaucrats realize that the group participating in

4510
04:29:13,079 --> 04:29:16,600
the coup was in reality quite small, they would also

4511
04:29:16,719 --> 04:29:19,680
realize the strength of their own position. The fact is

4512
04:29:19,719 --> 04:29:23,399
that they are collectively indispensable to any government, including the

4513
04:29:23,399 --> 04:29:26,440
one to be formed after the coup. In the period

4514
04:29:26,479 --> 04:29:29,799
immediately after the coup, however, they will probably see themselves

4515
04:29:29,799 --> 04:29:33,479
as isolated individuals whose careers and even lives could be

4516
04:29:33,520 --> 04:29:37,719
in danger. This feeling of insecurity may precipitate two alternate

4517
04:29:38,000 --> 04:29:42,120
alternative reactions, both extreme. They will either step forward to

4518
04:29:42,159 --> 04:29:44,760
assert their loyalty to the leaders of the coup, or

4519
04:29:44,799 --> 04:29:47,520
else they will try to foment or join an opposition

4520
04:29:47,600 --> 04:29:51,639
against us. Both reactions are undesirable from our point of view.

4521
04:29:51,959 --> 04:29:55,120
Assertions of loyalty will usually be worthless because they are

4522
04:29:55,159 --> 04:29:58,079
made by men who have just abandoned their previous and

4523
04:29:58,159 --> 04:30:02,879
possibly more legitimate masters. Opposition will always be dangerous and

4524
04:30:02,920 --> 04:30:07,600
sometimes disastrous. Our policy toward the military and bureaucratic cadres

4525
04:30:08,040 --> 04:30:11,360
will be to reduce this sense of insecurity. We should

4526
04:30:11,440 --> 04:30:14,280
establish direct communication with as many of the more senior

4527
04:30:14,319 --> 04:30:18,120
officers and officials as possible to convey one principal idea

4528
04:30:18,159 --> 04:30:21,639
in a forceful and convincing matter manner that the coup

4529
04:30:21,719 --> 04:30:24,239
will not threaten their positions in hierarchy and the aims

4530
04:30:24,239 --> 04:30:26,200
of the coup do not include a reshaping of the

4531
04:30:26,239 --> 04:30:31,840
existing military or administrative structures. This requirement will incidentally have

4532
04:30:31,959 --> 04:30:35,280
technical implications in the planning stage when the sabotage of

4533
04:30:35,319 --> 04:30:37,920
the means of communication must be carried out so as

4534
04:30:37,959 --> 04:30:39,840
to be easily reversible.

4535
04:30:40,399 --> 04:30:43,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was going to say on that regard one

4536
04:30:43,360 --> 04:30:48,120
of the interesting things in the NSDAP taking over authority

4537
04:30:48,360 --> 04:30:52,799
in Germany, and just because of my research currently was

4538
04:30:52,840 --> 04:30:54,840
brought about, or what was brought to my attention is

4539
04:30:55,680 --> 04:30:58,000
Reinhard Heydrich was known very much when he was made

4540
04:30:58,600 --> 04:31:02,239
head of political police that he largely kept in charge

4541
04:31:02,559 --> 04:31:07,159
the technical people, the skilled professional investigators. In those agencies.

4542
04:31:07,600 --> 04:31:11,399
He eliminated one or two major leaders, and he eliminated

4543
04:31:11,399 --> 04:31:15,079
any person he was seeking as being actively opposed to

4544
04:31:16,079 --> 04:31:19,879
the health and well being of the German state. Generally

4545
04:31:19,879 --> 04:31:22,600
these are people who are closet undercover communists. But for

4546
04:31:22,639 --> 04:31:25,479
the most part he co opted them because he said

4547
04:31:25,639 --> 04:31:27,879
most of these people, even when they were his political enemies,

4548
04:31:27,879 --> 04:31:31,799
were German patriots who really wanted the security of Germany.

4549
04:31:31,840 --> 04:31:35,399
So if he could actually co opt them, he ensured

4550
04:31:35,440 --> 04:31:38,440
that not only did they not become punished as enemies,

4551
04:31:38,479 --> 04:31:40,360
of the new regime, but he actually gave them a

4552
04:31:40,399 --> 04:31:44,559
stake in the new regime, to the point that Hydrich's

4553
04:31:44,760 --> 04:31:47,680
inner circle largely consisted of men who didn't join the

4554
04:31:47,719 --> 04:31:50,120
SS until he made them join the SS.

4555
04:31:50,600 --> 04:31:57,959
Speaker 1: So the information campaign over the mass media will also

4556
04:31:58,040 --> 04:32:01,479
reach this narrow but important section of the population, but

4557
04:32:01,520 --> 04:32:03,920
it would be highly desirable to have more direct and

4558
04:32:04,000 --> 04:32:08,239
confidential means of communication with them. The general political aims

4559
04:32:08,239 --> 04:32:10,639
of the coup, as expressed in our pronouncements on the

4560
04:32:10,719 --> 04:32:14,319
radio and television, will help to package our tacit deal

4561
04:32:14,360 --> 04:32:17,479
with the bureaucrats and soldiers, but its real content will

4562
04:32:17,520 --> 04:32:20,879
be the assurance that their careers are not threatened. In

4563
04:32:20,959 --> 04:32:25,440
dealing with particular army or police officers who control especially

4564
04:32:25,479 --> 04:32:29,639
important forces, or with important bureaucrats, we may well decide

4565
04:32:29,719 --> 04:32:32,479
to go further in the sense that an actual exchange

4566
04:32:32,520 --> 04:32:37,440
of promises of mutual support may take place. We should, however,

4567
04:32:37,639 --> 04:32:40,120
remember that our main strength lies in the fact that

4568
04:32:40,200 --> 04:32:42,879
only we have a precise idea of the extent of

4569
04:32:42,920 --> 04:32:46,239
our power. It would be unwise to enter into agreements

4570
04:32:46,239 --> 04:32:50,159
that show we need support urgently. More generally, any information

4571
04:32:50,200 --> 04:32:54,120
that reveals the limits of our capabilities could threaten our position,

4572
04:32:54,479 --> 04:32:56,799
which is essentially based on the fact that our inherent

4573
04:32:56,879 --> 04:33:00,399
weakness is concealed. Again, as a.

4574
04:33:00,600 --> 04:33:03,200
Speaker 2: Gut no I was going to say, like any clandestine

4575
04:33:03,799 --> 04:33:06,880
event or activity, just like war itself, the goal is

4576
04:33:06,919 --> 04:33:10,319
to know as much about your enemy as possible, while

4577
04:33:10,400 --> 04:33:13,439
concealing as much of the facts about your situation from

4578
04:33:13,479 --> 04:33:14,759
the enemy as possible.

4579
04:33:17,360 --> 04:33:20,439
Speaker 1: Again, as in the case of our incorporated forces, we

4580
04:33:20,479 --> 04:33:23,799
should make every effort to prevent communication between the cadres

4581
04:33:23,880 --> 04:33:27,360
of the armed forces and bureaucracy outside our group. Such

4582
04:33:27,400 --> 04:33:30,919
communication would usually be indispensable to those who may seek

4583
04:33:30,959 --> 04:33:33,799
to stage a counter coup. The ignorance of the extent

4584
04:33:33,880 --> 04:33:37,880
of the conspiracy will discourage such consultations. It is obviously

4585
04:33:37,959 --> 04:33:40,680
dangerous to ask somebody to participate in the opposition to

4586
04:33:40,759 --> 04:33:43,799
a group of which he is himself a member, But

4587
04:33:43,880 --> 04:33:47,720
we should also interfere with such consultations directly by using

4588
04:33:47,759 --> 04:33:54,599
our control of the transport and communications infrastructure. New heading

4589
04:33:54,759 --> 04:33:59,080
from power to authority, stabilizing the masses. The masses have

4590
04:33:59,159 --> 04:34:01,799
neither the weapons of the military or the administrative facilities

4591
04:34:01,840 --> 04:34:04,759
of the bureaucracy, but their attitudes to the new government

4592
04:34:04,880 --> 04:34:08,759
established after the coup will ultimately be decisive. Our immediate

4593
04:34:08,759 --> 04:34:11,520
aim will be to enforce public order, but our long

4594
04:34:11,599 --> 04:34:14,080
term objective is to gain the acceptance of the masses

4595
04:34:14,119 --> 04:34:16,759
so that physical coercion will no longer be needed in

4596
04:34:16,919 --> 04:34:20,880
order to secure compliance with our orders. In both phases,

4597
04:34:20,959 --> 04:34:23,639
we shall use our control over the infrastructure and the

4598
04:34:23,680 --> 04:34:26,680
means of coercion. But as the coup recedes in time,

4599
04:34:26,799 --> 04:34:32,439
political means will become increasingly important, physical ones less. So

4600
04:34:32,560 --> 04:34:34,959
our first measure is to be taken immediately after. The

4601
04:34:35,000 --> 04:34:37,720
active phase of the coup will be designed to freeze

4602
04:34:37,759 --> 04:34:41,959
the situation by imposing physical immobility. A total curfew, the

4603
04:34:41,959 --> 04:34:44,880
interruption of all forms of public transport, the closing of

4604
04:34:44,959 --> 04:34:47,959
all public buildings and facilities, and the interruption of the

4605
04:34:48,000 --> 04:34:52,520
telecommunications service will prevent or at any rate impede active

4606
04:34:52,560 --> 04:34:56,799
resistance to us. Organized resistance will be very difficult because

4607
04:34:56,840 --> 04:34:59,919
there will be no way of inspiring and coordinating our

4608
04:35:00,000 --> 04:35:06,159
our potential opponents. Unorganized resistance is on the part of

4609
04:35:06,200 --> 04:35:09,680
a mob, will, on the other hand, be prevented because

4610
04:35:09,720 --> 04:35:12,240
the people who might form such a mob would have

4611
04:35:12,319 --> 04:35:15,360
to violate the curfew while acting as individuals and not

4612
04:35:15,479 --> 04:35:19,159
many will do this without the protective shelter of anonymity

4613
04:35:19,400 --> 04:35:22,720
that only a crowd can provide the impact of our

4614
04:35:22,720 --> 04:35:25,880
physical measures will be reduced outside the capital city, but

4615
04:35:25,959 --> 04:35:28,119
to the extent that the capital city is to focus

4616
04:35:28,159 --> 04:35:32,319
on the national network of transport and communications, both physical

4617
04:35:32,319 --> 04:35:36,479
movement and the flow of information will be impeded. The

4618
04:35:36,520 --> 04:35:39,959
physical controls will be purely negative and defensive in character,

4619
04:35:40,279 --> 04:35:42,799
and our reliance on them could be minimal because their

4620
04:35:42,880 --> 04:35:48,200
concommitment commitments effect is to enhance the importance of the

4621
04:35:48,319 --> 04:35:53,400
armed forces we have subverted. Our second and far more

4622
04:35:53,439 --> 04:35:56,799
flexible instrument will be our control over the means of

4623
04:35:56,880 --> 04:36:01,200
mass communications. Their importance will be particularly great because the

4624
04:36:01,240 --> 04:36:05,479
flow of all other information, notably social media via the Internet,

4625
04:36:05,680 --> 04:36:09,240
will be filtered or blocked by our controls. Moreover, the

4626
04:36:09,319 --> 04:36:12,240
confused and dramatic events of the coup will mean that

4627
04:36:12,279 --> 04:36:15,680
the radio and television services will have a particularly attentive

4628
04:36:16,000 --> 04:36:20,759
and receptive audience. In broadcasting over the radio and television services,

4629
04:36:20,799 --> 04:36:23,759
our purpose is not to provide information about the situation,

4630
04:36:24,200 --> 04:36:27,680
but rather to affect its development by exploiting our monopoly

4631
04:36:27,799 --> 04:36:31,080
of those media. In the context of filtered or blocked

4632
04:36:31,080 --> 04:36:35,080
social media. We will have two principal objectives in the

4633
04:36:35,119 --> 04:36:38,880
information campaign that will start immediately after the coup, To

4634
04:36:39,000 --> 04:36:42,279
discourage resistance to us by emphasizing the strength of our position,

4635
04:36:42,919 --> 04:36:45,799
and to dampen the fears that would otherwise give rise

4636
04:36:45,840 --> 04:36:51,639
to such resistance. Our first objective will be achieved by

4637
04:36:51,680 --> 04:36:54,720
conveying the reality and strength of the coup, instead of

4638
04:36:54,759 --> 04:36:57,360
trying to justify it. This will be done by listing

4639
04:36:57,439 --> 04:37:00,319
the controls we have imposed, by emphasizing the law and

4640
04:37:00,560 --> 04:37:03,680
order that law and order have been fully restored, and

4641
04:37:03,720 --> 04:37:06,720
by stating that all resistance has ceased. One of the

4642
04:37:06,759 --> 04:37:09,360
major obstacles to active resistance will be the fact that

4643
04:37:09,400 --> 04:37:12,959
we have fragmented the opposition so that each individual opponent

4644
04:37:13,279 --> 04:37:16,400
would have to operate in isolation, cut off from friends

4645
04:37:16,400 --> 04:37:20,439
and associates. In these circumstances, the news of any resistance

4646
04:37:20,439 --> 04:37:23,040
against us would act as a powerful stimulant to further

4647
04:37:23,119 --> 04:37:27,599
resistance by breaking down this feeling of isolation. We must

4648
04:37:27,599 --> 04:37:31,159
make every effort therefore, to withhold such news if there

4649
04:37:31,240 --> 04:37:34,360
is in fact some resistance, and if its intensity and

4650
04:37:34,439 --> 04:37:37,319
locale are such as to make it difficult to conceal

4651
04:37:37,360 --> 04:37:41,040
from particular segments of the public. We should admit its existence,

4652
04:37:41,240 --> 04:37:44,560
but we should strongly emphasize that it is isolated, the

4653
04:37:44,599 --> 04:37:48,319
product of the obstinacy of a few misguided or dishonest

4654
04:37:48,319 --> 04:37:51,360
individuals who are not affiliated with any party or group

4655
04:37:51,439 --> 04:37:52,840
or significant membership.

4656
04:37:53,840 --> 04:37:56,439
Speaker 2: When you read that, it suddenly becomes clear why that

4657
04:37:56,880 --> 04:37:59,959
any kind of mass or any kind of local organization

4658
04:38:00,279 --> 04:38:06,159
against any kind of central government bullshit like the school

4659
04:38:06,159 --> 04:38:09,799
system in Northern Virginia when they were organizing against transactivists

4660
04:38:09,919 --> 04:38:12,639
who were, you know, raping their daughters, or the stuff

4661
04:38:12,639 --> 04:38:15,639
that's currently going on in Ohio against Haitian migrants. There's

4662
04:38:15,639 --> 04:38:19,200
a reason why they first try to you know, block

4663
04:38:19,400 --> 04:38:22,200
any kind of discussion of that and then portray it

4664
04:38:22,240 --> 04:38:25,479
in a completely different light. Is they're trying to, above

4665
04:38:25,520 --> 04:38:29,040
all else, making sure that people see themselves as iye, isolated.

4666
04:38:30,919 --> 04:38:36,159
Speaker 1: Well also that and in the process they're demonizing that

4667
04:38:36,200 --> 04:38:39,639
group exact people on the outside.

4668
04:38:39,919 --> 04:38:45,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, probably the biggest form of communication management

4669
04:38:45,400 --> 04:38:49,599
information management of your enemies is trying to control and

4670
04:38:49,639 --> 04:38:50,720
dictate their morality.

4671
04:38:52,680 --> 04:38:56,479
Speaker 1: Yeah. There really is no better example right now going

4672
04:38:56,520 --> 04:39:01,240
on than what's going on in Springfield, Ohio. Yeah, when

4673
04:39:01,759 --> 04:39:03,840
I was just reading this, and I just passed this

4674
04:39:03,959 --> 04:39:07,639
along to a friend to try and get some information

4675
04:39:07,759 --> 04:39:13,119
on it. Twenty four houses were sold last year three

4676
04:39:13,159 --> 04:39:19,360
of them. One was valued at eighteen thousand, another at

4677
04:39:19,360 --> 04:39:23,360
twenty four thousand, another forty eight thousand, and each of

4678
04:39:23,400 --> 04:39:25,639
these twenty four houses, including those three, were sold for

4679
04:39:25,680 --> 04:39:27,439
one point six million dollars apiece.

4680
04:39:28,200 --> 04:39:28,840
Speaker 2: Jesus.

4681
04:39:30,000 --> 04:39:34,759
Speaker 1: So, I'm at the point where I think even the

4682
04:39:34,880 --> 04:39:39,000
migrant situation is there to try to cover up something else.

4683
04:39:39,919 --> 04:39:43,919
It's helping, it's a part of it. This is all

4684
04:39:43,959 --> 04:39:48,119
a part of something. But apparently there is either some

4685
04:39:48,200 --> 04:39:52,360
insane money laundering going on there or something else. And

4686
04:39:52,400 --> 04:39:54,119
that's what I'm trying to figure out.

4687
04:39:54,240 --> 04:39:57,959
Speaker 2: How this gets in the realm of conspiracy theory just

4688
04:39:58,560 --> 04:40:02,159
because we have no heart evidence, because again they're controlling

4689
04:40:02,200 --> 04:40:05,520
what we have access to. But one of the issues

4690
04:40:05,560 --> 04:40:08,080
that's been brought up the fact that we essentially we're

4691
04:40:08,080 --> 04:40:10,240
not going to have a collapse population wise, but we're

4692
04:40:10,240 --> 04:40:12,680
going to have a demographic crunch where, you know, our

4693
04:40:12,759 --> 04:40:16,799
native population because of birth rates combined with aging, we're

4694
04:40:16,880 --> 04:40:20,639
just going to have a contraction in total population, among

4695
04:40:20,680 --> 04:40:23,400
other things. One of the quickest things that affects is

4696
04:40:24,080 --> 04:40:29,400
housing prices real estate, both housing prices and commercial Elon

4697
04:40:29,479 --> 04:40:32,319
Musk has pointed out that one of the biggest negative

4698
04:40:32,400 --> 04:40:37,439
consequences in terms of the establishment of COVID is suddenly

4699
04:40:37,520 --> 04:40:40,439
all of that commercial real estate that banks hold on

4700
04:40:40,560 --> 04:40:45,919
their balance sheet as assets is basically valueless or as

4701
04:40:46,000 --> 04:40:50,400
negative value. So the process of you know, moving migrants

4702
04:40:50,439 --> 04:40:52,319
in the US, No, that doesn't do anything for commercial

4703
04:40:52,319 --> 04:40:55,880
real estate, but it can make you know, private real estate,

4704
04:40:55,959 --> 04:40:58,720
residential real estate increase in value just because you have

4705
04:40:59,240 --> 04:41:03,759
you know, suddenly increased number of people demanding a product

4706
04:41:03,880 --> 04:41:06,520
in a market that has limited ability to grow but

4707
04:41:06,680 --> 04:41:07,200
so fast.

4708
04:41:08,919 --> 04:41:13,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, this is all a you know, when you

4709
04:41:13,599 --> 04:41:18,840
look at this, it's Yaki talked about that from his

4710
04:41:18,959 --> 04:41:25,159
study of history. It doesn't matter why, but whenever large

4711
04:41:25,360 --> 04:41:31,200
groups of foreigners are moved into an existing location that

4712
04:41:31,279 --> 04:41:36,880
has a high culture, the existing the existing population stops

4713
04:41:37,400 --> 04:41:42,360
their birth rates to climb. Yeah, as like like something metaphysical,

4714
04:41:42,400 --> 04:41:45,799
Like it's like it's something metaphysical or there's something happening

4715
04:41:45,880 --> 04:41:49,599
there that basically causes that to happen. When people see

4716
04:41:49,599 --> 04:41:52,279
this influx and then all of a sudden they stop

4717
04:41:52,319 --> 04:41:53,119
having children.

4718
04:41:53,479 --> 04:41:56,240
Speaker 7: Yeah, that's an interesting point because that seems to hold

4719
04:41:56,319 --> 04:42:00,319
up for whatever reason when we're done offline at got

4720
04:42:00,720 --> 04:42:05,799
a document for suggested next read that deals with this directly.

4721
04:42:06,720 --> 04:42:09,080
Speaker 1: Okay, cool, all right, let me uh what, let's finish this.

4722
04:42:09,400 --> 04:42:12,159
We can get You and I are definitely You and

4723
04:42:12,240 --> 04:42:14,319
I are definitely the rabbit trail kind of people. Yes,

4724
04:42:15,599 --> 04:42:18,680
all right. The constant working and the motif of isolation,

4725
04:42:19,000 --> 04:42:22,360
the repetition of long and detailed list of the administrative

4726
04:42:22,360 --> 04:42:25,639
and physical controls we have imposed, and the emphasis on

4727
04:42:25,680 --> 04:42:27,919
the fact that law and order have been re established

4728
04:42:27,959 --> 04:42:31,080
should have to effect, should have the effect of making

4729
04:42:31,200 --> 04:42:36,520
resistance appear both dangerous and useless. Then he just goes

4730
04:42:36,560 --> 04:42:45,279
through a first communicate choice of styles romantic, lyrical, messianic, unprepared, rational, administrative.

4731
04:42:45,360 --> 04:42:47,599
It's just different kind of I guess this is different

4732
04:42:47,639 --> 04:42:50,279
kind of styles that you would use to communicate with

4733
04:42:51,040 --> 04:42:53,479
communicate with the people, to let them know what's going on,

4734
04:42:54,200 --> 04:42:57,639
and to seek to get there so you get them

4735
04:42:57,680 --> 04:42:58,360
on your side.

4736
04:42:58,560 --> 04:43:00,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what it looks like. And again, all the

4737
04:43:00,720 --> 04:43:02,720
charts he has are worthwhile, but none of them are

4738
04:43:02,759 --> 04:43:06,880
really good for reading in this format for listeners at home.

4739
04:43:07,119 --> 04:43:09,240
You can get this book for free any number of

4740
04:43:09,279 --> 04:43:10,880
places and just look at those.

4741
04:43:11,959 --> 04:43:14,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, if you're reading along with this one, make sure

4742
04:43:14,520 --> 04:43:17,080
to get the updated version. I believe it's twenty sixteen,

4743
04:43:17,400 --> 04:43:18,759
because a lot of this is not going to be

4744
04:43:18,799 --> 04:43:19,720
in the original version.

4745
04:43:19,799 --> 04:43:21,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, the internet was not a big issue in the

4746
04:43:21,959 --> 04:43:22,759
nineteen sixties.

4747
04:43:22,840 --> 04:43:26,040
Speaker 1: Now he wouldn't have been talking about social media Table

4748
04:43:26,080 --> 04:43:32,599
five point two. Yep. The second objective of our information

4749
04:43:32,720 --> 04:43:35,599
campaign will be to reassure the general public by dispelling

4750
04:43:35,639 --> 04:43:38,119
fears that the coup is inspired by foreign and or

4751
04:43:38,200 --> 04:43:41,560
extremist elements, and to persuade particular groups that the coup

4752
04:43:41,639 --> 04:43:43,919
is not a threat to them. The first aim will

4753
04:43:43,959 --> 04:43:47,159
be achieved by manipulating national symbols and by asserting our

4754
04:43:47,159 --> 04:43:50,520
belief in the prevailing pieties. In the Arab world, the

4755
04:43:50,520 --> 04:43:53,880
new regime will announce its belief in the Arab identity

4756
04:43:54,000 --> 04:43:58,080
and Islam. Where the Bath Party was institutionalized, as in Syria,

4757
04:43:58,439 --> 04:44:01,040
it would have been necessary to ASTs our loyalty to

4758
04:44:01,080 --> 04:44:04,919
the true Bath, not the corrupted one of the deposed dictator.

4759
04:44:05,880 --> 04:44:08,560
In Africa, the new regime will announce its intention of

4760
04:44:08,560 --> 04:44:12,680
fighting tribalism at home and racialism abroad in Latin America,

4761
04:44:12,720 --> 04:44:16,759
we need to secure social justice will be invoked everywhere

4762
04:44:16,759 --> 04:44:20,319
in the Third World. Nationalist nationalistic rhetoric will be used

4763
04:44:20,360 --> 04:44:22,759
in references made to the glorious people of X and

4764
04:44:22,759 --> 04:44:26,720
the glorious land of X, which the last regime has degraded.

4765
04:44:26,840 --> 04:44:32,200
Above all, repeated denunciations of neo and not so neo

4766
04:44:32,200 --> 04:44:39,000
colonialism are degear. Such denunciations will be particularly important where

4767
04:44:39,040 --> 04:44:41,560
there are a large Where there is a large foreign

4768
04:44:41,599 --> 04:44:45,279
business enterprise operating in the country in question, the inevitable

4769
04:44:45,319 --> 04:44:47,759
suspicions that the coup is a product of the machinations

4770
04:44:47,759 --> 04:44:51,200
of the company can only be dispelled by making violent

4771
04:44:51,279 --> 04:44:55,560
attacks on it. These being verbal and not unexpected, will

4772
04:44:55,599 --> 04:44:59,119
pacify the public without disturbing the business interests, and the

4773
04:44:59,159 --> 04:45:02,279
attacks should be all the more violent if these suspicions

4774
04:45:02,319 --> 04:45:08,000
are in fact justified. While the religious attitude leads to

4775
04:45:08,040 --> 04:45:11,520
the praise of the gods for one's successes and self

4776
04:45:11,599 --> 04:45:15,360
blame for one's failures, the nationalistic attitude is to attribute

4777
04:45:15,360 --> 04:45:20,279
successes to the nation and to blame foreigners for its failures. Similarly,

4778
04:45:20,319 --> 04:45:23,040
the chants in praise of the gods have been replaced

4779
04:45:23,040 --> 04:45:27,639
by ritualized curses variously addressed to different groups of foreigners

4780
04:45:27,880 --> 04:45:31,639
and their activities. It's really odd that Litvok would be

4781
04:45:32,080 --> 04:45:37,599
choosing foreigners as the scapegoat, Isn't it just? There's nothing personal?

4782
04:45:37,599 --> 04:45:39,880
Speaker 2: There a certain amount of projections going along.

4783
04:45:44,400 --> 04:45:48,159
Speaker 1: Thus, for the phrase the imperious, the imperialist neo colonial

4784
04:45:48,240 --> 04:45:52,639
power block, read the Americans, or if, the or the French,

4785
04:45:52,720 --> 04:45:56,560
if it is spoken by Africans of their former colonies. Similarly,

4786
04:45:56,680 --> 04:46:01,919
the phrase zionist oil monopolist plotters translates into Jews and Christians.

4787
04:46:01,919 --> 04:46:04,599
In the subconscious of the Muslim Arabs who make use

4788
04:46:04,639 --> 04:46:05,040
of it.

4789
04:46:05,799 --> 04:46:10,080
Speaker 2: It still continues to be true.

4790
04:46:10,599 --> 04:46:15,360
Speaker 1: How could you argue there may be a purely ideological

4791
04:46:15,360 --> 04:46:18,479
element in these denunciations. But even in the nineteen fifties,

4792
04:46:18,520 --> 04:46:21,240
when the American extreme right used to denounce the international

4793
04:46:21,319 --> 04:46:26,439
conspiracy of godless communism, it was it is significant that

4794
04:46:26,520 --> 04:46:32,040
they stigmatized it as Unamerican rather than anti capitalists. We

4795
04:46:32,119 --> 04:46:35,880
shall make use of suitable selection of those unlovely phrases.

4796
04:46:36,279 --> 04:46:39,360
Though their meaning has been totally obscured by constant and

4797
04:46:39,400 --> 04:46:43,240
deliberate misuse, they will be useful as indicators of our

4798
04:46:43,279 --> 04:46:47,560
impeccable nationalism, and if that is not in reality our position,

4799
04:46:47,759 --> 04:46:52,520
they will serve to obscure our true policy aims. The

4800
04:46:52,520 --> 04:46:55,799
flow of information emanating from all the sources under our

4801
04:46:55,880 --> 04:46:59,360
control should be coordinated with our other measures. The impositions

4802
04:46:59,360 --> 04:47:01,959
of physical trolls will be announced and explained, and the

4803
04:47:01,959 --> 04:47:05,799
political moves to which we now turn will be suitably presented.

4804
04:47:06,639 --> 04:47:11,000
Physical coercion will deter or defeat direct opposition, while the

4805
04:47:11,040 --> 04:47:15,119
information campaign will lay the basis of our eventual acquisition

4806
04:47:15,200 --> 04:47:19,560
of authority. But only political means will secure for us

4807
04:47:19,639 --> 04:47:24,080
a base of active support. Where the pre coup regime

4808
04:47:24,200 --> 04:47:27,880
was exceptionally brutal, corrupt, or retrograde, the leaders of the

4809
04:47:27,919 --> 04:47:31,040
coup will have little trouble in gaining a generalized form

4810
04:47:31,080 --> 04:47:35,639
of acceptance. Even then, however, the active support of specific

4811
04:47:35,680 --> 04:47:38,840
groups can only be gained by political accommodation, i e.

4812
04:47:39,240 --> 04:47:42,599
By sponsoring policies to serve the interests of particular groups,

4813
04:47:42,919 --> 04:47:46,159
thus giving them reasons for becoming committed to, or at

4814
04:47:46,240 --> 04:47:51,560
least interested in our survival. In some Latin American countries,

4815
04:47:51,599 --> 04:47:54,080
for example, we could gain the support of the landless

4816
04:47:54,080 --> 04:47:57,000
peasants by announcing our intention of carrying out a program

4817
04:47:57,080 --> 04:48:00,840
of agrarian reform. In West Africa, we could announce our

4818
04:48:00,880 --> 04:48:04,479
intention of increasing the prices paid to peasant producers by

4819
04:48:04,520 --> 04:48:08,360
the cocoa marketing brand. In Greece and Turkey, where there

4820
04:48:08,400 --> 04:48:11,439
is a heavy burden of agrarian indebtedness, we could announce

4821
04:48:11,479 --> 04:48:15,200
a general cancellation of bank debts. Each of these policy

4822
04:48:15,200 --> 04:48:17,880
announcements will bind the interests of a large and politically

4823
04:48:17,880 --> 04:48:20,959
powerful group to our government, unless we are overtaken by

4824
04:48:21,000 --> 04:48:24,000
other rival announcements. But it will also lead to the

4825
04:48:24,040 --> 04:48:26,759
hostility of other groups whose interests are damaged by our

4826
04:48:26,799 --> 04:48:31,319
intended policies. In Latin America, where the peasants would be

4827
04:48:31,319 --> 04:48:35,240
benefit would benefit, the landlords would lose. In Africa, the

4828
04:48:35,360 --> 04:48:38,479
urban population would be the loser. In Greece, the taxpayer

4829
04:48:38,479 --> 04:48:42,680
would bear the burden of agricultural debt relief. Thus, the

4830
04:48:42,720 --> 04:48:45,520
backing of one interest group will generally have at its

4831
04:48:46,439 --> 04:48:50,560
com commit the loss of support of or even actual

4832
04:48:50,560 --> 04:48:55,639
hostility from other groups. Clearly it will be a gud.

4833
04:48:56,240 --> 04:48:59,759
Speaker 2: Hence an effectively anti white Americans.

4834
04:49:02,119 --> 04:49:04,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's the backing of one interest group. We generally

4835
04:49:04,840 --> 04:49:07,400
have at its con commitment the loss is support of

4836
04:49:07,599 --> 04:49:08,400
or even hot yeah.

4837
04:49:08,880 --> 04:49:13,959
Speaker 2: Yeah, And it's why that this continued process has been.

4838
04:49:14,279 --> 04:49:16,200
Part of this in the last couple of years has

4839
04:49:16,240 --> 04:49:19,799
been the intentional purging of anybody who is to the

4840
04:49:19,919 --> 04:49:24,319
right of essentially George W. Bush from the American military.

4841
04:49:25,000 --> 04:49:28,000
There hasn't been an organized purge, but they're intentionally sidelining

4842
04:49:28,240 --> 04:49:31,000
any kind of senior officers who would appear to have

4843
04:49:31,040 --> 04:49:35,799
that kind of orientation. It's a way of furthering, you know,

4844
04:49:35,959 --> 04:49:40,200
their security because they know that the American military is

4845
04:49:40,360 --> 04:49:44,479
historically a very right wing, at least informally cultural institution,

4846
04:49:44,599 --> 04:49:47,159
and they know they're largely opposed to that, so they're

4847
04:49:47,159 --> 04:49:50,240
trying to remove an opposing center of power.

4848
04:49:51,400 --> 04:49:53,360
Speaker 1: What about NCOs and down right now.

4849
04:49:54,799 --> 04:49:57,080
Speaker 2: That becomes an issue. I don't really have a good

4850
04:49:57,119 --> 04:50:01,000
feeling on that. Keep in mind, senior sco is, like

4851
04:50:01,000 --> 04:50:03,840
the Serdain major level, basically go through the same level

4852
04:50:03,840 --> 04:50:08,560
of review as general officers. Keep in mind, then different

4853
04:50:09,200 --> 04:50:15,840
subcomponents of each service are very different. Increasingly, the regular

4854
04:50:15,919 --> 04:50:19,479
US Army is a full employment program for black women.

4855
04:50:23,840 --> 04:50:27,880
Speaker 1: I will continue and just let that hang. Clearly, it

4856
04:50:27,919 --> 04:50:31,119
will be necessary to estimate the net political support that

4857
04:50:31,159 --> 04:50:34,880
a given policy announcement will degenerate. This will mean taking

4858
04:50:34,919 --> 04:50:37,680
into account not only the political significance of each group,

4859
04:50:37,720 --> 04:50:41,119
but also the immediacy of its political power. In the

4860
04:50:41,159 --> 04:50:44,919
context of a Latin American post coup situation, for example,

4861
04:50:45,360 --> 04:50:48,000
the goodwill of remote and disperse peasants will not help

4862
04:50:48,080 --> 04:50:51,400
us much against the immediate and powerful opposition of bureaucratic

4863
04:50:51,439 --> 04:50:54,959
and military cadres. If, on the other hand, our short

4864
04:50:55,040 --> 04:50:57,240
term position is strong, but we are threatened by the

4865
04:50:57,319 --> 04:51:00,759
longer term usurpation of power on the part of our

4866
04:51:00,799 --> 04:51:04,040
military allies, our objective will be to create a counterweight

4867
04:51:04,119 --> 04:51:07,840
capable eventually of becoming a source of direct strength a

4868
04:51:07,840 --> 04:51:11,159
peasant's militia, for example. Thus, whether we opt out for

4869
04:51:11,200 --> 04:51:16,200
a left policy of land reform and longer Compassino support

4870
04:51:16,439 --> 04:51:19,599
or for our right policy of peasant repression and immediate

4871
04:51:19,680 --> 04:51:23,119
landowner support will depend on the balance between the strength

4872
04:51:23,159 --> 04:51:28,799
of our short and our long term positions. The almost

4873
04:51:28,799 --> 04:51:31,919
mechanical elements that are important in the special climate of

4874
04:51:31,959 --> 04:51:34,880
the immediate post coup period will distort the normal balance

4875
04:51:34,919 --> 04:51:38,959
between the political forces of the country concerned. If therefore

4876
04:51:39,240 --> 04:51:42,520
our short term position is not fragile, we should repress

4877
04:51:42,560 --> 04:51:45,639
the agitation of those forces that possess a disproportion of

4878
04:51:45,720 --> 04:51:49,279
strength in the short term, and concentrate instead on cultivating

4879
04:51:49,279 --> 04:51:52,279
the support of those groups whose longer term strength is

4880
04:51:52,319 --> 04:51:56,880
far greater. An element in our strategy. After the coup

4881
04:51:56,959 --> 04:52:00,520
is halfway between the information and the political campaign. The

4882
04:52:00,599 --> 04:52:06,520
problem of legitimizing the coup. Clearly, the coup is by

4883
04:52:06,560 --> 04:52:11,200
definition illegal, but whether this illegality matters and whether it

4884
04:52:11,240 --> 04:52:15,080
is possible to counteract its effects, will depend on the

4885
04:52:15,119 --> 04:52:17,959
total political environment of the country in question.

4886
04:52:19,080 --> 04:52:21,840
Speaker 2: Reminded that the United States of America as a product

4887
04:52:21,880 --> 04:52:26,560
of two coups in a row, the secession from the

4888
04:52:26,680 --> 04:52:30,439
United Kingdom followed by the overthrower of the Articles of

4889
04:52:30,520 --> 04:52:34,599
Confederation for a constitution, which means, if you win very often,

4890
04:52:34,639 --> 04:52:38,919
you can legitimate, legitimate what you've done, and the fact

4891
04:52:38,919 --> 04:52:40,919
that it was illegal nobody's really going to care about.

4892
04:52:44,799 --> 04:52:46,439
Speaker 1: We have seen in chapter two that in much of

4893
04:52:46,479 --> 04:52:48,759
the world, except for the rule of law countries, the

4894
04:52:48,840 --> 04:52:52,080
legitimacy or lack of legitimacy of the government will not

4895
04:52:52,240 --> 04:52:56,520
matter greatly. For example, as of twenty fifteen, Italy is

4896
04:52:56,599 --> 04:53:00,319
ruled by Matteo Renzi's government, whose ministers included young and

4897
04:53:00,360 --> 04:53:06,080
attractive female parliamentarians of his own Partzo Democratico, as well

4898
04:53:06,119 --> 04:53:11,639
as defectors from the forsa Fortza Italia party of Silvi Berlosconi,

4899
04:53:12,000 --> 04:53:15,560
who also promoted female parliamentarians so long as they were pretty,

4900
04:53:15,919 --> 04:53:19,639
and members of several minor parties, giving Renzi a total

4901
04:53:19,639 --> 04:53:22,240
of three hundred and ninety five seats out of six

4902
04:53:22,400 --> 04:53:26,439
thirty enough to rule, but all were elected along with

4903
04:53:26,520 --> 04:53:29,840
Renzi himself in twenty thirteen, when his party was headed

4904
04:53:29,880 --> 04:53:34,439
by Pierre Luigi Bersani, not Renzi. In fact, Renzi only

4905
04:53:34,439 --> 04:53:36,919
became the head of government by winning an internal party

4906
04:53:36,959 --> 04:53:42,479
primary and then cutting a deal with Berlusconi. Essentially, Italians

4907
04:53:42,560 --> 04:53:44,759
ended up being ruled by a politician whom they never

4908
04:53:44,880 --> 04:53:46,840
elected except as parliamentarian.

4909
04:53:47,560 --> 04:53:53,319
Speaker 2: But good, no, it sounds pretty, you know, pretty appropriate,

4910
04:53:53,439 --> 04:53:56,840
pretty much our situation at the moment, since we're probably

4911
04:53:56,840 --> 04:54:00,360
about seven percent chance because of fortification. I was just

4912
04:54:00,400 --> 04:54:02,040
going to say the fact he keeps harping on the

4913
04:54:02,040 --> 04:54:06,400
fact they would only let female parliamentarians in who are attractive,

4914
04:54:06,560 --> 04:54:09,439
and that's got to be some Israeli projection, just considering

4915
04:54:09,560 --> 04:54:12,080
their successful women politicians have not.

4916
04:54:12,200 --> 04:54:19,360
Speaker 1: Been Yeah, you tell me, gold in my ear wasn't

4917
04:54:19,360 --> 04:54:19,759
a looker.

4918
04:54:22,400 --> 04:54:23,479
Speaker 2: It speaks for itself.

4919
04:54:26,599 --> 04:54:29,360
Speaker 1: But this in itself generates oppositions to the young and

4920
04:54:29,439 --> 04:54:34,119
personal Wrenzi. First, what Renzi did as is allowed by

4921
04:54:34,119 --> 04:54:36,959
the constitutional system in place, even though it allows a

4922
04:54:37,000 --> 04:54:42,880
post electoral primary that leaves most Italians unrepresented. Besides, in Italy,

4923
04:54:43,439 --> 04:54:47,360
legality is in any case optional, especially in politics, with

4924
04:54:47,439 --> 04:54:51,439
contempt for the law, much intensified by the transparently politicized

4925
04:54:51,479 --> 04:54:55,919
persecution of prosecutions of Italian magistrates who openly consort in

4926
04:54:55,959 --> 04:55:02,159
political groupings of their own, notably the left wing Magi Democratica.

4927
04:55:02,599 --> 04:55:05,200
As far as we are concerned, Italy is definitely not

4928
04:55:05,319 --> 04:55:08,279
a rule of law country, and our illegitimacy will be

4929
04:55:08,319 --> 04:55:12,319
easily swallowed if all else is in place. They're never

4930
04:55:12,360 --> 04:55:13,639
going to forgive Titus are.

4931
04:55:13,560 --> 04:55:18,119
Speaker 2: The Oh well, what I was saying, increasingly the the

4932
04:55:18,240 --> 04:55:18,919
United States?

4933
04:55:20,159 --> 04:55:22,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, oh yeah, so much of this right here. And

4934
04:55:22,479 --> 04:55:25,319
even when he goes up here, when he says, you know,

4935
04:55:25,360 --> 04:55:27,599
they were never elected and everything, I mean, that's just

4936
04:55:27,639 --> 04:55:32,759
the administrative state. It's just different here. It's much bigger

4937
04:55:32,799 --> 04:55:35,599
and much more spread out here. And yeah, I know,

4938
04:55:35,639 --> 04:55:38,560
a lot of people have tried to describe our government

4939
04:55:38,720 --> 04:55:43,720
as being highly centralized, and I think it's just highly decentralized.

4940
04:55:43,759 --> 04:55:45,560
You have no idea who's in charge.

4941
04:55:45,959 --> 04:55:49,400
Speaker 2: Elements of it are yeah even then right like a

4942
04:55:49,520 --> 04:55:55,119
formally hierarchy state. One of the things I've heard those

4943
04:55:55,200 --> 04:55:58,319
described as is polyarchies, where yeah, you have a central

4944
04:55:58,560 --> 04:56:00,919
authority figure who can over rule a lot of things.

4945
04:56:02,360 --> 04:56:04,479
But even if they have the effective ability to make

4946
04:56:04,520 --> 04:56:07,919
an exception, understand, the human attention is finite, so they

4947
04:56:07,919 --> 04:56:10,360
can only focus energy on so many things at once.

4948
04:56:10,479 --> 04:56:14,959
So huge elements of a large bureaucratic state are going

4949
04:56:15,000 --> 04:56:18,639
to be effectively decentralized to a lower level, even if

4950
04:56:18,680 --> 04:56:21,799
they're authoritarian, just because that's the reality of, you know,

4951
04:56:22,400 --> 04:56:23,439
human concentration.

4952
04:56:27,439 --> 04:56:30,439
Speaker 1: One way of legitimizing the post to whop government has

4953
04:56:30,479 --> 04:56:32,799
already been mentioned in the discussion of the selection of

4954
04:56:32,799 --> 04:56:35,880
the personalities to be arrested the retention of the nominal

4955
04:56:35,919 --> 04:56:39,200
head of state where such a constitutional role exists as

4956
04:56:39,319 --> 04:56:45,040
our own highly nominal head of state as well, just.

4957
04:56:46,439 --> 04:56:50,319
Speaker 2: To point out again, we know about monarchies most of

4958
04:56:50,360 --> 04:56:54,959
Western Europe as parliamentary states, the monarch's head of state,

4959
04:56:55,240 --> 04:56:57,560
but they're not head of government, and the amount of

4960
04:56:57,599 --> 04:57:01,959
authority varies from state to state, and you know, so

4961
04:57:02,159 --> 04:57:04,520
they're relative. So we tend to think of as monarchs

4962
04:57:04,560 --> 04:57:07,759
as being powerless, even though very often they have more

4963
04:57:07,799 --> 04:57:11,080
power than they exercise on a daily basis, which is

4964
04:57:11,080 --> 04:57:13,599
why there can be borderline civil wars in the twentieth

4965
04:57:13,599 --> 04:57:16,959
century when they actually did what they were allowed to do.

4966
04:57:17,360 --> 04:57:20,080
But keep in mind a parliamentary state that's a republic,

4967
04:57:20,119 --> 04:57:23,840
you will have a president as head of state along

4968
04:57:23,880 --> 04:57:26,119
with the prime minister that's head of government. But in

4969
04:57:26,159 --> 04:57:29,799
most of those states, the president is a meaningless title,

4970
04:57:29,840 --> 04:57:32,880
and usually it's where you put a retired politician who's

4971
04:57:33,520 --> 04:57:36,840
you know, lucid enough that he continued to receive you know,

4972
04:57:37,799 --> 04:57:40,479
state envoys and stuff and shake hands, but doesn't actually

4973
04:57:40,680 --> 04:57:42,880
have to do anything and is very often not allowed

4974
04:57:42,919 --> 04:57:45,279
to do anything on a routine basis.

4975
04:57:46,279 --> 04:57:51,479
Speaker 1: From what I understand, the British system still allows for

4976
04:57:52,439 --> 04:57:57,159
the monarchy to dissolve the parliament. The parliament at any

4977
04:57:57,159 --> 04:57:58,560
time and it takes over.

4978
04:57:58,880 --> 04:58:02,119
Speaker 2: It does, and well they're required within X number of

4979
04:58:02,200 --> 04:58:04,599
days to actually call for an election and to also

4980
04:58:04,880 --> 04:58:08,200
put in a cabinet in the interim, so they don't

4981
04:58:08,240 --> 04:58:10,119
get to rule by personal rule for more than a

4982
04:58:10,159 --> 04:58:12,680
couple of weeks. But yes, they do have the authority.

4983
04:58:14,159 --> 04:58:17,319
Was it Margaret Thatcher, you know famously everybody calls her,

4984
04:58:17,439 --> 04:58:20,159
you know, crazy because she asked Queen Elizabeth to do that.

4985
04:58:20,560 --> 04:58:22,639
But keep in mind, was it ten twelve years before

4986
04:58:22,680 --> 04:58:27,959
that Elizabeth dissolved the parliament in Australia and calls for election.

4987
04:58:28,080 --> 04:58:31,240
So it's something that's happened, not in mine, in your lifetime,

4988
04:58:31,360 --> 04:58:36,439
definitely in the lifetime of our parents. And again it

4989
04:58:36,479 --> 04:58:39,159
depends from monarchy to monarchy, with some of these actually

4990
04:58:39,200 --> 04:58:42,360
having huge amounts of authority in the field of where

4991
04:58:42,360 --> 04:58:44,000
the military is concerned, to believe it or not.

4992
04:58:47,159 --> 04:58:50,080
Speaker 1: In this way, the appearance of continuity will be maintained

4993
04:58:50,080 --> 04:58:53,119
and with it an appearance of legitimacy. Where the head

4994
04:58:53,119 --> 04:58:56,200
of state is not nominal as in presidential regimes, other

4995
04:58:56,279 --> 04:58:59,080
taxings will have to be used, the announcement of forthcoming

4996
04:58:59,119 --> 04:59:03,279
elections or ferendum as a sort of expost facto legitimization,

4997
04:59:03,919 --> 04:59:07,400
or alternatively, the coup can be openly admitted as an

4998
04:59:07,400 --> 04:59:12,400
extra constitutional intervention, but one made against an unconstitutional regime.

4999
04:59:13,479 --> 04:59:15,560
One actuility we have.

5000
04:59:15,520 --> 04:59:17,880
Speaker 2: To eliminate order to preserve democracy.

5001
04:59:19,119 --> 04:59:21,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that's basically what this is. I mean,

5002
04:59:21,639 --> 04:59:27,200
it's we've seen this. We if we haven't seen this action,

5003
04:59:27,479 --> 04:59:29,720
we've definitely seen this rhetoric in our lifetimes.

5004
04:59:30,159 --> 04:59:31,919
Speaker 2: I think we've seen everything except for the use of

5005
04:59:32,040 --> 04:59:35,000
armed force. So everything but that last step of a

5006
04:59:35,080 --> 04:59:37,799
coup we've seen defact to occur in our lifetimes.

5007
04:59:39,680 --> 04:59:43,520
Speaker 1: One illegality will then be represented as being the cause

5008
04:59:43,560 --> 04:59:46,000
of the other. But we shall declare that whereas the

5009
04:59:46,040 --> 04:59:49,080
illegality of the pre coup regime was voluntary and permanent,

5010
04:59:49,400 --> 04:59:55,360
only ours is necessary and temporary. Such techniques, such techniques

5011
04:59:55,400 --> 04:59:58,479
will be of limited value in conducting the political processes

5012
04:59:58,520 --> 05:00:01,319
required to create a base of active support and to

5013
05:00:01,360 --> 05:00:04,639
secure our authority, because everything will depend on the specific

5014
05:00:04,680 --> 05:00:09,799
political environment in which we shall be operating. One particular problem, however,

5015
05:00:10,119 --> 05:00:14,799
requires further exploration recognition by foreign powers.

5016
05:00:15,080 --> 05:00:18,000
Speaker 2: Before we go too far. I was going to definitely

5017
05:00:18,000 --> 05:00:20,880
emphasize the idea that of a coup expressing itself is

5018
05:00:21,000 --> 05:00:25,119
necessary and temporary. Interestingly, and not enough in effective coups.

5019
05:00:25,200 --> 05:00:26,880
Very often that is the case. One of the things

5020
05:00:26,880 --> 05:00:31,599
that's been brought up about military governments after following a

5021
05:00:31,639 --> 05:00:35,360
military coup, a coup is effective, very often one of

5022
05:00:35,439 --> 05:00:39,279
the first things the military sets about doing that transfer

5023
05:00:39,279 --> 05:00:41,639
doesn't happen immediately is going back to some kind of

5024
05:00:42,200 --> 05:00:47,000
civilian rule, professionally, some kind of semi democratic constitutional rule.

5025
05:00:47,080 --> 05:00:50,720
Because the act of actually running a state on a

5026
05:00:50,799 --> 05:00:53,080
day to day basis where you have to take the

5027
05:00:53,119 --> 05:00:54,759
best in the brightest side of the military and put

5028
05:00:54,840 --> 05:00:57,119
them in charge of things like trash pick up and

5029
05:00:57,200 --> 05:01:00,639
making sure that you know, the sanitation system work, is

5030
05:01:00,680 --> 05:01:03,840
it undermines and degrades the ability of that military to

5031
05:01:03,880 --> 05:01:07,119
fight because suddenly all of its leadership is more consumed

5032
05:01:07,279 --> 05:01:10,759
with things like, you know, making the mail service run

5033
05:01:10,840 --> 05:01:12,639
instead of preparing for war in the future.

5034
05:01:16,040 --> 05:01:20,759
Speaker 1: All right, So the talking about the problem of recognition

5035
05:01:20,840 --> 05:01:24,279
my foreign powers, this is almost always important, but for

5036
05:01:24,360 --> 05:01:29,840
the poorest countries who pays real? What is that? Are

5037
05:01:29,840 --> 05:01:30,799
you familiar with that term?

5038
05:01:31,439 --> 05:01:35,720
Speaker 2: Pays real? I pays real. It's a French term. I

5039
05:01:35,720 --> 05:01:36,360
can look it up.

5040
05:01:37,360 --> 05:01:39,599
Speaker 1: No, it's this is let's see what we can do

5041
05:01:39,639 --> 05:01:41,880
it in context. This is almost always important. But for

5042
05:01:41,919 --> 05:01:45,319
the poorest countries whose pays reel lies outside their home borders.

5043
05:01:45,319 --> 05:01:51,959
It will be a crucial problem, I would assume. Yeah,

5044
05:01:52,000 --> 05:01:53,080
let's look that up real quick.

5045
05:01:53,119 --> 05:02:01,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm looking up now, Oh country it was Okay,

5046
05:02:02,279 --> 05:02:06,200
that was the name of a newspaper. That was Maral's

5047
05:02:06,200 --> 05:02:08,880
newspaper also, but that's probably not what he's referring to.

5048
05:02:13,439 --> 05:02:25,360
Speaker 1: Real country, legal country.

5049
05:02:24,000 --> 05:02:28,880
Speaker 2: Converse, Oh, real country over the legal country. I would

5050
05:02:28,880 --> 05:02:33,119
have to look. I'm guessing it's the case of where

5051
05:02:33,119 --> 05:02:37,560
the cultural and ethnic and national ties are. Yeah, definition

5052
05:02:37,680 --> 05:02:40,639
of a you know, a community may not be co

5053
05:02:40,799 --> 05:02:44,040
terminous with the state, which is a huge issue at

5054
05:02:44,080 --> 05:02:46,439
least in the Western Europe. Definitely huge issue in Africa

5055
05:02:46,479 --> 05:02:51,080
where certain ethnic groups like Swedes and Fans cross both borders.

5056
05:02:51,119 --> 05:02:56,439
So the question of you know, one of the issues

5057
05:02:56,479 --> 05:02:58,840
is you don't necessarily take control of a people when

5058
05:02:58,840 --> 05:03:01,000
you take control of their company country, because you know

5059
05:03:01,040 --> 05:03:03,479
a huge portion of their population lives right across the

5060
05:03:03,520 --> 05:03:05,759
border and has effectively lived there forever.

5061
05:03:07,200 --> 05:03:11,400
Speaker 1: Right, Okay, gotcha. When much of the available disposable funds

5062
05:03:11,439 --> 05:03:17,319
come from foreign aid, both official and via non governmental organizations,

5063
05:03:17,479 --> 05:03:21,759
and when foreign cadres carry out vital administration, technical, and

5064
05:03:21,799 --> 05:03:24,959
sometimes even military functions, the maintenance of good relations with

5065
05:03:25,000 --> 05:03:28,360
the particular donor country or country is concerned may well

5066
05:03:28,360 --> 05:03:31,759
be a determining factor in our political survival after the coup.

5067
05:03:32,080 --> 05:03:33,799
Are they talking about Ukraine here.

5068
05:03:35,880 --> 05:03:38,680
Speaker 2: Twenty sixteen? He might be, but that would probably be

5069
05:03:38,720 --> 05:03:42,599
too early. Keep in mind, yeah, yeah, is living as

5070
05:03:42,680 --> 05:03:46,520
a strategic forecast or often the service to the United States,

5071
05:03:46,560 --> 05:03:49,360
So he's not necessarily going to be that blunt about

5072
05:03:49,479 --> 05:03:51,279
American mistakes.

5073
05:03:51,439 --> 05:03:56,119
Speaker 1: Correct Premature recognition by a foreign power, i e. Recognition

5074
05:03:56,200 --> 05:03:59,000
granted while the old regime still retains some degree of

5075
05:03:59,000 --> 05:04:02,759
control is becoming regarded as a form of aggression in

5076
05:04:02,759 --> 05:04:07,599
international law. Beyond that, however, recognition is usually granted even

5077
05:04:07,639 --> 05:04:11,040
to very illegitimate governments after a polite interval, if there

5078
05:04:11,040 --> 05:04:16,240
are convincing assurances about their continuity in terms of foreign relations.

5079
05:04:16,840 --> 05:04:20,400
These assurances are conveyed simply and publicly by formal announcements

5080
05:04:20,439 --> 05:04:23,799
stating that membership and alliances and groupings will be maintained,

5081
05:04:24,240 --> 05:04:27,599
that foreign agreements and obligations will be respected, and that

5082
05:04:27,680 --> 05:04:32,360
legitimate foreign interests in the country concern will not be harmed. Thus,

5083
05:04:32,439 --> 05:04:37,360
the leaders of Ghana's well named National Liberation Council, formed

5084
05:04:37,400 --> 05:04:43,319
after the overthrow of the historic independence leader Nukuma Kruma

5085
05:04:44,240 --> 05:04:47,560
announced that Ghana would retain her membership in the Commonwealth,

5086
05:04:47,720 --> 05:04:50,759
the Organization of African Unity, and the United Nations, and

5087
05:04:50,799 --> 05:04:58,119
would respect all obligations assumed by Kruma's regime. Similarly, Arab

5088
05:04:58,200 --> 05:05:01,000
post coup regimes habitually an anounced that they will remain

5089
05:05:01,080 --> 05:05:03,799
in the Arab League, and Latin American regimes pledged to

5090
05:05:03,840 --> 05:05:07,799
remain members of the Organization of American States. Far more

5091
05:05:07,840 --> 05:05:11,279
important than these declarations is a considerable diplomatic activity that

5092
05:05:11,319 --> 05:05:14,240
will take place after the coup and sometimes even before it.

5093
05:05:15,080 --> 05:05:18,000
The purpose of these diplomatic exchanges will be to clarify

5094
05:05:18,040 --> 05:05:22,040
the political situation and nowadays to indicate or to dissemble

5095
05:05:22,599 --> 05:05:26,799
the ideological orientation of the planners of the coup. Most

5096
05:05:26,799 --> 05:05:30,119
countries of the world follow British diplomatic doctrine in granting

5097
05:05:30,159 --> 05:05:32,880
recognition to regimes on the basis of their effective control

5098
05:05:32,919 --> 05:05:37,000
of their territories, if only after a decent interval. At present,

5099
05:05:37,080 --> 05:05:41,880
the rapidly Islamist akp government of Turkey opposes the overthrow

5100
05:05:41,919 --> 05:05:45,560
of Ejus Islamist government by the armed forces, fearing that

5101
05:05:45,639 --> 05:05:48,639
Turkey's armed forces might do the same, but does not

5102
05:05:48,720 --> 05:05:50,119
withhold recognition.

5103
05:05:50,639 --> 05:05:54,520
Speaker 2: Turkey is a history of overthrowing the military overthrowing their government.

5104
05:05:55,959 --> 05:05:58,919
Speaker 1: In any case, the doctrine of effective control is as

5105
05:05:58,959 --> 05:06:03,959
flexible as deafenie as definitions of control, so that recognition

5106
05:06:04,040 --> 05:06:08,080
can sometimes be flexible if the pre coup regime retains

5107
05:06:08,119 --> 05:06:11,799
even a tenuous hold over some part of the national territory.

5108
05:06:13,000 --> 05:06:15,000
I was going to sit in a good sorry.

5109
05:06:15,200 --> 05:06:15,439
Speaker 7: Yeah.

5110
05:06:15,479 --> 05:06:18,959
Speaker 2: One of the funny examples of this is the Spanish

5111
05:06:19,040 --> 05:06:22,520
Civil War. You know most of the world except the

5112
05:06:22,560 --> 05:06:26,439
Franco regime as being the legitimate government of Spain within

5113
05:06:26,479 --> 05:06:29,000
a couple of years of winning. But if you didn't,

5114
05:06:29,200 --> 05:06:35,360
and the communist Republicans of Spain continue to maintain recognized

5115
05:06:35,400 --> 05:06:39,759
embassies in foreign countries like Mexico into I don't remember

5116
05:06:39,799 --> 05:06:41,520
what it was. It was like twenty or thirty years

5117
05:06:41,560 --> 05:06:43,439
after that. I think it was until the sixties in

5118
05:06:43,439 --> 05:06:44,040
some places.

5119
05:06:46,799 --> 05:06:48,799
Speaker 1: How shocked I am that would have been Mexico.

5120
05:06:50,000 --> 05:06:53,319
Speaker 2: Yeah.

5121
05:06:53,400 --> 05:06:56,759
Speaker 1: After the necessary exchanges of information and assurances, the new

5122
05:06:56,799 --> 05:07:00,000
government will usually be recognized. This will occur even if

5123
05:07:00,119 --> 05:07:02,959
his illegality as an embarrassment, as in the case of

5124
05:07:02,959 --> 05:07:05,919
the United states and Latin American coups, or if its

5125
05:07:05,919 --> 05:07:10,240
ideological orientation, it's distasteful, as in the Ghanian and Indonesian

5126
05:07:10,279 --> 05:07:15,639
coups were for the Soviet Union at the time. Prolonged

5127
05:07:16,080 --> 05:07:19,319
non recognition is a rarity. One example was the widespread

5128
05:07:19,319 --> 05:07:27,759
refusal to recognize Madagascar's hot authority de la Transition. I'm

5129
05:07:27,840 --> 05:07:33,040
assuming that that's French, but my French pronunciation is just awful.

5130
05:07:33,599 --> 05:07:38,319
Speaker 2: The average person Madagascar does not speak proper French anyways.

5131
05:07:39,520 --> 05:07:43,279
Speaker 1: Which came to power and Madagascar didn't they dodge a

5132
05:07:43,319 --> 05:07:49,360
bullet which time, yeah, yeah, in the nineteen forties, they

5133
05:07:49,439 --> 05:07:53,080
really dodged a bullet which came to power by force

5134
05:07:53,119 --> 05:07:55,520
in two thousand and nine and did not organize elections

5135
05:07:55,639 --> 05:07:58,919
till the end of twenty thirteen. It did, however, restore

5136
05:07:59,240 --> 05:08:04,240
democratic rules in twenty fourteen. Diplomatic recognition is one of

5137
05:08:04,240 --> 05:08:07,119
the elements in the general process of establishing the authority

5138
05:08:07,159 --> 05:08:09,759
of the new government. Until this is achieved, we will

5139
05:08:09,799 --> 05:08:12,479
have to rely on the brittle instruments of physical coercion,

5140
05:08:12,799 --> 05:08:16,080
and our position will be vulnerable to many threats, including

5141
05:08:16,159 --> 05:08:22,639
that of another coup de eta. And that is it,

5142
05:08:22,959 --> 05:08:26,119
and it's It's amazing how if any if there's a

5143
05:08:26,159 --> 05:08:31,919
coupdeta in one country, how it's almost like by magic,

5144
05:08:32,040 --> 05:08:36,680
they would be very apt to have another one happen

5145
05:08:37,119 --> 05:08:38,119
and pretty soon.

5146
05:08:38,400 --> 05:08:41,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, and again that's part of the issue. Once you

5147
05:08:41,279 --> 05:08:43,400
you break the seal, as it were, as soon as

5148
05:08:43,400 --> 05:08:45,520
you make it acceptable to have one, you've made it

5149
05:08:45,560 --> 05:08:49,279
acceptable to have another one. So that's again that's a

5150
05:08:49,360 --> 05:08:52,680
huge part of why legitimizing what you're doing afterwards is

5151
05:08:52,759 --> 05:08:54,959
such a go you know, such an important part. It

5152
05:08:55,000 --> 05:08:58,680
also goes further to explaining why in an effective military coup,

5153
05:08:58,799 --> 05:09:01,560
you know, they want to get out of the governance

5154
05:09:01,680 --> 05:09:03,520
business when they can.

5155
05:09:05,599 --> 05:09:05,919
Speaker 3: Hm.

5156
05:09:07,400 --> 05:09:11,400
Speaker 1: Well, I appreciate you recommending this and joining me because

5157
05:09:11,919 --> 05:09:14,159
I just there's a lot of books that I can

5158
05:09:14,200 --> 05:09:16,840
read that I have the I have the knowledge and

5159
05:09:16,919 --> 05:09:21,200
the backgrounds and comments upon. But the historical knowledge that

5160
05:09:21,360 --> 05:09:25,919
yourself and Darryl for one episode and Lafayette for one

5161
05:09:25,919 --> 05:09:30,400
episode brought, but you for all the other episodes. I

5162
05:09:30,400 --> 05:09:31,360
think it's invaluable.

5163
05:09:31,759 --> 05:09:33,799
Speaker 2: Sin Batch and Dark Enlightenment as well.

5164
05:09:34,080 --> 05:09:39,840
Speaker 1: Oh a, Sam Batchan's Dark Enlightenment. Yeah. Yeah, through that episode,

5165
05:09:39,840 --> 05:09:41,799
I had a lot of people reach out wanting to

5166
05:09:43,520 --> 05:09:46,479
recognizing what was happening and wanted to say, hi, just

5167
05:09:47,040 --> 05:09:50,360
and that's cool, say that you know, they appreciate you,

5168
05:09:50,959 --> 05:09:53,159
appreciate you, each one of you individually.

5169
05:09:53,439 --> 05:09:55,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I appreciate it. And like I said in the beginning,

5170
05:09:55,599 --> 05:09:57,880
I mean, part of it's just the uh the fact

5171
05:09:57,959 --> 05:10:01,639
is it disabled veteran that they kept paying for college.

5172
05:10:01,680 --> 05:10:04,439
So I kept going, especially since very often they paid

5173
05:10:04,439 --> 05:10:06,240
me more money and my day, you know, as a

5174
05:10:06,240 --> 05:10:08,479
stipend than what I would make my daily pay. So

5175
05:10:08,799 --> 05:10:11,400
I'm glad somebody's getting some value out of my higher education.

5176
05:10:13,840 --> 05:10:17,000
Speaker 1: All right, Well, I appreciate it, and I'll have you

5177
05:10:17,040 --> 05:10:19,479
back on real soon to do this again. Good, I

5178
05:10:19,520 --> 05:10:21,439
have you back on soon. Have you back on soon

5179
05:10:21,479 --> 05:10:24,200
to do something other than a reading. Let's talk about

5180
05:10:24,240 --> 05:10:26,040
you know, let's have you back on and talk about

5181
05:10:26,080 --> 05:10:27,759
some uh, some real stuff.

5182
05:10:27,880 --> 05:10:29,639
Speaker 2: Yeah. Probably have to talk to Thomas and see how

5183
05:10:29,680 --> 05:10:31,560
much we can go down rabbit holes at some point.

5184
05:10:34,200 --> 05:10:36,360
Speaker 1: All right, John, appreciate it, Thank you, Hey, Tom bro