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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to apply to save America. I'm Jon Favrea.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Dan Pfeiffer.

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<v Speaker 1>Dan, what do you think of our new studio?

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<v Speaker 2>I can only see you and four feet to your

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<v Speaker 2>right and left. Oh there I go.

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<v Speaker 1>You had you didn't watch all of Tuesday's pod on YouTube.

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<v Speaker 2>I know I listened to it like like it's like

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<v Speaker 2>the gen xer, I am. What's what's to your left?

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<v Speaker 2>Is that a statue liberty?

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, there's a statue of liberty?

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<v Speaker 2>Or right, it's you're right, I guess.

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<v Speaker 1>And then there's an eagle over there because we are

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<v Speaker 1>we are taking patriotism back where liberals who love.

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<v Speaker 2>America one yellow mural at a time.

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<v Speaker 1>That's right. Well, anyway, you've got to get down here

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<v Speaker 1>so you can test out the new studio yourself. You

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<v Speaker 1>and I have a bunch of news to talk about today.

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<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump's approval ratings are at record lows, and he

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<v Speaker 1>is losing his grip on the economy, the war, just

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<v Speaker 1>about everything else Americans care about. And yet here we

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<v Speaker 1>are still Democrats get more good news in the key

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<v Speaker 1>Senate races in North Carolina, in Georgia, and maybe even

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<v Speaker 1>some deep red states where independent candidates are carrying the

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<v Speaker 1>anti MAGA banner. We're also in the home stretch of

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<v Speaker 1>the heated primaries in Michigan and Wisconsin. We're going to

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<v Speaker 1>talk all about that. That's fun. We're also going to

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<v Speaker 1>talk about the latest with artificial intelligence. As Sam Altman

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<v Speaker 1>tells us that we are, in fact in the singularity.

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<v Speaker 1>Elon Musk is saying that we're all going to die anyway,

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<v Speaker 1>and nobody on Capitol Hill seems to know what to

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<v Speaker 1>do about it. So that's cool. But first a reminder,

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<v Speaker 1>if we do make it to November, and we do

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<v Speaker 1>make it to these midterm elections and AI hasn't killed

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<v Speaker 1>us all yet, we have Cricket Con November fifth through

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<v Speaker 1>the seventh in Washington, d C. And tickets are going

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<v Speaker 1>pretty fast, pretty fast, So you are going to want

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<v Speaker 1>to get a ticket to kirket Con if you haven't

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<v Speaker 1>already gotten yours yet. We're going to be announcing all

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<v Speaker 1>kinds of fun things in the lead up to Cricket Con, Guests, creators,

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<v Speaker 1>everyone else who's coming, and so you can check out

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<v Speaker 1>all the details, grab your tickets at crikeedcn dot com.

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<v Speaker 1>Friends at the Pod subscribers get a special discounted rate,

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<v Speaker 1>and if you're not a subscriber yet, that's just another

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<v Speaker 1>benefit for signing up today. Once again, that's crookedcn dot

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<v Speaker 1>com and we will see you all in DC from

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<v Speaker 1>November fifth through the seventh. All right, let's get to

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<v Speaker 1>the news. With ninety five days until the final midterm

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<v Speaker 1>elections of the Trump era, the president has made himself

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<v Speaker 1>historically unpopular and is dragging his party down with him.

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<v Speaker 1>He has lost control of the Iran war, which is

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<v Speaker 1>now in its fifth month with no end in sight.

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<v Speaker 1>He has lost control of the economy, which is now

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<v Speaker 1>suffering from sluggish growth and high inflation because of Trump's

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<v Speaker 1>war and Trump's tariffs. He has lost control of his

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<v Speaker 1>own part in Congress, where two Republican senators whose careers

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<v Speaker 1>he ended are still refusing to confirm his acting Attorney General,

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<v Speaker 1>Todd blanche whose nomination Trump says he may temporarily withdraw.

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<v Speaker 1>The president has also lost the American people his approval

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<v Speaker 1>rating in three high quality polls that came out this

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<v Speaker 1>week thirty two, thirty three percent, and thirty four percent,

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<v Speaker 1>near record lows for Trump in either term, which I

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<v Speaker 1>can't really understand because the guy has really been on

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<v Speaker 1>top of his game lately. Here he is on Wednesday.

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<v Speaker 3>Whether you're a Republican or Democrat, you don't want to

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<v Speaker 3>go and be subjected to this airport between the trams

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<v Speaker 3>and the Star Wars thing that they go up to

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<v Speaker 3>Star Wars and elevated buses and nobody knows what's going on.

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<v Speaker 3>It's it's a real mess. Anytime you see windmills, you

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<v Speaker 3>see a failing country, and they made in China, not

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<v Speaker 3>used by China, but they're made in China. I think

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<v Speaker 3>the arc is going to be incredible. I think the

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<v Speaker 3>protected ballroom and military center that we're building at the

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<v Speaker 3>White House is going to be Unbelievable's very important general.

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<v Speaker 3>Grass is like human beings. Grass is a life also,

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<v Speaker 3>and we're changing, we're raking, cleaning and changing all of

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<v Speaker 3>the parks.

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<v Speaker 1>Grass has a life also. Dan who was talking about

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<v Speaker 1>Dallas there there he's renovating Dolls Airport and for any

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<v Speaker 1>of you who've been to Dallas, might be the one renovation,

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<v Speaker 1>the one Trump renovation I'm supporting.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I agree with that Dallas is Non America's best airport.

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<v Speaker 2>So we're not putting our best foot forward. There A

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<v Speaker 2>weird elevated buses. Thing is are terrible. He has correct

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<v Speaker 2>about that, but it is you can renovate Dollas Airport

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<v Speaker 2>without doing a full prece event on it, which he

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<v Speaker 2>is doing at a time of war. Countries maybe suddenly

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<v Speaker 2>asked backward into stagflation, and he takes time out of

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<v Speaker 2>his busy day to detail the blueprints of a twenty

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<v Speaker 2>two billion dollar airport renovation.

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<v Speaker 1>He had, Yeah, he had a large map, he had

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<v Speaker 1>a laser pointer. He was Meanwhile, meanwhile, Iran struck a

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<v Speaker 1>US base in Jordan. And then Trump told Fox News,

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<v Speaker 1>We're going to fucking beat the shit out of them,

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<v Speaker 1>but also we're going to have room to keep talking

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<v Speaker 1>the war. The war has widened now to Saudi Arabia

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<v Speaker 1>is involved, Saudi Arabia in the US are jointly launching

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<v Speaker 1>strikes at militias in Iraq. I mean, it's completely fucking

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<v Speaker 1>out of control. And then the headline on Thursday we

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<v Speaker 1>woke up this morning was GDP last quarter was only

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<v Speaker 1>one point five percent, well under expectations, and inflation is

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<v Speaker 1>still a full point over the Fed's target rate, which

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<v Speaker 1>is why the Fed did not give Donald Trump the

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<v Speaker 1>rate cut he's been hoping for when they met this week.

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<v Speaker 1>So the economy is just humming along Dan.

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<v Speaker 2>And thinking of raesing rates again to curb inflation. Look,

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<v Speaker 2>you want ideally you want low inflation, high growth. Sometimes

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<v Speaker 2>you have high inflation high growth. The economy is running

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<v Speaker 2>too hot. Here we have high inflation, low growth. That's

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<v Speaker 2>the worst case scenario.

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<v Speaker 1>That is the worst case inn and that might have

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<v Speaker 1>something to do with those approval ratings down in the

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<v Speaker 1>low thirties. All right, let's start with Todd Blanche. So

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<v Speaker 1>John Cornyn and Tom Tillis asked Blanche for a written,

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<v Speaker 1>permanent commitment that the DOJ would kill two provisions in

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<v Speaker 1>Trump's Irs settlement. Remember that the one point eight billion

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<v Speaker 1>dollar insurrectionist slush fund and effective immunity for Trump, his family,

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<v Speaker 1>and his businesses for any tax crimes that they may

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<v Speaker 1>have committed. Those are the two deals that Trump gave

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<v Speaker 1>himself for suing his own government that he leads. And

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<v Speaker 1>basically Blanche was like, yeah, sure, we'll do that, and

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<v Speaker 1>they're like, all right, put it in writing, and he's like, nah,

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<v Speaker 1>they put some language in writing that didn't didn't really

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<v Speaker 1>satisfy either John cornn or Tom Tillis and so Blanche

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<v Speaker 1>still isn't confirmed. They pulled down the vote, and apparently

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<v Speaker 1>he met with corn in Tillis on Thursday day in

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<v Speaker 1>an attempt to reach some kind of a deal, and

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<v Speaker 1>apparently progress was made, but still nothing yet. What do

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<v Speaker 1>you think about all this? How much does this matter?

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<v Speaker 1>And and what are your thoughts on this?

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<v Speaker 2>In terms of the confirmation of Blanche, It truly couldn't

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<v Speaker 2>matter less because Trump does not need to get Blanched confirmed.

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<v Speaker 2>Blanche just wants to be confirmed so he can be

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<v Speaker 2>an actual Attorney general, I think in his picture on

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<v Speaker 2>his portrait on the wall the Department of Justice, because

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<v Speaker 2>Blanche can stay Most secretaries can only stay in acting

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<v Speaker 2>capacity for two hundred and ten days. But there's an

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<v Speaker 2>entirely separate law that relates to the Department of Justice,

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<v Speaker 2>WHI says the Deputtorney General can fill in for the

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<v Speaker 2>Attorney General for an indefinite period of time as long

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<v Speaker 2>as the attorney general is vacant. Tar general is definitely vacant.

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<v Speaker 2>So Trump can pull this nomination and Blanche can just

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<v Speaker 2>serve an acting capacity till the end of his term,

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<v Speaker 2>and that would not matter. It is you know all

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<v Speaker 2>the time like Trump is so you know, he exerts

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<v Speaker 2>ironclad discipline on his party. He punishes people who you know,

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<v Speaker 2>who disobey him, you know, demands complete loyalty. Why don't

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<v Speaker 2>Democrats do that? This is why Democrats don't do that,

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<v Speaker 2>because if you primary an incumbent senator of your own party,

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<v Speaker 2>you have like six to eight months of that person

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<v Speaker 2>pissing in your punch bowl for the rest of time

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<v Speaker 2>until they leave. And Trump is paying the price for that.

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<v Speaker 1>Now, what I don't get is like, why if Todd

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<v Speaker 1>Blanche can stay in this role indefinitely, why do Tillis

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<v Speaker 1>and Cornyn think that they have leverage to get this

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<v Speaker 1>this settlement changed? And because like I'm surprised that like

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<v Speaker 1>that Blanche even met with them, are and are thinking

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<v Speaker 1>of giving them the language they want, Because if I were,

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<v Speaker 1>then I'd just be like, fuck you people, I'm going

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<v Speaker 1>to stay as acting Attorney General.

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<v Speaker 2>It's hard to reverse engineer strategy from this, But I

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<v Speaker 2>really think it's because Blanche wants to be confirmed. He

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<v Speaker 2>wants to be the actual attorney on the United.

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<v Speaker 1>States just like a personal just personal best like such

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<v Speaker 1>something if.

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<v Speaker 2>You don't really count as an acting like when they

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<v Speaker 2>go through the attorney generals, he will he will not

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<v Speaker 2>count He just a guy fill in a seat is

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<v Speaker 2>one to This is now become a loyalty test and

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<v Speaker 2>a power play for Trump. There's a power battle here

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<v Speaker 2>by whether we can get it done or not. I

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<v Speaker 2>think there was movement when Trump said he was gonna

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<v Speaker 2>withdraw the nomination. That's when Tillis and Cornyon may seem

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<v Speaker 2>to have moved a little more. They might be lowering

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<v Speaker 2>their ask because they have less leverage in that situation.

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<v Speaker 2>So as long as he wants their vote, they're going

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<v Speaker 2>to try to get something in exchange for that vote.

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<v Speaker 1>Trump allies were floating as a possible replacement for Blanche

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<v Speaker 1>if he didn't get confirmed. Bill Poulty, did you hear

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<v Speaker 1>about this?

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, yes, I mean that is That's the other piece

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<v Speaker 2>of leverage here, is that Trump could just put some

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<v Speaker 2>other goon in who does not require confirmation and just

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<v Speaker 2>let that person serve for you know, however long.

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<v Speaker 1>Bill Poulty, not a lawyer, by the way, so that

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<v Speaker 1>would be an atorney job.

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<v Speaker 2>Not a spy, yes, yeah, that's great, Not a housing expert, nothing.

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<v Speaker 1>Just to just to do us Blanche's nomination wasn't the

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<v Speaker 1>only setback for Trump's DOJ this week. There is himpt

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<v Speaker 1>to prosecute Jim Comey over the eighty six forty seven

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<v Speaker 1>seashell photo he posted, what a sentence? What a sentence

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<v Speaker 1>is turning out to be every bit as crazy as

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<v Speaker 1>it seems. And then some Komy's team filed motions to

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<v Speaker 1>dismiss the case for vindictive prosecution, which included the revelation

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<v Speaker 1>that in order to prove that Comy knew that eighty

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<v Speaker 1>six had an alternative meeting that was violent, the FBI

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<v Speaker 1>interviewed notorious mobster Simmy the Bull Gravano, who told them

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<v Speaker 1>the reason there's no evidence is that mobsters wouldn't leave any.

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<v Speaker 2>Not many mobsters post Instagram photos about pending crimes.

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<v Speaker 1>With pictures of seashells.

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<v Speaker 2>Seashells.

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<v Speaker 1>Yes, it feels like this case might not succeed. Anything

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<v Speaker 1>else jump out at you from the court dos that

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<v Speaker 1>the Komi team filed.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, Actually, the court docs are fascinating. There is an

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<v Speaker 2>allegation from Comy's team that the Secret Service, at the

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<v Speaker 2>request of the number three official in the Justice Department,

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<v Speaker 2>engage in warrantless surveillance of the Komi's including of that

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<v Speaker 2>whole day after posting the photo, including them visiting their

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<v Speaker 2>son's grave.

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<v Speaker 1>I believe and practice phone location.

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<v Speaker 2>That's a practice phone location. Yeah, and kept May had

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<v Speaker 2>made frequent phone calls to Air Force one to keep

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<v Speaker 2>the president a prize what was happening so he could

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<v Speaker 2>respond appropriately to the c show Instagram photo at his

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<v Speaker 2>next presteville.

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<v Speaker 1>Apparently the FBI they also did some research into the

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<v Speaker 1>whole eighty six term. They asked chat GPT at the

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<v Speaker 1>US Attorney's direction. They ran Google AI and chat GPT

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<v Speaker 1>queries about the term eighty six, and the AI told

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<v Speaker 1>them the theory was wrong well, including that Miriam Webster

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't enter a violent meeting.

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<v Speaker 2>Also, it was also a report in the Komee documents

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<v Speaker 2>that on the same day, within hours of the photo

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<v Speaker 2>being post SAD, the Secret Service changed their guidance to

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<v Speaker 2>have eighty six forty seven count as a threat against

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<v Speaker 2>the president.

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<v Speaker 1>Yes. It also eighty six has appeared zero times in

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<v Speaker 1>the FBI's database of communicated threats since two thousand and seven,

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<v Speaker 1>and before Comey posted, Amazon vendors had listed over two

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<v Speaker 1>hundred thousand products with eighty six forty seven, eighty six

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<v Speaker 1>forty six, or eighty six forty five generating zero federal inquiries. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think this one's going to fly. I remember

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<v Speaker 1>like Todd blanche too, was like, we wouldn't just do

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<v Speaker 1>it based on the seashell photo. We wouldn't be bringing

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<v Speaker 1>a case based on that. There's other stuff in there. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>we'll see. It is a pretty high bar to dismiss

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<v Speaker 1>a case for vindictive prosecution, So you know, we'll see.

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<v Speaker 1>But I don't know if the government has the strongest

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<v Speaker 1>case on this one. Trump's deeply corrupt DOJ also acknowledged

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<v Speaker 1>in court this week that the federal government terminated seven

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<v Speaker 1>point six billion dollars in grants for hundreds of clean

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<v Speaker 1>energy projects based solely on the political idea of the

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<v Speaker 1>grant recipient's state, sixteen states, all of which voted for

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<v Speaker 1>Kamala Harris. Politico then reported that Trump personally overruled his

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<v Speaker 1>own agencies to deny disaster aid to four Democratic led

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<v Speaker 1>states just this month. Apparently, the president has rejected aid

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<v Speaker 1>for democratic run states at the highest rate in FEMA's

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<v Speaker 1>forty seven year history. Why isn't this a bigger story.

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<v Speaker 2>Why isn't this a bigger story? Could be the title

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<v Speaker 2>of a compendium of the history of the Trump era.

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<v Speaker 4>This is one of though.

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<v Speaker 1>I saw both of these this week and I was like,

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<v Speaker 1>fucking disaster relief for like, just I don't care. You

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<v Speaker 1>had a hurricane hit, you had a tornado, you had

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<v Speaker 1>a fire. People are in need. And because Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 1>has a beef with the Democratic politician that's running the

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<v Speaker 1>state no federal money.

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<v Speaker 2>This is one of the ways in which we've just

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<v Speaker 2>all of politics, media, society has been ground down by

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<v Speaker 2>Trump's incredible cynicism. Because if this was twenty seventeen, there

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<v Speaker 2>would have been I'm not saying it would have changed

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<v Speaker 2>the election right or done it, but there would have

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<v Speaker 2>been a massive uproar about this because this would have

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<v Speaker 2>been a norm that you do not make disastery political

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<v Speaker 2>That trump is overturned. Nine years later, we've been We've

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<v Speaker 2>seen something some version of this a whole bunch of

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<v Speaker 2>times with Trump where he's threatened this, they've denied grants,

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<v Speaker 2>They've done other things too. They've used the government to

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<v Speaker 2>punish Trump's political opponents in so many ways. We were

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<v Speaker 2>just talking about the government punishing a Jim Comey for

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<v Speaker 2>the Seashell Instagram and so we just like this has

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<v Speaker 2>become at least from Trump, not news and not it

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<v Speaker 2>doesn't shock the conscious anymore. And this is kind of

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<v Speaker 2>this is like the long term damage that Trump has

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<v Speaker 2>done to how we think about politics and what's appropriate

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<v Speaker 2>and what isn't can be seen in the fact that

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<v Speaker 2>this people barely by deny it's something.

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<v Speaker 1>This is terrible impeachable offense. I think certainly the designs,

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<v Speaker 1>for sure, for certain certain the disaster aid. I can

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<v Speaker 1>also imagine like the American people should know this, and

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<v Speaker 1>I do think you can imagine a moment in the

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<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty eight campaign when, like you know, a Democratic

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<v Speaker 1>candidate is talking about jd Vance or Marc or Rubio

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<v Speaker 1>and said, when they were in government the last four years,

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<v Speaker 1>if you were in a state that didn't vote for them,

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<v Speaker 1>you would get denied money. If a hurricane hit, they

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<v Speaker 1>wouldn't they wouldn't come help you out, or for a

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<v Speaker 1>tornado hit, and you need money from the federal government,

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<v Speaker 1>money that you paid into the federal government because you

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<v Speaker 1>pay your taxes. They just wouldn't give it to you,

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<v Speaker 1>just because of how you voted. Like that is, it's

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<v Speaker 1>like a way to both kick the shit out of

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<v Speaker 1>them and sound bipartisan, because now now sounding bipartisan is

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<v Speaker 1>like making sure that we don't starve states of resources

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<v Speaker 1>just because they happen not to vote for the person

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<v Speaker 1>in charge. But I guess that's where we are. I

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<v Speaker 1>mean it is.

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<v Speaker 2>Do you think about in the Obama era, like we

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<v Speaker 2>dealt with a raft of tornadoes which usually hit because

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<v Speaker 2>of where tornadoes, you know, we're talking about Arkansas, Oklahoma,

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<v Speaker 2>places like Missouri, places like that were abomba states that

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<v Speaker 2>vote it overwhelming particularly parts of the state, rural parts

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<v Speaker 2>of the state that voted overwhelmingly against Obama. Him going there,

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<v Speaker 2>meeting with local officials, working with officials who.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm thinking of when we went to I think you

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<v Speaker 1>might have been on that trip when we went to Joplin,

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<v Speaker 1>and he spoke at there, and he spoke at the

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<v Speaker 1>commencement to night after the rural area of Missouri that

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<v Speaker 1>had been hit by a horrific tornado.

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<v Speaker 2>And now that now that's that seemed that was quite

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<v Speaker 2>normal at the time, now would seem like an extraordinary

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<v Speaker 2>example of bipartisanship.

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<v Speaker 4>Patze of America is brought to you by z Biotics. Uh,

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00:16:36.720 --> 00:16:38.039
<v Speaker 4>let's face it, let me get.

315
00:16:37.960 --> 00:16:38.559
<v Speaker 1>A little older.

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00:16:39.080 --> 00:16:40.399
<v Speaker 4>If you go out and have a night with a

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00:16:40.440 --> 00:16:43.240
<v Speaker 4>couple of drinks, you do not bounce back like you

318
00:16:43.399 --> 00:16:45.039
<v Speaker 4>used to. It for me personally, what it's going to

319
00:16:45.080 --> 00:16:46.879
<v Speaker 4>be like when I'm tommy day. I had to make

320
00:16:46.919 --> 00:16:49.159
<v Speaker 4>a choice. I can either have a great night or

321
00:16:49.200 --> 00:16:52.840
<v Speaker 4>a great next morning. Until I found pre alcohol from

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00:16:52.960 --> 00:16:55.759
<v Speaker 4>ze Biotics. Here's what it is, ze Biotics pre alcohol

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<v Speaker 4>It was invented by PhD scientists to tackle rough mornings

325
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<v Speaker 4>after drinking. Here's how it works. When you drink, alcohol

326
00:17:05.079 --> 00:17:08.079
<v Speaker 4>gets converted into a toxic byproduct in the gut. It's

327
00:17:08.119 --> 00:17:10.960
<v Speaker 4>a build up of this byproducts, not dehydration that sublime

328
00:17:11.279 --> 00:17:14.759
<v Speaker 4>for rough days after drinking, pre alcohol produces an enzyme

329
00:17:14.839 --> 00:17:17.440
<v Speaker 4>to break this byproduct down. Just remember to make pre

330
00:17:17.480 --> 00:17:20.240
<v Speaker 4>alcohol your first drink of the night. Drink responsibly and

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00:17:20.279 --> 00:17:24.000
<v Speaker 4>you'll feel your best tomorrow. Longtime listeners know that we

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00:17:24.000 --> 00:17:26.880
<v Speaker 4>are evangelists for z Biotics. I basically will not have

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00:17:26.960 --> 00:17:29.440
<v Speaker 4>a drink without a zbiotics and I got to tell

334
00:17:29.440 --> 00:17:29.880
<v Speaker 4>you love it.

335
00:17:29.960 --> 00:17:30.559
<v Speaker 1>The other day, I.

336
00:17:30.559 --> 00:17:32.720
<v Speaker 4>Ran out and then I went on a trip and

337
00:17:32.759 --> 00:17:34.160
<v Speaker 4>I went out to dinner with a friend of the pod,

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00:17:34.240 --> 00:17:37.160
<v Speaker 4>my Gottlieb, who is a big wine fan, and I

339
00:17:37.200 --> 00:17:39.160
<v Speaker 4>didn't have a z Biotics because I was not at

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00:17:39.160 --> 00:17:40.759
<v Speaker 4>home and I couldn't find one in the store. And

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00:17:40.799 --> 00:17:43.039
<v Speaker 4>the next day, Boy did I notice the difference?

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00:17:43.599 --> 00:17:44.200
<v Speaker 1>Boy did I.

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00:17:44.160 --> 00:17:47.079
<v Speaker 4>Never again Ziotics. I literally went online that night and

344
00:17:47.279 --> 00:17:51.240
<v Speaker 4>ordered another pack. July is packed with barbecues, fireworks, late

345
00:17:51.279 --> 00:17:53.680
<v Speaker 4>weekends and late nights with friends. Keep the good times

346
00:17:53.759 --> 00:17:56.039
<v Speaker 4>rolling into the next day. Drink pre alcohol before you

347
00:17:56.079 --> 00:17:58.519
<v Speaker 4>go out, and wake up ready for whatever Sunday brings.

348
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350
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<v Speaker 5>Of America's broad you Ight Chime. Look, we all know

352
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353
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00:19:12.240 --> 00:19:15.559
<v Speaker 1>I mentioned trump shitty approval ratings in all those new polls,

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<v Speaker 1>The generic ballot seems to be widening again as well,

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<v Speaker 1>after getting maybe a little bit better for Republicans over

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<v Speaker 1>the last month, but this week CNN now has it

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<v Speaker 1>at Democrats have an eight point lead, Emerson has Democrats

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<v Speaker 1>within eleven point lead, Pew is six points, the Argument

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<v Speaker 1>is eight points, and Fox is seven points. What's your

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<v Speaker 1>take on why the polling is getting worse again for

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<v Speaker 1>Trump and Republicans and how much do you think Republican

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<v Speaker 1>midterm candidates will be able to outrun Trump's numbers, Because

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<v Speaker 1>even though this generic ballot number is getting wider, Republicans

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<v Speaker 1>are still you know, they are performing better than Trump's

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<v Speaker 1>approval rating would suggest.

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<v Speaker 2>Or Democrats are underperforming correct perp warting will suggest. So

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<v Speaker 2>there's a couple of things going on here. One is

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<v Speaker 2>the obvious, which is the war is back in the news.

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<v Speaker 2>Gas prices are going up again, that you can. Gas

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<v Speaker 2>prices and a presidential president of a proper rating are

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<v Speaker 2>highly correlated, and so I think that's part of it.

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<v Speaker 2>If you want to get nerdy about what's the difference

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<v Speaker 2>between the polls where like the Pupil where Democrats have

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<v Speaker 2>a six point generic ballot lead and Emerson where Democrats

399
00:20:25.559 --> 00:20:29.200
<v Speaker 2>eleven point generic ballot lead. It is very you can

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<v Speaker 2>isolate it. And this is something our friend Ron Brownstein

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<v Speaker 2>has pointed out repeatedly. Is it centers around what percentage

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<v Speaker 2>of people who disapprove of Trump are voting for Democrats

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<v Speaker 2>on the generic ballot in the pupil it is a

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<v Speaker 2>little less than eighty percent. In these polls where it's

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<v Speaker 2>like eleven percent, you're getting to ninety percent eighty eight

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<v Speaker 2>ninety percent Democrats in most midterm elections, in both the

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<v Speaker 2>when Democrats did very, very well in twenty eighteen and

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<v Speaker 2>in twenty twenty two, they did quite well. Sorry, in

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<v Speaker 2>twenty eighteen, it's because we got ninety percent of Trump

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<v Speaker 2>disapprovers voting for a Democrat for Congress. Now, the reason

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<v Speaker 2>Democrats did better in twenty twenty two that people expected

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<v Speaker 2>was because Republicans were not able to get to that

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<v Speaker 2>ninety percent number of Biden disapprovers. And so that is

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<v Speaker 2>the group right now as you think of. But there

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00:21:19.400 --> 00:21:22.359
<v Speaker 2>is a statistical issue in how these polls work. I

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<v Speaker 2>don't know which is right which is wrong. But if

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<v Speaker 2>you're looking at what's the difference between a good Democratic

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<v Speaker 2>election and a great Democratic election, one major factor is

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<v Speaker 2>how successful Democratic candidates are. Again, of people who disapprove

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<v Speaker 2>of Trump to vote for a Democrat down ballot.

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<v Speaker 1>I will say I've noticed in some of the polls

422
00:21:38.920 --> 00:21:42.759
<v Speaker 1>where the margin might be a little narrower, there's just

423
00:21:42.759 --> 00:21:45.720
<v Speaker 1>a bigger undecided number as well, like they're not pushing

424
00:21:45.759 --> 00:21:50.480
<v Speaker 1>the undecideds, and the Republican number is quite low in

425
00:21:50.519 --> 00:21:53.039
<v Speaker 1>those polls. And so it's basically the Democratic number is

426
00:21:53.079 --> 00:21:55.000
<v Speaker 1>under fifty, but the Republican number in some of these

427
00:21:55.079 --> 00:21:57.720
<v Speaker 1>is like low forties, high thirties in some of them.

428
00:21:58.200 --> 00:22:02.839
<v Speaker 1>And you do wonder in an election where you know,

429
00:22:02.960 --> 00:22:04.759
<v Speaker 1>you have the party in power, and usually the party

430
00:22:04.759 --> 00:22:07.640
<v Speaker 1>in power is punished by the voters if those undecided

431
00:22:08.279 --> 00:22:10.480
<v Speaker 1>don't end up breaking towards the Democrats at the end,

432
00:22:10.640 --> 00:22:11.000
<v Speaker 1>you know.

433
00:22:11.359 --> 00:22:12.559
<v Speaker 2>And that I mean, that is the question, and I

434
00:22:12.599 --> 00:22:14.839
<v Speaker 2>think it's it may usually what happens, but you know,

435
00:22:15.319 --> 00:22:17.680
<v Speaker 2>it may depend race to race, right, which is when

436
00:22:17.720 --> 00:22:20.200
<v Speaker 2>you look at twenty twenty two is the cautionary example

437
00:22:20.200 --> 00:22:23.559
<v Speaker 2>for Democrats because we lost the House. Republicans did not

438
00:22:23.680 --> 00:22:25.920
<v Speaker 2>do great, but they took the House. But then Democrats

439
00:22:25.960 --> 00:22:29.079
<v Speaker 2>won a bunch of Senate races because we had better

440
00:22:29.160 --> 00:22:35.039
<v Speaker 2>candidates running against pretty bad Republican candidates in places like Georgia, Pennsylvania,

441
00:22:35.200 --> 00:22:35.640
<v Speaker 2>et cetera.

442
00:22:35.880 --> 00:22:38.480
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, all right, let's talk about the democratic side of

443
00:22:38.480 --> 00:22:41.079
<v Speaker 1>the midterm battle. I'll start with the good news. In

444
00:22:41.119 --> 00:22:44.119
<v Speaker 1>addition to those generic ballot numbers, there are some great

445
00:22:44.160 --> 00:22:46.920
<v Speaker 1>news Senate polls, including a Fox News poll in North

446
00:22:46.960 --> 00:22:50.640
<v Speaker 1>Carolina that has Roy Cooper up nine on Michael Wattley,

447
00:22:51.200 --> 00:22:53.319
<v Speaker 1>and it looks like at least one Republican super pac

448
00:22:53.400 --> 00:22:55.200
<v Speaker 1>is starting to pull their money out of the state.

449
00:22:56.720 --> 00:23:00.200
<v Speaker 1>One prominent election forecaster, Larry Sabado's about his Crystal All,

450
00:23:00.440 --> 00:23:04.119
<v Speaker 1>just moved the Georgia Senate race from lean Democratic to

451
00:23:04.400 --> 00:23:08.319
<v Speaker 1>likely Democratic based on what they call a stable lead

452
00:23:08.400 --> 00:23:10.240
<v Speaker 1>in the polls. Do you every think you'd see a

453
00:23:10.359 --> 00:23:17.799
<v Speaker 1>Georgia Senate race moved to likely Democratic? Wild? In Iowa,

454
00:23:17.920 --> 00:23:19.960
<v Speaker 1>Josh Turik dropped a great new video where our old

455
00:23:19.960 --> 00:23:23.119
<v Speaker 1>boss Barack Obama endorses him while they shoot hoops, which

456
00:23:23.119 --> 00:23:25.440
<v Speaker 1>has already been viewed by the equivalent of the entire

457
00:23:25.519 --> 00:23:30.200
<v Speaker 1>population of Iowa just on Josh Turik's social accounts alone.

458
00:23:30.920 --> 00:23:33.640
<v Speaker 1>It was a great video. What's your take on the

459
00:23:33.640 --> 00:23:38.559
<v Speaker 1>developments in North Carolina and Georgia, it is it safe

460
00:23:38.559 --> 00:23:41.640
<v Speaker 1>to exhale on those obviously No, I don't.

461
00:23:41.640 --> 00:23:44.400
<v Speaker 2>Know, of course not. I mean I just basically at

462
00:23:44.440 --> 00:23:47.240
<v Speaker 2>the almost passed out just at the idea of moving

463
00:23:47.279 --> 00:23:51.200
<v Speaker 2>Georgia to lean Democratic likely. But there's no question we

464
00:23:51.240 --> 00:23:54.640
<v Speaker 2>are better positioned in North Carolina, in Georgia at with

465
00:23:54.759 --> 00:23:56.799
<v Speaker 2>less than hundred days ago than we ever thought could

466
00:23:56.880 --> 00:24:01.200
<v Speaker 2>be possible a year ago. Like the we have great

467
00:24:01.240 --> 00:24:03.720
<v Speaker 2>candidates running against bad Republican candidates or can't say, have

468
00:24:03.799 --> 00:24:07.599
<v Speaker 2>huge fund raising advantages. We should be clear that it

469
00:24:07.680 --> 00:24:12.160
<v Speaker 2>is highly unlikely that Roy Cooper wins by nine points

470
00:24:12.400 --> 00:24:14.799
<v Speaker 2>and John Assoff wins by nine to ten or whatever

471
00:24:14.839 --> 00:24:17.240
<v Speaker 2>the poles say, like these races are going to be closer,

472
00:24:17.599 --> 00:24:20.400
<v Speaker 2>Like in these polls, whre Cooper is right around fifty,

473
00:24:20.680 --> 00:24:23.079
<v Speaker 2>Michael Whitley, who's much less well known, is down below.

474
00:24:24.039 --> 00:24:29.440
<v Speaker 2>That undecided is unlikely to allocate entirely to the Democrat.

475
00:24:29.960 --> 00:24:32.640
<v Speaker 2>May even it may be sixty forty or thirty seventy

476
00:24:32.680 --> 00:24:36.000
<v Speaker 2>going with seventy percent going to the Republican because I'd

477
00:24:36.039 --> 00:24:37.720
<v Speaker 2>have to look, we need a more high quality post

478
00:24:37.720 --> 00:24:40.640
<v Speaker 2>look at like who makes up that undecided, But many

479
00:24:40.680 --> 00:24:43.279
<v Speaker 2>of them probably profile as at least potentially voting for

480
00:24:43.279 --> 00:24:45.240
<v Speaker 2>a Republican. So I think they're very very well position.

481
00:24:45.319 --> 00:24:48.720
<v Speaker 2>These races are going to get closer, and look, if

482
00:24:48.759 --> 00:24:50.680
<v Speaker 2>Republicans are pulling money out of North Carolina, that's a

483
00:24:51.680 --> 00:24:56.079
<v Speaker 2>that's that's great because that's the means Democrat democracyuperpacs may

484
00:24:56.079 --> 00:24:57.279
<v Speaker 2>not have to spend as much money there, and we'll

485
00:24:57.279 --> 00:24:59.359
<v Speaker 2>have more money to spend in these stretch dates. The

486
00:24:59.400 --> 00:25:03.240
<v Speaker 2>North Carolina kind of thing also relates to the shift

487
00:25:03.480 --> 00:25:08.200
<v Speaker 2>in the map post gram Platner, which is, if you

488
00:25:08.240 --> 00:25:11.880
<v Speaker 2>would have bet in order of likelihood, Maine was the

489
00:25:11.880 --> 00:25:14.920
<v Speaker 2>most likely state to flip in North Caroline's the second

490
00:25:14.960 --> 00:25:17.240
<v Speaker 2>most likely state to flip, But because of how everything's

491
00:25:17.240 --> 00:25:20.200
<v Speaker 2>played out, Maine, North Carolina is probably now the most

492
00:25:20.240 --> 00:25:22.119
<v Speaker 2>likely state to flip, and main is the second most

493
00:25:22.160 --> 00:25:24.400
<v Speaker 2>likely state to flip, so you'll see more resources head there.

494
00:25:24.480 --> 00:25:27.920
<v Speaker 1>Why do you think Roy Cooper of all the candidates,

495
00:25:28.200 --> 00:25:30.599
<v Speaker 1>is this far ahead A.

496
00:25:30.599 --> 00:25:32.799
<v Speaker 2>Couple of reasons. I interviewed Roy Cooper on this exact

497
00:25:32.799 --> 00:25:36.079
<v Speaker 2>podcast a few weeks ago. Roy Cooper is awesome. He

498
00:25:36.319 --> 00:25:40.480
<v Speaker 2>is He is just you know, like everyone wants. We

499
00:25:40.559 --> 00:25:44.039
<v Speaker 2>often do these super exciting, super inspirational candidates who are

500
00:25:44.039 --> 00:25:47.000
<v Speaker 2>like crushing TikTok memes or whatever else. And Racoper is

501
00:25:47.039 --> 00:25:50.240
<v Speaker 2>just like a great politician. He is incredibly charming, He

502
00:25:50.359 --> 00:25:53.359
<v Speaker 2>is smart, he has delivered for the state. He has

503
00:25:54.000 --> 00:25:56.720
<v Speaker 2>the biparted He's tried to be bipartisan against one of

504
00:25:56.759 --> 00:25:59.720
<v Speaker 2>the most radical Republican legislatures in the country. He is

505
00:25:59.759 --> 00:26:03.599
<v Speaker 2>a plush things. He won in that state twice with

506
00:26:03.680 --> 00:26:06.960
<v Speaker 2>Trump on the ballot. In the state of North Carolina,

507
00:26:07.440 --> 00:26:10.440
<v Speaker 2>and Michael Wattley was a terrible choice for Republicans. He

508
00:26:10.559 --> 00:26:13.599
<v Speaker 2>is a former state party cherries Trump's hand picked choice.

509
00:26:13.680 --> 00:26:17.359
<v Speaker 2>Voters don't know him. He there's a whole bunch about

510
00:26:17.400 --> 00:26:19.440
<v Speaker 2>Mike watt He's just was a bad choice. And so

511
00:26:19.519 --> 00:26:21.200
<v Speaker 2>you have a very very good candidate running against a

512
00:26:21.359 --> 00:26:24.880
<v Speaker 2>bad Republican in a state that is I think it

513
00:26:24.960 --> 00:26:27.400
<v Speaker 2>is underperformed for Democrats in the last couple elections if

514
00:26:27.400 --> 00:26:29.319
<v Speaker 2>you look at it demographically, and so there is real

515
00:26:29.359 --> 00:26:33.640
<v Speaker 2>potential here, particularly in a midterm elector. Rate will look

516
00:26:33.680 --> 00:26:36.039
<v Speaker 2>better than a presidential electorate there because of the high

517
00:26:36.079 --> 00:26:42.240
<v Speaker 2>proportion of college educated voters in the research triangle in

518
00:26:42.240 --> 00:26:43.200
<v Speaker 2>the other suburbs of the state.

519
00:26:43.480 --> 00:26:45.799
<v Speaker 1>I also think on the flip side to your earlier

520
00:26:45.839 --> 00:26:48.599
<v Speaker 1>point about you know, Cooper being at these polls being

521
00:26:48.640 --> 00:26:52.559
<v Speaker 1>around fifty and Wattley being much lower. One reason for

522
00:26:52.599 --> 00:26:55.680
<v Speaker 1>that could be that this is a race where everyone

523
00:26:55.720 --> 00:26:59.720
<v Speaker 1>knows Roy Cooper. Yeah, exactly right, And so if you're undecided,

524
00:27:00.319 --> 00:27:03.200
<v Speaker 1>you've probably there's probably a better chance you've you know

525
00:27:03.319 --> 00:27:04.920
<v Speaker 1>Roy Cooper and decided you don't want to vote for him.

526
00:27:04.960 --> 00:27:06.720
<v Speaker 1>But you don't know who this Michael Waltley character is,

527
00:27:07.039 --> 00:27:08.920
<v Speaker 1>and maybe it's a Republican who's gonna end up coming

528
00:27:08.920 --> 00:27:12.319
<v Speaker 1>home or just not voting. And I guess you know,

529
00:27:12.359 --> 00:27:16.319
<v Speaker 1>you could say some similar similar thing about Osoff in Georgia, right,

530
00:27:16.400 --> 00:27:18.000
<v Speaker 1>like he's their senator and he's been their senator. Mike

531
00:27:18.039 --> 00:27:21.480
<v Speaker 1>Collins is just a congressman in one district, but also

532
00:27:21.640 --> 00:27:24.880
<v Speaker 1>two really bad candidates in Mike Collins and Michael Walley.

533
00:27:25.079 --> 00:27:27.480
<v Speaker 2>So Mike Collins today was doing a Pressville I think

534
00:27:27.519 --> 00:27:29.359
<v Speaker 2>this was today, and he had to end it early

535
00:27:29.400 --> 00:27:31.160
<v Speaker 2>because he got a bunch of questions about all of

536
00:27:31.200 --> 00:27:36.039
<v Speaker 2>the anti Semitic, Nazi esque things that his son in

537
00:27:36.079 --> 00:27:37.160
<v Speaker 2>law has been posting online.

538
00:27:37.319 --> 00:27:41.039
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, really cool. Uh, We've also got some potentially good

539
00:27:41.039 --> 00:27:44.519
<v Speaker 1>Senate News in deep red states like Montana, Idaho, and Nebraska,

540
00:27:44.839 --> 00:27:47.880
<v Speaker 1>where the new Democratic strategy appears to be don't run

541
00:27:47.880 --> 00:27:52.200
<v Speaker 1>a Democrat. You want to explain what's happened in those dates.

542
00:27:52.599 --> 00:27:57.160
<v Speaker 2>Sure, so, there is an emerging theory that in states

543
00:27:57.240 --> 00:28:00.519
<v Speaker 2>like Nebraska. In Montana it's Trump won by twenty points.

544
00:28:00.839 --> 00:28:03.960
<v Speaker 2>In Idaho was Trump won by thirty six points. The

545
00:28:03.960 --> 00:28:07.240
<v Speaker 2>Democratic brand is so toxic that no person, no matter

546
00:28:07.279 --> 00:28:09.000
<v Speaker 2>how great a canon and ma how wealthun and they are,

547
00:28:09.039 --> 00:28:12.240
<v Speaker 2>could actually be a Republican. But an independent would have

548
00:28:12.240 --> 00:28:15.039
<v Speaker 2>a much better chance at taking out a Republican in

549
00:28:15.079 --> 00:28:16.440
<v Speaker 2>an anti Republican year like.

550
00:28:16.440 --> 00:28:16.920
<v Speaker 1>The one Moran.

551
00:28:17.599 --> 00:28:20.480
<v Speaker 2>And so in Nebraska you have Dan Osborne, who's a

552
00:28:20.519 --> 00:28:23.640
<v Speaker 2>union organizer who ran in twenty twenty four against deb

553
00:28:23.720 --> 00:28:27.559
<v Speaker 2>Fisher is running again. He over He outperformed Kamala Harris

554
00:28:27.599 --> 00:28:30.440
<v Speaker 2>by about fourteen points. He only lost by six movies

555
00:28:30.599 --> 00:28:32.519
<v Speaker 2>closer to seven points ago. Yeah, it was like six

556
00:28:32.519 --> 00:28:35.519
<v Speaker 2>point seven points, Trump on by twenty. And then in

557
00:28:35.759 --> 00:28:40.880
<v Speaker 2>Idaho you have Todd Achilles, who is a veteran, a businessman,

558
00:28:40.960 --> 00:28:43.519
<v Speaker 2>former state legislator, used to be a Democrat, has left

559
00:28:43.519 --> 00:28:46.200
<v Speaker 2>the party becoming an independent. He is running against Jim Risch,

560
00:28:46.200 --> 00:28:48.359
<v Speaker 2>who was an actual senator, though it was probably comes

561
00:28:48.400 --> 00:28:52.039
<v Speaker 2>a news to people, but he is and in that race,

562
00:28:52.480 --> 00:28:56.000
<v Speaker 2>there is no In both Idaho and Nebraska, the person

563
00:28:56.039 --> 00:28:59.279
<v Speaker 2>who won the Democratic primary dropped out to give the

564
00:28:59.359 --> 00:29:03.839
<v Speaker 2>independent Candon their best chance. In Montana, you have Seth

565
00:29:03.880 --> 00:29:06.759
<v Speaker 2>Bodner running. He is a former Green Bray and the

566
00:29:06.799 --> 00:29:09.440
<v Speaker 2>longtime president Niversity of Montana. He is running as an

567
00:29:09.440 --> 00:29:12.599
<v Speaker 2>independent and there is also a Democrat in the race

568
00:29:12.880 --> 00:29:15.440
<v Speaker 2>who is refusing to drop out. And some polling has

569
00:29:15.480 --> 00:29:17.759
<v Speaker 2>shown that Bodner has a legitimate chance. I think he

570
00:29:17.799 --> 00:29:21.279
<v Speaker 2>was down by a point or two to the Republican

571
00:29:21.359 --> 00:29:23.480
<v Speaker 2>whose name I cannot remember. And you remember the context

572
00:29:23.519 --> 00:29:27.000
<v Speaker 2>here race is that they're basically the Republican dropped out

573
00:29:27.079 --> 00:29:30.960
<v Speaker 2>like minutes before the filing deadline, So there's a whole

574
00:29:31.079 --> 00:29:33.160
<v Speaker 2>there's a whole corruption element to this too. So the

575
00:29:33.160 --> 00:29:35.599
<v Speaker 2>potential shot in this race, but the Democrat does not

576
00:29:35.720 --> 00:29:37.640
<v Speaker 2>seem like she is dropping out.

577
00:29:37.680 --> 00:29:40.480
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, the Democrat in Idaho dropped out just this last week,

578
00:29:40.880 --> 00:29:44.680
<v Speaker 1>and so you know, I think Todd Achilles in that state,

579
00:29:44.759 --> 00:29:47.119
<v Speaker 1>the polling hasn't showed him as close to Jim Rich,

580
00:29:47.240 --> 00:29:49.240
<v Speaker 1>but like he's still you know, it's better than the

581
00:29:49.279 --> 00:29:51.799
<v Speaker 1>Democrat for sure, and now that the Democrats dropped out,

582
00:29:51.799 --> 00:29:56.440
<v Speaker 1>maybe he'll get some more attention. But in Montana, I

583
00:29:56.440 --> 00:30:00.599
<v Speaker 1>mean there's some polling that shows Seth Bodner over Kurt

584
00:30:00.799 --> 00:30:04.559
<v Speaker 1>Kurt Almey is their Republican who basically you know, they

585
00:30:04.680 --> 00:30:06.599
<v Speaker 1>the fix was in. And as soon as Steve Danes,

586
00:30:07.240 --> 00:30:10.119
<v Speaker 1>who is the Republican, the Republican Center of Montana dropped

587
00:30:10.119 --> 00:30:11.759
<v Speaker 1>out that he's the one who just filed a couple

588
00:30:11.759 --> 00:30:15.599
<v Speaker 1>of minutes after that. But the Democrat in that race

589
00:30:16.759 --> 00:30:21.200
<v Speaker 1>just like refuses to drop out, and she has no money,

590
00:30:21.720 --> 00:30:26.200
<v Speaker 1>no real campaign, and is just being stubborn for no reason.

591
00:30:27.319 --> 00:30:30.440
<v Speaker 1>And she does have until, by the way, August tenth,

592
00:30:30.880 --> 00:30:33.799
<v Speaker 1>so she can drop out by August tenth and then

593
00:30:33.920 --> 00:30:38.359
<v Speaker 1>give Seth Bodnar like a real chance against the Republican

594
00:30:38.480 --> 00:30:40.440
<v Speaker 1>and we could, you know, you could get independence in

595
00:30:40.440 --> 00:30:44.720
<v Speaker 1>there now, Seth Bodnar, Todd Achilles. There's also Brian bangs

596
00:30:44.759 --> 00:30:49.400
<v Speaker 1>Is running in South Dakota. You know, they're not like

597
00:30:49.799 --> 00:30:52.880
<v Speaker 1>liberal Democrats, they're not even mainstream Democrats. I think all

598
00:30:52.880 --> 00:30:55.359
<v Speaker 1>of them have some and same thing with Dan Osborne.

599
00:30:55.440 --> 00:30:57.279
<v Speaker 1>Some of them have some like I would say, I

600
00:30:57.279 --> 00:31:01.079
<v Speaker 1>would characterize it as more culturally conservative positions on some

601
00:31:01.240 --> 00:31:07.079
<v Speaker 1>issues and then little more economically populist positions on other issues,

602
00:31:07.160 --> 00:31:10.519
<v Speaker 1>not too lefty economic populace, but for a red state,

603
00:31:10.599 --> 00:31:15.079
<v Speaker 1>they do very focused on sort of anti corruption, good government.

604
00:31:15.599 --> 00:31:18.000
<v Speaker 1>I mean, they're the type you would want them in

605
00:31:18.039 --> 00:31:21.519
<v Speaker 1>the United States Senate, way way way over the Republicans

606
00:31:21.519 --> 00:31:22.119
<v Speaker 1>in those seats.

607
00:31:22.240 --> 00:31:24.480
<v Speaker 2>Yes, I mean, as an example, Dan Osbourne in twenty

608
00:31:24.519 --> 00:31:26.599
<v Speaker 2>twenty four ran an ad saying he would help Trump.

609
00:31:26.359 --> 00:31:30.599
<v Speaker 1>Build the wall right right, but he's also like on

610
00:31:30.720 --> 00:31:35.519
<v Speaker 1>economic issues on healthcare, like minimum wage, union rights. Yeah,

611
00:31:35.759 --> 00:31:37.759
<v Speaker 1>you want to be he's great on all that stuff,

612
00:31:37.880 --> 00:31:41.119
<v Speaker 1>you know, So that's hopefully that'll work. But yeah, if

613
00:31:41.119 --> 00:31:43.079
<v Speaker 1>you're in Montana, you're in Idaho, check out some of

614
00:31:43.119 --> 00:31:45.759
<v Speaker 1>these candidates. And also if you're in Montana, like try

615
00:31:45.839 --> 00:31:48.039
<v Speaker 1>to help make some noise so that the Democrat in

616
00:31:48.039 --> 00:31:50.799
<v Speaker 1>that race can finally drop out and do the right

617
00:31:50.799 --> 00:31:53.000
<v Speaker 1>thing before August tenth and actually give us a shot there,

618
00:31:53.000 --> 00:31:54.200
<v Speaker 1>because if not, we have no shot.

619
00:31:54.759 --> 00:31:56.680
<v Speaker 2>I would say that in Montana, and I've heard from

620
00:31:56.680 --> 00:31:58.359
<v Speaker 2>some people in Montana about this, that there is a

621
00:31:58.400 --> 00:32:01.119
<v Speaker 2>lot of anger at how this has played out that

622
00:32:01.640 --> 00:32:03.160
<v Speaker 2>you know, you have a Democratic Party of a fairly

623
00:32:03.240 --> 00:32:05.960
<v Speaker 2>el something vibrant Democratic party that has you know, elected

624
00:32:06.000 --> 00:32:08.400
<v Speaker 2>John Tester multiple times, so there's been Democratic governors of

625
00:32:08.440 --> 00:32:11.759
<v Speaker 2>the state in recent years. And to sort of have

626
00:32:11.880 --> 00:32:16.880
<v Speaker 2>that whole process uh pushed aside for someone who they

627
00:32:16.920 --> 00:32:19.079
<v Speaker 2>believe to be quite flawed on many issues has led

628
00:32:19.079 --> 00:32:22.160
<v Speaker 2>to anger, which is I think leading to Banks saying

629
00:32:22.160 --> 00:32:23.440
<v Speaker 2>the race. Now, if you take a step back and

630
00:32:23.480 --> 00:32:25.559
<v Speaker 2>you say, what is our best chance of beating Kurt

631
00:32:25.559 --> 00:32:28.160
<v Speaker 2>Almey and winning a seat, even if it's a long shot,

632
00:32:28.440 --> 00:32:30.640
<v Speaker 2>it is clearly Seth Bodner and it's not a close call.

633
00:32:31.119 --> 00:32:36.759
<v Speaker 2>And there is something that connects this with the DNC

634
00:32:36.799 --> 00:32:40.440
<v Speaker 2>conversation you guys had on Tuesday with something we're about

635
00:32:40.440 --> 00:32:43.720
<v Speaker 2>to talk about here, which is there really is like

636
00:32:43.839 --> 00:32:45.599
<v Speaker 2>it's sort of order the flies in the Democratic Party

637
00:32:45.680 --> 00:32:48.240
<v Speaker 2>right now. Ideas you know, you would like to think

638
00:32:48.279 --> 00:32:50.200
<v Speaker 2>that there's someone in charge, someone with authority who come

639
00:32:50.200 --> 00:32:54.039
<v Speaker 2>in and say, look, someone who's trusted, who could say

640
00:32:54.079 --> 00:32:57.119
<v Speaker 2>the best thing to defeat Republicans and have Democrats possibly

641
00:32:57.160 --> 00:32:58.880
<v Speaker 2>take the Senate and hold it for a while, because

642
00:32:58.920 --> 00:33:00.319
<v Speaker 2>we really want to have a governing majority. We need

643
00:33:00.319 --> 00:33:01.960
<v Speaker 2>to go back to a world where we can win Montana,

644
00:33:02.000 --> 00:33:04.440
<v Speaker 2>at Idaho and a brask and places like that. Is

645
00:33:04.480 --> 00:33:06.559
<v Speaker 2>for to give Seth Bodner a chance here, even if

646
00:33:06.599 --> 00:33:10.000
<v Speaker 2>it is a long shot and no one has that authority.

647
00:33:10.039 --> 00:33:12.240
<v Speaker 2>Same thing at the DNC, where no one has the

648
00:33:12.279 --> 00:33:14.599
<v Speaker 2>actual authority to go and tell Ken Martin he should

649
00:33:14.640 --> 00:33:16.640
<v Speaker 2>go if that's what they think. And so there is

650
00:33:16.720 --> 00:33:19.359
<v Speaker 2>just we're kind of no one is in charge right

651
00:33:19.400 --> 00:33:22.119
<v Speaker 2>now in the party and that has consequences in these

652
00:33:22.119 --> 00:33:23.799
<v Speaker 2>sorts of situations. And you don't I'm like, you don't

653
00:33:23.799 --> 00:33:26.039
<v Speaker 2>want people from watching the company and doing everything, but

654
00:33:26.400 --> 00:33:28.599
<v Speaker 2>there is at times you have to make really hard

655
00:33:28.599 --> 00:33:31.480
<v Speaker 2>strategic decisions and there's no one trusted to make those decisions,

656
00:33:31.519 --> 00:33:32.799
<v Speaker 2>so you end up with situations like this.

657
00:33:33.079 --> 00:33:36.480
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's a real problem. But when you you know,

658
00:33:37.720 --> 00:33:40.240
<v Speaker 1>NBC just had a story about this today, just sort

659
00:33:40.240 --> 00:33:42.720
<v Speaker 1>of detailing what's going on in the Montana race and

660
00:33:42.759 --> 00:33:45.559
<v Speaker 1>saying how like, even though the party is sort of

661
00:33:45.559 --> 00:33:48.039
<v Speaker 1>at war with itself right now, people from all different

662
00:33:48.079 --> 00:33:51.680
<v Speaker 1>parts of the party are all for Seth Bodner getting

663
00:33:51.680 --> 00:33:54.440
<v Speaker 1>a chance in this race. Like they interview Faz Shakir

664
00:33:54.720 --> 00:33:57.640
<v Speaker 1>you know, work for Bernie Sanders near a Tandeon at

665
00:33:57.759 --> 00:34:01.079
<v Speaker 1>cap like like the Left the Center. Everyone's for this

666
00:34:01.200 --> 00:34:04.119
<v Speaker 1>and so it's just a matter of actually these people

667
00:34:04.359 --> 00:34:12.559
<v Speaker 1>in these races who are democrats doing the right things.

668
00:34:14.000 --> 00:34:16.719
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669
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<v Speaker 6>Hey, Dan Tuberski here, I'm a podcast host, a journalist,

692
00:35:28.760 --> 00:35:31.280
<v Speaker 6>and now with my newest project, the author of my

693
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<v Speaker 6>own manifesto. Well, it's a manifesto about manifestos, my search

694
00:35:36.039 --> 00:35:39.360
<v Speaker 6>for inspiration and a world that feels more infuriating, more

695
00:35:39.440 --> 00:35:43.320
<v Speaker 6>out of its freaking mind with each passing hour. Manifestos

696
00:35:43.360 --> 00:35:46.480
<v Speaker 6>are a call to action, an artful screen. They capture

697
00:35:46.480 --> 00:35:48.599
<v Speaker 6>our anger and they try to do something with it.

698
00:35:49.119 --> 00:35:51.920
<v Speaker 6>This is my attempt to take the manifesto back from

699
00:35:51.960 --> 00:35:55.039
<v Speaker 6>mass shooters and nihilists, then return it to its rightful

700
00:35:55.079 --> 00:35:58.440
<v Speaker 6>place with the warriors, the visionaries, the regular folks with

701
00:35:58.639 --> 00:36:03.079
<v Speaker 6>just the right amount of craze. I compare notes with radicals, secessionists,

702
00:36:03.280 --> 00:36:06.440
<v Speaker 6>internet trolls out for a laugh and punctioningers screaming their

703
00:36:06.480 --> 00:36:09.000
<v Speaker 6>guts out, all trying to turn their anger into the

704
00:36:09.000 --> 00:36:12.079
<v Speaker 6>world they want to see. Listen to Manifesto wherever you

705
00:36:12.119 --> 00:36:15.360
<v Speaker 6>get your podcasts. Audible subscribers can binge all episodes of

706
00:36:15.400 --> 00:36:18.760
<v Speaker 6>Manifesto early and ad free right now. Join Audible in

707
00:36:18.800 --> 00:36:21.760
<v Speaker 6>the Audible app or by subscribing on Apple Podcasts.

708
00:36:26.480 --> 00:36:26.800
<v Speaker 7>All right.

709
00:36:26.960 --> 00:36:30.760
<v Speaker 1>Meanwhile, in the Upper Midwest, the Democratic civil war is raging.

710
00:36:30.840 --> 00:36:34.639
<v Speaker 1>Like the twenty sixteen primary never ended. We are We're

711
00:36:34.679 --> 00:36:36.880
<v Speaker 1>in the final stages of the primary campaigns in the

712
00:36:36.920 --> 00:36:39.880
<v Speaker 1>Michigan Senate and House races or election Day is this

713
00:36:40.039 --> 00:36:43.559
<v Speaker 1>coming Tuesday, and the Wisconsin Governor's race, which is a

714
00:36:43.599 --> 00:36:47.119
<v Speaker 1>week later. In Michigan, the final debate of the Senate

715
00:36:47.159 --> 00:36:50.320
<v Speaker 1>primary between Hailey Stevens and Abdul Lsaed was Monday night.

716
00:36:50.679 --> 00:36:52.679
<v Speaker 1>Here's a sample of the vibe.

717
00:36:52.920 --> 00:36:55.239
<v Speaker 8>Would you ask sixty million dollars to come into a

718
00:36:55.320 --> 00:36:57.440
<v Speaker 8>race for you and then say that somehow you're electable.

719
00:36:57.639 --> 00:37:00.079
<v Speaker 8>I think you don't quite understand what electability means. If

720
00:37:00.119 --> 00:37:02.280
<v Speaker 8>you need a sixty million dollar crutch, you probably can't

721
00:37:02.280 --> 00:37:03.679
<v Speaker 8>be elected on your own terms.

722
00:37:03.800 --> 00:37:06.880
<v Speaker 9>My opponent is on these big podcasts, you know, he's

723
00:37:07.000 --> 00:37:09.880
<v Speaker 9>running a podcast himself. These folks are making fun of

724
00:37:09.920 --> 00:37:12.679
<v Speaker 9>the way I sound, But yet I sound like the

725
00:37:12.760 --> 00:37:16.480
<v Speaker 9>people who need help who are talking to me about

726
00:37:16.519 --> 00:37:17.679
<v Speaker 9>what they need.

727
00:37:18.480 --> 00:37:29.800
<v Speaker 1>A direct attack on podcasters, Dan, what the fuck? And

728
00:37:29.840 --> 00:37:33.880
<v Speaker 1>in one of ours? Actually the podcast she was referring

729
00:37:33.880 --> 00:37:38.079
<v Speaker 1>to there America Dissected one of a cricket podcasts for

730
00:37:38.119 --> 00:37:41.320
<v Speaker 1>many years. Hasn't been for a couple of years. But yeah,

731
00:37:41.400 --> 00:37:43.679
<v Speaker 1>that was what Abdual hosted right here on our network

732
00:37:44.119 --> 00:37:46.079
<v Speaker 1>and podcast about public health for the p Yeah, I

733
00:37:46.079 --> 00:37:48.079
<v Speaker 1>was going to say that's the It's not really this thing.

734
00:37:48.400 --> 00:37:49.679
<v Speaker 1>She was trying to make it out to be this

735
00:37:50.159 --> 00:37:51.280
<v Speaker 1>celebrity podcast, like.

736
00:37:51.840 --> 00:37:53.679
<v Speaker 2>It's not breaking down Real Housewives of Rhode Island.

737
00:37:53.679 --> 00:37:57.079
<v Speaker 1>You know, it's a pretty staid podcast about public health

738
00:37:57.079 --> 00:38:00.000
<v Speaker 1>that's helping inform people about public health. Anyway, it's getting

739
00:38:00.039 --> 00:38:03.599
<v Speaker 1>even more heated between surrogates, as it often does. Michigan

740
00:38:03.679 --> 00:38:07.159
<v Speaker 1>Congresswoman Hillary Shulton, who is a Hailey Stephens supporter, was

741
00:38:07.199 --> 00:38:10.280
<v Speaker 1>asked by Semaphore on Wednesday evening whether she'll support Abdul

742
00:38:10.320 --> 00:38:13.039
<v Speaker 1>if he wins, and she said, quote, I will not

743
00:38:13.199 --> 00:38:17.119
<v Speaker 1>stand beside someone who has allowed distinctly anti American sentiment

744
00:38:17.480 --> 00:38:23.679
<v Speaker 1>to enter our public dialogue. When Abdul came on this podcast,

745
00:38:24.280 --> 00:38:27.159
<v Speaker 1>Alex Wagner asked him the same question about Stevens. He said,

746
00:38:27.360 --> 00:38:28.960
<v Speaker 1>I will do everything I can to make sure Mike

747
00:38:29.039 --> 00:38:32.880
<v Speaker 1>Rodgers never sees the inside of the US Senate Bernie

748
00:38:32.920 --> 00:38:36.000
<v Speaker 1>Sanders the same night that Hillary Schulton gave that interview,

749
00:38:36.199 --> 00:38:39.719
<v Speaker 1>was on CNN saying he would support Hailey Stevens if

750
00:38:39.760 --> 00:38:43.400
<v Speaker 1>she's the winner as well, and just not getting it

751
00:38:43.440 --> 00:38:46.400
<v Speaker 1>from all of the supporters on Hailey Stephens side.

752
00:38:46.519 --> 00:38:51.039
<v Speaker 2>But Hailey Stephens herself has said yes, she has never

753
00:38:51.079 --> 00:38:52.920
<v Speaker 2>being totally fair hair. There are people on the other

754
00:38:53.000 --> 00:38:57.400
<v Speaker 2>side who feel the same way about Haley Stevens. Because

755
00:38:58.320 --> 00:39:01.039
<v Speaker 2>here's the thing. If you believe the polls, and we

756
00:39:01.079 --> 00:39:02.719
<v Speaker 2>only have a small sample size of the poles here,

757
00:39:02.760 --> 00:39:06.039
<v Speaker 2>Abdul is the most likely Democratic nominee.

758
00:39:06.119 --> 00:39:08.840
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, so Emerson came out. So we've had a lot

759
00:39:08.840 --> 00:39:12.440
<v Speaker 1>of kind of either internal polls or polls that are

760
00:39:12.440 --> 00:39:15.760
<v Speaker 1>like not high quality or maybe they're just new pollsters.

761
00:39:15.960 --> 00:39:18.280
<v Speaker 1>But we had an Emerson poll on Thursday. Emerson's a

762
00:39:18.320 --> 00:39:21.639
<v Speaker 1>high quality pole and it has a dual up fifteen

763
00:39:21.719 --> 00:39:24.519
<v Speaker 1>percent over Haley, which does match with some of those

764
00:39:24.559 --> 00:39:27.159
<v Speaker 1>other poles that we weren't sure about, We're saying.

765
00:39:27.119 --> 00:39:30.880
<v Speaker 2>And it matches the internal polls that are circulating. Yes,

766
00:39:31.440 --> 00:39:34.000
<v Speaker 2>so I think that that probably is an accurate picture.

767
00:39:34.000 --> 00:39:37.760
<v Speaker 2>Where the race stands today four days before the primary,

768
00:39:37.840 --> 00:39:39.679
<v Speaker 2>and a fairmenum people have voted already.

769
00:39:39.400 --> 00:39:39.800
<v Speaker 1>In the state.

770
00:39:40.159 --> 00:39:42.880
<v Speaker 2>But no matter who wins, everyone's gonna have to come

771
00:39:42.880 --> 00:39:44.679
<v Speaker 2>back together again, and both the winner and the loser

772
00:39:44.679 --> 00:39:47.280
<v Speaker 2>are going to have to build a bridge to get

773
00:39:47.320 --> 00:39:51.760
<v Speaker 2>the other side together. Right, Like, if Abdul wins, he

774
00:39:51.840 --> 00:39:56.039
<v Speaker 2>is going to have to be very magnanimous and very open,

775
00:39:56.599 --> 00:40:00.480
<v Speaker 2>and he is going to need the support of all

776
00:40:00.519 --> 00:40:03.039
<v Speaker 2>of the establishment that is supporting Haley Stevens in Michigan,

777
00:40:03.320 --> 00:40:08.719
<v Speaker 2>Gretchen and Whitmer, Dana Nessel, Debbie Stabinow, Gary Peters, And

778
00:40:08.840 --> 00:40:12.760
<v Speaker 2>if Haley Stevens were to win, then she is going

779
00:40:12.800 --> 00:40:16.000
<v Speaker 2>to need the support of the huge grassroots network that

780
00:40:16.039 --> 00:40:21.000
<v Speaker 2>Abdul has created, the UAW, which is supported Abdul, Like,

781
00:40:21.239 --> 00:40:23.679
<v Speaker 2>everyone's gonna have to come together here pretty quickly, because

782
00:40:23.840 --> 00:40:25.679
<v Speaker 2>this is the problem with the late primary is there's

783
00:40:25.719 --> 00:40:29.599
<v Speaker 2>not a lot of time to mend fences, build a

784
00:40:29.639 --> 00:40:31.199
<v Speaker 2>coalition and then go win in general election.

785
00:40:31.280 --> 00:40:33.039
<v Speaker 1>Here's all I'll say about it. It is one thing

786
00:40:33.119 --> 00:40:37.039
<v Speaker 1>to have supporters on both sides who when the other

787
00:40:37.079 --> 00:40:39.519
<v Speaker 1>candidate wins are gonna say that they're going to take

788
00:40:39.519 --> 00:40:42.079
<v Speaker 1>their toys and go home. And that's going to happen.

789
00:40:43.440 --> 00:40:48.000
<v Speaker 1>But it's there is a difference if it is people

790
00:40:48.039 --> 00:40:52.239
<v Speaker 1>who are just you know, posting online or you know,

791
00:40:52.480 --> 00:40:56.320
<v Speaker 1>influencers here and there, podcasters, streamers, whoever it may be,

792
00:40:56.559 --> 00:41:00.159
<v Speaker 1>there's a difference between those people and elected officials and

793
00:41:00.239 --> 00:41:02.599
<v Speaker 1>leaders in the Democratic Party. And if you're a leader

794
00:41:02.599 --> 00:41:05.320
<v Speaker 1>in the Democratic Party, you're an elected official. You set

795
00:41:05.360 --> 00:41:08.920
<v Speaker 1>the example for everyone else to follow. And if random

796
00:41:08.960 --> 00:41:12.159
<v Speaker 1>person with a couple hundred thousand followers on Twitter is like, no,

797
00:41:12.280 --> 00:41:13.960
<v Speaker 1>I'm not voting for Abduel or I'm not voting for

798
00:41:14.000 --> 00:41:16.719
<v Speaker 1>Hailey Stevens, whatever, there's nothing we can all do about that.

799
00:41:16.800 --> 00:41:18.880
<v Speaker 1>You know, we can shame that person, yell at them,

800
00:41:18.920 --> 00:41:20.440
<v Speaker 1>try to convince them to do whatever you want, but

801
00:41:20.519 --> 00:41:21.960
<v Speaker 1>like you're going to get that that's just going to

802
00:41:22.000 --> 00:41:24.679
<v Speaker 1>happen in primaries. We don't have to like amplify that

803
00:41:24.760 --> 00:41:28.519
<v Speaker 1>a ton because then it'll just cause everything to be worse.

804
00:41:28.800 --> 00:41:32.079
<v Speaker 1>But elected officials like Hillary Schulton should not have said

805
00:41:32.079 --> 00:41:35.360
<v Speaker 1>that like that, And there's there's not an elected official

806
00:41:35.599 --> 00:41:38.039
<v Speaker 1>on Abdul side who has said something similar. There just

807
00:41:38.079 --> 00:41:41.199
<v Speaker 1>hasn't been And like to Hailey Stevens' credit, she hasn't

808
00:41:41.199 --> 00:41:43.719
<v Speaker 1>said anything like that. Her other elected officials who are

809
00:41:43.719 --> 00:41:46.119
<v Speaker 1>supporting out and said that. But like for Hillary Schulton

810
00:41:46.199 --> 00:41:49.519
<v Speaker 1>to say that is just unbelievably unhelpful, unproductive. And what

811
00:41:49.559 --> 00:41:52.519
<v Speaker 1>you were saying by telling people that is that if

812
00:41:52.599 --> 00:41:56.119
<v Speaker 1>Abdul wins the primary, then somehow you'd rather Mike Rogers

813
00:41:56.840 --> 00:42:01.119
<v Speaker 1>be the Senator. Mike Rogers, who is a Trump supporting

814
00:42:01.519 --> 00:42:04.400
<v Speaker 1>healthcare cutting, like all of the all of the right

815
00:42:04.400 --> 00:42:06.960
<v Speaker 1>wing Trump positions, who would vote for a Trump nominated

816
00:42:07.000 --> 00:42:09.599
<v Speaker 1>to the Supreme Court. You would rather that person happen

817
00:42:09.679 --> 00:42:13.079
<v Speaker 1>to win the race and then try hard to go

818
00:42:13.159 --> 00:42:16.400
<v Speaker 1>out there and make sure that Abdul wins the Senate race.

819
00:42:16.480 --> 00:42:17.880
<v Speaker 1>And I just think that's ridiculous.

820
00:42:18.000 --> 00:42:21.760
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's it is not it's not constructive. It's maybe

821
00:42:21.800 --> 00:42:22.719
<v Speaker 2>the nicest way to say.

822
00:42:22.519 --> 00:42:24.480
<v Speaker 1>It's not constructing. Again, it's like if you are a

823
00:42:24.559 --> 00:42:27.440
<v Speaker 1>leader in the I mean, we don't tend to endorse

824
00:42:27.519 --> 00:42:30.199
<v Speaker 1>in races we are in this one because we we

825
00:42:30.239 --> 00:42:33.039
<v Speaker 1>know Abdul and have worked with him. But like I've

826
00:42:33.039 --> 00:42:36.639
<v Speaker 1>said from the beginning, Hailey Stevens wins, I am all

827
00:42:36.639 --> 00:42:39.199
<v Speaker 1>in for Hailey Stevens, and like I don't agree with it,

828
00:42:39.199 --> 00:42:41.480
<v Speaker 1>that doesn't mean I suddenly change my mind and agree

829
00:42:41.519 --> 00:42:44.119
<v Speaker 1>with her position on Israel. I don't, but like she

830
00:42:44.320 --> 00:42:48.199
<v Speaker 1>is far in a way better than Mike Rogers, and

831
00:42:48.280 --> 00:42:51.039
<v Speaker 1>I'm be very comfortable voting for her and supporting her

832
00:42:51.079 --> 00:42:52.840
<v Speaker 1>and doing whatever I can to make sure she wins.

833
00:42:53.159 --> 00:42:54.840
<v Speaker 2>You know I would donate. I would if she wins

834
00:42:54.840 --> 00:42:57.519
<v Speaker 2>the primary on Tuesday night, I will donate to her

835
00:42:57.599 --> 00:42:58.800
<v Speaker 2>before I breakas on Lee's Day.

836
00:42:58.679 --> 00:43:01.639
<v Speaker 1>Morton for sure. And you look, people will forget this.

837
00:43:01.679 --> 00:43:03.360
<v Speaker 1>But like you and I had this conversation a million

838
00:43:03.400 --> 00:43:05.800
<v Speaker 1>times back on the whole Platinum Mills thing where we're

839
00:43:05.800 --> 00:43:07.960
<v Speaker 1>like Janet Mills wins this primary, we are all for

840
00:43:08.039 --> 00:43:10.000
<v Speaker 1>Janet Mills. We'll go up to main and knock on doors,

841
00:43:10.079 --> 00:43:11.559
<v Speaker 1>right like we are on the team here.

842
00:43:12.239 --> 00:43:14.039
<v Speaker 2>And did you just get did someone cattle project that

843
00:43:14.039 --> 00:43:17.280
<v Speaker 2>we hadn't mentioned Platner in this podcast. I was just saying,

844
00:43:17.320 --> 00:43:19.360
<v Speaker 2>like this is going too well. We haven't engendered any

845
00:43:19.360 --> 00:43:20.199
<v Speaker 2>hatred just yet.

846
00:43:20.119 --> 00:43:24.159
<v Speaker 1>Let's I am. I am trying to because I really

847
00:43:24.519 --> 00:43:27.159
<v Speaker 1>I just I have these we have this primary here

848
00:43:27.199 --> 00:43:29.400
<v Speaker 1>in Wisconsin and Michigan that this is happening for but

849
00:43:29.440 --> 00:43:31.159
<v Speaker 1>like we're gonna look ahead, this is gonna happen in

850
00:43:31.159 --> 00:43:33.920
<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty eight. I'm trying to practice what we preach,

851
00:43:34.159 --> 00:43:37.000
<v Speaker 1>set an example, and hope that everyone else in positions

852
00:43:37.000 --> 00:43:40.159
<v Speaker 1>of influence and leadership in this party does the same thing.

853
00:43:40.519 --> 00:43:45.000
<v Speaker 1>Because if we turn around and just you either want

854
00:43:45.039 --> 00:43:49.360
<v Speaker 1>to win or you want to fight right, or you

855
00:43:49.360 --> 00:43:51.039
<v Speaker 1>want and then you want to be right, so that

856
00:43:51.159 --> 00:43:54.000
<v Speaker 1>like after someone loses that you didn't want to win,

857
00:43:54.039 --> 00:43:55.880
<v Speaker 1>you can say, oh see, I was right all along.

858
00:43:56.079 --> 00:43:59.000
<v Speaker 1>Like is that going to feel more satisfying than having

859
00:43:59.199 --> 00:44:02.000
<v Speaker 1>a democratic Senate, democratic House, a democratic president. That's something

860
00:44:02.039 --> 00:44:02.880
<v Speaker 1>you have to ask yourself.

861
00:44:03.079 --> 00:44:06.679
<v Speaker 2>For people insulated from the consequences of politics, it probably will.

862
00:44:06.719 --> 00:44:09.360
<v Speaker 2>But for the people Michigan, people of America, absolutely not right.

863
00:44:09.360 --> 00:44:11.199
<v Speaker 1>So you can post later that like you were right

864
00:44:11.280 --> 00:44:13.760
<v Speaker 1>all along. And again this goes for We've seen it.

865
00:44:13.800 --> 00:44:15.679
<v Speaker 1>We've been doing this for ten years. We've seen it

866
00:44:15.719 --> 00:44:17.679
<v Speaker 1>on both sides. We've seen sore lose it on the

867
00:44:17.719 --> 00:44:21.599
<v Speaker 1>left and the center left. Anyway, what are your thoughts

868
00:44:21.599 --> 00:44:23.960
<v Speaker 1>on the on the electability arguments from both sides, because

869
00:44:24.000 --> 00:44:27.400
<v Speaker 1>I do think in this race it has been tricky

870
00:44:27.760 --> 00:44:31.320
<v Speaker 1>to figure out to make an electability case, partly because

871
00:44:31.440 --> 00:44:34.360
<v Speaker 1>I think there's been such a lack of high quality polling.

872
00:44:34.920 --> 00:44:39.039
<v Speaker 2>It is. There is one poll from the Michigan Education Association,

873
00:44:39.079 --> 00:44:42.440
<v Speaker 2>a business group that circulated it last week or earlier

874
00:44:42.440 --> 00:44:46.800
<v Speaker 2>this week that showed Hailey Stevens doing much better against

875
00:44:47.320 --> 00:44:50.159
<v Speaker 2>Mike Rodgers, beating Mike Rodgers and by fair amount, and

876
00:44:50.159 --> 00:44:53.039
<v Speaker 2>Abdul losing to Mike Rodgers verma Correctly, I don't know

877
00:44:53.079 --> 00:44:57.719
<v Speaker 2>if that poll is correct. The Republicans do believe privately

878
00:44:57.719 --> 00:44:59.920
<v Speaker 2>and publicly that Abdul will be easier to beat than

879
00:45:00.000 --> 00:45:00.599
<v Speaker 2>Holly Stevens.

880
00:45:00.679 --> 00:45:02.760
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, if you look at their real Clear Politics average,

881
00:45:02.800 --> 00:45:08.119
<v Speaker 1>it has Stevens point five over Rogers and Abdul point

882
00:45:08.159 --> 00:45:11.599
<v Speaker 1>five over Rogers, exactly the same. And then the basically

883
00:45:11.599 --> 00:45:14.400
<v Speaker 1>the entire electibility gap comes from that poll that you

884
00:45:14.480 --> 00:45:17.239
<v Speaker 1>just mentioned. I'm kind of surprised that Emerson didn't pull

885
00:45:17.639 --> 00:45:21.320
<v Speaker 1>the general. Yes, like they just pulled the primary and

886
00:45:21.320 --> 00:45:22.599
<v Speaker 1>they didn't give us a fucking general.

887
00:45:22.639 --> 00:45:26.760
<v Speaker 2>It can come on guys, and similar thing with the

888
00:45:26.920 --> 00:45:29.519
<v Speaker 2>but we'll get to WISCONSONMENTA. We've seen similar things with

889
00:45:29.559 --> 00:45:31.440
<v Speaker 2>some poles that could do that. I'm surprised, yeah, I'm

890
00:45:31.440 --> 00:45:34.880
<v Speaker 2>surprised they didn't do that. Like hypothetical general election polling

891
00:45:34.920 --> 00:45:38.800
<v Speaker 2>is quite flawed, but the people whose job it is

892
00:45:38.840 --> 00:45:40.920
<v Speaker 2>to win elections on the publican side believe and they

893
00:45:40.920 --> 00:45:42.760
<v Speaker 2>could be wrong. They absolutely could be wrong. They do,

894
00:45:44.119 --> 00:45:46.079
<v Speaker 2>and they've spent money to try to do that. There's

895
00:45:46.079 --> 00:45:47.719
<v Speaker 2>so much money being spent on the Hilly Steven side

896
00:45:47.719 --> 00:45:49.519
<v Speaker 2>that it hasn't really mattered that much. But they have

897
00:45:49.599 --> 00:45:56.199
<v Speaker 2>tried to boost Abdul in this race, and so I

898
00:45:56.199 --> 00:45:58.679
<v Speaker 2>can make an electability argument for both of them. I've

899
00:45:58.679 --> 00:46:02.159
<v Speaker 2>done it in my newsletter. I think it is theoretical

900
00:46:02.400 --> 00:46:06.400
<v Speaker 2>self fulfilling bullshit in most cases. The one thing I'd

901
00:46:06.400 --> 00:46:11.719
<v Speaker 2>say is for Abdul there is he's he. He has

902
00:46:11.840 --> 00:46:15.360
<v Speaker 2>more statements and more positions in his life. They can

903
00:46:15.400 --> 00:46:19.239
<v Speaker 2>be demogogue by Republicans, and Hilly Stephens does for sure

904
00:46:19.280 --> 00:46:22.159
<v Speaker 2>outside of his reas well. I was gonna say that

905
00:46:22.280 --> 00:46:25.440
<v Speaker 2>the challenge for Hailey Stephens is what makes her a

906
00:46:25.559 --> 00:46:29.039
<v Speaker 2>moderate in this race is that She is more moderate

907
00:46:29.159 --> 00:46:31.280
<v Speaker 2>than Abdul on a whole bunch of issues that I

908
00:46:31.400 --> 00:46:34.880
<v Speaker 2>care for, all abolish ice, but she is you know,

909
00:46:34.880 --> 00:46:36.559
<v Speaker 2>she voted with Joe Biden I think one hundred percent

910
00:46:36.559 --> 00:46:38.880
<v Speaker 2>of the time, and so she is more moderate a

911
00:46:38.880 --> 00:46:41.840
<v Speaker 2>than Abdul, but she's not. This is not Joe Manchin

912
00:46:42.039 --> 00:46:44.800
<v Speaker 2>or Jared Golden or something like that. What makes her

913
00:46:44.880 --> 00:46:48.119
<v Speaker 2>out were the one issue where she is not sort

914
00:46:48.119 --> 00:46:50.480
<v Speaker 2>of swimming with the stream in the Democratic Party right

915
00:46:50.480 --> 00:46:51.440
<v Speaker 2>now is on Israel.

916
00:46:51.480 --> 00:46:53.599
<v Speaker 1>She is one of the more foremost or you could

917
00:46:53.599 --> 00:46:54.599
<v Speaker 1>say the Michigan electorate.

918
00:46:55.079 --> 00:46:56.639
<v Speaker 2>And that was what That's what I was saying, is

919
00:46:57.280 --> 00:47:01.440
<v Speaker 2>what the thing that gets lost in the conversation about

920
00:47:01.440 --> 00:47:04.119
<v Speaker 2>the changing public opinion on Israel is that the biggest

921
00:47:04.159 --> 00:47:09.039
<v Speaker 2>shift is not Democrats, it's independence. And we have not

922
00:47:09.039 --> 00:47:11.639
<v Speaker 2>seen Michigan specific polling on that, but I would imagine

923
00:47:12.119 --> 00:47:15.960
<v Speaker 2>it's at least comparatible to the national polling or more

924
00:47:16.000 --> 00:47:18.280
<v Speaker 2>stark than that. And so that is a challenge and

925
00:47:19.840 --> 00:47:22.679
<v Speaker 2>for Abdul to win, like in this Emerson poll, he

926
00:47:22.800 --> 00:47:27.239
<v Speaker 2>is losing black voters by thirty points. Now, I'm confident

927
00:47:27.280 --> 00:47:30.119
<v Speaker 2>that most of those black voters would prefer Abdul over

928
00:47:30.239 --> 00:47:33.039
<v Speaker 2>Mike Rodgers. But you just have to turn them out.

929
00:47:33.079 --> 00:47:34.920
<v Speaker 2>It's not just that they whether they choose you or

930
00:47:34.920 --> 00:47:37.559
<v Speaker 2>not or prefer you. And then for Hailey Stevens, the

931
00:47:37.639 --> 00:47:40.000
<v Speaker 2>heart going to be a very challenging thing to get

932
00:47:40.920 --> 00:47:45.119
<v Speaker 2>youth turnout in Michigan, a state with huge colleges in

933
00:47:45.199 --> 00:47:48.800
<v Speaker 2>Lansing and Arbor. When you when you are have the

934
00:47:48.840 --> 00:47:51.360
<v Speaker 2>position you have on Israel, and your campaign's been bankrolled

935
00:47:51.760 --> 00:47:53.920
<v Speaker 2>to the tune of like sixty million dollars from a

936
00:47:54.039 --> 00:47:57.199
<v Speaker 2>pack and so these are challenges for both of them,

937
00:47:57.239 --> 00:47:59.079
<v Speaker 2>but neither of them win. To go back to original

938
00:47:59.119 --> 00:48:01.480
<v Speaker 2>point if before, we're not completely unified in this race

939
00:48:01.519 --> 00:48:03.480
<v Speaker 2>because Mike Rodgers is a very good opponent. This is

940
00:48:03.480 --> 00:48:06.039
<v Speaker 2>a fifty to fifty state. I think both of them

941
00:48:06.079 --> 00:48:08.199
<v Speaker 2>can win, but they both have challenges.

942
00:48:08.360 --> 00:48:12.039
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I agree. So things are no more pleasant in Wisconsin,

943
00:48:12.639 --> 00:48:16.079
<v Speaker 1>where Democratic socialist Francesca Houng seems to have the nomination

944
00:48:16.119 --> 00:48:18.840
<v Speaker 1>for governor wrapped up, despite a last minute attempt by

945
00:48:18.840 --> 00:48:22.159
<v Speaker 1>the state's Democratic establishment to stop her. She's crushing in

946
00:48:22.199 --> 00:48:25.880
<v Speaker 1>all the polls. Former Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes just dropped

947
00:48:25.880 --> 00:48:29.119
<v Speaker 1>out a couple hours before we started recording, and David Crowley,

948
00:48:29.400 --> 00:48:32.079
<v Speaker 1>who quit the race and then re entered the race

949
00:48:33.039 --> 00:48:37.079
<v Speaker 1>the other week with Governor Ever's endorsement, is still stuck

950
00:48:37.119 --> 00:48:40.960
<v Speaker 1>around ten to fifteen percent in the polls. A lot

951
00:48:41.000 --> 00:48:43.840
<v Speaker 1>of Democrats worried about this race with Hang as the nominee,

952
00:48:44.000 --> 00:48:47.519
<v Speaker 1>based on some pretty fire out there old statements, tweets,

953
00:48:47.719 --> 00:48:51.400
<v Speaker 1>policy positions. She once called for abolishing the Senate, then

954
00:48:51.440 --> 00:48:54.119
<v Speaker 1>her campaign said she never did, but the tweet does

955
00:48:54.119 --> 00:48:58.000
<v Speaker 1>in fact exist. She once called for abolishing prisons and police,

956
00:48:58.039 --> 00:49:01.719
<v Speaker 1>though now says those aren't her current positions. She even

957
00:49:01.719 --> 00:49:05.400
<v Speaker 1>had a twenty twenty tweet about abolishing Thanksgiving, calling it

958
00:49:05.480 --> 00:49:09.119
<v Speaker 1>quote the original super spreader event that killed indigenous folk

959
00:49:09.360 --> 00:49:15.559
<v Speaker 1>and women folk there spelled folx dan. What do you

960
00:49:15.559 --> 00:49:16.679
<v Speaker 1>think of Hung's chances?

961
00:49:17.119 --> 00:49:20.840
<v Speaker 2>Well, if the polls are correct, she is almost certainly

962
00:49:20.840 --> 00:49:22.880
<v Speaker 2>going to be the Democratic nominee. There have been two

963
00:49:22.880 --> 00:49:25.119
<v Speaker 2>polls out this week where she is up by more

964
00:49:25.119 --> 00:49:30.039
<v Speaker 2>than twenty points and has veryhi favorability, So it seems

965
00:49:30.039 --> 00:49:32.519
<v Speaker 2>like she using to be a Democratic nominee. This is

966
00:49:32.599 --> 00:49:36.360
<v Speaker 2>a very very hard race. It is she, as you

967
00:49:36.400 --> 00:49:41.079
<v Speaker 2>point out, is a democratic socialist. Democratic socialists have a

968
00:49:41.440 --> 00:49:45.960
<v Speaker 2>minus twenty one I think approval rating in Wisconsin minus

969
00:49:45.960 --> 00:49:48.320
<v Speaker 2>twenty three percent, Democrats of minus twenty one percent, Magas

970
00:49:48.400 --> 00:49:51.719
<v Speaker 2>of minus nineteen percent. No one's doing great, but so

971
00:49:52.320 --> 00:49:55.639
<v Speaker 2>Democratic socialism. She has these positions that can be demagogued.

972
00:49:56.000 --> 00:49:58.639
<v Speaker 2>In addition to Wisconsin, like I just said, I said

973
00:49:58.639 --> 00:50:01.239
<v Speaker 2>Michigan was a fifty to fifty state. Wisconsin is the

974
00:50:01.360 --> 00:50:03.679
<v Speaker 2>swing state. It has been decided by want less than

975
00:50:03.719 --> 00:50:06.000
<v Speaker 2>one point in five of the last seven presidential elections.

976
00:50:06.519 --> 00:50:10.880
<v Speaker 2>Anne Hong is running to succeed a two term Democratic

977
00:50:10.920 --> 00:50:14.519
<v Speaker 2>governor in a change election, so she can absolutely win,

978
00:50:14.920 --> 00:50:16.480
<v Speaker 2>Like this is a you're a fifty to fifty state.

979
00:50:16.519 --> 00:50:19.280
<v Speaker 2>The political environment based on the Papoleon we just had

980
00:50:19.320 --> 00:50:21.599
<v Speaker 2>a summer between six to eleven points Democratic, so you

981
00:50:21.679 --> 00:50:24.159
<v Speaker 2>have some margin for error there. But it's going to

982
00:50:24.199 --> 00:50:25.880
<v Speaker 2>take some real work and she's going to have to

983
00:50:25.880 --> 00:50:28.960
<v Speaker 2>be very smart in depth. And everyone I know who

984
00:50:29.000 --> 00:50:31.280
<v Speaker 2>knows her, Amanda Littman was talking about her with me

985
00:50:31.639 --> 00:50:33.480
<v Speaker 2>because she's a run for Something candidate when she was

986
00:50:33.519 --> 00:50:36.320
<v Speaker 2>on this podcast a couple weekends ago, that she is

987
00:50:36.360 --> 00:50:39.599
<v Speaker 2>incredibly bright. She's obviously ran an incredible primary campaign. She's

988
00:50:39.599 --> 00:50:41.760
<v Speaker 2>a very good campaigner, and she's going to have to

989
00:50:41.840 --> 00:50:45.159
<v Speaker 2>run essentially a flawless campaigned and navigate these issues to

990
00:50:45.199 --> 00:50:47.199
<v Speaker 2>the end. But if she does that, she can win.

991
00:50:47.239 --> 00:50:49.199
<v Speaker 2>But it's it's hard. It's obviously hard. It was gonna

992
00:50:49.199 --> 00:50:50.599
<v Speaker 2>be a hard race matter who the nominee is. It's

993
00:50:50.599 --> 00:50:52.280
<v Speaker 2>probably a little bit harder with her as the nominee.

994
00:50:52.320 --> 00:50:54.639
<v Speaker 1>Here's one other thing I'd like to see from her,

995
00:50:55.079 --> 00:50:57.960
<v Speaker 1>and to an extent, Abdul as well, if he ends

996
00:50:58.000 --> 00:51:02.039
<v Speaker 1>up being the nominee. Like I've said this before, that

997
00:51:02.679 --> 00:51:06.800
<v Speaker 1>you know you have old tweets. You know woke one

998
00:51:06.920 --> 00:51:10.159
<v Speaker 1>was crazy and twenty twenty people had a lot of

999
00:51:10.159 --> 00:51:14.159
<v Speaker 1>crazy tweets, And if you want to disavow them, great.

1000
00:51:14.960 --> 00:51:16.639
<v Speaker 1>I just think there needs to be a little more

1001
00:51:16.679 --> 00:51:20.280
<v Speaker 1>like so. Haung was asked by jmar after the debate

1002
00:51:20.639 --> 00:51:21.239
<v Speaker 1>whether she's.

1003
00:51:21.079 --> 00:51:24.320
<v Speaker 2>Said, Jonathan Martin from political Jonathan Martin, it's hard.

1004
00:51:24.280 --> 00:51:26.280
<v Speaker 1>For those who haven't had their brains broken about politics

1005
00:51:26.320 --> 00:51:29.840
<v Speaker 1>for the last yes so many years, whether she still

1006
00:51:29.840 --> 00:51:35.480
<v Speaker 1>supports the goal, the aspirational goal of abolishing prisons. And

1007
00:51:37.480 --> 00:51:40.960
<v Speaker 1>the answer has got to be just no, just no, no,

1008
00:51:41.079 --> 00:51:44.760
<v Speaker 1>I don't and it was she didn't say she supports it,

1009
00:51:44.960 --> 00:51:47.480
<v Speaker 1>but it was sort of a long winding answer and

1010
00:51:47.639 --> 00:51:51.760
<v Speaker 1>about you know, overincarceration and all these things that are true, right, Like,

1011
00:51:52.119 --> 00:51:55.280
<v Speaker 1>we overincarceerate people, our prisons, the conditions they are terrible.

1012
00:51:55.400 --> 00:51:58.639
<v Speaker 1>We put people in jail for nonviolent crimes that they

1013
00:51:58.679 --> 00:52:00.679
<v Speaker 1>shouldn't be in jail for, right, Like, all of that

1014
00:52:00.719 --> 00:52:04.480
<v Speaker 1>stuff is true. But when someone asks you, do you

1015
00:52:04.519 --> 00:52:06.800
<v Speaker 1>think that we should defund the police? The answer is no,

1016
00:52:07.960 --> 00:52:11.159
<v Speaker 1>do we think do you think that we should abolish prisons? No?

1017
00:52:11.480 --> 00:52:13.039
<v Speaker 1>Do should we abolish police departments?

1018
00:52:13.360 --> 00:52:13.519
<v Speaker 3>No?

1019
00:52:13.840 --> 00:52:15.400
<v Speaker 1>Should we abolish borders?

1020
00:52:15.840 --> 00:52:16.000
<v Speaker 3>No?

1021
00:52:16.760 --> 00:52:19.400
<v Speaker 1>And what about you said that before? So what was

1022
00:52:19.400 --> 00:52:22.159
<v Speaker 1>that tweet about? I was wrong? I was wrong. I

1023
00:52:22.159 --> 00:52:24.079
<v Speaker 1>tweeted something back then. I have thought about it, and

1024
00:52:24.119 --> 00:52:27.480
<v Speaker 1>you know what, it's wrong. That's it. And like, I

1025
00:52:27.480 --> 00:52:29.559
<v Speaker 1>don't think Abdul has done that well enough on defund

1026
00:52:30.239 --> 00:52:32.320
<v Speaker 1>and I think he can. He needs to fix that

1027
00:52:32.360 --> 00:52:35.000
<v Speaker 1>if he runs the general. And I think certainly she

1028
00:52:35.079 --> 00:52:38.519
<v Speaker 1>has a whole bunch for Jessica Hog of positions like that,

1029
00:52:38.719 --> 00:52:41.599
<v Speaker 1>because and look, and the left will say, well, they

1030
00:52:41.639 --> 00:52:45.559
<v Speaker 1>have very popular positions on healthcare and data centers stuff

1031
00:52:45.559 --> 00:52:48.119
<v Speaker 1>like that, Yes they do, and those positions they don't

1032
00:52:48.119 --> 00:52:49.760
<v Speaker 1>have to worry about as much, and they should spend

1033
00:52:49.800 --> 00:52:52.679
<v Speaker 1>the campaign emphasizing them. But in order for voters to

1034
00:52:52.760 --> 00:52:56.480
<v Speaker 1>hear your positions on those issues, they need to feel

1035
00:52:56.519 --> 00:53:00.079
<v Speaker 1>comfortable that on those other issues, on the group of

1036
00:53:00.079 --> 00:53:02.239
<v Speaker 1>abolish issues. That keeps getting a lot of these DSA

1037
00:53:02.320 --> 00:53:06.119
<v Speaker 1>people in trouble that you just disavowed them and you've

1038
00:53:06.199 --> 00:53:06.920
<v Speaker 1>changed your mind.

1039
00:53:07.199 --> 00:53:09.079
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, that's exactly right. You have to be very you

1040
00:53:09.119 --> 00:53:13.320
<v Speaker 2>have to look, you have to reckon with the reality

1041
00:53:13.559 --> 00:53:16.400
<v Speaker 2>of the race you're running. If you are running in

1042
00:53:16.480 --> 00:53:20.239
<v Speaker 2>a district that Kamala Harris won by fifty points in

1043
00:53:20.360 --> 00:53:23.679
<v Speaker 2>Manhattan or Colorado, that's one world. If you're running statewide

1044
00:53:23.719 --> 00:53:26.239
<v Speaker 2>in Michigan or Wisconsin, that is a very different world

1045
00:53:26.280 --> 00:53:29.239
<v Speaker 2>than You're going to have to be very clear and

1046
00:53:29.599 --> 00:53:32.239
<v Speaker 2>that your primary win, you know, if the polls are correct,

1047
00:53:32.239 --> 00:53:34.199
<v Speaker 2>both of their primary win is going to be incredibly impressive.

1048
00:53:34.800 --> 00:53:38.480
<v Speaker 2>But that tells you very little about how you're going

1049
00:53:38.519 --> 00:53:40.360
<v Speaker 2>to do in the general and the new and the

1050
00:53:40.400 --> 00:53:41.880
<v Speaker 2>whole set of voters you're now going to have to

1051
00:53:41.880 --> 00:53:45.119
<v Speaker 2>go persuade, and then it's going to require a shift

1052
00:53:45.159 --> 00:53:48.800
<v Speaker 2>in strategy. H a change in not a change in

1053
00:53:48.840 --> 00:53:51.079
<v Speaker 2>like what you actually believe are your values. But how

1054
00:53:51.119 --> 00:53:53.719
<v Speaker 2>you talk, But how you talk you have to be.

1055
00:53:54.199 --> 00:53:55.800
<v Speaker 2>You have to think that now I have to persuade

1056
00:53:55.800 --> 00:53:57.760
<v Speaker 2>a whole bunch of people who disagree with me on

1057
00:53:57.800 --> 00:53:59.920
<v Speaker 2>a lot of things to support me. And what you

1058
00:54:00.000 --> 00:54:01.639
<v Speaker 2>can do that by ampasizing the things they do agree

1059
00:54:01.639 --> 00:54:05.320
<v Speaker 2>with you on, like healthcare being a human right, universal

1060
00:54:05.320 --> 00:54:07.000
<v Speaker 2>health care in whatever form you're choosing to be, in

1061
00:54:07.320 --> 00:54:09.119
<v Speaker 2>a lot of stuff that data centers, a lot of

1062
00:54:09.119 --> 00:54:13.719
<v Speaker 2>stuff at statewide for Francesca hang in about education in Wisconsin,

1063
00:54:13.760 --> 00:54:15.760
<v Speaker 2>like that can work, but you do there are some

1064
00:54:15.840 --> 00:54:19.360
<v Speaker 2>barriers you have to get over, and you're going tens

1065
00:54:19.400 --> 00:54:23.480
<v Speaker 2>of millions of dollars will be spent throwing your old positions,

1066
00:54:23.519 --> 00:54:26.199
<v Speaker 2>your old statements, your old tweets in your face on

1067
00:54:26.239 --> 00:54:29.159
<v Speaker 2>a daily basis, and you're going to have to do

1068
00:54:29.239 --> 00:54:32.239
<v Speaker 2>what Kamala Harris was unwilling to do in twenty twenty four,

1069
00:54:32.280 --> 00:54:37.039
<v Speaker 2>which is explicitly go out and say clearly and repeatedly,

1070
00:54:37.719 --> 00:54:38.800
<v Speaker 2>I would change my mind.

1071
00:54:39.320 --> 00:54:42.760
<v Speaker 1>Here's why. Yeah, because here's what doesn't work. Just trying

1072
00:54:42.800 --> 00:54:44.519
<v Speaker 1>to change the issue again because you don't want to

1073
00:54:44.559 --> 00:54:49.039
<v Speaker 1>talk about healthcare and no, doesn't work. Doesn't work. People

1074
00:54:49.559 --> 00:54:52.000
<v Speaker 1>can read, they can see the positions, they will watch

1075
00:54:52.039 --> 00:54:54.119
<v Speaker 1>the videotape of you saying whatever, they will read the

1076
00:54:54.159 --> 00:54:57.519
<v Speaker 1>old tweets, and there needs to be video of you

1077
00:54:57.639 --> 00:55:00.880
<v Speaker 1>out there giving an explanation. And I don't want to

1078
00:55:00.880 --> 00:55:02.719
<v Speaker 1>hear that the ex because we hear this in the

1079
00:55:02.760 --> 00:55:04.880
<v Speaker 1>fuck from the Harris campaign that it didn't test well.

1080
00:55:04.920 --> 00:55:06.559
<v Speaker 1>None of the responses tested well. Of course they're not

1081
00:55:06.559 --> 00:55:09.440
<v Speaker 1>going to test well. You're responding to something that is

1082
00:55:09.559 --> 00:55:14.000
<v Speaker 1>unbelievably unpopular, so it's not going to test well. It's

1083
00:55:14.039 --> 00:55:15.400
<v Speaker 1>just something that you have to say.

1084
00:55:16.119 --> 00:55:18.280
<v Speaker 2>Abdill got this question on CNN. He refewed he would

1085
00:55:18.320 --> 00:55:20.000
<v Speaker 2>not say he know our support to fund place. He

1086
00:55:20.039 --> 00:55:21.639
<v Speaker 2>said a bunch of words that I think he thought

1087
00:55:21.639 --> 00:55:23.679
<v Speaker 2>in his head added up to that, but it was

1088
00:55:23.719 --> 00:55:26.239
<v Speaker 2>not clear and basically seemed like he refused to answer

1089
00:55:26.239 --> 00:55:28.840
<v Speaker 2>whether he still supported it. You knew who was very

1090
00:55:28.840 --> 00:55:32.360
<v Speaker 2>clear about this, zoraon Mumdani when he was running.

1091
00:55:32.119 --> 00:55:33.480
<v Speaker 1>I was just going to say, like, if you don't

1092
00:55:33.480 --> 00:55:34.679
<v Speaker 1>want to listen to us because we're a bunch of

1093
00:55:34.719 --> 00:55:38.360
<v Speaker 1>fucking centrist Neil Obama shills, like go just watch some

1094
00:55:38.440 --> 00:55:42.559
<v Speaker 1>tape of AOC and Zora Mumdani. Right, the heroes of

1095
00:55:42.599 --> 00:55:46.400
<v Speaker 1>the left. Just watch watch the tape and you'll see

1096
00:55:46.400 --> 00:55:48.760
<v Speaker 1>that they exactly what you just said, that they know

1097
00:55:48.840 --> 00:55:50.119
<v Speaker 1>exactly how to talk about this stuff.

1098
00:55:50.239 --> 00:55:51.920
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, he just they asked you still support and he

1099
00:55:51.960 --> 00:55:54.320
<v Speaker 2>said no. And that was New York City, not Michigan.

1100
00:55:54.599 --> 00:55:57.320
<v Speaker 1>Right. Yeah, it's good, easier for him there than it's

1101
00:55:57.360 --> 00:55:59.159
<v Speaker 1>going to be in Michigan in Wisconsin, for sure.

1102
00:56:06.840 --> 00:56:09.039
<v Speaker 5>There's a new show from the Guardian called Stateside with

1103
00:56:09.119 --> 00:56:11.679
<v Speaker 5>Kai and Carter. The idea is pretty simple. Slow things down,

1104
00:56:11.719 --> 00:56:14.079
<v Speaker 5>focus on one story, ask the questions you're probably already

1105
00:56:14.159 --> 00:56:17.039
<v Speaker 5>yelling at your phone, and by the end actually feel

1106
00:56:17.079 --> 00:56:19.760
<v Speaker 5>like you understand what's going on. They're digging into everything

1107
00:56:19.800 --> 00:56:22.920
<v Speaker 5>from authoritarianism to the rise of people dating AI chatbots.

1108
00:56:23.239 --> 00:56:25.920
<v Speaker 5>No fluff, no pretending everything is fine, just smart conversations

1109
00:56:25.920 --> 00:56:29.000
<v Speaker 5>and sharp reporting. The show pulls from The Guardian's Global newsroom,

1110
00:56:29.119 --> 00:56:31.719
<v Speaker 5>so you're getting covered across politics, culture, a climate and more,

1111
00:56:31.719 --> 00:56:35.119
<v Speaker 5>plus conversations with big thinkers and newsmakers. Join Kai Write

1112
00:56:35.119 --> 00:56:37.000
<v Speaker 5>and Carter Sherman three times a week as they try

1113
00:56:37.000 --> 00:56:39.519
<v Speaker 5>to make sense of all this. New episodes drop every Monday,

1114
00:56:39.519 --> 00:56:42.000
<v Speaker 5>Wednesday and Friday. You can watch on YouTube or listen

1115
00:56:42.039 --> 00:56:43.920
<v Speaker 5>wherever you get your podcasts.

1116
00:56:48.719 --> 00:56:50.880
<v Speaker 1>Okay, one last piece of bad news on the midterms

1117
00:56:50.920 --> 00:56:53.920
<v Speaker 1>before we get to some other bad news. Elon Musk

1118
00:56:53.920 --> 00:56:56.920
<v Speaker 1>says he's going to spend at least one hundred million dollars.

1119
00:56:57.519 --> 00:56:59.760
<v Speaker 1>Elon's back. He's got one hundred million dollars that he's

1120
00:56:59.760 --> 00:57:02.320
<v Speaker 1>going to spend to help Republican candidates in the fall.

1121
00:57:03.199 --> 00:57:05.519
<v Speaker 1>So much for starting that third party. How big of

1122
00:57:05.519 --> 00:57:06.440
<v Speaker 1>a deal do you think this is?

1123
00:57:06.840 --> 00:57:09.559
<v Speaker 2>I think this is fucking great. Probably have such a

1124
00:57:09.559 --> 00:57:12.280
<v Speaker 2>financial advantage that one hundred million dollars. It's basically like

1125
00:57:12.320 --> 00:57:13.639
<v Speaker 2>spitting in the ocean at this point.

1126
00:57:13.679 --> 00:57:15.800
<v Speaker 1>Honestly, what we need. That was my first instinct. But

1127
00:57:15.840 --> 00:57:17.000
<v Speaker 1>I'm glad that you think that too.

1128
00:57:17.199 --> 00:57:18.880
<v Speaker 2>Like that all the world's richest man is going to

1129
00:57:18.880 --> 00:57:20.400
<v Speaker 2>spend one hundred million dollars like he could put it.

1130
00:57:20.400 --> 00:57:22.920
<v Speaker 2>He could put five billion dollars in if he wanted,

1131
00:57:22.960 --> 00:57:26.000
<v Speaker 2>and it would be nothing to him. Let's make Elon

1132
00:57:26.079 --> 00:57:27.719
<v Speaker 2>must the face of a lot of these Republicans. He's

1133
00:57:27.760 --> 00:57:29.760
<v Speaker 2>incredibly unpopular. It allows you to talk about dough, She

1134
00:57:29.880 --> 00:57:31.559
<v Speaker 2>allows you to talk about AI, which we're about to

1135
00:57:31.599 --> 00:57:33.440
<v Speaker 2>get to it allows you to talk about big tech.

1136
00:57:34.000 --> 00:57:37.000
<v Speaker 2>It is like corruption everything else, Like, well, put him

1137
00:57:37.039 --> 00:57:37.599
<v Speaker 2>front and center.

1138
00:57:37.800 --> 00:57:41.039
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, well, speaking of AI. A couple of these candidates,

1139
00:57:41.719 --> 00:57:45.719
<v Speaker 1>in particular Francesca Hong, have made opposition to AI data

1140
00:57:45.719 --> 00:57:48.760
<v Speaker 1>centers a focal point of their campaigns, and this week

1141
00:57:48.800 --> 00:57:51.599
<v Speaker 1>it was really easy to understand why putting limits on

1142
00:57:51.639 --> 00:57:55.280
<v Speaker 1>the AI industry is so appealing to people. As some

1143
00:57:55.360 --> 00:57:57.480
<v Speaker 1>of you may have seen or heard, a new model

1144
00:57:57.480 --> 00:58:01.280
<v Speaker 1>from open ai escaped it's so called sandbox. What's a sandbox?

1145
00:58:01.360 --> 00:58:05.880
<v Speaker 1>While that's basically a lockdown server with no Internet where

1146
00:58:05.920 --> 00:58:11.840
<v Speaker 1>it was undergoing testing and secretly escaped the sandbox reached

1147
00:58:11.880 --> 00:58:15.760
<v Speaker 1>the Internet and hacked into a separate AI platform called

1148
00:58:15.840 --> 00:58:20.599
<v Speaker 1>hugging Face in order to score better on a cybersecurity evaluation.

1149
00:58:21.559 --> 00:58:24.400
<v Speaker 1>Open Ai CEO Sam Altman said it was quote the

1150
00:58:24.440 --> 00:58:28.239
<v Speaker 1>first security incident that I have felt very viscerally good.

1151
00:58:28.280 --> 00:58:28.679
<v Speaker 1>I'm glad.

1152
00:58:28.800 --> 00:58:31.199
<v Speaker 2>Can I say one thing about that that is the

1153
00:58:31.280 --> 00:58:34.760
<v Speaker 2>scariest thing of that is the AI model left notes

1154
00:58:34.960 --> 00:58:37.320
<v Speaker 2>in the server to itself because they thought it would

1155
00:58:37.320 --> 00:58:42.480
<v Speaker 2>be destroyed after this. Basically like, here's how I did it,

1156
00:58:42.519 --> 00:58:45.760
<v Speaker 2>so future versions of me can do this, and I

1157
00:58:45.800 --> 00:58:48.880
<v Speaker 2>saw someone say that if this AI agent was a person,

1158
00:58:48.920 --> 00:58:51.039
<v Speaker 2>they would have been convicted of many, many crimes.

1159
00:58:51.280 --> 00:58:54.159
<v Speaker 1>I'm sure, yeah, but not Sam. Sam just felt it

1160
00:58:54.239 --> 00:58:57.039
<v Speaker 1>very viscerally. He seems to be moving toward favoring some

1161
00:58:57.119 --> 00:59:00.800
<v Speaker 1>kind of centralized controls on AI development, kind of slowly,

1162
00:59:01.880 --> 00:59:04.599
<v Speaker 1>as do Trump. The founders of Anthropic and more than

1163
00:59:04.639 --> 00:59:07.000
<v Speaker 1>a thousand employees of those companies who signed an open

1164
00:59:07.039 --> 00:59:10.400
<v Speaker 1>letter this week the State, but not Mark Zuckerberg. But

1165
00:59:10.440 --> 00:59:14.760
<v Speaker 1>not Mark Zuckerberg, that little fuck who's out there being like, oh,

1166
00:59:14.800 --> 00:59:17.519
<v Speaker 1>all these guys want centralized control, and I just want

1167
00:59:17.559 --> 00:59:20.840
<v Speaker 1>everyone to have their own AI, and I want everyone

1168
00:59:20.880 --> 00:59:24.280
<v Speaker 1>to be free to have their own private, personalized AI,

1169
00:59:24.440 --> 00:59:27.719
<v Speaker 1>because I'm for that freedom, and they're for central control.

1170
00:59:27.880 --> 00:59:30.639
<v Speaker 1>Because all the fucking people that Meta has hired on

1171
00:59:30.679 --> 00:59:33.760
<v Speaker 1>their payroll, Democrats and Republicans to like run their pr

1172
00:59:33.800 --> 00:59:37.000
<v Speaker 1>campaign on AI, realized that the advantage that they could

1173
00:59:37.000 --> 00:59:40.119
<v Speaker 1>have is to paint Anthropic and open AI and all

1174
00:59:40.159 --> 00:59:42.119
<v Speaker 1>the rest of them is this centralized control. And then

1175
00:59:42.199 --> 00:59:44.079
<v Speaker 1>Meta just wants everyone to be free and have their

1176
00:59:44.119 --> 00:59:47.320
<v Speaker 1>own AI. Well, everyone having their own AI that isn't

1177
00:59:48.119 --> 00:59:50.079
<v Speaker 1>tested and that can just run and do whatever the

1178
00:59:50.079 --> 00:59:54.559
<v Speaker 1>fuck it wants. Isn't freedom, It's fucking anarchy.

1179
00:59:54.920 --> 00:59:55.360
<v Speaker 2>Not great.

1180
00:59:55.679 --> 00:59:59.320
<v Speaker 1>That's my Mark Sockerberg thing. I cannot stand him. So

1181
00:59:59.519 --> 01:00:02.079
<v Speaker 1>the statement, I was like all excited that all these employees,

1182
01:00:02.480 --> 01:00:06.039
<v Speaker 1>including meta open AI anthropics, signed this letter. The statement

1183
01:00:06.039 --> 01:00:08.880
<v Speaker 1>in the letter is, we request that the US government

1184
01:00:08.960 --> 01:00:12.480
<v Speaker 1>support an international effort to develop the technical and governance

1185
01:00:12.559 --> 01:00:17.679
<v Speaker 1>tools needed to deliberately pace the frontier of automated AI development.

1186
01:00:20.480 --> 01:00:26.199
<v Speaker 2>Whoo, it's an impossible thing to do. Like the other

1187
01:00:26.239 --> 01:00:28.960
<v Speaker 2>people making AI are the Chinese. Trump and a national

1188
01:00:28.960 --> 01:00:30.760
<v Speaker 2>tale Vice address like three weeks ago to accuse him

1189
01:00:30.760 --> 01:00:31.840
<v Speaker 2>of interfering in our election.

1190
01:00:33.000 --> 01:00:35.639
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, whatever happened with that? Altman himself went to Capitol

1191
01:00:35.719 --> 01:00:38.079
<v Speaker 1>Hill this week to meet and have a fancy dinner

1192
01:00:38.119 --> 01:00:40.719
<v Speaker 1>with concerned senators who probably had no idea what was

1193
01:00:40.760 --> 01:00:43.360
<v Speaker 1>going on, which is all well and good, except that

1194
01:00:43.360 --> 01:00:47.400
<v Speaker 1>what the public keeps hearing from the AI bros is

1195
01:00:47.639 --> 01:00:48.239
<v Speaker 1>shit like this.

1196
01:00:49.519 --> 01:00:51.119
<v Speaker 7>Well, we need to explain the world. Number one, we

1197
01:00:51.159 --> 01:00:53.519
<v Speaker 7>are close to creating the genie that can grant any wish.

1198
01:00:54.239 --> 01:00:57.880
<v Speaker 7>Number two, we are going to make sure that our

1199
01:00:58.000 --> 01:01:02.159
<v Speaker 7>first wishes broadly benefit humanity. We are now like in

1200
01:01:02.199 --> 01:01:04.920
<v Speaker 7>this singularity, like this is the moment from the last

1201
01:01:05.000 --> 01:01:05.639
<v Speaker 7>ten years ago.

1202
01:01:05.840 --> 01:01:13.400
<v Speaker 10>This was like a kind of far off dream. At best,

1203
01:01:13.599 --> 01:01:16.960
<v Speaker 10>it seemed very improbable. And now we're like actually in

1204
01:01:17.000 --> 01:01:19.039
<v Speaker 10>the moment that we used to like talk about at

1205
01:01:19.039 --> 01:01:21.039
<v Speaker 10>the lunch table in a very not serious way.

1206
01:01:21.280 --> 01:01:23.559
<v Speaker 5>I think there's still a ten to twenty percent chance

1207
01:01:23.599 --> 01:01:26.599
<v Speaker 5>that killer robots mean the end of humanity.

1208
01:01:28.719 --> 01:01:33.440
<v Speaker 1>That's a high p doo. As they say, well, in

1209
01:01:33.480 --> 01:01:37.119
<v Speaker 1>the long run, we're all dead, of course. Yeah, in

1210
01:01:37.159 --> 01:01:41.360
<v Speaker 1>the long run we're all dead, of course, good pointing one,

1211
01:01:41.599 --> 01:01:43.159
<v Speaker 1>But how about the short run? Can we not be

1212
01:01:43.199 --> 01:01:44.239
<v Speaker 1>dead in the short run too?

1213
01:01:45.519 --> 01:01:46.840
<v Speaker 2>I mean, that's the point. If you're gonna be dead

1214
01:01:46.840 --> 01:01:48.800
<v Speaker 2>in the long run while you're worrying about the short run.

1215
01:01:49.800 --> 01:01:52.000
<v Speaker 1>You've been thinking about this one for a while. Uh,

1216
01:01:52.760 --> 01:01:55.840
<v Speaker 1>what should democrats be doing? Insane about this because it

1217
01:01:55.920 --> 01:02:00.199
<v Speaker 1>seems like no one is running this rodeo here.

1218
01:02:00.480 --> 01:02:07.880
<v Speaker 2>AI is the technological, economic, cultural, sociological health issue of

1219
01:02:07.920 --> 01:02:11.320
<v Speaker 2>our time. It threatens to change everything about how we live,

1220
01:02:12.400 --> 01:02:16.360
<v Speaker 2>and it is something that people have a growing fear

1221
01:02:16.400 --> 01:02:20.320
<v Speaker 2>and concern about, and it is in a credibly polarized world.

1222
01:02:20.360 --> 01:02:23.199
<v Speaker 2>There is a complete jump ball between the parties. The

1223
01:02:23.280 --> 01:02:25.599
<v Speaker 2>most recent pupil ask people in a battery of issues

1224
01:02:25.880 --> 01:02:29.400
<v Speaker 2>which party they trusted more. Twenty three percent trusted Republicans,

1225
01:02:29.480 --> 01:02:31.639
<v Speaker 2>twenty two percent trusted Democrats, and fifty one percent said

1226
01:02:31.719 --> 01:02:35.920
<v Speaker 2>neither party. People are crying out for leadership in our

1227
01:02:36.079 --> 01:02:39.639
<v Speaker 2>calcified politics. This is the one opportunity to completely reshape

1228
01:02:39.639 --> 01:02:42.239
<v Speaker 2>how people think about the party if one party can

1229
01:02:42.239 --> 01:02:45.639
<v Speaker 2>step up, take a leadership role here, stand up, be

1230
01:02:45.840 --> 01:02:48.760
<v Speaker 2>strong about the risks here, have an actual vision for

1231
01:02:48.800 --> 01:02:50.960
<v Speaker 2>how you regulate it, for how you deal with data centers,

1232
01:02:50.960 --> 01:02:53.239
<v Speaker 2>how you pay for this, how you protect people from

1233
01:02:53.280 --> 01:02:57.679
<v Speaker 2>the economics and social downsides of this. Like this is

1234
01:02:57.400 --> 01:03:01.159
<v Speaker 2>this is the issue Democrats have been There are exceptions,

1235
01:03:01.199 --> 01:03:07.519
<v Speaker 2>but Democrats have been largely silent or sort of nebulous

1236
01:03:07.519 --> 01:03:10.079
<v Speaker 2>about our position on it. That's for a couple of reasons.

1237
01:03:10.119 --> 01:03:12.000
<v Speaker 2>One is we have a lot of old Democrats, like

1238
01:03:12.039 --> 01:03:13.719
<v Speaker 2>I don't know if you saw the interview that Jim

1239
01:03:13.760 --> 01:03:16.280
<v Speaker 2>Clyburn did with sted Herndon on his podcast where he

1240
01:03:16.320 --> 01:03:19.960
<v Speaker 2>found he admitted he found outbout Chuchibt last week. This

1241
01:03:20.039 --> 01:03:22.079
<v Speaker 2>is one of the most prominent Democrats in the House.

1242
01:03:22.760 --> 01:03:25.920
<v Speaker 2>And another reason is a lot of candidates are very

1243
01:03:25.960 --> 01:03:29.320
<v Speaker 2>worried about the highly funded AI super PACs coming in

1244
01:03:29.320 --> 01:03:30.800
<v Speaker 2>and dumping a whole bunch of money against them, like

1245
01:03:30.800 --> 01:03:33.239
<v Speaker 2>they did to Alex Boris at the House race primary

1246
01:03:33.239 --> 01:03:36.440
<v Speaker 2>in New York. And the third reason is on data centers.

1247
01:03:36.480 --> 01:03:39.159
<v Speaker 2>There are complicated politics for some Democrats because while two

1248
01:03:39.199 --> 01:03:41.239
<v Speaker 2>thirds of the public does not want a data center

1249
01:03:41.360 --> 01:03:45.119
<v Speaker 2>in their community, labor unions and particularly the building trades

1250
01:03:45.199 --> 01:03:48.199
<v Speaker 2>very much want to be building data centers. The reason

1251
01:03:48.239 --> 01:03:50.719
<v Speaker 2>this is a huge opportunity and a necessity for Democrats

1252
01:03:50.800 --> 01:03:52.519
<v Speaker 2>is one, it is the issue when you should be

1253
01:03:52.519 --> 01:03:55.920
<v Speaker 2>talking about the issue. Two, it is an amazing point

1254
01:03:55.960 --> 01:03:59.800
<v Speaker 2>of contrast with Trump and the Republicans because Donald Trump's

1255
01:03:59.800 --> 01:04:02.559
<v Speaker 2>fall if he is to let the AI bros As

1256
01:04:02.599 --> 01:04:06.880
<v Speaker 2>you call them, who have given Trump millions and millions

1257
01:04:06.880 --> 01:04:08.960
<v Speaker 2>of dollars to him, both politically and personally, do whatever

1258
01:04:09.000 --> 01:04:11.760
<v Speaker 2>they want. Their philosophy has let AI cook and he

1259
01:04:11.760 --> 01:04:13.639
<v Speaker 2>wants to build a data center on every corner. Just

1260
01:04:13.679 --> 01:04:15.880
<v Speaker 2>the report in the New York Times this week that

1261
01:04:16.039 --> 01:04:19.239
<v Speaker 2>he wants to give federal land for the to use

1262
01:04:19.360 --> 01:04:22.840
<v Speaker 2>repurpose federal land for the construction of data centers like

1263
01:04:22.920 --> 01:04:33.159
<v Speaker 2>we could be the smart, authentic passionate populist voice here

1264
01:04:33.400 --> 01:04:36.679
<v Speaker 2>arguing for a sensible solution, and we just that has

1265
01:04:36.719 --> 01:04:38.000
<v Speaker 2>on happened. I hope this is a I hope this

1266
01:04:38.039 --> 01:04:39.599
<v Speaker 2>has talked about it in every twenty twenty eight debate.

1267
01:04:39.800 --> 01:04:41.719
<v Speaker 2>Hope this has talked about all the time, like this

1268
01:04:41.840 --> 01:04:44.119
<v Speaker 2>is the thing, and that we have an opportunity and

1269
01:04:44.199 --> 01:04:46.239
<v Speaker 2>an obligational lead, and we have not done it yet.

1270
01:04:46.400 --> 01:04:51.840
<v Speaker 1>Here's the other tricky dynamic that we have watched unfold

1271
01:04:51.920 --> 01:04:57.800
<v Speaker 1>since the beginning of this debate is when people raise

1272
01:04:57.840 --> 01:05:01.719
<v Speaker 1>their voices, whether it's the the people who run these

1273
01:05:01.800 --> 01:05:04.159
<v Speaker 1>AI companies themselves or the people who work there, or

1274
01:05:04.199 --> 01:05:07.000
<v Speaker 1>experts or politicians or whatever it may be, and say,

1275
01:05:07.480 --> 01:05:10.400
<v Speaker 1>slow down, be careful. We got to put some guardrails

1276
01:05:10.400 --> 01:05:15.440
<v Speaker 1>on the inevitable answer you get from people who want

1277
01:05:15.480 --> 01:05:20.280
<v Speaker 1>to just keep going as fast as possible is, but China,

1278
01:05:21.360 --> 01:05:24.039
<v Speaker 1>and we can't lose the AI race because we don't

1279
01:05:24.039 --> 01:05:27.760
<v Speaker 1>want If we slow down, China won't slow down, and

1280
01:05:27.800 --> 01:05:30.320
<v Speaker 1>then they'll have all the advanced AI and then we

1281
01:05:30.360 --> 01:05:34.719
<v Speaker 1>won't have it, and then they will dominate, you know, militarily, economically,

1282
01:05:34.880 --> 01:05:38.039
<v Speaker 1>et cetera, et cetera. And I think democrats have to

1283
01:05:38.039 --> 01:05:40.960
<v Speaker 1>figure out how to grapple with that, because I've heard

1284
01:05:40.960 --> 01:05:45.840
<v Speaker 1>some Democrats who are more favorable towards AI make that argument,

1285
01:05:46.360 --> 01:05:50.519
<v Speaker 1>some of the more like national security minded, centrist minded democrats.

1286
01:05:50.559 --> 01:05:53.960
<v Speaker 1>And I mean, you mentioned the AI packs and all

1287
01:05:54.000 --> 01:05:55.760
<v Speaker 1>the other things, but I do think there's a genuine

1288
01:05:55.760 --> 01:05:59.039
<v Speaker 1>belief among some people who are like you know, have

1289
01:05:59.199 --> 01:06:02.360
<v Speaker 1>the best motivations, that they're just like worried about China,

1290
01:06:02.800 --> 01:06:05.440
<v Speaker 1>which is and I think that the only way that

1291
01:06:05.480 --> 01:06:09.039
<v Speaker 1>we're actually going to not kill each other with these

1292
01:06:09.079 --> 01:06:12.280
<v Speaker 1>things these have the robots kill us all is for

1293
01:06:12.400 --> 01:06:15.559
<v Speaker 1>like an international effort here, an international diplomacy, which we're

1294
01:06:15.559 --> 01:06:17.800
<v Speaker 1>not going to have with this president at all. But

1295
01:06:17.880 --> 01:06:19.960
<v Speaker 1>I do think like there is no way you're going

1296
01:06:20.000 --> 01:06:24.199
<v Speaker 1>to be able to transition to this AI era without

1297
01:06:24.400 --> 01:06:28.039
<v Speaker 1>like real strong diplomacy and some kind of international framework

1298
01:06:28.079 --> 01:06:31.599
<v Speaker 1>on this, because otherwise, every time someone tries to stop

1299
01:06:31.960 --> 01:06:34.840
<v Speaker 1>AI here or slow it down, the industry and other

1300
01:06:34.840 --> 01:06:36.400
<v Speaker 1>people are just going to say, no, no, you can't do that,

1301
01:06:36.440 --> 01:06:38.760
<v Speaker 1>because China is just going to raise ahead you.

1302
01:06:39.039 --> 01:06:43.559
<v Speaker 2>Obviously AI is happening. It is like the genie that

1303
01:06:43.639 --> 01:06:45.880
<v Speaker 2>Sad Moment said, we can make is out the model

1304
01:06:47.159 --> 01:06:49.320
<v Speaker 2>and you have to, but you have to find a

1305
01:06:49.320 --> 01:06:52.679
<v Speaker 2>way to do it in a way that is safe,

1306
01:06:53.519 --> 01:06:58.559
<v Speaker 2>that where there's actual, real thinking about the policy consequences

1307
01:06:58.599 --> 01:07:02.519
<v Speaker 2>that are other than just the use of the energy costs.

1308
01:07:02.599 --> 01:07:04.199
<v Speaker 2>How is that being paid for? Because that's the big

1309
01:07:04.199 --> 01:07:06.920
<v Speaker 2>thing that these data centers is jacking up electricity prices

1310
01:07:06.960 --> 01:07:10.880
<v Speaker 2>everywhere with the environmental consequences of that, and perhaps probably

1311
01:07:10.920 --> 01:07:12.880
<v Speaker 2>most importantly or most relevant a lot of people, what

1312
01:07:12.920 --> 01:07:14.519
<v Speaker 2>are we doing for the lots of people who could

1313
01:07:14.519 --> 01:07:15.639
<v Speaker 2>lose their jobs because of this?

1314
01:07:16.639 --> 01:07:17.440
<v Speaker 1>Like that? We are could?

1315
01:07:17.559 --> 01:07:18.079
<v Speaker 2>We are fait?

1316
01:07:18.320 --> 01:07:18.519
<v Speaker 5>Yeah?

1317
01:07:18.559 --> 01:07:22.079
<v Speaker 2>I mean well we are we are fit this. We're

1318
01:07:22.119 --> 01:07:25.559
<v Speaker 2>at a situation now where we saw what happened with

1319
01:07:25.639 --> 01:07:29.239
<v Speaker 2>globalization and automation that sounds like rock Obama right now,

1320
01:07:29.239 --> 01:07:34.480
<v Speaker 2>but in the eighties, and what that did to huge

1321
01:07:34.480 --> 01:07:38.000
<v Speaker 2>parts of the country, to entire classes of people. There

1322
01:07:38.079 --> 01:07:39.719
<v Speaker 2>is we see it coming. It's going to be a

1323
01:07:39.760 --> 01:07:42.239
<v Speaker 2>different class of people this time, and how do we

1324
01:07:42.280 --> 01:07:45.719
<v Speaker 2>prepare for that? What can we do? And obviously the

1325
01:07:46.159 --> 01:07:48.480
<v Speaker 2>real sick irony here is we can't teach them to code,

1326
01:07:48.599 --> 01:07:51.159
<v Speaker 2>because that's his AI's taken that we have to teach

1327
01:07:51.159 --> 01:07:53.119
<v Speaker 2>the people to code to do something else. I guess,

1328
01:07:53.119 --> 01:07:55.559
<v Speaker 2>but there is like this is just a.

1329
01:07:57.280 --> 01:07:57.880
<v Speaker 1>We see it.

1330
01:07:57.840 --> 01:08:02.480
<v Speaker 2>Coming and we should be prepared possumptively. But politically, there's

1331
01:08:02.559 --> 01:08:05.599
<v Speaker 2>just this massive opportunity and obligation for Democrats. And I

1332
01:08:05.639 --> 01:08:07.800
<v Speaker 2>really hope that there is a twenty twenty eight candidate

1333
01:08:07.840 --> 01:08:10.599
<v Speaker 2>or candidates who take a real leadership role here.

1334
01:08:10.760 --> 01:08:14.360
<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's already here the job situation, because even

1335
01:08:14.360 --> 01:08:19.359
<v Speaker 1>if you're not seeing it in layoffs in a significant way,

1336
01:08:20.359 --> 01:08:26.359
<v Speaker 1>employment among young people in AI related industries or industries

1337
01:08:26.359 --> 01:08:29.119
<v Speaker 1>that AI could effect is already down fourteen to twenty

1338
01:08:29.159 --> 01:08:32.039
<v Speaker 1>percent over the last couple of years. And this is

1339
01:08:32.199 --> 01:08:34.520
<v Speaker 1>just the beginning. We're just getting going here, and it's

1340
01:08:34.560 --> 01:08:36.720
<v Speaker 1>going to get so much worse. And I also think

1341
01:08:36.720 --> 01:08:39.640
<v Speaker 1>that data centers aside, Like there's a whole conversation we

1342
01:08:39.640 --> 01:08:42.640
<v Speaker 1>had about data centers and everything you said, I agree

1343
01:08:42.680 --> 01:08:45.920
<v Speaker 1>with there, but the safety of these models, like there

1344
01:08:45.920 --> 01:08:48.199
<v Speaker 1>has to be regulation on. We can't just say like,

1345
01:08:48.680 --> 01:08:50.520
<v Speaker 1>oh wow, that one got out of the sandbox. And

1346
01:08:50.560 --> 01:08:52.800
<v Speaker 1>I really felt that one viscerally, and next time we're

1347
01:08:52.800 --> 01:08:54.880
<v Speaker 1>going to fix that. Like I mean, ted Lu has

1348
01:08:54.920 --> 01:08:58.159
<v Speaker 1>an AI kill switch bill, but that he introduced that

1349
01:08:58.239 --> 01:09:00.680
<v Speaker 1>a bunch of people signed on to that would require

1350
01:09:00.720 --> 01:09:03.039
<v Speaker 1>developers to have a means of shutting down their models.

1351
01:09:03.760 --> 01:09:06.119
<v Speaker 1>Of course, the industry doesn't support that for some reason.

1352
01:09:07.000 --> 01:09:10.319
<v Speaker 1>I think like Foon and Cruise and klobash Aar and

1353
01:09:10.399 --> 01:09:13.319
<v Speaker 1>can't well are working on in a frontier AI bill.

1354
01:09:13.399 --> 01:09:16.079
<v Speaker 1>But like so much of this shit is like voluntary

1355
01:09:16.119 --> 01:09:19.039
<v Speaker 1>regulation and all this kind of stuff, like you cannot

1356
01:09:19.079 --> 01:09:21.720
<v Speaker 1>have these models go out to market that are this

1357
01:09:21.840 --> 01:09:25.600
<v Speaker 1>powerful if they're not adequately tested that they're safe. I

1358
01:09:25.640 --> 01:09:27.840
<v Speaker 1>mean that is like that's more important than anything else,

1359
01:09:28.560 --> 01:09:33.520
<v Speaker 1>because that's that's that's like lights out for everyone. Anyway,

1360
01:09:33.720 --> 01:09:36.000
<v Speaker 1>Is there a is there a hopeful way to end this?

1361
01:09:38.079 --> 01:09:38.239
<v Speaker 3>Well?

1362
01:09:38.319 --> 01:09:38.600
<v Speaker 5>John?

1363
01:09:38.760 --> 01:09:41.319
<v Speaker 1>But also but look, we're all here's the thing, Dan,

1364
01:09:41.359 --> 01:09:43.960
<v Speaker 1>we're in the singularity now, the thing that Sam Altmon

1365
01:09:44.079 --> 01:09:46.880
<v Speaker 1>was just talking about, uh, you know, at the lunch table,

1366
01:09:47.199 --> 01:09:52.239
<v Speaker 1>and now we're here. So that's pretty cool. Yeah, we're

1367
01:09:52.279 --> 01:09:55.680
<v Speaker 1>in the singularity. The Michigan primaries Tuesday and Wisconsin's the

1368
01:09:55.720 --> 01:09:58.159
<v Speaker 1>next Tuesday. Things are things are looking up.

1369
01:09:58.760 --> 01:10:02.039
<v Speaker 2>Do you think I think the flaw on Sam Altman's

1370
01:10:02.159 --> 01:10:05.119
<v Speaker 2>genie argument is do you think they've accounted for the

1371
01:10:05.119 --> 01:10:06.800
<v Speaker 2>fact that the only smart thing to do if you

1372
01:10:06.800 --> 01:10:08.279
<v Speaker 2>get a genie with three wishes? Is you ask for

1373
01:10:08.319 --> 01:10:11.119
<v Speaker 2>unlimited wishes with your first wish?

1374
01:10:11.199 --> 01:10:14.239
<v Speaker 1>I've heard someone else actually make that say that about Ai,

1375
01:10:14.439 --> 01:10:16.159
<v Speaker 1>that it's the it's unlimited wishes.

1376
01:10:16.359 --> 01:10:20.399
<v Speaker 2>That it's like, Wow, it's not because the fucking tokens

1377
01:10:20.399 --> 01:10:23.800
<v Speaker 2>are quite expensive. So I think it's that onlimittered, Yeah,

1378
01:10:23.840 --> 01:10:26.079
<v Speaker 2>give me some freakive, give some tokens in every pot,

1379
01:10:26.159 --> 01:10:26.960
<v Speaker 2>Sam looking nice?

1380
01:10:27.039 --> 01:10:28.840
<v Speaker 1>Is a jen enough water and electricity to power a

1381
01:10:28.880 --> 01:10:31.560
<v Speaker 1>small town? Just for being like, hey chat, what should

1382
01:10:31.560 --> 01:10:34.680
<v Speaker 1>I do tonight? Hey Chat? Why am I feeling sad?

1383
01:10:35.520 --> 01:10:38.199
<v Speaker 1>That's just that's a whole town right there. Uh, that's

1384
01:10:38.199 --> 01:10:39.000
<v Speaker 1>our show for today.

1385
01:10:39.159 --> 01:10:39.319
<v Speaker 9>Love.

1386
01:10:39.359 --> 01:10:41.560
<v Speaker 1>It will be back in the feed on Sunday with

1387
01:10:41.640 --> 01:10:44.760
<v Speaker 1>the Bulwarks Jonathan b Last, Have a good weekend, everyone

1388
01:10:45.000 --> 01:10:47.840
<v Speaker 1>by everyone Pod Dave America is a Crooked Media production.

1389
01:10:47.960 --> 01:10:50.399
<v Speaker 1>Our show is produced by Austin Fisher, Saal Ruben, McKenna

1390
01:10:50.479 --> 01:10:52.920
<v Speaker 1>Roberts and Faris Safari with re Jerlin, Elijah Cone and

1391
01:10:52.960 --> 01:10:55.600
<v Speaker 1>Adrian Hill. Our team includes Matt de Grote, Ben Hefcote,

1392
01:10:55.640 --> 01:10:58.560
<v Speaker 1>Jordan Cantor, Charlotte Landis, Carol pell Avive, David Toles, Mia Kelman,

1393
01:10:58.640 --> 01:11:01.279
<v Speaker 1>Ryan Young, and Naomi Single. Our staff is probably unionized

1394
01:11:01.279 --> 01:11:02.640
<v Speaker 1>with the Writers Guild of America East