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Speaker 1: Bet on it right around the corner Christmas edition.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna get right into it with the guys. Oh boy,

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I can hear the comments section already, But it is

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Tuesday morning before Christmas, and I elected to give the

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entire video team Christmas Eve off, so we're recording early,

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which means you guys are getting a limited show here,

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and I don't want to hear about it because we're

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giving you guys our best bets.

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Speaker 3: Still.

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Speaker 2: Marco's still gonna put out his Deli video on Friday,

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and VR is gonna take Friday and give you guys

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a special edition of the Steam Room. So make sure

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you guys hang out right here on the wager Talking

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YouTube channel and check those out. But we're gonna give

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you guys best bets for week seventeen in the NFL

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because it is just too early. VR, you were talking

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about an off camera, so I'm gonna let you have

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the Florida explain why Tuesday morning we should not be

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giving out significant amounts of NFL bets.

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Speaker 4: No, because the truth is, we want to give actionable information,

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and the viewers and subscribers at wager Talk aren't like

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your guys that just got into sports betting, Like these

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guys are watching this show because they want to pick

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off some sharp information, something that they might have overlooked,

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something that they think may not be factored into the

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betting line. And this early in the week, we just

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don't have access to that much information. And I never

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want to put myself or the betters in a position

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where we're leaning one way without having all of the

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info available. And like you said, it's Tuesday, it's eight

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am here on the West Coast, and between now and kickoff,

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a lot's going to happen.

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Speaker 5: You got to remember, there's the.

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Speaker 4: Must win situations, the teams that don't care, the narratives

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between now and kickoff will be solidified, which isn't the

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case so far, and just to find out who's playing

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who's not playing. There's a lot that's going to go

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in to that betting line between now and Sunday. So

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I think it's the best move is just narrowed down

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that best bet that you know you're already firing, that

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you already got down on. That is fine. But to

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give a bunch of opinions without conviction. We're not here

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to waste the viewers time. We're here to give them winners.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, in years past we did a Christmas special, except

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for this year, the Commanders are playing with the third

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string quarterback. The Vikings are playing with the third quarterback,

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and so are the Kansas City Chiefs. I saw a

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funny thing in our slack channel earlier.

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Speaker 5: Someone was like smash or.

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Speaker 2: Pass, and they said, well, I'm passing on all of

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the Christmas games.

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Speaker 1: I'm not because I'm using Cowboys and Survivors. So pray

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for my family.

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Speaker 2: But I think that at that point in time, we've

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got a lot of teams on the outside of the

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playoffs looking in. Broncos are headed to the playoffs, but

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they still are going to want to beat up on

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the Chiefs. There's a lot to really unpack there as

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far as a betting perspective goes to VR. So I'm

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going to put you on the spot. Can you let

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us know for Christmas alone? What you have power rating wise,

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kind of give the viewers a little synopsis of maybe

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what a couple of those games.

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Speaker 1: Should look like. But to try to talk about a drop.

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Speaker 2: Off between eight first string quarterback like Patrick Mahomes and

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a third string quarterback now that Gardner Minshew is out,

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for the Kansas City Chiefs.

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Speaker 1: I mean, we're talking a significant line move here.

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Speaker 4: That's the problem, and you just don't have a big

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enough sample size to have any kind of conviction. That's

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the negative here, And as a better you have to

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take a pause and really answer yourself the question, am

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I getting the best of it by laying eleven to

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win ten? We already know it's hard enough to lay

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eleven to win ten. A half a percent of people

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on the planet or app have the ability to overcome

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that hole, so we know it's a very difficult thing

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to do. But now when you have a bunch of

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questions that you can't answer, like you're now going way

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out on the risk curve, but your return's not changing.

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That's the problem. We're still laying eleven to ten. So

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when it's a situation like that, you have to just

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let it go.

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Speaker 5: You have to pass.

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Speaker 4: You have to take a step back, look up on

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the board and say is this really the best spot

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that I could get my money down?

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Speaker 5: And that's the problem you're having to go look at

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Dallas Washington. Let's just start off with that game.

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Speaker 4: The look ahead was three, went to four, four and

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a half, six, six, and a half seven. When a

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ligne moves like that, your only option is has it

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moved too much in one direction to where? Now that's

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the value signed because you can't bet the favorite anymore.

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This is a show about betting plus ev situations, looking

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for winning bets, not looking to be the product of

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good luck. And you can't tell anyone out there that

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it's a good idea now to go out there in

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lay seven with Dallas when they could have laid three

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and a half, four, four and a half, five, five

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and a half, six, six and a half. So why

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were you waiting to lay seven? I know I've said

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this over and over and sounded like a broken record,

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but they betters continue to do it, so obviously the

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message isn't getting through. So with spots like that, you

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have to be able to tell yourself, I missed the boat.

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The trains left the station, So it's dog or passed.

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Do I like Washington right now against Dallas or don't I?

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If I, then it's automatic. And that's the situation here.

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You look at the treat Minnesota, the same look ahead

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was three and a half. Now you're looking at six

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Denver and Kansas City. The look ahead was five and

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a half. Now you're looking at thirteen thirteen and a half.

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So all of those games, the favorite has moved so significantly.

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Speaker 5: Unless you got out ahead of the market.

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Speaker 4: Your only choice now is their value on the dog

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or leave it alone. The negative there is the power

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ratings are going to reflect value on the dogs. Washington's

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power rated less than seven points, Minnesota's power rated less

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than six points, and Kansas City's power rated less than

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thirteen points obviously against Denver ro what's difficult to quantify

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is what's the motivation? Now forget the drop offs and

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the backups and who's playing, but now what are you

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playing for?

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Speaker 5: And that's so difficult to quantify.

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Speaker 4: That's the difficulty with the Christmas games, where you can

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find value other than play prompts, team totals that kind

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of stuff. Is wait until the public gets involved and

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knock some of these lines out of whack. That's the

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only way you could get down now if you haven't

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gotten out ahead of the market. Meaning again, I don't

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mean to go along, but if you have Dallas minus

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five in your pocket, you did your job. You have

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Detroit minus fiv in your pocket, you did your job.

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Denver minus a touchdown. You did your job. They got

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to go out there and do yours. There's nothing you

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can do about it. But where we stand right now

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Tuesday morning, it's too late to bet those favorites. We

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now have to sit back and wait and see does

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the public continue pushing those up where now there actually

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is some value on the dogs, or do they come

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in the other way and actually start betting some of

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these dogs, which now opens up value again on the favorites.

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But until the betting public gets involved starts moving some

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of these favorites and dogs, somebody's overs and unders. We

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just got to sit back and wait. That's the key

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over these holidays, because people are all from work. Pople

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have fat pockets or they're chasing fat pockets, and they're

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going to be bet in these games. They're going to

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bet in these standalone TV games. Rest a short and

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that money's going to move these lines. Sit back, wait

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for the feeding frenzy to begin, and then go in

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there and get your food.

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Speaker 5: There's no reason to rush. That's what I'm telling better

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is this week.

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Speaker 2: Kel Marco Clause, welcome into the show. You are the

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star of the show. Every Christmas edition about on it.

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I wanted to kind of get your opinion as well here,

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not only for the Christmas games, but we also have

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different situations, right It used to be Week sixteen and seventeen.

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Now it's Week sixteen, seventeen, and eighteen. We know there

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are teams eliminated from the playoffs. We know that these

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injury or reports are a mile long and we're not

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going to get them till Fridays generally.

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Speaker 1: And of course we know that you get a play spoiler.

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Speaker 2: For example, your Pittsburgh Steelers got a nice win, they're

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in Detroit and now they just have to go beat

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up on the lowly Browns that have nothing to play for.

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Kind of break down some of these situational spots what

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people should be looking at for this weekend. I know

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you're gonna do your Deli segment as well here on

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the way you're talking to YouTube channel on Friday, but

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I kind of wanted to get your idea of how

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to handicap these next two weeks from a situational perspective.

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Speaker 3: Well, Kelly, that's a perfect example the Cleveland Pittsburgh game

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on Sunday, because not only do you have the situation

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where Cleveland can play spoiler. It's their arch rival. They

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love to be able to prevent Pittsburgh from winning the

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division on Sunday. Now, how they can win the division

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on Sunday. Here gives you the other wrinkle, and it

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affects this game immensely. The line right now on that

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game is four Pittsburgh plays on Sunday, Baltimore plays on Saturday.

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If Baltimore gets beat on Saturday, it's over. Pittsburgh wins

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the division. They don't even have to play on Sunday.

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So now, when you're betting and handicapping and playing in advance,

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you're betting a game that maybe the Steelers are gonna

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pool people and not play starters if they don't have to.

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We don't know that until after the game on Saturday

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and what the Steelers decide to do Sunday morning. So

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that's another wrinkle. Do you want to guess and say, hey, yeah,

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Baltimore's gonna win on Saturday, and this game's gonna mean something.

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I guarantee you if Baltimore loses on Saturday, you're gonna

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see the line on Pittsburgh Cleveland crash absolutely, because it

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means nothing for the Steelers because they can't improve themselves.

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They're gonna be the worst division winner. They'll have the

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four seed no matter what happens. So that adds other intangibles.

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And as VR said, when you're talking the final few weeks,

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there's gonna be a boatload of teams that it's a

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must win that is always factored into the line. You're

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always gonna pay a premium for those teams, and oftentimes

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the value is actually on the other teams. Look last week, Buffalo,

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they're in must win mode. The rest of the way.

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They barely got by Cleveland, Dog covered Houston. They're fighting

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for position with the playoffs they're in, But are they

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gonna be the five to six or seven seed. They

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barely got by the lowly Raiders. So don't assume just

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because the team needs to win that they're gonna blow

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somebody out. There's a lot of value on the other side.

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So those are the things you gotta be careful about.

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One other tip I'll give you if you have two

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teams that are out of it, have nothing to play for.

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If I'm playing the total, there's only one way I'm

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playing the total. It's either an over in that game

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or nothing. And the reason for that is because if

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teams don't care and aren't gonna be motivated, you think, well,

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they're not gonna do anything. No everybody can score. It

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takes more effort to play defense than it does to

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play offense. Oftentimes, in these last couple weeks of the season,

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with two teams that are out of it, it ends

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up being like a flag football game like we see

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in All Star games. Nobody wants to get hurt. They're

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not going full bore and we'll go up and down

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the field. So just remember that rule late in the season,

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unless weather it becomes a factor with wind or something,

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two teams that are eliminated, it's over or past the game.

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Speaker 2: Great information for both Yanni the Greek and Marco Klaus.

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So we're gonna give you guys our best bets for

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this weekend, and obviously those are ones that we have

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the most of the information as well as some significant

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line value VR. I'm gonna let you go first kind

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of break it down. This was one I did yesterday

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with k IV and Crack already bet this total. Yeah,

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he gave it out live on the show, and I'm

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happy to know that you're on it as well.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Philly Buffalo under anything, forty four are better your gold.

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We went under forty five. Bottom line is this, you

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have two opposite teams, meaning the strength of these teams

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is opposite. Both power rated, you know, top five obviously

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Buffalo number one power rated team when it comes to

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the AFC. The difference is the offense and the defense

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because strength of schedule is very comparable. Philly had a

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tougher strength to schedule, but not all that much tougher.

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Speaker 5: But here's the difference maker.

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Speaker 4: Buffalo is a top three offense, Philly's a top three defense.

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Philly's barely a top fifteen offense. Buffalo's barely a top

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twenty defense. So Buffalo's the A side when it comes

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to defense to offense, Philly's the A sign when it

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comes to defense. Where we're getting value on this total

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is the recency bias of both these teams. You have

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a Buffalo team that's coming in having scored what twenty

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six or more in three of their last four. In fact,

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in five of their last six, they've been putting up

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a lot of points, three straight overs with only one

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of those totals below forty nine, So they've had high

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totals of late, and they've flown over those totals. Philadelphia

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coming off a high scoring game where they put up

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twenty nine points, they put up thirty one the week

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before that. But when in doubts, zoom out, and when

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we zoom out a little bit in Philadelphia, what do

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we see a bunch of low scoring games where that

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defense really showed up and the offense had a little

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bit of problems. Philly lost those three straight games in

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between there where they lost the Dallas, they lost to Chicago,

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they lost to the Chargers, all very close, more or

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less one score games because their defense kept it in there.

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That's gonna be the differentiator that makes this total lower

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scoring than that the narrative of two higher scoring teams

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00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:51,679
of late. That Philly defense is gonna give Buffalo problems

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even in Buffalo, and I think you're gonna get a

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lot slower paced game where they're not having that average

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number of plays that they're usually accustomed to. I think

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that Philadelphia defense is going to cause a lot of

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three and ounce. Look for the team with the last

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possession more or less to get the w low scoring

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forty four better go under.

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Speaker 5: That's my best bet for NFL this week.

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Speaker 2: I'll give you guys a little hint that's also gonna

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be in Marco's Deli video. I'm very excited to hear

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his breakdown and why there may be a trap scenario

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in that game.

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Speaker 1: So make sure you guys.

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Speaker 2: Check that out on Friday afternoon when it drops here

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on the wager Talk YouTube channel.

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Speaker 1: Marco, since your dress for the.

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Speaker 2: Occasion, I'm gonna let you give out our Christmas special

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00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:36,960
here on wager Talk.

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00:14:38,080 --> 00:14:43,240
Speaker 3: Oh Merry Christmas from wager Talk and what we are

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00:14:43,360 --> 00:14:47,399
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You can use it as many times as you want,

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00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:19,919
it doesn't matter if you've been naughty or nice. You

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could have been naughty like Kelly or nice like ace

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either way twenty five percent off this week at wager

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Talk and Kelly for my best bet this week, We're

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gonna go with a total as well, and I'm gonna

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take a look at the Carolina Seattle game. Now, we've

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got a total of forty two and a half in

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this game, and anyone that watched that Thursday night game

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last week between the Rams and Seattle, the last thing

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they're gonna want to do is bet an under in

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this game with that total that low. Seattle won thirty

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eight to thirty seven in a barn burner. Well got

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to point out, Carolina, isn't the La Rams gonna go

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up and down the field like they did Thursday night?

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The Rams did. Carolina has scored twenty three or less

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in seven of their last nine games, and now they're

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gonna be facing one of the NFL's top defenses. Carolina,

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on the flip side, has allowed twenty or less in

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five of their last seven games. Both teams are coming

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off big divisional games last week and have a big

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game on deck next week as well. I look for

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Seattle to get back to their power ground game. They

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have rushed for one hundred and fourteen or more yards

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in six of their last seven games. Seattle will chew

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00:16:43,200 --> 00:16:46,799
up clock by running the football. Carolina, on the flip side,

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00:16:46,840 --> 00:16:50,159
can run the football as well and shorten the game

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even more. I look at this game and I see

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thirty seven or less points in this one. We're gonna

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go ahead take the under. And I'll tell you go

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ahead and probably way on this one because the public

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is not going to bet the under on this one.

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00:17:04,279 --> 00:17:06,759
They'll probably tick it up a little bit for you.

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00:17:06,960 --> 00:17:10,200
But I like Carolina. Seattle under forty two and a

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00:17:10,279 --> 00:17:12,079
half is my best bet for this week.

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00:17:12,599 --> 00:17:16,039
Speaker 2: Oh boy, I also like a play in that game,

333
00:17:16,079 --> 00:17:18,799
but I did not get to the window with them

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just yet.

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Speaker 1: I will make sure to tweet that out for all

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of you guys.

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Speaker 2: But this is a game that I already did bet

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00:17:24,759 --> 00:17:27,039
plus five and a half. We all know that's my

339
00:17:27,119 --> 00:17:30,920
favorite line to bet in the NFL. The Dogs seem

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to be barking more at that number than any other one.

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Four and a half too. They bark a lot at

342
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four and a half, but five and a half down

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00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:43,079
to five. Now Tampa Bay on the road at Miami.

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Let's talk about that Tampa Bay team and well, they

345
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haven't covered seven straight games, and now I'm betting against them,

346
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but I did bet against them last week, and I

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told you guys that the Panthers are going to win,

348
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and they got it done. It for us at home,

349
00:17:56,799 --> 00:17:59,799
and take a page out of Marco Claus's book. They

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00:17:59,799 --> 00:18:03,640
are the Bucks, that is, are in a Panthers sandwich.

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00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:08,480
Not sure how much this game means right here for

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the Buccaneers. And I know to attack of Iloa, he's

353
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gone quinn Ewers.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, he leaves.

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Speaker 1: Less than to be desired.

356
00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:20,079
Speaker 2: But the Bucks, who have lost three straight to all

357
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division opponents, even though they held a second half lead

358
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in each, they just can't get it done. Baker Mayfield,

359
00:18:27,519 --> 00:18:29,799
the guy that I was screaming three months ago was

360
00:18:29,839 --> 00:18:32,799
the MVP, is having a hell of a time. He

361
00:18:32,839 --> 00:18:35,160
threw another interception for the third straight game, and of

362
00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:39,359
course that one last week sealed the deal against the Panthers.

363
00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:43,839
But man, it was just rough and it has been rough,

364
00:18:43,880 --> 00:18:47,640
and I don't see this Buccaneers team limping into the

365
00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:53,000
playoffs anymore. Marco mentioned games that matter, games that don't matter.

366
00:18:53,079 --> 00:18:55,880
Of course, these guys still want to play, but they've

367
00:18:55,920 --> 00:19:01,160
got the Panthers circled at home next week the division

368
00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:04,119
the Bucks scored less than twenty points or if you

369
00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:07,400
were in their last five games. I'm telling you right now,

370
00:19:07,440 --> 00:19:10,240
this is a Miami team that's struggling to score and

371
00:19:10,319 --> 00:19:15,119
looks awful. Guess what this is the place to score

372
00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:19,759
against this damage Buccaneers defense. Just take a peek at

373
00:19:19,759 --> 00:19:22,960
that injury list early on in the week. Give me

374
00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:26,559
the Dolphins plus five here to keep it close at

375
00:19:26,599 --> 00:19:27,440
home in Miami.

376
00:19:27,599 --> 00:19:30,480
Speaker 1: Again, I'm more all nervous about quinn yours, but it

377
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is what it is.

378
00:19:31,680 --> 00:19:34,680
Speaker 2: We will see possibly him play a little bit better

379
00:19:34,759 --> 00:19:38,200
in his second game, especially after getting crossed by the

380
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Bengals last week. Oof woof Marco Janni. I hope you

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guys have a very merry Christmas, and I hope all

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of you guys watching at home do as well.

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Speaker 1: Enjoy the time with your families.

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Speaker 2: But if you guys get a chance, make sure you

385
00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:54,319
head over to the Wager Talking YouTube channel. Check out

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00:19:54,519 --> 00:19:57,279
our college football bowl games that we like up until.

387
00:19:57,079 --> 00:19:59,480
Speaker 1: New Year's and of course the shortened edition of the

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Mega Show.

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Speaker 3: Oh