Speaker 1: Bet on it right around the corner Christmas edition.
Speaker 2: We're gonna get right into it with the guys. Oh boy,
I can hear the comments section already, But it is
Tuesday morning before Christmas, and I elected to give the
entire video team Christmas Eve off, so we're recording early,
which means you guys are getting a limited show here,
and I don't want to hear about it because we're
giving you guys our best bets.
Speaker 3: Still.
Speaker 2: Marco's still gonna put out his Deli video on Friday,
and VR is gonna take Friday and give you guys
a special edition of the Steam Room. So make sure
you guys hang out right here on the wager Talking
YouTube channel and check those out. But we're gonna give
you guys best bets for week seventeen in the NFL
because it is just too early. VR, you were talking
about an off camera, so I'm gonna let you have
the Florida explain why Tuesday morning we should not be
giving out significant amounts of NFL bets.
Speaker 4: No, because the truth is, we want to give actionable information,
and the viewers and subscribers at wager Talk aren't like
your guys that just got into sports betting, Like these
guys are watching this show because they want to pick
off some sharp information, something that they might have overlooked,
something that they think may not be factored into the
betting line. And this early in the week, we just
don't have access to that much information. And I never
want to put myself or the betters in a position
where we're leaning one way without having all of the
info available. And like you said, it's Tuesday, it's eight
am here on the West Coast, and between now and kickoff,
a lot's going to happen.
Speaker 5: You got to remember, there's the.
Speaker 4: Must win situations, the teams that don't care, the narratives
between now and kickoff will be solidified, which isn't the
case so far, and just to find out who's playing
who's not playing. There's a lot that's going to go
in to that betting line between now and Sunday. So
I think it's the best move is just narrowed down
that best bet that you know you're already firing, that
you already got down on. That is fine. But to
give a bunch of opinions without conviction. We're not here
to waste the viewers time. We're here to give them winners.
Speaker 2: Yeah, in years past we did a Christmas special, except
for this year, the Commanders are playing with the third
string quarterback. The Vikings are playing with the third quarterback,
and so are the Kansas City Chiefs. I saw a
funny thing in our slack channel earlier.
Speaker 5: Someone was like smash or.
Speaker 2: Pass, and they said, well, I'm passing on all of
the Christmas games.
Speaker 1: I'm not because I'm using Cowboys and Survivors. So pray
for my family.
Speaker 2: But I think that at that point in time, we've
got a lot of teams on the outside of the
playoffs looking in. Broncos are headed to the playoffs, but
they still are going to want to beat up on
the Chiefs. There's a lot to really unpack there as
far as a betting perspective goes to VR. So I'm
going to put you on the spot. Can you let
us know for Christmas alone? What you have power rating wise,
kind of give the viewers a little synopsis of maybe
what a couple of those games.
Speaker 1: Should look like. But to try to talk about a drop.
Speaker 2: Off between eight first string quarterback like Patrick Mahomes and
a third string quarterback now that Gardner Minshew is out,
for the Kansas City Chiefs.
Speaker 1: I mean, we're talking a significant line move here.
Speaker 4: That's the problem, and you just don't have a big
enough sample size to have any kind of conviction. That's
the negative here, And as a better you have to
take a pause and really answer yourself the question, am
I getting the best of it by laying eleven to
win ten? We already know it's hard enough to lay
eleven to win ten. A half a percent of people
on the planet or app have the ability to overcome
that hole, so we know it's a very difficult thing
to do. But now when you have a bunch of
questions that you can't answer, like you're now going way
out on the risk curve, but your return's not changing.
That's the problem. We're still laying eleven to ten. So
when it's a situation like that, you have to just
let it go.
Speaker 5: You have to pass.
Speaker 4: You have to take a step back, look up on
the board and say is this really the best spot
that I could get my money down?
Speaker 5: And that's the problem you're having to go look at
Dallas Washington. Let's just start off with that game.
Speaker 4: The look ahead was three, went to four, four and
a half, six, six, and a half seven. When a
ligne moves like that, your only option is has it
moved too much in one direction to where? Now that's
the value signed because you can't bet the favorite anymore.
This is a show about betting plus ev situations, looking
for winning bets, not looking to be the product of
good luck. And you can't tell anyone out there that
it's a good idea now to go out there in
lay seven with Dallas when they could have laid three
and a half, four, four and a half, five, five
and a half, six, six and a half. So why
were you waiting to lay seven? I know I've said
this over and over and sounded like a broken record,
but they betters continue to do it, so obviously the
message isn't getting through. So with spots like that, you
have to be able to tell yourself, I missed the boat.
The trains left the station, So it's dog or passed.
Do I like Washington right now against Dallas or don't I?
If I, then it's automatic. And that's the situation here.
You look at the treat Minnesota, the same look ahead
was three and a half. Now you're looking at six
Denver and Kansas City. The look ahead was five and
a half. Now you're looking at thirteen thirteen and a half.
So all of those games, the favorite has moved so significantly.
Speaker 5: Unless you got out ahead of the market.
Speaker 4: Your only choice now is their value on the dog
or leave it alone. The negative there is the power
ratings are going to reflect value on the dogs. Washington's
power rated less than seven points, Minnesota's power rated less
than six points, and Kansas City's power rated less than
thirteen points obviously against Denver ro what's difficult to quantify
is what's the motivation? Now forget the drop offs and
the backups and who's playing, but now what are you
playing for?
Speaker 5: And that's so difficult to quantify.
Speaker 4: That's the difficulty with the Christmas games, where you can
find value other than play prompts, team totals that kind
of stuff. Is wait until the public gets involved and
knock some of these lines out of whack. That's the
only way you could get down now if you haven't
gotten out ahead of the market. Meaning again, I don't
mean to go along, but if you have Dallas minus
five in your pocket, you did your job. You have
Detroit minus fiv in your pocket, you did your job.
Denver minus a touchdown. You did your job. They got
to go out there and do yours. There's nothing you
can do about it. But where we stand right now
Tuesday morning, it's too late to bet those favorites. We
now have to sit back and wait and see does
the public continue pushing those up where now there actually
is some value on the dogs, or do they come
in the other way and actually start betting some of
these dogs, which now opens up value again on the favorites.
But until the betting public gets involved starts moving some
of these favorites and dogs, somebody's overs and unders. We
just got to sit back and wait. That's the key
over these holidays, because people are all from work. Pople
have fat pockets or they're chasing fat pockets, and they're
going to be bet in these games. They're going to
bet in these standalone TV games. Rest a short and
that money's going to move these lines. Sit back, wait
for the feeding frenzy to begin, and then go in
there and get your food.
Speaker 5: There's no reason to rush. That's what I'm telling better
is this week.
Speaker 2: Kel Marco Clause, welcome into the show. You are the
star of the show. Every Christmas edition about on it.
I wanted to kind of get your opinion as well here,
not only for the Christmas games, but we also have
different situations, right It used to be Week sixteen and seventeen.
Now it's Week sixteen, seventeen, and eighteen. We know there
are teams eliminated from the playoffs. We know that these
injury or reports are a mile long and we're not
going to get them till Fridays generally.
Speaker 1: And of course we know that you get a play spoiler.
Speaker 2: For example, your Pittsburgh Steelers got a nice win, they're
in Detroit and now they just have to go beat
up on the lowly Browns that have nothing to play for.
Kind of break down some of these situational spots what
people should be looking at for this weekend. I know
you're gonna do your Deli segment as well here on
the way you're talking to YouTube channel on Friday, but
I kind of wanted to get your idea of how
to handicap these next two weeks from a situational perspective.
Speaker 3: Well, Kelly, that's a perfect example the Cleveland Pittsburgh game
on Sunday, because not only do you have the situation
where Cleveland can play spoiler. It's their arch rival. They
love to be able to prevent Pittsburgh from winning the
division on Sunday. Now, how they can win the division
on Sunday. Here gives you the other wrinkle, and it
affects this game immensely. The line right now on that
game is four Pittsburgh plays on Sunday, Baltimore plays on Saturday.
If Baltimore gets beat on Saturday, it's over. Pittsburgh wins
the division. They don't even have to play on Sunday.
So now, when you're betting and handicapping and playing in advance,
you're betting a game that maybe the Steelers are gonna
pool people and not play starters if they don't have to.
We don't know that until after the game on Saturday
and what the Steelers decide to do Sunday morning. So
that's another wrinkle. Do you want to guess and say, hey, yeah,
Baltimore's gonna win on Saturday, and this game's gonna mean something.
I guarantee you if Baltimore loses on Saturday, you're gonna
see the line on Pittsburgh Cleveland crash absolutely, because it
means nothing for the Steelers because they can't improve themselves.
They're gonna be the worst division winner. They'll have the
four seed no matter what happens. So that adds other intangibles.
And as VR said, when you're talking the final few weeks,
there's gonna be a boatload of teams that it's a
must win that is always factored into the line. You're
always gonna pay a premium for those teams, and oftentimes
the value is actually on the other teams. Look last week, Buffalo,
they're in must win mode. The rest of the way.
They barely got by Cleveland, Dog covered Houston. They're fighting
for position with the playoffs they're in, But are they
gonna be the five to six or seven seed. They
barely got by the lowly Raiders. So don't assume just
because the team needs to win that they're gonna blow
somebody out. There's a lot of value on the other side.
So those are the things you gotta be careful about.
One other tip I'll give you if you have two
teams that are out of it, have nothing to play for.
If I'm playing the total, there's only one way I'm
playing the total. It's either an over in that game
or nothing. And the reason for that is because if
teams don't care and aren't gonna be motivated, you think, well,
they're not gonna do anything. No everybody can score. It
takes more effort to play defense than it does to
play offense. Oftentimes, in these last couple weeks of the season,
with two teams that are out of it, it ends
up being like a flag football game like we see
in All Star games. Nobody wants to get hurt. They're
not going full bore and we'll go up and down
the field. So just remember that rule late in the season,
unless weather it becomes a factor with wind or something,
two teams that are eliminated, it's over or past the game.
Speaker 2: Great information for both Yanni the Greek and Marco Klaus.
So we're gonna give you guys our best bets for
this weekend, and obviously those are ones that we have
the most of the information as well as some significant
line value VR. I'm gonna let you go first kind
of break it down. This was one I did yesterday
with k IV and Crack already bet this total. Yeah,
he gave it out live on the show, and I'm
happy to know that you're on it as well.
Speaker 4: Yeah, Philly Buffalo under anything, forty four are better your gold.
We went under forty five. Bottom line is this, you
have two opposite teams, meaning the strength of these teams
is opposite. Both power rated, you know, top five obviously
Buffalo number one power rated team when it comes to
the AFC. The difference is the offense and the defense
because strength of schedule is very comparable. Philly had a
tougher strength to schedule, but not all that much tougher.
Speaker 5: But here's the difference maker.
Speaker 4: Buffalo is a top three offense, Philly's a top three defense.
Philly's barely a top fifteen offense. Buffalo's barely a top
twenty defense. So Buffalo's the A side when it comes
to defense to offense, Philly's the A sign when it
comes to defense. Where we're getting value on this total
is the recency bias of both these teams. You have
a Buffalo team that's coming in having scored what twenty
six or more in three of their last four. In fact,
in five of their last six, they've been putting up
a lot of points, three straight overs with only one
of those totals below forty nine, So they've had high
totals of late, and they've flown over those totals. Philadelphia
coming off a high scoring game where they put up
twenty nine points, they put up thirty one the week
before that. But when in doubts, zoom out, and when
we zoom out a little bit in Philadelphia, what do
we see a bunch of low scoring games where that
defense really showed up and the offense had a little
bit of problems. Philly lost those three straight games in
between there where they lost the Dallas, they lost to Chicago,
they lost to the Chargers, all very close, more or
less one score games because their defense kept it in there.
That's gonna be the differentiator that makes this total lower
scoring than that the narrative of two higher scoring teams
of late. That Philly defense is gonna give Buffalo problems
even in Buffalo, and I think you're gonna get a
lot slower paced game where they're not having that average
number of plays that they're usually accustomed to. I think
that Philadelphia defense is going to cause a lot of
three and ounce. Look for the team with the last
possession more or less to get the w low scoring
forty four better go under.
Speaker 5: That's my best bet for NFL this week.
Speaker 2: I'll give you guys a little hint that's also gonna
be in Marco's Deli video. I'm very excited to hear
his breakdown and why there may be a trap scenario
in that game.
Speaker 1: So make sure you guys.
Speaker 2: Check that out on Friday afternoon when it drops here
on the wager Talk YouTube channel.
Speaker 1: Marco, since your dress for the.
Speaker 2: Occasion, I'm gonna let you give out our Christmas special
here on wager Talk.
Speaker 3: Oh Merry Christmas from wager Talk and what we are
doing this week, whether you've been naughty or nice, You're
gonna get a qpon code where you can save twenty
five percent on anything at wager Talk. Load up your
shopping cart. It could be a daily package, a weekly package,
a monthly package, even a yearly package, and we're gonna
give you twenty five percent off. Just use coupon code
x mus twenty five. Type that in at checkout and
we will take twenty five percent off your entire order.
You can use it as many times as you want,
on as many package as you want. And like I said,
it doesn't matter if you've been naughty or nice. You
could have been naughty like Kelly or nice like ace
either way twenty five percent off this week at wager
Talk and Kelly for my best bet this week, We're
gonna go with a total as well, and I'm gonna
take a look at the Carolina Seattle game. Now, we've
got a total of forty two and a half in
this game, and anyone that watched that Thursday night game
last week between the Rams and Seattle, the last thing
they're gonna want to do is bet an under in
this game with that total that low. Seattle won thirty
eight to thirty seven in a barn burner. Well got
to point out, Carolina, isn't the La Rams gonna go
up and down the field like they did Thursday night?
The Rams did. Carolina has scored twenty three or less
in seven of their last nine games, and now they're
gonna be facing one of the NFL's top defenses. Carolina,
on the flip side, has allowed twenty or less in
five of their last seven games. Both teams are coming
off big divisional games last week and have a big
game on deck next week as well. I look for
Seattle to get back to their power ground game. They
have rushed for one hundred and fourteen or more yards
in six of their last seven games. Seattle will chew
up clock by running the football. Carolina, on the flip side,
can run the football as well and shorten the game
even more. I look at this game and I see
thirty seven or less points in this one. We're gonna
go ahead take the under. And I'll tell you go
ahead and probably way on this one because the public
is not going to bet the under on this one.
They'll probably tick it up a little bit for you.
But I like Carolina. Seattle under forty two and a
half is my best bet for this week.
Speaker 2: Oh boy, I also like a play in that game,
but I did not get to the window with them
just yet.
Speaker 1: I will make sure to tweet that out for all
of you guys.
Speaker 2: But this is a game that I already did bet
plus five and a half. We all know that's my
favorite line to bet in the NFL. The Dogs seem
to be barking more at that number than any other one.
Four and a half too. They bark a lot at
four and a half, but five and a half down
to five. Now Tampa Bay on the road at Miami.
Let's talk about that Tampa Bay team and well, they
haven't covered seven straight games, and now I'm betting against them,
but I did bet against them last week, and I
told you guys that the Panthers are going to win,
and they got it done. It for us at home,
and take a page out of Marco Claus's book. They
are the Bucks, that is, are in a Panthers sandwich.
Not sure how much this game means right here for
the Buccaneers. And I know to attack of Iloa, he's
gone quinn Ewers.
Speaker 3: Yeah, he leaves.
Speaker 1: Less than to be desired.
Speaker 2: But the Bucks, who have lost three straight to all
division opponents, even though they held a second half lead
in each, they just can't get it done. Baker Mayfield,
the guy that I was screaming three months ago was
the MVP, is having a hell of a time. He
threw another interception for the third straight game, and of
course that one last week sealed the deal against the Panthers.
But man, it was just rough and it has been rough,
and I don't see this Buccaneers team limping into the
playoffs anymore. Marco mentioned games that matter, games that don't matter.
Of course, these guys still want to play, but they've
got the Panthers circled at home next week the division
the Bucks scored less than twenty points or if you
were in their last five games. I'm telling you right now,
this is a Miami team that's struggling to score and
looks awful. Guess what this is the place to score
against this damage Buccaneers defense. Just take a peek at
that injury list early on in the week. Give me
the Dolphins plus five here to keep it close at
home in Miami.
Speaker 1: Again, I'm more all nervous about quinn yours, but it
is what it is.
Speaker 2: We will see possibly him play a little bit better
in his second game, especially after getting crossed by the
Bengals last week. Oof woof Marco Janni. I hope you
guys have a very merry Christmas, and I hope all
of you guys watching at home do as well.
Speaker 1: Enjoy the time with your families.
Speaker 2: But if you guys get a chance, make sure you
head over to the Wager Talking YouTube channel. Check out
our college football bowl games that we like up until.
Speaker 1: New Year's and of course the shortened edition of the
Mega Show.
Speaker 3: Oh