Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to the Dynasty Do Podcast. I'm your host,
Corey Evans. This Speaks show is titled twenty twenty five
Bust Candidates. Bust is a relative term in fantasy football.
It could mean not meeting expectations on ADP, a bust
in comparison to the previous season when it comes to
baseline of expect production. Therefore a bit subjective. What it
does not mean is bad player or immediate cell. It's
all independent to market value in your dynasty league or leagues.
Speaker 2: These could be.
Speaker 1: Buys in a sense if people are down on them
compared to their price tag. That being said, I am
labeling them as bust candidates because I do not think,
based on the current price to acquire or draft that
they will live up or overachieve at that valuation. The
opposite twenty twenty five Breakout Candidates will be this week's
bonus episode over on Patreon, which you can also get
all of my post draft rookie rankings back position in
tiered form. Gain access to all of those member benefits
on patreon dot com or download the mobile app. You'll
find me as the Dynasty Dude or Corey Evans Direct
links in my social media bios over on Dynasty, dupod
via most platforms. First bust candidate A bit controversial. It's
Bucky Irving again, not a bad player, a terrific running
back who had a sensation Rokie season. It's all about
what the cost is and if the expectations are a
bit out of control, which I feel like we're approaching
that territory with Bucky. He's twenty three this August, a
two oh seven eleven twenty two to eight rushing effort,
five point four yards per rush, forty seven receptions, three
ninety two no scores, fifty two targets. As a fourth
rounder out of Oregon last season, he exceeded expectations and
is now arguably in RB one top eight to twelve
in Dynasty. There are those that have BUCkies a top
five running back in their rankings. For me, it's a
bit far fetched and I will get to why. He
was the PPR RB thirteen last season, so in a
twelve team league, a high end RB two. Meanwhile, Rashad
White ranked as the PPR RB twenty two barely in
RB two with one hundred and forty four rushes and
fifty one receptions compared to again BUCkies two hundred and
seven rushes and forty seven receptions, so Bucky had farmer
rushing volume and a few less catches than Rashad White. Essentially,
Rashad White was the starter entering twenty twenty four, and
then Bucky unseated Rashad You served him on Tampa Bay's
depth chart in both usage and visible on field talent.
There's some concern with Bucky or even Rashad White, that
the roles could change without OC Liam Cohen, now the
head coach in Jacksonville. Instead, we have new OC Josh Grizzard,
who said that he quote won't try to reinvent the
wheel end quote, as the Buccaneers plan to use a
similar scheme to Cohen's, which makes sense in theory, but
more often than not, ocs ten to use the same personnel,
group beings or offensive packages. It doesn't always translate, though.
One for one, It's also possible a lot of chat,
especially when head coach Todd Bowles that Sean Tucker sees
an expanded role Afterre's effective fifty three zero eight two
rushing effort in twenty twenty four six point two yards
per carry, adding nine for one O nine and a
touchdown as a receiver. So the pecking order, at least
on paper right now appears to be Bucky, Rashad Sean
Tucker Tucker Bean the distant third who could potentially leap
frog Rashad White if the per touch effectiveness keeps up
from last season.
Speaker 2: Not to mention Rashad White already.
Speaker 1: Hinting to the fact that twenty twenty five could be
his last season with the Buccaneers as a penny free
agent in twenty twenty six, the volume concern is legitimate
for Bucky sustaining the pace that he was on, a
toward pace at that as Again, a Day three pick
in twenty twenty four means that the odds are stacked
against Irving to not only be an RB one again,
but to live on that top five to twelve price
tag depending on a redraft or dynasty format. More or less,
I want Bucky Irvian's my RB two in a league,
not my RB one. I feel more safe or a
safety net, not relying on him as the anchor of
my roster. So if you are uncomfortable Bucky like I am,
in a certain way, not a lot, just a sense
of a bust or regression occurring, then you can pivot
off of him for another running back close to eightp
that's fair, or a wide receiver for more longevity for
roster construction purposes.
Speaker 2: Bust candidate number two is Terry McLaurin. He turns thirty
in September.
Speaker 1: He aged quickly, was an older talent out Ohio State
when he did enter the NFL this past season with
Jayden Daniels eighty two ten ninety six, thirteen touchdowns, thirteen
point four yards per catch, one hundred and seventeen targets
as the PPR Wide Receivers seven, this is likely peak Terry.
His ceiling has been reached or capped. His previous PPR
annual finishes since joining the league in twenty nineteen have
been wide receiver twenty nine, twenty twenty five, fourteen to
twenty eight, so the outlier is undoubtedly wide receiver seven,
with factors such as Jaden Daniels being a huge proponent
of that success. McLaurin has not been present thus far
at voluntary OTAs he enters a contract year, probably to
stepping foots in the open market in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 2: It doesn't sound like a whole out situation.
Speaker 1: Allow James Cook, for example, because Washington GM Adam Peters
has been vocal about its hopes, as in Washington's franchise,
to give Terry a new deal this offseason. So at
this time, with ot as being voluntary, not mandatory like
training camp or the preseason, this is not a panic
situation quite yet for those that roster Terry and Dynasty.
I do expect mclaurin's to remain the clear wide out
one for Washington. However, Deebo Samuel is sure to be
a major factor contributor, while Luke McCaffrey could emerge year
two fourth on rookie Jalen Lane already has plenty of
buzz Michael Gallup signed.
Speaker 2: They could all push for sizeable roles.
Speaker 1: You still have Zach Ertz, the potential breakout of Ben Sinnett,
Brian Robinson, Austin Eckler, even late round possible jem Jacory
krossky Merritt making some noise in that backfield. Basically, it's
hard to envision Terry McLaurin maintaining a thirteen touchdown pace
on one hundred and seventeen targets from last season, even
with Jaden Daniels. There's too many variables at stake here.
Terry McLaurin is a screaming cell high in dynasty to
a younger wide receiver by back five, six, seven years
for younger talent for a team seeking that immediate tandem
with jad and Daniels, banking out another top seven or
so finish, even top ten to twelve, I think is
not a lot for Terry McLaurin. Terry, like Bucky Irving,
for me, is more of a wide receiver two as
opposed to wide receiver one to build a roster in
your league's Calvin Ridley another bust candidate, thirty one years
old in December, He has aged quickly. Like Terry McLaurin,
Ridley's career has been a different arc. Terry has been
a model of consistency, whereas Calvin's had far more ups
and downs.
Speaker 2: With his suspension from betting on games. Last season, he
was a.
Speaker 1: PPR wide receiver twenty eight sixty four ten, seventeen, four touchdowns,
fifteen point nine yards per reception. His prior PPR seasonal
finishes since twenty eighteen have been wide receiver twenty two,
twenty seven, five one oh two suspended and then eighteen,
so a lot of volatility the wide receiver five finish
being the peak in his value. Instead, Ridley is more
of a rock solid wide receiver three with Spike week
potential four wide receiver one wide receiver do production at
the end of the day or into the season, We're
looking at Kelvin Milly as more of a wide receiver
two to three borderline talent. Cam Ward should be a
significant upgrade over Will Levis or Mason Rudolph from twenty
twenty four. However, crowing pains should be expected for cam
mord even as a first overall pick out of Miami,
which will directly impact the consistency of Ridley along with
other Tennessee pass catchers like Tyler Lockett, Treylon Burk's Shamir
dk l iow manor Van Jefferson Zebra Strap both makes
a team. It sounds like head coach Brian Callahan admits
or at least acknowledges, that the Titans offensive line is
a glarian issue, so the team plans to scheme around
those weaknesses. With the line calling plays, Reward can get
the ball out of his hands quickly, screens, short intermediate routes.
If true, really we have to change his game, rely
more on his yards after the catch or in provision
with the football in his hands as opposed to that
usual downfield big playability. For example, last year, Calvin Ridley
was targeted on screens a mere eight times. It's not
his necessary skill set or where he thrives the most,
but this is now an offense that has to adhere
to what it has with the offensive line. All of that,
baked together is why I'm more out than in on Ridley.
There's a lot of hype and excitement surrounding his name
in Donzee circles because of the presence of cam Ward.
This is a time to strike buy back years, same
theme as Terry McLaurin. While I don't expect really to
necessarily emerge more than what he's been, that wide receiver
five finish was in fact his likely highest point and value.
If anyone in your league thinks that that is obtainable again,
or a wide receiver one top twelve finish, this is
your chance to sell a possible I'm a bus candidate.
Quick break me back with two more bus candidates with
twenty twenty five Before we get to that if you
want a one to one roster call over on Google Meet,
hit me up. We'll get that locked in and scheduled asap.
Thirty bucks thirty minutes, fifty bucks one hour. We'll talk
about all your team's rookie draft strategy, both pre and
post draft, cutdowns, trades, player value, whatever you want within
that thirty minute, one hour window. Send me an email
to Dinasay do podgemail dot com, or send me DM
on most social media platforms. That's at dinasy do pod
quick Break. Be right back to finish up this week's show.
The next bus candidate is Tucker Kraft twenty five in November.
Let's look at as rookie and sophomore seasons. Rookie year
thirty one three fifty five two scores, eleven and a
half yards per catch, forty targets PPR tight end twenty
nine not a lot of.
Speaker 2: Involvement, but was effective.
Speaker 1: Twenty twenty four sophomore he emerged fifty seven h seven,
seven touchdowns, fourteen point one yards per catch, seventy targets
as a PPR tight end one for fantasy the tight ten. Overall,
he is a bet on efficiency over volume. The issue
is the td dependency with seven scores on fifty catches
and seventy targets with a now loaded Packers receiver room,
Jayden Reed, Matthew Golden, Romeo Dobbs, Dontavion Wicks, Savian Williams,
Christian Watson eventually mid season or the end stretch because
of that Week eighteen acl taar last season. Now earlier
in the offseason, Packers had coach Matt Leflair stated quote,
if there's an area we got to do a better
job on, I would say featuring the tight end end.
Speaker 2: Quote.
Speaker 1: That's great to hear. However, the quote came back in January.
Since then, that's well before green Baper seeded to draft
or spend a first round pick on wide receiver Matthew Golden.
So we all hope that there's more expansion in Craft's
usager workload from what we've seen, though a forty target
seventy target season, does he max out at one hundred targets?
Does that get him over the hump of being a
back end tight end one.
Speaker 2: To top five territory?
Speaker 1: For me, that's hard to rely or forecast in because
we haven't seen that level of usage and there's so
many weapons, the volume that Josh Shape will see let
alone the receiver cor Craft is an exceptional talent. The
issue again is volume and capitalizing on efficiency per targets,
let alone after the catch. If the touchdowns fall off
yet Craft sees more catches will say sixty seventy range
or yards approaching one thousand yards, that could offset or
balance it. But touchdowns are keen in fantasy for all positions,
especially receivers and tight ends, so a top five finish
isn't out of the roma possibilities, but the expectation is
already baked into Craft's cost in Dynasty, where he's reached
that threshold at this point in Dynasty leads, if you
don't have Brock Boers, Trey McBride, George Kittle, Samuelport at
tight end, I am not going to overspend in the position.
I would rather take on a veteran like Evan Ingram
or Mark Andrews and not even hope for the best,
but just barring health, no, they're going to perform, And
I'm not spending what it might take to acquire Craft
with a not get guaranteed breakout, which is why I
think that Craft could be more bust than breakout. Based
on his environment and supporting cast in Green Bay, it's
not a lock that his volume increases substantially. And last,
but not least, Tyreek Hill. He's thirty one. He went
eighty one nine fifty nine six eleven point eight yards
per catch with one hundred and twenty three targets. His
past season as the PPR wide receiver eighteen. Ty You
produced for context as the PPR Wide receiver two in
twenty twenty two and wide receiver two in twenty twenty
three at Miami. One down season is not spell the
end for Tyreek. The issue is he had two left
wrist surgeries this offseason. His right wrisk has also been
a lingering issue, which was required a protective brace in
regular season contests. Hill has not even started catching passes
yet this offseason in OTAs He's expected to be close
or at full strength by training camp around July ish
or so. There's also the ongoing saga of Tyreek not
being committed to Miami and wanting out with a trade.
Hill is under contract with the teams till twenty twenty seven.
There's quite a few red flags here which make me
believe that prior to the start of this season could
very well present the final time to cash out on
Tyreek Kill at anything close to an elite price tag.
His run of top tier production could be behind him
after that dominant stretch of twenty twenty twenty twenty one
KC and then twenty twenty two to twenty twenty three
at Miami. Even so, perhaps most discouraging your concerning, which
is not bringing brought up all that often, is some
of Tyreek's underline speed metrics like separation yards per route,
run talks per out RuMIS, do indicate a receiver's ability
to get open and press manners zone coverage.
Speaker 2: They plummeted in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 1: That's often the first indication of a wide receivers a
client in the NFL. Tyreek is now post thirty if
the speed wears off, which he's still one of the
fastest in the game, but even a slight decrease or
marginal dip in that area could be a negative impact
for a smaller stature wide out. Lastly, there's also been
Tyreek saying he intends to retire soon.
Speaker 2: There's so many ifs what ifs with.
Speaker 1: Tyreek Hill that I simply don't want to deal with
the possible negative consequences or being left with the sunk cost.
There's plenty of market value for contenders in dinaty leagues
that will be interested in Tyreek Kill.
Speaker 2: So you have now June July August to sell.
Speaker 1: If you're in the same belief as me that Tyreek
carries more bust than breakout candidate status at this stage
of his NFL tenure, that.
Speaker 2: Will do it.
Speaker 1: We all enjoyed this Weeaks show of my twenty twenty
five bus candidates as a recap.
Speaker 2: I'm not saying they're bad players.
Speaker 1: I'm saying given the price the context of their situation,
there's more downside than upside when you have to meet
the required cost. Those five names were Bucky Irving, Terry McLaurin,
Calvin Ridley, Tucker Craft, and Tyreek Kill.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening.
Speaker 1: Be sure to check out my five breakout candidates on
this week's Patrion episode for those that support my work
on that platform. Until next time, this is the dynast
you're checking out. Hope you all have a great rest
a week and I will talk to you soon.
Speaker 2: See you