WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.080 --> 00:00:01.760 A lot of my work and a lot of my writing, 2 00:00:01.840 --> 00:00:05.120 more than I ever would have anticipated, has focused on 3 00:00:05.240 --> 00:00:13.160 medical medical. The part federally funded, part California funded, the 4 00:00:13.199 --> 00:00:21.199 California version of the federal Medicaid program, which was in 5 00:00:21.239 --> 00:00:24.879 its original conception health insurance for certain kind of classes, 6 00:00:24.960 --> 00:00:30.359 categories of persons, pregnant women, people with certain kinds of disabilities, etc. 7 00:00:30.640 --> 00:00:35.119 But which, as a result of Obamacare, really morphed into 8 00:00:35.439 --> 00:00:41.240 something very different. It morphed into health insurance for lower 9 00:00:41.240 --> 00:00:44.119 income people, health insurance just for people under a certain 10 00:00:44.159 --> 00:00:47.759 income threshold. I think the income threshold it's something like 11 00:00:47.920 --> 00:00:49.880 if you're at or under one hundred and thirty eight 12 00:00:49.920 --> 00:00:52.880 percent of the federal poverty line. It's now at a 13 00:00:52.960 --> 00:00:55.920 point where it's something like half a Fresno county is 14 00:00:55.960 --> 00:01:02.200 covered by some version of medical, and huge percentage of 15 00:01:02.200 --> 00:01:06.799 people in rural counties are covered by medical. So it's 16 00:01:06.840 --> 00:01:10.719 now this enormous pool of people. And the amount of money, 17 00:01:10.760 --> 00:01:17.280 the amount of reimbursement that doctors get for providing a 18 00:01:17.480 --> 00:01:21.159 service to a medical patient, the money that they get 19 00:01:21.159 --> 00:01:23.840 from medical for providing a service to a medical patient 20 00:01:24.400 --> 00:01:29.799 is often inadequate. There just isn't enough money. And this 21 00:01:29.840 --> 00:01:31.879 is in spite of the fact that the Medicaid program, 22 00:01:31.959 --> 00:01:34.760 the federal Medicaid program is growing, growing, growing, to such 23 00:01:34.799 --> 00:01:36.560 a degree that it's going to be a one trillion 24 00:01:36.599 --> 00:01:40.799 dollar a year program. As far as how much it costs, 25 00:01:40.879 --> 00:01:45.879 just the massive overexpansion of Medicaid to able bodied adults, 26 00:01:46.040 --> 00:01:54.760 even able bodied adults without dependence has been exorbitant, and 27 00:01:54.799 --> 00:01:57.760 that has led to exorbitant costs, and it leads to 28 00:01:57.799 --> 00:02:00.439 this really sort of unbalanced system where some of the 29 00:02:00.480 --> 00:02:03.799 original kinds of groups that the program was supposed to 30 00:02:03.879 --> 00:02:07.680 help cover, like, for example, pregnant women aren't getting very 31 00:02:07.680 --> 00:02:13.120 good care and aren't getting very good reimbursement. The fewer 32 00:02:13.120 --> 00:02:19.000 and fewer obgyns want to take care of medical patients 33 00:02:19.879 --> 00:02:25.919 for their obgyn care because you lose money, and this 34 00:02:25.960 --> 00:02:28.960 has led to big time problem unless you get like 35 00:02:29.039 --> 00:02:31.759 special state subsidies for their care, which are very hard 36 00:02:31.759 --> 00:02:35.759 to get. So basically it's a it's a whole mess. 37 00:02:36.240 --> 00:02:46.360 It's a whole mess. Gavin Newsome, however, needed to utilize 38 00:02:46.400 --> 00:02:51.199 medical in order to sort of kind of rationalize one 39 00:02:51.280 --> 00:02:59.439 of the most obvious acts of hypocrisy from his time 40 00:02:59.439 --> 00:03:03.599 as Californi governor, his abandonment of single payer healthcare, of 41 00:03:03.680 --> 00:03:07.360 universal single payer California healthcare. So let's go back to 42 00:03:07.400 --> 00:03:11.159 twenty eighteen. Gavin Newsom is running for governor. Gavin Newsom 43 00:03:11.599 --> 00:03:17.240 talks about his desire to have universal California healthcare and 44 00:03:17.319 --> 00:03:19.759 the idea is a single payer system. So, by the way, 45 00:03:20.240 --> 00:03:22.759 I think single payer healthcare is one of those political 46 00:03:22.800 --> 00:03:25.000 terms or terms that people here all the time and 47 00:03:25.039 --> 00:03:27.520 probably don't really know what it means. Right now, we 48 00:03:27.599 --> 00:03:30.199 have a system where we have multiple payers. A payer 49 00:03:30.719 --> 00:03:35.360 just means either an insurance company or a government manage 50 00:03:35.599 --> 00:03:41.879 or a government run insurance plan, an insurance company providing 51 00:03:41.919 --> 00:03:45.280 health insurance, or a government run health insurance plan. So 52 00:03:45.439 --> 00:03:50.039 right now in the healthcare market, there are multiple payers. 53 00:03:51.879 --> 00:03:55.800 I have Blue Cross, I have a blue Cross or 54 00:03:55.879 --> 00:03:58.280 Blue Shield, and some people have Kaiser, and some people 55 00:03:58.280 --> 00:04:00.360 of this, and some people of that. Some people have 56 00:04:00.400 --> 00:04:01.759 met and then some people have this and blah blah 57 00:04:01.759 --> 00:04:04.560 blah blah blah blah blah, and then some people are 58 00:04:04.599 --> 00:04:08.000 on medical older folks are on many older folks are 59 00:04:08.000 --> 00:04:12.400 on Medicare, et cetera, et cetera. All right, so we 60 00:04:12.479 --> 00:04:18.639 have a system with multiple payers. A single payer healthcare system, 61 00:04:18.959 --> 00:04:21.399 as you see in Canada, as you see in the 62 00:04:21.480 --> 00:04:25.360 United Kingdom, means no, we get rid of all of 63 00:04:25.399 --> 00:04:28.959 the payers and we only have one payer, one person 64 00:04:29.079 --> 00:04:33.120 providing the coverage, providing the funding that goes to the doctors, 65 00:04:33.600 --> 00:04:37.319 the government. That's what a single payer healthcare system is. 66 00:04:37.680 --> 00:04:41.920 Gavin Newsom was promoting a single payer healthcare system for California. 67 00:04:42.399 --> 00:04:44.360 That's what he was pushing in twenty eighteen when he 68 00:04:44.439 --> 00:04:49.160 ran for governor. And in fact, he has some quotes, 69 00:04:49.279 --> 00:04:52.639 some really embarrassing quotes from that time from twenty eighteen 70 00:04:52.680 --> 00:04:55.560 when he said, all these liberals they run for office 71 00:04:55.600 --> 00:04:58.160 pledging that they're going to push for single payer healthcare, 72 00:04:58.199 --> 00:05:00.639 and then when the rubber meets the road, oh, they 73 00:05:00.800 --> 00:05:02.920 chicken out and they kick the can down the road 74 00:05:02.959 --> 00:05:05.240 and it's never the right time, and I'm not gonna 75 00:05:05.240 --> 00:05:09.000 be like that. Well, and then he proceeded to do 76 00:05:09.240 --> 00:05:14.120 exactly precisely that. He becomes governor. The insurance companies lobby 77 00:05:14.160 --> 00:05:17.319 him and they're like, hey, please don't do that, and 78 00:05:17.600 --> 00:05:20.399 he chickens out and he doesn't actually pursue single payer 79 00:05:20.439 --> 00:05:25.519 health care. So what does he do to kind of 80 00:05:26.319 --> 00:05:34.519 rationalize this obvious betrayal of his campaign promise. Well, what 81 00:05:34.600 --> 00:05:40.319 he does is he utilizes medical. He uses medical in 82 00:05:40.480 --> 00:05:45.439 order to achieve the goal of universal coverage. He wants 83 00:05:45.600 --> 00:05:52.399 everybody in California to have health insurance. Now, the quality 84 00:05:52.399 --> 00:05:57.079 of that health insurance, the financial sustainability of that health insurance, 85 00:05:57.120 --> 00:06:00.399 all of those factors be damned. Gavin Newsom is going 86 00:06:00.439 --> 00:06:04.600 to accomplish his goal of getting everybody covered. That's the 87 00:06:04.639 --> 00:06:08.079 focus for him. So what does he do. He expands 88 00:06:08.079 --> 00:06:12.319 and expands and expands and expands medical eligibility, crowning it 89 00:06:12.360 --> 00:06:17.879 off a couple of years ago by opening medical eligibility 90 00:06:17.920 --> 00:06:23.680 to illegal aliens, people who are in the country unlawfully, 91 00:06:24.040 --> 00:06:27.560 people who are in the state of California unlawfully. They 92 00:06:27.600 --> 00:06:36.079 are eligible to receive medical coverage. Well, here's the problem. 93 00:06:36.399 --> 00:06:43.199 Even before illegal aliens were eligible for medical medical was 94 00:06:43.240 --> 00:06:48.560 in horrific shape. Again, in spite of all the money, 95 00:06:48.639 --> 00:06:53.279 there are too many people getting too many services, and 96 00:06:53.360 --> 00:06:56.160 the pool of money to help pay the doctors for 97 00:06:56.160 --> 00:07:00.639 providing those services is too small. The reimbursement that go 98 00:07:00.720 --> 00:07:06.120 to doctors are too low. Doctors lose money. In some 99 00:07:06.199 --> 00:07:10.560 cases they barely cover their costs through medical reimbursements. Why 100 00:07:10.560 --> 00:07:13.120 did Madeic Community Hospital go out of business? There were 101 00:07:13.120 --> 00:07:16.040 a lot of reasons why. This wasn't the only reason, 102 00:07:16.279 --> 00:07:18.680 but one of the big reasons is sixty percent of 103 00:07:18.720 --> 00:07:21.519 their patient population was medical and they weren't making money 104 00:07:21.519 --> 00:07:35.680 off of those patients sixty percent. And even now Madeira 105 00:07:35.720 --> 00:07:39.160 Community Hospital's reopening but guess what they're reopening with no 106 00:07:39.319 --> 00:07:46.120 maternity ward. Why because obgyn services is one of those 107 00:07:46.160 --> 00:07:52.240 areas where medical is particularly not profitable for doctors taking 108 00:07:52.279 --> 00:07:55.480 medical patients, getting a medical reimbursement for a service to 109 00:07:55.480 --> 00:07:59.279 a patient, for a delivering a baby to a medical 110 00:07:59.480 --> 00:08:06.040 patient pregnant woman who's covered by medical, you lose money. 111 00:08:06.879 --> 00:08:14.839 So so that was a problem before illegal aliens. We're 112 00:08:14.879 --> 00:08:19.160 eligible for medical and here you're gonna add So here's 113 00:08:19.240 --> 00:08:21.360 we have only a certain pool of money to pay 114 00:08:21.399 --> 00:08:25.000 for reimbursements for medical patients. And Gavin Newsom's gonna add 115 00:08:25.000 --> 00:08:27.720 every illegal alien in California to the pool of people 116 00:08:27.759 --> 00:08:33.519 eligible for medical without proportionally expanding the pool of money 117 00:08:34.159 --> 00:08:38.799 to pay for services for them. That's not gonna work. 118 00:08:39.279 --> 00:08:44.159 The math doesn't make sense. And lo and behold The 119 00:08:44.279 --> 00:08:49.000 cost to the state for providing medical coverage for illegal 120 00:08:49.000 --> 00:08:54.960 aliens has been billions of dollars, more than Gavin Newsom anticipated, 121 00:08:55.000 --> 00:09:01.240 than California anticipated, and it's so much more that. According 122 00:09:01.240 --> 00:09:03.440 to this story from the Los Angeles Times written by 123 00:09:03.519 --> 00:09:09.000 Tarren Luna, facing a budget deficit, Governor Gavin Newsom is 124 00:09:09.039 --> 00:09:12.639 proposing changes to California's program to provide free healthcare coverage 125 00:09:12.639 --> 00:09:15.879 to low income undocumented immigrants. The cost of coverage for 126 00:09:15.879 --> 00:09:19.120 immigrants has exceeded state estimates by billions of dollars. Gavin 127 00:09:19.159 --> 00:09:23.440 Newsom is maybe wanting to roll this back. Governor Gavin 128 00:09:23.480 --> 00:09:26.600 Newsom's twenty twenty five twenty twenty six revised budget proposal 129 00:09:26.679 --> 00:09:31.360 renegs on his signature policy to provide free healthcare coverage 130 00:09:31.399 --> 00:09:35.799 to all low income undocumented immigrants as costs exceed expectations 131 00:09:36.039 --> 00:09:40.679 and the state anticipates challenging economic times ahead, Newsom's office 132 00:09:40.720 --> 00:09:43.639 said the Governor's spending plan, which will be released late 133 00:09:43.679 --> 00:09:49.080 Wednesday morning, you know that this article was I think 134 00:09:49.080 --> 00:09:53.360 written very very early this morning, which will be calls 135 00:09:53.360 --> 00:09:56.799 for requiring all undocumented adults to pay one hundred dollars 136 00:09:56.879 --> 00:10:00.639 monthly premiums. To receive medical coverage and for blocker all 137 00:10:00.720 --> 00:10:04.000 new adult applications to the program as of January first. 138 00:10:05.559 --> 00:10:10.840 So we're gonna make We're gonna make adults adult illegal immigrants. 139 00:10:10.799 --> 00:10:13.960 They got to pay one hundred dollars premiums, and we're not 140 00:10:14.000 --> 00:10:20.519 gonna admit any new applicants after January first. No adult 141 00:10:21.879 --> 00:10:25.080 applications to the program as of January first. The costs 142 00:10:25.159 --> 00:10:27.519 share will reduce the financial burden on the state and 143 00:10:27.600 --> 00:10:29.759 could lower the total number of people enrolled in the 144 00:10:29.759 --> 00:10:32.799 healthcare program if some immigrants cannot afford the new premiums. 145 00:10:33.159 --> 00:10:36.159 Freezing enrollment may prevent the price tag of the program 146 00:10:36.200 --> 00:10:39.120 from continuing to balloon after more people signed up for 147 00:10:39.159 --> 00:10:41.720 coverage than the state anticipated. Why would the state of 148 00:10:41.799 --> 00:10:44.519 anticipated that a ton of people weren't gonna sign up. 149 00:10:45.799 --> 00:10:50.120 I guess I'm baffled by why they're baffled. You're offering 150 00:10:50.240 --> 00:10:53.840 free health insurance to people who aren't supposed to be 151 00:10:53.879 --> 00:10:56.399 in the country legally. You're telling hey, come on it. 152 00:10:56.639 --> 00:11:03.159 I remember seeing the billboards, billboards in Spanish proclaiming that 153 00:11:03.399 --> 00:11:10.000 you know coverage regardless of your immigration status. The governor's 154 00:11:10.080 --> 00:11:12.399 office said the changes will save a combined five point 155 00:11:12.440 --> 00:11:15.279 four billion dollars through twenty twenty eight twenty twenty nine, 156 00:11:15.320 --> 00:11:17.519 but did not detail the cost savings in the upcoming 157 00:11:17.559 --> 00:11:21.399 fiscal year that begins July first. Newsom has expected Wednesday 158 00:11:21.440 --> 00:11:24.039 to project a deficit for California in the fiscal year ahead, 159 00:11:24.279 --> 00:11:27.399 which includes higher than expected medical costs and more significant 160 00:11:27.399 --> 00:11:29.519 shortfall estimates in the following years. 161 00:11:32.440 --> 00:11:40.039 This is such another massive failure for Gavin Newsom, and 162 00:11:40.399 --> 00:11:48.440 it shows just the the approach that the Democrats have 163 00:11:48.440 --> 00:11:49.720 taken healthcare. 164 00:11:50.879 --> 00:11:55.879 Has just not really been a sustainable one. It's almost 165 00:11:55.919 --> 00:12:00.639 sort of that there's this the half rear rendered approach 166 00:12:01.600 --> 00:12:04.919 as opposed to the whole rear rendered approach. If you will, 167 00:12:08.600 --> 00:12:11.519 if you're going, at the very least you know, say 168 00:12:11.519 --> 00:12:14.279 what you will about single payer healthcare systems. And I'm 169 00:12:14.440 --> 00:12:16.279 more than happy to say what I will about single 170 00:12:16.320 --> 00:12:18.240 payer healthcare systems. I think there are a lot of 171 00:12:18.320 --> 00:12:20.799 real serious risks with single payer healthcare systems, having the 172 00:12:20.840 --> 00:12:25.960 government completely control it, the kinds of perverse incentives that exist, 173 00:12:26.120 --> 00:12:29.360 and there's all kinds of problems with single payer healthcare systems. 174 00:12:29.600 --> 00:12:31.320 We don't need to detail them all here. 175 00:12:31.279 --> 00:12:31.440 But. 176 00:12:33.399 --> 00:12:38.919 At least from a financial perspective, there's a certain kind 177 00:12:39.279 --> 00:12:43.879 of sense to it. You eliminate all the extraneous costs 178 00:12:43.919 --> 00:12:45.559 that are associated with lots and lots and lots of 179 00:12:45.600 --> 00:12:51.240 other individual payers. You have one single payer. Everyone is 180 00:12:51.360 --> 00:12:55.799 paying a significant tax burden hiring come people or paying 181 00:12:55.799 --> 00:12:58.720 a significant tax burden in order to pay for the 182 00:12:58.759 --> 00:13:03.639 costs for everybody. Rather than everyone paying premiums, people are 183 00:13:03.679 --> 00:13:06.960 paying that money in taxes. You have to accompany a 184 00:13:06.960 --> 00:13:10.080 single payer system with a tax increase that there's a 185 00:13:10.080 --> 00:13:18.799 certain kind of mathematical sense to it. Everyone's going to 186 00:13:18.840 --> 00:13:21.600 pay more in taxes, but everyone's going to be covered. 187 00:13:22.080 --> 00:13:25.960 That's the system we have. Okay, it makes mathematical sense 188 00:13:26.519 --> 00:13:30.120 now on the ground realities of life within the National 189 00:13:30.159 --> 00:13:34.279 Health Service in the UK or the Canadian model not 190 00:13:34.320 --> 00:13:36.840 all sunshine and roses. But at the very least there's 191 00:13:36.879 --> 00:13:44.039 a certain math that adds up. Newsom has basically because 192 00:13:44.240 --> 00:13:47.440 this is about Newsome and advancing the greater glory of 193 00:13:47.480 --> 00:13:52.480 Gavin and Newsom trying to do this sort of cya 194 00:13:53.720 --> 00:13:59.159 for his campaign promise of universal health care. He's gone 195 00:13:59.200 --> 00:14:02.360 about this in a way that just makes no math sense, 196 00:14:02.440 --> 00:14:05.840 because what else is he supposed to do increase taxes 197 00:14:05.879 --> 00:14:09.600 on Californians, were already the most heavily taxed state in 198 00:14:09.639 --> 00:14:14.039 the Union. Newsom knows he can't increase taxes further to 199 00:14:14.120 --> 00:14:17.759 pay for medical, but he has to fulfill these campaign 200 00:14:17.799 --> 00:14:21.159 promises that he made of health care for everybody, health 201 00:14:21.200 --> 00:14:28.080 care for all, universal health care. So he pushes this 202 00:14:28.159 --> 00:14:31.799 policy and everyone, certainly everyone from the Republican side of 203 00:14:31.799 --> 00:14:35.879 the aisles like medical is already in disastrous shape, and 204 00:14:35.919 --> 00:14:39.039 you're because it's too many, it's too small a pool 205 00:14:39.080 --> 00:14:42.080 of money covering health care for too many people, and 206 00:14:42.120 --> 00:14:44.240 now you're going to add illegal aliens to the mix, 207 00:14:44.399 --> 00:14:47.279 Like this is gonna be a disaster, and lo and behold, 208 00:14:47.360 --> 00:14:53.240 that's exactly what it is. Because again, the point of 209 00:14:53.279 --> 00:14:56.519 this was not actually to do something that made any sense. 210 00:14:56.600 --> 00:14:59.759 The point of it was to advance Gavin Newsom's greater glory. 211 00:15:00.080 --> 00:15:06.759 When we return, why I kind of suspect that Gavin 212 00:15:06.799 --> 00:15:11.840 Newsom's presidential aspirations are cooked. That's next on the John 213 00:15:11.879 --> 00:15:19.279 Girardi Show, before I really dig into Newsom's presidential aspirations, 214 00:15:19.480 --> 00:15:23.840 the bigger picture, so that the highlight from the revision 215 00:15:24.080 --> 00:15:29.879 of the state budget is the need to step back 216 00:15:30.919 --> 00:15:35.879 medical eligibility for illegal aliens. But let's talk more broadly 217 00:15:35.919 --> 00:15:40.639 about Gavin Newsom and his laying out to the state 218 00:15:41.080 --> 00:15:48.600 of just how bad California's budget problems are. Senator Brian 219 00:15:48.679 --> 00:15:56.679 Dolly's Republican state senator in California. He tweets out the 220 00:15:56.720 --> 00:15:59.440 state is going to be facing deficits of twenty to 221 00:15:59.480 --> 00:16:07.000 thirty billion dollars per year. This is from Brian Dolly 222 00:16:07.200 --> 00:16:12.039 Newsom is so Newsom's reporting like, we are going to 223 00:16:12.080 --> 00:16:18.120 face enormous, enormous deficits and he's going to try to 224 00:16:18.240 --> 00:16:23.879 blame Trump. He's going to try to blame uh Trump's tariff. Oh, 225 00:16:23.919 --> 00:16:25.919 there's so much revenue we're losing out on. This is 226 00:16:25.919 --> 00:16:31.039 going to be wildly overstated, but we just need to 227 00:16:31.159 --> 00:16:36.519 acknowledge this is Newsom's last year. This is not year 228 00:16:36.519 --> 00:16:42.480 one of Newsom. It's his eighth year. Okay. We are 229 00:16:42.519 --> 00:16:46.720 going to have an election for a new governor in well, 230 00:16:46.759 --> 00:16:48.879 I guess it's his seventh year. Okay, We're going to 231 00:16:48.960 --> 00:16:51.320 have the governor election is going to take place in 232 00:16:51.360 --> 00:16:58.360 November of twenty twenty six. It's on him now. At 233 00:16:58.360 --> 00:17:06.799 this point, if California was doing all right, we wouldn't 234 00:17:06.839 --> 00:17:10.720 be facing deficits at this If California had been managed 235 00:17:11.079 --> 00:17:15.480 well for the prior seven years in spite of COVID, 236 00:17:16.279 --> 00:17:18.839 we would be doing really well right now. We could 237 00:17:18.920 --> 00:17:22.680 be okay right now, we might not be engaged in 238 00:17:22.759 --> 00:17:28.599 deficit spending right now. Why are we? It's because of him. 239 00:17:29.799 --> 00:17:32.440 He's been the captain of this ship for over six years. 240 00:17:34.839 --> 00:17:38.880 He at a certain point he cannot deflect the blame, 241 00:17:38.880 --> 00:17:40.720 and he's going to try to deflect the blame on Oh, 242 00:17:40.759 --> 00:17:43.160 it's Donald Trump's tariffs, so have cost us all these 243 00:17:43.160 --> 00:17:48.720 billions of dollars. Florida's got budget surpluses and their budgetary 244 00:17:48.799 --> 00:17:52.119 situation is doing just fine. Are tariff's impacting them more 245 00:17:52.200 --> 00:17:55.799 so than California? I don't think so. They got plenty 246 00:17:55.839 --> 00:18:07.920 of international shipping in Florida. So the it's on him 247 00:18:07.960 --> 00:18:11.359 at this point. It's on him at this point. The 248 00:18:11.400 --> 00:18:13.559 fact is it's the most overtaxed state in the Union. 249 00:18:13.920 --> 00:18:16.079 It's the most overtaxed state in the Union, and it's 250 00:18:16.279 --> 00:18:22.960 super reliant on this incredibly small number of super high income, 251 00:18:24.000 --> 00:18:28.400 super high net worth taxpayers who get a ton of 252 00:18:28.400 --> 00:18:33.039 money in capital gains taxes and for who get a 253 00:18:33.039 --> 00:18:35.160 lot of money in capital gains that are paid to 254 00:18:35.200 --> 00:18:39.599 California in the form of capital gains taxes, and a 255 00:18:39.640 --> 00:18:43.079 lot of that crowd left. A lot of that crowd 256 00:18:43.160 --> 00:18:45.599 left the state over the last four or five years 257 00:18:45.640 --> 00:18:48.480 over Newsom's tenure, in no small part because of how 258 00:18:48.519 --> 00:18:51.720 he managed the state, because of how he ran the 259 00:18:51.720 --> 00:18:54.240 state during COVID, because of how he has run the 260 00:18:54.279 --> 00:19:03.200 state this whole time. It's on him period end of sentence. 261 00:19:04.240 --> 00:19:10.400 We're facing enormous budget deficits, so you know he can't 262 00:19:10.559 --> 00:19:14.960 escape that. So now when we return, we're going to 263 00:19:15.000 --> 00:19:19.240 talk about his presidential ambitions and why I'm getting more 264 00:19:19.279 --> 00:19:21.319 and more confidence that JD. Vans is going to be 265 00:19:21.319 --> 00:19:24.720 our president starting on January twentieth of twenty twenty nine. 266 00:19:24.759 --> 00:19:29.039 That's next on the John Girardi Show. I am getting 267 00:19:29.079 --> 00:19:31.160 more and more convinced that JD. Vance is going to 268 00:19:31.200 --> 00:19:33.519 be the next president of the United States of America. 269 00:19:33.640 --> 00:19:43.599 Here's why. So his two chief opponents, the two most 270 00:19:43.720 --> 00:19:46.039 likely opponents from the Democrats side, are at least two 271 00:19:46.119 --> 00:19:48.680 of the most heralded opponents from the Democrats side. Maybe 272 00:19:48.759 --> 00:19:53.559 I'm overstating their chances are Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris. 273 00:19:54.039 --> 00:19:57.440 Newsom's going to run, Harris is going to run. Now, 274 00:19:57.559 --> 00:19:59.640 maybe both of them will lose the Democrat primary. I 275 00:19:59.640 --> 00:20:01.599 don't know. They've got a lot of money behind them. 276 00:20:01.839 --> 00:20:03.240 They might have a lot of donors, a lot of 277 00:20:03.240 --> 00:20:12.680 money behind them. I am looking though, at all this 278 00:20:12.920 --> 00:20:16.920 Gavin Newsom news that's coming out now that he has 279 00:20:16.960 --> 00:20:21.279 to roll back one of his signature things, his promise 280 00:20:21.440 --> 00:20:25.960 to give medical coverage to illegal aliens. But he's having 281 00:20:25.960 --> 00:20:29.839 to roll back because it was way more expensive than 282 00:20:29.880 --> 00:20:34.720 he anticipated. I think Gavin Newsom's never going to be president. 283 00:20:34.960 --> 00:20:40.480 I think his chances of being president are just cooked. 284 00:20:40.960 --> 00:20:46.960 I think the last even just the last year, between 285 00:20:46.960 --> 00:20:52.240 the fires in LA and now this. I mean, let's 286 00:20:52.319 --> 00:20:55.440 just look at Gavin Newsom's career. Look at Gavin Newsom's 287 00:20:55.640 --> 00:21:02.039 time as governor. Homelessness has become this huge problem in California. 288 00:21:02.079 --> 00:21:04.559 He hasn't really done anything to fix it. In fact, 289 00:21:04.599 --> 00:21:07.799 he spent billions of dollars on it. The problem hasn't alleviated, 290 00:21:07.839 --> 00:21:11.519 which follows a trend throughout his whole career. He was 291 00:21:11.599 --> 00:21:13.960 mayor of San Francisco for seven years, spent all his money, 292 00:21:14.039 --> 00:21:16.680 time and attention to help address homelessness in San Francisco, 293 00:21:16.680 --> 00:21:23.759 and the problem got way worse when he was mayor. Okay, wildfires, okay, 294 00:21:23.799 --> 00:21:27.000 we had the bad wildfires in twenty nineteen, twenty twenty, 295 00:21:27.279 --> 00:21:29.160 said oh, I'm going to do stuff to work on it. 296 00:21:29.200 --> 00:21:32.960 And then we had the worst fire in history this 297 00:21:33.000 --> 00:21:37.759 past January in Los Angeles, and we can't get permitting 298 00:21:38.279 --> 00:21:41.519 for rebuilding this enormous number of houses that got built down, 299 00:21:41.599 --> 00:21:47.640 that got burned down. Okay, that's also really bad. Well, 300 00:21:47.680 --> 00:21:50.079 we got our high speed rail, the high speed rail, 301 00:21:50.079 --> 00:21:53.680 which still has exactly zero inches of operable track. It 302 00:21:53.759 --> 00:21:56.680 had zero inches of operable track when he started as governor. 303 00:21:56.799 --> 00:22:00.160 It continues to have zero inches of operable track. We'll 304 00:22:00.160 --> 00:22:03.519 probably have zero inches of operable track when he leaves governor. 305 00:22:03.559 --> 00:22:05.960 Over the course of eight years, he didn't ban, he 306 00:22:06.119 --> 00:22:11.440 did not do a kind of sunk cost analysis. He 307 00:22:12.039 --> 00:22:16.039 just let it linger. He embraced this stupid Merced to 308 00:22:16.119 --> 00:22:27.799 Bakersfield plan. It's a disaster and it's indefensible. Now he's 309 00:22:27.960 --> 00:22:32.400 got budget deficit after budget deficit after budget deficit, because 310 00:22:32.519 --> 00:22:37.599 and what's the dynamic there. The dynamic is California was 311 00:22:37.720 --> 00:22:39.799 when he started as governor, and he knew this. When 312 00:22:39.799 --> 00:22:43.440 he started as governor, he knew California was super reliant 313 00:22:43.640 --> 00:22:47.279 on a very small pool of very high value into 314 00:22:47.319 --> 00:22:50.400 the individuals who pay a lot in taxes, and they 315 00:22:50.400 --> 00:22:54.279 were propping the whole state government up with their tax revenue. 316 00:22:55.160 --> 00:22:57.880 And the way he governed in no small part during 317 00:22:57.920 --> 00:23:00.920 COVID resulted in a bunch of them moving away and 318 00:23:01.000 --> 00:23:04.000 taking billions of dollars in annual revenue from their capital 319 00:23:04.000 --> 00:23:08.000 gains taxes and other tax revenue with them to Nevada 320 00:23:08.079 --> 00:23:15.079 to Arizona, to Idaho, to Florida, to Texas, and we're 321 00:23:15.119 --> 00:23:21.039 never getting them back or not anytime soon anyway. So 322 00:23:22.799 --> 00:23:24.839 and that's on him. A lot of that was on him. 323 00:23:24.880 --> 00:23:27.359 It was because of how he governed things during COVID, 324 00:23:27.680 --> 00:23:30.000 and we had the one year we had twenty twenty 325 00:23:30.000 --> 00:23:33.960 two where we thought where everyone in Sacramento seemed to 326 00:23:34.000 --> 00:23:40.359 have this false optimism that oh, everything's wonderful because we 327 00:23:40.400 --> 00:23:42.480 had a budget surplus. Why well, we had this huge 328 00:23:42.519 --> 00:23:46.000 influx of federal cash, and we seem to think that, 329 00:23:46.599 --> 00:23:51.880 you know, blue skies and sunny days were here to stay. 330 00:23:52.759 --> 00:23:56.039 And here's Gavin Newsom palain around with Jerry Dyer and 331 00:23:56.079 --> 00:23:58.759 so here, Jerry, here's you know, two hundred and fifty 332 00:23:58.799 --> 00:24:05.119 million dollars for helping with the infrastructure in downtown Fresnoe. Oh, 333 00:24:05.200 --> 00:24:06.799 thank you, mister governor. That's so sweet of you. 334 00:24:07.799 --> 00:24:07.960 Uh. 335 00:24:08.960 --> 00:24:13.119 And that money ain't coming, Jerry. I just don't know 336 00:24:13.160 --> 00:24:15.279 that that money's gonna come. I mean I don't. I 337 00:24:15.319 --> 00:24:17.519 don't be grudge Jerry Dyer for trying to get the money. 338 00:24:17.559 --> 00:24:19.240 Good for him, he's the mayor of Fresno. He wants 339 00:24:19.279 --> 00:24:23.640 to help help, you know, build up Fresno. Good for him, 340 00:24:23.960 --> 00:24:27.039 But I don't know that that money's coming. We got 341 00:24:27.079 --> 00:24:30.319 the first installment of it, and and it keeps getting 342 00:24:30.319 --> 00:24:32.559 pushed back a year, keeps getting pushed back a year. 343 00:24:33.160 --> 00:24:35.400 I don't know that it's ever coming, especially when we're 344 00:24:35.400 --> 00:24:41.960 facing these massive year over year deficits. So our fiscal 345 00:24:42.000 --> 00:24:49.680 outlook is a train wreck. And Knewsome just is like, well, 346 00:24:49.799 --> 00:24:51.759 all the teachers' unions were mad that they didn't get 347 00:24:51.839 --> 00:24:54.519 enough money for schools in the budget last year. Oh okay, well, 348 00:24:54.559 --> 00:24:57.960 I guess we're gonna do a statewide bond measure. What 349 00:24:58.079 --> 00:25:00.519 was that? That was Prop two, I think or it 350 00:25:00.559 --> 00:25:03.519 was one of the one of the propositions that we 351 00:25:03.599 --> 00:25:05.839 voted on in November. And then every local school district 352 00:25:05.880 --> 00:25:08.240 does a bond measure. Okay, we're just adding more bond debt, 353 00:25:10.240 --> 00:25:14.799 just more and more bond debt. Who cares as long 354 00:25:14.839 --> 00:25:20.440 as the teachers' unions are happy, So our fiscal outlook 355 00:25:20.880 --> 00:25:25.640 is a disaster. He's now having to roll back his signature, 356 00:25:26.799 --> 00:25:29.559 you know, one of his signature big promises of universal 357 00:25:29.559 --> 00:25:33.279 healthcare coverage, because he gave even while we were facing 358 00:25:33.319 --> 00:25:38.119 these horrible budgetary situations. He then proceeded to add illegal 359 00:25:38.160 --> 00:25:41.279 aliens as being eligible for medical which has cost the 360 00:25:41.279 --> 00:25:46.480 state billions more than we anticipated. Why didn't we anticipate 361 00:25:46.480 --> 00:25:48.240 it would cost that much? I don't know. I was 362 00:25:48.319 --> 00:25:53.039 anticipating it was going to cost a lot of money. 363 00:25:54.000 --> 00:25:58.519 So I just feel like I don't understand how Gavin 364 00:25:58.559 --> 00:26:03.559 Newsome is kin to go on a debate stage and 365 00:26:03.680 --> 00:26:07.440 say vote for me. What literally, what does he have 366 00:26:07.519 --> 00:26:10.640 to point to? He can talk all you want about all. 367 00:26:10.759 --> 00:26:14.000 California is one of the fifth leading economy in the world. 368 00:26:15.000 --> 00:26:19.200 California was one of the leading He always talks about 369 00:26:19.200 --> 00:26:24.000 that California is the sixth largest economy in the world. Like, 370 00:26:24.079 --> 00:26:27.200 if you treat California as its own country, it stacks 371 00:26:27.240 --> 00:26:29.200 up as it's the fifth or sixth leading economy in 372 00:26:29.200 --> 00:26:33.240 the world. Okay, great, good job by us. It was. 373 00:26:33.400 --> 00:26:36.039 That's always been the situation with California. That's been the 374 00:26:36.079 --> 00:26:39.079 situation with California for years and years and years. That 375 00:26:39.440 --> 00:26:41.960 it has the biggest economy because it has the largest 376 00:26:41.960 --> 00:26:44.759 population of any individual state in the United States. It 377 00:26:44.799 --> 00:26:51.119 has several major industries, it has great geography. Shipping goes 378 00:26:51.160 --> 00:26:56.640 through California. Hollywood is located in California. Yeah, of course, 379 00:26:58.200 --> 00:27:01.200 but that's not a thing News can take any credit 380 00:27:01.279 --> 00:27:10.119 for with any sense. Every single aspect of California governance 381 00:27:11.039 --> 00:27:15.480 has gotten worse. Our fiscal situation is worse. Public safety 382 00:27:16.160 --> 00:27:20.440 is not better. He's trying to sort of claw back 383 00:27:20.680 --> 00:27:24.559 after the ridiculous sorts of ballot initiatives that he himself 384 00:27:24.599 --> 00:27:31.119 helped pass. Public safety is worse, Homelessness is worse. He's 385 00:27:31.160 --> 00:27:34.119 blown billions of dollars trying to fix homelessness and it 386 00:27:34.160 --> 00:27:45.079 hasn't fixed anything. The high speed rail is a total waste. 387 00:27:45.440 --> 00:27:47.160 You just go on and on and on and on. 388 00:27:48.759 --> 00:27:52.880 And I just don't understand how Gavin Newsom's going to 389 00:27:52.920 --> 00:27:58.319 be able to stand on a debate stage and credibly 390 00:27:58.359 --> 00:28:00.240 make the case that people should vote for him him 391 00:28:00.279 --> 00:28:03.039 to be president. I don't understand how it's gonna work 392 00:28:08.359 --> 00:28:11.720 he has. I don't see what accomplishment he has to 393 00:28:11.799 --> 00:28:16.920 point to. Now when you look at the field of 394 00:28:17.039 --> 00:28:24.680 likely Democrats. Though Newsom will be a formidable person. He's 395 00:28:24.759 --> 00:28:30.119 got the Nancy Pelosi California donors. He may well have 396 00:28:30.200 --> 00:28:32.920 a lot of them behind him, and money means a lot. 397 00:28:33.000 --> 00:28:36.680 The dons. Donors really run things on the Democrats side, 398 00:28:36.680 --> 00:28:38.920 don't believe me. Look at poor old Joe Biden, who 399 00:28:38.960 --> 00:28:43.559 got tossed out unceremoniously because the donors basically told him 400 00:28:44.039 --> 00:28:47.720 you gotta go. I mean that the donors really run 401 00:28:47.759 --> 00:28:51.319