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Speaker 1: Welcome back to this so marches right around the corner

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and the Cougars are in the metal of it. It's

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time to talk some college basketball on Cougar Sports with

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Ben Crittle. Welcome back to your sports one nine ninety three. Man,

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I've been from broadcasting Romark Vanderwealth Studios.

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Speaker 2: Let's band together, build our wealth.

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Speaker 1: Let your money work for you rather than you always

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working for your money. He wants to support you. Vander Welton,

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Blaine Anderson hit him up today. It is top for

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Speaker 2: Let's get out to the hotline. Welcome in.

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Speaker 1: Ken Pomeroy representing Kenpalm dot com, the man of metrics

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regarding college basketball.

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Speaker 2: Ken, how the heck are you? Hey?

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Speaker 3: Ben's doing great, doing great. Thanks having me on.

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Speaker 1: Always a pleasure, always a blessing. Talking some ball with you.

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BYU Basketball, let's start off with this. Ken Pom favors

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b YU and nine of their last ten. If BYU

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goes nine to one in their last ten games, what

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type of seeding do you think they could get in

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the NCAA tournament.

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Speaker 3: They go to nine to one, they're looking at you know,

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probably a two. Yeah, that'd be a'd be an incredible run.

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It should be, it should be noted. And even though

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and I'm looking at it right now, I haven't favored

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in eight of their last ten.

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Speaker 1: But oh yeah, okay, so I thought it was nine

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out of their last ten. It was about a couple

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of days ago. Now it's eight o their last ten

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that they're favorite.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the Iowa State Yeah, the Iowa State game flipped

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to an L. But the point I want to make

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is that many of those wins are by small margins,

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and actually collectively, when you count for the probability, I

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have them going what six and four down the stratch,

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so you know, probably a more realistic expectation of what

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the future holds here.

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Speaker 1: So six and four is the more more realistic expectation

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in these last ten games.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean you just don't you know, you're not

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gonna win every game you're you're favored by, right, especially

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when you're only favored by you know, two, three, four

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points in some cases. So, uh so you know they'll

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be potentially favored in eight or ten, But the most

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likely record is winning six out of ten.

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Speaker 1: If they win six out of ten, what type of

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seeding do you think they get in that case?

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Speaker 3: Probably you know you're probably looking at a four. I'd

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there four.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, there's no, do you think there's a chance that

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this team ends up being a five seed NCUAA tournament.

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Is there a world in which that could happen? Because

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I'm dreading that day.

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Speaker 3: I mean it's possible, yeah, I mean it certainly, like yeah,

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they you know, I mean there aren't there aren't any

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gimmes on them on this suysule down the stretch, so

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you know, it's certainly possible. But I'm curious why you're

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why you're dreading.

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Speaker 1: That well, I just feel like the five twelves, I

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just don't feel good about it if this is the

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reason why. And you could probably pull up some of

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this data too. But b YU has gone to the

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NCUBLE Tournament more than any other team without seeing a

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final four.

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Speaker 2: The only way they get to a final four this year.

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They have great talent.

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Speaker 1: I don't know, I don't know if they'll do it,

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but they got to get a proper seeding.

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Speaker 2: That's the only way they survive in advance.

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Speaker 3: I mean it certainly would help, no question, it would

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help to you know, get a four, get a three.

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You know, you get that three seed. Now you're playing

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you know, it's a low major team that won their

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conference tournament or something like that. So at least you

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have a you know, a game in the first round

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with a large margin for ayer, you don't have to

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play your best and you should win that game. So

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that certainly would help. But there's nothing that says they

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can't get out of there with a five seed as well.

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I mean, San Diego State made we made the title

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game twenty twenty three with the five seeds, so slowly possible.

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But I think it's mainly it's less the seed and

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more just like how you got to that seed. You know,

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if they're gonna end up with a five seeds and

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they're probably going something like five and five down the stretch,

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which you know, that's just that in the South, doesn't

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bode well for trying to get to a final four.

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You know, if you end up with that three seed,

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you're gonna play some some pretty good ball down the stretch,

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and you know, regardless of what the sea line is

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as like it, you'll kind of approven that you're a

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final four contender.

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Speaker 1: Ken uh did you buy chance? Catch the look? Let

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me preface it. I love Ken Pom, I lean on

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Kim pom uh I bracket myself, uh I utilize my

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my my kin Palm analytics to to get the best

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bracket amongst my friends and family members.

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Speaker 2: I believe in kN pom Uh.

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Speaker 1: Doug Gottlieb apparently does not believe in ken Palm roy metrics.

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Speaker 2: Did you get the did you did?

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Speaker 1: Have you heard this this tirade that he went off

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on regarding your analytics?

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Speaker 3: I yes, I many many people have brought it to

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my attention, and uh, you know, it's kind of a

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badge of honor. I mean he starts off the whole tyra.

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First of all, the question that was after him had

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nothing to do with me, So it's like, yeah, he

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wants to launch this this tirade anyway he could, and

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then he like he prefaces it, but I like, yeah,

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here's a here's a viral sound bite. And you know

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he was a right, like he created a creative viral

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sound bite using my name. So I got in some ways,

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it's uh, you know, kind of a badge of honor

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that I could be on the receiving end of that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I mean, like when you hear critics right, obviously your

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metric stands at the test of time, in my opinion,

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and it continues to get better. But when you hear

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critics say things, what is it? What are they tried

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to poke Colson? What are they saying? Why are they

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critiquing it?

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Speaker 3: I'm not really sure. In Doug's case, I mean, it's, uh,

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you know, people can go listen to is his speel

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if they want. It's like four minutes long. I mean,

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I really don't recommend it. But but it's all over

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the place. It's like he's criticizing. You know, there's teams

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in his league that played really tough non conference schedules

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and apparently my system like overvalues that. And then there's

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also teams like Miami Ohio who play week non conference

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schedules and apparently might just overvalue that. And so my system,

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it seems like, just overvalues everything that the Ottley's team

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Green Bay does not do, you know. So anyway, I

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don't know why Dougs so concerned about his standing in

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my ratings. I mean, they say I ranked two thirty

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ninth as of right now, So maybe maybe I'm underrating them.

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Maybe they're like one ninety fourth or something in real life.

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I don't know, but they're a five hundred team in

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the Horizon League. So that's where where they are there.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it was just he's just ticked off at the world. Man.

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Speaker 1: That's a you know, snarky, you know, competitive and you

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know a little bit petty.

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Speaker 2: Maybe that's the reason why.

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Speaker 1: But you know, this this Big twelve conference right now,

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let's talk about the best basketball conference in basketball conferences

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right now in college basketball?

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Speaker 2: Is the Big Twelve the best? Would you say? Or

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is it the Big Ten? All?

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Speaker 3: Right, well, here we go. This is this is a

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little bit of a thorny issue. But you know, I

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do have conference ratings on my and so you know

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I rate I rate the conferences by basically how good

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you have to be to go five hundred, which people

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might think that's not usefuler or whatever, but it does

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kind of value the entire league. And in that case,

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the SEC still raises the number one league, mainly because

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the bottom of the league is so strong, Like obviously

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the top of the league is not as strong as

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it as it was last year, although you know, you

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have Florida who is rapidly advancing into a national title and

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tender consideration. But on that basis, the SEC is number one.

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You know, if you're looking at the top of the

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of the leagues. Yeah, it's certainly like a close call

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between uh, the Big twelve and the Big Ten. Might

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be a slight edge to the Big Twelve there, although

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you know the Big Ten has a case as well.

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It's hard to you know, it's really subjective, but yeah,

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in terms of the top end, in terms of the

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number of bids, like, yeah, those two leagues figure to

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have most of the storylines when we get the March.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's always intriguing, right, Like we're we're getting

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down the stretch here, We're we're not too far away

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from March madness. Some people believe it's the most wonderful

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time of the year, and look, we love it here

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at ESP and the fan and it's it's remarkable to watch,

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you know, the Cinderella stories.

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Speaker 2: What's your way too early Cinderella?

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Speaker 1: You know, like if you were to look at a

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team right now that's maybe trending in the right direction

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or could trend in the right direction to based off

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of the analytics that you're aware of, you know, who

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could be a potential Cinderella story this year?

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Speaker 2: Do you think?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the you know it turnds out, we

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frame you know, Cinderella right now in this modern era,

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they're obviously the mid Major. Cinderella has not gone extinct,

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but it certainly headed in that direction. But there is

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one team in that realm that I think stands out,

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and that is Saint Louis. Saint Louis Billikins, who have

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lost one game this year, and it was on one

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of the most unbelievable endings.

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Speaker 2: You'll see.

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Speaker 3: Saint Louis foul filed up three sort of traditional you know,

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coaching methodology, and Stanford missed their second, made their first,

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miss their second and hit a three off the rebound

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and won the game in regulation. And that that was

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think Louis the only lost. But Josh Shurton, coach at

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Saint Louis, you know he's probably in line for a

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I made your job after this season. Just runs a

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beautiful offense. People may may remember the name Robbie Avula,

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who played with Shirts in Indiana State and wears the

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uh the goggles on the court and not necessarily the

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most toned and athletic body you'll see out there, but

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very effective offensive player. It's just it's a really good

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and beat team and actually leads the country in defensive

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effective field goal percentage in the second in the country

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and offensive affective field goal percentage, So they didn't things

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right on both ends of the court, not necessarily, you know,

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playing the schedule that the high majors play, but you know,

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like tiends a pretty solid league and Saint Louis gets

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into the tournament, you know they'll certainly be that team

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that people lock onto as a potential you know, old

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school mid major Cinderella.

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Speaker 1: One of the metrics I was looking at when I

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was pulling up some BYU stuff today. Bou's luck rating

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not too good. I think they're right two hundred right now.

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Explain the luck rating to our listeners and why b

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YU hasn't been so lucky this year.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the luck rating just look at close game performance.

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So the theory is that, you know, teams don't have

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a lot of control of their outcomes, and close games

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certainly less control and close game outcomes they do. And

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you know, games that are blowouts for obvious reasons, and

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so if you win a lot of close games, you

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go up in the luck rating, and if you lose

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a lot of close games, you go down on the

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luck rating. But Pew just kind of in the middle.

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You know, the middle of Division one is about one eightieth,

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so two hundredth and it's pretty average when it comes

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right down to it. But you know, basically, just you know,

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BA just won some close games. They lost in close games.

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They haven't shown any particular direction or trend in that area.

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And it's not to say that like teams don't have

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skill in close games at all, but that skill is

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very limited. You know, you present a team with ten

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consecutive one possession games, even the best team in the land,

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and you're only gonna win six or seven of those games,

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or should only win six or seven of those games.

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Obviously they can get lucky and win ten, or they

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can get unlucky and win three. But yeah, that's basically

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the idea behind the luckrating.

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Speaker 1: Ken Palmer with Kenpalm dot com getting prep getting ready

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for some BAYU basketball BO.

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Speaker 2: You're taking out Oklahoma State.

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Speaker 1: And as you mentioned, uh, you know, they are favored

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in eight of their last ten games. And you're looking

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at the four potential big losses. Right, these are high

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level Big twelve teams. I don't think a loss comes tonight,

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but let's look at those four potential losses. If we

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could in the back end of this Big twelve schedule,

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obviously Texas Tech I stayed amongst them.

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Speaker 2: A uive is there?

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Speaker 1: Uh you know when you look at these games, what

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do you see and what do you see from these

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teams that make them just so good comparative to b YU.

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Speaker 3: Well, yeah, I mean we're looking at like the games

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you have lost. It's uh, you know, the story has

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really been you know, defensively, like offensively, they've been just fine.

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In fact, you know, the last two games they've put

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up really in terms of points for possession, some of

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the best performances against both Arizona and Kansas that those

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teams have seen all year. Uh, you should win that.

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You should win those games. I mean I put it

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anywhere plainly, but you know, you're scoring as many points

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that you know, and in terms of points for possession

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as the teams all year. Like, you know, you don't

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need to play great defense one of those games, if

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you A, you hasn't quite on the defensive end cnally

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interior defense risen to the to the call on that one.

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But but that's you know, that's kind of been the

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story lately. And uh, you know, probably with the story

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the rest of the year. Like you know, we can

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talk about you know, maybe a J De Bonds are struggling,

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you know, against Kansas or whatever. They really did a

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great jobs shutting him down, and you're going to see that,

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you know more as the year goes on. Sponsors numbers

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have suffered a little bit in Big twelve play, but

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nonetheless is still cranking along at a at a pretty

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good rate and really not the issue. It's really can

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this team defend against some of these better teams down

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the stretch. That's going to be you know, that's going

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to make the difference between you know, getting that three

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seater or getting that five seeds.

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Speaker 1: Why is b YU bad in the first half? Is

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it just all defensive related? Is that what's happening?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? I think it, Quie. You know, I've seen I've

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seen people try to ascribe some meaning to this, and

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I don't know that. You know, I did that myself.

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You know, certainly early in the season it felt like

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they were relying so much on AJ that you know,

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maybe it was just like, you know, you're not you're

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not trying as hard in the first half, You're not

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going all out in the first half because the offense

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runs so much through AJ in the second half that

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you know, you just you do have to pace yourself

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a little bit. But I'm not it's kind of gone on.

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I'm not really sure that's the case. They haven't been

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relying on AJ as much. Certainly in the Kansas game

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they didn't. So I don't know. Yeah, you know, I

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think everybody wants to describe some deep meaning here, but

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to me, it's just sort of just a bunch of

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of randomness. We'll see what happens down the stretch. But

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obviously it doesn't served by UL to dig these big holes.

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But all so they know going into the game it

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doesn't start them well, and so you know they're not

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I don't think they're doing this obviously not doing it

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on purpose. And to me, it's just like they just

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didn't dictimize a little bit by yeah, starting slow, the

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other team starts pass, but it's probably more dumb bad

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luck and than anything else.

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Speaker 1: They got one of the best trifectives in college basketball,

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no doubt about that, AJ and Richie and Rob. What

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they don't have is a productive bench. They don't have

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productive you know, ancillary auxiliary players. CaMV has been solid

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doing what he does. But uh, you know, you wonder

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who's gonna step up. There's been buzz that maybe Alexi

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could or Dominique Diomande or maybe a Tyler Marass. They

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got to find somebody off the bench. Who could it be?

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Speaker 3: Do you think, Yeah, I don't know, it's pretty late

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in the year to uh to find you know, somebody

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who's gonna be a obvious fourth option. But you know,

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it's somewhat of an issue. But like I said, like

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the offense is not even pretty good, Like yeah, we

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can we can criticize it and clearly like yeah, there's

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a lack of depth there, like they rely a lot

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on on three guys, and you know, if something were

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to happen to any of these three guys and help wise,

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like you're going to have a serious issue. But assuming

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that doesn't happen, I'm not too too concerned about, uh,

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you know, needing that fourth option necessarily. I mean, those

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three guys are are really good, and they compliment each

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other pretty well, Like there's not a lot of like

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duplication of skill there, like they all do things a

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little bit differently, and you know it's like to me,

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you need you need like Kayakta like focused on the

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defensive end, so I don't need him getting too involved offensively,

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Like he's going to extend most of his energy on

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the defensive end defending them. That's you know, a positive.

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So uh so, yeah, I don't think you're going to

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necessarily see a fourth option suddenly developed at this point

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to see them. But I also don't think it's a

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real issue. Like the offense is humming pretty good, and

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it's humming on nights when even when AJ is not,

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you know, playing great, or Richie Sautner's Rob Wright is

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not you know, necessarily contributing up to their match, like,

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it just finds a way to work. So like, to me,

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the offense for for all the things we could complain about,

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has been really really solid.

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Speaker 1: Ken Pomroy, I salute you. I appreciate you always learned something.

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I invite everyone to follow you on x subscribe to

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00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:42,440
Kenpomroy dot com for the best analytics in college basketball

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00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:44,319
so they can fill out their brackets a little bit

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00:18:44,359 --> 00:18:46,720
more accurately, so they can could debate with their friends

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00:18:47,319 --> 00:18:49,799
more fervently. Ken Palm, nobody does it better. Ken, thanks

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00:18:49,799 --> 00:18:51,200
so much for joining us once again.

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Speaker 3: All right, thanks man, appreciate it.

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Speaker 2: I always appreciate our time.

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Speaker 1: Ken Pomroy, Ladies and gentlemen, that's our show We're sticking

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Speaker 2: Please support our sponsors.

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Speaker 1: Shout out to everyone they joined us and Bicker Ruda,

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Speaker 2: Ken, palm Roy.

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Speaker 1: We had a star set, a cast David Hunsicker, Darneld Dixon,

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you a very good night, have a safe night you've

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been listening to