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Speaker 2: Let's get out to the hotline. Welcome in.
Speaker 1: Ken Pomeroy representing Kenpalm dot com, the man of metrics
regarding college basketball.
Speaker 2: Ken, how the heck are you? Hey?
Speaker 3: Ben's doing great, doing great. Thanks having me on.
Speaker 1: Always a pleasure, always a blessing. Talking some ball with you.
BYU Basketball, let's start off with this. Ken Pom favors
b YU and nine of their last ten. If BYU
goes nine to one in their last ten games, what
type of seeding do you think they could get in
the NCAA tournament.
Speaker 3: They go to nine to one, they're looking at you know,
probably a two. Yeah, that'd be a'd be an incredible run.
It should be, it should be noted. And even though
and I'm looking at it right now, I haven't favored
in eight of their last ten.
Speaker 1: But oh yeah, okay, so I thought it was nine
out of their last ten. It was about a couple
of days ago. Now it's eight o their last ten
that they're favorite.
Speaker 3: Yeah, the Iowa State Yeah, the Iowa State game flipped
to an L. But the point I want to make
is that many of those wins are by small margins,
and actually collectively, when you count for the probability, I
have them going what six and four down the stratch,
so you know, probably a more realistic expectation of what
the future holds here.
Speaker 1: So six and four is the more more realistic expectation
in these last ten games.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean you just don't you know, you're not
gonna win every game you're you're favored by, right, especially
when you're only favored by you know, two, three, four
points in some cases. So, uh so you know they'll
be potentially favored in eight or ten, But the most
likely record is winning six out of ten.
Speaker 1: If they win six out of ten, what type of
seeding do you think they get in that case?
Speaker 3: Probably you know you're probably looking at a four. I'd
there four.
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's no, do you think there's a chance that
this team ends up being a five seed NCUAA tournament.
Is there a world in which that could happen? Because
I'm dreading that day.
Speaker 3: I mean it's possible, yeah, I mean it certainly, like yeah,
they you know, I mean there aren't there aren't any
gimmes on them on this suysule down the stretch, so
you know, it's certainly possible. But I'm curious why you're
why you're dreading.
Speaker 1: That well, I just feel like the five twelves, I
just don't feel good about it if this is the
reason why. And you could probably pull up some of
this data too. But b YU has gone to the
NCUBLE Tournament more than any other team without seeing a
final four.
Speaker 2: The only way they get to a final four this year.
They have great talent.
Speaker 1: I don't know, I don't know if they'll do it,
but they got to get a proper seeding.
Speaker 2: That's the only way they survive in advance.
Speaker 3: I mean it certainly would help, no question, it would
help to you know, get a four, get a three.
You know, you get that three seed. Now you're playing
you know, it's a low major team that won their
conference tournament or something like that. So at least you
have a you know, a game in the first round
with a large margin for ayer, you don't have to
play your best and you should win that game. So
that certainly would help. But there's nothing that says they
can't get out of there with a five seed as well.
I mean, San Diego State made we made the title
game twenty twenty three with the five seeds, so slowly possible.
But I think it's mainly it's less the seed and
more just like how you got to that seed. You know,
if they're gonna end up with a five seeds and
they're probably going something like five and five down the stretch,
which you know, that's just that in the South, doesn't
bode well for trying to get to a final four.
You know, if you end up with that three seed,
you're gonna play some some pretty good ball down the stretch,
and you know, regardless of what the sea line is
as like it, you'll kind of approven that you're a
final four contender.
Speaker 1: Ken uh did you buy chance? Catch the look? Let
me preface it. I love Ken Pom, I lean on
Kim pom uh I bracket myself, uh I utilize my
my my kin Palm analytics to to get the best
bracket amongst my friends and family members.
Speaker 2: I believe in kN pom Uh.
Speaker 1: Doug Gottlieb apparently does not believe in ken Palm roy metrics.
Speaker 2: Did you get the did you did?
Speaker 1: Have you heard this this tirade that he went off
on regarding your analytics?
Speaker 3: I yes, I many many people have brought it to
my attention, and uh, you know, it's kind of a
badge of honor. I mean he starts off the whole tyra.
First of all, the question that was after him had
nothing to do with me, So it's like, yeah, he
wants to launch this this tirade anyway he could, and
then he like he prefaces it, but I like, yeah,
here's a here's a viral sound bite. And you know
he was a right, like he created a creative viral
sound bite using my name. So I got in some ways,
it's uh, you know, kind of a badge of honor
that I could be on the receiving end of that.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I mean, like when you hear critics right, obviously your
metric stands at the test of time, in my opinion,
and it continues to get better. But when you hear
critics say things, what is it? What are they tried
to poke Colson? What are they saying? Why are they
critiquing it?
Speaker 3: I'm not really sure. In Doug's case, I mean, it's, uh,
you know, people can go listen to is his speel
if they want. It's like four minutes long. I mean,
I really don't recommend it. But but it's all over
the place. It's like he's criticizing. You know, there's teams
in his league that played really tough non conference schedules
and apparently my system like overvalues that. And then there's
also teams like Miami Ohio who play week non conference
schedules and apparently might just overvalue that. And so my system,
it seems like, just overvalues everything that the Ottley's team
Green Bay does not do, you know. So anyway, I
don't know why Dougs so concerned about his standing in
my ratings. I mean, they say I ranked two thirty
ninth as of right now, So maybe maybe I'm underrating them.
Maybe they're like one ninety fourth or something in real life.
I don't know, but they're a five hundred team in
the Horizon League. So that's where where they are there.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was just he's just ticked off at the world. Man.
Speaker 1: That's a you know, snarky, you know, competitive and you
know a little bit petty.
Speaker 2: Maybe that's the reason why.
Speaker 1: But you know, this this Big twelve conference right now,
let's talk about the best basketball conference in basketball conferences
right now in college basketball?
Speaker 2: Is the Big Twelve the best? Would you say? Or
is it the Big Ten? All?
Speaker 3: Right, well, here we go. This is this is a
little bit of a thorny issue. But you know, I
do have conference ratings on my and so you know
I rate I rate the conferences by basically how good
you have to be to go five hundred, which people
might think that's not usefuler or whatever, but it does
kind of value the entire league. And in that case,
the SEC still raises the number one league, mainly because
the bottom of the league is so strong, Like obviously
the top of the league is not as strong as
it as it was last year, although you know, you
have Florida who is rapidly advancing into a national title and
tender consideration. But on that basis, the SEC is number one.
You know, if you're looking at the top of the
of the leagues. Yeah, it's certainly like a close call
between uh, the Big twelve and the Big Ten. Might
be a slight edge to the Big Twelve there, although
you know the Big Ten has a case as well.
It's hard to you know, it's really subjective, but yeah,
in terms of the top end, in terms of the
number of bids, like, yeah, those two leagues figure to
have most of the storylines when we get the March.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's always intriguing, right, Like we're we're getting
down the stretch here, We're we're not too far away
from March madness. Some people believe it's the most wonderful
time of the year, and look, we love it here
at ESP and the fan and it's it's remarkable to watch,
you know, the Cinderella stories.
Speaker 2: What's your way too early Cinderella?
Speaker 1: You know, like if you were to look at a
team right now that's maybe trending in the right direction
or could trend in the right direction to based off
of the analytics that you're aware of, you know, who
could be a potential Cinderella story this year?
Speaker 2: Do you think?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the you know it turnds out, we
frame you know, Cinderella right now in this modern era,
they're obviously the mid Major. Cinderella has not gone extinct,
but it certainly headed in that direction. But there is
one team in that realm that I think stands out,
and that is Saint Louis. Saint Louis Billikins, who have
lost one game this year, and it was on one
of the most unbelievable endings.
Speaker 2: You'll see.
Speaker 3: Saint Louis foul filed up three sort of traditional you know,
coaching methodology, and Stanford missed their second, made their first,
miss their second and hit a three off the rebound
and won the game in regulation. And that that was
think Louis the only lost. But Josh Shurton, coach at
Saint Louis, you know he's probably in line for a
I made your job after this season. Just runs a
beautiful offense. People may may remember the name Robbie Avula,
who played with Shirts in Indiana State and wears the
uh the goggles on the court and not necessarily the
most toned and athletic body you'll see out there, but
very effective offensive player. It's just it's a really good
and beat team and actually leads the country in defensive
effective field goal percentage in the second in the country
and offensive affective field goal percentage, So they didn't things
right on both ends of the court, not necessarily, you know,
playing the schedule that the high majors play, but you know,
like tiends a pretty solid league and Saint Louis gets
into the tournament, you know they'll certainly be that team
that people lock onto as a potential you know, old
school mid major Cinderella.
Speaker 1: One of the metrics I was looking at when I
was pulling up some BYU stuff today. Bou's luck rating
not too good. I think they're right two hundred right now.
Explain the luck rating to our listeners and why b
YU hasn't been so lucky this year.
Speaker 3: Yeah, the luck rating just look at close game performance.
So the theory is that, you know, teams don't have
a lot of control of their outcomes, and close games
certainly less control and close game outcomes they do. And
you know, games that are blowouts for obvious reasons, and
so if you win a lot of close games, you
go up in the luck rating, and if you lose
a lot of close games, you go down on the
luck rating. But Pew just kind of in the middle.
You know, the middle of Division one is about one eightieth,
so two hundredth and it's pretty average when it comes
right down to it. But you know, basically, just you know,
BA just won some close games. They lost in close games.
They haven't shown any particular direction or trend in that area.
And it's not to say that like teams don't have
skill in close games at all, but that skill is
very limited. You know, you present a team with ten
consecutive one possession games, even the best team in the land,
and you're only gonna win six or seven of those games,
or should only win six or seven of those games.
Obviously they can get lucky and win ten, or they
can get unlucky and win three. But yeah, that's basically
the idea behind the luckrating.
Speaker 1: Ken Palmer with Kenpalm dot com getting prep getting ready
for some BAYU basketball BO.
Speaker 2: You're taking out Oklahoma State.
Speaker 1: And as you mentioned, uh, you know, they are favored
in eight of their last ten games. And you're looking
at the four potential big losses. Right, these are high
level Big twelve teams. I don't think a loss comes tonight,
but let's look at those four potential losses. If we
could in the back end of this Big twelve schedule,
obviously Texas Tech I stayed amongst them.
Speaker 2: A uive is there?
Speaker 1: Uh you know when you look at these games, what
do you see and what do you see from these
teams that make them just so good comparative to b YU.
Speaker 3: Well, yeah, I mean we're looking at like the games
you have lost. It's uh, you know, the story has
really been you know, defensively, like offensively, they've been just fine.
In fact, you know, the last two games they've put
up really in terms of points for possession, some of
the best performances against both Arizona and Kansas that those
teams have seen all year. Uh, you should win that.
You should win those games. I mean I put it
anywhere plainly, but you know, you're scoring as many points
that you know, and in terms of points for possession
as the teams all year. Like, you know, you don't
need to play great defense one of those games, if
you A, you hasn't quite on the defensive end cnally
interior defense risen to the to the call on that one.
But but that's you know, that's kind of been the
story lately. And uh, you know, probably with the story
the rest of the year. Like you know, we can
talk about you know, maybe a J De Bonds are struggling,
you know, against Kansas or whatever. They really did a
great jobs shutting him down, and you're going to see that,
you know more as the year goes on. Sponsors numbers
have suffered a little bit in Big twelve play, but
nonetheless is still cranking along at a at a pretty
good rate and really not the issue. It's really can
this team defend against some of these better teams down
the stretch. That's going to be you know, that's going
to make the difference between you know, getting that three
seater or getting that five seeds.
Speaker 1: Why is b YU bad in the first half? Is
it just all defensive related? Is that what's happening?
Speaker 3: Yeah? I think it, Quie. You know, I've seen I've
seen people try to ascribe some meaning to this, and
I don't know that. You know, I did that myself.
You know, certainly early in the season it felt like
they were relying so much on AJ that you know,
maybe it was just like, you know, you're not you're
not trying as hard in the first half, You're not
going all out in the first half because the offense
runs so much through AJ in the second half that
you know, you just you do have to pace yourself
a little bit. But I'm not it's kind of gone on.
I'm not really sure that's the case. They haven't been
relying on AJ as much. Certainly in the Kansas game
they didn't. So I don't know. Yeah, you know, I
think everybody wants to describe some deep meaning here, but
to me, it's just sort of just a bunch of
of randomness. We'll see what happens down the stretch. But
obviously it doesn't served by UL to dig these big holes.
But all so they know going into the game it
doesn't start them well, and so you know they're not
I don't think they're doing this obviously not doing it
on purpose. And to me, it's just like they just
didn't dictimize a little bit by yeah, starting slow, the
other team starts pass, but it's probably more dumb bad
luck and than anything else.
Speaker 1: They got one of the best trifectives in college basketball,
no doubt about that, AJ and Richie and Rob. What
they don't have is a productive bench. They don't have
productive you know, ancillary auxiliary players. CaMV has been solid
doing what he does. But uh, you know, you wonder
who's gonna step up. There's been buzz that maybe Alexi
could or Dominique Diomande or maybe a Tyler Marass. They
got to find somebody off the bench. Who could it be?
Speaker 3: Do you think, Yeah, I don't know, it's pretty late
in the year to uh to find you know, somebody
who's gonna be a obvious fourth option. But you know,
it's somewhat of an issue. But like I said, like
the offense is not even pretty good, Like yeah, we
can we can criticize it and clearly like yeah, there's
a lack of depth there, like they rely a lot
on on three guys, and you know, if something were
to happen to any of these three guys and help wise,
like you're going to have a serious issue. But assuming
that doesn't happen, I'm not too too concerned about, uh,
you know, needing that fourth option necessarily. I mean, those
three guys are are really good, and they compliment each
other pretty well, Like there's not a lot of like
duplication of skill there, like they all do things a
little bit differently, and you know it's like to me,
you need you need like Kayakta like focused on the
defensive end, so I don't need him getting too involved offensively,
Like he's going to extend most of his energy on
the defensive end defending them. That's you know, a positive.
So uh so, yeah, I don't think you're going to
necessarily see a fourth option suddenly developed at this point
to see them. But I also don't think it's a
real issue. Like the offense is humming pretty good, and
it's humming on nights when even when AJ is not,
you know, playing great, or Richie Sautner's Rob Wright is
not you know, necessarily contributing up to their match, like,
it just finds a way to work. So like, to me,
the offense for for all the things we could complain about,
has been really really solid.
Speaker 1: Ken Pomroy, I salute you. I appreciate you always learned something.
I invite everyone to follow you on x subscribe to
Kenpomroy dot com for the best analytics in college basketball
so they can fill out their brackets a little bit
more accurately, so they can could debate with their friends
more fervently. Ken Palm, nobody does it better. Ken, thanks
so much for joining us once again.
Speaker 3: All right, thanks man, appreciate it.
Speaker 2: I always appreciate our time.
Speaker 1: Ken Pomroy, Ladies and gentlemen, that's our show We're sticking
to with guys down Boath the podcast, iTunes, Freak or
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Speaker 1: Shout out to everyone they joined us and Bicker Ruda,
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Speaker 2: Ken, palm Roy.
Speaker 1: We had a star set, a cast David Hunsicker, Darneld Dixon,
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