Speaker 1: The manufacturing demand is so strong and the supply is
not there for it. But you know, it's not like
we're going to stop building AI data centers. It's not
like Tesla's going to stop building cyber trucks. That's going
to keep going. So now it's a supply and demand
issue in the physical market. We've anticipated this for a
long long time. The recipe was there, it made sense.
It was just a matter of when it hits. And
I don't think anyone necessarily gets its twenty twenty five,
but you know, then twenty twenty five silver takes off
and no one can stop it.
Speaker 2: You were listening to Carrie. Let'sa's Financial Survival Network where
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Speaker 3: And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial
Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Lutz. Michael Aries is
with us now. Michael, Hey, I know we're collectively popping
the champagne corks. The run up in silver especially has
been nothing short of stupendous, but nothing less forever. It's
a parabolic move, so you got to be a little wary.
Speaker 1: Right, Well, it depends depends on where we are in
that parabolic move. So yeah, thanks again for having me back,
Carrie love being here's Yeah, I guess it really depends
on where we're at. If we're just out of the
starting gate, they'll then hang on for the ride, you know.
If we've made three or four laps, then be looking
at okay, am I getting close to the finish And honestly,
I think we're just out of the starting gate. I
think this can go much higher. So people might say, oh,
silver went from forty or fifty to almost ninety right now,
recently it's like, oh, it's gone too high, it's gone
straight up. I should probably sell some and well there's
a way to do that that's beneficial. We were talking
about trading silver gold before if you started at the
right ratio. But even just thinking about getting getting out
of metals or reducing our position, I just don't think
we're there yet. We haven't fixed anything, not only with
the money printing that's been going on forever, but any
of our geopolitical issues, any of the supply issues. And
that's been the big thing with silvery. There's there's we're
using it up, there's not enough supply. Now we're catching
up to the physical supply. So we haven't fixed any
of the problems that are driving this move. So we're
just we're just getting going as crazy as it seems.
And you know, we got to look for some pretty
significant changes compared to what we see now before we
start saying, Okay, now now it's time to start selling.
I think it's going to be much higher prices, higher
triple digit prices before we get to the Oh, gotta
gotta start, gotta start getting getting out of this before
it drops.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm inclined to agree with you. I think it's
got a ways to go. But but what's happening with
the paper metal market. It seems to me it's broken,
and uh, it's not going to get fixed anytime soon. Yeah.
Speaker 1: What's interesting to me, Carrie, is that the paper manipulation
games that we've seen happen in silver aren't working anymore,
Like they're literally ineffective. So I was here at mclvany
Precious Metals in twenty eleven, when in May of twenty eleven,
silver got to fifty for the second time in history,
and the comics smashed it. They raised margin requirements like
nine times in one week, so you know, got to
fifty and then it was back down to thirty five
within a few days, and it was crushing. But here
they are this time now trying it again as silver
went over fifty. I'm trying to look on the chart
the other day. It was a few weeks ago, but
the day it was getting around sixty two sixty three,
big margin requirement change, big intry day, sell off, and
then the next day ripping right back up, and it's like, oh,
it's not working anymore. The paper games they play the
paper market in silver where they naked short it manipulate
the price down. It's not working, and there's too much
of a need for physical for whether it's Samsung or Tistler, whoever,
they've got to have it. They got to pay any
price for it because they're not going to stop with
their making and building, right, So the paper games aren't
aren't working anymore. And now now it's you know, pushing ninety,
and it's like, well, so much for them. Keeping it down.
Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, that's like we had another margin increase
last night, right, and again silver is up you know
three bucks an ounce, yep.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and we're getting these big swings too. It's hard
to keep keep track of that when the range can
be you know, ten dollars, you know, up one day
and down two days later and then back up. But yeah,
the margin, these margin hikes are not working. It's like, okay,
what is it going to take to cause enough selling
to push silver down, to overwhelm the buying pressure that
there is. I mean when I look at the price charts,
the buying pressure is crazy. You know, I watch this
all day as I'm advising clients and and doing trades
for clients, and you know, every little drop get gets
bought and it shoots back up and then drops again,
boom gets bought and drops it. And it's been doing
that for months. There's so much buying pressure it's crazy
and it's not stopping. And now there's so many support
lines on the price charge, so it's like what what
what can they do to push it down? What can
the paper market do to push it down? There's just
every opportunity gets bought up now.
Speaker 3: Well, so I've heard some people talk about force masure.
Do you think that's a possibility here.
Speaker 1: I think it's a very good possibility. I just don't know.
I mean, I can't predict where it's going to come from,
when it's going to come from. But yeah, if you're
talking about you know, something like that where you know,
someone asks for delivery and it's not there and suddenly,
you know, some big exchange has to go get it
wherever they can find it and pay whatever price they
have to pay for it. I mean, we're definitely in
an environment where that could happen, whether that's now or
whether that's you know, when silver gets to one hundred
and fifty dollars an ounce. You know, those are the
kind of things we talked about years and years ago
when silver was still twenty and it's sort of you know,
you're sort of imagining off in the future and like, oh,
this could happen. The elements are there, you know, now
in this environment, it's like, yeah, that could happen tomorrow.
Could that could easily happen? So who you know, who
knows when or how, but the situation is right for that,
you know, some big player, you know, some manufacturer needs
so much silver, they take, they go to get the
delivery their contracts and there's not enough. Yeah, who's going
to sell it to them? What price are they going
to have to pay?
Speaker 3: Yeah? Well, and then you have no price discovery at
the COMEX anymore. And then it really becomes a physical
only market, right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that's what it's turning into. I think
that's why the price is going up like this. It's
the manufacturing demand is so strong and the supply is
not there for it. But you know, it's not like
we're going to stop building AI data centers. It's not
like Tesla's going to stop building cyber trucks. That's going
to keep going. So now it's a supply and demand
issue the physical market. We've anticipated this for a long
long time. The recipe was there, it made sense. It
was just a matter of when it hits, and I
don't think anyone necessarily guessed it was twenty twenty five.
But you know, then twenty twenty five, silver takes off
and no one can stop it because yeah, we need it,
we need it for AI, and there's not enough to
go around. That's just not like a big pile sitting there,
everyone goes to it. It's not like a big pile
of gravel at the you know, landscape store. We're just,
you know, go take another shovelful, like it's not there.
Speaker 3: Do you think they'll confiscate or expropriate at some point?
I hope not.
Speaker 1: I tend to want to be one of those that
doesn't think that that'll happen, that that we'll get there.
Certainly the ingredients are there for that as well. There's laws,
there's precedent, there's need for it. I mentioned it in
a webinar I did for clients recently that yeah, the
the US put it on the Critical Minerals list just
in November, so certainly the possibility is there. I hope
it doesn't get to that. I hope we don't have to,
you know, barter with it or hide it or whatever,
try to sell it somewhere else in the world where
we can actually get our money out of it. But
it's certainly possible, but I would think that it's not
beneficial enough to do that quite yet for the government,
and they'll still let it trade freely. But I don't know,
I don't know. I guess we need to be prepared
for anything.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well they've done it before, and unlike last time,
which was purely for monetary purposes, this time they would
use national defense and basically shortage and the need for
weaponry for AI for everything. And we both know there's
no substitute for.
Speaker 1: Silver, right right, Yeah, yeah, we can't use copper, we
can't use other things, the applications for silver inelectronics, there's
no replacement for it. So we have to have it.
And now China's restricting exports of it. They're the biggest
refiner and one of the biggest miners, and we're entering
this Cold War two point zero, you know, after we
went into Venezuela. You know, we're trying to assert our
authority in the region and as you know, China had
been trying to get in there, and so there's this
new Cold War going on. So yeah, of course we're
we're gonna need it for defense purposes and build up,
and China's restricting it. So yeah, it could get to
that point, or it could just get more and more expensive.
As you know, you've got a new player in the game.
You've got the government buying it up for everything they
needed for and still again not enough to go around.
Speaker 3: So all right, so what are you supposed to do here? Like, obviously,
when you see silver nearly triple and the gold going
so much higher, people you're going to be wary of
putting more money, worrying that you're catching the top. Right.
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, I think I've had a lot of folks
that are wanting to get on the trend and not
miss it, and they're still buying now. Some that have
wanted to sell when it's high like this. But I
think a couple of things carry one. I think we're
going much higher. I think we can see two hundred
three hundred dollars silver. I don't know when. I'm not
going to make timing predictions, so whether it's next year
or this year, we can see multiple triple digit silver.
So it's not too late to buy. It's just a
matter of hanging on for the ride and whatever price
volatility we go through. Second, for anyone that has bought
previously and has big gains in silver, really anytime in
the last five years that you've bought silver was a
much higher price ratio to gold, and now at this
point you can trade your silver for more gold than
you could have bought originally if you'd bought gold, so
capturing some of this over performance in silver, capturing some
of those profits in gold and in free ounces of gold.
So still keeping your precious metals position, having that wealth protection,
but also reallocating taking profits out of silver, having less
volatility in gold is a great way to do it.
So if we still see silver go to two hundred, great,
keep some of your silver, but you know, don't sell
it now and then wish you had kept it.
Speaker 3: But trade a portion for gold.
Speaker 1: Get some free ounces of gold if you started, you know,
anytime in the last few years when the ratio is
eighty to one or one hundred to one. Now at
fifty to one, yeah, trade it for extra free gold.
So reallocate a little bit, keep your precious metals position,
lock in that over performance in free ounces, and still
hang on for the ride. Because again, we haven't fixed anything.
This isn't I don't think the end of prices are
the end of the trend. Be prepared for volatility and
sell offs. Maybe some resistance points here on the price chart,
but we're not done overall. I don't think.
Speaker 3: All right, Well, that's pretty much my take on it
as well, And so if you're not in it, you
need to get in it now, maybe because you might
not have the opportunity later. And hey, if the government
goes knocking on everybody's doors trying to get their silver,
they're obviously going to be paying a huge premium over
whatever we believe the physical price is.
Speaker 1: Right, probably hopefully.
Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, So how do we find you? How
do we connect with you? Read your work Michael?
Speaker 1: H Yeah, if you go to mcelvany dot com, forward
slash Michael mcilvanny's mc a l v a n y
mckelvaney forward slash Michael, or just call or text me
nine seven zero four five nine four six one one.
I'm available to chat and advise and answer questions and
help folks navigate these markets.
Speaker 3: Excellent. Appreciate you. Coming on. I've got a question for
Michael myself. Shoot me an email and it's kl at
carrie lets dot com. Make sure you go over to
the substack Financial Survival Network dot com or Kerrie Lets
dot com and subscribe so you get the latest info.
Really appreciate you being with us, Michael. We'll talk to
you again soon.
Speaker 1: All right, Thanks, carry appreciate it, Thanks for listening.
Speaker 2: To Carrie Let's's Financial Survival Network your solution to today's
trying times. For the latest, go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com.
Financial Survival Network now more than ever,