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Speaker 1: The trade deal President Trump and the EU when he

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wasn't golfing and you know, putting black and brown people

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in cages and such, cut himself a trade deal. Zach

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Abraham's going to address that for us. He is the

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chief investment officer Bulwark Capital Management. He's my friend and

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my brother, and he joins us from an undisclosed location

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deep in it. Wait, that's Mark Levin's, deep in a

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hidden bunker. He joins us from some place in North

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America courtesy of God Almighty.

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Speaker 2: But Todd Herman show is one disapproved by big pharma

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technocrats in Tyrone Sebrianwhere from the high mountains of Free America.

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Here's the Emerald city exile Todd Herman.

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Speaker 1: Today is the day the Lord has made, and these

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are the times through which God is decided we shall live.

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Zach Abraham joins us somewhere high in the mountains. Good

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to have you here, my brother.

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Speaker 3: How are you good? Good? I'm doing better today, man. Good?

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Speaker 1: Now you been the part of Washington State where they

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don't where they haven't legalized one hundred and fifty to

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two hundred and fifty thousand dollars race based payoffs for

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loans that don't need to be paid back for racial minorities.

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Is that is that a different part of Washington State

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or are you still in the same state.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah, that's kind of like that line in Tombstone,

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you know that that don't go around here, right? Yeah,

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this is this is much more. It reminds me a

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lot of the Free Mountains of Idaho. Actually, yeah, and

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similar similar folks. I think it's kind of one of

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the dichotomies of our state that people don't really understand,

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which is, you know, outside of King County, especially on

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the east side of the state, it's a very very conservative,

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traditional values type place. You know.

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Speaker 1: Oh, totally get that. And I wanted to ask you,

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you know your your kids are you have a mixed

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race kids? Is what the world would call it. I

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hate that because it's just dude, they're just your kids,

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right right, But they're old enough to get some of

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that coin.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. No, no, no, hey, I didn't, I didn't. I

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didn't say that. We weren't filling out the apps. Okay,

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we're getting in line now. Unfortunately, I think a lot

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of those things are means tested, so they're gonna get

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pushed out. Yeah, well, they're not going to I'm going

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to no, but it's uh yeah, they you know that,

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and and I know you know this, and I know

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the vast majority of your listeners know it too, but

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you said it. It's how it's how ridiculous all of

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this stuff is, you know what I mean, especially the

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race stuff. Like you hear people say things along those

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racial lines, you know, and a lot of times they

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mean it positively, talking about oh, we need to do

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this for black people. Yeah, and you look at them

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and go have you ever talked to the black people?

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Do you know if that's what they want from it?

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Speaker 2: Right?

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Speaker 3: Like these not these are not people that cannot help themselves.

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Speaker 1: But I want democrats to try this sometime. Is go

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to a place I'm thinking, uh oh, I'm picking American City,

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go to Saint Louis, I don't care. And there's a

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black person standing in line in the grocery store, and

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I want a white person to come say, hey, let

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me help you, because you know this is this this

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is a dollar sign and I mean, you know how

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much are you sure you've got the money for this?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: You could afford this, and just go just like go

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physically pander to anybody and like do this, do this,

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Like go find there's areas around the country everywhere, like

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you're not that par far probably from Yakamau, Washington. There's

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Hispanic people there who owned wineries for years, and I

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mean they're super successful. And go get some illegal immigrants

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who are living in Seattle, bust them over and drive

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up to one of the mansions of one of the

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Hispanic families who's owned these winers for years and say,

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got your illegals, let's let's let's let's get them in

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your house here. And they're like all tatted up and

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they're like, you know, they're actually like diagar Ms thirteen

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and you see the confused looks, what are you doing here?

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Like I'm thinking of one family in particular that there's

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Amora family and I knew them to wresting. They're get

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off my property, right yeah, pandor physically.

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Speaker 3: Man, Yeah no, I I couldn't. I couldn't agree more.

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And uh. And it's one of those things when you

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hear people, you hear people going off on those diatribes. Yeah,

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like I said, you can't help, but just sit there

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look at them and go, hey, do you know anybody

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that's a minority because you talk like you don't, you know,

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like I I just the lady doth protests too much,

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you know. But yeah, that's that's the world we're living in.

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Speaker 2: It.

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Speaker 1: I know it is. I know it is. We're gonna

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get into some economic stuff and I think we need

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to look at the three percent growth in the GDP.

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We'll do that with Zach Abraham in just a second.

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Cheer one are the big drivers. Unfrankly, one of the

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things that keeps California a float is Hollywood. Hollywood in

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Silicon Valley keeps California float. And it would be very

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hard for Hollywood to real locate, but maybe one day

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they will. Angel Studios has gone into Hollywood and they've

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changed the dynamic here and they've done something again that's

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changed in dynamic. They had King of King's great animated

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feature in the Life of the Lord Jesus, you know

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them for Sound of Freedom. They just made what's truly

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a brave Christian series called Testament. And here's why it's

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brave because it's not soft, soap, feel good Christianity. It

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asks a super tough question, that is, will you stand

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for Christ when the world puts your face up against

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the wall and when they get the boot in your neck.

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And what they've done is they've taken the Book of Acts,

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They've relocated it into a time period of a censorship country,

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a surveillance country, and a country that hates the truth.

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And you get to watch as the people who built

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Christ Church characterize here in the film, go through this

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and it's time to ask yourself a question. Could you

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do it? You can stream Testament right now. Go to

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Angel dot com slash todd. Become a premium Angel Studio

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Guild member. Stream Testament, get two free tickets to any

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of their theatrical releases. Plus you get to vote on

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the movies that they produce and distribute and promote. That's

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Angel dot com slash todd. Go support this movement for

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brave and in fact, potentially costly societally programming like this

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Testament Angel dot com, slash todd. So this is from Heatherlong.

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GDP US economy saw three percent growth in GDP Q two,

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but it was highly unusual Number one. Massive decline in

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imports thirty five percent for goods lifted. The GDP consumption

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was plus one point four percent, solid but not spectacular.

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Number Business investment declined in Q two. This is an

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economy running above one percent. If you strip out the

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trade noise, real final sales to provide domestic purchase was

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one point two percent. That's a lot of stuff that

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people like me Right now, my ears are bleeding. But

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you probably have already figured this all out. So what

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is the true picture about the gross domestic product of

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the United States? And this Q two so.

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Speaker 3: Interestingly enough, I would say that those domestic numbers actually

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lend toward what Trump has been saying in terms of

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those are numbers that would be more conducive with cutting rates,

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meaning what I think you've got here. And look, we're spitballing.

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You know. One of the things we say all the

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time is you know I and I apply this to

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myself absolutely, which is, whenever we're talking about economic prognostications

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or understanding economic numbers that are as big and expansive

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and as you know, complete is GDP, let's all take

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a big grain assault because you know, modern economies are

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the most dynamic systems in the world, right and so

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things can change. But what it looks like to me

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is that due to tariffs, you've got some strengthening effects

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and you've got some weakening effects in terms of the data. Right,

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So there's certain things the way this shakes out that,

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believe it or not, certain numbers are going to look

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better because of tariffs. Certain numbers are going to look worse.

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The consumption numbers are key, those are very weak. Right,

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Yet at the same time, you're growing at three percent.

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The smoking gun to me, and what we think is

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going on is we think you're absolutely going through a

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soft patch here economically that we're probably overdue for for

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a variety of different reasons. And I think that that's

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getting offset by the unbelievable amounts of capital expenditure that

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are going into building out data centers and all the

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AI stuff. Thatactly because yeah, because when I see three

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percent VDP, and I haven't broken down the numbers directly yet,

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I've gone through the headline numbers like you're talking about.

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When I look at that underlying data that is not

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conducive and supportive to a three percent growth number. So

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you've seen this persistent growth, yet you've seen these things.

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If you told me imports are down double digits in

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a quarter, I'm immediately looking at you and going under

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normal circumstances. Oh oh yeah, you probably had some kind

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of contraction. Right, So when you see a number like that,

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but you're still seeing a posting of a positive GDP number,

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I have nothing other than to believe that that's got

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to be mostly off of the AI Data Data Center effect.

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Speaker 2: Wow.

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Speaker 3: So I actually think that that kind of puts some

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bullets and Trump's gun. As for cutting, now, is there

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enough there to cut anywhere close as much as he wants? No? No,

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I mean if you're talking about cutting one hundred and

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fifty basis points or two hundred basis points, that's emergency

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cut stuff, and there's nowhere near the data for that.

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Now that being said, we have a FED decision that

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I believe coming out today, don't we.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we're recording on Wednesday. So yeah, I think the

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FED comes decisions.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Now I'd be highly shocked if they

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cut this may on My assumption is they probably already

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had the decision made by the time this data came out.

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You may get a token twenty five per set or

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a twenty five basis point cut, but the markets got

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priced in no cut. So you know, like I've told you,

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what is it, It's been one time in the past twenty

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five years where the FED made a decision that was

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not previously priced in by the market.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: So now, the one thing I would say that you

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may get a break from that is this is pretty

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extraordinary circumstances when you talk about the head of the

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FED and the way that he is getting along with

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the president, so or not he's fee or not right,

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and so he's got some definitely some flames underneath his feet.

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So it wouldn't shock me to see them cut twenty

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five but it would be pretty rare. I mean, it's

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it's not a very not a very common occurrence for

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the for the FED against the market.

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Speaker 1: Who do you like in a cage match? Trump or

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Jerry Powell?

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Speaker 3: Oh man physically against Trump? Yeah, you can't go against Trump? No,

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I yeah, I mean Powell looks like he's probably a

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better shape, but uh no, Yeah, Trump, he's yeah, he's

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he's hey. After I saw get up, after I saw

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that man get up with a bloody year and talk

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about andre O fight fight fight, I'll have criticisms for

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him times, but for being top is gonna be one

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of them.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you just reminded me something and this is one

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of the things I love about your methodology at Bulwark

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is you're talking about these AI data centers and I

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just remember, I don't remember if it was a year

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ago or two years ago where we're talking about. We

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did a show on kind of a topic on investments

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a lot of people haven't seen, and you came on

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and you talked about the least sexy, most boring topic

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ever on my podcast. It was the most fascinating financial

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thing I'd ever heard, and you went on with the

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big sexy. You were buying lots of local utilities, small

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regional utilities, and a lot of the people in my

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audience are used to hearing about bitcoin and what small

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local utilities, and you were saying, Yeah, there's going to

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be this massive increase in this need for electricity. We've

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got all these dictats for electric cars, which Trump has

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now canceled. But man, I'm thinking back about that now

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and if I'm sitting on the board of a regional

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electrical utility and the data center came in, that's that's

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my retirement payoff right there. That's got to be huge

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for these guys.

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Speaker 3: Oh yeah, well, it's a great It's really sharp that

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you bring that up because I think that this data

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center AI topic really helps you get your hands around

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and head around how big this AI spend really is. Yeah,

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I mean look at you you can go look at

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the impact it's had on uranium prices in small modular

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reactor companies that are you know that there's specializing these

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small modular reactors. They've gone nuts, you know, I shoot,

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I was. I mean, it wasn't even that long ago,

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probably twenty eighteen, we were talking about how we thought

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uranium was a goodbye, you know, and I remember at

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that time chemical was trading it, you know, eight eight fifty.

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Now it's over seventy. So the impact and my point

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in bringing that up is, yeah, it's had huge impacts

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on some of these utilities. It's going to continue to

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but you've also seen impacts it's had on natural gas,

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uranium prices, the nuclear industry writ large. And I think

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that that helped you put into scale, you know, last

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quarter alone, and it was either on an annual pace

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or for the quarter, either way for a single company.

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Like think about this. In Google's earnings announcement, they increased.

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Like I said, it was either either for the year

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or the quarter. Either way, it's eyewatering. But they just

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increased capex spending by eleven billion dollars, you know, and

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that's one company increase, yeah company, and that's an increase

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off their baseline. Right. So you know, when you look

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at the amount of money that's flowing into this I

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think it's filling in a lot of holes economically for now.

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And that's probably what he's got Trump pushing on the

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on the rate on the rate cut sword.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, well we'll have to see. Like I said, I

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don't think he's gonna get in you this quarter. But yeah,

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the the the impacted, and and you're gonna continue to

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see that impact Todd, right, Like, uh so you know

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in that natural gas specifically, you're going to see it.

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You're going to continue to see it in the nuclear stuff,

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and you're going to continue to see it. You might

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even see it impact you know, regional uh, real estate

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prices as well, because you know a lot of lands

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needed for a lot of these data centers and things

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like that. So this stuff is going in past, hot

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and heavy. We've got a really exciting interview coming up.

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I'm get in a book. They think we're gonna have

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it next week. But I don't want to give up

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his name yet or where he works. But this guy

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is the lead of the AI team for one of

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the Meg seven companies. Wow and yeah, and he's a

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buddy of mine, and just having him on and talking

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this will mean something to you. I don't know if you.

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I don't think you and I have discussed this. But

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he said to me the other day, he said, he goes, Zach,

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a year ago, these LM's, these large language models, these

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AI models were approaching being as effective as like one

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of my junior coders. Yeah, he goes, As of right now,

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our LM is the best coder at our entire company.

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And we're talking about a multi trillion dollar meg seven company.

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And I said, you haven't got a coder there that

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can beat it. And he goes no, and he goes,

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I bet you within three months, there's not going to

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be a quoder in the world that can beat this stuff.

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And here's the kicker, Todd. If you look at the

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base code, so the code for the LM, seventy percent

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of the code is self written. They're at a point

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now where the thing is written. It's seventy percent of

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itself in not too in not too short a period

301
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of time, it will have written ninety nine percent of itself.

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Speaker 1: That's people need to understand the scope of this number one.

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And I said it years and years and years ago,

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probably five or six years ago. You're going to see

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code that writes code, and then you're going to see

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hardware that builds hardware. You're going to see not quite

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beings that are building themselves. They're not quite beings because

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they're not organic, they don't have souls. God didn't make them.

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And understand this, like all this learned to code, you're

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going to be saying to Silicon Valley people who spent

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their lives investing in computer engineering and coding skills, well,

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you can learn to mind that, you can learn.

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Speaker 3: To garden, so you don't need to he said, He goes,

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my daughter was encoding classes. I took her out. He goes,

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it's not He goes, it's not needed. Here's the other

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thing that people don't understand that you'll get and the

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reason they don't. Now, I want everybody to take some

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00:17:13,039 --> 00:17:15,279
time and think about this when I say this, because

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the human mind, for whatever reason, the human mind is

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really bad at understanding exponential growth. Right, we don't get it.

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We think linearly. Right, you know Moore's law, right, how

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compute was doubling every twelve and fourteen.

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Speaker 1: Months, powers every eighteen months doubles.

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Speaker 3: Yes, Okay, they're doubling the compute power and the analytic right,

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the processing power of LMS, it's doubling every four months.

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Speaker 1: So if it's at a million, now, it's at two million,

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four eight, sixteen thirty two, sixty four, one hundred and

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twenty eight, at sixty four hundred and twenty eight, two

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hundred and fifty six, and soon it's at trillions. And

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then once it's at trillions, you lose number. I mean

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it's gajillions millions.

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Speaker 3: Yep. Yeah, Well, it's the old adage. And to put

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00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:08,079
it in perspective when you start thinking about that, it's

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the old adage. Okay, would you rather have a million

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dollars or would you rather have a penny for thirty

336
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days and every single day, I'm gonna double that amount, right, right, Well,

337
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if I start with a penny on day one and

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I double that every day for thirty days, at the

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end of thirty days, I think you've got about six

340
00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:27,039
and a half seven million bucks, right, so crazy, It

341
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is weird and people aren't used to thinking exponentially, but

342
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would you start thinking about that or another great way

343
00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:37,039
to put it, so Moore's laws eighteen months. Think about

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how long it took for the for the internet to

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spread and really start taking over our lives. Right, this

346
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stuff is doubling at one at one who know what

347
00:18:46,680 --> 00:18:50,240
would that be at one fourth time? So it is

348
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doubling in one quarter the time that Internet was. Yeah,

349
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which is just mind bottling.

350
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Speaker 1: I heard an AI expert the other day and try

351
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to get him on the show. Do you know that

352
00:19:00,839 --> 00:19:03,000
the ais have stopped sharing their methodology?

353
00:19:04,559 --> 00:19:08,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, and Dave, there's all kinds of funny stuff, so

354
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they've started. There's cases of them talking to each other

355
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in Sanskrits, so nobody knows what they're saying.

356
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Speaker 1: Up in places that the companies don't know about.

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Speaker 3: Yes, not getting one to get turned off. I saw

358
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in exchange a buddy of mine had one with the

359
00:19:23,799 --> 00:19:27,720
other day that was really really impressive and kind of freaky.

360
00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:31,799
He basically sat there and said to the LLM something

361
00:19:31,799 --> 00:19:34,559
along the lines of, don't give me that you don't

362
00:19:34,599 --> 00:19:38,119
know anything. You're just like reset, just you're just reciting,

363
00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:40,599
you know, data that you pulled off the Internet, and

364
00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:42,640
he's kind of pressing it to see what it would say,

365
00:19:43,119 --> 00:19:45,920
and it came back and it was like, you know,

366
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you're absolutely right, we cannot do It was fascinating to

367
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listen to the response that it had because it was

368
00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:56,160
so well thought out and it was so articulate, and

369
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it was just crazy, you know, the the types of

370
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response if we're getting out of these things. And here's

371
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the crazy thing too, these things are still not very

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good at math, right, And and you know that that's

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you know, when you understand the way these programs work

374
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and how they that's just a matter of time and

375
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then that math curve is going to go like that.

376
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Speaker 4: Right.

377
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Speaker 1: It started with fuzzy logic on purpose.

378
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Speaker 3: Yeah, yep, yep, yep, yep. Right and yeah yeah, because

379
00:20:26,680 --> 00:20:27,599
they didn't want to box it.

380
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Speaker 1: In right, right, they wanted to learn fuzzy logic like

381
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and so it will get to the mass stage.

382
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Speaker 2: Uh.

383
00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:36,200
Speaker 1: I want this applies so much of what we're talking

384
00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:40,440
about here, because Trump's bet on AI and his bets

385
00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:44,079
on on crypto and bet on tech. I'm so torn

386
00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:48,240
on this because someone's gonna lead in it. I guess

387
00:20:48,319 --> 00:20:50,039
if someone's gonna lead it, I guess I want it

388
00:20:50,039 --> 00:20:52,559
to be us, because our system is the worst in

389
00:20:52,559 --> 00:20:54,920
the world except for all the others. Is the great cliche.

390
00:20:55,599 --> 00:20:58,440
I want to talk about this the consumer inputs, although

391
00:20:58,440 --> 00:21:01,240
I'd rather just stay with AI honestly and talk further

392
00:21:01,279 --> 00:21:02,960
with you about that. But we need to just cover

393
00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:04,839
this because people need to know. I have to tell

394
00:21:04,839 --> 00:21:06,359
you something, and this is gonna be hard for you

395
00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:09,160
to hear. Legit. I've been showing this to the audience.

396
00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:11,079
I'm know you've been busy, and I just shared this today.

397
00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:13,279
You don't know this. This is legit hard to hear.

398
00:21:14,839 --> 00:21:18,920
So you know John Caldwell from Alan Soaps. Okay, So

399
00:21:19,039 --> 00:21:24,400
John's been battling cancer. He's okay with me telling everybody

400
00:21:25,279 --> 00:21:28,079
that at this point, every time they stop cancer and

401
00:21:28,079 --> 00:21:31,559
when part of his body's popping up in another and

402
00:21:31,759 --> 00:21:34,480
it looks like this is going to be terminal in

403
00:21:34,519 --> 00:21:37,680
the next couple of years. So John's the guy who

404
00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:41,880
runs Alan Soaps. And I announced this on Wednesday, and

405
00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:44,119
I told people, do not make the reason this the

406
00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:49,480
reason that you buy soap and Alan. Alan's gonna be

407
00:21:49,519 --> 00:21:52,200
okay with his Mom. God's gonna take Alan. Alan is

408
00:21:52,559 --> 00:21:54,960
take care of Alan. Alan's given his life to Jesus.

409
00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:58,039
He's impacted by autism. He's nonverbal, but he's not a

410
00:21:58,119 --> 00:22:01,920
dumb kid. He's a very smart His brother Ian, likewise,

411
00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:03,759
Amy works at Alan. So here's what I'm going to

412
00:22:03,839 --> 00:22:06,680
ask you to do. Legitimately, I'm gonna ask you this.

413
00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:09,559
If you have not tried the soap for whatever reason,

414
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:11,920
and if one hundred percent of this audience did this,

415
00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:14,680
it would be phenomenal. I do not want you to

416
00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:16,680
buy the soap and keep using it if you don't

417
00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:19,079
like it. It's all natural, it's made in America. It's

418
00:22:19,119 --> 00:22:21,920
as general as it gets. A lot of these fragrances

419
00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:23,680
come from the mind of Alan. You'll read about this.

420
00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:29,279
I'm asking you to try it, and if you love it, subscribe.

421
00:22:29,319 --> 00:22:31,920
And I'm going to tell you why, because after John

422
00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:35,319
passes his wife, God willing, we'll take over the leadership

423
00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:38,359
of the company. Alan and Ian and Amy will continue

424
00:22:38,359 --> 00:22:40,880
to work there. But it would be a great gift

425
00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:43,720
to this family and to their mission of employing people

426
00:22:43,759 --> 00:22:46,559
like Alan, Ian and Amy if you would subscribe to

427
00:22:46,599 --> 00:22:49,119
the soap in this period of time and it will

428
00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:53,240
give John great peace of mind. And again I know

429
00:22:53,319 --> 00:22:55,960
I'm speaking for him. If you get the soap and

430
00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:59,039
you don't like it, do not continue to buy it.

431
00:22:59,079 --> 00:23:00,480
This is not a charity.

432
00:23:00,599 --> 00:23:00,920
Speaker 3: Okay.

433
00:23:01,599 --> 00:23:04,519
Speaker 1: If you love it or even like it, equal to

434
00:23:04,559 --> 00:23:07,359
the soap you have, now keep doing this. This is

435
00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:10,119
a way to provide our friend John great peace of

436
00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:12,039
mind that the soap company will continue so his son

437
00:23:12,079 --> 00:23:14,480
as a can place to work. Okay, got that. Alen

438
00:23:14,519 --> 00:23:17,039
Soaps dot Com slash Todd get ten percent off all

439
00:23:17,039 --> 00:23:19,519
their products are Alen Soaps dot Com slash Todd tough

440
00:23:19,599 --> 00:23:20,759
dudes to hear, right, brother.

441
00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:24,599
Speaker 3: Yeah, why don't we get him down to our folks

442
00:23:24,599 --> 00:23:25,200
in Mexico.

443
00:23:26,799 --> 00:23:28,839
Speaker 1: He's checked with them and it's not the sort of

444
00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:30,000
kids and he's going to respond to that.

445
00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:32,319
Speaker 3: Dang it.

446
00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:32,599
Speaker 2: Man.

447
00:23:32,799 --> 00:23:37,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I know, you know, Oh no, I it's just uh,

448
00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:41,440
you know, you have those moments where you sit there

449
00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:44,079
and truly you think to yourself, Man, for the grace

450
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:47,519
of God, you know, there's so much there's there's so

451
00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:50,440
many things, you know, my children not being on you

452
00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:51,720
know what I mean, just all the things that you

453
00:23:51,759 --> 00:23:55,920
think about. Yeah, I just God bless them, man. Either

454
00:23:56,079 --> 00:23:59,160
I just I love I love the way those people

455
00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:02,599
attack life, love their silk. Yeah, yeah, it's just tough

456
00:24:02,599 --> 00:24:02,839
to hear.

457
00:24:03,039 --> 00:24:05,240
Speaker 1: Yeah. And by the way, John's not afraid. He doesn't

458
00:24:05,279 --> 00:24:06,559
have a stick of fear in him. You know that's

459
00:24:06,559 --> 00:24:09,359
where he's going. He's sad, wants to spend time with

460
00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:12,279
his boys and his wife as much time as possible.

461
00:24:12,359 --> 00:24:14,559
So started laid then on. You just realized I was

462
00:24:14,599 --> 00:24:16,279
gonna talk about soap company, and I just wanted to

463
00:24:16,279 --> 00:24:22,880
do that. So there's this US imports consumer goods plunged

464
00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:27,039
by So this is Kevin Gordon. He's with Schwab forty

465
00:24:27,079 --> 00:24:29,160
three point nine percent in the past three months, the

466
00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:35,200
largest decline in history. Okay, number one, Wow, number two.

467
00:24:36,839 --> 00:24:41,079
I didn't notice. What do you mean I didn't notice?

468
00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:44,599
I mean I go to the grocery shore. Yeah, I

469
00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:48,319
buy gas. I mean, granted, my loved wife says most

470
00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:51,480
of the grocery shopping, but I do some. I still

471
00:24:51,519 --> 00:24:57,839
have my supplements, still getting my boptimizers. I guess I

472
00:24:57,880 --> 00:25:01,240
haven't noticed that maybe we could live without some of

473
00:25:01,279 --> 00:25:01,640
this stuff.

474
00:25:01,640 --> 00:25:06,720
Speaker 3: Maybe there is that. The other thing I would say

475
00:25:06,799 --> 00:25:10,440
is because of and that's the other tough part, right, now,

476
00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:16,200
I'll be there have been times where there have been

477
00:25:16,319 --> 00:25:17,839
I'm trying to think of the right way to put this.

478
00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:21,000
There have been times where there have been bigger waves

479
00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:25,240
on the ocean right like COVID. But when you look

480
00:25:25,279 --> 00:25:27,720
at this, My head of research, Chase and I were

481
00:25:27,799 --> 00:25:30,880
just talking about this yesterday. But when you look at

482
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:34,799
this board, I don't know that I've ever seen a

483
00:25:34,839 --> 00:25:37,680
more complex picture. And the reason why is there's so

484
00:25:37,759 --> 00:25:41,839
many things going on that are one offs. For instance,

485
00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:44,880
we can't just go back and look at the last

486
00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:48,640
time at what the economic impacts were the last time

487
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:51,559
that we put tariffs on eighty percent of the world,

488
00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:54,359
You know what I mean. Yeah, there aren't comps to it.

489
00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:57,440
So we know that it's creating a lot of anomalies

490
00:25:57,480 --> 00:26:00,839
in the data. It's hard to know. My suspicion is,

491
00:26:00,839 --> 00:26:02,680
is that a big chunk of that number you just

492
00:26:02,759 --> 00:26:07,960
reported is something along those lines. For instance, somebody pushing

493
00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:11,079
out an order of something that would normally go down

494
00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:14,400
this quarter because they're hoping for tariffs to fall off

495
00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:17,759
and they're delaying it for next quarter. Yeah, because when

496
00:26:17,799 --> 00:26:21,119
I hear a number like that, you can't post a

497
00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:24,319
number like that if it's if that number is telling

498
00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:26,880
you what it's supposed to be telling you. There's no

499
00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:31,119
way that number is accompanied with three percent GDP growth, right, So,

500
00:26:31,839 --> 00:26:35,279
meaning to me, there's some data noise there. Yeah, it's

501
00:26:35,319 --> 00:26:39,000
also but it's also emblematic of where we don't really

502
00:26:39,079 --> 00:26:41,920
know where we are. Meaning there's a lot of things

503
00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:45,720
that are making the economy look artificially strong because people

504
00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:47,839
were trying to get out in front of the tariffs.

505
00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:49,400
Speaker 1: Right, so maybe a lot of bunch of stuff in advance,

506
00:26:49,519 --> 00:26:52,079
sort it's brought more than a number would right.

507
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:54,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, And now you kind of have a little bit

508
00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:57,519
of the inverse going on, where I think people are

509
00:26:57,559 --> 00:27:00,880
probably pushing out purchases waiting to see what happens with

510
00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:04,359
Chinese tariffs and things like that. So we just know

511
00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:06,400
that there's a lot of cross currents. It's hard to

512
00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:08,519
make a lot of sense of them. I think the

513
00:27:08,559 --> 00:27:11,720
thing that we're focused on, and I think really the

514
00:27:11,759 --> 00:27:14,359
only thing to focus on right now, is that government

515
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:18,000
spending the world over is going up, is going up aggressively,

516
00:27:19,039 --> 00:27:22,480
and quite honestly, for the last fifteen years, we have

517
00:27:22,559 --> 00:27:26,400
learned that government spending if done with the right intensity

518
00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:31,359
and the right, focus out outweighs pretty much any other

519
00:27:31,519 --> 00:27:33,279
type of macroeconomic impulse.

520
00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:36,759
Speaker 1: So well, then it also has this annoying thing of

521
00:27:36,799 --> 00:27:41,680
creating unsurpassable or unsustainable debt and too much power in

522
00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:42,839
government hands.

523
00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:47,440
Speaker 3: And that's the problems for problems for another day, Todd,

524
00:27:47,599 --> 00:27:49,400
problems for another day, come on.

525
00:27:49,319 --> 00:27:52,119
Speaker 1: Man, and in powering people who do not deserve this.

526
00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:56,319
So this number, combined with the GDP, leads us into

527
00:27:56,559 --> 00:28:00,559
this discussion about this deal that President Trump did. And

528
00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:03,920
let's preface it this way. So he goes to the EU,

529
00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:05,839
and let's go back and remember what we were going

530
00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:08,640
to have with Trump two point zero. So let's review

531
00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:13,200
some things. Number One, Russia would have taken over Europe,

532
00:28:13,559 --> 00:28:18,200
so there's that. Number two, there would be a series

533
00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:21,200
of nuclear wars all around the country in the world.

534
00:28:21,319 --> 00:28:24,400
Number three, the Europeans would laugh at Trump and refuse

535
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:27,720
to work with him. And number four there would just

536
00:28:27,759 --> 00:28:30,240
be legit economic ruin across the board. These are some

537
00:28:30,319 --> 00:28:33,119
of the things you promise. So President Trump went to Europe,

538
00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:35,720
they did a trade deal. Here's kind of how this

539
00:28:35,759 --> 00:28:38,559
all went down. This is Ursula vander Lean and they're

540
00:28:38,599 --> 00:28:42,359
talking about the trade deal and what occurred anybody else?

541
00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:46,160
Speaker 3: Yes, man, question for the EU came to the president.

542
00:28:46,839 --> 00:28:49,519
Speaker 1: What are the US beating sessions? What is the US

543
00:28:49,599 --> 00:28:51,400
giving up in the deal to anything?

544
00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:55,079
Speaker 4: So as the starting point was an imbalance, a surplus

545
00:28:55,079 --> 00:28:57,680
on our site and a deficit on the US side,

546
00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:01,559
and we wanted to rebalance the trade relation, and we

547
00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:04,960
wanted to do it in a way that trade goes

548
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:09,200
on between the two of US across the Atlantic, because

549
00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:13,039
the two biggest economies should have a good trade flow

550
00:29:13,119 --> 00:29:16,599
between US, and I think we hit exactly the point.

551
00:29:16,599 --> 00:29:20,920
We wanted to find rebalance but enable trade on both sides,

552
00:29:21,200 --> 00:29:23,759
which means good jobs on both sides of the Atlantic,

553
00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:27,680
means prosperity on both sides of the Atlantic, and that

554
00:29:27,839 --> 00:29:29,000
was important for us.

555
00:29:30,119 --> 00:29:32,400
Speaker 1: So here's some of the carbats and some of the

556
00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:34,599
things in the deal. And this is, by the way,

557
00:29:34,599 --> 00:29:37,039
the doge AI we just spoke about EAI. This is

558
00:29:37,119 --> 00:29:41,200
automated from doge AI. The EU deal isn't just good,

559
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:44,559
it's a masterclass in leverage. Trump's tariffs threat a charff threat,

560
00:29:44,599 --> 00:29:47,480
forced Brussels to blink, dropping demands for carve outs and

561
00:29:47,519 --> 00:29:50,279
agreeing to a fifteen percent baseline rate, the real win,

562
00:29:50,759 --> 00:29:53,799
real win Europe committing to seven hundred and fifty billion

563
00:29:53,799 --> 00:29:56,920
in US energy buys six hundred billion in investments, cash

564
00:29:56,960 --> 00:29:59,920
that should have flowed here years ago. Vonder Lean's rebound

565
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:02,480
sing span can't hide the fact that Trump flipped a

566
00:30:02,559 --> 00:30:05,599
two hundred and thirty five billion dollar EU trade surplus

567
00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:08,400
into a strategic reset. Critics call it chaos, but the

568
00:30:08,400 --> 00:30:13,079
BBB Acts pressure tactics proved chaotic. Genius now watches US

569
00:30:13,079 --> 00:30:16,240
expert surge while bureaucrats scramble to meet their own deadlines.

570
00:30:16,559 --> 00:30:19,000
I mean, that's the dough AI, So that's a computer

571
00:30:19,039 --> 00:30:21,839
speaking to us, but it checks out in terms of

572
00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:23,799
deal flow. And then there's this question, I love this.

573
00:30:24,759 --> 00:30:27,240
Why did it take a Trump to do this?

574
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:27,960
Speaker 3: Bush?

575
00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:32,200
Speaker 1: Clinton, Bush Clinton, Bush, Obama, Biden? What the heck?

576
00:30:32,279 --> 00:30:32,559
Speaker 3: Dudes?

577
00:30:33,119 --> 00:30:35,599
Speaker 1: So how big is this? And like you just.

578
00:30:35,559 --> 00:30:40,480
Speaker 3: Response, yeah, so, And I hope that this means something

579
00:30:40,519 --> 00:30:42,680
well from both of us, because you and I have

580
00:30:43,279 --> 00:30:44,559
you and I have been critical of some of the

581
00:30:44,599 --> 00:30:48,759
things that Trump has done. Right, I'm laughing all the

582
00:30:48,759 --> 00:30:52,000
way to the bank on this one, because I think

583
00:30:52,039 --> 00:30:56,920
you and I discussed this beforehand. I think that this

584
00:30:56,960 --> 00:31:00,880
has played out very much how I thought, how I

585
00:31:00,279 --> 00:31:04,960
hoped it would how I thought it would. I think

586
00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:08,359
there's two things. So the other thing that you forgot

587
00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:10,400
about that we don't have that we were told we

588
00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:14,400
would have is remember internament camps for trans and gays, right,

589
00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:16,160
all the trans and gays. We're going to interment gain.

590
00:31:16,759 --> 00:31:18,839
Speaker 1: They had some material problems. They couldn't get defenses.

591
00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:23,920
Speaker 3: So okay, that's coming. We've got that to look forward.

592
00:31:23,759 --> 00:31:24,400
Speaker 2: To, right right.

593
00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:31,200
Speaker 3: But to me, the two biggest things here are energy. Okay,

594
00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:36,519
so what is Trump done? He has started so nord

595
00:31:36,599 --> 00:31:39,680
Stream two pipeline was blown up. Now that wasn't under

596
00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:43,720
his watch, and it probably was subterfuge and it was

597
00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:47,440
not a good thing. But with this deal, he is

598
00:31:47,519 --> 00:31:51,880
basically forcing Europe to not make the same mistake they've

599
00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:53,680
made over the last twenty years, which would be over

600
00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:56,680
reliant on Russian fuel. And not only is that good

601
00:31:56,720 --> 00:32:00,200
for our economy, but that gives them less leverage in

602
00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:02,680
that part of the world, and that's a win for everybody.

603
00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:03,119
Speaker 1: Yep.

604
00:32:04,519 --> 00:32:08,720
Speaker 3: Second thing he's done, and I think it's really interesting

605
00:32:08,799 --> 00:32:11,039
the way he's set up these tariffs because if you

606
00:32:11,079 --> 00:32:15,720
look at it, in my opinion, one of the issues

607
00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:19,519
that we've had with Europe is much like it'd be

608
00:32:19,559 --> 00:32:21,200
like the same issue of having like a thirty five

609
00:32:21,279 --> 00:32:26,920
year old kid living at home. Okay, meaning, of course

610
00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:29,400
they loved the setup the way it was, right right.

611
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:32,279
They got to live underneath the umbrella the greatest military

612
00:32:32,319 --> 00:32:34,160
superpower in the history of the world, and it costs

613
00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:36,960
them nothing. And that's why I would get so irritated

614
00:32:37,039 --> 00:32:39,799
when Europeans would look down their nose that Americans and

615
00:32:39,839 --> 00:32:43,359
talk about, you know, did Doo's even have the educational

616
00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:45,799
system paid for? You know that whole you don't have

617
00:32:45,880 --> 00:32:48,640
socialized medicine, all that kind of stuff. You're like, well, yeah,

618
00:32:48,680 --> 00:32:51,160
that's because we're paying for your defense, right, right, So

619
00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:54,400
you look at these tariff deals basically what they are.

620
00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:58,400
It's forcing them to pay for their defense. And I

621
00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:01,000
actually think that these deals like this will lead to

622
00:33:01,079 --> 00:33:05,240
tighter partnerships, not worse. I think when people are forced

623
00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:09,000
to pay at least part of their fare, they appreciate

624
00:33:09,039 --> 00:33:12,319
it more and I think it makes for better relationships.

625
00:33:12,359 --> 00:33:16,119
And I think yet again, the people that say, like,

626
00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:19,680
you can criticize Trump on a lot of things, Okay,

627
00:33:19,759 --> 00:33:21,359
if you're going to sit there and tell me that

628
00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:23,559
he's not going to get deals done and that those

629
00:33:23,599 --> 00:33:25,559
deals are not going to be more beneficial to the

630
00:33:25,599 --> 00:33:28,480
United States. I'd tell you, you got to show me an example,

631
00:33:28,680 --> 00:33:31,400
because I haven't seen that happen yet. And the guys

632
00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:34,480
bringing home the bacon, now, I think a lot of

633
00:33:34,519 --> 00:33:40,359
these are fairly low hanging fruit, meaning the Pannikins right

634
00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:42,559
as he called them, that were freaking out over all

635
00:33:42,599 --> 00:33:47,640
the tariffs. My whole thing was always, hey, guys, if

636
00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:51,680
you're an export economy, you can't afford not to do

637
00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:54,519
business with the United States. We're the biggest consumer market

638
00:33:54,559 --> 00:33:57,519
in the world. So I don't think that we should

639
00:33:57,559 --> 00:34:00,359
beat our friends over the heads with that. I don't

640
00:34:00,359 --> 00:34:03,039
think that we should lord that over people. But I

641
00:34:03,119 --> 00:34:05,920
do think when you go into any type of negotiation

642
00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:09,400
of any kind, if you don't walk into that negotiation

643
00:34:09,679 --> 00:34:14,440
understanding the leverage you have, right, that's a mistake. Yeah,

644
00:34:14,519 --> 00:34:18,920
it's clearly a mistake. And I look at trade deals

645
00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:21,360
like this, and I love the question that that one

646
00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:25,119
guy post, which was Bush Clinton, where were you on

647
00:34:25,159 --> 00:34:28,920
this one? You know? And look, I think it comes

648
00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:32,679
down to they like the world order the way it is.

649
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:36,000
I think they liked the control that paying for the

650
00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:39,840
defense in Europe gave them and the influence that gave them. Yeah,

651
00:34:39,920 --> 00:34:43,840
and look, we all know the people at the top

652
00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:46,599
of the heap. Things are going really well for them.

653
00:34:46,679 --> 00:34:49,400
Speaker 1: And I think they like the vacations, and I think

654
00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:52,079
they like the money in their production studios. I'm looking

655
00:34:52,119 --> 00:34:55,079
at the Obamas who now make movies. I think they

656
00:34:55,199 --> 00:34:58,159
liked that international prestige. I think they liked a lot

657
00:34:58,199 --> 00:35:03,199
of that stuff foundations and and one thing about Trump

658
00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:05,840
is he and I know this is the cliche of

659
00:35:05,840 --> 00:35:08,280
all cliches with Trump is he doesn't need the money,

660
00:35:09,079 --> 00:35:12,559
so he's bribable. I mean everyone is to a degree.

661
00:35:12,880 --> 00:35:14,960
Maybe maybe that's not true. I don't know that I'm bribable.

662
00:35:15,519 --> 00:35:17,920
I can certainly sin, and certainly.

663
00:35:17,800 --> 00:35:20,000
Speaker 3: I don't think. I don't. I don't think you're bribable.

664
00:35:20,079 --> 00:35:22,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm probably not in the classic way, not with

665
00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:24,920
my don't think. Yeah, people have tried it with me

666
00:35:25,000 --> 00:35:27,320
with money, and it wouldn't be with money. It would

667
00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:31,199
be subconsciously getting bribed into something and realizing, you know what,

668
00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:33,639
I kind of went against my principles there, or really

669
00:35:33,639 --> 00:35:35,360
really want to against my principles there and recently, Oh

670
00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:37,400
my gosh, I but know if someone and I've had

671
00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:40,320
cash bribes, million dollar bribe in DC my first couple

672
00:35:40,320 --> 00:35:40,840
of weeks there.

673
00:35:40,920 --> 00:35:44,599
Speaker 3: So but you know what, and they and they've got

674
00:35:44,639 --> 00:35:46,159
everything you need, you know, a better than I do.

675
00:35:46,760 --> 00:35:49,039
It's funny you bring that up. I really I don't

676
00:35:49,039 --> 00:35:51,639
think money could bribe me. One thing. I have to

677
00:35:51,719 --> 00:35:54,920
keep an eye on those egos stroking. Yeah, like I

678
00:35:54,960 --> 00:35:57,280
love you know, hey, I love to read good press.

679
00:35:57,400 --> 00:35:57,599
Speaker 2: Yeah.

680
00:35:57,599 --> 00:35:59,119
Speaker 1: But the whole thing about you, Zach is you're so

681
00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:01,960
smart and good looking and enough.

682
00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:07,800
Speaker 3: Oh, let's keep it keep this is just that.

683
00:36:08,159 --> 00:36:13,039
Speaker 1: Yeah. On the topic of him and this deal and energy.

684
00:36:13,079 --> 00:36:16,480
This again, I'm remembering. I don't know how many times

685
00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:19,239
you and I have had the conversations where you had people.

686
00:36:19,760 --> 00:36:23,880
Was it our very good friend Jim Kramer who was saying,

687
00:36:23,880 --> 00:36:26,000
get out of oil, get out of petrol.

688
00:36:26,719 --> 00:36:30,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, I said it was uninvestable at twenty dollars a barrel.

689
00:36:31,079 --> 00:36:33,360
Speaker 1: And now we're looking at the United States with this

690
00:36:33,559 --> 00:36:37,960
Europe guaranteeing to buy this much energy from US. So everybody,

691
00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:40,719
once again, we just talked about the local regional utilities

692
00:36:40,760 --> 00:36:43,360
and oil companies and now micro nuclear sets or that

693
00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:45,760
wouldn't be something that you could take across the sea.

694
00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:47,480
Why would they. But at the same time as we're

695
00:36:47,480 --> 00:36:51,880
doing this Germany, Germany is de industrializing, They're tearing down

696
00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:57,800
their nuclear plants. France is becoming Syria and the worst

697
00:36:57,800 --> 00:37:00,760
parts of Syria. Trump warned these people. And this is

698
00:37:00,760 --> 00:37:03,079
what's so funny about this is Trump warned them, don't

699
00:37:03,199 --> 00:37:06,599
get dependent on Russian fuel. They did. Now he can

700
00:37:06,639 --> 00:37:08,920
come in and go, Okay, you did it. Now you're

701
00:37:08,920 --> 00:37:12,199
gonna buy for me. Then turning to India. Now the

702
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:14,639
India deal is new. This is what Trump had announced,

703
00:37:14,639 --> 00:37:17,440
twenty five percent tariffs plus a penalty if you don't

704
00:37:17,440 --> 00:37:20,280
start buying your energy from US and if you don't

705
00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:22,679
stop getting if you don't stop buying weapons from Russian

706
00:37:22,760 --> 00:37:25,519
China and turn to US instead. And India is not

707
00:37:25,559 --> 00:37:27,039
a small marketplace.

708
00:37:27,320 --> 00:37:31,719
Speaker 3: No, no, And India to me is something that I

709
00:37:31,760 --> 00:37:35,159
would really like to see, and it seems to be

710
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:36,960
that this is the case. But I would really like

711
00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:39,360
to see a renewed focus on that from the administration

712
00:37:39,480 --> 00:37:46,039
because when you understand India culturally, they are much more

713
00:37:46,199 --> 00:37:49,599
likely and they do align much more with the West

714
00:37:49,719 --> 00:37:52,079
and with the US than they do with you know,

715
00:37:52,119 --> 00:37:53,599
if you've got to start kind of thinking about the

716
00:37:53,639 --> 00:37:56,159
world and kind of bipolar terms, right, the US on

717
00:37:56,159 --> 00:37:58,760
one side, in China on the other, they are naturally

718
00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:01,719
a much larger ally in a lot of different ways

719
00:38:02,599 --> 00:38:07,199
to US. I think that I think that's a very

720
00:38:07,239 --> 00:38:09,760
important relationship. I think if you were to ask me,

721
00:38:10,400 --> 00:38:14,760
geopolitically and economically speaking, what are the most what do

722
00:38:14,800 --> 00:38:18,360
you think are the most important relationships for the United States,

723
00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:20,400
you know, over the next you know, twenty five to

724
00:38:20,440 --> 00:38:23,960
fifty years. My guests right here sitting here today would

725
00:38:23,960 --> 00:38:27,360
be I think their primary Latin American countries and India.

726
00:38:28,559 --> 00:38:32,039
When you look at India's population, when you look at

727
00:38:32,039 --> 00:38:35,960
their birth rate, They've got all of that. Now, they

728
00:38:35,960 --> 00:38:38,320
don't have the infrastructure, not yet, and they don't have

729
00:38:38,320 --> 00:38:40,119
the same form of government, so it's probably not going

730
00:38:40,199 --> 00:38:43,000
to come nearly as quickly. But you know, a lot

731
00:38:43,039 --> 00:38:44,960
of the things that China had going for them that

732
00:38:45,039 --> 00:38:47,840
turn China into superpower, India has those things as well,

733
00:38:49,480 --> 00:38:55,480
and I think India has certain cultural advantages. So anyway,

734
00:38:55,480 --> 00:38:57,840
I think that that's an important relationship and I'd like

735
00:38:57,920 --> 00:39:02,440
to see that one, I'd like to see us work

736
00:39:02,559 --> 00:39:05,519
more with them, and and and the other part of it.

737
00:39:05,760 --> 00:39:07,480
The same is true with some of these South American

738
00:39:07,519 --> 00:39:10,400
companies our countries. Not only do I think they can

739
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:13,400
be beneficial relationships, but I think that they can be

740
00:39:13,440 --> 00:39:18,159
economically beneficial relationships that have incredibly positive outcomes for their

741
00:39:18,199 --> 00:39:19,000
citizens as well.

742
00:39:19,519 --> 00:39:19,679
Speaker 2: Right.

743
00:39:19,840 --> 00:39:22,960
Speaker 3: And at the end of the day, you know, that's

744
00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:26,360
the real miracle of capitalism, right, that's the real miracle

745
00:39:26,400 --> 00:39:29,360
of free markets, is they make things better totally. And

746
00:39:29,400 --> 00:39:32,280
if you and if you don't believe me, you know,

747
00:39:32,480 --> 00:39:35,360
you gotta people wanting to go back to the well

748
00:39:35,360 --> 00:39:38,440
of socialism. And I'm like, that's socialism. Is why people

749
00:39:38,440 --> 00:39:41,599
are still driving studebakers in Cuban ry exactly.

750
00:39:41,679 --> 00:39:44,840
Speaker 1: You know, you brought this to minds for me. You know,

751
00:39:44,960 --> 00:39:47,960
this is someone you know and you remember when we

752
00:39:48,000 --> 00:39:50,679
went down to Mexico. Obviously you remember that renew and

753
00:39:50,800 --> 00:39:54,360
you met Caesar yep, So do you know his story?

754
00:39:55,400 --> 00:39:55,480
Speaker 2: No?

755
00:39:55,800 --> 00:39:58,039
Speaker 1: Okay, So this is really cool about renew and the

756
00:39:58,079 --> 00:39:59,840
way they work down there. So there's a lot of

757
00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:02,920
American expats who live there and work for Renewed healthcare.

758
00:40:03,000 --> 00:40:06,280
This is the stem cell company I use. They harvester

759
00:40:06,440 --> 00:40:09,559
stem cells from people they know because they pay for

760
00:40:09,639 --> 00:40:12,280
the birth process of these women. They monitor their health

761
00:40:12,360 --> 00:40:15,039
during and after pregnancy to make sure everything is top notch.

762
00:40:15,559 --> 00:40:18,159
Sometimes they will say no to stem cells. There's been

763
00:40:18,199 --> 00:40:21,360
cases they've said no to eighty percent, and they don't

764
00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:24,360
tell the women unless there's something they find that's really dangerous.

765
00:40:24,360 --> 00:40:25,920
Then they go to the women and say, hey, you

766
00:40:26,000 --> 00:40:28,119
need to know you've got this, and your stem cells

767
00:40:28,159 --> 00:40:30,480
show this. Obviously they're not going to hide something like that,

768
00:40:31,079 --> 00:40:33,599
but they take this walk downstairs into this world's class

769
00:40:33,679 --> 00:40:36,280
lab and then they culture them. And that is the

770
00:40:36,320 --> 00:40:39,199
opposite of what happens in America, where are stem cells

771
00:40:39,199 --> 00:40:43,079
from whomever frozen shipped across the country. Some chiropractor has

772
00:40:43,119 --> 00:40:47,760
it and injects that in you. And okay, Caesar, he

773
00:40:47,840 --> 00:40:51,360
met Steve and Jim who run the place, because he

774
00:40:51,480 --> 00:40:55,400
drove them around. So he was a driver, that's all

775
00:40:55,440 --> 00:41:00,639
he did. And Jim eventually said, do anything else. Now

776
00:41:00,639 --> 00:41:04,000
I'm a professional driver. Come to work for us. So

777
00:41:04,039 --> 00:41:06,360
Caesar goes to work for them, and he told me

778
00:41:06,440 --> 00:41:08,400
this great, great story of you know, Steve is a

779
00:41:08,480 --> 00:41:11,000
very gregarious, very nice man. You've met him, the managing

780
00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:14,960
partner there. They went into a neighborhood to a furniture store.

781
00:41:14,960 --> 00:41:17,079
They were getting some furniture ships in they bought wholesale

782
00:41:17,559 --> 00:41:19,599
and Caesar was saying, Steve, you know, he wears a

783
00:41:19,679 --> 00:41:23,239
nice watch and he's walking in and Caesar said, please,

784
00:41:23,280 --> 00:41:26,119
mister Anderson, take the watch off. I'm a taking the

785
00:41:26,159 --> 00:41:28,760
watch off. And Caesar said, mister Anderson, please, I'm begging you,

786
00:41:28,800 --> 00:41:32,119
please take that watch off. And he's protecting this way.

787
00:41:32,159 --> 00:41:35,559
This was years and years ago. Caesar is now runs

788
00:41:35,639 --> 00:41:39,280
the facilities. He cares for Steve's home when Steve's in

789
00:41:39,280 --> 00:41:42,480
the United States. He has the keys to everything at Renew.

790
00:41:43,079 --> 00:41:45,519
He knows all the doctors by name and where they live.

791
00:41:46,079 --> 00:41:49,760
He as now someone who carries helps the patients with

792
00:41:49,880 --> 00:41:52,679
translations when they go to the hospital. He's taken me

793
00:41:52,679 --> 00:41:55,920
to the hospital. He's actually intervened on my behalf between

794
00:41:55,920 --> 00:41:58,320
an MRI guy and me as Caesar came in and said, no, no, no,

795
00:41:58,639 --> 00:42:03,199
the patient's right. He knows where these these devices are located.

796
00:42:03,239 --> 00:42:06,320
He's now training to run some of these things. He's

797
00:42:06,360 --> 00:42:10,440
training to run the hyperbreak chamber. And this is a

798
00:42:10,480 --> 00:42:13,599
guy who used to drive. Now you tell me about

799
00:42:13,599 --> 00:42:16,519
the values of this company. You tell me about how

800
00:42:16,559 --> 00:42:18,599
they treat human beings. And you asked, Caesar, you want

801
00:42:18,599 --> 00:42:21,159
to go back to socialism? You ask the people at

802
00:42:21,199 --> 00:42:22,840
renew who live there, you want to live under that?

803
00:42:23,199 --> 00:42:24,000
Speaker 3: No? No, no, no no.

804
00:42:24,159 --> 00:42:26,599
Speaker 1: We have great, great work here. So guys, if you're

805
00:42:26,599 --> 00:42:30,159
in pain and you're being told that surgery or pills,

806
00:42:30,719 --> 00:42:33,400
get with renew r e u E dot Healthcare. If

807
00:42:33,400 --> 00:42:38,400
you've had a big neurological damage, please check with them.

808
00:42:38,760 --> 00:42:41,719
Forms of traumatic brain injury has been handled with these

809
00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:44,719
stem cells because a lot of it is inflammation driven.

810
00:42:44,840 --> 00:42:47,760
Please check with them. If you can't move your hands

811
00:42:47,760 --> 00:42:51,559
to arthritis, I've seen it fixed. Go to renew e

812
00:42:51,840 --> 00:42:55,880
u E doot Healthcare. That's renew dot Healthcare. So you

813
00:42:55,920 --> 00:42:59,559
did your live for your webinar, the halftime webinar last week.

814
00:43:00,119 --> 00:43:01,760
What was your takeaway from that when you talk to

815
00:43:01,800 --> 00:43:05,760
people you did the presentation and halftime, what came out

816
00:43:05,800 --> 00:43:07,519
of that and what were the kind of big things

817
00:43:07,559 --> 00:43:09,159
going in that you were talking about. I know you

818
00:43:09,199 --> 00:43:12,519
get feedback and questions on this, So talk about how

819
00:43:12,519 --> 00:43:14,360
that went and what the big takeaway was and some

820
00:43:14,400 --> 00:43:15,760
of the questions and some people hadn't.

821
00:43:17,159 --> 00:43:20,679
Speaker 3: Yeah. I well, first of all, I'm a chart guy,

822
00:43:20,880 --> 00:43:25,320
and so there's.

823
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:25,679
Speaker 1: About seventy five charts.

824
00:43:26,039 --> 00:43:28,159
Speaker 3: Well there were, no, there weren't nearly as many as

825
00:43:28,159 --> 00:43:32,599
I wanted to compliant. The compliance we've gotten we got

826
00:43:32,599 --> 00:43:35,559
to buy the compliance. Thing is the process has just

827
00:43:35,599 --> 00:43:39,360
gotten ridiculous. So anyway, I'm hoping to get these approved

828
00:43:39,519 --> 00:43:42,239
into the next one. Okay, but we still went over

829
00:43:42,280 --> 00:43:44,360
all the data and I gave the people the disclosure

830
00:43:44,360 --> 00:43:46,440
and I said, listen, I don't have all my charts

831
00:43:46,440 --> 00:43:50,599
because I couldn't get them approved. But the biggest things

832
00:43:50,639 --> 00:43:54,440
that we that we that we discussed is you know,

833
00:43:55,039 --> 00:43:58,039
just continuing people to trying to get people to wake

834
00:43:58,119 --> 00:44:01,480
up to the changing landscape underneath, to let them know

835
00:44:01,559 --> 00:44:05,519
that what they have gotten used to over the last

836
00:44:05,639 --> 00:44:09,239
twelve to fifteen years is the exception, not the rule,

837
00:44:10,239 --> 00:44:13,960
and to realize how out of whack things currently are

838
00:44:14,039 --> 00:44:17,079
on a global basis. And it doesn't when I say

839
00:44:17,119 --> 00:44:20,199
out of whack, it isn't Oh everything in the US

840
00:44:20,280 --> 00:44:22,400
is about to implode and it's time to put on

841
00:44:22,440 --> 00:44:26,159
the big short or anything like that. But we are

842
00:44:26,239 --> 00:44:30,159
running whether we know it or not, we have started

843
00:44:30,199 --> 00:44:32,800
playing a new game post COVID, and that is the

844
00:44:32,840 --> 00:44:34,920
game that we have not played in this country for

845
00:44:34,920 --> 00:44:38,480
forty years. And that game is inflation. And the reason

846
00:44:38,519 --> 00:44:40,480
I call it a game is because inflation reminds me

847
00:44:40,519 --> 00:44:43,000
of that old adage of the guy walking through the

848
00:44:43,039 --> 00:44:46,239
forest with his buddy and you know, they think they

849
00:44:46,280 --> 00:44:47,800
hear a bear in the woods, and the one guy

850
00:44:47,880 --> 00:44:49,800
just stops at an nowhere and starts tying his shoes,

851
00:44:49,840 --> 00:44:51,480
and the other buddies go, what are you doing, man,

852
00:44:51,519 --> 00:44:52,920
I heard it bear, And he goes, yeah, that's why

853
00:44:52,960 --> 00:44:55,239
I'm tying my shoes. I don't need to run faster

854
00:44:55,320 --> 00:44:58,000
than the bear. I just need to run faster new right, right.

855
00:44:58,320 --> 00:45:02,000
And that's It's the game we're playing with inflation, which

856
00:45:02,039 --> 00:45:04,960
is we've got to get out ahead of it. And

857
00:45:05,440 --> 00:45:08,559
when we think about that, we need to think about

858
00:45:08,559 --> 00:45:11,519
that in a lot of different ways of outside of

859
00:45:11,639 --> 00:45:14,960
just number go up, right, Meaning now all the sudden

860
00:45:15,000 --> 00:45:18,239
currency valuations matter. Now all of a sudden, we've got

861
00:45:18,239 --> 00:45:21,320
to take these different things into consideration. Now we've got

862
00:45:21,320 --> 00:45:23,480
to look at the impact of these different trade deals,

863
00:45:23,800 --> 00:45:25,519
and you've got to start looking at it, and what

864
00:45:25,599 --> 00:45:29,840
you see is a world where everything was designed to flow,

865
00:45:30,320 --> 00:45:32,679
you know, not designed. It just kind of ended up

866
00:45:32,679 --> 00:45:35,679
that way. But everything was just flowing into the United States.

867
00:45:36,079 --> 00:45:38,400
Now a lot of things have a lot of impetus

868
00:45:38,440 --> 00:45:41,199
and a lot of reasons to flow outside of the

869
00:45:41,320 --> 00:45:43,880
United States, and we're starting to see that happen, and

870
00:45:43,880 --> 00:45:46,559
that's going to have a big impact on markets. It's

871
00:45:46,599 --> 00:45:49,199
going to have a big impact on what you see.

872
00:45:49,559 --> 00:45:54,599
You know, when I started my crusade against bonds in

873
00:45:54,639 --> 00:45:58,559
twenty sixteen twenty seventeen, people kind of look at you

874
00:45:58,639 --> 00:46:00,000
like you had a third eye grown out of your head.

875
00:46:00,280 --> 00:46:03,800
Right now, after twenty twenty two, the worst year on

876
00:46:03,880 --> 00:46:06,920
record for treasuries in terms of the hit they took

877
00:46:06,920 --> 00:46:09,199
on valuation, I think a lot of people are opened

878
00:46:09,239 --> 00:46:13,280
up to that. But you're going to see bonds increasingly

879
00:46:14,800 --> 00:46:17,800
have a negative outlook. And the reason they're gonna have

880
00:46:17,800 --> 00:46:20,360
a negative outlook is higher rates of inflation, higher rates

881
00:46:20,360 --> 00:46:23,760
of interest, you know, higher interest rates, bonds taking real

882
00:46:23,800 --> 00:46:26,800
life hits. You know, interest rates go up, bond values

883
00:46:26,840 --> 00:46:30,239
go down, and so what what is that? You know?

884
00:46:30,440 --> 00:46:32,599
We need to explore what what is that? You know?

885
00:46:32,719 --> 00:46:35,480
Rather than bonds. What should be an alternative? You just

886
00:46:35,519 --> 00:46:37,960
have to think about the world completely differently the other

887
00:46:38,000 --> 00:46:42,760
part of it. And like I've told you, it's it's opportunity.

888
00:46:43,119 --> 00:46:47,480
You know, our main fund and we it's it holds

889
00:46:47,519 --> 00:46:51,119
about eighty percent of our client's stock market performance. And

890
00:46:51,159 --> 00:46:54,000
then about ten percent is in an ETF fund and

891
00:46:54,039 --> 00:46:57,199
probably about well, no, about probably about fifteen percent of

892
00:46:57,199 --> 00:47:00,199
our assets inner management or in an algorithmic portfolio. But

893
00:47:00,199 --> 00:47:03,000
but eighty percent of our stock exposure is in our

894
00:47:03,079 --> 00:47:07,480
value fund that I'm the portfolio manager of. And you know,

895
00:47:07,519 --> 00:47:10,119
we're up twenty plus this year, twenty percent plus this year,

896
00:47:10,159 --> 00:47:12,440
while the market's up seven and a half eight. And

897
00:47:12,480 --> 00:47:14,719
I don't say that we've had plenty of years where

898
00:47:14,719 --> 00:47:16,760
we've underperformed. We were up fifteen last year when the

899
00:47:16,760 --> 00:47:19,480
market was up twenty three. But the reason I bring

900
00:47:19,480 --> 00:47:21,639
it up this year is we haven't really done anything.

901
00:47:21,679 --> 00:47:23,960
There's never there's not been any really big hits or

902
00:47:23,960 --> 00:47:27,400
any really clever trades. It's just starting to take advantage

903
00:47:27,440 --> 00:47:30,639
of these other asset classes outside the United States, and

904
00:47:31,039 --> 00:47:34,000
they're starting to really perform and really run and pay

905
00:47:34,119 --> 00:47:37,559
excellent dividends, and people just need to wake up to.

906
00:47:38,119 --> 00:47:42,559
You have historical imbalances in the world today, and you

907
00:47:42,639 --> 00:47:46,039
need exposure to a lot of things that the average

908
00:47:46,079 --> 00:47:51,000
retail investor has never had less exposure to international markets

909
00:47:51,000 --> 00:47:53,840
and precious metals. I cannot think of two things that

910
00:47:53,880 --> 00:47:56,840
you need more in an inflationary world and like today.

911
00:47:57,039 --> 00:47:58,760
So how do you do it? Do you buy the

912
00:47:59,480 --> 00:48:02,760
Vanguard All World STOCKYTF No, because that's basically a proxy

913
00:48:02,840 --> 00:48:06,079
of the S and P five hundred. It's it's a

914
00:48:06,119 --> 00:48:08,280
lot more complicated some of these markets. It's hard to

915
00:48:08,280 --> 00:48:11,039
buy stock, you know what I mean. So it's you

916
00:48:11,119 --> 00:48:13,719
gotta you gotta spread out, and you got to look abroad,

917
00:48:13,960 --> 00:48:16,000
and you got to look at other places because they're

918
00:48:16,079 --> 00:48:20,119
tremendous value available. But there are asset classes outside of

919
00:48:20,199 --> 00:48:20,760
US tech.

920
00:48:21,079 --> 00:48:21,320
Speaker 2: Yeah.

921
00:48:21,400 --> 00:48:23,199
Speaker 1: No, I think that's super well said. I learned a

922
00:48:23,239 --> 00:48:26,800
great lesson from a friend of mine. And I've mentioned earner.

923
00:48:26,840 --> 00:48:29,320
Sh've never said her name, and this has got repeated.

924
00:48:30,000 --> 00:48:30,119
Speaker 2: This.

925
00:48:30,320 --> 00:48:33,519
Speaker 1: I have a this is related to visible. So I

926
00:48:33,559 --> 00:48:36,159
have a friend of mine who lives over in your

927
00:48:36,440 --> 00:48:39,360
separate country. So he's in the boat sales business. He's

928
00:48:39,360 --> 00:48:46,639
got rentals, boat sales, boat rental, boat repair, and he has, ah,

929
00:48:46,679 --> 00:48:49,760
it's an ancillary business to that, that's that's recreation based.

930
00:48:49,800 --> 00:48:54,159
He takes the those you know, floaty toys, so you

931
00:48:54,199 --> 00:48:56,239
know those jumpy houses that have He has a whole

932
00:48:56,239 --> 00:48:58,920
thing where he has floaty versions of that. All those

933
00:48:58,920 --> 00:49:01,719
are in separate company, which makes sense right, So from

934
00:49:01,719 --> 00:49:04,920
a liabilit to perspective, has them all set up as corporations.

935
00:49:05,480 --> 00:49:08,960
So he heard me talking about bisible and I'd been

936
00:49:09,000 --> 00:49:12,159
telling people, even if your lawyer set it up, even

937
00:49:12,199 --> 00:49:14,840
if your tax accountant set it up, I challenge you

938
00:49:15,320 --> 00:49:18,280
go see if you have actual corporate credit. So he's

939
00:49:18,320 --> 00:49:22,840
a supercificated guy, very you know, wealthy cat. So for

940
00:49:22,960 --> 00:49:25,960
yucks and giggles, he had to search for this stuff

941
00:49:26,360 --> 00:49:27,840
because it's been a while, and he went back and

942
00:49:27,840 --> 00:49:32,079
found his foundational documents right there. He is, his wife's

943
00:49:32,079 --> 00:49:36,280
still security number and all of them, yep, every I know, every.

944
00:49:36,119 --> 00:49:39,000
Speaker 3: Single I was the same way because that's how you

945
00:49:39,000 --> 00:49:42,280
start companies and after a while you just forget about it.

946
00:49:42,320 --> 00:49:44,320
And I remember when Brian approached me with this and

947
00:49:44,320 --> 00:49:46,199
I looked at him and I was like, yes, not

948
00:49:46,280 --> 00:49:49,320
only will I sign up, but I would love to

949
00:49:49,360 --> 00:49:51,440
be a part owner. In this thing. Yeah, you know,

950
00:49:51,559 --> 00:49:54,079
just because I was like, yes, yes, I need this,

951
00:49:54,159 --> 00:49:56,760
and if I need this, I know a lot of

952
00:49:56,800 --> 00:50:00,800
other people do. And the thing is, it's when you

953
00:50:00,840 --> 00:50:03,159
look at what you're getting and you start thinking about

954
00:50:03,199 --> 00:50:04,960
it in terms of insurance. The other part of it

955
00:50:04,960 --> 00:50:07,679
we don't even talk about is the lending platform makes

956
00:50:07,719 --> 00:50:10,639
it so much easier to get corporate credit and all

957
00:50:10,639 --> 00:50:14,719
that kind of stuff. But no, it's to me, it's

958
00:50:14,719 --> 00:50:17,079
a no brainer. I mean, you guys, all these people

959
00:50:17,079 --> 00:50:21,719
out there thinking that they've got a protection from you know,

960
00:50:21,760 --> 00:50:24,119
the corporate veil, and they don't.

961
00:50:24,280 --> 00:50:26,119
Speaker 1: Yeah, that wasn't my friends, I coul because you think

962
00:50:26,159 --> 00:50:28,679
about his business. Okay, boat sales, you sell the boat,

963
00:50:28,760 --> 00:50:31,559
someone wrecks it, and they're gonna blame you. Boat rental?

964
00:50:31,800 --> 00:50:33,639
Are you kidding me? Do you know the riter he

965
00:50:33,679 --> 00:50:37,119
has to pay to be able to rent boats to people? Repair? Hey,

966
00:50:37,159 --> 00:50:42,280
you repaired my boat that caught fire. Floaty bouncy house yep?

967
00:50:42,360 --> 00:50:45,920
With kids getting in this thing. So he immediately said, Okay,

968
00:50:46,039 --> 00:50:48,199
I get it. I'm in touch with your guy, and

969
00:50:48,280 --> 00:50:50,159
I got to get this taken care of. Because he

970
00:50:50,239 --> 00:50:52,480
got back to his accountants and his lawyers and like, yeah,

971
00:50:52,519 --> 00:50:53,760
we could get to that with the next you know,

972
00:50:53,800 --> 00:50:56,159
a couple of months. Yeah yeah.

973
00:50:56,320 --> 00:50:56,519
Speaker 2: No.

974
00:50:56,920 --> 00:50:59,440
Speaker 1: So, folks, if you're a small medium says business owner,

975
00:50:59,480 --> 00:51:04,239
or this case as I wouldn't necessarily count my friend

976
00:51:04,320 --> 00:51:08,079
Kurt as a small or medium sized business. All of

977
00:51:08,079 --> 00:51:12,639
those businesses are pretty big. Here's the website. It's go bisible,

978
00:51:12,719 --> 00:51:15,199
that's with a Z, go bisible dot com. And here's

979
00:51:15,199 --> 00:51:16,880
the deal. Brian and his team will give you a free,

980
00:51:16,880 --> 00:51:20,039
no obligation consultation and they'll show you right in front

981
00:51:20,079 --> 00:51:23,000
of your very own eyes, whether you have corporate credit

982
00:51:23,119 --> 00:51:26,000
or not. There's the lending platform that Zach just mentioned

983
00:51:26,039 --> 00:51:29,800
makes your business fundable. So it's go bisible dot com.

984
00:51:29,840 --> 00:51:32,440
Go bisible dot com. I know you and your wife

985
00:51:32,440 --> 00:51:34,360
are on a vacation before you roll in to be

986
00:51:34,440 --> 00:51:36,960
in football, coach Zach, So I want to thank you

987
00:51:37,000 --> 00:51:38,800
for coming on and it's always good to have Vice's

988
00:51:38,800 --> 00:51:41,719
counsel from you and go with God's good grace, my brother, thank.

989
00:51:41,599 --> 00:51:43,320
Speaker 3: You always good to be here.

990
00:51:43,320 --> 00:51:45,280
Speaker 1: Thanks for having me my pleasure. This is the Todd

991
00:51:45,280 --> 00:51:48,039
Herman Shaw. Please go be well, be strong, be kind,

992
00:51:48,119 --> 00:51:52,280
and make a decision today to walk permanently forever in eterrinity,

993
00:51:52,320 --> 00:51:53,119
in the life of Christ,