Speaker 1: Hey twenty nine on a Tuesday. Regular listeners know it's
Speaker 1: even appointment listening time. You can also find the podcast
Speaker 1: at five Caresee dot com. Welcome back my retired lieutenant
Speaker 1: colonel friend Daniel Davis for the Daniel Davis Deep Dive.
Speaker 1: Good to talk to you today, sir, as always.
Speaker 2: Always a pleasure to be here. Look forward to this
Speaker 2: every week, and so do I.
Speaker 1: And interesting times with Trump negotiating with Putin over a
Speaker 1: resolution of this war, and it seems to me for
Speaker 1: some reason it's got the left all bent out of shape.
Speaker 1: And I don't know why, because in addition to negotiating
Speaker 1: with Putin on some sort of resolution, he's also trying
Speaker 1: to open up economic cooperation for the benefit of both countries.
Speaker 1: And what I observe here if you put down this
Speaker 1: whole idea that Vladimir Putin is the same thing as
Speaker 1: the Soviet Union. And I know he doesn't have clean hands,
Speaker 1: but we work and trade with a lot of countries
Speaker 1: who don't have clean hands, right, I mean, we're picking
Speaker 1: and choosing who is good and who's bad. And I
Speaker 1: point to the Chinese gum in the Chinese Communist Party.
Speaker 1: We trade with them all the time, and they are
Speaker 1: our outstanding number one enemy in the world. So putting
Speaker 1: that aside, though, if we could negotiate some sort of
Speaker 1: economic cooperation along with this and along with resolving the conflict,
Speaker 1: and I know you want to talk about that, but
Speaker 1: that would, I would argue, have the result of benefiting
Speaker 1: both countries economically. We can stop worrying about getting into
Speaker 1: a shooting war with the Solviet or with the Russians.
Speaker 1: Here I slipped with the Russians. You know, NATO wouldn't
Speaker 1: have to concern itself with being invaded by Vladimir Putin,
Speaker 1: and it might tear the getting cozier relationship between Russia
Speaker 1: and China away, so we got all focus on the
Speaker 1: real enemy, which is China. I don't know, I'm just
Speaker 1: I know, I'm kind of sort of on a stream
Speaker 1: of consciousness on this, but I don't see this discussion
Speaker 1: as a bad thing in any way. Your reactions, sir, well.
Speaker 3: My initial reaction, Brian is, I don't know how much
Speaker 3: you like your job, but if you wanted to quit
Speaker 3: and go work as a deputy, say secretary of state,
Speaker 3: I would endorse you're a person to go and do that,
Speaker 3: because man, I would love that kind of view up
Speaker 3: at the Secretary of State, because you're absolutely nailing all
Speaker 3: the things that are important to the United States. I mean,
Speaker 3: that's what Trump ran on. He ran on wanted to
Speaker 3: be the America First. He actually signed that into an
Speaker 3: executive order that his foreign policy would be America First.
Speaker 3: And he's doing exactly what he said he was going
Speaker 3: to do, and so far, all of those things you
Speaker 3: mentioned are good for the United States. And I guess
Speaker 3: to answer your question about you know why this is
Speaker 3: and why there's so much reticence and resistance from the
Speaker 3: Europeans especially, Yeah, it's because we've tied all of this
Speaker 3: action over the last three years to our credibility as
Speaker 3: an alliance and even to the essence of who we are.
Speaker 3: We said, and I actually did this on my show
Speaker 3: yesterday a little bit kind of running through the history
Speaker 3: of the last three years and in just a few minutes,
Speaker 3: but basically we said that Russia had to lose, Ukraine
Speaker 3: had to win at the outset of the war, and
Speaker 3: then everything to that extent was said throughout the rest
Speaker 3: of it.
Speaker 2: And many still say to this.
Speaker 3: Day they cannot conceive of not winning, even if it
Speaker 3: comes to the expense of benefits to our country, as
Speaker 3: you pointed out, and so far it looks like Trump
Speaker 3: is willing to just blow off all that pressure to
Speaker 3: do what makes sense.
Speaker 1: Well, the alliance that we're talking about here was built
Speaker 1: on a post World War two Europe that needed to
Speaker 1: be rebuilt, but also then immediately began to be fearful
Speaker 1: of the Soviet Union and their communist ways. I mean,
Speaker 1: FDR sold out all those Eastern European countries at Yalta.
Speaker 1: They became a part of the Iron Curtain. Their lives
Speaker 1: became miserable. Postfall of the Soviet Union, many of them
Speaker 1: became more prosperous. I mean Ukraine, for example, breadbasket of
Speaker 1: Europe at least at one point until this war showed up,
Speaker 1: so they were in a better position. I just don't
Speaker 1: know understand why again, this animosity and this fear that
Speaker 1: we have over Russia now them invading.
Speaker 2: I'll tell you though, on.
Speaker 3: That point there, it's important because there's another benefit that
Speaker 3: happened prior to February twenty fourth, twenty twenty two, and
Speaker 3: that was that Europe was significantly benefiting from Russian oil
Speaker 3: and gas because it was coming in at a very
Speaker 3: low price, which benefited all of Europe and all of
Speaker 3: their economy, and everything was predicated on low inputs, low
Speaker 3: cost of inputs, so that they could have cost of outputs,
Speaker 3: they could have higher profits and all that kind of thing.
Speaker 3: We have absolutely shot ourselves in the foot and maybe
Speaker 3: even one knee by keeping these sanctions on Russia because
Speaker 3: it's harmed us a lot more than it has them.
Speaker 3: And listen, all of this, all of this, one hundred
Speaker 3: percent came from our absolute overt insistence on putting NATO
Speaker 3: into Ukraine, something that would never keep anybody in Europe safer.
Speaker 3: All that would do is exactly what it did is
Speaker 3: raise the tensions, increase the chance of something bad happening
Speaker 3: where we could end up in a war, and it
Speaker 3: didn't do anything but destroy Ukraine. That is I think
Speaker 3: going to be one of the biggest blights on the West,
Speaker 3: on the previous administration that history can put on us.
Speaker 1: Yeah, country filled with land mines in a post war situation.
Speaker 1: It's just just a terrible thought when you come when
Speaker 1: it comes down to it, and.
Speaker 2: I drew a parallel.
Speaker 1: I just kind of bounced this off your head. Earlier
Speaker 1: in the program I said, you know, if you look
Speaker 1: like Crimea, for example, the vast majority of folks there
Speaker 1: were pro Russia. They didn't have any problem with the
Speaker 1: Russians taking them over. I said, you know, it's a
Speaker 1: lot like those multiple counties in Illinois that want to
Speaker 1: become part of Indiana or half of the state of
Speaker 1: California that wants to break off and separate itself from
Speaker 1: the insane leftists that currently run the country. You know,
Speaker 1: we're not going to get Crimea back. And if you
Speaker 1: ask the Crimeans, they probably would say, we don't want
Speaker 1: to go back.
Speaker 3: Ohred percent they and it's not just that they're pro Russian,
Speaker 3: they're ethnic Russian. I mean they they are historically Russian.
Speaker 3: And in fact, I may get the year wrong in this.
Speaker 3: I think it was something about nineteen fifty. They were
Speaker 3: part of Russia, they were part of the Soviet Union,
Speaker 3: et cetera.
Speaker 2: And then I think it was the ship. Don't hold
Speaker 2: me to that.
Speaker 3: It was one of the one of the Soviet premiers
Speaker 3: just designated it to Ukraine, which didn't really cause much
Speaker 3: of us stir at the time because it was all
Speaker 3: within the USSR. But the historically they have been Russian
Speaker 3: and they ethnically are still Russian and they voted. You
Speaker 3: don't even have to ask them because they told you
Speaker 3: what their own voice. With this plea to decide that
Speaker 3: they overwhelmed the I think ninety five percent voted to
Speaker 3: be in Russian and all of them Russians and Ukrainian
Speaker 3: Crimeans consider themselves to be Russians today, so that's never
Speaker 3: coming back. And that's the case with the majority of
Speaker 3: the area that is under Russia control today in terms
Speaker 3: of ethnic Russians that are in there, and it's even
Speaker 3: on the other side of the line up to the
Speaker 3: Danepa River, still significant portions are ethnic Russians. When that
Speaker 3: outcome is kind of what a lot of people are
Speaker 3: wondering where these negotiations are going, because a great many
Speaker 3: of those people want to go to Russia as well.
Speaker 2: Well.
Speaker 1: Trump talking directly with Putin to the exclusion of Lensky,
Speaker 1: that seems to have rubbed them the wrong way. He's
Speaker 1: also though, negotiating with the President of Ukraine's Lensky to
Speaker 1: deal with economic relationships with them, because they have stuff
Speaker 1: that we would like to buy, and if we buy it,
Speaker 1: then that benefits them economically. So there seems to be
Speaker 1: an air of positivity associated with it in a post
Speaker 1: war environment, how do you think Trump is dealing with
Speaker 1: the war component? He can talk with Peutin all day
Speaker 1: long about economic relationships, but settling the war, how do
Speaker 1: you think he's going to approach that and what announcement
Speaker 1: do you think is going to come from that if any?
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's going to be the really difficult part, which
Speaker 3: is kind of shrouded in mystery so far. I'm sure
Speaker 3: that's intentional because I'm sure there's lots of discussions about.
Speaker 2: Where the line is going to be.
Speaker 3: Is it going to be on the current line of
Speaker 3: contact between the two Is it going to be on
Speaker 3: the administrative borders of the for oblasted Russia annexed in
Speaker 3: twenty twenty two, because right now a subsiizable portion of
Speaker 3: all three of the southern provinces are still under Ukrainian control,
Speaker 3: and for that to be the line, which Russians is
Speaker 3: their minimum standard, Ukraine would have to withdraw from there
Speaker 3: and abandon those areas through negotiations, not being forced out
Speaker 3: by war.
Speaker 2: That's what I advocate.
Speaker 3: I think that's the best thing that could happen, because
Speaker 3: the alternative is that Russia doesn't agree to the current
Speaker 3: line of contact, and they continue marching forward with their
Speaker 3: armed forces until they seize territory by force of RUMs,
Speaker 3: which means more Ukrainians would die. The line's going to
Speaker 3: be over there, in my view, one way or the other,
Speaker 3: either by negotiations where a lot of Ukraines have to
Speaker 3: suffer the embarrassment but are alive to withdraw out, or
Speaker 3: they'll take it and those people will be dead. And
Speaker 3: so I think that it's that stark of an option
Speaker 3: right now, and it's unknown right now what Trump's going
Speaker 3: to agree to.
Speaker 1: Do you think there's an economic component that would benefit
Speaker 1: Ukraine in that type of resolution, like, hey, okay, we're
Speaker 1: willing to concede the territory, but Russia, you got to
Speaker 1: do something for us, maybe providing energy or other resources. Again,
Speaker 1: if you have free trade between those two countries after
Speaker 1: you resolve your differences, it can only benefit both countries.
Speaker 1: Is there a dangling carrot in there for Ukraine that
Speaker 1: can make a concession.
Speaker 2: You would have to.
Speaker 3: Have Russia make a concession from a position of strength
Speaker 3: that they don't have to make. They don't have to
Speaker 3: offer almost anything because Russia is willing to pay the
Speaker 3: price of losing more their soldiers, extending the war, and
Speaker 3: the cost to go along with that, in order to
Speaker 3: secure this what they view as their minimum security requirements
Speaker 3: on their border. That's the real crux of all this
Speaker 3: is that Putin is not looking at the getting the
Speaker 3: war over with. He's looking at the long term security
Speaker 3: on his western border and why they went to war
Speaker 3: in the first place. If he thinks the current line
Speaker 3: of contact won't provide him that long term security, he
Speaker 3: won't agree to it, and he doesn't have to. And
Speaker 3: if Trump doesn't, Russia will just keep fighting. And that's
Speaker 3: the problem is that Russia has leverage that we don't have.
Speaker 3: But to your question about the economics, Ukraine, whatever is
Speaker 3: going to be left of it will one hundred percent
Speaker 3: benefit economically because Europe is standing by already and that
Speaker 3: was in Trump's meeting with MACRONI yesterday. They're standing boy
Speaker 3: to have all kinds of post war development and you know,
Speaker 3: taking care of things that were destroyed, etc. So there's
Speaker 3: a lot of benefit for the Ukraine's not the least
Speaker 3: of which nobody else would have to die.
Speaker 1: Now if this treaty, if a treaty resolution land concessions
Speaker 1: that Russia gets what they want. There's all this talk
Speaker 1: about peacekeeping forces being kept in Ukraine. Do you think
Speaker 1: there's really a necessary element of a peacekeeping force? If
Speaker 1: Russia ultimately gets back or gets its Russian components out
Speaker 1: of Ukraine, a new line is drawn. Is there any
Speaker 1: further risk of Russia saying that's screw it, We're going
Speaker 1: to go for the whole thing. I mean, if they
Speaker 1: want to do that, they already have the force in
Speaker 1: place right now, and they can just do it. There's
Speaker 1: reports out this morning that in the Russian media and
Speaker 1: the Russian military media that what Zelensky had said last
Speaker 1: week was one hundred and fifty thousand formation of Russian
Speaker 1: forces is actually closer to two hundred thousand in contact.
Speaker 1: It's in addition to everything that's about seven hundred thousand
Speaker 1: on the line of contact right now Russian forces, there's
Speaker 1: another two hundred thousand, which by the way, is bigger,
Speaker 1: probably by a factor of two, than the one that
Speaker 1: invaded Ukraine in the first place.
Speaker 2: That's the size we're talking about.
Speaker 3: It's not engaged anywhere, it is positioned to where it
Speaker 3: can go into a number of different places. If negotiations
Speaker 3: apparently break down so they can do it right now.
Speaker 3: But I think that they want to get things done
Speaker 3: diplomatically as long as they can get what they think
Speaker 3: is their security going forward. And that's really what it
Speaker 3: all comes down to, all.
Speaker 1: Right, As we've parted coming to today, Daniel Davis, I
Speaker 1: just always thoroughly enjoyed these conversations. Do you see this
Speaker 1: a negotiated resolution happening in the near term, you know,
Speaker 1: like weeks as opposed to six months or another year.
Speaker 3: Well, Trump yesterday at his press conference said out loud
Speaker 3: that he thinks that Zelensky could be here either this
Speaker 3: week or next week to sign a deal for the
Speaker 3: mineral right, and then he said the war itself could
Speaker 3: be wrapped up within a few weeks. He had his
Speaker 3: National security advisor earlier that morning yesterday said he could
Speaker 3: be done.
Speaker 2: As quickly as a week or two.
Speaker 3: So he's definitely thinking that this is in the end
Speaker 3: game right now. And then the question is going to be,
Speaker 3: is Zelenski you gonna accept it? Because I'm thinking that
Speaker 3: Trump is getting to the position to where he's not
Speaker 3: going to say to Zelenski, you either accept this deal
Speaker 3: or good luck to you, and you're up trying to
Speaker 3: figure it out on your own because we're coming to
Speaker 3: an end.
Speaker 2: I think that's what Trump's setting up.
Speaker 1: Fair enough. This has been another Daniel Davis deep dive.
Speaker 1: I've always looked forward to it. I'm already looking forward
Speaker 1: to another one next Tuesday. Daniel. Have a wonderful week, sir,
Speaker 1: and thanks for spending time with my listeners. In me.
Speaker 2: Same to you. I love you guys, to see you
Speaker 2: next time.
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