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<v Speaker 1>Hey twenty nine on a Tuesday. Regular listeners know it's

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<v Speaker 1>even appointment listening time. You can also find the podcast

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<v Speaker 1>at five Caresee dot com. Welcome back my retired lieutenant

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<v Speaker 1>colonel friend Daniel Davis for the Daniel Davis Deep Dive.

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<v Speaker 1>Good to talk to you today, sir, as always.

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<v Speaker 2>Always a pleasure to be here. Look forward to this

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<v Speaker 2>every week, and so do I.

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<v Speaker 1>And interesting times with Trump negotiating with Putin over a

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<v Speaker 1>resolution of this war, and it seems to me for

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<v Speaker 1>some reason it's got the left all bent out of shape.

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<v Speaker 1>And I don't know why, because in addition to negotiating

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<v Speaker 1>with Putin on some sort of resolution, he's also trying

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<v Speaker 1>to open up economic cooperation for the benefit of both countries.

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<v Speaker 1>And what I observe here if you put down this

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<v Speaker 1>whole idea that Vladimir Putin is the same thing as

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<v Speaker 1>the Soviet Union. And I know he doesn't have clean hands,

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<v Speaker 1>but we work and trade with a lot of countries

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<v Speaker 1>who don't have clean hands, right, I mean, we're picking

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<v Speaker 1>and choosing who is good and who's bad. And I

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<v Speaker 1>point to the Chinese gum in the Chinese Communist Party.

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<v Speaker 1>We trade with them all the time, and they are

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<v Speaker 1>our outstanding number one enemy in the world. So putting

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<v Speaker 1>that aside, though, if we could negotiate some sort of

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<v Speaker 1>economic cooperation along with this and along with resolving the conflict,

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<v Speaker 1>and I know you want to talk about that, but

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<v Speaker 1>that would, I would argue, have the result of benefiting

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<v Speaker 1>both countries economically. We can stop worrying about getting into

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<v Speaker 1>a shooting war with the Solviet or with the Russians.

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<v Speaker 1>Here I slipped with the Russians. You know, NATO wouldn't

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<v Speaker 1>have to concern itself with being invaded by Vladimir Putin,

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<v Speaker 1>and it might tear the getting cozier relationship between Russia

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<v Speaker 1>and China away, so we got all focus on the

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<v Speaker 1>real enemy, which is China. I don't know, I'm just

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<v Speaker 1>I know, I'm kind of sort of on a stream

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<v Speaker 1>of consciousness on this, but I don't see this discussion

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<v Speaker 1>as a bad thing in any way. Your reactions, sir, well.

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<v Speaker 3>My initial reaction, Brian is, I don't know how much

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<v Speaker 3>you like your job, but if you wanted to quit

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<v Speaker 3>and go work as a deputy, say secretary of state,

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<v Speaker 3>I would endorse you're a person to go and do that,

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<v Speaker 3>because man, I would love that kind of view up

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<v Speaker 3>at the Secretary of State, because you're absolutely nailing all

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<v Speaker 3>the things that are important to the United States. I mean,

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<v Speaker 3>that's what Trump ran on. He ran on wanted to

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<v Speaker 3>be the America First. He actually signed that into an

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<v Speaker 3>executive order that his foreign policy would be America First.

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<v Speaker 3>And he's doing exactly what he said he was going

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<v Speaker 3>to do, and so far, all of those things you

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<v Speaker 3>mentioned are good for the United States. And I guess

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<v Speaker 3>to answer your question about you know why this is

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<v Speaker 3>and why there's so much reticence and resistance from the

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<v Speaker 3>Europeans especially, Yeah, it's because we've tied all of this

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<v Speaker 3>action over the last three years to our credibility as

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<v Speaker 3>an alliance and even to the essence of who we are.

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<v Speaker 3>We said, and I actually did this on my show

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<v Speaker 3>yesterday a little bit kind of running through the history

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<v Speaker 3>of the last three years and in just a few minutes,

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<v Speaker 3>but basically we said that Russia had to lose, Ukraine

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<v Speaker 3>had to win at the outset of the war, and

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<v Speaker 3>then everything to that extent was said throughout the rest

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<v Speaker 3>of it.

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<v Speaker 2>And many still say to this.

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<v Speaker 3>Day they cannot conceive of not winning, even if it

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<v Speaker 3>comes to the expense of benefits to our country, as

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<v Speaker 3>you pointed out, and so far it looks like Trump

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<v Speaker 3>is willing to just blow off all that pressure to

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<v Speaker 3>do what makes sense.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, the alliance that we're talking about here was built

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<v Speaker 1>on a post World War two Europe that needed to

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<v Speaker 1>be rebuilt, but also then immediately began to be fearful

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<v Speaker 1>of the Soviet Union and their communist ways. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>FDR sold out all those Eastern European countries at Yalta.

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<v Speaker 1>They became a part of the Iron Curtain. Their lives

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<v Speaker 1>became miserable. Postfall of the Soviet Union, many of them

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<v Speaker 1>became more prosperous. I mean Ukraine, for example, breadbasket of

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<v Speaker 1>Europe at least at one point until this war showed up,

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<v Speaker 1>so they were in a better position. I just don't

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<v Speaker 1>know understand why again, this animosity and this fear that

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<v Speaker 1>we have over Russia now them invading.

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<v Speaker 2>I'll tell you though, on.

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<v Speaker 3>That point there, it's important because there's another benefit that

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<v Speaker 3>happened prior to February twenty fourth, twenty twenty two, and

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<v Speaker 3>that was that Europe was significantly benefiting from Russian oil

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<v Speaker 3>and gas because it was coming in at a very

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<v Speaker 3>low price, which benefited all of Europe and all of

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<v Speaker 3>their economy, and everything was predicated on low inputs, low

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<v Speaker 3>cost of inputs, so that they could have cost of outputs,

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<v Speaker 3>they could have higher profits and all that kind of thing.

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<v Speaker 3>We have absolutely shot ourselves in the foot and maybe

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<v Speaker 3>even one knee by keeping these sanctions on Russia because

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<v Speaker 3>it's harmed us a lot more than it has them.

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<v Speaker 3>And listen, all of this, all of this, one hundred

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<v Speaker 3>percent came from our absolute overt insistence on putting NATO

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<v Speaker 3>into Ukraine, something that would never keep anybody in Europe safer.

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<v Speaker 3>All that would do is exactly what it did is

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<v Speaker 3>raise the tensions, increase the chance of something bad happening

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<v Speaker 3>where we could end up in a war, and it

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<v Speaker 3>didn't do anything but destroy Ukraine. That is I think

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<v Speaker 3>going to be one of the biggest blights on the West,

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<v Speaker 3>on the previous administration that history can put on us.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, country filled with land mines in a post war situation.

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<v Speaker 1>It's just just a terrible thought when you come when

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<v Speaker 1>it comes down to it, and.

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<v Speaker 2>I drew a parallel.

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<v Speaker 1>I just kind of bounced this off your head. Earlier

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<v Speaker 1>in the program I said, you know, if you look

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<v Speaker 1>like Crimea, for example, the vast majority of folks there

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<v Speaker 1>were pro Russia. They didn't have any problem with the

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<v Speaker 1>Russians taking them over. I said, you know, it's a

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<v Speaker 1>lot like those multiple counties in Illinois that want to

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<v Speaker 1>become part of Indiana or half of the state of

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<v Speaker 1>California that wants to break off and separate itself from

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<v Speaker 1>the insane leftists that currently run the country. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>we're not going to get Crimea back. And if you

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<v Speaker 1>ask the Crimeans, they probably would say, we don't want

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<v Speaker 1>to go back.

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<v Speaker 3>Ohred percent they and it's not just that they're pro Russian,

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<v Speaker 3>they're ethnic Russian. I mean they they are historically Russian.

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<v Speaker 3>And in fact, I may get the year wrong in this.

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<v Speaker 3>I think it was something about nineteen fifty. They were

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<v Speaker 3>part of Russia, they were part of the Soviet Union,

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<v Speaker 3>et cetera.

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<v Speaker 2>And then I think it was the ship. Don't hold

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<v Speaker 2>me to that.

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<v Speaker 3>It was one of the one of the Soviet premiers

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<v Speaker 3>just designated it to Ukraine, which didn't really cause much

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<v Speaker 3>of us stir at the time because it was all

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<v Speaker 3>within the USSR. But the historically they have been Russian

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<v Speaker 3>and they ethnically are still Russian and they voted. You

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<v Speaker 3>don't even have to ask them because they told you

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<v Speaker 3>what their own voice. With this plea to decide that

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<v Speaker 3>they overwhelmed the I think ninety five percent voted to

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<v Speaker 3>be in Russian and all of them Russians and Ukrainian

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<v Speaker 3>Crimeans consider themselves to be Russians today, so that's never

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<v Speaker 3>coming back. And that's the case with the majority of

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<v Speaker 3>the area that is under Russia control today in terms

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<v Speaker 3>of ethnic Russians that are in there, and it's even

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<v Speaker 3>on the other side of the line up to the

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<v Speaker 3>Danepa River, still significant portions are ethnic Russians. When that

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<v Speaker 3>outcome is kind of what a lot of people are

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<v Speaker 3>wondering where these negotiations are going, because a great many

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<v Speaker 3>of those people want to go to Russia as well.

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<v Speaker 2>Well.

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<v Speaker 1>Trump talking directly with Putin to the exclusion of Lensky,

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<v Speaker 1>that seems to have rubbed them the wrong way. He's

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<v Speaker 1>also though, negotiating with the President of Ukraine's Lensky to

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<v Speaker 1>deal with economic relationships with them, because they have stuff

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<v Speaker 1>that we would like to buy, and if we buy it,

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<v Speaker 1>then that benefits them economically. So there seems to be

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<v Speaker 1>an air of positivity associated with it in a post

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<v Speaker 1>war environment, how do you think Trump is dealing with

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<v Speaker 1>the war component? He can talk with Peutin all day

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<v Speaker 1>long about economic relationships, but settling the war, how do

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<v Speaker 1>you think he's going to approach that and what announcement

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<v Speaker 1>do you think is going to come from that if any?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, that's going to be the really difficult part, which

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<v Speaker 3>is kind of shrouded in mystery so far. I'm sure

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<v Speaker 3>that's intentional because I'm sure there's lots of discussions about.

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<v Speaker 2>Where the line is going to be.

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<v Speaker 3>Is it going to be on the current line of

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<v Speaker 3>contact between the two Is it going to be on

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<v Speaker 3>the administrative borders of the for oblasted Russia annexed in

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<v Speaker 3>twenty twenty two, because right now a subsiizable portion of

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<v Speaker 3>all three of the southern provinces are still under Ukrainian control,

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<v Speaker 3>and for that to be the line, which Russians is

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<v Speaker 3>their minimum standard, Ukraine would have to withdraw from there

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<v Speaker 3>and abandon those areas through negotiations, not being forced out

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<v Speaker 3>by war.

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<v Speaker 2>That's what I advocate.

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<v Speaker 3>I think that's the best thing that could happen, because

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<v Speaker 3>the alternative is that Russia doesn't agree to the current

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<v Speaker 3>line of contact, and they continue marching forward with their

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<v Speaker 3>armed forces until they seize territory by force of RUMs,

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<v Speaker 3>which means more Ukrainians would die. The line's going to

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<v Speaker 3>be over there, in my view, one way or the other,

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<v Speaker 3>either by negotiations where a lot of Ukraines have to

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<v Speaker 3>suffer the embarrassment but are alive to withdraw out, or

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<v Speaker 3>they'll take it and those people will be dead. And

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<v Speaker 3>so I think that it's that stark of an option

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<v Speaker 3>right now, and it's unknown right now what Trump's going

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<v Speaker 3>to agree to.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you think there's an economic component that would benefit

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<v Speaker 1>Ukraine in that type of resolution, like, hey, okay, we're

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<v Speaker 1>willing to concede the territory, but Russia, you got to

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<v Speaker 1>do something for us, maybe providing energy or other resources. Again,

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<v Speaker 1>if you have free trade between those two countries after

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<v Speaker 1>you resolve your differences, it can only benefit both countries.

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<v Speaker 1>Is there a dangling carrot in there for Ukraine that

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<v Speaker 1>can make a concession.

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<v Speaker 2>You would have to.

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<v Speaker 3>Have Russia make a concession from a position of strength

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<v Speaker 3>that they don't have to make. They don't have to

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<v Speaker 3>offer almost anything because Russia is willing to pay the

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<v Speaker 3>price of losing more their soldiers, extending the war, and

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<v Speaker 3>the cost to go along with that, in order to

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<v Speaker 3>secure this what they view as their minimum security requirements

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<v Speaker 3>on their border. That's the real crux of all this

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<v Speaker 3>is that Putin is not looking at the getting the

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<v Speaker 3>war over with. He's looking at the long term security

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<v Speaker 3>on his western border and why they went to war

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<v Speaker 3>in the first place. If he thinks the current line

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<v Speaker 3>of contact won't provide him that long term security, he

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<v Speaker 3>won't agree to it, and he doesn't have to. And

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<v Speaker 3>if Trump doesn't, Russia will just keep fighting. And that's

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<v Speaker 3>the problem is that Russia has leverage that we don't have.

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<v Speaker 3>But to your question about the economics, Ukraine, whatever is

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<v Speaker 3>going to be left of it will one hundred percent

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<v Speaker 3>benefit economically because Europe is standing by already and that

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<v Speaker 3>was in Trump's meeting with MACRONI yesterday. They're standing boy

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<v Speaker 3>to have all kinds of post war development and you know,

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<v Speaker 3>taking care of things that were destroyed, etc. So there's

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of benefit for the Ukraine's not the least

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<v Speaker 3>of which nobody else would have to die.

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<v Speaker 1>Now if this treaty, if a treaty resolution land concessions

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<v Speaker 1>that Russia gets what they want. There's all this talk

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<v Speaker 1>about peacekeeping forces being kept in Ukraine. Do you think

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<v Speaker 1>there's really a necessary element of a peacekeeping force? If

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<v Speaker 1>Russia ultimately gets back or gets its Russian components out

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<v Speaker 1>of Ukraine, a new line is drawn. Is there any

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<v Speaker 1>further risk of Russia saying that's screw it, We're going

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<v Speaker 1>to go for the whole thing. I mean, if they

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<v Speaker 1>want to do that, they already have the force in

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<v Speaker 1>place right now, and they can just do it. There's

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<v Speaker 1>reports out this morning that in the Russian media and

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<v Speaker 1>the Russian military media that what Zelensky had said last

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<v Speaker 1>week was one hundred and fifty thousand formation of Russian

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<v Speaker 1>forces is actually closer to two hundred thousand in contact.

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<v Speaker 1>It's in addition to everything that's about seven hundred thousand

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<v Speaker 1>on the line of contact right now Russian forces, there's

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<v Speaker 1>another two hundred thousand, which by the way, is bigger,

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<v Speaker 1>probably by a factor of two, than the one that

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<v Speaker 1>invaded Ukraine in the first place.

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<v Speaker 2>That's the size we're talking about.

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<v Speaker 3>It's not engaged anywhere, it is positioned to where it

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<v Speaker 3>can go into a number of different places. If negotiations

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<v Speaker 3>apparently break down so they can do it right now.

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<v Speaker 3>But I think that they want to get things done

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<v Speaker 3>diplomatically as long as they can get what they think

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<v Speaker 3>is their security going forward. And that's really what it

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<v Speaker 3>all comes down to, all.

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<v Speaker 1>Right, As we've parted coming to today, Daniel Davis, I

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<v Speaker 1>just always thoroughly enjoyed these conversations. Do you see this

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<v Speaker 1>a negotiated resolution happening in the near term, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>like weeks as opposed to six months or another year.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, Trump yesterday at his press conference said out loud

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<v Speaker 3>that he thinks that Zelensky could be here either this

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<v Speaker 3>week or next week to sign a deal for the

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<v Speaker 3>mineral right, and then he said the war itself could

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<v Speaker 3>be wrapped up within a few weeks. He had his

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<v Speaker 3>National security advisor earlier that morning yesterday said he could

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<v Speaker 3>be done.

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<v Speaker 2>As quickly as a week or two.

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<v Speaker 3>So he's definitely thinking that this is in the end

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<v Speaker 3>game right now. And then the question is going to be,

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<v Speaker 3>is Zelenski you gonna accept it? Because I'm thinking that

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<v Speaker 3>Trump is getting to the position to where he's not

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<v Speaker 3>going to say to Zelenski, you either accept this deal

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<v Speaker 3>or good luck to you, and you're up trying to

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<v Speaker 3>figure it out on your own because we're coming to

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<v Speaker 3>an end.

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<v Speaker 2>I think that's what Trump's setting up.

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<v Speaker 1>Fair enough. This has been another Daniel Davis deep dive.

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<v Speaker 1>I've always looked forward to it. I'm already looking forward

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<v Speaker 1>to another one next Tuesday. Daniel. Have a wonderful week, sir,

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<v Speaker 1>and thanks for spending time with my listeners. In me.

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<v Speaker 2>Same to you. I love you guys, to see you

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<v Speaker 2>next time.

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<v Speaker 1>Take care, brother eight forty two fifty five care. See

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<v Speaker 1>the talk station joking up up the phone line. If

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<v Speaker 1>you want to comment on something, please fill three five one,

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<v Speaker 1>three seven four nine to fifty five hundred eight hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and eight two three talk pound five fifty on AT

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<v Speaker 1>and T phones.

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<v Speaker 2>I'll be right back.

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<v Speaker 3>This is fifty five KARC an iHeartRadio station.

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<v Speaker 2>My name is car