1
00:00:01,960 --> 00:00:08,400
Speaker 1: Oklahoma versus Texas, Ohio State at Illinois, Alabama at Missouri, Indiana, Oregon,

2
00:00:08,640 --> 00:00:11,279
South Carolina at LSU. If you're looking for free winning

3
00:00:11,359 --> 00:00:15,519
picks on any of those big Week seven college football matchups,

4
00:00:15,519 --> 00:00:17,679
well then you have come to the right place. What's

5
00:00:17,679 --> 00:00:20,160
going on, everybody? Welcome to the Blitz. We are live

6
00:00:20,320 --> 00:00:23,039
here on the Wage Talk YouTube channel, as is the

7
00:00:23,079 --> 00:00:26,320
case every Thursday at one pm Eastern. And not only

8
00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:28,039
do we have free picks on all the games I

9
00:00:28,079 --> 00:00:31,559
just mentioned, but if you're watching us live, there's a benefit.

10
00:00:31,600 --> 00:00:33,320
You can go ahead and ask us about any other

11
00:00:33,399 --> 00:00:37,240
game you'd like our opinion on. We will answer those questions.

12
00:00:37,240 --> 00:00:39,840
You can start firing them off right now down below.

13
00:00:39,960 --> 00:00:43,960
Joining me this week, Ralph Michaels and Steve Merrill. Ralph,

14
00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:45,679
I'm gonna go to you first as we open this

15
00:00:45,679 --> 00:00:49,200
week's discussion with Red River, Oklahoma and Texas three point

16
00:00:49,200 --> 00:00:52,520
thirty Eastern on ABC. A very interesting line here, I

17
00:00:52,600 --> 00:00:57,119
thought odds makers have installed this now unranked and completely

18
00:00:57,200 --> 00:01:01,880
desperate Texas team as a slight favorite over the sixth ranks. Sooners,

19
00:01:02,479 --> 00:01:04,280
there are important questions I think that need to be

20
00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:06,640
addressed here, namely, at the quarterback position for both teams.

21
00:01:06,640 --> 00:01:09,640
For Oklahoma, we're all trying to figure out is John

22
00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:12,120
Mattier going to return from injury? And for Texas is

23
00:01:12,239 --> 00:01:14,680
arch Manning just not any good? Give me your thoughts

24
00:01:14,680 --> 00:01:15,200
on this one.

25
00:01:18,359 --> 00:01:21,319
Speaker 2: You know, obviously, I think the line is baked in

26
00:01:21,359 --> 00:01:23,920
that they're not expecting Matier now, you know, with Texas

27
00:01:23,920 --> 00:01:27,319
being the favorite, if you know, with what you read

28
00:01:27,599 --> 00:01:30,719
a couple hours ago, I looked and basically he's day

29
00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:33,760
to day. You know, when he had his hand surgery

30
00:01:33,799 --> 00:01:36,480
on a broken bone on his throwing hand three weeks ago,

31
00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:38,400
no one thought he would even be here for this game.

32
00:01:38,480 --> 00:01:41,799
So it's pretty remarkable that he's actually practiced some. But

33
00:01:42,599 --> 00:01:45,159
I like Oklahoma, but I cannot back them with a

34
00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:48,680
true freshman if Mattier doesn't go. So this may be

35
00:01:48,719 --> 00:01:50,920
a game that if he practices today and we get

36
00:01:50,920 --> 00:01:54,439
a positive report and then you know he is ready

37
00:01:54,439 --> 00:01:57,159
to go Saturday morning, I may get on with this game.

38
00:01:57,519 --> 00:01:59,319
You know, as far as you look at arch Manning,

39
00:02:00,079 --> 00:02:02,640
you know, you look at his stats, they're not horrible.

40
00:02:03,000 --> 00:02:06,079
Eleven to five or eight touchdown interception ratio, eight point

41
00:02:06,120 --> 00:02:10,280
five YPA, sixty percent completions but you look at his

42
00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:13,599
games at Florida and at Ohio State, that's where he

43
00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:16,199
really struggled. He was a combined thirty four of sixty

44
00:02:16,199 --> 00:02:20,120
two in those games. What shocked the hell out of

45
00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:24,080
me last week was Texas's defense. Was I shocked that

46
00:02:24,120 --> 00:02:27,400
they lost at Florida? No? Was I shocked that they

47
00:02:27,439 --> 00:02:31,240
lost to Florida and allowed four hundred and fifty seven yards,

48
00:02:31,560 --> 00:02:34,360
got out gained by one hundred and sixteen yards, got

49
00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:37,840
out first down twenty two to sixteen, one hundred percent.

50
00:02:37,960 --> 00:02:42,280
I was shocked. The Oklahoma defense has done what it's asked.

51
00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:46,520
You look at a defense that is allowing one hundred

52
00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:50,280
and ninety three yards per game. They have held four

53
00:02:50,319 --> 00:02:53,919
of their five opponents to a season low. It is

54
00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:56,759
interesting to note the first three games with material healthy,

55
00:02:57,080 --> 00:03:01,360
their offense also had a season high against their opponents.

56
00:03:01,759 --> 00:03:07,120
So to me, statistically, Oklahoma with a massive advantage. Looking

57
00:03:07,159 --> 00:03:11,960
at my stat compare sheet, we're looking at a Texas

58
00:03:11,960 --> 00:03:15,800
team that's the number seventy seven toughest schedule, Oklahoma's eighty seven.

59
00:03:15,879 --> 00:03:21,719
So basically, even with those even schedules, Oklahoma's number seven

60
00:03:21,759 --> 00:03:24,680
in yards per game diff and number fourteen in yards

61
00:03:24,680 --> 00:03:27,960
per playdiff Texas quite a bit behind twenty two and

62
00:03:28,039 --> 00:03:31,759
twenty five. And this Oklahoma defense just doesn't give up

63
00:03:31,800 --> 00:03:36,120
big plays. They're number two in explosive plays allowed those

64
00:03:36,120 --> 00:03:39,680
of ten or more. Oklahoma for me, doesn't make my

65
00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:43,439
card unless I know materiis healthy. If he is healthy, though,

66
00:03:43,680 --> 00:03:46,520
I'm gonna guess this goes to Oklahoma minus three.

67
00:03:47,120 --> 00:03:49,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would agree with that it'll be, and then Steve,

68
00:03:50,000 --> 00:03:52,639
it would be interesting because you know, I'm one who

69
00:03:52,639 --> 00:03:55,719
always likes to, you know, play with fire, go against

70
00:03:55,719 --> 00:03:58,400
the current, swim upstream if you will. I almost wonder

71
00:03:58,400 --> 00:03:59,840
if it would be if but here does play, if

72
00:03:59,840 --> 00:04:02,639
there's an overreaction, then and you know, like Ralph's the

73
00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:04,759
way the lines moving, and maybe there would there would

74
00:04:04,800 --> 00:04:06,879
be some value on Texas. But my question is Ralph

75
00:04:06,919 --> 00:04:08,520
brought up a lot of great points about the respective

76
00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:11,840
defenses here. They're both very good, and Oklahoma is a

77
00:04:11,840 --> 00:04:14,159
perfect five and zero to the under this year. I'm

78
00:04:14,280 --> 00:04:17,000
surprised looking at the odd screen this total's moved up

79
00:04:17,079 --> 00:04:19,120
a point. I know that's not a big deal, but

80
00:04:19,879 --> 00:04:21,879
you know it opened forty two and a half. Obviously

81
00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:25,639
that's very low, but you know, with those quarterback uncertainties

82
00:04:25,680 --> 00:04:28,399
we're talking about and the defense of you know how

83
00:04:28,439 --> 00:04:31,959
strong the defenses are, Like Ralph pointed out, I don't know.

84
00:04:32,000 --> 00:04:34,480
It's obviously gonna be a low scoring game and that's

85
00:04:34,480 --> 00:04:36,279
baked into the number. But what do you think about

86
00:04:36,319 --> 00:04:39,079
that total being moved being bent up a point?

87
00:04:40,279 --> 00:04:42,560
Speaker 3: Well, we talked about the Texas Florida game last week

88
00:04:42,600 --> 00:04:44,000
on the show, and that total was right around this

89
00:04:44,079 --> 00:04:46,959
range also forty two, forty three United State above that

90
00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:49,879
key number of forty one. It landed fifty, And as

91
00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:52,879
Ralph said, what surprised me wasn't necessarily that Florida went

92
00:04:52,920 --> 00:04:55,120
out right. We all talked about them being the ugly

93
00:04:55,160 --> 00:04:56,639
dog that no one can touch, and they kind of

94
00:04:56,680 --> 00:04:59,959
had that step up game. I do think Texas overlooked them,

95
00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:01,759
by the way, and with the look ahead game here

96
00:05:01,759 --> 00:05:03,839
with Oklahoma on deck, maybe that was the case. But

97
00:05:04,399 --> 00:05:07,240
the defense gave up over four hundred yards. So that's

98
00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:09,199
the kind of the quandary I'm in here as a

99
00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:10,920
Florida team that couldn't move the ball this season all

100
00:05:10,920 --> 00:05:14,560
of a sudden breaks out. But Oklahoma is up against it.

101
00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:16,759
They don't have their starting quarterback, Here's what's crazy. Arch

102
00:05:16,759 --> 00:05:19,079
Maning has had a very mediocre season. You're get his

103
00:05:19,199 --> 00:05:22,920
quarterback rating, it's one hundred and fifty one. Mattier on

104
00:05:22,959 --> 00:05:25,079
the season is one forty nine point five. He has

105
00:05:25,079 --> 00:05:27,639
a higher quarterback rating in the need of the Oklahoma quarterbacks,

106
00:05:27,680 --> 00:05:30,240
which is insane. It just shows how inaccurate that can be.

107
00:05:31,199 --> 00:05:32,879
But what I do dig deeper, and Ralph kind of

108
00:05:32,879 --> 00:05:35,839
touched on this is arch manning against better teams. Has

109
00:05:35,879 --> 00:05:39,920
it really performed last week against the Gators two interceptions

110
00:05:39,959 --> 00:05:42,839
against Ohio State one interception, a three to three ratio

111
00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:45,040
in those two games, and then the one that jumps

112
00:05:45,040 --> 00:05:47,720
out to me was the UTEP game. His worst radio

113
00:05:47,720 --> 00:05:49,680
of the season was against UTEP in Week three, the

114
00:05:49,759 --> 00:05:53,480
third game. He's been very inconsistent. I would lean under

115
00:05:53,519 --> 00:05:56,560
for that reason, would like more certainty of the quarterback situation.

116
00:05:57,399 --> 00:06:00,480
Mattier and Hawkins both have nice numbers as far as

117
00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:03,160
touchdown interceptions ratings. But what really jumps out to me

118
00:06:03,319 --> 00:06:05,879
is that Tiers averaging eight and a half yards per pass.

119
00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:09,160
Hawkins junior, the backup who's throwing twenty seven passes, not many,

120
00:06:09,199 --> 00:06:12,160
He's only averaging six point two. Let's wait and see

121
00:06:12,160 --> 00:06:15,519
if we get more clarity on the quarterback situation. I

122
00:06:15,639 --> 00:06:17,639
like the under if the backup is still in there,

123
00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:19,480
and I do think the Texas defense will play better

124
00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:20,480
this week if that's the case.

125
00:06:21,600 --> 00:06:23,959
Speaker 1: Okay, Ralph, you had something to scheffer.

126
00:06:26,079 --> 00:06:29,800
Speaker 2: Support you're under. Texas was sacked six times last week

127
00:06:29,839 --> 00:06:32,800
against Florida. And oh yeah, by the way, Oklahoma has

128
00:06:32,920 --> 00:06:35,720
nineteen sacks the last three weeks. Yes, two of the

129
00:06:35,759 --> 00:06:38,720
games were Temple and Kent State. But remember this same

130
00:06:38,800 --> 00:06:42,439
defense had ten sacks against Auburn. So if you want

131
00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:45,160
to see arch Man in quake a little bit, wait

132
00:06:45,199 --> 00:06:46,759
till this d line t's off on him.

133
00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:50,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I met that Auburn game against Oklahoma. Auburn

134
00:06:50,040 --> 00:06:52,240
just could not get anything going. They could not run

135
00:06:52,279 --> 00:06:55,839
the ball whatsoever. Guys, I mentioned to get those questions

136
00:06:55,879 --> 00:06:57,720
in about any game you want to hear about, and

137
00:06:57,759 --> 00:06:59,800
the beauty if you're watching live, not only do you

138
00:06:59,800 --> 00:07:01,720
get at any game, not only can you ask them

139
00:07:01,720 --> 00:07:03,759
about any game you want, but specifically you can ask

140
00:07:03,759 --> 00:07:06,680
about these weekday games. Obviously before because there's a you know,

141
00:07:06,720 --> 00:07:09,920
with Conference USA now has a bunch of games during

142
00:07:10,040 --> 00:07:12,600
the week and there's some big games in the American

143
00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:16,600
as well, and Adam one of our loyal listeners. He's

144
00:07:16,639 --> 00:07:20,759
asked about a few games here. Louisiana Tech Tonight, Louisiana Tech,

145
00:07:20,800 --> 00:07:23,199
a team that is perfect five and zero against the spread.

146
00:07:23,680 --> 00:07:25,560
Adam notes there's still some five and a half six

147
00:07:25,639 --> 00:07:28,040
is out there. The money has come in on Kennesaw State,

148
00:07:28,120 --> 00:07:30,639
the home dog in this game. Adam, I'll be honest,

149
00:07:30,680 --> 00:07:32,240
I was looking at the whole I really wanted to

150
00:07:32,240 --> 00:07:34,639
bet Kennesaw this week, and it's what and this is

151
00:07:34,680 --> 00:07:38,160
why Louisiana Tech their last two wins have been completely fraudulent.

152
00:07:38,199 --> 00:07:40,240
They were out gained in both of them, and that's

153
00:07:40,279 --> 00:07:44,199
by Southern miss and UTEP. Anyone who watched UTEP's offense

154
00:07:44,279 --> 00:07:46,319
last night knows if you're getting out gained by UTEP,

155
00:07:47,959 --> 00:07:50,759
that's not great. So I thought I was gonna be

156
00:07:50,800 --> 00:07:53,800
fading Louisiana Tech in this spot. However, I can't. This

157
00:07:53,920 --> 00:07:56,279
number does seem too low. I'll be honest with you.

158
00:07:56,720 --> 00:08:00,480
With on Kennesaw, you know I would need over seven

159
00:08:00,519 --> 00:08:01,920
to bet them, so I passed. I don't know if

160
00:08:01,920 --> 00:08:04,160
you guys have any take on this game. The numbers

161
00:08:04,199 --> 00:08:05,800
kind of gotten away from it for me.

162
00:08:07,120 --> 00:08:09,800
Speaker 3: I'll say real quick, my ten thousand game simulation has

163
00:08:10,360 --> 00:08:13,040
Louisiana Tech quite thirteen and a half. But I still

164
00:08:13,040 --> 00:08:15,199
didn't use it, Brian, for the exact same reasons you

165
00:08:15,279 --> 00:08:17,639
just said. So I'm on board with you. I wanted

166
00:08:17,639 --> 00:08:19,920
to fade them, but it's about a touchdown too low.

167
00:08:20,040 --> 00:08:21,639
So it was a pass for me for that reason.

168
00:08:21,959 --> 00:08:24,800
Two really bad offensive teams. I rate both defenses substantially

169
00:08:24,879 --> 00:08:26,639
better than the offenses. So I guess if you're looking

170
00:08:26,639 --> 00:08:29,000
at the total, under forty six and a half would

171
00:08:29,000 --> 00:08:30,560
make some sense. It open forty five and a half,

172
00:08:30,639 --> 00:08:32,919
forty seven, forty eight or key numbers. So when you

173
00:08:32,960 --> 00:08:35,080
get to forty seven or more, for some reason, I

174
00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:37,120
would start leaning under.

175
00:08:38,279 --> 00:08:41,279
Speaker 1: Another game. Here, we've got this is a This is

176
00:08:41,320 --> 00:08:47,720
a very very big game in terms of college playoff implications. Yes,

177
00:08:48,080 --> 00:08:50,320
in terms of college football playof implication. I said, it's

178
00:08:50,360 --> 00:08:54,080
South Florida against North Texas. North Texas is a team,

179
00:08:54,279 --> 00:08:56,840
and I was not alone on this. I bet them

180
00:08:56,840 --> 00:08:59,679
against Washington State a few weeks ago, and I joked

181
00:08:59,679 --> 00:09:02,279
after words that I, unfortunately might have had my easiest

182
00:09:02,279 --> 00:09:04,919
winner of the college football season. In September, I can't.

183
00:09:05,080 --> 00:09:06,879
I was watching that game, I said, why can't they

184
00:09:07,000 --> 00:09:09,799
all be like this? Guys? They just kept intercepting Washington State.

185
00:09:10,000 --> 00:09:12,759
They went fifty nine to ten North Texas. North Texas

186
00:09:12,840 --> 00:09:15,759
still unbeaten. I know they've got two overtime wins on

187
00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:19,519
the road against less than stellar competition. But this game

188
00:09:19,600 --> 00:09:23,720
is in Denton. South Florida's first ever tripped out to Denton, Texas.

189
00:09:23,799 --> 00:09:26,600
South Florida, obviously as a team that got a lot

190
00:09:26,600 --> 00:09:29,240
of attention with the upsets of Boise and Florida earlier

191
00:09:29,279 --> 00:09:32,360
in the year, line has been bouncing back and forth.

192
00:09:32,559 --> 00:09:34,879
North Texas open is a favorite. South Florida was favored,

193
00:09:34,919 --> 00:09:37,279
Now North Texas is favorite again. I'll be honest, I

194
00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:39,200
like the mean green. I don't know if any of

195
00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:43,000
you have any take on that one, Ralph.

196
00:09:45,600 --> 00:09:48,320
Speaker 2: You know, I look at the stat profiles on these teams.

197
00:09:49,399 --> 00:09:53,200
USF has played the number thirty nine schedule. North Texas

198
00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:56,240
has played the one hundred and fifteenth schedule, so they

199
00:09:56,279 --> 00:10:00,399
are seventy six better on the strength of schedule are

200
00:10:00,440 --> 00:10:04,399
the Bulls? When you look at yards per play diff

201
00:10:04,519 --> 00:10:06,879
on the season, taking the yards per play on offense,

202
00:10:06,879 --> 00:10:11,120
subtracting the defense, USF is number forty at plus one

203
00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:14,840
point three six yards per play. North Texas is only

204
00:10:14,879 --> 00:10:19,639
twenty six fourteen, only fourteen spots better despite being over

205
00:10:19,799 --> 00:10:23,919
seventy spots worse as far as the stats go, and

206
00:10:23,960 --> 00:10:27,039
when I look at their year to date numbers comparing

207
00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:30,879
what those teams do against the averages of their other opponents.

208
00:10:31,440 --> 00:10:35,440
On offense, North Texas is twenty six on offense, USF

209
00:10:35,559 --> 00:10:39,879
is twenty four. On defense, North Texas is one oh five.

210
00:10:40,639 --> 00:10:44,240
USF is eighty three. I do like USF. There's a

211
00:10:44,360 --> 00:10:46,679
chance they end up on my card.

212
00:10:47,000 --> 00:10:50,320
Speaker 1: Okay, wow, there we go different opinion there. I don't know, Steve,

213
00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:51,720
if you wanted to break the tire, if you just

214
00:10:51,799 --> 00:10:53,519
wanted to let Ralph and I just brought, I will.

215
00:10:54,120 --> 00:10:55,759
Speaker 3: I'll use the total. I actually did a three game

216
00:10:55,879 --> 00:10:57,679
video which just went up this morning, for all three

217
00:10:57,720 --> 00:10:59,720
of the Friday games tomorrow. They're actually three really good

218
00:10:59,799 --> 00:11:03,080
Nash TV games tomorrow night, and South Florida is ranked

219
00:11:03,080 --> 00:11:05,000
twenty fourth right now, North Texas is one of those

220
00:11:05,120 --> 00:11:07,919
unranked favorites. They're currently minus one pick them. It's anywhere

221
00:11:07,919 --> 00:11:09,279
from pick them to minus one and a half. But

222
00:11:09,320 --> 00:11:11,639
we'll call them as a slight unranked favorite. And by

223
00:11:11,639 --> 00:11:13,360
the way, they are getting additional votes. If they win

224
00:11:13,399 --> 00:11:15,639
this game, they will probably be top twenty five next week.

225
00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:18,039
But I like the over sixty six and a half

226
00:11:18,080 --> 00:11:20,879
in this game. North Texas had five hundred plus yards

227
00:11:20,879 --> 00:11:24,080
in half their games last year. They routinely had games

228
00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:26,039
that got into the seventies. In fact, the last two

229
00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:29,519
seasons with the current head coach this team is their

230
00:11:29,600 --> 00:11:32,600
games totaled sixty eight points and seventy two points the

231
00:11:32,600 --> 00:11:35,320
first two seasons under Eric Morris. South Florida has also

232
00:11:35,360 --> 00:11:38,879
played some high scoring games in recent years. No pun intended, Brian,

233
00:11:38,960 --> 00:11:40,519
Let's not overthink this one. I think it'll be a

234
00:11:40,519 --> 00:11:41,559
shootout on Friday night.

235
00:11:42,240 --> 00:11:44,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, and Adam noted that the over under here is

236
00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:46,759
higher than the pres I'll stop it.

237
00:11:46,879 --> 00:11:50,279
Speaker 3: By the way, Prez is working hard. It's Thursday. I

238
00:11:50,320 --> 00:11:53,000
guarantee you that right there. Yes, Prez is coming down.

239
00:11:53,000 --> 00:11:54,960
He gets back up for the weekends. But Ralph talks

240
00:11:54,960 --> 00:11:56,399
about this all the time, as do. I like, we

241
00:11:56,440 --> 00:11:58,879
always played the highest totals over. This is the second

242
00:11:58,960 --> 00:12:02,600
highest total of the week the UAB game on Saturday.

243
00:12:02,600 --> 00:12:04,399
I think it's a sixty nine, dude, So that's like

244
00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:06,200
the only one that's hired. So it's a big number

245
00:12:06,279 --> 00:12:06,759
for reasons.

246
00:12:06,919 --> 00:12:14,320
Speaker 4: Second sixteen devil Wow, All right, let's just explain that,

247
00:12:14,679 --> 00:12:17,399
you know, megas puts out a total where they're gonna

248
00:12:17,399 --> 00:12:19,080
get equal money on both sides.

249
00:12:19,320 --> 00:12:21,919
Speaker 2: There's people that just don't play totals in the seventies.

250
00:12:22,000 --> 00:12:23,399
So when you have a total that are in the

251
00:12:23,480 --> 00:12:26,639
high sixties, it likely should be in the seventies, but

252
00:12:26,679 --> 00:12:28,360
they don't need to put it in the seventies because

253
00:12:28,360 --> 00:12:31,080
they're getting equal money. Same thing on low totals. I

254
00:12:31,120 --> 00:12:34,120
did a video on Iowa, Wisconsin. It's thirty six. Some

255
00:12:34,159 --> 00:12:37,080
guys will never bet under low totals. But you know,

256
00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:39,120
I said to my video, oh my god, is this

257
00:12:39,159 --> 00:12:42,120
that Iowa team of twenty thirteen that averaged fifteen points

258
00:12:42,120 --> 00:12:44,679
per game? And there was a total of twenty nine

259
00:12:44,720 --> 00:12:46,840
that year, So you think thirty six is level. Let's

260
00:12:46,879 --> 00:12:48,320
think of back two years about Iowa.

261
00:12:48,799 --> 00:12:51,039
Speaker 3: Yeah, I was a textbook example. I think it was

262
00:12:51,039 --> 00:12:52,799
what two years ago, they were like ten and two

263
00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:55,519
to the under, and we're getting totals low thirties, high twenties.

264
00:12:55,519 --> 00:12:57,840
They're still going under and Ralph, one of the best

265
00:12:57,919 --> 00:12:59,759
charts you've ever sent me was for a baseball video

266
00:12:59,759 --> 00:13:01,120
couple years ago. I asked you to pull up the

267
00:13:01,200 --> 00:13:03,639
numbers under six and a half or less. This is

268
00:13:03,679 --> 00:13:06,440
about two seasons ago, and Ralph pointed out that on

269
00:13:06,519 --> 00:13:09,039
the blind eight of the previous nine years, if you'd

270
00:13:09,080 --> 00:13:10,720
played all under six and a halves or lower, you

271
00:13:10,720 --> 00:13:13,399
made money in Major League Baseball. So that's how powerful

272
00:13:13,399 --> 00:13:15,919
it can be at times to take a contrarian view

273
00:13:15,960 --> 00:13:17,120
with low and high totals.

274
00:13:18,639 --> 00:13:20,600
Speaker 1: Thank you, Corey, by the way for those kind words.

275
00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:22,360
This is a great show. I do say I would

276
00:13:22,399 --> 00:13:25,440
agree with that. So all right, one thing too about

277
00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:28,039
the total and the South Florida North Texas. I don't

278
00:13:28,039 --> 00:13:30,279
know if you guys caught the end of South Florida's

279
00:13:30,279 --> 00:13:33,759
game last week against Charlotte. I could not believe that

280
00:13:33,840 --> 00:13:38,679
they were running up tempo, hurry up to something. Tells

281
00:13:38,679 --> 00:13:41,000
me they knew the spread because they got that late

282
00:13:41,039 --> 00:13:43,519
touchdown to get the cash there laid at the game.

283
00:13:43,679 --> 00:13:47,480
That was crazy. That was I was laughing. I mean

284
00:13:47,480 --> 00:13:49,639
they were hiking the ball. There were still thirty seconds

285
00:13:49,720 --> 00:13:50,519
left on the play clock.

286
00:13:50,559 --> 00:13:51,080
Speaker 3: They were hiking.

287
00:13:51,080 --> 00:13:51,759
Speaker 1: It was unbelievable.

288
00:13:51,759 --> 00:13:53,320
Speaker 3: And that's really something to pay attention to. I mean,

289
00:13:53,320 --> 00:13:54,679
we've all been around for a while. Remember in the

290
00:13:54,799 --> 00:13:57,200
nineties Bill Snyder with Kansas State when I was starting

291
00:13:57,240 --> 00:13:59,759
back from the mid to late nineties, he would put

292
00:13:59,759 --> 00:14:02,000
guys back in to score a late touchdown and they

293
00:14:02,000 --> 00:14:04,519
would cover the forty point spread, the thirty point spread.

294
00:14:04,559 --> 00:14:05,919
So it's something to keep an eye on. He's a

295
00:14:05,919 --> 00:14:06,960
third year coach as well.

296
00:14:08,080 --> 00:14:10,679
Speaker 1: Yes, and so we've got a lot of questions coming.

297
00:14:10,759 --> 00:14:12,440
Let's go back to our rundown guys. We've got a

298
00:14:12,480 --> 00:14:16,159
lot of questions, multiple questions. Jacob Hefner is here. He's

299
00:14:16,399 --> 00:14:18,519
got his eye on a couple home dogs. One of

300
00:14:18,519 --> 00:14:23,559
them is Missouri. Sean Burley. He is asking about Missouri

301
00:14:23,679 --> 00:14:26,320
and Bama as well. Quote, why does it seem everyone

302
00:14:26,360 --> 00:14:28,720
has written this game off as a w for Bama.

303
00:14:29,200 --> 00:14:34,320
I don't get the opening line at all. So let's

304
00:14:34,399 --> 00:14:39,879
talk Alabama Missouri noon East or noon Eastern time. I

305
00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:42,679
talked about this game on the midweek edition of the

306
00:14:42,720 --> 00:14:45,559
Power Five. I think we would all agree it's not

307
00:14:45,679 --> 00:14:48,799
a great spot for the Crimson Tide. They you know,

308
00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:51,559
obviously got the back door cover last week against Vanderbilt

309
00:14:51,600 --> 00:14:54,639
talking about teams punching it in late and Missouri's coming

310
00:14:54,679 --> 00:14:58,679
off of bye. But I asked the question, Steve Merrill,

311
00:14:58,919 --> 00:15:03,440
who exactly has Missouri played not? It's a real rogues

312
00:15:03,480 --> 00:15:07,000
gallery of opponents so far. The toughest team they beat

313
00:15:07,039 --> 00:15:08,720
was Kansas. They were losing in that game. Now, I

314
00:15:08,759 --> 00:15:11,120
was a deserved win when you open the box score,

315
00:15:11,720 --> 00:15:15,519
But the Missouri is typically I look at the spot,

316
00:15:15,519 --> 00:15:17,559
Missouri is a team if you follow me, Missouri is

317
00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:19,960
a team that I would usually bet on in this spot.

318
00:15:20,039 --> 00:15:23,159
I'm not You talked about power rating, Steve. I'll tell

319
00:15:23,159 --> 00:15:25,799
you my power ratings disagree with this line move. I

320
00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:29,000
have Alabama rated number two in the country. Missouri barely

321
00:15:29,039 --> 00:15:30,279
cracks my top twenty five.

322
00:15:31,000 --> 00:15:32,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, Brian, you and I have won consistently in college

323
00:15:33,000 --> 00:15:35,080
football for decades. I think we do things a lot

324
00:15:35,080 --> 00:15:36,480
in the same way. And I'm with you on this one.

325
00:15:36,519 --> 00:15:38,639
I did a standalone video for this last night. Of course,

326
00:15:38,679 --> 00:15:40,799
it's going to be a part of my college football

327
00:15:40,840 --> 00:15:42,840
Top twenty five video which I'm doing later today for

328
00:15:42,879 --> 00:15:46,279
this weekend. And I'm conflicted on this game. My ten

329
00:15:46,320 --> 00:15:49,240
thousand game simulation has Alabama by five. So I do

330
00:15:49,279 --> 00:15:51,039
think the line's a little cheap now that it's down

331
00:15:51,039 --> 00:15:53,799
to that key number of three. But I agree the

332
00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:57,519
situation looks better for Missouri here. You pointed out some

333
00:15:57,600 --> 00:15:59,080
of the reasons. First of all, they're coming off the

334
00:15:59,080 --> 00:16:01,799
bye week, live home dog, off a bye week in

335
00:16:01,919 --> 00:16:05,000
BAMA letdown spot after Vanderbilt. What's possible. I mean, they

336
00:16:05,039 --> 00:16:06,600
had the big win at Georgia and then they had

337
00:16:06,600 --> 00:16:09,720
the huge revenge game last week against Bandy. This is

338
00:16:09,759 --> 00:16:11,360
not a great spot at oh By the way, They've

339
00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:14,600
got Tennessee on deck next week. I just don't know

340
00:16:14,679 --> 00:16:16,559
for sure though either, if Missouri is for real, if

341
00:16:16,559 --> 00:16:18,240
you look at what they've done, even in factoring in

342
00:16:18,279 --> 00:16:21,559
their weaker schedule, it's been pretty impressive this year. Statistically,

343
00:16:21,559 --> 00:16:24,240
they're holding teams to fourteen and a half points three

344
00:16:24,279 --> 00:16:27,399
point nine yards per play. Those teams have averaged five

345
00:16:27,440 --> 00:16:31,399
point five overall. Bama's averaging about six point seven though,

346
00:16:31,639 --> 00:16:34,919
and a huge step up in pass class. Missouri's faced

347
00:16:34,919 --> 00:16:37,320
teams at average about seven point two. Bama's throwing for

348
00:16:37,399 --> 00:16:40,360
nine point two interty've aout Alabama. They're getting amost seventy

349
00:16:40,399 --> 00:16:42,320
seventy five percent of their total yards through the air

350
00:16:42,399 --> 00:16:45,600
this year. They're a pass based offense. Missouri has been

351
00:16:45,639 --> 00:16:48,000
extremely strong against the run and the pass, but they've

352
00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:50,639
faced a much weaker schedule. You know what I used

353
00:16:50,639 --> 00:16:52,600
in the video. I actually used the total here, and

354
00:16:52,679 --> 00:16:54,559
I'm not in love with this, but I used under

355
00:16:54,919 --> 00:16:57,679
fifty one and a half. Fifty two. Fifty one is

356
00:16:57,720 --> 00:17:01,200
a very key number. Both defenses have been strong, both

357
00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:03,720
offenses not quite as strong as the opposing defense is.

358
00:17:03,759 --> 00:17:05,240
I'd probably lean on here, but this is a tough

359
00:17:05,279 --> 00:17:06,839
call for me for some of the reasons you mentioned

360
00:17:06,839 --> 00:17:07,720
as well.

361
00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:10,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, Ralph, so we've seem we kind of have some

362
00:17:10,519 --> 00:17:15,680
conflict here between situation and power ratings. Do the trends

363
00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:17,680
say anything on this game for you?

364
00:17:18,839 --> 00:17:21,960
Speaker 2: And Brian? Let me say two things. I have Alabama

365
00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:24,440
as my number two power rated team, and I make

366
00:17:24,480 --> 00:17:28,599
Alabama a six point favorite. I think the noon start

367
00:17:28,640 --> 00:17:31,799
helps Alabama. These kids like to get fired up and drunk,

368
00:17:31,839 --> 00:17:33,920
and these night games are much tougher in the SEC

369
00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:35,799
than they are day games. We'll talk about that with

370
00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:38,039
LSU coming up in a little bit as well. So

371
00:17:38,119 --> 00:17:40,799
I think that favors Bama. The scheduling, the spot as

372
00:17:40,799 --> 00:17:43,400
you said off of you massing off a bye. That

373
00:17:43,480 --> 00:17:46,519
means Missouri had three weeks to work on this game.

374
00:17:46,960 --> 00:17:50,480
Alabama has had six days. They could not look past Georgia.

375
00:17:50,599 --> 00:17:53,920
They could not look past Vanderbilt. The prep time is amazing.

376
00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:58,000
But let me quantify for you, guys. Missouri is the

377
00:17:58,079 --> 00:18:01,640
number one best statistical team in the country. They are

378
00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:05,319
plus one. They are plus three hundred and forty three

379
00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:08,680
yards per game. That's not their offense. That's what their

380
00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:11,720
offense averages more than their defense allows three hundred and

381
00:18:11,759 --> 00:18:15,720
forty three yards. But everyone hold up if they know

382
00:18:15,799 --> 00:18:19,240
how many FBS teams there are this year, one hundred

383
00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:24,079
and thirty six. Missouri's strength of schedule is number one

384
00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:29,559
hundred and fifty. Alabama is number four. Why one fifty?

385
00:18:29,759 --> 00:18:33,400
I do like using Sagarin for the strength of schedules

386
00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:36,759
because it shows you that how many FCS teams have

387
00:18:36,839 --> 00:18:41,000
actually played a tougher schedule than Missouri, because if you're last,

388
00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:43,799
you might be two hundred last if you just use

389
00:18:43,839 --> 00:18:45,599
the FBS numbers. So I do want to reach out

390
00:18:45,640 --> 00:18:49,119
and say that. But while it's it's very impressive that

391
00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:52,119
Missouri is number one in yards per game diff it's

392
00:18:52,279 --> 00:18:56,079
much more impressive that Alabama is number eighteen in yards

393
00:18:56,079 --> 00:18:59,000
per game diff with the number four schedule. So to me,

394
00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:03,279
Alabama is actually, comparing the strength of schedule the number

395
00:19:03,319 --> 00:19:07,319
one most dominant statistical team in college football, even with

396
00:19:07,400 --> 00:19:10,480
the Buckeyes having their number one defense. But there are

397
00:19:10,480 --> 00:19:14,079
two reasons why I am not playing this game, Brian,

398
00:19:14,279 --> 00:19:16,880
and you asked about the trends, let me share them

399
00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:24,160
with you. When you have a conference home dog off

400
00:19:24,160 --> 00:19:27,440
the home game with at least four straight wins, so

401
00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:31,640
a conference dog, they have been playing well. Those teams

402
00:19:31,680 --> 00:19:35,759
are twenty seven and six eighty one percent against the spread.

403
00:19:37,000 --> 00:19:41,359
And from game four on, if you have a favorite

404
00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:45,279
that has allowed six point five yards per carrier more

405
00:19:46,599 --> 00:19:52,119
eighteen wins and sixty losses, that is a seventy seven

406
00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:54,799
percent fade. And you might be thinking, what the hell

407
00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:57,960
am I talking about. There's no way Bama gave that up. Well,

408
00:19:57,960 --> 00:20:01,960
guess what. Against Georgia they allowed two twenty seven and

409
00:20:02,119 --> 00:20:06,599
six point nine rushing, Against Vanderbilt they allowed seven point

410
00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:10,720
one yards rushing. And let's remember against Florida State they

411
00:20:10,759 --> 00:20:13,759
allowed two hundred thirty yards rushing. Oh yeah, by the way,

412
00:20:14,039 --> 00:20:20,000
Missouri has the countries leading rusher and Amad Hardy seven

413
00:20:20,079 --> 00:20:23,039
hundred thirty yards per game, seven point one yards per carry.

414
00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:31,519
Situation says Missouri. My Power ratings say Alabama statistical profile

415
00:20:31,680 --> 00:20:34,640
up in the air because we're not sure. I lean Missouri,

416
00:20:34,680 --> 00:20:37,200
but cannot bet them until they prove they can handle

417
00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:38,200
this type of competition.

418
00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:42,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, Ralph, just a simple trend that kept

419
00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:45,039
me off the Bama's side was this as a road favorite.

420
00:20:45,039 --> 00:20:46,599
The last twenty times they've been a road for They're

421
00:20:46,599 --> 00:20:48,720
only seven to thirteen against the number and they fail. Obviously,

422
00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:51,160
those are some big numbers. They failed to cover by

423
00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:53,160
quite a bit. I think they're two and five ats

424
00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:54,160
the last seven times.

425
00:20:54,359 --> 00:20:56,519
Speaker 2: But if we look at how many are three or less, Brian,

426
00:20:56,599 --> 00:20:59,960
it changes the whole va. My points at Vanderbilts.

427
00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:02,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, exactly. So, Yeah, this is a bit of

428
00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:05,599
a different Obviously a pretty cheap line there, So hopefully

429
00:21:05,599 --> 00:21:07,160
that helped you out. Guys. I know that there is

430
00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:09,200
some conflict there. I think the three of us, though,

431
00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:12,200
are in agreement that this line from a Power Ratings perspective,

432
00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:15,240
is a little short. Let's go back to the chat.

433
00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:19,440
Speaker 2: That's what makes this show so good. We don't always

434
00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:21,720
try to give you best bets. We just break down

435
00:21:21,759 --> 00:21:24,279
the game in our opinions. It's you that has to

436
00:21:24,279 --> 00:21:27,359
make the determination, taking all that information to either play

437
00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:29,599
the game or pass. I know a lot of shows

438
00:21:29,599 --> 00:21:31,400
say I agree, I agree, I agree, and you think,

439
00:21:31,400 --> 00:21:33,480
oh my god, it's a great play because all three agree.

440
00:21:33,839 --> 00:21:35,599
I mean, these are games that may not be on

441
00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:38,200
any of our cards. So if we don't have anything strong,

442
00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:39,920
we don't bullshit you and say, oh my god, this

443
00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:42,599
is a best bet. It's for you to determine. And

444
00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:45,839
again that's what makes the Blitz the best college football show.

445
00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:48,480
Speaker 1: There is, absolutely and we will all have best bets

446
00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:50,920
coming up, of course, at the end of the program

447
00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:53,599
here today, so stay tuned for that. I do want

448
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:55,240
to return to the chat before we get our run down.

449
00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:56,799
There is a game I really want to talk about,

450
00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:00,519
and let me tell you something. Okay, you could put

451
00:22:00,599 --> 00:22:03,440
Dan Mullen's face right next to Bernie made off on

452
00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:07,720
the fraud list because this UNLV team what they continue

453
00:22:07,799 --> 00:22:09,759
to get away with week in week out. And yeah,

454
00:22:09,799 --> 00:22:12,599
I'm a little salty because I had Wyoming last week. Okay,

455
00:22:12,799 --> 00:22:15,559
I saw the snow falling Steve and Laramie. It was

456
00:22:15,599 --> 00:22:17,359
our first snow game with the art. I said, oh

457
00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:20,079
my god, these kids from that school in Las Vegas

458
00:22:20,079 --> 00:22:21,519
aren't gonna be able to deal with that snow. Well,

459
00:22:21,559 --> 00:22:27,400
guess what, Wyoming had not just one, but two punts

460
00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:30,119
blocked and returned for touchdown. I would like to ask

461
00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:31,839
you two. You guys have seen a little bit, maybe

462
00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:34,359
more football than I have through the years. Name the

463
00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:36,839
last time you've seen a team have two punt blocks

464
00:22:37,079 --> 00:22:40,279
returns for touchdown in the same game. I couldn't remember one.

465
00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:43,039
I'm sure it's happened, but I couldn't remember it. It

466
00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:43,759
was absurd.

467
00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:47,200
Speaker 3: Not when it's a single digit points spread. It was

468
00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:48,839
like around four and a half. I mean yeah, I

469
00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:50,759
mean maybe if it's a forty point spread. You know,

470
00:22:50,799 --> 00:22:54,599
you just see everything happen. You see annihilation two really

471
00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:56,759
bad defensive teams. That's the first day it jumps out

472
00:22:56,799 --> 00:22:59,079
to me in this game. UNLB, by the way, playing

473
00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:01,480
air Force for those that are joining this, and of

474
00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:04,000
course when you play air Force, it's about stopping the run,

475
00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:06,000
and that's really all you have to do against the

476
00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:08,559
triple option. And we'll look at UNLB stats on the season,

477
00:23:08,559 --> 00:23:10,559
they've been terrible against the run. They've actually been good

478
00:23:10,559 --> 00:23:13,440
against the pass six point six against teams at average

479
00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:16,079
six point eight against the run five point two against

480
00:23:16,079 --> 00:23:19,279
teams at averages four point five. And Air Force, as

481
00:23:19,319 --> 00:23:21,640
all these military academies do, they basically run for a

482
00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:24,839
ton of yards. Although with that said, Air Force does

483
00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:26,960
throw the ball a little bit more than in year's past,

484
00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:29,640
and more than Army and Navies throwing. Air Force runs

485
00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:32,359
about forty nine times a game. They throw about seventeen

486
00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:35,880
two hundred and forty six rushing two twenty one passing.

487
00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:38,640
I don't ever remember a service academy that's been that

488
00:23:38,759 --> 00:23:42,160
balance as far as yardage. So I think if UNLB

489
00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:45,079
struggles to stop the run, which they will, could open

490
00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:47,319
up some big plays passing wise. And by the way,

491
00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:50,279
Air Force five and zero to the over this season,

492
00:23:50,599 --> 00:23:52,000
and part of that reason is because they do have

493
00:23:52,039 --> 00:23:54,440
a little bit more of a passing attack. I would

494
00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:56,599
like the up and over in this one. Check the

495
00:23:56,599 --> 00:24:00,000
odds logic screen. The total is currently around sixty four

496
00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:02,680
and a half sixty five the bigger totals on the board,

497
00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:04,680
and you'll be a seven point favorite. I would lean

498
00:24:04,759 --> 00:24:05,720
Air Force plus seven.

499
00:24:06,559 --> 00:24:09,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would. I want to take the points. Obviously

500
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:12,119
very bad because look it's not just UNLV with the

501
00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:15,400
block punts. Last week in Laramie they were they were

502
00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:19,480
out game by Idaho State and FCS team. The Miami game,

503
00:24:19,759 --> 00:24:22,079
they were losing in the fourth quarter, then literally every

504
00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:24,599
single player in Miami started getting hurt. It was unbelievable.

505
00:24:24,599 --> 00:24:25,960
I didn't think they were going to finish the twenty two

506
00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:29,359
guys in that game, and UNLV still barely won. I

507
00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:31,000
really want to get to the window with the Air Force,

508
00:24:31,039 --> 00:24:32,599
but Steve brought up some good points and the reason

509
00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:35,279
why I'm probably not going to get to the window

510
00:24:35,279 --> 00:24:37,200
at air Force this week. I may. I'm thinking about it.

511
00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:39,319
I'll be honest with you, is that is the defense.

512
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:43,160
It's awful. They can't stop a nosebleed. I mean, so

513
00:24:43,480 --> 00:24:46,200
ULV is gonna put up points. Yeah, this does. Ralph,

514
00:24:46,279 --> 00:24:48,640
we just talked about it with that South Florida North

515
00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:51,759
Texas game, betting to high totals to go over. This

516
00:24:51,799 --> 00:24:52,680
is another high total.

517
00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:58,599
Speaker 2: Talk about service academies, but Steve, talk to these are

518
00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:01,559
not your father service academy. You know, against Navy they

519
00:25:01,559 --> 00:25:03,839
threw twenty times they ran the ball tis you know,

520
00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:07,960
forty times. So I am to the window with air Force.

521
00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:11,799
I do not trust you ANDLV. You look at air

522
00:25:11,839 --> 00:25:14,440
Forces rush, you know, yes they're passing more, but they're

523
00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:17,319
still averaging five point zero yards per carry. When I

524
00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:20,839
look at UNLV, this is a team on defense that

525
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:26,680
they haven't given up massive rush yards, but they're giving

526
00:25:26,759 --> 00:25:30,319
up massive yards overall, and they're allowing five point two

527
00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:34,119
yards per carry. They've had no sacks the last two games.

528
00:25:34,759 --> 00:25:38,759
You have a pass rush that statistically are good, but

529
00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:41,519
you look at the offenses of Idaho State, Sam Houston,

530
00:25:41,519 --> 00:25:44,920
Miami of Ohio, and Wyoming and they're horrible. I mentioned

531
00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:48,440
this couple weeks ago. Guys, remember teams playing in the

532
00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:52,400
altitude of Wyoming. It's over seven thousand feet. They are

533
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:56,400
only a twenty three percent ats play the next week

534
00:25:56,680 --> 00:25:59,759
if they have if they don't have a bye week.

535
00:26:00,079 --> 00:26:02,920
So coming off a road trip to Miami back to

536
00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:06,400
Wyoming now having the pressure of air Force as a

537
00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:09,720
home favorite. Oh yeah, by the way, you may have

538
00:26:09,759 --> 00:26:12,720
the Mountain West title game. I'm deck with Boise State.

539
00:26:12,799 --> 00:26:15,240
We're not to travel to Boise next week. I do

540
00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:15,799
like air.

541
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:20,319
Speaker 1: Force we've got some people. Hold on one second, that

542
00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:23,359
was the wrong one. UNLV. Some people think that they

543
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:25,960
look I guess they are the Mountain West's only chance

544
00:26:26,839 --> 00:26:29,880
at a playoff spot. I don't think they get there, though.

545
00:26:30,079 --> 00:26:32,839
I think ULB's going to slip up. I think the

546
00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:36,839
American gets the playoff spot. All right, we've kind of

547
00:26:36,839 --> 00:26:38,720
at the middle of the show here, guys, and guess what.

548
00:26:38,759 --> 00:26:42,400
We have an incredible special offer to tell you about

549
00:26:42,759 --> 00:26:46,759
here for the weekend. Good for all of us, and

550
00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:50,440
Ross Benjamin as well, Ross get Willson. We think Ross

551
00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:52,359
could be returning to the program next week. We of

552
00:26:52,359 --> 00:26:55,720
course thanks Steve for sitting in here with Ralph and I.

553
00:26:56,240 --> 00:26:58,599
But there is a coupon that we are going to

554
00:26:58,599 --> 00:27:01,279
talk to you about right now. The coupon code is

555
00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:06,200
twenty five blitz. That is two to five blitz and

556
00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:08,000
that coupon code what does it do. It'll get you

557
00:27:08,079 --> 00:27:11,480
twenty five percent off our college football season any one

558
00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:13,960
of our college football season packages, any one of our

559
00:27:14,039 --> 00:27:18,759
NFL season packages, or the College Football NFL Combo Season package.

560
00:27:18,799 --> 00:27:22,240
This deal is good through Sunday night. You could save

561
00:27:22,279 --> 00:27:25,279
over one hundred and twenty dollars on any of our

562
00:27:25,279 --> 00:27:27,759
college football season packages. Get that for three hundred and

563
00:27:27,759 --> 00:27:31,400
eighty one dollars. That's fourteen full weeks of college football

564
00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:34,559
for only twenty seven dollars per week. With the combo package,

565
00:27:34,599 --> 00:27:36,839
you could save over one hundred and eighty dollars, just

566
00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:40,160
under thirty three dollars per week for every football play

567
00:27:40,519 --> 00:27:44,640
college and the NFL. Steve, what do you got going

568
00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:47,759
on this weekend? It's a busy weekend obviously, not just

569
00:27:47,759 --> 00:27:50,039
college football, not just NFL, but the Major League Baseball

570
00:27:50,039 --> 00:27:50,720
plaoffs as well.

571
00:27:51,079 --> 00:27:53,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a great special code if you want football.

572
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:55,519
There's also some great all sports packages. We got the

573
00:27:55,519 --> 00:27:59,319
baseball playoffs going. We're seventy five percent this postseason. NBA

574
00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:02,000
starts in less in two weeks. In less than two weeks,

575
00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:05,799
the NBA season starts college basketball right after that. So

576
00:28:05,839 --> 00:28:08,279
if you want a football special use that twenty five blitz.

577
00:28:08,279 --> 00:28:10,200
If you won an all sport all access there's no

578
00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:13,000
promo code needed. We have a seven day sampler right

579
00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:15,839
now for seventy seven also a buy three months, get

580
00:28:15,839 --> 00:28:18,240
the fourth month for free, or the best deal right

581
00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:20,279
now the rest of twenty twenty five, next two and

582
00:28:20,279 --> 00:28:23,440
a half months for free when you buy twenty twenty six.

583
00:28:23,799 --> 00:28:26,359
All those details on my page, along with daily free plays,

584
00:28:26,400 --> 00:28:28,960
including an advanced NFL play for this Sunday right now

585
00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:31,640
on my page. Steve Merrill Wager talk dot com and

586
00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:34,480
get there quicker with that cute shortcut you see on

587
00:28:34,519 --> 00:28:37,640
the screen there WT dot buzz slash sm look at

588
00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:41,359
the what I don't know that's not Aerial or Times Newman.

589
00:28:41,519 --> 00:28:44,759
That's that's sassy. We have. That's a sassy, fun, incredible

590
00:28:44,759 --> 00:28:47,559
production team here on the Blitz. We spared Alexander getting

591
00:28:47,559 --> 00:28:50,359
sassy with the fond. I mean, this guy's unbelievable, the

592
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:51,039
things he could do.

593
00:28:52,359 --> 00:28:55,079
Speaker 1: Raw, Ralph, talk to me what you've got going on

594
00:28:55,119 --> 00:28:55,960
this weekend.

595
00:28:57,960 --> 00:28:58,079
Speaker 3: Thing?

596
00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:01,519
Speaker 2: A great promo, Brian, you were very professional explaining that.

597
00:29:01,680 --> 00:29:05,599
Thank you. I want to say first, I had a

598
00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:08,119
crappy college football week. Guys, it's going to happen. I

599
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:10,039
lost a five percent on Friday, I went one on

600
00:29:10,119 --> 00:29:13,759
three on Saturday. But I remind people of the old

601
00:29:13,759 --> 00:29:16,440
Patriots days with Belichick and Brady. When you have a

602
00:29:16,519 --> 00:29:19,319
quality service coming off a loss, you usually want to

603
00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:21,640
jump on him the next week. It's always, you know,

604
00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:24,839
Steve says, don't catch a falling knife. But again, if

605
00:29:24,839 --> 00:29:27,359
it's only one losing week, I feel that is a

606
00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:30,920
great time to jump on college football. Still twenty seven

607
00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:35,160
and fourteen sixty six percent including last week NFL in

608
00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:39,000
college football plays four percent and five percent thirty seven

609
00:29:39,039 --> 00:29:43,680
and sixteen seventy percent. I will have an NFL five percent.

610
00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:47,960
Those are six and one eighty six percent and NFL

611
00:29:48,039 --> 00:29:51,640
teasers rated four percent and five percent sixteen and three

612
00:29:52,119 --> 00:29:58,240
eighty four percent twenty five glitz. Save that or remember

613
00:29:58,279 --> 00:29:59,640
if you just want to try us out for the

614
00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:03,319
week the Weekend Warriors still in effect. My five percent

615
00:30:03,359 --> 00:30:07,640
on Sunday thirty five dollars The Weekend Warrior just fourteen

616
00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:10,599
dollars more for all of Saturday college football and all

617
00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:14,319
of Sunday NFL plus any bonus Monday night NFL plays.

618
00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:18,240
Speaker 1: And I will note that my college football card currently

619
00:30:18,319 --> 00:30:21,440
five plays for Saturday, is posted at wt dot buzz

620
00:30:21,519 --> 00:30:24,440
slash BP. Over the last week, guys, we have cash

621
00:30:24,559 --> 00:30:28,480
not one, but two five percent plays. Told you last

622
00:30:28,519 --> 00:30:30,839
week it was my biggest college football player of the season.

623
00:30:31,279 --> 00:30:34,359
On Saturday, we cashed it with Cincinnati money line against

624
00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:38,640
Iowa State. Of course, because Scott's Saderfield. You know, I

625
00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:41,359
was so kind to you, Dad, and that's the thanks

626
00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:41,839
I get.

627
00:30:42,440 --> 00:30:43,279
Speaker 3: Unbelievable.

628
00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:46,559
Speaker 1: Anyway, Yeah, well, you know what I'm gonna bring You

629
00:30:46,599 --> 00:30:48,039
know what, Dad, I'm gonna bring up the fact that

630
00:30:48,119 --> 00:30:50,640
I had Cincinnati over Iowa State again now. But you know, look,

631
00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:53,599
because it with Scott's Saderfield coaching Cincinnati, of course, it

632
00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:55,759
couldn't be easy. They're up thirty one to seven, thank

633
00:30:55,799 --> 00:30:57,640
you very much. They're up thirty one to seven in

634
00:30:57,680 --> 00:30:59,359
the first half, and I have to hold on for

635
00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:02,079
dear life. Speaking of holding on for dear life, ay

636
00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:04,920
yea yi last night, thank you for everyone who joined

637
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:07,839
me for Cubs. I know this is a college football program.

638
00:31:08,079 --> 00:31:10,160
We did have a five percent on the Cubs in

639
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:12,599
the Major League Baseball playoffs, and to say that I

640
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:14,319
was watching the last six innings of that game with

641
00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:15,880
my head down would be putting it mildly.

642
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:16,599
Speaker 3: I knew.

643
00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:19,599
Speaker 1: I made peace with the fact very early, Ralph and

644
00:31:19,640 --> 00:31:21,279
Steve the Cubs were not going to score it after

645
00:31:21,319 --> 00:31:25,000
the first inning, and thankfully four runs was enough. I said,

646
00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:28,200
Quinn Priester would stink, and he's stunk. But guess what

647
00:31:28,279 --> 00:31:30,200
they took him out after two outs, so we didn't

648
00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:32,240
get any more of him, but still two five percent

649
00:31:32,279 --> 00:31:35,000
wins the last week w T Dot Buzz Slash, b

650
00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:40,319
P and Jeffrey. You know, Jay Buff, I hope you're

651
00:31:40,359 --> 00:31:46,000
not referring to my shirt here, my better shirts quite frankly,

652
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:48,400
you know, Jay Buff, I'm gonna push your question at

653
00:31:48,400 --> 00:31:50,200
the back of the line right now in the chat room.

654
00:31:50,079 --> 00:31:50,440
Speaker 3: After that.

655
00:31:58,200 --> 00:31:58,519
Speaker 1: Rash.

656
00:32:00,119 --> 00:32:03,559
Speaker 2: Wait, you know you you would expect Brian he's gonna

657
00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:06,359
I'm gonna bet his his best bet is the Minnesota

658
00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:08,640
Timberwolves are gonna come out with an axe over shoulder.

659
00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:13,920
Speaker 3: Was being nice. I didn't make the brawny towels reference

660
00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:16,240
or the lumberjack references, but it did cross my mind.

661
00:32:16,279 --> 00:32:19,279
I was trying not to pick on Brian, but so hard.

662
00:32:22,119 --> 00:32:25,880
Speaker 1: I think you guys know well enough. Never throw an

663
00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:27,640
X around. Actually that's a lie. I actually did.

664
00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:30,400
Speaker 3: God actually did extra on once al So it's harder

665
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:31,519
than it looks. It's harder to.

666
00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:36,160
Speaker 1: I was in Detroit, especially when even drinking. I cannot

667
00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:38,680
believe that that's allowed. That I can't believe that, Like

668
00:32:38,759 --> 00:32:41,039
I'm like, wait a minute, you're gonna I'm clearly been

669
00:32:41,079 --> 00:32:43,480
drinking for an hour. You're gonna let me throw this axe?

670
00:32:44,279 --> 00:32:46,480
Speaker 3: Crossed my mind was the insurance policy has to be

671
00:32:46,559 --> 00:32:48,480
pricey for this establishment. When I was in there.

672
00:32:49,039 --> 00:32:51,119
Speaker 2: I went to Detroit and went out with a Waiger

673
00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:55,480
Talk crew last year to ax throwing. Yes, I was drinking,

674
00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:59,240
and I think I had one axe stick. I mean

675
00:32:59,559 --> 00:33:03,319
it's hard, differ than you think. By ass it is difficult.

676
00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:05,880
So those people that you watch on those shows that

677
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:08,119
go like this and hit it every time, there's some

678
00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:09,039
skill involved there.

679
00:33:09,759 --> 00:33:13,039
Speaker 1: Yes, all right, enough about acts throwing, Enough about the

680
00:33:13,119 --> 00:33:15,799
Chicago Cubs, enough about my shirt. Quite frankly, let's get

681
00:33:16,119 --> 00:33:21,079
enough to the chat. Oh, Steve, all right, Colorado or Iowa.

682
00:33:21,240 --> 00:33:24,039
I believe that's Iowa State. That's because of Colorado is

683
00:33:24,119 --> 00:33:28,119
hosting Iowa. Say coach Prime, I just mentioned that he will.

684
00:33:28,200 --> 00:33:30,839
I believe his planning on returning to the sidelines. I

685
00:33:31,000 --> 00:33:34,880
talked about my five percent was fading Iowa State last week.

686
00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:37,880
I had been pretty critical of the cyclones on this

687
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:39,160
program the last couple of weeks.

688
00:33:39,519 --> 00:33:39,680
Speaker 3: There.

689
00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:41,680
Speaker 1: You got to tell you that guy preaking bench and

690
00:33:41,759 --> 00:33:42,599
I'll be honest with you.

691
00:33:45,200 --> 00:33:48,000
Speaker 3: By Brownie to super absorbent.

692
00:33:48,599 --> 00:33:53,839
Speaker 1: Unbelievable. I am absorbent. Thank you, Steve. Yes, yes, it

693
00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:56,160
would be Colorado or pass for me in this game.

694
00:33:56,240 --> 00:33:58,960
I I I continue to leave. Iowa State is woefully

695
00:33:59,119 --> 00:34:01,359
overrated again. They were down thirty one to seven in

696
00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:04,119
the first half to Cincinnati Grant. Colorado does not have

697
00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:07,319
anywhere near the offensive capabilities of the Maracats, but still

698
00:34:08,079 --> 00:34:10,239
in Boulder, it would be Colorado or pass for me

699
00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:10,760
on this game.

700
00:34:12,239 --> 00:34:14,400
Speaker 2: I you know, I really don't have much except this.

701
00:34:14,639 --> 00:34:17,440
I mean, it's much different than last year. Because if

702
00:34:17,519 --> 00:34:20,599
you were looking last year having to play at Cincinnati,

703
00:34:20,639 --> 00:34:22,639
a very physical team, and then going to the up

704
00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:25,320
Temple Buffalos in altitude, it would be one of the

705
00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:28,920
worst scheduling spots. But with no offense this year, you know,

706
00:34:29,280 --> 00:34:34,360
and Slater and Staw both both playing poorly, they are

707
00:34:34,480 --> 00:34:36,559
like one of the slowest paced teams. I mean, rarely

708
00:34:36,639 --> 00:34:38,199
do you see a team be a top ten team

709
00:34:38,280 --> 00:34:40,159
in pace you have the same coach. In the next

710
00:34:40,239 --> 00:34:42,800
year you're a bottom twenty team in pace. So I

711
00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:45,960
just point out that that system that I used to

712
00:34:46,039 --> 00:34:48,840
look to fade teams playing a second straight road game

713
00:34:48,920 --> 00:34:51,280
in Colorado, that not the situation this year.

714
00:34:52,480 --> 00:34:54,880
Speaker 1: All right, Jay buff you've waited long enough to spite

715
00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:58,199
you insulting my shirt. There. You did have some questions.

716
00:34:58,440 --> 00:35:00,679
Ask you about three games here.

717
00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:02,159
Speaker 2: That's getting greedy, isn't it.

718
00:35:02,760 --> 00:35:04,239
Speaker 1: It is? Hey, you don't get them all in it?

719
00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:05,840
Well you if you want get them all in one,

720
00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:07,800
see what happens. You know what, we can all take

721
00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:08,840
our pick though. That's great.

722
00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:09,400
Speaker 2: Uh.

723
00:35:10,079 --> 00:35:15,280
Speaker 1: He likes e CU, Purdue, and USC any opinions on

724
00:35:15,599 --> 00:35:20,280
any of these e CU that is tonight. I'll grab

725
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:22,280
that one, I think there. I think what's the other game,

726
00:35:22,320 --> 00:35:24,760
Brian Purdue in usc.

727
00:35:26,360 --> 00:35:28,519
Speaker 3: Playing USC Ralph. So I'll throw that one to you,

728
00:35:28,599 --> 00:35:29,880
and I can do Purdue if you want.

729
00:35:30,159 --> 00:35:30,920
Speaker 2: Well, let's just wait.

730
00:35:31,039 --> 00:35:33,800
Speaker 1: I'll do Purdue when you just hold off because I

731
00:35:33,920 --> 00:35:36,000
like that, I'll tell you that I love. I think

732
00:35:36,079 --> 00:35:38,280
USC is getting too many points against Tulaane. I make

733
00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:39,880
that get I think that's a pretty close game. The

734
00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:42,880
American a very interesting league. There's a clear top six

735
00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:45,159
and a clear bottom eight. E CU and two Lane

736
00:35:45,199 --> 00:35:46,559
are both in the top six. I think it's too

737
00:35:46,599 --> 00:35:48,960
many points for the Pirates tonight. I know they've played

738
00:35:49,239 --> 00:35:51,960
a weaker schedule than Tulane. Tulane's a hard place to

739
00:35:52,039 --> 00:35:54,599
win at. But still I would take I would take

740
00:35:55,039 --> 00:35:55,960
the six and a half.

741
00:35:56,119 --> 00:35:58,039
Speaker 3: Yeah, Brian, I will say I made a Tulane five

742
00:35:58,079 --> 00:36:01,239
in my simulation, so it's six and a half. Maybe

743
00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:02,800
wait to get that key number of seven. And by

744
00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:04,840
the way, real quick, Ralph. Ralph sent over to some

745
00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:07,559
of us privately today the NFL chart margins of victory.

746
00:36:07,679 --> 00:36:09,719
Very interesting to me that over the last three years

747
00:36:09,760 --> 00:36:12,199
has been just as many six point margin wins as

748
00:36:12,280 --> 00:36:15,199
seven point wins in the NFL, exactly the same the

749
00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:16,199
last four years.

750
00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:19,199
Speaker 2: So and you know what that is, Steve, all the

751
00:36:19,280 --> 00:36:21,719
new analytics with the young coaches, when they're down fourteen,

752
00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:23,599
they're going for two right away, so they're getting it

753
00:36:23,679 --> 00:36:26,760
to eight or six. And that's changed the dynamics completely

754
00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:27,880
over the last few seasons.

755
00:36:27,920 --> 00:36:30,079
Speaker 3: Yeah, because it made me think today, Ralph. You know,

756
00:36:30,159 --> 00:36:31,679
whenever you see a six and a half like this,

757
00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:33,320
you used to always say grab it. Now you don't

758
00:36:33,320 --> 00:36:35,320
want to risk it going to seven, even like Tulane.

759
00:36:35,360 --> 00:36:38,400
But nowadays it's almost like, wait and try to get

760
00:36:38,440 --> 00:36:40,719
that six because it's a double bonus. Whereas if with

761
00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:42,519
East Carolina you don't want to risk it going down

762
00:36:42,559 --> 00:36:44,440
to six now. But yeah, Ralph, I thought that was

763
00:36:44,519 --> 00:36:46,199
very interesting this morning when I was looking at that chart,

764
00:36:46,320 --> 00:36:49,280
that six and sevens are equal now, because when we

765
00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:51,000
were growing up, it was always three and seven and

766
00:36:51,039 --> 00:36:52,280
then maybe six afterwards.

767
00:36:52,679 --> 00:36:54,679
Speaker 2: And with the miss stextra point five all of a

768
00:36:54,719 --> 00:36:57,119
sudden is as relative as two ms, you know since

769
00:36:57,159 --> 00:36:59,920
twenty fifteen. Well, you know what we should add Brian

770
00:37:00,039 --> 00:37:01,920
and do the Minnesota Golden Golfers with them.

771
00:37:02,079 --> 00:37:04,559
Speaker 1: Oh, there we go, there we go there where Paul

772
00:37:04,599 --> 00:37:07,199
Bunyan's from. Yes, no one catch back in wanted to

773
00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:07,880
do ECU.

774
00:37:08,039 --> 00:37:09,800
Speaker 2: You didn't want us to tell any more jokes on that.

775
00:37:10,559 --> 00:37:13,199
I'll tell you what I do like Purdue. First off,

776
00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:18,559
Minnesota's defense. You know, Minnesota's offense against you can't you

777
00:37:18,679 --> 00:37:21,599
can't quantify. Okay, yes, they scored three points and they

778
00:37:21,599 --> 00:37:23,199
gained one hundred and sixty one yards, but it is

779
00:37:23,239 --> 00:37:26,119
Ohio State. But again, when they played Rutgers at home

780
00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:30,719
thirty one points, twenty first downs, at California nineteen first downs,

781
00:37:31,079 --> 00:37:34,079
they have not been able to substantiate any long drives.

782
00:37:34,360 --> 00:37:38,719
Now Purdue's defense has been poor, allowing five hundred each

783
00:37:38,760 --> 00:37:41,000
of the last two weeks, but again it was against

784
00:37:41,079 --> 00:37:44,519
Notre Dame and Illinois. But I have watched enough of

785
00:37:44,679 --> 00:37:48,199
the Purdue offense that I do like this team. They're

786
00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:52,159
averaging four hundred one yards per game. They're completing sixty

787
00:37:52,199 --> 00:37:54,519
two percent, which isn't great, but when you're talking Perdue,

788
00:37:54,599 --> 00:37:57,039
those numbers are like some of those previous perdus where

789
00:37:57,079 --> 00:38:02,119
they had some great wide receivers. They're rushing game has improved.

790
00:38:02,199 --> 00:38:04,719
It got very good against Illinois six point zero yards

791
00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:07,400
per Kerrie struggled against there name, but again that's a

792
00:38:07,480 --> 00:38:10,199
different story. I do think Purdue can keep this close

793
00:38:10,559 --> 00:38:12,320
and perhaps even pool the outright upset.

794
00:38:13,519 --> 00:38:16,159
Speaker 1: Okay, there you have it. That's a good looking lumberjack,

795
00:38:16,199 --> 00:38:17,840
by the way you saw on the screen. And stay

796
00:38:17,960 --> 00:38:22,360
tuned Jay Buff for a free pick on USC Michigan.

797
00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:25,360
That will be Steve's best bet coming up at the

798
00:38:25,519 --> 00:38:28,840
end of the show. Now, guys, normally I would not

799
00:38:29,320 --> 00:38:32,960
bring up Kent State versus U mass but we have

800
00:38:33,079 --> 00:38:35,519
had multiple questions on the chat. If I tried putting

801
00:38:35,559 --> 00:38:37,760
this in the show Rundown, I don't know what would

802
00:38:37,800 --> 00:38:40,760
smack me harder, the YouTube algorithm or Kelly Stewarts. But

803
00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:43,800
again we have two questions about it. And this see

804
00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:45,239
this is why I like the show, because we get

805
00:38:45,360 --> 00:38:49,239
questions on games of Kent State UMass. These are the

806
00:38:49,360 --> 00:38:52,159
bottom two ranked teams in my Power Rings at fts,

807
00:38:52,199 --> 00:38:57,280
the two worst teams in the entire FBS. It's homecoming weekend.

808
00:38:57,400 --> 00:39:00,639
We've learned a kent'sack party did Kent State University University,

809
00:39:00,920 --> 00:39:03,880
but it's a fun place. I'm gonna tell you what

810
00:39:04,000 --> 00:39:06,280
a guy who looks at the glass as being half

811
00:39:06,320 --> 00:39:08,199
empty would tell you who in the hell would lay

812
00:39:08,280 --> 00:39:10,920
points with Kent State. But a guy who looks at

813
00:39:10,960 --> 00:39:14,280
the glass half full, Steve Merrill would say, I only

814
00:39:14,360 --> 00:39:16,159
have to lay two and a half points against you, masks.

815
00:39:16,400 --> 00:39:18,559
Give me the golden flashes in this game. But this

816
00:39:18,719 --> 00:39:20,800
will probably at the very least, this will make the

817
00:39:20,840 --> 00:39:24,119
Power Weekend edition of the Power Five. A good friend

818
00:39:24,159 --> 00:39:26,559
of mine also his name is Brian, a Kent State alum.

819
00:39:26,880 --> 00:39:28,679
He has a Kent State over one and a half

820
00:39:28,760 --> 00:39:31,440
wins this season. I am rooting for you, buddy, because

821
00:39:31,480 --> 00:39:34,280
you need this one. Because other than Akron, it's either

822
00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:36,000
this or that to get two wins out of the season.

823
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:36,519
I don't know if either.

824
00:39:36,559 --> 00:39:39,719
Speaker 3: If you guys have a yeah, this a critical game

825
00:39:39,760 --> 00:39:41,440
for that one and a half season win ticket, to

826
00:39:41,480 --> 00:39:44,320
say the least. It's also a critical line two and

827
00:39:44,360 --> 00:39:46,360
a half threes mostly threes out there, but there are

828
00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:48,400
some two and a half still. If you like Kent State,

829
00:39:48,440 --> 00:39:49,840
you grab the two and a half. You don't play

830
00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:52,960
around with two and a half. Three, no matter. Sixes

831
00:39:53,000 --> 00:39:54,840
and sevens maybe are more equal now. Three is still

832
00:39:54,920 --> 00:39:57,559
king and all college and pro football. If you like

833
00:39:57,679 --> 00:39:59,760
U Mass you waiting to get three. There are some available.

834
00:40:00,039 --> 00:40:02,079
Favorite can't state over five points in this game with

835
00:40:02,199 --> 00:40:05,280
my seven thousand game simulation. My computer refused to run

836
00:40:05,320 --> 00:40:08,039
ten thousand simulations of this game. It's so bad. And

837
00:40:08,360 --> 00:40:09,719
by the way, what do we have one hundred and

838
00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:13,119
thirty six teams in college football? I rate these two

839
00:40:13,280 --> 00:40:15,440
one thirty two and one thirty four in offense, one

840
00:40:15,559 --> 00:40:17,920
thirty five and one thirty six on defense right now

841
00:40:17,960 --> 00:40:20,760
with my my ratings. So this is about as ugly

842
00:40:20,840 --> 00:40:24,360
as it gets. On a most serious note, William and Mary,

843
00:40:24,360 --> 00:40:26,199
of course still fcs U Mass used to be in

844
00:40:26,239 --> 00:40:28,239
the conference back in the days. They won a national

845
00:40:28,360 --> 00:40:31,599
title twenty some years ago. I'm hearing talk now that

846
00:40:31,719 --> 00:40:34,360
they might drop back down to FCS. That's how bad

847
00:40:34,400 --> 00:40:37,760
things are getting for the UMass football program and another team.

848
00:40:37,760 --> 00:40:39,880
I'd be very careful with this season for that reason,

849
00:40:40,119 --> 00:40:40,719
and we were going.

850
00:40:40,719 --> 00:40:42,920
Speaker 1: To welcome them with open arms into the mac Ralph.

851
00:40:44,079 --> 00:40:47,039
Speaker 3: Like I said, they're dropping the FC that's too easy.

852
00:40:47,800 --> 00:40:51,679
Speaker 2: This could be the biggest statistical difference in almost every

853
00:40:51,719 --> 00:40:57,000
game this season there. Massachusetts is minus two hundred two

854
00:40:57,119 --> 00:40:59,039
hundred eight yards per game, that is number one hundred

855
00:40:59,039 --> 00:41:01,840
and thirty five. Kent State is minus two hundred and

856
00:41:01,840 --> 00:41:03,840
forty five yards per game that is one thirty six.

857
00:41:04,159 --> 00:41:06,679
So not only are they last the bottom two in

858
00:41:06,719 --> 00:41:10,039
the FBS, but listen to this. Kent State has played

859
00:41:10,039 --> 00:41:14,559
the fifth toughest schedule. Massachusetts has played the seventy ninth schedule.

860
00:41:15,079 --> 00:41:18,239
Massive edge. For me, those stats being equal with a

861
00:41:18,360 --> 00:41:21,599
seventy four percent strength of schedule difference tells you Kent

862
00:41:21,679 --> 00:41:24,239
State should probably be a touchdown plus favorite. Oh yeah,

863
00:41:24,280 --> 00:41:26,960
By the way, these teams are also one hundred and

864
00:41:26,960 --> 00:41:30,920
twenty nine and one hundred and thirty one in plays

865
00:41:31,039 --> 00:41:35,800
per game their number. They're almost the two slowest paced teams,

866
00:41:36,039 --> 00:41:38,400
So you have to think under as well, because each

867
00:41:38,559 --> 00:41:40,199
is just going to try to run the ball, not

868
00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:41,719
make mistakes and he gotta win.

869
00:41:43,599 --> 00:41:47,039
Speaker 1: Mister ho if that is your real name, my free

870
00:41:47,119 --> 00:41:48,360
play at the end of the show will be on

871
00:41:48,639 --> 00:41:51,440
VYU versus Arizona, So State two for that. But we

872
00:41:51,480 --> 00:41:53,159
got a rundown. We get to you, guys, we have

873
00:41:53,280 --> 00:41:55,920
some We're gonna go from one end of the spectrum

874
00:41:56,039 --> 00:41:58,840
Ken State and newmass to the other. Let's talk Indiana

875
00:41:58,920 --> 00:42:01,199
in Oregon. This is a game that I talked about

876
00:42:01,239 --> 00:42:03,679
on the midweek edition of the Power Five. I said,

877
00:42:04,440 --> 00:42:07,239
Alabama Missouri. I do not agree with that line move

878
00:42:07,519 --> 00:42:10,800
this line move, guys, I do agree with I know

879
00:42:10,960 --> 00:42:13,400
Indiana struggled to step up in class last year against

880
00:42:13,400 --> 00:42:15,840
both Ohio State and Notre Dame, but that was last year.

881
00:42:16,119 --> 00:42:19,199
This Signetti has this team ready and Oregon, we all

882
00:42:19,239 --> 00:42:22,199
thought what a great win that was, going into Happy

883
00:42:22,320 --> 00:42:25,079
Valley and beating Penn State. Well that win doesn't look

884
00:42:25,079 --> 00:42:26,360
any good now? Is good?

885
00:42:26,519 --> 00:42:26,679
Speaker 3: Now?

886
00:42:26,800 --> 00:42:29,119
Speaker 1: Does it? After Penn State fell flat on their face

887
00:42:29,159 --> 00:42:33,039
and lost to UCLA. Not saying Indiana's live to win

888
00:42:33,079 --> 00:42:35,199
the game. I think it's too many points, guys. I

889
00:42:35,239 --> 00:42:39,639
would back the Hoosiers get in seven and a half. Steve,

890
00:42:39,800 --> 00:42:41,239
let me go to you for your thoughts.

891
00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:43,599
Speaker 3: Yeah, this open nine and a half. It's down to

892
00:42:43,719 --> 00:42:46,360
seven and a half, even seven now at some other

893
00:42:46,480 --> 00:42:49,199
spots right in the middle is my simulation. I've got

894
00:42:49,280 --> 00:42:51,079
Oregon by eight and a half. So it's pretty much

895
00:42:51,079 --> 00:42:54,559
spot on. I rate these as to top ten offenses

896
00:42:54,599 --> 00:42:58,199
and surprisingly two top ten defenses. And the one thing

897
00:42:58,239 --> 00:42:59,760
that did jump out to me in that Penn State

898
00:42:59,800 --> 00:43:02,599
game was how slow of the start. It was three

899
00:43:02,639 --> 00:43:04,119
to three in that game, and then you know, a

900
00:43:04,119 --> 00:43:07,159
little bit of offense in the second half. I too,

901
00:43:07,320 --> 00:43:09,280
I think Penn State a little bit of a paper line.

902
00:43:09,400 --> 00:43:12,480
No pun intended. Franklin obviously is so do we really

903
00:43:12,519 --> 00:43:15,079
read too much into that that win? By the way, Oregon,

904
00:43:15,400 --> 00:43:17,320
I forget if it's the coaches pallar of the app pole,

905
00:43:17,320 --> 00:43:19,360
they're getting like one first place vote in one of them.

906
00:43:19,440 --> 00:43:21,800
Texas A and M's getting one as well. I don't

907
00:43:21,840 --> 00:43:24,000
quite understand that. One thing that's really interesting about the

908
00:43:24,000 --> 00:43:26,239
two poles, I think there's exactly it's either sixty two

909
00:43:26,360 --> 00:43:29,559
or sixty six votes in both poles. Ohio State's getting

910
00:43:29,599 --> 00:43:31,039
the majority of the votes, but in one of them,

911
00:43:31,360 --> 00:43:33,760
Miami Florida's getting over twenty first place votes. They're only

912
00:43:33,800 --> 00:43:35,519
getting like three in the other one. I thought that

913
00:43:35,679 --> 00:43:38,519
was strange as well. It's Ohio state or passed for

914
00:43:38,599 --> 00:43:41,280
me right now. The look aheadline this summer, I believe

915
00:43:41,440 --> 00:43:44,880
was fourteen in this game, so it is a little

916
00:43:44,880 --> 00:43:47,239
bit of a discount. The one thing that jumps out

917
00:43:47,239 --> 00:43:49,280
to me, though, and I did a video this week

918
00:43:49,400 --> 00:43:52,320
for the Illinois game, and I talked about how bad

919
00:43:52,360 --> 00:43:55,280
Illinois lost to Indiana a couple of weeks ago. Seven

920
00:43:55,320 --> 00:43:57,480
point home favorite Indiana went sixty three to ten, and

921
00:43:57,519 --> 00:43:59,519
there was nothing misleading about that. There was only one

922
00:43:59,559 --> 00:44:03,440
turnover the game. Indiana had over five hundred and seventy

923
00:44:03,480 --> 00:44:06,960
total yards of offense. I've often said when you have

924
00:44:07,039 --> 00:44:09,679
two top ten offenses to top ten defenses, I usually

925
00:44:09,719 --> 00:44:11,920
feel like the offense is nowaday. Everyone always used to

926
00:44:11,960 --> 00:44:14,360
say defense beats good offenses back in the nineties in

927
00:44:14,400 --> 00:44:17,440
the two thousands, I don't think that's necessarily the case anymore.

928
00:44:17,519 --> 00:44:20,320
I really kind of start siding towards the good offenses,

929
00:44:20,360 --> 00:44:23,000
even when they're playing good defensive units. And this total

930
00:44:23,039 --> 00:44:26,239
is very modest at fifty five, I'd probably sprinkle a

931
00:44:26,280 --> 00:44:28,000
little in the over here. I think the side pretty

932
00:44:28,079 --> 00:44:30,440
much where it should be, but wouldn't be surprised to

933
00:44:30,440 --> 00:44:32,920
see some offense here. This Indiana offense is explosive. What

934
00:44:32,960 --> 00:44:34,800
they did to Illinois was really eye opening for me

935
00:44:34,840 --> 00:44:35,599
a couple of weeks ago.

936
00:44:37,000 --> 00:44:41,960
Speaker 1: Okay, Ralph, your turn here on Oregon Indiana certainly one

937
00:44:42,000 --> 00:44:43,199
of the marketing games on Saturday.

938
00:44:43,519 --> 00:44:46,039
Speaker 2: Well again, I like looking at yards per game diff

939
00:44:46,079 --> 00:44:50,239
on the season Indiana four, Oregon five, and the strength

940
00:44:50,239 --> 00:44:55,199
of schedule isn't huge. Oregon fifty nine, Indiana seventy two,

941
00:44:55,320 --> 00:44:59,039
so pretty close. So thirteen spots away, Indiana actually won

942
00:44:59,159 --> 00:45:03,239
better in yards per game. I actually do agree. I

943
00:45:03,320 --> 00:45:05,679
am not getting to the window in this and I

944
00:45:05,760 --> 00:45:07,320
do have a trend I want to share with you,

945
00:45:07,519 --> 00:45:10,639
which does lean Ore again. But my opinion is actually

946
00:45:10,719 --> 00:45:14,639
going to be Indiana. When you have two top ten

947
00:45:14,760 --> 00:45:20,119
teams with the line between the Nines, the home team

948
00:45:20,480 --> 00:45:23,000
is twenty five eleven and four against the spread. That's

949
00:45:23,039 --> 00:45:26,880
sixty nine percent. So what you know our Nines relatives, Well,

950
00:45:27,039 --> 00:45:30,440
seven's maybe more closely, but it's telling you you're you're

951
00:45:30,480 --> 00:45:35,000
basically competitively priced. No double digit favorite, so home teams

952
00:45:35,039 --> 00:45:37,920
with two top ten teams sixty nine percent against the

953
00:45:37,960 --> 00:45:42,440
spread and sixty three percent over under. Steve to lean

954
00:45:42,519 --> 00:45:46,880
with your under. It's taken me a while to drink

955
00:45:46,920 --> 00:45:50,320
the Signetti kool aid. And yes, I faded in last year,

956
00:45:50,840 --> 00:45:53,000
you know, in the playoffs when they went to Notre Dame,

957
00:45:53,480 --> 00:45:55,719
you know, and when they went to Ohio State, but

958
00:45:56,639 --> 00:45:58,639
just another year removed for what he did in his

959
00:45:58,719 --> 00:46:01,000
first season, and now with second season, he's building in

960
00:46:01,079 --> 00:46:03,400
this culture where I think they can keep this game

961
00:46:03,559 --> 00:46:04,039
very close.

962
00:46:04,800 --> 00:46:09,679
Speaker 1: Okay, there we go. I would concur with that, Steve

963
00:46:09,920 --> 00:46:12,400
in let's stay in the big ten here. Number one

964
00:46:12,440 --> 00:46:16,920
Ohio State taking on Illinois. Steve references game very interesting, Steve.

965
00:46:17,360 --> 00:46:19,599
I know Ralph obviously follows Ohio State very closely. I'm

966
00:46:19,599 --> 00:46:21,599
gonna throw it to you though. First, mister Mary, all

967
00:46:21,599 --> 00:46:24,119
the buck guys number one in the country and yards

968
00:46:24,159 --> 00:46:26,440
per play margin. We've been talking a lot about yards

969
00:46:26,480 --> 00:46:28,639
per play margin here on the show today. Ohio Stein's

970
00:46:28,679 --> 00:46:31,599
defense number one in the country, allowing just five points

971
00:46:31,599 --> 00:46:33,320
per game. You're gonna do well when you're giving up

972
00:46:33,360 --> 00:46:36,960
only five points per game, and quarterback Julian saying, well,

973
00:46:37,320 --> 00:46:40,679
he's completing over eighty percent of his passes. That two

974
00:46:41,440 --> 00:46:43,719
is number one in the country. And yet you know,

975
00:46:44,000 --> 00:46:45,559
there's a lot of talk as this team as good

976
00:46:45,559 --> 00:46:47,800
as we thought. Obviously, Penn State and Texas are not

977
00:46:48,119 --> 00:46:50,559
anywhere near as good as we thought. We're wondering as

978
00:46:50,599 --> 00:46:53,039
Alabama gonna get up tip. Not a lot of people

979
00:46:53,159 --> 00:46:56,159
talking about the buck guys, the reigning national champions. Here

980
00:46:56,440 --> 00:46:59,960
they are laying to just north of two touchdowns against Illino,

981
00:47:00,280 --> 00:47:03,159
and Illinois team that you referenced earlier got run off

982
00:47:03,239 --> 00:47:06,920
the field at Indiana, that was at Indiana, though this

983
00:47:07,000 --> 00:47:11,079
game is in Champagne Orbanta. Do we think maybe Illinois

984
00:47:11,119 --> 00:47:12,800
could keep this one close at home?

985
00:47:13,599 --> 00:47:16,000
Speaker 3: Always gonna be careful using the transitive property because you

986
00:47:16,000 --> 00:47:18,039
always get the six degrees of Kevin Bacon. But this

987
00:47:18,239 --> 00:47:20,559
is an early game at noon eastern. If Illinois wins

988
00:47:20,639 --> 00:47:23,519
this game somehow is a two touchdown dog and looks

989
00:47:23,599 --> 00:47:26,039
good doing it, then do we really start to load

990
00:47:26,159 --> 00:47:28,159
up on Indiana at three point thirty eastern getting a

991
00:47:28,239 --> 00:47:31,400
touchdown at Oregon? Because as I said earlier, Illinois got

992
00:47:31,519 --> 00:47:33,599
smacked by Indiana a couple of weeks ago, and I

993
00:47:33,679 --> 00:47:36,039
just can't overlook that I don't feel like they're ready

994
00:47:36,039 --> 00:47:39,239
for primetime players. Interesting points you bring up, though about

995
00:47:39,280 --> 00:47:42,000
Ohio State's two big wins not looking you know, as

996
00:47:42,039 --> 00:47:43,719
the tough ofware. They haven't played Penn State yet, but

997
00:47:43,800 --> 00:47:45,960
once again, you know, the Texas went not looking as tough.

998
00:47:46,079 --> 00:47:48,440
Now that was the first game for saying two really

999
00:47:48,480 --> 00:47:50,559
good defenses. By the way I do right Ohio State

1000
00:47:50,679 --> 00:47:52,440
is the number one defense in the country right now.

1001
00:47:53,000 --> 00:47:54,880
I rate their offense eighth, so they are actually a

1002
00:47:54,960 --> 00:47:58,360
better defensive team than offensively. My simulation has them by

1003
00:47:58,400 --> 00:48:01,239
two touchdowns thirteen point eight, so I think the line

1004
00:48:01,360 --> 00:48:04,079
is spot on where it should be. But at fourteen

1005
00:48:04,199 --> 00:48:05,880
or less, if you're going to play it, I would

1006
00:48:05,960 --> 00:48:10,079
rather lay it with Ohio State. You mentioned Julian saying

1007
00:48:11,039 --> 00:48:12,960
he has only had one road game. They've played four

1008
00:48:13,000 --> 00:48:15,360
home games in one road game. Now that Washington game

1009
00:48:15,480 --> 00:48:17,199
was at the press of win two, we sco twenty

1010
00:48:17,239 --> 00:48:20,239
four to six. And the defense has been extremely strong

1011
00:48:20,320 --> 00:48:23,079
all season long. They've held every opponent to single digits

1012
00:48:23,719 --> 00:48:26,559
and that's really incredible when you think about it, to

1013
00:48:26,559 --> 00:48:28,519
hold everybody in nine points or less. We'll be testing

1014
00:48:28,599 --> 00:48:31,559
more here against Illinois. Total has taken some money to

1015
00:48:31,599 --> 00:48:33,599
the under open fifty one. It's down to forty nine

1016
00:48:33,599 --> 00:48:36,199
and a half, fifty below that key number. Now, if

1017
00:48:36,239 --> 00:48:37,880
I'm going to play it, I'm laying it at fourteen

1018
00:48:37,960 --> 00:48:39,480
or less only. But I think the line is pretty

1019
00:48:39,519 --> 00:48:40,519
much spot on where it should be.

1020
00:48:41,360 --> 00:48:43,679
Speaker 1: Okay, Ralph, what do you think? I know you follow

1021
00:48:43,679 --> 00:48:45,039
the Buckeyes very close?

1022
00:48:46,039 --> 00:48:49,159
Speaker 2: Well, you know I will share one trend before I

1023
00:48:49,239 --> 00:48:55,199
break it down, And for Ohio State, when teams are

1024
00:48:55,239 --> 00:48:58,039
a double digit conference home dog off a conference win,

1025
00:49:00,360 --> 00:49:04,119
they are forty nine to fifty eight thirty seven percent.

1026
00:49:04,239 --> 00:49:07,800
That's a negative. But teams with five wins and no

1027
00:49:08,000 --> 00:49:11,320
losses with an average win of twenty one points or

1028
00:49:11,360 --> 00:49:14,519
more when their offense is allowing, when their offense is

1029
00:49:14,639 --> 00:49:17,480
averaging under forty under fifty points per game and their

1030
00:49:17,639 --> 00:49:22,239
opponent has a seventy seventy percent win percentage only fourteen

1031
00:49:22,280 --> 00:49:25,000
and fifty eight, that is nineteen percent against the spread.

1032
00:49:25,320 --> 00:49:29,039
So one situation on each listen I've watched, I've watched

1033
00:49:29,079 --> 00:49:31,599
the Buckeyes, and we're just going to continue to hear.

1034
00:49:33,000 --> 00:49:35,760
They have not given up a red zone touchdown yet

1035
00:49:35,800 --> 00:49:39,760
this year. They've given up two chief touchdowns. You look

1036
00:49:39,800 --> 00:49:44,000
at their halftime scores seven nothing, thirty five nothing against Grambling,

1037
00:49:44,320 --> 00:49:48,679
Ohio thirteen three, Washington seventy three, Minnesota twenty one to three.

1038
00:49:49,719 --> 00:49:51,960
I look at Illinois and I think they're a defense

1039
00:49:52,360 --> 00:49:56,079
that can keep the game close. They're not a defense

1040
00:49:56,119 --> 00:49:58,599
I trust for the entire game. So I'm gonna do

1041
00:49:58,679 --> 00:50:01,519
something funky here. You know, you could look at If

1042
00:50:01,559 --> 00:50:03,559
you guys haven't checked out the gold sheet, make sure

1043
00:50:03,599 --> 00:50:06,079
you did now that we're five or six games into

1044
00:50:06,119 --> 00:50:09,360
the season. The gold sheet has first quarter and first

1045
00:50:09,480 --> 00:50:13,320
half ats and over underlogs for every team, including full game.

1046
00:50:14,000 --> 00:50:16,400
How about if I pull out a under seven and

1047
00:50:16,480 --> 00:50:22,719
a half first quarter for Illinois Ohio State this week? Okay,

1048
00:50:26,719 --> 00:50:29,880
I just think Ohio State doesn't. They don't put Julians

1049
00:50:29,960 --> 00:50:30,880
Day in back.

1050
00:50:31,239 --> 00:50:35,719
Speaker 3: Off and early, you know, and the second start ever, right, Ralph, Yeah,

1051
00:50:35,719 --> 00:50:37,360
I mean they're not gonna ask him to do something

1052
00:50:37,400 --> 00:50:39,320
big in a hostile environment, because that's my concern with

1053
00:50:39,400 --> 00:50:41,880
Ohio state'stide in general. It's only his second road start

1054
00:50:41,920 --> 00:50:43,079
ever for a young quarterback.

1055
00:50:43,199 --> 00:50:45,599
Speaker 2: Yeah, and Washington, he didn't do anything late. Remember they

1056
00:50:45,639 --> 00:50:48,039
had pool the back later they scored, they were seven

1057
00:50:48,079 --> 00:50:49,440
to three at half, they only had one hundred and

1058
00:50:49,440 --> 00:50:52,519
thirty eight first half yards. And this Illinois defense, again,

1059
00:50:52,559 --> 00:50:55,880
while not superior, I mean they still are an upper

1060
00:50:55,920 --> 00:50:57,800
half defense that have held at least two teams to

1061
00:50:57,880 --> 00:50:58,480
a season low.

1062
00:50:59,280 --> 00:51:01,440
Speaker 3: Ralph, when I do my Top twenty five video this afternoon,

1063
00:51:01,440 --> 00:51:03,480
I'm giving you a shout out on that for this game.

1064
00:51:03,559 --> 00:51:05,239
I like that, and it's something I use a lot

1065
00:51:05,280 --> 00:51:07,000
of the Super Bowl. Of course the Patriots for the

1066
00:51:07,079 --> 00:51:09,280
money team with that, but teams don't want to make

1067
00:51:09,280 --> 00:51:11,039
the first mistake early in a big game. And as

1068
00:51:11,079 --> 00:51:13,800
I referenced earlier, that Penn State Oregon game was three

1069
00:51:13,840 --> 00:51:16,679
to three, laid into the first half, especially with.

1070
00:51:16,719 --> 00:51:19,079
Speaker 2: True Frost, especially with freshman quarterbacks on the road.

1071
00:51:19,159 --> 00:51:20,199
Speaker 3: Right, yeah, yeah, no question.

1072
00:51:21,480 --> 00:51:23,239
Speaker 1: All right, we got one more game in the rundown

1073
00:51:23,239 --> 00:51:25,440
and then we're gonna get to our best bets. Stay

1074
00:51:25,480 --> 00:51:27,280
tuned for those best bets. But we're gonna just real

1075
00:51:27,360 --> 00:51:29,159
quick hit on LSU South coastin This is actually a

1076
00:51:29,159 --> 00:51:31,599
game I don't have a very strong opinion on myself.

1077
00:51:31,639 --> 00:51:34,840
South Carolina is a team that a few weeks remember

1078
00:51:34,840 --> 00:51:36,559
when they were rated number eleven in the country, and

1079
00:51:36,639 --> 00:51:39,800
I said that is dumb, and sure enough it was dumb.

1080
00:51:39,840 --> 00:51:41,760
They are are not going to be back in the

1081
00:51:41,800 --> 00:51:45,719
top twenty five again. But I'm not racing to the

1082
00:51:45,800 --> 00:51:48,840
window to lay points with lsu Steve. You know, you

1083
00:51:48,920 --> 00:51:51,239
know this is a team who we thought they were.

1084
00:51:51,400 --> 00:51:53,320
They were as high as number four in the country.

1085
00:51:53,960 --> 00:51:56,920
Talking about wins not aging, well, it'd be Clemson in

1086
00:51:56,960 --> 00:51:58,679
the open every though, oh my god, what'll win that?

1087
00:51:58,760 --> 00:51:58,960
Speaker 3: Well?

1088
00:51:59,039 --> 00:52:02,239
Speaker 1: That everyone Clemson out and then they needed five DJ

1089
00:52:02,400 --> 00:52:05,360
Lagway interceptions to beat Florida. Maybe that win looks after

1090
00:52:05,400 --> 00:52:08,000
Florida beats Texas, that looks a little bit better. But

1091
00:52:08,719 --> 00:52:10,719
I don't know. These are two teams I'm not looking

1092
00:52:10,760 --> 00:52:12,480
to bet right, I'm gonna be real honest, guys, I'm

1093
00:52:12,519 --> 00:52:14,519
throwing my hands up in the air. I don't want

1094
00:52:14,559 --> 00:52:15,800
to play this game. So I'm interesting to hear what

1095
00:52:15,880 --> 00:52:16,559
you guys have to say.

1096
00:52:17,239 --> 00:52:19,400
Speaker 3: Well, real quick on this one for me is that

1097
00:52:19,559 --> 00:52:21,119
it reminds me a little bit of Florida. You know,

1098
00:52:21,239 --> 00:52:23,800
last week everyone nothing to do with Florida, drastic under

1099
00:52:23,800 --> 00:52:25,840
achieve they're a top fifteen team, and then al asudd

1100
00:52:25,840 --> 00:52:29,199
they beat Texas outright, you reference how far South Carolina

1101
00:52:29,239 --> 00:52:31,360
has fallen this year, Brian, so I can get a

1102
00:52:31,400 --> 00:52:33,320
little bit that sneaky feeling in this game as well.

1103
00:52:33,360 --> 00:52:36,360
With that said, though, my ten thousand game simulation has

1104
00:52:36,519 --> 00:52:39,480
LSU by seventeen in this one, which is double the

1105
00:52:39,559 --> 00:52:42,519
point spread. So I still think nine and a half

1106
00:52:42,599 --> 00:52:44,199
or less eight and a half the current line, there

1107
00:52:44,280 --> 00:52:45,280
is some value with LSU.

1108
00:52:46,639 --> 00:52:50,920
Speaker 2: Ralph, Well, you know, I look at this LSU offense.

1109
00:52:52,480 --> 00:52:55,239
Three hundred and sixty five yards at home against La Tech,

1110
00:52:56,320 --> 00:53:00,280
three hundred and sixteen yards at home against Florida, fifty

1111
00:53:00,280 --> 00:53:03,599
four yards against Mississippi. Yeah, you know, they had a

1112
00:53:03,639 --> 00:53:06,880
stat patter against Southeast Louisiana where they had fifty six

1113
00:53:06,960 --> 00:53:09,440
points and five hundred and thirty making their season to

1114
00:53:09,519 --> 00:53:12,400
dates add up. There's no way I can bet LSU

1115
00:53:12,599 --> 00:53:15,800
with that offense in this line. This isn't your father's offense.

1116
00:53:15,880 --> 00:53:18,840
In fact, they're ninety two in offense relative to their

1117
00:53:18,960 --> 00:53:21,719
opponents averages. You know, last week we did talk about

1118
00:53:21,760 --> 00:53:25,320
and I did say this though, I make LSU Death

1119
00:53:25,400 --> 00:53:28,360
Valley at Night and Penn State White Out the two

1120
00:53:28,639 --> 00:53:32,079
highest home field edges LSU and home day games. They've

1121
00:53:32,119 --> 00:53:34,039
only had seven the last couple of years they've gone

1122
00:53:34,079 --> 00:53:36,840
four and three against the spread. At night at home,

1123
00:53:37,119 --> 00:53:40,440
they're sixteen nine and one sixty four percent against the spread.

1124
00:53:40,840 --> 00:53:43,159
But if you exclude games as a favorite of thirty

1125
00:53:43,199 --> 00:53:45,679
three or more against de FCS teams and weak opponents,

1126
00:53:46,159 --> 00:53:48,800
it actually goes to thirteen and three eighty one percent.

1127
00:53:48,960 --> 00:53:52,719
But this one surprised me. At home at night off

1128
00:53:52,800 --> 00:53:56,079
a loss, they're only three six and one against the spread,

1129
00:53:56,239 --> 00:53:58,519
excluding a couple of games as a forty point favorite.

1130
00:53:58,880 --> 00:54:00,960
So you would think if you have a strong home court,

1131
00:54:01,039 --> 00:54:03,119
you're coming off a lost home field, and you're coming

1132
00:54:03,159 --> 00:54:05,400
off a loss, would be a better record. It hasn't.

1133
00:54:06,440 --> 00:54:09,239
I'm gonna just play under. I am not actually gonna

1134
00:54:09,239 --> 00:54:11,880
play under. I'm just gonna give a suggestion on under

1135
00:54:12,599 --> 00:54:15,039
South Carolina as slow as it gets their number one

1136
00:54:15,159 --> 00:54:17,800
hundred and thirty three in plays per game, they're averaging

1137
00:54:17,840 --> 00:54:21,440
only set fifty seven point six plays per game. And

1138
00:54:21,599 --> 00:54:23,760
if I like this kind of under against this kind

1139
00:54:23,800 --> 00:54:26,039
of team and this kind of line in a nighttime setting,

1140
00:54:26,400 --> 00:54:29,679
I would clearly lean first half under much more than

1141
00:54:29,800 --> 00:54:33,639
full game, because we don't know what Leonora Sellers is

1142
00:54:33,719 --> 00:54:36,440
gonna do. He got banged up couple games, he's only

1143
00:54:36,480 --> 00:54:38,840
had four touchdown passes, so for him to be on

1144
00:54:38,920 --> 00:54:41,119
the road is a little shaky for me. Full game,

1145
00:54:41,480 --> 00:54:42,480
first half under for me.

1146
00:54:43,519 --> 00:54:45,760
Speaker 1: All right, And this is a seven to forty five

1147
00:54:45,920 --> 00:54:49,039
Eastern kickoff down in Baton Rouge. That gives Brian Kelly

1148
00:54:49,400 --> 00:54:51,840
plenty of time to practice that phony Cajun accent he

1149
00:54:52,000 --> 00:54:55,039
likes to use sometimes for recruiting. All right, the show

1150
00:54:55,320 --> 00:54:57,360
has now reached the point where we're gonna go over

1151
00:54:57,599 --> 00:54:59,760
some best bets. If we have some time, We're gonna

1152
00:54:59,760 --> 00:55:01,280
try to some of the rest of the games we

1153
00:55:01,360 --> 00:55:03,239
have to talk to in the comment section, but we

1154
00:55:04,079 --> 00:55:07,639
do have best bets to get to. I did see

1155
00:55:07,719 --> 00:55:10,519
a kind remark there that I would like to acknowledge.

1156
00:55:10,639 --> 00:55:13,679
Acknowledge real quick here there it is Brian maybe somebody

1157
00:55:13,760 --> 00:55:17,760
last week. Thank you, Swizz. I appreciate that. Hopefully this

1158
00:55:17,840 --> 00:55:20,039
play can make you all somebody. It is my best

1159
00:55:20,239 --> 00:55:22,039
bet here for the show, we're going to take a

1160
00:55:22,079 --> 00:55:27,079
look at Arizona, and by you, I like Arizona plus

1161
00:55:27,159 --> 00:55:30,159
one and a half sure BYU is ranked and undefeated.

1162
00:55:30,239 --> 00:55:35,480
But who have they played? Portland State, Stanford, East Carolina, Colorado,

1163
00:55:35,599 --> 00:55:38,719
and West Virginia. Clients of mine will recall we faded

1164
00:55:38,760 --> 00:55:41,880
the Cougars two weeks ago at Colorado that ended up

1165
00:55:41,920 --> 00:55:44,239
being a winning bet, even though BYU did come back

1166
00:55:44,280 --> 00:55:46,599
and win the game straight up, but only by three

1167
00:55:47,079 --> 00:55:49,920
as a touchdown favorite. Colorado got a nice early lead

1168
00:55:50,000 --> 00:55:52,280
that was a wire to wire cover. This is going

1169
00:55:52,360 --> 00:55:55,880
to be BYU's third road game in four weeks, always

1170
00:55:55,920 --> 00:55:58,360
a tough spot. On top of that, they've got the

1171
00:55:58,440 --> 00:56:02,119
Holy War against you on deck. You know the players,

1172
00:56:02,400 --> 00:56:04,400
they're gonna say they're not looking ahead to it. Some

1173
00:56:04,599 --> 00:56:06,280
of them are, so I think it's a good time

1174
00:56:06,320 --> 00:56:08,400
to call for the Cougars to suffer their first loss.

1175
00:56:08,880 --> 00:56:12,639
I know two weeks ago we lost with this Arizona

1176
00:56:12,719 --> 00:56:16,719
team at Iowa State, but the Wildcats at home four

1177
00:56:16,800 --> 00:56:18,719
and oh, straight up and against the number. This game

1178
00:56:18,840 --> 00:56:21,000
is being played in Tucson. If you caught the blitz

1179
00:56:21,079 --> 00:56:24,159
last week, I said Arizona with wax Oklahoma State they

1180
00:56:24,239 --> 00:56:27,599
did forty one to thirteen to three touchdown favorite. Yes,

1181
00:56:28,400 --> 00:56:30,559
everyone is jumping off the Oklahoma State ship in the

1182
00:56:30,559 --> 00:56:33,480
wake of Mike Gundy's firing, but still, when you take

1183
00:56:33,519 --> 00:56:35,440
care of business is a three touchdown favorite. It is

1184
00:56:35,519 --> 00:56:38,840
worth noting and talk about taking care of business as

1185
00:56:38,880 --> 00:56:39,639
a home underdog.

1186
00:56:39,719 --> 00:56:40,000
Speaker 2: Guys.

1187
00:56:40,320 --> 00:56:43,000
Speaker 1: Last five times Arizona's been a home dog four and

1188
00:56:43,079 --> 00:56:44,840
one against the number, and we got to talk about

1189
00:56:44,840 --> 00:56:47,719
their defense. They have held three of their four FBS

1190
00:56:47,800 --> 00:56:51,639
opponents to season lows in total yardage. Not only that,

1191
00:56:52,199 --> 00:56:57,639
but the secondary seven interceptions, zero touchdown passes allowed. Give

1192
00:56:57,679 --> 00:56:59,760
me Arizona plus one and a half is my best.

1193
00:57:00,360 --> 00:57:02,320
For all my top plays this weekend, go over to

1194
00:57:02,519 --> 00:57:06,000
wt dot buzz slash VP currently a five plays posted

1195
00:57:06,800 --> 00:57:09,320
for Saturday. Steve, You're up next.

1196
00:57:10,239 --> 00:57:11,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I got to talk about a game which is

1197
00:57:12,320 --> 00:57:13,719
one of the better games this week, and I think

1198
00:57:13,760 --> 00:57:14,920
and also it's gonna be a little bit of a

1199
00:57:15,119 --> 00:57:17,559
bonus game in my Top twenty five video because it's

1200
00:57:17,599 --> 00:57:19,599
one team that's just a bit outside of the rankings.

1201
00:57:19,679 --> 00:57:21,920
What I do, by the way, am i top twenty

1202
00:57:21,960 --> 00:57:24,199
five video this week is I look at seven games.

1203
00:57:24,239 --> 00:57:26,159
There are three head to head top twenty five matchups,

1204
00:57:26,199 --> 00:57:28,280
and I always dig deeper and give you some of

1205
00:57:28,280 --> 00:57:30,360
those bonus games. There's actually four more games in the

1206
00:57:30,440 --> 00:57:33,639
top forty and this is one of them. USC Michigan.

1207
00:57:34,159 --> 00:57:36,639
Michigan ranked fifteenth yet they're a dog in this game.

1208
00:57:36,679 --> 00:57:38,840
It always catches my eye when we get an unranked

1209
00:57:39,000 --> 00:57:41,960
favorite in college football. And if USC wins this game,

1210
00:57:42,039 --> 00:57:44,360
as I think they will, they'll be ranked next week.

1211
00:57:44,360 --> 00:57:46,760
They're currently six in the additional votes, which puts them

1212
00:57:46,800 --> 00:57:49,559
into thirty first, and they're two and a half point favorite.

1213
00:57:49,559 --> 00:57:52,000
I really like this line right now because my ten

1214
00:57:52,079 --> 00:57:55,639
thousand game simulation favors USC by six points on average,

1215
00:57:56,079 --> 00:57:57,480
So at minus two and a half or less, we're

1216
00:57:57,480 --> 00:58:00,280
getting that key number of three working in our favor. Yes,

1217
00:58:00,400 --> 00:58:03,119
Michigan's played a tougher schedule, but USC right now still

1218
00:58:03,159 --> 00:58:05,320
ranks as the number one offensive team in the country

1219
00:58:05,360 --> 00:58:08,360
in my ratings. They're averaging fifty nine points at home

1220
00:58:08,440 --> 00:58:10,239
this year, like forty eight and a half overall in

1221
00:58:10,320 --> 00:58:13,360
all games live offense. I just don't know if Michigan

1222
00:58:13,440 --> 00:58:15,639
can keep up in this one late. If you're going

1223
00:58:15,719 --> 00:58:17,760
to play it with USC and take that nice number now,

1224
00:58:17,800 --> 00:58:19,519
don't wait for it possibly to hit three. Take the

1225
00:58:19,599 --> 00:58:21,599
minus two and a half with the Trojans, as this

1226
00:58:21,760 --> 00:58:23,760
is a late game Saturday night, seven thirty East on

1227
00:58:23,920 --> 00:58:26,559
NBC National TV, And don't forget right now on my

1228
00:58:26,679 --> 00:58:29,719
page Steve merriwager Talk dot com. I have a bonus

1229
00:58:29,800 --> 00:58:33,360
free NFL play for this Sunday. It's free, don't cost nothing,

1230
00:58:33,559 --> 00:58:36,360
and if you want my personal best bets seven days

1231
00:58:36,440 --> 00:58:39,599
for seventy seven, buy three months, get the fourth month free,

1232
00:58:39,719 --> 00:58:41,639
or the best deal if you're ready to take a

1233
00:58:41,760 --> 00:58:44,639
series consistent investment approach is get the rest of twenty

1234
00:58:44,719 --> 00:58:46,280
twenty five for free. The next two and a half

1235
00:58:46,320 --> 00:58:48,599
months free when you sign up for twenty twenty six.

1236
00:58:48,719 --> 00:58:51,599
Full details, no promo codes need it, Steve merriwager talk

1237
00:58:51,639 --> 00:58:54,639
dot com and get there quicker with shortcut WT dot

1238
00:58:54,760 --> 00:58:55,840
buzz slash.

1239
00:58:55,760 --> 00:59:00,719
Speaker 1: Sm all right, there you have it. Likes USC minus

1240
00:59:00,760 --> 00:59:03,760
two and a half against Michigan Ralph. You're rounding us

1241
00:59:03,760 --> 00:59:06,199
out today. Please it is your time for your best

1242
00:59:06,280 --> 00:59:08,239
bets and to let us know what we got going on.

1243
00:59:08,719 --> 00:59:10,280
You got going on at your page as well.

1244
00:59:10,199 --> 00:59:15,159
Speaker 2: As remember guys, the exclusive twenty five blitz code valid

1245
00:59:15,239 --> 00:59:19,079
only for Steve, Brian myself or Ross Benjamin, who will

1246
00:59:19,159 --> 00:59:21,280
be back next week and he'll be doing many more

1247
00:59:21,360 --> 00:59:24,039
videos as well. So glad you're getting better, Ross, and

1248
00:59:24,079 --> 00:59:27,719
we're looking forward to having you back. We can Warrior

1249
00:59:27,840 --> 00:59:30,000
forty nine dollars. I will have a five percent play

1250
00:59:30,039 --> 00:59:32,719
in the NFL. I am going to Old Dominion, Brian.

1251
00:59:32,840 --> 00:59:38,159
And while I know it's very popular to say the

1252
00:59:38,239 --> 00:59:43,599
AAC is gonna get the extra playoff, Olden Menuon to

1253
00:59:43,679 --> 00:59:46,559
me is a legitimate shot to get to the playoff.

1254
00:59:46,840 --> 00:59:49,440
Their one loss is the Indiana on the road, and

1255
00:59:49,480 --> 00:59:52,880
they lost by thirteen in a season opener. I think

1256
00:59:52,920 --> 00:59:55,000
that can go away if they do run the table.

1257
00:59:55,519 --> 00:59:58,559
They have Marshall this week and then James Madison next

1258
00:59:58,599 --> 01:00:00,559
week in the app State, and then they'll be a

1259
01:00:00,599 --> 01:00:03,400
favorite the rest of the way. But this Old Dominion

1260
01:00:03,440 --> 01:00:09,519
team is dominating on offense and on defense. They've played

1261
01:00:09,559 --> 01:00:12,599
a tougher schedules scheduled in Marshall by twenty six spots

1262
01:00:13,440 --> 01:00:15,920
yards per play their number three in the country yards

1263
01:00:15,960 --> 01:00:20,199
per play diff Marshall one hundred and three, one hundred

1264
01:00:20,280 --> 01:00:25,800
spots better with playing a tougher schedule. You look at Marshall,

1265
01:00:25,920 --> 01:00:28,920
they were in a fifty four to fifty one bar burner.

1266
01:00:29,320 --> 01:00:32,159
Their D line got eight up forty six carries for

1267
01:00:32,280 --> 01:00:35,239
two hundred and sixty four yards. They had twenty eight

1268
01:00:35,320 --> 01:00:38,000
pass plays, so they are on the field for seventy

1269
01:00:38,039 --> 01:00:43,440
four plays, allowing twenty nine first downs. There's one hundred

1270
01:00:43,440 --> 01:00:46,480
and thirty six teams in FBS. Their defense is number

1271
01:00:46,599 --> 01:00:50,000
one thirty one, allowing their opponents one hundred and six

1272
01:00:50,119 --> 01:00:52,960
yards per game, more than they average on the season.

1273
01:00:53,840 --> 01:00:59,159
Old Dominions offense number five, their defense number thirty eight,

1274
01:01:00,079 --> 01:01:02,639
averaging two hundred and fifty eight yards per game and

1275
01:01:02,880 --> 01:01:06,639
six point one yards per carry rushing. When you have

1276
01:01:06,760 --> 01:01:09,679
a defense that is solid allowing three point nine yards

1277
01:01:09,719 --> 01:01:12,440
per carry, an offense that can run for six point

1278
01:01:12,519 --> 01:01:14,840
nine yards per carry, and when you look at Colton

1279
01:01:14,920 --> 01:01:18,719
Joseph's numbers and you say sixty five percent pretty good,

1280
01:01:19,119 --> 01:01:21,719
A twelve to four ratio pretty good, You've got to

1281
01:01:21,800 --> 01:01:25,639
remember this. He had a horrible game against Indiana in

1282
01:01:25,719 --> 01:01:29,400
the opener. He threw three interceptions and no touchdowns. So

1283
01:01:29,559 --> 01:01:32,119
while he's got a twelve to four ratio, he has

1284
01:01:32,639 --> 01:01:39,360
a twelve one ratio versus non top ten AP teams.

1285
01:01:40,119 --> 01:01:45,280
Old Dominion runs this game and perhaps runs the table.

1286
01:01:47,760 --> 01:01:51,360
Speaker 1: Ralph Michael saying, don't forget about Odu. The Monarchs. We

1287
01:01:51,440 --> 01:01:54,440
have Adam is an Odu graduate, as a matter of fact,

1288
01:01:54,880 --> 01:01:57,039
says too bad, Camp better here legally here there's your

1289
01:01:57,239 --> 01:01:59,239
Let me get that off the screen here real quick,

1290
01:01:59,280 --> 01:02:01,440
so you could take a look at our best bets.

1291
01:02:02,039 --> 01:02:04,480
Steve likes USC minus two and a half against Michigan

1292
01:02:04,559 --> 01:02:06,880
ralph As you just heard, like Odu minus fourteen and

1293
01:02:06,920 --> 01:02:11,159
a half against Marshall, I right, power, like Arizona plus

1294
01:02:11,400 --> 01:02:14,480
one and a half against the Yu. You want to

1295
01:02:14,519 --> 01:02:17,159
bundle them all together final price plus six oh two.

1296
01:02:17,880 --> 01:02:18,920
That would do it nice?

1297
01:02:19,119 --> 01:02:19,480
Speaker 3: All right?

1298
01:02:19,599 --> 01:02:21,880
Speaker 1: Yes, but Steve, I know that's not in your neck

1299
01:02:21,920 --> 01:02:25,039
of the woods there you, of course a graduate of

1300
01:02:25,079 --> 01:02:29,400
a fellow colonial school there. William and Mary awesome tailgate,

1301
01:02:29,440 --> 01:02:31,079
I'm being told here by Adam.

1302
01:02:30,840 --> 01:02:34,559
Speaker 3: At Old Old Dominion. Yeah, the Old Dominion. James Madison

1303
01:02:34,599 --> 01:02:36,440
Games is gonna be the biggest game in the conferences

1304
01:02:36,480 --> 01:02:39,760
here to former FCS teams on the Colonial, which should

1305
01:02:39,800 --> 01:02:41,360
make things a lot easier for one and Mary to

1306
01:02:41,400 --> 01:02:44,320
win nowadays. But unfortunately they've been very mediocre this season.

1307
01:02:45,159 --> 01:02:47,039
But yeah, it's good to see the local teams doing well.

1308
01:02:47,079 --> 01:02:49,960
And we talked about Indiana. Don't forget Signetty came from

1309
01:02:50,079 --> 01:02:52,559
James Madison two years ago. We had a monster season

1310
01:02:52,599 --> 01:02:55,039
as well when they went one A so he really.

1311
01:02:54,920 --> 01:02:57,159
Speaker 2: Didn't come from James Madison, Steve, he just brought the

1312
01:02:57,280 --> 01:02:58,440
entire games Madison team.

1313
01:02:58,599 --> 01:03:01,199
Speaker 3: Yeah, that is very true, and they make the playoffs

1314
01:03:01,239 --> 01:03:04,159
with it in this first season last year. So yeah,

1315
01:03:04,360 --> 01:03:05,239
I know Ralph uses it.

1316
01:03:05,320 --> 01:03:05,679
Speaker 2: I know you do.

1317
01:03:05,800 --> 01:03:08,760
Speaker 3: Brian. Don't underestimate coaches when you're handicapping college football and

1318
01:03:08,880 --> 01:03:10,639
college basketball. It's a very important element.

1319
01:03:11,360 --> 01:03:15,480
Speaker 1: Absolutely. We did talk about Colorado Iowa State earlier. If

1320
01:03:15,480 --> 01:03:17,199
you want to go back check the replay, you could

1321
01:03:17,199 --> 01:03:20,519
hear our thoughts on that. We are out of time.

1322
01:03:20,559 --> 01:03:23,039
I did see there was a question about Arizona State

1323
01:03:23,119 --> 01:03:26,119
and Utah. That is another matchup of an unranked team

1324
01:03:26,400 --> 01:03:28,599
favored over against top twenty five opponent. I'll say this

1325
01:03:29,239 --> 01:03:31,840
to whoever ask the question, Utah is a if you

1326
01:03:31,920 --> 01:03:33,360
want to do this, I think Utah is a good

1327
01:03:33,360 --> 01:03:35,440
moneyline parlay piece this week if you could pair it

1328
01:03:35,519 --> 01:03:38,280
with another similarly priced favorite, I think Utah is gonna

1329
01:03:38,280 --> 01:03:40,599
win that game. I don't see Kyle Whittingham losing two

1330
01:03:40,679 --> 01:03:44,360
big games of the same season at Rice Eccles. So

1331
01:03:44,840 --> 01:03:47,840
that is my take on Utah Arizona State. That will

1332
01:03:47,920 --> 01:03:51,039
do it for this week's edition of The Blitz. Thank

1333
01:03:51,079 --> 01:03:53,280
you to Ralph, Thank you to Steve for all the

1334
01:03:53,360 --> 01:03:57,079
incredible information they shared. Do not forget about coupon code

1335
01:03:57,239 --> 01:04:02,000
twenty five Blitz to save on any college football or

1336
01:04:02,239 --> 01:04:06,239
NFL or combo season long package. There you see that

1337
01:04:06,440 --> 01:04:10,079
coupon code right there on your screen. We will be

1338
01:04:10,159 --> 01:04:13,320
back next week, of course, live one pm Eastern. Until that,

1339
01:04:13,880 --> 01:04:15,159
let's catch some tickets.

1340
01:04:17,480 --> 01:04:20,039
Speaker 4: Sexy Sexy Devil.

1341
01:04:20,800 --> 01:04:21,039
Speaker 1: Wow