Speaker 1: Oklahoma versus Texas, Ohio State at Illinois, Alabama at Missouri, Indiana, Oregon,
South Carolina at LSU. If you're looking for free winning
picks on any of those big Week seven college football matchups,
well then you have come to the right place. What's
going on, everybody? Welcome to the Blitz. We are live
here on the Wage Talk YouTube channel, as is the
case every Thursday at one pm Eastern. And not only
do we have free picks on all the games I
just mentioned, but if you're watching us live, there's a benefit.
You can go ahead and ask us about any other
game you'd like our opinion on. We will answer those questions.
You can start firing them off right now down below.
Joining me this week, Ralph Michaels and Steve Merrill. Ralph,
I'm gonna go to you first as we open this
week's discussion with Red River, Oklahoma and Texas three point
thirty Eastern on ABC. A very interesting line here, I
thought odds makers have installed this now unranked and completely
desperate Texas team as a slight favorite over the sixth ranks. Sooners,
there are important questions I think that need to be
addressed here, namely, at the quarterback position for both teams.
For Oklahoma, we're all trying to figure out is John
Mattier going to return from injury? And for Texas is
arch Manning just not any good? Give me your thoughts
on this one.
Speaker 2: You know, obviously, I think the line is baked in
that they're not expecting Matier now, you know, with Texas
being the favorite, if you know, with what you read
a couple hours ago, I looked and basically he's day
to day. You know, when he had his hand surgery
on a broken bone on his throwing hand three weeks ago,
no one thought he would even be here for this game.
So it's pretty remarkable that he's actually practiced some. But
I like Oklahoma, but I cannot back them with a
true freshman if Mattier doesn't go. So this may be
a game that if he practices today and we get
a positive report and then you know he is ready
to go Saturday morning, I may get on with this game.
You know, as far as you look at arch Manning,
you know, you look at his stats, they're not horrible.
Eleven to five or eight touchdown interception ratio, eight point
five YPA, sixty percent completions but you look at his
games at Florida and at Ohio State, that's where he
really struggled. He was a combined thirty four of sixty
two in those games. What shocked the hell out of
me last week was Texas's defense. Was I shocked that
they lost at Florida? No? Was I shocked that they
lost to Florida and allowed four hundred and fifty seven yards,
got out gained by one hundred and sixteen yards, got
out first down twenty two to sixteen, one hundred percent.
I was shocked. The Oklahoma defense has done what it's asked.
You look at a defense that is allowing one hundred
and ninety three yards per game. They have held four
of their five opponents to a season low. It is
interesting to note the first three games with material healthy,
their offense also had a season high against their opponents.
So to me, statistically, Oklahoma with a massive advantage. Looking
at my stat compare sheet, we're looking at a Texas
team that's the number seventy seven toughest schedule, Oklahoma's eighty seven.
So basically, even with those even schedules, Oklahoma's number seven
in yards per game diff and number fourteen in yards
per playdiff Texas quite a bit behind twenty two and
twenty five. And this Oklahoma defense just doesn't give up
big plays. They're number two in explosive plays allowed those
of ten or more. Oklahoma for me, doesn't make my
card unless I know materiis healthy. If he is healthy, though,
I'm gonna guess this goes to Oklahoma minus three.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would agree with that it'll be, and then Steve,
it would be interesting because you know, I'm one who
always likes to, you know, play with fire, go against
the current, swim upstream if you will. I almost wonder
if it would be if but here does play, if
there's an overreaction, then and you know, like Ralph's the
way the lines moving, and maybe there would there would
be some value on Texas. But my question is Ralph
brought up a lot of great points about the respective
defenses here. They're both very good, and Oklahoma is a
perfect five and zero to the under this year. I'm
surprised looking at the odd screen this total's moved up
a point. I know that's not a big deal, but
you know it opened forty two and a half. Obviously
that's very low, but you know, with those quarterback uncertainties
we're talking about and the defense of you know how
strong the defenses are, Like Ralph pointed out, I don't know.
It's obviously gonna be a low scoring game and that's
baked into the number. But what do you think about
that total being moved being bent up a point?
Speaker 3: Well, we talked about the Texas Florida game last week
on the show, and that total was right around this
range also forty two, forty three United State above that
key number of forty one. It landed fifty, And as
Ralph said, what surprised me wasn't necessarily that Florida went
out right. We all talked about them being the ugly
dog that no one can touch, and they kind of
had that step up game. I do think Texas overlooked them,
by the way, and with the look ahead game here
with Oklahoma on deck, maybe that was the case. But
the defense gave up over four hundred yards. So that's
the kind of the quandary I'm in here as a
Florida team that couldn't move the ball this season all
of a sudden breaks out. But Oklahoma is up against it.
They don't have their starting quarterback, Here's what's crazy. Arch
Maning has had a very mediocre season. You're get his
quarterback rating, it's one hundred and fifty one. Mattier on
the season is one forty nine point five. He has
a higher quarterback rating in the need of the Oklahoma quarterbacks,
which is insane. It just shows how inaccurate that can be.
But what I do dig deeper, and Ralph kind of
touched on this is arch manning against better teams. Has
it really performed last week against the Gators two interceptions
against Ohio State one interception, a three to three ratio
in those two games, and then the one that jumps
out to me was the UTEP game. His worst radio
of the season was against UTEP in Week three, the
third game. He's been very inconsistent. I would lean under
for that reason, would like more certainty of the quarterback situation.
Mattier and Hawkins both have nice numbers as far as
touchdown interceptions ratings. But what really jumps out to me
is that Tiers averaging eight and a half yards per pass.
Hawkins junior, the backup who's throwing twenty seven passes, not many,
He's only averaging six point two. Let's wait and see
if we get more clarity on the quarterback situation. I
like the under if the backup is still in there,
and I do think the Texas defense will play better
this week if that's the case.
Speaker 1: Okay, Ralph, you had something to scheffer.
Speaker 2: Support you're under. Texas was sacked six times last week
against Florida. And oh yeah, by the way, Oklahoma has
nineteen sacks the last three weeks. Yes, two of the
games were Temple and Kent State. But remember this same
defense had ten sacks against Auburn. So if you want
to see arch Man in quake a little bit, wait
till this d line t's off on him.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I met that Auburn game against Oklahoma. Auburn
just could not get anything going. They could not run
the ball whatsoever. Guys, I mentioned to get those questions
in about any game you want to hear about, and
the beauty if you're watching live, not only do you
get at any game, not only can you ask them
about any game you want, but specifically you can ask
about these weekday games. Obviously before because there's a you know,
with Conference USA now has a bunch of games during
the week and there's some big games in the American
as well, and Adam one of our loyal listeners. He's
asked about a few games here. Louisiana Tech Tonight, Louisiana Tech,
a team that is perfect five and zero against the spread.
Adam notes there's still some five and a half six
is out there. The money has come in on Kennesaw State,
the home dog in this game. Adam, I'll be honest,
I was looking at the whole I really wanted to
bet Kennesaw this week, and it's what and this is
why Louisiana Tech their last two wins have been completely fraudulent.
They were out gained in both of them, and that's
by Southern miss and UTEP. Anyone who watched UTEP's offense
last night knows if you're getting out gained by UTEP,
that's not great. So I thought I was gonna be
fading Louisiana Tech in this spot. However, I can't. This
number does seem too low. I'll be honest with you.
With on Kennesaw, you know I would need over seven
to bet them, so I passed. I don't know if
you guys have any take on this game. The numbers
kind of gotten away from it for me.
Speaker 3: I'll say real quick, my ten thousand game simulation has
Louisiana Tech quite thirteen and a half. But I still
didn't use it, Brian, for the exact same reasons you
just said. So I'm on board with you. I wanted
to fade them, but it's about a touchdown too low.
So it was a pass for me for that reason.
Two really bad offensive teams. I rate both defenses substantially
better than the offenses. So I guess if you're looking
at the total, under forty six and a half would
make some sense. It open forty five and a half,
forty seven, forty eight or key numbers. So when you
get to forty seven or more, for some reason, I
would start leaning under.
Speaker 1: Another game. Here, we've got this is a This is
a very very big game in terms of college playoff implications. Yes,
in terms of college football playof implication. I said, it's
South Florida against North Texas. North Texas is a team,
and I was not alone on this. I bet them
against Washington State a few weeks ago, and I joked
after words that I, unfortunately might have had my easiest
winner of the college football season. In September, I can't.
I was watching that game, I said, why can't they
all be like this? Guys? They just kept intercepting Washington State.
They went fifty nine to ten North Texas. North Texas
still unbeaten. I know they've got two overtime wins on
the road against less than stellar competition. But this game
is in Denton. South Florida's first ever tripped out to Denton, Texas.
South Florida, obviously as a team that got a lot
of attention with the upsets of Boise and Florida earlier
in the year, line has been bouncing back and forth.
North Texas open is a favorite. South Florida was favored,
Now North Texas is favorite again. I'll be honest, I
like the mean green. I don't know if any of
you have any take on that one, Ralph.
Speaker 2: You know, I look at the stat profiles on these teams.
USF has played the number thirty nine schedule. North Texas
has played the one hundred and fifteenth schedule, so they
are seventy six better on the strength of schedule are
the Bulls? When you look at yards per play diff
on the season, taking the yards per play on offense,
subtracting the defense, USF is number forty at plus one
point three six yards per play. North Texas is only
twenty six fourteen, only fourteen spots better despite being over
seventy spots worse as far as the stats go, and
when I look at their year to date numbers comparing
what those teams do against the averages of their other opponents.
On offense, North Texas is twenty six on offense, USF
is twenty four. On defense, North Texas is one oh five.
USF is eighty three. I do like USF. There's a
chance they end up on my card.
Speaker 1: Okay, wow, there we go different opinion there. I don't know, Steve,
if you wanted to break the tire, if you just
wanted to let Ralph and I just brought, I will.
Speaker 3: I'll use the total. I actually did a three game
video which just went up this morning, for all three
of the Friday games tomorrow. They're actually three really good
Nash TV games tomorrow night, and South Florida is ranked
twenty fourth right now, North Texas is one of those
unranked favorites. They're currently minus one pick them. It's anywhere
from pick them to minus one and a half. But
we'll call them as a slight unranked favorite. And by
the way, they are getting additional votes. If they win
this game, they will probably be top twenty five next week.
But I like the over sixty six and a half
in this game. North Texas had five hundred plus yards
in half their games last year. They routinely had games
that got into the seventies. In fact, the last two
seasons with the current head coach this team is their
games totaled sixty eight points and seventy two points the
first two seasons under Eric Morris. South Florida has also
played some high scoring games in recent years. No pun intended, Brian,
Let's not overthink this one. I think it'll be a
shootout on Friday night.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and Adam noted that the over under here is
higher than the pres I'll stop it.
Speaker 3: By the way, Prez is working hard. It's Thursday. I
guarantee you that right there. Yes, Prez is coming down.
He gets back up for the weekends. But Ralph talks
about this all the time, as do. I like, we
always played the highest totals over. This is the second
highest total of the week the UAB game on Saturday.
I think it's a sixty nine, dude, So that's like
the only one that's hired. So it's a big number
for reasons.
Speaker 4: Second sixteen devil Wow, All right, let's just explain that,
you know, megas puts out a total where they're gonna
get equal money on both sides.
Speaker 2: There's people that just don't play totals in the seventies.
So when you have a total that are in the
high sixties, it likely should be in the seventies, but
they don't need to put it in the seventies because
they're getting equal money. Same thing on low totals. I
did a video on Iowa, Wisconsin. It's thirty six. Some
guys will never bet under low totals. But you know,
I said to my video, oh my god, is this
that Iowa team of twenty thirteen that averaged fifteen points
per game? And there was a total of twenty nine
that year, So you think thirty six is level. Let's
think of back two years about Iowa.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I was a textbook example. I think it was
what two years ago, they were like ten and two
to the under, and we're getting totals low thirties, high twenties.
They're still going under and Ralph, one of the best
charts you've ever sent me was for a baseball video
couple years ago. I asked you to pull up the
numbers under six and a half or less. This is
about two seasons ago, and Ralph pointed out that on
the blind eight of the previous nine years, if you'd
played all under six and a halves or lower, you
made money in Major League Baseball. So that's how powerful
it can be at times to take a contrarian view
with low and high totals.
Speaker 1: Thank you, Corey, by the way for those kind words.
This is a great show. I do say I would
agree with that. So all right, one thing too about
the total and the South Florida North Texas. I don't
know if you guys caught the end of South Florida's
game last week against Charlotte. I could not believe that
they were running up tempo, hurry up to something. Tells
me they knew the spread because they got that late
touchdown to get the cash there laid at the game.
That was crazy. That was I was laughing. I mean
they were hiking the ball. There were still thirty seconds
left on the play clock.
Speaker 3: They were hiking.
Speaker 1: It was unbelievable.
Speaker 3: And that's really something to pay attention to. I mean,
we've all been around for a while. Remember in the
nineties Bill Snyder with Kansas State when I was starting
back from the mid to late nineties, he would put
guys back in to score a late touchdown and they
would cover the forty point spread, the thirty point spread.
So it's something to keep an eye on. He's a
third year coach as well.
Speaker 1: Yes, and so we've got a lot of questions coming.
Let's go back to our rundown guys. We've got a
lot of questions, multiple questions. Jacob Hefner is here. He's
got his eye on a couple home dogs. One of
them is Missouri. Sean Burley. He is asking about Missouri
and Bama as well. Quote, why does it seem everyone
has written this game off as a w for Bama.
I don't get the opening line at all. So let's
talk Alabama Missouri noon East or noon Eastern time. I
talked about this game on the midweek edition of the
Power Five. I think we would all agree it's not
a great spot for the Crimson Tide. They you know,
obviously got the back door cover last week against Vanderbilt
talking about teams punching it in late and Missouri's coming
off of bye. But I asked the question, Steve Merrill,
who exactly has Missouri played not? It's a real rogues
gallery of opponents so far. The toughest team they beat
was Kansas. They were losing in that game. Now, I
was a deserved win when you open the box score,
But the Missouri is typically I look at the spot,
Missouri is a team if you follow me, Missouri is
a team that I would usually bet on in this spot.
I'm not You talked about power rating, Steve. I'll tell
you my power ratings disagree with this line move. I
have Alabama rated number two in the country. Missouri barely
cracks my top twenty five.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Brian, you and I have won consistently in college
football for decades. I think we do things a lot
in the same way. And I'm with you on this one.
I did a standalone video for this last night. Of course,
it's going to be a part of my college football
Top twenty five video which I'm doing later today for
this weekend. And I'm conflicted on this game. My ten
thousand game simulation has Alabama by five. So I do
think the line's a little cheap now that it's down
to that key number of three. But I agree the
situation looks better for Missouri here. You pointed out some
of the reasons. First of all, they're coming off the
bye week, live home dog, off a bye week in
BAMA letdown spot after Vanderbilt. What's possible. I mean, they
had the big win at Georgia and then they had
the huge revenge game last week against Bandy. This is
not a great spot at oh By the way, They've
got Tennessee on deck next week. I just don't know
for sure though either, if Missouri is for real, if
you look at what they've done, even in factoring in
their weaker schedule, it's been pretty impressive this year. Statistically,
they're holding teams to fourteen and a half points three
point nine yards per play. Those teams have averaged five
point five overall. Bama's averaging about six point seven though,
and a huge step up in pass class. Missouri's faced
teams at average about seven point two. Bama's throwing for
nine point two interty've aout Alabama. They're getting amost seventy
seventy five percent of their total yards through the air
this year. They're a pass based offense. Missouri has been
extremely strong against the run and the pass, but they've
faced a much weaker schedule. You know what I used
in the video. I actually used the total here, and
I'm not in love with this, but I used under
fifty one and a half. Fifty two. Fifty one is
a very key number. Both defenses have been strong, both
offenses not quite as strong as the opposing defense is.
I'd probably lean on here, but this is a tough
call for me for some of the reasons you mentioned
as well.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Ralph, so we've seem we kind of have some
conflict here between situation and power ratings. Do the trends
say anything on this game for you?
Speaker 2: And Brian? Let me say two things. I have Alabama
as my number two power rated team, and I make
Alabama a six point favorite. I think the noon start
helps Alabama. These kids like to get fired up and drunk,
and these night games are much tougher in the SEC
than they are day games. We'll talk about that with
LSU coming up in a little bit as well. So
I think that favors Bama. The scheduling, the spot as
you said off of you massing off a bye. That
means Missouri had three weeks to work on this game.
Alabama has had six days. They could not look past Georgia.
They could not look past Vanderbilt. The prep time is amazing.
But let me quantify for you, guys. Missouri is the
number one best statistical team in the country. They are
plus one. They are plus three hundred and forty three
yards per game. That's not their offense. That's what their
offense averages more than their defense allows three hundred and
forty three yards. But everyone hold up if they know
how many FBS teams there are this year, one hundred
and thirty six. Missouri's strength of schedule is number one
hundred and fifty. Alabama is number four. Why one fifty?
I do like using Sagarin for the strength of schedules
because it shows you that how many FCS teams have
actually played a tougher schedule than Missouri, because if you're last,
you might be two hundred last if you just use
the FBS numbers. So I do want to reach out
and say that. But while it's it's very impressive that
Missouri is number one in yards per game diff it's
much more impressive that Alabama is number eighteen in yards
per game diff with the number four schedule. So to me,
Alabama is actually, comparing the strength of schedule the number
one most dominant statistical team in college football, even with
the Buckeyes having their number one defense. But there are
two reasons why I am not playing this game, Brian,
and you asked about the trends, let me share them
with you. When you have a conference home dog off
the home game with at least four straight wins, so
a conference dog, they have been playing well. Those teams
are twenty seven and six eighty one percent against the spread.
And from game four on, if you have a favorite
that has allowed six point five yards per carrier more
eighteen wins and sixty losses, that is a seventy seven
percent fade. And you might be thinking, what the hell
am I talking about. There's no way Bama gave that up. Well,
guess what. Against Georgia they allowed two twenty seven and
six point nine rushing, Against Vanderbilt they allowed seven point
one yards rushing. And let's remember against Florida State they
allowed two hundred thirty yards rushing. Oh yeah, by the way,
Missouri has the countries leading rusher and Amad Hardy seven
hundred thirty yards per game, seven point one yards per carry.
Situation says Missouri. My Power ratings say Alabama statistical profile
up in the air because we're not sure. I lean Missouri,
but cannot bet them until they prove they can handle
this type of competition.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, Ralph, just a simple trend that kept
me off the Bama's side was this as a road favorite.
The last twenty times they've been a road for They're
only seven to thirteen against the number and they fail. Obviously,
those are some big numbers. They failed to cover by
quite a bit. I think they're two and five ats
the last seven times.
Speaker 2: But if we look at how many are three or less, Brian,
it changes the whole va. My points at Vanderbilts.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, exactly. So, Yeah, this is a bit of
a different Obviously a pretty cheap line there, So hopefully
that helped you out. Guys. I know that there is
some conflict there. I think the three of us, though,
are in agreement that this line from a Power Ratings perspective,
is a little short. Let's go back to the chat.
Speaker 2: That's what makes this show so good. We don't always
try to give you best bets. We just break down
the game in our opinions. It's you that has to
make the determination, taking all that information to either play
the game or pass. I know a lot of shows
say I agree, I agree, I agree, and you think,
oh my god, it's a great play because all three agree.
I mean, these are games that may not be on
any of our cards. So if we don't have anything strong,
we don't bullshit you and say, oh my god, this
is a best bet. It's for you to determine. And
again that's what makes the Blitz the best college football show.
Speaker 1: There is, absolutely and we will all have best bets
coming up, of course, at the end of the program
here today, so stay tuned for that. I do want
to return to the chat before we get our run down.
There is a game I really want to talk about,
and let me tell you something. Okay, you could put
Dan Mullen's face right next to Bernie made off on
the fraud list because this UNLV team what they continue
to get away with week in week out. And yeah,
I'm a little salty because I had Wyoming last week. Okay,
I saw the snow falling Steve and Laramie. It was
our first snow game with the art. I said, oh
my god, these kids from that school in Las Vegas
aren't gonna be able to deal with that snow. Well,
guess what, Wyoming had not just one, but two punts
blocked and returned for touchdown. I would like to ask
you two. You guys have seen a little bit, maybe
more football than I have through the years. Name the
last time you've seen a team have two punt blocks
returns for touchdown in the same game. I couldn't remember one.
I'm sure it's happened, but I couldn't remember it. It
was absurd.
Speaker 3: Not when it's a single digit points spread. It was
like around four and a half. I mean yeah, I
mean maybe if it's a forty point spread. You know,
you just see everything happen. You see annihilation two really
bad defensive teams. That's the first day it jumps out
to me in this game. UNLB, by the way, playing
air Force for those that are joining this, and of
course when you play air Force, it's about stopping the run,
and that's really all you have to do against the
triple option. And we'll look at UNLB stats on the season,
they've been terrible against the run. They've actually been good
against the pass six point six against teams at average
six point eight against the run five point two against
teams at averages four point five. And Air Force, as
all these military academies do, they basically run for a
ton of yards. Although with that said, Air Force does
throw the ball a little bit more than in year's past,
and more than Army and Navies throwing. Air Force runs
about forty nine times a game. They throw about seventeen
two hundred and forty six rushing two twenty one passing.
I don't ever remember a service academy that's been that
balance as far as yardage. So I think if UNLB
struggles to stop the run, which they will, could open
up some big plays passing wise. And by the way,
Air Force five and zero to the over this season,
and part of that reason is because they do have
a little bit more of a passing attack. I would
like the up and over in this one. Check the
odds logic screen. The total is currently around sixty four
and a half sixty five the bigger totals on the board,
and you'll be a seven point favorite. I would lean
Air Force plus seven.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would. I want to take the points. Obviously
very bad because look it's not just UNLV with the
block punts. Last week in Laramie they were they were
out game by Idaho State and FCS team. The Miami game,
they were losing in the fourth quarter, then literally every
single player in Miami started getting hurt. It was unbelievable.
I didn't think they were going to finish the twenty two
guys in that game, and UNLV still barely won. I
really want to get to the window with the Air Force,
but Steve brought up some good points and the reason
why I'm probably not going to get to the window
at air Force this week. I may. I'm thinking about it.
I'll be honest with you, is that is the defense.
It's awful. They can't stop a nosebleed. I mean, so
ULV is gonna put up points. Yeah, this does. Ralph,
we just talked about it with that South Florida North
Texas game, betting to high totals to go over. This
is another high total.
Speaker 2: Talk about service academies, but Steve, talk to these are
not your father service academy. You know, against Navy they
threw twenty times they ran the ball tis you know,
forty times. So I am to the window with air Force.
I do not trust you ANDLV. You look at air
Forces rush, you know, yes they're passing more, but they're
still averaging five point zero yards per carry. When I
look at UNLV, this is a team on defense that
they haven't given up massive rush yards, but they're giving
up massive yards overall, and they're allowing five point two
yards per carry. They've had no sacks the last two games.
You have a pass rush that statistically are good, but
you look at the offenses of Idaho State, Sam Houston,
Miami of Ohio, and Wyoming and they're horrible. I mentioned
this couple weeks ago. Guys, remember teams playing in the
altitude of Wyoming. It's over seven thousand feet. They are
only a twenty three percent ats play the next week
if they have if they don't have a bye week.
So coming off a road trip to Miami back to
Wyoming now having the pressure of air Force as a
home favorite. Oh yeah, by the way, you may have
the Mountain West title game. I'm deck with Boise State.
We're not to travel to Boise next week. I do
like air.
Speaker 1: Force we've got some people. Hold on one second, that
was the wrong one. UNLV. Some people think that they
look I guess they are the Mountain West's only chance
at a playoff spot. I don't think they get there, though.
I think ULB's going to slip up. I think the
American gets the playoff spot. All right, we've kind of
at the middle of the show here, guys, and guess what.
We have an incredible special offer to tell you about
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could be returning to the program next week. We of
course thanks Steve for sitting in here with Ralph and I.
But there is a coupon that we are going to
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plaoffs as well.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a great special code if you want football.
There's also some great all sports packages. We got the
baseball playoffs going. We're seventy five percent this postseason. NBA
starts in less in two weeks. In less than two weeks,
the NBA season starts college basketball right after that. So
if you want a football special use that twenty five blitz.
If you won an all sport all access there's no
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now for seventy seven also a buy three months, get
the fourth month for free, or the best deal right
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All those details on my page, along with daily free plays,
including an advanced NFL play for this Sunday right now
on my page. Steve Merrill Wager talk dot com and
get there quicker with that cute shortcut you see on
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That's that's sassy. We have. That's a sassy, fun, incredible
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Speaker 1: Raw, Ralph, talk to me what you've got going on
this weekend.
Speaker 3: Thing?
Speaker 2: A great promo, Brian, you were very professional explaining that.
Thank you. I want to say first, I had a
crappy college football week. Guys, it's going to happen. I
lost a five percent on Friday, I went one on
three on Saturday. But I remind people of the old
Patriots days with Belichick and Brady. When you have a
quality service coming off a loss, you usually want to
jump on him the next week. It's always, you know,
Steve says, don't catch a falling knife. But again, if
it's only one losing week, I feel that is a
great time to jump on college football. Still twenty seven
and fourteen sixty six percent including last week NFL in
college football plays four percent and five percent thirty seven
and sixteen seventy percent. I will have an NFL five percent.
Those are six and one eighty six percent and NFL
teasers rated four percent and five percent sixteen and three
eighty four percent twenty five glitz. Save that or remember
if you just want to try us out for the
week the Weekend Warriors still in effect. My five percent
on Sunday thirty five dollars The Weekend Warrior just fourteen
dollars more for all of Saturday college football and all
of Sunday NFL plus any bonus Monday night NFL plays.
Speaker 1: And I will note that my college football card currently
five plays for Saturday, is posted at wt dot buzz
slash BP. Over the last week, guys, we have cash
not one, but two five percent plays. Told you last
week it was my biggest college football player of the season.
On Saturday, we cashed it with Cincinnati money line against
Iowa State. Of course, because Scott's Saderfield. You know, I
was so kind to you, Dad, and that's the thanks
I get.
Speaker 3: Unbelievable.
Speaker 1: Anyway, Yeah, well, you know what I'm gonna bring You
know what, Dad, I'm gonna bring up the fact that
I had Cincinnati over Iowa State again now. But you know, look,
because it with Scott's Saderfield coaching Cincinnati, of course, it
couldn't be easy. They're up thirty one to seven, thank
you very much. They're up thirty one to seven in
the first half, and I have to hold on for
dear life. Speaking of holding on for dear life, ay
yea yi last night, thank you for everyone who joined
me for Cubs. I know this is a college football program.
We did have a five percent on the Cubs in
the Major League Baseball playoffs, and to say that I
was watching the last six innings of that game with
my head down would be putting it mildly.
Speaker 3: I knew.
Speaker 1: I made peace with the fact very early, Ralph and
Steve the Cubs were not going to score it after
the first inning, and thankfully four runs was enough. I said,
Quinn Priester would stink, and he's stunk. But guess what
they took him out after two outs, so we didn't
get any more of him, but still two five percent
wins the last week w T Dot Buzz Slash, b
P and Jeffrey. You know, Jay Buff, I hope you're
not referring to my shirt here, my better shirts quite frankly,
you know, Jay Buff, I'm gonna push your question at
the back of the line right now in the chat room.
Speaker 3: After that.
Speaker 1: Rash.
Speaker 2: Wait, you know you you would expect Brian he's gonna
I'm gonna bet his his best bet is the Minnesota
Timberwolves are gonna come out with an axe over shoulder.
Speaker 3: Was being nice. I didn't make the brawny towels reference
or the lumberjack references, but it did cross my mind.
I was trying not to pick on Brian, but so hard.
Speaker 1: I think you guys know well enough. Never throw an
X around. Actually that's a lie. I actually did.
Speaker 3: God actually did extra on once al So it's harder
than it looks. It's harder to.
Speaker 1: I was in Detroit, especially when even drinking. I cannot
believe that that's allowed. That I can't believe that, Like
I'm like, wait a minute, you're gonna I'm clearly been
drinking for an hour. You're gonna let me throw this axe?
Speaker 3: Crossed my mind was the insurance policy has to be
pricey for this establishment. When I was in there.
Speaker 2: I went to Detroit and went out with a Waiger
Talk crew last year to ax throwing. Yes, I was drinking,
and I think I had one axe stick. I mean
it's hard, differ than you think. By ass it is difficult.
So those people that you watch on those shows that
go like this and hit it every time, there's some
skill involved there.
Speaker 1: Yes, all right, enough about acts throwing, Enough about the
Chicago Cubs, enough about my shirt. Quite frankly, let's get
enough to the chat. Oh, Steve, all right, Colorado or Iowa.
I believe that's Iowa State. That's because of Colorado is
hosting Iowa. Say coach Prime, I just mentioned that he will.
I believe his planning on returning to the sidelines. I
talked about my five percent was fading Iowa State last week.
I had been pretty critical of the cyclones on this
program the last couple of weeks.
Speaker 3: There.
Speaker 1: You got to tell you that guy preaking bench and
I'll be honest with you.
Speaker 3: By Brownie to super absorbent.
Speaker 1: Unbelievable. I am absorbent. Thank you, Steve. Yes, yes, it
would be Colorado or pass for me in this game.
I I I continue to leave. Iowa State is woefully
overrated again. They were down thirty one to seven in
the first half to Cincinnati Grant. Colorado does not have
anywhere near the offensive capabilities of the Maracats, but still
in Boulder, it would be Colorado or pass for me
on this game.
Speaker 2: I you know, I really don't have much except this.
I mean, it's much different than last year. Because if
you were looking last year having to play at Cincinnati,
a very physical team, and then going to the up
Temple Buffalos in altitude, it would be one of the
worst scheduling spots. But with no offense this year, you know,
and Slater and Staw both both playing poorly, they are
like one of the slowest paced teams. I mean, rarely
do you see a team be a top ten team
in pace you have the same coach. In the next
year you're a bottom twenty team in pace. So I
just point out that that system that I used to
look to fade teams playing a second straight road game
in Colorado, that not the situation this year.
Speaker 1: All right, Jay buff you've waited long enough to spite
you insulting my shirt. There. You did have some questions.
Ask you about three games here.
Speaker 2: That's getting greedy, isn't it.
Speaker 1: It is? Hey, you don't get them all in it?
Well you if you want get them all in one,
see what happens. You know what, we can all take
our pick though. That's great.
Speaker 2: Uh.
Speaker 1: He likes e CU, Purdue, and USC any opinions on
any of these e CU that is tonight. I'll grab
that one, I think there. I think what's the other game,
Brian Purdue in usc.
Speaker 3: Playing USC Ralph. So I'll throw that one to you,
and I can do Purdue if you want.
Speaker 2: Well, let's just wait.
Speaker 1: I'll do Purdue when you just hold off because I
like that, I'll tell you that I love. I think
USC is getting too many points against Tulaane. I make
that get I think that's a pretty close game. The
American a very interesting league. There's a clear top six
and a clear bottom eight. E CU and two Lane
are both in the top six. I think it's too
many points for the Pirates tonight. I know they've played
a weaker schedule than Tulane. Tulane's a hard place to
win at. But still I would take I would take
the six and a half.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Brian, I will say I made a Tulane five
in my simulation, so it's six and a half. Maybe
wait to get that key number of seven. And by
the way, real quick, Ralph. Ralph sent over to some
of us privately today the NFL chart margins of victory.
Very interesting to me that over the last three years
has been just as many six point margin wins as
seven point wins in the NFL, exactly the same the
last four years.
Speaker 2: So and you know what that is, Steve, all the
new analytics with the young coaches, when they're down fourteen,
they're going for two right away, so they're getting it
to eight or six. And that's changed the dynamics completely
over the last few seasons.
Speaker 3: Yeah, because it made me think today, Ralph. You know,
whenever you see a six and a half like this,
you used to always say grab it. Now you don't
want to risk it going to seven, even like Tulane.
But nowadays it's almost like, wait and try to get
that six because it's a double bonus. Whereas if with
East Carolina you don't want to risk it going down
to six now. But yeah, Ralph, I thought that was
very interesting this morning when I was looking at that chart,
that six and sevens are equal now, because when we
were growing up, it was always three and seven and
then maybe six afterwards.
Speaker 2: And with the miss stextra point five all of a
sudden is as relative as two ms, you know since
twenty fifteen. Well, you know what we should add Brian
and do the Minnesota Golden Golfers with them.
Speaker 1: Oh, there we go, there we go there where Paul
Bunyan's from. Yes, no one catch back in wanted to
do ECU.
Speaker 2: You didn't want us to tell any more jokes on that.
I'll tell you what I do like Purdue. First off,
Minnesota's defense. You know, Minnesota's offense against you can't you
can't quantify. Okay, yes, they scored three points and they
gained one hundred and sixty one yards, but it is
Ohio State. But again, when they played Rutgers at home
thirty one points, twenty first downs, at California nineteen first downs,
they have not been able to substantiate any long drives.
Now Purdue's defense has been poor, allowing five hundred each
of the last two weeks, but again it was against
Notre Dame and Illinois. But I have watched enough of
the Purdue offense that I do like this team. They're
averaging four hundred one yards per game. They're completing sixty
two percent, which isn't great, but when you're talking Perdue,
those numbers are like some of those previous perdus where
they had some great wide receivers. They're rushing game has improved.
It got very good against Illinois six point zero yards
per Kerrie struggled against there name, but again that's a
different story. I do think Purdue can keep this close
and perhaps even pool the outright upset.
Speaker 1: Okay, there you have it. That's a good looking lumberjack,
by the way you saw on the screen. And stay
tuned Jay Buff for a free pick on USC Michigan.
That will be Steve's best bet coming up at the
end of the show. Now, guys, normally I would not
bring up Kent State versus U mass but we have
had multiple questions on the chat. If I tried putting
this in the show Rundown, I don't know what would
smack me harder, the YouTube algorithm or Kelly Stewarts. But
again we have two questions about it. And this see
this is why I like the show, because we get
questions on games of Kent State UMass. These are the
bottom two ranked teams in my Power Rings at fts,
the two worst teams in the entire FBS. It's homecoming weekend.
We've learned a kent'sack party did Kent State University University,
but it's a fun place. I'm gonna tell you what
a guy who looks at the glass as being half
empty would tell you who in the hell would lay
points with Kent State. But a guy who looks at
the glass half full, Steve Merrill would say, I only
have to lay two and a half points against you, masks.
Give me the golden flashes in this game. But this
will probably at the very least, this will make the
Power Weekend edition of the Power Five. A good friend
of mine also his name is Brian, a Kent State alum.
He has a Kent State over one and a half
wins this season. I am rooting for you, buddy, because
you need this one. Because other than Akron, it's either
this or that to get two wins out of the season.
I don't know if either.
Speaker 3: If you guys have a yeah, this a critical game
for that one and a half season win ticket, to
say the least. It's also a critical line two and
a half threes mostly threes out there, but there are
some two and a half still. If you like Kent State,
you grab the two and a half. You don't play
around with two and a half. Three, no matter. Sixes
and sevens maybe are more equal now. Three is still
king and all college and pro football. If you like
U Mass you waiting to get three. There are some available.
Favorite can't state over five points in this game with
my seven thousand game simulation. My computer refused to run
ten thousand simulations of this game. It's so bad. And
by the way, what do we have one hundred and
thirty six teams in college football? I rate these two
one thirty two and one thirty four in offense, one
thirty five and one thirty six on defense right now
with my my ratings. So this is about as ugly
as it gets. On a most serious note, William and Mary,
of course still fcs U Mass used to be in
the conference back in the days. They won a national
title twenty some years ago. I'm hearing talk now that
they might drop back down to FCS. That's how bad
things are getting for the UMass football program and another team.
I'd be very careful with this season for that reason,
and we were going.
Speaker 1: To welcome them with open arms into the mac Ralph.
Speaker 3: Like I said, they're dropping the FC that's too easy.
Speaker 2: This could be the biggest statistical difference in almost every
game this season there. Massachusetts is minus two hundred two
hundred eight yards per game, that is number one hundred
and thirty five. Kent State is minus two hundred and
forty five yards per game that is one thirty six.
So not only are they last the bottom two in
the FBS, but listen to this. Kent State has played
the fifth toughest schedule. Massachusetts has played the seventy ninth schedule.
Massive edge. For me, those stats being equal with a
seventy four percent strength of schedule difference tells you Kent
State should probably be a touchdown plus favorite. Oh yeah,
By the way, these teams are also one hundred and
twenty nine and one hundred and thirty one in plays
per game their number. They're almost the two slowest paced teams,
So you have to think under as well, because each
is just going to try to run the ball, not
make mistakes and he gotta win.
Speaker 1: Mister ho if that is your real name, my free
play at the end of the show will be on
VYU versus Arizona, So State two for that. But we
got a rundown. We get to you, guys, we have
some We're gonna go from one end of the spectrum
Ken State and newmass to the other. Let's talk Indiana
in Oregon. This is a game that I talked about
on the midweek edition of the Power Five. I said,
Alabama Missouri. I do not agree with that line move
this line move, guys, I do agree with I know
Indiana struggled to step up in class last year against
both Ohio State and Notre Dame, but that was last year.
This Signetti has this team ready and Oregon, we all
thought what a great win that was, going into Happy
Valley and beating Penn State. Well that win doesn't look
any good now? Is good?
Speaker 3: Now?
Speaker 1: Does it? After Penn State fell flat on their face
and lost to UCLA. Not saying Indiana's live to win
the game. I think it's too many points, guys. I
would back the Hoosiers get in seven and a half. Steve,
let me go to you for your thoughts.
Speaker 3: Yeah, this open nine and a half. It's down to
seven and a half, even seven now at some other
spots right in the middle is my simulation. I've got
Oregon by eight and a half. So it's pretty much
spot on. I rate these as to top ten offenses
and surprisingly two top ten defenses. And the one thing
that did jump out to me in that Penn State
game was how slow of the start. It was three
to three in that game, and then you know, a
little bit of offense in the second half. I too,
I think Penn State a little bit of a paper line.
No pun intended. Franklin obviously is so do we really
read too much into that that win? By the way, Oregon,
I forget if it's the coaches pallar of the app pole,
they're getting like one first place vote in one of them.
Texas A and M's getting one as well. I don't
quite understand that. One thing that's really interesting about the
two poles, I think there's exactly it's either sixty two
or sixty six votes in both poles. Ohio State's getting
the majority of the votes, but in one of them,
Miami Florida's getting over twenty first place votes. They're only
getting like three in the other one. I thought that
was strange as well. It's Ohio state or passed for
me right now. The look aheadline this summer, I believe
was fourteen in this game, so it is a little
bit of a discount. The one thing that jumps out
to me, though, and I did a video this week
for the Illinois game, and I talked about how bad
Illinois lost to Indiana a couple of weeks ago. Seven
point home favorite Indiana went sixty three to ten, and
there was nothing misleading about that. There was only one
turnover the game. Indiana had over five hundred and seventy
total yards of offense. I've often said when you have
two top ten offenses to top ten defenses, I usually
feel like the offense is nowaday. Everyone always used to
say defense beats good offenses back in the nineties in
the two thousands, I don't think that's necessarily the case anymore.
I really kind of start siding towards the good offenses,
even when they're playing good defensive units. And this total
is very modest at fifty five, I'd probably sprinkle a
little in the over here. I think the side pretty
much where it should be, but wouldn't be surprised to
see some offense here. This Indiana offense is explosive. What
they did to Illinois was really eye opening for me
a couple of weeks ago.
Speaker 1: Okay, Ralph, your turn here on Oregon Indiana certainly one
of the marketing games on Saturday.
Speaker 2: Well again, I like looking at yards per game diff
on the season Indiana four, Oregon five, and the strength
of schedule isn't huge. Oregon fifty nine, Indiana seventy two,
so pretty close. So thirteen spots away, Indiana actually won
better in yards per game. I actually do agree. I
am not getting to the window in this and I
do have a trend I want to share with you,
which does lean Ore again. But my opinion is actually
going to be Indiana. When you have two top ten
teams with the line between the Nines, the home team
is twenty five eleven and four against the spread. That's
sixty nine percent. So what you know our Nines relatives, Well,
seven's maybe more closely, but it's telling you you're you're
basically competitively priced. No double digit favorite, so home teams
with two top ten teams sixty nine percent against the
spread and sixty three percent over under. Steve to lean
with your under. It's taken me a while to drink
the Signetti kool aid. And yes, I faded in last year,
you know, in the playoffs when they went to Notre Dame,
you know, and when they went to Ohio State, but
just another year removed for what he did in his
first season, and now with second season, he's building in
this culture where I think they can keep this game
very close.
Speaker 1: Okay, there we go. I would concur with that, Steve
in let's stay in the big ten here. Number one
Ohio State taking on Illinois. Steve references game very interesting, Steve.
I know Ralph obviously follows Ohio State very closely. I'm
gonna throw it to you though. First, mister Mary, all
the buck guys number one in the country and yards
per play margin. We've been talking a lot about yards
per play margin here on the show today. Ohio Stein's
defense number one in the country, allowing just five points
per game. You're gonna do well when you're giving up
only five points per game, and quarterback Julian saying, well,
he's completing over eighty percent of his passes. That two
is number one in the country. And yet you know,
there's a lot of talk as this team as good
as we thought. Obviously, Penn State and Texas are not
anywhere near as good as we thought. We're wondering as
Alabama gonna get up tip. Not a lot of people
talking about the buck guys, the reigning national champions. Here
they are laying to just north of two touchdowns against Illino,
and Illinois team that you referenced earlier got run off
the field at Indiana, that was at Indiana, though this
game is in Champagne Orbanta. Do we think maybe Illinois
could keep this one close at home?
Speaker 3: Always gonna be careful using the transitive property because you
always get the six degrees of Kevin Bacon. But this
is an early game at noon eastern. If Illinois wins
this game somehow is a two touchdown dog and looks
good doing it, then do we really start to load
up on Indiana at three point thirty eastern getting a
touchdown at Oregon? Because as I said earlier, Illinois got
smacked by Indiana a couple of weeks ago, and I
just can't overlook that I don't feel like they're ready
for primetime players. Interesting points you bring up, though about
Ohio State's two big wins not looking you know, as
the tough ofware. They haven't played Penn State yet, but
once again, you know, the Texas went not looking as tough.
Now that was the first game for saying two really
good defenses. By the way I do right Ohio State
is the number one defense in the country right now.
I rate their offense eighth, so they are actually a
better defensive team than offensively. My simulation has them by
two touchdowns thirteen point eight, so I think the line
is spot on where it should be. But at fourteen
or less, if you're going to play it, I would
rather lay it with Ohio State. You mentioned Julian saying
he has only had one road game. They've played four
home games in one road game. Now that Washington game
was at the press of win two, we sco twenty
four to six. And the defense has been extremely strong
all season long. They've held every opponent to single digits
and that's really incredible when you think about it, to
hold everybody in nine points or less. We'll be testing
more here against Illinois. Total has taken some money to
the under open fifty one. It's down to forty nine
and a half, fifty below that key number. Now, if
I'm going to play it, I'm laying it at fourteen
or less only. But I think the line is pretty
much spot on where it should be.
Speaker 1: Okay, Ralph, what do you think? I know you follow
the Buckeyes very close?
Speaker 2: Well, you know I will share one trend before I
break it down, And for Ohio State, when teams are
a double digit conference home dog off a conference win,
they are forty nine to fifty eight thirty seven percent.
That's a negative. But teams with five wins and no
losses with an average win of twenty one points or
more when their offense is allowing, when their offense is
averaging under forty under fifty points per game and their
opponent has a seventy seventy percent win percentage only fourteen
and fifty eight, that is nineteen percent against the spread.
So one situation on each listen I've watched, I've watched
the Buckeyes, and we're just going to continue to hear.
They have not given up a red zone touchdown yet
this year. They've given up two chief touchdowns. You look
at their halftime scores seven nothing, thirty five nothing against Grambling,
Ohio thirteen three, Washington seventy three, Minnesota twenty one to three.
I look at Illinois and I think they're a defense
that can keep the game close. They're not a defense
I trust for the entire game. So I'm gonna do
something funky here. You know, you could look at If
you guys haven't checked out the gold sheet, make sure
you did now that we're five or six games into
the season. The gold sheet has first quarter and first
half ats and over underlogs for every team, including full game.
How about if I pull out a under seven and
a half first quarter for Illinois Ohio State this week? Okay,
I just think Ohio State doesn't. They don't put Julians
Day in back.
Speaker 3: Off and early, you know, and the second start ever, right, Ralph, Yeah,
I mean they're not gonna ask him to do something
big in a hostile environment, because that's my concern with
Ohio state'stide in general. It's only his second road start
ever for a young quarterback.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and Washington, he didn't do anything late. Remember they
had pool the back later they scored, they were seven
to three at half, they only had one hundred and
thirty eight first half yards. And this Illinois defense, again,
while not superior, I mean they still are an upper
half defense that have held at least two teams to
a season low.
Speaker 3: Ralph, when I do my Top twenty five video this afternoon,
I'm giving you a shout out on that for this game.
I like that, and it's something I use a lot
of the Super Bowl. Of course the Patriots for the
money team with that, but teams don't want to make
the first mistake early in a big game. And as
I referenced earlier, that Penn State Oregon game was three
to three, laid into the first half, especially with.
Speaker 2: True Frost, especially with freshman quarterbacks on the road.
Speaker 3: Right, yeah, yeah, no question.
Speaker 1: All right, we got one more game in the rundown
and then we're gonna get to our best bets. Stay
tuned for those best bets. But we're gonna just real
quick hit on LSU South coastin This is actually a
game I don't have a very strong opinion on myself.
South Carolina is a team that a few weeks remember
when they were rated number eleven in the country, and
I said that is dumb, and sure enough it was dumb.
They are are not going to be back in the
top twenty five again. But I'm not racing to the
window to lay points with lsu Steve. You know, you
know this is a team who we thought they were.
They were as high as number four in the country.
Talking about wins not aging, well, it'd be Clemson in
the open every though, oh my god, what'll win that?
Speaker 3: Well?
Speaker 1: That everyone Clemson out and then they needed five DJ
Lagway interceptions to beat Florida. Maybe that win looks after
Florida beats Texas, that looks a little bit better. But
I don't know. These are two teams I'm not looking
to bet right, I'm gonna be real honest, guys, I'm
throwing my hands up in the air. I don't want
to play this game. So I'm interesting to hear what
you guys have to say.
Speaker 3: Well, real quick on this one for me is that
it reminds me a little bit of Florida. You know,
last week everyone nothing to do with Florida, drastic under
achieve they're a top fifteen team, and then al asudd
they beat Texas outright, you reference how far South Carolina
has fallen this year, Brian, so I can get a
little bit that sneaky feeling in this game as well.
With that said, though, my ten thousand game simulation has
LSU by seventeen in this one, which is double the
point spread. So I still think nine and a half
or less eight and a half the current line, there
is some value with LSU.
Speaker 2: Ralph, Well, you know, I look at this LSU offense.
Three hundred and sixty five yards at home against La Tech,
three hundred and sixteen yards at home against Florida, fifty
four yards against Mississippi. Yeah, you know, they had a
stat patter against Southeast Louisiana where they had fifty six
points and five hundred and thirty making their season to
dates add up. There's no way I can bet LSU
with that offense in this line. This isn't your father's offense.
In fact, they're ninety two in offense relative to their
opponents averages. You know, last week we did talk about
and I did say this though, I make LSU Death
Valley at Night and Penn State White Out the two
highest home field edges LSU and home day games. They've
only had seven the last couple of years they've gone
four and three against the spread. At night at home,
they're sixteen nine and one sixty four percent against the spread.
But if you exclude games as a favorite of thirty
three or more against de FCS teams and weak opponents,
it actually goes to thirteen and three eighty one percent.
But this one surprised me. At home at night off
a loss, they're only three six and one against the spread,
excluding a couple of games as a forty point favorite.
So you would think if you have a strong home court,
you're coming off a lost home field, and you're coming
off a loss, would be a better record. It hasn't.
I'm gonna just play under. I am not actually gonna
play under. I'm just gonna give a suggestion on under
South Carolina as slow as it gets their number one
hundred and thirty three in plays per game, they're averaging
only set fifty seven point six plays per game. And
if I like this kind of under against this kind
of team and this kind of line in a nighttime setting,
I would clearly lean first half under much more than
full game, because we don't know what Leonora Sellers is
gonna do. He got banged up couple games, he's only
had four touchdown passes, so for him to be on
the road is a little shaky for me. Full game,
first half under for me.
Speaker 1: All right, And this is a seven to forty five
Eastern kickoff down in Baton Rouge. That gives Brian Kelly
plenty of time to practice that phony Cajun accent he
likes to use sometimes for recruiting. All right, the show
has now reached the point where we're gonna go over
some best bets. If we have some time, We're gonna
try to some of the rest of the games we
have to talk to in the comment section, but we
do have best bets to get to. I did see
a kind remark there that I would like to acknowledge.
Acknowledge real quick here there it is Brian maybe somebody
last week. Thank you, Swizz. I appreciate that. Hopefully this
play can make you all somebody. It is my best
bet here for the show, we're going to take a
look at Arizona, and by you, I like Arizona plus
one and a half sure BYU is ranked and undefeated.
But who have they played? Portland State, Stanford, East Carolina, Colorado,
and West Virginia. Clients of mine will recall we faded
the Cougars two weeks ago at Colorado that ended up
being a winning bet, even though BYU did come back
and win the game straight up, but only by three
as a touchdown favorite. Colorado got a nice early lead
that was a wire to wire cover. This is going
to be BYU's third road game in four weeks, always
a tough spot. On top of that, they've got the
Holy War against you on deck. You know the players,
they're gonna say they're not looking ahead to it. Some
of them are, so I think it's a good time
to call for the Cougars to suffer their first loss.
I know two weeks ago we lost with this Arizona
team at Iowa State, but the Wildcats at home four
and oh, straight up and against the number. This game
is being played in Tucson. If you caught the blitz
last week, I said Arizona with wax Oklahoma State they
did forty one to thirteen to three touchdown favorite. Yes,
everyone is jumping off the Oklahoma State ship in the
wake of Mike Gundy's firing, but still, when you take
care of business is a three touchdown favorite. It is
worth noting and talk about taking care of business as
a home underdog.
Speaker 2: Guys.
Speaker 1: Last five times Arizona's been a home dog four and
one against the number, and we got to talk about
their defense. They have held three of their four FBS
opponents to season lows in total yardage. Not only that,
but the secondary seven interceptions, zero touchdown passes allowed. Give
me Arizona plus one and a half is my best.
For all my top plays this weekend, go over to
wt dot buzz slash VP currently a five plays posted
for Saturday. Steve, You're up next.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I got to talk about a game which is
one of the better games this week, and I think
and also it's gonna be a little bit of a
bonus game in my Top twenty five video because it's
one team that's just a bit outside of the rankings.
What I do, by the way, am i top twenty
five video this week is I look at seven games.
There are three head to head top twenty five matchups,
and I always dig deeper and give you some of
those bonus games. There's actually four more games in the
top forty and this is one of them. USC Michigan.
Michigan ranked fifteenth yet they're a dog in this game.
It always catches my eye when we get an unranked
favorite in college football. And if USC wins this game,
as I think they will, they'll be ranked next week.
They're currently six in the additional votes, which puts them
into thirty first, and they're two and a half point favorite.
I really like this line right now because my ten
thousand game simulation favors USC by six points on average,
So at minus two and a half or less, we're
getting that key number of three working in our favor. Yes,
Michigan's played a tougher schedule, but USC right now still
ranks as the number one offensive team in the country
in my ratings. They're averaging fifty nine points at home
this year, like forty eight and a half overall in
all games live offense. I just don't know if Michigan
can keep up in this one late. If you're going
to play it with USC and take that nice number now,
don't wait for it possibly to hit three. Take the
minus two and a half with the Trojans, as this
is a late game Saturday night, seven thirty East on
NBC National TV, And don't forget right now on my
page Steve merriwager Talk dot com. I have a bonus
free NFL play for this Sunday. It's free, don't cost nothing,
and if you want my personal best bets seven days
for seventy seven, buy three months, get the fourth month free,
or the best deal if you're ready to take a
series consistent investment approach is get the rest of twenty
twenty five for free. The next two and a half
months free when you sign up for twenty twenty six.
Full details, no promo codes need it, Steve merriwager talk
dot com and get there quicker with shortcut WT dot
buzz slash.
Speaker 1: Sm all right, there you have it. Likes USC minus
two and a half against Michigan Ralph. You're rounding us
out today. Please it is your time for your best
bets and to let us know what we got going on.
You got going on at your page as well.
Speaker 2: As remember guys, the exclusive twenty five blitz code valid
only for Steve, Brian myself or Ross Benjamin, who will
be back next week and he'll be doing many more
videos as well. So glad you're getting better, Ross, and
we're looking forward to having you back. We can Warrior
forty nine dollars. I will have a five percent play
in the NFL. I am going to Old Dominion, Brian.
And while I know it's very popular to say the
AAC is gonna get the extra playoff, Olden Menuon to
me is a legitimate shot to get to the playoff.
Their one loss is the Indiana on the road, and
they lost by thirteen in a season opener. I think
that can go away if they do run the table.
They have Marshall this week and then James Madison next
week in the app State, and then they'll be a
favorite the rest of the way. But this Old Dominion
team is dominating on offense and on defense. They've played
a tougher schedules scheduled in Marshall by twenty six spots
yards per play their number three in the country yards
per play diff Marshall one hundred and three, one hundred
spots better with playing a tougher schedule. You look at Marshall,
they were in a fifty four to fifty one bar burner.
Their D line got eight up forty six carries for
two hundred and sixty four yards. They had twenty eight
pass plays, so they are on the field for seventy
four plays, allowing twenty nine first downs. There's one hundred
and thirty six teams in FBS. Their defense is number
one thirty one, allowing their opponents one hundred and six
yards per game, more than they average on the season.
Old Dominions offense number five, their defense number thirty eight,
averaging two hundred and fifty eight yards per game and
six point one yards per carry rushing. When you have
a defense that is solid allowing three point nine yards
per carry, an offense that can run for six point
nine yards per carry, and when you look at Colton
Joseph's numbers and you say sixty five percent pretty good,
A twelve to four ratio pretty good, You've got to
remember this. He had a horrible game against Indiana in
the opener. He threw three interceptions and no touchdowns. So
while he's got a twelve to four ratio, he has
a twelve one ratio versus non top ten AP teams.
Old Dominion runs this game and perhaps runs the table.
Speaker 1: Ralph Michael saying, don't forget about Odu. The Monarchs. We
have Adam is an Odu graduate, as a matter of fact,
says too bad, Camp better here legally here there's your
Let me get that off the screen here real quick,
so you could take a look at our best bets.
Steve likes USC minus two and a half against Michigan
ralph As you just heard, like Odu minus fourteen and
a half against Marshall, I right, power, like Arizona plus
one and a half against the Yu. You want to
bundle them all together final price plus six oh two.
That would do it nice?
Speaker 3: All right?
Speaker 1: Yes, but Steve, I know that's not in your neck
of the woods there you, of course a graduate of
a fellow colonial school there. William and Mary awesome tailgate,
I'm being told here by Adam.
Speaker 3: At Old Old Dominion. Yeah, the Old Dominion. James Madison
Games is gonna be the biggest game in the conferences
here to former FCS teams on the Colonial, which should
make things a lot easier for one and Mary to
win nowadays. But unfortunately they've been very mediocre this season.
But yeah, it's good to see the local teams doing well.
And we talked about Indiana. Don't forget Signetty came from
James Madison two years ago. We had a monster season
as well when they went one A so he really.
Speaker 2: Didn't come from James Madison, Steve, he just brought the
entire games Madison team.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that is very true, and they make the playoffs
with it in this first season last year. So yeah,
I know Ralph uses it.
Speaker 2: I know you do.
Speaker 3: Brian. Don't underestimate coaches when you're handicapping college football and
college basketball. It's a very important element.
Speaker 1: Absolutely. We did talk about Colorado Iowa State earlier. If
you want to go back check the replay, you could
hear our thoughts on that. We are out of time.
I did see there was a question about Arizona State
and Utah. That is another matchup of an unranked team
favored over against top twenty five opponent. I'll say this
to whoever ask the question, Utah is a if you
want to do this, I think Utah is a good
moneyline parlay piece this week if you could pair it
with another similarly priced favorite, I think Utah is gonna
win that game. I don't see Kyle Whittingham losing two
big games of the same season at Rice Eccles. So
that is my take on Utah Arizona State. That will
do it for this week's edition of The Blitz. Thank
you to Ralph, Thank you to Steve for all the
incredible information they shared. Do not forget about coupon code
twenty five Blitz to save on any college football or
NFL or combo season long package. There you see that
coupon code right there on your screen. We will be
back next week, of course, live one pm Eastern. Until that,
let's catch some tickets.
Speaker 4: Sexy Sexy Devil.
Speaker 1: Wow