Speaker 1: I guess I'm very excited to talk about. He is
Speaker 1: a historian at the glorious Hillsdale University and Paul Ray works.
Speaker 1: I don't want to put words in your mouth, Paul,
Speaker 1: but you are a war historian.
Speaker 2: So you're one of.
Speaker 1: Those people that deeply gets into war and its effects
Speaker 1: and its outcomes and all of that good stuff. And
Speaker 1: today let's talk about a war whose history hasn't been written.
Speaker 1: Of course, the President has tried to name it the
Speaker 1: twelve day Iran Israeli War, but is it really a
Speaker 1: twelve day war?
Speaker 2: Paul Ray, welcome to the show. First of all, pleasure
Speaker 2: to be with you.
Speaker 3: Now, it's a forty six year war. It begins with
Speaker 3: the takeover of Iran, the flight of the Shaw, take
Speaker 3: of Iran by the heretic Sheeite Muslims following homony, and
Speaker 3: then they set out on a path that has led
Speaker 3: to continual conflict.
Speaker 4: It starts with the hostage crisis involving.
Speaker 3: The United States, and they were calling us the great Satan,
Speaker 3: and they were calling Israel the little Satan way back then. Now,
Speaker 3: this is when the crisis, which has existed for a.
Speaker 4: Very long time, comes to.
Speaker 3: A head and you know, we think of it perhaps
Speaker 3: as a battle between Iran and Israel that we are
Speaker 3: involved in. The larger battle is between Iran and the
Speaker 3: Sunni Muslim powers, and quietly, those people are welcoming what's
Speaker 3: happened in the last twelve days because it means a
Speaker 3: significant reduction in the threat to them. You know, just
Speaker 3: a couple of years ago there were Iranian attacks on
Speaker 3: Saudi Arabia on their oil fields. They're involved too, and
Speaker 3: I don't happen to believe it's over.
Speaker 2: You know, I don't either.
Speaker 1: And Paul and I were talking off the air about
Speaker 1: the conversations that I've had with my nephew in Israel,
Speaker 1: and he says, the Israeli people, and of course there's
Speaker 1: so much robust discussion happening every day in Israel about
Speaker 1: how to prosecute this war and why haven't the hostages
Speaker 1: come home? And you know, so many people are saying,
Speaker 1: we just want peace. But there's a larger faction in
Speaker 1: his view of Israelis who say, look, this is never
Speaker 1: going to end until we deal with the Iranian regime.
Speaker 1: None of these proxy wars. Hamas and Hezballah and the
Speaker 1: hoot these they're just they're just little tentacles of the
Speaker 1: Iranian regime, and this is their best opportunity, don't you
Speaker 1: think to perhaps bring some kind of finality to this battle?
Speaker 4: Yes, no, I agree with that entirely.
Speaker 3: Let me say, we may have just destroyed their nuclear
Speaker 3: weapons production. I say may because it's not absolutely certain,
Speaker 3: and they may have sent for refuges elsewhere, and you know,
Speaker 3: warehouses and so forth operating quietly that we don't know about.
Speaker 3: But it seems to me that if there, if the
Speaker 3: ceasefire turns into a kind of settlement, it just means
Speaker 3: they'll be back in.
Speaker 4: A few years.
Speaker 2: I agree.
Speaker 4: The crucial issue is the regime.
Speaker 3: And though I do not favor America going in taking
Speaker 3: over Iran and trying to run things, I do think
Speaker 3: it the only way that this will be over is
Speaker 3: if the radical heretic Shiite regime that was founded by
Speaker 3: Honuani forty six years ago is overthrown.
Speaker 2: What do you mean by heretics?
Speaker 3: So I would be hitting their political leaders.
Speaker 2: What do you mean by heretic?
Speaker 3: Decapitate that and the Revolutionary Guard? Because they're an awful
Speaker 3: lot of people in Iran who hate that regime.
Speaker 1: So what do you mean by heretic is she regime?
Speaker 1: What is that phrase specifically mean.
Speaker 3: Historically within Sunni Islam, there has been no difference between
Speaker 3: what we call church and what we call state.
Speaker 4: They were very closely tied to one another.
Speaker 3: Islam is a religion of holy law, so it is
Speaker 3: by its very nature a political religion that the law.
Speaker 4: Requires enforcement.
Speaker 3: And the you know, in originally within Sunni Islam, the
Speaker 3: caliph was what we would call a secular ruler.
Speaker 4: And a really just ruler at the same time.
Speaker 3: And what I'm trying to say is that distinction between
Speaker 3: sacred and secular doesn't exist right there among the Shehites,
Speaker 3: it did exist, and the site clergy of the Molas
Speaker 3: have never before been involved in ruling. There was always
Speaker 3: a secular ruler, and then there was a sort of
Speaker 3: secreate Shite establishment. Homani breaks with that and is regarded
Speaker 3: as a heretic by many Shehites, both outside Iran and
Speaker 3: inside Iran. So this is this is a sort of
Speaker 3: revolutionary movement, something rather new within Sheism, and there will
Speaker 3: be people, including religious leaders in Iran, who'd like to
Speaker 3: see it come to an end.
Speaker 4: Well.
Speaker 1: There I saw an interesting video on x a few
Speaker 1: days ago, and it was the Sun of the Chavran.
Speaker 1: Obviously he was thrown out of the country during the
Speaker 1: revolution in the late seventies, and he's essentially saying, look,
Speaker 1: we're ready to step in. We're not going to allow
Speaker 1: Ron to fall into a failed nation state. We're ready
Speaker 1: to provide structure and government that can lead. And I
Speaker 1: don't know if he said free elections. I'm not sure
Speaker 1: if he went that far, but essentially saying to the
Speaker 1: Iranian people, we have an alternative. How realistic is that
Speaker 1: for the Shaw's Sun or anyone connected to that prior regime,
Speaker 1: which was very US friendly, to be able to come
Speaker 1: back to power after fifty years of indoctrination of death
Speaker 1: to the Great Satan.
Speaker 4: It's conceivable.
Speaker 3: But my guess is if he went back and tried
Speaker 3: to rally people, he'd be assassinated. In other words, there
Speaker 3: are going to be people on the side of the regime,
Speaker 3: right there are many people against the regime.
Speaker 4: I'll give example.
Speaker 3: In two thousand and one, nine to eleven and stretching
Speaker 3: into two thousand and two, there were spontaneous demonstrations at
Speaker 3: soccer games in Iran. Spontaneous pro American demonstrations. I was
Speaker 3: in Istanbul.
Speaker 4: I lived in.
Speaker 3: Istanbul for some years, so I know that part of
Speaker 3: the world a bit. And I was at a party
Speaker 3: of journalists and I ended up in a corner with
Speaker 3: an Iranian journalist who was assigned to cover Turkey, and
Speaker 3: I asked him if the regime was going to go under,
Speaker 3: if these demonstrations were the beginning of the end for
Speaker 3: the regime, and he said no.
Speaker 4: The people who run this country right.
Speaker 3: Now were educated in Eastern Europe and the communist period.
Speaker 3: They know how to control the population. And then he
Speaker 3: paused and he said, there's one thing they don't know
Speaker 3: how to control their own children.
Speaker 2: Ah.
Speaker 3: And a lot of you know, regimes like this, think
Speaker 3: of the Soviet Union, tend to come apart when the
Speaker 3: generation that made the revolution has departed from the scene.
Speaker 3: So Garbatschoff was the first Soviet leader who was not,
Speaker 3: even as a very young person, a witness of the
Speaker 3: revolution of the Russian Revolution. And we may not be
Speaker 3: at that stage in Iran yet, but after forty six years,
Speaker 3: we're approaching it because the people who are really present
Speaker 3: for that are in their sixties at the youngest, and
Speaker 3: most of the people who led that revolution are older,
Speaker 3: so it's possible that this is the moment when they
Speaker 3: depart from the scene and other people in Iran assert themselves.
Speaker 3: This would have to come from within the armed forces.
Speaker 3: It probably will not come from within the Revolutionary Guard,
Speaker 3: but it might come from within.
Speaker 4: The regular army.
Speaker 3: So things could happen, and it would be a very
Speaker 3: good thing, because this obsession with taking over the entire
Speaker 3: Middle East, to which we are an obstacle. The Israelis
Speaker 3: are an obstacle, the Saudis are an obstacle. Egypt is
Speaker 3: an obstacle. That might come to an end, and you
Speaker 3: could have a reconciliation between Iran and the Sunni Arab
Speaker 3: States and Iran and Israel, but it won't happen as
Speaker 3: long as the heirs of Homany are running Iran. I
Speaker 3: don't think it's over yet.
Speaker 1: Trump came out the other day and said, well, we'll
Speaker 1: call this the twelve day Israel Iran War. And really,
Speaker 1: I do believe that Donald Trump, for all of his
Speaker 1: many foibles and faults, is probably the most anti war
Speaker 1: president we've ever had.
Speaker 2: He's not interested.
Speaker 1: I think he've used war as a waste of blood
Speaker 1: and treasure and capital and you know, a man power
Speaker 1: that could otherwise be devoted to building something economically, and
Speaker 1: you know that would be productive. I really think that's
Speaker 1: his worldview. But is he being realistic? Is this over?
Speaker 3: It's it's not over, but our direct involvement may be
Speaker 3: coming to an end. Hard to be certain of. That
Speaker 3: depends on what the Iranians do, right. You know, they
Speaker 3: could start by launching an attack on American basis all
Speaker 3: over that region and not one that's been forecast, and
Speaker 3: knowing that we can shoot everything down, but something big
Speaker 3: in West case it will erupt again because Donald Trump
Speaker 3: will not tolerate that.
Speaker 4: He's made that clear.
Speaker 1: Do you think the way that they gave Katara heads
Speaker 1: up about the attacks. I mean, they've essentially warned everybody, Hey,
Speaker 1: we're going to fire some missiles. The only reason I
Speaker 1: could think they would do that is because they don't
Speaker 1: actually want to hit anything. They don't want to hurt anybody,
Speaker 1: because they don't want a larger entanglement with the United
Speaker 1: States of America. But whereas when we were at the
Speaker 1: Cold War with the Soviets, we had mutually assured destruction
Speaker 1: on our side. I don't feel like the Iranian regime
Speaker 1: of Mulla's has that same sense.
Speaker 2: I mean, we've heard all of these stories.
Speaker 1: About how suicide bombers are going to get their seventy
Speaker 1: two virgins. Do they have the same sense of self
Speaker 1: preservation that ensured that mutually assured destruction would be a deterrent?
Speaker 4: It's hard to know.
Speaker 2: That's comforting.
Speaker 3: Religious zelotry comes into the picture. There may be decisions
Speaker 3: made on the basis of calculations that you and I
Speaker 3: would not recognize as rational. They think are rational. So
Speaker 3: I'm hesitant in that regard. Donald Trump's position has been
Speaker 3: They're not going to get nuclear weapons.
Speaker 4: I think that's pretty smart.
Speaker 3: Yeah, And our interests are deeply involved in They're not
Speaker 3: getting nuclear weapons. Our interests may not be so deeply
Speaker 3: involved in other matters.
Speaker 1: Can Israel go it alone and pull this off? I mean,
Speaker 1: I have a lot of respect for the Israeli military.
Speaker 1: I have a lot of respect for their technology. I
Speaker 1: do think that they in doing the kind of targeted
Speaker 1: strikes in Iran to take out leadership, to take out
Speaker 1: very specific military positions that may maybe weren't supposed to
Speaker 1: be known as military positions, they're definitely signaling to Iran
Speaker 1: that they know way more than they've led on about
Speaker 1: the Iranian activities. So can Israel pull this off if
Speaker 1: we essentially say, look, we'll sell you weapons, but we're
Speaker 1: not involved.
Speaker 2: Other than that, can they pull this off?
Speaker 4: I think so? You know.
Speaker 3: I think they know who their political leaders are and
Speaker 3: where they live. They certainly know a lot about the
Speaker 3: Revolutionary Guard, which is the sort of guardian of the
Speaker 3: regime and includes you know, true believers mainly.
Speaker 4: I think they might well be able to pull this off,
Speaker 4: but that would take a renewal of the war.
Speaker 3: And they're sufficiently dependent upon US for weapons and so
Speaker 3: forth for replenishing their stocks that they may not be
Speaker 3: able to risk a renewal of the war if we
Speaker 3: don't want it.
Speaker 4: Hard to know, I mean.
Speaker 3: One other possibility is that the remaining figures in the
Speaker 3: Iranian regime.
Speaker 4: Want out right, you know what I mean?
Speaker 3: Yeah, they want out of the whole mess, uh, And
Speaker 3: that would cause them to negotiate, and to negotiate seriously
Speaker 3: an end to the nuclear threat and also an end
Speaker 3: too their support for their proxies in Lebanon, in Yemen
Speaker 3: and of course in Gozam.
Speaker 4: It's hard to know.
Speaker 1: I'm talking with historian Paul Ray about war in general.
Speaker 1: I want to ask you this question because it seems
Speaker 1: like whatever ceasefires have been signed in the past or
Speaker 1: eventually broken promises made. Even in the Iran deal that
Speaker 1: was done with Obama, they did not follow through on
Speaker 1: their responsibilities to allow inspectors into certain sites. Has there
Speaker 1: ever been a negotiated peace that stuck when someone was
Speaker 1: not brought to their knees first.
Speaker 4: I can think of one.
Speaker 3: When I was living in Istanbul, I spent a fair
Speaker 3: amount of time on both sides. In Cyprus, there was
Speaker 3: a ceasefire in Cypress in nineteen seventy three. It's fifty
Speaker 3: plus years later and they haven't gone back to war.
Speaker 4: Now.
Speaker 3: Part of the story is the Turk's got everything they
Speaker 3: really wanted and the Greeks don't see any way to
Speaker 3: overcome the disadvantage in which they live, right, and so
Speaker 3: the two sides have cooperated. You know what, in Nicosia,
Speaker 3: one side supplies the water pre and the other side
Speaker 3: supplies the electricity pre.
Speaker 2: Everybody's invested, and.
Speaker 3: Neither side agrees to accept the status quo. Right, but
Speaker 3: they have done anything about it in a very long time.
Speaker 1: So let me ask this because I have watched documentaries,
Speaker 1: I've seen countless news stories about the level of indoctrination
Speaker 1: that has occurred in these Islamic regimes, whether you're talking
Speaker 1: about in Gaza or you're talking about in Iran. So
Speaker 1: in terms of being able to negotiate any kind of
Speaker 1: real peace with Israel with that includes the agreement that
Speaker 1: Israel simply has the right to exist, is that even
Speaker 1: possible in a population that has been not just steeped
Speaker 1: in hatred, but trained in hatred from birth. Often that's
Speaker 1: the part that I feel like is really insurmountable.
Speaker 2: How does that work?
Speaker 4: Well?
Speaker 3: You know, in a lot of these places, in Iran
Speaker 3: in particular, there are people who hate the regime and
Speaker 3: who would embrace it Israel for the simple reason that
Speaker 3: the enemy of my enemy is my friend. And the
Speaker 3: leadership in countries like Egypt and Jordan and Saudi Arabia
Speaker 3: and UAE have embraced Israel, and the reason is they're
Speaker 3: afraid of Iran.
Speaker 4: Now you remove revolutionary Iran.
Speaker 3: From the scene, what happens with the relations between the
Speaker 3: Israelis and the Sunni world, I don't really know.
Speaker 4: But they won't go sour immediately.
Speaker 3: And I don't think they'll go very, very sour, and
Speaker 3: that might change relations between the Israelis and the Palestinians,
Speaker 3: which is to say, if there is no outside supporter
Speaker 3: for radicalism among the Palestinians, there may be accommodations reached.
Speaker 3: There's certainly accommodations in daily life.
Speaker 2: Well, I think it's easy to.
Speaker 1: Embrace hatred when there's no cooperation with the person that
Speaker 1: you're hating. And right now, with the leadership in the
Speaker 1: Gaza Strip and to a certain extent, the leadership of
Speaker 1: the West Bank, there's no incentive to be more collaborative
Speaker 1: or to work with Israel. And I think that that
Speaker 1: does allow those barriers to not only be raised, but
Speaker 1: to be sort of fortified in terms of the way
Speaker 1: people feel about Israel. And we were talking before the break,
Speaker 1: and when I was in Israel, I talk to everybody.
Speaker 2: When I travel, I.
Speaker 1: Talk to taxi drivers, and I talked to waiters, and
Speaker 1: I talked to everyone. And I met several Arabs that
Speaker 1: I just chatted with, and they all said, I live
Speaker 1: in Israel because I want to live in a free society.
Speaker 1: They don't want to live in the West Bank. They
Speaker 1: don't want to live in Gaza because of the restrictive nature.
Speaker 1: I would hope that once people in the West Bank
Speaker 1: or people in Gaza got to understand that that freedom
Speaker 1: would come their way if they simply embraced a more
Speaker 1: open style and a better relationship with Israel. What are
Speaker 1: your thoughts on that as an incentive.
Speaker 3: I think it exists, but the obstacles are have proven
Speaker 3: to be insuperabole. And the key thing is do the
Speaker 3: irreconcilables have outside support? Ah Outside support is crucial. Look,
Speaker 3: the Russians supported the PLO. The Russians actually put are
Speaker 3: Afi in charge.
Speaker 4: Of the PLO. He was their man. They supplied money.
Speaker 3: Hamas received money from the United States, from Europe through
Speaker 3: the United Nations Relief Works Administration, and quite a bit
Speaker 3: of money from the Iranians. Earlier they received money from
Speaker 3: Saudi Arabia, but that's over.
Speaker 4: So it's hard to know. What I can tell you
Speaker 4: is people.
Speaker 3: In that part of the world are extremely good at negotiation.
Speaker 3: The negotiation. You know, if you go and do a
Speaker 3: bizarre the price is very often negotiable. They're used to
Speaker 3: negotiations and that could suddenly take over.
Speaker 1: Let's hope Paul Ray Thank you so much for your
Speaker 1: time today, fascinating conversation, and for everything. I wanted you
Speaker 1: to give me a firm answer on You didn't, so
Speaker 1: you didn't make me feel better, but you did educate me,
Speaker 1: so I will accept that.
Speaker 2: Thank you for your time today, Paul.
Speaker 3: Pleasure to be with you, and pleasure to be in
Speaker 3: Denver where I was once a third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh,
Speaker 3: and eighth grader.
Speaker 2: I told Paul, it's changed a bit since then. Thanks
Speaker 2: a lot, man. We'll talk again soon, I hope.
Speaker 4: Okay, take care