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<v Speaker 1>I guess I'm very excited to talk about. He is

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<v Speaker 1>a historian at the glorious Hillsdale University and Paul Ray works.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't want to put words in your mouth, Paul,

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<v Speaker 1>but you are a war historian.

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<v Speaker 2>So you're one of.

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<v Speaker 1>Those people that deeply gets into war and its effects

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<v Speaker 1>and its outcomes and all of that good stuff. And

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<v Speaker 1>today let's talk about a war whose history hasn't been written.

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<v Speaker 1>Of course, the President has tried to name it the

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<v Speaker 1>twelve day Iran Israeli War, but is it really a

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<v Speaker 1>twelve day war?

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<v Speaker 2>Paul Ray, welcome to the show. First of all, pleasure

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<v Speaker 2>to be with you.

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<v Speaker 3>Now, it's a forty six year war. It begins with

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<v Speaker 3>the takeover of Iran, the flight of the Shaw, take

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<v Speaker 3>of Iran by the heretic Sheeite Muslims following homony, and

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<v Speaker 3>then they set out on a path that has led

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<v Speaker 3>to continual conflict.

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<v Speaker 4>It starts with the hostage crisis involving.

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<v Speaker 3>The United States, and they were calling us the great Satan,

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<v Speaker 3>and they were calling Israel the little Satan way back then. Now,

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<v Speaker 3>this is when the crisis, which has existed for a.

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<v Speaker 4>Very long time, comes to.

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<v Speaker 3>A head and you know, we think of it perhaps

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<v Speaker 3>as a battle between Iran and Israel that we are

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<v Speaker 3>involved in. The larger battle is between Iran and the

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<v Speaker 3>Sunni Muslim powers, and quietly, those people are welcoming what's

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<v Speaker 3>happened in the last twelve days because it means a

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<v Speaker 3>significant reduction in the threat to them. You know, just

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<v Speaker 3>a couple of years ago there were Iranian attacks on

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<v Speaker 3>Saudi Arabia on their oil fields. They're involved too, and

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<v Speaker 3>I don't happen to believe it's over.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, I don't either.

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<v Speaker 1>And Paul and I were talking off the air about

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<v Speaker 1>the conversations that I've had with my nephew in Israel,

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<v Speaker 1>and he says, the Israeli people, and of course there's

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<v Speaker 1>so much robust discussion happening every day in Israel about

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<v Speaker 1>how to prosecute this war and why haven't the hostages

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<v Speaker 1>come home? And you know, so many people are saying,

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<v Speaker 1>we just want peace. But there's a larger faction in

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<v Speaker 1>his view of Israelis who say, look, this is never

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<v Speaker 1>going to end until we deal with the Iranian regime.

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<v Speaker 1>None of these proxy wars. Hamas and Hezballah and the

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<v Speaker 1>hoot these they're just they're just little tentacles of the

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<v Speaker 1>Iranian regime, and this is their best opportunity, don't you

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<v Speaker 1>think to perhaps bring some kind of finality to this battle?

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<v Speaker 4>Yes, no, I agree with that entirely.

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<v Speaker 3>Let me say, we may have just destroyed their nuclear

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<v Speaker 3>weapons production. I say may because it's not absolutely certain,

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<v Speaker 3>and they may have sent for refuges elsewhere, and you know,

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<v Speaker 3>warehouses and so forth operating quietly that we don't know about.

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<v Speaker 3>But it seems to me that if there, if the

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<v Speaker 3>ceasefire turns into a kind of settlement, it just means

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<v Speaker 3>they'll be back in.

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<v Speaker 4>A few years.

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<v Speaker 2>I agree.

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<v Speaker 4>The crucial issue is the regime.

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<v Speaker 3>And though I do not favor America going in taking

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<v Speaker 3>over Iran and trying to run things, I do think

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<v Speaker 3>it the only way that this will be over is

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<v Speaker 3>if the radical heretic Shiite regime that was founded by

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<v Speaker 3>Honuani forty six years ago is overthrown.

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<v Speaker 2>What do you mean by heretics?

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<v Speaker 3>So I would be hitting their political leaders.

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<v Speaker 2>What do you mean by heretic?

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<v Speaker 3>Decapitate that and the Revolutionary Guard? Because they're an awful

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<v Speaker 3>lot of people in Iran who hate that regime.

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<v Speaker 1>So what do you mean by heretic is she regime?

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<v Speaker 1>What is that phrase specifically mean.

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<v Speaker 3>Historically within Sunni Islam, there has been no difference between

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<v Speaker 3>what we call church and what we call state.

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<v Speaker 4>They were very closely tied to one another.

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<v Speaker 3>Islam is a religion of holy law, so it is

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<v Speaker 3>by its very nature a political religion that the law.

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<v Speaker 4>Requires enforcement.

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<v Speaker 3>And the you know, in originally within Sunni Islam, the

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<v Speaker 3>caliph was what we would call a secular ruler.

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<v Speaker 4>And a really just ruler at the same time.

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<v Speaker 3>And what I'm trying to say is that distinction between

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<v Speaker 3>sacred and secular doesn't exist right there among the Shehites,

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<v Speaker 3>it did exist, and the site clergy of the Molas

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<v Speaker 3>have never before been involved in ruling. There was always

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<v Speaker 3>a secular ruler, and then there was a sort of

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<v Speaker 3>secreate Shite establishment. Homani breaks with that and is regarded

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<v Speaker 3>as a heretic by many Shehites, both outside Iran and

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<v Speaker 3>inside Iran. So this is this is a sort of

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<v Speaker 3>revolutionary movement, something rather new within Sheism, and there will

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<v Speaker 3>be people, including religious leaders in Iran, who'd like to

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<v Speaker 3>see it come to an end.

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<v Speaker 4>Well.

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<v Speaker 1>There I saw an interesting video on x a few

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<v Speaker 1>days ago, and it was the Sun of the Chavran.

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<v Speaker 1>Obviously he was thrown out of the country during the

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<v Speaker 1>revolution in the late seventies, and he's essentially saying, look,

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<v Speaker 1>we're ready to step in. We're not going to allow

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<v Speaker 1>Ron to fall into a failed nation state. We're ready

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<v Speaker 1>to provide structure and government that can lead. And I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know if he said free elections. I'm not sure

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<v Speaker 1>if he went that far, but essentially saying to the

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<v Speaker 1>Iranian people, we have an alternative. How realistic is that

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<v Speaker 1>for the Shaw's Sun or anyone connected to that prior regime,

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<v Speaker 1>which was very US friendly, to be able to come

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<v Speaker 1>back to power after fifty years of indoctrination of death

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<v Speaker 1>to the Great Satan.

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<v Speaker 4>It's conceivable.

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<v Speaker 3>But my guess is if he went back and tried

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<v Speaker 3>to rally people, he'd be assassinated. In other words, there

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<v Speaker 3>are going to be people on the side of the regime,

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<v Speaker 3>right there are many people against the regime.

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<v Speaker 4>I'll give example.

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<v Speaker 3>In two thousand and one, nine to eleven and stretching

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<v Speaker 3>into two thousand and two, there were spontaneous demonstrations at

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<v Speaker 3>soccer games in Iran. Spontaneous pro American demonstrations. I was

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<v Speaker 3>in Istanbul.

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<v Speaker 4>I lived in.

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<v Speaker 3>Istanbul for some years, so I know that part of

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<v Speaker 3>the world a bit. And I was at a party

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<v Speaker 3>of journalists and I ended up in a corner with

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<v Speaker 3>an Iranian journalist who was assigned to cover Turkey, and

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<v Speaker 3>I asked him if the regime was going to go under,

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<v Speaker 3>if these demonstrations were the beginning of the end for

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<v Speaker 3>the regime, and he said no.

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<v Speaker 4>The people who run this country right.

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<v Speaker 3>Now were educated in Eastern Europe and the communist period.

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<v Speaker 3>They know how to control the population. And then he

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<v Speaker 3>paused and he said, there's one thing they don't know

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<v Speaker 3>how to control their own children.

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<v Speaker 2>Ah.

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<v Speaker 3>And a lot of you know, regimes like this, think

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<v Speaker 3>of the Soviet Union, tend to come apart when the

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<v Speaker 3>generation that made the revolution has departed from the scene.

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<v Speaker 3>So Garbatschoff was the first Soviet leader who was not,

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<v Speaker 3>even as a very young person, a witness of the

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<v Speaker 3>revolution of the Russian Revolution. And we may not be

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<v Speaker 3>at that stage in Iran yet, but after forty six years,

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<v Speaker 3>we're approaching it because the people who are really present

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<v Speaker 3>for that are in their sixties at the youngest, and

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<v Speaker 3>most of the people who led that revolution are older,

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<v Speaker 3>so it's possible that this is the moment when they

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<v Speaker 3>depart from the scene and other people in Iran assert themselves.

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<v Speaker 3>This would have to come from within the armed forces.

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<v Speaker 3>It probably will not come from within the Revolutionary Guard,

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<v Speaker 3>but it might come from within.

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<v Speaker 4>The regular army.

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<v Speaker 3>So things could happen, and it would be a very

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<v Speaker 3>good thing, because this obsession with taking over the entire

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<v Speaker 3>Middle East, to which we are an obstacle. The Israelis

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<v Speaker 3>are an obstacle, the Saudis are an obstacle. Egypt is

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<v Speaker 3>an obstacle. That might come to an end, and you

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<v Speaker 3>could have a reconciliation between Iran and the Sunni Arab

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<v Speaker 3>States and Iran and Israel, but it won't happen as

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<v Speaker 3>long as the heirs of Homany are running Iran. I

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<v Speaker 3>don't think it's over yet.

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<v Speaker 1>Trump came out the other day and said, well, we'll

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<v Speaker 1>call this the twelve day Israel Iran War. And really,

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<v Speaker 1>I do believe that Donald Trump, for all of his

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<v Speaker 1>many foibles and faults, is probably the most anti war

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<v Speaker 1>president we've ever had.

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<v Speaker 2>He's not interested.

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<v Speaker 1>I think he've used war as a waste of blood

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<v Speaker 1>and treasure and capital and you know, a man power

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<v Speaker 1>that could otherwise be devoted to building something economically, and

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<v Speaker 1>you know that would be productive. I really think that's

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<v Speaker 1>his worldview. But is he being realistic? Is this over?

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<v Speaker 3>It's it's not over, but our direct involvement may be

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<v Speaker 3>coming to an end. Hard to be certain of. That

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<v Speaker 3>depends on what the Iranians do, right. You know, they

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<v Speaker 3>could start by launching an attack on American basis all

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<v Speaker 3>over that region and not one that's been forecast, and

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<v Speaker 3>knowing that we can shoot everything down, but something big

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<v Speaker 3>in West case it will erupt again because Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 3>will not tolerate that.

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<v Speaker 4>He's made that clear.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you think the way that they gave Katara heads

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<v Speaker 1>up about the attacks. I mean, they've essentially warned everybody, Hey,

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<v Speaker 1>we're going to fire some missiles. The only reason I

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<v Speaker 1>could think they would do that is because they don't

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<v Speaker 1>actually want to hit anything. They don't want to hurt anybody,

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<v Speaker 1>because they don't want a larger entanglement with the United

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<v Speaker 1>States of America. But whereas when we were at the

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<v Speaker 1>Cold War with the Soviets, we had mutually assured destruction

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<v Speaker 1>on our side. I don't feel like the Iranian regime

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<v Speaker 1>of Mulla's has that same sense.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, we've heard all of these stories.

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<v Speaker 1>About how suicide bombers are going to get their seventy

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<v Speaker 1>two virgins. Do they have the same sense of self

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<v Speaker 1>preservation that ensured that mutually assured destruction would be a deterrent?

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<v Speaker 4>It's hard to know.

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<v Speaker 2>That's comforting.

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<v Speaker 3>Religious zelotry comes into the picture. There may be decisions

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<v Speaker 3>made on the basis of calculations that you and I

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<v Speaker 3>would not recognize as rational. They think are rational. So

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<v Speaker 3>I'm hesitant in that regard. Donald Trump's position has been

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<v Speaker 3>They're not going to get nuclear weapons.

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<v Speaker 4>I think that's pretty smart.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, And our interests are deeply involved in They're not

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<v Speaker 3>getting nuclear weapons. Our interests may not be so deeply

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<v Speaker 3>involved in other matters.

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<v Speaker 1>Can Israel go it alone and pull this off? I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>I have a lot of respect for the Israeli military.

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<v Speaker 1>I have a lot of respect for their technology. I

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<v Speaker 1>do think that they in doing the kind of targeted

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<v Speaker 1>strikes in Iran to take out leadership, to take out

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<v Speaker 1>very specific military positions that may maybe weren't supposed to

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<v Speaker 1>be known as military positions, they're definitely signaling to Iran

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<v Speaker 1>that they know way more than they've led on about

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<v Speaker 1>the Iranian activities. So can Israel pull this off if

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<v Speaker 1>we essentially say, look, we'll sell you weapons, but we're

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<v Speaker 1>not involved.

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<v Speaker 2>Other than that, can they pull this off?

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<v Speaker 4>I think so? You know.

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<v Speaker 3>I think they know who their political leaders are and

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<v Speaker 3>where they live. They certainly know a lot about the

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<v Speaker 3>Revolutionary Guard, which is the sort of guardian of the

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<v Speaker 3>regime and includes you know, true believers mainly.

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<v Speaker 4>I think they might well be able to pull this off,

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<v Speaker 4>but that would take a renewal of the war.

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<v Speaker 3>And they're sufficiently dependent upon US for weapons and so

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<v Speaker 3>forth for replenishing their stocks that they may not be

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<v Speaker 3>able to risk a renewal of the war if we

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<v Speaker 3>don't want it.

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<v Speaker 4>Hard to know, I mean.

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<v Speaker 3>One other possibility is that the remaining figures in the

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<v Speaker 3>Iranian regime.

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<v Speaker 4>Want out right, you know what I mean?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, they want out of the whole mess, uh, And

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<v Speaker 3>that would cause them to negotiate, and to negotiate seriously

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<v Speaker 3>an end to the nuclear threat and also an end

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<v Speaker 3>too their support for their proxies in Lebanon, in Yemen

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<v Speaker 3>and of course in Gozam.

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<v Speaker 4>It's hard to know.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm talking with historian Paul Ray about war in general.

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<v Speaker 1>I want to ask you this question because it seems

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<v Speaker 1>like whatever ceasefires have been signed in the past or

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<v Speaker 1>eventually broken promises made. Even in the Iran deal that

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<v Speaker 1>was done with Obama, they did not follow through on

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<v Speaker 1>their responsibilities to allow inspectors into certain sites. Has there

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<v Speaker 1>ever been a negotiated peace that stuck when someone was

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<v Speaker 1>not brought to their knees first.

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<v Speaker 4>I can think of one.

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<v Speaker 3>When I was living in Istanbul, I spent a fair

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<v Speaker 3>amount of time on both sides. In Cyprus, there was

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<v Speaker 3>a ceasefire in Cypress in nineteen seventy three. It's fifty

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<v Speaker 3>plus years later and they haven't gone back to war.

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<v Speaker 4>Now.

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<v Speaker 3>Part of the story is the Turk's got everything they

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<v Speaker 3>really wanted and the Greeks don't see any way to

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<v Speaker 3>overcome the disadvantage in which they live, right, and so

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<v Speaker 3>the two sides have cooperated. You know what, in Nicosia,

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<v Speaker 3>one side supplies the water pre and the other side

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<v Speaker 3>supplies the electricity pre.

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<v Speaker 2>Everybody's invested, and.

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<v Speaker 3>Neither side agrees to accept the status quo. Right, but

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<v Speaker 3>they have done anything about it in a very long time.

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<v Speaker 1>So let me ask this because I have watched documentaries,

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<v Speaker 1>I've seen countless news stories about the level of indoctrination

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<v Speaker 1>that has occurred in these Islamic regimes, whether you're talking

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<v Speaker 1>about in Gaza or you're talking about in Iran. So

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of being able to negotiate any kind of

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<v Speaker 1>real peace with Israel with that includes the agreement that

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<v Speaker 1>Israel simply has the right to exist, is that even

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<v Speaker 1>possible in a population that has been not just steeped

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<v Speaker 1>in hatred, but trained in hatred from birth. Often that's

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<v Speaker 1>the part that I feel like is really insurmountable.

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<v Speaker 2>How does that work?

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<v Speaker 4>Well?

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<v Speaker 3>You know, in a lot of these places, in Iran

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<v Speaker 3>in particular, there are people who hate the regime and

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<v Speaker 3>who would embrace it Israel for the simple reason that

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<v Speaker 3>the enemy of my enemy is my friend. And the

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<v Speaker 3>leadership in countries like Egypt and Jordan and Saudi Arabia

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<v Speaker 3>and UAE have embraced Israel, and the reason is they're

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<v Speaker 3>afraid of Iran.

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<v Speaker 4>Now you remove revolutionary Iran.

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<v Speaker 3>From the scene, what happens with the relations between the

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<v Speaker 3>Israelis and the Sunni world, I don't really know.

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<v Speaker 4>But they won't go sour immediately.

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<v Speaker 3>And I don't think they'll go very, very sour, and

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<v Speaker 3>that might change relations between the Israelis and the Palestinians,

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<v Speaker 3>which is to say, if there is no outside supporter

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<v Speaker 3>for radicalism among the Palestinians, there may be accommodations reached.

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<v Speaker 3>There's certainly accommodations in daily life.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I think it's easy to.

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<v Speaker 1>Embrace hatred when there's no cooperation with the person that

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<v Speaker 1>you're hating. And right now, with the leadership in the

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<v Speaker 1>Gaza Strip and to a certain extent, the leadership of

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<v Speaker 1>the West Bank, there's no incentive to be more collaborative

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<v Speaker 1>or to work with Israel. And I think that that

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<v Speaker 1>does allow those barriers to not only be raised, but

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<v Speaker 1>to be sort of fortified in terms of the way

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<v Speaker 1>people feel about Israel. And we were talking before the break,

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<v Speaker 1>and when I was in Israel, I talk to everybody.

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<v Speaker 2>When I travel, I.

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<v Speaker 1>Talk to taxi drivers, and I talked to waiters, and

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<v Speaker 1>I talked to everyone. And I met several Arabs that

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<v Speaker 1>I just chatted with, and they all said, I live

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<v Speaker 1>in Israel because I want to live in a free society.

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<v Speaker 1>They don't want to live in the West Bank. They

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<v Speaker 1>don't want to live in Gaza because of the restrictive nature.

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<v Speaker 1>I would hope that once people in the West Bank

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<v Speaker 1>or people in Gaza got to understand that that freedom

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<v Speaker 1>would come their way if they simply embraced a more

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<v Speaker 1>open style and a better relationship with Israel. What are

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<v Speaker 1>your thoughts on that as an incentive.

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<v Speaker 3>I think it exists, but the obstacles are have proven

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<v Speaker 3>to be insuperabole. And the key thing is do the

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<v Speaker 3>irreconcilables have outside support? Ah Outside support is crucial. Look,

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<v Speaker 3>the Russians supported the PLO. The Russians actually put are

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<v Speaker 3>Afi in charge.

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<v Speaker 4>Of the PLO. He was their man. They supplied money.

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<v Speaker 3>Hamas received money from the United States, from Europe through

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<v Speaker 3>the United Nations Relief Works Administration, and quite a bit

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<v Speaker 3>of money from the Iranians. Earlier they received money from

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<v Speaker 3>Saudi Arabia, but that's over.

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<v Speaker 4>So it's hard to know. What I can tell you

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<v Speaker 4>is people.

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<v Speaker 3>In that part of the world are extremely good at negotiation.

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<v Speaker 3>The negotiation. You know, if you go and do a

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<v Speaker 3>bizarre the price is very often negotiable. They're used to

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<v Speaker 3>negotiations and that could suddenly take over.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's hope Paul Ray Thank you so much for your

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<v Speaker 1>time today, fascinating conversation, and for everything. I wanted you

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<v Speaker 1>to give me a firm answer on You didn't, so

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<v Speaker 1>you didn't make me feel better, but you did educate me,

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<v Speaker 1>so I will accept that.

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<v Speaker 2>Thank you for your time today, Paul.

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<v Speaker 3>Pleasure to be with you, and pleasure to be in

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<v Speaker 3>Denver where I was once a third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh,

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<v Speaker 3>and eighth grader.

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<v Speaker 2>I told Paul, it's changed a bit since then. Thanks

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<v Speaker 2>a lot, man. We'll talk again soon, I hope.

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<v Speaker 4>Okay, take care