WEBVTT 1 00:00:02.160 --> 00:00:05.839 Leaning a light. Man like this man letting butterfly flapping 2 00:00:05.879 --> 00:00:07.400 his wing. Dig down in a forest. 3 00:00:07.440 --> 00:00:10.240 Man, it gonna cause the tree fall, letting five thousand 4 00:00:10.279 --> 00:00:10.839 miles away. 5 00:00:10.919 --> 00:00:19.640 Man, nobody seen nobody else. You don't need no man 6 00:00:19.879 --> 00:00:23.640 like you fall story and you got back like that. 7 00:00:24.440 --> 00:00:26.239 Man got black and dang on the panel. 8 00:00:26.359 --> 00:00:27.839 Man, Man, you don't matter. 9 00:00:27.879 --> 00:00:28.960 Man, I know. 10 00:00:29.359 --> 00:00:38.280 Anyway, All right, Hunger the die merchant, walk back to 11 00:00:38.280 --> 00:00:39.000 the J. Burton Show. 12 00:00:39.039 --> 00:00:41.880 How you doing, man, I'm doing good. Man. It's been 13 00:00:41.920 --> 00:00:44.320 it's been a while since we've talked online or even 14 00:00:44.320 --> 00:00:44.679 in person. 15 00:00:44.759 --> 00:00:47.840 It's been a while, I know, I know, an unfortunately 16 00:00:48.240 --> 00:00:53.399 long amount of time. Uh, you are one of my boys. 17 00:00:53.719 --> 00:00:55.880 Anytime we're at a party together, we're always having a 18 00:00:55.880 --> 00:01:03.280 grand old time. Maybe it's just the like the xenophilic Anglo, 19 00:01:03.840 --> 00:01:06.959 but I've been unreasonably proud that you handed me my 20 00:01:07.079 --> 00:01:13.719 med card. But in all seriousness, right, you have, shall 21 00:01:13.760 --> 00:01:17.920 we say, some experience with Lebanon and Lebanese culture, and 22 00:01:17.959 --> 00:01:22.599 obviously that has become much more relevant due to the 23 00:01:22.640 --> 00:01:27.359 ongoing war in Iran, so or war with Iran, I guess. 24 00:01:27.799 --> 00:01:32.640 So before we get into the kind of history of this, 25 00:01:33.680 --> 00:01:37.120 if you could. Could you just explain what is going 26 00:01:37.159 --> 00:01:40.120 on in Lebanon right now, right why has this become 27 00:01:40.560 --> 00:01:45.799 a front of a war, extensibly with Iran, which you know, look, 28 00:01:45.840 --> 00:01:48.760 I'm an American, I'm not great at geography. But Iran 29 00:01:48.799 --> 00:01:52.400 and Lebanon are you know they're different countries right? 30 00:01:54.000 --> 00:01:56.519 No. Absolutely, And just just for the sake of the audience, 31 00:01:56.560 --> 00:01:59.040 you know, my name's Hunger. I am a member of 32 00:01:59.079 --> 00:02:03.239 the Old Glory Club. I am the unofficial Hummus correspondent, 33 00:02:04.159 --> 00:02:08.000 so I get brought on whenever Middle Eastern Shenanigans start happening. 34 00:02:08.520 --> 00:02:12.400 I am also now the discount fear Assmodad because I 35 00:02:12.439 --> 00:02:14.599 love that guy. We're mutuals on Twitter, but he is 36 00:02:15.319 --> 00:02:19.439 he is just like wicked smart. And I'm the son 37 00:02:19.560 --> 00:02:24.479 of Lebanese immigrants. I am American citizen, but I've have 38 00:02:24.560 --> 00:02:26.120 a lot of experience in the Middle East. I've lived 39 00:02:26.159 --> 00:02:29.280 in the Middle East for quite a number of years, 40 00:02:29.439 --> 00:02:32.560 so I'm coming to this from that kind of background 41 00:02:32.560 --> 00:02:37.039 of I am ethnically Lebanese. I have been in America 42 00:02:37.080 --> 00:02:39.199 for a very very long time. I am American citizen 43 00:02:40.039 --> 00:02:42.599 and I still go back. I still visit and I've 44 00:02:42.639 --> 00:02:44.560 been there many many times. I used to live there 45 00:02:45.000 --> 00:02:49.280 for quite some time. But the situation that's going on 46 00:02:49.400 --> 00:02:56.039 right now is seriously not good, not good in any way, 47 00:02:56.319 --> 00:03:00.400 shape or form. Like Lebanon has been in a downward 48 00:03:00.520 --> 00:03:04.199 spiral pretty much since COVID and probably a little bit 49 00:03:04.199 --> 00:03:08.120 before COVID. Pretty much since twenty nineteen. Lebanon has been 50 00:03:08.120 --> 00:03:11.039 in like a real downward spiral, and like nothing hasn't 51 00:03:11.039 --> 00:03:16.919 gotten better. The rate of inflation is absolutely insane. The 52 00:03:16.919 --> 00:03:19.960 currency hyper inflated. This is this is what's funny. The 53 00:03:20.000 --> 00:03:25.639 currency hyper inflated in twenty twenty, twenty twenty one to 54 00:03:25.680 --> 00:03:29.039 the point where, like it wasn't Germany, you know, barrels 55 00:03:29.639 --> 00:03:33.280 I mean like wheel barrels of dollars, but it might 56 00:03:33.280 --> 00:03:36.520 as well have happened that way. Ninety percent of the 57 00:03:36.520 --> 00:03:41.039 population lost almost all their savings, almost like literally almost 58 00:03:41.039 --> 00:03:43.240 all their savings the banks. There was a run on 59 00:03:43.280 --> 00:03:45.000 the banks, no one could get their money out, there 60 00:03:45.000 --> 00:03:50.400 were capital controls. It was just really fucked up the 61 00:03:50.439 --> 00:03:54.560 way the economics have played out, and how the banking 62 00:03:54.599 --> 00:03:58.199 system collapsed after COVID, I mean before COVID and continuing 63 00:03:58.240 --> 00:04:02.879 through COVID. So it was Lebanon was already not in 64 00:04:03.199 --> 00:04:08.039 a good place. Lebanon is a very diverse country, not ethnically, 65 00:04:08.680 --> 00:04:14.960 but diverse religiously. It's a third Christian, well, actually probably 66 00:04:14.960 --> 00:04:18.600 at this point it's like twenty five thirty percent Christian. 67 00:04:18.639 --> 00:04:20.879 It used to be a third. It's probably it's probably 68 00:04:20.920 --> 00:04:22.959 less than that. It's probably twenty five percent right now. 69 00:04:23.839 --> 00:04:26.920 It is a third Shia Muslim, which is the same 70 00:04:26.959 --> 00:04:30.839 religion as Iran. It's also a third Sunny Muslim, which 71 00:04:30.920 --> 00:04:32.600 is the same as you know, the rest of the 72 00:04:32.639 --> 00:04:36.720 Arab world, like Saudi Arabia. And it's like ten percent Drews. 73 00:04:36.879 --> 00:04:39.720 And nobody knows what the Jews are. I mean they're 74 00:04:39.759 --> 00:04:42.560 they're important, but like they're for the for the sake 75 00:04:42.600 --> 00:04:47.519 of this conversation, they're not irrelevant esoteric ethno secretary and 76 00:04:47.600 --> 00:04:48.360 religious sect. 77 00:04:49.000 --> 00:04:53.879 The Drews are to religion what like the Thinns are 78 00:04:53.920 --> 00:04:56.040 to Europe. I will not explain on that. 79 00:04:56.879 --> 00:04:59.879 Yes, you probably know more than most on that. It's 80 00:05:00.360 --> 00:05:04.279 it's a weird I don't know. Yeah, it's like no 81 00:05:04.279 --> 00:05:06.199 one really, no one really knows what they are. No 82 00:05:06.240 --> 00:05:09.199 one really knows what they believe. I mean they if 83 00:05:09.240 --> 00:05:13.920 you ask a drewis person, Like what is Jruism. They 84 00:05:14.000 --> 00:05:17.560 don't even know themselves, Like the religion is like very 85 00:05:18.480 --> 00:05:21.399 very very well kept secret of like what they actually 86 00:05:21.439 --> 00:05:23.240 believe in. I don't know if like anyone has ever 87 00:05:23.319 --> 00:05:26.720 actually deep dived into it. But that's just some like 88 00:05:26.879 --> 00:05:29.000 esoteric lore. It's not it's not relevant to the purpose 89 00:05:29.040 --> 00:05:34.920 of this conversation. So, yeah, Lebanon has not been in 90 00:05:34.959 --> 00:05:39.439 a good place. It's a very divided country religiously, and 91 00:05:39.519 --> 00:05:42.959 this has caused a lot of problems. There is basically 92 00:05:43.720 --> 00:05:50.199 an enormous sectarian oligar key. Every religion in the country Christian, Sunni, 93 00:05:50.279 --> 00:05:57.319 Shia Drews has their own faction and everything that this 94 00:05:57.639 --> 00:06:01.120 how do I say? This results in the government basically 95 00:06:01.160 --> 00:06:04.920 being non functional. It's basically a failed state and all 96 00:06:04.959 --> 00:06:10.040 but name, like nothing works. The country doesn't have twenty 97 00:06:10.079 --> 00:06:16.160 four hour electricity, like people have own private generators to 98 00:06:16.360 --> 00:06:20.199 meet like a half of their electricity demands. There's they 99 00:06:20.199 --> 00:06:23.399 don't have twenty four hour running water. They have private 100 00:06:23.439 --> 00:06:27.279 water companies that supply half of the water in the 101 00:06:27.399 --> 00:06:31.399 entire country. Because the state might as well not exist. 102 00:06:31.759 --> 00:06:36.040 It's literally a failed state and all but name beautiful country, 103 00:06:36.639 --> 00:06:39.279 an incredible society. Like this is like I say all this, 104 00:06:40.160 --> 00:06:45.920 but like it's not Somalia, like it's people do have capital, 105 00:06:45.959 --> 00:06:49.920 people do have wealth. It's more like Brazil in that sense. 106 00:06:53.560 --> 00:06:58.040 So what is currently happening as far as this war 107 00:06:58.519 --> 00:07:02.319 in Lebanon? Right? Who is fighting there? You know, what 108 00:07:02.480 --> 00:07:05.920 are the teams so to speak? And you know what 109 00:07:06.040 --> 00:07:08.639 is that like for I'm obviously that's a vague question, 110 00:07:08.680 --> 00:07:13.079 but like what are the conditions like on the ground. 111 00:07:12.879 --> 00:07:17.480 No, for sure. So why Lebanon is important and why 112 00:07:17.560 --> 00:07:20.120 Lebanon keeps coming up and all of these and all 113 00:07:20.160 --> 00:07:24.800 of these discussions about the Middle East and Iran is 114 00:07:24.800 --> 00:07:28.240 for two reasons. That one, it has a border with Israel. 115 00:07:29.240 --> 00:07:31.399 It is on the northern border of Israel. It's next 116 00:07:31.439 --> 00:07:34.680 to Syria as well. Syria and Lebanon share the northern 117 00:07:34.680 --> 00:07:39.480 border with our favorite democracy. This is one of these 118 00:07:39.480 --> 00:07:44.079 seven fronts that the Iranians have been activating, you know, 119 00:07:44.120 --> 00:07:47.079 ever since this showdown has happened, like ever since the 120 00:07:47.079 --> 00:07:50.160 show then happened over the past many years. You know, 121 00:07:51.360 --> 00:07:54.160 Lebanon was being bombed by Israel in twenty twenty four, 122 00:07:55.079 --> 00:07:57.759 Lebanon was being bombed by Israel during the Twelve Day War. 123 00:07:59.800 --> 00:08:03.600 So that's a very big reason. The other big reason 124 00:08:03.680 --> 00:08:07.879 is because a third of the Lebanese population is Shia Muslim, 125 00:08:08.040 --> 00:08:10.879 which is the same religion as i Ran. I should 126 00:08:10.879 --> 00:08:17.360 probably explain why that's the case, Like the Iranians view 127 00:08:18.279 --> 00:08:23.879 the Shia Lebanese the same way as the Americans view 128 00:08:23.920 --> 00:08:27.519 the Israelis. In some in some sense, there is actually 129 00:08:28.199 --> 00:08:35.039 a conspiracy theory among the secular liberal Iranians that, like 130 00:08:35.960 --> 00:08:39.480 the Iranian government is controlled by the Lebanese mafia or 131 00:08:39.480 --> 00:08:42.919 the Lebanese lobby, you know, in all and all but name, 132 00:08:43.039 --> 00:08:47.679 this is a similar relationship that America has to Israel 133 00:08:47.759 --> 00:08:51.159 that Iran has to Lebanon and particularly the Shia. I mean, 134 00:08:51.159 --> 00:08:54.240 the Iranians don't care about the Sundays, the Aaranians don't 135 00:08:54.240 --> 00:08:57.200 care about the Christians for better, for better or worse, 136 00:08:57.240 --> 00:09:01.200 but they absolutely care about the leban Asia the same 137 00:09:01.200 --> 00:09:05.240 way that Americans care about the Israelis. And the reason 138 00:09:05.279 --> 00:09:08.559 for that is actually it's actually it goes much deeper 139 00:09:08.759 --> 00:09:15.480 into the history then you probably think that in the 140 00:09:15.559 --> 00:09:19.879 sixteenth century, you know, all the way back then, Shia 141 00:09:20.000 --> 00:09:27.480 Muslims in Lebanon and Iraq were imported to Iran. I 142 00:09:27.519 --> 00:09:32.240 mean Iran was already Iran was already Shia. But the 143 00:09:32.240 --> 00:09:39.240 ideology of these Lebanese and Iraqi clerics was used by 144 00:09:39.279 --> 00:09:42.320 the Safavid Empire. The Safavid Empire was the was like 145 00:09:42.879 --> 00:09:46.240 one of the great Persian empires, like we we remember 146 00:09:46.320 --> 00:09:50.559 ancient Persia, like the a Kaemenids, the Sasanians, we remember those. 147 00:09:50.600 --> 00:09:56.279 But after the Muslim conquests, like Iran was occupied. Iran 148 00:09:56.399 --> 00:10:01.799 was occupied and conquered for centuries, and the nation the 149 00:10:02.159 --> 00:10:06.200 great Persian empire that sprung out and like reconquered all 150 00:10:06.320 --> 00:10:09.799 that land and like liberated the Persians more or less, 151 00:10:10.240 --> 00:10:15.440 was a Shiite Islamic empire known as the Safavids and 152 00:10:15.480 --> 00:10:22.320 the Saphavid government, and the emperor is Maiel. Yeah, I believe. 153 00:10:22.360 --> 00:10:26.440 I believe it's emperor is May. He imported these Lebanese 154 00:10:26.440 --> 00:10:31.720 and Iraqi clerics and they taught the state ideology of Islam. 155 00:10:32.720 --> 00:10:36.519 And the two pillars of you know, the Safavid Empire 156 00:10:36.720 --> 00:10:39.960 were the emperor, the Shaw as we know it today, 157 00:10:40.000 --> 00:10:42.519 the Shaw is the emperor. The two pillars of the 158 00:10:42.559 --> 00:10:46.600 state were the Shaw and the clerics, the Mullahs. So 159 00:10:46.879 --> 00:10:51.440 this relationship between the Lebanese and the Iraqis and the Persians, 160 00:10:52.279 --> 00:10:55.080 even though they're different, they're ethnically different. Like Persians are 161 00:10:55.080 --> 00:10:58.080 not Arabs. Any Persian will tell you that if you 162 00:10:58.200 --> 00:11:01.960 just asked them, Persians are not Arabs. But the Lebanese 163 00:11:02.000 --> 00:11:08.000 in the Iraqi Shia literally intermarried so thoroughly into the 164 00:11:09.120 --> 00:11:14.080 clerical class, the Mola class, that they're basically indistinguishable at 165 00:11:14.080 --> 00:11:17.840 this point, and that class of Mola's is what's running 166 00:11:18.279 --> 00:11:20.720 Iran today. And this is why it's important to Iran. 167 00:11:20.799 --> 00:11:23.919 This is a This is the special relationship that the 168 00:11:24.000 --> 00:11:26.759 Lebanese and the Iranians have, the Shia Lebanese and the 169 00:11:26.799 --> 00:11:32.720 Iranians have, so. 170 00:11:32.679 --> 00:11:38.039 Obviously that explains the kind of cultural ties. But as 171 00:11:38.120 --> 00:11:43.840 regards this kind of current war, I guess, just because 172 00:11:43.879 --> 00:11:47.440 I haven't been following this your day to day, at 173 00:11:47.480 --> 00:11:51.320 what point did Lebanon become a theater in this war? 174 00:11:51.679 --> 00:11:54.240 Was it immediately? Was it something that was slowly walked 175 00:11:54.279 --> 00:11:56.679 into because I think, like a lot of people, I 176 00:11:56.759 --> 00:12:00.480 primarily became aware of it once it became a sort 177 00:12:00.480 --> 00:12:04.320 of contentious part of the negotiations for this sort of 178 00:12:04.879 --> 00:12:10.559 like abortive forty eight hour cease fire whatever we're technically in. 179 00:12:10.639 --> 00:12:13.720 It's a very bizarre situation on that front. But when 180 00:12:13.759 --> 00:12:15.960 did violence pick back up in Lebanon? 181 00:12:17.120 --> 00:12:21.279 So, for I guess the best way to address that 182 00:12:21.440 --> 00:12:28.039 is over the past fifty years, pretty much since yeah, 183 00:12:28.120 --> 00:12:30.639 I would say pretty much since nineteen seventy nineteen seventy five. 184 00:12:32.759 --> 00:12:37.960 Lebanon has been a front against Israel for many people. 185 00:12:38.559 --> 00:12:42.799 Before I ran, it was a front for the Syrians. 186 00:12:42.840 --> 00:12:46.240 Before the Syrians, it was a front for the Palestinians 187 00:12:46.720 --> 00:12:50.720 because many Palestinians escaped Palestine into Lebanon. They crossed the 188 00:12:50.799 --> 00:12:53.919 northern border and they set up molist Are groups to 189 00:12:53.960 --> 00:12:58.399 fight the Israelis, you know, in southern Lebanon. So Lebanon 190 00:12:58.399 --> 00:13:01.720 has always been a front against Israel, willingly or unwillingly 191 00:13:01.759 --> 00:13:06.519 at many times, many many times. But the particular Iranian 192 00:13:06.559 --> 00:13:13.919 element came into existence after the Islamic Revolution in nineteen 193 00:13:13.960 --> 00:13:17.759 seventy nine, when the Iranians you know, overthrew the Shaw, 194 00:13:18.720 --> 00:13:24.840 the pro Western Shaw. The Mola class was you know, elevated. 195 00:13:24.960 --> 00:13:27.559 The Mola class was running the entire, the entire show, 196 00:13:28.440 --> 00:13:33.159 and Ayatola Holmeni and all of these other clerics that 197 00:13:33.360 --> 00:13:40.120 had intermarried with the Shia, Lebanese started sending money and 198 00:13:40.200 --> 00:13:46.919 weapons to local Shiites in the region and in particularly Lebanon. 199 00:13:48.159 --> 00:13:51.840 This led in the early eighties to the creation of 200 00:13:51.919 --> 00:13:55.799 the group we know today as Hesbela. Hezbelah was born 201 00:13:56.840 --> 00:14:02.799 basically born in nineteen eighty two as a reaction to 202 00:14:03.200 --> 00:14:08.679 the nineteen eighty two Israeli invasion of Lebanon. Israel invades 203 00:14:08.720 --> 00:14:10.720 Lebanon in nineteen eighty two. There are many reasons why 204 00:14:10.720 --> 00:14:14.279 they invaded. It's a very, very long story. I am 205 00:14:14.279 --> 00:14:17.399 not going to go into the huge topic of the 206 00:14:17.440 --> 00:14:20.639 Lebanese Civil War. That's just a huge topic in and 207 00:14:20.679 --> 00:14:23.240 of itself. But Israel invades Lebanon in nineteen eighty two 208 00:14:24.080 --> 00:14:28.519 and occupies half the country. Half of that half of 209 00:14:28.559 --> 00:14:34.080 that country is where all the sites of Lebanon lived. 210 00:14:34.240 --> 00:14:36.720 So the Lebanese sites were living under the oppression of 211 00:14:36.759 --> 00:14:40.559 the Israelis and the Iranians who had intermarried with them. 212 00:14:40.799 --> 00:14:45.960 And I mean like Hassan Nosrolla, who was the most 213 00:14:45.960 --> 00:14:50.600 recent leader of Hezbolah before he was assassinated two years ago. 214 00:14:51.399 --> 00:14:55.639 I believe a son is married to the daughter of Ayatodahamani. 215 00:14:56.720 --> 00:14:59.759 So like this interimarriage has existed for a very very 216 00:14:59.799 --> 00:15:03.840 long time, like these people intermarry each other all the time, 217 00:15:04.080 --> 00:15:07.480 because this is the clerical class, and the clerics in Iran, 218 00:15:07.759 --> 00:15:11.600 you know, are very religious extremists, and so are the Shiahs. 219 00:15:12.000 --> 00:15:16.559 So Israel invades Lebanon in nineteen eighty two, it is 220 00:15:16.600 --> 00:15:18.840 a very brutal and bloody invasion. It is a very 221 00:15:18.960 --> 00:15:25.600 brutal and bloody occupation. Israel occupies southern Lebanon for twenty 222 00:15:25.679 --> 00:15:29.480 years from nineteen seventy eight. There was an early invasion 223 00:15:29.480 --> 00:15:34.360 in nineteen seventy eight. Again many, many such reasons. I'm 224 00:15:34.360 --> 00:15:37.200 not going to get into the whole Lebanese Civil war. 225 00:15:37.360 --> 00:15:41.080 Israel invade southern Lebanon nineteen seventy eight, They occupy half 226 00:15:41.080 --> 00:15:44.519 the country in nineteen eighty two, and they occupy southern 227 00:15:44.600 --> 00:15:49.919 Lebanon for twenty two years. Under that time, a large 228 00:15:50.120 --> 00:15:54.240 percentage of the Lebanese sites were living under Israeli occupation. 229 00:15:55.159 --> 00:15:58.519 And this was the well that has blood drew upon. 230 00:15:59.120 --> 00:16:04.720 With Iranian funding, Iranian you know, secret services, Iranian special forces, 231 00:16:04.759 --> 00:16:08.360 Iranian training, Iranian technology, all of these things were transferred 232 00:16:08.399 --> 00:16:12.200 to their cousins in Lebanon to fight this war and 233 00:16:12.240 --> 00:16:18.679 to resist the occupation. Israel withdrew from Lebanon in the 234 00:16:18.759 --> 00:16:22.519 year two thousand. You know, was that a good decision 235 00:16:22.559 --> 00:16:25.759 on their part? I don't know. But Israel withdrew from 236 00:16:25.840 --> 00:16:28.919 Lebanon in the year two thousand, but the struggle of 237 00:16:28.960 --> 00:16:34.840 the resistance was kept alive. Because Lebanon is a failed state. 238 00:16:35.720 --> 00:16:40.440 The army is not big. The national army, I should say, then, 239 00:16:40.559 --> 00:16:42.759 national Army of Lebanon. We do have a national army 240 00:16:43.480 --> 00:16:45.639 that is separate from HESBLA. These are not the same, 241 00:16:45.799 --> 00:16:49.600 These are not the same thing at all. Is incredibly weak, 242 00:16:50.039 --> 00:16:54.039 incredibly outdated. We do have some really cool, some really 243 00:16:54.039 --> 00:16:57.799 really good special forces that have trained with like US 244 00:16:57.919 --> 00:17:00.919 Marines and Green Berets. But this is not a This 245 00:17:01.000 --> 00:17:04.920 is not a real national army. It is a militarized 246 00:17:05.039 --> 00:17:09.119 police force. This is not a real conventional army. There's 247 00:17:09.200 --> 00:17:12.640 nothing the Lebanese army could do to stop the Israelis 248 00:17:13.000 --> 00:17:15.119 or fight the Israelis. It's just like, this is just 249 00:17:15.200 --> 00:17:20.839 the reality. So Hesbelah not being a national army, not 250 00:17:21.039 --> 00:17:26.160 being bound by the laws of states, being a militia 251 00:17:26.200 --> 00:17:31.559 group could use asymmetric war to defend Lebanon, but also 252 00:17:31.640 --> 00:17:36.440 more importantly to advance the interests of Iran visa the Israel. 253 00:17:37.839 --> 00:17:41.559 There was another war between Hesbela and Israel in two 254 00:17:41.559 --> 00:17:46.799 thousand and six. There have been clashes. I mean, Israel 255 00:17:46.920 --> 00:17:52.839 again again invaded Lebanon in twenty twenty four. It bombed 256 00:17:52.960 --> 00:17:55.759 Lebanon in twenty twenty five during the Twelve Day War. 257 00:17:56.240 --> 00:17:59.839 It is currently invading and bombing Lebanon now in the 258 00:18:00.039 --> 00:18:04.079 all of this war, and it is Hezbolah versus Israel, 259 00:18:04.279 --> 00:18:11.000 this militant Shia group that was founded by extremist Chia 260 00:18:11.079 --> 00:18:15.880 Muslims to drive the Israelis out of occupied Lebanon and 261 00:18:16.000 --> 00:18:18.920 gets all of its funding and weapons and and tech 262 00:18:19.200 --> 00:18:22.799 and you know intel from Mother Iran. I guess you 263 00:18:22.839 --> 00:18:26.039 could say this is still going on to this day 264 00:18:26.599 --> 00:18:31.920 and Israel is still invading Lebanon. It's the ceasefire after 265 00:18:32.039 --> 00:18:35.240 you know, after Israel broke the ceasefire, it literally bombed 266 00:18:36.119 --> 00:18:41.200 the entire country, especially Bari was hit particularly hard. You know, 267 00:18:41.359 --> 00:18:44.160 hundreds of people died, I mean like over like a 268 00:18:44.240 --> 00:18:48.519 couple thousand people were injured and needed like blood donations. 269 00:18:49.559 --> 00:18:51.799 It was it was just terrible. But after that you know, 270 00:18:51.880 --> 00:18:56.279 after that bombing run Israel kind of Israel basically promised 271 00:18:56.319 --> 00:18:59.319 the Americans like, Okay, we're going to stop bombing Beiruts, 272 00:18:59.400 --> 00:19:01.319 you know, the capital city, but we're not going to 273 00:19:01.359 --> 00:19:04.799 stop our invasion. The invasion is still happening right now, 274 00:19:05.440 --> 00:19:08.640 and the only people resisting the invasion right now are Hesbela. 275 00:19:11.559 --> 00:19:17.240 So one of the claims you see made by shall 276 00:19:17.319 --> 00:19:25.440 we say, motivated partisans in this sort of discourse is 277 00:19:25.880 --> 00:19:29.359 you will hear people say things like, oh, well, you know, 278 00:19:29.400 --> 00:19:33.359 the the Israeli actions in Lebanon are working. They're making 279 00:19:33.440 --> 00:19:37.400 Hesbelah less and less popular. Right, people on the ground 280 00:19:37.440 --> 00:19:43.319 are blaming Hesbela for these Israeli strikes, and soon they 281 00:19:43.359 --> 00:19:47.319 will basically have had enough and say, you know what, Hesbela, 282 00:19:47.440 --> 00:19:50.440 you have to leave. We have nothing else in common 283 00:19:50.519 --> 00:19:54.480 with the Rand now we like Israel. Now. Of course, 284 00:19:54.640 --> 00:19:56.680 you know, I'm saying that in sort of a deliberately 285 00:19:56.720 --> 00:20:00.240 absurd way, but it's not far off from Indian al sis. 286 00:20:00.319 --> 00:20:04.240 You'll read. So do you think there's anything to that? Right? 287 00:20:05.160 --> 00:20:05.440 Yes? 288 00:20:05.559 --> 00:20:07.599 Is there a building anger towards Hesbola? 289 00:20:09.480 --> 00:20:14.200 Yes, it depends who you talk to, but that is 290 00:20:14.240 --> 00:20:19.400 a one hundred percent the case with many people, not all. Again, 291 00:20:19.480 --> 00:20:24.480 that's all Lebanon is in such a really shitty situation 292 00:20:25.559 --> 00:20:28.319 that the economy is so bad, the government is so 293 00:20:28.400 --> 00:20:32.640 dysfunctional that adding war on top of that, it just 294 00:20:32.920 --> 00:20:36.519 it just wrecks people. It just blackmails people, like I 295 00:20:36.799 --> 00:20:39.440 talk to family members, I talk to friends who still 296 00:20:39.480 --> 00:20:43.079 live there, and it's just like it's incredibly depressing. It 297 00:20:43.160 --> 00:20:48.400 is so incredibly depressing that it drives people to emigrant. 298 00:20:48.640 --> 00:20:51.559 It really really drives people to leave and give up 299 00:20:52.119 --> 00:20:55.680 because the situation is so hopeless and there is no solution. Shit, 300 00:20:56.160 --> 00:20:58.799 even before the war, like, even before this war started, 301 00:20:58.839 --> 00:21:01.880 the situation was hope and there was no solution. No 302 00:21:01.920 --> 00:21:06.079 one believed Lebanon was gonna like turn around and fix itself. 303 00:21:06.880 --> 00:21:08.960 Like in many ways, it's much off. It's much worse 304 00:21:09.000 --> 00:21:13.640 off than Brazil in many many ways. The political problems 305 00:21:13.839 --> 00:21:18.079 are so intractable that like it literally just causes you know, 306 00:21:18.079 --> 00:21:23.160 people to blackpill get into gambling, do reckless things and 307 00:21:23.400 --> 00:21:26.759 just I don't know, like deaths of despair and just 308 00:21:26.759 --> 00:21:29.200 just emigrate. Just emigrate. There's a reason my parents emigrated. 309 00:21:29.720 --> 00:21:32.920 There's a reason millions of Lebanese have emigrated because the 310 00:21:32.960 --> 00:21:36.759 situation there is absolutely it's just an absolute shit show 311 00:21:37.359 --> 00:21:41.119 there is I really, I know that's I know you're 312 00:21:41.119 --> 00:21:44.240 trying to how do I say? I'm going to give 313 00:21:44.240 --> 00:21:46.839 them the benefit of the doubt. But those detractors are 314 00:21:46.880 --> 00:21:54.519 not wrong. The sunny Muslims of Lebanon despise Hesbla and 315 00:21:54.559 --> 00:22:00.640 despise the sites for many legitimate and also some illegitimate reasons. 316 00:22:00.680 --> 00:22:04.039 This is totally justified in their mind. They would rather 317 00:22:04.160 --> 00:22:10.720 side with Israel temporarily temporarily to defeat Hesbula than fight 318 00:22:11.359 --> 00:22:16.599 alongside Shia heretics. They are heretics in their opinion against Israel. 319 00:22:16.680 --> 00:22:20.680 This is like, there are groups in Lebanon trying to 320 00:22:20.839 --> 00:22:25.519 use this war with Israel to weaken Hesbelah because Hesbela 321 00:22:25.680 --> 00:22:30.559 is the top dog in the Lebanese political system. It 322 00:22:30.640 --> 00:22:34.640 is the only group in Lebanon allowed to basically maintain 323 00:22:34.680 --> 00:22:38.920 its own militia. It is basically the only only group 324 00:22:38.960 --> 00:22:42.559 in Lebanon that is like has access to I don't know, 325 00:22:42.720 --> 00:22:47.079 like continental ballistic missiles. I mean not continental ballistic missiles, 326 00:22:47.079 --> 00:22:50.400 but I mean high tech high tech weaponry, like high 327 00:22:50.480 --> 00:22:53.359 tech anti ship missiles. They do have anti ship missiles, 328 00:22:53.720 --> 00:22:57.200 high tech drones, high tech any kind of missile you 329 00:22:57.200 --> 00:22:59.960 want under the sun, like Hesbela has access to this, 330 00:23:00.079 --> 00:23:04.480 but no other faction of you know, the very religiously 331 00:23:04.519 --> 00:23:07.079 diverse Lebanon does. They are the only They're the only 332 00:23:07.119 --> 00:23:10.519 one that has the real monopoly on force and no 333 00:23:10.559 --> 00:23:16.039 one else does. And this causes huge disincentives because the 334 00:23:16.039 --> 00:23:19.599 country is such a shit show. I really hate talking 335 00:23:19.599 --> 00:23:23.640 about this, but there are groups in Lebanon. The Christians 336 00:23:23.640 --> 00:23:26.200 are split. There are some Christians that support has Belah. 337 00:23:26.279 --> 00:23:29.799 There are many Christians that don't support Hasbelah. I don't 338 00:23:29.839 --> 00:23:32.240 go I don't choose a side one way of another. 339 00:23:32.279 --> 00:23:34.440 I am not I am not a big fan of Hesbela. 340 00:23:34.599 --> 00:23:36.599 But if you had to, if you put a gun 341 00:23:36.640 --> 00:23:39.160 to my head and ask me, like would you rather 342 00:23:39.240 --> 00:23:43.160 be occupied by Israel or occupied by the Sahites, like 343 00:23:43.200 --> 00:23:46.119 I choose the Sahites, okay, And it can't stand. That's 344 00:23:46.200 --> 00:23:49.160 just that's just my personal opinion. Many people in Lebanon 345 00:23:49.240 --> 00:23:53.920 have a different opinion. They want to use the Israelis 346 00:23:54.279 --> 00:23:57.839 as a battering ram against their domestic political opponents, which 347 00:23:57.839 --> 00:24:01.079 are hes below. So that that is completely true in 348 00:24:01.119 --> 00:24:04.519 the on that front hunger. 349 00:24:04.599 --> 00:24:08.519 When you and I were speaking earlier, you mentioned that 350 00:24:08.559 --> 00:24:12.880 you've been following this conflict closely for obvious reasons. Perhaps, 351 00:24:13.720 --> 00:24:17.880 So what do you make of this sort of bizarre 352 00:24:17.960 --> 00:24:24.400 situation where we have the Pakistanis ostensibly acting as some 353 00:24:24.480 --> 00:24:28.119 sort of negotiators for the ceasefire that simultaneously is and 354 00:24:28.279 --> 00:24:32.119 isn't happening. I'll admit I've sort of lost the plot 355 00:24:32.160 --> 00:24:35.319 on this point. I don't really know what is happening 356 00:24:35.839 --> 00:24:39.119 because very very early, of course, you have this bizarre 357 00:24:39.119 --> 00:24:41.720 situation where it seems as if there was either a 358 00:24:41.759 --> 00:24:46.519 miscommunication or just simple incompetence on behalf of the Pakistanis 359 00:24:46.519 --> 00:24:49.960 that led to a significant misunderstanding in what the terms 360 00:24:49.960 --> 00:24:55.359 of this ceasefire will really were and weren't. And while 361 00:24:55.359 --> 00:24:57.839 we're talking about things that are both true and not true, 362 00:24:58.480 --> 00:25:02.240 obviously se candarily there is the idea of well, is 363 00:25:02.279 --> 00:25:05.039 the strait of horror moves open or not? Right? It 364 00:25:05.079 --> 00:25:08.960 seems as if currently it's very unclear what is actually happening. 365 00:25:10.680 --> 00:25:13.359 No, that's a that's one hundred percent sure. The the 366 00:25:13.480 --> 00:25:18.519 media environment is so polluted that no one, nobody knows 367 00:25:18.559 --> 00:25:21.119 what the fuck is going on. Which is which is 368 00:25:21.160 --> 00:25:24.160 so hard to discuss this, which is why, and which 369 00:25:24.160 --> 00:25:26.160 is why there's so many competing narratives, and that that's 370 00:25:26.200 --> 00:25:31.559 a deliberate choice. There's obviously tons of misinformation out there, 371 00:25:32.200 --> 00:25:37.160 and you have to take every you know, official, I 372 00:25:37.160 --> 00:25:41.519 guess government statement with a enormous grain of salt. But 373 00:25:42.119 --> 00:25:45.480 you know, I'm not I'm I'm less interested in what's 374 00:25:45.480 --> 00:25:48.519 happening now like is like is like, this is Schrodinger's 375 00:25:49.160 --> 00:25:53.279 straight this is Schrodinger's cease fire, Like nobody fucking knows 376 00:25:53.319 --> 00:25:56.160 what the hell is going on. I'm much more interested 377 00:25:56.279 --> 00:26:02.519 in how this happened because from all the indications I 378 00:26:02.559 --> 00:26:08.519 can tell, was that Jared Kushner and Steve Whitkoff completely 379 00:26:08.519 --> 00:26:13.039 torpedoed the potential for a deal with Iran. I think 380 00:26:13.079 --> 00:26:16.039 there has I think there's plenty of evidence, plenty of 381 00:26:16.039 --> 00:26:20.720 evidence I've seen to suggest this. The Omanis who are mediating, 382 00:26:20.799 --> 00:26:24.519 who are mediating the talks before the Pakistanis, the British 383 00:26:24.680 --> 00:26:27.599 who were also there at the negotiations with the Omanis, 384 00:26:28.079 --> 00:26:32.240 between the Americans and the Iranians, just they all confirm 385 00:26:32.400 --> 00:26:34.519 that there was a deal on the table. We had 386 00:26:34.519 --> 00:26:37.559 a very workable framework and needed a little bit more time, 387 00:26:38.000 --> 00:26:40.799 but both sides basically agreed to like eighty to ninety 388 00:26:40.799 --> 00:26:44.640 percent on all the issues, and then Trump launched the 389 00:26:44.680 --> 00:26:48.559 war about you know a week later, you have you 390 00:26:48.559 --> 00:26:50.160 heard similar things, because that's what I've heard, and I 391 00:26:50.240 --> 00:26:52.200 think that is totally accurate with the facts. 392 00:26:53.920 --> 00:26:59.440 That is accurate to what I have heard. Now, I 393 00:26:59.559 --> 00:27:04.079 believe that there is it is in dispute even among 394 00:27:04.920 --> 00:27:11.400 the anti Iran war faction right as to why, right 395 00:27:11.440 --> 00:27:14.880 effect like why we went to war with Iran? You know, 396 00:27:14.920 --> 00:27:18.319 what was the internal narrative? You have some people as 397 00:27:18.799 --> 00:27:21.920 diverse as random Internet anti semites all the way up 398 00:27:21.960 --> 00:27:25.480 to I don't know, Marco Rubio, and at least Trump 399 00:27:25.519 --> 00:27:29.519 sort of intimating this that effectively, the Israelis strong armed 400 00:27:29.599 --> 00:27:33.440 us into it. You have others more cynically basically saying like, no, 401 00:27:34.240 --> 00:27:38.279