WEBVTT 1 00:00:04.719 --> 00:00:08.279 With Laurent segel And from London and Gerard Reed from Berlin. 2 00:00:08.800 --> 00:00:10.640 This is redefining. 3 00:00:10.199 --> 00:00:13.519 Energy today on really if any energy. This is a 4 00:00:13.560 --> 00:00:16.399 super special show for the end of the summer. Jow, 5 00:00:16.600 --> 00:00:18.199 what are we going to talk about. 6 00:00:18.440 --> 00:00:21.679 We're going to talk about the seven deadly sins of 7 00:00:21.719 --> 00:00:23.199 the energy world. 8 00:00:23.519 --> 00:00:25.480 And in order to do so, we need to bring 9 00:00:25.559 --> 00:00:31.280 our blue flame thinker, our friend colleague from Canada, Michael Barnard. 10 00:00:31.519 --> 00:00:33.600 Welcome, Welcome, I'm so glad to be here. 11 00:00:33.640 --> 00:00:37.759 As always, I know coined the term seventh scene. It's 12 00:00:37.840 --> 00:00:41.479 a Pope Gregory or something in the sixth century. But 13 00:00:41.799 --> 00:00:44.039 we have decided and I don't know who, because we're 14 00:00:44.280 --> 00:00:46.600 kind of a changing during the summer, and that just 15 00:00:46.719 --> 00:00:49.679 popped up, the seventh scenes of the energy transition. 16 00:00:50.159 --> 00:00:52.000 It must have been me, because I'm the creative one, 17 00:00:52.560 --> 00:00:53.960 just that, you know, So it must. 18 00:00:53.759 --> 00:00:56.159 Have been me, that's sure. It was not me. 19 00:00:58.399 --> 00:01:01.880 I certainly remember it being Girardi who was pushing, okay, 20 00:01:02.039 --> 00:01:03.039 happily receiving. 21 00:01:03.280 --> 00:01:05.519 Yeah, okay, great question for it was somebody else that 22 00:01:05.599 --> 00:01:07.159 came up with the idea, but it was very good. 23 00:01:07.519 --> 00:01:09.280 The seven Sins are Michael. 24 00:01:09.760 --> 00:01:12.200 I'd just like to say, assertions that I have personal 25 00:01:12.239 --> 00:01:15.000 and extensive experience with all of them are completely true. 26 00:01:15.680 --> 00:01:22.159 The list is greed, bluttony, sloth, cry lust, wrap and envy. 27 00:01:22.959 --> 00:01:25.959 Okay, I know you were educated in the seminar, but 28 00:01:26.480 --> 00:01:28.959 how does it translate for investment? 29 00:01:29.680 --> 00:01:32.040 For investment, what we have to think about is the 30 00:01:32.159 --> 00:01:35.879 sins are the things which we're really subject to, which 31 00:01:35.920 --> 00:01:38.680 aren't good for us or good for others around us. 32 00:01:39.000 --> 00:01:42.120 And so in the energy world, as we consider the 33 00:01:42.200 --> 00:01:45.640 exemplars of sloth or greed, what we have to say 34 00:01:45.719 --> 00:01:48.680 is if the analogy fits, then it's going to be 35 00:01:48.719 --> 00:01:50.200 hobbling your investments. 36 00:01:50.680 --> 00:01:53.920 Well, said Michael, Well said, we told you so. 37 00:01:54.079 --> 00:01:57.040 What are they? Please? Number one, number two, number three. 38 00:01:57.560 --> 00:02:00.719 As we go through these. For greed, we have carbon capture, 39 00:02:00.799 --> 00:02:05.599 sequestration and direct air capture, avarice and pipelines. For gluttony, 40 00:02:06.000 --> 00:02:09.520 nothing fits gluttony better than hydrogen the calorie bomb energy carrier. 41 00:02:10.360 --> 00:02:14.080 For slough, it's nuclear and small modular reactors. And then 42 00:02:14.080 --> 00:02:18.800 there's pride. This is fusion Kubri's with a torus. It's 43 00:02:18.919 --> 00:02:21.479 very interesting research, but it has nothing to do with 44 00:02:21.520 --> 00:02:27.199 the energy transition or decarbonization. For lust, biofuels everywhere at 45 00:02:27.199 --> 00:02:29.479 the drop in sirensaw. It's a nice idea that we 46 00:02:29.479 --> 00:02:31.960 don't have to replace the engines or the vehicles. But 47 00:02:32.039 --> 00:02:35.560 while we need biofuels for the really hard to decarbonize segments, 48 00:02:35.919 --> 00:02:39.080 we're just going to electrify everything else. Then there's wrap. 49 00:02:39.400 --> 00:02:42.879 This one leans into the United States right now, canceling 50 00:02:43.599 --> 00:02:48.479 offshore wind its reprise of rage against the turbines, and 51 00:02:48.520 --> 00:02:53.360 then finally envy the greenhole costplay of the past five 52 00:02:53.439 --> 00:02:57.479 years of ESG reporting. As somebody said, I've got a 53 00:02:57.520 --> 00:03:00.520 guy in the sub basement who fills in those forms 54 00:03:00.560 --> 00:03:02.639 for us. That's the list. 55 00:03:03.199 --> 00:03:06.120 Well, it's a why don't we start with greed, which 56 00:03:06.240 --> 00:03:09.479 you know, I think i'd better describe at subsidy mining 57 00:03:09.520 --> 00:03:12.240 in a lab coat. You might call it cobbon capture 58 00:03:12.240 --> 00:03:15.520 and direct our air capture, but for me it's subsidy mining. 59 00:03:16.199 --> 00:03:20.719 No, No, it's regulatory capture, not carbon because they capture 60 00:03:20.800 --> 00:03:22.840 most sipsids than CO two. 61 00:03:23.360 --> 00:03:27.159 I have to say the entire climb work scandal where 62 00:03:27.360 --> 00:03:30.960 they can't actually get it to work and it's such 63 00:03:30.960 --> 00:03:35.080 a tiny amount of expected targets. What they found is 64 00:03:35.520 --> 00:03:38.560 they're actually going to be capturing and sequestering less CO 65 00:03:38.800 --> 00:03:42.240 two than it's costing to capture and sequester the CEO 66 00:03:42.360 --> 00:03:45.560 two in terms of emissions. It's just a dead act. 67 00:03:46.039 --> 00:03:49.560 While four hundred and twenty parts per million is really 68 00:03:49.560 --> 00:03:54.520 problematic from a global warming perspective, it's really also engineering problematic. 69 00:03:54.840 --> 00:03:57.680 It's trying to strain a drop of urine out of 70 00:03:57.680 --> 00:04:00.800 an Olympic sized swimming pool. It just have to accept 71 00:04:00.879 --> 00:04:02.000 that that's going to be hard. 72 00:04:02.840 --> 00:04:04.240 Mike, I want to add on to this, and I'd 73 00:04:04.319 --> 00:04:05.759 like to hear you Todd on it. I mean, here 74 00:04:05.759 --> 00:04:09.599 we are during this podcast, and Germany is bringing in 75 00:04:09.840 --> 00:04:11.840 carbon capture regulations. 76 00:04:12.319 --> 00:04:15.479 We will need some carbon capture. It will pencil out 77 00:04:15.479 --> 00:04:20.160 in some places, like where there is a industrial source 78 00:04:20.319 --> 00:04:25.319 of purish carbon of CO two at reasonable pressures that 79 00:04:25.399 --> 00:04:28.120 can just be put into a sequestration site which is 80 00:04:28.120 --> 00:04:31.879 effectively underneath that site. That's probably going to be a 81 00:04:31.920 --> 00:04:35.000 cheap way to do it. If we think of electrified cement, 82 00:04:35.279 --> 00:04:39.839 for example, or using the sublime process, the electrochemical process, 83 00:04:40.120 --> 00:04:43.800 which produces a fairly pure stream of CO two, and 84 00:04:43.839 --> 00:04:46.240 it's beside the ocean, and there's a pipeline leading to 85 00:04:46.279 --> 00:04:50.600 offshore seaquestration that actually pencils out in terms of being 86 00:04:50.800 --> 00:04:54.160 fairly low cost, low carbon cement. And unless you have 87 00:04:54.199 --> 00:04:58.399 a sequestration site directly under the facility or your seashore 88 00:04:58.600 --> 00:05:00.360 and you can put it in a pipeline off, sure, 89 00:05:00.759 --> 00:05:02.560 it just gets more and more expensive and less and 90 00:05:02.639 --> 00:05:03.399 less likely. 91 00:05:03.720 --> 00:05:05.720 And at the end of the day, it just costs, 92 00:05:06.040 --> 00:05:09.639 except when you do the enhance soil recovery, which has 93 00:05:09.639 --> 00:05:13.680 been going pretty good. Oxy is the big specialist of that. 94 00:05:14.319 --> 00:05:17.360 But otherwise it's just basically you as the taxpayer, to 95 00:05:17.399 --> 00:05:20.480 capture the carbon and that's pretty much it. Well it's not. 96 00:05:20.519 --> 00:05:22.040 I love that, but I don't know. It needs to 97 00:05:22.040 --> 00:05:23.720 bring us to the next one, which has glut me. 98 00:05:24.519 --> 00:05:26.879 I just love it. Three killer? 99 00:05:26.959 --> 00:05:27.920 What ours to make? 100 00:05:28.040 --> 00:05:28.519 One killer? 101 00:05:28.560 --> 00:05:28.920 What hour? 102 00:05:28.959 --> 00:05:31.759 And I know you two guys love this topic. 103 00:05:32.279 --> 00:05:37.319 Yeah, it's hydrogen. There's a lot of technical conversation around hydrogen. 104 00:05:37.560 --> 00:05:41.360 And I'm not a technical guy. I'm a trader. So 105 00:05:41.399 --> 00:05:44.839 what I do know and I have checked on CHGPT 106 00:05:45.000 --> 00:05:48.560 and so on, is basically one dollar per kilo hydrogen 107 00:05:48.720 --> 00:05:52.360 equal fifty dollars per barrel of oil in terms of 108 00:05:52.439 --> 00:05:55.040 energy content. You can go and say no, no, it's 109 00:05:55.079 --> 00:05:57.759 not fifty, it's forty eight point nine, but I make 110 00:05:57.800 --> 00:06:01.399 it fifty because that's easier. So you've got those guys 111 00:06:01.399 --> 00:06:04.319 they say, oh, that's great, We've got hydrogen at eight 112 00:06:04.319 --> 00:06:07.399 dollar pokiro. I say, okay, fine, so eight del parkidro. 113 00:06:07.480 --> 00:06:09.199 You're trying to set a bil of oil at four 114 00:06:09.279 --> 00:06:12.839 hundred upper barrel. The market price is sixty. Just ten 115 00:06:12.920 --> 00:06:15.319 mew is going to pay the three forty of difference, 116 00:06:15.439 --> 00:06:18.839 and they're like, ugh, it's just too expensive. Period. 117 00:06:18.879 --> 00:06:22.480 It is once again regulatory capture. The nice thing about 118 00:06:22.519 --> 00:06:26.439 hydrogen is while a lot of people invested in the 119 00:06:26.519 --> 00:06:31.560 narrative about hydrogen, it was based upon fallacious assumptions that 120 00:06:31.759 --> 00:06:35.240 green hydrogen would be cheap. If hydrogen could be delivered 121 00:06:35.240 --> 00:06:38.480 at a buck a kilogram, that would work out. But 122 00:06:38.600 --> 00:06:42.040 what happened was in the twenty tens people said how 123 00:06:42.120 --> 00:06:46.040 cheap does hydrogen have to be in order to be used? 124 00:06:46.720 --> 00:06:49.120 And then they invented a bunch of ways to make 125 00:06:49.160 --> 00:06:52.160 it beem like it could get there. They were invested 126 00:06:52.199 --> 00:06:55.240 in the one dollar per kilogram of hydrogen and instead 127 00:06:55.240 --> 00:06:57.639 of saying, well, we can't get there, it's never going 128 00:06:57.680 --> 00:06:59.560 to get there, which I luckily did the math and 129 00:06:59.560 --> 00:07:02.319 figured out then they wouldn't have actually spent the last 130 00:07:02.360 --> 00:07:05.439 five or ten years trying to make hydrogen into something 131 00:07:05.480 --> 00:07:07.240 and it's not an energy carrier. 132 00:07:07.519 --> 00:07:10.839 Well said Weldside Michael and Laurand I've got a bit 133 00:07:10.879 --> 00:07:12.959 of numbers which are funny. 134 00:07:13.319 --> 00:07:16.160 You know. In Australia they had booked two years ago 135 00:07:16.279 --> 00:07:20.680 five gigawat for electoralizers, out of which they will get zero, 136 00:07:21.319 --> 00:07:25.360 and now those five gigawatts in moving to AI. And 137 00:07:25.759 --> 00:07:32.480 that said, they add project in Australia, Gladstone, fortesqu In Germany, 138 00:07:33.000 --> 00:07:37.879 arcel Or Metal canceled, in On cancel. In the US, 139 00:07:38.079 --> 00:07:42.920 bp X all cancel their Indorgent project, air Products canceled 140 00:07:43.079 --> 00:07:47.319 and the CEO to be fired, Tison Hope, Newserra, all 141 00:07:47.399 --> 00:07:51.399 projects abandoned, repsol. It goes on and on and on 142 00:07:51.480 --> 00:07:54.600 and on. Whatever the money throw at it, people just 143 00:07:54.639 --> 00:07:57.439 won't do it. So for me, you know, it's dead. 144 00:07:58.240 --> 00:08:00.360 And we can see that with the major industrial players 145 00:08:00.360 --> 00:08:03.680 that we're supposed to be the demand areas. Astilantis walked 146 00:08:03.680 --> 00:08:07.800 away from its hydrogen sprinter vans. It's now saying battery 147 00:08:07.839 --> 00:08:11.639 electric for the entire range. Airbus walked away from its 148 00:08:11.720 --> 00:08:15.680 hydrogen aviation efforts. What we're seeing is that everybody who's 149 00:08:15.720 --> 00:08:18.839 been attempting to make hydrogen work as an energy carrier 150 00:08:18.879 --> 00:08:22.240 on the demand side is discovering it doesn't. There are 151 00:08:22.279 --> 00:08:25.040 probably as many hydrogen bus fleets that are not being 152 00:08:25.199 --> 00:08:29.519 used as being in case. Another case point in Lower 153 00:08:29.560 --> 00:08:35.480 Saxon Ees passenger train organization famously ignored the neighboring province's 154 00:08:35.480 --> 00:08:38.360 assessment that hydrogen trains would be three times as much 155 00:08:38.360 --> 00:08:43.600 as battery plus overhead hybrid systems and bought fourteen hydrogen 156 00:08:43.639 --> 00:08:46.639 trains through Alstom. Well, only four of them are in 157 00:08:46.679 --> 00:08:51.600 operation now Alstam can't get new fuel cells from Cummings 158 00:08:52.039 --> 00:08:54.440 who took over the hydrogen fuel cell manufacture. 159 00:08:55.440 --> 00:08:56.200 Great guys. 160 00:08:56.360 --> 00:09:00.559 So then I want to talk about slothes and actually 161 00:09:00.879 --> 00:09:04.039 it's one of my favorite topics because it's always in 162 00:09:04.120 --> 00:09:08.639 time and always in budget, and that of course is nuclear. 163 00:09:09.159 --> 00:09:11.320 So where do we start that, guys? I want to 164 00:09:11.360 --> 00:09:15.039 start with twenty twenty nine, the first SMR is meant 165 00:09:15.039 --> 00:09:17.600 to be online. What do you think will it be 166 00:09:17.679 --> 00:09:20.120 on in twenty twenty nine or be twenty thirty nine 167 00:09:20.200 --> 00:09:22.440 or forty nine? Will it be on budget or not. 168 00:09:23.320 --> 00:09:26.120 Well, pick the project you're referring to, So which one 169 00:09:26.159 --> 00:09:29.039 the one in an Ontario, Ontario? Yeah, yeah, the one 170 00:09:29.080 --> 00:09:33.320 in Ontario. Well, SMRs are interesting. The premise of small 171 00:09:33.320 --> 00:09:36.919 modular reactors is that the problem with nuclear was big reactors, 172 00:09:37.320 --> 00:09:39.799 and that's why they went over budget and stuff. And instead, 173 00:09:39.840 --> 00:09:42.279 what we're going to do is build small modular reactors 174 00:09:42.600 --> 00:09:45.440 as much as factories as possible and kind of churn 175 00:09:45.440 --> 00:09:49.240 them out like crackerback jack boxes. But it's been very 176 00:09:49.240 --> 00:09:53.600 funny to watch. Small modular reactors were in many cases 177 00:09:53.600 --> 00:09:57.200 positive to be twenty to seventy megawatts in capacity, and 178 00:09:57.320 --> 00:09:59.440 all of those have fallen by the wayside. Now a 179 00:09:59.519 --> 00:10:03.279 small mode modular reactor is three hundred megawatts, and three 180 00:10:03.360 --> 00:10:06.919 hundred megawats is a hard to call particularly small. It's 181 00:10:06.919 --> 00:10:10.399 a third the size of the typical gigawatts scale one B. 182 00:10:11.039 --> 00:10:14.919 At three hundred megawatts, it's a multi billion dollar construction 183 00:10:15.080 --> 00:10:20.039 project regardless, it's not something you manufacture and deliver. And three, 184 00:10:20.720 --> 00:10:23.480 A big part of the small modular reactors theory was 185 00:10:23.559 --> 00:10:27.399 Right's law. Every time you double production of something in 186 00:10:27.399 --> 00:10:30.919 a manufer a manufactured object. For more complex objects like 187 00:10:30.960 --> 00:10:33.759 fuel cells, it might be ten percent. For silver panels 188 00:10:33.759 --> 00:10:36.039 and batteries it's about twenty percent. Well, when you get 189 00:10:36.080 --> 00:10:39.559 to the three hundred megawatt nuclear reactor, you're just not 190 00:10:39.600 --> 00:10:42.159 going to be doing that many of them. A. It's 191 00:10:42.200 --> 00:10:44.840 more of a custom engineering project. B. So you're not 192 00:10:44.879 --> 00:10:48.120 getting the economies of the experience curve. And you're just 193 00:10:48.159 --> 00:10:49.559 not going to do that many. So you're just not 194 00:10:49.600 --> 00:10:53.759 getting the doublings very much. So it loses out time 195 00:10:53.799 --> 00:10:54.360 and time again. 196 00:10:55.080 --> 00:10:57.840 Still announce of the question though, twenty twenty nine, do 197 00:10:58.000 --> 00:11:00.360 they do it? It's a Canadian project? Are you going 198 00:11:00.440 --> 00:11:02.080 to back your fellow countryman? 199 00:11:02.200 --> 00:11:03.000 It's true. 200 00:11:03.519 --> 00:11:06.440 I have been to that site, Bruce Nuclear, and I 201 00:11:06.440 --> 00:11:09.240 will say that it is a wonderful jobs program for 202 00:11:09.279 --> 00:11:12.279 the twelve thousand person that the nuclear site is in. 203 00:11:12.720 --> 00:11:16.759 It is not going to be benefiting Ontario's electrical generation. 204 00:11:17.600 --> 00:11:20.200 If it's in up and running by twenty thirty five, 205 00:11:20.360 --> 00:11:21.279 I'll be surprised. 206 00:11:21.360 --> 00:11:22.480 Oh they haven't. 207 00:11:22.519 --> 00:11:23.720 I love it. I love it. 208 00:11:23.799 --> 00:11:26.320 Laurn Yeah, give me a number, Yeah, give me a year. 209 00:11:26.399 --> 00:11:30.639 They don't have construction yet, Getachi. They will put it out. 210 00:11:31.039 --> 00:11:34.000 I really wonder about the cost because the aiding cost 211 00:11:34.080 --> 00:11:36.480 of new nuclear is already two hundred up and make 212 00:11:36.519 --> 00:11:40.240 it what hour, and those guys might be even more 213 00:11:40.240 --> 00:11:42.720 expensive three hundred four hundred. If somebody is willing to 214 00:11:42.720 --> 00:11:46.440 pay five times market price, that's good. Now, what I'm 215 00:11:46.480 --> 00:11:51.080 fascinated is not that g Tachi or horse Hoys. And 216 00:11:51.120 --> 00:11:54.600 by the way, these are mostly submarine design which have 217 00:11:54.679 --> 00:12:01.240 been kind of reshuffled. It's all those startups news Keros, 218 00:12:01.440 --> 00:12:08.320 x Nergy, Terrestrial Lead called Oaklo Ultra safe Nuclear. Okay, 219 00:12:08.480 --> 00:12:13.799 so I guess the others are not allow multics no no, no, no, no, no on. 220 00:12:13.879 --> 00:12:17.440 And I see Breakthrough, Open Ai, Amazon throwing a lot 221 00:12:17.480 --> 00:12:20.120 of money at those guys. That's fascinating. 222 00:12:20.639 --> 00:12:23.759 The US venture capital industry has become a great way 223 00:12:23.799 --> 00:12:26.399 for people to get rich without having to deliver anything. 224 00:12:26.840 --> 00:12:29.480 If you can get funding, the Wall Street guys make money. 225 00:12:30.000 --> 00:12:33.639 The venture capitalists maybe they make money. It doesn't seem 226 00:12:33.639 --> 00:12:36.120 to matter that much. But if you can get a 227 00:12:36.159 --> 00:12:39.480 big VC like Breakthrough to put five hundred million dollars 228 00:12:39.519 --> 00:12:42.000 into your fund, you can coast three years on that 229 00:12:42.399 --> 00:12:43.480 without delivering anything. 230 00:12:44.399 --> 00:12:47.759 That leads us to pride. And the way I would 231 00:12:47.759 --> 00:12:51.240 describe pride is we will bottle the Sun. We will 232 00:12:51.279 --> 00:12:54.080 go back to the source of all energy. 233 00:12:55.000 --> 00:12:56.559 What's that fusion. 234 00:12:57.440 --> 00:13:00.799 I'm gonna say I agree with that premise. We are 235 00:13:01.159 --> 00:13:03.559 going to bottle the song. We're going to work off 236 00:13:03.600 --> 00:13:07.000 fusion energy. But we're going to position the fusion energy 237 00:13:07.000 --> 00:13:11.000 at a safe distance from anything about ninety three million miles, 238 00:13:11.240 --> 00:13:14.080 and we're gonna make sure it's gravitational pull keeps us 239 00:13:14.159 --> 00:13:17.279 at a safe distance in kind of the Goldilock zone 240 00:13:17.320 --> 00:13:20.759 for our planet, so that enough energy hits to warm 241 00:13:20.919 --> 00:13:24.840 us out of glaciation, but not bake us like mercury. 242 00:13:25.559 --> 00:13:29.159 We're going to capture that fusion energy. I think that's 243 00:13:29.200 --> 00:13:30.960 what we'll do. But yes, we are. We are going 244 00:13:31.000 --> 00:13:32.159 to depend on fusion energy. 245 00:13:32.759 --> 00:13:34.639 No, but again, I mean here, if I look at 246 00:13:34.639 --> 00:13:39.320 those startups Elion Energy five hundred million dollar rays backed 247 00:13:39.320 --> 00:13:47.159 by some altan common Well Fusion two billion, General Fusion Vancouver, 248 00:13:47.360 --> 00:13:51.600 twenty million, Tokamac Energy, ox Watsch one hundred and seventy 249 00:13:51.639 --> 00:13:57.759 two million, zap Energy three hundred and thirty million, Renaissance Fusion, 250 00:13:58.799 --> 00:14:03.720 microfusion THAE Technology one point two. I mean, this is 251 00:14:04.440 --> 00:14:09.879 absolutely phenomenal and disgrace is the EE Project in front, 252 00:14:10.559 --> 00:14:14.440 which is what is it like thirty years late, twenty 253 00:14:14.480 --> 00:14:15.440 times of a budget. 254 00:14:17.159 --> 00:14:19.639 I think it's up to eighty billion, and I looked 255 00:14:19.639 --> 00:14:22.919 into it a couple of years ago. Because here's its 256 00:14:22.960 --> 00:14:26.399 target for success for twenty forty. The target for success 257 00:14:26.440 --> 00:14:31.519 is to maintain fusion for five minutes with thermal net 258 00:14:31.639 --> 00:14:34.440 energy delivery. But the thermal net energy delivery, if you 259 00:14:34.480 --> 00:14:38.600 actually bolted a generation device onto that, it would actually 260 00:14:38.639 --> 00:14:41.200 get down to the amount of energy required to run 261 00:14:41.200 --> 00:14:43.919 the process is equivalent to the amount of electricity you 262 00:14:43.960 --> 00:14:46.279 get back out of it. So that's their target for 263 00:14:46.320 --> 00:14:51.360 sustained fusion five minutes with no electricity net delivered. All 264 00:14:51.399 --> 00:14:54.279 these breakthroughs you hear about fusion and look into them, 265 00:14:54.519 --> 00:14:57.519 nobody's actually doing fusion yet. We've just gotten to the 266 00:14:57.559 --> 00:15:02.200 point where really hard, weird engineer problems are being exposed. 267 00:15:03.480 --> 00:15:06.559 We're so far from doing that. I also like to 268 00:15:06.600 --> 00:15:09.840 say there is a place for fusion energy we will 269 00:15:09.919 --> 00:15:13.759 require in spaceships past the orbit of Jupiter sometime in 270 00:15:13.759 --> 00:15:17.399 the next two hundred years. I'm glad that research departments 271 00:15:17.440 --> 00:15:20.200 are investigating it and that money is being spent on research, 272 00:15:20.399 --> 00:15:24.240 but it has nothing, nothing to do with the energy transition. 273 00:15:25.240 --> 00:15:28.399 Great, well, let's not brings us on to last And 274 00:15:28.639 --> 00:15:31.000 what we really want to talk about here is what 275 00:15:31.039 --> 00:15:37.200 we describe is that drop in fantasies for every engine biofuels. 276 00:15:37.519 --> 00:15:40.799 So where do we start. Guys, that all biofuels started 277 00:15:40.799 --> 00:15:44.240 twenty five years ago. First you have two big biofuels. 278 00:15:44.240 --> 00:15:46.879 You've got a sugar based channel which is in Brazil 279 00:15:46.960 --> 00:15:50.240 and relatively cheap. But that you get corn based channel, 280 00:15:50.279 --> 00:15:53.360 which is an absolute disaster. Half of the acreage for 281 00:15:53.519 --> 00:15:56.759 corn in the US going to biofuels. And of course 282 00:15:57.039 --> 00:16:00.759 it was designed at a moment where the US was 283 00:16:00.799 --> 00:16:04.080 importing a lot of oil and they were peak oil 284 00:16:04.159 --> 00:16:06.320 and they thought oil would go to three hundred. And 285 00:16:06.360 --> 00:16:08.279 of course big a grow was there and so we'll 286 00:16:08.320 --> 00:16:11.159 get a solution with com based eight and ol. And 287 00:16:11.279 --> 00:16:15.080 that created a constituency. Plus, as you know, the first 288 00:16:15.159 --> 00:16:18.000 round of the US election is in Iowa. So I 289 00:16:18.279 --> 00:16:22.639 was big on the biofuels and that systems fossilized itself. 290 00:16:22.639 --> 00:16:25.120 Now in Europe, I think at some points they say okay, 291 00:16:25.120 --> 00:16:29.360 stop the blending. And still today it's designed for a 292 00:16:29.399 --> 00:16:31.960 baryl of oil at one hundred and fifty upper barrel 293 00:16:32.600 --> 00:16:35.080 and because as much cheaper, but basically you have to 294 00:16:35.120 --> 00:16:38.120 force it into the system through blending mandates. 295 00:16:38.120 --> 00:16:41.399 Michael I am actually a strong advocate of biofuels for 296 00:16:41.559 --> 00:16:44.360 SATH and maritime fuels without getting into that subject deeply, 297 00:16:45.159 --> 00:16:47.200 but I just have to say that some of the 298 00:16:47.240 --> 00:16:50.519 first generation biofuel stuff has led to a lot of 299 00:16:50.720 --> 00:16:54.240 negative press, which doesn't hold up when we start looking 300 00:16:54.240 --> 00:16:58.000 at second generation biofuels. In third generation biofuels, we're now 301 00:16:58.080 --> 00:17:00.559 the plant where we can do or crap. We can 302 00:17:00.720 --> 00:17:05.119 take the corn husks and the corn stalks and feed 303 00:17:05.119 --> 00:17:09.079 them into the biofuel processing and get ethanol out of 304 00:17:09.079 --> 00:17:11.839 there or methanol, and we can feed the corn into 305 00:17:11.920 --> 00:17:15.599 the food system. It turns an agricultural waste into a 306 00:17:15.680 --> 00:17:19.039 valuable product. Similarly, we can take the corn stalks and 307 00:17:19.119 --> 00:17:23.920 put them through biodigestors and create biomethane for manufacturing of 308 00:17:24.000 --> 00:17:27.039 methanol or long duration energy storage and a couple of 309 00:17:27.079 --> 00:17:31.920 other things. We've got uses there. I think that demonization 310 00:17:32.000 --> 00:17:36.119 of biofuels as an agricultural food displacer don't stand up 311 00:17:36.160 --> 00:17:39.359 to scrutiny. I think Europe is far too precious on 312 00:17:39.400 --> 00:17:43.519 the subject. It's just calories, whether they're consumed by animals, 313 00:17:43.599 --> 00:17:47.839 humans or motors, and we need calories of some sort, 314 00:17:47.880 --> 00:17:49.920 and we need liquid fuels with some sort of future. 315 00:17:50.640 --> 00:17:53.079 But imagining that we're going to run our trains on 316 00:17:53.160 --> 00:17:57.880 them or trucks or cars, well that's nonsense. All ground 317 00:17:57.880 --> 00:18:00.400 transportate and electrified direct here with batteries. 318 00:18:01.279 --> 00:18:03.079 So, Michael, I certainly agree with you, and I'm not 319 00:18:03.119 --> 00:18:05.279 going to add anything at that, but I will what 320 00:18:05.400 --> 00:18:08.279 I do really want to talk about is rats, and 321 00:18:08.319 --> 00:18:11.640 in particular, I really want to talk about the rat 322 00:18:11.720 --> 00:18:14.240 of mister Trump. So what's he got to do with 323 00:18:14.279 --> 00:18:18.160 our space? It's what we call the culture war at sea? 324 00:18:18.839 --> 00:18:22.119 Oh sure, wind, And we just had a series of 325 00:18:22.200 --> 00:18:27.480 ban news for those Osteda who really were because of 326 00:18:27.480 --> 00:18:30.279 yourpen developer in the US. They took five out of 327 00:18:30.319 --> 00:18:33.720 the thirty gigawad of project and that cancelation in New 328 00:18:33.799 --> 00:18:37.680 Jersey which caused them a lot, and now they are 329 00:18:37.759 --> 00:18:41.720 a revolution project which is eighty percent completed, has been 330 00:18:41.759 --> 00:18:45.279 stopped and they're trying to raise money. But the delusion 331 00:18:45.319 --> 00:18:47.920 is going to be phenomenon. So I'm just going to 332 00:18:47.960 --> 00:18:52.799 say one thing equinor instead very good, Lauren, could happen? 333 00:18:52.920 --> 00:18:53.480 Could happen? 334 00:18:53.960 --> 00:18:55.599 I'm going to lean into something else. I'm going to 335 00:18:55.680 --> 00:18:59.480 blame golfers. Basically, a lot of the rage against wind 336 00:18:59.480 --> 00:19:03.279 turbines comes down to golfers being pissed off at missing 337 00:19:03.279 --> 00:19:06.480 a potts or something goes on with golfers anyway. A 338 00:19:06.519 --> 00:19:10.119 lot of Trump's anger about wind turbines are that he 339 00:19:10.319 --> 00:19:14.960 was building another golf course in Scotland and at the 340 00:19:15.000 --> 00:19:18.200 same time, a long way offshore there was supposed to 341 00:19:18.240 --> 00:19:21.759 be a wind farm going in and some golfers would 342 00:19:21.799 --> 00:19:25.480 be exposed on the tee to somewhere in the horizon 343 00:19:25.839 --> 00:19:29.359 a wind turbine blade or two. And this turned into 344 00:19:29.680 --> 00:19:33.720 a fourteen years of Trump thinking wind turbines of the 345 00:19:33.759 --> 00:19:38.160 devil's pitchforks and fighting against them constantly. Trump doesn't care 346 00:19:38.319 --> 00:19:39.880 what he says is true or not. He cares if 347 00:19:39.920 --> 00:19:43.000 it'll get hit a wedge that he's trying to communicate 348 00:19:43.039 --> 00:19:45.759 to for votes or for gain at the moment when 349 00:19:45.799 --> 00:19:49.839 he says something. So when he's attacking wind energy, he's 350 00:19:50.119 --> 00:19:53.839 feeding into the anti wind ragtag band of Zelitz in 351 00:19:53.880 --> 00:19:56.680 the United States and telling them what they want to hear. 352 00:19:57.079 --> 00:19:59.319 And he's also telling the people who were worded in 353 00:19:59.319 --> 00:20:03.039 the fossil fuel industry about displacement by renewables what they'd 354 00:20:03.119 --> 00:20:06.680 like to hear, except that the fossil fuel industry doesn't 355 00:20:06.720 --> 00:20:09.559 want wind and solar to go away either. Many cases, 356 00:20:09.599 --> 00:20:12.319 they're invested in them and they need electricity for operations 357 00:20:12.359 --> 00:20:16.039 of their facilities, and they want cheap electricity and wind 358 00:20:16.039 --> 00:20:19.680 and solar to provide that. So Trump is irrational on 359 00:20:19.720 --> 00:20:22.039 the subject, but he's feeding into the irrational leading in 360 00:20:22.079 --> 00:20:23.079 the United States. 361 00:20:23.599 --> 00:20:25.920 There's another view which I'd maybe like to talk about 362 00:20:26.039 --> 00:20:29.039 on offshore wind, which is just the economics of it. 363 00:20:29.240 --> 00:20:30.920 If I look at the United States, I go, oh, 364 00:20:31.400 --> 00:20:32.400 why do you even need it? 365 00:20:32.880 --> 00:20:33.160 To see? 366 00:20:33.200 --> 00:20:35.640 The United States? North America gets so much low cost 367 00:20:36.079 --> 00:20:40.480 electricity as it is, whether it's some gas, wind or solar, Yeah, 368 00:20:40.559 --> 00:20:43.119 why do it? So that's my set of thinking on that. 369 00:20:43.559 --> 00:20:45.400 And by the way, sorry, if I was Trump as well, 370 00:20:45.480 --> 00:20:50.240 it's the easiest fight to pick is offshore wind because 371 00:20:50.359 --> 00:20:53.440 this and all the players are farm so it's a 372 00:20:53.480 --> 00:20:55.160 win wind from in every way. Right. 373 00:20:55.880 --> 00:20:58.559 It's not true though, so geev Veranova has the wind 374 00:20:58.640 --> 00:21:02.440 farm and operation at offshore. Second, early Gerard you're forgetting 375 00:21:02.799 --> 00:21:05.640 that the United States is finding impossible to build transmission. 376 00:21:06.000 --> 00:21:08.799 They've got all that lovely wind in the prairies, but 377 00:21:08.880 --> 00:21:12.039 they can't get it to the coastlines. It's much easier 378 00:21:12.119 --> 00:21:16.000 to put a submarine of HVDC cable from thirty kilometers 379 00:21:16.039 --> 00:21:19.279 off shore into New York than it is to get 380 00:21:19.319 --> 00:21:21.039 one from Iowa to New York. 381 00:21:21.559 --> 00:21:24.319 And that's a fair point. So you could also just say, well, 382 00:21:24.400 --> 00:21:27.480 let's just put an undersea cables right along the east 383 00:21:27.519 --> 00:21:30.559 coast and move electricity up right. But the US, you 384 00:21:30.640 --> 00:21:32.759 know as well as I do, it's just very difficult 385 00:21:32.799 --> 00:21:37.200 to get anything done because it's all state level policies 386 00:21:37.279 --> 00:21:40.319 and you've got state interests, you know, not aligned with 387 00:21:40.359 --> 00:21:43.480 the state beside, and it's just really complex. 388 00:21:44.079 --> 00:21:46.480 After talking to Jigar Shah a couple of years ago 389 00:21:46.519 --> 00:21:48.720 on a new into his role with the Department of 390 00:21:48.759 --> 00:21:52.039 Loan's Office for the US Department of Energy, my takeaway 391 00:21:52.079 --> 00:21:54.720 there was the United States has devolved the ability to 392 00:21:54.759 --> 00:21:56.559 say no down to the county level and off an 393 00:21:56.559 --> 00:21:59.599 the individual. Yeah, and transmission is a victim of that. 394 00:22:00.200 --> 00:22:04.519 If I compare the Norse, where you have shallow waters, 395 00:22:04.559 --> 00:22:07.640 you have an exiting oil supply chain. And this is 396 00:22:07.680 --> 00:22:11.759 an energy poor region, but it's not hesitated around the NORSEEA. 397 00:22:12.359 --> 00:22:15.279 And as Jarr says, they've got so much options in 398 00:22:15.319 --> 00:22:20.240 the US that whatever push was extremely political and the 399 00:22:20.279 --> 00:22:24.079 moment the politics change. And I think that the Europen 400 00:22:24.119 --> 00:22:27.720 developers who went to the Nazi did not fathom the 401 00:22:27.920 --> 00:22:32.920