1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:02,680 Speaker 1: Fading the Public has cashed each of the first three 2 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:04,480 weeks this season. We're now eleven to five. In this 3 00:00:04,559 --> 00:00:06,879 video faiting the most public sides each week, I'm gonna 4 00:00:06,879 --> 00:00:10,119 give you the foremost public plays in a bonus selection 5 00:00:10,720 --> 00:00:13,759 for this week, four Sunday, September the twenty eighth. Fadom 6 00:00:13,800 --> 00:00:15,279 or play them, We're gonna talk about the most public 7 00:00:15,320 --> 00:00:17,839 sides deep dive in analysis coming up free right here, 8 00:00:18,199 --> 00:00:21,280 right now is is Steve Merrill wager Talk dot com. 9 00:00:21,359 --> 00:00:23,640 Right back here on wager Talk TV. And as I mentioned, 10 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:25,640 fad in the Public has cashed each of the first 11 00:00:25,640 --> 00:00:28,519 three weeks, now eleven to five and one overall. Fading 12 00:00:28,559 --> 00:00:31,120 the Public Sides and additional leans. I've got four public 13 00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:33,920 plays for you this Sunday and Monday, and also an 14 00:00:33,920 --> 00:00:36,960 additional lean. Let's start with the daytime games and what 15 00:00:37,039 --> 00:00:38,679 is the most public play this week. You know, a 16 00:00:38,679 --> 00:00:40,320 lot of times I'll say they're all kind of equal. 17 00:00:40,439 --> 00:00:42,159 That's been the case the last couple of weeks, but 18 00:00:42,719 --> 00:00:45,000 one game jumped out more public than all the others. 19 00:00:45,039 --> 00:00:48,039 This Sunday at one o'clock Eastern, that's the LA Chargers 20 00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:51,719 traveling cross country to take on the New York Giants, 21 00:00:52,079 --> 00:00:54,119 and not a surprise here. The Chargers are off to 22 00:00:54,240 --> 00:00:56,880 nice three and ozh start. G men, the Giants off 23 00:00:56,920 --> 00:00:58,880 to an zero to three start, So two teams have 24 00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:02,600 been heading the exact opposite directions. Currently this line sitting 25 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:04,599 around six and some spot six and a half in 26 00:01:04,680 --> 00:01:06,920 others as we head into the weekend. Don't think we're 27 00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:08,640 going to get to that key number of seven, but 28 00:01:08,680 --> 00:01:11,159 I would wait. With the Giants, I think we'll get 29 00:01:11,159 --> 00:01:12,879 at least six and a half if you can't already 30 00:01:12,879 --> 00:01:15,920 find it now by kickoff on Sunday, as the Chargers 31 00:01:15,959 --> 00:01:17,760 are the most public play this week. 32 00:01:18,079 --> 00:01:19,719 Speaker 2: In Week four, off to. 33 00:01:19,680 --> 00:01:21,719 Speaker 1: A perfect three to oh straight up an ATS start, 34 00:01:21,760 --> 00:01:25,599 but all three have been divisional wins Kansas City and Brazil, 35 00:01:25,799 --> 00:01:28,239 Monday night road game in Las Vegas, and then the 36 00:01:28,319 --> 00:01:31,879 true home opener last week against Denver, a narrow twenty 37 00:01:31,879 --> 00:01:35,000 three to twenty win. And now they're traveling cross country 38 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:38,400 early kickoff which is a ten am Eastern ten am 39 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:41,640 Pacific start of their body clocks, and playing a non 40 00:01:41,640 --> 00:01:44,599 conference road game. Hey, we saw this situation last week 41 00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:46,799 with the Green Bay Packers. I told you in this 42 00:01:46,879 --> 00:01:49,799 video do not use the Packers in your survivor pools. 43 00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:52,920 Do not use them in teasers. We had a betspent 44 00:01:53,000 --> 00:01:55,120 on the Browns last week. It was a fate of 45 00:01:55,120 --> 00:01:58,200 the Packers. This looks like another sandwich spot. Don't know 46 00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:00,280 if we can trust the Giants though as the best, 47 00:02:00,319 --> 00:02:01,840 but we'll find out. And you always look for a 48 00:02:01,879 --> 00:02:05,239 catalyst with these ugly ducklings, and maybe we have it 49 00:02:05,319 --> 00:02:08,879 this week. Rookie Jackson Dart getting the start for the Giants. 50 00:02:09,240 --> 00:02:11,159 I like the fact they're at home and they're facing 51 00:02:11,159 --> 00:02:13,680 a team in somewhat of a flat sandwich spot. And 52 00:02:13,719 --> 00:02:15,439 I also like the fact that Dart looked good in 53 00:02:15,479 --> 00:02:18,639 the preseason. He actually played extremely well for the Giants 54 00:02:18,719 --> 00:02:21,680 this preseason. Hey, look, they can't go anywhere but up. 55 00:02:21,680 --> 00:02:23,560 They've had one good offensive game and that was against 56 00:02:23,560 --> 00:02:25,840 the Cowboys. How bad is that Cowboy defense? Giving up 57 00:02:25,879 --> 00:02:28,439 thirty seven points over four under passing yards to the 58 00:02:28,439 --> 00:02:30,479 Giants in Week two, because the Giants have scored only 59 00:02:30,560 --> 00:02:33,319 six and nine points in their other two games against 60 00:02:33,319 --> 00:02:36,080 the Commanders and Chiefs. Looks like a bad spot here 61 00:02:36,080 --> 00:02:39,400 though for the Chargers. Once again, I'm not interested in 62 00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:42,599 backing the g men normally, but here. Again, the Chargers 63 00:02:42,599 --> 00:02:45,039 are a team that could be in a tremendous letdown spot. 64 00:02:45,039 --> 00:02:47,240 If you're looking to fade the most public play this week, 65 00:02:47,759 --> 00:02:50,039 then that is definitely the New York Giants here as 66 00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:51,560 a six and a half point dog, and once again, 67 00:02:51,599 --> 00:02:54,199 maybe we'll get seven, probably not by Sunday, but I 68 00:02:54,240 --> 00:02:56,280 think those sixers will turn into six and a halfs 69 00:02:56,319 --> 00:03:00,319 before it's all done. That game's at one o'clock eastern, right, 70 00:03:00,400 --> 00:03:03,120 another game at one o'clock eastern and ding Ding Ray Flederlark. 71 00:03:03,159 --> 00:03:06,280 We got a public underdog, but not my Washington Commanders 72 00:03:06,319 --> 00:03:08,159 are getting some love this week, and they do qualify 73 00:03:08,159 --> 00:03:10,400 as a public dog because currently that line is plus 74 00:03:10,439 --> 00:03:13,080 two to two and a half. Now, some of it's 75 00:03:13,120 --> 00:03:15,599 because of the injury situation. The Commanders might very well 76 00:03:15,639 --> 00:03:17,680 be favored in this game if Jaden Daniels was healthy. 77 00:03:17,719 --> 00:03:19,599 So I'm not going to call it a huge public dog. 78 00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:22,319 I'd like to see public dogs at more than a 79 00:03:22,319 --> 00:03:24,080 field goal. But they're still getting a lot of love 80 00:03:24,120 --> 00:03:26,560 here and a lot of consensus that I look at 81 00:03:26,599 --> 00:03:30,120 have people picking them straight up. So the Washington Commanders 82 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:31,680 are one of the more public plays this week, and 83 00:03:31,719 --> 00:03:34,039 definitely the most public dog on the board at plus two, 84 00:03:34,520 --> 00:03:37,080 and as I mentioned, Jaden Daniels is out. Marcus Mariotta 85 00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:40,879 listed as named as the starter's Friday afternoon, not a surprise. 86 00:03:41,199 --> 00:03:44,479 Daniels has the knee injury, and this is also a 87 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:47,960 situation with Mariotte is very capable of leading the team, 88 00:03:48,000 --> 00:03:51,000 as he has done so with numerous NFL teams in 89 00:03:51,039 --> 00:03:52,919 the past, and he's looked really good with his Commander's 90 00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:54,240 offense the last couple of years. 91 00:03:54,319 --> 00:03:56,280 Speaker 2: Last year he had limited action, but he. 92 00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:58,120 Speaker 1: Threw for three hundred and sixty four yards and four 93 00:03:58,159 --> 00:04:01,319 touchdowns one thirty one rating. This year, he's had one 94 00:04:01,360 --> 00:04:03,919 game under his belt two hundred and seven yards last 95 00:04:03,919 --> 00:04:07,199 week against the Raiders, a one to nineteen rating, five touchdowns, 96 00:04:07,199 --> 00:04:09,159 no picks. The last two years in limited action with 97 00:04:09,159 --> 00:04:11,360 the Commanders, and of course, the last time he was 98 00:04:11,400 --> 00:04:13,960 a full time starter was back in twenty twenty two 99 00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:16,759 with the Falcons over twenty two hundred passing yards in 100 00:04:16,839 --> 00:04:20,240 eighty eight QB rating and for his career now ninety 101 00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:23,800 eight touchdowns, fifty five picks a ninety point four QB rating, 102 00:04:23,839 --> 00:04:26,600 so he's been more than adequate and he's also mobile, 103 00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:29,279 which is the key to Jaden Daniel's success and this 104 00:04:29,319 --> 00:04:32,079 Commander offense because this year they're averaging almost six yards 105 00:04:32,079 --> 00:04:34,959 per carry rushing the ball, but just over six yards 106 00:04:35,000 --> 00:04:38,160 per pass. Falcons actually fit a pretty good spot here. 107 00:04:38,199 --> 00:04:41,000 Off the shutout loss Aaron embarrassed last week and something 108 00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:43,000 that always catches mind. We don't talk about this a lot, 109 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:44,959 but I always use filters, right. I'd love to fade 110 00:04:44,959 --> 00:04:47,759 public dogs. That's one of my favorite filters using the 111 00:04:47,800 --> 00:04:50,240 consensus data here, and that would obviously fit here, fading 112 00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:53,120 the Washington Commanders. But something else is when a team 113 00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:55,600 is public one week and then is a play against 114 00:04:55,639 --> 00:04:57,480 team the very next week, that usually seems like an 115 00:04:57,480 --> 00:05:00,639 extreme overreaction. And if your recall last week week, Atlanta 116 00:05:00,800 --> 00:05:02,800 was one of the two additional public leans I gave 117 00:05:02,839 --> 00:05:04,839 you here in the video, and as I said, they 118 00:05:04,879 --> 00:05:09,680 got smacked outright by the Carolina Panthers and not even 119 00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:13,000 close to being in the game thirty to nothing. Lots 120 00:05:13,040 --> 00:05:15,600 of talks about benching Panics, bringing Kirk Cousins in there 121 00:05:15,639 --> 00:05:17,439 not doing it, which makes me think they still see 122 00:05:17,480 --> 00:05:20,399 something in the young quarterback. This looks like the spot 123 00:05:20,480 --> 00:05:23,399 maybe to play real contrarier and take Atlanta. Laying the points. 124 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:26,040 Public is all over the dog here looks like a 125 00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:28,279 good bounce back spot for the Falcons. So I would 126 00:05:28,319 --> 00:05:31,839 fade the public here and fade not my Washington Commanders, 127 00:05:31,839 --> 00:05:33,959 and they're truly not my Washington Commanders this week, because 128 00:05:33,959 --> 00:05:36,959 I'd like Atlanta minus the two that's at one o'clock eastern. 129 00:05:37,959 --> 00:05:39,959 Two more public plays, and they just happen to be 130 00:05:40,000 --> 00:05:42,319 your Sunday and Monday night games, just the way it 131 00:05:42,360 --> 00:05:45,279 worked out Sunday night, eight o'clock eastern, eight twenty eastern 132 00:05:45,279 --> 00:05:48,839 to be exact. On NBC National TV, it is Sunday 133 00:05:48,920 --> 00:05:50,920 Night Football. And I referenced how the Packers last week 134 00:05:50,959 --> 00:05:52,800 were in a bad spot, they were one of the 135 00:05:52,800 --> 00:05:55,519 most public plays. Well, the public's jumping right back on 136 00:05:55,600 --> 00:05:58,000 them again this week, and it's hard to disagree. This 137 00:05:58,079 --> 00:06:01,079 does look like a bounce back spot for Green after 138 00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:03,279 the bad losses a road touchdown favorite, and keep in 139 00:06:03,360 --> 00:06:06,120 mind they were up ten to nothing, controlled the majority 140 00:06:06,120 --> 00:06:08,000 of that game against Cleveland last week, and I really 141 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:10,120 do think it was just a true flat spot after 142 00:06:10,160 --> 00:06:12,920 scoring fifty four points in high profile wins against the 143 00:06:12,959 --> 00:06:15,759 Lions and Commanders with this look ahead Sunday night game 144 00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:18,600 on deck, and it's hard to trust Dallas in this spot. 145 00:06:19,319 --> 00:06:21,279 This is a defense that's been horrendous all year. 146 00:06:21,319 --> 00:06:21,480 Speaker 2: Now. 147 00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:23,839 Speaker 1: The offense has suffered a major blow with Ceedee Lamb 148 00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:28,040 out for the foreseeable future with the injury, so their 149 00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:30,120 weaker on offense, their defense has been terrible. In fact, 150 00:06:30,120 --> 00:06:32,160 they haven't stopped anybody all season. The only time they've 151 00:06:32,160 --> 00:06:35,680 stopped anybody is when the weather delay stopped the Philadelphia Eagles. 152 00:06:35,759 --> 00:06:37,800 Neither offense did anything after that one hour delay, and 153 00:06:37,839 --> 00:06:40,800 the Thursday night opener Cowboys were unable to stop Philly 154 00:06:40,800 --> 00:06:43,639 before that gave up thirty seven points to the Giants. 155 00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:45,759 As I just discussed, the Giants have scored six and 156 00:06:45,879 --> 00:06:47,879 nine points total in their other two games. They scored 157 00:06:47,879 --> 00:06:50,240 thirty seven and threw for over four hundred and twenty 158 00:06:50,279 --> 00:06:53,480 yards against this Cowboy defense, and then last week they 159 00:06:53,480 --> 00:06:55,399 made the Chicago Bears look pretty good as well, given 160 00:06:55,480 --> 00:06:58,079 up thirty one points and just over three hundred and 161 00:06:58,160 --> 00:07:02,519 eighty total yards. I don't trust this Dallas defense, so 162 00:07:02,759 --> 00:07:04,639 it would be the Packers or passed for me, even 163 00:07:04,639 --> 00:07:06,360 though Green Bay is one of the most public sides 164 00:07:06,399 --> 00:07:09,120 this week, I don't disagree something else I will point 165 00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:11,240 out though the look aheadline this summer was around two 166 00:07:11,279 --> 00:07:13,920 to two and a half even a week ago, is 167 00:07:13,959 --> 00:07:16,240 around four to four and a half. Now it's six 168 00:07:16,279 --> 00:07:18,040 and a half based on last week's results. And oh, 169 00:07:18,079 --> 00:07:20,879 by the way, Dallas was one of the most public 170 00:07:20,920 --> 00:07:22,600 sides last week. That is one of those games that 171 00:07:22,639 --> 00:07:24,439 made the video last week, and now the public is 172 00:07:24,439 --> 00:07:26,959 fading them. As I mentioned with the Falcons, that's always 173 00:07:26,959 --> 00:07:29,279 a red flag for me. So lots of things I 174 00:07:29,319 --> 00:07:31,959 don't like about backing green Bay, but the situational set 175 00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:35,000 up screams Packers. So let's just look at the team total. 176 00:07:35,399 --> 00:07:37,439 Let's play the Packers over twenty seven and a half 177 00:07:37,480 --> 00:07:39,399 team total. That way, if Dallas gets the cover, you 178 00:07:39,439 --> 00:07:42,519 don't have to worry the game over, you know. Obviously, 179 00:07:42,560 --> 00:07:44,319 if Dallas covers, are gonna probably have to score some 180 00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:46,680 points because I don't think they can slow green Bay down. 181 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:48,560 So the over forty six and a half over forty 182 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:51,160 seven makes some sense as well. And this look aheadline 183 00:07:51,360 --> 00:07:54,319 initial opener even was as high as forty eight and 184 00:07:54,360 --> 00:07:56,120 a half in some spots a week ago. Now it's 185 00:07:56,160 --> 00:07:58,560 forty six and a half forty seven, So I like 186 00:07:58,600 --> 00:08:00,519 the game over, but I think the Packer team total 187 00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:02,160 over twenty seven and a half makes a lot of 188 00:08:02,199 --> 00:08:05,000 sense if you want to avoid being on the side itself, 189 00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:08,160 as Green Bay is very public this week. All right, 190 00:08:08,199 --> 00:08:10,120 your final game is that Monday night game with there's 191 00:08:10,120 --> 00:08:12,319 actually two Monday Night games. It's the later one at 192 00:08:12,360 --> 00:08:14,519 eight to fifteen Eastern. And by the way, I do 193 00:08:14,560 --> 00:08:16,639 have a deep dive two for one special video for 194 00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:18,759 both Monday Night games with free plays in both of 195 00:08:18,759 --> 00:08:21,800 them Jets, Dolphins, Bengals Broncos. But I'm going to talk 196 00:08:21,839 --> 00:08:24,240 about the late game here as well, because the Broncos 197 00:08:24,279 --> 00:08:26,720 are one of the more public sides this week, laying 198 00:08:26,759 --> 00:08:28,519 the seven and a half. And this is another game 199 00:08:29,000 --> 00:08:31,160 in which the initial line this summer is around two 200 00:08:31,160 --> 00:08:33,159 to two and a half. Now it's seven and a half, 201 00:08:33,240 --> 00:08:36,039 and of course Joe Burrow is out for the Bengals. 202 00:08:36,039 --> 00:08:38,799 That's why we've seen the big line adjustment. Jake Browning, 203 00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:42,840 the third year quarterback from Washington University, is not the answer. 204 00:08:42,919 --> 00:08:45,720 He's been very mediocre. But even when Burrow was in 205 00:08:45,759 --> 00:08:47,320 the lineup for a game and a half this season, 206 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:50,240 they were barely averaging over five yards per pass. So 207 00:08:50,279 --> 00:08:53,399 Cincinnati is struggling right now, and there's still two and 208 00:08:53,480 --> 00:08:55,679 one straight up and against the spread. The Broncos are 209 00:08:55,679 --> 00:08:58,559 the one and two straight up team, and that does 210 00:08:58,600 --> 00:09:00,679 seem weird, but it also tells you that can overlook 211 00:09:00,720 --> 00:09:03,360 this game. It's a Monday night game, thin air and altitude, 212 00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:05,879 Broncos are passed for me. I don't like giving up 213 00:09:05,879 --> 00:09:07,519 this much line valley at seven and a half, so 214 00:09:07,559 --> 00:09:10,600 I think the Broncos on a teaser down to minus 215 00:09:10,600 --> 00:09:12,399 one and a half actually might be the best option. 216 00:09:12,720 --> 00:09:14,519 If you're watching this during the weekend here as most 217 00:09:14,559 --> 00:09:15,799 of you are, you can tie that up with some 218 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:18,159 of the Sunday games, or if you're watching this later, 219 00:09:18,159 --> 00:09:19,399 you could tie it up with one of the games 220 00:09:19,440 --> 00:09:21,559 next week. But since this is the FAID the public 221 00:09:21,639 --> 00:09:23,600 video for Sunday, I'm assuming most of you are still 222 00:09:23,600 --> 00:09:26,000 watching before the games have kicked off. I do like 223 00:09:26,039 --> 00:09:27,879 the Broncos minus one and a half as a six 224 00:09:27,919 --> 00:09:30,080 point teaser this week. Could tie that up with some 225 00:09:30,120 --> 00:09:33,000 other games this Sunday. And another thing about the Bengals, 226 00:09:33,000 --> 00:09:35,320 They've got the young quarterback, hostile environment, thin air and 227 00:09:35,360 --> 00:09:38,080 altitude road game, Monday Night. He's got no running game 228 00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:40,840 to rely on. Bengals have rushed for fifty three yards 229 00:09:40,919 --> 00:09:42,799 or less in each of their three games so far 230 00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:46,399 this season. Broncos also last year since bo nixt joined 231 00:09:46,440 --> 00:09:48,639 the team. Eight and oh straight up is a favorite 232 00:09:48,679 --> 00:09:50,840 last year, and they beat the Titans this sweet year 233 00:09:50,840 --> 00:09:52,600 in Week one, so they were nine and oh straight 234 00:09:52,639 --> 00:09:55,120 up eight and one against the spread. They're only non 235 00:09:55,120 --> 00:09:57,600 covers by half a point. They did lose as a 236 00:09:57,639 --> 00:10:01,440 one point favorite at Indianapolis a point, so you could 237 00:10:01,480 --> 00:10:04,120 say technically they're nine and one is a favorite, but 238 00:10:04,399 --> 00:10:06,759 before that game nine to zero and they're only non 239 00:10:06,799 --> 00:10:07,799 covers by half a point. 240 00:10:07,799 --> 00:10:08,480 Speaker 2: There are other wins. 241 00:10:08,480 --> 00:10:11,240 Speaker 1: Every win was by nine or more otherwise, including seven 242 00:10:11,240 --> 00:10:13,799 of the eight last year by double digits. So Denver 243 00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:16,480 is kind of a bully team and they're good as favorites. 244 00:10:16,519 --> 00:10:18,440 They struggle against better teams, so I think they win 245 00:10:18,519 --> 00:10:20,720 this one minus one and a half teaser makes a 246 00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:23,399 lot of sense, But Broncos are passed for me. This's 247 00:10:23,399 --> 00:10:25,919 another situation. I'm not looking to fade the public on 248 00:10:26,039 --> 00:10:28,960 Monday night. There you go. Those are the foremost public 249 00:10:29,039 --> 00:10:31,840 sides here for Week four. Once the most public play 250 00:10:31,840 --> 00:10:34,600 of the week the LA Chargers minus the six and 251 00:10:34,639 --> 00:10:37,120 a half. Also the public dog of the week the 252 00:10:37,120 --> 00:10:40,000 Commanders plus two, and then the public is also on 253 00:10:40,039 --> 00:10:42,039 both the Packers minus six and a half Sunday Night 254 00:10:42,279 --> 00:10:44,840 and the Broncos minus seven and a half Monday Night. Hey, 255 00:10:44,840 --> 00:10:46,759 I agree with some I disagree with others. What are 256 00:10:46,799 --> 00:10:49,720 your thoughts on these four public plays? Comment below and 257 00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:52,679 include some analysis. If you have time, we read the comments, 258 00:10:52,720 --> 00:10:55,320 we reply back here on wager Talk TV. I'm gonna 259 00:10:55,320 --> 00:10:57,320 give you one additional public lean in just a moment, 260 00:10:57,639 --> 00:10:59,799 but I want to remind you my personal best bets 261 00:10:59,799 --> 00:11:02,960 are on my page Steve Merrill, wager Talk dot com, 262 00:11:03,000 --> 00:11:04,759 and you can also get a daily free play. My 263 00:11:04,879 --> 00:11:06,840 last cut for my best bat card goes up free 264 00:11:06,879 --> 00:11:09,919 for everyone, So check out Sunday's free play right now, 265 00:11:10,000 --> 00:11:12,159 or if you're joining us earlier on Saturday, hey, check 266 00:11:12,159 --> 00:11:14,320 out Saturday's free play. Daily free play every day on 267 00:11:14,320 --> 00:11:17,039 my page right now, either baseball or football free play 268 00:11:17,080 --> 00:11:19,720 on a daily basis, Steve Merrill, wager Talk dot com. 269 00:11:19,759 --> 00:11:22,039 You can get there quicker, by the way with shortcut 270 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:26,840 wt dot buzz slash sm all right on the way 271 00:11:26,879 --> 00:11:29,279 out here. Let's give you one additional public lean. This 272 00:11:29,279 --> 00:11:32,000 one wasn't quite as strong as the four official public plays, 273 00:11:32,080 --> 00:11:34,840 but still getting some good public sentiment. The fifth most 274 00:11:34,879 --> 00:11:37,440 public play this week would be the Detroit Lions minus ten. 275 00:11:37,879 --> 00:11:40,840 That's an early game at one o'clock Eastern on Sunday afternoon. 276 00:11:41,399 --> 00:11:43,559 And this is a situation a couple things. I think 277 00:11:43,559 --> 00:11:47,039 the public likes the Lions after they beat the Ravens 278 00:11:47,279 --> 00:11:50,240 blew out the Bears. People feel like the Packers are 279 00:11:50,240 --> 00:11:52,159 for real. So the Detroit Lions, best team in the 280 00:11:52,240 --> 00:11:54,600 NFC last year until they lost in the playoffs, is 281 00:11:54,639 --> 00:11:56,840 getting some public love and also a little bit of 282 00:11:56,840 --> 00:11:58,840 a play against against the Browns. Public fan of the 283 00:11:58,840 --> 00:12:01,960 Browns last week come from behind when Green Bay. 284 00:12:01,840 --> 00:12:03,320 Speaker 2: Was in a bad spot. They're not a believer. 285 00:12:03,639 --> 00:12:05,480 Speaker 1: Cleveland just won and two and their one road game 286 00:12:05,519 --> 00:12:08,720 this year was that blowout loss at Baltimore by twenty 287 00:12:08,759 --> 00:12:11,399 four points. But the Browns have been a feisty dog 288 00:12:11,519 --> 00:12:13,879 so far this season if you look at them overall. 289 00:12:13,919 --> 00:12:15,600 They only lost by point to the Bengals, and I 290 00:12:15,639 --> 00:12:18,679 know the Bengals haven't been good, but still gave up 291 00:12:18,679 --> 00:12:20,879 only seventeen points and ten points in their other two 292 00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:23,600 games this year, and their run defense has actually been 293 00:12:23,720 --> 00:12:26,159 very strong overall this season. They've held two of their 294 00:12:26,159 --> 00:12:28,799 three opponents of forty six rushing yards are less, they've 295 00:12:28,799 --> 00:12:31,080 held all three of them to eighty yards or less rushing, 296 00:12:31,360 --> 00:12:33,320 and if you look at their statistical makeup this year, 297 00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:35,720 they're giving up just two point three yards per carry 298 00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:38,639 and just five point seven yards per pass against teams 299 00:12:38,639 --> 00:12:41,720 at average seven point one. They will be tested for 300 00:12:41,759 --> 00:12:44,080 sure this week against the Detroit Lions, one of the 301 00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:47,039 best pass attacks, especially on that indoor fast track. But 302 00:12:47,120 --> 00:12:49,679 once again, Detroit's coming off two high profile wins. They 303 00:12:49,679 --> 00:12:52,279 lost that to Visual Open to Green Bay, then they 304 00:12:52,279 --> 00:12:55,480 blew out the Bears big road dog win on Monday 305 00:12:55,519 --> 00:12:58,200 Night Football. On top of that against the Ravens now 306 00:12:58,240 --> 00:13:00,840 they come home as a double digit non Conferend's favorite. 307 00:13:01,000 --> 00:13:03,320 Could see a scenario here with Detroit wins the game 308 00:13:03,360 --> 00:13:06,080 but doesn't cover. I think it's probably safe still for 309 00:13:06,120 --> 00:13:09,039 your survivor pools. Buffalo minus fifteen is pretty much an 310 00:13:09,039 --> 00:13:11,120 automatic survivor if you haven't used the bills yet, But 311 00:13:11,120 --> 00:13:12,799 if you used them last Thursday night, as some of 312 00:13:12,840 --> 00:13:16,159 you might have, Detroit minus ten or Texans minus seven 313 00:13:16,159 --> 00:13:17,600 are probably the two other survivor picks. 314 00:13:17,639 --> 00:13:18,200 Speaker 2: That makes sense. 315 00:13:18,200 --> 00:13:20,120 Speaker 1: So I wanted to point out to you that the lines, 316 00:13:20,159 --> 00:13:23,039 although not in the official public play, is an additional 317 00:13:23,039 --> 00:13:25,039 public lean as the public is definitely lined up on 318 00:13:25,080 --> 00:13:28,480 the Detroit side here on Sunday afternoon. All right, there 319 00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:30,639 you go, the most public plays on the board, play 320 00:13:30,679 --> 00:13:31,279 them or fadom. 321 00:13:31,279 --> 00:13:31,799 Speaker 2: It's up to you. 322 00:13:31,919 --> 00:13:34,639 Speaker 1: Drop your thoughts in the comments below, and once again, 323 00:13:34,720 --> 00:13:37,360 the public turning along fathom has been pretty good so 324 00:13:37,440 --> 00:13:39,840 far this year, eleven and five against the spread. We 325 00:13:39,879 --> 00:13:42,759 don't just automatically fadum. We pick our spots. We use 326 00:13:42,799 --> 00:13:45,120 this as a filter, but in general fading the public 327 00:13:45,159 --> 00:13:47,200 does win more times than not and usually get some 328 00:13:47,200 --> 00:13:50,639 additional line value as well by fading the most public sides. 329 00:13:50,960 --> 00:13:53,879 If you're finding this video useful, thumbs up like that's 330 00:13:53,919 --> 00:13:56,480 all I ask. Click that thumbs up like takes two seconds, 331 00:13:56,480 --> 00:13:57,960 and I will keep doing this each and every week 332 00:13:58,000 --> 00:14:00,159 for you, And don't forget. If you haven't subscribed to 333 00:14:00,159 --> 00:14:02,039 wager Talk TV, what are you waiting for? Over two 334 00:14:02,159 --> 00:14:05,279 hundred and twenty thousand subscribers can't be wrong? Click it 335 00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:08,000 for free and click that bell for an instant alert 336 00:14:08,440 --> 00:14:10,799 so you never miss out when these free videos are 337 00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:12,600 posted it. I do this fade the public every week, 338 00:14:12,639 --> 00:14:15,000 but I also do standalone solo videos for the Sunday 339 00:14:15,039 --> 00:14:18,720 Monday night games Thursday Night Prime game undefeated this season 340 00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:21,399 we cashed again this week. We've won every Thursday free 341 00:14:21,399 --> 00:14:24,159 play and last year we hit over seventy percent on 342 00:14:24,200 --> 00:14:27,120 those Thursday Night Prime video games. I usually get those 343 00:14:27,200 --> 00:14:29,000 up Monday or Tuesday early in the week for you, 344 00:14:29,279 --> 00:14:31,200 so when you subscribe, click the bell for an instant 345 00:14:31,240 --> 00:14:33,679 alert so you never miss free play videos. Tons in 346 00:14:33,720 --> 00:14:36,720 college football as well this week, and also baseball and 347 00:14:36,799 --> 00:14:39,960 basketball right around the corner. Baseball playoffs start this coming 348 00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:42,720 week on Tuesday. Never miss out here on wager Talk 349 00:14:42,759 --> 00:14:45,440 TV when you subscribe and click the bell. And finally, 350 00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:47,440 if you want my official best bets for this Sunday 351 00:14:47,440 --> 00:14:49,559 Pro football, check them out right now on my page 352 00:14:49,799 --> 00:14:52,679 Steve Merrill wager talk dot com. As I mentioned earlier, 353 00:14:52,679 --> 00:14:55,960 get there quicker with shortcut WT dot Buzz slash sm 354 00:14:56,320 --> 00:14:58,799 and also get a daily free play while you're there. 355 00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:01,320 The process it's quite simple. If I'm using the game, 356 00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:02,919 if it's a personal best bet, I send it all 357 00:15:02,919 --> 00:15:04,919 my clients. I've done it for over twenty nine years 358 00:15:04,919 --> 00:15:07,360 since I started back at August of nineteen ninety six. 359 00:15:07,440 --> 00:15:11,200 It's my thirtieth football season as a full time professional handicapper. 360 00:15:11,480 --> 00:15:12,200 Speaker 2: If I'm using a. 361 00:15:12,120 --> 00:15:14,679 Speaker 1: Personal best bet, all my subscribers get it, I send 362 00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:16,879 it to all of them instantly. That last cut from 363 00:15:16,879 --> 00:15:18,879 the best bet card is still a really strong opinion. 364 00:15:19,159 --> 00:15:20,960 I post it for free every day, So check out 365 00:15:20,960 --> 00:15:23,720 the daily free play, check out the strong Sunday NFL 366 00:15:23,759 --> 00:15:26,120 best Bets, and while you're there, check out a special 367 00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:29,480 promo code for this week. Access thirty gets you the 368 00:15:29,519 --> 00:15:32,159 next any all sport all Access pass. It can be 369 00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:34,879 a one day, one week, one month, one year, and 370 00:15:34,879 --> 00:15:36,799 you get an instant thirty percent discount when you use 371 00:15:36,879 --> 00:15:38,559 Access thirty at checkout. 372 00:15:38,480 --> 00:15:41,120 Speaker 2: Access three zero. 373 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:44,039 Speaker 1: Access thirty got the full details written up on my 374 00:15:44,039 --> 00:15:45,840 page right now so you don't have to memorize it. 375 00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:48,799 But any all sport all Access pass which includes baseball, 376 00:15:48,840 --> 00:15:52,279 by the way, baseball, college football, Pro football, basketball right 377 00:15:52,279 --> 00:15:53,840 around the corner. If you do a month or one year, 378 00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:55,960 you're gonna get basketball, which is about to start. If 379 00:15:56,000 --> 00:15:58,080 you want a one day package, it's thirty nine. Normally 380 00:15:58,159 --> 00:16:00,120 thirty percent discount gets it down to twenty seven, and 381 00:16:00,399 --> 00:16:02,480 one NFL Best bets for Sunday is twenty five. You 382 00:16:02,519 --> 00:16:05,559 get everything for twenty seven with that thirty percent discount. 383 00:16:05,799 --> 00:16:07,879 Or how about a three day package get it from 384 00:16:07,919 --> 00:16:09,720 sixty nine down to I believe, what is it of 385 00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:12,360 forty nine thirty seven? I have to do the math 386 00:16:12,679 --> 00:16:15,000 ninety nine dollars one week package down to sixty nine. 387 00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:17,480 It's that simple. One month, one year. Now you're saving 388 00:16:17,559 --> 00:16:19,240 hundreds of dollars and getting it down to just a 389 00:16:19,240 --> 00:16:23,600 couple dollars per day per play. Access thirty gets it done, 390 00:16:23,679 --> 00:16:25,240 whether it's a one day up to a one year 391 00:16:25,279 --> 00:16:27,279 any all sport all access package. This week and the 392 00:16:27,360 --> 00:16:29,919 two purchase on my page gets an instant thirty percent 393 00:16:29,960 --> 00:16:33,240 discount when you use promo code Access thirty at checkout 394 00:16:33,480 --> 00:16:36,200 Steve Merrill, wager talk dot com and hey get there 395 00:16:36,279 --> 00:16:41,240 quicker with shortcut WT dot buzz slash SM don't forget 396 00:16:41,279 --> 00:16:43,600 to follow me on social media at Steve Merrill two 397 00:16:43,759 --> 00:16:47,399 RS one L M E R R I L at 398 00:16:47,399 --> 00:16:50,480 Steve Merrill on X and Instagram, and stay tuned here 399 00:16:50,480 --> 00:16:53,320 to wager Talk TV because you know there's more free 400 00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:55,240 play videos coming up next.