1 00:00:21,879 --> 00:00:25,399 Speaker 1: And hello, here we go. Welcome to the Big Podcast. 2 00:00:25,480 --> 00:00:27,160 It is Friday. 3 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:32,119 Speaker 2: Yep, today's the fifteenth day of May, year of our 4 00:00:32,119 --> 00:00:36,200 lower twenty twenty six. My name is Tom Sullivan, and yep, 5 00:00:36,280 --> 00:00:39,520 we're zooming through May. Got half of it over, and 6 00:00:39,640 --> 00:00:48,039 the big meeting in Beijing is over. And well, I 7 00:00:48,079 --> 00:00:50,719 would love to tell you what the big headline is. 8 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:53,439 I would love to tell you about the big announcement, 9 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:56,880 about the big accomplishment about the Oh, there isn't any 10 00:00:58,119 --> 00:01:02,439 I mean everything they I The President's on his way 11 00:01:02,479 --> 00:01:09,359 back to DC, and there's nothing that you can say, 12 00:01:09,480 --> 00:01:13,760 oh wow, look at that there was There wasn't any 13 00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:16,719 big announcement of any kind. And and and when asked 14 00:01:16,799 --> 00:01:19,439 any kind of question about well, well, well is he 15 00:01:19,519 --> 00:01:23,760 going to help out with a run? Well I didn't 16 00:01:23,799 --> 00:01:27,640 ask him. And then he but but he might. And 17 00:01:27,799 --> 00:01:30,040 what about what about Taiwan? What about Taiwan? That was 18 00:01:30,079 --> 00:01:36,840 the big deal for for President She and the president 19 00:01:36,920 --> 00:01:41,959 has like a fourteen billion dollar bill to sign. The 20 00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:45,519 Congress has already approved giving Taiwan fourteen billion dollars worth 21 00:01:45,560 --> 00:01:49,239 of military aid and the President has had it on 22 00:01:49,319 --> 00:01:52,120 his desk now for quite a few weeks and well 23 00:01:52,120 --> 00:01:54,239 you're going to sign it. You're going to sign it. Well, 24 00:01:55,879 --> 00:02:01,200 no comment, no response whatsoever. And you know that President, 25 00:02:01,280 --> 00:02:04,519 she said, please don't do that. And so Trump is 26 00:02:04,560 --> 00:02:08,080 now kind of well, yeah, out of the whole thing. 27 00:02:08,120 --> 00:02:10,680 It's being the headline is coming out about the fact 28 00:02:11,159 --> 00:02:18,719 that the talks were about stability. What's that mean? I mean, 29 00:02:18,759 --> 00:02:22,960 I know what stability means. He is stable. But who's stable? 30 00:02:23,120 --> 00:02:28,199 China's stable? Worse, table Iron is stable? Who's who is 31 00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:33,120 Who's the stable one here? So let's go through some 32 00:02:33,199 --> 00:02:36,960 of the experts. We've got that, We've got some observations 33 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:40,000 about what's going on with Iran, because now once the 34 00:02:40,000 --> 00:02:44,400 president gets back in DC, right there the front top 35 00:02:44,439 --> 00:02:46,599 of his desk is what are you going to do 36 00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:47,280 about Iran? 37 00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:52,159 Speaker 1: Oh? And Cuba? 38 00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:58,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, Cuba is still something oil and gas? How's that 39 00:02:59,039 --> 00:03:04,879 going for you? And Kamala Harris has some ideas for 40 00:03:05,439 --> 00:03:08,639 new ideas that are not so new. So we'll go 41 00:03:08,719 --> 00:03:12,800 through all that with you today. Let's start with Seth Jones. 42 00:03:12,879 --> 00:03:17,560 He is from the Center for Strategic Studies. Now, he's 43 00:03:17,599 --> 00:03:20,879 a guy that's deeply He's been a big advisor for 44 00:03:21,120 --> 00:03:24,319 some of the top generals in the Pentagon. He's a 45 00:03:24,520 --> 00:03:28,520 think tank guy that he was asked about, well, what 46 00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:32,199 did you make of the big meeting? Oh, and also 47 00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:34,719 would you think of the opening statement by President She 48 00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:38,879 about Taiwan. Basically, no, you better not mess with Taiwan. 49 00:03:39,360 --> 00:03:40,319 You're Seth Jones. 50 00:03:40,360 --> 00:03:43,240 Speaker 3: I think that's a direct threat to the United States. 51 00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:47,360 President she has repeatedly said that Taiwan is an internal 52 00:03:47,360 --> 00:03:51,039 issue and that anybody that were to get involved, if 53 00:03:51,080 --> 00:03:54,520 the Chinese were to take Taiwan, either through an amphibious 54 00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:58,319 assault or through some sort of blockade or gray zone activity, 55 00:03:58,879 --> 00:04:01,400 that they will consider it a threat to the Chinese state. 56 00:04:01,840 --> 00:04:04,280 So I mean for me, and you know, just being 57 00:04:04,319 --> 00:04:07,919 in that region recently, you can see the People's Liberation Army, 58 00:04:07,960 --> 00:04:11,960 aircraft and naval vessels doing exercises on a regular basis 59 00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:13,599 for exactly that purpose. 60 00:04:13,879 --> 00:04:16,600 Speaker 2: All right, So President she said Taiwan's a big deal 61 00:04:16,639 --> 00:04:19,399 to him, and Seth Jones says that they're using all 62 00:04:19,480 --> 00:04:24,160 kinds of military equipment airplanes, boats, and so forth around Taiwan. 63 00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:29,480 So what about the fourteen billion dollar defense budget that 64 00:04:29,519 --> 00:04:33,240 we've allocated to give to Taiwan to defend themselves. 65 00:04:33,319 --> 00:04:35,439 Speaker 3: Ideally, it's to deter one in the first place. You 66 00:04:35,480 --> 00:04:38,160 don't want China detect that action. I mean, the problem 67 00:04:38,319 --> 00:04:41,399 is that the PLA rocket force has the ability to 68 00:04:41,439 --> 00:04:44,160 strike pretty much any target in the first island chain, 69 00:04:44,240 --> 00:04:48,000 so that area around Japan and south including Taiwan further 70 00:04:48,079 --> 00:04:51,199 out to Guam we'll call the second island chain. And 71 00:04:51,279 --> 00:04:54,240 so it forces the US to fire long range missiles. 72 00:04:54,480 --> 00:04:57,959 US has depleted its JAZZM, has depleted some of its 73 00:04:58,000 --> 00:05:01,240 It's fired over one thousand laws, and then it's also 74 00:05:01,839 --> 00:05:05,680 depleted its stockpile of defensive munitions like Patriot and that 75 00:05:06,079 --> 00:05:10,600 so really tough to fight a protracted war with China today. 76 00:05:10,800 --> 00:05:12,720 And that that's and you know, for many of these 77 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:15,079 weapons systems, it's a three to four year timeline to 78 00:05:15,439 --> 00:05:15,959 prodive it. 79 00:05:16,360 --> 00:05:20,439 Speaker 2: So is Defense Secretary Pete Haigseth on the hot seat. 80 00:05:21,079 --> 00:05:25,800 Speaker 1: I mean, who was keeping track of. 81 00:05:25,759 --> 00:05:28,839 Speaker 2: The inventory that A we had and B we were 82 00:05:28,879 --> 00:05:33,560 spending on Iran? How many missiles, how many defense systems, 83 00:05:33,560 --> 00:05:36,519 how many Patriots, how many all of that stuff. Somebody 84 00:05:36,519 --> 00:05:38,879 in the Pentagon's supposed to keep track of that, aren't they? 85 00:05:39,079 --> 00:05:42,800 And and the buck stops at the top. So haig 86 00:05:42,920 --> 00:05:46,600 Seth I would imagine it's going to be asked about 87 00:05:46,639 --> 00:05:51,000 this by probably the President saying, where where did who 88 00:05:51,079 --> 00:05:53,680 was watching the inventory? How did we get so low? 89 00:05:54,120 --> 00:05:57,360 This isn't the first time this idea that our military 90 00:05:57,360 --> 00:06:02,439 inventory is low. So, now what happens if we have 91 00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:06,519 to go to war against China tomorrow? How long would 92 00:06:06,600 --> 00:06:10,160 it take for US to run out. 93 00:06:10,759 --> 00:06:13,759 Speaker 3: Some of the munitions like the long range anti ship 94 00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:17,600 missiles maybe a week, a week, some of them maybe 95 00:06:17,639 --> 00:06:20,279 three weeks. I would force the US to go to 96 00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:23,800 other missiles shorter range, but put those aircraft that are 97 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:25,480 flying them in much greater danger. 98 00:06:26,319 --> 00:06:28,879 Speaker 2: I mean, so that doesn't sound good. We got a 99 00:06:28,879 --> 00:06:32,000 week to three weeks worth of missiles if we had 100 00:06:32,000 --> 00:06:35,680 to go to war against China. But is there really 101 00:06:35,879 --> 00:06:40,800 any imminent worry about going to war with China at 102 00:06:40,800 --> 00:06:41,199 this time? 103 00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:43,879 Speaker 3: I mean it's possible. I mean, the Chinese are not 104 00:06:44,399 --> 00:06:48,040 entirely ten feet tall. US has a much more sophisticated 105 00:06:48,079 --> 00:06:51,439 submarine capability under sea. The Chinese can't see very well. 106 00:06:51,480 --> 00:06:54,240 I was on an anti submarine mission recently with the Navy. 107 00:06:54,680 --> 00:06:57,480 We found our Chinese submarine pretty quickly. They can't find ours. 108 00:06:58,079 --> 00:07:00,959 But what it would do. But what it has done, 109 00:07:01,199 --> 00:07:03,959 what the Iran war has done, is almost certainly give 110 00:07:04,240 --> 00:07:10,000 China some hope that it can deter threaten the United 111 00:07:10,040 --> 00:07:10,800 States right now. 112 00:07:10,959 --> 00:07:13,720 Speaker 2: All right, a very knowledgeable guy. He knows the military 113 00:07:13,759 --> 00:07:16,800 stuff inside and out. So it is a little spooky 114 00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:19,480 to hear him say we don't have much left. And 115 00:07:19,560 --> 00:07:22,279 yet at the same time, I was heartened by the 116 00:07:22,319 --> 00:07:26,519 fact that the Chinese navy is now bigger than the 117 00:07:26,639 --> 00:07:31,600 US Navy. But the quality of their ships and the 118 00:07:31,600 --> 00:07:36,360 inability of their submarines to find our submarines is helpful 119 00:07:36,399 --> 00:07:39,000 to know. But out of this meetium, it's clear that 120 00:07:39,319 --> 00:07:45,040 Taiwan is the big, big deal for China. And will 121 00:07:45,079 --> 00:07:48,759 the president do the fourteen billion or not? We are waiting. 122 00:07:49,639 --> 00:07:53,120 I'm sure there'll have to be some announcement. Nicholas Burns 123 00:07:53,399 --> 00:07:58,079 was former ambassador to China. He knows that country backwards 124 00:07:58,079 --> 00:07:59,720 and forwards. Let's see what he says. 125 00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:01,839 Speaker 4: Well, it's hard to say. I think in some it's 126 00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:05,560 like this. My experience with the Chinese is sometimes you 127 00:08:05,600 --> 00:08:07,240 get a lot of promises, but you've got to look 128 00:08:07,279 --> 00:08:09,959 for the follow up and the commitments. Do they actually 129 00:08:10,439 --> 00:08:13,279 undertake what they said they would do. I do think 130 00:08:13,319 --> 00:08:16,199 it was important that they met. This is the most challenging, 131 00:08:16,480 --> 00:08:20,199 most dangerous relationship we have with any country in the world. 132 00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:23,959 If we want to stabilize that relationship, then our president 133 00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:26,319 has to be meeting with Lushijinping. I thought it was 134 00:08:26,680 --> 00:08:29,160 positive that they had the meeting. As you know, President 135 00:08:29,160 --> 00:08:32,279 Trump has invited President She to return for a return 136 00:08:32,399 --> 00:08:35,960 visit in September. But there are a lot of outstanding questions. 137 00:08:36,039 --> 00:08:39,440 Maybe they'll be answered today in the meetings on Friday 138 00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:43,639 in Beijing. Maybe they won't, but Taiwan is first and foremost. 139 00:08:44,080 --> 00:08:46,320 President She fired a shot across the bow of the 140 00:08:46,399 --> 00:08:49,559 United States with a very aggressive statement. It's not the 141 00:08:49,600 --> 00:08:52,559 first time he's done that, and that statement was meant 142 00:08:52,639 --> 00:08:55,919 to intimidate the United States. He essentially said, if the 143 00:08:56,000 --> 00:09:00,679 United States crosses China's red lines, there's a possibility conflict 144 00:09:00,679 --> 00:09:04,919 between the US and China. We can't be intimidated by that. 145 00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:07,879 And I think what I'm looking for following this summit, 146 00:09:08,399 --> 00:09:11,759 will President Trump go forward with this big arms package 147 00:09:11,799 --> 00:09:15,279 for Taiwan that we've been promising and that President Trump 148 00:09:15,399 --> 00:09:17,879 put to the side in order to have this meeting 149 00:09:17,919 --> 00:09:21,840 in Beijing. No American president for fifty years has allowed 150 00:09:22,080 --> 00:09:24,840 a leader in Beijing to tell us what we can 151 00:09:24,960 --> 00:09:28,360 and cannot do in helping Taiwan to defend itself. So 152 00:09:28,399 --> 00:09:31,600 I think that's one big issue to look for today. 153 00:09:32,120 --> 00:09:37,240 And secondly, on Iran, it's not surprising that the Chinese 154 00:09:37,279 --> 00:09:39,440 would say that they don't want Iran to become a 155 00:09:39,519 --> 00:09:42,360 nuclear weapons power. That's been their position for twenty years. 156 00:09:42,960 --> 00:09:47,200 It's also not surprising that Iran that China said, apparently 157 00:09:47,279 --> 00:09:50,000 in the meeting, that it wanted the strait to be 158 00:09:50,080 --> 00:09:53,759 open without Iran as a tollkeeper. That's been China's position 159 00:09:53,879 --> 00:09:57,039 since the start of the war on February twenty eighth. 160 00:09:57,480 --> 00:10:00,080 But I find it difficult to believe that the se 161 00:10:00,440 --> 00:10:02,720 are going to do a lot to help us out 162 00:10:02,720 --> 00:10:05,320 of the mess that we're in and to really lean 163 00:10:05,360 --> 00:10:09,120 on the Iranians to agree to a short a cease 164 00:10:09,159 --> 00:10:12,600 fire with the United States. So those are two big questions. 165 00:10:12,639 --> 00:10:14,840 There are many others that remain to be answered. 166 00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:18,480 Speaker 2: So our president keeps talking about the fact that President 167 00:10:18,559 --> 00:10:22,639 she said this, and see she said that, and yet 168 00:10:22,919 --> 00:10:25,919 China is mum on all of these They're not saying 169 00:10:26,200 --> 00:10:30,679 that President she made any promises of any kind on 170 00:10:30,840 --> 00:10:35,360 any topic. So, like I said, the meeting turned out 171 00:10:35,399 --> 00:10:41,039 to be not really anything. Randall Phillips he is the 172 00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:46,120 former CIA station chief in Beijing for US, though he 173 00:10:46,279 --> 00:10:47,720 was our top spy there. 174 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:50,480 Speaker 1: Well, he makes this gathering. 175 00:10:50,639 --> 00:10:53,759 Speaker 5: They I mean, I agree with what the Master Burunes said. 176 00:10:54,000 --> 00:10:57,639 I think you know a lot of good pleasantries and all, 177 00:10:57,679 --> 00:11:02,080 but the details are obviously still lacking. We have the 178 00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:05,679 US side putting out what the Chinese have supposedly said, 179 00:11:05,720 --> 00:11:08,519 but the Chinese haven't put out what the Chinese supposedly said. 180 00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:12,039 So there's gonna be a major difference in that situation. 181 00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:13,519 So we're gonna have to watch and see what comes 182 00:11:13,559 --> 00:11:16,399 out after the end of the meeting today. I think 183 00:11:16,440 --> 00:11:20,120 it's the Taiwan point is certainly very important at the 184 00:11:20,279 --> 00:11:22,639 uppermost here, and I couldn't agree more with Ambassador Burns 185 00:11:22,639 --> 00:11:27,080 that we cannot allow China to dictate what we do 186 00:11:27,159 --> 00:11:29,480 and do not do in terms of arms sales to Taiwan. 187 00:11:29,759 --> 00:11:31,919 I'm sure there have been some sleepless nights in Taipei 188 00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:34,240 with the leadership there. I think we also have to 189 00:11:34,240 --> 00:11:36,320 see what happens on the trade side. I'm sure there's 190 00:11:36,360 --> 00:11:40,120 going to be some announcements on deals made. I believe 191 00:11:40,159 --> 00:11:43,000 the President came out to announce the two hundred Boeings 192 00:11:43,120 --> 00:11:45,840 or so, which I think we're somewhat less than what 193 00:11:46,080 --> 00:11:49,080 people I'd hoped for, but good nonetheless, and I couldn't 194 00:11:49,080 --> 00:11:51,639 agree more with the Master Burns in terms of the 195 00:11:51,679 --> 00:11:52,720 fact the meeting happened. 196 00:11:52,799 --> 00:11:53,159 Speaker 1: Is great. 197 00:11:53,799 --> 00:11:56,000 Speaker 5: Now this meeting, we've got the meeting coming up in September, 198 00:11:56,080 --> 00:11:58,960 plus the G twenty and APEC later in the year 199 00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:01,720 will offer opportunities for the presidents to get together. So 200 00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:06,519 there's plenty of opportunity here to see this dayton to continue. 201 00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:08,559 But the devil's going to be in the details and 202 00:12:08,600 --> 00:12:09,360 we'll see tomorrow. 203 00:12:09,879 --> 00:12:14,399 Speaker 2: Well, so nothing happened on their Friday, So last night 204 00:12:14,759 --> 00:12:18,240 there was nothing new that really was announced as far 205 00:12:18,279 --> 00:12:22,440 as a big trade mission. That would have been nice. 206 00:12:22,440 --> 00:12:26,080 But and you heard what the CIA guy said. The 207 00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:28,879 President did say that the China said that they will 208 00:12:28,960 --> 00:12:33,519 order two hundred Boeing jets. Well they were supposed to. 209 00:12:33,600 --> 00:12:36,200 The rumor before the meeting was that China was going 210 00:12:36,240 --> 00:12:39,679 to buy five hundred Boeing jets. Now the President did 211 00:12:39,679 --> 00:12:43,559 say they'll buy two hundred. A we wait to see 212 00:12:43,559 --> 00:12:46,320 if they really do that, because you've heard a couple 213 00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:51,120 of times now they say that President she lies or 214 00:12:52,559 --> 00:12:56,759 the ambassador was more diplomatic, saying that you have to 215 00:12:56,840 --> 00:12:59,720 wait to see whether or not they come through on 216 00:12:59,799 --> 00:13:02,600 what they promised, which is another way of saying they lie. 217 00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:05,759 But I don't know where that came to. The President 218 00:13:05,759 --> 00:13:07,960 will say, well, the order may go to two hundred 219 00:13:07,960 --> 00:13:12,519 and seventy or seven hundred and fifty jets. In other words, 220 00:13:12,559 --> 00:13:15,279 maybe they took some options, maybe not as very vague. 221 00:13:15,759 --> 00:13:21,000 But the Boeing stock dropped yesterday and because nothing happened 222 00:13:21,399 --> 00:13:25,600 for more orders today this talk is down again better 223 00:13:25,639 --> 00:13:29,519 than seven and a half percent this afternoon. So not 224 00:13:30,039 --> 00:13:33,519 a great trade mission either. It says the focus for 225 00:13:33,679 --> 00:13:39,840 the Chinese was Taiwan. Here's what the president said about that. 226 00:13:40,000 --> 00:13:45,039 Speaker 6: Taiwani just not want to see a fight for independence speakers. 227 00:13:45,399 --> 00:13:49,679 That would be a very strong confrontation. And I heard 228 00:13:49,759 --> 00:13:51,120 him out, are. 229 00:13:50,960 --> 00:13:52,919 Speaker 1: You're gonna seeking to word now? I didn't make I 230 00:13:52,919 --> 00:13:53,799 didn't make a combient. 231 00:13:54,120 --> 00:13:55,919 Speaker 6: I heard him out. I have a lot of respects. 232 00:13:56,320 --> 00:13:59,200 He said on a red It's very interesting. You feel struggling. 233 00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:03,519 They can't have a weapon, said Jeff first strongly, they 234 00:14:03,559 --> 00:14:04,960 cannot have a nuclear weapon. 235 00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:07,320 Speaker 1: Ed he wants them to open up the straight. 236 00:14:07,799 --> 00:14:11,559 Speaker 2: Well, that's nice, except for China has not confirmed what 237 00:14:11,600 --> 00:14:14,720 the president said that she said. So it goes back 238 00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:18,399 to the CIA guy about the fact that you hear 239 00:14:18,519 --> 00:14:21,440 one side of the story from our president, you hear 240 00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:24,960 a different side of the story from their president. So 241 00:14:25,120 --> 00:14:30,919 it's it's a mystery. Say the very last, Mike Pompeo, 242 00:14:31,360 --> 00:14:34,840 former Secretary of State. He's another one that calls President 243 00:14:34,879 --> 00:14:35,559 she a liar. 244 00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:39,279 Speaker 7: Look in the end, Shishingping has lied multiple times to 245 00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:42,440 multiple presidents. The proof will be does he really follow 246 00:14:42,519 --> 00:14:47,559 through the commercial arrangement buying blowing airplanes? That's fantastic, sounds 247 00:14:47,559 --> 00:14:50,480 like he made some commitments on ventanyl precursors. We've seen 248 00:14:50,519 --> 00:14:53,080 that story before where they actually didn't follow through in 249 00:14:53,120 --> 00:14:56,120 a way that was serious or substantial. And so the 250 00:14:56,159 --> 00:14:58,000 proof is in the pudding. He told President Obama he 251 00:14:58,000 --> 00:15:01,519 wouldn't militarize islands. He'd lied to us about the virus 252 00:15:01,519 --> 00:15:04,759 that came from his lab. Shishinping has a mission set. 253 00:15:05,360 --> 00:15:07,759 When he threatened us with respect to Taiwan, he was 254 00:15:07,919 --> 00:15:10,279 serious and we need to make sure where eyes wide open. 255 00:15:10,360 --> 00:15:13,919 I'm glad President Trump is certainly that. And President Trump 256 00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:16,799 has provided more weapons defensive weapons systems to Taiwan, I 257 00:15:16,799 --> 00:15:19,519 think than any previous administration, and I think they're continuing 258 00:15:19,559 --> 00:15:22,960 to do that. They've built out relationships with the Japanese government, 259 00:15:23,039 --> 00:15:25,000 the South Koreans that are ways that are going to 260 00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:29,159 deter Hushingping and China. Whatever Shishiping may have said. I'm 261 00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:31,720 confident President Trump to delivered a message that the United 262 00:15:31,720 --> 00:15:35,559 States understands how important Taiwan he is, not just to 263 00:15:35,679 --> 00:15:38,960 our geopolitical interests, but to our commercial interests as well. 264 00:15:38,960 --> 00:15:41,919 The ai fight largely takes place there, and President Trump 265 00:15:41,960 --> 00:15:44,799 is not going to permit Shushingping to do something that 266 00:15:44,799 --> 00:15:47,000 would jeopardize the American economy in that way. 267 00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:51,639 Speaker 2: So our President also said that she told him that 268 00:15:51,679 --> 00:15:57,399 they would not send weapons to Iran. So Mike Pompeo 269 00:15:57,799 --> 00:15:59,960 thinks they probably already are. 270 00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:02,759 Speaker 7: I think they likely already are. I think what she 271 00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:04,679 said there may well be true. At some level. We're 272 00:16:04,679 --> 00:16:06,679 not going to send weapons. They're not going to send 273 00:16:06,679 --> 00:16:10,559 tanks and airplanes, but massive pieces of the Iranian machine, 274 00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:12,879 the components, the things that go into their long range 275 00:16:12,919 --> 00:16:15,960 missile systems, the things that go into their radar systems, 276 00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:19,639 the tools, the components, those are Chinese components. I doubt 277 00:16:19,759 --> 00:16:22,320 seriously that Sheshiping will stop. That they have a deep 278 00:16:22,360 --> 00:16:25,559 and long relationship with the regime in Iran. It's useful 279 00:16:25,559 --> 00:16:28,360 to them because the Iranian regime makes life difficult for 280 00:16:28,399 --> 00:16:30,759 the United States. And while it is true that I 281 00:16:30,759 --> 00:16:32,480 think she would like to have the street open, I 282 00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:34,440 think that's true. He'd like to have that oil. He 283 00:16:34,480 --> 00:16:36,519 also wants to make sure that he doesn't lose his 284 00:16:36,559 --> 00:16:39,639 foothold in the Middle East, which is this regime in Iran. 285 00:16:39,799 --> 00:16:41,919 Speaker 2: Yeah, the foothold he's talking about is, of course all 286 00:16:41,919 --> 00:16:45,799 the other Arab countries that president she would like to 287 00:16:46,080 --> 00:16:47,519 have a warm relationship with. 288 00:16:47,840 --> 00:16:49,639 Speaker 1: So then to Iran and. 289 00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:54,440 Speaker 2: Their oil and the fact that they there's different stories 290 00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:58,639 from different people with different answers about the fact that 291 00:16:58,679 --> 00:17:03,919 what happens when and they can't unload any more oil 292 00:17:04,160 --> 00:17:08,039 they have to stop producing, do they what happens to 293 00:17:08,079 --> 00:17:11,000 the oil that once they stop producing in Iran? 294 00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:14,960 Speaker 7: And here's Pompeo's answered. You and I spoke about this 295 00:17:15,000 --> 00:17:18,119 when that blockade first began right. Eventually, you can only 296 00:17:18,119 --> 00:17:19,920 store so much oil on so many tanks and so 297 00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:23,960 many ships offshore. I doubt very many are significant amount 298 00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:26,279 of ships were actually loaded or offloaded out of carg Island. 299 00:17:26,319 --> 00:17:29,480 We would see that and know that in an instantaneous timeline. 300 00:17:30,079 --> 00:17:32,119 And so this will be a real problem for the regime. 301 00:17:32,160 --> 00:17:33,359 What is it they're going to do. They're going to 302 00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:35,960 have to shut in their fields. And we talked about 303 00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:38,759 the fact that these blockades are effective, but that they 304 00:17:38,799 --> 00:17:41,160 also take time. And I think what Secretary Besson said 305 00:17:41,160 --> 00:17:44,440 reflects exactly that we've been at this for several weeks now. 306 00:17:44,599 --> 00:17:47,759 Every day that goes on the economic hardship for this regime, 307 00:17:47,799 --> 00:17:50,720 their ability to pay their soldiers and their sailors gets 308 00:17:50,759 --> 00:17:53,880 more difficult. That blockade is effective and it is a 309 00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:57,720 useful tool to achieve America's objectives with respect to Iran. 310 00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:01,559 Speaker 2: Well, maybe we'll see everybody keep telling us that knows 311 00:18:01,559 --> 00:18:05,200 anything about Iran that they're have an uncanny ability to 312 00:18:05,319 --> 00:18:07,480 withstand a lot of pain because they don't care about 313 00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:11,240 their people. So far, it hasn't worked, but eventually you 314 00:18:11,279 --> 00:18:14,759 would think it would logically, but we're using logic in 315 00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:19,200 the regime in Tehran is not logical. So about this 316 00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:24,759 oil being shut in, here's our President Trump talking about it. 317 00:18:25,079 --> 00:18:25,839 Speaker 1: If they don't get. 318 00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:29,799 Speaker 6: Their oil moving, their whole oil infrastructure is going to explode. 319 00:18:30,079 --> 00:18:34,599 Speaker 8: When you have lines of vast amounts of oil pouring 320 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:37,759 through your system. If for any reason that line is 321 00:18:37,839 --> 00:18:42,000 closed because you can't continue to put it into containers 322 00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:44,680 or ships, which has happened to them. They have no 323 00:18:44,799 --> 00:18:48,119 ships because of the blockade, what happens is that line 324 00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:53,319 explodes from within, both mechanically and in the earth. You 325 00:18:53,319 --> 00:18:56,400 know they're oil when you turn off the oil underground 326 00:18:56,519 --> 00:19:01,480 and the mechanical too, but underground has a tendency in 327 00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:04,559 like almost one hundred percent of the cases to literally 328 00:19:04,759 --> 00:19:08,400 explode and just destroy everything around it and you can 329 00:19:08,519 --> 00:19:10,319 never get that oil again. 330 00:19:11,839 --> 00:19:15,720 Speaker 2: So one interesting part about all this United Arab Emirates UAE. 331 00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:21,200 They are the point on the opposite side from from 332 00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:25,559 Iran of the po the Strait of Hermos. They have 333 00:19:25,640 --> 00:19:30,200 a whole coastline that they have access to that they 334 00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:33,680 can get oil out there. Opening a new pipeline that 335 00:19:33,799 --> 00:19:36,680 will allow ships to not have to go through the 336 00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:40,640 Strait of Hormuz. So that new pipeline may solve a 337 00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:44,960 lot of these problems. But back to this exploding oil field. 338 00:19:46,039 --> 00:19:49,960 David Goldman, who's a financial guy, looked into this and 339 00:19:50,799 --> 00:19:52,240 he came up with a different answer. 340 00:19:52,319 --> 00:19:53,680 Speaker 9: Truth there, they'll believe it or not. 341 00:19:53,839 --> 00:20:00,000 Speaker 10: So when Iran started getting this blockade from the United States, 342 00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:03,759 they had nowhere to put their oil. So eventually they 343 00:20:03,759 --> 00:20:06,759 actually have to shut their oil wells off, and that's 344 00:20:06,839 --> 00:20:12,440 called shutting in, and it's actually a really complex engineering feed. 345 00:20:12,559 --> 00:20:16,039 There's a lot that can go wrong when this happens. 346 00:20:16,079 --> 00:20:19,839 You have imbalanced pressure, right, that's the whole thing that 347 00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:22,920 gets the oil out. If you don't have the right pressure, 348 00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:25,720 then some parts are higher, some parts are lower. 349 00:20:25,759 --> 00:20:27,240 Speaker 9: You might not be able to get your oil out. 350 00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:31,720 Speaker 10: But the danger here is when you have damage underground, 351 00:20:31,759 --> 00:20:37,839 which can happen and in very very rare examples, you 352 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:42,599 can have if you have bad seals, you can have explosions. 353 00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:45,920 Speaker 9: But Aroan knows how to deal with this. 354 00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:50,279 Speaker 10: They deal with shut ins all the time, and the 355 00:20:50,319 --> 00:20:53,799 Middle East has been shutting in oil during COVID and 356 00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:57,200 when OPEC says you're producing too much, hang on a second. 357 00:20:57,559 --> 00:20:59,319 Speaker 9: They know how to deal with this. 358 00:20:59,519 --> 00:21:03,680 Speaker 10: Don't don't expect your run's oil infrastructure to just go 359 00:21:03,759 --> 00:21:04,400 boom anytime. 360 00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:08,200 Speaker 2: Well, he's talking about shutting in wells, and it's true. 361 00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:11,640 I mean they have every time the price gets below 362 00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:16,559 a certain number, usually down below fifty dollars. Remember that, Well, 363 00:21:16,839 --> 00:21:19,960 we did back back a long time ago. We had 364 00:21:20,519 --> 00:21:23,920 oil going down so low that a lot of the 365 00:21:24,039 --> 00:21:28,079 US producers, especially in Texas, had to shut in their wells. 366 00:21:28,759 --> 00:21:32,759 And I don't remember any stories about oil exploding, but 367 00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:35,599 it sounds like it is complicated. I'm not an oil 368 00:21:36,079 --> 00:21:40,680 expert or oil drilling expert, but there's different stories about 369 00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:45,240 what will happen. And fine, let them shut them in 370 00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:48,839 whether it explodes or doesn't explode. That means they don't 371 00:21:48,839 --> 00:21:51,920 get any money for the oil in their country. So 372 00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:55,000 since we're talking about Iran now, the question has come 373 00:21:55,079 --> 00:21:58,680 up about the fact that, again the President has talked 374 00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:01,200 about they don't have a navy, they don't have an 375 00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:03,000 air force, they don't have this, they don't have that. 376 00:22:03,759 --> 00:22:07,119 But the problem is they keep striking different places in 377 00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:11,759 an Admiral Cooper, the head of Sentcom, was hauled before 378 00:22:11,839 --> 00:22:17,240 Congress and was asked, is it possible for Iran to 379 00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:22,079 still have some military muscle. Can they strike at our 380 00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:25,519 ships or at any ships going through the Persian Gulf? 381 00:22:26,039 --> 00:22:31,759 Speaker 4: Can they strike oil infrastructure across the Persian Gulf? 382 00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:35,839 Speaker 11: They have a very moderate, if not small, capability to 383 00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:40,400 continue strikes, and we of course have accordingly prepared for 384 00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:41,279 such a contingency. 385 00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:45,519 Speaker 2: Okay, so they do have a moderate ability to continue 386 00:22:45,559 --> 00:22:49,000 to do strikes, and Admiral Cooper says we know how 387 00:22:49,039 --> 00:22:55,160 to handle it all right. Colonel Laighton, who has also 388 00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:57,200 a response about can they still strike? 389 00:22:57,319 --> 00:23:00,440 Speaker 12: I think the adderall was a bit imprecise in his 390 00:23:00,599 --> 00:23:05,440 description of things, because this moderate to minimal capability that 391 00:23:05,559 --> 00:23:10,200 Iran supposedly has is still a significant capability, and I 392 00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:13,559 think it's probably more than what he said and is 393 00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:17,400 said hearing today. I think basically what you're looking at 394 00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:21,720 is the capability that they can strike infrastructure targets within 395 00:23:21,759 --> 00:23:25,680 the Gulf, and they can do so and do great damage. 396 00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:28,960 So that is, you know, what we're looking at. And 397 00:23:29,079 --> 00:23:31,079 when I think of, you know, the way in which 398 00:23:31,079 --> 00:23:34,559 the Iranians have arrayed their forces, I think it's pretty 399 00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:38,279 clear that they still have a capability that I will 400 00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:42,759 potentially cause some more economic damage to the air of 401 00:23:42,759 --> 00:23:46,880 Golf States. So that is an area where the US 402 00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:50,480 has to step up and defend those allies if it 403 00:23:50,519 --> 00:23:52,839 wants to maintain a foothold in them at least. 404 00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:55,400 Speaker 2: All Right, so he says, they still can do a 405 00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:58,799 lot of damage. Let's turn to the CIA guy and 406 00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:01,279 find out what he Here's Dan Hoffman. 407 00:24:02,319 --> 00:24:05,640 Speaker 11: Well, I think, first and foremost, the IRGC cares a 408 00:24:05,680 --> 00:24:08,240 lot about the fact that Iran can't ship their oil 409 00:24:08,279 --> 00:24:12,200 and that they're reaching maximum capacity at their export terminals. 410 00:24:12,799 --> 00:24:17,079 That denies Iran the funds that they need to carry 411 00:24:17,119 --> 00:24:22,599 on their military aggression overseas to pay the IRGC and 412 00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:26,720 their besieged paramilitary force to suppress the population. I think 413 00:24:26,759 --> 00:24:29,880 the key question for our intelligence community, and I can 414 00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:33,000 tell you this from my own experience at CIA, for 415 00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:37,119 Director Ratcliffe at CIA, is how does Iran see this 416 00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:42,240 challenge for them that they can't export their oil? How 417 00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:46,119 does the IRGC leadership General Vahiti, for example, Does this 418 00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:48,480 mean that the United States has the leverage that we 419 00:24:48,559 --> 00:24:51,759 need to force Iran to negotiate in good faith? Those 420 00:24:51,799 --> 00:24:55,079 are some of the questions I think that President Trump 421 00:24:55,079 --> 00:24:57,000 will be asking the intelligence community. 422 00:24:57,759 --> 00:25:01,279 Speaker 2: So, in other words, yeah, they still have of arms, 423 00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:03,799 and I would suspect that they are getting him from 424 00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:07,079 Russia maybe China, but they're not out of arms, and 425 00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:09,839 they can still do damage. And that's why it's still 426 00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:13,359 very precarious for ships to go sailing through the port 427 00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:18,160 of the straight to port moves. Meantime, when a top money, 428 00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:23,519 we've got interest rates going up, and we've got oil 429 00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:28,559 prices going up, and we've got inflation going up. But 430 00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:33,160 Scott Bessant is I think a smart guy, and I 431 00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:40,839 think he is just trying to sell hope. But I 432 00:25:40,839 --> 00:25:43,559 don't think he really thinks that things are going to 433 00:25:43,559 --> 00:25:46,559 get better real quick. But I think he kind of 434 00:25:46,599 --> 00:25:48,839 stretches it out a little bit and says down the 435 00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:51,720 road things will get better. Well, of course eventually. I 436 00:25:51,759 --> 00:25:54,680 also think he's singing from the Republican song sheet. There's 437 00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:57,720 a whole bunch of Republicans and they're all saying the 438 00:25:57,759 --> 00:25:59,759 same thing. Let's start with Scott Bessant. 439 00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:04,200 Speaker 13: I think core implation will continue coming down. We'll get 440 00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:06,200 to the other side of this, and I don't know 441 00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:08,160 whether it's a few days or a few weeks, if 442 00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:13,200 we may get a series one two more hot inflation numbers, 443 00:26:13,240 --> 00:26:15,720 but then I think we're going to see substantial disinflation. 444 00:26:16,519 --> 00:26:18,519 Speaker 3: Look, this is not going to last forever, and gas 445 00:26:18,519 --> 00:26:20,000 prices are going to go back down. 446 00:26:20,160 --> 00:26:22,319 Speaker 9: So I think by you call it labor Day, it's 447 00:26:22,319 --> 00:26:23,359 all in the review mirror. 448 00:26:23,599 --> 00:26:26,079 Speaker 14: So the fact of the matter is everybody relaxed, few 449 00:26:26,079 --> 00:26:26,920 prices will go down. 450 00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:28,599 Speaker 9: Iran is going to end very very soon. 451 00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:31,400 Speaker 2: The problem with that message is that they've been saying 452 00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:35,119 that now for quite some time, since February twenty eighth, 453 00:26:35,559 --> 00:26:38,000 so all through March they were saying it. All through 454 00:26:38,079 --> 00:26:40,839 April they were saying it. Now we're half through May 455 00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:44,119 and they're still saying it. They need a new song sheet. 456 00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:49,119 I mean, yes, eventually this will end, and eventually prices 457 00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:52,240 will come down. And I don't believe they're dropping like 458 00:26:52,279 --> 00:26:56,480 a rock, not now, not anytime soon. They will eventually 459 00:26:56,720 --> 00:27:01,039 gradually come back down. The real awkward spot is the 460 00:27:01,079 --> 00:27:04,880 brand new asse of yesterday, new Chairman of the Federal 461 00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:09,079 Reserve Board, Kevin Warsh, and the President wants him to 462 00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:12,440 drop interest rates, and I don't think there's any way 463 00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:15,119 possible that he's going to be able to drop interest 464 00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:22,440 rates with inflation increasing. Core Inflation headline inflation, interest rates increasing. 465 00:27:22,519 --> 00:27:25,799 In fact, today the thirty year Treasury went up to 466 00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:29,319 the highest level we've seen as far as interest rates 467 00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:33,119 go since two thousand and nine during the Great Recession. So, 468 00:27:33,279 --> 00:27:36,880 I mean interest rates are up, inflation is up, oil 469 00:27:37,039 --> 00:27:40,200 is up, gas is up. I don't see any way 470 00:27:40,319 --> 00:27:44,039 they can cut interest rates well any time soon. And 471 00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:46,880 Scott Pessen kind of hedged it a little bit by 472 00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:50,960 saying maybe one or two more hot inflation reports. Well, 473 00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:53,559 that would be the one that comes out in June 474 00:27:53,640 --> 00:27:57,359 and the one that comes out in July. So he's 475 00:27:57,400 --> 00:28:01,160 not looking for anything real. So but the other side 476 00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:04,000 of this coin, and we got a little bit of 477 00:28:04,039 --> 00:28:08,359 this yesterday about the fact that the cave shaped economy, 478 00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:12,359 the wealthy are doing fine and they're spending fine. But 479 00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:15,480 it's more than that. Triple A is already out talking 480 00:28:15,519 --> 00:28:20,880 about a week from now about Memorial Day traffic, and 481 00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:25,880 they're talking about forty six million people plan on getting 482 00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:29,000 in their cars and driving more than fifty miles in 483 00:28:29,079 --> 00:28:33,440 their automobiles for a Memorial Day weekend. Well, if gas 484 00:28:33,519 --> 00:28:36,880 is so high, then how come all those people are 485 00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:38,880 getting in their cars. You would think that number would 486 00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:40,039 drop like a rock. 487 00:28:40,160 --> 00:28:40,759 Speaker 1: But it's not. 488 00:28:42,079 --> 00:28:47,279 Speaker 2: So we haven't reached what the term in economics world 489 00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:52,799 is demand destruction. It hasn't reached the point where people 490 00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:55,839 have thrown in the talent and said that's it. We're 491 00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:59,440 not going anywhere for Memorial Day weekend, or you're taking 492 00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:03,079 the bus instead of driving to work, or go down 493 00:29:03,119 --> 00:29:07,200 the list of how far are you cutting back? So far, 494 00:29:07,319 --> 00:29:10,599 we haven't seen it. Now, yesterday we had retail sales, 495 00:29:10,599 --> 00:29:14,319 and like I told you, there are things that are down. 496 00:29:14,839 --> 00:29:17,440 Car sales are down, furniture sales down, the number of 497 00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:23,119 things that are down. But gasoline sales were up. But 498 00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:26,480 it's not because people are buying more gasoline. It's because 499 00:29:26,519 --> 00:29:30,000 the price of gasoline is up. So therefore when they 500 00:29:30,079 --> 00:29:33,440 ring up the cash register, it looks like sales are up, 501 00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:36,519 but it's really the price of the product that they 502 00:29:36,519 --> 00:29:39,200 are selling has actually pushed things higher. 503 00:29:40,039 --> 00:29:41,240 Speaker 1: All right, So. 504 00:29:41,599 --> 00:29:44,839 Speaker 2: Besson says, everything's inflation is going to be coming down. 505 00:29:45,240 --> 00:29:48,880 Jim Bianco is the head of a big research firm 506 00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:53,759 on Wall Street, and he was asked about the financial future. 507 00:29:54,359 --> 00:29:56,720 Speaker 14: I think it's getting harder to make that case. I mean, 508 00:29:56,799 --> 00:29:59,279 if he's right and there's a one two punch, and 509 00:29:59,319 --> 00:30:01,440 I assume what means is the strait of our moose 510 00:30:01,559 --> 00:30:04,960 is open, and shipping starts moving. And I've been hearing 511 00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:07,599 this for ten weeks. We're just on the other side. 512 00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:09,200 Just a few days, a couple of weeks from this 513 00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:12,240 straight opening. Then we can start making the case how 514 00:30:12,279 --> 00:30:15,720 fast things will normalize. But right now they're not normal. 515 00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:18,559 And the longer we go without them being normal, the 516 00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:21,880 harder it is going to be to fix the supply problem. 517 00:30:22,039 --> 00:30:24,759 You mentioned, inflation is the highest in three years. Three 518 00:30:24,839 --> 00:30:28,480 years ago, it was another supply problem around COVID and 519 00:30:28,559 --> 00:30:31,359 around the supply chain. We all remember counting the number 520 00:30:31,359 --> 00:30:33,880 of ships waiting to get into Los Angeles Harbor and 521 00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:36,880 then produce nine percent inflation. I don't think we're gonna 522 00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:39,200 get that kind of inflation this go around, at least 523 00:30:39,279 --> 00:30:41,880 not yet. I don't think that. But the fact of 524 00:30:41,880 --> 00:30:44,079 the matter is the supply chain. Things tend to be 525 00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:46,680 a lot more complicated than everybody makes them out to be. 526 00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:50,279 Speaker 2: Yeah, so they're back to talking about the supply chain 527 00:30:50,759 --> 00:30:54,079 and whether or not we're going to have interruptions. 528 00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:56,119 Speaker 1: As soon as this war is over, which will not 529 00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:56,759 be long. 530 00:30:57,119 --> 00:31:01,480 Speaker 6: You're gonna see oil prices drop, You're gonna see gasoline 531 00:31:01,559 --> 00:31:05,359 and oil drop like a rock. Guess will fall down 532 00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:07,440 at levels that you've never seen before. 533 00:31:07,519 --> 00:31:09,440 Speaker 1: You'll be down to where you were maybe even. 534 00:31:09,279 --> 00:31:13,759 Speaker 2: Well, Well, the president is, like I've talked about before, 535 00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:18,640 number one, he's waiving the flag. But mister positivity, the 536 00:31:18,680 --> 00:31:21,400 other side is he also kind of lives in the 537 00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:24,160 dream world of what he aspires to. But back to 538 00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:25,839 Jim Bianco on all of this. 539 00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:29,079 Speaker 14: Yeah, you know, when we talk about the price of oil, 540 00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:31,319 everybody says, what's the price of oil? But you have 541 00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:34,119 to be a little bit nuanced. When do you want 542 00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:36,400 it and where do you want it. Well, the chart 543 00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:38,920 we're looking at is when a year from now the 544 00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:42,279 price is eighty two dollars, the price was under sixty 545 00:31:42,319 --> 00:31:45,440 bucks before the war started. The market is pricing in 546 00:31:45,799 --> 00:31:48,359 that the price of oil will stay something like thirty 547 00:31:48,400 --> 00:31:51,680 percent higher than it was the beginning the war one 548 00:31:51,759 --> 00:31:55,279 year from today. So it's not believing that the price 549 00:31:55,359 --> 00:31:58,400 is going to turn around and come back down. Part 550 00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:00,880 of the reason I think is even if the war 551 00:32:01,160 --> 00:32:03,720 was to be resolved in the next couple of days 552 00:32:03,759 --> 00:32:06,400 and things were to start to normalize, there's probably gonna 553 00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:08,640 be an embedded premium in the price of wild There's 554 00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:11,079 going to be a war risk that's going to continue 555 00:32:11,079 --> 00:32:14,000 to stick around for a lot longer. So that is 556 00:32:14,039 --> 00:32:16,000 really what we're trying to fight against, and that's what 557 00:32:16,039 --> 00:32:18,880 the market is telling us. That the price might come 558 00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:21,160 down from one hundred dollars to eighty, but it's not 559 00:32:21,279 --> 00:32:23,640 going back to sixty or fifty five, which is where 560 00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:26,559 it was, say, back in January before all of this began. 561 00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:29,839 Speaker 2: I don't know if you remember or not. Jared Bernstein. 562 00:32:30,240 --> 00:32:32,440 Jared's been around for a long time. He's an economist, 563 00:32:32,759 --> 00:32:38,480 he's a lefty. He talks for and supports Democrats Democratic candidates. 564 00:32:38,519 --> 00:32:42,200 He was part of the Biden administration's economic team, and 565 00:32:42,279 --> 00:32:44,680 so as a result, they rolled him out in front 566 00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:47,079 of the White House to talk to the media and 567 00:32:47,119 --> 00:32:51,400 he kept telling everybody that don't worry, everything's fine, the 568 00:32:51,519 --> 00:32:56,640 economy's doing great. And listen to him because now he's 569 00:32:56,880 --> 00:33:01,119 listening to the Republicans talking about don't worry, hurry, everything's fine, 570 00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:04,480 the economy is doing great. And he said, you gotta 571 00:33:04,519 --> 00:33:09,400 be careful about what you say, because well he's kind 572 00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:11,240 of eating his own hat. 573 00:33:11,279 --> 00:33:11,480 Speaker 14: You know. 574 00:33:12,039 --> 00:33:16,039 Speaker 15: You set this up correctly when you said I've been there. 575 00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:19,160 I wish I could tell those folks stop trying to 576 00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:22,160 talk past the American people. I've tried, and it doesn't work. 577 00:33:23,279 --> 00:33:26,359 The fact is the reason I liked your best in quote. 578 00:33:26,799 --> 00:33:29,119 It's a little bit of inside baseball. But he really 579 00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:33,319 lost the public when he mentioned core inflation. He said, 580 00:33:33,400 --> 00:33:36,119 core inflation's coming now. Well, first of all, core inflation's 581 00:33:36,200 --> 00:33:39,160 not coming down. It's been high and sticky. Core inflation 582 00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:43,359 leaves out gas and food. Okay, so try telling the 583 00:33:43,400 --> 00:33:46,160 American people, hey, we're fine except for the prices of 584 00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:49,400 gas and food. And by the way, food pressures are 585 00:33:49,559 --> 00:33:53,000 equally in the mix. Right now that grocery prices are 586 00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:56,079 going up again. Same thing with the other clips. You 587 00:33:56,160 --> 00:33:58,839 played the idea that you can tell people, hey, don't 588 00:33:58,839 --> 00:34:01,799 worry affordability. It's a hoax, or it's going away, or 589 00:34:01,799 --> 00:34:04,799 it'll be fine in a couple of weeks. People know 590 00:34:04,839 --> 00:34:07,240 which way is up when it comes to prices. And 591 00:34:08,159 --> 00:34:11,719 if kind of a communications track record of the last 592 00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:14,480 few years has taught us anything, it's don't try to 593 00:34:14,519 --> 00:34:16,360 tell people they're better off than they think they are. 594 00:34:16,519 --> 00:34:19,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, he admitted that's what he did. Basically, these economic 595 00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:23,199 advisors at the White House, they have to sing off 596 00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:26,400 of the song sheet of their boss, the President. So 597 00:34:26,559 --> 00:34:28,920 when Jared was at the White House, he was singing 598 00:34:29,039 --> 00:34:32,599 what Joe Biden wanted him to say. And now Scott 599 00:34:32,599 --> 00:34:35,480 Besson is saying whatever Donald Trump wants him to say. 600 00:34:35,880 --> 00:34:38,079 So make your own mind up on it. But I 601 00:34:38,159 --> 00:34:42,800 think you can, like Jared said, you know, if prices 602 00:34:42,840 --> 00:34:46,039 are going up, you don't need some economists standing on 603 00:34:46,199 --> 00:34:48,000 the front White House low to tell you where the 604 00:34:48,079 --> 00:34:52,039 prices are up or down. That's we're talking about prices. 605 00:34:52,119 --> 00:34:54,639 Let's check and see what the prices were on Wall 606 00:34:54,639 --> 00:34:59,079 Street today. Because there's a lot of disappointment. Nothing really 607 00:34:59,320 --> 00:35:03,719 came out of the big, big meeting in Beijing. Some 608 00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:09,079 vague comments about stability and don't mess with the Taiwan 609 00:35:09,559 --> 00:35:12,440 and we're not saying a thing about whether we're going 610 00:35:12,480 --> 00:35:14,840 to help regarding Iran or none of that. 611 00:35:14,880 --> 00:35:15,159 Speaker 1: There was. 612 00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:18,360 Speaker 2: There was nothing. Boeing got a two hundred plain order 613 00:35:18,360 --> 00:35:22,159 they were expecting five hundred. So Wall Street Today took 614 00:35:22,199 --> 00:35:25,079 all that and said, guess what, it's the weekend. We're 615 00:35:25,079 --> 00:35:30,039 going to sell off the dow down five hundred thirty seven, 616 00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:33,800 the Dow at forty nine thousand and five twenty six, 617 00:35:34,119 --> 00:35:38,800 the SMP down ninety two ouch, the Nasdaq down four 618 00:35:38,920 --> 00:35:42,679 hundred ten, the price of gold another ouch, down one 619 00:35:42,760 --> 00:35:46,239 hundred thirty three dollars now at four thousand and five 620 00:35:46,239 --> 00:35:51,639 point fifty one, and oil another ouch, up almost five 621 00:35:51,719 --> 00:35:56,360 dollars today for West Texas Intermediate is just under one 622 00:35:56,440 --> 00:36:01,000 hundred six dollars for a barrel of oil. That's it 623 00:36:01,079 --> 00:36:04,679 for today. Have yourself a wonderful weekend. We'll be back 624 00:36:04,719 --> 00:36:06,480 on Monday, and I hope to see you there