1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:03,600 Speaker 1: Welcome to thrilling threads, where we pull on the most fascinating, 2 00:00:03,720 --> 00:00:07,719 complex and sometimes controversial strings of science and history to 3 00:00:07,719 --> 00:00:08,560 see where they lead. 4 00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:11,039 Speaker 2: And today we're pulling on a big one, a. 5 00:00:11,160 --> 00:00:14,199 Speaker 1: Really big one. It's a thread that's woven directly into 6 00:00:14,240 --> 00:00:17,760 the fabric of human space exploration. And it suggests that 7 00:00:17,879 --> 00:00:22,359 our greatest leap, maybe our single greatest achievement, was entirely 8 00:00:22,519 --> 00:00:23,199 a lie, and. 9 00:00:23,320 --> 00:00:26,559 Speaker 2: That lie, that conspiracy. It all revolves around an invisible, 10 00:00:26,920 --> 00:00:31,960 truly deadly fact of space physics, the Van Allen radiation belts. 11 00:00:32,079 --> 00:00:34,920 Speaker 1: Right. The central idea, what some people call this invisible 12 00:00:34,960 --> 00:00:37,840 iron curtain, is that these belts are so packed with 13 00:00:37,960 --> 00:00:41,439 lethal radiation that no human could possibly pass through them 14 00:00:41,479 --> 00:00:42,840 and live, which. 15 00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:45,920 Speaker 2: If true, would mean that all human travel beyond low 16 00:00:45,920 --> 00:00:48,880 Earth orbit, and you know, specifically the Apollo Moon missions 17 00:00:49,320 --> 00:00:50,320 they must have been faked. 18 00:00:50,439 --> 00:00:52,880 Speaker 1: It's an incredibly powerful idea, and I get why it 19 00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:55,119 STIPs because the science is hostile. I mean, the Van 20 00:00:55,159 --> 00:00:57,320 Allen Belts sound like something straight out of a sci 21 00:00:57,359 --> 00:00:58,119 fi horror movie. 22 00:00:58,159 --> 00:01:01,000 Speaker 2: Absolutely, if you just read the raw numbers, the energy 23 00:01:01,039 --> 00:01:03,200 levels of the particles trapped up there, it sounds like 24 00:01:03,439 --> 00:01:05,400 an impenetrable shield that Earth has. 25 00:01:05,760 --> 00:01:09,400 Speaker 1: So today our mission is really specific. We want to 26 00:01:09,519 --> 00:01:13,000 use the hard science, the engineering solutions that are actually 27 00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:17,079 deployed back then, and critically the data that's validating them 28 00:01:17,159 --> 00:01:18,959 right now to answer that claim. 29 00:01:19,200 --> 00:01:21,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, and for this deep dive, we've got a whole 30 00:01:21,159 --> 00:01:24,439 collection of sources. We're looking at historical reports from the 31 00:01:24,439 --> 00:01:28,159 physicists who actually discovered the belts, James Van Allen himself. 32 00:01:28,359 --> 00:01:31,760 Speaker 1: We've also got modern radiation analyses from researchers like Murky, 33 00:01:32,159 --> 00:01:33,640 Wilson and Rizzo. 34 00:01:33,560 --> 00:01:36,799 Speaker 2: And maybe most importantly, we have the detailed mission data 35 00:01:37,120 --> 00:01:40,879 from the recent uncrude Artemis flight. It's the modern day proof. 36 00:01:41,159 --> 00:01:43,200 Speaker 1: So the goal is to break down the physics of 37 00:01:43,239 --> 00:01:47,359 the radiation, really investigate the Apollo trajectory strategy, which is 38 00:01:47,480 --> 00:01:52,480 fascinating stuff, and analyze the actual radiation doses the astronaut Scott, and. 39 00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:54,480 Speaker 2: Then we'll show how modern missions are building on that 40 00:01:54,599 --> 00:01:57,680 exact same foundation. We're basically going to use NASA's own 41 00:01:57,760 --> 00:02:01,000 data from the sixties and today to mamfle that core 42 00:02:01,120 --> 00:02:02,480 argument of impossibility. 43 00:02:02,640 --> 00:02:05,359 Speaker 1: This is a story about managing risk at the absolute edge. 44 00:02:05,400 --> 00:02:08,159 It's not about arguing whether the belts are dangerous. They are, 45 00:02:08,360 --> 00:02:10,960 it's about whether they're an impossibility. 46 00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:11,439 Speaker 2: A very important distinction. 47 00:02:11,719 --> 00:02:14,479 Speaker 1: So let's start by defining the threat. What exactly are 48 00:02:14,520 --> 00:02:15,240 we flying through? 49 00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:18,319 Speaker 2: Okay, let's set the scene when we talk about the 50 00:02:18,400 --> 00:02:21,960 Van Allen Radiation Belts or the VAB, which you need 51 00:02:22,000 --> 00:02:27,080 to picture are two. Well, they're like these massive doughnut 52 00:02:27,159 --> 00:02:30,080 shaped regions of charged particles. 53 00:02:29,879 --> 00:02:30,960 Speaker 1: And they're just floating there. 54 00:02:31,080 --> 00:02:34,319 Speaker 2: Not floating, they're trapped. They're held in place by Earth's 55 00:02:34,439 --> 00:02:38,039 powerful magnetic field. They're basically a side effect of the 56 00:02:38,159 --> 00:02:42,039 very thing that protects us. Our magnetic field deflects and 57 00:02:42,080 --> 00:02:44,520 catches all these high energy particles coming from the Sun 58 00:02:44,599 --> 00:02:45,520 and from deep space. 59 00:02:45,879 --> 00:02:47,960 Speaker 1: And these belts are positioned right above where we do 60 00:02:48,039 --> 00:02:50,439 most of our current space stuff, like the International Space 61 00:02:50,479 --> 00:02:51,479 Station exactly. 62 00:02:51,599 --> 00:02:54,280 Speaker 2: The ISS is safe. It's in what we call low 63 00:02:54,360 --> 00:02:57,400 Earth orbit or l e O, and that's generally below 64 00:02:57,840 --> 00:02:59,560 the really intense parts of the belts. 65 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:01,879 Speaker 1: So where does the real danger start? 66 00:03:02,039 --> 00:03:03,560 Speaker 2: The inner belt, that's the one you really have to 67 00:03:03,560 --> 00:03:07,879 worry about. It starts roughly around a thousand kilometers up 68 00:03:07,919 --> 00:03:10,919 and can stretch out to maybe twelve thousand kilometers. It's 69 00:03:10,919 --> 00:03:13,919 where the particles are most concentrated and most energetic, and 70 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:16,599 the outer belt, the outer belt is much larger, it's 71 00:03:16,639 --> 00:03:19,800 more spread out, and it changes a lot more. It's 72 00:03:19,800 --> 00:03:21,360 also made of slightly different stuff. 73 00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:24,319 Speaker 1: And that stuff, that material is really the whole point. 74 00:03:24,800 --> 00:03:27,479 It's not gas as we know it. It's these highly 75 00:03:27,599 --> 00:03:30,039 energized charged particles, right, that's the danger. 76 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:33,960 Speaker 2: App The inner belt is just swarming with high energy protons, 77 00:03:34,080 --> 00:03:37,280 basically the nucleus of a hydrogen atom. And because protons 78 00:03:37,280 --> 00:03:40,800 are relatively heavy, they carry enormous energy. They're very, very penetrating. 79 00:03:40,879 --> 00:03:43,919 And the outer belt, the outer belt, is mostly electrons, 80 00:03:44,080 --> 00:03:47,840 along with a mix of heavier particles like helium nuclei, 81 00:03:47,919 --> 00:03:50,719 which you might know is alpha particles. And these things 82 00:03:50,759 --> 00:03:54,560 aren't just sitting there. They're constantly bouncing between the magnetic poles, drifting, 83 00:03:55,000 --> 00:03:59,599 creating this incredibly complex and yeah, hostile environment. 84 00:03:59,680 --> 00:04:02,000 Speaker 1: Okay, so this is where the conspiracy theory really gets 85 00:04:02,039 --> 00:04:07,439 its fuel. People here correctly that the VAB contains plasma, 86 00:04:07,479 --> 00:04:11,039 the superheated ionized gas, and they hear that the temperature 87 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:13,479 can reach what thousands of degrees it can? 88 00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:15,719 Speaker 2: Yeah, we're talking anywhere from two thousand kelvin up to 89 00:04:15,759 --> 00:04:17,000 twenty thousand kelvin. 90 00:04:16,759 --> 00:04:20,160 Speaker 1: Which sounds hot enough to just melt the spacecraft instantly 91 00:04:20,759 --> 00:04:23,240 or flash fry an astronaut. Why doesn't that happen? 92 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:27,160 Speaker 2: This is maybe the single most important misunderstanding. It's a 93 00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:30,959 perfect example of scientific detail getting taken completely out of context. 94 00:04:32,000 --> 00:04:34,399 You have to understand the difference between temperature and heat. 95 00:04:34,480 --> 00:04:35,399 Speaker 1: Okay, break that down. 96 00:04:35,439 --> 00:04:38,279 Speaker 2: Temperature in this context is just a measure of how 97 00:04:38,319 --> 00:04:42,040 fast the individual particles are moving their kinetic energy. And yes, 98 00:04:42,079 --> 00:04:45,720 they're moving incredibly fast, so individually you could say they're hot. 99 00:04:46,279 --> 00:04:48,560 But they exist in an almost perfect. 100 00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:51,160 Speaker 1: Vacuum, so there just aren't enough of them close together 101 00:04:51,279 --> 00:04:53,639 to actually transfer that heat exactly. 102 00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:57,120 Speaker 2: The density is unbelievably low. I love the analogies for this. 103 00:04:57,639 --> 00:04:59,959 Think about a hot oven. You can stick your hand 104 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:02,079 at a four hundred degree oven for a few seconds, right, 105 00:05:02,759 --> 00:05:05,079 The air is hot, but it's not dense, so the 106 00:05:05,199 --> 00:05:08,639 energy transfer is slow. You don't get burned immediately. 107 00:05:08,160 --> 00:05:10,439 Speaker 1: But if you touch the metal rack inside that. 108 00:05:10,399 --> 00:05:13,519 Speaker 2: Oven, you're instantly burned because the solid metal is dense 109 00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:16,800 and it transfers that heat energy very very quickly. The 110 00:05:16,879 --> 00:05:18,639 Van Allen Belts are like the air in that oven, 111 00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:21,160 but I mean millions of times less dense. 112 00:05:21,439 --> 00:05:23,759 Speaker 1: So the total mass of all those super fast hot 113 00:05:23,800 --> 00:05:25,680 particles is actually tiny. 114 00:05:25,920 --> 00:05:28,560 Speaker 2: It's negligible. That's an understatement. Yeah, I mean, if you 115 00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:32,680 could somehow collect every single high energy particle in both belts, 116 00:05:33,120 --> 00:05:36,720 the total mass would be incredibly small. The danger isn't 117 00:05:36,759 --> 00:05:38,000 your spacecraft melting. 118 00:05:38,319 --> 00:05:40,000 Speaker 1: Danger is the radiation dose. 119 00:05:40,160 --> 00:05:42,879 Speaker 2: It's a cumulative effect. Think of it as being sand 120 00:05:42,920 --> 00:05:47,000 blasted by microscopic bullets. Each one is tiny, but over 121 00:05:47,040 --> 00:05:49,959 time they do serious damage to electronics and to the 122 00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:53,800 human body. It's a dose accumulation problem, not a thermal problem. 123 00:05:53,879 --> 00:05:56,360 Speaker 1: Got it. Okay, that makes sense, So let's talk about 124 00:05:56,399 --> 00:05:59,319 shielding from that dose. If we're dealing with charged particles 125 00:05:59,360 --> 00:06:02,800 protons and all electrons, how hard is it to block them? 126 00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:05,279 Speaker 2: Well, Compared to other kinds of space radiation like gamma 127 00:06:05,319 --> 00:06:09,240 rays or neutrons, charge particles are actually a bit easier 128 00:06:09,240 --> 00:06:11,639 to stop. Why is that Because they have a charge. 129 00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:14,959 When they hit a solid material like the aluminum hull 130 00:06:15,000 --> 00:06:17,879 of a spacecraft, they interact with the atoms in that 131 00:06:18,000 --> 00:06:21,639 barrier and they slow down pretty quickly. For lower energy particles, 132 00:06:21,879 --> 00:06:24,920 simple things work. I mean, a sheet of paper can 133 00:06:24,920 --> 00:06:27,839 stop an alpha particle, a thin sheet of metal stops 134 00:06:27,839 --> 00:06:29,759 a beta particle, an electron. 135 00:06:30,040 --> 00:06:33,199 Speaker 1: But the protons in the inner bell they're not low energy. 136 00:06:33,439 --> 00:06:34,399 They're the big problem. 137 00:06:34,519 --> 00:06:37,519 Speaker 2: They're the big problem. They're extremely high energy. And that's 138 00:06:37,560 --> 00:06:41,680 the challenge. You need enough physical mass in the way, 139 00:06:41,800 --> 00:06:45,480 thick layers of aluminum or other materials to slow them 140 00:06:45,519 --> 00:06:47,279 down and stop them before they get through. 141 00:06:47,240 --> 00:06:49,079 Speaker 1: Before they get into the astronaut's body. 142 00:06:49,240 --> 00:06:51,319 Speaker 2: Right, you want the particle to run out of steam 143 00:06:51,439 --> 00:06:54,920 inside the shield, not inside the astronaut's bone marrow. So 144 00:06:55,000 --> 00:06:58,000 for Apollo, the engineers had to do this incredible calculation, 145 00:06:58,120 --> 00:07:01,000 this trade off how much shielding can we possibly afford 146 00:07:01,120 --> 00:07:03,920 to launch versus how fast can we get through the 147 00:07:03,959 --> 00:07:04,680 danger zones? 148 00:07:04,879 --> 00:07:08,519 Speaker 1: So the barrier is real, but it's an equation. It's time, speed, 149 00:07:08,600 --> 00:07:11,920 and mass. It's not an impossible wall, which brings us 150 00:07:11,959 --> 00:07:16,120 directly to Apollo. How on Earth did a spacecraft from 151 00:07:16,120 --> 00:07:20,480 the nineteen sixties with pretty basic shielding by today's standards 152 00:07:20,560 --> 00:07:21,560 solve that equation. 153 00:07:21,959 --> 00:07:24,360 Speaker 2: This is where the just the brilliance of the Apollo 154 00:07:24,360 --> 00:07:27,800 mission planners comes in. They weren't flying in blind doctor 155 00:07:27,879 --> 00:07:30,839 Van Allen had discovered these belts in nineteen fifty eight. 156 00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:32,279 They knew what they were flying into. 157 00:07:32,279 --> 00:07:33,839 Speaker 1: So they didn't just build a thicker ship. 158 00:07:33,879 --> 00:07:36,439 Speaker 2: We couldn't The launch rockets couldn't handle the weight. So 159 00:07:36,480 --> 00:07:39,680 instead of building a lid bunker, they used what researchers 160 00:07:39,720 --> 00:07:42,120 like Murky call elegant trajectory tuning. 161 00:07:42,199 --> 00:07:44,519 Speaker 1: They flew smarter, not harder. 162 00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:47,560 Speaker 2: A perfect way to put it. They use a very specific, 163 00:07:47,879 --> 00:07:51,680 very complex flight path designed to minimize their time and 164 00:07:51,759 --> 00:07:54,279 the worst parts of the belts. They knew the belts 165 00:07:54,319 --> 00:07:57,199 were donut shaped, thickest around the equator, so they went 166 00:07:57,240 --> 00:07:59,560 over the top in a way. Yeah, they planned their 167 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:02,240 trajectory to pass through the belts as far from the 168 00:08:02,279 --> 00:08:05,879 magnetic equator as possible, where the particle density is naturally lower. 169 00:08:06,279 --> 00:08:08,600 They essentially skim the thinnest parts of the donut, not 170 00:08:08,639 --> 00:08:09,519 punching through the middle. 171 00:08:09,639 --> 00:08:12,959 Speaker 1: Okay, let's talk about that specific move, the translinar injection, 172 00:08:13,120 --> 00:08:15,879 the TLI burn. That was the moment it all happened. 173 00:08:15,639 --> 00:08:17,959 Speaker 2: Right now, that was the key. The spacecraft would do 174 00:08:18,000 --> 00:08:20,160 an orbit or two of the Earth, checking all the 175 00:08:20,160 --> 00:08:24,160 systems in the safety of ILIO. Then at the perfect moment, 176 00:08:24,360 --> 00:08:26,360 as they were at the lowest point of their orbit, 177 00:08:26,600 --> 00:08:28,959 they'd fire that big third stage. 178 00:08:28,560 --> 00:08:31,319 Speaker 1: Engine and that gave them a massive push toward. 179 00:08:31,160 --> 00:08:33,960 Speaker 2: The Moon, a massive push. And that one burn did 180 00:08:34,000 --> 00:08:36,960 two critical things. First, it put them on the fastest 181 00:08:36,960 --> 00:08:40,360 possible path, and second, it meant they were traveling at 182 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:44,200 their absolute maximum speed right as they entered the Inner Belt. 183 00:08:44,399 --> 00:08:46,639 Speaker 1: And speed was the other half of the equation, because 184 00:08:46,679 --> 00:08:49,080 dose is all about time. The less time you spend there, 185 00:08:49,159 --> 00:08:52,399 the less radiation you get. How fast were they going as. 186 00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:55,000 Speaker 2: They were leaving Earth during that burn? Sources say they 187 00:08:55,080 --> 00:08:57,679 hit speeds of around two thousan forty miles per hour 188 00:08:58,000 --> 00:09:01,240 over three two hundred kilometers per hour. That kind of 189 00:09:01,240 --> 00:09:03,720 speed means your exposure time is just slashed. 190 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:06,039 Speaker 1: And we know exactly how long they spent in there. 191 00:09:06,200 --> 00:09:08,960 Speaker 2: We do, and this comes from Van Allen himself. He 192 00:09:09,039 --> 00:09:12,879 confirmed it. He stated that the Apollo spacecraft spent only 193 00:09:12,919 --> 00:09:15,799 about fifteen minutes in traversing the region of the Inner Belt, 194 00:09:15,919 --> 00:09:19,360 fifteen minutes fifteen minutes in the worst part. The much larger, 195 00:09:19,519 --> 00:09:22,559 much less dangerous Outer Belt took less than two hours 196 00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:24,960 to cross, So the whole trip through the belts was 197 00:09:24,960 --> 00:09:27,320 a little over two hours, but only a tiny fraction 198 00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:28,879 of that was in the high danger zone. 199 00:09:28,919 --> 00:09:33,600 Speaker 1: Okay, that's a game changer. Fifteen minutes that speed and 200 00:09:33,639 --> 00:09:36,720 trajectory have to drastically reduce the dose. So now we 201 00:09:36,759 --> 00:09:39,279 have to hit the core claim head on. The theory 202 00:09:39,360 --> 00:09:43,240 says this dose was lethal. What were the actual measured 203 00:09:43,240 --> 00:09:44,960 doses the astronauts received. 204 00:09:45,279 --> 00:09:47,840 Speaker 2: This is the data that just ends the argument. The 205 00:09:47,919 --> 00:09:50,879 total measured radiation for the entire trip that's through the 206 00:09:50,879 --> 00:09:53,840 belts twice and the time on the Moon was incredibly low. 207 00:09:54,000 --> 00:09:56,480 How low it varied a bit by mission, but it 208 00:09:56,600 --> 00:09:58,879 ranged from a low of point one six rads to 209 00:09:58,919 --> 00:10:01,399 a high of one point one fear ads. That high 210 00:10:01,399 --> 00:10:03,440 reading was on Apollo fourteen. 211 00:10:03,240 --> 00:10:06,600 Speaker 1: One point one four rads. That number doesn't mean much 212 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:08,679 to most people. Can you put that in context for us? 213 00:10:08,919 --> 00:10:11,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, the Smithsonian has a great comparison. That highest skin 214 00:10:11,960 --> 00:10:15,000 dose one point one four RADS is about the same 215 00:10:15,039 --> 00:10:16,840 as getting two head CT scans. 216 00:10:16,879 --> 00:10:19,440 Speaker 1: Okay, so not great for you, but certainly not. 217 00:10:19,399 --> 00:10:23,039 Speaker 2: Lethal, not even close to lethal. To understand the scale, 218 00:10:23,080 --> 00:10:26,399 you need to know the benchmarks acute radiation sickness, where 219 00:10:26,440 --> 00:10:29,120 you get really sick that starts at around one hundred 220 00:10:29,159 --> 00:10:32,480 to two hundred rads. A dose it's generally considered fatal 221 00:10:32,519 --> 00:10:33,879 is up around one thousand rats. 222 00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:36,559 Speaker 1: So if the highest dose was one point one four 223 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:39,000 and sickness starts at one hundred, we're talking about a 224 00:10:39,000 --> 00:10:41,360 boase that's one hundred times smaller than the danger. 225 00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:44,360 Speaker 2: Level, exactly two orders of magnitude. And again Van Allen 226 00:10:44,480 --> 00:10:46,120 himself put this to bed at the time. He said 227 00:10:46,200 --> 00:10:49,320 the round trip exposure was and I'm quoting, less than 228 00:10:49,360 --> 00:10:52,519 one percent of a fatal dosage. The math checks out 229 00:10:52,840 --> 00:10:53,879 the risk was managed. 230 00:10:53,960 --> 00:10:56,159 Speaker 1: I see why the vib transit part of the theory 231 00:10:56,159 --> 00:10:57,960 falls apart then, But I do have a question. I 232 00:10:57,960 --> 00:10:59,480 think a lot of our listeners would have, Okay, one 233 00:10:59,519 --> 00:11:01,360 point one five rads isn't going to kill you on 234 00:11:01,360 --> 00:11:04,399 the spot, but doesn't any dose of radiation increase your 235 00:11:04,440 --> 00:11:05,600 long term cancer risk? 236 00:11:05,799 --> 00:11:08,279 Speaker 2: That is an excellent, excellent point, and that's where the 237 00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:11,879 conversation has to shift from short term survival to long 238 00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:16,159 term risk. That small dose was considered an acceptable risk 239 00:11:16,600 --> 00:11:18,080 for a short nine or ten. 240 00:11:18,039 --> 00:11:20,120 Speaker 1: Day mission, but for a three year mission to Mars 241 00:11:20,159 --> 00:11:21,639 it would be a different story. 242 00:11:21,480 --> 00:11:25,720 Speaker 2: A totally different story. The chronic low dose exposure is 243 00:11:25,799 --> 00:11:29,919 the central problem for Mars missions, but for Apollo they 244 00:11:30,000 --> 00:11:33,559 could handle that small, one time hit. There was, however, 245 00:11:33,759 --> 00:11:37,399 one risk they absolutely could not engineer their way around. 246 00:11:37,120 --> 00:11:37,840 Speaker 1: And that was the Sun. 247 00:11:38,000 --> 00:11:40,080 Speaker 2: That was the Sun. It's often called the luck factor 248 00:11:40,080 --> 00:11:43,039 of Apollo, and that's not an exaggeration. They could plan 249 00:11:43,120 --> 00:11:46,320 the trajectory to the millimeter, but they couldn't perfectly predict 250 00:11:46,360 --> 00:11:47,840 a solar particle event. 251 00:11:47,759 --> 00:11:50,159 Speaker 1: Or an spe a solar flare. 252 00:11:49,960 --> 00:11:53,360 Speaker 2: A big one. Yeah, And Marque's analysis on this is 253 00:11:53,399 --> 00:11:56,240 really clear. He points out that even though Apollo eleven 254 00:11:56,320 --> 00:11:59,240 launched in nineteen sixty nine, which was a solar maximum year, 255 00:11:59,360 --> 00:12:02,600 a very active year for the Sun, during their specific 256 00:12:02,639 --> 00:12:05,320 slight window, the Sun was totally. 257 00:12:05,000 --> 00:12:07,120 Speaker 1: Quiet and they needed that quiet sun For all the 258 00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:07,840 missions we did. 259 00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:11,120 Speaker 2: They relied on solar weather forecasting, which was pretty basic 260 00:12:11,159 --> 00:12:11,519 back then. 261 00:12:11,759 --> 00:12:13,559 Speaker 1: What would have happened if they had been wrong? If 262 00:12:13,600 --> 00:12:15,639 a big flare had gone off while they were on 263 00:12:15,679 --> 00:12:16,919 the way to the Moon, it would. 264 00:12:16,759 --> 00:12:20,440 Speaker 2: Have been catastrophic. A major X class flare can blast 265 00:12:20,480 --> 00:12:23,080 out a wave of proton radiation that could deliver a 266 00:12:23,120 --> 00:12:24,480 dose of up to ten. 267 00:12:24,399 --> 00:12:26,919 Speaker 1: Seaverts and ten severts is is. 268 00:12:26,919 --> 00:12:30,120 Speaker 2: A lethal dose. Murky is blunt about it. He says 269 00:12:30,120 --> 00:12:32,960 an event like that, in fact should be deadly. 270 00:12:33,080 --> 00:12:35,240 Speaker 1: And this isn't just a theory. We have a real 271 00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:38,600 world example of a terrifying near miss that proves this 272 00:12:38,840 --> 00:12:39,840 exact point. 273 00:12:40,120 --> 00:12:43,759 Speaker 2: We do the solar storm of August nineteen seventy two. 274 00:12:44,159 --> 00:12:46,320 It was one of the biggest storms ever recorded, and 275 00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:48,799 it happened right in the gap between the Apollo sixteen 276 00:12:49,039 --> 00:12:50,559 and Apollo seventeen missions. 277 00:12:50,639 --> 00:12:52,759 Speaker 1: So if either of those missions had shifted by just 278 00:12:52,799 --> 00:12:53,600 a couple of weeks. 279 00:12:53,879 --> 00:12:57,000 Speaker 2: The Smithsonian reports are very clear on this. Had astronat's 280 00:12:57,000 --> 00:12:59,440 been in transit or on the lunar surface during that storm, 281 00:12:59,559 --> 00:13:02,399 they would have received a lethal dose of radiation. Period. 282 00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:05,919 Speaker 1: Wow, that near miss is almost the most compelling evidence 283 00:13:05,960 --> 00:13:08,600 that they really went. It proves they understood the real 284 00:13:08,679 --> 00:13:09,759 risks precisely. 285 00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:13,480 Speaker 2: It does. It shows the VAB was a non solvable 286 00:13:13,519 --> 00:13:17,960 engineering problem. It was a sprint, but the random acute 287 00:13:18,039 --> 00:13:21,360 thread of the sun was the real potential killer out there. 288 00:13:21,960 --> 00:13:25,080 The conspiracy focus is on the wrong problem. 289 00:13:25,519 --> 00:13:28,440 Speaker 1: Okay, so we've established that Apollo was short, it was fast, 290 00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:31,279 and it was lucky, but that was then now we're 291 00:13:31,279 --> 00:13:33,519 talking about going back to the Moon to stay and 292 00:13:33,559 --> 00:13:37,799 going to Mars missions lasting months, even years. 293 00:13:37,679 --> 00:13:40,799 Speaker 2: And that's where the radiation environment changes completely. The challenge 294 00:13:40,799 --> 00:13:44,720 shifts from surviving a short acute dose to surviving a long, 295 00:13:44,879 --> 00:13:45,639 chronic one. 296 00:13:45,799 --> 00:13:48,919 Speaker 1: Right once you're outside the protection of Earth's magnetic field, 297 00:13:49,320 --> 00:13:50,159 what are you dealing with? 298 00:13:50,240 --> 00:13:53,759 Speaker 2: You're dealing with two main things constantly. The first and 299 00:13:53,840 --> 00:13:57,480 maybe the most insidious is galactic cosmic RaSE GCRs. 300 00:13:57,639 --> 00:13:59,440 Speaker 1: Okay, what are GCRs? Where do they come from? 301 00:13:59,519 --> 00:14:01,720 Speaker 2: They come from way outside our Solar system. They're mostly 302 00:14:01,799 --> 00:14:05,320 from supernovae exploding stars. They are the constant background radiation 303 00:14:05,399 --> 00:14:06,320 of the universe. 304 00:14:06,039 --> 00:14:08,159 Speaker 1: Like a constant drizzle of radiation. 305 00:14:07,879 --> 00:14:09,320 Speaker 2: A good way to think of it, but it's a 306 00:14:09,440 --> 00:14:14,639 very nasty rizzle. These are extremely high energy particles. We're 307 00:14:14,679 --> 00:14:19,840 talking atomic nucleiron silicons stripped of their electrons and moving 308 00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:22,039 it nearly the speed of light. They're what we call 309 00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:25,759 high loote tarticles linear energy transfer, it's a measure of 310 00:14:25,759 --> 00:14:28,639 how much energy a particle dumps into pissue when it 311 00:14:28,679 --> 00:14:32,720 passes through highlight. Particles are like cannonballs on a cellular level. 312 00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:35,679 They can shred DNA strands in ways that are very 313 00:14:35,679 --> 00:14:37,240 difficult for the body to repair. 314 00:14:37,559 --> 00:14:40,200 Speaker 1: So that's the chronic constant threat. What's the other one. 315 00:14:40,360 --> 00:14:42,960 Speaker 2: The other one is still the sun. Solar particle events 316 00:14:43,080 --> 00:14:46,720 or spees. They're not constant, they're sporadic. But when a 317 00:14:46,759 --> 00:14:50,200 big one happens, the sheer number of particles the flux 318 00:14:50,559 --> 00:14:52,240 can spike to insane levels. 319 00:14:52,320 --> 00:14:56,000 Speaker 1: So you've got the GCR drizzle and the SPE thunderstorm. 320 00:14:55,480 --> 00:14:59,000 Speaker 2: Perfect analogy, and shielding against that GCR drizzle is way 321 00:14:59,000 --> 00:15:01,279 way harder than shielding against the stuff in the Van 322 00:15:01,320 --> 00:15:01,919 Allen belts. 323 00:15:01,960 --> 00:15:03,000 Speaker 1: Why is this so much harder? 324 00:15:03,080 --> 00:15:05,559 Speaker 2: Two big reasons. First, the energy levels are just off 325 00:15:05,559 --> 00:15:07,480 the charts. You need a huge amount of mass to 326 00:15:07,480 --> 00:15:10,600 stop them. But second, and this is a huge problem, 327 00:15:10,759 --> 00:15:13,000 is something called spillation spellation. 328 00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:13,480 Speaker 1: What's that. 329 00:15:13,799 --> 00:15:16,679 Speaker 2: It's when one of those high energy GCR cannon balls 330 00:15:17,039 --> 00:15:20,840 hits the aluminum shielding of your spacecraft. It doesn't just stop, 331 00:15:21,240 --> 00:15:24,480 It shatters the nucleus of an aluminum atom, creating a 332 00:15:24,519 --> 00:15:28,679 shower of secondary radiation neutrons other particles inside the ship. 333 00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:31,159 Speaker 1: So the shield itself becomes a source of radiation. 334 00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:34,320 Speaker 2: It can Yeah, the secondary shower can sometimes be more 335 00:15:34,360 --> 00:15:37,600 biologically damaging than the original particle would have been. It's 336 00:15:37,639 --> 00:15:41,039 a nightmare for engineers. You can't just use lead. Lead 337 00:15:41,080 --> 00:15:43,320 would actually make the secondary radiation worse. 338 00:15:43,559 --> 00:15:44,399 Speaker 1: So what do you use? 339 00:15:44,799 --> 00:15:49,120 Speaker 2: Materials with lots of hydrogen are good water plastics like polyethylene. 340 00:15:49,320 --> 00:15:52,960 Hydrogen is good at absorbing those secondary particles without creating 341 00:15:53,039 --> 00:15:53,720 more of its own. 342 00:15:54,039 --> 00:15:56,320 Speaker 1: This all sounds like a massive weight problem for a 343 00:15:56,360 --> 00:15:59,159 Mars mission. How much shielding are we talking about? 344 00:15:59,240 --> 00:16:02,440 Speaker 2: The numbers are pretty daunting. Researchers like Donald Rapp have 345 00:16:02,519 --> 00:16:05,919 run the models, and for a long interplanetary trip, say 346 00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:09,360 six months to Mars, you need what they call substantial 347 00:16:09,600 --> 00:16:13,480 omnidirectional shielding on the order of about thirty grams per 348 00:16:13,519 --> 00:16:14,279 square centimeter. 349 00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:16,759 Speaker 1: Thirty grams per square centimeter, How does that compare to 350 00:16:16,799 --> 00:16:17,600 what we use now? 351 00:16:17,759 --> 00:16:21,559 Speaker 2: It's a huge jump. A spacecraft like the ISS or 352 00:16:21,600 --> 00:16:24,440 the Space Shuttle only has about five to ten gram 353 00:16:24,519 --> 00:16:27,799 for square centimeters shielding on average, So moving to thirty 354 00:16:27,840 --> 00:16:30,240 means you have to triple your shielding mass. 355 00:16:29,960 --> 00:16:32,879 Speaker 1: Which means a much bigger, heavier ship that's much more 356 00:16:32,919 --> 00:16:33,440 expensive to. 357 00:16:33,480 --> 00:16:37,639 Speaker 2: Launch prohibitively so with current rockets, It's why Apollo use 358 00:16:37,759 --> 00:16:41,399 speed over mass. They couldn't afford the weight. We still 359 00:16:41,399 --> 00:16:44,080 struggle with that exact same trade off for mars today. 360 00:16:44,519 --> 00:16:46,759 Speaker 1: So let's talk about the health effects of that chronic 361 00:16:46,840 --> 00:16:50,440 GCR dose. What happens to an astronaut's body over hundreds 362 00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:51,600 of days out there. 363 00:16:51,720 --> 00:16:55,360 Speaker 2: The risks become less about immediate sickness and more about 364 00:16:55,399 --> 00:16:58,840 long term breakdown. The sources break it down by dose. 365 00:16:59,159 --> 00:17:01,759 At the lower end, from zero to half a severt, 366 00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:04,319 you start to see measurable damage to the immune. 367 00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:07,519 Speaker 1: System, which is really bad In a tiny, confined space 368 00:17:07,559 --> 00:17:08,880 capsule with other people. 369 00:17:08,680 --> 00:17:12,319 Speaker 2: It's critical. Yeah, latent viruses can reactivate, You're more susceptible 370 00:17:12,319 --> 00:17:15,000 to infection. As the dose climbs up toward one or 371 00:17:15,000 --> 00:17:18,200 two seaverts, you start seeing damage to things like bone marrow, 372 00:17:18,240 --> 00:17:19,680 which affects your blood cell production. 373 00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:21,400 Speaker 1: And then, of course the big one is cancer. 374 00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:24,720 Speaker 2: The long term cancer risk is the primary concern, and 375 00:17:24,799 --> 00:17:29,279 beyond that, there's growing evidence that GCRs can cause neurocognitive damage. 376 00:17:29,839 --> 00:17:32,960 The highly t particles can damage neurons in ways that 377 00:17:33,079 --> 00:17:35,759 might not show for years, but could affect memory and 378 00:17:35,839 --> 00:17:36,680 cognitive function. 379 00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:39,200 Speaker 1: And the danger doesn't even stop when you land on 380 00:17:39,279 --> 00:17:40,240 Mars or the Moon. 381 00:17:40,119 --> 00:17:42,680 Speaker 2: Not at all. You're still outside Earth's magnetic shield. You've 382 00:17:42,680 --> 00:17:44,799 got the planet below you blocking half the sky, but 383 00:17:44,839 --> 00:17:47,440 you're still getting blasted from above. We have real data 384 00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:47,839 on this. 385 00:17:47,799 --> 00:17:49,640 Speaker 1: Now from the Chinese lender on the Moon. 386 00:17:49,799 --> 00:17:51,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, the chasy Form mission measured the dose on the 387 00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:54,720 lunar surface. It came out to about thirteen hundred and 388 00:17:54,799 --> 00:17:59,200 sixty nine micro severts per day. To put that in perspective, 389 00:17:59,240 --> 00:18:01,799 that's about two and half times the dose astronauts get 390 00:18:01,839 --> 00:18:03,079 on the ISS Wow. 391 00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:05,319 Speaker 1: And Mars is a little better, I assume, because it 392 00:18:05,359 --> 00:18:07,079 has an atmosphere a little. 393 00:18:06,799 --> 00:18:10,559 Speaker 2: It's very thin, but it helps. The Curiosity Rover measured 394 00:18:10,559 --> 00:18:12,920 about six hundred and twenty four microceivers per day on 395 00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:16,960 the Martian surface. It's still a significant dose. It confirms 396 00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:19,559 that any long term habitat on the Moon or Mars 397 00:18:19,759 --> 00:18:20,759 will have to be buried. 398 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:23,799 Speaker 1: You'd have to use the regulif the soil as a shield. 399 00:18:24,039 --> 00:18:27,359 Speaker 2: Yep, bury the habitat under a meter or two of soil. 400 00:18:28,440 --> 00:18:31,519 It's the only practical way to provide enough passive shielding 401 00:18:31,559 --> 00:18:32,640 for a long term stay. 402 00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:35,920 Speaker 1: All of this, this incredible complexity brings us to the 403 00:18:35,960 --> 00:18:40,119 modern era to Artemis. The Artemis emission was uncrude, but 404 00:18:40,160 --> 00:18:42,000 it was really a full scale test of all this, 405 00:18:42,160 --> 00:18:42,720 wasn't it. 406 00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:45,839 Speaker 2: It was if Apollo was the proof of concept, Artemis 407 00:18:45,839 --> 00:18:49,039 I was the full scale validation. They were testing the 408 00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:52,079 environment and the strategies to mitigate it for the next 409 00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:53,519 generation of astronauts, and they. 410 00:18:53,440 --> 00:18:56,160 Speaker 1: Had some really sophisticated tools to do it. Tell us 411 00:18:56,200 --> 00:18:59,000 about that key experiment with the phantoms, right, the Marror 412 00:18:59,119 --> 00:19:00,559 experiment fantastic. 413 00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:04,799 Speaker 2: They use two female anthropomorphic phantoms named Helga and Zohar. 414 00:19:05,279 --> 00:19:08,880 These are basically high tech mannequins designed to perfectly replicate 415 00:19:09,079 --> 00:19:12,440 how different types of radiation affect human organs and tissue. 416 00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:14,480 Speaker 1: And they are packed with sensors. 417 00:19:14,119 --> 00:19:17,039 Speaker 2: Thousands of them, all sorts of docimeters to get a 418 00:19:17,079 --> 00:19:20,720 really detailed map of the radiation dose throughout the entire journey. 419 00:19:20,799 --> 00:19:23,200 Speaker 1: Why two of them and why female models? 420 00:19:23,359 --> 00:19:27,359 Speaker 2: They used two so they could test a shield. Zohar 421 00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:30,440 wore something called an astra red vest, which is a 422 00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:33,920 wearable radiation shield, while Helga was unprotected. It was a 423 00:19:33,960 --> 00:19:38,200 direct ab test, and they used female phantoms because based 424 00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:41,079 on our current risk models, women have a higher lifetime 425 00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:44,559 risk of developing cancer from the same radiation dose as man. 426 00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:47,960 Speaker 1: So by designing the protection for them, you're essentially protecting 427 00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:50,119 everyone to the highest possible standards. 428 00:19:50,160 --> 00:19:52,680 Speaker 2: Exactly, you engineer for the most susceptible case. 429 00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:56,319 Speaker 1: So what did this incredibly detailed experiment tell us about 430 00:19:56,359 --> 00:19:59,480 the Van Allen Belts, the original Apollo hazard? 431 00:20:00,039 --> 00:20:03,599 Speaker 2: It provided really the ultimate modern validation. First, the orion 432 00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:06,440 capsule is a beast. It's heavily shielded, much more so 433 00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:09,359 than Apollo. Some spots have over twenty grams per square 434 00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:12,079 centimeter of shielding. But even with all that, when they 435 00:20:12,079 --> 00:20:14,920 path through the proton belts, the sensors saw a four 436 00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:17,799 full difference in dose rates between the most and least 437 00:20:17,799 --> 00:20:18,680 shielded parts of. 438 00:20:18,599 --> 00:20:21,319 Speaker 1: The cabin So where you sit really really matters. 439 00:20:21,599 --> 00:20:24,720 Speaker 2: It matters a lot. It concerns The VAB is still 440 00:20:24,799 --> 00:20:29,319 intensely dangerous, but just like Apollo, the transit was quick. 441 00:20:29,880 --> 00:20:32,640 Once they were out in deep space, the overall dose 442 00:20:32,759 --> 00:20:35,480 was completely dominated by those galactic cosmic rays. 443 00:20:35,519 --> 00:20:38,799 Speaker 1: So the VAB is a dangerous hurdle, but the GCRs 444 00:20:38,799 --> 00:20:40,279 are the marathon you have to run. 445 00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:42,880 Speaker 2: That's a great way to put it. The VAB transit 446 00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:45,640 accounted for less than a quarter of the total mission dose. 447 00:20:45,799 --> 00:20:50,599 Speaker 1: Okay, but did Artemis prove that the Apollo strategy was 448 00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:53,319 sound the whole idea of using speed and orientation. 449 00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:55,799 Speaker 2: It did, And this is one of the coolest findings 450 00:20:55,799 --> 00:20:58,480 from the mission. As Orion was punching through the inner belt, 451 00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:01,799 they did a planned five minutes ninety degree rotation, a 452 00:21:01,839 --> 00:21:02,440 simple turn. 453 00:21:02,559 --> 00:21:03,319 Speaker 1: And what did that do? 454 00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:06,440 Speaker 2: It resulted in a fifty percent reduction in the radiation 455 00:21:06,519 --> 00:21:08,519 dose rates being measured by the sensors. 456 00:21:08,599 --> 00:21:10,079 Speaker 1: Wow, just by turning the ship. 457 00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:12,559 Speaker 2: Just by turning the ship to present its most heavily 458 00:21:12,559 --> 00:21:14,920 shielded area to the most intense part of the flux, 459 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:20,240 it's definitive proof that active maneuvering is an incredibly effective countermeasure. 460 00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:23,119 It proves the nineteen sixties engineers had it exactly right. 461 00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:27,440 Speaker 1: That's incredible. So we've got trajectory passive shielding like the hull, 462 00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:30,799 and tactical shielding like vests and moving around the cabin. 463 00:21:31,279 --> 00:21:35,680 What about the big sci fi idea active shielding generating 464 00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:39,839 a magnetic field like a mini magnetosphere to deflect particles. 465 00:21:40,079 --> 00:21:42,559 Speaker 2: Yeah, everyone asks about this. It sounds like the perfect solution, 466 00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:46,839 but the physics for now is just brutal research from 467 00:21:46,839 --> 00:21:49,400 people like doctor Ronald Turner makes it pretty clear that 468 00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:52,000 it's just not practical right now? Why not two huge 469 00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:56,359 problems mass and safety. To generate a magnetic field strong 470 00:21:56,440 --> 00:22:00,000 enough to stop high energy GCRs, you'd need massive souper 471 00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:02,920 conducting magnets. The weight of the magnets and all the 472 00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:05,720 cooling systems you'd need would be well, it would weighs 473 00:22:05,759 --> 00:22:07,680 much or more than just adding more passive shielding. 474 00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:10,200 Speaker 1: So if it weighs the same, what's the point exactly? 475 00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:13,480 Speaker 2: Why add all that complexity and risk? And the risk 476 00:22:13,599 --> 00:22:15,680 is the second part. The amount of energy you'd have 477 00:22:15,759 --> 00:22:18,640 to store in a magnetic field that powerful is enormous. 478 00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:21,400 We're talking about the same energy as a small. 479 00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:24,640 Speaker 1: Tactical nuke, and if that system fails, a failure. 480 00:22:24,599 --> 00:22:27,519 Speaker 2: What they call a quench event, could release all that 481 00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:32,119 energy instantly and catastrophically. It's just too dangerous and too 482 00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:36,440 complex with our current technology. So passive shielding, just putting 483 00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:38,799 mass in the way is still the only game in town. 484 00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:43,880 Speaker 1: All of these challenges, the GCRs, the shielding mass, the SPEs, 485 00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:48,119 it all forces the agencies into this really tough ethical 486 00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:51,599 spot right how do you decide what's an acceptable level 487 00:22:51,599 --> 00:22:53,279 of risk for a human life. 488 00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:55,839 Speaker 2: This is one of the most critical debates happening in 489 00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:59,400 space exploration right now. For a long time, NASA's career 490 00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:02,720 radiation limits were really complicated. They were different based on 491 00:23:02,839 --> 00:23:04,160 your age and your sex. 492 00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:05,839 Speaker 1: Because the risk is different for different people. 493 00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:08,160 Speaker 2: Right It's all based on a metric called risk of 494 00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:11,559 Exposure induced death or READ. The goal is to keep 495 00:23:11,599 --> 00:23:15,240 the extra lifetime cancer risk for an astronaut below three percent. 496 00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:19,279 Because younger astronauts and female astronauts have a longer life 497 00:23:19,319 --> 00:23:22,319 ahead of them and different tissue sensitivities, their dose limits 498 00:23:22,319 --> 00:23:24,200 had to be much much lower to stay under that 499 00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:25,160 three percent cap. 500 00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:27,400 Speaker 1: Which must have been a nightmare for planning missions, a 501 00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:28,079 huge one. 502 00:23:28,319 --> 00:23:32,720 Speaker 2: So NATA has proposed a major change, a single universal 503 00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:34,359 career limit for every astronaut. 504 00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:35,200 Speaker 1: And what's that limit? 505 00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:39,559 Speaker 2: Around six hundred millisecrets. And here's the crucial part. They 506 00:23:39,559 --> 00:23:42,680 got to that number by calculating the dose that would 507 00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:45,720 give the most susceptible person, a thirty five year old female, 508 00:23:46,039 --> 00:23:49,000 that three percent excess risk. Then they made that the 509 00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:49,880 standard for everyone. 510 00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:52,119 Speaker 1: So they're taking the highest safety standard and applying it 511 00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:53,440 across the board exactly. 512 00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:56,359 Speaker 2: It simplifies everything and it ensures everyone is protected to 513 00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:58,920 the same high standard. But what it really means is 514 00:23:58,920 --> 00:24:02,160 that as an institute tution, they're formally accepting that a 515 00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:05,519 three percent excess risk of fatal cancer is the potential 516 00:24:05,559 --> 00:24:07,440 cost of sending humans to Mars. 517 00:24:07,319 --> 00:24:09,640 Speaker 1: And other agencies have even higher limits they do. 518 00:24:10,279 --> 00:24:13,559 Speaker 2: The European, Russian and Canadian space agencies already use a 519 00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:16,759 universal limit of one thousand milliseiverts. The whole world is 520 00:24:16,799 --> 00:24:19,319 trying to figure out what level of risk is acceptable 521 00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:20,440 for this next great leap. 522 00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:23,200 Speaker 1: So this whole journey from that fifteen minute dash through 523 00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:25,319 the belts in nineteen sixty nine to this deep ethical 524 00:24:25,319 --> 00:24:27,519 debate today, it brings us right back to that initial 525 00:24:27,519 --> 00:24:28,359 conspiracy theory. 526 00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:31,680 Speaker 2: It does the claim that the Moon missions were faked 527 00:24:31,799 --> 00:24:35,680 because the radiation was just insurmountable, and when you look 528 00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:39,200 at all the evidence, the argument just completely collapses on itself. 529 00:24:39,279 --> 00:24:43,079 Speaker 1: It's what Professor Brainkeaton calls paradox right, a logical fallacy, 530 00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:44,279 a total paradox. 531 00:24:44,759 --> 00:24:48,000 Speaker 2: The people making the claim have to rely on NASA's 532 00:24:48,039 --> 00:24:52,559 own data, their very detailed radiation maps, their dose measurements 533 00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:54,920 to try and prove that NASA is lying. 534 00:24:55,279 --> 00:24:57,519 Speaker 1: You have to trust their science to call them liars. 535 00:24:57,640 --> 00:25:00,599 Speaker 2: Exactly, you're saying, I believe you're may tsurements of how 536 00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:03,400 dangerous this region is, but I refuse to believe you 537 00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:06,200 were smart enough to use those same measurements to plot 538 00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:08,519 a safe course through it. It doesn't make any sense. 539 00:25:08,559 --> 00:25:10,880 Speaker 1: If they were competent enough to map the danger so 540 00:25:11,039 --> 00:25:14,039 precisely before they even went, why would you assume they 541 00:25:14,039 --> 00:25:17,000 were too incompetent to solve the problem they had just defined. 542 00:25:17,079 --> 00:25:20,039 Speaker 2: The low dose readings from the Apollo missions aren't evidence 543 00:25:20,039 --> 00:25:23,440 of a lie. They're evidence of a stunningly successful engineering 544 00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:27,440 and navigation achievement. They are the proof that the science worked. 545 00:25:27,759 --> 00:25:30,480 Speaker 1: It's just a classic case of cherry picking gata. You 546 00:25:30,519 --> 00:25:33,160 start with your conclusion it was faked, and then you 547 00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:35,839 look for any scary sounding number that seems to support it, 548 00:25:36,079 --> 00:25:38,640 while you ignore all the context and all the solutions. 549 00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:41,079 Speaker 2: And the final irony is that the man himself, James 550 00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:43,880 Van Allen, whose name is on the belts, was a 551 00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:47,319 huge supporter of Apollo. He was the one who provided 552 00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:50,400 the initial maps that let them plan that safe route. 553 00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:53,880 He never ever said it was an insurmountable barrier. 554 00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:55,640 Speaker 1: So the bottom line here is that the Van Allen 555 00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:58,759 Belts are not some magical instant death ray. 556 00:25:59,079 --> 00:26:04,400 Speaker 2: They're a complex, dangerous, but ultimately manageable risk management problem. 557 00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:07,839 Apollo solved it with speed, trajectory and a bit of 558 00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:11,000 luck from the sun, and Artemis is proving that strategy 559 00:26:11,079 --> 00:26:13,920 was sound and building on it with even better technology. 560 00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:16,400 Speaker 1: The fact that those astronauts survived and that we have 561 00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:18,759 the hard data to prove exactly how they did it 562 00:26:18,799 --> 00:26:21,319 is really the greatest testament to the genius of that program. 563 00:26:21,359 --> 00:26:24,160 The challenge was absolutely real, but so was the solution. 564 00:26:24,599 --> 00:26:26,440 Speaker 2: So what does this all really mean for us now? 565 00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:29,000 I think it means the Apollo missions did more than 566 00:26:29,079 --> 00:26:31,359 just plant a flag. They gave us the first real 567 00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:35,039 data set on the deep space radiation environment, and scientists 568 00:26:35,079 --> 00:26:37,720 today are still using and validating that data for our 569 00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:39,640 missions to Mars and for lunar basis. 570 00:26:40,039 --> 00:26:44,559 Speaker 1: The radiation barrier is real, it's formidable, but it's an 571 00:26:44,559 --> 00:26:47,559 engineering problem. It's not a law of physics that says 572 00:26:47,599 --> 00:26:49,079 you shall not pass right. 573 00:26:49,279 --> 00:26:51,759 Speaker 2: And that leads to the final thought here. As we've said, 574 00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:55,359 the Apollo astronauts were lucky with the Sun. Future long 575 00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:58,480 duration missions to Mars can't depend on luck. And the 576 00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:01,920 fact that NASA is now formally debating setting a career 577 00:27:02,039 --> 00:27:05,920 radiation limit that accepts a three percent excess fatal risk, 578 00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:09,240 that shows you just how seriously they take the GCR threat. 579 00:27:09,839 --> 00:27:13,160 Speaker 1: We are consciously as a species deciding on the acceptable 580 00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:16,599 human cost for becoming multiplanetary. That three percent risk is 581 00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:18,559 the price of admission. So we want to leave you 582 00:27:18,559 --> 00:27:21,720 with this question. If you are an astronaut selected for 583 00:27:21,799 --> 00:27:24,559 the first crude mission to Mars, and you knew that 584 00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:27,680 your career radiation limit was set at that level, a 585 00:27:27,759 --> 00:27:30,799 universal standard based on protecting the most susceptible person, but 586 00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:33,599 still representing a three percent increased chance of a fatal 587 00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:37,000 cancer down the line, would you feel protected enough? Would 588 00:27:37,079 --> 00:27:39,119 you take that risk? Is that price too high for 589 00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:41,680 humanity's biggest lead? Let us know what you think.