WEBVTT 1 00:00:06.839 --> 00:00:16.920 Get ready for September three, twenty twenty five. Allegedly, according 2 00:00:16.920 --> 00:00:19.559 to the thing we call a calendar, this the o'celly effect. 3 00:00:19.640 --> 00:00:21.399 You know that because you found it and I'm not 4 00:00:21.399 --> 00:00:23.960 as easy to find as I used to be. Anyway, 5 00:00:24.120 --> 00:00:27.120 Welcome to a Wednesday. And since I meant to do 6 00:00:27.160 --> 00:00:30.640 a show yesterday, which was Tuesday, Tuesday, and didn't get 7 00:00:30.679 --> 00:00:32.960 to it, that means we're going to try and bang 8 00:00:33.000 --> 00:00:37.039 out too tonight. So what is it that I want 9 00:00:37.079 --> 00:00:39.600 to discuss with you? Well, I'm going to save the 10 00:00:39.600 --> 00:00:42.600 news to the second piece, just to see if my 11 00:00:42.719 --> 00:00:45.079 voice holds up, because I've been sick over the past 12 00:00:45.159 --> 00:00:47.560 few days and I've been doing the best well past 13 00:00:47.640 --> 00:00:51.520 few days, jeez, past I don't even know how long 14 00:00:51.600 --> 00:00:55.359 two weeks. Anyway, I've been sick. I've been trying to 15 00:00:55.399 --> 00:00:57.920 battle with things. Had the water shut off couple of times, 16 00:00:57.960 --> 00:01:00.920 had the electricity down, had the internet. You know, it's 17 00:01:00.960 --> 00:01:05.120 been a weird month. Anyway. Does anybody want to listen 18 00:01:05.159 --> 00:01:09.239 to me? Bitch? Probably not. Let's get to the reality 19 00:01:09.280 --> 00:01:12.280 of the reality. And this is something I'm gonna call 20 00:01:12.400 --> 00:01:18.319 the Mandela Mandola effect affect. Okay, hopefully you can follow 21 00:01:18.359 --> 00:01:21.359 that because the Mandela effect. We hear about this all 22 00:01:21.400 --> 00:01:24.840 the time, especially in the alternative spaces, and now it's 23 00:01:25.000 --> 00:01:28.719 very very popular on YouTube as well among many performative 24 00:01:29.719 --> 00:01:33.680 you know, seemingly conspiracy oriented channels. All that good stuff. Hey, 25 00:01:33.760 --> 00:01:36.920 let's blow your mind with the simulation theory, all that 26 00:01:37.000 --> 00:01:41.000 stuff which has been discussed in alternative media spaces for 27 00:01:41.560 --> 00:01:45.840 years and years, except now they generated through AI sludge 28 00:01:46.439 --> 00:01:51.560 and you know, clearly narrated AI. I think AI is 29 00:01:51.599 --> 00:01:54.760 assembling the video as well, and people are pumping these 30 00:01:54.799 --> 00:01:59.799 things out fast and furious. So let's get back to 31 00:01:59.840 --> 00:02:02.680 a real discussion on it and once again kind of 32 00:02:02.719 --> 00:02:06.680 cap it off. Because the bottom line on the Mandela effect, 33 00:02:07.159 --> 00:02:10.639 that whole concept that a lot of people think that 34 00:02:11.039 --> 00:02:14.680 they are from a different reality or different realities collided 35 00:02:14.879 --> 00:02:17.879 or something to this effect, due to the fact that 36 00:02:17.919 --> 00:02:22.000 they have a memory they believe of Nelson Mandela dying 37 00:02:22.759 --> 00:02:27.120 in the nineteen nineties and things changed from there, and 38 00:02:27.159 --> 00:02:29.400 then all of a sudden they think, you know, mister 39 00:02:29.479 --> 00:02:32.360 Peanut did or didn't have a monocle, the monopoly guy 40 00:02:32.439 --> 00:02:37.719 did or didn't have a monocle, etc. Etc. And therefore, 41 00:02:37.759 --> 00:02:40.599 since their memories don't match, or kit Kat had a dash, 42 00:02:40.719 --> 00:02:43.280 doesn't have a dash? Does have a dash? Now, as 43 00:02:43.280 --> 00:02:46.159 I'm saying these things and even bringing up the weirdness 44 00:02:46.280 --> 00:02:51.240 of the Sinbad movie that was allegedly produced called Shazam 45 00:02:51.960 --> 00:02:54.840 or Couzam and was it with Shack or was it 46 00:02:54.840 --> 00:02:58.360 with Sinbad? Simply because Sinbad used to run around in 47 00:02:58.439 --> 00:03:02.000 genie pants and all all that good stuff. People think 48 00:03:02.039 --> 00:03:06.319 that their memories are more reliable than the reality. And 49 00:03:06.479 --> 00:03:10.000 this leads us to two very interesting concepts. And like 50 00:03:10.039 --> 00:03:14.400 I said, the Mandela effect versus the Mandola effect. And 51 00:03:14.479 --> 00:03:17.360 in the news, I'm going to get to one of 52 00:03:17.400 --> 00:03:22.960 the reasons why people that know very little always believe 53 00:03:24.080 --> 00:03:28.319 their own stupidity above all else any evidence, anything that 54 00:03:28.400 --> 00:03:32.000 could disprove it. Their confidence in their stupidity is part 55 00:03:32.080 --> 00:03:35.360 of their stupidity. In fact, intelligence, once it gets to 56 00:03:35.400 --> 00:03:39.400 a certain level, causes one to question themselves and every 57 00:03:39.439 --> 00:03:43.879 assertion they find and even triple or quadruple check their facts, 58 00:03:44.400 --> 00:03:49.960 verify things, corroborate them, etc. When you're more intelligent, you 59 00:03:50.000 --> 00:03:53.719 are not quite as absolute in your certainties when your 60 00:03:53.719 --> 00:03:57.479 assertions come through your memory. In general, anything you've learned 61 00:03:59.000 --> 00:04:04.840 anyway This is all about the way memory is created 62 00:04:05.439 --> 00:04:09.199 and how people completely misunderstand it. And that's all there 63 00:04:09.280 --> 00:04:11.159 is to it. See, a lot of people think that 64 00:04:11.199 --> 00:04:13.560 a memory is a recording. I have a memory. Therefore 65 00:04:13.599 --> 00:04:17.480 it is the strongest thing, and indeed you can maintain 66 00:04:17.759 --> 00:04:22.920 and keep certain information about particular events stored in your mind. 67 00:04:23.040 --> 00:04:28.639 But every time you relive or reaccess that memory, it 68 00:04:28.759 --> 00:04:33.720 is altered chemically and directly by the electrical responses in 69 00:04:33.759 --> 00:04:39.199 the brain. Literally physiologically. The recall of your memory is 70 00:04:39.240 --> 00:04:42.360 an effort that takes place freshly every time you do it. 71 00:04:43.560 --> 00:04:47.879 And guess what, that's always subject to revision and always 72 00:04:48.000 --> 00:04:53.160 subject to at least perception being changed due to the 73 00:04:53.160 --> 00:04:56.720 fact that you have new information which has been added 74 00:04:56.759 --> 00:05:01.480 to and altered your perception from but new experiences, new 75 00:05:01.519 --> 00:05:05.879 things gained over time. You may not have understood something 76 00:05:05.920 --> 00:05:07.720 you were looking at at the age of five, but 77 00:05:07.839 --> 00:05:10.319 when you get to be ten, eleven, twelve, you now 78 00:05:10.399 --> 00:05:13.199 can put it into a context based on new information, 79 00:05:13.759 --> 00:05:16.399 and you might have not realized. You know, we've all 80 00:05:16.439 --> 00:05:18.600 heard the jokes about I thought mommy and Daddy were 81 00:05:18.600 --> 00:05:21.639 wrestling and they were actually having sex because the five 82 00:05:21.720 --> 00:05:24.319 year old didn't quite get sex just yet in their brain. 83 00:05:25.639 --> 00:05:27.720 And then when they realized that at the age of twelve, 84 00:05:27.800 --> 00:05:30.720 they realized that at the age of five, they saw sex. 85 00:05:32.120 --> 00:05:34.720 And that has to be adjusted now because now it 86 00:05:34.759 --> 00:05:37.439 doesn't look like wrestling. It doesn't appear to be a struggle, 87 00:05:37.439 --> 00:05:41.839 although I guess for some people's sex is a struggle anyway. 88 00:05:43.040 --> 00:05:46.279 The beauty of all of this is that we now 89 00:05:46.319 --> 00:05:49.160 live in a society where the Mandela effect is a 90 00:05:49.240 --> 00:05:55.759 useful tool as well as the Mendala affect. Now I'm 91 00:05:55.759 --> 00:05:58.600 gonna have to explain that thing in just a moment, 92 00:05:58.720 --> 00:06:03.079 But remember cast Sunstein, right, and the white paper that 93 00:06:03.160 --> 00:06:06.639 came out about turning conspiracy theories on their head, turning 94 00:06:06.639 --> 00:06:11.720 them against themselves, weaponizing them by infiltration, by misinformation, and 95 00:06:11.920 --> 00:06:17.439 all of that interesting stuff. Sunstein promised literate observers will 96 00:06:17.480 --> 00:06:24.079 see the intentional, ironic engineering to occupy the easily amused 97 00:06:24.160 --> 00:06:30.879 with trivial pursuits, rewarded with even less than a plastic wedge. Right, 98 00:06:31.360 --> 00:06:34.959 And a mandala, by the bye, is a sacred symbol creation. 99 00:06:35.319 --> 00:06:39.079 You've seen these sand pictures that people put together, you know, 100 00:06:39.279 --> 00:06:43.800 part of a very deep, very careful, very persistent, slow 101 00:06:43.879 --> 00:06:51.199 moving zen arrangement of sand or rocks. In these really elaborate, 102 00:06:51.240 --> 00:06:55.560 interesting designs have become quite symmetrical and all that. Yes, indeed, 103 00:06:55.839 --> 00:06:59.160 it's like an old Hindu practice that has been adopted 104 00:06:59.879 --> 00:07:04.120 and it comes from the Sanskrit word for circle and 105 00:07:04.959 --> 00:07:07.959 is meant to evoke the idea of a geometric design 106 00:07:08.120 --> 00:07:13.439 representing the cosmos or deities in the Hindu and Buddhist traditions. 107 00:07:14.480 --> 00:07:19.439 But the symbolic meaning of mandalis okay, symbolize the universe, 108 00:07:19.560 --> 00:07:25.519 its wholeness, its balance. That's why the symmetrical arrangement is necessary, 109 00:07:25.680 --> 00:07:31.759 and our relationship with infinity as it relates to relative positions. 110 00:07:33.360 --> 00:07:36.920 The creation is a meditative practice and the designs are 111 00:07:37.000 --> 00:07:42.920 meant to aid in spiritual and psychological growth. Okay. The 112 00:07:42.959 --> 00:07:46.560 purpose of course is to focus on the design and 113 00:07:46.920 --> 00:07:51.519 moving toward the center to where you have a finite 114 00:07:51.560 --> 00:07:55.839 amount of space and therefore it becomes complete. The practitioners 115 00:07:56.079 --> 00:08:00.000 symbolically guide themselves through a process of transforming a universe 116 00:08:00.759 --> 00:08:06.759 of chaos and suffering into one of a beautiful arrangement 117 00:08:07.920 --> 00:08:15.759 or you know what people call joy. Anyway, the Western interpretation, 118 00:08:16.439 --> 00:08:20.879 the psychologist Carl jung Right introduced the concept to the West, 119 00:08:21.040 --> 00:08:26.399 interpreting mandalis as archetypal symbols representing the mind's quest for 120 00:08:26.600 --> 00:08:31.759 inner reconciliation and wholeness. And even you can see this 121 00:08:32.080 --> 00:08:35.200 in the common Judeo Christian and practices where they say, 122 00:08:35.600 --> 00:08:38.840 you know, if it is as above as it is below, 123 00:08:38.919 --> 00:08:43.159 and so on and so forth. The cyclical and symmetrical 124 00:08:43.200 --> 00:08:47.399 relationship of what if you make it this way on earth, 125 00:08:47.440 --> 00:08:49.159 it can be this way in heaven, or if it 126 00:08:49.240 --> 00:08:51.080 is this way in heaven, it can be this way 127 00:08:51.120 --> 00:08:54.080 on earth. And people have continued to struggle with that 128 00:08:54.200 --> 00:08:59.919 open ended equation. Anyway, this is just another attempt to 129 00:09:00.080 --> 00:09:02.159 reveal the truth to people that really don't want it. 130 00:09:03.200 --> 00:09:05.639 But you know, again, I'm gonna keep going with this, 131 00:09:07.120 --> 00:09:09.840 and once again for context, the Mandela effect is a 132 00:09:09.879 --> 00:09:13.679 phenomenon which is a great example of those who know 133 00:09:13.879 --> 00:09:18.679 nothing insisting that they have discovered more than the reality 134 00:09:18.759 --> 00:09:23.080 they already have no grasp on. You know, you know 135 00:09:23.120 --> 00:09:26.960 all the product changes movie lines. Hey, I thought he said, Luke, 136 00:09:27.039 --> 00:09:29.759 I am your father versus no, I am your fado. 137 00:09:30.279 --> 00:09:34.840 But does anyone discussing the other universe principle understand that 138 00:09:35.000 --> 00:09:40.240 concept or even how that would manifest itself. Do they 139 00:09:40.240 --> 00:09:45.360 possess any knowledge on how memory works and the ability okay, 140 00:09:45.519 --> 00:09:49.240 for reprocessing of fragments stored in a less than static 141 00:09:49.360 --> 00:09:54.320 facility in the brain. No, they don't. They also don't 142 00:09:54.399 --> 00:09:57.840 understand the psychological phenomena. And believe me, I'm not a 143 00:09:57.919 --> 00:10:01.320 big fan of most of these, you know, psychological principles 144 00:10:01.320 --> 00:10:05.039 that are flung out there and represented as if they 145 00:10:05.039 --> 00:10:10.799 were scientific, even though they are performative and interesting insights 146 00:10:10.840 --> 00:10:14.399 sometimes into the sociology and the way that we interact 147 00:10:14.399 --> 00:10:17.679 with one another. The Dunning Kruger effect is something that 148 00:10:17.720 --> 00:10:19.240 I think people need to look up, and if you 149 00:10:19.279 --> 00:10:21.559 look in the show notes, I'll make sure to include it. 150 00:10:22.559 --> 00:10:27.799 But there's also a terrifying theory of stupidity, and these 151 00:10:27.799 --> 00:10:34.639 are things that again Machiavelli understood, okay, and even Sunsu 152 00:10:34.879 --> 00:10:39.559 with the Art of War, understood quite well how our 153 00:10:39.639 --> 00:10:43.440 memories formed. That is another interesting thing. Again, there is 154 00:10:43.480 --> 00:10:46.639 a biochemical element to it, and there is still a 155 00:10:46.679 --> 00:10:50.720 mystical element to it in that people that say they 156 00:10:50.799 --> 00:10:57.519 understand the body, the mind scientifically, etc. Cannot explain where 157 00:10:57.600 --> 00:11:04.240 storage and presentation become this unshaken reality in people's minds, 158 00:11:04.279 --> 00:11:08.879 their memories being absolute until often they're introduced with very 159 00:11:08.919 --> 00:11:12.840 solid evidence that their memory is flawed. And it happens 160 00:11:12.879 --> 00:11:16.600 all the time in eyewitness testimony, which is why you 161 00:11:16.639 --> 00:11:21.120 know eyewitness testimony is a useful guide, but is never 162 00:11:21.240 --> 00:11:26.120 the absolute certainty when you're seeking the truth of a circumstance, 163 00:11:26.200 --> 00:11:32.960 a situation, a landscape, anything anyway. The Mandela effect, flat 164 00:11:33.000 --> 00:11:36.879 earth and the everything is Fake paradigm are the best 165 00:11:36.919 --> 00:11:40.759 subversions of critical thinking and any chance for the conspiracy 166 00:11:40.799 --> 00:11:46.159 culture and those that challenge the architecture of selective ignorance. Okay, 167 00:11:46.360 --> 00:11:50.639 to seek the new savior, daddy. This is what the 168 00:11:50.720 --> 00:11:55.360 common populist idea is. And what do they do. It's 169 00:11:55.399 --> 00:12:00.559 because their adult minds can't confront the complexities of them, 170 00:12:01.120 --> 00:12:04.480 so defaulting to becoming a child and allowing the leadership 171 00:12:04.519 --> 00:12:09.600 to make all decisions, in all declarations absolute for them 172 00:12:09.759 --> 00:12:12.759 is the way to go. And it becomes even more 173 00:12:12.840 --> 00:12:18.360 confusing when the leader in air quotes is somebody who 174 00:12:18.399 --> 00:12:23.039 doesn't have a coherent message or a logical one. We 175 00:12:23.159 --> 00:12:26.279 see this more prominently on the you know, left handed 176 00:12:26.320 --> 00:12:30.840 side of things. Apparently because they are completely incoherent about 177 00:12:31.399 --> 00:12:35.759 their own standards. I mean, the standard on the right 178 00:12:35.799 --> 00:12:39.360 nowadays is very simple. Whatever Trump says goes, and if 179 00:12:39.360 --> 00:12:41.279 he changed his mind, then he changed his mind for 180 00:12:41.320 --> 00:12:45.879 a good reason. So follow the leader. Very simple. Now 181 00:12:45.960 --> 00:12:48.559 that has its own problems. Not going to get into that. 182 00:12:48.919 --> 00:12:51.480 Let's get back to the circular firing squad of the left. 183 00:12:52.039 --> 00:12:56.559 If you try to line up and make their alleged 184 00:12:56.559 --> 00:13:01.399 points of view and alleged you know of practice for 185 00:13:01.559 --> 00:13:05.679 morality into a straight line, you can't do it. They 186 00:13:05.720 --> 00:13:10.440 don't comport with one another, The cohorts do not comply 187 00:13:10.679 --> 00:13:15.639 with one another's logic. You have constant contradiction and subversion 188 00:13:17.039 --> 00:13:23.480 of the alleged core beliefs always, and I argue that 189 00:13:23.480 --> 00:13:27.679 that is on purpose, just like the turning of the 190 00:13:27.840 --> 00:13:33.960 entire leadership over to one man is also a terribly 191 00:13:34.039 --> 00:13:39.000 flawed circumstance on the right. But again, I'm not here 192 00:13:39.000 --> 00:13:41.799 to pick on the right. I'm here to pick on 193 00:13:41.879 --> 00:13:45.559 something else, like the confidence illusion. And I'm going to 194 00:13:45.679 --> 00:13:48.240 use a couple of YouTube video audios so you don't 195 00:13:48.240 --> 00:13:50.879 have to listen to me, because I know a lot 196 00:13:50.919 --> 00:13:54.559 of people have already tuned out because they've had an 197 00:13:54.600 --> 00:13:59.320 emotional reaction and somehow think I'm directing this at their 198 00:13:59.679 --> 00:14:05.320 team one way or another, at their particular compartment. But 199 00:14:05.360 --> 00:14:08.639 the truth is I'm directing this at ninety five percent 200 00:14:08.679 --> 00:14:13.159 of all people that you see anywhere, because there's only 201 00:14:13.159 --> 00:14:16.919 about five percent of us that are not trapped in 202 00:14:17.000 --> 00:14:22.080 the illusion of confidence. And the thing is, we don't 203 00:14:22.080 --> 00:14:26.320 get to positions of leadership when we're of a higher 204 00:14:26.360 --> 00:14:31.600 intellectual strength than those that are confident in their own ignorance. 205 00:14:33.480 --> 00:14:35.799 Let's see if these YouTube videos can help me explain 206 00:14:35.840 --> 00:14:40.879 this a little better for you guys, and I'll make 207 00:14:40.919 --> 00:14:43.080 some comments along the way. Plus I'll give you the 208 00:14:43.120 --> 00:14:44.720 links so you can take a listen to the whole 209 00:14:44.759 --> 00:14:47.679 thing yourself. And we'll just take portions of these and 210 00:14:47.720 --> 00:14:51.080 see what we do. The first one is called why 211 00:14:51.120 --> 00:14:54.639 the most Foolish People End Up in Power, and it 212 00:14:54.919 --> 00:14:59.240 does have a serious Machiavelli theme where they constantly refer 213 00:14:59.320 --> 00:15:03.960 back to the print and that Machiavellian creation. And we 214 00:15:04.039 --> 00:15:09.679 even have, you know, in our lexicon the idea of 215 00:15:09.720 --> 00:15:17.919 Machiavelli and Machiavellian strategies, styles behaviors. Maybe you'll relate to this. 216 00:15:18.039 --> 00:15:19.960 Maybe you won't, and maybe this will be a complete 217 00:15:19.960 --> 00:15:21.879 waste of time. And if you feel like that at 218 00:15:21.879 --> 00:15:24.200 this point, I urge you to go to probably the 219 00:15:24.240 --> 00:15:26.559 next podcast I'm gonna do, which is going to be 220 00:15:26.600 --> 00:15:28.200 about the news, and it will be a bit more 221 00:15:28.200 --> 00:15:32.240 blunt force trauma regarding the stupidity of things, and you'll 222 00:15:32.279 --> 00:15:35.240 be able to get emotionally attached to everything in the 223 00:15:35.279 --> 00:15:38.759 news according to your desires, just like you are right 224 00:15:38.799 --> 00:15:42.639 now listening to me. Anyway, enough of my voice, let's 225 00:15:42.720 --> 00:15:43.759 try somebody else's. 226 00:15:46.919 --> 00:15:49.320 Have you ever noticed how the loudest voice in the 227 00:15:49.399 --> 00:15:53.200 room often becomes the most influential, regardless of what that 228 00:15:53.279 --> 00:15:57.440 voice is actually saying. This phenomenon has deep roots in 229 00:15:57.480 --> 00:16:03.000 our psychological makeup. In nineties, psychologists David Dunning and Justin 230 00:16:03.080 --> 00:16:07.279 Krueger identified what we now know is the Dunning Krueger effect, 231 00:16:08.000 --> 00:16:12.039 the cognitive bias where people with limited knowledge dramatically overestimate 232 00:16:12.080 --> 00:16:16.440 their competence, while genuine experts tend to underestimate theirs. 233 00:16:17.120 --> 00:16:19.960 Sorry about that, I do realize that this is repeating 234 00:16:20.000 --> 00:16:22.960 part of what I said, and unfortunately we're going to 235 00:16:22.960 --> 00:16:25.519 have to listen to some of the same words I 236 00:16:25.600 --> 00:16:28.240 said before, and some of the same concepts are going 237 00:16:28.320 --> 00:16:31.639 to come up here. But the sad thing is some 238 00:16:31.679 --> 00:16:37.320 people are not even going to recognize that they're hearing well, 239 00:16:37.600 --> 00:16:39.960 some of the same sentiments being related to them once 240 00:16:40.000 --> 00:16:45.159 again in a slightly different context. So enjoy this anyway, 241 00:16:45.200 --> 00:16:47.480 but I wanted to point that out. They're already bringing 242 00:16:47.600 --> 00:16:52.320 up the Dunning Kruger psychological concept, and we're going to 243 00:16:52.360 --> 00:16:54.399 get into a little more of that a little later. 244 00:16:54.519 --> 00:16:57.240 But it does play a role in the Machiavellian thing 245 00:16:57.320 --> 00:17:00.360 as well, So let's continue of. 246 00:17:00.360 --> 00:17:02.840 How much they don't know. The fool does think he 247 00:17:02.960 --> 00:17:05.359 is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be 248 00:17:05.400 --> 00:17:10.279 a fool. Shakespeare captured this principal centuries before psychology gave 249 00:17:10.319 --> 00:17:14.279 it a name, but Machiavelli would have recognized it immediately 250 00:17:14.319 --> 00:17:19.480 as a fundamental truth about power dynamics. Modern research confirms 251 00:17:19.559 --> 00:17:24.200 this bias operates in leadership contexts. A twenty twenty study 252 00:17:24.240 --> 00:17:27.880 published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology found 253 00:17:27.920 --> 00:17:31.640 that individuals who displayed over confidence were more likely to 254 00:17:31.680 --> 00:17:35.200 be perceived as leaders by their peers, regardless of their 255 00:17:35.200 --> 00:17:39.680 actual competence. The appearance of certainty was more persuasive than 256 00:17:39.759 --> 00:17:45.519 demonstrated expertise. Consider figures like George Armstrong Custer, whose supreme 257 00:17:45.599 --> 00:17:50.000 confidence led to catastrophic military decisions yet earned him rapid 258 00:17:50.039 --> 00:17:54.200 promotions and devoted followers. Or look at the tech industry, 259 00:17:54.559 --> 00:17:59.559 where founders who speak in absolute visionary terms often secure 260 00:17:59.759 --> 00:18:04.599 men mass of funding over more measured experienced entrepreneurs. We 261 00:18:04.839 --> 00:18:09.240 works Adam Naimann exemplified this. Despite a shaky business model, 262 00:18:09.640 --> 00:18:13.440 his unshakable confidence helped him attract billions in investment and 263 00:18:13.440 --> 00:18:19.319 occult like following. This pattern repeats globally. Japan's Masayoshi son 264 00:18:19.359 --> 00:18:24.359 of SoftBank, lost seventy billion dollars on failed investments while 265 00:18:24.400 --> 00:18:30.400 maintaining investor confidence through sheer force of personality. Russia's oligarchs 266 00:18:30.519 --> 00:18:34.359 rose not through competence, but through connections and confidence during 267 00:18:34.359 --> 00:18:40.720 the post Soviet privatization. Singapore, by contrast, built safeguards specifically 268 00:18:40.759 --> 00:18:44.440 designed to prevent confidence from trumping competence in leadership selection. 269 00:18:45.519 --> 00:18:49.359 In twenty twelve, researchers from Stanford and the University of 270 00:18:49.400 --> 00:18:55.599 Houston found that narcissism, not competence, may be the strongest 271 00:18:55.599 --> 00:18:58.799 predictor of who emerges as a leader in unstructured groups. 272 00:19:00.119 --> 00:19:04.119 Groups led by narcissists didn't perform better. They just thought 273 00:19:04.160 --> 00:19:08.200 they did. Why does this happen? Our brains use mental 274 00:19:08.200 --> 00:19:14.440 shortcuts when evaluating others. Confidence signals competence, decisiveness suggests clarity 275 00:19:14.480 --> 00:19:19.079 of thought. These shortcuts served our ancestors well in straightforward environments. 276 00:19:19.079 --> 00:19:27.319 But okay, so again for context. There is a circumstance 277 00:19:27.359 --> 00:19:31.839 in which people believe things are going better or doing well, 278 00:19:33.000 --> 00:19:38.039 and they'll believe that regardless of what the empirical evidence displays. 279 00:19:38.559 --> 00:19:41.119 Whether it is Custer or it's these other guys who 280 00:19:41.200 --> 00:19:45.799 keep losing billions of dollars or you know whatever. There 281 00:19:45.799 --> 00:19:50.079 are circumstances in which people look at the results and 282 00:19:50.160 --> 00:19:52.519 still feel good about it, despite the fact that it 283 00:19:52.559 --> 00:19:58.279 is markedly and measurably worse off than the guy who 284 00:19:58.319 --> 00:20:02.640 actually is competent takes a more measured approach. See the 285 00:20:02.720 --> 00:20:06.920 emotional response. The emotional handle that they grab you by 286 00:20:07.079 --> 00:20:10.559 is a whole lot more effective than giving you facts 287 00:20:10.559 --> 00:20:15.480 and figures, and people glaze over. They just do. It's 288 00:20:15.519 --> 00:20:19.680 a simple reality here that we're dealing with all the 289 00:20:19.839 --> 00:20:25.640 time throughout history, and currently I think this explains Trump. 290 00:20:25.759 --> 00:20:28.720 But you know, you probably knew that if you've heard 291 00:20:28.759 --> 00:20:32.240 me before. Anyway, back to the history lesson. I like this. 292 00:20:32.759 --> 00:20:33.799 It's interesting. 293 00:20:37.960 --> 00:20:42.160 Become problematic in our complex modern world, where genuine expertise 294 00:20:42.319 --> 00:20:48.359 often involves acknowledging uncertainty. This confidence illusion explains how incompetent 295 00:20:48.440 --> 00:20:52.359 individuals might initially rise to power, but there's something even 296 00:20:52.480 --> 00:20:56.279 more insidious at play, a mechanism that helps them entrench 297 00:20:56.319 --> 00:20:58.680 their position throughout entire organizations. 298 00:21:03.920 --> 00:21:08.559 Throughout entire organizations. I like that. That's pretty interesting, And 299 00:21:08.599 --> 00:21:11.559 it's not always about the unstructured. Sometimes it's about quite 300 00:21:11.920 --> 00:21:18.440 well structured organizations as well. So we move from that 301 00:21:18.640 --> 00:21:21.759 into the network of incompetence. 302 00:21:31.319 --> 00:21:36.039 Incompetent leaders tend to surround themselves with even less competent subordinates. 303 00:21:36.960 --> 00:21:41.720 In the Prince, Machiavelli wrote, the first method for estimating 304 00:21:41.759 --> 00:21:44.160 the intelligence of a ruler is to look at the 305 00:21:44.200 --> 00:21:48.599 men he has around him. What Machiavelli understood was that 306 00:21:48.640 --> 00:21:52.480 weak leaders deliberately select weaker subordinates to ensure they never 307 00:21:52.480 --> 00:21:56.960 face threats to their authority. This creates a cascading effect 308 00:21:57.039 --> 00:22:03.240 wherein competence becomes institutionalized. Doctor Toma Camoro Primusic and organizational 309 00:22:03.240 --> 00:22:09.880 psychologists describes this as competence threatening. Insecure leaders feel threatened 310 00:22:09.880 --> 00:22:13.759 by competent team members who might expose their limitations or 311 00:22:13.799 --> 00:22:18.559 eventually replace them. Instead of selecting for talent, they select 312 00:22:18.559 --> 00:22:23.160 for loyalty and non threatening personalities. Think of it as 313 00:22:23.200 --> 00:22:27.880 a competence drought that spreads outward from central leadership. In 314 00:22:28.000 --> 00:22:34.079 Emperor Commutus's court, capable administrators were systematically replaced by flatterers 315 00:22:34.079 --> 00:22:40.480 and entertainers, accelerating Rome's decline. In contemporary Brazil, the Centrome 316 00:22:40.519 --> 00:22:46.400 political system institutionalizes this dynamic, where in competent political appointees 317 00:22:46.720 --> 00:22:52.039 secure positions through personal connections rather than merit. African nations 318 00:22:52.079 --> 00:22:56.559 like Zimbabwe under later Mugabe saw systematic replacement of capable 319 00:22:56.599 --> 00:23:03.680 administrators with partisan loyalists, devis dating economic consequences. Following this 320 00:23:03.759 --> 00:23:09.440 creates what organizational scientists call homeofully, the tendency of individuals 321 00:23:09.480 --> 00:23:14.039 to associate with similar others in power structures. This means 322 00:23:14.119 --> 00:23:19.680 incompetent leaders create islands of incompetence around themselves, insulated from 323 00:23:19.720 --> 00:23:25.039 conflicting viewpoints and constructive criticism. Ask yourself, have you ever 324 00:23:25.079 --> 00:23:29.160 worked in an organization, where asking questions was discouraged, where 325 00:23:29.200 --> 00:23:32.559 raising concerns was labeled as not being a team player. 326 00:23:33.519 --> 00:23:36.880 These are symptoms of this network effect and action. Yet 327 00:23:36.920 --> 00:23:40.440 even knowing all this, we still find ourselves drawn to 328 00:23:40.519 --> 00:23:45.519 leaders who offer simplistic answers. This vulnerability helps explain why 329 00:23:45.640 --> 00:23:53.200 incompetence continues to thrive despite our best intentions. Why do 330 00:23:53.240 --> 00:23:56.759 we often choose leaders who offer simple answers to complex problems. 331 00:23:57.519 --> 00:24:01.039 The answer lies in cognitive psychology and our fundamental need 332 00:24:01.079 --> 00:24:06.079 for certainty in an uncertain world. Genuine expertise is almost 333 00:24:06.160 --> 00:24:11.640 always accompanied by nuance. Real experts understand the limitations of 334 00:24:11.680 --> 00:24:17.279 their knowledge, They recognize complexity, they acknowledge trade offs. But 335 00:24:17.400 --> 00:24:22.240 these intellectual virtues can be profoundly unsatisfying to our psychological needs. 336 00:24:23.279 --> 00:24:26.920 For the great majority of mankind are satisfied with appearances 337 00:24:27.240 --> 00:24:30.680 as though they were realities, and are often more influenced 338 00:24:30.720 --> 00:24:33.319 by the things that seem than by those that are. 339 00:24:34.559 --> 00:24:38.480 When Machiavelli wrote these words, he identified something fundamental about 340 00:24:38.519 --> 00:24:43.799 human psychology. We crave certainty even when certainty isn't possible 341 00:24:43.920 --> 00:24:49.160 or realistic. Consider what happens in times of crisis or uncertainty. 342 00:24:49.640 --> 00:24:53.240 People rarely rally behind the leader who says this is 343 00:24:53.279 --> 00:24:57.119 a complex situation with no easy answers that will require 344 00:24:57.240 --> 00:25:02.119 careful thought and inevitable trade offs. Instead, they follow the 345 00:25:02.119 --> 00:25:07.279 person confidently proclaiming I alone can fix this. The solution 346 00:25:07.640 --> 00:25:13.240 is simple. Look at how actual environmental scientists speak about 347 00:25:13.319 --> 00:25:18.559 climate change with careful caveats, ranges of possibilities, and nuanced 348 00:25:18.599 --> 00:25:23.160 policy recommendations, versus how popular figures on both sides frame 349 00:25:23.240 --> 00:25:28.680 the issue with absolute certainty. The scientific approach, while intellectually honest, 350 00:25:29.000 --> 00:25:32.480 struggles to compete with the psychological comfort of simple narratives 351 00:25:33.319 --> 00:25:38.559 or consider healthcare debates, Actual medical experts acknowledge complex trade 352 00:25:38.559 --> 00:25:43.440 offs in any system, while political figures offered simplistic solutions 353 00:25:43.440 --> 00:25:48.359 that promise everything with no downsides. Which approach typically wins 354 00:25:48.400 --> 00:25:55.240 public support. The simple a certain one regardless of feasibility. 355 00:25:56.200 --> 00:25:58.599 See now the beauty of that is you can apply 356 00:25:58.720 --> 00:26:04.319 it directly to exactly how the whole COVID thing was sold. 357 00:26:06.039 --> 00:26:09.160 We have a solution, lock it down. We have another solution, 358 00:26:09.599 --> 00:26:13.359 arp speed, here's your bas we have another solution. It's 359 00:26:13.359 --> 00:26:17.680 all gone. None of these things were true in their 360 00:26:17.720 --> 00:26:22.799 absolute certainty and all of the wondrous things like put 361 00:26:22.799 --> 00:26:27.359 on a mask, you'll be fine. Also not a certainty, 362 00:26:27.880 --> 00:26:33.079 not scientifically sound. It wasn't as though it was completely useless, 363 00:26:33.279 --> 00:26:35.759 but it had its uses, And nobody talked about the 364 00:26:35.839 --> 00:26:41.960 nuance right and the vaccination, nobody talked about what it 365 00:26:42.079 --> 00:26:45.039 was or even got into the nuances of the concoction 366 00:26:45.200 --> 00:26:49.160 that was being loosed on people. And even today some 367 00:26:49.240 --> 00:26:53.119 of the more you know, supposedly intelligent people well speak 368 00:26:53.119 --> 00:26:56.599 in absolute certainties about this and try to draw you 369 00:26:57.279 --> 00:27:02.480 into paradigms where you only have certainties for choices absolutes, 370 00:27:05.000 --> 00:27:10.440 and yet they're both incorrect and it seems like there 371 00:27:10.519 --> 00:27:15.240 is no other choice being offered all the time. And 372 00:27:15.359 --> 00:27:18.039 I say, apply this to anything, like they said, apply 373 00:27:18.079 --> 00:27:20.480 it to your workspaces where you found that asking a 374 00:27:20.559 --> 00:27:22.519 question is a bad thing. You're not a team player 375 00:27:22.559 --> 00:27:27.200 now because you're looking to explore a possibility, trying to 376 00:27:27.240 --> 00:27:30.400 improve something. When they have a formula that they say 377 00:27:30.599 --> 00:27:34.960 is the only one, that's it, everything is the only 378 00:27:35.000 --> 00:27:39.400 one until there's another one that comes along. Everybody's the 379 00:27:39.440 --> 00:27:44.519 absolute certain master of the circumstance until it is so 380 00:27:44.720 --> 00:27:48.599 obviously clear that disaster strikes and even then there will 381 00:27:48.640 --> 00:27:52.480 be people that will defend the disaster as either inevitable 382 00:27:52.599 --> 00:27:56.960 or the fault of someone else. There is always a deflection, 383 00:27:57.119 --> 00:28:00.279 there is always a diversion, but there is no never 384 00:28:00.400 --> 00:28:06.559 the careful examination by people who might be might be 385 00:28:07.079 --> 00:28:11.920 examining things outside of their own confidence and comfort zones. 386 00:28:13.240 --> 00:28:17.400 This is the problem we find ourselves in politically, socially, etc. 387 00:28:17.880 --> 00:28:20.920 Right now, we find ourselves in the midst of this 388 00:28:21.119 --> 00:28:26.680 as a constant, and the extremes are growing more and 389 00:28:26.799 --> 00:28:32.799 more starkly and uniquely available as the only options in 390 00:28:32.880 --> 00:28:37.640 any circumstance when there's a lot of things in between. 391 00:28:38.880 --> 00:28:42.039 You know, much like the concept of I watched a 392 00:28:42.079 --> 00:28:44.480 guy you know, George will say, I don't believe there 393 00:28:44.480 --> 00:28:46.799 are people that have a problem with a four hundred 394 00:28:46.799 --> 00:28:52.640 dollars disaster that doesn't exist. Now, this guy thinks that 395 00:28:52.680 --> 00:28:57.200 way because it doesn't exist for him, But he's trying 396 00:28:57.240 --> 00:29:00.200 to make a general statement about the rest of the world. 397 00:29:00.240 --> 00:29:03.240 Simply because you experienced it a certain way does not 398 00:29:03.400 --> 00:29:06.240 mean that the entirety of the world will experience it 399 00:29:06.359 --> 00:29:11.160 in a similar fashion or exactly the same way. Plus, 400 00:29:12.440 --> 00:29:16.960 he obviously don't live among the majority of us, and 401 00:29:17.000 --> 00:29:19.920