Speaker 1: Height sixteen fifty five kerrc DE talk station. Better a
Speaker 1: few minutes late than never. Welcome to the inside scoop Ladition,
Speaker 1: Oliver Lane Lennonbia chief to talk about. Well, you're up
Speaker 1: on the brink of war. Welcome to the morning show, Oliver.
Speaker 1: It's a pleasure to have you on.
Speaker 2: I'm London story to delay, but glad to be on them.
Speaker 1: Oh, like I said, better late than never, I was
Speaker 1: just going on a little bit of a spleen vent.
Speaker 1: We the United States of America have given Ukraine these
Speaker 1: longer range missiles which have thus far been launched into
Speaker 1: the interior of Russia. But it requires US Armie personnel
Speaker 1: or military personnel to operate them, given the security clearance
Speaker 1: and all the other information they need from the United
Speaker 1: States military. So we are actively engaged in war right now.
Speaker 1: What's the point of this when those missiles typically get
Speaker 1: shot down by the the Russia's version of the Iron Dome.
Speaker 1: And are we really on the brink of war with
Speaker 1: this activity? Oliver?
Speaker 2: Well, there's so many things here to which we could
Speaker 2: append allegedly. Indeed, you say that these missiles can only
Speaker 2: be fired with assistance.
Speaker 3: From US troops.
Speaker 2: I do believe that to be true, but I don't
Speaker 2: think we've ever had exact confirmation of that. However, that
Speaker 2: is in line with what we know about the other
Speaker 2: missile systems that have been given to Ukraine, for instance
Speaker 2: by the United Kingdom the storm Shadow, a very potent
Speaker 2: bunker buster missile, and also the Skulp Upper by the French,
Speaker 2: very similar system, and in terms of them being shot down, well, a.
Speaker 3: Lot of this we have to rely on Russian claims.
Speaker 2: And I was looking at yesterday almost like a classic
Speaker 2: day in this conflict, where we have the Ukrainians on
Speaker 2: one side boasting that they had these fantastic strikes against
Speaker 2: Russian airfields, Russian military installations, but complaining of course that
Speaker 2: the Russians are bombing civilians. Then on the other hand
Speaker 2: from Russian state media, you have the boast that they
Speaker 2: have struck successfully Ukrainian airfields and Ukrainian military installations and
Speaker 2: complaining of course that Ukraine is bombing pavilion Pavilian places
Speaker 2: in Russia as well. So we really do have to
Speaker 2: rely and of course both sides of course saying those
Speaker 2: stripes the enemy claims they were ineffective. We shot down
Speaker 2: all the missals, we shot down all the drones, So
Speaker 2: I think we do have to take with a pinch
Speaker 2: of stalt the claim that Russia is shooting down all
Speaker 2: of these missiles. Some inevitably will always get through and
Speaker 2: attack ems.
Speaker 3: As it's called. The Army Capital Missile.
Speaker 2: System, which is what is now being fired into the
Speaker 2: Russian interior, is a modern, sophisticated US weapon system, so
Speaker 2: we will expect it to achieve some stripe. But you know,
Speaker 2: you're talking about the escalation that we're seeing here allegedly,
Speaker 2: what does this mean for us? And I think the
Speaker 2: really sort of key thing to think about here is
Speaker 2: how is Russia going to be interpreting this and how
Speaker 2: do we feel about it, particularly in the light of
Speaker 2: the US presidential election. I know, just a real change
Speaker 2: in the tone of Russia's coverage of the Ukraine War
Speaker 2: and the US involvement.
Speaker 3: Of it as soon as the election results were in.
Speaker 2: And I know it's a bit kealy ready, and I
Speaker 2: apologize to that.
Speaker 3: They used to call it kremlinology back in the Cold War.
Speaker 1: Do you remember that?
Speaker 2: Yeah, long long time ago now, And I think, but
Speaker 2: what I'm trying to divine is this, I think there's
Speaker 2: an idea inside the Kremlin that actually the Biden era
Speaker 2: is over, and even if Biden is doing stuff that
Speaker 2: is not strictly logical or wise, like signing off on
Speaker 2: these sticks, when actually for months and years, the very
Speaker 2: clear Biden White House line has been this is dangerous
Speaker 2: as an escalation, we probably shouldn't do this. And then
Speaker 2: as soon as he loses the election, he changes his mind,
Speaker 2: or whoever is in charge of Joe Biden changed their mind.
Speaker 2: And I just wonder whether there's a view inside the
Speaker 2: Kremlin which is okay, we just got to put up
Speaker 2: with it for two and a half months, and then
Speaker 2: we can speak to somebody who is saying, aka President
Speaker 2: Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: You know, I think that's a very thoughtful and excellent
Speaker 1: analysis because clearly, and in your riot, I mean you
Speaker 1: sort of in passing reference something that we talk about
Speaker 1: all the time here in the United States, which is
Speaker 1: Joe Biden's not in charge of Joe Biden. Somebody has
Speaker 1: made this decision on his behalf. Now is it designed
Speaker 1: to screw around with in advance of Trump taking office,
Speaker 1: mess with the upcoming Trump administration, which to me I
Speaker 1: find absolutely immoral, horrific, and that anyone would do that
Speaker 1: just to at as a measure of spite, put tens
Speaker 1: of thousands or hundreds of thousands of people's lives at
Speaker 1: risk just because they don't like the having lost the election.
Speaker 1: I just hope that is not the case, but it
Speaker 1: sort of seems that way. But if you're looking at it,
Speaker 1: as you point out, from the Kremlin standpoint, kremlinology great
Speaker 1: line from the past. If you're looking at it from
Speaker 1: Putin's standpoint, it would be wise to just say, all right,
Speaker 1: all right, all right, we can manage this situation. Will
Speaker 1: take a wait and see approach. If they shoot some
Speaker 1: missiles at As, we'll try our best to knock him
Speaker 1: out of the sky. But this war is not going
Speaker 1: to go away anytime soon. So let's just take a
Speaker 1: wait and see approach. Because Donald Trump has promised he's
Speaker 1: going to solve it, and let's see what he proposes.
Speaker 1: Because I presume any resolution of this war, and Oliver
Speaker 1: correct me if you think I'm wrong, is going to
Speaker 1: be at least some land concessions to the Russians.
Speaker 2: Well, that's definitely an option that's on the table. And
Speaker 2: there's been all sorts of discussion, a lot of inks
Speaker 2: bill over what President Trump's options might be, but the
Speaker 2: fact is past and future President Trump really hasn't shown
Speaker 2: his hand in terms of what his plan is to
Speaker 2: bring peace. And of course I think it's fair to
Speaker 2: say that actually he won this election in part on
Speaker 2: a platform of peace, which is I think it's a
Speaker 2: great thing actually for America that people will actually vote
Speaker 2: on something.
Speaker 3: It's so fundamentally important as that.
Speaker 2: But he hasn't told us what the plan is, and
Speaker 2: there's clearly a good reason for that. But in terms
Speaker 2: of where it could go, yes, of course there's a
Speaker 2: discussion of a territory slot, and that being the case,
Speaker 2: I hate to say it, like I hate to see
Speaker 2: my friends lose, but Ukraine is kind of running out
Speaker 2: of time on that because I think it's dangerous what
Speaker 2: they did counter invading Russia. There's no doubt that is
Speaker 2: really bruly escalatory. And when I thought they'd done it,
Speaker 2: I went ooh, criky, where's this going to go? But
Speaker 2: in terms of having it, when the negotiating table finally
Speaker 2: comes and Presidents Trubb be sitting at ahead of that
Speaker 2: table and Presidents of Lengthsky is sitting opposite President Pussin,
Speaker 2: I guess.
Speaker 3: May may or may not happen.
Speaker 2: Having a few hundred square miles of Russian territory in
Speaker 2: your hand is going to do you some good.
Speaker 1: Fair enough, fair enough. From a military strategic standpoint, I
Speaker 1: don't know that it's doing the Ukrainians much good. But
Speaker 1: in a in a treaty and in a resolution standpoint,
Speaker 1: may provide enough leverage that they can save some face
Speaker 1: giving up some territory in Ukraine, most notably the territory
Speaker 1: that's occupied by people who are predominantly leaning Russia. Anyway,
Speaker 1: real quick here, I guess the other component of the
Speaker 1: fog of war, which you very clearly pointed out in
Speaker 1: terms of are we really hitting that? Are they really
Speaker 1: hitting this? We don't know. It just seems to me
Speaker 1: that after all this time, the Ukrainians are going to
Speaker 1: run out of young men fighting the war, and that
Speaker 1: seems to be one of the biggest challenges that they
Speaker 1: have right now. Absent fresh boots on the ground, how
Speaker 1: are the Ukrainians going to maintain the battlefront?
Speaker 3: Well, this is a real problem.
Speaker 2: And if you look at the Russians having suddenly invited
Speaker 2: their friends in North Korea ye join the battle, I
Speaker 2: guess it's a problem that they're facing as well. So
Speaker 2: Ukraine I think approached this war when it started quite rationally,
Speaker 2: and it's a cruel decision for any politician to have
Speaker 2: to make. But when they started, I mean, we're going
Speaker 2: to call it conscriptions as conscription, but it's I think
Speaker 2: it's close enough for us to use that as shorthand
Speaker 2: when they started bringing people into the military by hook
Speaker 2: or by crook at the beginning of this war, they
Speaker 2: actually started much further up the population pyramid. I believe
Speaker 2: even now, the average age of the Ukrainian soldiers in
Speaker 2: their late thirties or early forties. And when you see
Speaker 2: those photographs of active units in the field, a lot
Speaker 2: of them are grizzled, bearded old men. And they've never
Speaker 2: really made a comment on this as such in terms
Speaker 2: of explaining their thinking, and I'm aware of but looking
Speaker 2: at it from the outside, I strongly suspect this is
Speaker 2: because they have an understanding that Ukraine has a finite
Speaker 2: number of young men, as frankly all western countries do.
Speaker 2: We're experiencing a demographic.
Speaker 3: Collapse all across the wear and I.
Speaker 2: Suspect they looked at them and said, well, the guys who
Speaker 2: still chance of having a family in the future, We're
Speaker 2: going to call those up last, and I believe that
Speaker 2: will happened, and that counts in Ukraine's favor in terms
Speaker 2: of like the core of your question, let's be honest,
Speaker 2: is how long do they really have to run with
Speaker 2: this conflict until it's not just a matter of you know,
Speaker 2: is Donald Trump going to stop stending missiles? Is the
Speaker 2: European Union going to run out of money to keep
Speaker 2: the war machine running? It's when are they going to
Speaker 2: run out of bodies? Which is it's a horrible question
Speaker 2: to have to contemplate. But this goes back again to
Speaker 2: your your story of this or your point.
Speaker 3: About the fog of war, which is absolutely right.
Speaker 2: I cannot think of a conflict that I have covered
Speaker 2: or researched in my time, either as a journalist or
Speaker 2: was an academic before that where the fog war was
Speaker 2: so great And actually we have very poor information.
Speaker 3: From both sides.
Speaker 2: In most wars you can rely on at least one side,
Speaker 2: I mean small wars, not generally you do get one
Speaker 2: your reliable picture of what's happening, and that's it's not
Speaker 2: been so great in the Ukraine War.
Speaker 3: Obviously, I don't feel like I can really trust anything
Speaker 3: that Kremlin has to to say.
Speaker 2: I think you'd have to be mad to do so, right,
Speaker 2: But also, like Ukraine is a is in a absolutely
Speaker 2: generational wall.
Speaker 3: It is it is a it's a fundamental question whether
Speaker 3: that country will continue to exist.
Speaker 2: So I don't exactly blame them for doing the propaganda
Speaker 2: game that they've done, because they have to do that
Speaker 2: to keep themselves on the wall.
Speaker 3: But my god, it makes it hard for the rest.
Speaker 2: Of us and the rest of the world to really
Speaker 2: have a clear understanding of like, really, how many casualties
Speaker 2: have they actually had, how many of those were killed casualties,
Speaker 2: how many could return.
Speaker 3: To the front line. You know, I don't want to
Speaker 3: call it lies. That sounds very uncharitable and very unkind,
Speaker 3: but we do not have a good picture.
Speaker 1: Well, they've got to maintain some measure of propaganda to
Speaker 1: keep the idea of continuing to give them arms in play.
Speaker 1: Fascinating Oliver Lane, your wonderful job. I appreciate the time
Speaker 1: you spent my listeners me and I recommend as always
Speaker 1: people bookmark Breitbart b R E I T b a
Speaker 1: art dot com for Oliver Lane, his writing and everybody
Speaker 1: else there, keep up the great work. I look forward
Speaker 1: to having you on the program again real soon.
Speaker 3: Thanks coming on staff, appreciate it.
Speaker 1: Eight twenty seven Daniel Davis Deep dive.
Speaker 3: Come up next.
Speaker 1: We'll continue this war related conversation after these brief words.
Speaker 1: Fifty five KRC