WEBVTT

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<v Speaker 1>Height sixteen fifty five kerrc DE talk station. Better a

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<v Speaker 1>few minutes late than never. Welcome to the inside scoop Ladition,

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<v Speaker 1>Oliver Lane Lennonbia chief to talk about. Well, you're up

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<v Speaker 1>on the brink of war. Welcome to the morning show, Oliver.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a pleasure to have you on.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm London story to delay, but glad to be on them.

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<v Speaker 1>Oh, like I said, better late than never, I was

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<v Speaker 1>just going on a little bit of a spleen vent.

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<v Speaker 1>We the United States of America have given Ukraine these

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<v Speaker 1>longer range missiles which have thus far been launched into

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<v Speaker 1>the interior of Russia. But it requires US Armie personnel

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<v Speaker 1>or military personnel to operate them, given the security clearance

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<v Speaker 1>and all the other information they need from the United

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<v Speaker 1>States military. So we are actively engaged in war right now.

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<v Speaker 1>What's the point of this when those missiles typically get

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<v Speaker 1>shot down by the the Russia's version of the Iron Dome.

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<v Speaker 1>And are we really on the brink of war with

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<v Speaker 1>this activity? Oliver?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, there's so many things here to which we could

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<v Speaker 2>append allegedly. Indeed, you say that these missiles can only

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<v Speaker 2>be fired with assistance.

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<v Speaker 3>From US troops.

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<v Speaker 2>I do believe that to be true, but I don't

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<v Speaker 2>think we've ever had exact confirmation of that. However, that

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<v Speaker 2>is in line with what we know about the other

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<v Speaker 2>missile systems that have been given to Ukraine, for instance

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<v Speaker 2>by the United Kingdom the storm Shadow, a very potent

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<v Speaker 2>bunker buster missile, and also the Skulp Upper by the French,

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<v Speaker 2>very similar system, and in terms of them being shot down, well, a.

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<v Speaker 3>Lot of this we have to rely on Russian claims.

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<v Speaker 2>And I was looking at yesterday almost like a classic

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<v Speaker 2>day in this conflict, where we have the Ukrainians on

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<v Speaker 2>one side boasting that they had these fantastic strikes against

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<v Speaker 2>Russian airfields, Russian military installations, but complaining of course that

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<v Speaker 2>the Russians are bombing civilians. Then on the other hand

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<v Speaker 2>from Russian state media, you have the boast that they

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<v Speaker 2>have struck successfully Ukrainian airfields and Ukrainian military installations and

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<v Speaker 2>complaining of course that Ukraine is bombing pavilion Pavilian places

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<v Speaker 2>in Russia as well. So we really do have to

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<v Speaker 2>rely and of course both sides of course saying those

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<v Speaker 2>stripes the enemy claims they were ineffective. We shot down

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<v Speaker 2>all the missals, we shot down all the drones, So

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<v Speaker 2>I think we do have to take with a pinch

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<v Speaker 2>of stalt the claim that Russia is shooting down all

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<v Speaker 2>of these missiles. Some inevitably will always get through and

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<v Speaker 2>attack ems.

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<v Speaker 3>As it's called. The Army Capital Missile.

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<v Speaker 2>System, which is what is now being fired into the

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<v Speaker 2>Russian interior, is a modern, sophisticated US weapon system, so

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<v Speaker 2>we will expect it to achieve some stripe. But you know,

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<v Speaker 2>you're talking about the escalation that we're seeing here allegedly,

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<v Speaker 2>what does this mean for us? And I think the

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<v Speaker 2>really sort of key thing to think about here is

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<v Speaker 2>how is Russia going to be interpreting this and how

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<v Speaker 2>do we feel about it, particularly in the light of

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<v Speaker 2>the US presidential election. I know, just a real change

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<v Speaker 2>in the tone of Russia's coverage of the Ukraine War

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<v Speaker 2>and the US involvement.

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<v Speaker 3>Of it as soon as the election results were in.

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<v Speaker 2>And I know it's a bit kealy ready, and I

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<v Speaker 2>apologize to that.

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<v Speaker 3>They used to call it kremlinology back in the Cold War.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you remember that?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, long long time ago now, And I think, but

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<v Speaker 2>what I'm trying to divine is this, I think there's

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<v Speaker 2>an idea inside the Kremlin that actually the Biden era

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<v Speaker 2>is over, and even if Biden is doing stuff that

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<v Speaker 2>is not strictly logical or wise, like signing off on

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<v Speaker 2>these sticks, when actually for months and years, the very

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<v Speaker 2>clear Biden White House line has been this is dangerous

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<v Speaker 2>as an escalation, we probably shouldn't do this. And then

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<v Speaker 2>as soon as he loses the election, he changes his mind,

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<v Speaker 2>or whoever is in charge of Joe Biden changed their mind.

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<v Speaker 2>And I just wonder whether there's a view inside the

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<v Speaker 2>Kremlin which is okay, we just got to put up

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<v Speaker 2>with it for two and a half months, and then

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<v Speaker 2>we can speak to somebody who is saying, aka President

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<v Speaker 2>Donald Trump.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, I think that's a very thoughtful and excellent

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<v Speaker 1>analysis because clearly, and in your riot, I mean you

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<v Speaker 1>sort of in passing reference something that we talk about

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<v Speaker 1>all the time here in the United States, which is

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<v Speaker 1>Joe Biden's not in charge of Joe Biden. Somebody has

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<v Speaker 1>made this decision on his behalf. Now is it designed

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<v Speaker 1>to screw around with in advance of Trump taking office,

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<v Speaker 1>mess with the upcoming Trump administration, which to me I

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<v Speaker 1>find absolutely immoral, horrific, and that anyone would do that

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<v Speaker 1>just to at as a measure of spite, put tens

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<v Speaker 1>of thousands or hundreds of thousands of people's lives at

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<v Speaker 1>risk just because they don't like the having lost the election.

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<v Speaker 1>I just hope that is not the case, but it

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<v Speaker 1>sort of seems that way. But if you're looking at it,

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<v Speaker 1>as you point out, from the Kremlin standpoint, kremlinology great

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<v Speaker 1>line from the past. If you're looking at it from

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<v Speaker 1>Putin's standpoint, it would be wise to just say, all right,

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<v Speaker 1>all right, all right, we can manage this situation. Will

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<v Speaker 1>take a wait and see approach. If they shoot some

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<v Speaker 1>missiles at As, we'll try our best to knock him

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<v Speaker 1>out of the sky. But this war is not going

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<v Speaker 1>to go away anytime soon. So let's just take a

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<v Speaker 1>wait and see approach. Because Donald Trump has promised he's

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<v Speaker 1>going to solve it, and let's see what he proposes.

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<v Speaker 1>Because I presume any resolution of this war, and Oliver

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<v Speaker 1>correct me if you think I'm wrong, is going to

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<v Speaker 1>be at least some land concessions to the Russians.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, that's definitely an option that's on the table. And

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<v Speaker 2>there's been all sorts of discussion, a lot of inks

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<v Speaker 2>bill over what President Trump's options might be, but the

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<v Speaker 2>fact is past and future President Trump really hasn't shown

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<v Speaker 2>his hand in terms of what his plan is to

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<v Speaker 2>bring peace. And of course I think it's fair to

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<v Speaker 2>say that actually he won this election in part on

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<v Speaker 2>a platform of peace, which is I think it's a

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<v Speaker 2>great thing actually for America that people will actually vote

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<v Speaker 2>on something.

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<v Speaker 3>It's so fundamentally important as that.

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<v Speaker 2>But he hasn't told us what the plan is, and

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<v Speaker 2>there's clearly a good reason for that. But in terms

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<v Speaker 2>of where it could go, yes, of course there's a

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<v Speaker 2>discussion of a territory slot, and that being the case,

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<v Speaker 2>I hate to say it, like I hate to see

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<v Speaker 2>my friends lose, but Ukraine is kind of running out

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<v Speaker 2>of time on that because I think it's dangerous what

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<v Speaker 2>they did counter invading Russia. There's no doubt that is

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<v Speaker 2>really bruly escalatory. And when I thought they'd done it,

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<v Speaker 2>I went ooh, criky, where's this going to go? But

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<v Speaker 2>in terms of having it, when the negotiating table finally

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<v Speaker 2>comes and Presidents Trubb be sitting at ahead of that

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<v Speaker 2>table and Presidents of Lengthsky is sitting opposite President Pussin,

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<v Speaker 2>I guess.

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<v Speaker 3>May may or may not happen.

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<v Speaker 2>Having a few hundred square miles of Russian territory in

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<v Speaker 2>your hand is going to do you some good.

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<v Speaker 1>Fair enough, fair enough. From a military strategic standpoint, I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know that it's doing the Ukrainians much good. But

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<v Speaker 1>in a in a treaty and in a resolution standpoint,

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<v Speaker 1>may provide enough leverage that they can save some face

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<v Speaker 1>giving up some territory in Ukraine, most notably the territory

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<v Speaker 1>that's occupied by people who are predominantly leaning Russia. Anyway,

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<v Speaker 1>real quick here, I guess the other component of the

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<v Speaker 1>fog of war, which you very clearly pointed out in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of are we really hitting that? Are they really

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<v Speaker 1>hitting this? We don't know. It just seems to me

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<v Speaker 1>that after all this time, the Ukrainians are going to

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<v Speaker 1>run out of young men fighting the war, and that

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<v Speaker 1>seems to be one of the biggest challenges that they

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<v Speaker 1>have right now. Absent fresh boots on the ground, how

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<v Speaker 1>are the Ukrainians going to maintain the battlefront?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, this is a real problem.

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<v Speaker 2>And if you look at the Russians having suddenly invited

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<v Speaker 2>their friends in North Korea ye join the battle, I

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<v Speaker 2>guess it's a problem that they're facing as well. So

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<v Speaker 2>Ukraine I think approached this war when it started quite rationally,

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<v Speaker 2>and it's a cruel decision for any politician to have

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<v Speaker 2>to make. But when they started, I mean, we're going

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<v Speaker 2>to call it conscriptions as conscription, but it's I think

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<v Speaker 2>it's close enough for us to use that as shorthand

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<v Speaker 2>when they started bringing people into the military by hook

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<v Speaker 2>or by crook at the beginning of this war, they

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<v Speaker 2>actually started much further up the population pyramid. I believe

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<v Speaker 2>even now, the average age of the Ukrainian soldiers in

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<v Speaker 2>their late thirties or early forties. And when you see

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<v Speaker 2>those photographs of active units in the field, a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of them are grizzled, bearded old men. And they've never

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<v Speaker 2>really made a comment on this as such in terms

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<v Speaker 2>of explaining their thinking, and I'm aware of but looking

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<v Speaker 2>at it from the outside, I strongly suspect this is

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<v Speaker 2>because they have an understanding that Ukraine has a finite

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<v Speaker 2>number of young men, as frankly all western countries do.

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<v Speaker 2>We're experiencing a demographic.

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<v Speaker 3>Collapse all across the wear and I.

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<v Speaker 2>Suspect they looked at them and said, well, the guys who

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<v Speaker 2>still chance of having a family in the future, We're

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<v Speaker 2>going to call those up last, and I believe that

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<v Speaker 2>will happened, and that counts in Ukraine's favor in terms

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<v Speaker 2>of like the core of your question, let's be honest,

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<v Speaker 2>is how long do they really have to run with

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<v Speaker 2>this conflict until it's not just a matter of you know,

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<v Speaker 2>is Donald Trump going to stop stending missiles? Is the

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<v Speaker 2>European Union going to run out of money to keep

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<v Speaker 2>the war machine running? It's when are they going to

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<v Speaker 2>run out of bodies? Which is it's a horrible question

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<v Speaker 2>to have to contemplate. But this goes back again to

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<v Speaker 2>your your story of this or your point.

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<v Speaker 3>About the fog of war, which is absolutely right.

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<v Speaker 2>I cannot think of a conflict that I have covered

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<v Speaker 2>or researched in my time, either as a journalist or

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<v Speaker 2>was an academic before that where the fog war was

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<v Speaker 2>so great And actually we have very poor information.

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<v Speaker 3>From both sides.

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<v Speaker 2>In most wars you can rely on at least one side,

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<v Speaker 2>I mean small wars, not generally you do get one

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<v Speaker 2>your reliable picture of what's happening, and that's it's not

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<v Speaker 2>been so great in the Ukraine War.

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<v Speaker 3>Obviously, I don't feel like I can really trust anything

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<v Speaker 3>that Kremlin has to to say.

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<v Speaker 2>I think you'd have to be mad to do so, right,

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<v Speaker 2>But also, like Ukraine is a is in a absolutely

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<v Speaker 2>generational wall.

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<v Speaker 3>It is it is a it's a fundamental question whether

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<v Speaker 3>that country will continue to exist.

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<v Speaker 2>So I don't exactly blame them for doing the propaganda

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<v Speaker 2>game that they've done, because they have to do that

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<v Speaker 2>to keep themselves on the wall.

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<v Speaker 3>But my god, it makes it hard for the rest.

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<v Speaker 2>Of us and the rest of the world to really

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<v Speaker 2>have a clear understanding of like, really, how many casualties

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<v Speaker 2>have they actually had, how many of those were killed casualties,

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<v Speaker 2>how many could return.

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<v Speaker 3>To the front line. You know, I don't want to

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<v Speaker 3>call it lies. That sounds very uncharitable and very unkind,

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<v Speaker 3>but we do not have a good picture.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, they've got to maintain some measure of propaganda to

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<v Speaker 1>keep the idea of continuing to give them arms in play.

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<v Speaker 1>Fascinating Oliver Lane, your wonderful job. I appreciate the time

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<v Speaker 1>you spent my listeners me and I recommend as always

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<v Speaker 1>people bookmark Breitbart b R E I T b a

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<v Speaker 1>art dot com for Oliver Lane, his writing and everybody

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<v Speaker 1>else there, keep up the great work. I look forward

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<v Speaker 1>to having you on the program again real soon.

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<v Speaker 3>Thanks coming on staff, appreciate it.

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<v Speaker 1>Eight twenty seven Daniel Davis Deep dive.

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<v Speaker 3>Come up next.

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<v Speaker 1>We'll continue this war related conversation after these brief words.

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<v Speaker 1>Fifty five KRC