Speaker 1: It's been pretty interesting to see how resilient gold in
particular has been. It's still sitting above as we record this.
I don't want to date it, but as we record this,
gold is still holding that five thousand dollars level. Gold
and silver having their moment, I mean, what a moment
they've had over the last couple of months.
Speaker 2: You're listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, where you
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Speaker 3: And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial
Survival Network. I'm your host, Carry Lutz and special trade
for you today. Someone has been on the show a
number of times over the years, uncannily been correct and
certainly has been a master strategist as far as the
market's concerned. I'm talking about Jerry Robinson. Follow the Money
dot com. Jerry, it's great to have you back on
the show, and it's overdue. I mean, the recent movement
of gold and silver's taken the so called experts by surprise.
Speaker 1: Indeed, thank you carry for the invite to be here.
I appreciate your work. Yeah, gold and silver having their moment,
I mean, what a moment they've had over the last
couple of months.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so right now they're hitting some volatility, which is
really to be expected. Especially silver. At one hundred and
twenty dollars, it literally went straight up parabolic, so there
had to be a crash. Fortunately, if you're holding physical,
you don't really care. If you're in the paper, then yeah,
you know, I'm in both, but out and out I'm
a physical bull. But you know, gold it's still like
close to fifty five hundred bucks. Where does it all end?
Speaker 1: Well, it's been pretty interesting to see how resilient gold
in particular has been. It's still sitting above as we
record this. I don't want to date it, but as
we record this, gold is still holding that five thousand
dollars level, even though it you know, rallied up to
fifty six hundred, pulled back to. In fact, I have
a chart.
Speaker 3: Maybe we should show this. Let's let's go to the videotape.
Speaker 1: Sounds great, let me pull this up. Yeah, here we go.
This is on our website follow themoney dot com slash
charts where we can come down and look at some
different charts. But let's go to the Gold chart and
you'll see here what we were, what we're seeing, and
hopefully that's big enough. Can you see that carry as
i'd perfect good? Well, you can see here that you
know we had we get all the way up at
one point to about fifty six hundred. I'm sure many
of your listeners and viewers are familiar with that rally
that was just so incredibly breathless. The pullback, interestingly brought
us back to the rising fifty day moving average, and
despite an intra day cross below it, it never closed
below it, and so we actually on a daily basis,
and so it's held. There was one moment when we
came down and found support there again, and so that
fifty day moving average really working out well for gold,
holding on really well, and we're holding that five thousand
dollars now. The thing that has me concerned as far
as the near term, not longer term, I'm like you,
I think that we are just living in this constant
state of debasement, currency debasement. I wrote about it in
my book bankruptcy of our nation, which has been around
for a long time. All of this stuff is in there,
talking about the debasement of fiat currency, the fractional reserve banking,
the national debt, all of this stuff. Well, it's all
weighing upon the dollar. And of course gold and silver,
but particularly gold is a huge beneficiary of poor monetary policies.
And this particular chart here kind of tells the story.
You'll notice from a technical perspective whenever you are watching
a chart, this is a weekly chart, and again maybe
a little difficult to see there, but you'll see that
there are some long upper wicks that develop on these candlesticks,
and no longer that that upper wick is, the more
prohibitive that area can be from a technical standpoint as
far as overcoming it. So, for example, we hit this peak,
let me zoom in just a bit more there. We
hit that peak right there at about thirty five hundred
back in early twenty twenty five, and you'll notice that
we didn't actually get back above it for several months.
Something similar here back in early twenty four we had
this long wick and then it took us a while,
you know, several months to get past it go back
to twenty twenty two. We had a long upper wick
there and it took us, you know, practically a year
and a half maybe even more to get past it.
So this is the longest weekly upper wick that we
have on the chart, on this chart going back for
the last five or six years. And so this one's
really long. This one is just going you know, not
that we can't just overcome it quickly, but typically it
takes some time. So from a technical perspective, you know,
my view is that we do have more time to accumulate,
if that's what your goal is. I now, whether this
is like a twenty eleven rally and they kind of
blow off top and then we don't get back there
for fifteen years, I'm not of that opinion. Because we
are in year Are we still in year one? No,
we're in year two of the Trump presidency, right, this
is the year two.
Speaker 3: H So back in January twentieth, there you go.
Speaker 1: So we just entered year two and so we have,
you know, a few more years going into the second
Trump term. My thesis was he's like the best president
for gold. I mean, can you find a better president
for gold? I don't think you can find one. No
one really drives up gold like and go back to
the first term when Trump was in office, it was
great for gold. So the point being is that this
because Trump is going to be in office for three
more years and I can't imagine the chaos levels going
down at all. I can't even imagine what that would
look like. This is only a there's a premium built
in for Trump.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 1: Part of the reason we saw it pull back so much,
Carrie was it came on the announcement. And there's arguments
about this. It's arguable whether this is the actual reason
it came down, But there was a huge announcement when
it came down, and that was that Trump had selected
Kevin Warsh as the nominee for the Federal Reserved replace
chair Jerome Powell. Well, the idea around Worsh was that
he was an inflation awk. This is how he's been viewed,
this is how he's kind of positioned himself over the years.
Also that you know that he was eager to raise
interest rates, you know, and so yeah, and so overall,
the idea of gold having this, you know, the FED
independence being challenged, Worsh seemed like a safe pick. It
seemed like he was very Out of all the guys
that you could have picked, this guy seemed to have
perhaps the most spine. However, if you just scratch the
surface a little deeper, you'll find that mister Walsh has
really flipped the script over the last year. So as
he's gotten closer to Trump's orbit, even more close to
Trump's orbit, he's definitely toned down the hawkish language. And
I suspect that we'll get at least, you know, three
rate cuts out of mister worsh well, three rate cuts
this year, let me put it that way. Whether he'll
be delivering all of them or whether Powell will do
one and he does two, who knows. But I suspect
about three rate cuts, And so I think it was
overdone on gold. I think there was a premium driving
up gold due to the fear of the loss of
the independence of the Fed. Warsh seemed to put a
band aid on that fear, and so therefore that premium
was knocked out of the price of gold. But there's
always something else to worry about, as the markets so
well know, and so I suspect that we'll find another
premium to price into gold, and so that's why I
don't think gold is going down the way that some
might think it does. It's still if you look at
this monthly chart, it's still just going up into the right.
So yeah, that's a long upper wick on the monthly
chart there, But I don't think it's the end. I'll
just put it that way, all right. I see your
point and agreed. So what else we got here? We
can look Also, you had mentioned silver. Let me come
down to the silver charts, their cordon sort of down
here a little bit silver obviously got more to the
wind knocked out of it. One of the key moving
averages that I've watched on silver for years, in addition
to the two hundred and the fifty, is the thirty SMA.
This just tends to be an area where silver is
very sensitive. It'll tend to pivot, be a key pivot point.
You'll see how it kind of held up at that
thirty SMA right there back in October November. It got
tangled up at back, you know, last summer. But we
really slice below it in a meaningful way in late December,
our late January, I'm sorry, and you can see that
the damage up there. I mean we went from one
twenty down to sixty four. I want to say, that's
like an intro. Yeah, it was nuts, I mean, just
incredible decline so quickly. But you know, again, Carrie, you
probably can speak to this as well. You could see
it coming. I mean, it was clear. I mean I
often tell my students think about how you feel whenever
you're in one of these moments. I can think back
many times of different assets that I would be holding
and I would see them going up, and then they
would start getting irrational as they were going up, and
you begin to feel begin to feel something. And I
often tell my students you really pay attention to those
things that you begin to feel, because once you start
to feel that, once you start to see it. I'm
talking about people who have experienced that's just people who
you know, they don't know anything about it, but you
have some experience, and you've been doing this for a while.
When it you know, when you start to feel it
and it's really starting to get pretty wild, that's usually
a big sun. Every time I've felt that, going back
through the years, it's usually been one or two weeks.
Oh it's you know, right before the end, you know, uh,
and it's usually right around the time when big major
outlets like the Wall Street Journal are like it's time
to buy silver, you know, or or it'll be a
or you know, or they'll be you know, seeing it.
It'll be like, it's time to buy gold. How do
we buy gold? You know, it's like already up at
the you know. So usually you get all you know,
the the.
Speaker 4: The the cab driver's given you advice and you know,
we've been here and so so you definitely felt that
with silver on the way up, and it got pretty
crazy there in January, so we knew we were due for.
Speaker 1: A pullback this one. I'm not as confident that it's
going to get back to a new old time high
as quickly as gold, but I do think there's still
plenty of upside for silver as well. The industrial demand,
you know, case in point.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so silver is a lot different than it was
in twenty eleven and in the nineteen eighty with the
Hunt Brothers, right, it's way way different. We've got basically
structural shortage, increasing demand on the industrial side, and to
some extent, increasing demand on the on the investment side.
So you know that it became parabolic. So anytime you
see a parabolic move, it doesn't matter what it's in,
it's going to get slammed, whether it's bitcoin, whatever, And
we're just seeing it now. But the fundamental demand side
of silver not.
Speaker 1: Changing, Yeah, I mean not really. I mean you've got
really sustainable investment industrial demand going out for as far
as we can see, barring just some sort of black
swan event that takes down global demand, which could happen.
You know, we need to be prepared for that. That's why,
that's why we want to be diversified. You don't put
all your money into gold. You don't put all your
money into so, you don't put all the money into bitcoin.
You spread it out. You got to spread out the
weal if you never know what kind of evil will
come upon the land. As the old quote says. You know,
if you look at silver s and P ratio for example,
you know we're not anywhere near where we were back
in say twenty eleven. We're still way below it. But
you know, for a while there, I think people were
starting to give up on silver, right, I mean, silver
had just gone so long where you know there were
I mean you was looking saying, is this thing going
to do anything, and sure enough it came back and
played its role in an incredible way. I think that's
the other thing important thing to keep in mind about
the metals too, is that you know, even though you
have that core position that I hold physical gold, physical silver,
I call it portfolio insurance. I usually keep you know,
ten percent ten to maybe fifteen percent at most in
you know, hard assets like that, barring you know, and
I consider real estate to be a hard asset as well,
but I consider that another bucket. So you know, I
have some money in real estate. I got some money
in stocks, I got some money in hard assets. I
got some money in crypto. I got some money him
own businesses and invest in other people's business. So you
just got to spread it out. And I think that
the danger is for those who just go all in.
You know, they watch a video online or they read
an article and they say, oh, I just this is
a can't lose investment, and then they just put all
of it in, all the chips in, and then when
that blows up, they think, well, investing doesn't work. I
guess I'm not going to invest anymore. Well that's not
how it works. You know. We need to be spread out,
So for everybody listening, you know, I think that's one
of the best things you can do. It's some of
the oldest advice out there, but you know, it really
is true. You really want to be spread out. Even
even if you think that the United States government, you know,
is bankrupt like I do. Even if you think that
there's no way out for the United States government, there's
still always these unknowns that you just can't account for,
you know, like AI, like AI perfect example, right, and
that was really you know, AI was a huge part
of the silver rally because of all the expectations the
silver going into data centers already had this huge demand
from solar, which is growing, by the way, in every
other country except the United States. Actually, the United States
is actually doing pretty well. I've been surprised to see
many renewable energy stocks actually thriving over the last couple
of years, which is kind of interesting. But yeah, you know,
definitely we're still seeing the build out of renewable energy
all over the world, and that's huge for silver. If
we turn to say the S and P or you know,
just looking at the broader US stock market, you know,
starting to starting to get a little top heavy here,
even though the rally is not too terribly old. I mean,
if we go back and we see the rally, it
really kind of kicks off in the wake of the
twenty and twenty two crash. She had that terrible time
in twenty twenty two where everything was going down, it
seemed like, and then as we enter twenty twenty three
and the rate hikes stopped, you know, things like the
S and P five hundred, you know, started to go
back up, and they've been really trending higher since the
end of twenty twenty two, albeit with some pullbacks like
the big you know, tariff tantrum that we had back
at the beginning of twenty twenty five. But you can
see since that time, we hit like forty eight hundred
on the S and P back in April, and it's
not even a year later and we've already gone up
to like seven hundred. So I mean, it's been really
an incredible rally, and you can see we broke out
above that two hundred day moving average, you know what
was that That was like maybe nine months ago or so,
not even nine months, So you know, it's not like
it's that terribly of an old of an uptrend here
kind of got reset there, So we're not I don't
view the S and P five hundred or the the
overall stock market as do for a you know, getting
cut in half again. I think we're I see earnings
power really big. Over the last couple of years, the
S and P earnings have been just incredible and that's
what drives stock prices. We've also had some volatility in
the tech space. We've seen software stocks get hit kind
of take some valuations down. So overall, as we look
to the end of the year, I'm bullish on the
broader market indices, the NAS back one hundred, the S
and P five hundred, and the weakness that we see.
I mean, take a look here at the S and P.
I mean, it's still trading above that gold line that's
the right rising two hundred day moving average, you know,
and zaia break down. Yeah, until you break down below that,
I mean, you're you know, you're you're doing pretty pretty fine.
If you break down below that, well then you know
you might have some some pain a head. But over
all again, yeah, you're right. And and for us, I
mean the way we approach this is we just DCA
so we'll dollar cost average into our favorite stocks, our
favorite ETFs, our favorite digital assets, our favorite hard assets,
and just just take it all in stride, be patient,
let patients have its work, and so S and P
five hundred right now, for example, if you look and
you look at the internals, you'll see that about sixty
seven percent of those stocks in the S and P
five hundred are above the two hundred day moving average.
That's bullish. So you'll market's still looking pretty darn good
right now. And I don't suspect this administration is going
to do anything but print. Uh, it's way out of problems.
So I don't think they're gonna I don't think they're
gonna pay they're not paying off the national debt. They're
not going to impose austerity. They're not going you know,
they're at least upon the markets. They're going to you know,
or upon investors. They're really just goosing the markets as
much as they can. And and I think we just
hit Dow fifty thousand the other day. Yeah, I saw Trump,
you know, made a real big deal about that. President
Trump said, hey, look doubt Dow fifty. I think that's
that's code you need to realize that you know that
that's something that's very important to him. It's part of
his legacy. He ties himself to that stock market more
than most presidents, and so therefore he's gonna he's going
to consider it a personal insult if your stock portfolio
starts to go down, He's going to worry about his legacy.
So so therefore, in so in some way you have
a little bit of extra insulation for your stock portfolio
from mister Trump because he does tie it so closely
to his legacy.
Speaker 3: Hey, well, not volatility. We're looking at higher volatility though
in the markets.
Speaker 1: Well sure, I mean it has been threatening to pop
up a little bit. I have a chart here we
can just look at real quickly volatility. Let me pull
this one up here. So volatility sitting in about twenty
twenty one or so, you can see that that really
big spike in volatility that came back in the tariffs.
You know, are we going to have some of these?
Speaker 3: Absolutely?
Speaker 1: To me though, again, these volatility spikes, anytime you get
above say twenty five on volatility, to me, it's a
great time for me. I'm not talking to everybody, but
for me, it's a great time. For me to double
up my dollar cost averaging or I go a little
more because because those moments don't last forever. And so
the more scary it feels to me, the more, you know.
Speaker 3: The more I was in the streets, right, absolutely, absolutely, yeah.
Speaker 1: And you have to learn it. You have to learn
it the hard way. I mean, you know, when I
started investing, Carrie, I was you. I was very afraid
so many years ago, probably two decades ago. Whenever I
really started getting heavily invested and trying to become more
of an investor, and I would get shaken out of
stuff so easy. I would, you know, I'd see a
headline and I'd scurry and sell and you know. And
so I've learned over time just to be more callous
and to be more to be less reactive, yea, and
to really take age. It comes with age. I mean,
you've got to take a few blows, You've got to
kind of see. And so now when that volatility gets high,
whereas in the past, I would be nervous and scared,
you know, today I'm like, hey, you know, there's my opportunity.
I've been waiting for this. This doesn't happen all the time.
Speaker 3: Great point. All right, interesting insights here into the markets.
We appreciate the tour Jerry, absolutely, yeah, So effectively metals
could be getting some resistance. But gold looks like the
political economic situation is bullish. Silver took such a hit
that it's going to take time to get back, you know,
it hit like a false breakout one twenty and then
a false crash. It's sixty four. So somewhere in between
those two numbers where we are kind of now, maybe
between seventy five to ninety five, probably where it's going
to be hanging around, there's seventy because to spread on it,
the volatility has been so huge.
Speaker 1: Well, and you can complain about that, huh. I mean
you and I talking about seventy five or ninety five
dollars silver. I mean too, you know five years ago
we be tickled, you know, to hear about it. So
it's it's got a bad range to be in.
Speaker 3: You know, hey, I started buying in the crash of
eight oh nine, and it went down, you know, most
of my physical cell bust or I forget what it
got eight eight to ten to ten bout you. I
remember buying that.
Speaker 1: I remember buying my very first silver piece. It was
at a pawn shop, uh, which I don't recommend you
buy him a pawn shops. But it was my very
first silver piece, and it was like two thousand and
three or four, and it was five dollars, you know,
it was just a five dollars silver round and that
was what the mark that was with the markup, you know,
and I thought, good night, how much how time is flown,
and how things have changed. You know. It got to
one hundred and twenty and I saw it five.
Speaker 3: It's crazy and it always does the same thing, but
this time again there's just not a lot of silver
above the ground. Actually, I'm putting together a special silver
report called, you know, living the Living, the silver backed Lifestyle.
And you know, the fact is back in seventy, I goad, Well,
let's go back to when silver was still money. In
sixty four, you could buy a gallon of gas for
two silver dimes and or maybe twenty five cents. It
did go down lower actually in the early seventies. I
remember with my father buying gas at Pathmark in New
Jersey at nineteen nine and twenty two nine for premium.
But now two dimes buys you. I don't have the
numbers in front of me, but basically buys you like
three or four gallons. So the real purchasing power of silver,
even though it's been suppressed and everything else and volatile,
has done nothing but go higher. If you look at
how many ounces of silver it would take to buy
a house in nineteen sixty, it was like eleven or
twelve thousand. Now the average house half a million, just
call it seventy. It's basically seven thousand ounces or seven
hundred ounces rather seven hundred seven thousand. So cost in
silver has actually gone down, which means a real purchasing
power has gone up, and the goal to silver ratio
everything else is kind of wonky. All of that's going
to be my report, So just shoot me an email.
It'll be on my substack for paid subscribers to get
an early early view of it, and a lot of
insights in there, you.
Speaker 1: Know, Carrie, right along those lines. If we have one
more minute, let me just show one more chart that
relates to that. Not only have we lost that purchasing
power in so many ways is immoral. The fact that
we have lost so much and for no purpose other
than the fact that the government just didn't want to,
you know, keep itself within the constraints of normal spending.
It wanted to you know, monetize debt, and it wanted
just to go on and on. So we've entered up
with this destruction and of our of our monetary value,
which hurts everybody, you know, kids, women, men, workers, you know,
as students. Everybody gets hit. But take a look at
this chart from the Economic Policy Institute, which I find
so interesting. And we've seen this reiterated so many times
over the last couple of years. It was the latest.
There was a Wall Street Journal report that came out
that's newer than this, that shows even more stark numbers.
But this just shows what happened to the growth and
productivity I you know, output versus compensation. And you'll notice
that that productivity in the country and compensation we're growing
at basically the same rate, you know, all the way
up until the nineteen early nineteen seventies. And it was
at that time whenever the dollar got split from gold
and from seven one got untethered, you know, yeah, August fifteenth,
he interrupted that Bonanza show, Nixon did and told us
about it. But then we see here that they begin
to separate, and so you begin to see the compensation
is not growing anymore, so your hourly rate, your wages
are not growing, but the productivity is going up. So,
in other words, the closer that you are, the closer
that you are to that printing press, the more money
you're making. And the further you weigh or you are
from that printing press, the less you're benefiting. So investors
are the only way for the little guy to get
ahead in this kind of funkymy where we it's quite
frankly immoral, is that you have to own assets. And
you simply have to own assets because they will go
up with the money printer, whereas your wages won't. And
people know that. But this is a graphic, you know,
this is a graphic proof that shows that it was
right at that same time, that nineteen seventy one time
period where we saw a lot of things break down,
not just our monetary value, you know.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and you know what average Shad just six pex
knows it from the value of his house going up. Yes,
absolutely so true, so true. Well where do we find
you these days, Jerry? Where is the best place? Carrie?
Speaker 1: Thank you for having me on followthemoney, dot com, whether
people are looking to become better investors, learning how to trade.
We have trading software, We do ongoing webcasts for our members,
we have a trading software. We've got all kinds of
stuff here and lots of free stuff podcasts and articles
and things like that at follow the Money dot com.
Speaker 3: All right, we appreciate that and appreciate you coming on
as always. Jerry, questions comments, shoot me an email kl
at carrieluts dot com we answer all questions and my
site Financial Survival Network dot com. But I totally switched
to substack because it's just so much easier managing the
whole thing myself, much less outside help needed, and just
a very powerful platform. So join fifty five thousand others
that are on our substack, and Jerry, we'll talk to
you again real soon.
Speaker 2: Thank you, Kerry, thanks for listening to Carrie Lutz's Financial
Survival Network, your solution to today's trying times. For the latest,
go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now
more than ever