Speaker 1: Fad in the public has been fantastic this year in
the NFL, hitting over sixty percent, and the public is
active again here in week fourteen. The six most public
games for the NFL this Sunday, coming up right here,
right now, HISUS Steve merrillwager Talk dot Com, right back
here on wager Talk TV. And as I mentioned, fad
in the public's worth great all season long, hitting over
sixty percent one again last week three and one against
the spread.
Speaker 2: But what's interesting is that.
Speaker 1: Last week all four public teams won outright, but only
one of the four covered the spread. And that's exactly
why long term fad in the public is a money maker,
and especially later in the season. We see this phenomenon
happen year after year as the points spreads become more inflated,
especially against bad teams, and while teams might win, they
no longer cover, and that was the case last week.
We'll see if it holds up again this week. I'm
going to give you the four official public plays and
then two additional leans as well that just missed out
just a bit outside some bonus coverage for you. And oh,
by the way, red Flag Alert Public Underdog on the
board this Sunday as well, one of the biggest public
dogs I've seen all season.
Speaker 2: We'll get to that in a moment.
Speaker 1: Let's start, though, with some of the public favorites on
the early card. We'll go down in schedule order, as
we always do, and the first one's an ugly one
one o'clock Eastern Cleveland and Tennessee. The Cleveland Browns making
the public list for maybe the first time this season.
I'd have to check the notes. I know we've played
against them several times, but the public's played against them
rather But what they've done even more often is play
against the Tennessee Titans. And that's exactly why Cleveland is
a public play this week. You know, as I always say,
it's not necessarily because someone's getting one sided actions, just
because nobody wants to play the other team. Tennessee's a
pure play against and I don't disagree. One of the
filters I like to use is not playing bad teams,
and that's a pretty good filter with the Titans this season.
They are just one and eleven straight up now, and
they've only covered five times all year. But what's interesting,
they've covered three of their last four games against the spread.
Despite losing all four straight up. So here we go again.
Late in the season. The Titans continue to lose straight
up zero to four, but three and one against the spread.
And if I had to play this game, I'd probably
lean towards the Titans, not in a hurry to lay
points with the Cleveland Browns team that's only won three
games all season. Look aheadline this summer was Cleveland minus
one and a half. I always point that out because
it's interesting to see how teams have performed outperformed three
to nine. Browns now laying a field goal more than
the summer line. I don't think that necessarily makes any sense.
And one other thing we got to talk about in
this game. The lowest total we're gonna probably see all
season thirty four, and there's really not any weather issues.
This is just because these are two terrible offensive teams.
I always say the lowest totals go under, the highest
totals go over. Thursday Night Football Lions and Cowboys was
a shootout. That total was around fifty four, and it
was a shootout as expected. This total is low, However,
there's not much value left if you just do some
basic math the Titans games. This year have averaged about
forty one and a half against the schedule that's averaged
forty four and a half.
Speaker 2: That's three points below average.
Speaker 1: Cleveland games have averaged only about thirty eight and a
half against the schedule that's averaged about forty six and
a half, so that's eight unders. So combined these two
teams are about eleven points below average. But the average
schedule play has been about forty five forty six. That
gets you down to thirty four to thirty five. So
the total is pretty much where it should be. Two
bad offenses, two bad passing teams. I would lean towards
a dog in what should be a low scoring game
Tennessee plus four. Fade the public in that one at
one eastern. All right, Another game on the one go oh,
by the way, cam Ward against Shadar Sanders.
Speaker 2: Both have been not good this season.
Speaker 1: One of the point that as well, too young quote
unquote superstar quarterbacks have obviously not been getting it done.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 1: The next game is also at one o'clock eastern. This
is the other home favorite that the public is using
the public's on the road teams and all the other
games coming up, but the two home teams are using
in Cleveland and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus eight and
a half against New Orleans. Similar situation here. The public
continues to fade New Orleans each and every week, and
for the most part, with some success. Thanks for having
a terrible season entering here just two and ten straight up,
but despite being just one and two straight up their
last three, they have covered two of those last three games.
And they were one of those public play against teams
last week that lost but covered, and that was the
public was on the Dolphins minus of five five and
a half. Well, the Saints only lost by four points
and Tampa's not exactly lightening it up one in three
straight up oh and four against the spread, and Tampa
another one of those teams last week that the public
was on that won straight up by three but failed
to cover as the four point favored against Arizona. So
here again, if you're looking to fade the public, hold
your nose. Take the adjusted line value here with the
New Orleans Saints. And speaking of adjusted line value, this
line is actually where it was supposed to be this year.
The summer line was nine and a half. Now it's
just eight and a half. Saints were expected to be bad,
and they've been bad. Tampa was expected to be a
little bit better than they've been. As I mentioned, they've
gone just one and three straight up their last four
oh and four against the spread. I'm not in a
hurry to lay eight and a half points of the
Bucks another spot. I can't really make a case for
the Saints, but I do think it could be the
contrarian call here and fad in the public. By the way,
if you like Tampa I would much rather play them
on a teaser and get them down to mind two
and a half. I think that makes some sense in
this one, as they are likely to probably win the game,
but once again the inflated line they might not cover.
If you like Tampa, I would play the teaser option
at minus.
Speaker 2: Two and a half.
Speaker 1: Otherwise I would rather have the Saints with the eight
and a half points spread at one eastern.
Speaker 2: All right, we'll keep it rolling here.
Speaker 1: Another public play on the four o'clock eastern card, and
this is one of those road teams is the Denver
Broncos minus seven and a half against the Las Vegas
Raiders on the road and Broncos nine straight wins. Of course,
they made the video. Last week another one of those
teams that won the game straight up but failed to cover,
and that was the Denver Broncos last week on Sunday
Night Football, and as you recall, also gave you the
Sunday Night videos I do every week. And by the way,
I've got the Texans Chiefs video free here on the channel.
Also your Monday Night video between the Eagles and Chargers.
Be sure to check those out as well. Here I
always give you the Thursday Night Prime games. Gave you
the Lions this week now eleven and three in your
Prime games this year. Sunday Monday Night Football free every week.
Gave you the Commanders last week as a free play
in that video. Also recommended them here in the fade
the public video and guess what, they became a four
percent strong best bet from my clients as well at
wager talk dot com. Everybody loved the Broncos. But one
thing I pointed out is that Denver, while they're winning,
they're not winning by margin. Nine straight wins, but it
was another win by less than a field goal, basically
in overtime by a single point. In fact, seven of
the Broncos last eight wins have come by four points
or less, and six of the last seven have come
by three points or less. So yes, Denver's winning, but
they're not winning by margin. So here again the seven
and a half. I could see a situation where Denver
wins this game, but they don't cover. Just like last week,
I would lean towards the Raiders plus the seven and
a half. Six and seven are both extremely key numbers,
and you have them both working for you here in
this game. And by the way, the look aheadline in
the summer was Denver minus three and a half. Now
it's seven and a half. Broncos have won nine straight,
but they've only won one of those last eight games
by more than four points. I could see this being
another one of those close wins. They have been a
great favorite straight up and not against the spread here
the past few months. Raiders meanwhile, bad offensive team, no
question about it. And if they get behind in this game,
they're in trouble because they don't throw the ball well.
But Denver's not a real explosive offense. On the season,
the Broncos are averages five point five yards per play
against teams that allow five point eight. Raiders have actually
been a decent defensive team this year, given up five
point four against teams that allow or that average five
point six, should be another one of those low scoring games.
If you look at the total forty and a half
forty one, a very key number, by the way, about
a three to four percent chance game, LANs On exactly
forty one forty and a half is indicating it should
be a low scoring game. And there again, I think
that gives the underdog Raiders or a chance to stay
within the number and keep it close at plus seven
and a half. If you're looking to fade the public
in that one, that's at for Eastern. All right, let's
get to that public dog. I got two additional games
that are just a bit outside from making the cut.
I'll give you those bonus games in a moment, but
let's get to the public dog of the week. And
this is one of the biggest public dogs as far
as points spread we're going to see all season, and
that's the Chicago Bears. The dub Bears plus six and
a half at four to twenty five Eastern. This is
a late astern national TV game for most markets at
four to twenty five Easter.
Speaker 2: Look, I get it.
Speaker 1: On the surface, this line does seem high, especially considering
the Bears have been a red hot team over the
past couple months. After starting the season zero to two
straight up and against the spread, they've gone nine to
one straight up, eight and two against the number their
last ten games, the most profitable team in the NFL
since mid September, and really the best team at nine
and one straight up, and we see this happen. It's
you know, I talk a lot about the financial markets
and the correlations between the betting markets. When a stock bottoms, know,
we never try to catch a falling knife. I always
talk about that, but when it finally has that bottoming process,
there's often tremendous upside in the near future. And over
the last decade, the Chicago Bears have probably been the
worst point spread team in the NFL year after year.
Always expected that breakout and never happened. Well, I think
it's happening, and it often takes the markets the betting
public a little time to adjust, and that's why we've
seen on this nine to one straight up run, they
also go eight and two against the spread, including several
outright underdog wins. We saw the opposite with the Patriots
a few years ago when they got really bad fast.
The markets couldn't catch up to how bad they've gotten
when they were probably the best points spread team in
the league for over a decade. So yes, it's risky
to fade Chicago in this situation, catching almost a full touchdown.
But I love fading public dogs, especially more than a
field goal. You know, sometimes a one or two point
public dog is dicey because it's really not much of
an underdog. When you get to three and a half
or more, and we only have a few of these
each year, it's usually a very strong fade play. And
this is one of my favorite filters, probably my favorite
filter of all with this public data. So yes, I
like the Packers in this game. I would look to
fade the Bears and be very careful. You don't have
to play the Packers. I just would not be in
Chicago in this one, as they are a public dog
at plus six and a half in long term well
over sixty percent. Fading these type of plays on the blind,
of course, I use this as a filter. I always
dig and I do think there's some other reasons you
can make a case for green Bay. Yes, they're coming
off the big win against Detroit. You could say this
is a flat spot, but that was the Thursday Thanksgiving games.
They've had nine days or yeah, about nine days I
believe what Thursday to Sunday, nine days of rest and
recoup time to get ready for this game ten days later.
And also they're in good current form three straight wins
and they've covered two of the last three with a push. Meanwhile,
while the Bears have been red hot, this is a
tough spot here, coming off the win against Minnesota. Against
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia on Friday, they got a little bit
of a mini by all, so they've had eight days off,
but that was a big win on the road as
a touchdown dog against the defending Super Bowl champs, and
now taking a huge step up in class I think
against a team that's in much better current form. Philadelphia
is struggling offensively and they could not take advantage of
a bad Bears defense. Green Bay has been mediocre at
times offensively this year, but they are an above average
passing team, and the Bears have both a bad run
D giving up over five yards of carry and a
bad pass D giving up over seven yards of pass
on the season. Chicago's allowing six point three yards per
play against teams at average just five point five, green
Bays averaging five point seven. I think the Packers can
put some points up in this game, and I would
fade the public in this one, fade that public dog
with the Green Bay Packers Chicago once again, the public
play in this one at plus six and a half.
That's a four to twenty five Eastern little national TV
action for you on the Lake card on Sunday. Hey,
comment below, what are your thoughts on those four public
plays sides? Do you agree with them or you're fading them?
You know, we don't just blindly fade the public who
use this as a filter, but I think all four
do present opportunities to fade. This week in the NFL
and once again overall this season hitting over sixty one percent,
actually sixty one and a half percent to be exact,
when you include the bonus opinions. I'm gonna give you
two more bonus opinions right now, two more public sides
that were just a bit outside from making the official cut.
These are still games you might want to take a
look at fading. Well, not necessarily. I actually agree with
one of those. I'll save that for the end, but
let's start at about one o'clock Eastern's game Seattle Seahawks. The
points against Atlanta. Seattle's currently minus seven in some spots,
six and a half in others six and a half
to seven, but it is public I expected to go
high and by kickoff the more sevens out there. If
you like the Seahawks, grab the six and a half now,
if you'd like, Atlanta should be definitely getting a plus seven.
Speaker 2: And I think this is.
Speaker 1: Another situation we could maybe fade the big favorite here.
Would not be surpriseding the Falcons keep this within the number.
Seahawks lost their opener against Seattle to start the season,
and they have quietly won what is a nine of
their next eleven as they stand nine and three in
the season, so what nine and two their last eleven
after that opening season loss. And they've also go nine
to two against the spread since that opening season loss. So,
just like the Bears, Seahawks have been the other most
profitable team in the NFL since early September. Not the
case for Atlanta. Falcons showed some life early in the
season with that three and two straight up in ATS
start and they've taken it on the chin since losing
six of their last seven, just one and six straight
up their last seven, and they've only covered two of
those games with a push. This is what we talk
about a contrarian play here. I think we're starting to
get some line value look ahead line this summer. The
Falcons were going to be a home favorite in this game.
Just a few months ago. Atlanta would have been about
a one and a half point favorite. Now they're a
six and a half to seven point home dog, and
the recent results the last two months couldn't be any
more extreme. Falcons are still capable at times this year,
They've been kind of a bipolar team, but they do
have some decent performances. They beat the Bills, for example.
They also beat Minnesota twenty two to six in that
Sunday night game in Week two, in which they had
more rushing yards and allowed in the total game. So
they have shown the opportunity to compete. And while I
think Seattle is a good team this season, the Seahawks
might be in a little bit of a letdown spot
here in this one. After the big win against the
Vikings last week at twenty six nothing home shutout win.
Now traveling cross country and playing the early start at
one Eastern, which means it's a ten am start for
the Seahawks. Remember when the Rams went to Jacksonville a
few weeks ago and lost by almost thirty. Well, this
situation kind of reminds me of that same setup. I
think the Falcons are capable of enough team to hang
or maybe even pull the upset. I would fade the
public with this one and take a look at Atlanta
plus the six and a half to plus seven at
one Eastern. All right, Hey, look, we're fading the public
in most games this week, but there is one game
in which I agree with the public, and that's the
last one that just missed the cut. The La Rams
minus eight and a half, and Rams are coming off
a real bad effort last week, so I'm not in
a hurry to fade them in this one. I still
think they're one of the best teams in the NFL.
Had their six game win streak snap, they'd gone six
and no straight up, five and one against the spread,
and then a little bit of a clunker against the
Panthers last week on the road. Is a ten point favorite,
lost outright thirty one to twenty eight, but as is
often the case, turnovers made that score a little bit misleading,
as they still had over four hundred and twenty total
yards of offense. The difference was three turnovers to none,
and they still almost won the game outright, as long
as they keep the turnovers and check, which I think
they will. By the way, they'd only had two total
turnovers total in their previous six games before last week.
That was that one outlier that we see every once
in a while with good teams. Rams are still a
solid team on both sides of the ball, defensive team,
and we just can't trust the Cardinals. This is a
team that after a two and oh start to the season,
has now lost nine of their last ten games, going
one to nine straight up their last ten. They have
covered a few of those, they've been feisty. So once again,
maybe a spot here where the Rams win by seven
they don't cover. I'm not trying to take a team
I don't think can win the game. I look for
the Rams to get back on track. If you're going
to play it, I would lay it. I would not
look to fade the public with the La Rams minus
eight and a half.
Speaker 2: All right, there you go.
Speaker 1: Those are the six public plays this week, well really
four official public plays as I said, Cleveland Browns minus four,
Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus the eight and a half. Those
both are home favorites at one Eastern, then on the
Lake card. The other two official public plays this week
Denver Broncos minus seven and a half and also the
Chicago Bears plus six and a half. Is that public
dog of the week. Two additional games that were just
a bit outside for making the cut. Additional public leans
on the Seattle Seahawks minus six and a half to
minus seven and the one I actually agree with, the
La Rams minus the eight and a half that's on
the Lake card at four twenty five eastern.
Speaker 2: Whoo, there you go.
Speaker 1: Lots of information. Always try to jam pack it for
you know. There are thirteen games, well actually twelve games
this Sunday and the Monday night er. Twelve games this Sunday,
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