1
00:00:24,719 --> 00:00:27,920
Speaker 1: Hello, everyone, and welcome to the show. I'm Martin Willis,

2
00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:31,480
your host. I'm real excited about our guests tonight. Uh,

3
00:00:31,679 --> 00:00:37,600
doctor Robert Well, Yes, doctor Robin Hanson. Real amazing person.

4
00:00:37,920 --> 00:00:41,960
If I was a very intelligent alien and I landed here,

5
00:00:42,200 --> 00:00:44,320
I think I would want to talk to him. I mean,

6
00:00:44,920 --> 00:00:50,799
this guy is amazing. I listened to Kurt Jamungle's podcast

7
00:00:51,079 --> 00:00:53,880
and was kind of blown away. I actually listened to

8
00:00:53,960 --> 00:00:57,640
it twice, which is something I rarely do, so I'm

9
00:00:57,679 --> 00:00:59,439
really excited to bring him on. I hope you take

10
00:00:59,479 --> 00:01:02,560
the time and look in the show notes and read

11
00:01:03,560 --> 00:01:10,560
Robin's biography. It's just amazing. So without further ado, welcome, Hello,

12
00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:16,159
glad you here. As I said, I think your theory

13
00:01:16,319 --> 00:01:20,519
is just amazing. And I first of all, I just

14
00:01:20,519 --> 00:01:22,200
want to say, and I usually do this, we have

15
00:01:22,239 --> 00:01:25,480
a blog this week and check that out over at

16
00:01:25,519 --> 00:01:29,079
podcastufo dot com. And I want to thank everyone that

17
00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:31,760
supports the show and of course all our listeners. Thank

18
00:01:31,799 --> 00:01:34,920
you everyone and chat tonight for being here live. But

19
00:01:35,239 --> 00:01:37,599
one of the things I wanted to tell you right

20
00:01:37,599 --> 00:01:40,400
off the bat, which I think you'll find interesting because

21
00:01:40,439 --> 00:01:42,239
I know it kind of dovetails with a lot of

22
00:01:42,239 --> 00:01:45,760
what you'll be talking about, and that is back in

23
00:01:45,799 --> 00:01:49,719
the nineteen nineties before I was really looking into this topic. Now,

24
00:01:49,719 --> 00:01:51,840
I've told this story on this show a number of times,

25
00:01:52,120 --> 00:01:56,079
but I think you'll really appreciate it. So I had

26
00:01:56,159 --> 00:01:58,760
an insurance broker come to my house for a life

27
00:01:58,799 --> 00:02:02,519
insurance policy and we were wrapping things up and talking

28
00:02:02,560 --> 00:02:05,680
and he said, you know, he mentioned for some reason

29
00:02:05,680 --> 00:02:08,080
that he was in Vietnam and I said, oh, wow,

30
00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:09,879
you know, that must have been really something. He said, well,

31
00:02:09,919 --> 00:02:12,360
I had a very unusual job. I said, well, what

32
00:02:12,439 --> 00:02:14,319
was that and he said, well, I was in a

33
00:02:14,560 --> 00:02:20,680
special part of the Air Force that was exploring why

34
00:02:20,759 --> 00:02:24,879
these UFOs were showing up during napalming and other things.

35
00:02:25,199 --> 00:02:27,599
So I said, oh my god, this is really crazy. So,

36
00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:29,360
you know, we talked quite a bit about it, and

37
00:02:29,439 --> 00:02:31,319
he said they're interested in our nukes, and you know,

38
00:02:31,719 --> 00:02:33,439
blah blah blah. This is back in the nineties. Now.

39
00:02:33,439 --> 00:02:36,120
I wasn't even paying any attention to this top the

40
00:02:36,159 --> 00:02:40,199
topic of UFOs at that time. So he's getting ready

41
00:02:40,240 --> 00:02:42,080
to leave and I said, hey, by the way, what

42
00:02:42,120 --> 00:02:45,919
does a government think that they they want with us?

43
00:02:46,560 --> 00:02:49,240
And he looked at me and he just said, we're

44
00:02:49,280 --> 00:02:54,039
a Petri dish. That's what he said. So I thought

45
00:02:54,080 --> 00:02:56,719
you'd appreciate that whatever, you know. And I've never been

46
00:02:56,759 --> 00:03:00,759
able to reach this person, you know, since I started

47
00:03:00,759 --> 00:03:03,520
doing the show. But I mean, what a that's quite

48
00:03:03,560 --> 00:03:04,039
a comment.

49
00:03:04,240 --> 00:03:07,400
Speaker 2: The space is full of dramatic, amazing stories, that's for sure.

50
00:03:07,719 --> 00:03:12,680
Speaker 1: That's true. That's true. So if you would please talk

51
00:03:12,719 --> 00:03:15,599
a little bit about yourself and your interest in you know,

52
00:03:15,680 --> 00:03:17,840
you did this thing called the Great Filter. I think

53
00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:20,479
that's really fascinating, and you know, that's what I'd like

54
00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:23,599
to talk about a lot tonight. Is that your thoughts

55
00:03:23,599 --> 00:03:28,039
on that. But you have quite a background, and have

56
00:03:28,159 --> 00:03:32,159
you always been into science and since a young age.

57
00:03:33,759 --> 00:03:39,520
Speaker 2: I think since college. I was sucked in by the

58
00:03:39,960 --> 00:03:43,199
fancys or the ideal of being a thinker who figures

59
00:03:43,240 --> 00:03:47,439
important things out. I maybe some early college lectures sort

60
00:03:47,439 --> 00:03:50,680
of sold me on that vision, and I guess I

61
00:03:50,719 --> 00:03:53,319
was also sold on the vision that you should be

62
00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:56,479
looking for surprises, big things, and it's worth pursuing big

63
00:03:56,520 --> 00:04:00,000
things even if the chances are small. I'm an academic,

64
00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:02,639
I'm a professor, but as you may know, most professors,

65
00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:06,039
most academics just want to have a little corner of

66
00:04:06,080 --> 00:04:08,639
the world where they are the specialists in something and

67
00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:12,199
then you know, do a sequence of very solid, very acceptable,

68
00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:15,120
you know things where they are skilled at it and

69
00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:16,959
they can show off their skill, and then they are

70
00:04:17,240 --> 00:04:21,040
a scholar and researcher who you know is fits in

71
00:04:21,079 --> 00:04:23,879
our big world of all these old things. But you know,

72
00:04:24,040 --> 00:04:27,959
I wanted to, like always wanted to reconceive things, to

73
00:04:28,000 --> 00:04:30,720
see the differently, maybe because there have been these people

74
00:04:31,079 --> 00:04:34,040
across history who have found ways to look at things

75
00:04:34,040 --> 00:04:36,800
different and that made a big difference. And I'm always

76
00:04:36,839 --> 00:04:38,920
rusted after being one of those people who made a

77
00:04:38,959 --> 00:04:42,199
big difference. So once I had the freedom too, I've

78
00:04:42,240 --> 00:04:44,199
always been trying to go for these long shots, the

79
00:04:44,399 --> 00:04:47,600
big ways to reconceive things, big ways to understand things different,

80
00:04:47,879 --> 00:04:51,480
and hopefully I will come across or have come across

81
00:04:51,480 --> 00:04:54,160
a few of those along the way. So I'm a

82
00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:57,120
professor of economics. But I started out in engineering a

83
00:04:57,120 --> 00:04:59,879
long time, that did physics, and did philosophy of science

84
00:05:00,759 --> 00:05:03,360
and physics, and did computer science for nine years, and

85
00:05:03,480 --> 00:05:07,160
AI actually in basi and statistics and did political science.

86
00:05:07,199 --> 00:05:11,199
And since I became tenured in economics. I've written a

87
00:05:11,240 --> 00:05:13,240
book that's kind of a futurist book, and another book

88
00:05:13,279 --> 00:05:16,120
that's kind of a psychology book, and so and at

89
00:05:16,120 --> 00:05:18,480
the moment, I've been working on culture, and two years

90
00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:20,560
ago I worked on the Sacred. So I've just done

91
00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:21,519
a lot of different things.

92
00:05:22,279 --> 00:05:22,639
Speaker 1: Wow.

93
00:05:22,759 --> 00:05:24,319
Speaker 2: One of the things I did, which I guess is

94
00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:28,399
what your interested did, which as basically a grad student,

95
00:05:28,439 --> 00:05:31,720
and then at postdoc I just noticed this question of

96
00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:36,000
for me's question where is everybody in the universe, And

97
00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:38,319
being the arrogant sort of person that I am, I

98
00:05:38,319 --> 00:05:40,879
thought I could just go in and try to work

99
00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:43,839
on it, which I did, and then I came up

100
00:05:43,879 --> 00:05:47,319
with this perspective called the Great Filter, which is really

101
00:05:47,360 --> 00:05:49,879
just a way to rename the question where is everybody?

102
00:05:49,920 --> 00:05:53,800
But in an interesting way. So I did that in

103
00:05:54,079 --> 00:05:58,079
ninety eight, I guess quite a while ago eight ninety

104
00:05:58,160 --> 00:06:02,000
nine worked on the Great filter of it, and then

105
00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:05,600
I have gone elsewhere since then. But then about four

106
00:06:05,680 --> 00:06:08,639
years ago, four or five years ago, I returned to

107
00:06:08,680 --> 00:06:11,759
the topic and did it again more mathematically, because I

108
00:06:11,800 --> 00:06:15,199
had noticed a certain mathematical equation that had been neglected,

109
00:06:15,639 --> 00:06:19,399
I thought by people who had been thinking in this area,

110
00:06:19,600 --> 00:06:23,439
and so I made a basically mathematical version of the

111
00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:26,000
great filter. But you know, I guess you'd like a

112
00:06:26,040 --> 00:06:26,959
quick quick summary.

113
00:06:27,040 --> 00:06:30,240
Speaker 1: I guess right, yeah I would. But before that, did

114
00:06:30,279 --> 00:06:33,480
you rewrite it? Because there was because we know a

115
00:06:33,519 --> 00:06:35,600
little more than we did then, you know, because we

116
00:06:35,639 --> 00:06:38,920
have like the James Webb telescope, and we have more well,

117
00:06:38,959 --> 00:06:40,439
we've done a lot more observation.

118
00:06:40,639 --> 00:06:43,560
Speaker 2: It's about being clever with what you know. So the

119
00:06:43,600 --> 00:06:46,399
things I realized that we could use were things we

120
00:06:46,439 --> 00:06:48,240
had known for a long time, so they weren't new

121
00:06:48,279 --> 00:06:52,439
things to know. But so a famous example is back

122
00:06:52,439 --> 00:06:56,079
in ancient Greece, somebody cleverly figured out how to use

123
00:06:56,120 --> 00:06:58,160
the data they had to figure out how far away

124
00:06:58,199 --> 00:07:02,319
the sun was our way the moon was, which is

125
00:07:02,360 --> 00:07:06,439
pretty incredible, and most people didn't realize that the data

126
00:07:06,480 --> 00:07:09,279
they had could tell them that, and they were roughly

127
00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:12,759
right with the numbers they got. So again, it was

128
00:07:12,800 --> 00:07:15,839
about taking some data we have and realizing you can

129
00:07:15,879 --> 00:07:17,680
squeeze more out of it than people have.

130
00:07:18,560 --> 00:07:21,519
Speaker 1: Ah, I see, uh huh. All right, yeah, so let's

131
00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:24,399
have an overview of your thoughts.

132
00:07:24,199 --> 00:07:26,920
Speaker 2: On the So we're going to do two steps first,

133
00:07:26,920 --> 00:07:28,920
we're going to talk about the great filter, this idea

134
00:07:28,959 --> 00:07:31,879
from a long time agoing. This is one of the

135
00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:34,240
areas of my life where I've been lucky with influence

136
00:07:34,279 --> 00:07:36,240
in the sense of this phrase, the great filter, has

137
00:07:36,319 --> 00:07:39,120
become popular and now maybe every week there's a news

138
00:07:39,199 --> 00:07:41,639
article somewhere that uses this phrase the great filter, to

139
00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:45,720
talk about aliens. So that's kind of cute.

140
00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:46,839
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, okay.

141
00:07:46,879 --> 00:07:49,879
Speaker 2: But so the idea is, you look up in the

142
00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:53,160
sky and you see no aliens. But if we look

143
00:07:53,240 --> 00:07:55,319
into our future, if we think about what we could

144
00:07:55,399 --> 00:07:58,680
become soon as a civilization, we think we have a

145
00:07:58,839 --> 00:08:01,800
chance at least of being much bigger than we are.

146
00:08:01,839 --> 00:08:05,000
Science fiction is full of scenarios like that. And by bigger,

147
00:08:05,040 --> 00:08:09,199
I mean not just more technologically advanced, I mean filling

148
00:08:09,199 --> 00:08:12,600
a larger space, like going to many star systems nearby

149
00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:17,519
and then being more visible, doing more things and giving

150
00:08:17,519 --> 00:08:22,839
off using more energy, and changing how things appear. And say,

151
00:08:22,879 --> 00:08:26,000
within a million years, which is tiny and cosmological times,

152
00:08:26,439 --> 00:08:30,360
we could fill the galaxy completely and remake the galaxy completely,

153
00:08:31,199 --> 00:08:34,039
and that would be visible from a long way off.

154
00:08:34,559 --> 00:08:38,399
You would see it, certainly from one galaxy over, but

155
00:08:38,559 --> 00:08:42,720
maybe even from a million galaxies over. So when we

156
00:08:42,759 --> 00:08:44,600
look up at the universe and we say, well, where

157
00:08:44,639 --> 00:08:46,720
are these people like us who are a million years

158
00:08:46,759 --> 00:08:51,399
more advanced than us? We don't see them. And that's

159
00:08:51,440 --> 00:08:53,759
puzzling because we think this is a huge universe. We're

160
00:08:53,799 --> 00:08:58,120
not that special. It doesn't seem and so if we

161
00:08:58,159 --> 00:09:00,639
could do that, if we could almost be there, I

162
00:09:00,639 --> 00:09:02,960
can something else almost be there. But you look up

163
00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:05,879
in the university, you just don't see it. So that's

164
00:09:05,879 --> 00:09:10,000
the puzzle, and my contribution was to rephrase this puzzle

165
00:09:10,000 --> 00:09:14,879
in the following terms. Every part of the universe starts

166
00:09:14,919 --> 00:09:19,159
out simple, dead, and then it evolves over time, and

167
00:09:19,279 --> 00:09:22,159
each place has a chance of evolving to the next

168
00:09:22,159 --> 00:09:25,440
step toward what we are and what we might become.

169
00:09:26,240 --> 00:09:29,600
So there's a chance of starting life that's very simple.

170
00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:32,960
It's a chance that simple life gets more complicated. There's

171
00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:35,000
a whole set of stages that life can go through

172
00:09:35,039 --> 00:09:38,159
to get more advanced. It can be multicellular, it can

173
00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:41,159
have what's called you carry ittes, different kind of internal structure.

174
00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:44,840
It can have sex as a way to share genes

175
00:09:45,080 --> 00:09:47,799
and develop. There's a whole bunch of ways that life

176
00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:52,960
can get better, and eventually that gets to us, and

177
00:09:53,000 --> 00:09:55,559
then eventually it would get further than us. So there's

178
00:09:55,600 --> 00:09:58,879
a path starting from simple dead matter to becoming us

179
00:09:58,919 --> 00:10:02,360
and further, and the whole universe starts out going down

180
00:10:02,399 --> 00:10:04,879
that path. Every spot in the universe starting out on

181
00:10:04,960 --> 00:10:10,320
that path. But if the path is really hard each

182
00:10:10,320 --> 00:10:12,559
step of the path, maybe most things don't make it

183
00:10:12,600 --> 00:10:14,919
that step. They just fail to get onto the next step.

184
00:10:15,159 --> 00:10:17,720
And so there's a filtering process. Lots of things start

185
00:10:17,759 --> 00:10:20,919
out and then lots of things get cut away, and

186
00:10:20,919 --> 00:10:23,200
you get fewer and fewer things making it down the path.

187
00:10:24,519 --> 00:10:29,399
And if you look at us, we go how much

188
00:10:29,440 --> 00:10:31,960
filtering has happened between the beginning and now that's the

189
00:10:32,000 --> 00:10:35,600
size of the great filter from the very beginning to

190
00:10:35,639 --> 00:10:38,320
where we are. And then we're not all the way yet,

191
00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:40,279
there's the size and the filter of the beginning all

192
00:10:40,320 --> 00:10:43,000
the way to what we hope to become. And the

193
00:10:43,080 --> 00:10:46,960
key observation is this filter must be really hard, because

194
00:10:47,039 --> 00:10:49,360
we see this whole universe is stuff, and nothing we

195
00:10:49,399 --> 00:10:52,200
see has gotten to this point where we think we

196
00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:56,240
could get soon. So that process must be really hard.

197
00:10:56,480 --> 00:10:59,279
It must. Most things that start out down that paths

198
00:10:59,440 --> 00:11:02,840
get knocked off somehow, they don't start life, they don't

199
00:11:02,879 --> 00:11:06,840
get sex, they don't get multicellular, they don't get intelligence,

200
00:11:06,879 --> 00:11:13,240
whatever it is. They fail, and we succeeded almost where

201
00:11:13,279 --> 00:11:15,000
at least at this point, which is pretty far down

202
00:11:15,039 --> 00:11:17,559
the path. So the great filter is just the idea

203
00:11:17,639 --> 00:11:20,360
that we can reframe the question of where is everybody

204
00:11:20,399 --> 00:11:23,320
as the question, well, where along this path is the filter.

205
00:11:24,159 --> 00:11:25,720
It doesn't have to be just one spot. It could

206
00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:29,679
be many spots, but the net effect of each of

207
00:11:29,720 --> 00:11:32,000
the filters along the way adds up to a big filter.

208
00:11:33,080 --> 00:11:36,279
And we can see that that big filter has to

209
00:11:36,279 --> 00:11:39,840
be huge in order to explain the fact that nobody

210
00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:44,080
else is out there that we see. And you could

211
00:11:44,120 --> 00:11:48,399
ask how much is left in the filter? And how

212
00:11:48,600 --> 00:11:51,279
much is left in the filter basically says how hard

213
00:11:51,320 --> 00:11:54,559
it is to achieve this hope for future we have.

214
00:11:56,039 --> 00:11:58,559
So you can see roughly ten to the twenty four

215
00:11:58,639 --> 00:12:03,480
planets in our observable versus the moment, and you might think,

216
00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:06,639
you know, nothing has achieved that, so none of those

217
00:12:06,679 --> 00:12:08,240
ten to the twenty four have gotten where we think.

218
00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:10,399
So maybe you think of the whole filter as a

219
00:12:10,440 --> 00:12:13,799
factor of ten to the twenty four. That's pretty big.

220
00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:16,919
What if there's only ten to the two left, so

221
00:12:16,960 --> 00:12:19,480
we've gone through ten to the ten to the twenty

222
00:12:19,480 --> 00:12:21,519
two so far, and then there's ten to the two left,

223
00:12:21,519 --> 00:12:24,200
adding up to ten to the twenty four, that would

224
00:12:24,240 --> 00:12:26,759
be we're way past most of it. But even that

225
00:12:26,879 --> 00:12:29,759
scenario says, Okay, there's only a one on one hundred

226
00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:33,440
chance from here of becoming this big growing things we

227
00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:35,559
hope to be. That is ninety nine percent chance we're

228
00:12:35,559 --> 00:12:38,279
going to fail. And many of these failure scenarios are

229
00:12:38,320 --> 00:12:42,799
not very pleasant. So this suggests kind of a troublesome

230
00:12:42,840 --> 00:12:45,360
vision of the future. Some of the future could be

231
00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:48,519
left in front of us, and that could be enough

232
00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:51,879
to take us out. So that's the basic story of

233
00:12:51,879 --> 00:12:53,919
the Great Filter. One last thing to say about it

234
00:12:53,960 --> 00:12:59,200
is if we find something else in the universe that's

235
00:12:59,240 --> 00:13:03,399
gone along this path, well, the farther it went down

236
00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:07,399
this path, the more that's saying that the step before

237
00:13:07,480 --> 00:13:11,919
that was not so hard, But that suggests that the

238
00:13:11,919 --> 00:13:16,320
steps after that are harder, including the step after where

239
00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:20,600
we are now. So, for example, we saw simple life

240
00:13:20,639 --> 00:13:24,759
on Mars or somewhere out in the universe, and it

241
00:13:24,879 --> 00:13:27,519
was had an independent origin from us. That would suggest

242
00:13:27,720 --> 00:13:30,120
our future is worse. So it's bad news for our future.

243
00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:33,039
It would be fascinating news, but it's bad news about

244
00:13:33,039 --> 00:13:37,919
our future to find anything out there that's at least

245
00:13:37,919 --> 00:13:39,720
gone down part of the path up to where we

246
00:13:39,759 --> 00:13:40,159
are now.

247
00:13:42,799 --> 00:13:47,159
Speaker 1: And you said there's two steps. Did you say there's

248
00:13:47,159 --> 00:13:49,960
another step to this? Or that? Is that? Everything is that?

249
00:13:50,519 --> 00:13:53,000
Speaker 2: So I've just summarized the idea of the grape fielder,

250
00:13:53,080 --> 00:13:56,000
and I think it contains two parts, the part that

251
00:13:56,000 --> 00:13:58,039
we've gotten past now for us at least, and the

252
00:13:58,039 --> 00:14:00,320
part that's ahead of us until we could be big

253
00:14:00,360 --> 00:14:04,159
and visible. And we should like that part remaining to

254
00:14:04,240 --> 00:14:07,759
be small. I see, But we can't be very sure

255
00:14:07,759 --> 00:14:09,759
of that. So we should worry about how much is that?

256
00:14:09,879 --> 00:14:14,519
Because the whole thing is huge, and anything that suggests

257
00:14:14,559 --> 00:14:18,519
that behind us something was easier than we thought means

258
00:14:18,519 --> 00:14:20,559
ahead of us stuff is harder than we thought.

259
00:14:21,879 --> 00:14:25,559
Speaker 1: And what what makes you think that? Do you think

260
00:14:25,639 --> 00:14:27,919
it's like a natural thing? I mean, you can you

261
00:14:27,960 --> 00:14:31,360
can say for us, you know, we're we're curious. It's

262
00:14:31,360 --> 00:14:35,720
hard to say what another species developing on another planet

263
00:14:35,759 --> 00:14:39,200
with all different variables. I know, I meant you mentioned

264
00:14:39,440 --> 00:14:41,519
that we have plenty of things to go by with

265
00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:44,559
the animals on this planet and other you know, species

266
00:14:44,559 --> 00:14:47,200
on this planet, and of how they developed and all that.

267
00:14:47,240 --> 00:14:54,440
But but what makes someone curious is that part of evolution,

268
00:14:55,159 --> 00:14:58,200
you know, I mean, because you know, I mean, what

269
00:14:58,320 --> 00:15:01,440
would make us want to call anize. I mean, you

270
00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:02,720
think it's a natural thing.

271
00:15:04,039 --> 00:15:07,519
Speaker 2: So you're focused on something pretty recent in our history.

272
00:15:08,639 --> 00:15:11,879
But remember that the entire path, all the way back

273
00:15:11,919 --> 00:15:13,879
from the beginning, all the way to this future point,

274
00:15:14,200 --> 00:15:17,639
all of that's the filter, and it's all plausibly part

275
00:15:17,639 --> 00:15:20,639
of it. So it's not clear that any part of

276
00:15:20,639 --> 00:15:23,159
the future has really been in the recent past. It

277
00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:25,399
might be, but it's actually less possible. So it turns

278
00:15:25,399 --> 00:15:32,120
out that on Earth intelligence evolved several times independently, and

279
00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:34,240
that makes it less plausible that it was a really

280
00:15:34,279 --> 00:15:37,679
hard thing to do. So the hard, really hard things

281
00:15:37,679 --> 00:15:40,120
to do should plausibly only ever have happened once in

282
00:15:40,120 --> 00:15:42,559
our history. We got lucky enough to even happen once,

283
00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:45,759
But intelligence was something happened several times. Now, there's different

284
00:15:45,799 --> 00:15:47,960
kinds of intelligence. You might say, oh, what our kind

285
00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:53,080
is special? Maybe the kind that has curiosity However, curiosity

286
00:15:53,120 --> 00:15:57,279
is pretty common among mammals. Although you might think, well,

287
00:15:57,279 --> 00:16:02,559
maybe mammals were hard, right, so again, but I can

288
00:16:02,600 --> 00:16:06,000
tell you some details. This really suggests that nothing in

289
00:16:06,039 --> 00:16:09,600
the last half billion years has been very hard, unfortunately,

290
00:16:10,320 --> 00:16:12,960
So we'd like to look at our personal history. Like

291
00:16:13,159 --> 00:16:16,039
you know, some people think, oh, like the Industrial Revolution

292
00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:18,440
happened three hundred years ago, and that might have been

293
00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:20,320
really hard, and maybe that was the big thing. But

294
00:16:21,519 --> 00:16:24,879
anything that happens really fast is less likely to be

295
00:16:25,000 --> 00:16:29,320
the cause of this filter because our universe is now

296
00:16:29,399 --> 00:16:33,879
fourteen billion years old, so that gives you lots of

297
00:16:33,879 --> 00:16:36,799
time for things to be hard and nevertheless eventually be found.

298
00:16:37,919 --> 00:16:41,120
So anything that happens really fast just as not very

299
00:16:41,159 --> 00:16:44,559
plausible to have been at least a sort of thing

300
00:16:44,600 --> 00:16:47,080
where the universe was just trying it over and over again,

301
00:16:47,159 --> 00:16:50,159
searching in the space of possibilities and eventually found something.

302
00:16:52,200 --> 00:16:57,480
Speaker 1: Hmm interesting. I had a professor I'm not I'm sorry,

303
00:16:57,559 --> 00:17:01,799
not a professor of visiting NASA scientists, and he was

304
00:17:01,840 --> 00:17:05,079
an astrobiologist, Doctor Jeffrey Bennett was on the show a

305
00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:08,759
number of years ago, and he said that basically water

306
00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:11,960
cooler talk at NASA. This is just a phrase. He

307
00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:17,480
said that they all thought that if a civilization can

308
00:17:17,640 --> 00:17:21,839
make it through the bottleneck of technology without blowing themselves up,

309
00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:25,160
then they'll be exploring the stars, they'll be traveling the stars.

310
00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:28,319
And do you kind of think that's.

311
00:17:28,440 --> 00:17:32,160
Speaker 2: Again, I think we're primed to think about our recent

312
00:17:32,319 --> 00:17:37,240
history as really important, and the cosmological perspective says, that's

313
00:17:37,279 --> 00:17:41,279
just really unlikely. Fourteen million years of whole of the

314
00:17:41,400 --> 00:17:43,559
universe history, and you're going to look at the last

315
00:17:43,559 --> 00:17:45,640
three hundred years and say, ah, that was the really

316
00:17:45,640 --> 00:17:50,200
important thing. Yeah, you're right right, Anything that happened in

317
00:17:50,279 --> 00:17:54,519
only three hundred years just isn't plausibly that hard. But

318
00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:57,319
we can go into that detail if you want, happy

319
00:17:57,319 --> 00:18:01,319
to go whichever direction you want. But again, as I mentioned,

320
00:18:01,559 --> 00:18:04,519
we did a more mathematical version of the great filter model.

321
00:18:04,559 --> 00:18:06,079
So what I've just told you is far just has

322
00:18:06,119 --> 00:18:09,799
this one number. Okay, maybe a constraint on the total

323
00:18:09,839 --> 00:18:11,759
filter is at least ten to the twenty four, but

324
00:18:11,839 --> 00:18:13,960
it doesn't really have other numbers, and it's sort of

325
00:18:13,960 --> 00:18:17,279
a qualitative analysis. But returning to the topic, we were

326
00:18:17,279 --> 00:18:19,599
able to give numbers a lot more.

327
00:18:19,559 --> 00:18:25,000
Speaker 1: Numbers Okay, So let's say let's say you talk about

328
00:18:25,079 --> 00:18:28,079
numbers and development, you know, because we are young, like

329
00:18:28,119 --> 00:18:30,799
you know, the Earth is young compared to a lot

330
00:18:30,799 --> 00:18:34,839
of planets in solar systems out there. So let's say

331
00:18:34,839 --> 00:18:39,839
something's advanced of us a million years, you know, somewhere

332
00:18:40,119 --> 00:18:44,160
in our galaxy. So how does that does that all

333
00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:45,920
part of your thinking.

334
00:18:48,119 --> 00:18:50,440
Speaker 2: Well, if we're going to get to, say, thinking about

335
00:18:50,480 --> 00:18:55,039
what could possibly make any sense of UFOs being aliens

336
00:18:55,079 --> 00:18:58,240
as opposed to delusions or hoaxes or something else, then

337
00:18:58,279 --> 00:19:00,720
we're going to have to think about the possibility that

338
00:19:00,759 --> 00:19:05,160
there is other advanced life near us and more advance

339
00:19:05,240 --> 00:19:06,880
than us. And in that case, we're going to have

340
00:19:06,920 --> 00:19:10,400
to think about scenarios like that. But I think we

341
00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:12,640
need to do some prep work before we can get

342
00:19:12,640 --> 00:19:15,119
to that sort of scenario. I think first you just

343
00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:18,160
want to have your best scenario of just what the

344
00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:20,720
universe looks like in terms of where advanced life is

345
00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:23,279
in it, and then you want to ask how could

346
00:19:23,359 --> 00:19:25,559
we change that scenario in a minimal way to make

347
00:19:25,599 --> 00:19:28,920
sense of maybe UFOs being elides. But I don't think

348
00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:31,039
we're there yet in our conversation here to be able

349
00:19:31,079 --> 00:19:37,200
to go to that scenario yet, So the simplest scenario

350
00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:44,000
of the universe is that advanced life appears at some

351
00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:48,319
point on a planet like ours, and then it has

352
00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:51,440
to go through a number of steps, difficult steps on

353
00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:57,079
that planet advancing life, where each step is life searching

354
00:19:57,119 --> 00:20:00,039
in a vast space of possibilities to find a a

355
00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:02,680
great rare combination that will let it go to the

356
00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:07,240
next step. And then all of a certain number of

357
00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:09,839
steps all have to happen, like getting where we are

358
00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:12,799
and then farther before the window for life on that

359
00:20:12,839 --> 00:20:15,599
planet ends. So our window for life on our planet

360
00:20:15,640 --> 00:20:18,400
will end in about a billion years. And if we

361
00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:20,960
hadn't appeared down doing what we're going to do, then

362
00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:25,960
plausibly life would have just been melted or burned up

363
00:20:26,039 --> 00:20:30,119
basically by the heat of the increasingly hot sun in

364
00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:34,119
a billion years. So life has to go through enough

365
00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:38,279
of these steps to achieve the ability to leave that

366
00:20:38,319 --> 00:20:42,640
planet and then spread out into the universe. So basically,

367
00:20:42,759 --> 00:20:47,640
some random planet has to start this process of going

368
00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:50,680
down this path of the rake filter, going through what

369
00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:53,160
will call hard steps, and it has to reach the

370
00:20:53,279 --> 00:20:55,880
end of that path before the window for that planet ends,

371
00:20:57,359 --> 00:20:59,799
and then the life on that planet then starts to

372
00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:04,079
out in the universe, and it just spreads at some speed,

373
00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:08,480
presumably whatever is the fastest feasible speed to spread out,

374
00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:11,960
because there'd be competition inside that would push for people

375
00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:13,839
to run to the frontier as fast as they could

376
00:21:14,079 --> 00:21:18,079
to get there before others. And then this keeps spreading

377
00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:22,799
until these civilizations meet each other, and at that point

378
00:21:22,799 --> 00:21:25,480
they fill the universe with civilizations, and now the universe

379
00:21:25,519 --> 00:21:29,680
is no longer dead, it's full of advanced life. That's

380
00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:33,880
the simple scenario. And this scenario has three three parameters.

381
00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:38,200
So remember life appears at random points in space, so

382
00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:42,799
we don't need a parameter for that. It appears on

383
00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:48,359
planets at random times, and then it spreads it a speed,

384
00:21:49,519 --> 00:21:53,039
and the time at which appears has a two parameters

385
00:21:53,079 --> 00:21:56,640
to it because it's a power law, and that power

386
00:21:56,680 --> 00:22:00,119
law comes from this hard steps model. What we i

387
00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:02,839
know is that if a planet is lucky enough to

388
00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:06,319
go through lots of hard steps before it's deadline, even

389
00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:10,599
though on most planets that doesn't happen, then in fact,

390
00:22:10,759 --> 00:22:12,839
the chance of it happening as a function of time

391
00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:15,400
goes as a power law, which is the power of

392
00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:18,400
the number of steps, so say six might be a

393
00:22:18,519 --> 00:22:20,359
plausible number of steps. And now this is actually the

394
00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:24,680
standard model we have for cancer in your body in

395
00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:29,240
innimal bodies. So each cell in your body could become cancerous.

396
00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:32,079
In order to do so, about six mutations have to happen,

397
00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:36,160
all in that same cell. These mutations happen at a

398
00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:39,680
constant rate over time, but the chance that six of

399
00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:41,480
them happen in the same cell, the chance of that

400
00:22:41,519 --> 00:22:44,640
goes is the sixth power of time. That's why you

401
00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:49,079
get cancer much more often later in life. And when

402
00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:51,799
people die, roughly a forty percent of them have cancer

403
00:22:51,839 --> 00:22:56,759
somewhere in their body. So it's the same mathematical model

404
00:22:56,759 --> 00:23:00,359
here for cancer in your body as for any particular

405
00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:03,759
planet to achieve advanced life. That is, you have I

406
00:23:03,799 --> 00:23:07,079
don't know, billions of cells in your body, and again

407
00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:09,839
one of them, at the end of your life has cancer,

408
00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:14,720
but the rest don't I e. It's pretty rare. And

409
00:23:14,799 --> 00:23:17,960
so then it's pretty rare that anyone planet manages to

410
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:21,200
achieve our level of advanced life or farther by the

411
00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:23,680
time the window is out. But since you've got so

412
00:23:23,759 --> 00:23:27,480
many of them, then it becomes more likely that you know,

413
00:23:27,599 --> 00:23:31,160
every once in a while one of them does. All right,

414
00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:34,400
So what that says if we say that on a planet,

415
00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:36,720
the chance of advanced life appearing as a function of

416
00:23:36,759 --> 00:23:40,559
time goes to, say, the sixth power of time, then

417
00:23:40,759 --> 00:23:43,119
we have two free parameters here we need to describe that.

418
00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:45,960
We need this power, which is say six, and we

419
00:23:46,039 --> 00:23:49,440
need the constant in front of the power, which says

420
00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:51,680
sort of the overall rate of the power law. Now,

421
00:23:52,519 --> 00:23:54,559
so now we have a model with three parameters again

422
00:23:54,599 --> 00:23:57,160
the speed of expansion when they expand, and then the

423
00:23:57,200 --> 00:24:00,599
two parameters in the power of of time, constant in

424
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:02,680
front of the power law and the power. And we

425
00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:05,880
can get these three parameters all from data. So that's

426
00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:08,559
the clever looking at data and realizing it says is

427
00:24:08,599 --> 00:24:09,279
more than you think.

428
00:24:09,319 --> 00:24:13,319
Speaker 1: Part wow.

429
00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:15,839
Speaker 2: So we can walk through each of those pieces of

430
00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:19,440
data and how which number it tells us. But the

431
00:24:19,519 --> 00:24:23,799
bottom line is the power is about six, the speed

432
00:24:23,839 --> 00:24:27,319
of expansion is say half the speed of light or more,

433
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:31,720
which is crazy fast, and the constant is such that

434
00:24:32,079 --> 00:24:34,319
we right now are sort of in the middle of

435
00:24:34,319 --> 00:24:38,039
the distribution when these things appear in the universe. And

436
00:24:38,839 --> 00:24:42,759
that implies that advanced life like that can expand in

437
00:24:42,799 --> 00:24:46,440
the univer is be visible appears about once per million galaxies,

438
00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:50,960
so it's really rare. Then there's really unlikely there's another

439
00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:53,400
one in our galaxy if it's once per million galaxies.

440
00:24:54,279 --> 00:24:56,960
And if we were to head out and succeed to

441
00:24:57,039 --> 00:24:59,559
expand the universe and grow and grow as fast as

442
00:24:59,599 --> 00:25:01,839
we can, say over half the speed of light, it

443
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:04,279
would be roughly a billion years until we met the

444
00:25:04,279 --> 00:25:04,920
nearest neighbor.

445
00:25:07,519 --> 00:25:07,920
Speaker 1: Wow.

446
00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:10,400
Speaker 2: So's those are key parameters. So I promised you numbers.

447
00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:13,039
So those are numbers. Now they're rough, you know, within

448
00:25:13,039 --> 00:25:15,920
a factor of say four or something, but they're better

449
00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:19,000
than what I told you. For the great filter, again,

450
00:25:19,039 --> 00:25:22,160
we have a simple three parameter model. We fit each

451
00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:24,680
of the parameters to data. Then we basically have a

452
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:28,920
simple model of the distribution of aliens in spacetime. And

453
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:34,400
this model explains why we're so crazy early. So you

454
00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:38,519
might think fourteen million years is not early, but the

455
00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:44,480
average star will last five trillion years. Wow, And life

456
00:25:44,519 --> 00:25:46,359
is much more likely to show up on a long

457
00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:48,400
lived star than a short lived star because of this

458
00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:52,680
power of six. So we're five billion years into our star,

459
00:25:53,319 --> 00:25:56,119
but five trillion is a factor of one thousand longer,

460
00:25:56,680 --> 00:25:59,079
and life has a chance of a factor of one

461
00:25:59,079 --> 00:26:01,319
thousand to the power six more likely to show up

462
00:26:01,319 --> 00:26:03,119
toward the end of one of these long lived stars

463
00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:05,680
than one of our short lived stars like ours. So

464
00:26:05,759 --> 00:26:09,880
we are crazy early in this distribution. And the reason

465
00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:13,720
is this analysis saying we're early assumes that the universe

466
00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:17,119
would just sit and wait empty for us. Whenever we

467
00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:19,640
were ready, it would be ready for us and we

468
00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:22,000
could just go in. But the model I just told

469
00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:23,839
you says, no, it's going to fill up soon, and

470
00:26:23,839 --> 00:26:27,680
then it'll be full. In a billion or two years,

471
00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:31,279
all these different alien civilizations out in the universe will

472
00:26:31,279 --> 00:26:34,119
have spread out and met each other, and then everything

473
00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:36,759
will be full. And then these long lived stars just

474
00:26:36,839 --> 00:26:39,960
cannot do anything with life because they will have been

475
00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:42,880
taken over by some advanced civilization and remade it for

476
00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:45,720
their purposes, and then they can't wait trillion years for

477
00:26:45,759 --> 00:26:50,400
life to a bole. So this is the simple model

478
00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:53,400
where aliens in space time. It's called grabby Aliens. You

479
00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:55,480
look at the website grabby aliens dot com. You could

480
00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:59,440
see more detail. So in our conversation here we could

481
00:26:59,440 --> 00:27:01,559
go into this model more or we could go in

482
00:27:01,559 --> 00:27:04,240
the direction of what might to say about UFOs. So

483
00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:05,759
I'll let you pick where you are at.

484
00:27:05,839 --> 00:27:08,079
Speaker 1: Yeah, No, I want since the show more or less

485
00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:11,119
about UFOs, I think we could head in that direction.

486
00:27:11,279 --> 00:27:13,759
All right, just a couple of you know, I mean,

487
00:27:14,200 --> 00:27:18,680
kind of off topic questions, but still, you know, I

488
00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:23,400
always want an opportunity to ask someone like you, you

489
00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:26,200
know what I mean? Do you think we'll ever figure

490
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:30,240
out what would cause the first spark of life? Of

491
00:27:30,319 --> 00:27:33,559
life on any planet? You know? I mean that's you know,

492
00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:37,279
people talk about panspermia and all that, the possibility of that,

493
00:27:37,519 --> 00:27:39,680
but I just that part is interesting.

494
00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:41,880
Speaker 2: Think about how much we've learned in even just the

495
00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:46,119
last century. Yeah, and then think about a million years,

496
00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:49,519
which is ten thousand times longer, And that's a tiny

497
00:27:49,559 --> 00:27:53,359
fraction of fourteen billion years. So if we spand out

498
00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:56,200
and we spend a billion years and then finally meet

499
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:58,880
other aliens in that billion years, we're going to learn

500
00:27:59,599 --> 00:28:02,200
a lot. We're basically going to learn everything we can

501
00:28:02,319 --> 00:28:04,720
learn about the physical universe around us. And I'm pretty

502
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:08,799
sure that'll tell us what which scenarios were most likely

503
00:28:08,839 --> 00:28:09,519
for life to start.

504
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:14,960
Speaker 1: Interesting, I have a friend named Mark D'Antonio. He's an astronomer,

505
00:28:15,319 --> 00:28:18,440
and he was at a conference and I saw when

506
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:20,519
I saw I met him the first time, he had

507
00:28:20,519 --> 00:28:23,359
to roll of toilet paper and the roller toilet paper

508
00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:25,559
was taped on both sides, and then he said, this

509
00:28:25,599 --> 00:28:28,160
is the Earth, the beginning of Earth. And then he

510
00:28:28,240 --> 00:28:31,200
started rolling the toilet paper out. It comes like halfway

511
00:28:31,240 --> 00:28:34,000
around the room and he says, and here's you know,

512
00:28:34,119 --> 00:28:36,720
first life. And then he comes around a little further

513
00:28:36,759 --> 00:28:39,839
and then on the very end of this long right

514
00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:43,720
roller toilet paper was human existence like half an inch.

515
00:28:43,599 --> 00:28:46,880
Speaker 2: Es human existence is like a million years. But if

516
00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:48,799
you think about just the last one hundred years, how

517
00:28:48,839 --> 00:28:51,519
much we've learned. I mean, we're clearly on a rapid

518
00:28:51,559 --> 00:28:55,160
tear for learning more so whatever, you know, maybe the

519
00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:57,240
raid will flow down a lot for some obstacles we

520
00:28:57,240 --> 00:28:59,440
can't see now, but clearly we're going to learn vastly

521
00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:01,240
more than we know now. So that seems like the

522
00:29:01,279 --> 00:29:02,000
sort of thing will learn.

523
00:29:02,519 --> 00:29:06,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know, again off topic a little, do

524
00:29:06,759 --> 00:29:10,079
you think AI is going to really assist in like

525
00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:13,880
advancing us a lot more in knowledge in things like

526
00:29:14,079 --> 00:29:14,920
what you work.

527
00:29:14,799 --> 00:29:19,039
Speaker 2: With on the long time scales, it just seems obvious

528
00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:24,000
that competition within civilizations will push for the more efficient

529
00:29:24,039 --> 00:29:29,839
implementations of intelligence and activity and manufacture and everything, and

530
00:29:29,839 --> 00:29:35,119
that artificially constructed things will just beat out biosquishy things

531
00:29:35,119 --> 00:29:37,680
like us, like we were the initial things to get

532
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:40,799
it started. But clearly, like in the rest of our economy,

533
00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:44,240
you know, we make planes instead of birds, cars instead

534
00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:48,920
of horses. You know, just making things deliberately artificially has

535
00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:52,119
just beat out trying to jerry rig some bio squishy

536
00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:53,279
thing to do what want.

537
00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:55,680
Speaker 3: I never thought of it like that, but you're right,

538
00:29:57,119 --> 00:29:59,640
we don't make I mean, it may take another ten

539
00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:03,160
thousand years or something, but clearly, on a million years timescale,

540
00:30:03,279 --> 00:30:05,559
all of our descendants are basically going to be artificial.

541
00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:07,920
Speaker 2: If there's any biosquishy things, they're going to be left

542
00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:11,200
in zoos somewhere to be you know, some museum copies

543
00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:13,480
to remember help people remember what stuff used to be like.

544
00:30:13,559 --> 00:30:17,680
But you know, basically the future is artificial, including intelligence.

545
00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:21,519
Speaker 1: So wow, wow, that's fascinating. So yeah, I love this.

546
00:30:21,839 --> 00:30:25,279
I love the futurists. You know that, uh, that part

547
00:30:25,319 --> 00:30:28,599
of uh, that's fascinating to me. But okay, so you

548
00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:30,519
said something about the grab an alien.

549
00:30:31,039 --> 00:30:33,960
Speaker 2: Is that the grabbyliens dot com. If you want to

550
00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:37,079
hear more about this mathematical model and what were the

551
00:30:37,160 --> 00:30:39,200
key pieces of data that we used, and you know,

552
00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:42,200
the uncertainty in it and how we got these numbers.

553
00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:47,839
But basically, you know, once per million galaxies sounds pretty rare,

554
00:30:47,839 --> 00:30:49,599
but there's a lot more than a million galaxies in

555
00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:51,160
the universe, so it means there's really a lot of

556
00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:54,480
alien civilizations out there. So it's pretty sure that if

557
00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:56,839
we kill ourselves, the universe is still going to get

558
00:30:56,839 --> 00:31:01,319
filled with filled with advanced life. We advanced life in

559
00:31:01,319 --> 00:31:05,759
the universe isn't up to us. But what happens in

560
00:31:05,799 --> 00:31:08,759
our area of the universe, the nearest million galaxies for

561
00:31:08,799 --> 00:31:10,799
the next two billion years, that is up to us.

562
00:31:12,079 --> 00:31:14,400
And that's that's a lot of mistake, so we should

563
00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:16,319
still try to do our best about.

564
00:31:16,119 --> 00:31:20,680
Speaker 1: It, right yep. So I just want to let the

565
00:31:20,720 --> 00:31:23,319
listener know that in the show notes, I have both

566
00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:27,000
the great filter and I it's all in your bio

567
00:31:27,039 --> 00:31:31,240
that I found and also the would you call.

568
00:31:31,079 --> 00:31:33,119
Speaker 2: It grab grabby Aliens dot.

569
00:31:33,359 --> 00:31:35,960
Speaker 1: Yes, yeah, grab the aliens? I got it.

570
00:31:36,039 --> 00:31:39,759
Speaker 2: Okay, all right, okay, So now you want to go

571
00:31:39,880 --> 00:31:42,559
through the UFO thing, right I do. All right, let's

572
00:31:42,599 --> 00:31:44,480
do it. But let's be methodical. Let's let's go a

573
00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:47,960
step by step, right, okay, okay. So first of all,

574
00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:50,960
I'm going to classify two different kinds of things to

575
00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:54,400
think about here in Baysian analysis. So this is a

576
00:31:54,519 --> 00:31:57,119
standard way we think about how to figure out the

577
00:31:57,160 --> 00:32:01,039
probability of things in our world. There's two steps in

578
00:32:01,039 --> 00:32:05,359
an analysis of any conclusion, like are you know UFOs

579
00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:09,400
aliens are some UFOs aliens? Say? One is what we

580
00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:14,079
call a prior, how plausible are various scenarios just on

581
00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:17,119
basic grounds of you know, what makes sense in terms

582
00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:19,720
of what we know. And another is what we call

583
00:32:20,039 --> 00:32:22,599
the posterior, which is based on a likelihood just looking

584
00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:26,880
at particular pieces of evidence. And for each piece of evidence,

585
00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:29,759
you want to say, how likely is that piece of

586
00:32:29,839 --> 00:32:32,720
evidence to have arisen depending on different assumptions we could

587
00:32:32,759 --> 00:32:37,839
make about its origin. So for any say, particular UFO siting,

588
00:32:37,839 --> 00:32:42,920
I'd say there's roughly four main categories of explanation. One

589
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:46,960
is just delusion and error, and that's the easiest one.

590
00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:49,079
People want to go forward to dismiss it because you know,

591
00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:50,480
you just want to get rid of it because it

592
00:32:50,519 --> 00:32:53,599
sounds kind of crazy, right. Delusion and error one category

593
00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:59,880
of explanations. Second category hoaxes, lies and hoaxes. This is

594
00:33:00,119 --> 00:33:02,960
an accident. Somebody is purposely setting things up and lying

595
00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:06,000
in order to trick you into believing something. And that

596
00:33:06,359 --> 00:33:09,279
has happened in the past. That's a real thing, okay.

597
00:33:10,039 --> 00:33:14,640
Third is there are organizations somewhere around here on Earth

598
00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:19,759
or originating from Earth, say recently, that just have a

599
00:33:19,799 --> 00:33:24,880
lot more powerful capabilities than they've led on And UFOs

600
00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:29,799
are basically seeing those vastly more powerful capabilities of some

601
00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:35,200
organization on Earth near Earth came from Earth, and that's

602
00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:38,880
what they are. And the fourth explanation is the same

603
00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:41,359
as that, except not from Earth, not from here recently,

604
00:33:41,400 --> 00:33:44,319
at least not from here now. So those are our

605
00:33:44,319 --> 00:33:48,200
for main explanations. And then there's two steps of the analysis.

606
00:33:48,240 --> 00:33:51,160
One is, okay, just looking at these categories, ignoring any

607
00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:53,680
particular piece of evidence, how likely do these things seem?

608
00:33:53,720 --> 00:33:55,680
That is, how often have these things happen in the past?

609
00:33:55,759 --> 00:33:58,839
You know, how much do you have to twist what

610
00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:02,359
you know to make it makes sense? That's called the

611
00:34:02,359 --> 00:34:04,319
prior and the other is the likely. You look at

612
00:34:04,319 --> 00:34:08,280
a particular thing, like the Kniamts sightings of the tic tac,

613
00:34:08,679 --> 00:34:11,599
and you say, okay, looking at the details of that explanation,

614
00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:14,559
how plausibly is it that these people were just drunk

615
00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:18,480
or you know, delusional on drugs or what you know,

616
00:34:18,639 --> 00:34:21,639
or just you know, blinked and saw something weird to

617
00:34:21,639 --> 00:34:23,320
put the speck in their eye? Who knows? Right? That's

618
00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:28,039
one second is could they just be lying? Somebody put

619
00:34:28,039 --> 00:34:30,199
them up to it and and you know they've got

620
00:34:30,199 --> 00:34:33,079
a program and a plan and there's a lie here.

621
00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:35,840
That's the second one. From the details of the thing,

622
00:34:35,880 --> 00:34:39,039
you say, if that were true, would that make sense

623
00:34:39,079 --> 00:34:41,000
what we see? And you're looking at the details of

624
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:44,000
what you see to say, you know, how consistent could

625
00:34:44,039 --> 00:34:46,960
the lie be? Basically, you know, how likely is it

626
00:34:47,039 --> 00:34:49,840
that nobody would tell on them? Right? Could you see

627
00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:51,360
it in their eyes? Right? You're going to try to

628
00:34:51,400 --> 00:34:53,280
go through the details of the scenario and try to

629
00:34:53,519 --> 00:34:56,000
match that to the hypothesis and say how likely is

630
00:34:56,039 --> 00:34:59,800
this these details to appear if this were the truth?

631
00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:02,920
And you can do that for each of the four hypotheses,

632
00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:07,000
and that would be the likelihood. So when we these

633
00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:09,559
are the two things to do when you're analyzing any hypothesis,

634
00:35:09,559 --> 00:35:14,320
including UFOs, is first think of the prior, what's just

635
00:35:14,639 --> 00:35:17,800
on basic principles, which things are how plausible? And the

636
00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:21,119
other looking at any particular piece of evidence, how likely

637
00:35:21,159 --> 00:35:25,119
could that have come from the different scenarios. So I

638
00:35:25,199 --> 00:35:28,719
want to say that I've looked at some of the reports,

639
00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:30,559
like the Nimess thing, and I got to say, it

640
00:35:30,639 --> 00:35:37,000
isn't easy to dismiss and hoaxes. I'm sorry, Delusions and

641
00:35:37,400 --> 00:35:41,400
errors are just hard for me to buy for at

642
00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:48,159
least the dozen most prominent cases. Okay, I can't dismiss

643
00:35:48,159 --> 00:35:52,639
hoaxes and lies so well because people can lie pretty

644
00:35:52,639 --> 00:35:57,559
well when they want to, But delusions, I'm going to

645
00:35:57,639 --> 00:36:02,679
say no. But I'm not an expert on these particular cases,

646
00:36:02,679 --> 00:36:04,079
and there are other people who are, and so I'm

647
00:36:04,079 --> 00:36:06,400
just going to stand up and claim to be an expert.

648
00:36:06,559 --> 00:36:08,079
But I am going to claim to be an expert

649
00:36:08,079 --> 00:36:11,440
on the prior. Why because I did this world class

650
00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:14,239
work on We're are aliens in space time, So at

651
00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:17,000
least for the aliens part of the prior, I think

652
00:36:17,519 --> 00:36:20,159
I'm a world class expert. So it's my job to

653
00:36:20,239 --> 00:36:22,679
address this question, whether I want to or not. I mean,

654
00:36:22,679 --> 00:36:25,400
as you know, there is a bit of academic disapproval

655
00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:30,519
for the topic, and people have been shamed or excluded

656
00:36:30,519 --> 00:36:33,280
on the basis of the association. And I'm willing, but

657
00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:37,119
I got to figure. Look, it's my job here. If

658
00:36:37,199 --> 00:36:39,559
I stand up and say I'm an expert on where

659
00:36:39,599 --> 00:36:42,119
are aliens in space time, then I got to be

660
00:36:42,599 --> 00:36:45,519
someone who speaks to this UFO thing. So that's how

661
00:36:45,519 --> 00:36:48,480
I want to locate my expertise here. It's only on

662
00:36:48,559 --> 00:36:50,519
the prior, and only on the prior of one of

663
00:36:50,559 --> 00:36:54,039
these four categories. I have some opinions about the others,

664
00:36:54,079 --> 00:36:55,800
if you want to talk about them, but it's mainly

665
00:36:56,079 --> 00:37:00,599
on this one that I am the most expert. So

666
00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:03,000
my job here would be to say, given what we

667
00:37:03,119 --> 00:37:08,280
know about the universe and plausibly where aliens are in

668
00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:12,199
the universe according to our analysis, how believable is it

669
00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:16,119
that some of the UFOs we see actually are aliens.

670
00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:22,440
In order to answer that question, I basically need to

671
00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:24,920
take what I know and construct a scenario in which

672
00:37:24,960 --> 00:37:28,960
that's true. And when putting the scenario together, I need

673
00:37:29,000 --> 00:37:33,840
to make as few crazy assumptions as possible. That is,

674
00:37:34,239 --> 00:37:37,400
every scenario I'm every assumption I add to the scenario

675
00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:40,039
has to be penalized according to how unlikely it is.

676
00:37:40,719 --> 00:37:42,360
And then at the end I'm going to have a

677
00:37:42,480 --> 00:37:45,760
total penalty of the scenario, which is the prior basically

678
00:37:45,800 --> 00:37:48,800
for the scenario. And the key question is how low

679
00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:52,599
is that prior. But let's first put a reference point

680
00:37:52,639 --> 00:37:57,199
for basically how low a prior needs to be in

681
00:37:57,280 --> 00:37:59,320
order to sort of do things like we do in

682
00:37:59,360 --> 00:38:03,000
the rest of the world. So we have murder trials,

683
00:38:04,159 --> 00:38:07,000
and I would say the prior for any particular murder

684
00:38:07,039 --> 00:38:10,079
trials roughly one in a million. That is, on average,

685
00:38:10,159 --> 00:38:13,800
one in a thousand people get killed and are murdered

686
00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:17,440
as opposed to just die, and that person who died

687
00:38:17,480 --> 00:38:20,800
has roughly a thousand people around them who might plausibly

688
00:38:20,800 --> 00:38:24,559
have done it. So an accusation that this person was

689
00:38:24,599 --> 00:38:27,440
killed by that person the prior there is roughly one

690
00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:28,000
in a million.

691
00:38:28,880 --> 00:38:29,239
Speaker 1: Wow.

692
00:38:29,599 --> 00:38:31,760
Speaker 2: But that doesn't mean we say this is crazy and

693
00:38:31,840 --> 00:38:34,480
just turn murder accusations away. We say, look, a trial

694
00:38:34,559 --> 00:38:37,840
is capable of evaluating something with one in a million prior.

695
00:38:39,360 --> 00:38:42,480
The physical evidence you can actually introduce in a trial,

696
00:38:42,679 --> 00:38:45,400
is quite commonly able to overcome a one in a

697
00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:48,000
million prior and make you believe afterward that, yeah, this

698
00:38:48,039 --> 00:38:51,639
guy did it. That's just a fact of the legal system.

699
00:38:52,119 --> 00:38:54,719
We do murder trials all the time. We convict people

700
00:38:54,719 --> 00:38:58,239
of murder all the time. So clearly, ordinary physical evidence

701
00:38:58,280 --> 00:39:00,400
is quite commonly able to overcome I'm a one in

702
00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:03,559
a million prior. Now, if it was instead one in

703
00:39:03,599 --> 00:39:05,119
a million, which is ten to the six, it was

704
00:39:05,159 --> 00:39:07,719
one and ten to the thirty or something, then you

705
00:39:07,760 --> 00:39:09,719
might just say, look, I don't care what evidence you have.

706
00:39:10,159 --> 00:39:12,280
There's just no way your evidence is going to overcome

707
00:39:12,360 --> 00:39:15,599
how crazy unlikely this is. You don't forget it. And

708
00:39:15,639 --> 00:39:19,000
that's what many you of go skeptical skeptics basically say.

709
00:39:19,679 --> 00:39:23,039
They say, this theory you've got is just crazy. It's

710
00:39:23,079 --> 00:39:26,280
so crazy that if if someone says they think they

711
00:39:26,320 --> 00:39:28,079
saw it, I'm going to believe they went delusional and

712
00:39:28,119 --> 00:39:33,119
crazy rather than believe what they say they saw. So again,

713
00:39:33,480 --> 00:39:36,800
that's the standards, like one in a million, fine, one

714
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:40,559
in ten of the thirty not fine, okay. So, and

715
00:39:40,599 --> 00:39:41,960
that's what we're going to find out when I put

716
00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:43,679
together a start, and the question is going to be, well,

717
00:39:43,679 --> 00:39:46,519
what's the prior going to be? And my answer is

718
00:39:46,559 --> 00:39:48,920
it's going to be between one and a thousand and

719
00:39:48,960 --> 00:39:52,719
one and ten thousand, so more than one in a million.

720
00:39:53,239 --> 00:39:57,000
So it's plenty big enough that if some people say

721
00:39:57,039 --> 00:40:00,360
they saw something, you should actually look at what they say.

722
00:40:00,639 --> 00:40:03,079
So right, it's you know, like in a murder trial,

723
00:40:03,119 --> 00:40:05,159
you don't just say, well, yeah, this is crazy, so

724
00:40:05,159 --> 00:40:06,559
I'm not gonna listen to your evidence. You got you

725
00:40:06,559 --> 00:40:10,519
got to listen, right, And similarly here, I'd say this

726
00:40:10,599 --> 00:40:12,880
is big enough that you got to listen. It's not

727
00:40:12,920 --> 00:40:14,880
so big that without the evidence, I would just say

728
00:40:14,880 --> 00:40:17,559
it's likely to be true. Look, one of a thousand

729
00:40:17,639 --> 00:40:19,559
means nine hundred ninety nine times out of one thousand,

730
00:40:19,639 --> 00:40:23,079
it isn't true, right, But that's the prior. That's before

731
00:40:23,119 --> 00:40:26,480
you heard any evidence. But if people are saying they

732
00:40:26,519 --> 00:40:30,000
saw stuff, which they apparently are, then you got to

733
00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:33,360
look at that evidence to draw your final conclusion if

734
00:40:33,400 --> 00:40:35,119
you think the prior is high enough. And again, my

735
00:40:35,280 --> 00:40:37,920
job is to figure out what the prior is. So

736
00:40:38,320 --> 00:40:40,280
if you want to, we can walk through what is

737
00:40:40,280 --> 00:40:42,719
this scenario I tried to construct and how did I

738
00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:47,079
get this prior number? But that's where I sit in

739
00:40:47,119 --> 00:40:48,159
the space of the topic.

740
00:40:49,079 --> 00:40:51,039
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't mind. Let's walk through it a little bit.

741
00:40:51,719 --> 00:40:57,000
Speaker 2: All right. So the main thing to notice is the

742
00:40:57,039 --> 00:40:59,039
things that are going to be hard to explain. That

743
00:40:59,119 --> 00:41:01,880
we need to find something in the scenario to make

744
00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:06,119
to explain what's hard to explain. Okay, So first of all, remember,

745
00:41:08,159 --> 00:41:10,480
my simple model of aliens has them appear once per

746
00:41:10,519 --> 00:41:13,800
million galaxies, and we meet in a million years. So

747
00:41:14,920 --> 00:41:18,320
UFOs is aliens has aliens being a lot closer to

748
00:41:18,400 --> 00:41:21,599
us in space time than this simple model suggests. Right,

749
00:41:22,360 --> 00:41:23,920
So that's the first thing. How about what the hell

750
00:41:23,960 --> 00:41:27,440
are they doing right next to us, so close that

751
00:41:27,679 --> 00:41:31,559
they're visiting? That's at odds with the simple analysis, right,

752
00:41:31,599 --> 00:41:33,559
So that the first thing we need is to explain

753
00:41:33,679 --> 00:41:39,519
why the hell are they close in space and time? Okay. Secondly,

754
00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:42,800
if they were close in space and time and more

755
00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:44,639
advanced than us, they would have to be in order

756
00:41:44,679 --> 00:41:47,360
to be here now, because it would be crazy unlikely

757
00:41:47,400 --> 00:41:49,239
for them to have shown up exactly the same time.

758
00:41:49,320 --> 00:41:51,000
So they have to be more advanced to be here

759
00:41:51,159 --> 00:41:54,320
with us now. You know, at least a million years

760
00:41:54,360 --> 00:41:58,079
plausibly ten million years more advanced than us. That would

761
00:41:58,079 --> 00:42:02,559
be plenty of time to fill the galaxy and remake everything,

762
00:42:02,960 --> 00:42:06,280
but they haven't. Why not We need an explanation for that.

763
00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:09,559
So first, what are they doing here now, really close

764
00:42:09,599 --> 00:42:11,480
to us, when the nearest one on average should be

765
00:42:11,519 --> 00:42:15,559
you know, a million galaxies away? Secondly, why didn't they

766
00:42:15,760 --> 00:42:21,679
fill the galaxy? You know, use it? And then the

767
00:42:21,760 --> 00:42:26,360
last one is the standard description of UFOs is puzzling

768
00:42:26,400 --> 00:42:29,719
in the following way. If they were ten million years

769
00:42:29,719 --> 00:42:33,199
more advanced than us and they wanted to be here,

770
00:42:33,920 --> 00:42:36,440
they could have done one of the following two things

771
00:42:36,440 --> 00:42:39,239
would have been really easy. First, they could have just

772
00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:41,800
been really obvious. They could show up on the White

773
00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:44,679
House lawn. They could blow up some buildings. They could

774
00:42:44,840 --> 00:42:48,000
just make it completely obvious that they're here. There's just

775
00:42:48,119 --> 00:42:51,519
no reason that that would be impossible. On the other hand,

776
00:42:52,000 --> 00:42:54,400
they could also be completely invisible. They could be in

777
00:42:54,480 --> 00:42:57,679
black spheres orbiting that we couldn't possibly see, and they

778
00:42:57,719 --> 00:42:59,960
could see, you know, from there, any detail they want to.

779
00:43:00,920 --> 00:43:03,639
There's no reason they couldn't know everything they wanted to

780
00:43:03,679 --> 00:43:05,880
know about us in as much detail as they want

781
00:43:05,920 --> 00:43:08,760
without us noticing anything about them that would be completely

782
00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:11,480
feasible for something ten million years more advanced than us.

783
00:43:12,719 --> 00:43:14,880
So the puzzle is they didn't pick either of these

784
00:43:14,880 --> 00:43:18,639
two options. Right, The reports are they're hanging out at

785
00:43:18,639 --> 00:43:23,719
the edge of visibility. They're being noticeable, but they're not

786
00:43:24,400 --> 00:43:28,440
being obvious, and they're not doing much. Okay, they're not

787
00:43:28,480 --> 00:43:32,400
building anything, they're not you know, reaping and sewing anything.

788
00:43:32,400 --> 00:43:36,159
They're not blowing anything up. They're just wiggling around at

789
00:43:36,159 --> 00:43:38,679
the edge of visibility. Like, we need to explain that.

790
00:43:39,880 --> 00:43:42,440
So these are the three main things we need to

791
00:43:42,440 --> 00:43:50,159
explain in a theory of what the hell if some

792
00:43:50,360 --> 00:43:52,880
UFOs really are aliens? Like, how does that make any sense?

793
00:43:53,039 --> 00:43:55,880
So that's the task here. How could it make any

794
00:43:55,920 --> 00:43:59,719
sense that some UFOs are aliens? That's what I'm struggling

795
00:43:59,760 --> 00:44:02,320
to do, and honestly, like it is a struggle, right,

796
00:44:02,440 --> 00:44:05,480
You got to admit, if there's any topic I've ever

797
00:44:05,519 --> 00:44:08,480
come across that try that basically seems to undermined a

798
00:44:08,480 --> 00:44:11,239
lot of assumptions we have about stuff. It's the idea

799
00:44:11,239 --> 00:44:14,119
that UFOs or aliens. And that's exactly why the intuition

800
00:44:14,159 --> 00:44:17,280
of a lot of people is that's just crazy, and

801
00:44:17,320 --> 00:44:21,079
it's not a crazy intuition. It's not a crazy intuition

802
00:44:21,199 --> 00:44:25,079
to think some hypothesis that requires that you reject enormous

803
00:44:25,119 --> 00:44:27,480
amounts of all the things you've ever believed that stuff

804
00:44:28,360 --> 00:44:30,599
might not just be so crazy and likely that you

805
00:44:30,639 --> 00:44:33,360
should just dismiss it, which is, you know what most

806
00:44:33,360 --> 00:44:37,000
authorities do. So then it's a surprise from that point

807
00:44:37,039 --> 00:44:39,280
of view if I can construct a snaro with a prior,

808
00:44:39,360 --> 00:44:42,960
say one to ten thousand, that actually makes sense of it.

809
00:44:43,480 --> 00:44:46,079
But that's my job here, okay, and that's what I

810
00:44:46,079 --> 00:44:47,920
claim to have been able to do, is to come

811
00:44:48,000 --> 00:44:50,159
up with a not so crazy scenario that makes sense

812
00:44:50,159 --> 00:44:52,039
of this. But these are the things we need to

813
00:44:52,039 --> 00:44:54,880
make sense of. Why are they so close? Why didn't

814
00:44:54,920 --> 00:44:57,519
they do anything with all the space around us? And

815
00:44:57,559 --> 00:44:59,039
then why are they hanging out at the edge of

816
00:44:59,079 --> 00:45:01,239
visibility not doing anything as far as we can.

817
00:45:01,159 --> 00:45:04,880
Speaker 1: Tell, right, you know, and they're not you know. I'll

818
00:45:04,920 --> 00:45:07,400
let you continue on, but just to add a little

819
00:45:07,440 --> 00:45:11,119
bit to it, because people ask me, you know, questions sometimes,

820
00:45:11,119 --> 00:45:14,239
and one of the questions they ask is why do

821
00:45:14,320 --> 00:45:18,239
they have lights? You know exactly I mean, But it's

822
00:45:18,320 --> 00:45:21,280
like point yeah, what's the point. And you know, some

823
00:45:21,320 --> 00:45:23,239
people say, well, it might be part of their propulsion

824
00:45:23,360 --> 00:45:25,679
or whatever, you know, but still we.

825
00:45:25,719 --> 00:45:27,760
Speaker 2: Need a more basic question, what the hell are they doing?

826
00:45:27,800 --> 00:45:29,199
What's their point? What's their purpose?

827
00:45:29,280 --> 00:45:32,840
Speaker 1: Exactly? Yeah, that is one of the three major questions

828
00:45:33,000 --> 00:45:35,000
when it comes to UFOs. What do they want?

829
00:45:35,480 --> 00:45:38,639
Speaker 2: You know? But yeah, look, most people they're kind of

830
00:45:38,679 --> 00:45:40,880
not very theoretical and trying to be agnostic, and so

831
00:45:40,920 --> 00:45:44,400
they just say who knows. But I'm a theorist. That's

832
00:45:44,440 --> 00:45:46,000
what I do in all the different areas of my

833
00:45:46,039 --> 00:45:50,280
intellectual endeavor. I figure out what our best understanding things

834
00:45:50,320 --> 00:45:52,599
are and put it together to make sense and explain things.

835
00:45:52,599 --> 00:45:54,880
So that's what I'm going to do here, is to say,

836
00:45:55,239 --> 00:45:56,760
I'm going to be much more ambitious. I'm going to

837
00:45:56,800 --> 00:45:59,760
say that I want a story for how this makes sense,

838
00:46:00,880 --> 00:46:02,559
and that's what I want to put together. But again

839
00:46:03,159 --> 00:46:04,760
it's going to come with a penalty. That is, I'm

840
00:46:04,800 --> 00:46:07,559
gonna have to make some assumptions that might plausibly be

841
00:46:07,639 --> 00:46:13,199
faulse and so you know, but I have to count

842
00:46:13,519 --> 00:46:16,400
how implausible they are in my analysis. All right, So

843
00:46:16,440 --> 00:46:18,079
are you ready to make some assumptions?

844
00:46:18,920 --> 00:46:21,239
Speaker 1: Sure? All let's go just to let you know. In

845
00:46:21,679 --> 00:46:24,559
five minutes, KGRA is going off the air, So I'm

846
00:46:24,559 --> 00:46:27,800
just going to say goodbye to everyone there now, well

847
00:46:28,239 --> 00:46:31,599
the pause here, and I'll be back well later on

848
00:46:31,719 --> 00:46:35,760
this evening with Ron Janix with my co host Dan Elioto.

849
00:46:35,880 --> 00:46:38,440
In next week we're gonna be on with Danny Shehan.

850
00:46:38,760 --> 00:46:40,679
So anyway, we'll we.

851
00:46:40,679 --> 00:46:44,280
Speaker 2: Just did the perfect cliffhanger here, right, We just promise

852
00:46:44,400 --> 00:46:46,719
to explain all this for people. If only you'll come

853
00:46:46,760 --> 00:46:49,159
back and listen to the rest of this episode, we

854
00:46:49,199 --> 00:46:51,519
will answer this burning question in your mind. But ha ha,

855
00:46:52,119 --> 00:46:53,599
you'll have to come back to the rest of the

856
00:46:53,599 --> 00:46:55,559
show to find out. I didn't plan that, but we

857
00:46:55,599 --> 00:46:56,239
did that pretty well.

858
00:46:56,320 --> 00:46:59,920
Speaker 1: Yeah that was good. Yeah, yeah, all right, okay the

859
00:47:00,480 --> 00:47:04,440
radio producers laughing. You just sent me out. Yeah, there

860
00:47:04,519 --> 00:47:04,800
we go.

861
00:47:05,000 --> 00:47:06,800
Speaker 2: Cliffhanger. You know you want to find out, you have

862
00:47:06,880 --> 00:47:10,719
to come to the next episode, all right. So the

863
00:47:10,760 --> 00:47:13,800
first assumption I'm going to make is panspermia, which you

864
00:47:13,840 --> 00:47:18,559
mentioned before. That's what can cause a correlation between them

865
00:47:18,599 --> 00:47:20,960
and us. We need a correlation in space and time,

866
00:47:21,000 --> 00:47:22,840
and the way to do that is a common origin.

867
00:47:23,800 --> 00:47:26,639
There was an Eden a long time ago, and that

868
00:47:26,679 --> 00:47:30,760
planet partially developed life. Life evolved in that planet part

869
00:47:30,760 --> 00:47:33,840
of the way to where we are now, and then

870
00:47:34,360 --> 00:47:37,320
some rocks smashed into that planet, knocked a rock off

871
00:47:37,360 --> 00:47:39,760
that planet, and inside that rock with some of that life,

872
00:47:39,800 --> 00:47:43,800
and it drifted for maybe a long time until it

873
00:47:43,880 --> 00:47:48,280
reached our stellar nursery, which is where our star and

874
00:47:48,320 --> 00:47:52,400
planets were born, where ten thousand other stars and planets

875
00:47:52,400 --> 00:47:56,239
were born at the same time. So that's how stars

876
00:47:56,239 --> 00:47:58,400
are formed. They're stormed in a little nursery where lots

877
00:47:58,400 --> 00:48:01,280
are formed all at once. And in that nursery, rocks

878
00:48:01,320 --> 00:48:03,639
are flying back and forth really fast all the time,

879
00:48:03,719 --> 00:48:06,480
lots of them. And so if life came from the

880
00:48:06,519 --> 00:48:10,119
outside and seeded that nursery, it would likely seed not

881
00:48:10,239 --> 00:48:13,960
just one planet in the nursery, but lots and lots.

882
00:48:14,840 --> 00:48:18,079
So that means lots of planets around, lots of stars

883
00:48:18,119 --> 00:48:22,360
from that nursery would have life, not just us. And

884
00:48:22,400 --> 00:48:26,159
then what happens is this nursery drifts apart, and you know,

885
00:48:26,239 --> 00:48:29,039
within a few million years, they're spread out in a

886
00:48:29,119 --> 00:48:33,119
ring around the galaxy, and we can see them actually

887
00:48:33,159 --> 00:48:35,480
in telescopes because they all have the same spectrum. They

888
00:48:35,519 --> 00:48:38,159
all have the same mixture of chemical elements, and we

889
00:48:38,159 --> 00:48:40,480
can see from their spectrum that they would be with

890
00:48:40,519 --> 00:48:43,480
the siblings of us, and so we can see them,

891
00:48:43,519 --> 00:48:47,199
they can see us. All of the descendants from the

892
00:48:47,239 --> 00:48:49,760
same stellar nursery are spread out in a ring around

893
00:48:49,800 --> 00:48:54,320
the galaxy, all advancing along this path of the great filter,

894
00:48:54,599 --> 00:49:01,239
trying well, randomly progressing to become more advanced. The assumption

895
00:49:01,400 --> 00:49:03,679
is one of those other ones got to be advanced

896
00:49:03,719 --> 00:49:04,239
before us.

897
00:49:04,599 --> 00:49:09,760
Speaker 1: One mm hmm. So this woman just posted something in

898
00:49:09,840 --> 00:49:12,840
chat that's sort of related to kind of what we're

899
00:49:12,840 --> 00:49:15,800
talking about. I'm posting it here right now. Thank you

900
00:49:15,880 --> 00:49:18,000
Chris for that. How to account for the recent detection

901
00:49:18,079 --> 00:49:22,159
of dimethyl sulfide. You're familiar with this, yes.

902
00:49:22,079 --> 00:49:23,199
Speaker 2: Yes, I saw that in the news.

903
00:49:23,679 --> 00:49:24,000
Speaker 1: Yeah.

904
00:49:24,119 --> 00:49:26,920
Speaker 2: You know, basically, there's either life there or there isn't.

905
00:49:27,880 --> 00:49:30,840
It's one of the best evidences we've seen for maybe

906
00:49:30,880 --> 00:49:33,920
life being there. But many people are of course saying, look,

907
00:49:34,159 --> 00:49:36,400
chemistry is complicated. Maybe there's some other way we haven't

908
00:49:36,400 --> 00:49:38,320
figured out that you could get that chemical there, but

909
00:49:38,840 --> 00:49:42,800
it is intriguing. It's especially intriguing. Look, we've had evidence

910
00:49:42,800 --> 00:49:45,639
for life elsewhere in our solar system. Like that chemicals

911
00:49:45,679 --> 00:49:47,599
that you know mainly come from life that we found

912
00:49:47,679 --> 00:49:52,519
around other moons in our solar system. But if that

913
00:49:52,519 --> 00:49:55,039
that more likely has the same common origin as us,

914
00:49:55,079 --> 00:49:58,840
that is, that's like the same process that has life

915
00:49:58,840 --> 00:50:03,400
on Earth from a com an origin, because actually Earth

916
00:50:03,480 --> 00:50:06,039
cooled later than the outer Solar system, so actually the

917
00:50:06,079 --> 00:50:09,159
outer Solar system was a few hundred million years cooler first.

918
00:50:10,119 --> 00:50:12,679
So life, if it was in our solar system more

919
00:50:12,679 --> 00:50:16,239
plausibly started there and then spread to us than vice versa.

920
00:50:16,639 --> 00:50:19,719
But that doesn't really change. You know, we're pretty sure

921
00:50:19,719 --> 00:50:22,559
there's no aliens in our solar system, right We've looked

922
00:50:22,559 --> 00:50:24,519
at enough of the moons and stuff that you know,

923
00:50:25,639 --> 00:50:29,360
if if they were there, they're hiding. Okay, So but

924
00:50:29,440 --> 00:50:31,840
we're thinking about something that's not hiding. It just grows

925
00:50:31,920 --> 00:50:36,480
up and that's where it is. So so anyway, that

926
00:50:36,559 --> 00:50:39,920
evidence would suggest that it would be a separate origin,

927
00:50:40,119 --> 00:50:42,719
more separate at least than us. I don't think that

928
00:50:42,760 --> 00:50:46,440
star is one of our stellar nursery siblings. So if

929
00:50:46,480 --> 00:50:48,599
there's life there, that suggests simple life is just a

930
00:50:48,599 --> 00:50:52,000
lot more common than we thought, which means the early

931
00:50:52,039 --> 00:50:54,000
steps of the Great Filter are easier than we thought,

932
00:50:54,760 --> 00:50:57,400
which means the future is harder than we thought, which

933
00:50:57,440 --> 00:51:02,960
is bad news. But no, just be wary. Okay. So

934
00:51:03,079 --> 00:51:06,039
again we're trying to explain how it could make any

935
00:51:06,079 --> 00:51:08,480
sense that UFOs are aliens, and the first step is

936
00:51:08,559 --> 00:51:15,440
panspermias siblings other planets born in the same stellar nursery

937
00:51:15,719 --> 00:51:19,880
went along the same path as us, maybe thousands of them,

938
00:51:21,320 --> 00:51:24,280
but one of them got to advance life before we did,

939
00:51:25,119 --> 00:51:29,280
plausibly millions tens of millions of years, even more older

940
00:51:29,320 --> 00:51:32,880
than us. So that's the first assumption. First thing, we

941
00:51:32,880 --> 00:51:34,920
assume that gets them to be near us in space

942
00:51:34,960 --> 00:51:39,880
and time. Okay, But now the second thing is, but

943
00:51:40,159 --> 00:51:43,800
they didn't go colonize the galaxy, but they didn't change it,

944
00:51:43,800 --> 00:51:45,880
at least if they did, they just did a few

945
00:51:45,920 --> 00:51:48,519
surveys or something. They didn't go remake everything like they

946
00:51:48,559 --> 00:51:52,440
could have. So we're gonna need to just assume that

947
00:51:52,440 --> 00:51:55,719
that's they did that on purpose. It might be a

948
00:51:55,719 --> 00:51:59,400
religious meaning, it might be a governance reason. We can

949
00:51:59,440 --> 00:52:01,719
talk about plausible reasons why they might not want to.

950
00:52:01,760 --> 00:52:04,559
But they decided they did not want to colonize the universe,

951
00:52:04,639 --> 00:52:08,960
and they made a rule that nobody in their civilization

952
00:52:09,079 --> 00:52:12,360
was allowed to do that, and they successfully enforced that

953
00:52:12,480 --> 00:52:14,800
rule for tens of millions of years. So first of all,

954
00:52:14,800 --> 00:52:16,760
you got to admit, like, this isn't just writing some

955
00:52:16,960 --> 00:52:20,719
passing some bill. This is actually pretty damn hard. So

956
00:52:21,079 --> 00:52:24,119
that's you'll have to discount for the fact that you know,

957
00:52:24,119 --> 00:52:26,519
it's pretty plausible that somebody might want to do this.

958
00:52:26,599 --> 00:52:28,880
I could see our descendants wanting to do this, but

959
00:52:29,199 --> 00:52:34,280
actually achieving it. Well, that's more impressive. They actually successfully

960
00:52:34,960 --> 00:52:37,840
made a rule that was against anybody from within their

961
00:52:37,840 --> 00:52:42,159
civilization expanding out and colonizing because it just anyone leaving

962
00:52:42,199 --> 00:52:45,519
from their home couldn't have done it. All it takes

963
00:52:45,559 --> 00:52:48,800
is one probe that leaves the home world to colonize

964
00:52:48,840 --> 00:52:51,239
the galaxy, and it could do that in a million years.

965
00:52:51,840 --> 00:52:56,480
So they successfully prevented anyone from leaving to do that. Impressive.

966
00:52:58,039 --> 00:53:02,159
Now again that's the second as first pens Permia siblings. Secondly,

967
00:53:02,159 --> 00:53:05,480
they got a rule against expansion colonization. Maybe it's religious,

968
00:53:05,480 --> 00:53:09,480
maybe it's ecological, maybe it's governance and cultural. There's several

969
00:53:09,519 --> 00:53:13,480
plausible reasons, but they made that choice. Now, once we

970
00:53:13,800 --> 00:53:16,639
see that we've made that assumption, we no longer need

971
00:53:16,679 --> 00:53:20,119
to explain why they're here. A direct implication is they

972
00:53:20,159 --> 00:53:22,920
could see that any of their siblings would break their rule.

973
00:53:23,760 --> 00:53:25,440
So if they're going to enforce the rule, they have

974
00:53:25,480 --> 00:53:26,880
to not just do that at home. They have to

975
00:53:26,880 --> 00:53:29,119
go out to any of their siblings and enforce the

976
00:53:29,199 --> 00:53:32,159
rule on them. So that's why they would be here

977
00:53:32,199 --> 00:53:35,679
to enforce their rule. And we can also notice that

978
00:53:36,280 --> 00:53:38,320
an easy way to enforce the rule would have been

979
00:53:38,360 --> 00:53:42,559
to just destroy ourself, clearly, so we can also conclude

980
00:53:42,679 --> 00:53:45,440
they didn't want to do that for some reason. They

981
00:53:45,440 --> 00:53:49,599
have some degree of affiliation or empathy toward us, and

982
00:53:49,639 --> 00:53:53,440
they didn't want to just kill us all off. But

983
00:53:53,920 --> 00:53:58,519
they're here to enforce the rule. So we've gone a

984
00:53:58,519 --> 00:54:01,039
long way towards snorw know what their purposes here. So

985
00:54:01,119 --> 00:54:02,639
now from a purpose you can see you can go

986
00:54:02,679 --> 00:54:04,840
a lot further in predicting behavior if you know, like

987
00:54:04,920 --> 00:54:08,719
what the point is. We can already also infer Look,

988
00:54:10,079 --> 00:54:15,320
this expedition they sent here to enforce their rule itself

989
00:54:15,400 --> 00:54:19,320
risks their breaking the rule. This expedition, if it went rogue,

990
00:54:19,559 --> 00:54:21,119
well that would be the end of it too, right,

991
00:54:22,000 --> 00:54:26,320
So this expedition cannot be given a lot of freedom.

992
00:54:26,440 --> 00:54:28,559
It cannot be you know, said to just go there,

993
00:54:28,599 --> 00:54:30,639
figure it out, decide what to do. We trust you. No,

994
00:54:30,719 --> 00:54:34,119
they're not going to trust it, okay, So what that

995
00:54:34,159 --> 00:54:36,000
means is they had to figure out a strategy at

996
00:54:36,039 --> 00:54:39,280
their home world, a simple, robust strategy to send these

997
00:54:39,320 --> 00:54:42,199
people with and only give them the tools necessary to

998
00:54:42,199 --> 00:54:46,840
implement the strategy, and maybe you know, have political officers

999
00:54:46,880 --> 00:54:49,119
or other things to make sure they don't do anything else,

1000
00:54:49,840 --> 00:54:56,559
because again, this expedition risks the whole thing. So now

1001
00:54:56,599 --> 00:54:58,800
we have to ask, what simple strategy could they have

1002
00:54:58,800 --> 00:55:01,880
approved from the home world that would plausibly get us

1003
00:55:01,920 --> 00:55:08,199
to follow their rule without destroying us. And that's that's

1004
00:55:08,239 --> 00:55:11,039
what we need to explain. The strange strategy of hanging out,

1005
00:55:11,159 --> 00:55:15,360
hanging out at the intermediate level of visibility, right, not

1006
00:55:15,400 --> 00:55:19,960
really obvious, not completely invisible. How does hanging out at

1007
00:55:20,000 --> 00:55:23,760
an intermediate level of visibility achieve their goal of having

1008
00:55:23,880 --> 00:55:28,440
us not break the rule? Is voluntarily? That's the puzzle.

1009
00:55:28,559 --> 00:55:31,599
That's the last thing. Once we explain that we're done, and.

1010
00:55:31,599 --> 00:55:35,840
Speaker 1: Would you say break the rule? You mean colonize, right,

1011
00:55:36,679 --> 00:55:37,159
go out.

1012
00:55:37,079 --> 00:55:39,000
Speaker 2: And mess with the universe in a big visible way.

1013
00:55:39,000 --> 00:55:40,599
Which they clearly didn't want to do.

1014
00:55:41,280 --> 00:55:41,599
Speaker 1: Hmm.

1015
00:55:42,360 --> 00:55:44,400
Speaker 2: Now, we don't know exactly how much messing with the

1016
00:55:44,440 --> 00:55:47,599
universe would bother them, but it's pretty clear they didn't

1017
00:55:47,639 --> 00:55:50,679
allow very much because we haven't been able to see anything.

1018
00:55:52,559 --> 00:55:54,360
But you know, maybe they all allow for a little bit.

1019
00:55:54,400 --> 00:55:56,800
But clearly they're worried that we would do more than

1020
00:55:56,840 --> 00:56:00,360
a little bit, which we do seem inclined to do, right,

1021
00:56:01,639 --> 00:56:04,280
you know, without them limiting us, we might well do

1022
00:56:04,360 --> 00:56:07,639
more than a little bit. Yeah, so they need to

1023
00:56:07,679 --> 00:56:11,840
be here to stop them. Okay, So now the last

1024
00:56:11,840 --> 00:56:17,079
assumption here is that they were social animals like we

1025
00:56:17,119 --> 00:56:21,119
are social animals, and social animals robustly have status hiarchies,

1026
00:56:22,000 --> 00:56:25,960
and on Earth at least, social animals can domesticate other

1027
00:56:26,000 --> 00:56:30,079
social animals by slipping into the top of their status. Harcky.

1028
00:56:30,239 --> 00:56:38,559
That's how humans domesticate horses, dogs and each other by

1029
00:56:38,599 --> 00:56:43,280
being the top dog. So we domesticate dog by basically

1030
00:56:43,480 --> 00:56:46,920
being the top dog and being more powerful and impressive

1031
00:56:46,920 --> 00:56:49,239
than the other dogs, and making our wishes known and

1032
00:56:49,280 --> 00:56:53,440
not being too hostile. That's how we domesticate dogs or

1033
00:56:53,920 --> 00:56:57,480
horses or the other animals we dovestigate. Now, most social

1034
00:56:57,519 --> 00:57:04,559
animals can't be domesticated actually, so you know, they had

1035
00:57:04,599 --> 00:57:07,199
to fear that in fact, we couldn't be domesticated. But

1036
00:57:07,320 --> 00:57:09,239
there's a chance that we could do be domesticated. And

1037
00:57:09,440 --> 00:57:12,000
if so, the way to do it was to slip

1038
00:57:12,039 --> 00:57:15,159
into the top of our status archy, the way we

1039
00:57:15,199 --> 00:57:19,719
domesticate other animals. So what this assumes that domestication is

1040
00:57:20,000 --> 00:57:22,639
a kind of universal thing among social animals everywhere in

1041
00:57:22,639 --> 00:57:25,000
the universe. It's not just a peculiar feature on Earth.

1042
00:57:25,480 --> 00:57:28,159
So it happened there. They understood it. They said, this

1043
00:57:28,280 --> 00:57:31,880
pretty good chance this advanced species is a social animal

1044
00:57:31,960 --> 00:57:35,679
that could be domesticated. Maybe they were domesticated themselves too,

1045
00:57:35,760 --> 00:57:38,079
so they understood, okay, domestication is the thing that happens

1046
00:57:38,159 --> 00:57:41,800
especially to intelligent, highly social species. And you know it

1047
00:57:41,880 --> 00:57:46,559
is true. Domestication works better for very social species because

1048
00:57:46,599 --> 00:57:49,280
they are more influenced by each other and higher status

1049
00:57:49,280 --> 00:57:55,559
members that they're all right, So now this strategy says, okay,

1050
00:57:55,639 --> 00:57:58,519
the way to domesticate those humans, you need to show

1051
00:57:58,639 --> 00:58:02,360
up and be visible. You need to be impressive, more

1052
00:58:02,400 --> 00:58:05,800
impressive than the rest of them. You need to be

1053
00:58:05,920 --> 00:58:09,199
not too hostile, so you know, you should be peaceful.

1054
00:58:09,480 --> 00:58:11,159
You need to be there so they couldn't just do

1055
00:58:11,239 --> 00:58:13,639
something visible from a thousand light years away, right, that

1056
00:58:13,679 --> 00:58:16,639
doesn't work. You need to be there local, you need

1057
00:58:16,679 --> 00:58:20,199
to be impressive, you need to not be too hostile,

1058
00:58:20,400 --> 00:58:23,920
and then you need to make your wishes known. And

1059
00:58:24,159 --> 00:58:26,840
the point is we're smart enough through the analysis. I've

1060
00:58:26,880 --> 00:58:29,159
just told you to figure out what they want, so

1061
00:58:29,440 --> 00:58:32,320
they don't need to say anything more. Now you might say,

1062
00:58:32,639 --> 00:58:35,199
this explains why they aren't completely visible, but how does

1063
00:58:35,239 --> 00:58:41,119
it explain why they didn't go completely obvious. Well, when

1064
00:58:41,199 --> 00:58:43,840
humans have tried to domesticate other humans, it turns out

1065
00:58:43,920 --> 00:58:47,679
that's often failed when the humans were too different. Humans

1066
00:58:47,679 --> 00:58:50,000
aren't that different from each other, but even small cultural

1067
00:58:50,000 --> 00:58:54,199
differences among humans have often made some humans just hate

1068
00:58:54,239 --> 00:58:57,719
the idea of being domesticated by those other humans and

1069
00:58:57,880 --> 00:59:00,280
the whole thing doesn't work and they resist them astation,

1070
00:59:01,320 --> 00:59:03,679
and you know, that makes it a lot harder if

1071
00:59:03,679 --> 00:59:07,719
they resist. So for humans domesticate other humans, we've needed

1072
00:59:07,760 --> 00:59:11,199
to typically be culturally similar enough or opaque enough that

1073
00:59:11,280 --> 00:59:15,679
people don't get really mad about the other culture. So

1074
00:59:15,719 --> 00:59:18,880
in the past, for example, you know, invading armies would

1075
00:59:18,920 --> 00:59:22,199
often just knock out the elites of an existing civilization

1076
00:59:22,280 --> 00:59:26,159
and take over and be the new elites, but then

1077
00:59:26,239 --> 00:59:28,679
not be very visible, not show very much about themselves

1078
00:59:29,280 --> 00:59:32,400
in order to make the local people not hate them

1079
00:59:32,440 --> 00:59:36,719
and accept their new rule. That's often happened in human history.

1080
00:59:38,159 --> 00:59:40,960
So the point is, but these are actually aliens, so

1081
00:59:41,000 --> 00:59:43,440
there's plausibly something about them we would hate if we

1082
00:59:43,480 --> 00:59:47,119
actually knew. Maybe they eat babies, who knows. It doesn't

1083
00:59:47,119 --> 00:59:50,280
bother them, and they don't get why we're bothered. But look,

1084
00:59:50,360 --> 00:59:53,000
because they're aliens, they're most likely actually quite a bit

1085
00:59:53,039 --> 00:59:57,000
more different from us than most other humans happen. So

1086
00:59:57,119 --> 00:59:59,800
the whole idea of them showing up and revealing a

1087
00:59:59,800 --> 01:00:02,800
lot about themselves risks. We don't hate some random detail

1088
01:00:02,840 --> 01:00:06,599
that we learn about them. So their strategy is, now,

1089
01:00:06,840 --> 01:00:11,239
let's let's not reveal very much. Just show up, be impressive,

1090
01:00:11,440 --> 01:00:16,000
be peaceful enough, be local, make your message clear. That'll

1091
01:00:16,000 --> 01:00:20,559
be enough. So that's the hypothesis. That's what they're doing,

1092
01:00:21,639 --> 01:00:24,280
and that's what I roughly assign on one on one

1093
01:00:24,320 --> 01:00:26,920
thousand and one and ten thousand prior to and you

1094
01:00:26,920 --> 01:00:28,840
can see I had to make some assumptions. But they're

1095
01:00:28,880 --> 01:00:33,199
not crazy unlikely assumptions, but you know, they still aren't

1096
01:00:33,239 --> 01:00:38,159
obvious things that would happen, but they're plausible things to happen,

1097
01:00:38,159 --> 01:00:41,199
but it's still not things you would necessarily predict. If

1098
01:00:41,199 --> 01:00:46,000
that's what you were, just making a prediction without any data.

1099
01:00:46,519 --> 01:00:47,079
So what.

1100
01:00:49,239 --> 01:00:51,599
Speaker 1: You say that they're the kind of giving a message,

1101
01:00:51,639 --> 01:00:54,760
or you would say that we were should be taking

1102
01:00:54,800 --> 01:01:00,320
this message and it's a message like we're here, but

1103
01:01:00,360 --> 01:01:02,639
you're not going to know anymore, or or you know,

1104
01:01:02,719 --> 01:01:04,519
I mean, what what do you think them as?

1105
01:01:04,519 --> 01:01:08,440
Speaker 2: The messages look so many you probably know better than me.

1106
01:01:08,840 --> 01:01:12,360
Many people who believe in UFOs are aliens. They believe

1107
01:01:12,360 --> 01:01:16,239
the UFO aliens are peaceful and generous, hearted and wise,

1108
01:01:16,840 --> 01:01:20,360
and they actually want to follow their advice over the

1109
01:01:20,400 --> 01:01:23,199
advice of their local authorities. Many people in the UFO

1110
01:01:23,239 --> 01:01:27,760
space trust the aliens more than they trust Earth authorities.

1111
01:01:27,880 --> 01:01:30,199
Speaker 1: I have to say you're right about that, just from

1112
01:01:30,360 --> 01:01:33,360
you know, comments they usually get. People will say, well,

1113
01:01:33,400 --> 01:01:35,840
they'll save us from like a nuclear war, right, you know,

1114
01:01:35,920 --> 01:01:38,400
they think they're going to come in and save us.

1115
01:01:38,760 --> 01:01:42,360
Speaker 2: I'm telling you this is just the natural reaction of domestication.

1116
01:01:44,519 --> 01:01:46,519
The dog and the horse says, you know, that animal

1117
01:01:46,559 --> 01:01:48,360
doesn't look so much like a dog. But damn it,

1118
01:01:48,400 --> 01:01:51,239
if they aren't really impressive, they're in my social world.

1119
01:01:51,239 --> 01:01:54,480
They they they dominate me, and they see as things

1120
01:01:54,519 --> 01:01:56,119
seem to go well when I go along with what

1121
01:01:56,159 --> 01:01:58,000
they say. So you know, let's just do it.

1122
01:01:58,599 --> 01:01:59,000
Speaker 1: Mmmm.

1123
01:01:59,239 --> 01:02:02,360
Speaker 2: That's how animals get domesticated. That's how humans. They get

1124
01:02:02,360 --> 01:02:05,880
domesticated by other humans. So this is just a very

1125
01:02:05,960 --> 01:02:10,679
natural reaction really to seeing that the aliens are here.

1126
01:02:11,280 --> 01:02:14,360
They're not too hostible, and they're vastly more capable than

1127
01:02:14,400 --> 01:02:17,159
the other authorities these around them. Like if you've got

1128
01:02:17,199 --> 01:02:20,039
to believe that these UFOs are just vastly more capable

1129
01:02:20,039 --> 01:02:22,400
than your local authorities, if they're here at all, they

1130
01:02:22,440 --> 01:02:23,599
are just really capable.

1131
01:02:24,320 --> 01:02:27,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, there's there's I'm sure you've probably heard

1132
01:02:27,320 --> 01:02:29,239
this that there's a lot of people that have talked

1133
01:02:29,280 --> 01:02:33,159
about usos which are underwater, you know, coming out of

1134
01:02:33,159 --> 01:02:35,920
the water, and you know, even more impressive, they're so vast,

1135
01:02:36,000 --> 01:02:39,400
the ocean is so vast, you know, and unexplored that

1136
01:02:39,440 --> 01:02:42,599
there is possible, you know, there is many possible places

1137
01:02:42,599 --> 01:02:46,239
they could be hiding if that is the case. But

1138
01:02:46,440 --> 01:02:50,320
if they're hanging out like just beyond visibility.

1139
01:02:51,920 --> 01:02:54,320
Speaker 2: Well, they're just within the visibility. If there were just

1140
01:02:54,320 --> 01:02:56,840
beyond the ability, we wouldn't see them, right, They're hanging

1141
01:02:56,880 --> 01:03:00,559
out just within the range of visibility to just barely

1142
01:03:00,639 --> 01:03:01,199
be visible.

1143
01:03:02,159 --> 01:03:06,079
Speaker 1: And let's just say scenarios here. You think it would

1144
01:03:06,119 --> 01:03:10,440
be like representing like you say, one of the sister

1145
01:03:10,519 --> 01:03:14,840
cultures or whatever, like there'll be representatives, you know, And

1146
01:03:17,039 --> 01:03:19,599
you know, I after doing the show for this long,

1147
01:03:19,639 --> 01:03:22,920
I still don't know really, you know. When I'm asking

1148
01:03:23,000 --> 01:03:25,039
people ask me, well, what are they, I say, I

1149
01:03:25,039 --> 01:03:27,280
don't know. I really don't know, and I don't know

1150
01:03:27,320 --> 01:03:30,159
if they're alien or not or you know. And there's

1151
01:03:30,199 --> 01:03:33,280
a doctor Avi Lobe. You probably heard of him, yes,

1152
01:03:33,280 --> 01:03:36,440
and he he claims, you know, there's a possibility that

1153
01:03:36,519 --> 01:03:41,719
they're like a higher like an artificial intelligence like drone

1154
01:03:41,840 --> 01:03:43,000
almost or something like that.

1155
01:03:43,079 --> 01:03:45,000
Speaker 2: I would say, almost surely they're artificial. But I just

1156
01:03:45,000 --> 01:03:49,199
said almost surely any advanced civilization of unofficial that's nothing

1157
01:03:49,239 --> 01:03:51,639
special about them. We're going to be artificial in a

1158
01:03:51,639 --> 01:03:53,079
few thousand years.

1159
01:03:54,199 --> 01:03:56,440
Speaker 1: Probably. There was a couple of comments in the chat

1160
01:03:56,480 --> 01:03:58,360
that was pretty funny. When you were talking about that

1161
01:03:58,719 --> 01:04:01,320
you know, we don't want to be just lost squishy

1162
01:04:01,360 --> 01:04:06,800
things in a museum, really, but right, but it's pretty funny.

1163
01:04:07,000 --> 01:04:11,840
But anyway, Yeah, this is just totally fascinating. And so

1164
01:04:11,920 --> 01:04:14,440
if they were like hanging out, you know, people speculate.

1165
01:04:14,559 --> 01:04:17,360
You hear people say things, well, there's bases on the

1166
01:04:17,960 --> 01:04:20,400
other side of the moon, there's this and that, and

1167
01:04:20,719 --> 01:04:22,920
you know. But one of the questions I'd like to

1168
01:04:22,960 --> 01:04:27,880
ask someone like you is, well, you kind of explained it,

1169
01:04:27,960 --> 01:04:32,039
so maybe it's maybe you know, uh, move point, but

1170
01:04:32,920 --> 01:04:36,400
why would we be so if life is so common

1171
01:04:36,440 --> 01:04:39,280
out there, why would be we be so special that

1172
01:04:39,320 --> 01:04:42,280
we'd be visited? But you're kind of explaining that in

1173
01:04:42,360 --> 01:04:46,760
these theories that we're just being watched so we don't expand.

1174
01:04:46,960 --> 01:04:50,679
Speaker 2: We're capable of messing up this galaxy and universe they're in.

1175
01:04:50,880 --> 01:04:54,159
They want it to stay natural and empty, and we

1176
01:04:54,199 --> 01:04:55,960
would mess that up naturally.

1177
01:04:56,440 --> 01:04:58,000
Speaker 1: So I think we're doing a pretty good job at

1178
01:04:58,000 --> 01:04:59,159
this planet, you know.

1179
01:04:59,280 --> 01:05:02,519
Speaker 2: I mean, we're a whole long way to fill this planet,

1180
01:05:02,519 --> 01:05:05,119
but we are aggressively expanding for sure.

1181
01:05:05,719 --> 01:05:09,000
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, wow, that's really something.

1182
01:05:09,239 --> 01:05:13,800
Speaker 2: And you know that there's a bit of a taboo

1183
01:05:13,840 --> 01:05:16,639
within the UFO world of doing what I'm doing. So

1184
01:05:17,360 --> 01:05:20,400
I mean, so there are people who want the UFO

1185
01:05:20,480 --> 01:05:24,960
world to be respected, and they think discussion of scenarios

1186
01:05:25,039 --> 01:05:28,480
brings disrespect. We sound like we're saying crazy things. So

1187
01:05:28,920 --> 01:05:31,199
many of them say, look, we should just say there's

1188
01:05:31,239 --> 01:05:33,199
the data here. And the thing we're all going to

1189
01:05:33,199 --> 01:05:34,920
say is, look, the data is real. You need to

1190
01:05:34,920 --> 01:05:37,480
think about it, but not actually think about it. They

1191
01:05:37,480 --> 01:05:41,239
don't want us to be actually generating scenarios and comparing

1192
01:05:41,280 --> 01:05:43,639
to them the data because that sounds crazy. They want

1193
01:05:43,719 --> 01:05:46,360
us to just focus on saying the data is real.

1194
01:05:46,840 --> 01:05:49,280
You know, the data needs to be taken seriously, and

1195
01:05:49,320 --> 01:05:51,760
that's how they think the whole field can be taken

1196
01:05:51,800 --> 01:05:55,559
more seriously is by tabooing discussion of possible theories to

1197
01:05:55,599 --> 01:05:59,119
explain the data and merely insisting on the solidity of

1198
01:05:59,119 --> 01:06:00,119
the data.

1199
01:06:00,199 --> 01:06:03,639
Speaker 1: Wow. Well, I'm enjoying this a lot. I think it's

1200
01:06:03,719 --> 01:06:07,760
really fascinating. And you know, there is I've talked about

1201
01:06:07,800 --> 01:06:10,159
this many times. There is kind of a division anyway

1202
01:06:10,199 --> 01:06:13,960
in the UFO community. But it's usually like, you know,

1203
01:06:14,320 --> 01:06:17,119
there's one person they think is good, one person they

1204
01:06:17,119 --> 01:06:19,239
think is bad, and you know, it's just like our

1205
01:06:19,239 --> 01:06:22,079
whole society, you know, the division and all that.

1206
01:06:22,119 --> 01:06:23,639
Speaker 2: I mean, as far as I know, I don't know

1207
01:06:23,679 --> 01:06:25,480
what these sides are, so I haven't taken a side.

1208
01:06:25,480 --> 01:06:27,679
Maybe maybe I've been turning to the side. You I

1209
01:06:27,719 --> 01:06:29,480
don't know enough about this world to know what the

1210
01:06:29,519 --> 01:06:32,119
sides are which side I be taken on? But I

1211
01:06:32,159 --> 01:06:34,199
do know there is this one division I saw between

1212
01:06:34,239 --> 01:06:36,440
some people who say, look, we need to just shut

1213
01:06:36,519 --> 01:06:39,079
up about the theorizing and just focus on the data

1214
01:06:39,360 --> 01:06:41,800
and so in order to be respected by the usual authorities.

1215
01:06:42,559 --> 01:06:45,119
Speaker 1: Well, I think you know what I mean, Like anything

1216
01:06:45,159 --> 01:06:48,199
you want to know. That's part of the question is

1217
01:06:48,679 --> 01:06:50,239
you know, what what are they doing here?

1218
01:06:50,320 --> 01:06:50,480
Speaker 3: You know?

1219
01:06:50,480 --> 01:06:52,480
Speaker 1: I mean that's one of the three questions. What do

1220
01:06:52,519 --> 01:06:54,559
they want? What are they doing here? And you know

1221
01:06:54,639 --> 01:06:55,679
what are they the three?

1222
01:06:56,239 --> 01:06:56,400
Speaker 2: Right?

1223
01:06:56,440 --> 01:06:56,639
Speaker 1: You know?

1224
01:06:56,719 --> 01:07:00,719
Speaker 2: So my theory here is not very encouraging answers. I mean,

1225
01:07:00,840 --> 01:07:04,320
they might be accurate answers, but they are not inspiring.

1226
01:07:05,840 --> 01:07:09,920
So look like, according to my story here, the aliens

1227
01:07:10,719 --> 01:07:14,000
could easily intervene and solve many of our problems, but

1228
01:07:14,440 --> 01:07:16,840
they do not want to. Yeah, and they are not

1229
01:07:16,880 --> 01:07:19,760
inclined to, and they're not going to so my story says, Look,

1230
01:07:19,800 --> 01:07:21,840
they're never going to show up and say here's the

1231
01:07:21,880 --> 01:07:24,320
cure to cancer and here's how to time travel or whatever.

1232
01:07:24,320 --> 01:07:27,800
They're just never going to do that because you know,

1233
01:07:27,840 --> 01:07:33,119
they want until they are clearly domesticated, that's their priority,

1234
01:07:33,159 --> 01:07:35,360
and until that's clear that they succeeded at that, they're

1235
01:07:35,360 --> 01:07:38,039
just not going to risk that by doing other stuff

1236
01:07:38,079 --> 01:07:38,519
for us.

1237
01:07:38,920 --> 01:07:40,719
Speaker 1: You know, there's this case. I don't know if you

1238
01:07:41,199 --> 01:07:43,559
how much you've looked into anything, but there's this case

1239
01:07:44,000 --> 01:07:47,679
called the Ariel school incident that happened in the nineteen nineties.

1240
01:07:47,920 --> 01:07:51,960
Were all these school children APPETI yes, yes, right, but

1241
01:07:52,079 --> 01:07:55,360
they some of them had visions during this encounter, and

1242
01:07:55,400 --> 01:07:59,199
the visions were like the Earth is being destroyed. But

1243
01:07:59,239 --> 01:08:02,199
the one thing I'm just going to follow up with

1244
01:08:02,320 --> 01:08:06,199
saying is they never talk. There was never anything about fixing.

1245
01:08:06,400 --> 01:08:09,519
It's just this is happening, nothing about fixing.

1246
01:08:09,920 --> 01:08:12,519
Speaker 2: You know, so many of those children, if I recall

1247
01:08:12,639 --> 01:08:15,639
and other people, basically had this feeling that the aliens

1248
01:08:15,679 --> 01:08:18,399
were the good guys coming here to protect nature against

1249
01:08:18,439 --> 01:08:21,119
the bad humans, and that the children should side with

1250
01:08:21,159 --> 01:08:23,720
the aliens over their local human authorities. That was a

1251
01:08:24,279 --> 01:08:25,560
sense that the children had.

1252
01:08:27,359 --> 01:08:29,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean yeah, a lot of them went home

1253
01:08:29,880 --> 01:08:32,199
and told their parents and their you know, of course,

1254
01:08:32,239 --> 01:08:35,119
their parents were thinking it was the devil or something

1255
01:08:35,199 --> 01:08:38,439
like that, you know, some of them. But yeah, but

1256
01:08:38,720 --> 01:08:41,399
I did speak to someone that their parents were very supportive,

1257
01:08:41,439 --> 01:08:42,479
and you.

1258
01:08:42,359 --> 01:08:46,199
Speaker 2: Know, nevertheless, the message was trust the aliens over your

1259
01:08:46,239 --> 01:08:47,319
local human authorities.

1260
01:08:50,399 --> 01:08:55,319
Speaker 1: Many people have claimed that they have seen like visions

1261
01:08:55,359 --> 01:08:58,000
of the destruction of the earth, you know, when they're

1262
01:08:58,000 --> 01:09:01,199
having these encounters, which is pretty scary, you know, and

1263
01:09:01,640 --> 01:09:05,439
it's kind of like, Okay, you know, wake up everyone,

1264
01:09:05,720 --> 01:09:09,119
you know, that's that's kind of the message. But they're possibly.

1265
01:09:08,680 --> 01:09:12,319
Speaker 2: Getting well again. As I say, my my theorist, so

1266
01:09:12,359 --> 01:09:14,560
I've learned a lot over the years about all of

1267
01:09:14,560 --> 01:09:17,119
our best theories of everything, and I've got to say,

1268
01:09:17,159 --> 01:09:20,159
the idea that some UFOs are aliens is just, on

1269
01:09:20,199 --> 01:09:23,760
the face of it's terribly scary. Like that just upsets

1270
01:09:24,039 --> 01:09:27,439
so much of our usual assumptions about the history and

1271
01:09:27,479 --> 01:09:30,279
the nature of things and the explanation for events. I

1272
01:09:30,319 --> 01:09:33,600
don't need somebody's vision to be scary. Somebody had a

1273
01:09:33,640 --> 01:09:35,680
strange brain. That's not going to scare me much more.

1274
01:09:35,720 --> 01:09:38,239
Than the basic fact. Look, this is a scary fact.

1275
01:09:38,479 --> 01:09:42,520
If some UFOs aliens, we are in a very different

1276
01:09:42,560 --> 01:09:45,159
scenario and much more at risk than we might have thought.

1277
01:09:45,239 --> 01:09:47,159
This is a very risky scenario.

1278
01:09:48,159 --> 01:09:50,159
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, you know, it's going all the way back

1279
01:09:50,199 --> 01:09:54,199
to I think, you know, the nineteen nineteen forty seven

1280
01:09:54,840 --> 01:09:59,000
basically when there was a memo that the government put out,

1281
01:09:59,520 --> 01:10:01,640
the twenty memo. I'm not sure that's what I just

1282
01:10:01,640 --> 01:10:05,920
pulled up, but that they think the likely scenario is

1283
01:10:05,960 --> 01:10:08,680
that it is extraterrestrial, or at least some of them are.

1284
01:10:09,319 --> 01:10:11,119
And you know, a lot of them can be explained,

1285
01:10:11,479 --> 01:10:13,840
you know, but there is, like you mentioned, there's some

1286
01:10:13,920 --> 01:10:17,479
really unique ones that you know, you're not going to

1287
01:10:17,520 --> 01:10:20,960
have fighter pilots, you know, making all these stories up.

1288
01:10:20,960 --> 01:10:23,239
When it comes to like the tic TAC that.

1289
01:10:23,439 --> 01:10:24,960
Speaker 2: We might want, you want to walk through the hook

1290
01:10:25,039 --> 01:10:29,960
scenario because that is an alternative explanation too. I mean,

1291
01:10:30,560 --> 01:10:32,920
I don't think you can fairly draw a conclusion about

1292
01:10:32,920 --> 01:10:35,239
one scenari unless you've compared it to the others. Really,

1293
01:10:35,399 --> 01:10:37,439
you should like walk down each of the paths of

1294
01:10:37,479 --> 01:10:40,199
each of the scenarios in order to do a full comparison.

1295
01:10:41,199 --> 01:10:45,359
Speaker 1: But if you're talking about the tic tac possibly in.

1296
01:10:45,279 --> 01:10:48,039
Speaker 2: Particular, just the whole category of explanation, right, all right, yeah,

1297
01:10:48,560 --> 01:10:49,560
categories of explanation.

1298
01:10:49,720 --> 01:10:52,239
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, we'll go there in just a second. Here's

1299
01:10:52,239 --> 01:10:54,960
another question though, by this same gentleman. Can you make

1300
01:10:55,000 --> 01:11:00,199
any distinction between domesticated as in tame versus domesticated and

1301
01:11:00,319 --> 01:11:03,960
service livestock animals? Do you understand the question?

1302
01:11:04,439 --> 01:11:08,279
Speaker 2: Yes, So the question is do they have some plan

1303
01:11:08,560 --> 01:11:13,920
to use us in some domesticated animal way? And it

1304
01:11:13,960 --> 01:11:20,199
seems obvious that no, like whatever we could become for them,

1305
01:11:20,239 --> 01:11:22,880
they could have just made for themselves out of the

1306
01:11:22,920 --> 01:11:26,640
raw material of the universe. That we're not especially useful

1307
01:11:26,720 --> 01:11:31,960
for doing anything. I think, any particular physical task or

1308
01:11:32,039 --> 01:11:34,960
mental tasks they needed doing, they could have just made

1309
01:11:34,960 --> 01:11:37,039
a machine to do that far better than we could.

1310
01:11:37,920 --> 01:11:40,279
So it's not like we're going to be some especially

1311
01:11:40,359 --> 01:11:43,279
useful input into their economy. Remember, they chose not to

1312
01:11:43,319 --> 01:11:45,920
expand into the galaxy. They've limited their economy to their

1313
01:11:45,920 --> 01:11:49,199
home world. They're not here to, you know, grab some

1314
01:11:49,319 --> 01:11:52,279
raw materials and take them home. They're not here to

1315
01:11:52,359 --> 01:11:55,880
like peruse our patent database and find some discoveries. They

1316
01:11:55,880 --> 01:12:02,279
haven't found. No, we're not useful. But apparently they didn't

1317
01:12:02,279 --> 01:12:04,319
want to destroy us, which would have been the simplest

1318
01:12:04,319 --> 01:12:07,600
way to solve our problem that we present of threatening

1319
01:12:07,640 --> 01:12:10,840
the rules. So they must have some degree of affiliation

1320
01:12:10,960 --> 01:12:13,800
with us, some desire not to kill us and destroy us,

1321
01:12:13,800 --> 01:12:15,920
But they don't have enough empathy that they want to

1322
01:12:16,000 --> 01:12:20,520
cure cancer, give us world peace or anything like that. Yeah,

1323
01:12:20,600 --> 01:12:23,520
they're going to let us suffer and without helping in

1324
01:12:23,560 --> 01:12:27,039
any way, as their priority is to domesticate us over

1325
01:12:27,039 --> 01:12:30,760
the long run, which basically means yes, team following their direction,

1326
01:12:31,239 --> 01:12:32,079
doing what they say.

1327
01:12:32,960 --> 01:12:35,319
Speaker 1: Well in a way, you know, I mean, it's like

1328
01:12:35,479 --> 01:12:40,039
we would not interfere in nature, like a preserve or something,

1329
01:12:40,079 --> 01:12:41,039
you know, I mean, it's kind of right.

1330
01:12:41,119 --> 01:12:43,399
Speaker 2: So some of us have that attitude toward nature around us.

1331
01:12:43,399 --> 01:12:46,359
And in fact, I think many people in the world

1332
01:12:47,000 --> 01:12:49,520
don't like this image of our descendants going out and

1333
01:12:49,560 --> 01:12:52,960
remaking the galaxy, and that bothers them. And that's the

1334
01:12:53,039 --> 01:12:55,840
kind of attitudes that might have caused aliens to not

1335
01:12:55,920 --> 01:12:58,279
do that. There are other reasons as well, we could

1336
01:12:58,319 --> 01:13:00,159
go into if you'd like, about why you might not

1337
01:13:00,279 --> 01:13:02,720
want to allow your civilization to expand in the universe.

1338
01:13:03,520 --> 01:13:04,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, why would that be?

1339
01:13:06,319 --> 01:13:11,960
Speaker 2: Well, in the last century, the world has created a

1340
01:13:12,119 --> 01:13:15,239
world culture. So a century ago there were all these

1341
01:13:15,239 --> 01:13:18,159
different national cultures that fought each other and we're vying

1342
01:13:18,199 --> 01:13:21,079
for control. But since then we've created more of a

1343
01:13:21,119 --> 01:13:24,119
world culture, especially among elites, and we used that world

1344
01:13:24,159 --> 01:13:26,840
culture to be much more peaceful and cooperative with each

1345
01:13:26,840 --> 01:13:30,760
other around the world. And we like that, and we

1346
01:13:30,880 --> 01:13:35,239
liked the idea that we could control our evolution, our change,

1347
01:13:35,439 --> 01:13:38,039
and if weird or bad stuff was happened, we could

1348
01:13:38,079 --> 01:13:41,840
just pass laws to stop that. We like this idea

1349
01:13:41,880 --> 01:13:44,840
at the moment that humanity as a whole is taking

1350
01:13:44,920 --> 01:13:51,039
control of Earth and humanity together to manage its evolution

1351
01:13:51,279 --> 01:13:54,720
and manage our planet together and our history together. People

1352
01:13:54,800 --> 01:13:58,159
like this idea, and that's a big change from say,

1353
01:13:58,199 --> 01:14:00,560
a century ago, and certainly from a thous years ago,

1354
01:14:01,239 --> 01:14:03,520
or basically had a world full of competing things, and

1355
01:14:03,560 --> 01:14:07,039
nobody really saw the whole Earth as a system was

1356
01:14:07,079 --> 01:14:10,399
trying to deal with it altogether. Nobody tried to manage

1357
01:14:10,439 --> 01:14:14,359
the future of our species together. But today people think

1358
01:14:14,399 --> 01:14:17,960
in those terms that we can think about what we

1359
01:14:18,119 --> 01:14:21,039
as a species, as a planet, what problems, we face

1360
01:14:21,079 --> 01:14:24,720
what we want to do about them and together decide.

1361
01:14:24,760 --> 01:14:28,239
So for example, capitalism i'man economists, has lots of competitive

1362
01:14:28,239 --> 01:14:30,720
process that produces outcomes that people don't like, and then

1363
01:14:30,760 --> 01:14:32,960
they like to regulate and make those things not happen.

1364
01:14:33,479 --> 01:14:40,520
So unfettered, unleashed competitive capitalism scares people, and they liked

1365
01:14:40,560 --> 01:14:43,199
the idea of having governments and even world governments that

1366
01:14:43,279 --> 01:14:46,960
can limit that. So, for example, on unfettered competition and

1367
01:14:47,079 --> 01:14:49,680
nuclear weapons, for example, bothers people, and I like the

1368
01:14:49,680 --> 01:14:52,800
idea of having central powers to prevent that. Or you know,

1369
01:14:52,960 --> 01:14:56,479
unlimited genetic engineering of diseases or whatever bothers people. So

1370
01:14:56,560 --> 01:15:01,319
there's a lot of ways in which competitive capitalism could

1371
01:15:01,439 --> 01:15:04,319
lead to outcomes that people would rather prevent by having

1372
01:15:04,399 --> 01:15:08,119
shared regulation of the world. And we do, in fact

1373
01:15:08,279 --> 01:15:10,199
have regulation around the world. We don't have a world

1374
01:15:10,239 --> 01:15:12,560
government we have because we have a world culture. We

1375
01:15:12,640 --> 01:15:16,279
just have a lot of correlation and regulation everywhere such

1376
01:15:16,319 --> 01:15:20,079
that we actually deal with say banking and nuclear energy,

1377
01:15:20,199 --> 01:15:24,079
and medical experiments and airline accidents and all sorts of

1378
01:15:24,079 --> 01:15:26,159
things pretty much the same all the way around the world.

1379
01:15:26,720 --> 01:15:32,159
And we like that fact now the day any colonist

1380
01:15:32,359 --> 01:15:34,520
leaves the Solar system to go off to another star.

1381
01:15:36,279 --> 01:15:40,279
That era ends that colonists who goes off to another

1382
01:15:40,319 --> 01:15:44,000
star can evolve out of control, and they can have

1383
01:15:44,039 --> 01:15:48,079
descendants that evolve further out of control, and we can't

1384
01:15:48,119 --> 01:15:51,920
regulate what they become and what they will do. And

1385
01:15:51,960 --> 01:15:55,119
then they could spread to one thousand star systems and

1386
01:15:55,199 --> 01:15:59,079
then come back and buy for control for here, and

1387
01:15:59,119 --> 01:16:02,159
we couldn't stop them. As soon as you'll let any

1388
01:16:02,199 --> 01:16:05,560
colonists leave into the universe, the error of humanity together

1389
01:16:05,640 --> 01:16:08,800
discussing what it wants to do and controlling it ends,

1390
01:16:09,359 --> 01:16:15,159
and we enter an error of unlimited competition, where any

1391
01:16:15,239 --> 01:16:17,439
part of our descendants who go in any potential direction

1392
01:16:17,600 --> 01:16:20,840
can choose to become weird and strange in ways we

1393
01:16:20,880 --> 01:16:23,479
don't like, and if that makes them powerful, they can

1394
01:16:23,520 --> 01:16:27,000
come back and impose their changes on the rest of us.

1395
01:16:29,119 --> 01:16:32,479
That could scare you, that could make you think, no,

1396
01:16:32,760 --> 01:16:35,800
we don't want that to happen. We want to prevent

1397
01:16:35,880 --> 01:16:39,680
anybody from leaving because we want to maintain a civilization

1398
01:16:39,720 --> 01:16:44,520
where we decide things together. So that's the pitch for

1399
01:16:45,479 --> 01:16:48,960
not expanding. M I see, and you can see the

1400
01:16:49,000 --> 01:16:50,079
emotional appeal it.

1401
01:16:50,000 --> 01:16:54,159
Speaker 1: Has Hmmm, all right, so you mentioned just a few

1402
01:16:54,159 --> 01:16:59,319
minutes ago that the hoax's aspect of this, No, I

1403
01:16:59,359 --> 01:17:02,920
would say hope myself. I think, well, what are we

1404
01:17:02,960 --> 01:17:06,680
going to be talking about hoaxes here? Because there's I

1405
01:17:06,720 --> 01:17:10,199
don't know if you'd consider hoaxes like CGI or AI

1406
01:17:10,359 --> 01:17:13,640
created videos and things like that on YouTube, because there's

1407
01:17:13,640 --> 01:17:16,720
a town of them on YouTube, sure, and there's on

1408
01:17:16,760 --> 01:17:20,079
Facebook and all that, but that's mostly what you see

1409
01:17:20,119 --> 01:17:22,960
in hoaxes today when it used to be nuts and

1410
01:17:23,000 --> 01:17:24,119
bolts hoaxes.

1411
01:17:24,640 --> 01:17:29,039
Speaker 2: So UFO reports have go back way far. So if

1412
01:17:29,039 --> 01:17:32,000
we're going to explain very old reports as hoaxes, we

1413
01:17:32,039 --> 01:17:34,560
have to be invoking the technology available at the time

1414
01:17:35,880 --> 01:17:39,520
to create hoaxes, right. So we can't use current technology

1415
01:17:39,560 --> 01:17:42,680
to explain nineteen forty seven hoaxes, right, will have to

1416
01:17:42,680 --> 01:17:44,319
be saying what could they have done at the time

1417
01:17:45,319 --> 01:17:49,600
to produce the impressions dated at the time. Okay, So,

1418
01:17:50,239 --> 01:17:55,159
first of all, governments, including the US government, have in

1419
01:17:55,279 --> 01:17:59,079
fact made hoaxes that were big and lasted a long time.

1420
01:18:01,000 --> 01:18:03,520
So for example, during World War Two, we made up

1421
01:18:03,560 --> 01:18:08,479
whole separate invasions I think through Turkey that didn't exist,

1422
01:18:08,520 --> 01:18:11,880
where we tried to fool the Nazis that that was

1423
01:18:11,920 --> 01:18:14,239
going to happen, so that they would divert resources to

1424
01:18:14,319 --> 01:18:18,600
other places. Even for D Day, we had whole inflatable

1425
01:18:18,640 --> 01:18:21,359
tanks and inflatable planes in certain places in England that

1426
01:18:21,399 --> 01:18:23,319
they might see and think the invasion was going to

1427
01:18:23,319 --> 01:18:27,399
come from there. So during wartime we've done some pretty

1428
01:18:27,399 --> 01:18:33,319
big fake stuff. And for example, the US made up

1429
01:18:33,479 --> 01:18:36,520
something for the excuse of the Vietnam War that was

1430
01:18:36,560 --> 01:18:38,600
just a lie, and we didn't admit that. For a

1431
01:18:38,600 --> 01:18:42,760
great many decades we pretended the lie was true. So

1432
01:18:43,119 --> 01:18:46,359
there have been big hoaxes that have lasted for many decades.

1433
01:18:48,000 --> 01:18:53,239
So the capability is there sometimes and the inclination is

1434
01:18:53,239 --> 01:18:57,079
there sometimes for some big hoaxes, especially related to war

1435
01:18:57,600 --> 01:18:58,960
and buy large governments.

1436
01:19:00,359 --> 01:19:00,680
Speaker 1: MM.

1437
01:19:01,399 --> 01:19:04,000
Speaker 2: Next, notice that a lot of our best data is

1438
01:19:04,039 --> 01:19:07,720
from governments. Their most a lot of the most persuasive

1439
01:19:07,800 --> 01:19:14,920
you fur reports are from government officials, you know, pilots, sailors,

1440
01:19:14,960 --> 01:19:18,560
et cetera. Not just to view US, but from other governments.

1441
01:19:18,600 --> 01:19:21,680
And you know, if it's a government causing the hoax,

1442
01:19:21,680 --> 01:19:24,359
why they can of course get their employees to lie

1443
01:19:24,439 --> 01:19:25,319
to us.

1444
01:19:26,119 --> 01:19:29,760
Speaker 1: So but why would they? I mean, I can see

1445
01:19:29,880 --> 01:19:31,960
in a more time. Okay, go ahead, sorry, Okay.

1446
01:19:32,159 --> 01:19:35,640
Speaker 2: So, like I said before, what we need is a

1447
01:19:35,760 --> 01:19:38,199
scenario that makes sense of it, right, just like with

1448
01:19:38,239 --> 01:19:40,640
the aliens, we need a star. Why would anybody do

1449
01:19:40,680 --> 01:19:44,319
the hopes? So, as you probably know, the biggest war

1450
01:19:44,560 --> 01:19:47,560
issue in the last seventy years was the possibility of

1451
01:19:47,640 --> 01:19:51,760
nuclear war and the possibility of a first strike whereby

1452
01:19:51,880 --> 01:19:54,600
one would just out of the blue, without warnings, send

1453
01:19:54,600 --> 01:19:56,720
missiles off to the other side, try to destroy their

1454
01:19:56,720 --> 01:20:02,720
missiles so that they couldn't retaliate back. And the ability

1455
01:20:02,760 --> 01:20:05,920
to do that depended on technology that changed over time.

1456
01:20:05,960 --> 01:20:07,880
So the worry was, well, at the moment, we don't

1457
01:20:07,880 --> 01:20:11,439
think they could do a retaliation or you know, at

1458
01:20:11,439 --> 01:20:13,239
the moment of hers strike wouldn't work. They'd see him

1459
01:20:13,279 --> 01:20:15,760
coming and they'd launch theirs. But what if there's a sudden,

1460
01:20:15,920 --> 01:20:18,359
you know, jump in technology that that might allow a

1461
01:20:18,399 --> 01:20:22,199
first strike. That's what people have been worried about a

1462
01:20:22,239 --> 01:20:25,359
lot for a long time, right, So that's why they

1463
01:20:25,359 --> 01:20:27,520
are trying to research into technologies and track the other

1464
01:20:27,520 --> 01:20:30,119
guy's technologies because they want to make sure this mutual

1465
01:20:30,119 --> 01:20:33,039
assured dissection thing can stay as an equilibrium and that

1466
01:20:33,119 --> 01:20:35,359
they won't find a clever way to sneak around it

1467
01:20:35,399 --> 01:20:40,399
and start a war and knock us out. Right, So

1468
01:20:40,680 --> 01:20:44,680
now here's here's an idea. So as you know, like,

1469
01:20:44,720 --> 01:20:47,520
we've spent many, many billions of dollars in the Cold

1470
01:20:47,520 --> 01:20:50,840
War all the time. So if you could somehow switch

1471
01:20:51,439 --> 01:20:54,479
you know, the Cold War equilibrium by spending I don't know,

1472
01:20:54,479 --> 01:20:56,640
a billion or even ten billion dollars, it would be

1473
01:20:56,640 --> 01:20:59,720
money well spent. There is a huge budget for this,

1474
01:21:00,039 --> 01:21:02,279
even in nineteen forty seven, there'd be a huge budget

1475
01:21:02,319 --> 01:21:04,439
for this. Right. They would be willing to spend a

1476
01:21:04,520 --> 01:21:08,239
lot of money if they could somehow switch the Cold

1477
01:21:08,279 --> 01:21:13,079
War equilibrium even a bit to favor the other side

1478
01:21:13,159 --> 01:21:16,319
not doing a first strike against them, right, or even

1479
01:21:16,359 --> 01:21:17,920
them being able to do a first strike against the

1480
01:21:17,920 --> 01:21:20,560
other people. But you know, I guess the nicer thing

1481
01:21:20,560 --> 01:21:22,439
to imagine is they want to prevent the other side

1482
01:21:22,479 --> 01:21:26,640
from a first strip. Okay, So the simple idea is,

1483
01:21:27,399 --> 01:21:30,199
if you can get them to believe there's a chance

1484
01:21:30,239 --> 01:21:33,359
there's a third party around who would take issue with

1485
01:21:33,399 --> 01:21:36,439
their first strike, you might make them hesitate with the

1486
01:21:36,479 --> 01:21:39,840
first strike. You have to convince them that it's not

1487
01:21:39,960 --> 01:21:41,439
just the two of us. There might be a third

1488
01:21:41,479 --> 01:21:46,800
party who is powerful and able to impose its will

1489
01:21:46,960 --> 01:21:51,239
and would take offense at your first strike. If there's

1490
01:21:51,279 --> 01:21:53,800
a chance of that, that'll just make you pause a

1491
01:21:53,840 --> 01:21:56,520
little bit more about this first strike, even when you

1492
01:21:56,720 --> 01:22:00,800
figure out the clever way to do it. So then

1493
01:22:01,199 --> 01:22:06,319
both sides would have an incentive to make the other

1494
01:22:06,359 --> 01:22:09,079
side believe maybe there's a chance that there really is

1495
01:22:09,079 --> 01:22:09,720
the third.

1496
01:22:09,479 --> 01:22:15,319
Speaker 1: Party, the third party being a UFO. Yes, how would

1497
01:22:15,319 --> 01:22:18,039
they know, the UFO would even want to get involved,

1498
01:22:18,239 --> 01:22:19,199
you know what I mean, You don't know.

1499
01:22:19,199 --> 01:22:22,119
Speaker 2: But the point is just just add uncertainty. I see,

1500
01:22:22,319 --> 01:22:27,119
it's a first strike is a big risk, right, you

1501
01:22:27,560 --> 01:22:30,039
think you have a way to knock their stuff out

1502
01:22:30,199 --> 01:22:32,079
and then they weren't me retality. But if you're wrong,

1503
01:22:32,119 --> 01:22:35,560
you're in big shit, in trouble, right, Okay, So you're

1504
01:22:35,600 --> 01:22:37,359
only going to do it if you're pretty sure you

1505
01:22:37,399 --> 01:22:39,359
could get away with it, right, And so you have

1506
01:22:39,399 --> 01:22:41,399
to look at all the different ways it could go wrong,

1507
01:22:42,880 --> 01:22:45,600
And you're only going to approve it if you're you

1508
01:22:45,680 --> 01:22:50,920
think you're pretty solid or you're really desperate. Otherwise you're

1509
01:22:50,920 --> 01:22:52,359
just not going to do this, and that's of course

1510
01:22:52,359 --> 01:22:54,039
what we saw in the last seventy years. Nobody ever

1511
01:22:54,079 --> 01:22:57,399
did it right, because nobody ever felt they were sure

1512
01:22:57,479 --> 01:23:00,600
enough they could get away with it. Yeah, even when

1513
01:23:00,640 --> 01:23:02,800
we were the first people to have the weapon on

1514
01:23:02,800 --> 01:23:05,079
the other side, didn't We weren't sure enough of that

1515
01:23:06,199 --> 01:23:08,399
right to just do a first strike right at the beginning, Right,

1516
01:23:08,560 --> 01:23:10,199
we had the bomb before they did. Why didn't we

1517
01:23:10,279 --> 01:23:12,760
just do a first strike. Well, I didn't have that

1518
01:23:12,800 --> 01:23:15,640
many We aren't very sure, so we didn't do.

1519
01:23:15,640 --> 01:23:22,039
Speaker 1: It, Thank goodness, thank goodness. Yes, yeah, wow, that's that's

1520
01:23:22,159 --> 01:23:24,680
quite a theory, you know.

1521
01:23:25,880 --> 01:23:28,800
Speaker 2: So it makes me not the hoax thing isn't crazy,

1522
01:23:29,159 --> 01:23:32,920
but it is a bigger hoax that lasts longer than

1523
01:23:32,920 --> 01:23:35,479
most of the ones we've seen. So but it's not

1524
01:23:35,800 --> 01:23:37,760
crazy far away from the others. But it is a

1525
01:23:37,760 --> 01:23:38,840
bit of a stretch.

1526
01:23:38,880 --> 01:23:39,640
Speaker 1: Right yeah.

1527
01:23:39,800 --> 01:23:46,159
Speaker 2: Yeah, But here's an interesting corollary. If in fact, UFOs

1528
01:23:46,199 --> 01:23:49,399
as Aliens is just a big psychop, a big hoax

1529
01:23:49,479 --> 01:23:53,000
faked by the government for this purpose, they probably would

1530
01:23:53,000 --> 01:23:59,039
have faked the moon landings too, come on, right, if

1531
01:23:59,039 --> 01:24:00,880
they were willing and able to this, and that would

1532
01:24:00,880 --> 01:24:04,079
achieve a similar purpose to fake the moon landings. Then yeah, I.

1533
01:24:04,159 --> 01:24:05,640
Speaker 1: Certainly would have saved a lot of money.

1534
01:24:06,159 --> 01:24:08,199
Speaker 2: And I don't know if they save money, but they

1535
01:24:08,239 --> 01:24:10,079
might have just made it more sure to happen. Like

1536
01:24:10,520 --> 01:24:13,119
they made real rockets, right, real rockets launched off from

1537
01:24:13,119 --> 01:24:14,920
the ground. But the question is did they do everything

1538
01:24:14,960 --> 01:24:17,479
they claimed they did? But the surprising thing wasn't to

1539
01:24:17,479 --> 01:24:19,520
have rockets lost off the ground, even really big ones.

1540
01:24:19,560 --> 01:24:22,840
The surprising thing was to actually successfully do all the

1541
01:24:22,880 --> 01:24:25,800
things that you said you did. That's the impressive part.

1542
01:24:25,880 --> 01:24:27,800
So maybe they didn't actually do all the things they

1543
01:24:27,800 --> 01:24:30,239
said they did. Yeah, they just did some of them

1544
01:24:30,279 --> 01:24:32,199
like a rocket left, maybe at left, or it's orbit

1545
01:24:32,359 --> 01:24:35,239
came back. You know, maybe some stuff was even dropped down,

1546
01:24:35,319 --> 01:24:37,680
some mirrors were dropped down, whatever. But you know, they

1547
01:24:37,720 --> 01:24:40,239
just didn't do everything they claim because maybe they couldn't.

1548
01:24:40,439 --> 01:24:44,199
Speaker 1: But yeah, well that's funny. Now. I talked to Alan Bean,

1549
01:24:44,239 --> 01:24:46,760
who was the fourth fourth man on the moon, and

1550
01:24:47,279 --> 01:24:49,640
he said I asked him, I said, how do you

1551
01:24:49,640 --> 01:24:52,159
feel about people that say that you never went to

1552
01:24:52,199 --> 01:24:55,560
the moon. He said, well, they're not really hurting anybody,

1553
01:24:55,600 --> 01:24:57,680
and you know that it's not my job to convince

1554
01:24:57,720 --> 01:25:01,760
him and and and I know it was you know,

1555
01:25:01,880 --> 01:25:04,119
I know I did, but you know, but he was

1556
01:25:04,159 --> 01:25:06,439
a very he was a gentleman about it. He he

1557
01:25:06,560 --> 01:25:11,079
was a great guy. And basically, you know, I asked,

1558
01:25:11,760 --> 01:25:14,640
what would it be like standing and looking up at earth?

1559
01:25:15,199 --> 01:25:17,439
You know, I said, if it was me the whole time?

1560
01:25:17,720 --> 01:25:19,399
Am I going to get back? That's all I could

1561
01:25:19,439 --> 01:25:21,640
think about. And he said all he had to do

1562
01:25:21,800 --> 01:25:23,800
is just focus on the task in front of.

1563
01:25:23,840 --> 01:25:27,199
Speaker 2: Him, and that's how being able to do this sort

1564
01:25:27,199 --> 01:25:27,479
of thing.

1565
01:25:27,520 --> 01:25:33,640
Speaker 1: So that's that's right. So as far as the hoax part,

1566
01:25:33,720 --> 01:25:36,439
I understand that that's something I would have never thought

1567
01:25:36,439 --> 01:25:40,039
of in a million years about the government and doing that.

1568
01:25:40,079 --> 01:25:42,520
But you know, there's enough like, for instance, you know,

1569
01:25:42,600 --> 01:25:45,479
I had a sighting that would be I would consider unexplainable,

1570
01:25:45,920 --> 01:25:48,920
and so many people I know have that are outside

1571
01:25:48,920 --> 01:25:51,920
of the military, So you know, I mean, there there's

1572
01:25:52,039 --> 01:25:56,039
a there's always that as well. And but anyway, I

1573
01:25:56,439 --> 01:25:59,479
really appreciate your time and your thoughts, and I just

1574
01:25:59,640 --> 01:26:02,079
I just love hearing you talk about all this. It's

1575
01:26:02,159 --> 01:26:08,920
really really been fantastic. And can someone I'm going to

1576
01:26:09,000 --> 01:26:12,840
have your do you have Let's see, I have links

1577
01:26:12,920 --> 01:26:15,960
I think I have all your links that you.

1578
01:26:15,920 --> 01:26:17,560
Speaker 2: Did say if you want me to pitch my books,

1579
01:26:17,880 --> 01:26:18,319
I've got.

1580
01:26:18,199 --> 01:26:20,399
Speaker 1: Oh, yes, the books of course, Yes.

1581
01:26:20,399 --> 01:26:22,800
Speaker 2: A elephant Age of M and the Elephant in the Brain.

1582
01:26:23,359 --> 01:26:25,840
Speaker 1: Tell me what about a little brief of what each

1583
01:26:25,920 --> 01:26:26,399
book is?

1584
01:26:27,159 --> 01:26:29,199
Speaker 2: Okay? So the Age of M, which is my first

1585
01:26:29,199 --> 01:26:33,319
book singly authored, is the subtitle is Work, Love and

1586
01:26:33,399 --> 01:26:36,840
Life around Robots Rule the Earth. So it's an analysis

1587
01:26:36,880 --> 01:26:39,399
of what would actually happen if a certain kind of

1588
01:26:39,479 --> 01:26:42,600
robot rule the earth. So many people like to make

1589
01:26:42,600 --> 01:26:44,640
the claim that you couldn't really know what would happen,

1590
01:26:44,680 --> 01:26:46,960
it's just too strange predict and I'm trying to convince

1591
01:26:47,000 --> 01:26:50,239
you that no, we can use our basic understanding of

1592
01:26:50,279 --> 01:26:52,680
the world to figure out how it would actually play out.

1593
01:26:52,840 --> 01:26:54,439
And so I try to prove that with a lot

1594
01:26:54,479 --> 01:26:57,560
of details showing you exactly how, at least a certain

1595
01:26:57,640 --> 01:27:00,800
kind of robot that scenario would play out. Wow, and

1596
01:27:00,840 --> 01:27:04,000
it's a scenario that still could happen. We don't know

1597
01:27:04,119 --> 01:27:07,079
exactly which kind of AI will eventually be the first

1598
01:27:07,119 --> 01:27:09,960
one to be human level, but there's a certain kind

1599
01:27:10,039 --> 01:27:12,880
of AI if that one is the first one to

1600
01:27:12,880 --> 01:27:14,840
be here and level then this book's scenario I suppose

1601
01:27:14,880 --> 01:27:17,960
they would play out. My other book is The Elephant

1602
01:27:17,960 --> 01:27:21,359
in the Brain, Hidden Motives in Everyday Life. The basic

1603
01:27:21,399 --> 01:27:24,520
claim here is that you and most people are just

1604
01:27:24,680 --> 01:27:28,479
wrong about your motives more than you think, and in

1605
01:27:28,560 --> 01:27:33,560
big areas of your life like education, medicine, politics, charity,

1606
01:27:34,159 --> 01:27:36,680
there's a standard story you give about why you do

1607
01:27:36,760 --> 01:27:40,319
things in those areas, and that story is wrong. Yeah

1608
01:27:41,199 --> 01:27:43,239
that is, there's another reason that's a bigger one, And

1609
01:27:43,279 --> 01:27:47,159
this helps us rethink a lot of policy area. Well,

1610
01:27:47,399 --> 01:27:49,199
if we're wrong about why we go to the doctor

1611
01:27:49,319 --> 01:27:51,720
or why we go to school, then our policy analysis

1612
01:27:51,800 --> 01:27:53,119
of those things are just going to be wrong, and

1613
01:27:53,159 --> 01:27:56,800
we'll just misunderstand how those things work. So we in

1614
01:27:56,840 --> 01:27:59,600
fact do a lot of things for different reasons than

1615
01:27:59,680 --> 01:28:01,239
we think that's right.

1616
01:28:01,319 --> 01:28:05,079
Speaker 1: And sometimes you have to do a little introspective of why.

1617
01:28:05,680 --> 01:28:07,600
Speaker 2: Introspection doesn't work very well. What you should do is

1618
01:28:07,640 --> 01:28:11,439
look at everybody else and what they're doing, and come

1619
01:28:11,520 --> 01:28:13,520
up with your best explanation for everybody else, and then

1620
01:28:13,600 --> 01:28:16,720
just assume you're like them. I don't assume that you're

1621
01:28:16,760 --> 01:28:18,840
so much better different than everybody else. Just try to

1622
01:28:18,840 --> 01:28:22,000
figure out why everybody else does stuff, and that'll be

1623
01:28:22,000 --> 01:28:22,760
a good guide for you.

1624
01:28:23,520 --> 01:28:26,319
Speaker 1: Yeah. I almost took on something really big one time,

1625
01:28:26,439 --> 01:28:30,039
like buying an auction gallery, you know, basically in California,

1626
01:28:30,640 --> 01:28:33,760
and I really had to think that all the way through.

1627
01:28:33,920 --> 01:28:37,239
What was what was my real motive? You know, And

1628
01:28:36,840 --> 01:28:39,199
I came up with passing on it, you know. I

1629
01:28:39,199 --> 01:28:42,800
mean that. It's just it's you know, big decisions like that,

1630
01:28:43,039 --> 01:28:46,479
you know, that change your whole life. And I'm glad

1631
01:28:46,520 --> 01:28:49,439
I did for you. Yeah, I'm glad I did. But anyway,

1632
01:28:49,479 --> 01:28:51,920
it's been such a pleasure of talking to you. Thank

1633
01:28:51,960 --> 01:28:54,399
you so much, and a lot of really great comments

1634
01:28:54,399 --> 01:28:58,680
in the chat tonight about thinking, you know, complimenting you

1635
01:28:58,760 --> 01:29:01,319
as such a great thinker, and I agree totally.

1636
01:29:02,640 --> 01:29:04,079
Speaker 2: All right, Well, if you want to come on again,

1637
01:29:04,119 --> 01:29:07,159
I've got other revolutionary ideas to run past.

1638
01:29:06,920 --> 01:29:09,479
Speaker 1: You so excellent. All right, Well you take care.

1639
01:29:09,520 --> 01:29:11,479
Speaker 2: That's what I got about yours, But other things I

1640
01:29:11,520 --> 01:29:11,960
can talk.

1641
01:29:11,840 --> 01:29:15,159
Speaker 1: About, right right, Okay, take care, Thank you very much,

1642
01:29:15,319 --> 01:29:17,680
Take care, all right, everyone, So we'll be back next

1643
01:29:17,760 --> 01:29:21,600
week with Danny Shehan and thanks so much, and hang

1644
01:29:21,680 --> 01:29:24,920
in for go over to our another our other stream

1645
01:29:25,000 --> 01:29:29,479
at nine pm tonight with Ron Jenix and Dean Alioto

1646
01:29:29,560 --> 01:29:32,520
and I interviewing him. Thanks so much, and remember to

1647
01:29:32,600 --> 01:29:58,600
keep your eyes to the sky.