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Speaker 2: Hello everyone, welcome to another episode of I Soon. I'm
Speaker 2: Andy Gilber and there's d Concost told you let's save
Speaker 2: you having to introduce yourself. Thank you more importantly than
Speaker 2: either of us. We have a guest today, doctor Joyce Karan,
Speaker 2: who is seen in news editor at Al Monitor, which
Speaker 2: is saying, a major Middle East news agency outlet, and
Speaker 2: she also teaches at George Washington University. Choice is great
Speaker 2: to have you on today, and so topic bajour is
Speaker 2: the Middle East and I think We can all begin
Speaker 2: by saying, this is a very uncertain time, as we
Speaker 2: have every single episode for the last ten months. So
Speaker 2: what are your thoughts? What are prospects of the peace
Speaker 2: in the Middle East. I never thought I'd be actually
Speaker 2: able to ask that question, but there you go.
Speaker 3: Now, Andy, great to be with you. I've been reporting
Speaker 3: on that region for over two decades and I have
Speaker 3: to tell you we've seen nothing like the last ten months.
Speaker 3: The level of fragility instability in the region is different
Speaker 3: this time. The Gaza war, the conflict on both sides
Speaker 3: is real, and UH and Hamas is UH is more charged.
Speaker 3: UH has a global echo to it than other conflicts
Speaker 3: and wars we've covered UH in that region. Unfortunately, I
Speaker 3: wish I had good news for you on where the
Speaker 3: conflict is. It's nowhere good. We were a little bit
Speaker 3: more hopeful about a ceasefire maybe three months ago in June.
Speaker 3: Right now it looks less likely. It seems both sides
Speaker 3: are dug in in UH zero sum game. That Israelly
Speaker 3: Prime Minister is determined on a mission to defeat Hamas.
Speaker 3: It's unclear what that means on the ground, because ten
Speaker 3: months in Hamas is still there they're still calling the
Speaker 3: shots h in Gaza. You've seen what happened with the
Speaker 3: six hostages that were killed by Hamas. We still have
Speaker 3: ninety six ninety seven hostages held in Gaza. But the
Speaker 3: prospects of a ceasefire are dim. US officials are finally
Speaker 3: coming to that conclusion. So it's a matter, you know,
Speaker 3: and this in this time that each side is trying
Speaker 3: to buy between now and the US elections, how each
Speaker 3: party can can can operate and achieve minimum minimal goals until.
Speaker 2: What are the That's a very interesting point. So arguably
Speaker 2: Netna who stands to gain by waiting until the elections,
Speaker 2: hoping at the very least the United States will be
Speaker 2: distracted and at the best that whoever comes in will
Speaker 2: be a little more conciliatory towards what he wants. But
Speaker 2: what you know, we we we know that obviously, I mean,
Speaker 2: we talked about Netna. Who's motivation for that? But what
Speaker 2: are they? What are these sticking points? What are the
Speaker 2: what kind of sense you getting from the dynamics of
Speaker 2: the negotiations from from both sides? What are the sticking
Speaker 2: points and who who is really blocking them?
Speaker 3: Very good question. So over time since these talks have
Speaker 3: been ongoing to try to get to seis fire agreements.
Speaker 3: There has been three major sticking points. One, who controls
Speaker 3: North Gaza can Hamas militants move back to the north.
Speaker 3: That's something that the Israelis have given a hard know
Speaker 3: on that this is this is non negotiable. So that's one.
Speaker 3: The second that's more important now is who controls the
Speaker 3: eight kilometer strip on the border with Egypt. It's known
Speaker 3: as the Philadelphia Corridor the Israeli side, I mean, it
Speaker 3: depends who on the Israeli side, but they're saying, the
Speaker 3: Prime Minister is saying this has to continue to be
Speaker 3: ours because that route, they say, is used to move
Speaker 3: arms and weapons to Hamas. That's a hard no for
Speaker 3: the Egyptian side because according to the Camp David agreement
Speaker 3: in nineteen seventy eight that established peace between Egypt and Israel,
Speaker 3: this route, Israel has to be away from it. So
Speaker 3: that's the second point. The third one, and that's been
Speaker 3: consistent throughout the negotiations, is the swap between which Palestinian
Speaker 3: prisoners get released and which hostages get released. So the
Speaker 3: US had put up a plan, you know, phase one,
Speaker 3: you have this number and Palestinian prisoners that would be
Speaker 3: agreed upon that would be released. What we're hearing from
Speaker 3: the Israeli government now, what we're hearing from Nataiello is
Speaker 3: some of the names on the Palestinian side. He doesn't
Speaker 3: want to budge on them. So these are the three
Speaker 3: main sticking points. Of course, there are other questions who
Speaker 3: control Gaza with the Palestinian authority be able to come
Speaker 3: back in what happens to the Israeli troops in Gaza,
Speaker 3: But these are seen to be in phase two and
Speaker 3: three of any agreement. The three points I talked about,
Speaker 3: these are in phase one and there's no agreement about it.
Speaker 2: Wow. So again it's the it's who among who's released
Speaker 2: in return for the hostages and the Philadelphia corradal itself,
Speaker 2: the two, you know, the two main sticking points and
Speaker 2: I'm sorry the first three.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and the Philadelphia corridor that becomes a bigger issue
Speaker 3: because you have Egypt involved. Is Israel going to risk
Speaker 3: the peace agreement, the first ever peace agreement it had
Speaker 3: with an Arab country to control the Philadelphia Here we're
Speaker 3: seeing divisions among Israeli officials. The Defense Minister Off Galant,
Speaker 3: He's saying, you know, hold on one second, why we
Speaker 3: don't need to control that trout to block Hamas's weaponry.
Speaker 3: We can coordinate with other parties. But you have some
Speaker 3: say that Benjamin Nataiello is actually using the Philadelphia corridor
Speaker 3: to block an agreement.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's quite quite interesting, just for the benefit of
Speaker 2: the So the Philadelphia Kerdle, as Joyce mentioned, is is
Speaker 2: it's really on, you know, almost on their border with Egypt.
Speaker 2: It's the kind of the southern boundary of Gaza. And
Speaker 2: the question, of course, long running kind of question between
Speaker 2: Egypt and Israel has been on the tunnels. And so
Speaker 2: there was a school of thought within the Israeli military
Speaker 2: that you had to control the Philadelphia Curdle in order
Speaker 2: to control the tunnels. However, a couple of things, and
Speaker 2: I think this explains the shift within the military and
Speaker 2: why Gallant is saying other things, The Israelis realize that
Speaker 2: there are other ways that they can control those tunnels.
Speaker 2: In fact, possibly a third of the tunnels are not
Speaker 2: even you know, they're they're not even under Israeli control now.
Speaker 2: And yet there are other ways, you know, you find
Speaker 2: out where the entrances are et cetera, et cetera, number
Speaker 2: one and sitting on the Fidelphi Cradle Mikes number target
Speaker 2: that was kleave. You know, the chiefest staffs come to say, look,
Speaker 2: we're sitting here on ground, but the problem is underground.
Speaker 2: We have expertise technology to pursue the problem underground. Let's
Speaker 2: not sit here on ground and we're offending you know,
Speaker 2: the Egyptians. At the same time, there's all kinds of
Speaker 2: reasons not to. But thirdly, perhaps the strongest argument, this
Speaker 2: isn't coming from outside, it's coming from within the Israeli military.
Speaker 2: And that is almost one hundred percent of the munitions
Speaker 2: that they are finding now, have been finding in the
Speaker 2: last two months were manufactured in Gaza. They were not
Speaker 2: brought in from outside to include components, you know, components
Speaker 2: from So the point is that there are those within
Speaker 2: the US, within the Israelis right in military, who are
Speaker 2: claiming that Netnia, who is making the Philadelphia codle a
Speaker 2: blocking point when it should not be. So it is something, yeah.
Speaker 3: And that's something Bibe N'atanielle is very good at. I mean,
Speaker 3: this is a guy who is an expert at maneuvering
Speaker 3: US politics. He did it under Bill Clinton. He did
Speaker 3: it again under Barack Obama, under Trump even and now
Speaker 3: with the Biden administration. He understands how to pull the levers.
Speaker 3: He goes to Congress when when he's upset with the
Speaker 3: White House. He plays to the US public when he's
Speaker 3: when there's a message he wants to send out. We saw,
Speaker 3: you know, he gave an interview to Fox just recently,
Speaker 3: gave a press conference just to US media just in
Speaker 3: the last few days. So he's a very shrewd operator
Speaker 3: when it comes to addressing a Western audience and his
Speaker 3: ultimate game, and he's been successful at it.
Speaker 2: So stay as a as a reminder to pass some
Speaker 2: of the listeners and realize that Netna, who kind of
Speaker 2: cut his teeth in debate in the US telet on
Speaker 2: the TV circuit, you know, in the in the eighties,
Speaker 2: writing became quite a popular figure. I mean, he's articulate,
Speaker 2: he's uh, you know, he appears to be very bright
Speaker 2: and uh and and he appeared and obviously to have
Speaker 2: a grasp of the topic way beyond the American public.
Speaker 2: And so it appeared that he was explaining things that
Speaker 2: they didn't know while kind of presenting his view of
Speaker 2: the world.
Speaker 3: Absolutely. And I mean this is a guy, he's an
Speaker 3: a MIT graduate. You know, he spent time in Pennsylvania.
Speaker 3: And you don't have anybody from the other side. No,
Speaker 3: you don't have any not even Palestinian, any Arab official.
Speaker 2: That means, and that's what I was going to ask
Speaker 2: you about, Joyce. It's got to be supremely you know,
Speaker 2: I'm not talking about Hamas. I'm just talking about the
Speaker 2: Palestinian cause. Do you see anyone on the horizon at all?
Speaker 2: You know, a boss is uh, A boss has has lost.
Speaker 2: I think it's fair to say all credibility. You know,
Speaker 2: his people and Hermas has let them down this path.
Speaker 2: But there is no one who can who has the
Speaker 2: charisma and the smarts except for and you're can remind
Speaker 2: me of his name. He's in Israeli prison right now.
Speaker 3: Totally agreed, a boss. He's eighty seven years old. He's
Speaker 3: viewed as corrupt, He's viewed as just somebody who's who's
Speaker 3: not championing the Palestinian cause. Mind you, this is a
Speaker 3: guy that came to power after the Second Antifada saying
Speaker 3: we have to pursue peaceful resistance.
Speaker 2: We have to people wanted to be here at the time, but.
Speaker 3: Not for sure. So he's he he came with you know,
Speaker 3: us backing, he's close to Russia, and there were high
Speaker 3: hopes for him. But when it came to governance, when
Speaker 3: it came to establishing agreements, past agreements, implementing them with
Speaker 3: Israel was miserable failure for the Palestinian authority. That's now
Speaker 3: from all poles, seen as very unpopular, not just in
Speaker 3: Gaza but also in the West Bank. Marjuan Barruti, the
Speaker 3: the guy you mentioned, he's he's the most popular among
Speaker 3: the Palestinians, but there is very little chance that Israel
Speaker 3: would release him. He's charged with terrorism and is serving
Speaker 3: a jail sentence. You've had, of course, you know the
Speaker 3: former Hamas leader smile and he he was a little
Speaker 3: bit more popular than Yeah, yes, and we're the current leader.
Speaker 3: But he was killed, as we know in tron.
Speaker 2: That's you know, that's kind of ironic, isn't it. That
Speaker 2: we've talked about this that the path of targeted assassinations
Speaker 2: sometimes leads you to a worse often leads you to
Speaker 2: We've seen that in the United States, and so now
Speaker 2: we're left with nothing but extremists except for Marwan Barghuti,
Speaker 2: who is in jail. What is the Israeli's I get it,
Speaker 2: he's accused of terrorism, but so are they all. And
Speaker 2: in fact, the Israelis have released Palestinians with Israeli blood
Speaker 2: on their hands, so there is a precedent here. You know,
Speaker 2: I'm going back to the release of our prisoners. It
Speaker 2: seems now that this that this is maybe an arbitrary
Speaker 2: opposition to you see what I'm saying. Israelis have already
Speaker 2: been have They've already waived that concern about releasing Palestinians
Speaker 2: who killed Israelis. So now they have a chance to
Speaker 2: release someone at least who can provide more moderate leadership
Speaker 2: than Yaya Sema they have.
Speaker 3: But in this case particularly, I don't think they actually
Speaker 3: have a plan on what to do later. Their immediate
Speaker 3: plan is, you know, we're gonna drive full force in Gaza.
Speaker 3: It's been ten months. Hamas has not been completely defeated.
Speaker 3: So the only plan on the table is to just
Speaker 3: prolong the war. There is no day after plan. And
Speaker 3: who takes control. Will it be the Palaestinian authority, will
Speaker 3: it be a different offshoot of Hamas, will it be
Speaker 3: an Arab force that comes to Gaza. So, particularly because
Speaker 3: they don't have uh these plans in place, and they
Speaker 3: don't have they have not made these decisions, it's hard
Speaker 3: to see them making the political decision of releasing Marjuan
Speaker 3: Berruti because they would be just endermining the Palestinian authority's
Speaker 3: he's more popular than a bas and then they's just
Speaker 3: he would also be undermining hamas in in Gaza. So
Speaker 3: it's a little bit complicated at the moment in terms
Speaker 3: of seeing Berruti out. I think the more immediate projection is,
Speaker 3: you know, they're going to continue with this war until
Speaker 3: something happens within Israel or with the US election on
Speaker 3: November five.
Speaker 2: In the meantime, what is what are some of the
Speaker 2: things that are happening some of the train things that
Speaker 2: you're observing that you know causing you concern. You mentioned
Speaker 2: activity in the West Bank, but on both sides violence,
Speaker 2: you know, flaring violence on the on the West Bank
Speaker 2: that's kind of been I'm going to use a cliche,
Speaker 2: simmering powder cake since seven October. And now that that
Speaker 2: doesn't seem to be any prospect for a ceasefire, or
Speaker 2: if there is no prospect, do you see things getting
Speaker 2: worse there.
Speaker 3: They are getting worse. I mean, we've seen three US citizens,
Speaker 3: at least three US citizens have been killed in the
Speaker 3: West Bank since October seven by Israeli forces. We are
Speaker 3: seeing Israel launched in operation recently in the West Bank
Speaker 3: in the Genine Camp to uh just confront militants there.
Speaker 3: At the same time we're seeing hundreds of Palestinians have
Speaker 3: been killed. Another another issue that's a powder keg in
Speaker 3: the West Bank is settlers violence. Settlements, you know, for
Speaker 3: the who don't know, are illegal housing projects and units
Speaker 3: that Israel has established in the West Bank since nineteen
Speaker 3: sixty seven. It's illegal because it's an occupied territory. Just
Speaker 3: between and in between October seven and now, we've seen
Speaker 3: these settlers attacks go over twelve hundred by the numbers.
Speaker 3: I saw actually just a few days ago, twelve hundred
Speaker 3: attacks by settlers against the Palestinians. So you're seeing even
Speaker 3: between the settlers and the Palestinian population a higher degree
Speaker 3: of animosity. And within the West Bank there are more
Speaker 3: militant groups. There are people that are very upset what's
Speaker 3: happening in Gaza, so they're protesting. But you're seeing also
Speaker 3: like a group, for example, its name is the Lions. Then, uh,
Speaker 3: that's a fairly new group and they've they're expanding Hamas
Speaker 3: is gaining popularity in the West Bank as well. So
Speaker 3: can Israel handle a war in Gaza and an eruption
Speaker 3: in the West Bank. It's getting much more complicated to
Speaker 3: Israel to the status agreements that were signed in Oslo
Speaker 3: and later on in the West Bank. So it's an
Speaker 3: important issue to monitor and to see how the Palestinian
Speaker 3: authority as well can navigate this one.
Speaker 2: Are we seeing Israeli's move into so in two areas
Speaker 2: that formerly were not administered by them within the West Bank?
Speaker 2: You know, I mean categories of areas in other ways.
Speaker 3: I'm sorry, Yes, So you're seeing more rates happening at
Speaker 3: night in Ablos and Janine, as I mentioned, And these
Speaker 3: are areas that we've seen more Palestinian autonomy around them
Speaker 3: after Oslo. But because of the situation, because where the
Speaker 3: Palestinian authority is today, you're seeing Israel just move more
Speaker 3: aggressively within the West Bank. For you know, for me
Speaker 3: sitting here in Washington, I can tell you the Administration,
Speaker 3: the State Department, the White House, they're worried if the
Speaker 3: Palestinian authority can actually handle the situation in the West Bank.
Speaker 3: They're worried that a collapse of the Palestinian authority could
Speaker 3: also mean a collapse of the security situation from the
Speaker 3: Palestinian side in the West Bank.
Speaker 2: Yeah, just so very quickly, so after Oslow, all of
Speaker 2: the territory that had been captured by Israel in nineteen
Speaker 2: sixty seven became subject two kind of the three categories.
Speaker 2: It's either security and administration provided by the Israelis. I
Speaker 2: think that's kind of whatever. It's like ABC, right, So
Speaker 2: either by security administration or B the Israelis provides security,
Speaker 2: the Palestinians provide administration, or see the Palestinians provide security administration.
Speaker 2: And the concern from the US perspective is that you
Speaker 2: were seeing more of the Israeli you know, of the
Speaker 2: Israelis going into B and C areas on on these rates.
Speaker 2: The areas A are those areas about the facto, you know,
Speaker 2: it's where settlements have sprung up and it's only Israelis.
Speaker 2: But but you know, as as Joyce has said, even settlement,
Speaker 2: you know, the area as are technically illegal, but they're
Speaker 2: just the fat of complee. So the Oslo Accords, I mean.
Speaker 3: We're we're now three decades after Arsenal. Oh, it's it's
Speaker 3: hard to see what's left from that agreement that that
Speaker 3: stands today. It's you know, the areas you've mentioned, the A,
Speaker 3: B and C are very much just that that status
Speaker 3: is no longer there, in part because militants have emerged,
Speaker 3: new militants organizations have emerged in the West Bank. Israel
Speaker 3: has moved in more aggressively, and the area A that
Speaker 3: you mentioned where the settlers are, we're seeing more clashes.
Speaker 3: These are coming sometimes into Palestinian areas, and there has
Speaker 3: been a push since October seven to get the Palaestinian
Speaker 3: population out of areas that are close to settlements. So
Speaker 3: we've seen some Palestinian you know, locals leave because of
Speaker 3: the they're worried about settlers, settlers, violence and tach and
Speaker 3: this very much undercovered. I think few outlets did report THEMSNBC,
Speaker 3: CNN did reports about that. So it's really untenable when
Speaker 3: you're talking about the Palestinian is really status quol and
Speaker 3: andy here. I think it's really important because we forget
Speaker 3: sometimes that we haven't seen negotiations between Israelis and the
Speaker 3: Palestinians since twenty thirteen. And that's a major reason that
Speaker 3: we cannot overlook and how we got here. The Trump
Speaker 3: administration was the first administration in a long time that
Speaker 3: did not have the Israelis and the Palestinians talk and
Speaker 3: negotiate around the same table. The Biden administration tried to
Speaker 3: reverse some of the Trump administration decisions, but we still
Speaker 3: didn't see negotiations and the failure of diplomacy. That's why
Speaker 3: we are where we are to It's not just because
Speaker 3: you know, Hamas controls Gaza, of course that's another reason,
Speaker 3: but but yeah, failure.
Speaker 2: There was no negotiation outlet, and arguably the US kind
Speaker 2: of lost its way in negotiation stance. So it had
Speaker 2: always been the US stance for a two state solution,
Speaker 2: and that, you know, and to begin with that and
Speaker 2: then to sort out the more tangled problems. The settlements
Speaker 2: is one, the right of return for Palestinian refugees potentially
Speaker 2: is another. But now it appears that the two state
Speaker 2: solution is just hard. It's hard to imagine getting that
Speaker 2: from here, two states living side by side.
Speaker 3: You know, it looks like amy Raj I mean, honestly,
Speaker 3: if you look at that map, how do you even
Speaker 3: connect those banks to Gazana, let alone, how do you
Speaker 3: even connect the West Bank within itself. And then we
Speaker 3: have Jerusalem is another issue. We have the Jordan River.
Speaker 3: This Israel wants control there. So it's it's we are
Speaker 3: in a really bad place in this in this conflict.
Speaker 3: And I don't say, uh, this lightly and there is
Speaker 3: I hope we can get to reassess. But the uh,
Speaker 3: the assumption that you could you know, overlook the Palestinian
Speaker 3: is really conflict and just focus on outside agreements that
Speaker 3: has that has you know, fell flat on on October seven.
Speaker 3: Of course you can get an agreement with bahin with
Speaker 3: the United Arab Emirates normalization, but unless you address the
Speaker 3: elephant in the room that has been for a years now,
Speaker 3: the Palestinian is really conflict. There is no stability, long
Speaker 3: term stability in the in the Middle East. You're seeing
Speaker 3: the Pentagon overstretched, sending aircraft, aircraft carriers, you know, reinforcing
Speaker 3: its presence in the Middle East.
Speaker 2: At the expense of the Pacific It's expenses.
Speaker 3: Then that's that's unsustainable. I mean, this is just not
Speaker 3: a good situation. The alternative would have been a more
Speaker 3: aggressive diplomatic push from the Obama administration going to the
Speaker 3: Trump administration and maybe, you know, we can dream that
Speaker 3: it would have been concluded in an agreement during the
Speaker 3: the Biden administration. That didn't happen. Instead, we saw these
Speaker 3: elements of conflict spiral out of control. And that's why
Speaker 3: we are here today and in.
Speaker 2: Fantas defendants to the US too. Although you know, we
Speaker 2: normally we don't shy away from criticism. Arguably with the
Speaker 2: death of Jitzapara being the kind of the anchor point
Speaker 2: for the piece, you know, for the conciliatory movement disappeared
Speaker 2: within Israel. You know, it took a while to become evident,
Speaker 2: and it was a process that began, you know, back
Speaker 2: then and what was it nineteen ninety five or not, Yes,
Speaker 2: and arguably just and seven October kind of completed that
Speaker 2: process of absolute polarization.
Speaker 3: That's one way to look at it. And the closest
Speaker 3: we've come to a deal was perhaps Camp David too
Speaker 3: in nineteen nineteen nine, two thousand with Bill Clinton at
Speaker 3: the time. Here he actually ran out of time. He
Speaker 3: couldn't conclude the agreement the Palestinians were divided among themsel
Speaker 3: else within within Fata, and Adapat said at the time,
Speaker 3: you know, he couldn't get the concessions he wanted on
Speaker 3: Jerusalem and the right of return. But after the two
Speaker 3: thousand Talks, it's just been Andy just Downhill.
Speaker 2: Saw the sorry Jerusalem is the other the right of
Speaker 2: return Jerusalem. We're two of these settlements. Settlements, yeah, security,
Speaker 2: and we haven't even got to there. It's like now
Speaker 2: for the Gaza piece, the real issue is what happens
Speaker 2: next within Gaza, and and that isn't even that isn't
Speaker 2: even up for discussion. Gosh So painted a extremely gloomy
Speaker 2: picture facts on the ground. So we haven't even talked
Speaker 2: about the North Joyce. What are your thoughts about that.
Speaker 2: We talked about problems simmering on the West Bank in
Speaker 2: a way that perhaps they haven't previously. We've talked about
Speaker 2: the instn Right. It's a affiliated group.
Speaker 3: They claim to be just their own Palestinian.
Speaker 2: Military have tremendous support on the rest they seem to have.
Speaker 3: They have support, they've been they've claimed responsibility for more
Speaker 3: attacks and and before October seven, even in the last
Speaker 3: year and a half and just uh. This situation just
Speaker 3: makes it for these groups to to get popularity because
Speaker 3: you have the Palestinian authority that's just incapable of delivering
Speaker 3: to its to its people, and you have the Israeli
Speaker 3: occupation that keeps feeding UH into their their ideology.
Speaker 2: So what about up north?
Speaker 3: Yes, that's a number area that we haven't talked about yet.
Speaker 3: I was just in Lebanon and in July, and at
Speaker 3: the time it was the specter of war was high
Speaker 3: between Israel and Hasbola. What we're seeing at the Lebanon
Speaker 3: Israel border is something is an escalation that we haven't
Speaker 3: seen since two thousand. So that year Israel left, we
Speaker 3: drew flam Lebanon. You need latterly there was no agreement.
Speaker 3: They they they withdrew the Can I just mute my computer?
Speaker 4: Okay, yeatas two thousand and six, it's muted for some reason,
Speaker 4: but it's okay.
Speaker 3: Hopefully one bus again. I apologize, right, we didn't hear it. Yeah,
Speaker 3: it wasn't good. So two thousand and six we had
Speaker 3: the big war. Yeah, and the Israeli is assumed then
Speaker 3: that Husbola will be contained. It was this they call
Speaker 3: it mowing the lawn strategy that they can come in
Speaker 3: every few years, or they can hit Hasbola and they
Speaker 3: can just contain and deter the Iran backed party in Lebanon.
Speaker 3: The problem is, you know, eighteen years since two thousand
Speaker 3: and six, Husbola is much larger than it was. It
Speaker 3: has now presence in Syria, it has presence in Iraq,
Speaker 3: it has presence in Yemen. It re armed and is
Speaker 3: very confident within Lebanon two because it has a friendly government.
Speaker 3: There is no president in the country, so the situation
Speaker 3: is fragile, but we were able to avoid an all
Speaker 3: out war a couple weeks ago when Hasbola retaliated against Israel.
Speaker 3: Having said that this situation is also unsustainable because you
Speaker 3: have the Israeli population in the north. They had to
Speaker 3: leave their towns, they had to leave their homes. You
Speaker 3: have a situation too in South Lebanon where displacement has happened.
Speaker 3: Schools are reopening in September. So can the US arrange
Speaker 3: a deal between Hasbola and Israel, between Lebanon and Israel
Speaker 3: that includes Hasbola without Gaza ceasefire. We're hearing more about
Speaker 3: this lately. Hopefully if this happens, that problem will be
Speaker 3: at least contained until we see what happens in Gaza.
Speaker 3: The issue, of course has Bolah has maintained that they
Speaker 3: will not stop their attacks until they see it guys,
Speaker 3: as he's fired. So it depends what you as negotiators
Speaker 3: can deliver on on this issue.
Speaker 2: Is there any what are your thoughts about what's going
Speaker 2: through in Nazuela's mind? Uh, you know, I mean there's
Speaker 2: it's there's speculation about whether he is waiting for the
Speaker 2: go from Iran, whether he's an independent guy. But he's
Speaker 2: concerned about you know, I'm using it. I'll use a
Speaker 2: crude American expression. He's concerned about shitting in his own
Speaker 2: nest at this point in time, right, always a concern
Speaker 2: for him, always, you know. But he doesn't love Lebanon.
Speaker 2: He's not a Lebanese patriot. It's it's purely utilitarian relationship. Right.
Speaker 2: He needs a haven and Lebanon is his haven. So
Speaker 2: what what do you think? What do you We'll pay
Speaker 2: you extra if you get this right, I mean, we'll
Speaker 2: pay you I mean, you know, but if you get
Speaker 2: that's right, that's quite A.
Speaker 3: Is a very interesting guy. He is by far the
Speaker 3: most formidable leader of the group. And that's why it's bustained.
Speaker 2: It's you tell us a little bit about him, you know,
Speaker 2: we use his name a lot. But yes, so in
Speaker 2: a sense a different I'm not I'm not talking about ethically.
Speaker 2: I'm talking about his just his his pension, his charisma,
Speaker 2: his quality as a leader.
Speaker 3: So I can tell you as an Arabic speaker, as
Speaker 3: somebody who listens to his speeches, his Arabic is formidable
Speaker 3: as an orator, as somebody from that region. When you
Speaker 3: look at other leaders, when you look even a hamas
Speaker 3: militant or officials, there is nobody that excels in delivery
Speaker 3: of the Arabic language like Hassan Nasralla does today. Of course,
Speaker 3: that doesn't negate the fact that his calculus is just
Speaker 3: independent of what happens to Lebanon. He dragged the country
Speaker 3: to a war that destroyed much of the Lebanese infrastructure.
Speaker 3: After it was rebuilt after the civil war there, he
Speaker 3: admittedly says, we get our money, we get our food,
Speaker 3: he said in his speech, we get our water from Iran.
Speaker 3: So you want to come at us with the Iran thing,
Speaker 3: we welcome it, he says. He does his decision independently.
Speaker 3: I'm not so sure because it seems since October seventh,
Speaker 3: Iran has been reluctant to wage a full front war
Speaker 3: against Israel. And we've seen Hasbelah stage attacks against Israel,
Speaker 3: but those have been contained. Even when Hasbalalah law no
Speaker 3: A lost close friend of his for at Sugar, the
Speaker 3: head of the the head of the missile production in
Speaker 3: the in the party, the response was was was you know,
Speaker 3: I mean, sure, israeled down many of the drones, but
Speaker 3: it could have been more. There was no border infiltration,
Speaker 3: no redline crossed exactly. So a very calculated guy. And
Speaker 3: I think at this point in time, his priority is
Speaker 3: maintaining the power he has in Lebanon, that's the their base,
Speaker 3: and he seems to be enjoying, you know, having larger
Speaker 3: influence Kepta, gone trade in Syria, having presence in Hirakiam
Speaker 3: and as we as we mentioned so very interesting.
Speaker 2: So so that they've got a they've got disrupting their
Speaker 2: revenue stream would be another consequence possible, the consequence of
Speaker 2: going to war again. Zuela points to Nuzuela as being
Speaker 2: a pragmatist and the fact that he is adhering to
Speaker 2: the rules of the game that both his Bolla and
Speaker 2: the Israelis talk about right without talking about to each other,
Speaker 2: they both understand the rules of the game. It's you know,
Speaker 2: you start off by hitting in the vicinity of what
Speaker 2: said area called Shabba Farms. You know what happens in
Speaker 2: Shabba Farms doesn't And then as long as it doesn't
Speaker 2: go south. And then you know, the next step is
Speaker 2: as long as it doesn't go north of the Latani
Speaker 2: River for the Israeli strikes, for the and and for Hisbolla.
Speaker 2: Interestingly enough, the red line they've worked out Israeli red
Speaker 2: lines don't go after Tel Aviv, right, you know, if
Speaker 2: you go off to Tel Aviv like that, now you
Speaker 2: now you're in that face now.
Speaker 3: But don't kill too many people.
Speaker 2: Yeah, focus on mostly military targets, et cetera, et cetera,
Speaker 2: and you keep the pots simmering and you keep the
Speaker 2: support coming without escalating into regional conflict.
Speaker 3: And that's that's more of a Biby Natagne who also
Speaker 3: calculus here. Because ahead of the Hasbola retaliation for the
Speaker 3: for the assassination of Sugar, some in the Israeli military
Speaker 3: advised to hit Beirut, to hit Hasbola headquarters as a
Speaker 3: preemptive move, and from the reporting that we've done that
Speaker 3: others have done. It was Biby Natagniello that said, no,
Speaker 3: I'm gonna wait, I'm gonna see what they do. We
Speaker 3: have very interesting carriers, we have US intelligence helping us,
Speaker 3: and then we would fend off that retaliation instead of
Speaker 3: doing a preemptive strike. So, in a way, a full
Speaker 3: blown war is not in the interest of Hezbollah nor
Speaker 3: Israel at the moment. Could this change, Could there be
Speaker 3: a miscalculation, of course, but Andy, at this point, I
Speaker 3: think it's not in their in their interest. What about Iran, Yes,
Speaker 3: so we're still waiting for that Iranian response to Hani
Speaker 3: is killing right as we wait, it seems the Iranians
Speaker 3: also don't want to UH to go in a full
Speaker 3: front war. There is a lot happening in Iran internally
Speaker 3: as we know. You know, their their president was killed
Speaker 3: in a in a plane crash. The foreign minister was
Speaker 3: in the same plane as well. UH. Their economy is
Speaker 3: not doing well, so there is so much change within
Speaker 3: Iran for a new lead ship to establish UH itself
Speaker 3: and then they will see what comes with their foreign policy.
Speaker 3: They seem also to be more focused on their nuclear program.
Speaker 3: They're advancing that they're enriching more so if you ask me,
Speaker 3: and that's pure opinion, their their biggest retaliation would be,
Speaker 3: you know, coming closer to a uh break yeah, exactly
Speaker 3: than anything they would do in you know, like firing
Speaker 3: missiles or other sort of attack against Israel.
Speaker 2: And by the way, Western you know, the nuclear watchdog
Speaker 2: agencies and the gosh, what's it called, the u N
Speaker 2: It doesn't matter that, you know, the new u N
Speaker 2: nuclear mon aah yeah, and and other experts. So together
Speaker 2: they estimate worst case scenario that Iran is six months
Speaker 2: from breakout. By that, I mean developing enough and rich
Speaker 2: uranium to manufacture a weapon. Now you still have to
Speaker 2: weaponize it. It could take two years beyond that, you know,
Speaker 2: to put it on it or longer to actually weaponize that.
Speaker 2: But that that's the worst case scenario. Other estimates have it,
Speaker 2: you know, a couple of years from breakout and then
Speaker 2: you know, you add a few years onto them. But
Speaker 2: the the problem is that there is not no one
Speaker 2: can see an obstacle to prevent the uraniums from doing this.
Speaker 2: Is that correct? I mean short of all out war,
Speaker 2: no one can think of any diplomatic tools or any
Speaker 2: other means to prevent them from having enough and rich
Speaker 2: uranium if that's what they want to do now, They
Speaker 2: at the same time are aware that once they do
Speaker 2: decide to break out, the West will find out. And
Speaker 2: that is that that you know. And they've crossed the
Speaker 2: red line too, So there's this delicate balance. Is that
Speaker 2: a fair way to put it?
Speaker 3: You've put it much better than I would do. I'm
Speaker 3: not a nuclear expert, but even within estimates that you
Speaker 3: hear from regional countries, sometimes you hear from Israeli. Is
Speaker 3: that period is shorter than six months?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've heard yes, Israeli. So I'm trying to err
Speaker 2: on the side of conservative estimates, right.
Speaker 3: And we had, you know, in until twenty eighteen, you
Speaker 3: had an agreement that was not perfect, but that capped
Speaker 3: that program, the JCPOA. The US withdrew from that agreement
Speaker 3: under Trump, and now most of the clauses in the
Speaker 3: agreement are about to expire anyway, so you can return
Speaker 3: to that. The conversation will have to again come to November.
Speaker 3: Who wins the White House? What kind of a new
Speaker 3: nuclear deal you can reach with the Iranians. Can you
Speaker 3: tempt them into you know, accepting a deal that would
Speaker 3: give them sanctioned relief, would give them more financial incentives
Speaker 3: than going for a nuclear weapon perhaps, But that has
Speaker 3: to wait for the you know, for the new administration
Speaker 3: to come into office. There is no time and there
Speaker 3: is no room at the moment for negotiations. The Europeans
Speaker 3: have been trying to you know, be a back channel
Speaker 3: in sending messages the Swiss particularly that our money is
Speaker 3: to at least contain the nuclear program, but it's not
Speaker 3: in a in a good place. The bigger question, as well, Andy,
Speaker 3: is would Israel go unilatterally for a strike. Do they
Speaker 3: have the weaponry to do it, the sort of bombers
Speaker 3: that you know more about than me to do that.
Speaker 3: Would they inform the US? Would they not? That's that's
Speaker 3: a big one.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, And we yeah, we we in the
Speaker 2: US military have lived with that prospect, as you know,
Speaker 2: and a lot of what I did personally in the
Speaker 2: military was to try and avert that happening, you know,
Speaker 2: to to offer other alternatives, or to bring military pressure
Speaker 2: on Iran below the level of armed conflict or bring
Speaker 2: pressure on Iran below the level of armed conflict too
Speaker 2: to alter course, but at the same time persuading the
Speaker 2: Israelis that there that this would be a disastrous move
Speaker 2: and that the US would guarantee Israel's security. But the
Speaker 2: implicit return on that is that Israel would not attack Iran.
Speaker 2: You know, my my policy viewpoint of that is, I
Speaker 2: think is that it's remained the same. You know, that
Speaker 2: is the policy is the US is at all costs, Well,
Speaker 2: we're trying to prevent that happening. At the same time,
Speaker 2: US does not went around to have a nuclear weapon.
Speaker 2: So walking that line has been a very is what
Speaker 2: it continues to happen. I have tremendous you know, you
Speaker 2: are You're there at the independagon far more often than
Speaker 2: I am. Right now, What is what is your kind
Speaker 2: of feeling about, you know, the political part aside about
Speaker 2: handling Iran, Is there is there a do you get
Speaker 2: to feel that there is a there are lines of
Speaker 2: communication for negotiation or or has Iran kind of turned
Speaker 2: off the phone and said, Okay, we're going to get
Speaker 2: a head down and in our own business for a
Speaker 2: while and let you worry about what we're doing.
Speaker 3: So good news. They haven't turned off the phone, they
Speaker 3: haven't turned off communications. Despite the escalation around the Gaza War,
Speaker 3: We've seen at least two meetings, not direct indirect between
Speaker 3: US officials that went to Oman, the small country in
Speaker 3: the Gulf, and Iranian officials Geme and the Omanis were mediating.
Speaker 3: That was purely about the nuclear the nuclear issue. The
Speaker 3: Pentagon and I mean and rightly so, they're very concerned
Speaker 3: that the aftermath of the Gaza War is dragging the
Speaker 3: US deeper into the Middle East. It's diverting resources and
Speaker 3: it's a big burden on the strategy. I mean, this
Speaker 3: is not I mean, Secretary Austin didn't come to office
Speaker 3: wanting to spend more of his resources in in the
Speaker 3: Middle East. As you mentioned, there is the Asia Pacific.
Speaker 3: There are other challenges between you know, Russia, Ukraine that
Speaker 3: the US would rather spend more of its assets. Uh there.
Speaker 3: So in that in that sense, the priority is now
Speaker 3: to contain the situation, to still act as a deterrence.
Speaker 3: But we need a ceasefire in Gaza because absent of that,
Speaker 3: it's hard to contain the other side. It's hard to
Speaker 3: get to a situation off at least cold peace between
Speaker 3: Iran and its proxies, especially the Houthi Is. I mean,
Speaker 3: these group that's very helpful for Iran and in the.
Speaker 2: As disrupting the global yes economy right now, all things
Speaker 2: mitigate well, you know, absolute US interests are for there
Speaker 2: to be a ceasefire. I would say, you know, there's
Speaker 2: the US interests absolutely. It's very it's very interesting to
Speaker 2: hear also what Netna Who is saying, because I've heard
Speaker 2: this among some you know, number of right wing Israeli's.
Speaker 2: A couple of things. One is, you know, two state
Speaker 2: solution is off the table. You know, this is the
Speaker 2: concerning thing about this though, Joyce is it's not just
Speaker 2: right wing Israeli's that's like most Israeli since seven October,
Speaker 2: and Netna Who's kind of embodying that fear and emphasizing it.
Speaker 2: But but the other piece is that there is this
Speaker 2: kind of attempt to continuously deconstruct what's happening in Gaza
Speaker 2: from the threat up north on on Netna Who's side. Hey,
Speaker 2: these are two separate issues, you know, the Palestinian issues
Speaker 2: separate from Haboala has Bolla is a existential way you
Speaker 2: shouldn't tie them together, whereas Israel's adversaries are making a
Speaker 2: clear no, we see these as very much tied and
Speaker 2: and that is that's presenting a negotiation a problem for
Speaker 2: the United States, right because yeah, I know you're now
Speaker 2: there's a clear possible divergence between US interests regional stability
Speaker 2: and Israeli interests or net Hu's interest in particular and
Speaker 2: full interest. But a fact, a fact for the.
Speaker 3: First time in this conflict, when you talk about non
Speaker 3: state actors in the Middle East, you're seeing a multi
Speaker 3: front war against Israel. These are separate fronts. So we've
Speaker 3: talked about Lebanon, We've talked about Gaza, of course, but
Speaker 3: you're also you know, a Yemen iraq I rock through Syria.
Speaker 3: So this is this is new in this conflict. I mean,
Speaker 3: of course, you had the the A in the pl
Speaker 3: all fighters back in the seventies and the eighties, but
Speaker 3: it was nothing like this. You've had state actors quite
Speaker 3: Israel nineteen seventy three, nineteen sixty seven. Uh, this is different,
Speaker 3: and this is a challenge for Israel how it addresses
Speaker 3: different different threats. But under two state solution, yes, there's
Speaker 3: a lot of reasons to to to be skeptic about it.
Speaker 3: But the main argument for it still is what is
Speaker 3: the alternative? Yeah, I mean, are we going with John
Speaker 3: Bolton the three state solution. Let's say that's I mean,
Speaker 3: that's that's a joke. Yeah, that's got to Egypt and
Speaker 3: was back to Jordan. That's just not one state. More
Speaker 3: so after October seventh, the Israeli Is would not want
Speaker 3: a one state. Do you pro long the occupation? The
Speaker 3: status quo? Uh, those don't end well, you know in
Speaker 3: in in history. So this is this is just there
Speaker 3: is no alternative. The two state solution is still the
Speaker 3: strongest argument of the under table. How do we get there?
Speaker 2: Has because ignoring, ignoring the problem arguably has got us
Speaker 2: by us, I mean collectively in this in the position
Speaker 2: where we are now. Yes, no negotiations for nine years,
Speaker 2: and yet in the meantime, several operations that took place
Speaker 2: in Gaza and life continued and never thought that the
Speaker 2: problem had gone away.
Speaker 3: And this is where US Congress is also liable for
Speaker 3: this one, because for the longest time they were they allowed,
Speaker 3: they allowed themselves to be to be used by Benjamin
Speaker 3: and Yahouh as a to exert pressure on any president
Speaker 3: who's who's in office, and that came at the expense
Speaker 3: of yours national interest, which is to achievete to state solution,
Speaker 3: which is to proceed with negotiations. This, I mean, this
Speaker 3: is not this is not sustainable.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, I mean I I if I was.
Speaker 2: We weren't hoping for a solution necessarily to this, but
Speaker 2: Joyce was very disappointed. You didn't get us.
Speaker 3: I know, we'll have to do Yeah.
Speaker 2: Is there anything this has been terrific? Is there anything
Speaker 2: else that we haven't talked about, Anything we've talked about
Speaker 2: that you'd like to mention.
Speaker 3: I mean, just to lead to end it on a hopeful,
Speaker 3: hopeful note. You know, you talk to Palestinians and Israelis,
Speaker 3: and there are people on both sides who who want
Speaker 3: this UH to end. There are figures in Israeli and
Speaker 3: Palestinian politics. There was a paper by former Prime Minister
Speaker 3: it would All Mert and Palestinian negotiator Nasser Kudua just
Speaker 3: in the last few days proposing a solution. So there
Speaker 3: are voices that can still get us out of this UH,
Speaker 3: this chaos that we're in. This this, yes, exactly, and
Speaker 3: you have to have the create the political climate that
Speaker 3: would get us, that would get us there, and I
Speaker 3: personally believe this this region is meant for coexistence. It's
Speaker 3: been the case in the past, it can be the
Speaker 3: case in the future. Is just we really need UH
Speaker 3: to do diplomacy better as as Americans, as US administration
Speaker 3: and I don't know, we can only hope for for
Speaker 3: better days ahead.
Speaker 2: Andy well choice on that, on that, less that then,
Speaker 2: happy note, but absolutely honest, fascinating discussion. Thank you so much,
Speaker 2: and yes we will definitely, we will definitely get you back,
Speaker 2: hopefully hopefully to analyze things as they as they get better.
Speaker 3: Let's hope. So thank you. Yeah.
Speaker 2: In the meantime, please to everyone that you're going to
Speaker 2: appear on on eyes on, terribly impressed on on Monday,
Speaker 2: and I'm looking forward to it. This was a great episode.
Speaker 2: D oh yeah, and Choyce, so you can be found
Speaker 2: at George Washington University, UH and UH and also our
Speaker 2: monitor where you were the senior news editor. I'm not
Speaker 2: telling you that so you don't know it. I'm telling
Speaker 2: everyone else and d over to you for for closing comment.
Speaker 4: Yeah. So all of Joyce's links will be in the
Speaker 4: description down below. In the show notes. So take a look. There.
Speaker 4: She's on Twitter at joyce Underscore. Great Twitter feed. She's
Speaker 4: very much plugged into the Middle East. It's a great
Speaker 4: follow and uh yeah for us, Andy's info is down
Speaker 4: in the description is Substack. Everything you need to know
Speaker 4: is amazing book. I have to say that every every
Speaker 4: episode day you'll read it. I did read it. Actually,
Speaker 4: it's one of the only books I've ever read.
Speaker 2: And of course.
Speaker 4: The best way to support the show is Patreon dot com,
Speaker 4: slash the teamhouse. All the information is down in the description.
Speaker 3: Thank you, thank you so much.