WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.280 --> 00:00:02.319 Hey guys, it's Jack. I just wanted to talk to 2 00:00:02.359 --> 00:00:04.879 you today about a way that you can help support 3 00:00:04.879 --> 00:00:08.400 the podcast if you're not already to support the channel 4 00:00:08.679 --> 00:00:12.119 is to become a Patreon member. So we have Patreon 5 00:00:12.199 --> 00:00:15.439 memberships that started just five dollars a month, and when 6 00:00:15.519 --> 00:00:18.000 you sign up, you get access to all of our 7 00:00:18.039 --> 00:00:21.480 episodes add free. That's the big bonus for that. I mean, 8 00:00:21.480 --> 00:00:25.280 we also do some Patreon bonus episodes for our subscribers, 9 00:00:26.000 --> 00:00:28.399 but this is the biggest and best way that you 10 00:00:28.440 --> 00:00:33.240 can support the Teamhouse channel and podcast if you'd like to, 11 00:00:33.759 --> 00:00:36.200 and we really appreciate that, So go and check us 12 00:00:36.200 --> 00:00:39.240 out at patreon dot com slash the Teamhouse. 13 00:00:39.439 --> 00:00:42.439 Hello everyone, welcome to another episode of I Soon. I'm 14 00:00:42.479 --> 00:00:46.920 Andy Gilber and there's d Concost told you let's save 15 00:00:47.000 --> 00:00:50.399 you having to introduce yourself. Thank you more importantly than 16 00:00:50.399 --> 00:00:54.920 either of us. We have a guest today, doctor Joyce Karan, 17 00:00:55.520 --> 00:00:59.520 who is seen in news editor at Al Monitor, which 18 00:00:59.600 --> 00:01:07.400 is saying, a major Middle East news agency outlet, and 19 00:01:07.439 --> 00:01:13.040 she also teaches at George Washington University. Choice is great 20 00:01:13.040 --> 00:01:17.400 to have you on today, and so topic bajour is 21 00:01:17.439 --> 00:01:19.480 the Middle East and I think We can all begin 22 00:01:19.599 --> 00:01:22.400 by saying, this is a very uncertain time, as we 23 00:01:22.560 --> 00:01:26.400 have every single episode for the last ten months. So 24 00:01:26.439 --> 00:01:30.359 what are your thoughts? What are prospects of the peace 25 00:01:30.799 --> 00:01:33.599 in the Middle East. I never thought I'd be actually 26 00:01:33.680 --> 00:01:35.879 able to ask that question, but there you go. 27 00:01:36.519 --> 00:01:38.920 Now, Andy, great to be with you. I've been reporting 28 00:01:39.000 --> 00:01:42.280 on that region for over two decades and I have 29 00:01:42.359 --> 00:01:47.719 to tell you we've seen nothing like the last ten months. 30 00:01:47.799 --> 00:01:54.079 The level of fragility instability in the region is different 31 00:01:55.319 --> 00:01:59.680 this time. The Gaza war, the conflict on both sides 32 00:01:59.840 --> 00:02:07.319 is real, and UH and Hamas is UH is more charged. 33 00:02:07.840 --> 00:02:11.639 UH has a global echo to it than other conflicts 34 00:02:11.680 --> 00:02:16.039 and wars we've covered UH in that region. Unfortunately, I 35 00:02:16.080 --> 00:02:19.080 wish I had good news for you on where the 36 00:02:19.120 --> 00:02:23.400 conflict is. It's nowhere good. We were a little bit 37 00:02:23.479 --> 00:02:30.120 more hopeful about a ceasefire maybe three months ago in June. 38 00:02:31.039 --> 00:02:35.560 Right now it looks less likely. It seems both sides 39 00:02:35.680 --> 00:02:41.960 are dug in in UH zero sum game. That Israelly 40 00:02:42.000 --> 00:02:48.759 Prime Minister is determined on a mission to defeat Hamas. 41 00:02:49.000 --> 00:02:53.319 It's unclear what that means on the ground, because ten 42 00:02:53.360 --> 00:02:58.280 months in Hamas is still there they're still calling the 43 00:02:58.319 --> 00:03:03.560 shots h in Gaza. You've seen what happened with the 44 00:03:04.000 --> 00:03:08.599 six hostages that were killed by Hamas. We still have 45 00:03:08.919 --> 00:03:15.479 ninety six ninety seven hostages held in Gaza. But the 46 00:03:15.520 --> 00:03:21.879 prospects of a ceasefire are dim. US officials are finally 47 00:03:21.919 --> 00:03:26.479 coming to that conclusion. So it's a matter, you know, 48 00:03:26.560 --> 00:03:29.599 and this in this time that each side is trying 49 00:03:29.639 --> 00:03:32.680 to buy between now and the US elections, how each 50 00:03:32.800 --> 00:03:39.560 party can can can operate and achieve minimum minimal goals until. 51 00:03:40.960 --> 00:03:47.000 What are the That's a very interesting point. So arguably 52 00:03:47.879 --> 00:03:52.759 Netna who stands to gain by waiting until the elections, 53 00:03:52.800 --> 00:03:55.000 hoping at the very least the United States will be 54 00:03:55.000 --> 00:03:58.599 distracted and at the best that whoever comes in will 55 00:03:58.639 --> 00:04:04.240 be a little more conciliatory towards what he wants. But 56 00:04:04.960 --> 00:04:10.319 what you know, we we we know that obviously, I mean, 57 00:04:10.319 --> 00:04:13.759 we talked about Netna. Who's motivation for that? But what 58 00:04:13.840 --> 00:04:16.759 are they? What are these sticking points? What are the 59 00:04:16.920 --> 00:04:20.120 what kind of sense you getting from the dynamics of 60 00:04:20.199 --> 00:04:25.160 the negotiations from from both sides? What are the sticking 61 00:04:25.160 --> 00:04:31.519 points and who who is really blocking them? 62 00:04:31.879 --> 00:04:36.920 Very good question. So over time since these talks have 63 00:04:37.040 --> 00:04:39.759 been ongoing to try to get to seis fire agreements. 64 00:04:39.759 --> 00:04:46.240 There has been three major sticking points. One, who controls 65 00:04:46.800 --> 00:04:51.439 North Gaza can Hamas militants move back to the north. 66 00:04:51.800 --> 00:04:54.680 That's something that the Israelis have given a hard know 67 00:04:54.879 --> 00:04:58.439 on that this is this is non negotiable. So that's one. 68 00:04:58.759 --> 00:05:03.959 The second that's more important now is who controls the 69 00:05:04.000 --> 00:05:09.000 eight kilometer strip on the border with Egypt. It's known 70 00:05:09.079 --> 00:05:13.920 as the Philadelphia Corridor the Israeli side, I mean, it 71 00:05:13.959 --> 00:05:17.319 depends who on the Israeli side, but they're saying, the 72 00:05:17.319 --> 00:05:20.399 Prime Minister is saying this has to continue to be 73 00:05:20.560 --> 00:05:26.240 ours because that route, they say, is used to move 74 00:05:26.439 --> 00:05:32.439 arms and weapons to Hamas. That's a hard no for 75 00:05:32.600 --> 00:05:38.279 the Egyptian side because according to the Camp David agreement 76 00:05:39.360 --> 00:05:42.959 in nineteen seventy eight that established peace between Egypt and Israel, 77 00:05:43.680 --> 00:05:48.839 this route, Israel has to be away from it. So 78 00:05:49.319 --> 00:05:51.800 that's the second point. The third one, and that's been 79 00:05:52.160 --> 00:05:59.759 consistent throughout the negotiations, is the swap between which Palestinian 80 00:06:00.000 --> 00:06:06.759 prisoners get released and which hostages get released. So the 81 00:06:06.920 --> 00:06:10.079 US had put up a plan, you know, phase one, 82 00:06:10.160 --> 00:06:15.079 you have this number and Palestinian prisoners that would be 83 00:06:15.079 --> 00:06:17.959 agreed upon that would be released. What we're hearing from 84 00:06:18.000 --> 00:06:22.040 the Israeli government now, what we're hearing from Nataiello is 85 00:06:22.079 --> 00:06:25.639 some of the names on the Palestinian side. He doesn't 86 00:06:25.680 --> 00:06:30.240 want to budge on them. So these are the three 87 00:06:30.600 --> 00:06:34.279 main sticking points. Of course, there are other questions who 88 00:06:34.319 --> 00:06:39.079 control Gaza with the Palestinian authority be able to come 89 00:06:39.120 --> 00:06:43.240 back in what happens to the Israeli troops in Gaza, 90 00:06:43.480 --> 00:06:46.079 But these are seen to be in phase two and 91 00:06:46.199 --> 00:06:50.480 three of any agreement. The three points I talked about, 92 00:06:50.519 --> 00:06:53.759 these are in phase one and there's no agreement about it. 93 00:06:54.439 --> 00:07:00.600 Wow. So again it's the it's who among who's released 94 00:07:00.879 --> 00:07:06.800 in return for the hostages and the Philadelphia corradal itself, 95 00:07:06.959 --> 00:07:10.360 the two, you know, the two main sticking points and 96 00:07:10.399 --> 00:07:11.399 I'm sorry the first three. 97 00:07:12.680 --> 00:07:16.879 Yeah, and the Philadelphia corridor that becomes a bigger issue 98 00:07:16.879 --> 00:07:20.399 because you have Egypt involved. Is Israel going to risk 99 00:07:20.560 --> 00:07:25.519 the peace agreement, the first ever peace agreement it had 100 00:07:26.160 --> 00:07:29.680 with an Arab country to control the Philadelphia Here we're 101 00:07:29.720 --> 00:07:35.800 seeing divisions among Israeli officials. The Defense Minister Off Galant, 102 00:07:36.160 --> 00:07:39.560 He's saying, you know, hold on one second, why we 103 00:07:39.680 --> 00:07:45.680 don't need to control that trout to block Hamas's weaponry. 104 00:07:46.000 --> 00:07:50.560 We can coordinate with other parties. But you have some 105 00:07:50.639 --> 00:07:54.639 say that Benjamin Nataiello is actually using the Philadelphia corridor 106 00:07:54.759 --> 00:07:56.199 to block an agreement. 107 00:07:57.079 --> 00:07:59.839 Yeah, it's quite quite interesting, just for the benefit of 108 00:07:59.839 --> 00:08:03.920 the So the Philadelphia Kerdle, as Joyce mentioned, is is 109 00:08:04.319 --> 00:08:07.040 it's really on, you know, almost on their border with Egypt. 110 00:08:07.199 --> 00:08:11.600 It's the kind of the southern boundary of Gaza. And 111 00:08:12.040 --> 00:08:16.639 the question, of course, long running kind of question between 112 00:08:16.879 --> 00:08:22.519 Egypt and Israel has been on the tunnels. And so 113 00:08:23.079 --> 00:08:26.360 there was a school of thought within the Israeli military 114 00:08:27.120 --> 00:08:30.000 that you had to control the Philadelphia Curdle in order 115 00:08:30.040 --> 00:08:33.000 to control the tunnels. However, a couple of things, and 116 00:08:33.039 --> 00:08:35.799 I think this explains the shift within the military and 117 00:08:35.840 --> 00:08:39.320 why Gallant is saying other things, The Israelis realize that 118 00:08:39.399 --> 00:08:41.639 there are other ways that they can control those tunnels. 119 00:08:41.720 --> 00:08:45.039 In fact, possibly a third of the tunnels are not 120 00:08:45.120 --> 00:08:51.519 even you know, they're they're not even under Israeli control now. 121 00:08:51.879 --> 00:08:54.039 And yet there are other ways, you know, you find 122 00:08:54.039 --> 00:08:56.519 out where the entrances are et cetera, et cetera, number 123 00:08:56.559 --> 00:09:01.759 one and sitting on the Fidelphi Cradle Mikes number target 124 00:09:01.919 --> 00:09:05.039 that was kleave. You know, the chiefest staffs come to say, look, 125 00:09:05.039 --> 00:09:07.399 we're sitting here on ground, but the problem is underground. 126 00:09:07.399 --> 00:09:11.919 We have expertise technology to pursue the problem underground. Let's 127 00:09:11.960 --> 00:09:14.639 not sit here on ground and we're offending you know, 128 00:09:15.759 --> 00:09:17.879 the Egyptians. At the same time, there's all kinds of 129 00:09:17.879 --> 00:09:21.759 reasons not to. But thirdly, perhaps the strongest argument, this 130 00:09:21.799 --> 00:09:25.720 isn't coming from outside, it's coming from within the Israeli military. 131 00:09:25.919 --> 00:09:29.480 And that is almost one hundred percent of the munitions 132 00:09:29.519 --> 00:09:32.440 that they are finding now, have been finding in the 133 00:09:32.519 --> 00:09:35.960 last two months were manufactured in Gaza. They were not 134 00:09:36.080 --> 00:09:40.399 brought in from outside to include components, you know, components 135 00:09:40.440 --> 00:09:44.720 from So the point is that there are those within 136 00:09:44.799 --> 00:09:47.960 the US, within the Israelis right in military, who are 137 00:09:47.960 --> 00:09:51.799 claiming that Netnia, who is making the Philadelphia codle a 138 00:09:52.720 --> 00:09:57.000 blocking point when it should not be. So it is something, yeah. 139 00:09:56.840 --> 00:10:01.080 And that's something Bibe N'atanielle is very good at. I mean, 140 00:10:01.120 --> 00:10:05.399 this is a guy who is an expert at maneuvering 141 00:10:06.039 --> 00:10:09.159 US politics. He did it under Bill Clinton. He did 142 00:10:09.200 --> 00:10:14.519 it again under Barack Obama, under Trump even and now 143 00:10:15.360 --> 00:10:20.879 with the Biden administration. He understands how to pull the levers. 144 00:10:20.960 --> 00:10:24.080 He goes to Congress when when he's upset with the 145 00:10:24.120 --> 00:10:28.000 White House. He plays to the US public when he's 146 00:10:28.039 --> 00:10:30.360 when there's a message he wants to send out. We saw, 147 00:10:30.960 --> 00:10:34.679 you know, he gave an interview to Fox just recently, 148 00:10:34.799 --> 00:10:39.120 gave a press conference just to US media just in 149 00:10:39.159 --> 00:10:44.039 the last few days. So he's a very shrewd operator 150 00:10:44.279 --> 00:10:48.799 when it comes to addressing a Western audience and his 151 00:10:49.720 --> 00:10:53.320 ultimate game, and he's been successful at it. 152 00:10:53.399 --> 00:10:58.759 So stay as a as a reminder to pass some 153 00:10:58.799 --> 00:11:01.600 of the listeners and realize that Netna, who kind of 154 00:11:01.639 --> 00:11:04.840 cut his teeth in debate in the US telet on 155 00:11:04.919 --> 00:11:07.600 the TV circuit, you know, in the in the eighties, 156 00:11:08.480 --> 00:11:11.759 writing became quite a popular figure. I mean, he's articulate, 157 00:11:11.879 --> 00:11:16.279 he's uh, you know, he appears to be very bright 158 00:11:17.799 --> 00:11:21.039 and uh and and he appeared and obviously to have 159 00:11:21.039 --> 00:11:24.120 a grasp of the topic way beyond the American public. 160 00:11:24.159 --> 00:11:26.480 And so it appeared that he was explaining things that 161 00:11:26.519 --> 00:11:29.879 they didn't know while kind of presenting his view of 162 00:11:29.919 --> 00:11:30.360 the world. 163 00:11:31.200 --> 00:11:33.240 Absolutely. And I mean this is a guy, he's an 164 00:11:33.279 --> 00:11:36.320 a MIT graduate. You know, he spent time in Pennsylvania. 165 00:11:37.159 --> 00:11:40.759 And you don't have anybody from the other side. No, 166 00:11:41.120 --> 00:11:45.879 you don't have any not even Palestinian, any Arab official. 167 00:11:46.159 --> 00:11:48.360 That means, and that's what I was going to ask 168 00:11:48.399 --> 00:11:52.879 you about, Joyce. It's got to be supremely you know, 169 00:11:52.919 --> 00:11:55.159 I'm not talking about Hamas. I'm just talking about the 170 00:11:55.200 --> 00:12:02.159 Palestinian cause. Do you see anyone on the horizon at all? 171 00:12:02.360 --> 00:12:09.039 You know, a boss is uh, A boss has has lost. 172 00:12:09.559 --> 00:12:12.440 I think it's fair to say all credibility. You know, 173 00:12:12.559 --> 00:12:17.200 his people and Hermas has let them down this path. 174 00:12:17.320 --> 00:12:20.679 But there is no one who can who has the 175 00:12:20.759 --> 00:12:25.799 charisma and the smarts except for and you're can remind 176 00:12:25.799 --> 00:12:29.519 me of his name. He's in Israeli prison right now. 177 00:12:34.440 --> 00:12:38.879 Totally agreed, a boss. He's eighty seven years old. He's 178 00:12:39.039 --> 00:12:45.279 viewed as corrupt, He's viewed as just somebody who's who's 179 00:12:45.320 --> 00:12:49.000 not championing the Palestinian cause. Mind you, this is a 180 00:12:49.039 --> 00:12:53.919 guy that came to power after the Second Antifada saying 181 00:12:54.840 --> 00:12:58.600 we have to pursue peaceful resistance. 182 00:12:59.159 --> 00:13:02.519 We have to people wanted to be here at the time, but. 183 00:13:05.279 --> 00:13:09.559 Not for sure. So he's he he came with you know, 184 00:13:09.720 --> 00:13:13.039 us backing, he's close to Russia, and there were high 185 00:13:13.120 --> 00:13:16.759 hopes for him. But when it came to governance, when 186 00:13:16.759 --> 00:13:22.960 it came to establishing agreements, past agreements, implementing them with 187 00:13:23.120 --> 00:13:28.399 Israel was miserable failure for the Palestinian authority. That's now 188 00:13:28.840 --> 00:13:32.639 from all poles, seen as very unpopular, not just in 189 00:13:32.720 --> 00:13:37.679 Gaza but also in the West Bank. Marjuan Barruti, the 190 00:13:37.679 --> 00:13:43.240 the guy you mentioned, he's he's the most popular among 191 00:13:43.279 --> 00:13:47.279 the Palestinians, but there is very little chance that Israel 192 00:13:47.360 --> 00:13:52.720 would release him. He's charged with terrorism and is serving 193 00:13:53.840 --> 00:13:57.399 a jail sentence. You've had, of course, you know the 194 00:13:57.480 --> 00:14:01.600 former Hamas leader smile and he he was a little 195 00:14:01.639 --> 00:14:06.360 bit more popular than Yeah, yes, and we're the current leader. 196 00:14:06.399 --> 00:14:10.440 But he was killed, as we know in tron. 197 00:14:10.879 --> 00:14:16.960 That's you know, that's kind of ironic, isn't it. That 198 00:14:17.399 --> 00:14:21.360 we've talked about this that the path of targeted assassinations 199 00:14:21.399 --> 00:14:25.639 sometimes leads you to a worse often leads you to 200 00:14:25.799 --> 00:14:29.399 We've seen that in the United States, and so now 201 00:14:29.440 --> 00:14:33.480 we're left with nothing but extremists except for Marwan Barghuti, 202 00:14:33.919 --> 00:14:37.480 who is in jail. What is the Israeli's I get it, 203 00:14:37.480 --> 00:14:42.080 he's accused of terrorism, but so are they all. And 204 00:14:42.120 --> 00:14:45.879 in fact, the Israelis have released Palestinians with Israeli blood 205 00:14:45.919 --> 00:14:48.720 on their hands, so there is a precedent here. You know, 206 00:14:48.759 --> 00:14:53.159 I'm going back to the release of our prisoners. It 207 00:14:53.240 --> 00:14:58.240 seems now that this that this is maybe an arbitrary 208 00:14:58.279 --> 00:15:02.120 opposition to you see what I'm saying. Israelis have already 209 00:15:02.120 --> 00:15:07.120 been have They've already waived that concern about releasing Palestinians 210 00:15:07.120 --> 00:15:09.960 who killed Israelis. So now they have a chance to 211 00:15:10.000 --> 00:15:15.039 release someone at least who can provide more moderate leadership 212 00:15:15.240 --> 00:15:17.840 than Yaya Sema they have. 213 00:15:19.120 --> 00:15:24.679 But in this case particularly, I don't think they actually 214 00:15:24.879 --> 00:15:29.200 have a plan on what to do later. Their immediate 215 00:15:29.360 --> 00:15:33.320 plan is, you know, we're gonna drive full force in Gaza. 216 00:15:33.440 --> 00:15:37.919 It's been ten months. Hamas has not been completely defeated. 217 00:15:38.000 --> 00:15:40.519 So the only plan on the table is to just 218 00:15:41.600 --> 00:15:46.159 prolong the war. There is no day after plan. And 219 00:15:46.279 --> 00:15:50.000 who takes control. Will it be the Palaestinian authority, will 220 00:15:50.000 --> 00:15:54.399 it be a different offshoot of Hamas, will it be 221 00:15:54.480 --> 00:15:59.559 an Arab force that comes to Gaza. So, particularly because 222 00:15:59.600 --> 00:16:03.480 they don't have uh these plans in place, and they 223 00:16:03.480 --> 00:16:07.080 don't have they have not made these decisions, it's hard 224 00:16:07.200 --> 00:16:12.200 to see them making the political decision of releasing Marjuan 225 00:16:12.840 --> 00:16:20.399 Berruti because they would be just endermining the Palestinian authority's 226 00:16:20.480 --> 00:16:24.240 he's more popular than a bas and then they's just 227 00:16:25.200 --> 00:16:29.480 he would also be undermining hamas in in Gaza. So 228 00:16:30.039 --> 00:16:33.879 it's a little bit complicated at the moment in terms 229 00:16:33.879 --> 00:16:39.080 of seeing Berruti out. I think the more immediate projection is, 230 00:16:39.399 --> 00:16:41.840 you know, they're going to continue with this war until 231 00:16:41.879 --> 00:16:47.279 something happens within Israel or with the US election on 232 00:16:47.320 --> 00:16:48.000 November five. 233 00:16:49.600 --> 00:16:52.600 In the meantime, what is what are some of the 234 00:16:52.639 --> 00:16:55.519 things that are happening some of the train things that 235 00:16:55.559 --> 00:16:58.879 you're observing that you know causing you concern. You mentioned 236 00:17:00.000 --> 00:17:03.320 activity in the West Bank, but on both sides violence, 237 00:17:03.559 --> 00:17:05.599 you know, flaring violence on the on the West Bank 238 00:17:05.640 --> 00:17:08.359 that's kind of been I'm going to use a cliche, 239 00:17:08.599 --> 00:17:13.039 simmering powder cake since seven October. And now that that 240 00:17:13.599 --> 00:17:17.240 doesn't seem to be any prospect for a ceasefire, or 241 00:17:17.279 --> 00:17:19.400 if there is no prospect, do you see things getting 242 00:17:19.440 --> 00:17:20.079 worse there. 243 00:17:20.720 --> 00:17:25.640 They are getting worse. I mean, we've seen three US citizens, 244 00:17:26.200 --> 00:17:28.440 at least three US citizens have been killed in the 245 00:17:28.480 --> 00:17:33.920 West Bank since October seven by Israeli forces. We are 246 00:17:34.000 --> 00:17:40.440 seeing Israel launched in operation recently in the West Bank 247 00:17:40.599 --> 00:17:47.039 in the Genine Camp to uh just confront militants there. 248 00:17:47.200 --> 00:17:50.519 At the same time we're seeing hundreds of Palestinians have 249 00:17:50.559 --> 00:17:55.240 been killed. Another another issue that's a powder keg in 250 00:17:55.279 --> 00:17:59.799 the West Bank is settlers violence. Settlements, you know, for 251 00:17:59.839 --> 00:18:08.279 the who don't know, are illegal housing projects and units 252 00:18:09.240 --> 00:18:12.920 that Israel has established in the West Bank since nineteen 253 00:18:13.599 --> 00:18:19.240 sixty seven. It's illegal because it's an occupied territory. Just 254 00:18:19.400 --> 00:18:25.480 between and in between October seven and now, we've seen 255 00:18:27.359 --> 00:18:33.000 these settlers attacks go over twelve hundred by the numbers. 256 00:18:33.039 --> 00:18:36.240 I saw actually just a few days ago, twelve hundred 257 00:18:36.279 --> 00:18:41.119 attacks by settlers against the Palestinians. So you're seeing even 258 00:18:41.519 --> 00:18:46.440 between the settlers and the Palestinian population a higher degree 259 00:18:46.480 --> 00:18:51.759 of animosity. And within the West Bank there are more 260 00:18:51.839 --> 00:18:55.880 militant groups. There are people that are very upset what's 261 00:18:55.880 --> 00:19:00.359 happening in Gaza, so they're protesting. But you're seeing also 262 00:19:01.240 --> 00:19:05.160 like a group, for example, its name is the Lions. Then, uh, 263 00:19:05.480 --> 00:19:10.000 that's a fairly new group and they've they're expanding Hamas 264 00:19:10.079 --> 00:19:14.119 is gaining popularity in the West Bank as well. So 265 00:19:14.200 --> 00:19:17.240 can Israel handle a war in Gaza and an eruption 266 00:19:17.759 --> 00:19:23.359 in the West Bank. It's getting much more complicated to 267 00:19:23.599 --> 00:19:28.559 Israel to the status agreements that were signed in Oslo 268 00:19:28.799 --> 00:19:32.359 and later on in the West Bank. So it's an 269 00:19:32.359 --> 00:19:35.359 important issue to monitor and to see how the Palestinian 270 00:19:35.400 --> 00:19:38.079 authority as well can navigate this one. 271 00:19:38.839 --> 00:19:46.759 Are we seeing Israeli's move into so in two areas 272 00:19:46.799 --> 00:19:49.720 that formerly were not administered by them within the West Bank? 273 00:19:50.319 --> 00:19:53.759 You know, I mean categories of areas in other ways. 274 00:19:53.880 --> 00:19:59.039 I'm sorry, Yes, So you're seeing more rates happening at 275 00:19:59.200 --> 00:20:04.039 night in Ablos and Janine, as I mentioned, And these 276 00:20:04.079 --> 00:20:10.440 are areas that we've seen more Palestinian autonomy around them 277 00:20:11.079 --> 00:20:14.480 after Oslo. But because of the situation, because where the 278 00:20:14.480 --> 00:20:19.319 Palestinian authority is today, you're seeing Israel just move more 279 00:20:19.319 --> 00:20:25.640 aggressively within the West Bank. For you know, for me 280 00:20:25.720 --> 00:20:29.839 sitting here in Washington, I can tell you the Administration, 281 00:20:30.039 --> 00:20:33.559 the State Department, the White House, they're worried if the 282 00:20:33.599 --> 00:20:38.880 Palestinian authority can actually handle the situation in the West Bank. 283 00:20:39.079 --> 00:20:43.039 They're worried that a collapse of the Palestinian authority could 284 00:20:43.119 --> 00:20:46.440 also mean a collapse of the security situation from the 285 00:20:46.480 --> 00:20:48.559 Palestinian side in the West Bank. 286 00:20:49.400 --> 00:20:53.759 Yeah, just so very quickly, so after Oslow, all of 287 00:20:53.759 --> 00:20:57.720 the territory that had been captured by Israel in nineteen 288 00:20:57.759 --> 00:21:01.759 sixty seven became subject two kind of the three categories. 289 00:21:01.839 --> 00:21:06.240 It's either security and administration provided by the Israelis. I 290 00:21:06.279 --> 00:21:09.559 think that's kind of whatever. It's like ABC, right, So 291 00:21:09.680 --> 00:21:15.359 either by security administration or B the Israelis provides security, 292 00:21:15.359 --> 00:21:20.799 the Palestinians provide administration, or see the Palestinians provide security administration. 293 00:21:21.400 --> 00:21:25.079 And the concern from the US perspective is that you 294 00:21:25.119 --> 00:21:28.480 were seeing more of the Israeli you know, of the 295 00:21:28.519 --> 00:21:35.359 Israelis going into B and C areas on on these rates. 296 00:21:35.440 --> 00:21:39.880 The areas A are those areas about the facto, you know, 297 00:21:39.920 --> 00:21:43.200 it's where settlements have sprung up and it's only Israelis. 298 00:21:44.599 --> 00:21:47.759 But but you know, as as Joyce has said, even settlement, 299 00:21:47.839 --> 00:21:51.279 you know, the area as are technically illegal, but they're 300 00:21:51.400 --> 00:21:55.319 just the fat of complee. So the Oslo Accords, I mean. 301 00:21:55.480 --> 00:22:02.200 We're we're now three decades after Arsenal. Oh, it's it's 302 00:22:02.240 --> 00:22:04.960 hard to see what's left from that agreement that that 303 00:22:05.160 --> 00:22:10.039 stands today. It's you know, the areas you've mentioned, the A, 304 00:22:10.200 --> 00:22:14.000 B and C are very much just that that status 305 00:22:14.119 --> 00:22:20.680 is no longer there, in part because militants have emerged, 306 00:22:20.799 --> 00:22:24.279 new militants organizations have emerged in the West Bank. Israel 307 00:22:24.319 --> 00:22:27.960 has moved in more aggressively, and the area A that 308 00:22:28.039 --> 00:22:32.079 you mentioned where the settlers are, we're seeing more clashes. 309 00:22:32.200 --> 00:22:37.079 These are coming sometimes into Palestinian areas, and there has 310 00:22:37.160 --> 00:22:43.079 been a push since October seven to get the Palaestinian 311 00:22:43.200 --> 00:22:47.519 population out of areas that are close to settlements. So 312 00:22:47.839 --> 00:22:54.839 we've seen some Palestinian you know, locals leave because of 313 00:22:55.039 --> 00:23:01.160 the they're worried about settlers, settlers, violence and tach and 314 00:23:01.200 --> 00:23:06.480 this very much undercovered. I think few outlets did report THEMSNBC, 315 00:23:07.000 --> 00:23:11.720 CNN did reports about that. So it's really untenable when 316 00:23:11.720 --> 00:23:15.880 you're talking about the Palestinian is really status quol and 317 00:23:15.880 --> 00:23:18.559 andy here. I think it's really important because we forget 318 00:23:18.640 --> 00:23:22.799 sometimes that we haven't seen negotiations between Israelis and the 319 00:23:22.839 --> 00:23:29.039 Palestinians since twenty thirteen. And that's a major reason that 320 00:23:29.079 --> 00:23:33.839 we cannot overlook and how we got here. The Trump 321 00:23:33.920 --> 00:23:38.039 administration was the first administration in a long time that 322 00:23:38.200 --> 00:23:43.680 did not have the Israelis and the Palestinians talk and 323 00:23:43.799 --> 00:23:48.559 negotiate around the same table. The Biden administration tried to 324 00:23:48.599 --> 00:23:53.519 reverse some of the Trump administration decisions, but we still 325 00:23:53.559 --> 00:23:58.960 didn't see negotiations and the failure of diplomacy. That's why 326 00:23:59.000 --> 00:24:01.759 we are where we are to It's not just because 327 00:24:02.799 --> 00:24:07.240 you know, Hamas controls Gaza, of course that's another reason, 328 00:24:07.319 --> 00:24:09.160 but but yeah, failure. 329 00:24:09.400 --> 00:24:16.839 There was no negotiation outlet, and arguably the US kind 330 00:24:16.839 --> 00:24:20.200 of lost its way in negotiation stance. So it had 331 00:24:20.200 --> 00:24:23.759 always been the US stance for a two state solution, 332 00:24:25.519 --> 00:24:29.640 and that, you know, and to begin with that and 333 00:24:29.680 --> 00:24:36.000 then to sort out the more tangled problems. The settlements 334 00:24:36.279 --> 00:24:41.440 is one, the right of return for Palestinian refugees potentially 335 00:24:41.640 --> 00:24:48.079 is another. But now it appears that the two state 336 00:24:48.200 --> 00:24:52.559 solution is just hard. It's hard to imagine getting that 337 00:24:52.680 --> 00:24:55.599 from here, two states living side by side. 338 00:24:55.480 --> 00:24:59.960 You know, it looks like amy Raj I mean, honestly, 339 00:25:00.079 --> 00:25:02.799 if you look at that map, how do you even 340 00:25:02.839 --> 00:25:07.319 connect those banks to Gazana, let alone, how do you 341 00:25:07.400 --> 00:25:10.720 even connect the West Bank within itself. And then we 342 00:25:10.799 --> 00:25:14.599 have Jerusalem is another issue. We have the Jordan River. 343 00:25:15.200 --> 00:25:19.759 This Israel wants control there. So it's it's we are 344 00:25:19.799 --> 00:25:22.400 in a really bad place in this in this conflict. 345 00:25:22.480 --> 00:25:26.160 And I don't say, uh, this lightly and there is 346 00:25:28.480 --> 00:25:33.720 I hope we can get to reassess. But the uh, 347 00:25:34.000 --> 00:25:39.279 the assumption that you could you know, overlook the Palestinian 348 00:25:39.359 --> 00:25:42.720 is really conflict and just focus on outside agreements that 349 00:25:42.839 --> 00:25:48.400 has that has you know, fell flat on on October seven. 350 00:25:48.839 --> 00:25:52.400 Of course you can get an agreement with bahin with 351 00:25:52.480 --> 00:25:56.359 the United Arab Emirates normalization, but unless you address the 352 00:25:56.400 --> 00:26:00.839 elephant in the room that has been for a years now, 353 00:26:01.039 --> 00:26:06.359 the Palestinian is really conflict. There is no stability, long 354 00:26:06.440 --> 00:26:09.920 term stability in the in the Middle East. You're seeing 355 00:26:10.000 --> 00:26:18.599 the Pentagon overstretched, sending aircraft, aircraft carriers, you know, reinforcing 356 00:26:18.640 --> 00:26:20.519 its presence in the Middle East. 357 00:26:20.440 --> 00:26:22.880 At the expense of the Pacific It's expenses. 358 00:26:26.039 --> 00:26:30.359 Then that's that's unsustainable. I mean, this is just not 359 00:26:30.519 --> 00:26:35.079 a good situation. The alternative would have been a more 360 00:26:35.079 --> 00:26:40.400 aggressive diplomatic push from the Obama administration going to the 361 00:26:40.440 --> 00:26:44.559 Trump administration and maybe, you know, we can dream that 362 00:26:44.599 --> 00:26:48.880 it would have been concluded in an agreement during the 363 00:26:48.880 --> 00:26:53.039 the Biden administration. That didn't happen. Instead, we saw these 364 00:26:53.119 --> 00:26:57.039 elements of conflict spiral out of control. And that's why 365 00:26:57.079 --> 00:26:58.759 we are here today and in. 366 00:26:58.839 --> 00:27:03.880 Fantas defendants to the US too. Although you know, we 367 00:27:04.200 --> 00:27:07.559 normally we don't shy away from criticism. Arguably with the 368 00:27:07.640 --> 00:27:11.000 death of Jitzapara being the kind of the anchor point 369 00:27:11.039 --> 00:27:15.079 for the piece, you know, for the conciliatory movement disappeared 370 00:27:15.160 --> 00:27:18.599 within Israel. You know, it took a while to become evident, 371 00:27:20.079 --> 00:27:23.279 and it was a process that began, you know, back 372 00:27:23.319 --> 00:27:28.680 then and what was it nineteen ninety five or not, Yes, 373 00:27:29.319 --> 00:27:33.200 and arguably just and seven October kind of completed that 374 00:27:33.240 --> 00:27:35.279 process of absolute polarization. 375 00:27:37.640 --> 00:27:40.960 That's one way to look at it. And the closest 376 00:27:41.000 --> 00:27:44.880 we've come to a deal was perhaps Camp David too 377 00:27:45.200 --> 00:27:50.759 in nineteen nineteen nine, two thousand with Bill Clinton at 378 00:27:50.759 --> 00:27:54.559 the time. Here he actually ran out of time. He 379 00:27:54.599 --> 00:27:59.960 couldn't conclude the agreement the Palestinians were divided among themsel 380 00:28:00.039 --> 00:28:03.680 else within within Fata, and Adapat said at the time, 381 00:28:03.720 --> 00:28:06.079 you know, he couldn't get the concessions he wanted on 382 00:28:06.160 --> 00:28:11.240 Jerusalem and the right of return. But after the two 383 00:28:11.240 --> 00:28:14.880 thousand Talks, it's just been Andy just Downhill. 384 00:28:15.279 --> 00:28:18.440 Saw the sorry Jerusalem is the other the right of 385 00:28:18.480 --> 00:28:26.559 return Jerusalem. We're two of these settlements. Settlements, yeah, security, 386 00:28:26.599 --> 00:28:29.279 and we haven't even got to there. It's like now 387 00:28:29.839 --> 00:28:32.960 for the Gaza piece, the real issue is what happens 388 00:28:33.000 --> 00:28:37.079 next within Gaza, and and that isn't even that isn't 389 00:28:37.079 --> 00:28:45.119 even up for discussion. Gosh So painted a extremely gloomy 390 00:28:45.119 --> 00:28:49.799 picture facts on the ground. So we haven't even talked 391 00:28:49.799 --> 00:28:53.319 about the North Joyce. What are your thoughts about that. 392 00:28:53.359 --> 00:28:55.559 We talked about problems simmering on the West Bank in 393 00:28:55.559 --> 00:28:59.640 a way that perhaps they haven't previously. We've talked about 394 00:28:59.759 --> 00:29:03.519 the instn Right. It's a affiliated group. 395 00:29:03.799 --> 00:29:09.839 They claim to be just their own Palestinian. 396 00:29:09.400 --> 00:29:14.400 Military have tremendous support on the rest they seem to have. 397 00:29:14.680 --> 00:29:18.880 They have support, they've been they've claimed responsibility for more 398 00:29:18.920 --> 00:29:22.079 attacks and and before October seven, even in the last 399 00:29:22.200 --> 00:29:26.880 year and a half and just uh. This situation just 400 00:29:27.079 --> 00:29:31.359 makes it for these groups to to get popularity because 401 00:29:31.359 --> 00:29:36.319