Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. Its Wednesday morning. It's time for
total bases.
Speaker 2: We got day games today, boys, so we've got to
get right into it full slate. I love Wednesdays. I
love day games. Every day should have a day game.
But I need another show to I could do an
hour on why there should be at least one day
game in Major League Baseball every day. It's good for
the sport. But anyway, we got him today, So welcome
in to all you guys in the chat. Appreciate you
showing up every day. We got Tokyo Brand and Brian Leonard,
and I'm gonna get right into it. We're talking Reds Dodgers.
That's gonna be our feature game today. We've got show
hey O Tommy on the mound for as long as
I guess he's gonna go. And then we've got Nick
Martinez for the Reds, Brian Leonard the Reds. I felt
like they had that one last night. I did a
free play video. I gave Reds plus one and a
half out, so that got there, but I was shocked
that they couldn't get to the finish line with that
four to two win. Felt like they had the bullpen
edge back today. What'd you see last night? And are
you getting involved with Red's Dodgers.
Speaker 3: I had the Reds in the first five yesterday, so
that worked out well. I was concerned about the bullpen,
and that's the major concern here. Melia Pagan's gone four
to the five centillion, four of the five Burlough back
to back Ashcraft through twenty seven pitches, and their closer
has been a guy that they've kind of overworked, and
it showed yesterday a little bit. So I'll put that
on Terry Fredcona. It was a game that Cincinnati should
have won, but the Dodgers are a veteran team that
knows how to win and they were able to come
back and get that victory. But it was good for
me and my clients, but not good for Cincinnati Reds fans.
We've got Otani's basically probably about a one sixty five favorite.
There's a lot of variance right now. It's early in
the morning, obviously, and Martinez going for Cincinnati, a guy
that we like. He's been very up and down, but
Fling that is nine. I don't have a lot of
information from the pitching standpoint on Otani because for some reason,
this tech cast doesn't have his stats up for pitchers,
so I'm gonna have to go blind on that, but
we will go with Nick Martinez. A lot of info
on Nick four point six' nine era four point oh
seven expected one point two two. Whip last two seasons
HIS era was three point one and three point four to.
Three he did pitch mostly out of the bullpen in
those two, games so that's what or excuse, me those two,
seasons which is why those numbers are. Better you should
be better in the bullpen because you can lay it
all out in a short time as opposed to expanding
your starts and going. Longer but he's already reached basically
what his average was for the last two. Years and
then his pitch he's at one twenty. One but he's
a guy THAT i. Like his walk great last year
was amazing at three point, two but it's still going
to a starter. Now he's still very good five point.
Eight his strikeout rate has obviously gone down the last
few years is a relief twenty three twenty point. Four
this year's down to seventeen point, two which you can,
understand which gives him about eleven point four strikeout mind
just walk not really what we're looking. For his best
at the walk, rate hard hit, rate and barrel, rate
which is pretty, good but you can't get many. Chases
he's in the eleventh percentile a fifth, percent, twelfth strikeout percent,
Fifteenth so when he's on, there when the ball gets,
hit mostly bad things. HAPPEN i was checking out the
leaderboard on fad racks for the last. Month i'm just
checking out these two. Teams cincinnati comes. In they'ren't twenty
first IN wrc plus at ninety, Five but what really
got to me was isolated. Power and isolated power is
basically your pole. Power teams that are very good at
hitting home runs are the teams that have the great pole,
power but two of the. Worst in, fact of the
two worst is Been cincinnati And. Houston Now, houston you
can understand that because they're missing their big bats and
obviously their third, baseman who is a major poll, hitter
has been. Hurt so they're worse than Major League baseball right.
Now and it's showed in THEIR wrc plus of eighty
five despite having a THREE zho One, babbitt which is
higher to leak. Average The cincinnati lack of power is.
Concerning they play in a ballpark that is a great
home run, ballpark but they're not pulling the. Ball that
is something you have to consider because in this, ballpark
if you can hit home, runs you're gonna. Lose and
so The cincinnati club is somebody right now that it
has some concerns. ABOUT i prefer The dodger side in this.
One but to be totally honest with, you when a
team has a lead and blows it late and loses
to being that gives an additional motivation the following. Day
that's a, Situation cincinnati situation right. Now so it's enough
to keep me from getting involved in this.
Speaker 4: Game the big question, HERE i think is going to
be how many innings Is otany going to?
Speaker 1: Pitch.
Speaker 4: Now i've heard like rumblings here and there that they're
actually going to let him start going five, innings BUT
i don't know if that's going to be this game or.
Not his last four starts he went TWO inny two,
inning then he went THREE inny three. Inning so is
this where they bump him up to four or are
they going to actually give him a chance to record
a win in this? Game not really. Sure otani has great,
numbers but very limited, actions so you can't really put
a lot of credence into. That Nick, Martinez, no his
walk grade is a little bit up. There dodgers' bullpen
performing terribly right, now but their hitting is starting to
catch out.
Speaker 1: Now The, dodgers.
Speaker 4: They had been missing production From betts And, freeman and
both of those guys are starting to heat up. Now
so watch out because if those two guys are starting to,
hit and then you got Like pahes in the, Back
edmund's starting to heat, up and you got those secondary
guys who've been carrying the team for a week or.
So now those, guys you don't need to depend on them,
anymore and whatever you get from them is frosting on the.
CAKE i think The dodgers are going to start to
put up runs in bunches, Now SO i would go
with The dodgers team total. Here PERHAPS i haven't done it,
yet but if, ANYTHING i would either do a game
over or The dodgers team total over.
Speaker 2: Here, Yeah brian mentioned The reds bullpen being a little
bit taxed and used. Up got a great stat for you,
Guys not really a, stat it's more of a just
SOMETHING i noticed WHEN i was looking at this game
the last couple of. Days The dodgers after last night
have now played sixteen straight games decided by three runs or.
Speaker 1: Less The. Dodgers that's shocking to.
Speaker 2: ME i would not have ever guessed, that because this
is a team that we are so accustomed, to just
like every once in a while steamrolling a. Team AND
i think everyone sort of has The dodgers as this like,
big powerful team that's gonna win, big and you know
that's what they're supposed to.
Speaker 1: Be really, like that's what this team is supposed to.
Speaker 2: Be and they've played sixteen games consecutive decided by three
runs are.
Speaker 1: Less of, course last night again five fur they score.
Speaker 2: Late SO i look at this and, like maybe The
dodgers didn't have the bullpen usage at the red cted,
yesterday BUT i think you certainly have to like their
their pen collectively certainly has to be just as fatigue
if they are in every single day they're in a
three run, game two run, game and the thing is
they're winning a good amount of, these so it's, like
you know those those two run, wins three run, wins
one run, win as those pile, up that really taxes a.
Bullpen so If i'm gonna work backwards, Here i've got
to like the over BECAUSE i do think that there's
probably runs at the end of this game if that's the.
Case and Then Tokyo brandon made a great. Point we
don't know how Long otani's gonna. Go my guess is
it's more about how economically is at this, Point LIKE
i don't think they're really looking at innings as much
as it's, like you, know if his pitch counts, down
maybe they let him go.
Speaker 1: Five otherwise it might be. Four otherwise it might be.
Speaker 2: Three but, like you, know let's call it what you,
know just looking at what he's, done is it gonna
be more than? Four probably, not it's probably, Right probably
a good assessment of where he's gonna. Be so you
got you got to think you're gonna get at least
five innings here from The dodgers'.
Speaker 1: Bullpen how how deep Is Nick martinez gonna?
Speaker 2: Go? Right like he's been shaky And colin in The
chatz As dodgers will Smash martinez today can't really argue with.
Speaker 1: That it's very.
Speaker 2: Possible so the total being nine and a half is
annoying because nine and a half is kind of that
number that baits you a little. Bit we all like
the flat, nine, right because four or four gets you.
THERE i actually make this total ten and a. Half
so IF i had to play this, GAME i think
it would be the. Over and then IF i absolutely
had to play a, SIDE i THINK i would run
it back with reds plus one and a. Half that's
kind of WHAT i. Did that's kind of WHAT i
did in the free pick video. Yesterday it got, there
so that would be just the lesser of two evils
for me minus one fifteen or. Whatever BUT i think
the best play here would be runs go.
Speaker 1: Ahead Bran.
Speaker 3: Yeah in regards to The dodgers', Bullpen ivessly has pitched
back to back the last two, days but only throwing
twenty eight. Pitches he may be. Available dryers pitched three straight,
games but he's thrown a total of twenty one pitches
in those three. Games that probably still getting the day,
off but most of the other guys will be. Available
dustin may came in the other day and through seventy
seven he won't be, available but everybody else should be
available for an ending or. So what makes The dodgers
a little bit different than a lot of. Teams is
they really now With scott, out they really don't have
a designated, closer so they could do a lot of good.
Matchups is the game goes, on and, YEAH i think
they're in pretty good shape for the bullpen. Game now
there's other, game other teams they're going bullpen games we'll
talk about today THAT i think are going to really.
Struggle but we'll get to those as we go.
Speaker 2: On Russell deck Says DraftKings Got dodgers team total over
five and a half even? Money, well if over five
and a half is even, money if you can get
over four and a half and it's not horrific, JUICE
i could see. That you're getting a visiting, team so
that's a. Plus you're getting The reds bullpen that's, tired
so that's a. Plus Nick, martinez who hasn't been that,
great you, know The dodgers lineup should certainly be able
to get. Something So russell can't really put you off
that that is A i think that that's a fine
bet if that's a bet that you want to, make all,
Right Wolf GAMING, Tv he, Says, adam why did you
pick The?
Speaker 1: Rockies plus?
Speaker 2: One and a half yesterday they got, him absolutely. Did
and that's that is the that is what you're gonna.
Like that's the conundrum with some of these. Teams rockies
might be the best. Example you have a team that's
probably better than what they were earlier in the, year
that's gonna show value against the number almost every. Day
but they are still a young team and they're still
just not a great baseball. Team so picking your spots
with a team like The rockies is. Paramount and that's you,
KNOW i didn't make it a client, play and it's
IT'S i used it in the parlor BECAUSE i thought
it was. Value but, like that is going to be
the tough thing with a team like The. Rockies and
you're gonna see a couple of these teams emerge over
the next week or two as teams really get.
Speaker 1: Active what do we get two days left in the trade.
Speaker 2: Market you're gonna see some teams get active where suddenly
they're gonna dump players and then they're gonna be in
the same.
Speaker 1: Boat So i'm gonna go To Brian.
Speaker 2: Leonard this is His Cleveland, guardians who got off the
mat yesterday with a nice.
Speaker 1: Win how are you seeing this.
Speaker 2: One do you have any interest in going with The
rockies today or are they a team that you're gonna
have a hard time touching because you just never know
what you're going to.
Speaker 3: Get, well you've got to realize when The rockies fall
behind and they got to make a, move they're not
going to bring in their better. Relievers, now, great they
don't have all star type relievers on this, team but
they're back end the guys that come in long relief
that those guys are not very. Good just you figure
you got the worst team in, baseball and if if
the last guys in the bullpen are not going to
be very. Good and they pitched yesterday forty For, chavelli
fifteen For, hill forty three For, hrget but none of
the top four relievers on the Team, Halverson, Kenley, vodnik
And bird pitched. Yesterday now they did pitch the day
before when they got that. Victory so a lot of
it depends on how the game goes. On so that's
why you get a lot Of rockies games and for that,
month that, part you, Know White sox, games some of
their are lesser, teams The a's that sometimes they just
get blown out and because they just don't have enough
depth in the in the relief, pitching and that's always
a concern. There we're looking at two lefties, Here freeland And.
Alard alex pitch pretty well For. Cleveland it's a bull
bullpen game For cleveland, here which is somewhat of a.
Concern let's take a look at The cleveland bullpen over
the last few days. Here they did get hit pretty
hard a couple of days, ago but you, know they're
pretty good. Shape nobody's gone back to back except For Tim,
herron who was fresh off a TRIPLE a and he
hasn't really looked that good so. Far but other than,
that everybody should be available in The cleveland. Bullpen two
lefties going, Today freeland And. Alard we're looking at the
total Of cleveland about one to eighty right, now maybe
one eighty five and a total of. Eight cleveland doesn't
hit lefties very. Well colorado doesn't hit lefties very. Well
it is getaway, day but it is an afternoon. Game
is a host to a lot of these games that
are being played. Earlier So cleveland has been one of
those teams for me THAT i don't think they're very
good and they're not making any moves during the, break
as far AS i, know They've they've had they've talked
About kwan and some, others but they. CAN'T i just.
Can't they're gonna have to be blown away to get
rid Of. Kwan he's the second best player on the.
Team Shane bieber Pitching akron last. Night he looked good,
again so he will likely be. Traded but this is
a this is a dead year For, cleveland and this
is a club who's used to be fighting for the,
Playoffs SO i could See cleveland struggling in the second
half of the. Season but then, Again colorado on the
road has never been very good this. Year don't know
If i'll get there with. Him part of me thinks
it will be a lower scoring game because people are
because they're just looking to get out of, here Especially.
Colorado so we'll see how it. Goes But i'll be
passing on.
Speaker 4: This The rockies are a bad, team but they're hitting
really well right, now and so are The. Guardians, Actually
i've got both of these teams ranked over eleven out
of thirty, teams and neither bullpens performing really, well so
that would lead me to think over in this, one
BUT i don't have a good read On. ALARD i
do have a good read On, freeland, though and he
ranks really. LOW i used to think he's their best
picture in their, rotation but he might. Be, actually if you,
look they were starting A Dole anger and some other Guy,
sanzatela and compared to those, guys he might be the
best one in their. Rotation but he's not very. Good
and if, ANYTHING i would do either team total over
or the game, over but haven't really done it.
Speaker 1: Yet BECAUSE i.
Speaker 4: Don't have a real good read On, Alard i'll probably
stay off of. This i'd love to Take, cleveland but
the fact That colorado's hitting so well kind of scares me.
Speaker 3: Off.
Speaker 2: It TO broni, listen The rockies are literally the definition of.
Value i'll explain what that term gets thrown around too,
much but this is like cut and. Dry not only
do they show line, value but they're six and five
since The All Star, break and they've been an underdog
in every single. Game so if you just bet The
rockies every day since the, break you're doing quite good
right now because they've Been i'm not talking about betting
against the. SPREAD i mean if you just Taken rockies
money line every day since The All star. Break you're
doing just fine because they've been an underdog every single
game and they're six and. Five so that is literally
the definition of value right. There the other thing, is
AND i think it Was Steve Steve duke maybe or
the chat scrolled too, quickly who's lining up to lay
two dollars with The guardians right? NOW i think that's
really What WHEN i look at this, SERIES i really
see two.
Speaker 1: Teams that are that are not that far off from each.
Speaker 2: Other AND i know it like seems, like you, know
the the win loss records, are there's a huge disparity
in the, Record But i'm talking about right, now taking
into account what The guardians have gone, through losing a
couple of pitchers and having that all go, on taking
into account the fact that The rockies have called some guys,
up they're playing a little bit better ball right. NOW
i don't think there's a huge difference between these two.
Teams and if you're going to continue to give me
plus money or playable plus one and a half, numbers
Then i'm gonna have to continue to look at that
to be a viable option to make a bet. On
so you know in this case Like, Alard, yeah HE'S i,
mean he's not SOMEONE i would bet. On it's probably
more of like a bullpen game type. Situation As brian, Said, Tokyo,
brandon you Said, freeland you know he's not he's not,
great but he's still a. Veteran, like he's still someone
THAT i, think on a given day can go give
you five and five or six innings and keep you
in a.
Speaker 1: Game So i'll go back to What brian, said like low.
Speaker 2: Scoring, game maybe like getaway day, type sleepy type.
Speaker 1: GAME i like the run in that.
Speaker 2: Situation So i'm right back On rockies plus one and
a half.
Speaker 1: HERE i don't know If i'll use it in the.
Speaker 2: Parlay jump in the comments and let me know how
pissed off you'll be IF i use it in the,
parlay And i'll think.
Speaker 1: About it for the next thirty. Minutes go, Ahead, Brian,
YEAH i just want.
Speaker 3: To touch on a couple of things That brandon, said
and he's. Correct, Yeah cleveland And colorado hitting pretty, well
But colorado's got over the last month of one oh
SIX wrc Plus cleveland's got a one twenty. Six but
when you look at the. Babbis cleveland's at one, Thirteen
colorado's excuse, Me cleveland's at three, Thirteen colorado's at three.
Nineteen league average is about two. Ninety so they've been
getting a little bit. Lucky but what the Point i'm
trying to make here is look at what the teams
That cleveland has played during this streak where they're supposedly hitting.
WELL i look at these pitching, staffs The Colorado, Rockies
Kansas royals without their ace who's. Hurt The Baltimore orioles
and we've seen The oriols terrible pitching staff all season.
Long The athletics And Chicago White. Sox they are playing
some of the worst pitching in, baseball and that is
why they're hitting right. Now this is still not a
good hitting. Team and AS i you, KNOW i said
all the, time they've only got two major league hitters
on this team and they're thinking about trading one of.
THEM i don't want to Play cleveland. OVER i think
they're just taking advantage of a lot of bad.
Speaker 2: Pitching good points right. There, yeah let's let's move. On
i'm not Gonna i'm not gonna pick that. Yet although
that is Something i'm considering. Again to, me like to
play that though for me like that's on my short
list for. Today i'm gonna have to see how the
market plays that because it's still a little bit inflated
for WHERE i would want the plus one and a.
Half but we'll see how it. Goes it's it's definitely
One i'm. Thinking ocho, says Blue jays smoked. Me, yeah
smoked me esterday. TOO i went on to And Major
League baseball yesterday and both my losses were The Blue,
Jays Blue Jay's game, One Blue Jay's game. TWO i
took a position on The Blue Jays i'm sorry base
basically against The, orioles thinking that they wouldn't beat two
left handed starters in a, day especially when the second
one Was Eric lauer and the Way David, schneider the
Way schneider managed that first, game he basically waved their
white flag after in a four to three game in
the sixth, inning which was puzzling to. Me but then
he had all his, good good relief arms and they
couldn't score Off Brandon. YOUNG i believe The Blue jays
Yesterday Brian leonard went something like one for twenty one
with runners in scoring position in the in the, doubleheader
it was.
Speaker 1: BAD i don't remember what it.
Speaker 2: Was Boba schet swung at a ball at his eyes
to end the game with second and. Third like it
was just it was just a bad day of baseball
from The Blue, jays and in really a double header
that couldn't have been more on a platter for. Them Charlie,
Morton Brandon. Young Brandon young was supposed to be at
a ball working stuff. Out he was actually sent To
aberdeen to like work on, mechanics and they then they
grabbed him as the twenty seventh man because they needed
a guy for the. Doubleheader and he came out and
he looked Like Sandy. KOFAX i, mean it was just
it was ridiculous. Stuff So Brian, leonard now these guys
turn around and play at noon, today how like can The?
Blake do you have any faith in The Blue jays
or do they look cooked right?
Speaker 3: Now, Well Barry Elson kramer, Here kramer's been a guy
who lately has pitched a lot better than he has
earlier in the. Season we're looking at total maybe you
Know baltimore one ten favorite total of ten here too
slightly to the. Under, uh, YEAH i was with. YOU
i went two in one, yesterday but my first play
was The baltimore team total, under and needless to, say
that one was. Ugly SO i got the ugly out
of the way. Early thankfully it was only one and
a half percent. Play but, yeah they Didn't they did
not look. Good the opener For toronto could not find
the play it. Was it was just an ugly day For.
Toronto and if you. LOOK i mentioned the leaderboards over
the last, month they're still leading baseball IN wrc plus
at one thirty, nine but their isolated powers are one seventy.
Eight it's the babbit that's been carrying. Them, uh they
along With San. Diego San diego's got a three thirty
seven babbit and they In toronto has a three thirty.
Eight so the babbit yesterday caught up to, him and
they caught up to him in a. Hurry they did
not hate with the runners of scoring. Position it was
just an ugly game For toronto and they did it
against The baltimore pitching staff who hasn't shut down anybody
all year. Long so, uh to, me that's a sign
saying That toronto has. Peaked and now we've got to
look for reasons to play against, them and because they've
done so, well we're going to get some pretty good
numbers going against them in the next few. Days is,
HERE i believe we're looking At burios going For. Toronto
he's a three point eight one excuse, me three point
eight THREE era four point five seven expected one point
twenty five. Whip he's a guy AND i mentioned this,
before for the most, part every year in his last you,
know five or six, years he's outperformed he's EXPECTED. Era
that's just part of what he. Does he's able to
get people. Out but it's still an ugly. Profile when
you're looking at the Stack gass, page there's no. Red
they either had red for, good blue for, bad and
everything is. BLUE i have lost a lot of money
going Against burrios over the years because of his numbers
similar to. This but you're going to find some outliers
all the time when you're looking at the stats like,
this and he's a guy That i'm dumbfounded WHEN i
play on him against, HIM i don't have a lot of,
success so chances ARE i won't be involved with this
one granmar four point two THREE era three point nine
to four expected one point twenty five. Whip he's really.
Good it hard to hit percentage eighty fourth, percentile walk
great seventy, ninth averageexsvelasses seventy. Six but he's not gonna
get you a lot of strikeouts thirty through thirty second
percent hele strikeouts eighteenth and whiff extension only the twenty.
Third he's six ft two and yet he doesn't have much.
Extension his strikeout minds walk ratio is thirteen point three
less than what we. Want SO i would normally take
a look at this and look to play the over
BUT i won't hear because it is an early early
get getaway game goes off at like twelve thirty Five,
eastern coming off that. Doubleheader, yeah you would find you
would normally find the bullpens a little bit worn. Out
BUT i don't know IF i want about the over,
Here i'm gonna pass.
Speaker 4: Guys do us all a favor and go To waija
talk dot com and check our pages out because we
put three plays up almost every, day AND i have
MY mlb play out already for, today so go check.
IT i have my picture projections downloadable for free as,
well so check that. Out take five seconds comment on
the replay as. Well WHEN i cap, GAMES i like
to look at stats that kind of pop, out and
one stat WHEN i went over this game that really
pops out is how bad these batters just cracked the
hell out Of. Barrios His his stats against these batters are,
atrocious AND i have him ranked twenty five out of
thirty on a curve of thirty out of all. Pitchers
SO i can see The orioles just jumping all over
him in this. Game he's got a three oh nine average.
Against he's got almost one hundred more than one hundred
at bats. AGAINST i THINK i don't have the number
in front of, me BUT i remember it was one
hundred something three oh nine average against in a nine
to ten. Ops, again just hammer the crap out of. Him,
so if, Anything i'd like to do A baltimore team
total over but four and a. Half it's tough to
play a four and a half over because they got
to score five, runs and that's you, know you gotta.
Score you gotta be on a pace of one run
every two, innings and that's a heck of a pace
to keep up. With or you gotta get him in.
Bunches so four and a half seems really. HIGH i don't.
Know game total ten seems a little high as, well
but that stat really jumped out at. Me so Somehow
i'd like to take the The. Burrios Maybe i'll bet
his earned runs over two and a, half Or i'll
take his hits over six and a half or. Something
i'll find some way to bet burrios in this one
to get.
Speaker 3: Cracked Hey, brandon, yeah is it? POSSIBLE i know you
like to do the run hits. Errors is there a
guy that is really gone off on him For? Baltimore
that may be a different to look at it?
Speaker 4: Exactly who was? It was? It let me take a look. Here,
yeah the guy who has really cracked him pretty well
Is ryan. O'Hearn so his hits runs RBIs over one
and a half might be a way to. Go he's
twelve of thirty. Seven he's got a nine to thirty
ONE ops in a three twenty four average. Against looks
like he's been doing most of the. Damage Gunner henderson
is always a good hits runs RBI's guys to take
a guy to take because he's always on a hits,
streak AND i think his HIS ops is somewhere eight hundred.
Plus So Gunnar henderson's always a good. Guy BUT i
would do O'Hearn in this. One IF i was going
to do that.
Speaker 1: Bad i'm gonna read someone tweeted at.
Speaker 2: Me uh it was actually a comment on SO i
POSTED i post my plays every, day win or loss To,
twitter AND i posted my Two Blue jays losses, yesterday
and And he's, says you, know, essentially it was, like, oh,
now now you can just play the game The jays again.
Today i've already got the right up for. You they
can't possibly lose. Again, LISTEN i Don't that is not
how you should ever handicap. Baseball AND i don't think
i've ever like just BECAUSE i played them in two
legs of the double.
Speaker 1: Header that was never my.
Speaker 2: Rationale AND i actually liked The orioles today and the
reason and it plays off of some of the Stuff
Tokyo braindon just talked. About the REASON i was taking
a position on The Blue jays yesterday IS i had
two left handed starters in the double, header AND i
Thought Easton lucas would throw. Better you, know can't win them.
ALL i thought he would come out shut him down
for three. Innings he couldn't find the. Zone The orioles
crush right handed, pitching and at home the splits are
even more. Drastic so why WOULD i want any part
of The Blue jays today when you have when you
have a right handed pitcher on the, mound and The
orioles just absolutely crushed right handed pitching at. Home the answer,
IS i. Don't it would Be orioles or passed for me.
Here now DO i want The orioles knowing that one
of their relievers walked over to the other dugout, Yesterday
Sir Anthony, Demingez so they don't have, him and they've
used a couple of. Relievers the back end of this
game might get a little sketchy for The orioles because
they just they've had injuries in the pullpen as it.
Is BUT i want absolutely no part of The Blue
jays in this, game And i'm WITH. Tv it would
Be orioles or pass finding a way to get on
The orioles to score, runs or pass because the only
THING i can look at this game and confidently say
is that The orioles should should Hit barrios because this
is the profile of pitcher that this team just lights.
Speaker 1: Up.
Speaker 2: Now andrew, mckinnis that's our. Guy he's in the chat
what's up to, mckinnis appreciate you tuning. In he is
a die Hard Blue jays, fan and so he makes
a great point Because i've noticed it with this team for.
Years he, says This jay's team is so emotional it
pisses me off as a. Fan guys are either, smiling
dancing around having, fun or they looked rattled and.
Speaker 1: Frustrated there's never an in.
Speaker 2: Between, yeah that was one of the biggest criticisms of
the of the bashett, Vlag like this team that's supposed
to do all these great things the last few, years
they are they when things start to go, bad they
don't know how to get themselves out of, it, Really
and it hasn't really come up this year because things
have been running really good for, Them but in years
past that has been like the sort of like the
main thing where it's just like they look miserable and
that the heads are, down they're hanging their, heads and
it's like that's WHAT i saw for for eighteen. Innings,
YESTERDAY i had the misfortune of watching eighteen innings Of
Blue Jays baseball yesterday where they just. Couldn't they looked
exactly what mckinnis is pointing. Out how do they carry
that into This how do they get up, today play
a noon game and shake? That that's the. QUESTION i
don't think they. Do that's MY i don't THINK i
can bet, it BUT i don't think they.
Speaker 1: Do brian go.
Speaker 3: Ahead it's interesting that that's been said with a team
that Has Max scherzer on the. TEAM. Matc schurzer is
the most bulldog type of guy you can ask. For
he should be the. Guy it's, no it's not his
his spot for being a pitcher on this, team but
he's got to be the guy that comes out and
just yells at him, say, hey we haven't won this game,
yet and it's it's strange to have somebody like him
out there who like some people don't even want to
come near him when he's pitching because he'll bite their hat,
off and that that's just something that he needs to
come out and do, something because it's CLEARLY i. AGREE
i WATCH i watched this team, play AND i Love Gladdy.
Junior Glady, junior but he is very happy go lucky
kind of, guy and, yeah they need somebody to kick
some ass. There maybe it's the manager's.
Speaker 1: Fault it's such a good point by.
Speaker 2: Mckinnis, Honestly boba schet like it looks last, night he
looked like my nine year old, nephew where like we're
throwing in the backyard AND i could tell it's like
probably time For Freeze pop to take a break because
he's not focused. Anymore he swung at a three to
two pitch that was at his eyes to end the
game last, night like and that to, me and he
went on for, five, Right so he went on for. Five,
Tokyo brandon's so disgusted at, it he just. Left he,
went but he we'll probably get him right. Back the
point is he. Went he was zero for, Five and
that's what mckinnis is talking. About and the reason that
we're still talking about it here is BECAUSE i think
that's your handicapped for this. Game if you like The
orioles and you like how the stuff lines up for,
them you gotta like the spot from a mental, standpoint
because it's really tough to shape that playing a day
game after a double, Header like how are you gonna
shake how you were sort of feeling yesterday that, quickly
and it's, like, AGAIN i just don't know IF i
have the guts to play The orioles a day AFTER
i played The Blue jays.
Speaker 1: Twice But i'm not telling you not to do.
Speaker 2: It i'm just, saying like that WOULD i might go
into a mental tailspin IF i play The orioles today
and The Blue jays come out and. Win but if
you didn't get involved in a doubleheader, yesterday more power to.
YOU i THINK i think you have to look at The.
Orioles all, RIGHT, tv you're. Back so we we lost
it there for a.
Speaker 1: Sec.
Speaker 4: YEAH i switched on MY vpn and they cut me.
Speaker 1: Off that's that's no. Problem do You?
Speaker 2: Uh do you want TO i saw you throw a
something into our slack. Chat do you want to bring
that up right? NOW i think it's a good spot
to break up the talk about.
Speaker 4: That so this is pertaining to The Tigers diamondbacks. Game,
uh and let's, see let me get my time stamp.
Here we're at thirty, three thirty, Six, Okay SO i
WANT I So i've been watching, baseball scouting, baseball following
baseball for quite a long, time AND i still can't
figure out. Why Number one two, questions why do pitchers
Almost i'd say ninety percent of them have better stats at?
Home why is because they're comfortable in the. Park is
it because that's the park they practice?
Speaker 1: In maybe that's.
Speaker 4: It maybe you guys have some other answer to, that
but that's the only THING i can think. Of and number,
two for a guy Like paddock today who's making his
first start with The tigers after getting, traded now his
home Is detroit, now so does that mean he's going
to pitch better At detroit even though it's a foreign
ballpark to? Him so how do you approach? That SO
i have no answer for. That SO i really don't.
Know so let's Get brian's thoughts on that WHILE i
punch in these.
Speaker 3: Timestamps, well first of, all everybody feels better at. Home
if you follow the other, sports your teams do better
at home than they do on the. Road so it's
just not the. Pitchers the hitters usually hit better at.
Home you're used to that. Situation you feel, Comfortable, hey
you know nobody wants to be, booed and you know
stuff thrown at you and call the all names or,
whatever and unless you live In philadelphia Or New, york
doesn't happen at. Home but it's a situation where you
feel more comfortable. There and in, baseball for the starting, pitchers,
obviously the mound has a lot to do with. It
you your grounds crew knows how you like the, mount
so when you start at, home they kind of tend
it to to be what you want it to. BE
i don't know if that's going to have an effect
On paddick here unless he's gotten together already with with
the grounds crew In detroit and talked about. That but
that's basically what it. Is and your younger, players And
i've said this in every, sport your younger players all
feel better playing at home than they do on the.
Road sometimes they get intimidated on the. Road so, yeah
a lot of reasons for, it but it's the same
in every, sport every Sport i've ever, followed your home
team wins more than it does on the.
Speaker 1: Road let's stay on this.
Speaker 2: Topic let's let's go right into the game That paddock
will be pitching today in his new Home America, park.
Speaker 1: And So i'll go To brian.
Speaker 2: First BUT i just want to say, that, LIKE i,
understand AND i like the trade for The tigers. HERE
i think they're GONNA i think you're gonna see The
tigers get away from like the bullpen game every fifth day.
THING i just don't think it's been as effective as
it was toward the end of last. YEAR i think
for a number of, reasons they just they're not a
lot as locked in as a unit this, year and
SO i just think The pinch probably looked at his
team and was, like, Man i'm really taxing the bullpen
every fifth, day and it's, like we've got guys that
aren't super. Sharp there's guys that were big contributors last,
year Like Brisk brisky comes to, mind like not having
as good of a. Season there's a couple. Others SO
i think that was the basis for this. MOVE i
don't hate. It paddick's been. Okay it's not like Someone
i'm not rushing to back him, Here Brian. Leonard BUT
i don't mind the move for The, tigers AND i
do still think we're In tiger's uptick that we talked
about earlier late last, week earlier this, week they're starting
to bounce back from that LULL i don't necessarily want
to get in front of them. Either so how are
you Seeing Nelson? Paddock just from a matchup, Standpoint.
Speaker 3: Well the reason why they brought In paddick is Because
Reese olsen is now out for the. Season it came
out of no way really because they didn't even say
he was really majorly. HURT i know when last, time
last time they, PLAYED i Played detroit and he looked
really good and then all of a sudden he fell.
Apart that was when his arms bother him a little,
bit and so we just assumed he'd missed his next
start and come. Back And olsen is a really good.
Pitcher he's injured a, lot but when he, pitches he's very.
Good and once they announced that he was, out they
needed to fill, somebody find somebody to come in and
fill those. Innings and from The minnesota, standpoint they were
looking to get rid Of. Paddock they have younger players
they'd like to put in, there and it's getting to
the point in the season now With minnesota where they're
not going to win the division AND i want to
see what they can get out, of you, Know matthews
and some of the other guys they've got down there
in the pitching. Staff SO i worked out well for both.
Teams paddock pitching today at home Against nelson For. Arizona
we're looking about a one thirty Favorite Fort, detroit a
total of. Nine Ryan nelson's been very good as of.
Late he's been probably the best pitcher on this. Team
he comes in with a three point twenty NINE era
on the, season three point nine to nine expected one
point zero two. Whip that's what he's been much better
at this year is he's really cutting down on. That
but you, know his extension really. Helps he's six foot,
three it's eighty fifth percentile and, extension but he still has.
Problems his average ex velocity is the thirteenth, percentile chase
rate twenty first with rate. Thirteenth his numbers have been really,
good but he may be about due for you, know
for a regression candidate right. There Chris paddock four point ninety,
five four point six to three expected one point two eight.
Whip he's had allows you whip the last three years
one point four h one point three, nine one point two.
Eight he's not a big strikeout. Guy he's going one
hundred and eleven innings this, year only has eighty three.
Strikeouts his four scenery throws forty six percent of the,
time and yet it's about one full mile an hour
lower than the average right Handr he's of ninety three point.
Eight he does throw six, pitches but his cutter in his,
sinker he only throws less than ten percent of the.
Time he's not the kind of guy, like if you're
going to throw the four singer is your number one,
pitch you better be better than the league. Average he's
worse than the league. Average his extense is. Great he's
six foot, five ninety second percentile walk percentage has been
very good eighty seventh percentle chase rate eighty, six but
struck out right nineteenth wh whipp for right twenty, first
hard hit rate twenty, six ground ball rate twenty. Six
pitching in this, one this ballpark will help. Him it's
better pitching ballpark Than minnesota. Is this is one of
the best pitching park ballparks in. Baseball But i'm not
sure he's going to be a great fit. Here if
you look at what these two teams have done over
the last, month hitting, wise.
Speaker 1: We Have.
Speaker 3: Detroit And. Arizona arizona right now is twenty eighth IN
wrc plus with an eighty one THERE bab it's about
two eighty five isolated power one thirty, five so they're
not really hitting right. Now And, detroit believe it or,
not our second worst the last month IN wrc plus
it's an Eighty THEIR babeb is two eighty, eight so
they're they're about league, average maybe a little bit under
in that, regard but two teams that aren't hitting very
well right. Now we'll see if it turns. Around detroit
to get their big bopper, back so that that should
help the lineup in the lineup looks deeper now than
it was, before so they're getting back to what they
were earlier in the season when they had a lot
of healthy. Players BUT i don't want to go over
a nine In. Detroit they're more of a good pitching,
ballpark AND i think the bullpen For detroit is very good,
Too so slightly Herewith, detroit but not enough to get.
Speaker 4: Involved, Yeah i'll make this one real quick BECAUSE i
was talking about the home. Stuff so Ran nelson is
ranked pretty high according to my. Numbers In arizona has
a slight advantage with the. Bullpen paddock ranked very low
in my, numbers AND i agree With brian And Ryan
nelson will probably see a little regression from. Him one
frightening statistic that pops out WHEN i looked over this
game is the fact that in his, Career Ryan nelson
has a three point fifty three average against and a
nine eight ops against versus These detroit. Batters, now If
detroit were ranked fifteen or higher in, BATTING i would
jump all over their team total just because of, that
or even their total in the first. Five But detroit ice,
Cold arizona's ice cold as. WELL i Think detroit started
to show signs of breaking out in their last, game
If i'm not. Mistaken but, still it's just it's just
a little TOO i don't. KNOW i, Mean i'd like
to Approach detroit's over. Somehow SO i looked at the
first first five inning team total and it's two and a,
half and you, know betting on them to score three
runs when the ranks twenty eight out of thirty teams
in the in current form is just too much of
a stretch for. Me i'd like to go With, detroit
BUT i JUST i. CAN'T i can't get.
Speaker 2: There, YEAH i don't particularly care For, paddock SO i
want to CLARIFY i think it was the right move
from like a like team structure. Point for, NOW i
don't expect him to be anything more than just sort
of like an innings type, guy fifth, Starter like they're
not gonna run him out there in a playoff. Game
he's more, there like you, know The tigers can they
really can cruise control their way to a division, Title
like they just need someone to go out every fifth,
day give him five to six innings so they don't
cook the. Bullpen sean in the, chat he was pointing
out the you know The, tigers how they've outscored The,
Diamondbacks LIKE i think The tigers probably hit. Here SO
i actually do like the. OVER i think eight and
a half is a little bit. LOW i do Expect
arizona to do something Against, paddock BECAUSE i just. DON'T
i think it's unrealistic to think That paddock's just gonna
come in here and just wipe them out for six seven.
Innings so we'll call It arizona gets two or three,
runs maybe maybe they add one off The tigers, bullpen who.
Knows BUT i actually think The tigers could get To nelson. Here,
NOW i don't know what kind of Sample nelson has
against The TIGERS tv you referenced.
Speaker 1: IT i can't imagine it's that. BIG i. DON'T i
don't think he's seen The tigers a ton out his.
Speaker 2: Career BUT i, do, WELL i mean it's he's he
plays in the in the a different like They how
many times have they faced in the last couple of.
Speaker 1: Years probably not that.
Speaker 2: Many, HOWEVER i, agree, yeah, LIKE i do agree That
nelson's gonna have possibly some. Regression he's a he's a
guy that doesn't really have a great second or third.
Pitch so it's a really nice, fastball the second or
third pitch is isn't great at this, point and when
The tigers start to, Click brian mentioned Carry bonds is
back Carry, carpenter so that helps. Them what The tigers
start to, click they really start to, like you, know
they really start to expose a guy Like, nelson who
you know doesn't have a great second or third.
Speaker 1: Pitch all of a, sudden his fastball is not as.
Speaker 2: Effective tigers get some base, runners they're taking, it they're
running first to. Third they don't when The tigers are playing,
well those are the things they do. Regularly it's what
we basically saw them do for three, months and then
they had a two week lull where they had a
couple of guys go to The All Star.
Speaker 1: Game then they were. Tired then it just like all
kind of went rye for a.
Speaker 2: Minute but NOW i think The tigers are back to
being The tigers that they weren't for the first three.
MONTHS i expect them to score, today AND i do
think we see The diamondbacks do something that this offense
has to wake up at some. POINT i Think paddock
might be a nice uh you, know might be the
guy to wake them up a little. Bit so eight
and a half for me is about a run off
of WHERE i think, this but maybe a half run
off WHERE i have this. TOTAL i THINK i made
it like nine point, One but that's also a key
number when you're talking. Totals you, know eight and a
half supposed to. Nine SO i like the over, again
considering it for the. Parlay but what we'll lock stuff
in over the next fifteen. Minutes go, Ahead, Brian.
Speaker 3: Yeah, arizona you tried nine slightly to the over all
over across the, Board i'm not.
Speaker 1: Seeing oh so that.
Speaker 2: Moves so that took some money, then because WHEN i
WHEN i wrote WHEN i was johtting stuff down pre,
show it was eight and a, half so that someone
else must someone else must be looking at that as.
Speaker 1: Well. Interesting all, right so we'll So i'll go To,
brian do you have ANY i?
Speaker 2: Did we have fifteen minutes? Left we haven't locked a
parlay leg in. Yet does either one of you want
to propose a game that you might use for the
parley that we haven't talked about.
Speaker 1: Yet what do you THINK?
Speaker 4: Tv, well, uh, Yeah i'm gonna take The Boston Red sox,
Here SO i guess we can talk about this. Game
we haven't talked about it, yet, Right brian can?
Speaker 1: Start but, yeah let's let's Do let's Do Red sox
the time.
Speaker 4: Stamp.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Perfect this was one of the games THAT i
was thinking about talking. About so it'll be. Good you
Got bellow going Against breo going Against matthews here two current,
Number we've Got matthews about, one one, fifteen let's just
say one fifteen favorite eight to the over on the.
Total Brian bao is a guy THAT i normally don't
try to bet. On he's got a three point three TWO,
era but he SUSPECTED era is four point three. Nine
last two years his eras were four point four nine
and four point twenty, Four SO i think we know
what kind of pitcher he. Is his whipth this year
is one point two. Eight he's always struggled with his
career is one point three. Nine very. Good ground ball
percentage eighty fourth, percentile hard hit rates seventy fifth, percentile
not a guy who's going to strike anybody, out twenty first,
percentile and thirteenth percentile on whiff. Rate he throws six
pitches and his four seemer is down to seventeen percent
usage this, year AND i think that's why he's had
more of his. Success if you take a look at
his his four, seemer it's basically league average for a
right handed right handed better his. Sinker he's gone with
more of a sinker this. Year that's his number one.
Pitch his sinker's actually thrown slightly faster than his four.
Seemer it's a two point two percent fast than his for.
Seemer so he's a guy who's starting to learn how to,
pitch and he's been better this, year but STILL i
just don't think he's a guy i'm looking to. Back
for the most, Part Zebbe matthews comes in with a
four point ninety seventy three point sixty seven. Expected he's
a guy that's pitching better than his. Numbers his whip
one point three. Four if you remember last, year he
was a guy that didn't walk. Anybody his walker rate
was six point. Two now it's seven point, three but
his strikeout rate is going all the way up to
thirty point, six which gives him a twenty three point
three strikeout minus walk. RATIO i kind of Like minnesota.
HERE i know you said you Like, boston BUT i
Liked Zebbi matthews and last time out he put it all.
Together now he's a young pitcher that could turn around
and he could get bound, here BUT i like him
for future reference more Than. Bo he's pitching at, home and,
uh you're getting On madge, basically you, know slightly more
than a pickup. SITUATION i prefer The minnesota. Side i'm
interested to see why you Like.
Speaker 4: Boston, OKAY i do Like boston, here mainly because Now
i'm kind of like, You, brian And i've never really
Liked bao, much but this season he's really turning it,
on and what stat really jumps out to me is
the fact that against these batteris in his career one
forty three average against in a four point fifty two opis.
Against that's pretty. Amazing not only, that But boston's, bullpen
in my opinion current, form performing a lot better Than. Minnesota's,
uh The Boston bats are a little, sleepy but Soer.
MINNESOTA'S i have them both ranked quite, low SO i
think that's. COMPARABLE i Think bao can Shut minnesota out.
Here if you Like, zebby then maybe in an under
for this game might be. Good But i'm going to
go with The Red sox on the money line for
my parlay leg on this.
Speaker 3: One, okay looking like about plus one hundred or so
across the, board they're. Underdog, wow awesome's an. Underdog didn't
you just listen to my? Analysis?
Speaker 2: YEAH i, Did but, WELL i hope you're. RIGHT i
also like The twins. Here i'll give my. Reasoning i'm
not saying it's not saying that it's going to be,
right BUT i will just you, know we got to
break down the. Game, so, uh talking To Brian power this,
morning and you know we were talking about this.
Speaker 1: Game he uh he like.
Speaker 2: WE i was talking to him yesterday About Pearson owl
who made his his major league debut for The. Twins
and The twins this is like something THAT i noticed
that they're doing in their. Organization like All, So Zebbie
matthews was a four year college player from a mid,
major like a smaller a smaller. School they got him
in like the eighth. Round he went To Western. Carolina
All is a fifteenth round. Er he went To Grand.
Canyon the Reason i'm bringing that up is these guys
are he like Zeb matthews is not.
Speaker 1: Young he's twenty five years, old right like same thing With.
Speaker 2: Old they spent four years at a college and then
what happens is The twins want to see what they
have with these guys. Quickly so if they don't so
they can just boot them if they don't respond right.
Away last, Year Zebi matthews started the year in a
ball and they he was in the big leagues By.
July they just did the same thing With oh started
him in a ball in the big leagues By. July
the Reason i'm bringing that up here is Because zeb's
now in year. Two he's had the year he's had
AN mlb off, season and his numbers are very skewed
this year by working around a couple of. Injuries so
when you look at his what he's done this, year
it's actually been very. Impressive it's just he's had more
of his impressive starts have been At TRIPLE, a and
it's just the way that the cookie has crumbled for
him a little. Bit IT'S i don't think he's throwing
the ball any better or. Worse it's just he's had
a little bit better luck when he's on the mound
At Saint paul than when he is With.
Speaker 1: MINNESOTA i think some of it is. INJURY i think
it's some of it.
Speaker 2: Is just, luck, Right, like it's just you, know he's
he's starting every fifth, day but he's not always at
the big league. Level last time out was his best
start of the, year and that's What brian alluded. To
six shoutout innings against The, nationals seven, strikeouts no. WALKS
i would prefer to play, on you, know try try
to like ride that a little, bit BECAUSE i do
think that you're going to start to see him sort
of put it all, together because he's done it and
he just hasn't really been able to do it this
year because he hasn't always been at the big. Leagues
he got, it he had an injury for a, minute
SO i don't want to bet against. Him it Doesn't
it doesn't MEAN i love the twinsier per se in the, spot.
Speaker 1: BUT i do Like. Zeby so that's just my breakdown
in the.
Speaker 2: Game BUT i don't have a strong enough opinion to
tell you not to put it in the.
Speaker 1: Parlay so TV's.
Speaker 2: Going with The Red sox and the parlay fine with,
that and, uh LIKE i, SAID i hope you're, UH
i hope you're right about that BECAUSE i want to
hit the.
Speaker 4: Well I've i've been the loser of the parlay the
last two or three, Months so, Yeah i'm not feeling
real good about it.
Speaker 2: Now So sean puts up so he's saying no bucks
to Know Korea twins could be resting a couple guys.
Speaker 1: Today that certainly, Matters.
Speaker 2: So, Again i'm not that was really more my ALL
i have to offer there to that analysis is What
i've noticed With Zebbie.
Speaker 1: Matthews do what you will with.
Speaker 2: It i'm not saying that The Red sox won't find
a way to win this. Game so TV's on The
Red sox for the, parlay and we're fine with.
Speaker 1: That we hope they we hope they get it. Done all,
RIGHT i.
Speaker 2: Will i'll throw a game out there THAT i saw
in the chat a couple of, times because this might
very well be it for. Me we talked about one young,
team The, rockies not playing particularly well. Yesterday another young
team that we've been way ahead on finally didn't have
their best game. Yesterday that was The Chicago White. Sox
but they get to do it again. Today so we
Have Phillies White. Sox Brian, LEONARD, i there's SOMETHING i
like in this. GAME i don't know if you have
a guess as to what it might, be But i'm
gonna let you go.
Speaker 1: First Phillies White. Sox how are you seeing this?
Speaker 3: One And Ron walker again On Sadrian. Hauser. Uh current
line in this one Is philadelphia about a one thirty
five favorite total of. Nine when you look at what
they've done, Offensively philadelphia is sixth over the last month
with a one TWENTY wrc plus it's all common isolated. Power.
Uh they lead the majors in isolated power at that,
time which is two forty three because they have guys
that can get out in front and pull that, ball
and that's where they get the power from their babbib
is only two sixty, seven and it's very similar to
what The yankees usually. Do The yankees right now come
in with a babbet two forty. Four so both these
teams are very similar offensively in that. Regard obviously The
yankees you're missing judge right. Now But philadelphia does have
a lot of power on this, team and when they're
heading for, power they can have. Success The White sox
are also having a nice month, offensively cut a one
twenty FOUR wrc plus fourth in, baseball but a lot
of that comes down to their, babbit which is three
oh Five Taiwan walker going For philadelphia three point eight
FOUR era three point eighty eight EXPECTED era one point
three five. Whip he's actually been pretty good this. Year
he's got a three to five, record but that's the
BEST era he has had in a. While and he
is the only thing is he Does he's not a
big strikeout much walk. Guy he's only a ten point.
Five so, yeah we've picked On walker many times going
going against, him but here Against, CHICAGO i do have
some concerns. Ours houser's been great at, home even better
home than on The road's got a two point one
TWO era three point nine six expected, though so he's
been very. Fortunate now he does have that barrel percentage
at ninety two, percent centile extension eighty fifth, percentile ground
ball rate seventy, third all, great but his fifth percentile
is in the fifth. PERCENTILE O k rate, fourteenth hard
hit rate. Sixteenth he's a guy THAT i got a
feeling's gonna blow up at any. TIME i am concerned
a little bit. HERE i guesst a good Hitting phillies.
TEAM i have a feeling once, again you're gonna be
looking at the other side of this game THAN i.
WOULD i would prefer The philadelphia, Side BUT i have
enough underdogs on today's card WHERE i think is a
good underdog, day SO i probably won't get.
Speaker 4: Involved, yeah this is another one of those cover the logo,
games because if you cover the logo and the team,
names and these teams rank neck and neck as far
as my numbers are. Concerned but then you take your
hand off the logos and you're, like, Oh philly's gonna crush.
Them But philly's on the way to the Playoffs World series.
Contenders The White sox are just playing out another meaningless.
Season But White socks are hitting really well right. Now
their bullpen is so BUT i Like. Howser my numbers
have him pretty, mediocre but they Have Taiwan walker pretty
mediocre as, well And philly bullpen's slight. Advantage both teams
are crushing the ball right, now especially The White sox
got them ranked number three in all OF, mlb.
Speaker 1: So cover the.
Speaker 4: LOGO i would take The Adam Trigger Special White sox
plus one and a half IF i were to bet this.
One and you, know but.
Speaker 1: Both teams are hitting.
Speaker 4: Really, well so it's really hard to take a one
and a half BECAUSE i think this is going to
be like or ten plus runs in this. Game so,
yeah that would be the WAY i would. Go by the,
way CAN i change my parlay leg To Boston Red
sox first five under four and a? HALF i think
that's a better bet because both pitchers are hot and
neither team is really hitting very. Well so IF i
could change my parlay, leg sorry about, that, Guys, YEAH
i Think.
Speaker 1: Austin, yeah thank you About.
Speaker 2: Boston if they want we they no one has met
the parla yet because we don't have one.
Speaker 1: Yet so if if you want to change, it, now go.
Ahead so so you're gonna Go Red sox twins.
Speaker 4: Under four and a half in.
Speaker 3: Five for the most part of twenty.
Speaker 4: Five, Yeah, yeah that's What i'm gonna.
Speaker 1: Do you, KNOW i gotta be.
Speaker 2: HONEST I i came into this sort of breakdown thinking
That White sox plus one and a half would be
the WAY i would.
Speaker 1: Go it's still the WAY i would go.
Speaker 2: In this particular, game BUT i do THINK i maybe
didn't really think through the fact That philly really could
could hang a number On. Howser, Here brian makes a
great point some of some of those underlying metrics For
houser suggests that he might maybe give back some of
his good start at some, point like this great start
to HIS mlb season really His White sox.
Speaker 1: Career he was he was.
Speaker 2: Throwing the ball well for a round rock in The
rangers organization prior to getting signed by The White. Sox
so the MORE i think about, it and AND i
do not Like Tewan, walker so Maybe i've Maybe i've
spoken over into, existence like maybe that's the WAY i
would look at this game personally BECAUSE i do think
The White sox can get something Off. WALKER i am
a little bit concerned That howser might get bombed at
at some point AND i, don't and with The phillies
being what The phillies can, be and also the fact
that they profile better against the right handed, PITCHER i
am kind of maybe off The i'm gonna have to
go think about that game a little bit more BEFORE
i decide WHAT i want to do with, it which
means my parlay like will be The rockies again today
plus one and a, Half i'm running it. BACK i
think that this is a much better scenario for The
rockies than yesterday. Was you have the Veteran freeland on the.
Mound they didn't use any of the good bullpen, arms
and they're THEY'RE i, mean it's The. Guardians it's probably
going to be some of the b bullpen. Guys Cody
allard's not really a big league pitcher in my. Opinion
i've watched him plenty At. Columbus he's more of A i,
mean he's a guy THAT i guess you don't mind
having in there for a couple of, innings but not
someone on, that concerned about The rockies generating some offense
off Of i'll go back to WHAT i keep, saying
two even teams right. Now, So Brian, leonard what is
The rockies plus one and a half?
Speaker 1: Line right?
Speaker 3: NOW i do want to say That allard's probably part
of a bullpen. Game, YEAH i, Agree so he won't
be in more than an inning or two right. Now
colorado plus one and a half is minus one thirty.
Speaker 1: Six all, Right i'll take.
Speaker 2: That and, Yeah, ALARD i THINK i think he could
he could, go you, KNOW i think they might give
him a couple of, Innings, LIKE i, mean he was
starting games For, columbus so he definitely has the ability
to go more than.
Speaker 1: One but, YEAH i.
Speaker 2: Wouldn't i'm with you in the respect, that, like they're
not leaving him out there very, long And i'm fine with.
THAT i think The rockies can generate some. Offense i'll
say it one more. Time Since All Star, break they've
been an underdog every. Game they're six and, five playing
much better. Ball so give me the run and a
half with the road, team all, Right Brian, leonard we
need to close this parlay, out so, let's, uh what
do you got for us.
Speaker 3: Here i've got a few GAMES i like that are.
Underdogs and by the, way the we mentioned it, earlier
the trade deadline ends tomorrow and we actually talked About ryan.
O'Hearn ryan O'Hearn is one of the guys For baltimore
of that is almost guaranteed to be. Traded that's that's
the problem you run into right. Now a lot of these,
teams you handicap the game expecting somebody to be in
the lineup and then he's not going to. Be buxton
was mentioned he's on the il, Now so you've got
to keep that in the account when you look at
These so everything all week long has been pretty small for.
Me i'm gonna keep it small again. Today but why
is The Saint Louis cardinals of one fifty favorite here Against? Miami,
YEAH i know it's why is Because contrel is going For.
Miami But contrel is a much better picture when he
goes on the ROADS i talked about in the. Past
he's not a great picture by any, Means but how
could you expect another performance That Miles michlis put in
his last, start blew me. Away it's probably the best
start he has had in, years And Saint louis right
now is a. Seller they're already talking about Hells lee
is almost as good as going right. Now some of
their key hitters on this, team they're veteran, hitters will
likely be Traded miami's nobody's looking for The miami, hitters
and they're looking for The miami. Pitchers, well that's not
going to have an Effect miami's other. Starters we're not
going to have an effect on this game right. Here
so at LEAST i Know quantrell is not going anywhere
And micholas isn't going, Anywhere and SO i look at the.
TWO i Prefer quantrill Over, michless and we're getting a.
Plus you, Know i'm seeing upwards of you, know one
p thirty two out there On. Miami i'm gonna Play
miami plus one twenty eight here IS i think they're
just as good As Saint Louis. Is they've got more
to play for the rest of the, season and who
knows how many of These cardinals players will be gone
today or. Tomorrow i'm taking a shot here with a nice,
underdog and we'll play In miami plus one twenty.
Speaker 4: EIGHT i know we're running a little, long So i'll
keep it very, concise BUT i agree With. BRIAN i
have Cal quantrell ranked higher Than Miles. Meekliss there's no
way in the, World there's no way in the history
of the World Miles meekless should be a minus one
fifty favorite under any. Circumstance so, YEAH i would agree
With brian's analysis.
Speaker 2: THERE i fully agree With brian's. Analysis the only Thing
i'll add two. Things ONE i cash With. Quantra last
week he pitched great against The. Brewers, two The marlins
bullpen has been as good as any over the last like,
month month and a.
Speaker 1: Half this this the the.
Speaker 2: Group of relievers that they now have at the big
league level are all. Fantastic and if you look at
like recent THE tv pull it up real, quick what
do you Have marlin's bullpen like last thirty, Days it's
got to be very close to the top of the.
Speaker 1: Week they have been. Awesome so five five how about? That?
Speaker 2: Right they're not getting they're not getting five credit from
the book makers because they're still judged off the full,
season but they have been nails that relief.
Speaker 1: Unit go, Ahead.
Speaker 3: Brian, yeah one final. Thing the best relievers in The Saint, Louis,
Bullpen heisley Or, Elsley, Mayton romero and. O'Brien none of them,
well but The, Romero, mayton And isley have not pitched
in four. Days they will likely get into the, game
but they will be very. Rusty in, fact there's probably
reason Why heisley hasn't pitched is because they've been looking
to trade. Them they don't want him to get. Hurt, so,
yeah a lot of things to be concerned about with
The cardinals.
Speaker 2: Here so we have now that that juiced up the
parlay very. Nicely that that parlay's plus six. Fifteen Now
i'll read it off. Here we Have rockies plus one
and a. Half that's full. Game we Have marlin's Money
line plus one twenty eight that's full. Game and Then
Tokyo brandon is going to go With Red sox twins
under four and a half in the first. Five i've
got to, SAY i like That's i'm glad you changed.
THAT i like that much better. PERSONALLY i think you're
you're onto something there with that being. Under so someone
in the chat, says these guys pushing a. Parlay if
you're new to the, show we do a show parlay
every show so far this. Year if you've played them,
all they're up ten point four, units or for every,
dollar if you've played them, equally every dollar would yield
ten dollars and forty. Cents they've Been you, know it's
something we do for. Fun but they're still, winning So
i'm gonna point that. Out, so, yeah the parlay is
just something we do for. Fun you can bet them,
straight you can bet, them you don't have to bet
them at.
Speaker 1: All we actually really don't. Care we're just trying to
give out decent.
Speaker 2: Info but that's what we do every, show and we're
gonna end this show the way we do every show
with the parlay and also telling you to go like
and subscribe and comment and support the.
Speaker 1: Show we very much appreciate.
Speaker 2: That but one more, time for the people in the BACK,
tv the parlay is plus six, fifteen It's rockies plus
one and a, half It's marlin's on the money line
And Red Sox twins first five under four and a.
Half appreciate all you guys tuning in live on. Demand
we've been able to do this show five days a,
week and it's because of all the viewers and the
fact that it's done well because of you, guys so
we very much appreciate all the, comments good, bad. Feedback
whatever you've, got we want to hear, It so jump
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luck with all your plays. Today enjoy some day. Baseball
we will see you guys tomorrow, morning right here at
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