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Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. Its Wednesday morning. It's time for

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total bases.

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Speaker 2: We got day games today, boys, so we've got to

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get right into it full slate. I love Wednesdays. I

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love day games. Every day should have a day game.

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But I need another show to I could do an

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hour on why there should be at least one day

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game in Major League Baseball every day. It's good for

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the sport. But anyway, we got him today, So welcome

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in to all you guys in the chat. Appreciate you

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showing up every day. We got Tokyo Brand and Brian Leonard,

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and I'm gonna get right into it. We're talking Reds Dodgers.

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That's gonna be our feature game today. We've got show

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hey O Tommy on the mound for as long as

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I guess he's gonna go. And then we've got Nick

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Martinez for the Reds, Brian Leonard the Reds. I felt

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like they had that one last night. I did a

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free play video. I gave Reds plus one and a

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half out, so that got there, but I was shocked

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that they couldn't get to the finish line with that

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four to two win. Felt like they had the bullpen

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edge back today. What'd you see last night? And are

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you getting involved with Red's Dodgers.

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Speaker 3: I had the Reds in the first five yesterday, so

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that worked out well. I was concerned about the bullpen,

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and that's the major concern here. Melia Pagan's gone four

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to the five centillion, four of the five Burlough back

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to back Ashcraft through twenty seven pitches, and their closer

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has been a guy that they've kind of overworked, and

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it showed yesterday a little bit. So I'll put that

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on Terry Fredcona. It was a game that Cincinnati should

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have won, but the Dodgers are a veteran team that

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knows how to win and they were able to come

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back and get that victory. But it was good for

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me and my clients, but not good for Cincinnati Reds fans.

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We've got Otani's basically probably about a one sixty five favorite.

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There's a lot of variance right now. It's early in

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the morning, obviously, and Martinez going for Cincinnati, a guy

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that we like. He's been very up and down, but

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Fling that is nine. I don't have a lot of

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information from the pitching standpoint on Otani because for some reason,

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this tech cast doesn't have his stats up for pitchers,

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so I'm gonna have to go blind on that, but

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we will go with Nick Martinez. A lot of info

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on Nick four point six' nine era four point oh

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seven expected one point two two. Whip last two seasons

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HIS era was three point one and three point four to.

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Three he did pitch mostly out of the bullpen in

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those two, games so that's what or excuse, me those two,

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seasons which is why those numbers are. Better you should

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be better in the bullpen because you can lay it

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all out in a short time as opposed to expanding

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your starts and going. Longer but he's already reached basically

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what his average was for the last two. Years and

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then his pitch he's at one twenty. One but he's

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a guy THAT i. Like his walk great last year

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was amazing at three point, two but it's still going

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to a starter. Now he's still very good five point.

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Eight his strikeout rate has obviously gone down the last

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few years is a relief twenty three twenty point. Four

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this year's down to seventeen point, two which you can,

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understand which gives him about eleven point four strikeout mind

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just walk not really what we're looking. For his best

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at the walk, rate hard hit, rate and barrel, rate

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which is pretty, good but you can't get many. Chases

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he's in the eleventh percentile a fifth, percent, twelfth strikeout percent,

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Fifteenth so when he's on, there when the ball gets,

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hit mostly bad things. HAPPEN i was checking out the

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leaderboard on fad racks for the last. Month i'm just

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checking out these two. Teams cincinnati comes. In they'ren't twenty

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first IN wrc plus at ninety, Five but what really

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got to me was isolated. Power and isolated power is

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basically your pole. Power teams that are very good at

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hitting home runs are the teams that have the great pole,

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power but two of the. Worst in, fact of the

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two worst is Been cincinnati And. Houston Now, houston you

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can understand that because they're missing their big bats and

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obviously their third, baseman who is a major poll, hitter

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has been. Hurt so they're worse than Major League baseball right.

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Now and it's showed in THEIR wrc plus of eighty

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five despite having a THREE zho One, babbitt which is

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higher to leak. Average The cincinnati lack of power is.

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Concerning they play in a ballpark that is a great

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home run, ballpark but they're not pulling the. Ball that

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is something you have to consider because in this, ballpark

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if you can hit home, runs you're gonna. Lose and

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so The cincinnati club is somebody right now that it

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has some concerns. ABOUT i prefer The dodger side in this.

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One but to be totally honest with, you when a

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team has a lead and blows it late and loses

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to being that gives an additional motivation the following. Day

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that's a, Situation cincinnati situation right. Now so it's enough

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to keep me from getting involved in this.

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Speaker 4: Game the big question, HERE i think is going to

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be how many innings Is otany going to?

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Speaker 1: Pitch.

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Speaker 4: Now i've heard like rumblings here and there that they're

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actually going to let him start going five, innings BUT

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i don't know if that's going to be this game or.

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Not his last four starts he went TWO inny two,

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inning then he went THREE inny three. Inning so is

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this where they bump him up to four or are

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they going to actually give him a chance to record

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a win in this? Game not really. Sure otani has great,

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numbers but very limited, actions so you can't really put

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a lot of credence into. That Nick, Martinez, no his

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walk grade is a little bit up. There dodgers' bullpen

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performing terribly right, now but their hitting is starting to

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catch out.

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Speaker 1: Now The, dodgers.

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Speaker 4: They had been missing production From betts And, freeman and

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both of those guys are starting to heat up. Now

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so watch out because if those two guys are starting to,

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hit and then you got Like pahes in the, Back

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edmund's starting to heat, up and you got those secondary

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guys who've been carrying the team for a week or.

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So now those, guys you don't need to depend on them,

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anymore and whatever you get from them is frosting on the.

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CAKE i think The dodgers are going to start to

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put up runs in bunches, Now SO i would go

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with The dodgers team total. Here PERHAPS i haven't done it,

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yet but if, ANYTHING i would either do a game

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over or The dodgers team total over.

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Speaker 2: Here, Yeah brian mentioned The reds bullpen being a little

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bit taxed and used. Up got a great stat for you,

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Guys not really a, stat it's more of a just

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SOMETHING i noticed WHEN i was looking at this game

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the last couple of. Days The dodgers after last night

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have now played sixteen straight games decided by three runs or.

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Speaker 1: Less The. Dodgers that's shocking to.

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Speaker 2: ME i would not have ever guessed, that because this

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is a team that we are so accustomed, to just

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like every once in a while steamrolling a. Team AND

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i think everyone sort of has The dodgers as this like,

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big powerful team that's gonna win, big and you know

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that's what they're supposed to.

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Speaker 1: Be really, like that's what this team is supposed to.

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Speaker 2: Be and they've played sixteen games consecutive decided by three

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runs are.

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Speaker 1: Less of, course last night again five fur they score.

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Speaker 2: Late SO i look at this and, like maybe The

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dodgers didn't have the bullpen usage at the red cted,

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yesterday BUT i think you certainly have to like their

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their pen collectively certainly has to be just as fatigue

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if they are in every single day they're in a

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three run, game two run, game and the thing is

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they're winning a good amount of, these so it's, like

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you know those those two run, wins three run, wins

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one run, win as those pile, up that really taxes a.

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Bullpen so If i'm gonna work backwards, Here i've got

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to like the over BECAUSE i do think that there's

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probably runs at the end of this game if that's the.

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Case and Then Tokyo brandon made a great. Point we

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don't know how Long otani's gonna. Go my guess is

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it's more about how economically is at this, Point LIKE

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i don't think they're really looking at innings as much

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as it's, like you, know if his pitch counts, down

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maybe they let him go.

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Speaker 1: Five otherwise it might be. Four otherwise it might be.

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Speaker 2: Three but, like you, know let's call it what you,

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know just looking at what he's, done is it gonna

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be more than? Four probably, not it's probably, Right probably

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a good assessment of where he's gonna. Be so you

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got you got to think you're gonna get at least

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five innings here from The dodgers'.

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Speaker 1: Bullpen how how deep Is Nick martinez gonna?

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Speaker 2: Go? Right like he's been shaky And colin in The

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chatz As dodgers will Smash martinez today can't really argue with.

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Speaker 1: That it's very.

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Speaker 2: Possible so the total being nine and a half is

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annoying because nine and a half is kind of that

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number that baits you a little. Bit we all like

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the flat, nine, right because four or four gets you.

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THERE i actually make this total ten and a. Half

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so IF i had to play this, GAME i think

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it would be the. Over and then IF i absolutely

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had to play a, SIDE i THINK i would run

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it back with reds plus one and a. Half that's

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kind of WHAT i. Did that's kind of WHAT i

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did in the free pick video. Yesterday it got, there

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so that would be just the lesser of two evils

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for me minus one fifteen or. Whatever BUT i think

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the best play here would be runs go.

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Speaker 1: Ahead Bran.

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Speaker 3: Yeah in regards to The dodgers', Bullpen ivessly has pitched

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back to back the last two, days but only throwing

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twenty eight. Pitches he may be. Available dryers pitched three straight,

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games but he's thrown a total of twenty one pitches

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in those three. Games that probably still getting the day,

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off but most of the other guys will be. Available

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dustin may came in the other day and through seventy

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seven he won't be, available but everybody else should be

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available for an ending or. So what makes The dodgers

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a little bit different than a lot of. Teams is

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they really now With scott, out they really don't have

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a designated, closer so they could do a lot of good.

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Matchups is the game goes, on and, YEAH i think

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they're in pretty good shape for the bullpen. Game now

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there's other, game other teams they're going bullpen games we'll

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talk about today THAT i think are going to really.

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Struggle but we'll get to those as we go.

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Speaker 2: On Russell deck Says DraftKings Got dodgers team total over

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five and a half even? Money, well if over five

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and a half is even, money if you can get

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over four and a half and it's not horrific, JUICE

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i could see. That you're getting a visiting, team so

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that's a. Plus you're getting The reds bullpen that's, tired

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so that's a. Plus Nick, martinez who hasn't been that,

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great you, know The dodgers lineup should certainly be able

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to get. Something So russell can't really put you off

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that that is A i think that that's a fine

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bet if that's a bet that you want to, make all,

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Right Wolf GAMING, Tv he, Says, adam why did you

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pick The?

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Speaker 1: Rockies plus?

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Speaker 2: One and a half yesterday they got, him absolutely. Did

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and that's that is the that is what you're gonna.

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Like that's the conundrum with some of these. Teams rockies

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might be the best. Example you have a team that's

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probably better than what they were earlier in the, year

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that's gonna show value against the number almost every. Day

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but they are still a young team and they're still

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just not a great baseball. Team so picking your spots

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with a team like The rockies is. Paramount and that's you,

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KNOW i didn't make it a client, play and it's

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IT'S i used it in the parlor BECAUSE i thought

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it was. Value but, like that is going to be

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the tough thing with a team like The. Rockies and

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you're gonna see a couple of these teams emerge over

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the next week or two as teams really get.

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Speaker 1: Active what do we get two days left in the trade.

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Speaker 2: Market you're gonna see some teams get active where suddenly

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they're gonna dump players and then they're gonna be in

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the same.

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Speaker 1: Boat So i'm gonna go To Brian.

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00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:49,960
Speaker 2: Leonard this is His Cleveland, guardians who got off the

237
00:11:50,000 --> 00:11:51,279
mat yesterday with a nice.

238
00:11:51,320 --> 00:11:53,879
Speaker 1: Win how are you seeing this.

239
00:11:53,919 --> 00:11:55,440
Speaker 2: One do you have any interest in going with The

240
00:11:55,519 --> 00:11:57,240
rockies today or are they a team that you're gonna

241
00:11:57,279 --> 00:11:59,559
have a hard time touching because you just never know

242
00:11:59,600 --> 00:12:00,000
what you're going to.

243
00:12:00,200 --> 00:12:03,360
Speaker 3: Get, well you've got to realize when The rockies fall

244
00:12:03,399 --> 00:12:05,759
behind and they got to make a, move they're not

245
00:12:05,759 --> 00:12:08,279
going to bring in their better. Relievers, now, great they

246
00:12:08,360 --> 00:12:11,519
don't have all star type relievers on this, team but

247
00:12:11,639 --> 00:12:15,039
they're back end the guys that come in long relief

248
00:12:16,480 --> 00:12:21,080
that those guys are not very. Good just you figure

249
00:12:21,080 --> 00:12:25,360
you got the worst team in, baseball and if if

250
00:12:25,639 --> 00:12:28,120
the last guys in the bullpen are not going to

251
00:12:28,159 --> 00:12:31,960
be very. Good and they pitched yesterday forty For, chavelli

252
00:12:32,480 --> 00:12:36,399
fifteen For, hill forty three For, hrget but none of

253
00:12:36,440 --> 00:12:39,879
the top four relievers on the Team, Halverson, Kenley, vodnik

254
00:12:39,919 --> 00:12:42,519
And bird pitched. Yesterday now they did pitch the day

255
00:12:42,519 --> 00:12:46,559
before when they got that. Victory so a lot of

256
00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:48,639
it depends on how the game goes. On so that's

257
00:12:48,679 --> 00:12:51,679
why you get a lot Of rockies games and for that,

258
00:12:51,799 --> 00:12:53,960
month that, part you, Know White sox, games some of

259
00:12:53,960 --> 00:12:57,399
their are lesser, teams The a's that sometimes they just

260
00:12:57,480 --> 00:13:01,879
get blown out and because they just don't have enough

261
00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:05,480
depth in the in the relief, pitching and that's always

262
00:13:05,519 --> 00:13:08,440
a concern. There we're looking at two lefties, Here freeland And.

263
00:13:08,600 --> 00:13:13,519
Alard alex pitch pretty well For. Cleveland it's a bull

264
00:13:13,759 --> 00:13:18,480
bullpen game For cleveland, here which is somewhat of a.

265
00:13:18,480 --> 00:13:21,919
Concern let's take a look at The cleveland bullpen over

266
00:13:22,840 --> 00:13:26,480
the last few days. Here they did get hit pretty

267
00:13:26,480 --> 00:13:29,080
hard a couple of days, ago but you, know they're

268
00:13:29,159 --> 00:13:31,519
pretty good. Shape nobody's gone back to back except For Tim,

269
00:13:31,519 --> 00:13:34,919
herron who was fresh off a TRIPLE a and he

270
00:13:34,960 --> 00:13:37,120
hasn't really looked that good so. Far but other than,

271
00:13:37,120 --> 00:13:40,759
that everybody should be available in The cleveland. Bullpen two

272
00:13:40,799 --> 00:13:44,120
lefties going, Today freeland And. Alard we're looking at the

273
00:13:44,120 --> 00:13:47,519
total Of cleveland about one to eighty right, now maybe

274
00:13:47,559 --> 00:13:51,840
one eighty five and a total of. Eight cleveland doesn't

275
00:13:51,879 --> 00:13:54,879
hit lefties very. Well colorado doesn't hit lefties very. Well

276
00:13:56,480 --> 00:13:59,720
it is getaway, day but it is an afternoon. Game

277
00:13:59,799 --> 00:14:01,399
is a host to a lot of these games that

278
00:14:01,480 --> 00:14:07,799
are being played. Earlier So cleveland has been one of

279
00:14:07,799 --> 00:14:10,600
those teams for me THAT i don't think they're very

280
00:14:10,600 --> 00:14:16,279
good and they're not making any moves during the, break

281
00:14:16,320 --> 00:14:18,600
as far AS i, know They've they've had they've talked

282
00:14:18,600 --> 00:14:22,519
About kwan and some, others but they. CAN'T i just.

283
00:14:22,519 --> 00:14:24,320
Can't they're gonna have to be blown away to get

284
00:14:24,360 --> 00:14:26,200
rid Of. Kwan he's the second best player on the.

285
00:14:26,200 --> 00:14:30,320
Team Shane bieber Pitching akron last. Night he looked good,

286
00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:35,600
again so he will likely be. Traded but this is

287
00:14:35,600 --> 00:14:37,399
a this is a dead year For, cleveland and this

288
00:14:37,480 --> 00:14:39,639
is a club who's used to be fighting for the,

289
00:14:39,679 --> 00:14:43,480
Playoffs SO i could See cleveland struggling in the second

290
00:14:43,519 --> 00:14:46,279
half of the. Season but then, Again colorado on the

291
00:14:46,360 --> 00:14:49,360
road has never been very good this. Year don't know

292
00:14:49,360 --> 00:14:52,039
If i'll get there with. Him part of me thinks

293
00:14:52,039 --> 00:14:53,799
it will be a lower scoring game because people are

294
00:14:53,840 --> 00:14:56,639
because they're just looking to get out of, here Especially.

295
00:14:56,679 --> 00:14:59,039
Colorado so we'll see how it. Goes But i'll be

296
00:14:59,039 --> 00:14:59,480
passing on.

297
00:14:59,559 --> 00:15:04,879
Speaker 4: This The rockies are a bad, team but they're hitting

298
00:15:05,240 --> 00:15:09,480
really well right, now and so are The. Guardians, Actually

299
00:15:09,639 --> 00:15:15,039
i've got both of these teams ranked over eleven out

300
00:15:15,080 --> 00:15:19,519
of thirty, teams and neither bullpens performing really, well so

301
00:15:19,679 --> 00:15:23,279
that would lead me to think over in this, one

302
00:15:23,399 --> 00:15:26,679
BUT i don't have a good read On. ALARD i

303
00:15:26,720 --> 00:15:29,919
do have a good read On, freeland, though and he

304
00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:33,559
ranks really. LOW i used to think he's their best

305
00:15:33,559 --> 00:15:39,120
picture in their, rotation but he might. Be, actually if you,

306
00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:43,879
look they were starting A Dole anger and some other Guy,

307
00:15:43,960 --> 00:15:47,120
sanzatela and compared to those, guys he might be the

308
00:15:47,159 --> 00:15:50,480
best one in their. Rotation but he's not very. Good

309
00:15:50,879 --> 00:15:54,440
and if, ANYTHING i would do either team total over

310
00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:57,519
or the game, over but haven't really done it.

311
00:15:57,600 --> 00:15:58,159
Speaker 1: Yet BECAUSE i.

312
00:15:58,120 --> 00:16:00,639
Speaker 4: Don't have a real good read On, Alard i'll probably

313
00:16:00,679 --> 00:16:03,799
stay off of. This i'd love to Take, cleveland but

314
00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:06,879
the fact That colorado's hitting so well kind of scares me.

315
00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:07,159
Speaker 3: Off.

316
00:16:07,200 --> 00:16:13,159
Speaker 2: It TO broni, listen The rockies are literally the definition of.

317
00:16:13,279 --> 00:16:18,440
Value i'll explain what that term gets thrown around too,

318
00:16:18,519 --> 00:16:21,559
much but this is like cut and. Dry not only

319
00:16:21,879 --> 00:16:24,720
do they show line, value but they're six and five

320
00:16:24,919 --> 00:16:26,720
since The All Star, break and they've been an underdog

321
00:16:26,759 --> 00:16:29,159
in every single. Game so if you just bet The

322
00:16:29,240 --> 00:16:32,600
rockies every day since the, break you're doing quite good

323
00:16:32,679 --> 00:16:35,200
right now because they've Been i'm not talking about betting

324
00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:37,440
against the. SPREAD i mean if you just Taken rockies

325
00:16:37,480 --> 00:16:39,919
money line every day since The All star. Break you're

326
00:16:39,919 --> 00:16:42,519
doing just fine because they've been an underdog every single

327
00:16:42,559 --> 00:16:45,440
game and they're six and. Five so that is literally

328
00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:49,000
the definition of value right. There the other thing, is

329
00:16:49,440 --> 00:16:51,879
AND i think it Was Steve Steve duke maybe or

330
00:16:52,559 --> 00:16:56,320
the chat scrolled too, quickly who's lining up to lay

331
00:16:56,360 --> 00:16:58,720
two dollars with The guardians right? NOW i think that's

332
00:16:58,759 --> 00:17:01,559
really What WHEN i look at this, SERIES i really

333
00:17:01,600 --> 00:17:02,320
see two.

334
00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:06,240
Speaker 1: Teams that are that are not that far off from each.

335
00:17:06,279 --> 00:17:08,240
Speaker 2: Other AND i know it like seems, like you, know

336
00:17:08,319 --> 00:17:11,839
the the win loss records, are there's a huge disparity

337
00:17:11,839 --> 00:17:15,119
in the, Record But i'm talking about right, now taking

338
00:17:15,160 --> 00:17:17,480
into account what The guardians have gone, through losing a

339
00:17:17,519 --> 00:17:20,039
couple of pitchers and having that all go, on taking

340
00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:22,559
into account the fact that The rockies have called some guys,

341
00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:24,440
up they're playing a little bit better ball right. NOW

342
00:17:25,200 --> 00:17:27,359
i don't think there's a huge difference between these two.

343
00:17:27,440 --> 00:17:30,119
Teams and if you're going to continue to give me

344
00:17:30,240 --> 00:17:34,359
plus money or playable plus one and a half, numbers

345
00:17:35,200 --> 00:17:37,880
Then i'm gonna have to continue to look at that

346
00:17:37,960 --> 00:17:41,640
to be a viable option to make a bet. On

347
00:17:41,839 --> 00:17:44,680
so you know in this case Like, Alard, yeah HE'S i,

348
00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:47,440
mean he's not SOMEONE i would bet. On it's probably

349
00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:51,759
more of like a bullpen game type. Situation As brian, Said, Tokyo,

350
00:17:51,839 --> 00:17:54,480
brandon you Said, freeland you know he's not he's not,

351
00:17:54,559 --> 00:17:56,640
great but he's still a. Veteran, like he's still someone

352
00:17:56,640 --> 00:17:58,599
THAT i, think on a given day can go give

353
00:17:58,640 --> 00:18:00,480
you five and five or six innings and keep you

354
00:18:00,519 --> 00:18:00,680
in a.

355
00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:04,519
Speaker 1: Game So i'll go back to What brian, said like low.

356
00:18:04,319 --> 00:18:07,480
Speaker 2: Scoring, game maybe like getaway day, type sleepy type.

357
00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:09,279
Speaker 1: GAME i like the run in that.

358
00:18:09,359 --> 00:18:12,359
Speaker 2: Situation So i'm right back On rockies plus one and

359
00:18:12,400 --> 00:18:12,640
a half.

360
00:18:12,720 --> 00:18:14,200
Speaker 1: HERE i don't know If i'll use it in the.

361
00:18:14,200 --> 00:18:16,359
Speaker 2: Parlay jump in the comments and let me know how

362
00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:18,240
pissed off you'll be IF i use it in the,

363
00:18:18,279 --> 00:18:19,440
parlay And i'll think.

364
00:18:19,319 --> 00:18:21,359
Speaker 1: About it for the next thirty. Minutes go, Ahead, Brian,

365
00:18:21,839 --> 00:18:22,599
YEAH i just want.

366
00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:24,839
Speaker 3: To touch on a couple of things That brandon, said

367
00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:29,359
and he's. Correct, Yeah cleveland And colorado hitting pretty, well

368
00:18:29,599 --> 00:18:32,359
But colorado's got over the last month of one oh

369
00:18:32,440 --> 00:18:35,759
SIX wrc Plus cleveland's got a one twenty. Six but

370
00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:38,720
when you look at the. Babbis cleveland's at one, Thirteen

371
00:18:39,079 --> 00:18:42,920
colorado's excuse, Me cleveland's at three, Thirteen colorado's at three.

372
00:18:43,039 --> 00:18:46,160
Nineteen league average is about two. Ninety so they've been

373
00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:48,799
getting a little bit. Lucky but what the Point i'm

374
00:18:48,839 --> 00:18:51,480
trying to make here is look at what the teams

375
00:18:51,480 --> 00:18:55,519
That cleveland has played during this streak where they're supposedly hitting.

376
00:18:55,519 --> 00:18:58,839
WELL i look at these pitching, staffs The Colorado, Rockies

377
00:18:59,559 --> 00:19:04,119
Kansas royals without their ace who's. Hurt The Baltimore orioles

378
00:19:04,119 --> 00:19:07,039
and we've seen The oriols terrible pitching staff all season.

379
00:19:07,079 --> 00:19:12,720
Long The athletics And Chicago White. Sox they are playing

380
00:19:12,799 --> 00:19:15,519
some of the worst pitching in, baseball and that is

381
00:19:15,559 --> 00:19:18,200
why they're hitting right. Now this is still not a

382
00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:21,160
good hitting. Team and AS i you, KNOW i said

383
00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:23,000
all the, time they've only got two major league hitters

384
00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:25,839
on this team and they're thinking about trading one of.

385
00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:28,559
THEM i don't want to Play cleveland. OVER i think

386
00:19:28,559 --> 00:19:30,400
they're just taking advantage of a lot of bad.

387
00:19:30,519 --> 00:19:36,119
Speaker 2: Pitching good points right. There, yeah let's let's move. On

388
00:19:36,200 --> 00:19:38,559
i'm not Gonna i'm not gonna pick that. Yet although

389
00:19:38,759 --> 00:19:41,519
that is Something i'm considering. Again to, me like to

390
00:19:42,319 --> 00:19:45,519
play that though for me like that's on my short

391
00:19:45,519 --> 00:19:47,039
list for. Today i'm gonna have to see how the

392
00:19:47,079 --> 00:19:50,799
market plays that because it's still a little bit inflated

393
00:19:50,799 --> 00:19:52,200
for WHERE i would want the plus one and a.

394
00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:54,599
Half but we'll see how it. Goes it's it's definitely

395
00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:59,160
One i'm. Thinking ocho, says Blue jays smoked. Me, yeah

396
00:19:59,279 --> 00:20:03,599
smoked me esterday. TOO i went on to And Major

397
00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:05,880
League baseball yesterday and both my losses were The Blue,

398
00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:09,000
Jays Blue Jay's game, One Blue Jay's game. TWO i

399
00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:11,839
took a position on The Blue Jays i'm sorry base

400
00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:15,240
basically against The, orioles thinking that they wouldn't beat two

401
00:20:15,319 --> 00:20:18,799
left handed starters in a, day especially when the second

402
00:20:18,799 --> 00:20:22,240
one Was Eric lauer and the Way David, schneider the

403
00:20:22,279 --> 00:20:25,400
Way schneider managed that first, game he basically waved their

404
00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:28,799
white flag after in a four to three game in

405
00:20:28,839 --> 00:20:31,559
the sixth, inning which was puzzling to. Me but then

406
00:20:31,599 --> 00:20:33,960
he had all his, good good relief arms and they

407
00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:37,000
couldn't score Off Brandon. YOUNG i believe The Blue jays

408
00:20:37,079 --> 00:20:39,680
Yesterday Brian leonard went something like one for twenty one

409
00:20:40,039 --> 00:20:42,759
with runners in scoring position in the in the, doubleheader

410
00:20:43,039 --> 00:20:43,279
it was.

411
00:20:43,359 --> 00:20:44,480
Speaker 1: BAD i don't remember what it.

412
00:20:44,519 --> 00:20:47,640
Speaker 2: Was Boba schet swung at a ball at his eyes

413
00:20:47,839 --> 00:20:51,519
to end the game with second and. Third like it

414
00:20:51,559 --> 00:20:53,759
was just it was just a bad day of baseball

415
00:20:54,279 --> 00:20:57,640
from The Blue, jays and in really a double header

416
00:20:57,680 --> 00:21:01,319
that couldn't have been more on a platter for. Them Charlie,

417
00:21:01,319 --> 00:21:03,960
Morton Brandon. Young Brandon young was supposed to be at

418
00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:06,640
a ball working stuff. Out he was actually sent To

419
00:21:06,839 --> 00:21:10,079
aberdeen to like work on, mechanics and they then they

420
00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:12,839
grabbed him as the twenty seventh man because they needed

421
00:21:13,039 --> 00:21:16,000
a guy for the. Doubleheader and he came out and

422
00:21:16,039 --> 00:21:18,079
he looked Like Sandy. KOFAX i, mean it was just

423
00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:21,720
it was ridiculous. Stuff So Brian, leonard now these guys

424
00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:24,920
turn around and play at noon, today how like can The?

425
00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:27,359
Blake do you have any faith in The Blue jays

426
00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:28,599
or do they look cooked right?

427
00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:33,160
Speaker 3: Now, Well Barry Elson kramer, Here kramer's been a guy

428
00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:35,440
who lately has pitched a lot better than he has

429
00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:38,279
earlier in the. Season we're looking at total maybe you

430
00:21:38,319 --> 00:21:40,839
Know baltimore one ten favorite total of ten here too

431
00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:44,000
slightly to the. Under, uh, YEAH i was with. YOU

432
00:21:45,559 --> 00:21:49,920
i went two in one, yesterday but my first play

433
00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:55,559
was The baltimore team total, under and needless to, say

434
00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:58,440
that one was. Ugly SO i got the ugly out

435
00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:00,279
of the way. Early thankfully it was only one and

436
00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:04,359
a half percent. Play but, yeah they Didn't they did

437
00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:08,359
not look. Good the opener For toronto could not find

438
00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:10,319
the play it. Was it was just an ugly day For.

439
00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:13,480
Toronto and if you. LOOK i mentioned the leaderboards over

440
00:22:13,519 --> 00:22:16,799
the last, month they're still leading baseball IN wrc plus

441
00:22:16,799 --> 00:22:20,720
at one thirty, nine but their isolated powers are one seventy.

442
00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:23,640
Eight it's the babbit that's been carrying. Them, uh they

443
00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:25,960
along With San. Diego San diego's got a three thirty

444
00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:28,680
seven babbit and they In toronto has a three thirty.

445
00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:32,880
Eight so the babbit yesterday caught up to, him and

446
00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:34,680
they caught up to him in a. Hurry they did

447
00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:37,519
not hate with the runners of scoring. Position it was

448
00:22:37,559 --> 00:22:39,559
just an ugly game For toronto and they did it

449
00:22:39,599 --> 00:22:42,279
against The baltimore pitching staff who hasn't shut down anybody

450
00:22:42,319 --> 00:22:47,319
all year. Long so, uh to, me that's a sign

451
00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:51,640
saying That toronto has. Peaked and now we've got to

452
00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:55,079
look for reasons to play against, them and because they've

453
00:22:55,079 --> 00:22:57,480
done so, well we're going to get some pretty good

454
00:22:57,559 --> 00:23:00,200
numbers going against them in the next few. Days is,

455
00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:05,759
HERE i believe we're looking At burios going For. Toronto

456
00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:08,160
he's a three point eight one excuse, me three point

457
00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:12,119
eight THREE era four point five seven expected one point

458
00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:15,279
twenty five. Whip he's a guy AND i mentioned this,

459
00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:19,920
before for the most, part every year in his last you,

460
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:23,119
know five or six, years he's outperformed he's EXPECTED. Era

461
00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:25,680
that's just part of what he. Does he's able to

462
00:23:25,720 --> 00:23:29,000
get people. Out but it's still an ugly. Profile when

463
00:23:29,039 --> 00:23:31,440
you're looking at the Stack gass, page there's no. Red

464
00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:33,839
they either had red for, good blue for, bad and

465
00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:37,680
everything is. BLUE i have lost a lot of money

466
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:40,839
going Against burrios over the years because of his numbers

467
00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:43,880
similar to. This but you're going to find some outliers

468
00:23:44,839 --> 00:23:47,319
all the time when you're looking at the stats like,

469
00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:51,079
this and he's a guy That i'm dumbfounded WHEN i

470
00:23:51,079 --> 00:23:52,680
play on him against, HIM i don't have a lot of,

471
00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:55,720
success so chances ARE i won't be involved with this

472
00:23:55,799 --> 00:23:59,160
one granmar four point two THREE era three point nine

473
00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:03,039
to four expected one point twenty five. Whip he's really.

474
00:24:03,039 --> 00:24:06,039
Good it hard to hit percentage eighty fourth, percentile walk

475
00:24:06,039 --> 00:24:09,960
great seventy, ninth averageexsvelasses seventy. Six but he's not gonna

476
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:12,759
get you a lot of strikeouts thirty through thirty second

477
00:24:12,799 --> 00:24:17,720
percent hele strikeouts eighteenth and whiff extension only the twenty.

478
00:24:17,799 --> 00:24:21,160
Third he's six ft two and yet he doesn't have much.

479
00:24:21,279 --> 00:24:26,559
Extension his strikeout minds walk ratio is thirteen point three

480
00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:30,240
less than what we. Want SO i would normally take

481
00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:31,880
a look at this and look to play the over

482
00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:36,319
BUT i won't hear because it is an early early

483
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:38,880
get getaway game goes off at like twelve thirty Five,

484
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:44,599
eastern coming off that. Doubleheader, yeah you would find you

485
00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:47,119
would normally find the bullpens a little bit worn. Out

486
00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:49,880
BUT i don't know IF i want about the over,

487
00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:51,400
Here i'm gonna pass.

488
00:24:52,759 --> 00:24:54,799
Speaker 4: Guys do us all a favor and go To waija

489
00:24:54,799 --> 00:24:57,839
talk dot com and check our pages out because we

490
00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:02,039
put three plays up almost every, day AND i have

491
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:06,039
MY mlb play out already for, today so go check.

492
00:25:06,079 --> 00:25:09,240
IT i have my picture projections downloadable for free as,

493
00:25:09,279 --> 00:25:13,480
well so check that. Out take five seconds comment on

494
00:25:13,519 --> 00:25:17,839
the replay as. Well WHEN i cap, GAMES i like

495
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:21,759
to look at stats that kind of pop, out and

496
00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:25,680
one stat WHEN i went over this game that really

497
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:29,599
pops out is how bad these batters just cracked the

498
00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:34,200
hell out Of. Barrios His his stats against these batters are,

499
00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:38,240
atrocious AND i have him ranked twenty five out of

500
00:25:38,279 --> 00:25:41,359
thirty on a curve of thirty out of all. Pitchers

501
00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:45,119
SO i can see The orioles just jumping all over

502
00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:48,000
him in this. Game he's got a three oh nine average.

503
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:50,880
Against he's got almost one hundred more than one hundred

504
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:53,599
at bats. AGAINST i THINK i don't have the number

505
00:25:53,599 --> 00:25:55,119
in front of, me BUT i remember it was one

506
00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:58,559
hundred something three oh nine average against in a nine

507
00:25:58,599 --> 00:26:01,880
to ten. Ops, again just hammer the crap out of. Him,

508
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:06,079
so if, Anything i'd like to do A baltimore team

509
00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:09,359
total over but four and a. Half it's tough to

510
00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:11,519
play a four and a half over because they got

511
00:26:11,519 --> 00:26:15,799
to score five, runs and that's you, know you gotta.

512
00:26:15,839 --> 00:26:18,039
Score you gotta be on a pace of one run

513
00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:20,480
every two, innings and that's a heck of a pace

514
00:26:20,519 --> 00:26:23,200
to keep up. With or you gotta get him in.

515
00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:26,079
Bunches so four and a half seems really. HIGH i don't.

516
00:26:26,079 --> 00:26:29,079
Know game total ten seems a little high as, well

517
00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:33,079
but that stat really jumped out at. Me so Somehow

518
00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:37,039
i'd like to take the The. Burrios Maybe i'll bet

519
00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:40,799
his earned runs over two and a, half Or i'll

520
00:26:40,839 --> 00:26:43,279
take his hits over six and a half or. Something

521
00:26:43,319 --> 00:26:46,519
i'll find some way to bet burrios in this one

522
00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:47,640
to get.

523
00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:52,839
Speaker 3: Cracked Hey, brandon, yeah is it? POSSIBLE i know you

524
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:55,000
like to do the run hits. Errors is there a

525
00:26:55,079 --> 00:26:58,480
guy that is really gone off on him For? Baltimore

526
00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:00,799
that may be a different to look at it?

527
00:27:01,559 --> 00:27:07,480
Speaker 4: Exactly who was? It was? It let me take a look. Here,

528
00:27:07,599 --> 00:27:11,920
yeah the guy who has really cracked him pretty well

529
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:15,559
Is ryan. O'Hearn so his hits runs RBIs over one

530
00:27:15,559 --> 00:27:17,319
and a half might be a way to. Go he's

531
00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:20,160
twelve of thirty. Seven he's got a nine to thirty

532
00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:24,559
ONE ops in a three twenty four average. Against looks

533
00:27:24,599 --> 00:27:27,680
like he's been doing most of the. Damage Gunner henderson

534
00:27:27,759 --> 00:27:31,279
is always a good hits runs RBI's guys to take

535
00:27:31,319 --> 00:27:34,119
a guy to take because he's always on a hits,

536
00:27:34,279 --> 00:27:39,240
streak AND i think his HIS ops is somewhere eight hundred.

537
00:27:39,319 --> 00:27:42,160
Plus So Gunnar henderson's always a good. Guy BUT i

538
00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:44,799
would do O'Hearn in this. One IF i was going

539
00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:45,319
to do that.

540
00:27:45,279 --> 00:27:48,839
Speaker 1: Bad i'm gonna read someone tweeted at.

541
00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:52,359
Speaker 2: Me uh it was actually a comment on SO i

542
00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:55,640
POSTED i post my plays every, day win or loss To,

543
00:27:55,759 --> 00:27:58,759
twitter AND i posted my Two Blue jays losses, yesterday

544
00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:01,559
and And he's, says you, know, essentially it was, like, oh,

545
00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:03,960
now now you can just play the game The jays again.

546
00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:06,759
Today i've already got the right up for. You they

547
00:28:06,799 --> 00:28:10,920
can't possibly lose. Again, LISTEN i Don't that is not

548
00:28:11,599 --> 00:28:15,839
how you should ever handicap. Baseball AND i don't think

549
00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:18,720
i've ever like just BECAUSE i played them in two

550
00:28:18,799 --> 00:28:19,400
legs of the double.

551
00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:20,599
Speaker 1: Header that was never my.

552
00:28:20,759 --> 00:28:23,759
Speaker 2: Rationale AND i actually liked The orioles today and the

553
00:28:23,839 --> 00:28:26,799
reason and it plays off of some of the Stuff

554
00:28:26,799 --> 00:28:29,559
Tokyo braindon just talked. About the REASON i was taking

555
00:28:29,559 --> 00:28:31,559
a position on The Blue jays yesterday IS i had

556
00:28:31,839 --> 00:28:34,559
two left handed starters in the double, header AND i

557
00:28:34,559 --> 00:28:37,319
Thought Easton lucas would throw. Better you, know can't win them.

558
00:28:37,319 --> 00:28:39,920
ALL i thought he would come out shut him down

559
00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:43,240
for three. Innings he couldn't find the. Zone The orioles

560
00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:46,599
crush right handed, pitching and at home the splits are

561
00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:49,039
even more. Drastic so why WOULD i want any part

562
00:28:49,079 --> 00:28:51,200
of The Blue jays today when you have when you

563
00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:52,799
have a right handed pitcher on the, mound and The

564
00:28:52,799 --> 00:28:56,039
orioles just absolutely crushed right handed pitching at. Home the answer,

565
00:28:56,079 --> 00:28:58,119
IS i. Don't it would Be orioles or passed for me.

566
00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:01,359
Here now DO i want The orioles knowing that one

567
00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:03,920
of their relievers walked over to the other dugout, Yesterday

568
00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:06,200
Sir Anthony, Demingez so they don't have, him and they've

569
00:29:06,279 --> 00:29:08,359
used a couple of. Relievers the back end of this

570
00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:10,920
game might get a little sketchy for The orioles because

571
00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:13,359
they just they've had injuries in the pullpen as it.

572
00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:16,359
Is BUT i want absolutely no part of The Blue

573
00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:18,839
jays in this, game And i'm WITH. Tv it would

574
00:29:18,839 --> 00:29:21,559
Be orioles or pass finding a way to get on

575
00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:25,480
The orioles to score, runs or pass because the only

576
00:29:25,519 --> 00:29:27,519
THING i can look at this game and confidently say

577
00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:33,000
is that The orioles should should Hit barrios because this

578
00:29:33,039 --> 00:29:35,640
is the profile of pitcher that this team just lights.

579
00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:35,839
Speaker 1: Up.

580
00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:38,920
Speaker 2: Now andrew, mckinnis that's our. Guy he's in the chat

581
00:29:39,319 --> 00:29:42,359
what's up to, mckinnis appreciate you tuning. In he is

582
00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:46,039
a die Hard Blue jays, fan and so he makes

583
00:29:46,039 --> 00:29:47,960
a great point Because i've noticed it with this team for.

584
00:29:48,119 --> 00:29:51,000
Years he, says This jay's team is so emotional it

585
00:29:51,039 --> 00:29:53,480
pisses me off as a. Fan guys are either, smiling

586
00:29:53,799 --> 00:29:55,960
dancing around having, fun or they looked rattled and.

587
00:29:56,000 --> 00:29:57,200
Speaker 1: Frustrated there's never an in.

588
00:29:57,240 --> 00:29:59,759
Speaker 2: Between, yeah that was one of the biggest criticisms of

589
00:29:59,799 --> 00:30:03,720
the of the bashett, Vlag like this team that's supposed

590
00:30:03,759 --> 00:30:05,799
to do all these great things the last few, years

591
00:30:06,039 --> 00:30:09,720
they are they when things start to go, bad they

592
00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:12,799
don't know how to get themselves out of, it, Really

593
00:30:13,079 --> 00:30:15,359
and it hasn't really come up this year because things

594
00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:17,480
have been running really good for, Them but in years

595
00:30:17,519 --> 00:30:20,200
past that has been like the sort of like the

596
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:24,839
main thing where it's just like they look miserable and

597
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:27,519
that the heads are, down they're hanging their, heads and

598
00:30:27,599 --> 00:30:30,279
it's like that's WHAT i saw for for eighteen. Innings,

599
00:30:30,359 --> 00:30:34,160
YESTERDAY i had the misfortune of watching eighteen innings Of

600
00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:37,720
Blue Jays baseball yesterday where they just. Couldn't they looked

601
00:30:38,119 --> 00:30:42,160
exactly what mckinnis is pointing. Out how do they carry

602
00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:44,400
that into This how do they get up, today play

603
00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:47,720
a noon game and shake? That that's the. QUESTION i

604
00:30:47,720 --> 00:30:50,039
don't think they. Do that's MY i don't THINK i

605
00:30:50,039 --> 00:30:51,000
can bet, it BUT i don't think they.

606
00:30:51,079 --> 00:30:51,599
Speaker 1: Do brian go.

607
00:30:51,599 --> 00:30:56,680
Speaker 3: Ahead it's interesting that that's been said with a team

608
00:30:56,720 --> 00:31:01,759
that Has Max scherzer on the. TEAM. Matc schurzer is

609
00:31:01,799 --> 00:31:06,960
the most bulldog type of guy you can ask. For

610
00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:10,480
he should be the. Guy it's, no it's not his

611
00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:12,960
his spot for being a pitcher on this, team but

612
00:31:13,079 --> 00:31:14,920
he's got to be the guy that comes out and

613
00:31:15,000 --> 00:31:17,119
just yells at him, say, hey we haven't won this game,

614
00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:21,079
yet and it's it's strange to have somebody like him

615
00:31:21,079 --> 00:31:24,160
out there who like some people don't even want to

616
00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:27,240
come near him when he's pitching because he'll bite their hat,

617
00:31:27,279 --> 00:31:31,119
off and that that's just something that he needs to

618
00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:34,960
come out and do, something because it's CLEARLY i. AGREE

619
00:31:35,039 --> 00:31:37,920
i WATCH i watched this team, play AND i Love Gladdy.

620
00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:41,559
Junior Glady, junior but he is very happy go lucky

621
00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:45,079
kind of, guy and, yeah they need somebody to kick

622
00:31:45,119 --> 00:31:46,839
some ass. There maybe it's the manager's.

623
00:31:46,839 --> 00:31:49,319
Speaker 1: Fault it's such a good point by.

624
00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:54,720
Speaker 2: Mckinnis, Honestly boba schet like it looks last, night he

625
00:31:54,759 --> 00:31:56,960
looked like my nine year old, nephew where like we're

626
00:31:56,960 --> 00:31:59,240
throwing in the backyard AND i could tell it's like

627
00:31:59,279 --> 00:32:01,519
probably time For Freeze pop to take a break because

628
00:32:01,559 --> 00:32:04,200
he's not focused. Anymore he swung at a three to

629
00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:07,079
two pitch that was at his eyes to end the

630
00:32:07,119 --> 00:32:10,440
game last, night like and that to, me and he

631
00:32:10,480 --> 00:32:12,880
went on for, five, Right so he went on for. Five,

632
00:32:12,920 --> 00:32:15,680
Tokyo brandon's so disgusted at, it he just. Left he,

633
00:32:15,759 --> 00:32:18,519
went but he we'll probably get him right. Back the

634
00:32:18,559 --> 00:32:20,880
point is he. Went he was zero for, Five and

635
00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:23,119
that's what mckinnis is talking. About and the reason that

636
00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:26,720
we're still talking about it here is BECAUSE i think

637
00:32:26,799 --> 00:32:29,200
that's your handicapped for this. Game if you like The

638
00:32:29,200 --> 00:32:32,720
orioles and you like how the stuff lines up for,

639
00:32:32,759 --> 00:32:35,839
them you gotta like the spot from a mental, standpoint

640
00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:39,359
because it's really tough to shape that playing a day

641
00:32:39,400 --> 00:32:41,440
game after a double, Header like how are you gonna

642
00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:44,599
shake how you were sort of feeling yesterday that, quickly

643
00:32:45,039 --> 00:32:47,960
and it's, like, AGAIN i just don't know IF i

644
00:32:48,079 --> 00:32:52,160
have the guts to play The orioles a day AFTER

645
00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:53,119
i played The Blue jays.

646
00:32:53,119 --> 00:32:55,400
Speaker 1: Twice But i'm not telling you not to do.

647
00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:57,680
Speaker 2: It i'm just, saying like that WOULD i might go

648
00:32:57,799 --> 00:33:01,519
into a mental tailspin IF i play The orioles today

649
00:33:01,559 --> 00:33:03,759
and The Blue jays come out and. Win but if

650
00:33:03,799 --> 00:33:06,880
you didn't get involved in a doubleheader, yesterday more power to.

651
00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:08,480
YOU i THINK i think you have to look at The.

652
00:33:08,519 --> 00:33:12,319
Orioles all, RIGHT, tv you're. Back so we we lost

653
00:33:12,319 --> 00:33:12,720
it there for a.

654
00:33:12,759 --> 00:33:12,960
Speaker 1: Sec.

655
00:33:13,960 --> 00:33:17,079
Speaker 4: YEAH i switched on MY vpn and they cut me.

656
00:33:17,119 --> 00:33:20,359
Speaker 1: Off that's that's no. Problem do You?

657
00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:23,240
Speaker 2: Uh do you want TO i saw you throw a

658
00:33:23,599 --> 00:33:25,519
something into our slack. Chat do you want to bring

659
00:33:25,519 --> 00:33:27,160
that up right? NOW i think it's a good spot

660
00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:28,720
to break up the talk about.

661
00:33:28,759 --> 00:33:32,759
Speaker 4: That so this is pertaining to The Tigers diamondbacks. Game,

662
00:33:33,559 --> 00:33:36,359
uh and let's, see let me get my time stamp.

663
00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:41,359
Here we're at thirty, three thirty, Six, Okay SO i

664
00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:45,799
WANT I So i've been watching, baseball scouting, baseball following

665
00:33:45,799 --> 00:33:48,960
baseball for quite a long, time AND i still can't

666
00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:54,759
figure out. Why Number one two, questions why do pitchers

667
00:33:55,000 --> 00:33:58,640
Almost i'd say ninety percent of them have better stats at?

668
00:33:58,640 --> 00:34:02,200
Home why is because they're comfortable in the. Park is

669
00:34:02,200 --> 00:34:04,279
it because that's the park they practice?

670
00:34:04,319 --> 00:34:05,440
Speaker 1: In maybe that's.

671
00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:08,239
Speaker 4: It maybe you guys have some other answer to, that

672
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:10,440
but that's the only THING i can think. Of and number,

673
00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:14,239
two for a guy Like paddock today who's making his

674
00:34:14,239 --> 00:34:18,199
first start with The tigers after getting, traded now his

675
00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:21,159
home Is detroit, now so does that mean he's going

676
00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:23,440
to pitch better At detroit even though it's a foreign

677
00:34:23,480 --> 00:34:26,599
ballpark to? Him so how do you approach? That SO

678
00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:29,159
i have no answer for. That SO i really don't.

679
00:34:29,199 --> 00:34:32,280
Know so let's Get brian's thoughts on that WHILE i

680
00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:33,119
punch in these.

681
00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:39,400
Speaker 3: Timestamps, well first of, all everybody feels better at. Home

682
00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:42,559
if you follow the other, sports your teams do better

683
00:34:42,599 --> 00:34:44,639
at home than they do on the. Road so it's

684
00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:47,159
just not the. Pitchers the hitters usually hit better at.

685
00:34:47,159 --> 00:34:51,280
Home you're used to that. Situation you feel, Comfortable, hey

686
00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:54,079
you know nobody wants to be, booed and you know

687
00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:56,599
stuff thrown at you and call the all names or,

688
00:34:56,599 --> 00:34:59,559
whatever and unless you live In philadelphia Or New, york

689
00:35:00,079 --> 00:35:05,199
doesn't happen at. Home but it's a situation where you

690
00:35:05,199 --> 00:35:07,760
feel more comfortable. There and in, baseball for the starting, pitchers,

691
00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:09,559
obviously the mound has a lot to do with. It

692
00:35:10,679 --> 00:35:15,760
you your grounds crew knows how you like the, mount

693
00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:18,480
so when you start at, home they kind of tend

694
00:35:18,519 --> 00:35:23,039
it to to be what you want it to. BE

695
00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:25,119
i don't know if that's going to have an effect

696
00:35:25,119 --> 00:35:28,639
On paddick here unless he's gotten together already with with

697
00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:31,599
the grounds crew In detroit and talked about. That but

698
00:35:32,159 --> 00:35:34,880
that's basically what it. Is and your younger, players And

699
00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:37,719
i've said this in every, sport your younger players all

700
00:35:37,760 --> 00:35:40,119
feel better playing at home than they do on the.

701
00:35:40,199 --> 00:35:43,360
Road sometimes they get intimidated on the. Road so, yeah

702
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:45,079
a lot of reasons for, it but it's the same

703
00:35:45,119 --> 00:35:48,360
in every, sport every Sport i've ever, followed your home

704
00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:49,920
team wins more than it does on the.

705
00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:53,480
Speaker 1: Road let's stay on this.

706
00:35:53,559 --> 00:35:57,760
Speaker 2: Topic let's let's go right into the game That paddock

707
00:35:57,760 --> 00:36:01,920
will be pitching today in his new Home America, park.

708
00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:04,679
Speaker 1: And So i'll go To brian.

709
00:36:04,800 --> 00:36:07,159
Speaker 2: First BUT i just want to say, that, LIKE i,

710
00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:09,639
understand AND i like the trade for The tigers. HERE

711
00:36:09,679 --> 00:36:11,360
i think they're GONNA i think you're gonna see The

712
00:36:11,400 --> 00:36:15,039
tigers get away from like the bullpen game every fifth day.

713
00:36:15,119 --> 00:36:17,840
THING i just don't think it's been as effective as

714
00:36:17,840 --> 00:36:20,280
it was toward the end of last. YEAR i think

715
00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:22,800
for a number of, reasons they just they're not a

716
00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:25,400
lot as locked in as a unit this, year and

717
00:36:25,440 --> 00:36:28,719
SO i just think The pinch probably looked at his

718
00:36:28,800 --> 00:36:31,760
team and was, like, Man i'm really taxing the bullpen

719
00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:35,000
every fifth, day and it's, like we've got guys that

720
00:36:35,039 --> 00:36:38,039
aren't super. Sharp there's guys that were big contributors last,

721
00:36:38,119 --> 00:36:41,079
year Like Brisk brisky comes to, mind like not having

722
00:36:41,079 --> 00:36:43,599
as good of a. Season there's a couple. Others SO

723
00:36:44,000 --> 00:36:47,480
i think that was the basis for this. MOVE i

724
00:36:47,480 --> 00:36:49,960
don't hate. It paddick's been. Okay it's not like Someone

725
00:36:49,960 --> 00:36:52,480
i'm not rushing to back him, Here Brian. Leonard BUT

726
00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:54,800
i don't mind the move for The, tigers AND i

727
00:36:54,840 --> 00:36:57,239
do still think we're In tiger's uptick that we talked

728
00:36:57,239 --> 00:37:00,960
about earlier late last, week earlier this, week they're starting

729
00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:03,679
to bounce back from that LULL i don't necessarily want

730
00:37:03,679 --> 00:37:05,039
to get in front of them. Either so how are

731
00:37:05,079 --> 00:37:08,079
you Seeing Nelson? Paddock just from a matchup, Standpoint.

732
00:37:07,599 --> 00:37:10,039
Speaker 3: Well the reason why they brought In paddick is Because

733
00:37:10,199 --> 00:37:17,000
Reese olsen is now out for the. Season it came

734
00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:19,719
out of no way really because they didn't even say

735
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:23,639
he was really majorly. HURT i know when last, time

736
00:37:24,239 --> 00:37:26,559
last time they, PLAYED i Played detroit and he looked

737
00:37:26,599 --> 00:37:28,119
really good and then all of a sudden he fell.

738
00:37:28,199 --> 00:37:31,519
Apart that was when his arms bother him a little,

739
00:37:31,519 --> 00:37:34,119
bit and so we just assumed he'd missed his next

740
00:37:34,159 --> 00:37:37,239
start and come. Back And olsen is a really good.

741
00:37:37,280 --> 00:37:40,760
Pitcher he's injured a, lot but when he, pitches he's very.

742
00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:44,480
Good and once they announced that he was, out they

743
00:37:44,519 --> 00:37:47,119
needed to fill, somebody find somebody to come in and

744
00:37:47,199 --> 00:37:50,519
fill those. Innings and from The minnesota, standpoint they were

745
00:37:50,519 --> 00:37:52,960
looking to get rid Of. Paddock they have younger players

746
00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:56,039
they'd like to put in, there and it's getting to

747
00:37:56,079 --> 00:37:59,760
the point in the season now With minnesota where they're

748
00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:01,960
not going to win the division AND i want to

749
00:38:02,000 --> 00:38:04,400
see what they can get out, of you, Know matthews

750
00:38:04,400 --> 00:38:06,159
and some of the other guys they've got down there

751
00:38:06,159 --> 00:38:08,800
in the pitching. Staff SO i worked out well for both.

752
00:38:08,840 --> 00:38:13,800
Teams paddock pitching today at home Against nelson For. Arizona

753
00:38:13,920 --> 00:38:16,880
we're looking about a one thirty Favorite Fort, detroit a

754
00:38:16,920 --> 00:38:20,800
total of. Nine Ryan nelson's been very good as of.

755
00:38:20,920 --> 00:38:24,639
Late he's been probably the best pitcher on this. Team

756
00:38:25,199 --> 00:38:27,039
he comes in with a three point twenty NINE era

757
00:38:27,239 --> 00:38:29,960
on the, season three point nine to nine expected one

758
00:38:30,000 --> 00:38:32,639
point zero two. Whip that's what he's been much better

759
00:38:32,679 --> 00:38:35,239
at this year is he's really cutting down on. That

760
00:38:35,320 --> 00:38:37,800
but you, know his extension really. Helps he's six foot,

761
00:38:37,800 --> 00:38:41,960
three it's eighty fifth percentile and, extension but he still has.

762
00:38:42,039 --> 00:38:45,800
Problems his average ex velocity is the thirteenth, percentile chase

763
00:38:45,880 --> 00:38:50,199
rate twenty first with rate. Thirteenth his numbers have been really,

764
00:38:50,199 --> 00:38:55,480
good but he may be about due for you, know

765
00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:59,599
for a regression candidate right. There Chris paddock four point ninety,

766
00:38:59,639 --> 00:39:03,079
five four point six to three expected one point two eight.

767
00:39:03,079 --> 00:39:05,760
Whip he's had allows you whip the last three years

768
00:39:05,760 --> 00:39:08,000
one point four h one point three, nine one point two.

769
00:39:08,119 --> 00:39:12,159
Eight he's not a big strikeout. Guy he's going one

770
00:39:12,199 --> 00:39:14,320
hundred and eleven innings this, year only has eighty three.

771
00:39:14,360 --> 00:39:19,639
Strikeouts his four scenery throws forty six percent of the,

772
00:39:19,679 --> 00:39:22,960
time and yet it's about one full mile an hour

773
00:39:23,119 --> 00:39:26,119
lower than the average right Handr he's of ninety three point.

774
00:39:26,159 --> 00:39:29,480
Eight he does throw six, pitches but his cutter in his,

775
00:39:29,559 --> 00:39:31,840
sinker he only throws less than ten percent of the.

776
00:39:31,840 --> 00:39:34,719
Time he's not the kind of guy, like if you're

777
00:39:34,719 --> 00:39:36,679
going to throw the four singer is your number one,

778
00:39:36,679 --> 00:39:39,039
pitch you better be better than the league. Average he's

779
00:39:39,079 --> 00:39:42,159
worse than the league. Average his extense is. Great he's

780
00:39:42,159 --> 00:39:45,960
six foot, five ninety second percentile walk percentage has been

781
00:39:46,039 --> 00:39:49,480
very good eighty seventh percentle chase rate eighty, six but

782
00:39:50,199 --> 00:39:54,000
struck out right nineteenth wh whipp for right twenty, first

783
00:39:54,239 --> 00:39:56,800
hard hit rate twenty, six ground ball rate twenty. Six

784
00:39:58,239 --> 00:40:00,760
pitching in this, one this ballpark will help. Him it's

785
00:40:01,119 --> 00:40:04,280
better pitching ballpark Than minnesota. Is this is one of

786
00:40:04,320 --> 00:40:07,880
the best pitching park ballparks in. Baseball But i'm not

787
00:40:08,000 --> 00:40:10,880
sure he's going to be a great fit. Here if

788
00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:13,039
you look at what these two teams have done over

789
00:40:13,079 --> 00:40:14,639
the last, month hitting, wise.

790
00:40:16,440 --> 00:40:16,679
Speaker 1: We Have.

791
00:40:18,159 --> 00:40:24,559
Speaker 3: Detroit And. Arizona arizona right now is twenty eighth IN

792
00:40:24,760 --> 00:40:28,239
wrc plus with an eighty one THERE bab it's about

793
00:40:28,239 --> 00:40:31,360
two eighty five isolated power one thirty, five so they're

794
00:40:31,360 --> 00:40:34,719
not really hitting right. Now And, detroit believe it or,

795
00:40:34,760 --> 00:40:38,519
not our second worst the last month IN wrc plus

796
00:40:38,519 --> 00:40:42,880
it's an Eighty THEIR babeb is two eighty, eight so

797
00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:45,320
they're they're about league, average maybe a little bit under

798
00:40:45,360 --> 00:40:48,159
in that, regard but two teams that aren't hitting very

799
00:40:48,159 --> 00:40:51,119
well right. Now we'll see if it turns. Around detroit

800
00:40:51,159 --> 00:40:56,440
to get their big bopper, back so that that should

801
00:40:56,480 --> 00:40:59,119
help the lineup in the lineup looks deeper now than

802
00:40:59,119 --> 00:41:01,559
it was, before so they're getting back to what they

803
00:41:01,559 --> 00:41:03,719
were earlier in the season when they had a lot

804
00:41:03,719 --> 00:41:08,440
of healthy. Players BUT i don't want to go over

805
00:41:08,519 --> 00:41:13,199
a nine In. Detroit they're more of a good pitching,

806
00:41:13,239 --> 00:41:16,119
ballpark AND i think the bullpen For detroit is very good,

807
00:41:16,119 --> 00:41:20,440
Too so slightly Herewith, detroit but not enough to get.

808
00:41:20,480 --> 00:41:24,119
Speaker 4: Involved, Yeah i'll make this one real quick BECAUSE i

809
00:41:24,239 --> 00:41:31,440
was talking about the home. Stuff so Ran nelson is

810
00:41:31,559 --> 00:41:34,800
ranked pretty high according to my. Numbers In arizona has

811
00:41:34,840 --> 00:41:38,440
a slight advantage with the. Bullpen paddock ranked very low

812
00:41:38,480 --> 00:41:40,599
in my, numbers AND i agree With brian And Ryan

813
00:41:40,679 --> 00:41:45,039
nelson will probably see a little regression from. Him one

814
00:41:45,079 --> 00:41:48,480
frightening statistic that pops out WHEN i looked over this

815
00:41:48,599 --> 00:41:52,239
game is the fact that in his, Career Ryan nelson

816
00:41:52,280 --> 00:41:54,400
has a three point fifty three average against and a

817
00:41:54,599 --> 00:42:00,559
nine eight ops against versus These detroit. Batters, now If

818
00:42:00,599 --> 00:42:04,000
detroit were ranked fifteen or higher in, BATTING i would

819
00:42:04,079 --> 00:42:06,360
jump all over their team total just because of, that

820
00:42:06,559 --> 00:42:11,679
or even their total in the first. Five But detroit ice,

821
00:42:11,760 --> 00:42:16,880
Cold arizona's ice cold as. WELL i Think detroit started

822
00:42:16,920 --> 00:42:19,519
to show signs of breaking out in their last, game

823
00:42:19,719 --> 00:42:24,719
If i'm not. Mistaken but, still it's just it's just

824
00:42:24,760 --> 00:42:28,840
a little TOO i don't. KNOW i, Mean i'd like

825
00:42:28,880 --> 00:42:33,599
to Approach detroit's over. Somehow SO i looked at the

826
00:42:33,639 --> 00:42:36,760
first first five inning team total and it's two and a,

827
00:42:36,800 --> 00:42:39,719
half and you, know betting on them to score three

828
00:42:39,800 --> 00:42:42,280
runs when the ranks twenty eight out of thirty teams

829
00:42:42,280 --> 00:42:45,280
in the in current form is just too much of

830
00:42:45,320 --> 00:42:47,480
a stretch for. Me i'd like to go With, detroit

831
00:42:47,519 --> 00:42:49,079
BUT i JUST i. CAN'T i can't get.

832
00:42:49,079 --> 00:42:54,639
Speaker 2: There, YEAH i don't particularly care For, paddock SO i

833
00:42:55,119 --> 00:42:57,880
want to CLARIFY i think it was the right move

834
00:42:57,920 --> 00:43:01,639
from like a like team structure. Point for, NOW i

835
00:43:01,719 --> 00:43:04,239
don't expect him to be anything more than just sort

836
00:43:04,239 --> 00:43:08,519
of like an innings type, guy fifth, Starter like they're

837
00:43:08,519 --> 00:43:10,199
not gonna run him out there in a playoff. Game

838
00:43:10,280 --> 00:43:12,920
he's more, there like you, know The tigers can they

839
00:43:12,960 --> 00:43:15,239
really can cruise control their way to a division, Title

840
00:43:15,519 --> 00:43:18,119
like they just need someone to go out every fifth,

841
00:43:18,199 --> 00:43:19,920
day give him five to six innings so they don't

842
00:43:19,960 --> 00:43:23,400
cook the. Bullpen sean in the, chat he was pointing

843
00:43:23,400 --> 00:43:26,440
out the you know The, tigers how they've outscored The,

844
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:29,239
Diamondbacks LIKE i think The tigers probably hit. Here SO

845
00:43:29,599 --> 00:43:31,280
i actually do like the. OVER i think eight and

846
00:43:31,320 --> 00:43:34,119
a half is a little bit. LOW i do Expect

847
00:43:34,239 --> 00:43:37,000
arizona to do something Against, paddock BECAUSE i just. DON'T

848
00:43:37,440 --> 00:43:39,800
i think it's unrealistic to think That paddock's just gonna

849
00:43:39,800 --> 00:43:42,440
come in here and just wipe them out for six seven.

850
00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:45,599
Innings so we'll call It arizona gets two or three,

851
00:43:45,679 --> 00:43:48,599
runs maybe maybe they add one off The tigers, bullpen who.

852
00:43:48,639 --> 00:43:51,840
Knows BUT i actually think The tigers could get To nelson. Here,

853
00:43:51,840 --> 00:43:54,280
NOW i don't know what kind of Sample nelson has

854
00:43:54,280 --> 00:43:55,880
against The TIGERS tv you referenced.

855
00:43:55,920 --> 00:43:57,800
Speaker 1: IT i can't imagine it's that. BIG i. DON'T i

856
00:43:57,840 --> 00:44:00,320
don't think he's seen The tigers a ton out his.

857
00:44:00,400 --> 00:44:04,159
Speaker 2: Career BUT i, do, WELL i mean it's he's he

858
00:44:04,199 --> 00:44:06,519
plays in the in the a different like They how

859
00:44:06,519 --> 00:44:08,760
many times have they faced in the last couple of.

860
00:44:08,800 --> 00:44:09,679
Speaker 1: Years probably not that.

861
00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:13,599
Speaker 2: Many, HOWEVER i, agree, yeah, LIKE i do agree That

862
00:44:13,639 --> 00:44:17,480
nelson's gonna have possibly some. Regression he's a he's a

863
00:44:17,480 --> 00:44:19,480
guy that doesn't really have a great second or third.

864
00:44:19,519 --> 00:44:22,000
Pitch so it's a really nice, fastball the second or

865
00:44:22,039 --> 00:44:25,239
third pitch is isn't great at this, point and when

866
00:44:25,239 --> 00:44:28,559
The tigers start to, Click brian mentioned Carry bonds is

867
00:44:28,599 --> 00:44:31,719
back Carry, carpenter so that helps. Them what The tigers

868
00:44:31,760 --> 00:44:34,639
start to, click they really start to, like you, know

869
00:44:34,679 --> 00:44:37,519
they really start to expose a guy Like, nelson who

870
00:44:38,119 --> 00:44:39,760
you know doesn't have a great second or third.

871
00:44:39,800 --> 00:44:42,880
Speaker 1: Pitch all of a, sudden his fastball is not as.

872
00:44:42,880 --> 00:44:45,719
Speaker 2: Effective tigers get some base, runners they're taking, it they're

873
00:44:45,760 --> 00:44:48,079
running first to. Third they don't when The tigers are playing,

874
00:44:48,119 --> 00:44:50,719
well those are the things they do. Regularly it's what

875
00:44:50,760 --> 00:44:53,639
we basically saw them do for three, months and then

876
00:44:53,639 --> 00:44:55,760
they had a two week lull where they had a

877
00:44:55,760 --> 00:44:57,000
couple of guys go to The All Star.

878
00:44:57,079 --> 00:44:59,320
Speaker 1: Game then they were. Tired then it just like all

879
00:44:59,400 --> 00:45:00,559
kind of went rye for a.

880
00:45:00,599 --> 00:45:02,880
Speaker 2: Minute but NOW i think The tigers are back to

881
00:45:02,920 --> 00:45:05,280
being The tigers that they weren't for the first three.

882
00:45:05,320 --> 00:45:07,840
MONTHS i expect them to score, today AND i do

883
00:45:07,920 --> 00:45:11,280
think we see The diamondbacks do something that this offense

884
00:45:11,280 --> 00:45:13,519
has to wake up at some. POINT i Think paddock

885
00:45:13,599 --> 00:45:15,679
might be a nice uh you, know might be the

886
00:45:15,679 --> 00:45:17,599
guy to wake them up a little. Bit so eight

887
00:45:17,599 --> 00:45:19,360
and a half for me is about a run off

888
00:45:19,360 --> 00:45:21,000
of WHERE i think, this but maybe a half run

889
00:45:21,039 --> 00:45:23,079
off WHERE i have this. TOTAL i THINK i made

890
00:45:23,119 --> 00:45:26,280
it like nine point, One but that's also a key

891
00:45:26,360 --> 00:45:28,159
number when you're talking. Totals you, know eight and a

892
00:45:28,159 --> 00:45:31,320
half supposed to. Nine SO i like the over, again

893
00:45:31,880 --> 00:45:34,800
considering it for the. Parlay but what we'll lock stuff

894
00:45:34,800 --> 00:45:36,679
in over the next fifteen. Minutes go, Ahead, Brian.

895
00:45:36,840 --> 00:45:41,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, arizona you tried nine slightly to the over all

896
00:45:41,400 --> 00:45:42,320
over across the, Board i'm not.

897
00:45:42,320 --> 00:45:43,039
Speaker 1: Seeing oh so that.

898
00:45:43,079 --> 00:45:44,760
Speaker 2: Moves so that took some money, then because WHEN i

899
00:45:44,840 --> 00:45:47,000
WHEN i wrote WHEN i was johtting stuff down pre,

900
00:45:47,119 --> 00:45:48,760
show it was eight and a, half so that someone

901
00:45:48,840 --> 00:45:53,760
else must someone else must be looking at that as.

902
00:45:53,800 --> 00:45:58,880
Speaker 1: Well. Interesting all, right so we'll So i'll go To,

903
00:45:58,920 --> 00:46:00,119
brian do you have ANY i?

904
00:46:00,119 --> 00:46:02,119
Speaker 2: Did we have fifteen minutes? Left we haven't locked a

905
00:46:02,159 --> 00:46:04,400
parlay leg in. Yet does either one of you want

906
00:46:04,440 --> 00:46:06,440
to propose a game that you might use for the

907
00:46:06,480 --> 00:46:07,840
parley that we haven't talked about.

908
00:46:07,920 --> 00:46:10,000
Speaker 1: Yet what do you THINK?

909
00:46:10,039 --> 00:46:18,519
Speaker 4: Tv, well, uh, Yeah i'm gonna take The Boston Red sox,

910
00:46:18,559 --> 00:46:23,280
Here SO i guess we can talk about this. Game

911
00:46:23,360 --> 00:46:25,960
we haven't talked about it, yet, Right brian can?

912
00:46:26,039 --> 00:46:28,239
Speaker 1: Start but, yeah let's let's Do let's Do Red sox

913
00:46:30,119 --> 00:46:30,719
the time.

914
00:46:30,760 --> 00:46:31,079
Speaker 4: Stamp.

915
00:46:31,239 --> 00:46:35,039
Speaker 3: Yeah, Perfect this was one of the games THAT i

916
00:46:35,119 --> 00:46:38,360
was thinking about talking. About so it'll be. Good you

917
00:46:38,440 --> 00:46:45,000
Got bellow going Against breo going Against matthews here two current,

918
00:46:45,079 --> 00:46:51,480
Number we've Got matthews about, one one, fifteen let's just

919
00:46:51,519 --> 00:46:54,960
say one fifteen favorite eight to the over on the.

920
00:46:55,000 --> 00:47:00,320
Total Brian bao is a guy THAT i normally don't

921
00:47:00,360 --> 00:47:03,320
try to bet. On he's got a three point three TWO,

922
00:47:03,400 --> 00:47:06,199
era but he SUSPECTED era is four point three. Nine

923
00:47:06,960 --> 00:47:09,320
last two years his eras were four point four nine

924
00:47:09,320 --> 00:47:11,119
and four point twenty, Four SO i think we know

925
00:47:11,159 --> 00:47:16,519
what kind of pitcher he. Is his whipth this year

926
00:47:16,880 --> 00:47:19,159
is one point two. Eight he's always struggled with his

927
00:47:19,360 --> 00:47:22,519
career is one point three. Nine very. Good ground ball

928
00:47:22,559 --> 00:47:26,239
percentage eighty fourth, percentile hard hit rates seventy fifth, percentile

929
00:47:26,679 --> 00:47:29,000
not a guy who's going to strike anybody, out twenty first,

930
00:47:29,000 --> 00:47:34,599
percentile and thirteenth percentile on whiff. Rate he throws six

931
00:47:34,679 --> 00:47:38,000
pitches and his four seemer is down to seventeen percent

932
00:47:38,079 --> 00:47:40,400
usage this, year AND i think that's why he's had

933
00:47:40,400 --> 00:47:43,920
more of his. Success if you take a look at

934
00:47:43,960 --> 00:47:47,079
his his four, seemer it's basically league average for a

935
00:47:47,159 --> 00:47:50,480
right handed right handed better his. Sinker he's gone with

936
00:47:50,519 --> 00:47:52,320
more of a sinker this. Year that's his number one.

937
00:47:52,320 --> 00:47:56,840
Pitch his sinker's actually thrown slightly faster than his four.

938
00:47:56,920 --> 00:48:00,719
Seemer it's a two point two percent fast than his for.

939
00:48:00,880 --> 00:48:05,559
Seemer so he's a guy who's starting to learn how to,

940
00:48:05,559 --> 00:48:09,440
pitch and he's been better this, year but STILL i

941
00:48:09,519 --> 00:48:11,280
just don't think he's a guy i'm looking to. Back

942
00:48:11,320 --> 00:48:14,239
for the most, Part Zebbe matthews comes in with a

943
00:48:14,239 --> 00:48:17,440
four point ninety seventy three point sixty seven. Expected he's

944
00:48:17,440 --> 00:48:21,239
a guy that's pitching better than his. Numbers his whip

945
00:48:21,280 --> 00:48:24,360
one point three. Four if you remember last, year he

946
00:48:24,519 --> 00:48:28,639
was a guy that didn't walk. Anybody his walker rate

947
00:48:29,880 --> 00:48:32,639
was six point. Two now it's seven point, three but

948
00:48:32,719 --> 00:48:34,559
his strikeout rate is going all the way up to

949
00:48:34,639 --> 00:48:38,480
thirty point, six which gives him a twenty three point

950
00:48:38,519 --> 00:48:43,199
three strikeout minus walk. RATIO i kind of Like minnesota.

951
00:48:43,239 --> 00:48:45,719
HERE i know you said you Like, boston BUT i

952
00:48:45,960 --> 00:48:49,519
Liked Zebbi matthews and last time out he put it all.

953
00:48:49,559 --> 00:48:53,400
Together now he's a young pitcher that could turn around

954
00:48:53,400 --> 00:48:56,239
and he could get bound, here BUT i like him

955
00:48:56,280 --> 00:49:01,000
for future reference more Than. Bo he's pitching at, home and,

956
00:49:01,320 --> 00:49:05,360
uh you're getting On madge, basically you, know slightly more

957
00:49:05,400 --> 00:49:08,880
than a pickup. SITUATION i prefer The minnesota. Side i'm

958
00:49:08,920 --> 00:49:10,159
interested to see why you Like.

959
00:49:10,199 --> 00:49:17,760
Speaker 4: Boston, OKAY i do Like boston, here mainly because Now

960
00:49:17,880 --> 00:49:20,280
i'm kind of like, You, brian And i've never really

961
00:49:20,360 --> 00:49:23,960
Liked bao, much but this season he's really turning it,

962
00:49:24,039 --> 00:49:27,519
on and what stat really jumps out to me is

963
00:49:27,559 --> 00:49:31,280
the fact that against these batteris in his career one

964
00:49:31,400 --> 00:49:34,480
forty three average against in a four point fifty two opis.

965
00:49:34,519 --> 00:49:38,960
Against that's pretty. Amazing not only, that But boston's, bullpen

966
00:49:39,159 --> 00:49:43,760
in my opinion current, form performing a lot better Than. Minnesota's,

967
00:49:44,320 --> 00:49:47,119
uh The Boston bats are a little, sleepy but Soer.

968
00:49:47,159 --> 00:49:50,599
MINNESOTA'S i have them both ranked quite, low SO i

969
00:49:50,599 --> 00:49:55,000
think that's. COMPARABLE i Think bao can Shut minnesota out.

970
00:49:55,000 --> 00:49:58,239
Here if you Like, zebby then maybe in an under

971
00:49:58,280 --> 00:50:00,440
for this game might be. Good But i'm going to

972
00:50:00,519 --> 00:50:02,639
go with The Red sox on the money line for

973
00:50:02,800 --> 00:50:04,280
my parlay leg on this.

974
00:50:04,320 --> 00:50:08,159
Speaker 3: One, okay looking like about plus one hundred or so

975
00:50:08,599 --> 00:50:13,079
across the, board they're. Underdog, wow awesome's an. Underdog didn't

976
00:50:13,079 --> 00:50:14,639
you just listen to my? Analysis?

977
00:50:15,039 --> 00:50:20,599
Speaker 2: YEAH i, Did but, WELL i hope you're. RIGHT i

978
00:50:21,480 --> 00:50:24,079
also like The twins. Here i'll give my. Reasoning i'm

979
00:50:24,079 --> 00:50:26,159
not saying it's not saying that it's going to be,

980
00:50:26,239 --> 00:50:28,199
right BUT i will just you, know we got to

981
00:50:28,199 --> 00:50:31,480
break down the. Game, so, uh talking To Brian power this,

982
00:50:31,599 --> 00:50:33,800
morning and you know we were talking about this.

983
00:50:33,880 --> 00:50:36,559
Speaker 1: Game he uh he like.

984
00:50:36,639 --> 00:50:38,760
Speaker 2: WE i was talking to him yesterday About Pearson owl

985
00:50:38,840 --> 00:50:40,880
who made his his major league debut for The. Twins

986
00:50:41,199 --> 00:50:43,840
and The twins this is like something THAT i noticed

987
00:50:43,880 --> 00:50:46,920
that they're doing in their. Organization like All, So Zebbie

988
00:50:46,920 --> 00:50:50,280
matthews was a four year college player from a mid,

989
00:50:50,320 --> 00:50:52,719
major like a smaller a smaller. School they got him

990
00:50:52,719 --> 00:50:54,599
in like the eighth. Round he went To Western. Carolina

991
00:50:55,159 --> 00:50:58,639
All is a fifteenth round. Er he went To Grand.

992
00:50:58,679 --> 00:51:01,400
Canyon the Reason i'm bringing that up is these guys

993
00:51:01,440 --> 00:51:03,320
are he like Zeb matthews is not.

994
00:51:03,400 --> 00:51:05,760
Speaker 1: Young he's twenty five years, old right like same thing With.

995
00:51:05,840 --> 00:51:09,079
Speaker 2: Old they spent four years at a college and then

996
00:51:09,079 --> 00:51:11,280
what happens is The twins want to see what they

997
00:51:11,320 --> 00:51:14,000
have with these guys. Quickly so if they don't so

998
00:51:14,079 --> 00:51:17,159
they can just boot them if they don't respond right.

999
00:51:17,199 --> 00:51:20,239
Away last, Year Zebi matthews started the year in a

1000
00:51:20,360 --> 00:51:22,360
ball and they he was in the big leagues By.

1001
00:51:22,440 --> 00:51:24,760
July they just did the same thing With oh started

1002
00:51:24,800 --> 00:51:26,840
him in a ball in the big leagues By. July

1003
00:51:27,000 --> 00:51:29,960
the Reason i'm bringing that up here is Because zeb's

1004
00:51:30,000 --> 00:51:32,440
now in year. Two he's had the year he's had

1005
00:51:32,480 --> 00:51:36,199
AN mlb off, season and his numbers are very skewed

1006
00:51:36,199 --> 00:51:38,639
this year by working around a couple of. Injuries so

1007
00:51:39,639 --> 00:51:41,639
when you look at his what he's done this, year

1008
00:51:41,639 --> 00:51:44,079
it's actually been very. Impressive it's just he's had more

1009
00:51:44,079 --> 00:51:46,159
of his impressive starts have been At TRIPLE, a and

1010
00:51:46,199 --> 00:51:48,280
it's just the way that the cookie has crumbled for

1011
00:51:48,320 --> 00:51:51,159
him a little. Bit IT'S i don't think he's throwing

1012
00:51:51,159 --> 00:51:53,000
the ball any better or. Worse it's just he's had

1013
00:51:53,039 --> 00:51:55,280
a little bit better luck when he's on the mound

1014
00:51:55,280 --> 00:51:56,800
At Saint paul than when he is With.

1015
00:51:56,920 --> 00:51:59,000
Speaker 1: MINNESOTA i think some of it is. INJURY i think

1016
00:51:59,000 --> 00:51:59,800
it's some of it.

1017
00:51:59,719 --> 00:52:02,880
Speaker 2: Is just, luck, Right, like it's just you, know he's

1018
00:52:03,039 --> 00:52:05,000
he's starting every fifth, day but he's not always at

1019
00:52:05,000 --> 00:52:07,320
the big league. Level last time out was his best

1020
00:52:07,320 --> 00:52:09,360
start of the, year and that's What brian alluded. To

1021
00:52:09,480 --> 00:52:13,440
six shoutout innings against The, nationals seven, strikeouts no. WALKS

1022
00:52:14,280 --> 00:52:17,000
i would prefer to play, on you, know try try

1023
00:52:17,039 --> 00:52:18,960
to like ride that a little, bit BECAUSE i do

1024
00:52:19,000 --> 00:52:21,599
think that you're going to start to see him sort

1025
00:52:21,599 --> 00:52:24,719
of put it all, together because he's done it and

1026
00:52:24,760 --> 00:52:26,119
he just hasn't really been able to do it this

1027
00:52:26,199 --> 00:52:28,320
year because he hasn't always been at the big. Leagues

1028
00:52:28,320 --> 00:52:29,800
he got, it he had an injury for a, minute

1029
00:52:29,840 --> 00:52:31,880
SO i don't want to bet against. Him it Doesn't

1030
00:52:31,920 --> 00:52:34,760
it doesn't MEAN i love the twinsier per se in the, spot.

1031
00:52:34,719 --> 00:52:37,440
Speaker 1: BUT i do Like. Zeby so that's just my breakdown

1032
00:52:37,440 --> 00:52:37,599
in the.

1033
00:52:37,639 --> 00:52:40,400
Speaker 2: Game BUT i don't have a strong enough opinion to

1034
00:52:40,400 --> 00:52:41,199
tell you not to put it in the.

1035
00:52:41,199 --> 00:52:42,480
Speaker 1: Parlay so TV's.

1036
00:52:42,119 --> 00:52:44,239
Speaker 2: Going with The Red sox and the parlay fine with,

1037
00:52:44,320 --> 00:52:46,400
that and, uh LIKE i, SAID i hope you're, UH

1038
00:52:47,119 --> 00:52:48,440
i hope you're right about that BECAUSE i want to

1039
00:52:48,480 --> 00:52:48,639
hit the.

1040
00:52:48,639 --> 00:52:51,559
Speaker 4: Well I've i've been the loser of the parlay the

1041
00:52:51,639 --> 00:52:55,119
last two or three, Months so, Yeah i'm not feeling

1042
00:52:55,159 --> 00:52:55,840
real good about it.

1043
00:52:55,920 --> 00:53:00,000
Speaker 2: Now So sean puts up so he's saying no bucks

1044
00:53:00,079 --> 00:53:02,480
to Know Korea twins could be resting a couple guys.

1045
00:53:02,519 --> 00:53:04,280
Speaker 1: Today that certainly, Matters.

1046
00:53:05,199 --> 00:53:08,400
Speaker 2: So, Again i'm not that was really more my ALL

1047
00:53:08,440 --> 00:53:10,679
i have to offer there to that analysis is What

1048
00:53:10,719 --> 00:53:11,880
i've noticed With Zebbie.

1049
00:53:11,880 --> 00:53:13,519
Speaker 1: Matthews do what you will with.

1050
00:53:13,559 --> 00:53:15,519
Speaker 2: It i'm not saying that The Red sox won't find

1051
00:53:15,519 --> 00:53:18,280
a way to win this. Game so TV's on The

1052
00:53:18,320 --> 00:53:21,480
Red sox for the, parlay and we're fine with.

1053
00:53:21,519 --> 00:53:23,920
Speaker 1: That we hope they we hope they get it. Done all,

1054
00:53:24,039 --> 00:53:24,480
RIGHT i.

1055
00:53:24,559 --> 00:53:26,800
Speaker 2: Will i'll throw a game out there THAT i saw

1056
00:53:26,840 --> 00:53:28,599
in the chat a couple of, times because this might

1057
00:53:28,800 --> 00:53:32,199
very well be it for. Me we talked about one young,

1058
00:53:32,239 --> 00:53:36,079
team The, rockies not playing particularly well. Yesterday another young

1059
00:53:36,119 --> 00:53:38,880
team that we've been way ahead on finally didn't have

1060
00:53:38,920 --> 00:53:41,360
their best game. Yesterday that was The Chicago White. Sox

1061
00:53:41,360 --> 00:53:43,400
but they get to do it again. Today so we

1062
00:53:43,480 --> 00:53:48,239
Have Phillies White. Sox Brian, LEONARD, i there's SOMETHING i

1063
00:53:48,320 --> 00:53:50,320
like in this. GAME i don't know if you have

1064
00:53:50,440 --> 00:53:52,039
a guess as to what it might, be But i'm

1065
00:53:52,039 --> 00:53:52,639
gonna let you go.

1066
00:53:52,719 --> 00:53:54,840
Speaker 1: First Phillies White. Sox how are you seeing this?

1067
00:53:54,880 --> 00:53:59,800
Speaker 3: One And Ron walker again On Sadrian. Hauser. Uh current

1068
00:54:00,119 --> 00:54:05,440
line in this one Is philadelphia about a one thirty

1069
00:54:05,559 --> 00:54:11,039
five favorite total of. Nine when you look at what

1070
00:54:11,119 --> 00:54:14,800
they've done, Offensively philadelphia is sixth over the last month

1071
00:54:14,840 --> 00:54:19,000
with a one TWENTY wrc plus it's all common isolated. Power.

1072
00:54:19,559 --> 00:54:22,280
Uh they lead the majors in isolated power at that,

1073
00:54:22,320 --> 00:54:25,800
time which is two forty three because they have guys

1074
00:54:25,840 --> 00:54:28,000
that can get out in front and pull that, ball

1075
00:54:28,480 --> 00:54:31,519
and that's where they get the power from their babbib

1076
00:54:31,599 --> 00:54:34,480
is only two sixty, seven and it's very similar to

1077
00:54:34,480 --> 00:54:36,800
what The yankees usually. Do The yankees right now come

1078
00:54:36,840 --> 00:54:40,519
in with a babbet two forty. Four so both these

1079
00:54:40,519 --> 00:54:43,519
teams are very similar offensively in that. Regard obviously The

1080
00:54:43,599 --> 00:54:47,679
yankees you're missing judge right. Now But philadelphia does have

1081
00:54:47,719 --> 00:54:49,519
a lot of power on this, team and when they're

1082
00:54:49,519 --> 00:54:53,480
heading for, power they can have. Success The White sox

1083
00:54:53,760 --> 00:54:56,280
are also having a nice month, offensively cut a one

1084
00:54:56,400 --> 00:55:00,519
twenty FOUR wrc plus fourth in, baseball but a lot

1085
00:55:00,559 --> 00:55:02,679
of that comes down to their, babbit which is three

1086
00:55:02,800 --> 00:55:07,840
oh Five Taiwan walker going For philadelphia three point eight

1087
00:55:07,920 --> 00:55:12,000
FOUR era three point eighty eight EXPECTED era one point

1088
00:55:12,039 --> 00:55:15,039
three five. Whip he's actually been pretty good this. Year

1089
00:55:15,239 --> 00:55:17,880
he's got a three to five, record but that's the

1090
00:55:17,920 --> 00:55:22,920
BEST era he has had in a. While and he

1091
00:55:23,000 --> 00:55:24,679
is the only thing is he Does he's not a

1092
00:55:24,679 --> 00:55:26,880
big strikeout much walk. Guy he's only a ten point.

1093
00:55:26,920 --> 00:55:31,800
Five so, yeah we've picked On walker many times going

1094
00:55:32,519 --> 00:55:36,760
going against, him but here Against, CHICAGO i do have

1095
00:55:36,840 --> 00:55:41,320
some concerns. Ours houser's been great at, home even better

1096
00:55:41,400 --> 00:55:43,079
home than on The road's got a two point one

1097
00:55:43,119 --> 00:55:47,199
TWO era three point nine six expected, though so he's

1098
00:55:47,239 --> 00:55:50,239
been very. Fortunate now he does have that barrel percentage

1099
00:55:50,280 --> 00:55:54,800
at ninety two, percent centile extension eighty fifth, percentile ground

1100
00:55:54,840 --> 00:55:58,440
ball rate seventy, third all, great but his fifth percentile

1101
00:55:58,480 --> 00:56:02,880
is in the fifth. PERCENTILE O k rate, fourteenth hard

1102
00:56:02,960 --> 00:56:06,039
hit rate. Sixteenth he's a guy THAT i got a

1103
00:56:06,039 --> 00:56:09,639
feeling's gonna blow up at any. TIME i am concerned

1104
00:56:09,679 --> 00:56:12,559
a little bit. HERE i guesst a good Hitting phillies.

1105
00:56:12,599 --> 00:56:15,719
TEAM i have a feeling once, again you're gonna be

1106
00:56:15,719 --> 00:56:17,280
looking at the other side of this game THAN i.

1107
00:56:17,320 --> 00:56:20,159
WOULD i would prefer The philadelphia, Side BUT i have

1108
00:56:20,320 --> 00:56:22,599
enough underdogs on today's card WHERE i think is a

1109
00:56:22,599 --> 00:56:24,920
good underdog, day SO i probably won't get.

1110
00:56:24,960 --> 00:56:31,159
Speaker 4: Involved, yeah this is another one of those cover the logo,

1111
00:56:31,320 --> 00:56:34,519
games because if you cover the logo and the team,

1112
00:56:34,639 --> 00:56:37,840
names and these teams rank neck and neck as far

1113
00:56:37,880 --> 00:56:41,400
as my numbers are. Concerned but then you take your

1114
00:56:41,440 --> 00:56:44,599
hand off the logos and you're, like, Oh philly's gonna crush.

1115
00:56:44,639 --> 00:56:48,800
Them But philly's on the way to the Playoffs World series.

1116
00:56:48,880 --> 00:56:53,400
Contenders The White sox are just playing out another meaningless.

1117
00:56:53,440 --> 00:56:57,239
Season But White socks are hitting really well right. Now

1118
00:56:57,760 --> 00:57:03,320
their bullpen is so BUT i Like. Howser my numbers

1119
00:57:03,360 --> 00:57:06,599
have him pretty, mediocre but they Have Taiwan walker pretty

1120
00:57:06,800 --> 00:57:11,840
mediocre as, well And philly bullpen's slight. Advantage both teams

1121
00:57:11,920 --> 00:57:15,039
are crushing the ball right, now especially The White sox

1122
00:57:15,119 --> 00:57:17,519
got them ranked number three in all OF, mlb.

1123
00:57:17,519 --> 00:57:18,920
Speaker 1: So cover the.

1124
00:57:18,960 --> 00:57:23,119
Speaker 4: LOGO i would take The Adam Trigger Special White sox

1125
00:57:23,159 --> 00:57:25,920
plus one and a half IF i were to bet this.

1126
00:57:26,000 --> 00:57:28,039
One and you, know but.

1127
00:57:29,519 --> 00:57:30,800
Speaker 1: Both teams are hitting.

1128
00:57:30,480 --> 00:57:32,360
Speaker 4: Really, well so it's really hard to take a one

1129
00:57:32,440 --> 00:57:34,039
and a half BECAUSE i think this is going to

1130
00:57:34,119 --> 00:57:37,159
be like or ten plus runs in this. Game so,

1131
00:57:38,199 --> 00:57:39,679
yeah that would be the WAY i would. Go by the,

1132
00:57:39,719 --> 00:57:42,280
way CAN i change my parlay leg To Boston Red

1133
00:57:42,320 --> 00:57:46,480
sox first five under four and a? HALF i think

1134
00:57:46,480 --> 00:57:50,599
that's a better bet because both pitchers are hot and

1135
00:57:50,639 --> 00:57:52,880
neither team is really hitting very. Well so IF i

1136
00:57:52,920 --> 00:57:57,239
could change my parlay, leg sorry about, that, Guys, YEAH

1137
00:57:57,440 --> 00:57:58,280
i Think.

1138
00:58:00,079 --> 00:58:02,320
Speaker 1: Austin, yeah thank you About.

1139
00:58:02,320 --> 00:58:04,519
Speaker 2: Boston if they want we they no one has met

1140
00:58:04,519 --> 00:58:05,960
the parla yet because we don't have one.

1141
00:58:06,039 --> 00:58:08,039
Speaker 1: Yet so if if you want to change, it, now go.

1142
00:58:08,199 --> 00:58:14,079
Ahead so so you're gonna Go Red sox twins.

1143
00:58:13,960 --> 00:58:15,400
Speaker 4: Under four and a half in.

1144
00:58:19,039 --> 00:58:20,639
Speaker 3: Five for the most part of twenty.

1145
00:58:20,719 --> 00:58:23,880
Speaker 4: Five, Yeah, yeah that's What i'm gonna.

1146
00:58:23,920 --> 00:58:27,440
Speaker 1: Do you, KNOW i gotta be.

1147
00:58:27,480 --> 00:58:30,800
Speaker 2: HONEST I i came into this sort of breakdown thinking

1148
00:58:30,840 --> 00:58:33,119
That White sox plus one and a half would be

1149
00:58:33,119 --> 00:58:33,599
the WAY i would.

1150
00:58:33,599 --> 00:58:34,639
Speaker 1: Go it's still the WAY i would go.

1151
00:58:34,679 --> 00:58:38,920
Speaker 2: In this particular, game BUT i do THINK i maybe

1152
00:58:39,679 --> 00:58:42,920
didn't really think through the fact That philly really could

1153
00:58:43,000 --> 00:58:45,320
could hang a number On. Howser, Here brian makes a

1154
00:58:45,320 --> 00:58:48,519
great point some of some of those underlying metrics For

1155
00:58:48,599 --> 00:58:52,639
houser suggests that he might maybe give back some of

1156
00:58:52,679 --> 00:58:55,039
his good start at some, point like this great start

1157
00:58:55,079 --> 00:58:57,480
to HIS mlb season really His White sox.

1158
00:58:57,519 --> 00:58:58,440
Speaker 1: Career he was he was.

1159
00:58:58,400 --> 00:59:01,239
Speaker 2: Throwing the ball well for a round rock in The

1160
00:59:01,320 --> 00:59:04,480
rangers organization prior to getting signed by The White. Sox

1161
00:59:04,519 --> 00:59:07,840
so the MORE i think about, it and AND i

1162
00:59:07,920 --> 00:59:10,559
do not Like Tewan, walker so Maybe i've Maybe i've

1163
00:59:10,679 --> 00:59:13,639
spoken over into, existence like maybe that's the WAY i

1164
00:59:13,639 --> 00:59:15,880
would look at this game personally BECAUSE i do think

1165
00:59:15,880 --> 00:59:18,559
The White sox can get something Off. WALKER i am

1166
00:59:18,599 --> 00:59:21,039
a little bit concerned That howser might get bombed at

1167
00:59:21,360 --> 00:59:24,280
at some point AND i, don't and with The phillies

1168
00:59:24,320 --> 00:59:27,360
being what The phillies can, be and also the fact

1169
00:59:27,360 --> 00:59:30,360
that they profile better against the right handed, PITCHER i

1170
00:59:30,400 --> 00:59:33,360
am kind of maybe off The i'm gonna have to

1171
00:59:33,400 --> 00:59:35,679
go think about that game a little bit more BEFORE

1172
00:59:35,760 --> 00:59:38,960
i decide WHAT i want to do with, it which

1173
00:59:39,039 --> 00:59:42,159
means my parlay like will be The rockies again today

1174
00:59:42,239 --> 00:59:44,719
plus one and a, Half i'm running it. BACK i

1175
00:59:44,719 --> 00:59:48,719
think that this is a much better scenario for The

1176
00:59:48,800 --> 00:59:51,679
rockies than yesterday. Was you have the Veteran freeland on the.

1177
00:59:51,719 --> 00:59:54,519
Mound they didn't use any of the good bullpen, arms

1178
00:59:54,559 --> 00:59:59,320
and they're THEY'RE i, mean it's The. Guardians it's probably

1179
00:59:59,320 --> 01:00:01,599
going to be some of the b bullpen. Guys Cody

1180
01:00:01,639 --> 01:00:03,960
allard's not really a big league pitcher in my. Opinion

1181
01:00:04,519 --> 01:00:08,039
i've watched him plenty At. Columbus he's more of A i,

1182
01:00:08,079 --> 01:00:09,840
mean he's a guy THAT i guess you don't mind

1183
01:00:09,880 --> 01:00:12,039
having in there for a couple of, innings but not

1184
01:00:12,159 --> 01:00:14,880
someone on, that concerned about The rockies generating some offense

1185
01:00:14,920 --> 01:00:17,119
off Of i'll go back to WHAT i keep, saying

1186
01:00:17,760 --> 01:00:21,119
two even teams right. Now, So Brian, leonard what is

1187
01:00:21,159 --> 01:00:22,800
The rockies plus one and a half?

1188
01:00:22,840 --> 01:00:23,239
Speaker 1: Line right?

1189
01:00:23,280 --> 01:00:27,039
Speaker 3: NOW i do want to say That allard's probably part

1190
01:00:27,159 --> 01:00:31,440
of a bullpen. Game, YEAH i, Agree so he won't

1191
01:00:31,440 --> 01:00:33,519
be in more than an inning or two right. Now

1192
01:00:33,559 --> 01:00:36,239
colorado plus one and a half is minus one thirty.

1193
01:00:36,280 --> 01:00:38,920
Speaker 1: Six all, Right i'll take.

1194
01:00:38,960 --> 01:00:41,320
Speaker 2: That and, Yeah, ALARD i THINK i think he could

1195
01:00:41,360 --> 01:00:43,400
he could, go you, KNOW i think they might give

1196
01:00:43,480 --> 01:00:44,920
him a couple of, Innings, LIKE i, mean he was

1197
01:00:44,960 --> 01:00:48,079
starting games For, columbus so he definitely has the ability

1198
01:00:48,119 --> 01:00:49,360
to go more than.

1199
01:00:49,360 --> 01:00:50,000
Speaker 1: One but, YEAH i.

1200
01:00:50,000 --> 01:00:52,760
Speaker 2: Wouldn't i'm with you in the respect, that, like they're

1201
01:00:52,800 --> 01:00:55,079
not leaving him out there very, long And i'm fine with.

1202
01:00:55,119 --> 01:00:58,320
THAT i think The rockies can generate some. Offense i'll

1203
01:00:58,320 --> 01:01:01,039
say it one more. Time Since All Star, break they've

1204
01:01:01,039 --> 01:01:03,920
been an underdog every. Game they're six and, five playing

1205
01:01:04,000 --> 01:01:05,519
much better. Ball so give me the run and a

1206
01:01:05,519 --> 01:01:09,119
half with the road, team all, Right Brian, leonard we

1207
01:01:09,159 --> 01:01:12,000
need to close this parlay, out so, let's, uh what

1208
01:01:12,320 --> 01:01:13,119
do you got for us.

1209
01:01:13,159 --> 01:01:16,280
Speaker 3: Here i've got a few GAMES i like that are.

1210
01:01:16,360 --> 01:01:19,639
Underdogs and by the, way the we mentioned it, earlier

1211
01:01:19,960 --> 01:01:24,519
the trade deadline ends tomorrow and we actually talked About ryan.

1212
01:01:24,519 --> 01:01:27,159
O'Hearn ryan O'Hearn is one of the guys For baltimore

1213
01:01:27,199 --> 01:01:31,559
of that is almost guaranteed to be. Traded that's that's

1214
01:01:31,599 --> 01:01:33,760
the problem you run into right. Now a lot of these,

1215
01:01:33,800 --> 01:01:37,480
teams you handicap the game expecting somebody to be in

1216
01:01:37,480 --> 01:01:40,719
the lineup and then he's not going to. Be buxton

1217
01:01:40,840 --> 01:01:43,880
was mentioned he's on the il, Now so you've got

1218
01:01:43,880 --> 01:01:47,360
to keep that in the account when you look at

1219
01:01:47,360 --> 01:01:50,079
These so everything all week long has been pretty small for.

1220
01:01:50,119 --> 01:01:53,800
Me i'm gonna keep it small again. Today but why

1221
01:01:53,960 --> 01:02:00,159
is The Saint Louis cardinals of one fifty favorite here Against? Miami,

1222
01:02:00,440 --> 01:02:02,920
YEAH i know it's why is Because contrel is going For.

1223
01:02:03,320 --> 01:02:06,280
Miami But contrel is a much better picture when he

1224
01:02:06,360 --> 01:02:09,400
goes on the ROADS i talked about in the. Past

1225
01:02:10,079 --> 01:02:12,800
he's not a great picture by any, Means but how

1226
01:02:12,800 --> 01:02:17,159
could you expect another performance That Miles michlis put in

1227
01:02:17,239 --> 01:02:19,800
his last, start blew me. Away it's probably the best

1228
01:02:19,840 --> 01:02:24,159
start he has had in, years And Saint louis right

1229
01:02:24,199 --> 01:02:28,599
now is a. Seller they're already talking about Hells lee

1230
01:02:28,719 --> 01:02:32,239
is almost as good as going right. Now some of

1231
01:02:32,280 --> 01:02:35,719
their key hitters on this, team they're veteran, hitters will

1232
01:02:35,840 --> 01:02:40,199
likely be Traded miami's nobody's looking for The miami, hitters

1233
01:02:40,519 --> 01:02:43,920
and they're looking for The miami. Pitchers, well that's not

1234
01:02:44,000 --> 01:02:46,400
going to have an Effect miami's other. Starters we're not

1235
01:02:46,440 --> 01:02:48,159
going to have an effect on this game right. Here

1236
01:02:48,760 --> 01:02:51,519
so at LEAST i Know quantrell is not going anywhere

1237
01:02:52,039 --> 01:02:55,920
And micholas isn't going, Anywhere and SO i look at the.

1238
01:02:55,960 --> 01:02:59,360
TWO i Prefer quantrill Over, michless and we're getting a.

1239
01:02:59,360 --> 01:03:02,519
Plus you, Know i'm seeing upwards of you, know one

1240
01:03:02,519 --> 01:03:05,519
p thirty two out there On. Miami i'm gonna Play

1241
01:03:05,559 --> 01:03:09,199
miami plus one twenty eight here IS i think they're

1242
01:03:09,280 --> 01:03:11,199
just as good As Saint Louis. Is they've got more

1243
01:03:11,239 --> 01:03:14,159
to play for the rest of the, season and who

1244
01:03:14,199 --> 01:03:17,239
knows how many of These cardinals players will be gone

1245
01:03:17,360 --> 01:03:20,800
today or. Tomorrow i'm taking a shot here with a nice,

1246
01:03:20,880 --> 01:03:24,400
underdog and we'll play In miami plus one twenty.

1247
01:03:24,440 --> 01:03:28,000
Speaker 4: EIGHT i know we're running a little, long So i'll

1248
01:03:28,079 --> 01:03:31,360
keep it very, concise BUT i agree With. BRIAN i

1249
01:03:31,400 --> 01:03:34,960
have Cal quantrell ranked higher Than Miles. Meekliss there's no

1250
01:03:35,039 --> 01:03:38,159
way in the, World there's no way in the history

1251
01:03:38,199 --> 01:03:40,320
of the World Miles meekless should be a minus one

1252
01:03:40,440 --> 01:03:44,880
fifty favorite under any. Circumstance so, YEAH i would agree

1253
01:03:44,920 --> 01:03:45,960
With brian's analysis.

1254
01:03:46,000 --> 01:03:50,559
Speaker 2: THERE i fully agree With brian's. Analysis the only Thing

1255
01:03:50,559 --> 01:03:53,599
i'll add two. Things ONE i cash With. Quantra last

1256
01:03:53,599 --> 01:03:56,400
week he pitched great against The. Brewers, two The marlins

1257
01:03:56,400 --> 01:03:59,199
bullpen has been as good as any over the last like,

1258
01:03:59,639 --> 01:04:00,400
month month and a.

1259
01:04:00,400 --> 01:04:03,599
Speaker 1: Half this this the the.

1260
01:04:02,760 --> 01:04:04,880
Speaker 2: Group of relievers that they now have at the big

1261
01:04:04,920 --> 01:04:09,039
league level are all. Fantastic and if you look at

1262
01:04:09,079 --> 01:04:11,880
like recent THE tv pull it up real, quick what

1263
01:04:12,079 --> 01:04:14,360
do you Have marlin's bullpen like last thirty, Days it's

1264
01:04:14,400 --> 01:04:15,880
got to be very close to the top of the.

1265
01:04:15,880 --> 01:04:20,559
Speaker 1: Week they have been. Awesome so five five how about? That?

1266
01:04:20,719 --> 01:04:23,440
Speaker 2: Right they're not getting they're not getting five credit from

1267
01:04:23,480 --> 01:04:26,440
the book makers because they're still judged off the full,

1268
01:04:26,480 --> 01:04:28,519
season but they have been nails that relief.

1269
01:04:28,639 --> 01:04:29,199
Speaker 1: Unit go, Ahead.

1270
01:04:29,199 --> 01:04:34,159
Speaker 3: Brian, yeah one final. Thing the best relievers in The Saint, Louis,

1271
01:04:34,199 --> 01:04:40,400
Bullpen heisley Or, Elsley, Mayton romero and. O'Brien none of them,

1272
01:04:40,519 --> 01:04:45,559
well but The, Romero, mayton And isley have not pitched

1273
01:04:45,599 --> 01:04:49,239
in four. Days they will likely get into the, game

1274
01:04:49,760 --> 01:04:52,840
but they will be very. Rusty in, fact there's probably

1275
01:04:52,880 --> 01:04:56,079
reason Why heisley hasn't pitched is because they've been looking

1276
01:04:56,119 --> 01:04:58,400
to trade. Them they don't want him to get. Hurt, so,

1277
01:04:58,840 --> 01:05:00,679
yeah a lot of things to be concerned about with

1278
01:05:00,719 --> 01:05:01,239
The cardinals.

1279
01:05:01,239 --> 01:05:05,199
Speaker 2: Here so we have now that that juiced up the

1280
01:05:05,199 --> 01:05:08,719
parlay very. Nicely that that parlay's plus six. Fifteen Now

1281
01:05:09,199 --> 01:05:12,239
i'll read it off. Here we Have rockies plus one

1282
01:05:12,280 --> 01:05:16,519
and a. Half that's full. Game we Have marlin's Money

1283
01:05:16,519 --> 01:05:18,719
line plus one twenty eight that's full. Game and Then

1284
01:05:18,719 --> 01:05:21,880
Tokyo brandon is going to go With Red sox twins

1285
01:05:22,079 --> 01:05:24,440
under four and a half in the first. Five i've

1286
01:05:24,440 --> 01:05:27,159
got to, SAY i like That's i'm glad you changed.

1287
01:05:27,199 --> 01:05:30,000
THAT i like that much better. PERSONALLY i think you're

1288
01:05:30,119 --> 01:05:34,320
you're onto something there with that being. Under so someone

1289
01:05:34,320 --> 01:05:36,800
in the chat, says these guys pushing a. Parlay if

1290
01:05:36,800 --> 01:05:40,400
you're new to the, show we do a show parlay

1291
01:05:40,679 --> 01:05:44,719
every show so far this. Year if you've played them,

1292
01:05:44,760 --> 01:05:47,800
all they're up ten point four, units or for every,

1293
01:05:47,840 --> 01:05:51,599
dollar if you've played them, equally every dollar would yield

1294
01:05:51,599 --> 01:05:54,920
ten dollars and forty. Cents they've Been you, know it's

1295
01:05:54,920 --> 01:05:58,000
something we do for. Fun but they're still, winning So

1296
01:05:58,199 --> 01:06:00,639
i'm gonna point that. Out, so, yeah the parlay is

1297
01:06:00,679 --> 01:06:03,079
just something we do for. Fun you can bet them,

1298
01:06:03,199 --> 01:06:04,719
straight you can bet, them you don't have to bet

1299
01:06:04,760 --> 01:06:04,960
them at.

1300
01:06:04,960 --> 01:06:06,840
Speaker 1: All we actually really don't. Care we're just trying to

1301
01:06:06,840 --> 01:06:07,760
give out decent.

1302
01:06:07,800 --> 01:06:11,519
Speaker 2: Info but that's what we do every, show and we're

1303
01:06:11,559 --> 01:06:13,559
gonna end this show the way we do every show

1304
01:06:13,719 --> 01:06:16,239
with the parlay and also telling you to go like

1305
01:06:16,239 --> 01:06:18,320
and subscribe and comment and support the.

1306
01:06:18,320 --> 01:06:19,519
Speaker 1: Show we very much appreciate.

1307
01:06:19,599 --> 01:06:21,760
Speaker 2: That but one more, time for the people in the BACK,

1308
01:06:21,840 --> 01:06:26,239
tv the parlay is plus six, fifteen It's rockies plus

1309
01:06:26,239 --> 01:06:29,039
one and a, half It's marlin's on the money line

1310
01:06:29,119 --> 01:06:31,800
And Red Sox twins first five under four and a.

1311
01:06:31,840 --> 01:06:36,880
Half appreciate all you guys tuning in live on. Demand

1312
01:06:37,480 --> 01:06:39,719
we've been able to do this show five days a,

1313
01:06:39,800 --> 01:06:43,119
week and it's because of all the viewers and the

1314
01:06:43,159 --> 01:06:46,400
fact that it's done well because of you, guys so

1315
01:06:46,679 --> 01:06:50,840
we very much appreciate all the, comments good, bad. Feedback

1316
01:06:50,880 --> 01:06:53,639
whatever you've, got we want to hear, It so jump

1317
01:06:53,639 --> 01:06:57,280
in and put those comments in the. Replay and good

1318
01:06:57,360 --> 01:06:59,760
luck with all your plays. Today enjoy some day. Baseball

1319
01:07:00,280 --> 01:07:02,679
we will see you guys tomorrow, morning right here at

1320
01:07:02,719 --> 01:07:03,559
nine Am eastern