Speaker 1: What's up? Everybody? Welcome into another episode of Profit Picks.
If you are new, we do will always start this
show by being transparent. It feels like forever since we
did a show. So no show on the weekends. But
I think I split one win on Saturday, a loss
on Sunday. Nothing really crazy, but yeah, nothing really crazy.
Last week was not the best. Hopefully this week can
be better. You know. Good to be back with you.
How's everything for you?
Speaker 2: Yeah? College basketball things are wonderful, Ski another winning weekend.
Three and oh yesterday. NBA was good on Saturday and
a bit lucky because at the Laker Golden State game,
over to twenty nine and I swear they had like
two hundred and four minutes left, but the low end
Scrubs came through and scored a whole bunch of points
at the end of that game and got to two thirty,
which was nice. Yesterday, though loser with the Denver team
total over man. Denver looks sluggish yesterday against Minnesota, or
maybe Minnesota just looked energetic and another I had too
bad yesterday. The other one was trying to think off
the top of my head. I don't know. I'd have
to go back and check it. Oh it was uh
it was the Bucks. Oh my god, the Bucks game over.
I got a lot to say about the Bucks today
and our good friend. Yeah, oh my god, I had
that one in the bank and no such luck.
Speaker 1: Well, let's see what we can get today. We have
four games to talk about. Not the best games at all,
but we'll see if we can find some money. And we'll
start with Houston and Washington. This one opened up minus
fifteen still fifteen total open two twenty four and a
halfs and right around there injuries we have Smith, Javar
Smith out, Tate out for Washington, Gills questionable, Black Davis
d lo sare Trey Young all out, Keishawn George playing
in this game? And for me, you know, I'm really
considering the dirty, filthy Wizards in this game. I mean
having Keyshawn George. I know he can least I can
trust him to have some offense. I like Trey Johnson
as well. I just don't think the Rocket's going to
be that interested against Washington. The Rockets also haven't been
great as a real favorite this year. I think I
think it's a chance to trust the dirty Wizards at
home here with all these points, what do you think?
Speaker 2: Yeah, and the points just kind of keep getting bigger
and bigger, right Ski, So then that becomes a point
where you can kind of trust in. Washington did cover
their last game against Toronto in this price range, getting
thirteen and a half lose by nine, high scoring game. Again.
For ever since the post All Star breaking maybe before,
we've talked about a handful of these teams, five or
six especially, that just don't care to win games, so
it makes them hard to handicap. Do they want to
come close? Do they not want to win at all?
Do they want to get blown out? But Washington at
least showed a little bit of fortitude in the Toronto game,
one thirty four to one to twenty five before Houston,
it's the third of a three game road trip. They're
going to get a couple of days off after this
go home play Golden State, So I could see this
being kind of a coach job for Houston, which does
need to win. Standings would tell you that the Rockets
would like to win this game. They're now in a
tie with Minnesota. Actually tiebreaker gives it to Houston a
three seed, but Minnesota is right there eight and a
half back with them, So you want to separate yourselves
a little. It doesn't mean you have to win by fifteen.
Jabari Smith, you just mentioned I think they were just trying.
They're just trying to save him and get him ready
for Golden State on Friday. So that in itself kind
of tells you that maybe a little lackadaisical effort, maybe
a three quarter effort, maybe a first half effort out
of Houston and ride that wave all the way home.
So I could see a Washington play here. These dogs
are filthy, but at some point fifteen and a half,
it just becomes too much to ignore. So I see
some action coming in on Houston a little bit here
in a couple of places fourteen and a half. So
I won't bet it, but I would be with you,
and I would almost think he just alerted me.
Speaker 1: I won't think Jaylen Brown, Yeah, there.
Speaker 2: Was something funny about that line. All day long, somebody
was going to be ruled out. He played thirty nine
minutes last night, So yeah, my thoughts on why I
was going to say something about the total, but I'll
pull it back because I don't really want to play
that total in particular, just based on Houston defense, so
probably look toward Washington if anything.
Speaker 1: How about this, I think that Houston has been on
the road. It's their third straight road game, and then
they have two days off and they get to go home. Right,
This just feels like a spot where you don't get
a really great effort from Houston. They just go through
the motions we can beat the Wizards or whatever. You know,
I got to beat the Wizards here today, Rob, you know,
I feel like I have to.
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, I agree with that. Like I said, it
seems like a leisure spot for Houston. You know, it's
a third game, third road game in a row. You
are you get the couple off after this. It's like
they're probably looking forward to just getting on the plane
and get them home. Don't have to play Golden State
until Thursday, So I mean, you don't have to do
much to beat the Wizards because they don't want to.
Speaker 1: Win the game.
Speaker 2: So it's not like you have to go all out.
They're going to allow you to win. But that's not
to say you have to win by sixteen. Yeah.
Speaker 1: Meanwhile, the Wizards did not have to travel anywhere. You
got some guys who can still score. Yeah, the Wizards.
Wizards are to play in this.
Speaker 2: One, and they showed some fight against Toronto. I mean
they played them under ten and I think Toronto, for
what it's worth, I think Toronto's ski I'm thinking back,
just from my own handicapping that Toronto has been one
of the better defenses in the NBA post All Star breaks.
So if you get one twenty five against them, you're
doing something.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, speaking of that, I mean, what's the Wizards
team total tonight. Let's see Wizards team total one oh
four and one o five. I mean, if Rockets are
not really even interested, I mean, that's definitely doable. They
do have good defense, but definitely doable. I'll think about that.
But I like I think I like the Wizards a
little bit more. Any last thoughts or we can keep
it going.
Speaker 2: No, I think for somebody who came here with no
play on that game, I might have talked myself into something.
There's a couple of ways to look at that one.
Speaker 1: We could move on, all right, Celtics and Bucks. This
game continues to be on the move. Sorry excuse me.
Opened up minus seven for Boston is down to two
or two and a half and toldal one from two
fifteen and a half to two sixteen and a half
or two seventeen and a half. I mean, it's all
over the place, it's moving, and it's really the injury report, right.
So Giannis was upgraded to probably expected to play today,
and then the line went up to I think like
two nineteen. Now Janon Brown has rode out line comes
crashed back down, you know, So that's kind of what
we're seeing here. Both teams are on the back to back, right,
Rob Vino, So did expect to see some injury news
throughout the day? I mean, I think I think this
is an undergame. You have one Boston plays that way
on back to backs anyway. I think eight out of
ten and all six on the road have gone to
the under on back to backs. Neither team playing with pace.
I mean, if you're honest, plays yes, that will increase
the pace and it helped the offense, but it has
been out for so long, he'll very likely be on
a minute limit and very likely be resty. I think
this is an undergame. I'm not sure what to do
with the sun anymore, since the number has moved so
much and the injury purt just keeps going crazy, but
I think under what do you think?
Speaker 2: You know? It just yeah, came down again to two sixteen. Listen,
my thoughts here are just a shade different, not regards
to the full game total, but in regards to the
Milwaukee team total, which is one six and a half.
Especially off of what happened yesterday. You could almost predict
where I would go with this. That second half and
that fourth quarter were abysmal. I don't know, they go
two for twenty one, Milwaukee does in the fourth quarter
two for twenty one, one of thirteen from three, they
get out rebounded nineteen to five. Now, if you take
nineteen to five Ski and just add it up for
four quarters, that's being out rebounded seventy six to twenty. Well,
what are we doing here with Milwaukee? It was such
a and it was such a great first half, sixty
six points eighty nine after three, averaging thirty ath quarter,
and then the fourth quarter complete fall apart. It was
kind of weird watching doc rivers like Kyle Kuzma play
point guards. They just bricked and bricked and turned it over.
Kyle Kuzma's not your point guard. I don't know if
he was eating his lunch Glen or or if he
was watching the game, but it was kind of weird.
I just those types of things, and I've been playing
Milwaukee overs anyway. If Jannis is on a military restriction,
that's fine. One of the bigger keys for me now
especially would be Jalen Brown out, which takes away a
lot of Boston wing defense. I know Derek White is
still pretty good. They played a pretty tough game last
night against Philadelphia. Philadelphia was in that thing, I think
eight points down with like five to play, and Boston
broke it open again one final time with a couple
of threes. So I wouldn't be surprised. I guess you
have to play Derek White, and he's one guy who
plays every single game anyway, but he did play thirty
eight minutes last night. Cada played out of his mind
in that game last night, doubled double in the first
half of the He's out too, So it's kind of
helpful from a Milwaukee offensive standpoint to have Jalen Brown
and Cada out of there. Really weakens the Boston defense
in rebounding. So for me, in fact, I just missed
the number because now the number went from one oh
six and a half to one oh seven and a
half for their team total. But I do think Milwaukee
probably could find their way to one o eight. They've
been trending over for the most part as a team
since post All Star Break, and I would think even
if Fiannis goes twenty minutes now, he's probably gonna be like,
just give me the ball and let me get to
the rim for my twenty minutes. So I'm gonna try
Milwaukee team total over one oh seven and a half.
Like I said, I just missed a better number one
oh six and a half, all right.
Speaker 1: Me and Veno seeing this game a little bit differently,
That's all right. We'll go to Nuggets and Jazz opened
up ten looks like eleven and a half or twelve
total open two forty one and a half like two
forty two and a half or two forty three. Injuries,
Kevin Love and Marketing out for Utah or Denvery, Jones questionable,
Gore and Johnson, Dalfo, Bates and Watson out. It looks
like Denver is shorthanded here once again, but show is
so is Utah. You know, Denver has been trying to
play a little bit more defense. Lately, But I don't know,
I feel like they've been playing so many games at
some point it just wears on you. You know, they're
going to revert back to scoring and trying to just
outscore their opponent to win the game. And the Jazz
home game, you know, you can absolutely like the scoreboard up.
I lean towards over here, maybe even ke Kante George
over his point prop that's kind of a pilling something
like that. What do you think he'll be now?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that. You know, the last couple of games,
we saw Denver hold Boston to one oh three or
be a eighty four excuse me, they scored one oh
three and and you know it was kind of a mirage.
Thought maybe Denver's trying, and in fact, the head coach
keeps saying that they're trying to play defense, David Adelman,
and he keeps telling them defense is going to carry us.
But again, yesterday Minnesota kind of had their way offense.
It's really simple with Denver. I mean, I watched them
yesterday and I wondered, if you know, if they were
offended that we're keeping them awake by having to play
an afternoon game because they were so sluggish in all aspects.
And again, like I said earlier, maybe it's because Minnesota
was energetic. In Minnesota, Minnesota had the game plan, We're
just gonna run every chance we can get. We're gonna
run at you. We've never used walkers with tennis balls
with Denver like we did with the Clippers. But they
kind of looked like and Jokic had a big scoring
game but still didn't look all that engaged. Jamal Murray
especially looked asleep in that game. So I think they
bounced back here. They've lost their hold on a top
four spot in the West with that loss. Yesterday they
faulted number five. You can't lose these types of games.
They probably won't lose it. I don't trust them to
cover it no matter who Utah has on them for
because Denver, I don't think is going to go you know,
balls out, so to speak, defensively in this game. And
like you say at home, these Utah games just wind
up getting over the total. So the options here for
me were to try and play Denver team total over
or play full game over. They set Denver team totals
so hot you almost need one hundred and thirty to
get there, they're asking for one above one twenty seven
and a half. So in that instance, I'd rather not
exclude Utah from the equation, especially at home, and knowing
that Utah's got the younger legs, they're not going to
try to win SKI. So if this thing is close
in the fourth, I could see Utah just missing some shots,
but I still think the better plays to play full
game over.
Speaker 1: We agree on that. One last game on slate, Clippers
and Warriors opened up minus one for the Warriors flip
of favorite here and down from two twenty one as
low as two point fifteen and a half GP two questionable,
Seth and Steph Curt out well, Richard out, Worzingis out,
Collins questionable, done questionable for the Clippers. Honestly, you know,
I don't have very much interest in this game at all.
I'll ask you, I'll pass this one of you, but
this is a complete pass for me.
Speaker 2: Yeah, this one's going to be interesting because Darius Garland
makes his debut here, so I have to watch. Obviously,
you don't expect Darius Garland to light it up. He could,
but he's been out for so long you don't expect it.
But I go back to what Tylu said when they
acquired him, that they acquired him because they want to
be a faster tempo team. For that reason, I need
to watch tonight and just see if LA does pick
up the tempo with him, whether or not they go
over the number or stay under the number or whatever.
I'm just interested to see if they get extra possessions
in the time when Garland's on the floor, if they
grab defensive rebounds and get out and run the way
Tylo indicated they would. That's why they made this trade.
So that's really where my interest level lies, not so
much embedding the game, but just seeing because I think
we could use it down the road here for a
couple of weeks before others would catch on to LA
just totally switching philosophies, but it's what Tyler said they
wanted to do when they acquired him, So for now,
until I see differently, I'm gonna believe him and see
if that's what we get tonight. If we don't get that,
if we get slow paced Clippers, then obviously it might
take time for them to work that and implement that
into their system. But I'm gonna watch it for that reason.
Ski just to see if Garland is somebody who ignites
a faster pace or the pace that the head coach wants. Yeah,
you got yourself muted.
Speaker 1: I bet I was saying he does like to play
a pace. But you know, I'll probably just watch and
learn on this one. Here that's the NBA car for today,
so you know what it is my fault. I don't
have the graphic for the promos, but I will mention
before we do these best bets, they have what buy
three days, get three days free, So I believe that's
sixty nine dollars. You get six day all access every
bet that you know, either Rob or myself makes, and
on that note, I will pass it to you Robno,
I'll ask you if there's anything else you like to promote,
and if you have a best bet for the show,
you know we love to hear it.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I will say that is the top promotion out
of Wager twelve four this week. I think there's another
one that's a yearly subscription that they just sent out.
But the three and get three three days, buy three days,
get three free is pretty especially at this time of
year SKI when the college basketball conference tournaments are coming.
We had our first college basketball conference tournament ging tonight
out of the Horizon League. Most of these leagues are
either finished or winding down within the next four or
five days, and we're gonna have just wall to wall action.
So it's pretty nice package. Gets six days for the
price of three. Best bet I didn't leave one on Friday.
I hate doing that, but I do have one that
I bet. We talked about it. We sort of disagreed
on the outlook of the game, but I do think
the Bucks find their way over one oh seven and
a half. I scoured while we were talking SKI and
I found myself a one oh six and a half.
I won't mention where I found it, because we don't
like to do this on this network, but I did
find one oh six and a half. A couple of
them out there still. If you can find it, play it.
But I'm gonna use one o seven and a half
to be fair to the chat here of Milwaukee Bucks
team total over one oh seven and a half.
Speaker 1: All right, good stuff from Vino and you know what, Oh,
you know, I will mention. I will mention that they
have the you can get to college basketball through the end,
which I believe is April sixth for two nineteen and
I'm fifty and thirty five so far on the season
in college basketball. If you would like to be involved,
all right, for my best bet, it's not many times,
so we'll go ahead, and we'll go ahead and do this.
Speaker 2: That's my dog, my dog.
Speaker 1: That's my dog. And anybody gotta say anything, you let
me know that's my dog.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Tonight, we are going with the dirty, stinking, filthy dog
for our best bet, best bet of the day, and
that's the Wizards plus fifteen and a half. I mean,
we talked about it. This is an absolute look over
sleepy spot, however you want to call it for the
Rockets third straight road game, looking at the Washington Widges
on the other side, knowing you have two days off
and get to go home after this, they just want
to go home. They know they can win this game.
They don't necessarily care about winning it by fifteen and
half points. And we have some offense on the other side.
We've got Keyshawn George ruled in. You know, we have
a couple other guys that we can trust to get
some buckets. So in this spot, for my best bet,
I'll go with the dirty Dog of the Day Wizards
plus fifteen and a half. What do you think about that?
Speaker 2: You know, I was when you put it up, I
was just kind of holding my nose. I knew it
was gonna smell. So I tell you and again, And
We've done this a couple of times. Ski these plays,
these spot plays, situational plays like the Wizards, they make
so much sense. And all we're asking one of these
filthy dogs to do is come through one time so
we can have a little faith in you. But I
don't see any reason why you would lay with the
Rockets here to be the Wizards. And even as you
pointed out, which would be more my style would be
Wizard team total over one oh five and a half
looks like that's a that's a pretty decent way to go.
Speaker 1: To absolutely so that I'll wrap up the show quick
and easy. Four games did in about twenty one minutes.
So you know, I always appreciate you taking the time
to cut the games break them down with me. Helps
my process, you know. Sure we help everybody else out there,
at least a little bit. People in the chat, We
do appreciate you all as well. I'm looking here, it
looks like we do have a good amount of games
for tomorrow, so we'll have a lot more to talk
about till then. Best of luck everybody on all your action,
and we will catch you guys tomorrow