WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.200 --> 00:00:03.919 Regarding that sideways action, I wanted to point out, you know, 2 00:00:04.000 --> 00:00:06.400 one of the primary ingredients is is the fact that 3 00:00:06.480 --> 00:00:09.400 whales are doing very little. 4 00:00:10.039 --> 00:00:11.759 This is just the total. 5 00:00:11.400 --> 00:00:15.039 Amount of whale transactions, Tony. So we're looking at the 6 00:00:15.119 --> 00:00:19.280 amount of one hundred k plus transactions happening per day 7 00:00:19.839 --> 00:00:23.239 or one million dollar plus transactions happening per day. And 8 00:00:23.640 --> 00:00:25.960 this is just the past six months. And you can see, 9 00:00:26.039 --> 00:00:28.120 I mean, the pattern is very obvious. 10 00:00:28.920 --> 00:00:31.000 They're both just declining like crazy. 11 00:00:31.079 --> 00:00:39.759 Because hey, everyone, welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. I'm 12 00:00:39.799 --> 00:00:42.359 your host, Tony Edward, and joining me today is Brian 13 00:00:42.439 --> 00:00:44.560 from Sentiment, and as you all know, we're going to 14 00:00:44.600 --> 00:00:46.920 do a deep dive into the metrics or Bitcoin and 15 00:00:47.000 --> 00:00:49.920 all coins, looking at sentiment and much more to get 16 00:00:49.920 --> 00:00:52.320 an understanding of where the market's at and where it 17 00:00:52.439 --> 00:00:53.280 may go next. 18 00:00:53.640 --> 00:00:55.920 Brian, great to see you. Good to see you, Tony. 19 00:00:56.200 --> 00:00:59.880 Crazy times in the markets obviously, and as we were 20 00:01:00.079 --> 00:01:04.159 but speaking about right before we started this call, you know, 21 00:01:04.239 --> 00:01:06.359 the best thing we can do is except that we 22 00:01:06.519 --> 00:01:10.519 are on the outside and we know very little about 23 00:01:10.560 --> 00:01:13.719 the macroeconomic situation going on right now. 24 00:01:14.519 --> 00:01:15.640 Yeah, that's a great point. 25 00:01:15.920 --> 00:01:18.200 I think you almost have to throw the charts out 26 00:01:18.239 --> 00:01:21.959 the window because President Trump or some news can break 27 00:01:22.000 --> 00:01:23.799 and it can move the markets in one direction the 28 00:01:23.840 --> 00:01:27.079 other and throughout your models. Right, not to say that 29 00:01:27.159 --> 00:01:30.120 you get rid of those things entirely, it's just there's 30 00:01:30.159 --> 00:01:32.760 so much uncertainty, Brian, like you kind of have to 31 00:01:32.799 --> 00:01:33.359 wait it out. 32 00:01:34.000 --> 00:01:36.879 Yeah, i'd say, I mean, there are definitely mini swings 33 00:01:36.920 --> 00:01:40.719 that are still being caused by crypto sentiment, and you know, 34 00:01:40.799 --> 00:01:44.359 whales doing this or that. But you have to take 35 00:01:44.400 --> 00:01:46.920 everything that's going on on the metric side with a 36 00:01:46.959 --> 00:01:49.280 bit of a grain of salt. I say that as 37 00:01:49.280 --> 00:01:52.000 someone who still finds our own data very valuable. It's 38 00:01:52.079 --> 00:01:57.359 just when you've got something that's impacting the S and 39 00:01:57.400 --> 00:02:01.280 P five hundred, therefore crypto on a daily basis, it's 40 00:02:01.319 --> 00:02:03.480 just going to take precedent until we get some more 41 00:02:03.519 --> 00:02:07.599 clarity on this entire situation. How much of it is 42 00:02:07.760 --> 00:02:11.840 fabricated or manufactured by Trump in the US, how much 43 00:02:11.919 --> 00:02:16.039 is legitimate and this is a obviously it's a very 44 00:02:16.080 --> 00:02:18.280 real war, but how much of it is a deliberate 45 00:02:19.199 --> 00:02:22.159 decision to make this continue to stretch out and go 46 00:02:22.199 --> 00:02:23.319 as long as it needs to go. 47 00:02:24.400 --> 00:02:29.800 Yeah, for sure, and I'm personally not buying or doing 48 00:02:29.800 --> 00:02:32.800 anything right now because I'm gonna wait for the dust 49 00:02:32.879 --> 00:02:35.120 to settle a bit. I know there's some sort of 50 00:02:35.159 --> 00:02:40.400 deadline today for Iran to open up the straight and look. 51 00:02:40.439 --> 00:02:44.000 Trump put out a tweet today which is pretty wild, 52 00:02:44.039 --> 00:02:47.639 and I'm like, okay, I'm not even gonna touch the markets. 53 00:02:47.719 --> 00:02:49.759 This is too crazy. Yeah. 54 00:02:49.840 --> 00:02:52.080 Like I said right before the call, I've got a 55 00:02:52.159 --> 00:02:54.120 queued up and maybe we can just read the wording 56 00:02:54.319 --> 00:02:56.879 because it just was posted about four hours ago. Most 57 00:02:56.879 --> 00:03:00.759 of you may not have seen it yet, but here 58 00:03:00.960 --> 00:03:05.039 he said on truth Social that a whole civilization will 59 00:03:05.039 --> 00:03:07.919 die tonight and never to be brought back again. I 60 00:03:07.960 --> 00:03:10.360 don't want that to happen, but it probably will. Just 61 00:03:10.360 --> 00:03:14.919 a quick pause, just so people understand. He isn't communicating 62 00:03:14.960 --> 00:03:19.599 this to the American people. He is communicating this directly 63 00:03:19.639 --> 00:03:23.759 to Iran. And this is no matter what side of 64 00:03:23.759 --> 00:03:27.360 the political spectrum Iran. When he's posting things on truth 65 00:03:27.400 --> 00:03:31.280 social about how you know he has to do this 66 00:03:31.560 --> 00:03:32.919 or it's a shame that. 67 00:03:32.919 --> 00:03:34.240 Iran won't capitulate. 68 00:03:34.319 --> 00:03:39.800 He isn't telling like his Republican or Democratic or anyone 69 00:03:40.199 --> 00:03:45.000 who's in the US followers. He's trying to communicate through 70 00:03:45.039 --> 00:03:49.599 his social media as a negotiation tactic for the other 71 00:03:49.680 --> 00:03:53.000 side to listen to and go hmm. I guess he's serious. 72 00:03:53.159 --> 00:03:56.360 We should listen now and cave to whatever his demands are. 73 00:03:56.719 --> 00:03:59.639 And the latest demands were, of course, to open the 74 00:03:59.639 --> 00:04:03.680 straight up moves, which they have a deadline to do today. 75 00:04:04.479 --> 00:04:06.400 I don't know the exact timing, but I know it's 76 00:04:06.400 --> 00:04:08.479 in the next few hours from the time of this recording. 77 00:04:10.840 --> 00:04:14.960 We've seen it before with tariffs, where he is communicating 78 00:04:15.000 --> 00:04:18.399 with China or he's communicating with a European country in 79 00:04:18.519 --> 00:04:23.560 order to get what he wants to pass, and I 80 00:04:23.560 --> 00:04:25.519 think this is the same situation and it's going to 81 00:04:25.560 --> 00:04:30.879 be very interesting. What I think will happen most likely 82 00:04:31.120 --> 00:04:34.639 is something gets pushed back. There will be some minor 83 00:04:35.600 --> 00:04:39.000 attacks of some type, but it won't be to the 84 00:04:39.079 --> 00:04:42.759 extent of which he finishes this post on which I'll 85 00:04:42.759 --> 00:04:45.839 read really quick. However, now that we have complete and 86 00:04:45.879 --> 00:04:49.560 total regime change where different, smarter and less radicalized minds prevail, 87 00:04:49.920 --> 00:04:52.959 maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen. 88 00:04:53.120 --> 00:04:55.560 Who knows all CAFs. We will find out tonight. 89 00:04:55.600 --> 00:04:57.319 One of the most important moments in the long and 90 00:04:57.360 --> 00:05:00.000 complex history of the world. Forty seven years of extra 91 00:05:00.079 --> 00:05:02.319 or corruption and death will finally end. God bless the 92 00:05:02.319 --> 00:05:07.000 great people of Iran. So you know, even that last sentence, 93 00:05:07.040 --> 00:05:09.519 he's trying to separate. You know, hey, I still respect 94 00:05:09.519 --> 00:05:12.920 the people there. It's just your leaders who don't want 95 00:05:12.959 --> 00:05:17.680 to listen to what I am demanding. So what's your 96 00:05:17.680 --> 00:05:18.680 take on all that, Tony? 97 00:05:19.120 --> 00:05:21.519 Yeah, I know I agree with you, Like, obviously this 98 00:05:21.680 --> 00:05:25.199 is like part of his negotiation tactic and so forth. 99 00:05:25.959 --> 00:05:28.680 But I think the big takeaway for folks is when 100 00:05:28.680 --> 00:05:32.680 you do something like this publicly, it affects markets. It 101 00:05:32.759 --> 00:05:37.199 puts fear, uncertainty, doubt, all those things out there. And 102 00:05:37.319 --> 00:05:40.279 this is where we find ourselves as investors looking at 103 00:05:40.319 --> 00:05:44.000 the charts and so forth. That while look like, you know, 104 00:05:44.079 --> 00:05:46.839 he clearly surmised it well that he's not putting this 105 00:05:46.920 --> 00:05:49.079 out here for the American people, but it's for you know, 106 00:05:49.319 --> 00:05:53.519 the folks in Iran or the government. And but this 107 00:05:53.680 --> 00:05:56.560 type of stuff does not help us as investors. 108 00:05:57.720 --> 00:06:01.920 Yeah, uncertainty is usually the the worst ingredient or the 109 00:06:01.920 --> 00:06:05.480 most bearish ingredient for markets. I talk about it on 110 00:06:05.839 --> 00:06:08.040 our This Week in Crypto Show on our YouTube channel 111 00:06:08.079 --> 00:06:15.040 with our founder Maxim. Sometimes bad news is the second 112 00:06:15.079 --> 00:06:19.439 worst outcome, and unknown news is the worst outcome because 113 00:06:19.519 --> 00:06:23.879 when it's completely unknown whether something incredibly good or incredibly 114 00:06:23.879 --> 00:06:27.560 bad is about to happen, you've got people just sitting 115 00:06:27.639 --> 00:06:31.879 on the sidelines, stagnating, doing nothing, and then volume drives 116 00:06:31.959 --> 00:06:36.079 up and the and markets tend to decline as a result. 117 00:06:36.439 --> 00:06:37.439 If it's bad news. 118 00:06:37.759 --> 00:06:40.680 You've got shorters that jump in trying to take advantage, 119 00:06:40.680 --> 00:06:42.839 You've got longers trying to buy the dip, and there's at. 120 00:06:42.800 --> 00:06:44.480 Least utility in crypto. 121 00:06:45.519 --> 00:06:48.079 As weird as that sounds, you know, you think about 122 00:06:48.120 --> 00:06:51.959 the tariffs. The worst moment was the beginning of April 123 00:06:52.120 --> 00:06:54.439 of twenty twenty five, when you had the big board 124 00:06:54.519 --> 00:06:57.480 of all the different countries and what percentages they're going 125 00:06:57.519 --> 00:07:02.160 to get their tariffs on. And once it was clarified 126 00:07:02.560 --> 00:07:06.439 and the tariffs actually went into effect the following week, 127 00:07:06.959 --> 00:07:10.360 markets actually started getting better. The news was still bad, 128 00:07:10.519 --> 00:07:13.920 the tariffs existed, but markets started to climb because at 129 00:07:14.040 --> 00:07:19.040 least people knew what to expect and the dust had settled. 130 00:07:19.439 --> 00:07:22.279 Whether it was good or bad, depending on your perspective 131 00:07:22.319 --> 00:07:23.040 on these tariffs. 132 00:07:23.920 --> 00:07:27.399 Yeah, absolutely, and my hope is that there's some sort 133 00:07:27.439 --> 00:07:31.040 of resolution soon, like you mentioned earlier, possibly an extension, 134 00:07:31.560 --> 00:07:33.800 and we get some relief. So maybe we could take 135 00:07:33.800 --> 00:07:38.720 a look at sentiment around bitcoin and different crypto assets 136 00:07:38.759 --> 00:07:40.199 and how people are feeling right now. 137 00:07:40.720 --> 00:07:44.800 Absolutely so, sentiment is kind of just hovering in the middle. 138 00:07:44.839 --> 00:07:47.000 I can zoom into just the last months. We don't 139 00:07:47.040 --> 00:07:51.480 need to go back six months here, So it's gone 140 00:07:51.560 --> 00:07:55.079 back and forth as you would expect, especially around the 141 00:07:55.160 --> 00:07:59.040 end of March when we were threatening to go below 142 00:07:59.120 --> 00:08:03.399 sixty five. I think we did actually technically go to 143 00:08:03.519 --> 00:08:07.399 like sixty four something at some point, and sentiment has 144 00:08:07.439 --> 00:08:11.360 mostly just followed the trend of where prices are going. 145 00:08:11.560 --> 00:08:12.920 Yes, they still. 146 00:08:12.839 --> 00:08:17.800 Overreact or underreact to you know, specific breaking news or 147 00:08:17.839 --> 00:08:22.639 an air strike that was particularly impactful, but you can 148 00:08:22.680 --> 00:08:26.480 see the positive spikes here. The two most positive sentiment 149 00:08:26.800 --> 00:08:30.279 days of March happened right at those local tops, and 150 00:08:30.319 --> 00:08:33.559 that's not an accident. You want to take profit when 151 00:08:33.600 --> 00:08:36.600 people are getting euphoric, especially if it's just related to 152 00:08:36.759 --> 00:08:39.639 you know, prices going above seventy three K or even 153 00:08:39.679 --> 00:08:41.039 getting above seventy five K. 154 00:08:41.159 --> 00:08:42.279 Here on March sixteenth. 155 00:08:42.720 --> 00:08:45.399 These are the times to take profit, and these are 156 00:08:45.440 --> 00:08:50.399 the times where you can confidently buy because the probability 157 00:08:50.519 --> 00:08:55.080 is much higher that we will rebound when everyone is negative, 158 00:08:55.480 --> 00:08:58.960 you know, saying bitcoin is dead, crypto is going to zero, 159 00:08:59.080 --> 00:09:01.519 stuff like that. So you can see the last local 160 00:09:01.559 --> 00:09:06.279 top happened when we got just above seventy k yesterday 161 00:09:06.639 --> 00:09:09.559 and now it's back in the middle of the road 162 00:09:10.480 --> 00:09:15.559 area because we're waiting on what's going to happen with Trump, 163 00:09:15.639 --> 00:09:16.759 Andy Ron's deadline. 164 00:09:17.440 --> 00:09:21.080 Yeah, it's the market's been really where too. It's you know, 165 00:09:21.120 --> 00:09:24.279 you look at bitcoins, charge just been chopping sideways, right, 166 00:09:25.120 --> 00:09:29.240 it's really boring. I'm surprised it, but maybe I don't know. 167 00:09:29.519 --> 00:09:32.039 It's priced in some of the news already. But if 168 00:09:32.039 --> 00:09:36.440 something more severe happens, you know, we could see a 169 00:09:36.559 --> 00:09:39.600 dump to further down, but who knows at this. 170 00:09:40.360 --> 00:09:44.879 Yeah, and regarding that sideways action, I wanted to point out, 171 00:09:44.960 --> 00:09:47.240 you know, one of the primary ingredients is is the 172 00:09:47.279 --> 00:09:50.639 fact that whales are doing very little. 173 00:09:51.080 --> 00:09:51.279 Uh. 174 00:09:51.320 --> 00:09:54.759 This is just the total amount of whale transactions Tony. 175 00:09:54.840 --> 00:09:58.440 So we're looking at the amount of one hundred k 176 00:09:58.559 --> 00:10:02.440 plus transactions happen per day or one million dollar plus 177 00:10:02.480 --> 00:10:05.919 transactions happening per day. And this is just the past 178 00:10:05.960 --> 00:10:08.399 six months, and you can see, I mean, the pattern 179 00:10:08.480 --> 00:10:12.720 is very obvious. They're both just declining like crazy because 180 00:10:13.240 --> 00:10:15.759 even whales aren't quite sure what to make of everything. 181 00:10:16.679 --> 00:10:19.600 You can see this sharp decline really happened right around 182 00:10:19.639 --> 00:10:23.879 the beginning of March when the war really became a war. 183 00:10:25.120 --> 00:10:29.360 And I don't see this changing until there's a clear 184 00:10:29.440 --> 00:10:34.840 path to what's next in terms of the war resolving 185 00:10:35.039 --> 00:10:40.200 or the war getting worse. But this negotiation tactic thing 186 00:10:40.279 --> 00:10:43.279 through through social you know, Iran is of course using 187 00:10:43.279 --> 00:10:47.320 social media as well releasing videos. Same on both sides, 188 00:10:47.360 --> 00:10:52.080 they're both communicating to the people, but really as a 189 00:10:52.120 --> 00:10:56.679 negotiation tactic for the other sides, world leaders to see. 190 00:10:57.279 --> 00:10:58.519 And just the. 191 00:10:58.440 --> 00:11:03.200 Overall utility of crypto is drying up on both the 192 00:11:03.200 --> 00:11:07.399 whale side as well as just from an overall active 193 00:11:07.399 --> 00:11:10.519 address and network growth side. You can see these trend lines, 194 00:11:10.559 --> 00:11:13.519 orange being the amount of unique addresses interacting on a 195 00:11:13.600 --> 00:11:18.399 daily basis, Purple being the amount of new addresses being 196 00:11:18.399 --> 00:11:22.080 created on a daily basis. Like they've just significantly dropped 197 00:11:22.480 --> 00:11:25.840 seven hundred and thirty k or so active addresses per 198 00:11:25.919 --> 00:11:30.200 day six months ago versus six nine k today, that's 199 00:11:30.559 --> 00:11:34.360 a pretty steep drop. So that's that's really one of 200 00:11:34.399 --> 00:11:37.720 the main explanations for the sideways movement is there really 201 00:11:37.799 --> 00:11:40.279 isn't going to be much volatility when there's less and 202 00:11:40.360 --> 00:11:44.200 less trading, less and less transferring, and less and less 203 00:11:44.399 --> 00:11:46.840 new wallet's being created every single day. 204 00:11:47.919 --> 00:11:53.120 Yeah, that is so telling. And boy, maybe it's it's 205 00:11:53.360 --> 00:11:55.440 the whales are not doing anything and they're just sitting 206 00:11:55.440 --> 00:11:57.759 on a sideline for the most part. That's very telling 207 00:11:57.840 --> 00:12:01.360 that this situation maybe they and then may know something 208 00:12:01.440 --> 00:12:04.200 right and like this thing could escalate and get worse. 209 00:12:04.879 --> 00:12:07.399 Let's hold off exactly. 210 00:12:07.720 --> 00:12:11.480 And I don't think that just because someone has thousands 211 00:12:11.480 --> 00:12:13.919 of bitcoin or hundreds of bitcoin and it doesn't mean 212 00:12:13.919 --> 00:12:16.039 that they're in the inner circle and know what's next 213 00:12:16.039 --> 00:12:19.039 for Trump. Many of them are just like us and 214 00:12:19.080 --> 00:12:21.159 they're completely in the dark and reading the news on 215 00:12:21.399 --> 00:12:24.440 X and going, well, I don't know what's going to happen. 216 00:12:24.519 --> 00:12:28.200 I just have to sit on my on my coins 217 00:12:28.279 --> 00:12:30.080 right now. I don't want to panic sell and I 218 00:12:30.120 --> 00:12:33.399 don't want to you know, buy any dips knowing that 219 00:12:33.480 --> 00:12:36.879 I could be dead wrong because of how unpredictable the 220 00:12:36.879 --> 00:12:38.559 world is right now. And you can see with the 221 00:12:38.559 --> 00:12:41.679 bright green line here that represents the ten to ten 222 00:12:41.799 --> 00:12:46.399 k BTC wallets and they're collective supply held. This is 223 00:12:46.679 --> 00:12:51.440 like one of the most sideways they've looked for months. 224 00:12:51.960 --> 00:12:53.639 Usually there's at least a little bit of up and 225 00:12:53.679 --> 00:12:55.919 down movement, but you know, once we got into the 226 00:12:55.960 --> 00:12:59.559 third week of March, we kind of declined, and then 227 00:12:59.720 --> 00:13:03.759 at the end of March it's barely moved. And what's 228 00:13:04.200 --> 00:13:08.799 interesting is retail, on the other hand, is just defiantly 229 00:13:08.840 --> 00:13:14.279 buying dips. Like even now, since January twentieth, we go 230 00:13:14.360 --> 00:13:19.039 back almost three months, they're continuing to climb and accumulate 231 00:13:19.080 --> 00:13:20.639 more and more, and of course they don't own a 232 00:13:20.639 --> 00:13:23.720 big chunk, they only own a little over a quarter 233 00:13:23.799 --> 00:13:27.919 percent of the supply. But what this redline represents is 234 00:13:27.960 --> 00:13:33.039 their overall call it optimism. I know we're already we 235 00:13:33.080 --> 00:13:36.240 looked at sentiment overall in terms of social media commentary, 236 00:13:36.720 --> 00:13:40.200 but in terms of what the actual data indicates with 237 00:13:40.279 --> 00:13:45.120 their bags, they're still confident that the sixty k's that 238 00:13:45.120 --> 00:13:48.080 we're in right now is low and we're eventually going 239 00:13:48.120 --> 00:13:50.080 to return back to one hundred k, and they're viewing 240 00:13:50.120 --> 00:13:55.200 all of this as buy into the fear, as a 241 00:13:55.320 --> 00:13:58.080 buy into the fear situation that they can take advantage of. 242 00:13:58.679 --> 00:14:04.240 Man telling Brian that sideways right, that line flat is flat? 243 00:14:04.480 --> 00:14:07.960 Yeah, I mean, how much can it really move when 244 00:14:07.960 --> 00:14:12.000 the whale transactions itself are so low. It's just it's 245 00:14:12.000 --> 00:14:17.080 pretty shocking that even those key stakeholders can't really find 246 00:14:17.600 --> 00:14:20.480 an opportunity to take advantage of where we're at right now. 247 00:14:21.320 --> 00:14:23.720 So on a note, what does the MBRV look like 248 00:14:23.759 --> 00:14:30.639 for bitcoin? Yeah, right now, it's good news. We're still 249 00:14:30.639 --> 00:14:36.279 in a short term a slight deficit when it's normally 250 00:14:36.320 --> 00:14:39.039 a zero sum game. So wallets that have been active 251 00:14:39.080 --> 00:14:42.559 in the past thirty days, pardon me, are down about 252 00:14:42.559 --> 00:14:45.519 two percent, and the wallets that have been active in 253 00:14:45.559 --> 00:14:48.559 the past year are down about twenty eight percent. When 254 00:14:48.600 --> 00:14:51.600 both of these lines are in negative territory, it means 255 00:14:51.600 --> 00:14:54.799 that the probability of a rise is higher than average, 256 00:14:54.799 --> 00:14:59.039 meaning you buying into your position further or adding on 257 00:15:00.159 --> 00:15:02.919 doing so at a lower risk than the average point 258 00:15:02.919 --> 00:15:06.960 in bitcoin's history. So there is some upside here if 259 00:15:07.039 --> 00:15:09.519 you can be patient. Doesn't mean tomorrow things are going 260 00:15:09.559 --> 00:15:12.000 to jump back above seventy K or seventy five K. 261 00:15:12.639 --> 00:15:17.039 It means that you adding on is justified based on 262 00:15:17.159 --> 00:15:19.960 the amount of quote unquote blood in the streets. 263 00:15:20.240 --> 00:15:23.240 Yeah, I mean, certainly there could be more downside. But 264 00:15:23.919 --> 00:15:27.159 you know, I've been telling people outside of this Iran situation, 265 00:15:27.240 --> 00:15:30.759 and everything's happening. It's still all time, you know, if 266 00:15:30.759 --> 00:15:32.840 you're looking at it from a yearly standpoint, a great 267 00:15:33.279 --> 00:15:37.080 opportunity to start dollar cost averaging in. And while no 268 00:15:37.080 --> 00:15:39.559 one can call the exact bottom, I believe we are 269 00:15:39.559 --> 00:15:43.000 in a bottom zone. We've crashed down obviously big time, 270 00:15:43.000 --> 00:15:45.360 from one to twenty six one hundred and twenty six 271 00:15:45.399 --> 00:15:48.759 thousand in October of last year. And if you have 272 00:15:48.840 --> 00:15:52.399 a long term enough horizon, these are very good entries. 273 00:15:52.440 --> 00:15:54.960 Now if you're looking I need to make you know, 274 00:15:55.000 --> 00:15:57.639 one hundreds of thousands of dollars by next month not 275 00:15:57.679 --> 00:15:59.960 a good probably not a good idea. 276 00:16:00.080 --> 00:16:04.039 Yeah, exactly. And you know that that was almost exactly 277 00:16:04.080 --> 00:16:06.399 six months ago. Now, I guess the ultime I was 278 00:16:06.440 --> 00:16:09.559 like October fifth, But you can see how the MVRV, 279 00:16:10.200 --> 00:16:13.840 especially the long term MVRV, was still above water as 280 00:16:13.919 --> 00:16:17.559 prices were falling, and it didn't really get below until 281 00:16:17.679 --> 00:16:21.120 mid November crashed all the way down to about what 282 00:16:21.240 --> 00:16:23.799 the low eighty ks or so, and that's when you 283 00:16:23.840 --> 00:16:27.200 can see that we were in kind of a similar 284 00:16:27.240 --> 00:16:30.440 situation where we're at now both lines well below zero percent. 285 00:16:30.519 --> 00:16:32.240 I guess right now the orange line is just a 286 00:16:32.240 --> 00:16:35.080 little below zero, but the blue line is worse than 287 00:16:35.120 --> 00:16:37.559 what it was back then. And then we got that 288 00:16:38.320 --> 00:16:40.360 relief rally going on, and it went all the way 289 00:16:40.440 --> 00:16:44.159 up until mid January before we had the really big 290 00:16:44.200 --> 00:16:49.720 dip in early February. You see the same situation, both 291 00:16:49.759 --> 00:16:53.639 lines well below zero, and then we get a minor 292 00:16:53.679 --> 00:16:56.159 relief rally. So I guess really what we would want 293 00:16:56.159 --> 00:17:00.000 to see is the orange line potentially get below ten percent. 294 00:17:00.240 --> 00:17:03.240 If it does get down that far. There's no guarantee 295 00:17:03.279 --> 00:17:06.640 it will, but that's when you've got like a historically 296 00:17:07.880 --> 00:17:10.839 good opportunity zone that matches what we saw in early 297 00:17:10.880 --> 00:17:12.640 February and late November. 298 00:17:13.480 --> 00:17:18.839 Yeah, and usually what we've seen when bigcointeers, you know, 299 00:17:18.920 --> 00:17:21.119 those all time lows. And I think there may be 300 00:17:21.160 --> 00:17:24.319 another leg down, not guaranteed, of course, let's say it 301 00:17:24.319 --> 00:17:26.119 gets it a fifty case. I think there's gonna be 302 00:17:26.119 --> 00:17:28.440 a lot of buying historic from what we've seen historically, 303 00:17:28.480 --> 00:17:30.400 like Wales and all these guys are going to buy up. 304 00:17:30.599 --> 00:17:33.079 Well at that point, you know, the majority of folks 305 00:17:33.160 --> 00:17:36.000 retail are going to be scared as hell, right, and 306 00:17:36.039 --> 00:17:37.960 there's going to be some big narrative, maybe the war 307 00:17:38.079 --> 00:17:41.799 escalades or something else, and it's the same story over 308 00:17:41.880 --> 00:17:45.319 and over. Right, that would be the amazing time to 309 00:17:45.559 --> 00:17:47.680 grab it up. But as usual, there's going to be 310 00:17:47.720 --> 00:17:48.319 a lot of fear. 311 00:17:49.640 --> 00:17:50.039 Agreed. 312 00:17:50.119 --> 00:17:52.519 Yeah, people are so used to the sixty ks now 313 00:17:52.599 --> 00:17:55.720 it doesn't feel like a scary number anymore, as simple 314 00:17:55.720 --> 00:17:58.480 as that sounds. And once if we do get to 315 00:17:58.519 --> 00:18:03.799 the fifty ks, that's going to be a psychological change 316 00:18:04.039 --> 00:18:06.920 for the crowd, and they're going to start thinking then 317 00:18:07.240 --> 00:18:10.240 about what if it's going to forty k, thirty K 318 00:18:10.880 --> 00:18:15.200 And you'll one hundred percent see some fear really trickle 319 00:18:15.240 --> 00:18:19.000 in at that point. And if we need to have 320 00:18:19.079 --> 00:18:22.599 that stage of ultimate fear in order to get the 321 00:18:22.680 --> 00:18:25.599 long term rally that so many people are waiting for, 322 00:18:26.160 --> 00:18:30.200 it's going to be once we breach you know, sixty 323 00:18:30.279 --> 00:18:35.799 K and start really testing a lot of holder's patients 324 00:18:35.880 --> 00:18:38.319 especially on the retail side. We need to see retail 325 00:18:38.519 --> 00:18:44.720 just start to lose their faith that crypto and bitcoin 326 00:18:45.480 --> 00:18:47.640 are long term investments they can believe in. 327 00:18:48.400 --> 00:18:50.880 M How about we. 328 00:18:50.839 --> 00:18:54.519 Look at the MVRV for Ethereum. 329 00:18:54.559 --> 00:19:00.279 Sure, yeah, so Ethereum's actually slightly outpaced Bitcoin. I was 330 00:19:00.319 --> 00:19:04.519 looking at the screener just to check on their returns. Yeah, 331 00:19:04.599 --> 00:19:08.119 Ethereum's up like one percent in the past week, while 332 00:19:08.119 --> 00:19:11.319 Bitcoin was down. I think I saw like zero point 333 00:19:11.400 --> 00:19:14.519 five percent, So it's just slightly outpacing it. You can 334 00:19:14.559 --> 00:19:18.079 see network growth and active addresses, by the way, declining 335 00:19:18.119 --> 00:19:22.119 again after sort of an unusual peak at the beginning 336 00:19:22.160 --> 00:19:25.480 of February. But from what I see on the mvr 337 00:19:25.599 --> 00:19:28.799 V end it's almost identical negative one and a half 338 00:19:28.799 --> 00:19:34.160 percent for thirty day and actually technically negative zero point 339 00:19:34.240 --> 00:19:36.759 six percent for thirty day and negative thirty one percent 340 00:19:36.839 --> 00:19:40.799 for three sixty five day, So actually a little more 341 00:19:40.920 --> 00:19:44.119 opportunity on the long term side and almost identical on 342 00:19:44.160 --> 00:19:49.200 the short term side. So I wouldn't really differentiate those 343 00:19:49.200 --> 00:19:52.119 tiny margins much. Both are telling the same story Bitcoin 344 00:19:52.160 --> 00:19:53.920 and Ethereum. 345 00:19:53.920 --> 00:19:57.960 And then how about sentiment for etherorem m HM. 346 00:19:58.599 --> 00:20:00.519 Right now, So on sentiment. 347 00:20:00.559 --> 00:20:05.119 You can lock the asset to anything and that way 348 00:20:05.160 --> 00:20:08.160 it won't change if you're looking up like a secondary asset. 349 00:20:08.599 --> 00:20:12.119 But now I've unlocked them, and it looks maybe slightly 350 00:20:12.160 --> 00:20:14.960 more negative on ethereum for whatever reason. It had a 351 00:20:15.039 --> 00:20:21.359 huge negative sentiment day two days ago Sunday the fifth, 352 00:20:21.480 --> 00:20:24.880 and it's rebounded a little, but still it's obvious that 353 00:20:25.000 --> 00:20:29.319 the positive sentiment that we saw more in mid March 354 00:20:29.680 --> 00:20:34.559 has dissolved and it's changed to mostly negative. So this 355 00:20:34.640 --> 00:20:38.240 is a little more on a bearish sentiment track compared 356 00:20:38.240 --> 00:20:39.839 to Bitcoin's more neutral story. 357 00:20:40.640 --> 00:20:42.880 Yeah, I mean it seems like most all coins are 358 00:20:42.920 --> 00:20:45.000 probably going to be in the same position as eth 359 00:20:46.359 --> 00:20:48.960 just because it's wild. Other like, maybe we could look 360 00:20:49.000 --> 00:20:53.400 at XRP now XRP sentiment and yeah, which has done 361 00:20:53.680 --> 00:20:57.039 really poorly. By the way, XRP is underperforming by a 362 00:20:57.079 --> 00:21:00.720 lot compared to some of the other blue chips. Yeah, 363 00:21:00.759 --> 00:21:01.640 I'm not surprised. 364 00:21:01.680 --> 00:21:04.920 It's seeing some very negative sentiment right now, and this 365 00:21:04.960 --> 00:21:08.359 can be a good sign for you long term XRP holders. 366 00:21:09.200 --> 00:21:11.720 If you see the top left of my screen, that 367 00:21:11.920 --> 00:21:16.400 yellow yellow bar is showing zero point eighty six in 368 00:21:16.480 --> 00:21:19.880 terms of positive versus negative sentiment ratio. That means that 369 00:21:20.119 --> 00:21:24.559 there are more bearish comments across x, Reddit, Telegram, et 370 00:21:24.559 --> 00:21:28.160 cetera than there are bullish comments. Not surprised, And I'm 371 00:21:28.160 --> 00:21:30.279 sure it's probably gonna be the same for Solana, right 372 00:21:31.160 --> 00:21:31.640 or some. 373 00:21:31.559 --> 00:21:32.200 I would assume. 374 00:21:32.279 --> 00:21:37.480 So, Yeah, Solana has also performed pretty poorly, almost as 375 00:21:37.480 --> 00:21:42.640 bad as XRP since that top in mid March. Surprisingly, 376 00:21:42.680 --> 00:21:46.200 it's seeing some pretty positive sentiment. Who knows why, I 377 00:21:46.200 --> 00:21:47.880 don't think it. Yeah, go ahead, all right. 378 00:21:48.039 --> 00:21:50.640 They do have a summit coming up, so it may 379 00:21:50.680 --> 00:21:53.240 be I'm actually going to be attending that summit on Monday. 380 00:21:53.599 --> 00:21:54.799 Yeah, so they. 381 00:21:54.680 --> 00:21:57.039 Have some events going on, so that might be contributing 382 00:21:57.079 --> 00:21:58.000 to some of the sentiment. 383 00:21:58.640 --> 00:22:02.119 Makes sense, And that's why sentiment isn't always a perfect science, 384 00:22:02.160 --> 00:22:08.079 because it can get a little oversaturated by some event 385 00:22:08.160 --> 00:22:11.960 news or some update that the coin had, and suddenly 386 00:22:11.960 --> 00:22:15.720 there's just more discussion about it, and that will trickle 387 00:22:15.799 --> 00:22:21.240 into our algorithm as positive sentiment because people are excited 388 00:22:21.279 --> 00:22:24.519 about that event or updates. So maybe that's why we're 389 00:22:24.519 --> 00:22:27.400 seeing the anomaly that we're seeing today. 390 00:22:28.200 --> 00:22:29.039 Yeah, for sure. 391 00:22:30.119 --> 00:22:33.240 Can we take a look at XRP ANDBRV curiously. 392 00:22:33.359 --> 00:22:36.559 Yeah, yeah, I think that's going to look really negative 393 00:22:36.640 --> 00:22:40.000 based on how much XRP has declined in the last 394 00:22:40.039 --> 00:22:44.640 couple of months. Yeah, so as expected, it's definitely lower 395 00:22:44.680 --> 00:22:48.839 than bitcoin and ethereum. It's about negative four point three 396 00:22:48.920 --> 00:22:52.119 percent on the thirty day. You can see just how 397 00:22:52.200 --> 00:22:56.559 low it really got here on that big crash. It 398 00:22:56.599 --> 00:22:58.720 got all the way down to native thirty two percent 399 00:22:59.519 --> 00:23:02.799 in early February, and the long term was below negative 400 00:23:02.839 --> 00:23:07.119 fifty percent, which is pretty historically low, but it's getting 401 00:23:07.160 --> 00:23:10.240