WEBVTT 1 00:00:10.800 --> 00:00:14.119 Hey, everybody, Welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics. 2 00:00:14.160 --> 00:00:17.000 We got a special guest today, Mark Polly Moropolis, former 3 00:00:17.039 --> 00:00:21.719 CIA officer. He's got a new podcast called The Crisis Room. 4 00:00:22.079 --> 00:00:24.640 He's hosting it with Amber Rudd, former Home Secretary in 5 00:00:24.640 --> 00:00:29.920 the UK and Mark Urban, investigative journalists and author. Check 6 00:00:29.960 --> 00:00:31.640 it out. The links will be in the descriptions called 7 00:00:31.640 --> 00:00:34.320 the Crisis Room. Uh Mark, what's going on? 8 00:00:34.399 --> 00:00:34.560 Bro? 9 00:00:35.399 --> 00:00:37.759 Well? Crazy times. Glad to be with you guys. I 10 00:00:37.759 --> 00:00:40.880 see Mick is joining us from an undisclosed location as 11 00:00:40.920 --> 00:00:45.520 he's running around the golf. Very brave of him, probably 12 00:00:45.560 --> 00:00:49.159 the Four Seasons or or or Ritz somewhere, but I 13 00:00:49.240 --> 00:00:52.520 admire bravery and his dedication to the podcast. 14 00:00:54.000 --> 00:00:56.560 It's undisclosed, man, I can't tell you what one. 15 00:00:56.479 --> 00:01:02.439 Of so obviously what's happened last night? Crazy? The US 16 00:01:02.479 --> 00:01:06.439 got into the fray bombed Iranian nuclear sites, Ford Au, 17 00:01:07.159 --> 00:01:10.760 Natons and isafon used any people are talking anywhere from 18 00:01:10.760 --> 00:01:13.439 twelve to fifteen b two bombers. Half of them were 19 00:01:13.439 --> 00:01:16.200 like a diversionary tactic. The other half went into he 20 00:01:16.280 --> 00:01:21.719 ran with I believe I saw a fighter escort. They 21 00:01:21.799 --> 00:01:25.680 dropped upwards of fourteen GBU fifty sevens, the mops the 22 00:01:26.319 --> 00:01:30.719 thirty thousand pound bombs on the sites, specifically at ford Aw. 23 00:01:30.799 --> 00:01:34.920 The rest of the sites got about thirty Tamahak cruise 24 00:01:34.920 --> 00:01:40.200 missiles from submarines in the Gulf. Pretty wild. I mean, 25 00:01:40.239 --> 00:01:42.760 it's been we've been gearing up for this. I mean, 26 00:01:42.840 --> 00:01:44.920 obviously in the news we've seen like the movement of 27 00:01:45.000 --> 00:01:47.719 like our carrier groups and stuff like that, more and 28 00:01:47.799 --> 00:01:49.760 more tankers heading that way. So it was like the 29 00:01:49.840 --> 00:01:52.400 riding was kind of on the wall. President Trump said 30 00:01:52.400 --> 00:01:55.000 the other day yesterday or two days ago, that he 31 00:01:55.079 --> 00:01:56.840 was gonna give it two weeks and then make a decision. 32 00:01:56.879 --> 00:02:01.079 And the twenty four hours it happened later a lot 33 00:02:01.079 --> 00:02:03.439 to cover. Obviously, I just gave you the like bullet 34 00:02:03.439 --> 00:02:06.719 point stuff, like Pete hack Set, Secretary of Defense, just 35 00:02:06.719 --> 00:02:11.280 had a presser saying that they obliterated the obliterated the 36 00:02:11.280 --> 00:02:13.479 facilities and stuff like that, and that was the most 37 00:02:13.479 --> 00:02:17.159 magical attack in the history of attacks. And then right 38 00:02:17.199 --> 00:02:21.520 away General Kane, joint Chairman of the Joint Chief says, 39 00:02:21.520 --> 00:02:23.400 we don't really have a b DA yet. It's still 40 00:02:23.400 --> 00:02:26.759 being assessed and it's going to take time. So thankfully, 41 00:02:26.800 --> 00:02:29.680 there was somebody who was sober. I'm not a presser. 42 00:02:30.000 --> 00:02:36.719 I not literally sober, but figuratively I mean or both. Anyway, guys, 43 00:02:36.759 --> 00:02:38.520 what are your what are your thoughts? Mark you you 44 00:02:38.560 --> 00:02:42.159 go first. You are a guest of honor, so kind of. 45 00:02:42.159 --> 00:02:44.439 Well, I think you mentioned some things that are important, 46 00:02:44.520 --> 00:02:48.879 so like anything, and you know, Jason and Mick will 47 00:02:48.879 --> 00:02:51.879 certainly understand this. You know, BDA takes time. Bomb damage 48 00:02:51.879 --> 00:02:54.360 assessment takes time. You know, if using words like obliterate 49 00:02:54.439 --> 00:02:57.759 really not that smart. I think General Kine, who incidentally 50 00:02:57.840 --> 00:02:59.639 his last job was as the kind of the lead 51 00:02:59.680 --> 00:03:02.800 military advisor at CIA to the director, but I think 52 00:03:02.800 --> 00:03:04.759 he was much more sober and said that, you know, 53 00:03:04.919 --> 00:03:06.599 we think we had good effects, but we just got 54 00:03:06.599 --> 00:03:08.000 to see and that's going to take kind of all 55 00:03:08.039 --> 00:03:12.479 sources of intelligence collection, human intelligence, signals, intelligence imagery might 56 00:03:12.520 --> 00:03:15.680 take days, even weeks to figure it out. Looks like 57 00:03:15.800 --> 00:03:18.719 a very successful strike, you know, thank God for the 58 00:03:18.759 --> 00:03:21.680 incredible you know, planning and bravery of the of of 59 00:03:21.759 --> 00:03:24.199 kind of the entire package, but we just don't know. 60 00:03:24.240 --> 00:03:26.840 And I think that ultimately this gets judged at the 61 00:03:26.919 --> 00:03:30.240 end of the day by the effects one quick thing 62 00:03:30.319 --> 00:03:32.439 just to throw in there, and Dean, you know, we 63 00:03:32.479 --> 00:03:35.719 can argue about this if you want, no, no, but 64 00:03:36.039 --> 00:03:39.159 in some ways, you know this argument of whether we 65 00:03:39.199 --> 00:03:42.000 should do it or not as a legitimate one. But 66 00:03:42.080 --> 00:03:44.319 you know what, I have no tears shed for the Iranians. 67 00:03:44.879 --> 00:03:48.159 The rent was long overdue. Whether it's you know, the 68 00:03:48.159 --> 00:03:51.879 Iranians supplying e fps, the explosively formed projectiles killed a 69 00:03:51.960 --> 00:03:55.199 lot of US forces in Iraq, or there of course 70 00:03:55.400 --> 00:03:58.039 plots to kill President Trump and his members of his 71 00:03:58.240 --> 00:04:01.080 former members of his national security team. I could go 72 00:04:01.120 --> 00:04:04.560 on and on US embassy bombings in Beirut and marine barracks. 73 00:04:06.039 --> 00:04:08.159 So you know what, if the Iranians got a little 74 00:04:08.159 --> 00:04:11.080 taste finally, because frankly, US policy has been a business 75 00:04:11.159 --> 00:04:14.199 across multiple administrations and we've never done anything to Iran. 76 00:04:14.759 --> 00:04:16.399 The fact that this president, who I think a lot 77 00:04:16.399 --> 00:04:18.680 of us have some questions about in terms of competence 78 00:04:18.720 --> 00:04:20.360 in his national security time, the fact that he's in 79 00:04:20.439 --> 00:04:24.000 charge now, you know not probably not ideal, but you 80 00:04:24.040 --> 00:04:28.120 know what, you know again, the rent was was long overdue, 81 00:04:28.120 --> 00:04:29.959 and so I'm not shedding any tears. 82 00:04:30.920 --> 00:04:33.800 Make thoughts. We got too many people here. If it 83 00:04:33.839 --> 00:04:35.319 was just me and you I would toldally fight you 84 00:04:35.319 --> 00:04:36.279 on this, but go ahead. 85 00:04:36.759 --> 00:04:39.480 Yeah, yeah, well I'm certainly not gonna argue with Mark 86 00:04:39.519 --> 00:04:42.800 on that because I agree. I mean, ultimately, Iran has 87 00:04:43.199 --> 00:04:46.240 has has himself to blame for this. They've been the 88 00:04:46.279 --> 00:04:52.680 biggest destabilizing force in the Middle East, whether it's Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, 89 00:04:54.279 --> 00:04:59.240 keep going. Yeahmen, they have paused this. They are they 90 00:04:59.279 --> 00:05:03.920 are a force for evil. To be frank they up 91 00:05:04.000 --> 00:05:07.040 until the time of nine to eleven, Hezbola, a group 92 00:05:07.079 --> 00:05:11.800 they formed and totally supported, killed more Americans than al Qaeda. 93 00:05:12.079 --> 00:05:16.439 And they had the opportunity President Trump and you know, 94 00:05:16.600 --> 00:05:19.879 certainly President Biden as well, gave them all the opportunity 95 00:05:20.040 --> 00:05:22.160 to come to the table to come up with an 96 00:05:22.199 --> 00:05:26.560 agreement that would have not only you know, started palming 97 00:05:26.600 --> 00:05:29.040 down the Middle East, but it would have given sanctions 98 00:05:29.079 --> 00:05:32.240 reliefs or would it would have taken that off the 99 00:05:32.279 --> 00:05:35.199 burden of their own people, which are very confident, capable, 100 00:05:35.639 --> 00:05:40.279 modern and would do quite well in the global economy. 101 00:05:40.600 --> 00:05:44.120 That's all on them. And then the continuous rhetoric, you know, 102 00:05:44.240 --> 00:05:49.360 death to Israel, destiny United States. I think this was 103 00:05:49.959 --> 00:05:54.000 this needed to happen, and because of the IDF eliminating 104 00:05:55.279 --> 00:05:58.079 the air missile defense systems of Iran within the first 105 00:05:58.079 --> 00:06:03.040 forty eight hours of their pain. It really took the 106 00:06:03.120 --> 00:06:06.160 complexity of our operation, which I'm familiar with them at 107 00:06:06.199 --> 00:06:11.439 time I'm depending on, down several notches. But with that said, 108 00:06:11.800 --> 00:06:17.439 hopefully executed planned deception operations. That really shows you why 109 00:06:17.480 --> 00:06:22.480 the US is the most capable, competent, and effective military 110 00:06:22.519 --> 00:06:24.720 in the world, probably in the world's history, because of 111 00:06:25.040 --> 00:06:28.160 technology and how we have learned to use it. So 112 00:06:28.920 --> 00:06:32.439 I know it sounds like I'm cheerleader here, but I 113 00:06:32.480 --> 00:06:37.920 think it was the right decision. You drop twelve GBU 114 00:06:38.079 --> 00:06:43.000 fifty sevens thirty thousand pound munitions on Ford out, I 115 00:06:43.000 --> 00:06:45.839 would be surprised if there's much left. And even if 116 00:06:46.279 --> 00:06:48.560 there is something left down there around three hundred feet, 117 00:06:48.720 --> 00:06:50.519 I don't know how you get to it. And to 118 00:06:50.560 --> 00:06:53.240 be frank, I think we should tell them if you 119 00:06:53.279 --> 00:06:55.439 start rebuilding, we're going to do it all again. So 120 00:06:55.639 --> 00:06:59.319 just take off the nuclear and think how much Iran 121 00:06:59.399 --> 00:07:01.639 has spent on a nuclear program when they could have 122 00:07:01.680 --> 00:07:03.680 spent it on their own. People think how much they 123 00:07:03.680 --> 00:07:08.360 have spent a hezbolah, a moss, the hoofies all the 124 00:07:08.399 --> 00:07:14.000 militias in Iraka in Syria instead of turning it into 125 00:07:14.040 --> 00:07:16.079 something that would have been beneficial to their people. So 126 00:07:16.399 --> 00:07:18.639 that's up to the Iranian people to decide. But I 127 00:07:18.680 --> 00:07:21.519 think we did make the right decision here, and the 128 00:07:21.519 --> 00:07:24.879 military performed extraordinarily. 129 00:07:26.759 --> 00:07:27.560 Jay, what do you got? 130 00:07:28.639 --> 00:07:32.839 Yeah, I mean they both said it quite well. But 131 00:07:33.240 --> 00:07:35.839 taking how I feel about the administration off the board, 132 00:07:36.079 --> 00:07:40.639 I have to agree that it was long overdue, and 133 00:07:41.000 --> 00:07:44.399 I don't know, given our forty year history, who else 134 00:07:44.519 --> 00:07:49.160 would have done it. I don't necessarily agree with how 135 00:07:49.199 --> 00:07:52.680 the aftermath is handled, the press conferences, the you know, 136 00:07:52.759 --> 00:07:56.040 the misspeaking and all that other stuff, but I believe 137 00:07:56.079 --> 00:07:59.560 that it was it was necessary, and I think now though, 138 00:07:59.680 --> 00:08:02.160 we need to focus on what comes next. Like you know, 139 00:08:02.720 --> 00:08:05.480 Mike alluded to, if they start building again, well then 140 00:08:05.519 --> 00:08:08.759 they get it again. But I also think that we, 141 00:08:09.360 --> 00:08:13.399 meaning us, the Israelis and anyone else getting involved allies 142 00:08:13.480 --> 00:08:16.439 need to think about the Iranian people and what comes next, 143 00:08:16.639 --> 00:08:19.680 you know, because they're paying the price for this just 144 00:08:19.720 --> 00:08:23.360 as much as the Iranian government. And I just got 145 00:08:23.360 --> 00:08:26.560 a message from someone. I don't know how true it is, 146 00:08:26.600 --> 00:08:30.800 but apparently the Iranian Parliament voted in favor of closing 147 00:08:30.839 --> 00:08:34.039 the Strait of Hormoz. I know that's not the beat 148 00:08:34.080 --> 00:08:37.840 all end all. It still has to get approved by 149 00:08:37.840 --> 00:08:40.200 the Supreme Council. But you know that's a big deal. 150 00:08:40.519 --> 00:08:44.360 You know, that's that is the ripple effect starting, the 151 00:08:44.440 --> 00:08:45.679 butterfly effects starting. 152 00:08:45.759 --> 00:08:47.679 So we'll see, Yeah, that's that's what I want. 153 00:08:47.759 --> 00:08:50.720 That's our biggest concern too. Actually, that was when I 154 00:08:50.799 --> 00:08:57.039 came to their retaliatory options. Closing austraighta hermos is probably 155 00:08:57.200 --> 00:09:00.840 not something we can stop from happening. Our navy is, 156 00:09:01.159 --> 00:09:03.879 as you might guess, the only navy capable of clearing it. 157 00:09:04.279 --> 00:09:06.720 And it's going to take months, and then you're gonna 158 00:09:06.759 --> 00:09:10.639 have to convince commercial shipping that it's actually fully cleared, 159 00:09:10.960 --> 00:09:13.320 and then they're going to have to convince their insurance 160 00:09:13.360 --> 00:09:18.039 company that it's this could that would majorly disrupt the 161 00:09:18.039 --> 00:09:20.440 flow of commerce, especially energy. 162 00:09:21.200 --> 00:09:23.840 Yeah, region iron gas will jump up to over one 163 00:09:23.879 --> 00:09:26.240 hundred bucks a barrow or oil. 164 00:09:26.840 --> 00:09:29.559 Just I'll throw out the running running parliament doesn't mean anything. 165 00:09:29.600 --> 00:09:32.240 So it really is going to be their Security Council 166 00:09:32.320 --> 00:09:34.360 is going to make that final decision. And so we'll see, 167 00:09:34.440 --> 00:09:37.240 I mean you know, I think that's that's clearly that's 168 00:09:37.279 --> 00:09:40.720 one of the retaliatory options that might hurt them just 169 00:09:40.759 --> 00:09:44.440 as much in terms of the Iranian economy. But but 170 00:09:44.600 --> 00:09:46.279 you know, there are lots of things on the in 171 00:09:46.320 --> 00:09:48.679 their toolkit that they can do, whether it's you know, 172 00:09:49.799 --> 00:09:53.120 ballistic missile strikes against US forces that you know, kind 173 00:09:53.120 --> 00:09:58.320 of uh, using their their very capable global terrorist apparatus 174 00:09:58.840 --> 00:10:01.600 to go after US interest anywhere, whether it's embassies, whether 175 00:10:01.639 --> 00:10:05.360 it's US military facilities where it's just American tourists. There's 176 00:10:05.360 --> 00:10:07.080 a lot of things that the Iranians can do. The 177 00:10:07.159 --> 00:10:09.559 question is, you know, will they do that? Because the 178 00:10:09.639 --> 00:10:12.399 US clearly back channeled Iran saying if you do this, 179 00:10:13.039 --> 00:10:15.240 much more is coming, and of course we've also overtly 180 00:10:15.279 --> 00:10:17.240 said that as well. So I think it's a question 181 00:10:17.279 --> 00:10:19.360 of the Iranians having to save face with their own 182 00:10:19.399 --> 00:10:25.200 people with the regime, versus really risking much more severe 183 00:10:25.399 --> 00:10:28.440 US firepower coming at them. And if anyone tells you 184 00:10:28.480 --> 00:10:30.919 what they're going to do, they're lying. We just we 185 00:10:31.000 --> 00:10:33.200 just don't know. But one key point on this, what 186 00:10:33.320 --> 00:10:34.679 kind of a whole bunch of US have done in 187 00:10:34.720 --> 00:10:36.360 the past. This is why the intelligence community is so 188 00:10:36.360 --> 00:10:39.279 important because they're going to be laser focused right now 189 00:10:39.360 --> 00:10:43.639 on trying to figure out not only assess analytically, but 190 00:10:43.679 --> 00:10:45.960 actually for collection on what Iran is going to do. 191 00:10:46.879 --> 00:10:49.279 So really interesting times ahead, and I just throw out 192 00:10:49.279 --> 00:10:51.480 there for discussion, kind of a weird time for the 193 00:10:51.480 --> 00:10:53.919 Director of National Intelligence to be on the outs with 194 00:10:54.360 --> 00:10:55.480 the President of the United States. 195 00:10:55.879 --> 00:10:59.360 Yeah, so she took the party line again. She was 196 00:10:59.399 --> 00:11:01.320 in the situation shroom yesterday because she said, oh, they 197 00:11:01.320 --> 00:11:03.879 can have them within weeks now. Two months ago it 198 00:11:04.120 --> 00:11:06.440 was they're not even doing anything and it will be 199 00:11:06.519 --> 00:11:09.240 years now. It's all of a sudden, it feels like 200 00:11:09.279 --> 00:11:12.759 we're taking Israel's in tel assessments over our own. To 201 00:11:12.840 --> 00:11:16.039 be frank and to just spice up this conversation a 202 00:11:16.080 --> 00:11:17.360 little bit, Uh, well. 203 00:11:17.240 --> 00:11:18.879 One thing, one thing on that d I think one 204 00:11:18.879 --> 00:11:22.159 thing to Israel has a different calculus. So there's a 205 00:11:22.240 --> 00:11:25.759 legitimate debate clearly, what is the new intelligence from this 206 00:11:25.960 --> 00:11:29.440 Israeli dossier. But talking to the Israelis after October seventh, 207 00:11:29.559 --> 00:11:31.279 you know they're not gonna they don't give a shit 208 00:11:31.320 --> 00:11:35.720 about weeks months even clearly arguing over that because there 209 00:11:35.759 --> 00:11:38.639 there are talents for risk as much as much lower. 210 00:11:38.639 --> 00:11:41.559 And so you know Iran was in the Ironnian nuclear programs, 211 00:11:41.559 --> 00:11:46.240 is an existential threat. The Iranians defenses are so degraded. 212 00:11:46.279 --> 00:11:48.720 Now this was a chance to take a shot. And 213 00:11:48.759 --> 00:11:52.000 whether their analysts differ with our analysts in terms of 214 00:11:52.200 --> 00:11:54.440 you know, John Ratclife, to see how director said, this 215 00:11:54.480 --> 00:11:56.039 is like you know, sprinting down the field on a 216 00:11:56.080 --> 00:11:59.480 football field, yet you don't go across the goal line. 217 00:12:00.159 --> 00:12:01.799 So at the end of the day, I understand the 218 00:12:01.840 --> 00:12:03.720 Israeli thinking on that, but I do think there's a 219 00:12:03.799 --> 00:12:07.039 legitimate question on from the US side in terms of 220 00:12:07.039 --> 00:12:09.519 analytic assessments. And that's where you know, Congress has to 221 00:12:09.519 --> 00:12:12.360 get in and try to figure out exactly what did 222 00:12:12.399 --> 00:12:15.159 the Israelis provide? What was the US analytic line? 223 00:12:15.559 --> 00:12:16.039 You know, is. 224 00:12:16.039 --> 00:12:18.200 Ratcliffe, the CI director in Tulsa gabber the D and 225 00:12:18.240 --> 00:12:21.320 I chief at odds over this. But looking at it 226 00:12:21.360 --> 00:12:23.720 from the Israeli perspective, I get it. There they said, 227 00:12:23.720 --> 00:12:25.279 you know, we're not we don't really care if we're 228 00:12:25.279 --> 00:12:27.559 gonna have an argument in terms of weeks, months, or 229 00:12:27.559 --> 00:12:30.600 even a year. It's an ex essential threat, is Iran 230 00:12:30.679 --> 00:12:32.080 is vulnerable now and we got to do this. 231 00:12:32.279 --> 00:12:32.399 Well. 232 00:12:32.480 --> 00:12:34.879 Yeah, you even heard from Nan Yahoo's speech after they 233 00:12:34.919 --> 00:12:38.360 started bombing the Iranian facilities last week that they're a 234 00:12:38.440 --> 00:12:40.399 year away, or it could be even a couple of months. 235 00:12:40.440 --> 00:12:43.039 So like their assessment to weaponize it, right, because they 236 00:12:43.039 --> 00:12:45.679 have reached the area where it's relatively easy to get 237 00:12:45.679 --> 00:12:48.320 the enriched enricheradium to the point where it's weapons grade. 238 00:12:49.720 --> 00:12:51.879 I'm going to bring this up. Go ahead and mix. 239 00:12:51.919 --> 00:12:53.840 Sorry at one point on that there was no reason 240 00:12:53.840 --> 00:12:56.240 to do that. They're well past what they would need 241 00:12:56.279 --> 00:12:59.759 for all civilian energy or medical right, So they're doing 242 00:12:59.759 --> 00:13:02.440 it for a reason. They're at sixty percent. We think 243 00:13:02.519 --> 00:13:05.000 it's very it kind of it speeds up as you 244 00:13:05.000 --> 00:13:07.360 get higher to the top. Ninety is what it needed. 245 00:13:07.799 --> 00:13:09.759 They didn't have to do that. They chose to do that. 246 00:13:09.840 --> 00:13:12.080 They did it for a reason. Yeah, and I think 247 00:13:12.399 --> 00:13:13.039 I think we all. 248 00:13:12.960 --> 00:13:13.399 Know the reason. 249 00:13:13.440 --> 00:13:14.799 Either they were going to do it, or they were 250 00:13:14.840 --> 00:13:20.200 trying to put pressure on the US or for to 251 00:13:20.320 --> 00:13:23.279 better their negotiation stance, and it was it was It 252 00:13:23.360 --> 00:13:26.159 was really dumb either way. They didn't have to do that, 253 00:13:26.519 --> 00:13:30.320 and the US has given them options to take enriched 254 00:13:30.399 --> 00:13:34.320 uranium up to the needs of a civilian energy program 255 00:13:34.840 --> 00:13:37.720 from out of the country like other countries in this 256 00:13:37.879 --> 00:13:39.879 region have agreed to. And they could have done it too. 257 00:13:41.919 --> 00:13:44.600 Yeah uh yeah, talking about the enrichera too. I saw 258 00:13:44.639 --> 00:13:48.120 a graft from the Financial Times and it's very interesting 259 00:13:48.200 --> 00:13:51.600 in terms of, you know, the times when the uranium 260 00:13:51.639 --> 00:13:54.919 wasn't your rich almost at all was during the JCPOA 261 00:13:55.080 --> 00:13:57.759 years and in the last couple of years it's gone 262 00:13:57.840 --> 00:14:01.360 up pretty dramatically. The same president got us out of 263 00:14:01.360 --> 00:14:04.120 the j CPOA and as many beefs as you have 264 00:14:04.240 --> 00:14:06.600 for with the j CPO it was an actual diplomatic 265 00:14:06.639 --> 00:14:10.759 resolution that that stopped what the Israelis are you know, 266 00:14:11.519 --> 00:14:16.039 you know, screaming from the rooftops about and that's enriched uranium. Frankly, 267 00:14:16.120 --> 00:14:20.159 also like also like the chat about you know, we 268 00:14:20.200 --> 00:14:24.120 still want a diplomatic diplomatic resolution to this blah blah blah. 269 00:14:24.399 --> 00:14:27.279 Is interesting when you know, in one of the initial strikes, 270 00:14:27.279 --> 00:14:30.120 the head of the head negotiator gets swacked along with 271 00:14:30.200 --> 00:14:34.879 IRGC guys who you know have fun meeting a lah 272 00:14:35.039 --> 00:14:37.679 and like you know, other nuclear scientists, is the chief 273 00:14:37.720 --> 00:14:42.200 negotiator of the diplomatic talks kind of sends a bad sign. 274 00:14:42.279 --> 00:14:44.840 I would assume, like if you're trying to negotiate a 275 00:14:44.919 --> 00:14:47.960 highly complicated nuclear deal. 276 00:14:50.159 --> 00:14:53.759 The d O D just through the record. Not that 277 00:14:53.840 --> 00:14:56.120 matters now, but the d OD is against getting out 278 00:14:56.159 --> 00:14:59.399 of the uh. You know, I really withdrawing from the 279 00:14:59.440 --> 00:15:03.480 two thousand fifteen JCPOA. It wasn't a perfect agreement, but 280 00:15:03.639 --> 00:15:06.639 to your point, d it did keep them well under 281 00:15:06.679 --> 00:15:10.320 the limits we could have addressed you know, proxy force 282 00:15:10.360 --> 00:15:13.720 operations and other things, because it wasn't addressed in that 283 00:15:13.879 --> 00:15:18.159 and another and other sanctions. And there's there's also a 284 00:15:18.200 --> 00:15:22.080 problem with who's gonna enter agreement with us if we 285 00:15:22.080 --> 00:15:25.240 can just unilaterally withdraw every time we change, you know, 286 00:15:25.320 --> 00:15:29.240 political parties. If you can't honor agreement from a past 287 00:15:29.240 --> 00:15:31.879 political party, then you know, it makes a lot of 288 00:15:31.919 --> 00:15:35.519 these agreements, unless they're treaties, unless it's ratified, kind of 289 00:15:36.120 --> 00:15:37.159 kind of challenged. 290 00:15:37.919 --> 00:15:43.440 Sure, a little bit more on blowback, just to game 291 00:15:43.519 --> 00:15:45.480 it out a little, Like let's say they start shooting 292 00:15:45.519 --> 00:15:49.960 some ballistic missiles that you know, Bahrain our embassy in Iraq, 293 00:15:50.159 --> 00:15:52.759 or they have they spin up some malicious militias over 294 00:15:52.799 --> 00:15:56.440 there to like attack the embassy. Where do we go 295 00:15:56.559 --> 00:15:59.679 from there? If we start taking you know, casualties. 296 00:16:01.440 --> 00:16:03.759 Oh, I think it depends on the casualties. I mean, 297 00:16:03.840 --> 00:16:05.600 you know that's gonna that's gonna be you know, if 298 00:16:05.600 --> 00:16:08.759 it's a mass casualty event, a lot of Americans are killed, 299 00:16:08.919 --> 00:16:12.080 that's gonna engender very severe response. If it's and if 300 00:16:12.120 --> 00:16:14.360 and there's there's so many other there's so many nuances 301 00:16:14.360 --> 00:16:16.120 to this as well. If it's if it's the Iranian 302 00:16:16.120 --> 00:16:17.600 shooting off a couple, you know, a whole bunch of 303 00:16:17.639 --> 00:16:20.759 ballistic missiles to satisfy their own internal need to do so, 304 00:16:20.799 --> 00:16:22.759 and there's no US casualties, and you kind of see it. 305 00:16:22.879 --> 00:16:25.320 That's how they call today. I think the US probably 306 00:16:25.360 --> 00:16:28.679 will not respond and that. But but the problem with 307 00:16:28.759 --> 00:16:31.000 that is that there's a lot of unknowns there, you know, 308 00:16:31.080 --> 00:16:33.200 ballistic missile you know, so it's like what you see 309 00:16:33.200 --> 00:16:37.600 in Israel. Sometimes, uh, they can be effective and sometimes 310 00:16:37.600 --> 00:16:41.120 they can fall in an empty field. So that's that's 311 00:16:41.120 --> 00:16:43.919 why the situation I think is is is so dangerous 312 00:16:43.960 --> 00:16:48.399 now and why I'm sure there's there's you know, not 313 00:16:48.480 --> 00:16:51.240 just over but certainly messaging that's going on behind the scenes. 314 00:16:51.279 --> 00:16:55.000 And probably probably along with you know, using the offices 315 00:16:55.039 --> 00:16:57.120 of our some of our golf allies as well, to 316 00:16:57.200 --> 00:17:01.279 try to de escalate this as much as possible, because again, 317 00:17:01.440 --> 00:17:03.960 the the you know, President Trump, I don't think he 318 00:17:04.039 --> 00:17:07.200 wanted to do this, and of course the maga world 319 00:17:07.240 --> 00:17:09.559 is going bananas now because they think it's another kind 320 00:17:09.599 --> 00:17:12.519 of never ending war. If you can manage to kind 321 00:17:12.519 --> 00:17:15.920 of just have this be a one off, I think 322 00:17:16.240 --> 00:17:21.160 he certainly walks away, probably with his mega coalition still okay, 323 00:17:22.000 --> 00:17:24.640 But if we start getting getting at it with the Iranians, 324 00:17:25.880 --> 00:17:26.960 that's a whole different story. 325 00:17:27.240 --> 00:17:31.160 Uh So, anybody they think, they'll probably try to design 326 00:17:31.160 --> 00:17:35.319 it similar to their response to the assassination of cost 327 00:17:35.359 --> 00:17:36.839 him soul of money. Right, there was a lot of 328 00:17:37.160 --> 00:17:38.759 there's a lot of a lot of boom, but not 329 00:17:38.799 --> 00:17:41.839 a lot of impact. So they you know, they control 330 00:17:41.880 --> 00:17:44.440 the media, so they they say they did a lot 331 00:17:44.440 --> 00:17:47.119 more than they did. But to Mark's point, you know, 332 00:17:48.039 --> 00:17:51.240 that's a that's a difficult thing to calculate. You know, 333 00:17:51.640 --> 00:17:53.160 if you get through and you kill a bunch of 334 00:17:53.519 --> 00:17:57.200 Now that said, uh, sitcom did a lot of work 335 00:17:57.240 --> 00:17:59.599 to get people out of harm's way. They moved you know, 336 00:18:00.200 --> 00:18:02.519 naval vessels out of Bahrain and move aircraft at an 337 00:18:02.519 --> 00:18:06.680 Allied aid. They I wasn't joking when I was like 338 00:18:06.799 --> 00:18:09.000 my hotel I was just in was full of people 339 00:18:09.640 --> 00:18:12.319 who had been moved out to the point where they 340 00:18:12.319 --> 00:18:14.200 would have hit it. They will hit an empty base 341 00:18:14.720 --> 00:18:18.880 in a in a golf country. Uh And they or 342 00:18:19.039 --> 00:18:20.839 doesn't have a lot of friends, but they're they're gonna 343 00:18:20.880 --> 00:18:24.759 lose a lot if they start just watching ballistic missiles uh, 344 00:18:24.799 --> 00:18:29.640 into these neighboring golf countries. So it's it's a risk 345 00:18:30.240 --> 00:18:31.680 on many levels. 346 00:18:33.119 --> 00:18:36.559 Uh So, Prior prior to all the spin up to this, 347 00:18:36.759 --> 00:18:38.680 like there was always talk and we've talked about it 348 00:18:38.680 --> 00:18:42.319 many times on the show about how if we did 349 00:18:42.440 --> 00:18:47.359 hit the nuclear facilities, it would really only set it 350 00:18:47.400 --> 00:18:51.000 back six months to a year, right there a nuclear program, 351 00:18:52.400 --> 00:18:54.440 What if that's the case, even though we did drop 352 00:18:54.480 --> 00:18:57.000 twelve or fourteen gbus and like you would assume that's 353 00:18:57.079 --> 00:19:00.920 like fucking mush there. Now, you did see each other 354 00:19:01.160 --> 00:19:05.079 some satellite photos as well of trucks leaving the ford 355 00:19:05.119 --> 00:19:08.880 Ou facility like hours before the strike. So let's say 356 00:19:08.920 --> 00:19:11.640 they moved the enricheranium to another facility, they said, is 357 00:19:11.880 --> 00:19:16.599 Fahan is a lot more as a fortified or almost 358 00:19:16.599 --> 00:19:20.559 as fortified as Fordau was, or is what happens if 359 00:19:20.640 --> 00:19:23.240 you know, our BDA is done and then like Intel 360 00:19:23.359 --> 00:19:27.160 comes out that we really have it, like completely wiped 361 00:19:27.200 --> 00:19:30.640 it off the off the map and they can reconstitute 362 00:19:30.680 --> 00:19:32.920 it within a year or something like that. What's the 363 00:19:32.960 --> 00:19:34.559 move there? Just continue to. 364 00:19:34.319 --> 00:19:37.240 Hit them maybe, I mean so again, that's why the 365 00:19:37.759 --> 00:19:40.799 intelligence collection is so important and the BDA, you know, 366 00:19:41.400 --> 00:19:44.160 But ultimately I think this this should be seen kind 367 00:19:44.160 --> 00:19:46.200 of as part of a kind of longer term campaign 368 00:19:46.200 --> 00:19:49.400 and these Raelies will see that this for sure, and 369 00:19:49.440 --> 00:19:51.279 perhaps they're the ones who are going to do are 370 00:19:51.279 --> 00:19:53.880 going to hit it again. One of the things though, 371 00:19:53.960 --> 00:19:56.319 is that you know, so many people are making this comment. 372 00:19:56.359 --> 00:19:58.079 I mean, I'm guilty of this as well. So you know, 373 00:19:58.119 --> 00:19:59.359 the last thing I want to do is go on 374 00:20:00.039 --> 00:20:02.119 program like this or on TV talk about you know, 375 00:20:02.279 --> 00:20:04.720 the interest causes of enriched uranium. I don't know what 376 00:20:04.720 --> 00:20:07.160 the hell I'm talking about. It's in the same thing. 377 00:20:07.240 --> 00:20:10.240 So in terms of how much is the Iranian program degraded, well, 378 00:20:10.240 --> 00:20:13.400 there's a couple of things that we know, Uh, Israel 379 00:20:13.480 --> 00:20:16.119 killed you know nine of the leading nuclear scientists. They 380 00:20:16.160 --> 00:20:19.480 also destroyed the archive of the Iranian program, which was 381 00:20:19.519 --> 00:20:23.440 important because that's the kind of the historical knowledge of it. 382 00:20:23.839 --> 00:20:24.119 Uh. 383 00:20:24.160 --> 00:20:27.079 They're going there meticulously, going after five of these six sites. 384 00:20:27.119 --> 00:20:29.279 So you know, the idea that it's only been a 385 00:20:29.279 --> 00:20:31.599 bit degraded, I mean, I think when when people start 386 00:20:31.640 --> 00:20:33.640 saying that there's a there's a political bent to this, 387 00:20:34.000 --> 00:20:37.240 I think it's going to be pretty significant. But we 388 00:20:37.279 --> 00:20:39.440 also shouldn't say it's been obliterated, like I think the 389 00:20:39.480 --> 00:20:42.720 President and Pete Hexa said, because nobody says that, you know, 390 00:20:42.960 --> 00:20:45.160 kind of the sober people in the national security world 391 00:20:45.160 --> 00:20:47.400 will will say, you know it, uh, and there'll be 392 00:20:47.480 --> 00:20:49.440 some kind of assessment on it. But I think it's 393 00:20:49.440 --> 00:20:51.400 not going to be in the in the in the 394 00:20:51.440 --> 00:20:54.279 realm of months. Clearly, it will be in the realm 395 00:20:54.279 --> 00:20:56.279 of years. And and that's something that I think that 396 00:20:58.039 --> 00:21:02.000 Israeli an US national scurity planners probably thought was enough 397 00:21:02.640 --> 00:21:05.160 to take such type of action. But to say it's 398 00:21:05.200 --> 00:21:08.559 going to be obliterated gets a little silly. And of 399 00:21:08.599 --> 00:21:10.559 course to say that it's it's only been degraded a 400 00:21:10.559 --> 00:21:12.519 couple months, same thing. Come on, there's just too much 401 00:21:12.559 --> 00:21:13.119