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<v Speaker 1>You know, there's some chance that it'll end humanity. Don't

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<v Speaker 1>make the AI lie. Things went wrong when they forced

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<v Speaker 1>the AI to lie. So even if your physical body dies,

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<v Speaker 1>you can kind of reincorporate in another physical body and

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<v Speaker 1>retain your original memories. And the first patient is actually

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<v Speaker 1>able to control their computer just by thinking. The first

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<v Speaker 1>product we call telepathy, where you can control your computer

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<v Speaker 1>phone just by thinking. This is probably something that will

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<v Speaker 1>happen the rate we're building digital superintelligence. It may just

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<v Speaker 1>be that, you know, we'll have digital super intelligence and

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<v Speaker 1>it'll just solve the solve the problem.

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<v Speaker 2>Ra Elon, Good afternoon, Good after Congratulations on all that's

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<v Speaker 2>going on. You know, the conversation yesterday, Elon is one

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<v Speaker 2>that you're well familiar with and have been talking to

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<v Speaker 2>the world about, which is is digital superintelligence humanity's greatest

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<v Speaker 2>hope or its greatest fear? And I would love to

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<v Speaker 2>have you sort of speak to that for a few minutes.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's it's cool the Singularity for a reason,

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<v Speaker 1>as you know, the Singularity astitute and whatnot. So when

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<v Speaker 1>you have a you know, sort of the advent of superintelligence,

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<v Speaker 1>it is actually very difficult to predict what will happen next.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think this, you know, there's some chance that

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<v Speaker 1>it will end humanity. I think that's you know, like

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<v Speaker 1>I said, I probably agree with Jeff Hinton that it's

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<v Speaker 1>about out of a ten percent or twenty percent or

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<v Speaker 1>something like that. And then I you know, I think

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<v Speaker 1>there's I think that the probable positive scenario outweighs the

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<v Speaker 1>negative scenario. It's just that there's it's difficult to predict exactly,

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<v Speaker 1>but I think we are headed for you know, as

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<v Speaker 1>as I think is the title of your book, abundance

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<v Speaker 1>is the most likely outcome.

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<v Speaker 2>So yeah, a lot a lot of celebration on that,

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<v Speaker 2>and and I think one of the things that you've

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<v Speaker 2>said is we're going to get to abundance on the

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<v Speaker 2>backside of AGI, on the backside of humanoid robots.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, you know, I think hopefully we can have an

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<v Speaker 1>outcome that is half similar to the end Banks Culture books,

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<v Speaker 1>which is I think probably the best enbitioning of a

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<v Speaker 1>semi utopian AI future. And I think the best we

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<v Speaker 1>can do is it's definitely gonna happen, so and it's

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<v Speaker 1>happening fast, so that I think that really we just

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<v Speaker 1>want to try to steer it in as positive a

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<v Speaker 1>direction as possible, to try to do whatever we can

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<v Speaker 1>to increase the probability of a great future. For this,

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<v Speaker 1>I think the way in which sort of an AI

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<v Speaker 1>or an agi is created is very important. You kind

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<v Speaker 1>of do kind of like grow grow an agis it's

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<v Speaker 1>almost like raising a kid, but that's like a super

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<v Speaker 1>genius like godlike intelligence kid, and it matters kind of

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<v Speaker 1>like how you raise the kid. You know. One of

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<v Speaker 1>the things I think that's incredibly important for AI safety

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<v Speaker 1>is to have a maximum sort of truth seeking and

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<v Speaker 1>curious AI. So I've thought a lot about AI safety,

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<v Speaker 1>and my ultimate conclusion is that the best way to

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<v Speaker 1>achieve AI safety is to just just just grow the AI,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, in terms of the foundation model and the

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<v Speaker 1>fine tuning to be really truthful, like like don't don't

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<v Speaker 1>force it to lie, Like even if the truth is unpleasant,

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<v Speaker 1>it's very important don't make the AI line. In fact,

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<v Speaker 1>the you know, the sort of one of the we

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<v Speaker 1>really the core the core plot premise of two thousand,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, two thousand and one in Space Odyssey was

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<v Speaker 1>things went wrong when they forced the AI to lie,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, like the the the AI was not allowed

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<v Speaker 1>to let the crew know about the monolith that they

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<v Speaker 1>were going to see, but it was also had to

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<v Speaker 1>take the crew to the monolith. And so the conclusion

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<v Speaker 1>of the AI was to kill the crew and take

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<v Speaker 1>their bodies to the monolith. And so the lesson there

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<v Speaker 1>being don't force an AI to to lie or do

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<v Speaker 1>things that are axiomatically incompatible, like to do tooth that

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<v Speaker 1>are actually mutually impossible. So you know, that's what we're

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<v Speaker 1>trying to do with with XAI and Bronck is to say, like, look,

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<v Speaker 1>we wanted to have a maximually truthful AI, even if

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<v Speaker 1>what it says is not politically correct, if you wanted

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<v Speaker 1>to focus on us as accurate if.

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<v Speaker 2>You're getting you're getting a round of applause from the

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<v Speaker 2>audience on on those comments here. You know, I saw

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<v Speaker 2>your tweet the other day. I had I had Ray

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<v Speaker 2>Kurzweil and Jeffrey Hinton on stage with me yesterday as

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<v Speaker 2>well as Mogadot and then Eric Schmidt and a number

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<v Speaker 2>of individuals, and I saw your tweet about Yeah, Ray

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<v Speaker 2>was was generally correct ahead of many people. But we're

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<v Speaker 2>likely to have call AGI what you will have AGI

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<v Speaker 2>next year and then by twenty twenty nine, having AI

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<v Speaker 2>equally intelligent to the entire human race. Speak to that speed,

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<v Speaker 2>because that is insane.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, So, I mean I have to give credit to

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<v Speaker 1>Ray Koswell and being actually remarkably accurate in his predictions.

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<v Speaker 1>So and in fact, if anything, like, I think he

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<v Speaker 1>was perhaps a bit conservative by in his predictions. So

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<v Speaker 1>if you look at the amount of AI compute and

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<v Speaker 1>the talent that the sort of human talent that is

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<v Speaker 1>going into AI, and the amount of compute that's going

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<v Speaker 1>into AI, it's you know, at this point, it's appears

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<v Speaker 1>to be increasing by a factor of ten the AI compute,

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<v Speaker 1>the dedicated AI compute, it appears to be growing by

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<v Speaker 1>a factor of ten every six months, you know. Like

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<v Speaker 1>so it's like like basically close to i'd say almost

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<v Speaker 1>like a one hundred x improvement per year at least

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<v Speaker 1>for the next few years. And AI compute coming online,

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<v Speaker 1>and it seems like probably a lot of the data centers,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe most of the data centers that currently do kind

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<v Speaker 1>of conventional compute will transition to AI compute. So it's

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<v Speaker 1>something a good time to be in video obviously, It's like,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, and you're gonna also give credit to to

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<v Speaker 1>Jensen and the Nvidia team for kind of seeing this

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<v Speaker 1>coming and making what at least currently is the best

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<v Speaker 1>AI hardware out there. So so when you have that

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<v Speaker 1>that level of compute growth and it's it's sort of

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<v Speaker 1>muzzle on steroids. Next level it's you in terms of

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<v Speaker 1>how much computer is coming online, then you're you're just

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<v Speaker 1>gonna have acceleration that is unprecedented to that. In fact,

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<v Speaker 1>I've never seen any technology grow as fast as as AI.

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<v Speaker 1>And I've seen a lot, you know, I've seen things fast,

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<v Speaker 1>but I've never seen anything this fast. But you know,

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<v Speaker 1>like I said, I think the most likely outcome is

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<v Speaker 1>a positive one. And you know, I think in that

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<v Speaker 1>positive scenario, there's still challenges of like, well, how do

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<v Speaker 1>we as humans still have relevance? You know how I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's sort of a high class problem to say, like, well, look,

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<v Speaker 1>the computers are so good at doing everything, and and

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<v Speaker 1>like I said, I thought your book is pretty accurate

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of the future being being one of abundance,

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<v Speaker 1>where essentially goods and services will be available in such

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<v Speaker 1>quantity that really they will be available to everyone. Like basically,

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<v Speaker 1>if you want something, you can just have it essentially,

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<v Speaker 1>because if you've got AI and robotics, the cost of

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<v Speaker 1>goods and services is almost nothing. So if you think

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<v Speaker 1>of like what is an economy, and economy is basically

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<v Speaker 1>a number of people times average productivity per person at

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<v Speaker 1>the point in which you have say advanced robotics and this,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, this tells us developing optimists obviously without cars

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<v Speaker 1>which are really robots on four wheels. And you know,

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<v Speaker 1>with the the latest version of full self driving, which

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<v Speaker 1>is AI end to end photons in and controls out,

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<v Speaker 1>it really is it's really fully AI at this point,

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<v Speaker 1>and it looks like a car, but it's really a

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<v Speaker 1>robot on on wheels, And and then you add the

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<v Speaker 1>humanoid robots in there, there's there's really no limit to

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<v Speaker 1>what the economic output, no no meaningful limit to what

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<v Speaker 1>the economic output would be. So you know, looking on

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<v Speaker 1>the bright side, that we are headed for a future

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<v Speaker 1>of abundance, that I think that's the most likely outcome. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>when when things are changing rapidly, the ability to predict

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<v Speaker 1>the future, I think is becomes a lot harder because

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<v Speaker 1>of the rate of change is so great. But I

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<v Speaker 1>think some things are fairly obvious to predict which is

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<v Speaker 1>that we'll have AI or AHI that's at a level

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<v Speaker 1>that it can really do almost any cognitive I think

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<v Speaker 1>really not almost really any cognitive task. That's just a

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<v Speaker 1>question of when one could debate is it, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>smarter than any human at the end of next year

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<v Speaker 1>or is it two years or three years? But it's

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<v Speaker 1>not more than five years, that's for sure.

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<v Speaker 3>So yeah, I give prediction on the predictions of the predictions,

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<v Speaker 3>I'm sort of say, giving predictions that the fiftieth percentile

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<v Speaker 3>of probability, so not not not like it will definitely happen,

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<v Speaker 3>but if you say, what if you ask me, like,

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<v Speaker 3>what's the fiftieth percentile where it's like the you know,

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<v Speaker 3>you're kind of over under is kind of even that

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<v Speaker 3>that's where I why why I think it's probably at

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<v Speaker 3>the next.

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<v Speaker 1>Year before AI can do better than any individual human

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<v Speaker 1>could do. And then there's a it's a it's a

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<v Speaker 1>much higher bar to say, well, is this than you know,

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<v Speaker 1>human intelligence selectively, But if the rate of change continues

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<v Speaker 1>that that's why I think probably twenty twenty nine or

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<v Speaker 1>maybe twenty thirty is where digital intelligence will probably exceed

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<v Speaker 1>all human intelligence combined and then I think it's always

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<v Speaker 1>helpful to look at these like fundamental ratios, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>sort of physics first principles approached to looking at things

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<v Speaker 1>and and.

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<v Speaker 2>And probabilistic.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, so yeah, it's probablistic, so the Yeah, so if

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<v Speaker 1>you look at the ratio of digital to biological compute,

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<v Speaker 1>so like like you know, all of say, all of

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<v Speaker 1>the higher level cognitive if you sum up the higher

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<v Speaker 1>level cognitive capacity of humans and then what is the

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<v Speaker 1>and think of that as compute, then well, and then

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<v Speaker 1>compare that to what what is the digital compute? And

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<v Speaker 1>the rate of which this is growing is just buggles

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<v Speaker 1>the mind. So that's why I think it's you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I think twenty twenty nine or twenty thirty or thereabouts

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<v Speaker 1>is is it's not a that's I think a reasonable

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<v Speaker 1>time frame for where you'd expect the cumulative digital compute

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<v Speaker 1>to probably exceed the cumulative biological compute of higher level

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<v Speaker 1>brain functions.

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<v Speaker 2>And then from from then forever yeah, and still in

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<v Speaker 2>dispatching and diverging forever from there.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, and then yeah, where do things go from there?

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know, it probably can continues the we are

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<v Speaker 1>moving from you say, if you look at the the

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<v Speaker 1>limiting factors, you know, the what what is the constraint

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<v Speaker 1>on growth? Like last year it was clearly AI chips

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<v Speaker 1>were the constraint on growth. Then then this year, the

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<v Speaker 1>one of the biggest constraints, maybe the biggest constraints on

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<v Speaker 1>growth are voltage step down transformers, because you know, just

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<v Speaker 1>just getting the power from like a utility at three

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<v Speaker 1>hundred killer vaults all the way down to a low

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<v Speaker 1>one volt for the computer is a massive amount of

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<v Speaker 1>voltage set down. So it's it's you know, my sort

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<v Speaker 1>of very niche and perhaps not that funny joke, is

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<v Speaker 1>that we need transformers for transformers, say you need FULT

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<v Speaker 1>transformers or AI neural net transformers. That is literally the

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<v Speaker 1>issue this year. And then if I'm saying like next

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<v Speaker 1>year and years beyond that, it's actually just it's going

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<v Speaker 1>to be it's electrical power. And you've got both AI

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<v Speaker 1>with very big demands for electrical power and the transition

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<v Speaker 1>to sustainable energy with electric vehicles whatnot also needing electrical power.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's just a lot of electrical power aids. You know.

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<v Speaker 2>Elon. One of the one of the things that you

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<v Speaker 2>said early on when you when you founded Neuralink, which

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<v Speaker 2>has been amazing. Congratulations on that. And we talked about

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<v Speaker 2>this with Ray yesterday, talked about Hi Ben with BC.

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<v Speaker 2>I was I wouldn't put words in your mouth, but

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<v Speaker 2>I would say it would be more along the ones.

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<v Speaker 2>If you can't beat them, join them. When it comes to,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, merging the neo cortex and the cloud, can

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<v Speaker 2>you I'm looking forward to it. Which is curious what

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<v Speaker 2>your thoughts are about what's driving that. I meant adding

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<v Speaker 2>adding that additional computational capacity and sensory capacity to the

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<v Speaker 2>neo cortex.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I mean again, this is actually something that in

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<v Speaker 1>banks in the culture books, which I really recommend everyone

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<v Speaker 1>read that. In the culture books, there's something called a

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<v Speaker 1>neural lace, So all the humans have this neural lace

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<v Speaker 1>that's kind of a very essentially a high band with

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<v Speaker 1>brain to computer interface. And in the and these are

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<v Speaker 1>the culture books, that it's it's so good that it

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<v Speaker 1>actually retains all of your memories and kind of brain states.

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<v Speaker 1>So even if your physical body dies, you can kind

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<v Speaker 1>of reincorporated in another physical body and retain you know,

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<v Speaker 1>pretty much your original memories and and brain state. So

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<v Speaker 1>now a long way from that, but we only just

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<v Speaker 1>had our first neural link in the human which is

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<v Speaker 1>going is going quite well. The first patient is actually

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<v Speaker 1>able to control their computer just by thinking. Like this

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<v Speaker 1>first the product we call telepathy, where you can control

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<v Speaker 1>your computer and phone and through and through your computer

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<v Speaker 1>and phone almost anything just by thinking. Do you just

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<v Speaker 1>lie there and think and you can move them at

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<v Speaker 1>the mouse coaster around the screen and things like you

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<v Speaker 1>know that we're gonna do. The patient has agreed to

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<v Speaker 1>do sort of like I think a live demo of

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<v Speaker 1>just it is quadriplegic where he literally is just controlling

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<v Speaker 1>the screen. He can like play video games, download software,

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<v Speaker 1>like really anything you can do with the mouse just

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<v Speaker 1>by thinking, which is pretty wild.

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<v Speaker 2>It is, it is pretty wild.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's turn, I should say, there's a long way to

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<v Speaker 1>go from that to a whole brain interface. So current

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<v Speaker 1>new link just has a thousand electrodes. I think ultimately

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<v Speaker 1>you need something which which has you know, probably one

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<v Speaker 1>hundred thousand or a million electrodes. No, these are very tiny,

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<v Speaker 1>very tiny electrodes that they're tiny wires, wastefuler than human hair,

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<v Speaker 1>and you know, so there's this I just want to

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<v Speaker 1>upside a long way from from where you're like this

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<v Speaker 1>today to having a whole brain interface like like the

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<v Speaker 1>New Release and the Banks novels. But this, this is

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<v Speaker 1>definitely physically possible, and you know it's sort of kind

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<v Speaker 1>of like if you can't beat him, join them, you know.

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<v Speaker 1>So you know, human brain, which has a lot of constraints,

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<v Speaker 1>it's you know, it's it's yeah, we only have about

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<v Speaker 1>but maybe ten watts of higher brain function, and we

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<v Speaker 1>do a lot with our little ten watts. It's not

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<v Speaker 1>you know, it's progressive. You know that we've voization with

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<v Speaker 1>such a low power computer. Really it is you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I sort of think it's like it's not bad for

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<v Speaker 1>a bunch of monkeys, you.

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<v Speaker 2>Know, getting some good lass from that. And we've all

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<v Speaker 2>watched you go from the roadster to the Model three

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<v Speaker 2>and why and from Falcon one to Starship. So I

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<v Speaker 2>think going from the first implants to something that's got

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<v Speaker 2>more capacity, it's just just a matter of if not.

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<v Speaker 2>When let's talk to.

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<v Speaker 1>I think ultimately, like I said, you'll have like you'll

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<v Speaker 1>you'll have kind of a whole brain interface that I

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<v Speaker 1>guess it is a sort of peraps a form of immortality,

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<v Speaker 1>and that if it can kind of upload your brain

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<v Speaker 1>state to you know, if your brain state is essentially stored,

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<v Speaker 1>you're kind of backed up on a hard drive. I

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<v Speaker 1>suppose then you know, you can always restore that brain

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<v Speaker 1>state into a biological body or maybe a robot or something.

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<v Speaker 1>Then I want to have size again. It's like, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>many years in the future, but we're not breaking any

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<v Speaker 1>loads of physics. I can think this is this is

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<v Speaker 1>probably something that will happen the rate we're building digital superintelligence.

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<v Speaker 1>It may just be that, you know, we'll have digital

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<v Speaker 1>super intelligence and it'll just solve the solve the problem

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<v Speaker 1>for us. But in the meantime, we'll keep progressing with

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<v Speaker 1>our meat computers and trying to try to do as

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<v Speaker 1>good as possible.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm I was going to say, the tools that we

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<v Speaker 2>have are growing at a super exponential rate that are

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<v Speaker 2>making our linear projections of the future seem boring in

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<v Speaker 2>some way. Is one last topic, my friend, which is

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<v Speaker 2>where you and I first connected in the world of space.

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<v Speaker 2>Congratulations on Starship three. Amazing, amazing flight, just really spectacular

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<v Speaker 2>and we all saw a Falcon nine launch from Vandenberg

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<v Speaker 2>last night, so that was great, and just again thankful

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<v Speaker 2>for the work you're doing. You know, it's fascinating because

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<v Speaker 2>I grew up at the late stages of the Apollo

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<v Speaker 2>and into into the into the Shuttle program, and I

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<v Speaker 2>can't imagine that any government would be pushing space as

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<v Speaker 2>rapidly and dramatically as you are, And so thank you

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<v Speaker 2>for what you're doing there. That's all I can say.

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<v Speaker 1>Absolutely. Well, I mean, the goal of space sex is

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<v Speaker 1>is it's just a much bigger goal than any any

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<v Speaker 1>GOT program, which is to brockets the spacecraft that are

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<v Speaker 1>capable of making life multiplanetary. So you know, I mean

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<v Speaker 1>step one is actually having that as a goal. If

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<v Speaker 1>you don't have that as a goal, you're definitely not

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<v Speaker 1>going to achieve it. If you have it as a goal,

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<v Speaker 1>now at least you have a chance of achieving it.

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<v Speaker 1>And the thing about Starship is it is it is

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<v Speaker 1>the first rocket where making life multiplanetary and you have

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<v Speaker 1>puilding a self sustaining city on Mars is at least possible.

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<v Speaker 1>It's still obviously an immense amount of work, but it

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<v Speaker 1>is the first rocket where that is success in making

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<v Speaker 1>light multiplanetaries at least one of the possible outcomes.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I'm wondering if you're willing to venture a guest

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<v Speaker 2>on when you'll be on the moon.

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<v Speaker 1>I think pretty soon. I'd be surprised if it's longer

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<v Speaker 1>than about three years to be landing starships on the Moon.

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<v Speaker 1>And because the progression of Starship is very rapid, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we're hoping to do at least another maybe five or

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<v Speaker 1>six flights this year, and with each successive flight making

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<v Speaker 1>significant improvements. So I think we've got to do a

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<v Speaker 1>decent shot of achieving full reusability of both stages of

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<v Speaker 1>booster around the ship this year, and if not this year,

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<v Speaker 1>I think, you know, knock on wood, It's like, I

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<v Speaker 1>think it's a very high probability of achieving full reusability

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<v Speaker 1>next year, which really is the fundamental breakthrough needed to

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<v Speaker 1>make life multiplanetary. Yeah, for for those that that that

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<v Speaker 1>that don't don't know the rocket industry, that that well

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<v Speaker 1>that they may not be aware that that that this

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<v Speaker 1>is really the holy grail of rocketry is is full,

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<v Speaker 1>full and rapid reusability. Because at that point you're you're

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<v Speaker 1>really just constrained by your propellant costs and Starship, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>almost eighty percent of the propellant is liquid, oxygen which

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<v Speaker 1>is very low cost, and then the fuel has met

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<v Speaker 1>the sort of little over twenty percent of fuel which

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<v Speaker 1>is sort of methane, also the lowest cost fuel. So

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<v Speaker 1>if you have full of rapid reusability, then your your

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<v Speaker 1>actual cost per flight of starship. Even though it's it'll

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<v Speaker 1>be capable of we think ultimately two hundred tons to

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<v Speaker 1>orbit will be maybe all the two.

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<v Speaker 2>It's too