Speaker 1: The twenty twenty five John Deer Classic is here. Welcome
everyone to tea time. I am your host, Andy Lang,
being joined as always by my fellow golf betting expert
Nick Borman. We're gonna break down TBC Deer run the course.
We're gonna go over some players that can trip you up,
some DraftKings, darlings. Nick is gonna break down the total
strokes gain in the top ten in this field. We're
also gonna talk about a favorite favorite and a long shot.
But as we always do, Nick, we do our one
and done to get the show started, and it is
neck and neck like we are like we've in like
like twenty thousand dollars of each other. So well, how
it works as we pick one and done, we can
only pick that person once a year until we get
to the playoffs and then we get their prize money
and literally like we are within just like a few
thousand of each other. So these are the weeks that
I feel like kind of make or break it because
you're gonna have to pick some guys that are a
little bit off the radar. I'll go first. I'll go
Michael thorpe Jornson. He's been really really good this entire season.
To be honest, he's coming up off he took a break,
he didn't play for like five weeks, comes back and
finished fourth last week. He was a runner up here
last year and seventeenth before that, so I can't ignore
those numbers. Really really good off the tee. His putting
isn't amazing, but in this field, you're good, you're You're
gonna have to pick somebody that's got a little bit
of a whole our game. Yeah, so yeah, yeah, So
the runner up last year, the fourth place last year,
the good for him this entire year makes him might
pick who are you going with?
Speaker 2: Well?
Speaker 3: Last week I went with Kegan, but then I hemmed
in hot and I said, really, I kind of wanted
to do Harry Hall. Well, Harry Hall was the better play,
so I kicked myself there. I'm probably gonna do the same.
I'm gonna go with Jenny McCarthy and I'll go into
deeper dive on him later. Intent But my alternative for
those that want another option, if you already us DMC,
I don't know why you use TMAC in case he did.
Lucas Glover good history here kind of kind of thrive
on this type of course, so he'd be the other guy.
But Danny McCarthy is my guy. I'm gonna get into
him a little bit later as to why I love
it so much.
Speaker 1: All right, love it, love it, agree with it as well.
So let's get into the course here, and we are
talking TPC deer run. Cut to the chase. It's pretty
easy par seventy one, just over seventy two fifty yards.
They got pretty wide fairways. The weather's gonna make these
greens really, really receptive. Even as of now we're recording
this Tuesday morning. There's even gonna be a little bit
rained Saturday night overnight, so it's like, oh now they're
gonna get even more receptive greens on Sunday. And as
as just Thavas has always told us, you give us
receptive greens, we're gonna tear it up. So this is
a place where you gotta go low, like it's just
a requirement. Even even to make the cut, you're gonna
have to have really really good scoring, so reachable par
five and the seventeenth that sets it up for a
really nice eighteenth hole run. And I just think it's
a layout where there's really not much testing these guys.
There there are trees, They're not the most difficult trees
in the world. It's not like you're gonna be hitting
into forests. And you know, the other thing is with
these soft fairways, the runoff Like you know, super dry course,
you may hit a fairway, but it may run off
into the rough. It's not the case with these fairways.
So I don't think these guys are gonna have any
problems putting it out into the fairway. And then it
comes down to getting a hot putter. So the greens,
they're receptive, they're not huge. There's a couple of them
that are pretty good. They do have some good elevation changes.
There's water like you know, eighteenth features water. There's some
pretty cool views of rivers around. But there's really not
one type of player it favors. I think just in
the end, and I know this sounds pretty obvious, but
Nick hottest putter is gonna be the one, And we
talk about this. This is the kind of This is
the kind of course and tournament where someone out of
nowhere it's hot with the putter over war rounds and
all of a sudden, oh, there's someone at eighty to one,
winning the tournament. So what's your take on TPC Deer Run.
Speaker 3: Not much, I mean literally the eseiest way to describe it.
It's just it's an extension from last week. You know,
it's gonna be the same tournament, it's gonna be the
same type of scoring. There's really no trouble off the tee.
There's no trouble. I mean, the rough is up at
the tallest point, up to four inches, but again, like
we saw last week, it was too and it's not thick.
So most of the time they're hitting the rough, they're
they're staying kind of fluffed up a bit. They're not
really going to the bottom and they're not like settling
into a thick area. Occasionally you'll get the bad lie
in the rough, which you know will happen, but over
the course of the tournament, it's not nothing there. And
as is most weeks, hitting greens and making putts is
good win the tournament. Well, there's not a huge disparity
between a lot of these players on hitting greens. There's
not anybody that's like eye poppingly good or at least
that much better than the rest of the field.
Speaker 2: Putting, though, there are some guys that can really roll
the rock, and.
Speaker 3: You have to shoot though, I mean, you're gonna have
to average, you know, six hundred par likely every round
to win this thing. Twenty five we gets you to
twenty four hundred, which is a common winning score here.
Twenty eight was last year with Davis Thompson. So now
I think it's an extentrament last week. Whatever you did.
If you had success last week in your bets and
you were targeting certain types of players, it's probably going
to work again the same way. If for whatever reason
you had no successful then one eighty to that and
that should give you success. This week is exactly the
same as last week. The greens pretty much average for
pjh or size fifty five hundred. So again, nothing nothing
here that's tricky. So I expect this to be, like
you said, blow scoring. Weather doesn't look to be an issue.
It looks if anything, that's helping the scoring, because it
might be a little thunderstorm action over the weekend, but
otherwise pretty seasonal and fourth of July, you know, probably
doesn't get a lot of a TV coverage, but probably
we'll be watching.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, you know listen that this course
is not really my house, but it's in the same,
you know, area of the country. We've got a stunning
amount of rain man around here. Like I got up
this morning, it's everything's soaked, Like we've never had this
much rain in this area. You know, normally it's rought
drought instead of grass is you know, a mile high.
So it's uncharacteristically wet around here for this kind of year.
So all right, real quick, let's do my favorite hole
on this course. I chose the fourth hole, four hundred
and fifty five yard par four. There's not a lot
of holes on this course that really stand out, but
you know me, nick, I love a good random obstacle
in the middle of a hole. This just has a
gigantic tree splitting the fairway. You're gonna want to be
to the right of the tree to have a much
closer approach into the dog leg right. The green does
have some pretty steep bunkers on the left that's got
runoff on the right, so your approach is gonna need
to be accurate. You have to be careful not to
get around this big tree. They should be able to
get past it, but if you get under it, where
the branches are screwing up your approach. You accidentally hit it, Yeah,
you can, you give yourself a little bit of problem.
So I just love I love holes where it's very
Putt Putt course esque, where there's just a random obstacle
in the middle of the fairway. The eighteenth hole rating
nothing too special about this hole. It's a four point three.
Like the rest of the course, it's just not very difficult.
Fairway bends are the right, there is a big fairway
bunker on the left. There's trees on the right, so
accuracy does need to be there in the fairway. It's
a fairly easy approach. There is water on the left,
so I'm just expecting the right side of this green
to get most of the shots. Not a very dramatic hole,
but the element of water next to it makes it
a little little bit interesting. But this hole just kind
of blends in with the rest of the course. I
don't expect a lot of drama on this one. You'll
maybe see a few balls in the water on eighteen,
but nothing that's gonna nothing that's gonna affect the leaders
in my opinion. So let's take a look at the
total strokes game. While we're doing that, if you guys
could please do us a favor and hit the like
button and leave us a comment. You know, we go
in and read all the comments, and you guys have
been absolutely crushing the comment section this year. So interested
to see who you guys have picked for winners. Give
me some props, give me some outrights, give me some
long shots. It's a really really good field to try
that in. So let's take a look at total strokes gained.
Nick in, I love this graphic in these tournaments because
you're seeing a lot of names that we wouldn't normally
talk about. So let's say a look here and what
can we decipher from I mean, Michael Kim makes an appearance,
Holy Blood Cawley, Ryan Girard. Alright, talk us through these
What are your takeaways?
Speaker 3: Quite a quite a different to take here on these
on these player names than we're used to see it.
And it's always fun because I have to adjust my
color conditional coloring here for these type of screens, because
you know, the strokes gained when sky Scheffer's at over
three as the leader versus when the leaders that just
barely over one. It required a little different, a little
different shading on this Yes, on this graphic, but the
fact that Jason Day is number one or the last
twelve months kind of tells you where we're at with
this field. Ben Griffin clearly the hottest player and that
shows in the shorter term three month stroke game numbers
there over on the right hand column. But surprising names
not really, I mean, this is kind of who you'd
expect to be in the better players in this field.
Sungai Am is a guy that just you know, we've
always talked about for years, consistency, consistency, consistency, But you
can see here in this graphic the six month and
three month trends are going the wrong way. Same with
Luke Clanton who turned professional officially, so he's just trying
to get his feet are going to get under his
feet under him, I guess he could say. And Lucas
Glover I mentioned earlier, it's kind of same thing. He's
trending the wrong way right now, but very good course
history here. David Thompson's getting a play this week because
he's a defending chant, but really from what you see
in this graphic, he probably wouldn't be taking him because
he's trending the wrong way However, in this field, sometimes
those trends don't really matter what you're doing if you're
going the wrong way, because all it takes is one
of the week, and it's not in the field is
consistently going to be making cuts or consistently going to
be finished out twenties.
Speaker 2: With these guys, anybody can have a bad week just
as easy as anybody can have a good week.
Speaker 3: But Postings a one that's had a lot of success here,
he's playing pretty well right at the moment, one of
the better ones in the field. The guys down at
the bottom, I added in, because they're more of the
guys playing the best in the last three or six months.
You already mentioned the bottom player there, thorpe Jornson, thorpe Jornson,
thorpe Jornson. I just want to make sure I have
to say say that correctly.
Speaker 2: Mikey very very good.
Speaker 1: Let's go with Mikey t.
Speaker 3: Playing very good over the short short stand. And Gerard
was a guy that's like, if you're not paying attention,
you're not.
Speaker 2: Never going to know his name.
Speaker 3: But he's sneakily being pretty consistent and in this field
kind of leaps and bounds above most of the guys here.
Same with Bud Colly, who's made a return the last
year and a half from like a three year it
is with injuries, so it's good to see him back
in there.
Speaker 2: But listen, don't be stuck in this graphic. I usually always,
you know, mention how important it is to stick to
this graphic and the signatures and the majors.
Speaker 3: But in this type of field, this graphic doesn't matter.
I also mentioned last week that twenty four of the
twenty five tournaments this year, excluding the three alternate fields,
have been won by somebody in the top twenty five
in strokes game last twelve six or three months. Last week,
pot Geter was not in that, so he's twenty four
of twenty six. So if you're gonna venture down from
this list, it's usually still the next year that wins,
so it's not too far down.
Speaker 2: But you can certainly throw some darts this week and
take some long shot.
Speaker 1: Guys, love it, love it. Let's jump into players that
can trip you up. And this was one of the
toughest ones because I'm trying to figure out who is
everyone going to pick this week, So we're just gonna
start with Chris got her Up, which I'm sure Chris
got her up never expected to be in this category.
But he's being priced like a contender this week, and
I get it, Nick, You're gonna have to put some
of these guys in contention. But the results don't back
it up here. Despite the short odds, he has not
posted a single top ten all year, missed the cut
here last year twenty twenty four, putting massive, massive concern
minus zero point four to seven strokes gained over the
last thirty days. That is not gonna get it done
on a birdie friendly layout where you have to have
a hot potter. So I think he is a fade
at this number. I'm not putting him in dfs. I'm
certainly not putting him in head to heads where he's
matched up against these higher priced guys. So Chris got
Her Up is priced way too high for me. Davis Thompson,
last year's winner. Don't let that distract you. He's not
been very good in twenty twenty four. Hasn't finished better
than tenth all season. Potter ice cold, losing minus zero
point three to nine strokes over the last six months. Again,
bad potter on a course where you have to go
low on the greens course. History alone is not enough
to justify me backing him. In fact, I think he's overpriced.
To fade him if I get a good head to
head match up with him, and then we'll go with
Pearsonson Coody as being priced like a contender. But I
just don't think he's shown enough at the PGA Tour level.
He's had really really good strong results on the corn Ferry.
Is just one finish better than twenty fifth in seven
PGA Tour starts this year. He finished thirtieth last year.
Again a week field. It's solid, but it's not enough
to justify a really good performance here. So weak field
betters may we may be chasing upside. This price tag
to me doesn't give me value on the upside. So
Chris goddr Up, Davis Thompson and Pierces and Cooty, I
think these are guys that are a little bit overpriced
this week. All right, Nick, let's take a look at
your favorite favorite. Before you do that, tell her and
what you have upper clients at wager talk.
Speaker 3: Sure, right now we have the well not the finals,
but the end of the FIFA Club World Cup. We
got some matches going on today Tuesday, and the semi
final of the Gold Cup, which is the USA in
Mexico basically.
Speaker 2: Tournament going on. Both of those are nearing their end.
Speaker 3: We got a little bit of time left, but have
plays up for those over the next week and then
MLS still in full action weekend car will be up
later this week and that's really all that's going on
for me right now. During the summer. Of course, John
Deere Classic pack isn't up and available as well. We
did give out pot Geeter after round one last week
nine to one. It wasn't the sexy one hundred and one,
but I was never gonna say ahead of the tournament,
but after watching that first round, I was like, you
know what, where it's worth something, So hopefully we can
do the same here.
Speaker 2: I'm trying to track Andy this year. A lot of the.
Speaker 3: I guess like mid tournament type of data, you know,
what does what does the winner look like after round
one and round two? Right to try to pinpoint where
you can get those live winners.
Speaker 2: And so far, so good. Obviously last week was a
good winner.
Speaker 3: But just gathering a lot of data so that I
can attack these type of tournaments, because let's be honest,
these ones are.
Speaker 2: Crap shoots, right, It's hard to pick a guy to
win this thing. Could be anybody.
Speaker 3: But after round one or two, yeah, your odds are
not nearly as good. But if you get nine to one,
ten to one, twelve to one on a potential winner
at this type of tournament, I think it's great. So
hopefully we'll have some success as we go forward with
those type of plays.
Speaker 1: Love it, love it. Let's talk your favorite favorite who
near the top of the odds list. Have you pegged
this week?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mentioned before it's d Mac. I mean, I
don't think you have to go dive too deep to know.
His recent success here is fantastic. Three straight top seven
finishes at TPC Seed Deer Run, So you know that
could blow up in our face and all of a sudden,
a big miscut. But certainly he's going to have confidence
around here, and it does feel like, you know, a
win at this place is just a matter of win.
But he really makes sense as far as his player profile.
You have to make berdies and bunches, and the only
way to do that is to.
Speaker 2: Have a hot hutter.
Speaker 3: And he's once again and I say once again, because
it's like every year this guy's a top ten, if
not the best on tour. He ranks ninth right now.
This season starts game putting, so he can roll the rock.
You have to be able to do that. On this season.
He only has two top tens, but that's among eight
top twenties. But the best part about d MAC is that.
Speaker 2: He makes the weekend. He hasn't missed a cut this
year and he sixteen starts, tied for twelve in his
last start at the Travelers, which was two weeks ago,
so he's got a little benefit of rest not playing
last week as well. But he doesn't miss cuts. That's
going to give us a chance.
Speaker 3: Even if he has a slow maybe Thursday or Friday,
he probably rallies on the other round and we make
the cut and maybe we back to ourselves into a
top ten or top twenty if he's not playing great
right off the bat. But I think v MA is
gonna have a good week. I'd be very surprised if
he's not in contention.
Speaker 1: Again, let's take a look at draft Kings Darlings. Yeah,
you're right, I mean Denny McCarthy, My god, who can
go on a hotter streak with a putter than Denny McCarthy's.
I believe pretty amazing how he can get that done.
So all right, let's take a look at Draft Kings.
Darlings had a great week last week. Finished sixteenth out
of two hundred in a tournament last week, so yeah,
the previous week wasn't very good, but last week we
had a really really solid showing. Really never in doubt here.
So we're going right back to Adam had one at
sixty eight hundred, came through for us last week. He
pretty much gave us exactly what we wanted, which was
he made the weekend. Wasn't huge upside, but he got
us weekend points and that's all we're looking for. That's
made the cut in seven out of his last eight starts,
so really steady form and in weak field like this,
I would expect them to make the cut again. Not
a high ceiling play, but sometimes what they say, sometimes
par is good enough to win. So just give me
a made cut here on this on this course and
give me some weekend points and we'll be really really
happy with that one. Going back to Austin Ekrot, who's
been really good for us, He's been a quiet nice asset,
making the cut in six straight events, consistently delivering weekend points.
Stat profile isn't amazing, but he's just been steady enough
to be priced at this lower level and still get
us weekend points. So cut making street matters in DFS
e coroath price is a little bit low, so he
does have a little bit of upside, but again just
weekend points. And now this guy does have some pretty
good upside. Kevin Roy seventy four hundred. He's becoming one
of my favorite DraftKings darlings. He's made the cut in
seven straight tournaments. He's in those seven tournaments, he's had
an eighth place finish, eighteenth place finish, a fifteenth place finish.
So consistency and a little upside at seventy four hundred
makes this a play that I think you have to
have in your lineup. So and as always, my final
lineup is going to be on my free digital download article.
It's on the same page where all my plays are posted.
Wt dot Buzz slash al. If you're watching this on Tuesday,
it is five dollars Tuesday. All Haiti kappers can put
up a play for five dollars. We've got one of
our team totals that is up. We're on a twenty
four to ten run in team totals, thirty five and
twenty on totals this year, so totals have been really
really good source of income. And this is one is
in the MLB. Absolutely love that one and it's only
five bucks, So take advantage of five dollars Tuesday and
take advantage of the free digital download article WT dot
Buzz slash Al. All right, let's look at another long
shot here DraftKings Darlings and then another long shot in
a field that is kind of full of long SHOT's Nick,
who did you have circle down the list on the
odds page.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you mentioned you're not going to find a player,
you know, that's not going to have some sort of
part of his game that you're like, eh, you know,
it's kind of this whole field is he got to
take your chances on somebody that might not be fully
fully rounded. But balla hockey. I really love how he's
been playing in these type.
Speaker 2: Of fields this year. He does have four miss cuts
on the season in fifteen individual.
Speaker 3: Starts, but he's had several good starts in these again
these type of fields. He had a solo fourth at
the Houston Open, ty for twelfth, the Balero Texas Open
ty for seventh, and Myrtle Beach ty for nineteenth at
the Rocket Classic last week, just to prove again this
is kind of his pedigree. He's got a couple other
top twenty finishes and tougher events at the RBC Heritage,
a signature event, and then a Farmer's Insurance Open, which
Tory Pines is.
Speaker 2: Always very very difficult golf course. So he's got several
good results this year. Unless you're a nut like us,
you probably have never heard of this guy. But Ballamachy
is worth a look.
Speaker 3: He's got the recipe I think for these low scoring events.
He plushes his irons. He ranks twenty seventh actually in
strokeskin approached this season, which is in the top ten
in this field.
Speaker 2: This week.
Speaker 3: He's also in the top ten in strokes game this
putting this season he comes.
Speaker 2: In an eighth, so eighth best partter.
Speaker 3: On tour right now this year and in the top
ten and strokes skin approached in this field. Those two
it's exactly why I like d Mac And now you
get me Ballamachi at one hundred to one, okay, is
it going to win? But plus eight fifty for a
top ten or plus three sixty for a top twenty,
I think no brainers, and then you just sprinkle a
little bit on the hundred and one. But he's gonna
have to make a lot of berdies. He can roll
the rock. He's hit his irons better than most of
this field. I think it's a recipe for success, and
he's shown that he can he can play and have
good results in these type of fields.
Speaker 2: So Sammy Day for the long shot win.
Speaker 1: Love it? Love it? Uh Yeah, A lot a lot
of interesting sprinkles and long shots in this field this week.
So I still go back to Jason Day being the
number one last week.
Speaker 2: I know, it's crazy, feels like two.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm surprised Griffin hasn't caught him even in last
twelve surprise hasn't caught him this year. So yeah, beg
Griffin will be in my DFS lineup, Like I feel
like he's like almost the new Scottie Sheffler. You have
to put him in some of these lineups. Like if
you're played in seasonal Fantasy, you gotta use up.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I can't.
Speaker 1: It doesn't matter. I don't care. I don't care what
he did last year and now it doesn't such amazing
form this year. Yeah yeah, did not, did not, did
not see the Ben Griffin just Elite status come through,
So all right, that is gonna do it for us,
Go and hit the like button. We got a big
couple of weeks coming up for Tea Time, so we've
got another major down the road. We got the Scottish Open,
which is always really fun to handicap and figure out,
so it should be a good couple of weeks. Make
sure you're subscribed to the YouTube channel two hundred and
seven thousand subscribers, so join the wage you Talk family.
That way, get notified when all the videos go live,
when all the videos get released, especially Tea Time, because
we'll be with you for the rest of the season,
so hit the like button. Make sure you leave us
comment in the comment section. Good luck on all your
plays and take care