Speaker 1: You know all this stuff with AI coming out, there's
just going to be more and more demands on energy. Obviously,
natural gas is used to produce electricity on levels, so
I think at some point despite other fundamental I mean,
obviously fundamentally, there's gonna be a lot more natural gas
you have put out there too under this administration.
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Speaker 3: And welcome you are listening to the Financial Survival Network.
I'm your host, Carrie Lutz. And well, these markets have
been volatile, watching the gold oil oil trading at under
sixty bucks a barrel. Who would ever believe that that
could happen? And yet here we are and get a
better grasp of it. Our good friend Michael Moore from
More Analytics is with us today. Michael, welcome back. So hey,
interesting interesting markets here, aren't they?
Speaker 1: Yes, Kerry, thank you very much for having me back
on your show. I appreciate it always.
Speaker 3: So where should we start? Should we start with oil?
We always like oil.
Speaker 1: Okay, start off with the crew oil. We had been
in quite a slide from late September from sixty five
to seventy seven to brow down to fifty five ninety
six to barrel, but we turned bullish a couple of
days ago. The trade above fifty seven forty three, I said,
projected this upward, and we've seen four dollars and forty
four cents of that so far coming into today. And
then we broke back above a significant pattern at sixty nine,
which are also warns of continued strength. We've seen about
a dollar seventy eight of that so far, so I
feel we're probably going to see continued strength in general
from that in.
Speaker 3: The days ahead.
Speaker 1: If we were to fail back down through that formation,
which is going to commit a sixty oh eight through tomorrow,
then that would likely bring back in renewed pressure. But
I would also note that the R bomb, which is
another word for unleaded gasoline, so when crude oils, when
crude oil is brought in, it is put through a
refinery and it's broken out into two amongst other products.
The two main products that come from it are unleaded
gasoline and heating oil, which are put through a process
called cracker and crack those out of there. But those
are the main drivers for the demand of the crude oil,
and more recently the demand for heating oil has really
been leading the upside.
Speaker 3: Mm hmm. That mean we're going to have a cold
winter in the Northeast.
Speaker 1: Not necessarily, I don't. I know this may sound odd,
even though I analyze these every day and make some
of the larger predictions in the industry, don't really pay
attension a lot to the fundamentals because the technical analysis
of price action gives you signals in the market ninety
percent of the time earlier than the fundamentals will present themselves,
even though the fundamentals are the very underpinnings of why
these move.
Speaker 3: Okay, all right, so interesting though, what I find really
interesting is that the prices went down in the first
place in the face of inflation. Is this market pressures
that are causing it to go down or is it
a manipulation of some sort.
Speaker 1: Well, there's a lot obviously, with this new administration and
stuff like that, opening up a lot of avenues for
our energy to be put out there, especially eric and energy.
So there's a general expectation that energy prices would go down,
being that there'd be a lot more supply out there.
But that's obviously that can be interrupted at any time
due to geopolitical events or.
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, we know about them. What the geopolitical events
they happen, also known as black swans, right, or gray
swans or even white swans exactly.
Speaker 1: And then market structure has its own corrective tendencies. The
heating oil actually was the one of the main reasons
why it's very important to analyze the unleaded gasoline and
the heating oil when you're looking at the crude oil
is because unleaded gasoline and heating oil their price action
will lead the price action of crude oil eighty to
n tinety percent of the time. So, for instance, the
heating well was the first one that suggested that there
was going to be a turnaround in the market because
it broke back above a pattern on October seventeenth, at
around two thirteen fifty five. And it's sewer that two
thirteen forty three that warned of renewed strength, and that's
rallied now up to two thirty five sixty seven at
other multiple levels, so that's still bullish. It also left
a medium bullish reversal below yesterday that warned of higher
trade for days. So this pronounced spike up here is
pretty significant spike to have in just a couple of days.
And the R bob again, which is another word for
unleaded gasoline, that also left a medium bullish reversal below
yesterday which warned of higher trade for days, and that
turned bullish on the break above six twenty seven, and
now we're treating up at one eighty eight twelve, right,
pretty pretty sizeable move for just a couple of days.
Speaker 3: Okay, all right, So what else you got for us today? Michael?
You got like it's been a while since we last spoke,
and uh, I know you've been busy. What else are
we looking at? Well?
Speaker 1: The Brenton here also just talking about the London markets.
That's left the medium bullish reversal below as well, and
has been bullish since the break above sixty one fifty.
So we've seen our sixty one fifty five. We've seen
four dollars and fifty seven cents of that so far,
and then it broke above another significant level, that sixty
four to twenty nine, which also warns of strength for days.
I guess I don't really have to go over the gas. Well,
it's very similar to our heating oil. But if you'd like,
I could, uh, yeah, would you.
Speaker 3: I've just always had a little interest in that gas myself,
the way the markets evolved from take or pay contracts,
from the days when not gas was more expensive for
BTU than home heating oil was, and the way that's changed.
So you know, that market's evolved, and I'm always fascinated
by it. I don't know quite why it has, but
it certainly has.
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, well, I can get into the natural gas.
I'm sorry I had said gas oil before. It sounds
a little bit more like natural gas.
Speaker 3: Put out gas oil, Okay.
Speaker 1: Gas oil is, you know, basically the London equivalent of
heating oil.
Speaker 3: Sure.
Speaker 1: Sure, But the natural gas I can climb into with
you if you like. So the natural gas. You've had
me on your show a number of times in the
past couple of years, but we've been barishing there from
eight dollars and twenty cents point eight and we've seen
six dollars of sixty eight cents of that to the downside,
which is a very significant move. And then more recently
we got bullish. We held a macro exhaustion level down
below at two ninety one twenty with a two eighty
nine thirty low, and I've rallied six hundred and seventy
nine ticks from there into a bullish correction. And the
bullish correction, I said, was bear with me against the
move down from four point fifty seven to thirty, and
then possibly against the move down from five thirty nine
to sixty. So we had a minimum target to the
upside of three forty two thirty, which we took out,
and our next target is three sixty five eighty and
we became shy of that by three point fifty seven
to twenty and then roll over over today. Currently right now,
it's bearsh You just broke below a formation that came
in at three forty two ninety, which warns of pressure
likely for days. If we were break back above where
that line comes in at three forty two ninety minus
point four of a tick per hour starting at eleven
o'clock PM, that would warn to we need strength. I
do think that.
Speaker 4: This is likely going to be a pullback here within
a bullish correction against one of those moves down from
either four point fifty seven thirty or five thirty nine sixty,
because we're still pretty early into this.
Speaker 1: Also, structurally, taking out three fifty eight to fifty would
be key in the market because that is basically the
top of this grinding basing market that we've been in
since mid August. So this may roll over a bit,
drift sideways a bit, and then if we start heading
up to take out those levels, it'll leave it and
even an even more healthy base where well symmetrical base
below for this to then launch more to the upside. Also,
and again I'm not a big fundamental person, but you know,
all of this stuff, with AI coming out, there's just
gonna be more and more demands on energy. Obviously, natural
gas is used to produce electricity on levels, so I
think at some point, despite other fundamental I mean, obviously fundamentally,
there's gonna be a lot more natural gas being put
out there too under this administration or allowed. So it'll
be interesting to see the dynamics between this too. But
I think the demand for it could be very significant
in the next couple of years. Barring any other significant
technological advance to produces some other type of energy.
Speaker 3: Right, all right, so okay, onto the next Okay, So.
Speaker 1: Then if you'd like, we could switch modes here and
jump into the SP five hundred next, okay, and the
S ANDPS bear with me just a minute. So again,
I've been on your show for periodically for quite some time,
so you know that in past shows I've been bullish
in the SMP five hundred innext since holding a macrosaush
from below at thirty five oh two, and we've rallied
three thy three hundred and ten point twenty five points
into this bull trend. That a lot of other bullish
calls since then, and then more recently I just put
all that bullishness on hold. Yesterday. The trade back below
sixty eighth four twenty five has brought in one hundred
and thirteen point five of pressure, and if we see
another break below sixty six seventy seven eighty one zero
point five to nine per hour starting at eleven thirty,
that a war of additional pressure. Now, one big thing
I would mention in the S and P five hundred
and next is we have a very significant formation that
has been building in here, and this formation has been
building since July, and so where we were set up
up here is if it fails down through it's already
failed back below a formation up here which is bearish,
and if it fails down below that other formation just below,
which I said would also be bearish, that'll set up
another level to get short below, and then a more
significant level down below is going to be at sixty
six h one forty five plus twenty six per hour
starting at eleven thirty pm, and a decent break below
there is going to project this downward one hundred and
ninety five minimum two hundred and seventy five plus maximum,
and that, like I said, it's very well formed formation.
You could see a good deal more than that. That'll
also be a very pivotal area. If we were to
break below that formation decently and back up through it decently,
that would mourn of decent strength. Now, when I say decently,
that is not supposed to be a vague term. It's
just a term that I use. I to my clients.
I send out what that decent number is every day.
It changes each day, but today it's thirty four point
five points. So in other words, if it broke below
that line by thirty four point five points, that would
be your confirmation of being short below it, and it
would have to break back above the line by thirty
four point five points to negate that bias on the
downside and switch the bias back to lamm.
Speaker 3: Gotcha, all right?
Speaker 1: All right, So over to the gold if you like it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's go to the gold. Okay.
Speaker 1: So the gold had a sizeable correction over the past
couple of days.
Speaker 3: Certainly did that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I'd said in here, so in the gold. Also,
I've been on your show for a while, so you know,
I've been bullish since August sixteenth of twenty eighteen. With
the break above eleven eighty three, then we've seen three
two hundred and fourteen per ounce to the upside. A
lot of other bull calls in here, but more recently
I just put those on hold. I warn the trade
back below forty three eighty nine sixty would likely bring
in pressure. We've seen three hundred and sixty eight point
four per ounce from there, and then the trade below
forty one to ninety six. I also said, warns of
pressure possibly for two hundred plus. We've only seen one
hundred and seventy four point eight of that, but still
a good portion of it, and then the trade below
forty one twenty three forty awesome word to pressure. We've
seen one hundred and two point two of that, But
we are testing that line as we speak, which comes
in at forty one thirty six fifty plus per hour
starting at eleven twenty pm. That's not a line how
we get long above. I would note though, that it's
eleven twenty four right now. Gold closes it one thirty
pm Eastern Standard time. And if we leave a maintained
gap higher in there on the day, which it looks
like there's a good likelihood we will, that would put
the bearishness on hold. What that means is today the
current official session, which would the low, would be forty
one thirteen seventy and yesterday's high. I don't want to
use the term pit session because obviously we don't have
a pit open up anymore, but the official session of
when it's open. Yesterday's high was forty one oh one
right we currently is forty one thirteen seventy. If that
gap between price action remains, that would suggest that this
is bull's.
Speaker 3: Short term Let me just kind of makes sense, right,
What's that kind of make sense, doesn't it?
Speaker 1: Yeah? Yeah, exactly, And I think you know, so on
a very macro level, let me just jump macro here,
since you know, September of twenty twenty two, this is
basically holding the last final macro possible exhaustion that it
could hold up at forty three fifty one. Although it
violated to it quite a bit up to forty three
to ninety eight, it's generally holding it, and we smack
down a bit. If this was going to correct in
a more significant nature, you know, that would have to
be over quite a period of time more than this.
So we may see if we don't take out the high,
we may see some some decent volatility here as or
if this corrects to the downside. If it does take
out that high, it just suggests that this is continuing
into continuing in a more macro.
Speaker 3: Trem gotcha, all right? All right? What else we got? Bitcoin? Yep?
Speaker 1: So bitcoin again, I've been on with you for quite
a while, so I'm just going over to the macro
stuff here. I've been bullish in here's fince the break
above sixteen two seventy five, So we saw one hundred
and ten thousand, nine hundred and sixty five per coin
from there, with a lot of other bullish calls along
the way. Then they got barish on the break below
one twenty four to twenty eight, and we saw twenty thousand,
four hundred and eighty three per coin below there, and
a couple other bearish calls on.
Speaker 3: The way down.
Speaker 1: Those are currently on hold, and we just held exhaustion
on the down side at one of four to two
oh three to one oh three five fifty eight, with
at one oh three seven forty five low and rallied
ten thousand, six hundred and thirty five. We also left
the gap higher in place on October twentieth, So we
do have a four meat just above that comes in
at one eleven three eighty seven minus fifty four per
hour starting at eleven eleven o'clock AM Eastern Standard time.
A decent break above there is going to project this
upward about six thousand minimum, right, could be more like
just give me a second lik here, and it could
be more in the tune of twelve thousand. We were
to break above that decently and back down through it decently,
that would warn a decent pressure and decent in there
today is one and seventy five, and there's a minor
formation below that comes in at six, and that increases
by actually, you know what, scratch that formation. I don't
really like the whittings drawn, but there is one below
here if we take out, if we if we leave
a maintain gap lower intact tomorrow, that would lead a
minor barish reversal above that would warrant reneed pressure to
the downside. All right, the thing on a macro level
in here, Let's just give me one more second. This
possibly could possibly be in a bearish the beginnings of
the bearish correction of the move up from fourteen nine
to twenty five. But what does that mean? Let me
just give you a little bit more teath to that.
Speaker 5: It means that if we're gonna correct here, then it
could correct right up into October twenty twenty six, with
wide sideways downward more on October.
Speaker 3: Huh really for a year? Yeah, I mean really run.
Speaker 1: Up from from November of twenty twenty two, that's taken
from that all the way up to October twenty five. Yeah,
about three years. So a correction of a year wouldn't
be out of the realm of possibilities. Of course, anything
can happen in here. I'm talking pretty macro out there.
Speaker 3: Yeah, do you think good's possible that we could see
a short squeeze in.
Speaker 1: Bitcoin if it takes out that formation above? You know,
I think you'd see a short squeeze. Again, my analysis
is for the most part geared fairly short to medium term.
So you know, I usually have traders in the direction
of what the market's going within two to three days
of a market turning point.
Speaker 3: How will we know, so you said, when it takes
out a particular level, which level we talking about that
it needs to take out?
Speaker 1: So on the upside, I mean, I'm already bullish right
now short term, as I said, And on the upside
if we take out.
Speaker 3: Just give me a sick.
Speaker 1: It takes some eight to calculation.
Speaker 3: Not Hey, you're on a computer, you're doing this live.
We appreciate, we appreciate the moment by moment market commentary. There.
Speaker 1: Thank you appreciate what eleven three eighty seven mayas fifty
four per hour starting at eleven o'clock AM Eastern Standard times.
We break above there by one thousand, eight hundred and
seventy five. That would confirm the bullishness above it, not
that you have to buy right there. You go buy
it and to pull back back to the line, and
your stop is going to be one thousand, eight hundred
and seventy five back below wherever the line comes in
keeping and it decreases by fifty four per hour starting
eleven o'clock, and so that's your projector that would have
a minimum projection to the upside of six thousand in
a maximum of eleven to twelve thousand plus. When I
say a maximum of one, you know, eleveny twelve thousand plus.
That means that the formation itself has its own projections.
But obviously, if the market is trending in that direction,
you could see far more than what the projections of
the formation give you.
Speaker 3: Right, gotcha? Interesting? Interesting?
Speaker 1: And likewise, if we break above this line decently and
back down through it decently, it would be a good
short And then you put your stop and seventy five
back above the line. Now, as you get long above
the line, since the line is decreasing each hour, your
stop is actually going against you and widening out against you.
If you break above there decently and back down through
it decently and gets short. Then your stop is actually
moving in your favor because it's moving down above the
line that you were short below.
Speaker 3: Got it, Got it all right? So uh all right,
So it looks like we're kind of like in a
little holding pattern here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but it shouldn't. Shouldn't be very long right here,
just chopping the chopping sideways for a number of days.
It should be should be breaking out of here pretty soon.
Speaker 3: Okay.
Speaker 1: My feeling is I I wouldn't be surprised to see
it rally a bit and then roll back over. But
that's just that's just off the cuff, get a pop up,
and then it roll over them.
Speaker 3: All right. So anything else you want to cover, not really,
unless you have any questions on that.
Speaker 1: I mean I could, I could get into all kinds
of heavier detail on you know, spreads and the and
the energies and stuff, but I don't. I'm not sure
if you're.
Speaker 3: If I think we're good. I think we got to what.
I think we got what we came for.
Speaker 1: I would just say this though, for for your audience.
If you are trading crude oil as part of your portfolio,
are you not looking at the r at the unletted
gas and the heat oil. You are putting yourself at
a great disadvantage because, for instance, my clients, I'll have
them bullish the heating oil. I'll have them a long
the heating.
Speaker 6: Oil instead of the crude oil, even though the crude
oile is going up. Since the heating oil is leading
the market movement, you're going to make more money in
the heating oil than you would in the crude even
having your risk coming.
Speaker 1: Out of the gate basically the same. So it Harbell
ever wanted to have a great leading indicator of a
market in the crude oil. Your leading indicators are the
unletted gas or the heating oil, and you can determine
those based off of spreads between them, which I do
in a more technical level.
Speaker 3: So, so, how HI you think home heating oil can go?
Speaker 1: I don't really have much more of a projection for
it from here. I'm just bullish right now. Actually I
don't have a specific projection right here. I'm just bullish, gotcha.
Sometimes I do have measured amounts. I mean, so your
question is valid, uh, I just at this at this point,
right now, I don't have a measured move.
Speaker 3: Like I do in the in the bitcoin understood understood?
All right, Well, hey, we always appreciate you coming on, Michael.
Just tell us how we can subscribe to your work
where we find you and all that good stuff.
Speaker 1: Sure, I appreciate it. Yes, my website is more Analytics
dot com. That's just spelled m o o R with
no E at the end, so it's m o O
R A N A L Y T I c S
dot com. And you can look at the different products
I have on there for energy or whatnot. And by
the way, Carrie, if you, if you or your subscribers
have ever have any want a an opinion here or
there on the s P five hundred or goal to
bitcoin or energies, you're always welcome the uh give me
a call or just pulled me in real quick, and yeah, absolutely.
I I do analysis every morning and I send that
out to traders in the am prior to the open
of the market every day. Those are actionable trading suggestions,
and then in the afternoon I do a video podcast
every day that I also send out to traders.
Speaker 3: All right, excellent, excellent, appreciate you coming on. Any questions
for Michael myself, shoot me an email KL at Kerrie
LUTs dot com and for all you interested, we're now
just strictly substock only. No more running my own website.
I did that for fifteen years, had enough of it.
But I think the substock gives us so many different
ways to keep in touch with you, to keep you
up to date on these markets, and to really let
you know what's happening in the world. Michael, it's always
a pleasure. Appreciate you coming on and we will talk
to you again real soon.
Speaker 1: Thank you very much. It's an honor. I appreciate it here.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening. Carry lets this Financial Survival Network your
solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to
Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than
ever