Speaker 1: Hey, everybody, Welcome into the Thinking Crypto Podcasts. You're home
Speaker 1: for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward.
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Speaker 1: Let's kick it off with some bitcoin metrics, so we
Speaker 1: continue to see different bitcoin metrics are signaling that a
Speaker 1: reversal in the market is coming soon. Now, I know
Speaker 1: timing is the hard thing to predict, but we are
Speaker 1: at least using the data and not using our feelings
Speaker 1: or a gut feeling or emotions or whatever it may be.
Speaker 1: We're using the data and that's how we want to
Speaker 1: operate as educated, informed investors. So the Bitcoin MVRV two
Speaker 1: year rolling score right now is at levels or it's
Speaker 1: at the lowest level that has ever been and we've
Speaker 1: seen when it has hit these levels that a major
Speaker 1: reversal is coming soon. So with sentiment and the dumbs,
Speaker 1: people are depressed, they've given up, many are very upset.
Speaker 1: Right There's a lot of anger, depression, fear, and much
Speaker 1: more it's pretty bad right. However, when we have these
Speaker 1: type of conditions along with the data, it means that
Speaker 1: reversal is coming. The big question, as I've been saying though,
Speaker 1: is this just simply a relief rally that we're going
Speaker 1: to see come possibly Q one twenty twenty six, or
Speaker 1: the continuation of the bull market. Now. I've been leaning
Speaker 1: more towards the continuation of the bull market from a
Speaker 1: probability standpoint because of the macro factors. And I verify
Speaker 1: this MVRV score using sentiment, which is a partner of
Speaker 1: the channel. I usually have Brian from Sentiment on where
Speaker 1: we go through the data. And right now, both the
Speaker 1: short term and the long term MVRV ratios are in
Speaker 1: a loss right now, so those traders, folks and long
Speaker 1: term holders are in the loss to a reversal I
Speaker 1: think is coming. Remember markets are cyclical, right, so we
Speaker 1: should expect to see move upwards coming soon. We just
Speaker 1: got to be patient. And one thing that's very different
Speaker 1: this time around, guys. You know the common saying or
Speaker 1: the cliche saying we always hear every cycle, is this
Speaker 1: time is different. Well, it is for the first time ever,
Speaker 1: we have a red candle in the third year after
Speaker 1: they're having Usually it's three green candles and then a
Speaker 1: red candle for the bear market. This time it's only
Speaker 1: been two green candles, So twenty twenty three and twenty
Speaker 1: twenty four and twenty twenty five is closing with a
Speaker 1: red candle, So things are different. So the people who
Speaker 1: are saying this time is not different, it is the
Speaker 1: cyclical pattern here has been broken. But it goes back
Speaker 1: to what I've been saying. I think it's more of
Speaker 1: the bull market extending. I don't believe this is again
Speaker 1: a deep bear market. I think that starts in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty six. The timing We're going to have to wait
Speaker 1: and see. But I do believe the terror off crash
Speaker 1: that affected all markets at the beginning of the year
Speaker 1: prolonged the liquidity cycle. In addition, we had a very
Speaker 1: long period to recover. It took a while for markets
Speaker 1: to recover, versus a usual cyclical pattern that after a
Speaker 1: Q four rally we have a correction and then late
Speaker 1: January things start to creep up again. But this time
Speaker 1: around it took longer than that, and that's why we
Speaker 1: saw bitcoin hitting numal time high in August when it's
Speaker 1: usually sell and may go away. And again I believe
Speaker 1: the timeline has been shifted. So I think we're going
Speaker 1: to see this bull market continue into twenty twenty six.
Speaker 1: That's not a guarantee, that's not a certainty. I know
Speaker 1: many if you want certainties, but no one has a
Speaker 1: crystal ball. So we want to at least use the data.
Speaker 1: And we've been seeing macro factors like what the FED
Speaker 1: and the central banks are doing, returning to quantitative easing
Speaker 1: in addition to rate cuts and liquidity continuing to rise.
Speaker 1: I think all of these things will drive asset prices higher.
Speaker 1: And I'm not the only one who believes that. Here
Speaker 1: here's the headline, Massive liquidity injections to boost bitcoin price
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six, crypto executive says so Bill Barheight,
Speaker 1: who is these CEO of Crypto Exchange and wallet Abra.
Speaker 1: He said he expects a ton of liquidity injections from
Speaker 1: the US Federal Reserve next year as policy makers continue
Speaker 1: cutting interest rates, potentially reviving quantitative easing and boosting risk
Speaker 1: assets such as bitcoin. Here's a quote. We are seeing
Speaker 1: quantitative easing light right now, so we all know the
Speaker 1: FED start a Q again on December twelfth, right, and
Speaker 1: he says here, the FED is starting to buy its
Speaker 1: own bonds. I think demand for government debt is going
Speaker 1: to fall significantly next year along with lower rates. All
Speaker 1: of this bodes well for assets, including bitcoin. So I
Speaker 1: absolutely agree with this thesis. Now this is fact, right,
Speaker 1: this is what the Fed and the central banks are doing.
Speaker 1: So that's why I'm anticipating it. And the other major
Speaker 1: factor is the Crypto Market Structure Bill is expected to
Speaker 1: pass in early twenty twenty six, and that's a major
Speaker 1: catalyst that will unlock a lot of liquidity and innovation.
Speaker 1: So here's the headline. US lawmakers expect to address market
Speaker 1: structure markup in January. So there's multiple phases to getting
Speaker 1: this bill passed and eventually you know, going to Donald
Speaker 1: Trump for signatures. It has to go through the markup
Speaker 1: and approvals for discussion, and you know the government process essentially.
Speaker 1: But according to reports and people familiar with the matter,
Speaker 1: the Banking Committee could hold a markup for the Responsible
Speaker 1: Financial Innovation Act during the second week of January. The
Speaker 1: event would mark progress on advancing legislation that has been
Speaker 1: slowed by Democratic lawmakers' concerns over decentralized finance and the
Speaker 1: longest US government shut down in history. So let's see,
Speaker 1: let's see what happens. We got quite a few bills here, obviously,
Speaker 1: the major one being the market structure. But I do
Speaker 1: believe that they're going to try to get this done.
Speaker 1: So this would be a major catalyst. And I've been
Speaker 1: saying it NonStop. I don't believe the market makers are
Speaker 1: going to leave this type of event on the table,
Speaker 1: which would be a major bider rumor sell the news event. Right,
Speaker 1: you have a massive run up. People are talking about
Speaker 1: how great this bill is going to be, and it
Speaker 1: will be great, but again it's it's kind of the
Speaker 1: information for the masses, not the financially educated, as we've
Speaker 1: seen in the stock market and much more. Plus you
Speaker 1: got crypto companies and AI companies and much we are
Speaker 1: looking to go public. So I don't believe we're sliding
Speaker 1: down into the depths of a bear market. And that
Speaker 1: does not mean, by the way, that we won't see
Speaker 1: further corrections. So bitquin could dump literally the beginning of January.
Speaker 1: It could literally dump down to seventy something thousand dollars, right,
Speaker 1: so just be prepared for that. But still be structurally
Speaker 1: sound to continue upwards. Now, folks, big news from Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: So Trump Media plans a one to one blockchain token
Speaker 1: rewards for shareholders. So Donald Trump continues his crypto endeavors here.
Speaker 1: Trump Media and Technology Group, operator of US President Donald
Speaker 1: Trump's Truth Social said Wednesday it plans to roll out
Speaker 1: a blockchain token for shareholders that entire them to perks
Speaker 1: and rewards. This is interesting. The DJT token will be
Speaker 1: launched in collaboration with Cryptoexchangecrypto dot com and the distribution
Speaker 1: to existing shareholders set at a one to one ratio
Speaker 1: or one token per share owned, according to announcement from
Speaker 1: the company, The token may include rewards and perks for
Speaker 1: DJT shareholders, including discounts on the Truth Social platform, the
Speaker 1: Truth Plus media streaming platform, and prediction market truth Predict. However,
Speaker 1: the token is not a tokenized stock and does not
Speaker 1: entitle holders to shareholder rights or acclaim on the company's
Speaker 1: future earnings. Trump Media confirmed to coin Telegraph. So the
Speaker 1: token showcases how blockchain technology can be paired with traditional
Speaker 1: acid classes to provide benefits to holders, but also highlights
Speaker 1: how tokenized equity products do not necessarily grant the same
Speaker 1: rights as ownership of the underlying asset. So, folks, let's
Speaker 1: peel back the onion here. There's many layers to it.
Speaker 1: On one hand, this is great. It shows adoption, It
Speaker 1: shows the power up blockchain and how that can be
Speaker 1: used in different ways and reward people for different activities
Speaker 1: as part of different ecosystems and so on and so forth.
Speaker 1: Right network effects playing out here. On the other hand,
Speaker 1: this is something I wish Donald Trump would stay away from.
Speaker 1: I'm not saying his kids can't be involved in crypto
Speaker 1: and do all these things, but the problem is it
Speaker 1: just muddies the water, especially as we're trying to get
Speaker 1: market structure pass and we know that Democrats are looking
Speaker 1: for anything to say, hey, we don't want to do
Speaker 1: this because it's gonna benefit Trump. So I wish Trump
Speaker 1: would hold off on these things. And you know, many
Speaker 1: of you know I'm not a fan of the meme coin,
Speaker 1: and you know I tell it like it is, guys.
Speaker 1: I don't hold back. I don't have a secret agenda.
Speaker 1: Just I'm gonna be real with you, guys. I wish
Speaker 1: even if it was a Democrat president or whoever, don't
Speaker 1: do stuff like this. This is not helpful, so I
Speaker 1: think it's just bad optics. But again, there's two sides
Speaker 1: to the coin. Again, I'm looking at it, it's like, wow,
Speaker 1: this is pretty amazing from an adoption standpoint. But on
Speaker 1: the other hand, come on, man, you're the president. We're
Speaker 1: trying to get crypto market structure passed here. We don't
Speaker 1: need further roadblocks and hiccups in the system. So that's
Speaker 1: my take on it. I don't know if you guys
Speaker 1: agree with me, but it just a lot of this
Speaker 1: is just bad optics. I don't think they're trying to
Speaker 1: do anything bad, but just the perception and the optics
Speaker 1: is just horrible. Right, So let's see hopefully this does
Speaker 1: not delay us further with that crypto market structure built.
Speaker 1: In addition, speaking of Trump, wallets tied to the Trump
Speaker 1: meme coin once again, which I'm not a fan of,
Speaker 1: the meme coin team pulled ninety four million dollars in
Speaker 1: us DC stable coin to coinbase in December, so some
Speaker 1: on chain data is showing some movement here. So on
Speaker 1: chain analysts tracking the official Trump meme coin on Solona
Speaker 1: have flagged large transfers from wallets labeled as parts of
Speaker 1: the official Trump Meme cluster, moving about ninety four million
Speaker 1: in USDC from the Trump Meme coin liquidity pools over
Speaker 1: the past month. The most recent movement, highlighted by blockchain
Speaker 1: data platform Arkham, involved thirty three million usd C being
Speaker 1: withdrawn from liquidity on Tuesday and sent to an entity
Speaker 1: labeled fire Blocks, which then routed funds to wallets labeled
Speaker 1: as belonging to coinbase. Public Salona records on soul Scan
Speaker 1: collaborate or corroborate the large USDC outflows from Trump link wallets.
Speaker 1: So again bad optics here. But again, you know, as
Speaker 1: I've said before, I believe Trump is a net positive. Right.
Speaker 1: Things have completely changed with the regulatory agencies, the SEC,
Speaker 1: specifically the CFDC as well and ending some of Operation
Speaker 1: Choke point two point zero, even though the banks are
Speaker 1: trying to do another version of it. But overall we
Speaker 1: are in a better environment. But you know, I'm hoping
Speaker 1: eventually all that leads in twenty twenty six to a
Speaker 1: massive bull market, because if it doesn't, then, you know,
Speaker 1: despite the clarity and the movement of legislation and the
Speaker 1: attack being you know, put to bed from a regulatory
Speaker 1: agencies the price is not there, and that would really suck.
Speaker 1: So let's hope, guys, things turn the corner in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty six. And I believe they will because markets are cyclical,
Speaker 1: and I believe that, you know, the liquidity cycle again
Speaker 1: disrupted by the terriff situation as well as even the
Speaker 1: government shut down, right, but I believe liquidity will start
Speaker 1: to flow back in and markets will start to move,
Speaker 1: And again I'm leading towards the probability of new all
Speaker 1: time highs in twenty twenty six. Okay, quick word from
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Speaker 1: in the description. Okay, look at this news. Digital id
Speaker 1: cbdc's risk turning us into a surveillance state, according to
Speaker 1: US representative Warren Davidson. Now, Warren Davidson has been a
Speaker 1: big champion for crypto for many years, going back to
Speaker 1: like twenty seventeen. Guys and I interviewed him. Even Ron
Speaker 1: Hammond who used to be a frequent guest on this
Speaker 1: podcast when he was at the Blockchain Association, was working
Speaker 1: with him to put legislation through. I remember they crafted
Speaker 1: the Token Taxonomy Act. That's how early they were, right
Speaker 1: before all of these things that are we're seeing this year.
Speaker 1: So I absolutely value his perspective on the markets. And
Speaker 1: you know he's highlighting that potentially the Genius Act, the
Speaker 1: Stable Cooint Bill, it could enable a wholesale version of
Speaker 1: a US dollars central back digital currency or a CBDC
Speaker 1: that could be used for surveillance, coercion, and control. He
Speaker 1: also fears a digital ID system will be rolled out
Speaker 1: that forces Americans to get government permission to use your
Speaker 1: own money. He says, do not be deceived. We need
Speaker 1: to reject this globalist surveillance state and return to the
Speaker 1: first principles. He added, reminding his followers that Bitcoin's original
Speaker 1: promise was less than about being an illiquid inflation hedge
Speaker 1: asset and more about being permissionless, peer to peer payment system. Now,
Speaker 1: one of the things I highlighted to you guys, I
Speaker 1: think within the past four weeks is that the anti
Speaker 1: CBDC bill, which was supposed to be passed with the
Speaker 1: Defense Act did not get included. That news is not
Speaker 1: making as much headlines as they should have. So, you know,
Speaker 1: that bill was put forth by guys like Tom emer
Speaker 1: and others. It didn't make it through, guys, doesn't mean
Speaker 1: it won't ever be passed, but that is a roadblock,
Speaker 1: and it looks like someone is trying to roadblock that.
Speaker 1: And it could be people that the Fed, you know,
Speaker 1: the banks and so forth. They want this, they want
Speaker 1: that wholesale CBDC. One of the things I've been highlighting
Speaker 1: to you guys, and is that what Chris John Carlow,
Speaker 1: who was you know, founder of the Digital Dollar Project,
Speaker 1: was telling us for years, and that is the same
Speaker 1: concerns people have about CBDCs they should also have about
Speaker 1: stable coins, because if the stable coins are being plugged
Speaker 1: in or owned by the banks, are plugged into the treasury,
Speaker 1: the same type of thing can be done, you know,
Speaker 1: with programmability and surveillance and so forth. So we got
Speaker 1: some work to do here, and we're gonna have to
Speaker 1: see how things develop. You know, could the anti CBDC
Speaker 1: bills still get passed in twenty twenty six, That's I'm
Speaker 1: gonna be asking people in DC. I'm going to be
Speaker 1: bringing more members of Congress on the podcasts to talk
Speaker 1: to them about this. I'll probably bring back Warren Davidson
Speaker 1: to talk about what the hell is going on here.
Speaker 1: So even Representative Marjorie Marjorie Taylor Green said she voted
Speaker 1: no to the Genius Act, arguing it hands powers over
Speaker 1: to the banks while up opening a backdoor for a CBDC.
Speaker 1: So we're gonna have to see how things play out here, guys,
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna try to get some answers for you all.
Speaker 1: But this is something to keep an eye on because
Speaker 1: we know the banks are lobbying hard right now to
Speaker 1: change things in the Genius Act. They don't like that
Speaker 1: you're getting yield of course on crypto exchanges like uphold
Speaker 1: and coinbase, and you can earn a higher rate of
Speaker 1: return on staking stable con yield versus what they're giving
Speaker 1: you in your checking or savings accounts. Right, So we
Speaker 1: got to watch this closely. Now, speaking of cbdc's, look
Speaker 1: at this. India's Central Bank urges countries to prioritize CBDCs
Speaker 1: over stable coins. So we got to be vigilant here, folks.
Speaker 1: We got to be vigilant. Look, I live in the US,
Speaker 1: so I can only speak for the US. You know,
Speaker 1: those of you listening across the world, you got to
Speaker 1: watch out for this right. And some of you may
Speaker 1: not care, but you know, personally, I do. And I
Speaker 1: think about my daughter as well, you know, as she
Speaker 1: grows up and what role she is going to be in.
Speaker 1: So I think we've got to fight to make sure
Speaker 1: our rights are not trampled on. So I think we're
Speaker 1: going to see a lot of different central banks push
Speaker 1: for CBDCs. It looks like the CBDC movement is building
Speaker 1: momentum again. So the Reserve Bank of India has urged
Speaker 1: countries to focus on central bank digital currencies over privately
Speaker 1: issued stable coins, citing concerns about financial stability. In its
Speaker 1: December Financial Stability Report release on Wednesday, the RBI argue
Speaker 1: this that CBDCs preserved the single ness of money and
Speaker 1: the integrity of the financial system and should remain as
Speaker 1: the ultimate settlement asset and the anchor for trust in money.
Speaker 1: And one of the things the article gives context on
Speaker 1: is that so far, the CBDCs that have been successfully
Speaker 1: launched around the world includes Nigeria, Bahamas, and Jamaica. But
Speaker 1: China will argue China's CBDC, the digital Yuwan, that one
Speaker 1: is pretty big and they're trying to you know, do
Speaker 1: loans and interest on that now. So we got to
Speaker 1: watch out, guys, the movement that was happening, you know,
Speaker 1: years ago. If people like, yeah, that's it, we're not
Speaker 1: going to have a CBDC here, and we're going to
Speaker 1: put up this ebed starting to pop up again. So
Speaker 1: I will continue to bring folks on the podcast to
Speaker 1: talk to them about it, and we can monitor this accordingly.
Speaker 1: All right, folks, that's the news. Let me know what
Speaker 1: you think. Leave your thoughts and comments below, hit the
Speaker 1: thumbs up button. Be sure to support the podcast by
Speaker 1: subscribing to my free email newsletter. I'll be doing a
Speaker 1: full write up on Friday, so you don't want to
Speaker 1: miss that write up. Check out my book on Amazon's
Speaker 1: available in paperback and digital. Grab a copy and check
Speaker 1: out my course at Mycrypto course dot com. Folks, thank
Speaker 1: you for tuning in, wishing you all a happy new year.
Speaker 1: It's probably the new year already for many of you
Speaker 1: watching and listening and wishing you a happy, healthy and
Speaker 1: prosperous year for you and your family, and you know,
Speaker 1: maybe you have good fortune, and then made the markets
Speaker 1: bring us some new higher highs and higher prices and
Speaker 1: a blow off top and we make some really nice returns.
Speaker 1: Or folks, I'll catch you on the next one.