WEBVTT

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to Bedtime Astronomy. Explore the wonders of the cosmos

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<v Speaker 1>with our soothing Bedtime Astronomie podcast. Each episode offers a

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<v Speaker 1>gentle journey through the stars, planets, and beyond, perfect for

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<v Speaker 1>unwinding after a long day. Let's travel through the mysteries

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<v Speaker 1>of the universe as you drift off into a peaceful

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<v Speaker 1>slumber under the night sky.

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<v Speaker 2>I want you to close your eyes for a second.

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<v Speaker 2>We're going to do something a little dark to start

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<v Speaker 2>things off today.

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<v Speaker 3>Oh I'm intrigued.

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<v Speaker 2>I want you to imagine the absolute worst case scenario.

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<v Speaker 2>And I'm not talking about a stock market crash or

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<v Speaker 2>a hurricane, or even a zombie apocalypse. I'm talking about

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<v Speaker 2>the ultimate cosmic end game, the big one, the death

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<v Speaker 2>of a solar system.

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<v Speaker 3>It is a scale of destruction that is genuinely hard

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<v Speaker 3>for the human mind to process. I mean, we are

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<v Speaker 3>talking about physics on a scale that makes our most

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<v Speaker 3>powerful nuclear weapons look like tiny firecrackers popping in the

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<v Speaker 3>distance exactly.

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<v Speaker 2>And I think when most people picture this the end

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<v Speaker 2>of the world or the end of a star system,

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<v Speaker 2>they think of science chittus.

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<v Speaker 3>A death star.

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<v Speaker 2>You think of the death star, right it's a giant

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<v Speaker 2>laser beam, a sudden green flash and explosion and boom,

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<v Speaker 2>the planet has gone instant darkness. But the reality, the

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<v Speaker 2>actual science of it, is actually much slower and much

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<v Speaker 2>more insidious, and honestly, it is a lot scarier.

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<v Speaker 3>It is not an explosion.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a suffocation.

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<v Speaker 3>That is a very very apt way to put it.

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<v Speaker 3>It's the slow, inevitable swelling of a star, the transition

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<v Speaker 3>to the red giant phase.

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<v Speaker 2>The red giant just the name sounds menacing. Picture of

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<v Speaker 2>star are maybe running out of fuel. It gets angry,

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<v Speaker 2>It starts expanding outward like a balloon being overinflated. It

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<v Speaker 2>swallows everything in its path. Mercury gone, Venus toast toast.

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<v Speaker 2>Earth will get to Earth later. And it's not a

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<v Speaker 2>pretty picture. But for a long time, the assumption in

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<v Speaker 2>astronomy was that this is basically a death sentence for

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<v Speaker 2>the entire neighborhood. If your star goes red giant, it's

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<v Speaker 2>game over.

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<v Speaker 3>That has been the prevailing wisdom for decades. When a

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<v Speaker 3>star sheds its outer layers and swells up, the gravitational

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<v Speaker 3>and thermal forces are so extreme that we generally assume

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<v Speaker 3>planetary systems are wiped clean.

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<v Speaker 2>The slate is wipe blank exactly.

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<v Speaker 3>The star expands, consumes the inner planets, destabilizes the outer ones,

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<v Speaker 3>and leaves nothing but dust.

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<v Speaker 2>But and this is why we are here today. There's

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<v Speaker 2>a twist, you plot twist in the story of stellar death.

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<v Speaker 2>H It turns out not everyone dies. There are survivors,

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<v Speaker 2>party survivors, and that is the mystery we are unpacking today.

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<v Speaker 2>How do you survive being swallowed or scorched by your

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<v Speaker 2>own son? And more importantly, who are these survivors? Because

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<v Speaker 2>we have some brand new informations literally hot off the breast,

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<v Speaker 2>that changes how we look at this.

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<v Speaker 3>It really is brand new. I mean we are looking

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<v Speaker 3>into data that came out essentially yesterday, February fourth, twenty

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<v Speaker 3>twenty six.

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<v Speaker 2>It doesn't get fresher than that. Yeah, So what are

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<v Speaker 2>we looking at? What's the source?

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<v Speaker 3>This is a new study published in Astronomy and Astrophysics

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<v Speaker 3>and it's currently making waves on the ARCSIV server. The

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<v Speaker 3>title is predicted incidents of Jupiter like planets around white dwarfs.

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<v Speaker 2>Predicted incidents. It's very polite.

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<v Speaker 3>Academic titles always hide at the drama, don't they. But

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<v Speaker 3>the lead author is alex Mars Soriano from the DEPARTMENTA

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<v Speaker 3>of Phisica at the University DoD Technica Federico Santa Maria

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<v Speaker 3>in Valpariso, Chile, Okay. And what they have done is fascinating.

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<v Speaker 3>They haven't just looked for these planets with a telescope,

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<v Speaker 3>They've built a comprehensive simulation of the Milky Way to

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<v Speaker 3>predict them.

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<v Speaker 2>So our mission today is to look at this census

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<v Speaker 2>of the survivors. We want to know, out of all

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<v Speaker 2>the planets that face this fiery apocalypse, how many actually

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<v Speaker 2>make it through to the other side.

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<v Speaker 3>And we aren't just looking at pretty pictures of space here,

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<v Speaker 3>we are digging into the physics. Yeah, we need to

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<v Speaker 3>figure out exactly how rare these survivor planets are. Are

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<v Speaker 3>they one in a million, one in ten?

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<v Speaker 2>Right? And why does one planet survive while its neighbor

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<v Speaker 2>gets completely vaporized?

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<v Speaker 3>And here is the So what for you listening right now?

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<v Speaker 3>This isn't just about some distant star light years away.

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<v Speaker 3>This is a preview.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a trailer.

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<v Speaker 3>It's a trailer for the future of our own Solar system.

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<v Speaker 3>We are basically looking at the fate of Jupiter and Saturn.

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<v Speaker 2>That is exactly right. By studying these distant systems, we

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<v Speaker 2>are essentially looking into a crystal ball for our own neighborhood.

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<v Speaker 2>We're seeing our own future played out on a galactic stage.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, future, that's about what five six billion years away,

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<v Speaker 3>But still it's written in the stars.

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<v Speaker 2>So let's unpack this. Before we get to the survivors.

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<v Speaker 2>We have to understand the killer. We need to talk

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<v Speaker 2>about the mechanism of destruction. Why is survival so incredibly hard?

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<v Speaker 3>To understand the destruction, you have to understand the life

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<v Speaker 3>cycle of a star. Most stars, like our Sun, spend

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<v Speaker 3>the vast majority of their lives in what we call

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<v Speaker 3>the main sequence.

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<v Speaker 2>That's the happy, stable time, the prime of life.

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<v Speaker 3>Correct, it's burning hydro into helium in its core. It's stable.

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<v Speaker 3>Gravity is pulling in trying to crush the star, but

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<v Speaker 3>the energy from fusion is pushing out, and everything is

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<v Speaker 3>in a perfect hydrostatic balance, a standoff. It's a standoff

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<v Speaker 3>between two tightened forces, and as long as there is fuel,

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<v Speaker 3>the standoff holds. But eventually the hydrogen runs.

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<v Speaker 2>Out, the fuel tank gets empty, and when the gas

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<v Speaker 2>tank is empty in a car, the car stops.

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<v Speaker 3>Right in a car, Yes, in a star, it's the opposite.

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<v Speaker 3>When the fuel runs out in the core, the engine

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<v Speaker 3>goes haywire. Core starts to collapse because there's no outward

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<v Speaker 3>pressure to hold it up to more. But as the

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<v Speaker 3>core collapses, it gets hotter, much much hotter. This new

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<v Speaker 3>intense heat pushes the outer layers of the star away, so.

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<v Speaker 2>The outer parts stop listening to gravity.

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<v Speaker 3>They stop listening to gravity, they start to expand drastically.

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<v Speaker 3>The star transitions from a main sequence star into a

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<v Speaker 3>red giant.

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<v Speaker 2>I always like the analogy of a marshmallow in a microwave.

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<v Speaker 3>That is surprisingly accurate.

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<v Speaker 2>Go on, you know what I mean. You put a

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<v Speaker 2>regular hence marshmallow and you hit start. It heats up

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<v Speaker 2>from the inside and it just starts expanding. It gets huge,

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<v Speaker 2>it gets fluffy, It takes up the whole microwave.

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<v Speaker 3>But unlike a marshmallow, which is delicious.

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<v Speaker 2>A red giant is incredibly dangerous. If you are orbiting nearby.

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<v Speaker 3>It is lethal. The radius of the star can increase

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<v Speaker 3>by a factor of one hundred or even more. Our

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<v Speaker 3>Sun will swell up to roughly the orbit of Earth.

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<v Speaker 3>It physically takes up more space and This leads to

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<v Speaker 3>the three ways a planet can die, the three.

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<v Speaker 2>Methods of execution. Let's go through them, because this really

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<v Speaker 2>sets the stakes. It's not just one thing that kills you.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a triple threat.

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<v Speaker 3>The first and most obvious is engulfment, which is just

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<v Speaker 3>what it sounds like. It's exactly what it sounds like.

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<v Speaker 3>The star physically expands past the planet's orbit. The planet

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<v Speaker 3>literally flies inside the star's atmosphere, and.

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<v Speaker 2>Space is a vacuum, so there's usually no friction. But

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<v Speaker 2>inside a star, that's a different story.

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<v Speaker 3>It's a very different story. It's gas. It's thick. The

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<v Speaker 3>friction from the gas the drag. It slows the planet down,

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<v Speaker 3>it loses orbital speed, spirals into the core, and is obliterated. Wow,

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<v Speaker 3>this is the likely fate of mercury and venus in

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<v Speaker 3>our own system. They will simply be swallowed whole.

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<v Speaker 2>And possibly Earth. But we'll pinachaotic maybe on that for now.

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<v Speaker 2>So that's engulfment being eaten alive. What's the second way

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<v Speaker 2>to die?

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<v Speaker 3>Tidal forces? This one is a bit more subtle, but

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<v Speaker 3>just as.

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<v Speaker 2>Destructive, like the tides of the ocean.

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<v Speaker 3>Same principle, but on a mind boggling scale. As the

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<v Speaker 3>star loses mass because it's puffing out these layers into space,

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<v Speaker 3>it's gravity changes. But also because the star is so

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<v Speaker 3>huge and you're so close, the gravitational pull on the

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<v Speaker 3>side of the planet facing the star is much stronger than.

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<v Speaker 2>The pole on the far side, so it gets stretched.

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<v Speaker 3>Ripped apart. Really, we call this spaghettification when we talk

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<v Speaker 3>about black holes, but a similar thing happens here. These

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<v Speaker 3>intense gravitational poles can physically disassemble a planet before it

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<v Speaker 3>even gets engulfed.

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<v Speaker 2>It just crumbles under the stress.

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<v Speaker 3>The planet's own gravity isn't strong enough to hold it

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<v Speaker 3>together against the pull of the star. It's like pulling

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<v Speaker 3>a piece of bread apart.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, so you can be eaten or you can be

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<v Speaker 2>ripped to shreds. Not great options.

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<v Speaker 3>And the third vaporization, the transition from a main sequence

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<v Speaker 3>star to a red giant involves intense heat spikes. The luminosity,

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<v Speaker 3>the brightness of the star skyrockets, so it's not just bigger,

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<v Speaker 3>it's also hotter incredibly, so the radiation can be so

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<v Speaker 3>intense that it boils the planet away. It strips the atmosphere,

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<v Speaker 3>then boils the oceans and melts the rock. It's like

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<v Speaker 3>holding a candle to an ice cube, but the candle

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<v Speaker 3>is a star and the ice cube is a planet.

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<v Speaker 2>So it's a gauntlet you have to dodge being eaten,

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<v Speaker 2>being torn apart, and being.

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<v Speaker 3>Boiled precisely, And if a planet manages to survive all

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<v Speaker 3>of that, if it survives the red giant phase, the

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<v Speaker 3>star eventually sheds all those outer pucky layers.

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<v Speaker 2>Where do they go?

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<v Speaker 3>They drift away into space, creating what we call a

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<v Speaker 3>planetary nebula, which ironically is often beautiful to look at.

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<v Speaker 2>I've seen pictures. They're gorgeous, but it's really a stellar graveyard.

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<v Speaker 3>It is, and what is left behind is the core,

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<v Speaker 3>a dense, hot, tiny remnant called.

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<v Speaker 2>A white dwarf, the corpse of the star.

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<v Speaker 3>A very hot corpse, but yes, about the size of Earth,

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<v Speaker 3>but with the mass of the Sun, incredibly dense. A

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<v Speaker 3>teaspoon of it would weigh tons.

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<v Speaker 2>So if we look up at the sky with our

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<v Speaker 2>telescopes and we see a white dwarf and we see

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<v Speaker 2>a planet orbiting it, that planet is a veteran.

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<v Speaker 3>It is a survivor of a stellar war. It witnessed

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<v Speaker 3>the expansion. It survived the tides, it endured the heat,

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<v Speaker 3>and it is still standing. It has a story to tell.

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<v Speaker 2>That makes them incredibly special. It means they have a

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<v Speaker 2>story to tell. But for a long time, we didn't

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<v Speaker 2>know if any planets actually could survive this. It was

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<v Speaker 2>all theoretical math on a chalkboard exactly.

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<v Speaker 3>We had the models, but we didn't have the proof,

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<v Speaker 3>so we were just guessing. We were guessing until about

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<v Speaker 3>fifteen years ago. We hoped they existed, but we hadn't

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<v Speaker 3>seen one. We weren't sure it was even possible.

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<v Speaker 2>But then we found evidence, and this takes us to

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<v Speaker 2>the second part of our journey. Today we know they exist.

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<v Speaker 2>This isn't just math anymore.

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<v Speaker 3>No, we have direct observations. The first major clue came

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<v Speaker 3>back in twenty eleven.

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<v Speaker 2>Take us back to twenty eleven. What did they find?

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<v Speaker 3>Astronomers discovered an exoplanet orbiting a white dwarf. It was massive,

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<v Speaker 3>about eight times the mass of Jupiter.

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<v Speaker 2>That is a beast of a planet that's bordering on

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<v Speaker 2>a brown dwarf. Isn't it one of those failed stars?

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<v Speaker 3>It's getting there but still classified as a planet. But

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<v Speaker 3>the key detail wasn't its size, it was its location.

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<v Speaker 3>It was orbiting at a distance of about twenty five

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<v Speaker 3>hundred astronomical units AU.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, let's put that in respective for everyone. One AU

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<v Speaker 2>is the distance from the Earth to the Sun. That's

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<v Speaker 2>our yardstick. Jupiter is about five AU out right.

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<v Speaker 3>And Pluto, which we all think of as being way

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<v Speaker 3>out there, is about forty AU on average.

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<v Speaker 2>And the voyager probes the furthest things humans have ever

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<v Speaker 2>sent are only about one hundred and fifty to one

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<v Speaker 2>hundred and sixty AU out right now, and they've been

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<v Speaker 2>traveling for decades.

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<v Speaker 3>So this thing at twenty five hundred AU was way

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<v Speaker 3>way out there.

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<v Speaker 2>That is lonely. That is deep deep space, that is

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<v Speaker 2>practically in the interstellar void.

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<v Speaker 3>It is incredibly far, but that distance is exactly why

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<v Speaker 3>it survived. We call this survival tactic the distant observer

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<v Speaker 3>self explanatory. It was simply too far away to be

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<v Speaker 3>touched by the Red Giant's expansion. The star swelled up,

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<v Speaker 3>but the planet was sitting way back in the cheap

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<v Speaker 3>seats watching the fireworks, completely safe.

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<v Speaker 2>So the strategy there is simple avoidance. Just be really

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<v Speaker 2>really far away.

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<v Speaker 3>Exactly. It's the safest bet. If you aren't near the explosion,

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<v Speaker 3>you don't get hurt. Problem solved.

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<v Speaker 2>But then in twenty twenty we got a second clue

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<v Speaker 2>that really complicated the picture.

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<v Speaker 3>The plot thickens because nature is never that simple.

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<v Speaker 2>Never what happened in twenty twenty.

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<v Speaker 3>Astronomers found another Jupiter sized gas giant around a white dwarf.

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<v Speaker 3>But this one was orbiting very close to the star.

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<v Speaker 2>How close are we talking?

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<v Speaker 3>Close enough that it completes an orbit in just a

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<v Speaker 3>few days, not years. It was hugging the star well

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<v Speaker 3>well within where Mercury's orbit would be in our Solar system.

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<v Speaker 2>Wait, hang on, if it's that close, it should have

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<v Speaker 2>been eaten. We just established that when the star was

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<v Speaker 2>a red giant, it would have expanded way past that orbit,

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<v Speaker 2>way past it should be inside the star's stomach, effectively exactly.

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<v Speaker 2>That is the puzzle. It could not have survived the

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<v Speaker 2>red giant phase at its current distance. It would have

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<v Speaker 2>been engulfed and destroyed instantly, no question. So how is

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<v Speaker 2>it there? Is it a ghost planet? Did it form afterwards?

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<v Speaker 2>Like a phoenix rising from the ashes?

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<v Speaker 3>Unlikely to form afterwards? There isn't usually enough material left

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<v Speaker 3>in the disk around a white dwarf to build a giant.

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<v Speaker 2>Planet from scratch, it was the theory.

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<v Speaker 3>The leading theory is that this planet is the migrator.

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<v Speaker 3>It didn't start there. It survived the red giant phase

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<v Speaker 3>by being further out, maybe in that safe zone we

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<v Speaker 3>talked about beyond a few au Okay.

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<v Speaker 2>So as a distant observer at first.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, But then after the star shrank down into a

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<v Speaker 3>white dwarf and things calmed down, something caused the planet

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<v Speaker 3>to spiral inward.

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<v Speaker 2>So it moved into the empty house after the fire

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<v Speaker 2>was put out.

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<v Speaker 3>That's a great way to put it. It survived the

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<v Speaker 3>danger zone, then migrated in later. Usually this happens because

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<v Speaker 3>of scattering. Maybe another massive planet in the system gave

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<v Speaker 3>it a gravitational kick, or the disc of debris left

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<v Speaker 3>over from the star's death dragged it in.

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<v Speaker 2>So we have two pathways to survival. Pathway one the

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<v Speaker 2>distant observer stay far away and don't move. Pathway two

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<v Speaker 2>the migrator stay far away during the danger, then move

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<v Speaker 2>in close when it's safe.

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<v Speaker 3>Those seem to be the two main options. If you

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<v Speaker 3>stay close and don't move, you die.

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<v Speaker 2>Simple rules for a complicated universe. But here's the problem,

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<v Speaker 2>and this leads us right into the new research from

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<v Speaker 2>Max Soriano. We found these two examples, right, A couple

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<v Speaker 2>others maybe, but we haven't found many.

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<v Speaker 3>That is the issue. We have found thousands of exoplanets

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<v Speaker 3>around normal stars, thousands, we find them everywhere we look.

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<v Speaker 3>But planets around white dwarfs we have a literal handful.

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<v Speaker 2>So the question is are they missing because they are rare,

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<v Speaker 2>or are they missing because we just aren't good at

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<v Speaker 2>seeing them.

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<v Speaker 3>This is the classic servational bias problem in astronomy. It's

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<v Speaker 3>a huge question.

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<v Speaker 2>Maybe they're there, but we just can't spot them.

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<v Speaker 3>It's possible white dorks are dim. Planets are dim. Maybe

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<v Speaker 3>the glare from the white dwarf, even though it's faint,

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<v Speaker 3>hides them. Maybe we just haven't looked at enough of

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<v Speaker 3>them for long enough. It's like looking for a needle

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<v Speaker 3>in a haystack, but we aren't sure if we're even

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<v Speaker 3>holding a magnet.

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<v Speaker 2>And this is where Max Soriano and the team from

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<v Speaker 2>Chili come in. They decided to stop guessing and start simulating.

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<v Speaker 3>Right. Instead of just relying on our limited telescope data,

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<v Speaker 3>they used stellar evolution codes. They essentially built a physics

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<v Speaker 3>engine of the Milky Way.

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<v Speaker 2>I love when scientists do this. We can't find it,

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<v Speaker 2>so let's build a universe where we can calculate it.

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<v Speaker 2>It's like playing some city, but with solar systems.

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<v Speaker 3>It's an incredibly powerful tool. They factored in everything mass

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<v Speaker 3>loss from the star, how gravity changes, the tidal forces,

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<v Speaker 3>which we'll get to, the metallic makeup of stars. They

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<v Speaker 3>ran the numbers to predict how many of these survivors

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<v Speaker 3>should exist.

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<v Speaker 2>So they're not observing, therefore casting exactly.

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<v Speaker 3>They simulated the entire life cycle from birth to death

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<v Speaker 3>for millions of scenarios to see what the end result

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<v Speaker 3>should be, and they.

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<v Speaker 2>Came back with a number, a specific percentage of white

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<v Speaker 2>dwarfs that should have a Jupiter like survivor orbiting them.

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<v Speaker 3>They did, and that number is less than three percent.

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<v Speaker 2>Wow, less than three percent. Yes, that means for every

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<v Speaker 2>one hundred dead stars you look at, ninety seven of

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<v Speaker 2>them are alone or at least they don't have a

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<v Speaker 2>gas giant survivor.

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<v Speaker 3>It is a massacre out there. The vast, vast majority

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<v Speaker 3>of planets do not make it.

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<v Speaker 2>That feels incredibly low. I mean, we look at our

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<v Speaker 2>Solar System. We see Jupiter and Saturna. They seem so

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<v Speaker 2>big and permanent. We think of them as the kings

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<v Speaker 2>of the Solar System. We assume they are invincible. But

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<v Speaker 2>you're saying, in the grand scheme of stellar evolution, keeping

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<v Speaker 2>a planet like that is a rarity.

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<v Speaker 3>It is. The transition to a white dwarf is a chaotic,

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<v Speaker 3>violent event. It cleans house. Now there is a small

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<v Speaker 3>caveat the researchers point out, which is important. If we

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<v Speaker 3>look at what they call the local age metallicity relation,

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<v Speaker 3>basically stars that are similar to our Sun and in

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<v Speaker 3>our local neighborhood of the galaxy, that number might creep

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<v Speaker 3>up to roughly eight percent.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, eight percent is better than three percent, but it's

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<v Speaker 2>still single digits. It's still a tiny minority.

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<v Speaker 3>Absolutely. It implies that a white dwarf with a planet

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<v Speaker 3>is the exception, not the rule. The default state for

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<v Speaker 3>a dead star is loneliness.

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<v Speaker 2>And another thing that study noted, ninety five percent of

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<v Speaker 2>these survivors are gas giants like Jupiter, not brown dwarfs.

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<v Speaker 3>That's an important distinction. Brown dwarfs are these failed stars.

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<v Speaker 3>They are heavier than planets anywhere from thirteen to eighty

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<v Speaker 3>times the mass of Jupiter, but not heavy enough to

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<v Speaker 3>ignite fusion in their cores.

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<v Speaker 2>You would think being heavier and tougher they would survive better.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, logic would suggest the biggest kid on the playground

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<v Speaker 3>doesn't get pushed around. If you're heavier, you should be

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00:16:50.919 --> 00:16:53.759
<v Speaker 3>harder to push into the star. Right, more inertia, you'd think,

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<v Speaker 3>But the simulation shows that planets seem to survive better

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<v Speaker 3>than brown dwarfs in this specific context. It's a nuanced

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<v Speaker 3>interplay of a few things.

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<v Speaker 2>Like what well.

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00:17:02.159 --> 00:17:04.599
<v Speaker 3>First, Brown corps are rare to begin with compared to

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<v Speaker 3>gas giants, but more importantly, they interact with tides differently.

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<v Speaker 3>They raise much stronger tides on the star because they.

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<v Speaker 2>Are so massive ah, and stronger tides create more.

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<v Speaker 3>Drag exactly, more drag which pulls them in faster. So

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<v Speaker 3>being big can actually be a disadvantage here. You're too

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<v Speaker 3>good at slowing yourself down and spiraling to your doom.

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<v Speaker 2>So if you want to survive the apocalypse, be a

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<v Speaker 2>gas giant, don't be a brown dwarf, and definitely don't

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<v Speaker 2>be a rocky planet like Earth.

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<v Speaker 3>Correct, Rocky planets are usually too close, they get swallowed.

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<v Speaker 3>Being small and close is a death sentence.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, so we know it's rare, we know it's dangerous.

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<v Speaker 2>But let's dig into the survivor's handbook. Because even though

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<v Speaker 2>only three percent make it, some do make it. Who

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<v Speaker 2>are they? What makes them special? The paper breaks this

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<v Speaker 2>down into specific factors they did.

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<v Speaker 3>They identified several key factors. Think of this as the

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<v Speaker 3>checklist for survival. If you are a planet and you

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<v Speaker 3>want to live, you need to check these boxes.

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00:18:01.119 --> 00:18:03.279
<v Speaker 2>Factor're number one, the parent stars mass.

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<v Speaker 3>This is crucial. It turns out there's a Goldilock zone

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00:18:06.279 --> 00:18:08.759
<v Speaker 3>for the star itself. Not too hot, not too cold,

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00:18:08.920 --> 00:18:10.160
<v Speaker 3>not too big, not too small.

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00:18:10.240 --> 00:18:10.559
<v Speaker 2>Okay.

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00:18:10.640 --> 00:18:13.440
<v Speaker 3>Survival peaks when the resulting white dwarf ends up being

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<v Speaker 3>between point five to three and point sixty six solar masses.

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00:18:16.839 --> 00:18:20.279
<v Speaker 2>Okay, those are numbers. Translate that. What does that mean

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00:18:20.319 --> 00:18:22.799
<v Speaker 2>for the star before it died, when it was in

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00:18:22.839 --> 00:18:23.359
<v Speaker 2>its prime.

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00:18:23.599 --> 00:18:27.200
<v Speaker 3>It corresponds to a progenitor, the original star having a

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00:18:27.240 --> 00:18:29.319
<v Speaker 3>mass of about one to three times the mass of

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00:18:29.319 --> 00:18:29.720
<v Speaker 3>our sun.

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00:18:29.920 --> 00:18:31.920
<v Speaker 2>So you don't want a star that was too huge

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00:18:31.920 --> 00:18:32.839
<v Speaker 2>to begin with, right.

400
00:18:33.079 --> 00:18:36.200
<v Speaker 3>If the star is really massive, say eight or ten

401
00:18:36.319 --> 00:18:39.400
<v Speaker 3>solar masses. It doesn't go out with a whimper. It

402
00:18:39.440 --> 00:18:40.480
<v Speaker 3>goes out with a bang.

403
00:18:40.680 --> 00:18:41.480
<v Speaker 2>It goes supernova.

404
00:18:41.759 --> 00:18:44.839
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and nobody survives as supernova nearby. That's just a bomb.

405
00:18:44.880 --> 00:18:46.519
<v Speaker 3>It sterilizes the entire system.

406
00:18:46.680 --> 00:18:46.799
<v Speaker 2>Right.

407
00:18:47.160 --> 00:18:49.559
<v Speaker 3>But if the star is too small, like a red dwarf,

408
00:18:49.599 --> 00:18:52.759
<v Speaker 3>it takes trillions of years to evolve. The universe isn't

409
00:18:52.799 --> 00:18:55.319
<v Speaker 3>old enough for those to have turned into white dwarfs yet.

410
00:18:55.359 --> 00:18:57.160
<v Speaker 3>So you need a star like the Sun or a

411
00:18:57.240 --> 00:18:59.680
<v Speaker 3>bit bigger. That is the sweet spot for creating a

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00:18:59.680 --> 00:19:02.279
<v Speaker 3>white that might still have a planet. You need a

413
00:19:02.319 --> 00:19:04.440
<v Speaker 3>star that lives a normal life span and dies a

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00:19:04.480 --> 00:19:05.799
<v Speaker 3>relatively gentle death.

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00:19:06.000 --> 00:19:08.599
<v Speaker 2>Okay, so fac to one pick a medium sized star

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00:19:09.200 --> 00:19:12.839
<v Speaker 2>like ours, good start for us. Factor two the age

417
00:19:12.839 --> 00:19:13.519
<v Speaker 2>of the system.

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00:19:13.680 --> 00:19:16.400
<v Speaker 3>This was interesting. They found that younger systems, those between

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00:19:16.519 --> 00:19:19.680
<v Speaker 3>one and six billion years old, have higher survival rates.

420
00:19:19.799 --> 00:19:22.039
<v Speaker 3>They are above that three percent baseline.

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00:19:22.160 --> 00:19:24.480
<v Speaker 2>Wait, how can a young system have a dead star?

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00:19:24.920 --> 00:19:28.160
<v Speaker 2>That sounds contradictory. If it's young, shouldn't the star still

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00:19:28.200 --> 00:19:28.680
<v Speaker 2>be burning?

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00:19:28.839 --> 00:19:32.799
<v Speaker 3>Young is relative in astronomy. A more massive star, say

425
00:19:32.880 --> 00:19:36.799
<v Speaker 3>three solar masses, burns through its fuel much faster. It

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00:19:36.799 --> 00:19:37.759
<v Speaker 3>guzzles gas.

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00:19:38.000 --> 00:19:39.920
<v Speaker 2>It lives fast and dies young exactly.

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00:19:40.000 --> 00:19:41.680
<v Speaker 3>So you can have a system that is only two

429
00:19:41.720 --> 00:19:44.880
<v Speaker 3>billion years old. But the star was big, so it

430
00:19:44.920 --> 00:19:47.279
<v Speaker 3>burned through its fuel and a flash went through its

431
00:19:47.319 --> 00:19:50.559
<v Speaker 3>red giant phase, died and became a white dwarf.

432
00:19:50.839 --> 00:19:53.000
<v Speaker 2>I see. So the system itself is young, even if

433
00:19:53.039 --> 00:19:54.119
<v Speaker 2>its star is already dead.

434
00:19:54.319 --> 00:19:57.279
<v Speaker 3>Correct. And the study suggests that in these younger old

435
00:19:57.359 --> 00:19:59.319
<v Speaker 3>systems more planets survive.

436
00:19:59.480 --> 00:20:01.880
<v Speaker 2>Why why does age hurt survival?

437
00:20:02.160 --> 00:20:04.480
<v Speaker 3>Well, the paper doesn't say for certain, but we can

438
00:20:04.480 --> 00:20:09.000
<v Speaker 3>speculate maybe in much older systems ten twelve billion years old,

439
00:20:09.240 --> 00:20:12.960
<v Speaker 3>there's just been more time for things to go wrong. Entropy, chaos,

440
00:20:13.319 --> 00:20:17.000
<v Speaker 3>orbits destabilize over eons, Other stars pass by in the galaxy,

441
00:20:17.000 --> 00:20:19.880
<v Speaker 3>and their gravity can nudge things around. The longer you

442
00:20:19.920 --> 00:20:22.240
<v Speaker 3>hang around, the more likely you are to get kicked

443
00:20:22.240 --> 00:20:24.240
<v Speaker 3>out of the system or crash into something else. It's

444
00:20:24.319 --> 00:20:25.480
<v Speaker 3>dynamic instability.

445
00:20:25.599 --> 00:20:28.359
<v Speaker 2>Given enough time, gravity finds a way to ruin your day.

446
00:20:28.519 --> 00:20:29.519
<v Speaker 3>That's a good way of putting it.

447
00:20:29.680 --> 00:20:32.920
<v Speaker 2>So speed matters. Get the apocalypse over with quickly if

448
00:20:32.960 --> 00:20:34.119
<v Speaker 2>you want to keep your planets.

449
00:20:34.200 --> 00:20:35.799
<v Speaker 3>In a manner of speaking, Yes.

450
00:20:35.599 --> 00:20:38.640
<v Speaker 2>All right. Factor three. This one seems obvious, but we

451
00:20:38.680 --> 00:20:43.119
<v Speaker 2>need the numbers orbital separation the safe zone.

452
00:20:43.400 --> 00:20:46.279
<v Speaker 3>The data is very clear here. Surviving companions are usually

453
00:20:46.279 --> 00:20:48.319
<v Speaker 3>found between three and twenty four AU.

454
00:20:48.519 --> 00:20:51.200
<v Speaker 2>Let's context that again, Jupiter is at five AU.

455
00:20:51.480 --> 00:20:53.519
<v Speaker 3>So Jupiter is right at the inner edge of this

456
00:20:53.640 --> 00:20:54.440
<v Speaker 3>survival belt.

457
00:20:54.799 --> 00:20:57.680
<v Speaker 2>That makes me nervous for Jupiter, it's barely safe. It's

458
00:20:57.720 --> 00:20:59.160
<v Speaker 2>standing right next to the fire exit.

459
00:20:59.240 --> 00:21:01.640
<v Speaker 3>It is on the edge. But three AU seems to

460
00:21:01.640 --> 00:21:04.839
<v Speaker 3>be the cutoff. Anything closer than three AU usually gets

461
00:21:04.839 --> 00:21:06.599
<v Speaker 3>swallowed by the red giant expansion.

462
00:21:07.160 --> 00:21:09.799
<v Speaker 2>And what about the outer edge twenty four AU. What

463
00:21:09.880 --> 00:21:10.759
<v Speaker 2>happens beyond that?

464
00:21:11.039 --> 00:21:13.559
<v Speaker 3>Well, anything further out than twenty four AU is safer

465
00:21:13.559 --> 00:21:16.079
<v Speaker 3>from the expansion for sure, but it might be less

466
00:21:16.079 --> 00:21:18.720
<v Speaker 3>common just due to how planets form in the first place.

467
00:21:19.119 --> 00:21:22.000
<v Speaker 3>You don't get as many giant planets forming way way

468
00:21:22.039 --> 00:21:24.799
<v Speaker 3>out there in the protoplanetary disk. The gas and dust

469
00:21:24.799 --> 00:21:26.599
<v Speaker 3>are too thin to clump together efficiently.

470
00:21:27.000 --> 00:21:29.400
<v Speaker 2>So the survival belt is three to twenty four AU.

471
00:21:29.759 --> 00:21:31.839
<v Speaker 2>If you are in there, you have a fighting chance.

472
00:21:31.960 --> 00:21:33.559
<v Speaker 3>Correct, it's the sweet spot.

473
00:21:33.759 --> 00:21:37.400
<v Speaker 2>And finally, fact four. This one sounded like a heavy

474
00:21:37.440 --> 00:21:39.319
<v Speaker 2>metal band. Metallicity.

475
00:21:39.480 --> 00:21:44.079
<v Speaker 3>Ah Yes, metallicity in astronomy, we have a very funny

476
00:21:44.079 --> 00:21:48.119
<v Speaker 3>periodic table. It confuses the chemists to no end. Also,

477
00:21:48.440 --> 00:21:52.839
<v Speaker 3>to an astronomer, there is hydrogen, there is helium, and

478
00:21:52.960 --> 00:21:54.599
<v Speaker 3>everything else is a metal.

479
00:21:54.440 --> 00:21:59.440
<v Speaker 2>Carbon, metal, oxygen, metal, nitrogen, iron, all metals.

480
00:21:59.480 --> 00:22:02.039
<v Speaker 3>So when we talk talk about a star with high metallicity,

481
00:22:02.079 --> 00:22:03.799
<v Speaker 3>we mean a star that has a lot of heavier

482
00:22:03.799 --> 00:22:07.240
<v Speaker 3>elements in it, elements that aren't the primordial hydrogen or

483
00:22:07.279 --> 00:22:08.680
<v Speaker 3>helium from the Big Bang.

484
00:22:08.880 --> 00:22:10.559
<v Speaker 2>And why does that help a planet survive.

485
00:22:10.680 --> 00:22:12.839
<v Speaker 3>It's not so much that it helps them survive the fire.

486
00:22:13.000 --> 00:22:15.880
<v Speaker 3>It helps them exists in the first place. High metallicity

487
00:22:15.920 --> 00:22:19.079
<v Speaker 3>stars are more likely to form planets, especially giant ones.

488
00:22:19.119 --> 00:22:20.680
<v Speaker 2>It's a numbers game exactly.

489
00:22:20.839 --> 00:22:23.319
<v Speaker 3>You need the raw materials, the dust, the rock, the

490
00:22:23.400 --> 00:22:26.759
<v Speaker 3>ice to build a gas giant core. If a star

491
00:22:26.880 --> 00:22:29.599
<v Speaker 3>is rich in metals, it has more building blocks available

492
00:22:29.640 --> 00:22:30.640
<v Speaker 3>in its initial discs.

493
00:22:30.680 --> 00:22:32.680
<v Speaker 2>It's like trying to build a lego castle. If you

494
00:22:32.720 --> 00:22:34.960
<v Speaker 2>have three buckets of bricks, you can build a bigger,

495
00:22:34.960 --> 00:22:37.039
<v Speaker 2>better castle than if you only have three bricks.

496
00:22:37.200 --> 00:22:40.279
<v Speaker 3>Perfect analogy. If a star is rich in metals, it

497
00:22:40.319 --> 00:22:43.000
<v Speaker 3>builds more planets and bigger planets. So if you start

498
00:22:43.039 --> 00:22:45.920
<v Speaker 3>with more planets, statistically you end up with more survivors.

499
00:22:46.119 --> 00:22:49.000
<v Speaker 2>The quote in the paper was something like, progenitors with

500
00:22:49.079 --> 00:22:52.400
<v Speaker 2>higher metallicities simply form more planets.

501
00:22:52.680 --> 00:22:56.559
<v Speaker 3>Simple logic. More lottery tickets means a higher chance of winning.

502
00:22:56.759 --> 00:22:59.839
<v Speaker 2>So to recap the survivor's handbook, pick a sun likes

503
00:23:00.839 --> 00:23:03.720
<v Speaker 2>don't be too old as a system, orbit between three

504
00:23:03.759 --> 00:23:06.400
<v Speaker 2>and twenty four AU, and make sure your star is

505
00:23:06.440 --> 00:23:07.400
<v Speaker 2>made of heavy stuff.

506
00:23:07.480 --> 00:23:09.599
<v Speaker 3>That is your best bet for making it through. But

507
00:23:09.759 --> 00:23:13.279
<v Speaker 3>even then, there is an invisible killer we haven't discussed yet,

508
00:23:13.480 --> 00:23:16.000
<v Speaker 3>a variable that could ruin everything.

509
00:23:15.640 --> 00:23:18.079
<v Speaker 2>The invisible killer. This sounds ominous, it is.

510
00:23:18.240 --> 00:23:20.640
<v Speaker 3>We mention it briefly in the death list, but we

511
00:23:20.720 --> 00:23:22.640
<v Speaker 3>need to go deeper. We need to talk about tides.

512
00:23:22.720 --> 00:23:24.359
<v Speaker 2>This was a big part of the new paper, right,

513
00:23:24.440 --> 00:23:27.200
<v Speaker 2>the physics of tides. Now, when I think of tides,

514
00:23:27.240 --> 00:23:29.720
<v Speaker 2>I think of the beach, the moon pulls the water,

515
00:23:29.920 --> 00:23:32.519
<v Speaker 2>high tide, low tide. It's peaceful.

516
00:23:32.799 --> 00:23:36.680
<v Speaker 3>That is the basic concept gravity from one object stretching another.

517
00:23:36.920 --> 00:23:38.839
<v Speaker 3>But now scale it up to a star that is

518
00:23:38.920 --> 00:23:42.359
<v Speaker 3>swelling to the size of Earth's orbit. Okay, not peaceful,

519
00:23:42.559 --> 00:23:47.400
<v Speaker 3>not peaceful at all. As the star swells, it becomes fluffy.

520
00:23:47.440 --> 00:23:50.640
<v Speaker 3>It's not a dense ball anymore. It's a diffuse, turbulent

521
00:23:50.680 --> 00:23:54.839
<v Speaker 3>cloud of hot gas what we call the convective envelope marshmallow.

522
00:23:54.839 --> 00:23:55.079
<v Speaker 2>Again.

523
00:23:55.279 --> 00:23:59.359
<v Speaker 3>Yes, Now, imagine a planet orbiting through the outer edges

524
00:23:59.400 --> 00:24:02.759
<v Speaker 3>of that fluff. We're just near it. The planet raises

525
00:24:02.799 --> 00:24:06.359
<v Speaker 3>tides on the star. It gravitationally pulls the gas toward it,

526
00:24:06.799 --> 00:24:08.960
<v Speaker 3>and the star raises tides on the planet.

527
00:24:09.000 --> 00:24:10.359
<v Speaker 2>It's a gravitational tuggle war.

528
00:24:10.480 --> 00:24:14.119
<v Speaker 3>It is. But here is the catch, tidal lag. The

529
00:24:14.119 --> 00:24:17.599
<v Speaker 3>star is spinning and the planet is orbiting. They aren't

530
00:24:17.599 --> 00:24:21.119
<v Speaker 3>perfectly syncd The bulge of gas that the planet pulls

531
00:24:21.200 --> 00:24:23.640
<v Speaker 3>up it doesn't point directly at the planet because of

532
00:24:23.680 --> 00:24:26.599
<v Speaker 3>the star's rotation. It lags behind or pulls ahead.

533
00:24:26.680 --> 00:24:28.960
<v Speaker 2>Okay, so they are at a sink. What does that do?

534
00:24:29.200 --> 00:24:32.599
<v Speaker 3>And that misalignment creates torque, It creates friction, It creates.

535
00:24:32.440 --> 00:24:34.519
<v Speaker 2>Drag drag like air resistance.

536
00:24:34.599 --> 00:24:36.799
<v Speaker 3>It's a very similar concept. Think of it like this.

537
00:24:37.240 --> 00:24:40.319
<v Speaker 3>If the planet is orbiting through empty space, it glides

538
00:24:40.400 --> 00:24:43.519
<v Speaker 3>effortlessly forever. But if the star swells up and the

539
00:24:43.519 --> 00:24:46.359
<v Speaker 3>planet starts interacting with those powerful tidal forces, it's like

540
00:24:46.400 --> 00:24:49.519
<v Speaker 3>the planet is suddenly wading through molasses that slows it down,

541
00:24:49.839 --> 00:24:53.039
<v Speaker 3>and in orbital mechanics, if you slow down, you drop,

542
00:24:53.279 --> 00:24:55.880
<v Speaker 3>your orbit decays, you spiral.

543
00:24:55.400 --> 00:24:58.440
<v Speaker 2>Inward toward the center of the star, toward destruction. So

544
00:24:58.519 --> 00:25:00.960
<v Speaker 2>the tides act like a break, dragging the planet to

545
00:25:01.039 --> 00:25:02.000
<v Speaker 2>its two exactly.

546
00:25:02.279 --> 00:25:04.359
<v Speaker 3>But here is the controversy in the paper, and it's

547
00:25:04.400 --> 00:25:07.640
<v Speaker 3>a huge deal. The researchers had to choose between two

548
00:25:07.799 --> 00:25:11.359
<v Speaker 3>different mathematical formulas for tides. Because we don't know exactly

549
00:25:11.400 --> 00:25:13.799
<v Speaker 3>how thick or sticky that interaction is.

550
00:25:13.839 --> 00:25:14.599
<v Speaker 2>You can't test it.

551
00:25:14.880 --> 00:25:17.079
<v Speaker 3>We don't have a red giant nearby to test it on.

552
00:25:17.160 --> 00:25:20.720
<v Speaker 3>So it's a big debate. In astrophysics. There are weak

553
00:25:20.839 --> 00:25:23.839
<v Speaker 3>tides based on a model by a. Villaver and Lvio

554
00:25:23.920 --> 00:25:26.599
<v Speaker 3>from two thousand and nine, and there are strong tides

555
00:25:26.839 --> 00:25:30.039
<v Speaker 3>suggested by Ratio and colleagues back in nineteen ninety six.

556
00:25:30.400 --> 00:25:31.680
<v Speaker 2>What's the difference in the outcome?

557
00:25:31.839 --> 00:25:36.079
<v Speaker 3>It's enormous. Imagine the difference between wading through water versus

558
00:25:36.079 --> 00:25:39.119
<v Speaker 3>wading through quicksand that is the difference between weak and

559
00:25:39.200 --> 00:25:40.000
<v Speaker 3>strong tides.

560
00:25:40.119 --> 00:25:42.359
<v Speaker 2>So if the tides are weak, the planet.

561
00:25:42.039 --> 00:25:45.400
<v Speaker 3>Experiences less drag, it's more likely to stay in its orbit.

562
00:25:45.599 --> 00:25:47.799
<v Speaker 3>The survival rate effectively doubles in.

563
00:25:47.759 --> 00:25:50.880
<v Speaker 2>Their simulation, doubles just from that one variable.

564
00:25:50.960 --> 00:25:52.799
<v Speaker 3>Yes, and if the tides are strong.

565
00:25:52.519 --> 00:25:53.640
<v Speaker 2>Then planet gets dragged in.

566
00:25:53.880 --> 00:25:56.880
<v Speaker 3>The drag is immense. The planet gets pulled in and

567
00:25:56.960 --> 00:26:00.640
<v Speaker 3>destroyed much much more easily. The survival rate plummets.

568
00:26:00.920 --> 00:26:03.359
<v Speaker 2>So the fate of these planets literally hangs on a

569
00:26:03.440 --> 00:26:05.839
<v Speaker 2>variable in a math equation that we aren't one hundred

570
00:26:05.839 --> 00:26:06.480
<v Speaker 2>percent sure about.

571
00:26:06.519 --> 00:26:09.079
<v Speaker 3>Yet it does. The paper has this fascinating graph. They

572
00:26:09.079 --> 00:26:12.839
<v Speaker 3>call it the island of probability in the strong tide scenario.

573
00:26:13.119 --> 00:26:16.680
<v Speaker 3>The graph shows just this tiny, tiny island of mass

574
00:26:16.720 --> 00:26:19.880
<v Speaker 3>and distance where a planet can live. Everywhere else is

575
00:26:19.920 --> 00:26:20.880
<v Speaker 3>a sea of death.

576
00:26:21.000 --> 00:26:22.759
<v Speaker 2>And if you turn up the tides even a little

577
00:26:22.799 --> 00:26:23.640
<v Speaker 2>bit more than that.

578
00:26:23.640 --> 00:26:27.039
<v Speaker 3>The island sinks. The survival rate drops to almost zero.

579
00:26:27.319 --> 00:26:31.119
<v Speaker 2>That is terrifyingly fragile. It means survival is on a

580
00:26:31.200 --> 00:26:32.039
<v Speaker 2>razor's edge.

581
00:26:32.160 --> 00:26:35.000
<v Speaker 3>It highlights just how chaotic this transition is. It's not

582
00:26:35.079 --> 00:26:38.920
<v Speaker 3>a gentle process. It is a violent, turbulent restructuring of

583
00:26:38.920 --> 00:26:42.200
<v Speaker 3>gravity and matter. One small change in the physics can

584
00:26:42.240 --> 00:26:45.160
<v Speaker 3>be the difference between life and death for an entire world.

585
00:26:45.319 --> 00:26:47.839
<v Speaker 2>So we have the simulation saying survival is rare, less

586
00:26:47.839 --> 00:26:50.279
<v Speaker 2>than three percent. But let's go back to the reality check.

587
00:26:50.319 --> 00:26:52.440
<v Speaker 2>We have telescopes, we have the James Web, we have

588
00:26:52.720 --> 00:26:56.000
<v Speaker 2>giant ground based observatories. Why aren't we seeing more of

589
00:26:56.039 --> 00:26:56.759
<v Speaker 2>these survivors?

590
00:26:57.039 --> 00:27:00.480
<v Speaker 3>The paper addresses this directly. They ask is this a

591
00:27:00.519 --> 00:27:03.519
<v Speaker 3>detection problem or an existence problem?

592
00:27:03.519 --> 00:27:06.160
<v Speaker 2>Meaning are they there and we just can't see them,

593
00:27:06.359 --> 00:27:07.880
<v Speaker 2>or are they just not there in the first place?

594
00:27:08.039 --> 00:27:11.559
<v Speaker 3>Right? Direct imaging Taking a picture of a planet is

595
00:27:11.599 --> 00:27:14.160
<v Speaker 3>incredibly hard. It depends on contrast. You need a bright

596
00:27:14.240 --> 00:27:16.680
<v Speaker 3>planet and a dim star, and.

597
00:27:16.680 --> 00:27:19.160
<v Speaker 2>White dwarfs change over time, don't they They do.

598
00:27:19.440 --> 00:27:23.839
<v Speaker 3>They're born incredibly hot, glowing white or blue, but they're

599
00:27:23.880 --> 00:27:27.079
<v Speaker 3>not generating new energy. They're just cooling off. A young

600
00:27:27.119 --> 00:27:30.319
<v Speaker 3>white dwarf is relatively bright and hot. An old one

601
00:27:30.400 --> 00:27:31.680
<v Speaker 3>is cold and dim.

602
00:27:31.480 --> 00:27:32.759
<v Speaker 2>And the planet cools down too.

603
00:27:32.880 --> 00:27:35.799
<v Speaker 3>I assume exactly, it's not getting much energy from its

604
00:27:35.920 --> 00:27:39.480
<v Speaker 3>dead stars. If you have a cold, faint planet orbiting

605
00:27:39.519 --> 00:27:42.400
<v Speaker 3>a cold faint star, it's like trying to spot a

606
00:27:42.400 --> 00:27:45.640
<v Speaker 3>piece of coal in a dark cellar from a mile away. Impossible,

607
00:27:45.920 --> 00:27:48.519
<v Speaker 3>very very difficult. So the older the system, the harder

608
00:27:48.559 --> 00:27:50.160
<v Speaker 3>it is to see a surviving planet.

609
00:27:50.319 --> 00:27:51.319
<v Speaker 2>So are we missing them?

610
00:27:51.400 --> 00:27:54.200
<v Speaker 3>Is that the answer, the conclusion in the paper is no,

611
00:27:54.759 --> 00:27:57.359
<v Speaker 3>or at least not entirely. They argue that even when

612
00:27:57.400 --> 00:27:59.359
<v Speaker 3>you account for how hard it is to see them,

613
00:27:59.559 --> 00:28:03.000
<v Speaker 3>the number are still too low. Our current surveys should

614
00:28:03.039 --> 00:28:04.839
<v Speaker 3>have found more by now if they were common.

615
00:28:05.000 --> 00:28:08.519
<v Speaker 2>So the scarcity is real. The simulation is likely correct.

616
00:28:08.640 --> 00:28:11.240
<v Speaker 3>Yes, the low number of detections isn't just because the

617
00:28:11.240 --> 00:28:14.079
<v Speaker 3>eyes are bad. It reflects reality. They really are that rare.

618
00:28:14.400 --> 00:28:16.039
<v Speaker 3>Most planets simply die.

619
00:28:16.279 --> 00:28:17.359
<v Speaker 2>That is a sobering thought.

620
00:28:17.480 --> 00:28:21.000
<v Speaker 3>It is It validates the simulation. The universe is a

621
00:28:21.000 --> 00:28:23.000
<v Speaker 3>graveyard of planetary systems.

622
00:28:23.640 --> 00:28:26.839
<v Speaker 2>Well on that cheerful note. Yeah, let's bring this home,

623
00:28:27.240 --> 00:28:30.640
<v Speaker 2>literally home to our Solar system, because we started this

624
00:28:30.680 --> 00:28:32.880
<v Speaker 2>by saying this is a trailer for our future.

625
00:28:33.000 --> 00:28:35.359
<v Speaker 3>Yes, let's apply these findings to us. Let's run the

626
00:28:35.400 --> 00:28:38.720
<v Speaker 3>diagnostics on the Solar system using their survivor's handbook.

627
00:28:38.799 --> 00:28:41.519
<v Speaker 2>We have the Sun. It's a main sequence star. In

628
00:28:41.599 --> 00:28:44.680
<v Speaker 2>about five billion years give or take, it runs out

629
00:28:44.680 --> 00:28:46.960
<v Speaker 2>of hydrogen in its core. It goes red giant.

630
00:28:47.039 --> 00:28:49.119
<v Speaker 3>Correct, Phase one of the end begins.

631
00:28:49.359 --> 00:28:51.880
<v Speaker 2>Let's do the roll call Mercury and venus.

632
00:28:51.640 --> 00:28:56.440
<v Speaker 3>Engulfed, vaporized, gone. They don't stand a chance. They are

633
00:28:56.480 --> 00:28:59.039
<v Speaker 3>deep inside the furnace. Earth is right on the bubble.

634
00:28:59.319 --> 00:29:02.920
<v Speaker 3>The Sun will expand almost exactly to Earth's orbit. Some

635
00:29:03.000 --> 00:29:05.880
<v Speaker 3>models say it stops just short, some say it swallows us.

636
00:29:05.920 --> 00:29:07.839
<v Speaker 2>And even if it stops short, even.

637
00:29:07.680 --> 00:29:09.720
<v Speaker 3>If it stops just short, the heat will be so

638
00:29:09.880 --> 00:29:13.720
<v Speaker 3>intense it will strip our atmosphere and boil the oceans dry.

639
00:29:13.960 --> 00:29:17.359
<v Speaker 3>Earth as a living planet is dead. That happens way

640
00:29:17.359 --> 00:29:19.759
<v Speaker 3>before the red giant phase, actually just from the Sun

641
00:29:19.759 --> 00:29:23.400
<v Speaker 3>getting brighter. But Earth as a rock maybe it survives,

642
00:29:23.680 --> 00:29:26.160
<v Speaker 3>but likely those tidal forces we talked about, they will

643
00:29:26.240 --> 00:29:26.720
<v Speaker 3>drag it in.

644
00:29:27.000 --> 00:29:29.720
<v Speaker 2>So don't buy real estate for the year five million,

645
00:29:29.799 --> 00:29:30.680
<v Speaker 2>twenty six.

646
00:29:30.880 --> 00:29:32.720
<v Speaker 3>Not a recommended long term investment.

647
00:29:32.880 --> 00:29:33.200
<v Speaker 2>Mars.

648
00:29:33.319 --> 00:29:36.480
<v Speaker 3>Mars is further out. It will almost certainly escape the engulfment,

649
00:29:36.839 --> 00:29:38.920
<v Speaker 3>but the radiation will toast it. It will be a

650
00:29:38.960 --> 00:29:41.440
<v Speaker 3>burnt cinder. It's thin atmosphere long gone.

651
00:29:41.480 --> 00:29:44.480
<v Speaker 2>And then we get to the big boys, Jupiter and Saturn.

652
00:29:44.519 --> 00:29:46.680
<v Speaker 3>This is where the paper gives us hope. Jupiter is

653
00:29:46.680 --> 00:29:49.759
<v Speaker 3>at five AU, Saturn is at nine point five AU.

654
00:29:49.960 --> 00:29:52.279
<v Speaker 2>They are in that three to twenty four AU survival beilt.

655
00:29:52.359 --> 00:29:54.599
<v Speaker 3>They are smack in the middle of it, and the

656
00:29:54.640 --> 00:29:57.480
<v Speaker 3>Sun is a one solar mass star that fits the

657
00:29:57.519 --> 00:29:59.359
<v Speaker 3>progenitor criteria perfectly, and we.

658
00:29:59.319 --> 00:30:01.440
<v Speaker 2>Have decent metal city. Our Sun has all those metals

659
00:30:01.640 --> 00:30:01.960
<v Speaker 2>we do.

660
00:30:02.400 --> 00:30:05.039
<v Speaker 3>The Sun is a relatively metal rich star, which is

661
00:30:05.039 --> 00:30:07.599
<v Speaker 3>why we have a robust planetary system in the first place.

662
00:30:07.720 --> 00:30:10.880
<v Speaker 2>So Jupiter and Saturn to check all the boxes, they're

663
00:30:10.880 --> 00:30:12.160
<v Speaker 2>the designated survivors.

664
00:30:12.319 --> 00:30:16.440
<v Speaker 3>Statistically, yes, we are likely in that lucky three percent,

665
00:30:16.640 --> 00:30:19.880
<v Speaker 3>or given our local conditions, that more hopeful eight percent.

666
00:30:20.279 --> 00:30:22.680
<v Speaker 3>When our Sun becomes a white dwarf six or seven

667
00:30:22.720 --> 00:30:25.160
<v Speaker 3>billion years from now, our inner solar system will be

668
00:30:25.160 --> 00:30:28.799
<v Speaker 3>a ghost town, but Jupiter and Saturn will likely still

669
00:30:28.839 --> 00:30:29.279
<v Speaker 3>be there.

670
00:30:29.279 --> 00:30:32.200
<v Speaker 2>Orbiting a tiny white point of light in the cold.

671
00:30:31.920 --> 00:30:34.559
<v Speaker 3>In the dark. The Sun will be the size of Earth,

672
00:30:34.920 --> 00:30:37.960
<v Speaker 3>casting a pale, weak light, no brighter than the full

673
00:30:38.000 --> 00:30:41.599
<v Speaker 3>moon does on Earth today. Jupiter will be freezing, but

674
00:30:41.720 --> 00:30:42.359
<v Speaker 3>it will be there.

675
00:30:42.680 --> 00:30:47.000
<v Speaker 2>There is something hauntingly beautiful about that, a quiet, lonely vigil.

676
00:30:47.119 --> 00:30:48.680
<v Speaker 3>It is a solar system of two.

677
00:30:49.200 --> 00:30:51.240
<v Speaker 2>I want to leave our listeners with a final thought. Today,

678
00:30:51.480 --> 00:30:53.240
<v Speaker 2>we often look up at the night sky and think

679
00:30:53.279 --> 00:30:56.599
<v Speaker 2>about life and civilizations and beginnings. We think about the

680
00:30:56.599 --> 00:31:00.359
<v Speaker 2>Goldilock zone for liquid water and biology. There is an

681
00:31:00.440 --> 00:31:01.200
<v Speaker 2>end to the story too.

682
00:31:01.319 --> 00:31:04.640
<v Speaker 3>The universe is constantly changing. Nothing stays in the main

683
00:31:04.680 --> 00:31:05.680
<v Speaker 3>sequence forever.

684
00:31:05.960 --> 00:31:08.559
<v Speaker 2>I want you to picture that final white dwarf system,

685
00:31:09.559 --> 00:31:13.480
<v Speaker 2>a burnt out star no bigger than Earth but super dense,

686
00:31:14.119 --> 00:31:19.240
<v Speaker 2>a cold, dark universe around it, and there, silently orbiting

687
00:31:19.240 --> 00:31:22.440
<v Speaker 2>in the dark is a massive gas giant, maybe Jupiter,

688
00:31:23.000 --> 00:31:26.759
<v Speaker 2>with its great red spot long faded, a silent witness exactly.

689
00:31:27.240 --> 00:31:29.799
<v Speaker 2>It's the last witness to a solar system that once

690
00:31:29.880 --> 00:31:33.599
<v Speaker 2>hosted life. It's the tombstone, but it's also the legacy,

691
00:31:34.000 --> 00:31:35.160
<v Speaker 2>the last thing standing.

692
00:31:35.440 --> 00:31:37.759
<v Speaker 3>And if an alien astronomer looks at our dead solar

693
00:31:37.799 --> 00:31:40.559
<v Speaker 3>system seven billion years from now, that is what they

694
00:31:40.599 --> 00:31:42.880
<v Speaker 3>will see. They won't see the pyramids, they won't see

695
00:31:42.880 --> 00:31:45.359
<v Speaker 3>our skyscrapers, they won't see the Great Wall of China.

696
00:31:45.440 --> 00:31:46.759
<v Speaker 2>They'll see a white dwarf.

697
00:31:46.559 --> 00:31:49.160
<v Speaker 3>And they will see Jupiter, and if their instruments are

698
00:31:49.160 --> 00:31:52.599
<v Speaker 3>good enough, maybe Saturn, and they will know this system

699
00:31:52.640 --> 00:31:54.880
<v Speaker 3>once was, this system survived.

700
00:31:55.000 --> 00:31:56.960
<v Speaker 2>So next time you look at Jupiter through a backyard

701
00:31:57.000 --> 00:31:59.759
<v Speaker 2>telescope or just see that bright, steady dot in the sky,

702
00:32:00.480 --> 00:32:02.920
<v Speaker 2>don't just see a planet see the survivor, the one

703
00:32:02.920 --> 00:32:03.720
<v Speaker 2>that makes it to the end.

704
00:32:03.680 --> 00:32:05.039
<v Speaker 3>Of the book, the hearty survivor.

705
00:32:05.519 --> 00:32:07.799
<v Speaker 2>Thanks for joining us for this exploration. It's a big

706
00:32:07.880 --> 00:32:10.759
<v Speaker 2>universe out there, and sometimes it's good to know what

707
00:32:10.799 --> 00:32:11.519
<v Speaker 2>makes it to the end.

708
00:32:11.640 --> 00:32:13.319
<v Speaker 3>Indeed, keep looking up.

709
00:32:13.519 --> 00:33:29.319
<v Speaker 2>Get you next time, Sai.
