Speaker 1: Friday, July thirty, first, twenty twenty six. Welcome in. By
Speaker 1: the end of this episode, you'll see why prediction markets
Speaker 1: are suddenly at the center of a regulatory storm and
Speaker 1: what that actually means for your crypto bets. Quick note
Speaker 1: before we dive in. If you've been watching the Fear
Speaker 1: and Greed gauge sync this week, today's stories will help
Speaker 1: you make sense at that caution, we're in a crypto
Speaker 1: bear market, so let's focus on defense rather than chasing moves.
Speaker 1: But first, a quick word from our sponsor. Okay, so
Speaker 1: here's what's happening. Bitcoin sixty thousand dollars puts our leading
Speaker 1: options flow right now. August mood has flipped bearish and
Speaker 1: traders are actively hedging their downside, which means the market
Speaker 1: is bracing for a potential pullback rather than expecting a
Speaker 1: quick rally. Bitcoin is holding around sixty four thousand dollars,
Speaker 1: barely moving on the day. Ethereum is sitting near eighteen hundred.
Speaker 1: The real signal here is sentiment. The fear and greed
Speaker 1: in deck drop to twenty five, which is extreme fear.
Speaker 1: Stable coin supply is flat at about three hundred and
Speaker 1: seven billion dollars, so there isn't fresh liquidity waiting on
Speaker 1: the sidelines. Total market cap is around two point three trillion,
Speaker 1: also pretty quiet. Why this matters is that without new
Speaker 1: cash coming in, prices tend to drift lower until sentiment shifts.
Speaker 1: Tokenized private credit is the strongest narrative today up only
Speaker 1: a little over seven days. It is a mixed selective picture.
Speaker 1: We've got a polymarket signal to share. The question is simple,
Speaker 1: we'll Bitcoin dip to sixty three thousand in July. Right now,
Speaker 1: the yes side trades at about fifteen percent, meaning the
Speaker 1: crowd says probably not. The drift has moved further away
Speaker 1: from a dip as the month wraps up. One thing
Speaker 1: that would flip the read is if that drift reverses
Speaker 1: as the market gets closer to resolving. If you want
Speaker 1: alerts like this in real time instead of hearing about
Speaker 1: them after the fact, here's the path. This is the
Speaker 1: kind of call. Token metrics signal sends every week, seven
Speaker 1: days free at tokenmetrics dot com. New York just sued
Speaker 1: kl She seeking about thirty six billion dollars in damages
Speaker 1: over alleged illegal gambling. Prediction markets are the hottest growth
Speaker 1: story in crypto adjacencies, but regulators just through a flag.
Speaker 1: If the suit lands, every event contract venue from Robinhood
Speaker 1: to Finance US feels the chill money is betting, the
Speaker 1: regulatory wall goes up. The second order read is that
Speaker 1: a freeze on these venues would push retail betters back
Speaker 1: to offshore crypto casinos, not to traditional stocks. Watch if
Speaker 1: a judge grants an injunction within seven days, that's when
Speaker 1: prediction market tokens face freeze risk. World Cup bets smashed records,
Speaker 1: pushing prediction markets passed over twenty billion dollars in volume.
Speaker 1: People want to bet on outcomes more than ever, and
Speaker 1: crypto rails make it easy. But the cal she suit
Speaker 1: shows the party may get rated volume this big means
Speaker 1: mainstream attention, which brings both users and cops. The takeaway
Speaker 1: is that if volume holds after the tournament, retail has
Speaker 1: permanently shifted to prediction venues, but if it craters, the
Speaker 1: spike was just tournament fever. Coinbase posted about three hundred
Speaker 1: and sixty million dollars in Q two losses as revenue
Speaker 1: fell fourteen percent, yet market share hit a record ten percent.
Speaker 1: The largest US exchange is bleeding but eating rivals. Lunch
Speaker 1: trading drought hits all venues, but Coinbase's scale means survivors
Speaker 1: take share in this bear market. It's the crypto version
Speaker 1: of a recession. Small players die big, get bigger. If
Speaker 1: trading volumes stay thin into Q three, expect cost cuts
Speaker 1: across the sector. Ave defies biggest lender weighs closing six
Speaker 1: V three blockchain markets and off boarding fifty low use reserves.
Speaker 1: This is cleanup, not crisis, but lazy liquidity is getting flushed.
Speaker 1: Capital is migrating to active L two s like Robinhood
Speaker 1: Chain up eleven percent this week and Morph up fifty
Speaker 1: four percent. Why this matters is that if the vote passes,
Speaker 1: total value locked shifts to hotter L two s within
Speaker 1: a month, signaling where builders actually build. Bernstein sees seventy
Speaker 1: eight percent upside for Robinhood as tokenization and prediction markets expand.
Speaker 1: Robinhood's event contracts already topped crypto inequities revenue last quarter.
Speaker 1: The broker is becoming a full crypto venue, not a
Speaker 1: side bet. Traditional finance is noticing. The signal is that
Speaker 1: if robin Hood prediction market revenue exceeds crypto trading revenue
Speaker 1: again next quarter. It marks a structural shift in where
Speaker 1: retail prefers to trade. All right, before we get into
Speaker 1: the risks, quick word from our sponsor. Okay, we're back.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about what to watch for. First, extreme fear sentiment.
Speaker 1: The Fear and Greed Index at twenty five shows strong
Speaker 1: risk aversion, but not full capitulation and yet. Second, flat
Speaker 1: stable coin supply. Stable coin supply grew less than one
Speaker 1: percent in twenty four hours, so no fresh liquidity to
Speaker 1: absorb selling pressure. Third prediction, market regulatory blow. New York's
Speaker 1: thirty six billion dollar cal She sue could freeze event
Speaker 1: contract venues that crypto users flocked to. Finally, the read
Speaker 1: is that buyers are cautious because sentiment is at extreme
Speaker 1: fear and stable coin supply barely grew. That changes if
Speaker 1: Bitcoin reclaims sixty five thousand and fear and greed climbs
Speaker 1: above thirty. First, coinbase Q two earning signal. The Q
Speaker 1: three outlook matters because if trading stays dry, venues cut cost,
Speaker 1: and coinbase already posted a loss. Second, Ethereum institutional fund
Speaker 1: close it's ongoing and new capital shows builder interest despite
Speaker 1: bear market conditions. Third FED press schedule within the next
Speaker 1: seven days. Macro signals from the Fed can shift risk
Speaker 1: appetite for crypto assets. The main risk is regulatory chill
Speaker 1: and fear, so watch if Bitcoin holds sixty thousand into
Speaker 1: August options expiry, while fear and greed stays below thirty
Speaker 1: confirming hedging is protection, not capitulation. By the way, if
Speaker 1: you want the full written breakdown, check out our newsletter
Speaker 1: at tokenmetrics dot com. This is educational content, not investment advice.
Speaker 1: Always do your own research. I'm Alex, See you next time.