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Speaker 1: are Texas Matters and Texas State Technical College.
Speaker 2: Hello, and welcome to the Texas Tribune Trip Cast for Wednesday,
Speaker 2: May twenty seventh. I am your host, Matthew Watkins, joined
Speaker 2: as usual by my co host Eleanor Klibanoff.
Speaker 3: Hello, Eleanor, Hello Matthew.
Speaker 4: How are you.
Speaker 2: I am feeling very well rested.
Speaker 5: Alarmingly well rested for the day after an election. Yeah.
Speaker 2: We of course usually have very late nights on election night,
Speaker 2: but sometimes the races are so you know, much blowouts
Speaker 2: that we can all go to bed and go home
Speaker 2: by ten eleven o'clock.
Speaker 3: And that is where we are today.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 5: I was home by and in bed by midnight, which
Speaker 5: is amazing. I don't know if that's a good thing
Speaker 5: or a bad thing.
Speaker 2: Amazing. We'll bring we'll bring the energy today to make
Speaker 2: up for that. Joined this week to recap the Texas
Speaker 2: primary runoffs by our Washington correspondent Gabby Beerenbaum.
Speaker 6: Hello, Gabby, Hello, Hello, thanks for having me and.
Speaker 3: You know him, you love him?
Speaker 2: From Spectrum News and from formerly of the Trip Cast,
Speaker 2: James Badergan, Hello James.
Speaker 4: Hello, it's good to be back.
Speaker 2: Came crawling back.
Speaker 4: Away.
Speaker 5: We invited him.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 2: So, of course, as we already mentioned, it was not
Speaker 2: a late night. The reason it was not a late
Speaker 2: night for many of us was because at the very
Speaker 2: top of the ticket, Ken Paxton, our Attorney General, trounced
Speaker 2: John Cornyn, the incumbent US Senator. Last I looked, we're
Speaker 2: at i think around ninety nine percent of the vote's cast,
Speaker 2: so it could switch, you know, go up or down
Speaker 2: a percentage pointer or so. Paxton receiving sixty four percent
Speaker 2: of the vote, Cornyn receiving thirty six percent. Gabby, you
Speaker 2: have been following this race closely. Were you surprised?
Speaker 6: I wasn't surprised that Paxton. I was surprised by the margin.
Speaker 6: I think people read into the early voting tea leaves,
Speaker 6: I guess myself included it seemed like the urban counties
Speaker 6: were turning out at a high rate than the others,
Speaker 6: that that might be good for Cornyn. But I think
Speaker 6: clearly persuasion mattered a ton. Over the course of the
Speaker 6: runoff and over the course of those almost three months,
Speaker 6: I think it was clear that the people who came
Speaker 6: back were more Paxton friendly that undecided people broke Paxton,
Speaker 6: Wesley Hunt voters book broke packs at all. Sort of
Speaker 6: was coming up Paxton last night.
Speaker 3: What happened, James, I don't know.
Speaker 4: I'm with Gabby in that I think I thought that
Speaker 4: Ken Paxton was still going to win, But I was
Speaker 4: also sort of swayed by all this conversation that the
Speaker 4: early vote was trending well for Cornyn. But I mean,
Speaker 4: I think at the end of the day, anything that
Speaker 4: was going to be close, if it was going to
Speaker 4: be close, got switched by the President's endorsement last Tuesday,
Speaker 4: with a lot of early voting still to go. And
Speaker 4: I think what we really learned last night obviously is
Speaker 4: that it's the President's party because in multiple races where
Speaker 4: he endorsed, his candidates won, and they didn't win Squeakers
Speaker 4: like they won by a long shot, even in some
Speaker 4: races where there were other major endorsements. So I think
Speaker 4: that's obviously what did it. But you know, you've got
Speaker 4: to also give the flowers to Ken Paxton. He was
Speaker 4: spent outspent. I think I read in your story Gabby
Speaker 4: nine to one in the in the primary, three to
Speaker 4: one in the runoff and this guy keeps winning. I mean,
Speaker 4: he's just so tapped into the grassroots, he's so tapped
Speaker 4: into the base that you do kind of have to
Speaker 4: give it up for him. I'm sure we'll get to
Speaker 4: this and it's going to be a different discussion in November.
Speaker 4: But sixty four percent, I mean, what else can you say?
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, I think like it's so clear that
Speaker 5: Trump endorsement. I think there was, you know, any last
Speaker 5: hope maybe that the Corning camp had was you know,
Speaker 5: well maybe the timing of the Trump endorsement, certainly if
Speaker 5: it had come much earlier, came in the middle of
Speaker 5: early voting. It's a weird election time. The day after
Speaker 5: and it proves like it doesn't matter. And I do
Speaker 5: think we were discussing this earlier, like it raises the
Speaker 5: question of were their corn In voters who maybe just
Speaker 5: stayed home feeling like this is like, you know, definitely
Speaker 5: what's going to happen, Like it's not even sort of
Speaker 5: worth getting out to the polls, and does that impact
Speaker 5: races lower down?
Speaker 4: I don't think there were Corning voters that stayed home.
Speaker 4: I think they just got rocked. I mean, I think
Speaker 4: that's what happened. I mean, because Cornin is very, very
Speaker 4: good at getting out the vote. I mean, that's what
Speaker 4: I mean. We saw that in March for the primary.
Speaker 4: He surprised everyone. I think it was a tall order
Speaker 4: to ask him to do it twice. But I don't
Speaker 4: think that Cornin voters stayed home. I think the Paxton base,
Speaker 4: the Paxton patriots as he calls them, came out, and
Speaker 4: people who are motivated by the President came out. And
Speaker 4: that is just where the Republican Party in Texas is,
Speaker 4: as you guys have well covered.
Speaker 6: I also think it increasingly looks like, given the margin,
Speaker 6: Trump's endorsement I think wasn't necessarily to get Packson over
Speaker 6: the line. I think it more looks like the White
Speaker 6: House saw internal data that showed that Paxson was going
Speaker 6: to win, and the President likes a winner. I mean,
Speaker 6: that's always been his mo. And I'm not the only
Speaker 6: one who thinks that. Ted Cruz said that last night too,
Speaker 6: that he feels like they must have had looked at
Speaker 6: some data and thought, Okay, this guy's winning. Let's let's
Speaker 6: be a part of it, right.
Speaker 5: I mean, inevitably, some corn And voters, you know, or
Speaker 5: people that Corny was hoping to convince did not come
Speaker 5: out for him, right, I mean some of them swung
Speaker 5: over to and certainly some of these Wesley Hunt voters
Speaker 5: swung over. But like, I do think there was this
Speaker 5: I mean, Cornin was saying like if you didn't vote
Speaker 5: in the primary, like get out now it Certainly I
Speaker 5: think he was hoping to convince sort of this moshi
Speaker 5: middle of people who were like, Oh, I don't really
Speaker 5: think Ken Paxson was really a thread. Maybe I'll go
Speaker 5: And I don't think that group really if they exist,
Speaker 5: they're not as motivated as Cornan was hoping.
Speaker 6: No, I think the early voters were like eighty five
Speaker 6: percent or something people who voted in March. So he
Speaker 6: just did not get a lot of people out who
Speaker 6: hadn't participated in March, let alone like Warren consistent primary voters.
Speaker 2: Two point two million million voters in March in the
Speaker 2: Republican primary as of most recent count. It'll go up
Speaker 2: a little bit one point four million in May. That
Speaker 2: you know, if you have, by the way, eighteen point
Speaker 2: seven million registered voters in Texas, so seven point four
Speaker 2: percent turnout, it'll maybe go up to seven point five
Speaker 2: as those last votes are counted.
Speaker 3: Not great for Texas.
Speaker 2: You know, we know that these runoffs are really important
Speaker 2: in a state that's been voting Republican for the last
Speaker 2: you know, more than two decades. But this is how
Speaker 2: it goes, right, We if you've covered politics in Texas
Speaker 2: long enough, you know that it's going to be a tiny,
Speaker 2: tiny fraction, especially when you get into the runoff, that's
Speaker 2: going to decide these races. And most often that tiny
Speaker 2: tiny fraction is going to be the most activist wing
Speaker 2: of the party. And I think we've known all along
Speaker 2: that the most activist wing of the party likes Kin.
Speaker 5: Paxton here, and I think it's this arm of the
Speaker 5: party that, like, you know, since Ted Cruz beat David Hurst,
Speaker 5: you know, a dozen years ago, it's like, has continued
Speaker 5: to portray itself as like the underdog and the insurgents
Speaker 5: and certainly not the establishment, sort of the opposite of
Speaker 5: the establishment. But they have been consistently winning, consistently claiming
Speaker 5: more and more parts of the party. I mean, there's
Speaker 5: been some ups and down, certainly, but like they are increasingly.
Speaker 5: We've talked about this on the podcast a lot, Like
Speaker 5: at what point do you start saying like the party,
Speaker 5: the group, the arm of the party that's been in
Speaker 5: charge the longest, you know, for the last twelve years,
Speaker 5: is the establishment.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I would argue that the takeover began,
Speaker 2: you know, pick your date, whether it's twenty twelve or
Speaker 2: even a little bit earlier than that. But let's say
Speaker 2: it started in twenty twelve. You know, at that time,
Speaker 2: John Cornyn was our senator. Kay Bailey Hutchinson was our
Speaker 2: other senator. Ted Cruz going up against David duh Hurst,
Speaker 2: who you might term a bit of a more traditional,
Speaker 2: you know, a wealthy guy criticized on the right as
Speaker 2: being too moderate. He wins or comes out of the
Speaker 2: March primary as the front runner against Ted Cruz, winning
Speaker 2: by nine or leading by nine percent but failing to
Speaker 2: get the majority. Cruise outspins him three to one in
Speaker 2: the runoff, I mean, sorry, Dehurst, who is personally wealthy,
Speaker 2: outspends Cruise three to one on the runoff. Cruz ends
Speaker 2: up winning by fourteen percent. Now we have Cruise and
Speaker 2: Packson as our well, we'll see about that.
Speaker 4: Jumping the gun.
Speaker 3: Whoa, whoa, whoa. You know we have Cruises.
Speaker 4: I got the rest of the podcast here buddy.
Speaker 2: We Cruise as our senator. We have Paxton as the nominee.
Speaker 3: We have.
Speaker 2: Abbott, who has really moved toward that wing of the party.
Speaker 2: We have Dan Patrick the legion and governor. The establishment
Speaker 2: is no longer the established anymore. This is the establishment
Speaker 2: in Texas. And I would argue that this was the
Speaker 2: culmination of that. This is the end. It has been
Speaker 2: fully completed now that that wing of the party runs
Speaker 2: the Republican Party in Texas. I mean, we can go
Speaker 2: down the ballot and talk about a little bit more,
Speaker 2: but let's not do that yet.
Speaker 3: We'll hold Okay, So.
Speaker 2: Let's just pause for a minute and reflect on the
Speaker 2: survivability of kN Paxton to peel back the curtain a
Speaker 2: little bit. In the journalistic process, right, we have something
Speaker 2: that we had the Tribune call the political obit, right,
Speaker 2: and we write it when we feel like a politician's
Speaker 2: career could be at risk of coming to an end.
Speaker 2: And we wrote a political obit for Ken Paxton in
Speaker 2: twenty twenty three when he was impeached and it hit
Speaker 2: his future went to the Senate and we didn't know
Speaker 2: when that vote came out whether he was going to
Speaker 2: remain in office.
Speaker 1: Or not.
Speaker 2: We dusted it off and rewrote it. After the March
Speaker 2: primary when Donald Trump said that he was going to
Speaker 2: endorse someone in that race and insists that the other
Speaker 2: person drop out, and many people reading the tea leaves
Speaker 2: made the assumption that he was going to endorse John
Speaker 2: Cornyn and ask Ken Paxton to drop out. We didn't
Speaker 2: use it. We had one ready to go last night.
Speaker 2: We were pretty sure we weren't going to need it,
Speaker 2: but it was there. You know, people have been writing
Speaker 2: the political obituary of Ken Paxton for a long time.
Speaker 2: We are leaving out, you know, the when his lieutenants
Speaker 2: you know, accused him of bribery and all resigned in
Speaker 2: mass We left out when he was indicted on a
Speaker 2: on a you know, criminal charge. He continues to win,
Speaker 2: He continues to remain in this powerful position, and you know,
Speaker 2: might now be one of the standard bears for the
Speaker 2: party in Texas. James, you have been around, You may
Speaker 2: have been the person who pre wrote that twenty twenty
Speaker 2: three potential political obit How does he keep doing this?
Speaker 2: How does he keep surviving?
Speaker 4: Well, I think that Eleanor and I were talking about
Speaker 4: this before the podcast, when we're just kind of chit chatting.
Speaker 4: But there's this question about all of his legal troubles,
Speaker 4: his personal troubles, and I think I saw and someone's
Speaker 4: reporting that they likened his affairs and legal scandals to
Speaker 4: the president. And in a certain way you're talking about,
Speaker 4: you know, the Tea Party wave that started the shift
Speaker 4: from the Republican Party to this Texas I think started
Speaker 4: a lot of that, And there's all this this chicken
Speaker 4: and the egg question about the president and the role
Speaker 4: that he plays in this. But Ken Paxton rode that
Speaker 4: wave early, and I think he was on it before
Speaker 4: the president was, and so I think he is so
Speaker 4: tapped into Republican base voters. You know, in our reporter
Speaker 4: who was covering this for for Capital tonight on Spectrum News,
Speaker 4: she was talking to people and they were saying, like,
Speaker 4: we're voting for a politician, not a preacher, So we
Speaker 4: like the things that he does. In my reporting on
Speaker 4: Camp Paxton, for you guys, they would say, we don't
Speaker 4: care about his like moral qualms. He is doing the
Speaker 4: things that we like on abortion, on the border, on
Speaker 4: suing a big pharma. We've seen those kind of successes,
Speaker 4: and so people like his policies he goes where the
Speaker 4: base is going. Or yeah, he goes where the base
Speaker 4: is going. So I think that's why he has remained
Speaker 4: so popular with that base. I mean, he's just doing
Speaker 4: what they want him to do. Yeah.
Speaker 5: State Representative Shelley Luther said to The New York Times,
Speaker 5: you know, I'm picking a senator, not a husband, which
Speaker 5: is I think kind of sums up where a lot
Speaker 5: of people are. You know, they want someone who you
Speaker 5: know is going where the base is going and in
Speaker 5: some cases going you know, pushing that last little bit
Speaker 5: further that you know, other politicians aren't willing to push
Speaker 5: on these social issues.
Speaker 6: And I feel like the word I hear a lot
Speaker 6: is fighter, which is interesting because that's something really going
Speaker 6: on on the Democratic side. People are looking for these fighters,
Speaker 6: and they want change agents, and that's Ben Paxton's brand
Speaker 6: from the jump, and so I think that's when you
Speaker 6: talk to people, that's what speaks out about him. And
Speaker 6: he also has this populous streak. He just suited Lululemon, right,
Speaker 6: I mean, it's not the most traditional like business conservative
Speaker 6: at all. So I think that's part of the appeal
Speaker 6: to the.
Speaker 4: Fighter thing, especially because he just has not given an inch.
Speaker 4: I mean throughout the felony fraud charges, throughout the FBI
Speaker 4: accusations about impropriety and office, throughout the allegations of affairs,
Speaker 4: he has just not given an inch. He's just like
Speaker 4: pushed through it. Never really said sorry for any and
Speaker 4: never said, hey, I embarrassed my family or I embarrassed
Speaker 4: the voters, and you know, I promise to do better
Speaker 4: in the future. I embarrass my staff, Like he's not
Speaker 4: the state six six million dollars, Yes, impeachment put us through. Impeachment,
Speaker 4: We'll put him through. I can see why he doesn't
Speaker 4: say sorry for that. But you know, he just has
Speaker 4: dug in. And I think right now our politics is
Speaker 4: like the president. The president digs in, he's not going
Speaker 4: to give an inch. Ken Paxton doesn't give an inch.
Speaker 4: And that is, you know, to what Gabby was saying.
Speaker 4: That's what's so appealing to him for republic voters.
Speaker 2: For Republican voters, is the key message here, right. I mean,
Speaker 2: people compare him to Trump a lot due to the
Speaker 2: you know, legal history and some of the other criticisms
Speaker 2: that are laid against him that y'all just laid out.
Speaker 2: I mean, the big difference to me as someone just
Speaker 2: observing him.
Speaker 3: Is the.
Speaker 2: Charisma factor, right, Like Trump has this magnetism. You watch him,
Speaker 2: whether you love him or despise him. He's hard to
Speaker 2: look away from. You know, I watched Paxston's speech last night,
Speaker 2: and he I don't think he has that right, Like
Speaker 2: he was very clearly reading right like it was not
Speaker 2: this like you know, rile up the crowd, get everyone
Speaker 2: going type of thing that Trump does. It is, like
Speaker 2: you said, the fighter. But I guess the question that
Speaker 2: we're now going to ask is does that translate to
Speaker 2: the general election, because it's going to be a challenging
Speaker 2: general election for Republicans in Texas. So Gabby get Us
Speaker 2: started on previewing this race. What are we watching now?
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think the key is going to be we
Speaker 6: know that he appeals right to this Republican base electorate,
Speaker 6: and that's important if you can just you know, get
Speaker 6: the Republican base excited. That's kind of how Ted Cruz
Speaker 6: won in eighteen, right, was ginning up turnout in those
Speaker 6: heavily Republican areas to counteract the high democratic turnout. What's
Speaker 6: going to be interesting is does he appeal to independence?
Speaker 6: And he's obviously I think it's important to notepacks and
Speaker 6: write one statewide three times before, so he's not new
Speaker 6: to this. This is going to be by far the
Speaker 6: best funded, most you know, national interest in a campaign
Speaker 6: he's ever had. Democrats in DC are going to be
Speaker 6: closely watching, Republicans in DC are going to be closely watching.
Speaker 6: But I think, you know, last night he did sort
Speaker 6: of start to articulate a more affirmative vision if I
Speaker 6: think what he's going to offer on the campaign trail.
Speaker 6: You know, he did his his bid about tall Ico
Speaker 6: nicknames and all that. I mean, that was sort of
Speaker 6: the initial pivot right to the general. But he did
Speaker 6: say last night, you know, I want to earn your
Speaker 6: vote for people who are struggling to afford you know,
Speaker 6: their premium page, men struggling to afford housing. You know,
Speaker 6: I've taken on big pharma, like you mentioned, I've taken
Speaker 6: on big food. I'll take on big tech.
Speaker 5: You know.
Speaker 6: So there is sort of like a populist affirmative vision
Speaker 6: in addition to I'm going to pass the Trump Agenda
Speaker 6: and you know, just hammering on tall Rico. And I
Speaker 6: think it's going to be interesting how much he tries
Speaker 6: to stick to that versus more of the you know
Speaker 6: what we've seen out of the primary and in the
Speaker 6: runoff sort of bashing on the establishment.
Speaker 3: James.
Speaker 2: It is true he has won multiple general elections in Texas.
Speaker 2: It is also true that he has never gone up
Speaker 2: against someone in a race where he is the top
Speaker 2: billing at the ticket and where he's going up against
Speaker 2: someone who has is going to have a lot a
Speaker 2: lot of money to spend. Bringing up all these things
Speaker 2: in his past, you know, the Attorney General of Texas
Speaker 2: is a very high profile job to us, and those
Speaker 2: races are very high profile. They might be less so
Speaker 2: than to your average general election voter. What do you think,
Speaker 2: what's it like? How much should he be worried about that?
Speaker 4: About being at the top of the ticket, being the
Speaker 4: guy yeah.
Speaker 2: And being sort of having the full spotlight on him.
Speaker 4: No, I think he likes it. I think he enjoys it.
Speaker 4: I think he wants to be the guy. I mean,
Speaker 4: you would you don't run for you a senate because
Speaker 4: you want to shrink into yourself, right, I mean he
Speaker 4: wants to be the guy. I think in his head
Speaker 4: he believes he's been the guy. He believes that he's
Speaker 4: been the true Mago warrior. I don't think he would
Speaker 4: say this, but I think he probably believes it that
Speaker 4: he's more of a Mago warrior than some of the
Speaker 4: other statewides right, and the President has said that, he
Speaker 4: called him a true Mago warrior in his endorsement. So
Speaker 4: I don't think that Ken Paxton is going to shrink
Speaker 4: away from being the guy at the top of the ticket.
Speaker 4: I think to Gaby's point, he's a fighter. He's ready
Speaker 4: for that fight. He's already trying out these nicknames. I
Speaker 4: do think he's similar to the President in that he yes,
Speaker 4: he's a little awkward, he stumbles, he's clearly reading off
Speaker 4: a prompter. But you know what, voters don't really care.
Speaker 4: I mean, the President has proven that, Ken Paxton has
Speaker 4: proven that. I don't think they. I don't think the
Speaker 4: voters really care. They care are you fighting for their
Speaker 4: issues and are you get it done? And so far
Speaker 4: Texas voters have said he's getting it done. So I
Speaker 4: don't think he's going to shy away from being the guy.
Speaker 4: I don't think he's going to shy away from his
Speaker 4: conservative viewpoints and his conservative standpoints. I think that's where
Speaker 4: the issue is going to be Can James tall Rico
Speaker 4: do anything to win over those corn end voters, to
Speaker 4: win over those those moderate Republicans I guess, to win
Speaker 4: over independence because we think about these mythical independence out
Speaker 4: there in Texas and who are these mythical independence? These
Speaker 4: mythical independence are I'm sorry to say this, but they're
Speaker 4: more conservative than they are liberal, and so how does
Speaker 4: Tallarico win over those Independence? Is going to be interesting
Speaker 4: because he can he win over those can? I just
Speaker 4: I've been talking basketball a lot, and I think if
Speaker 4: you're a Republican voter, or if you're like one of
Speaker 4: these conservative independents, it's like me, I, as we have
Speaker 4: discussed on this podcast, A diehard Los Angeles Sakers fan.
Speaker 4: I love the Lakers. The Spurs are in the playoffs
Speaker 4: right now. I obviously have beef with the Spurs because
Speaker 4: we're Western Conference rivals. My friends here, I've lived here
Speaker 4: more than ten years. My friends are all San Antonio
Speaker 4: Spurs fans. I want to be happy for my friends.
Speaker 4: But am I going to root for the Spurs? No, Like,
Speaker 4: I'm not gonna. And that's that's what party affiliation is like.
Speaker 4: If you're a Republican You're not going to easily go
Speaker 4: vote for James Tallerico. If you're you consider yourself a
Speaker 4: conservative person, you're not going to easily go vote taller
Speaker 4: Ico's got to do something to appeal to them, or say,
Speaker 4: like this guy Ken Paxton is so bad that you've
Speaker 4: got to vote for me, and that argument has already
Speaker 4: been made. I just don't see how any more taller
Speaker 4: Rico does that except by bringing out new voters, those
Speaker 4: kind of corner voters that you were talking about Eleanor
Speaker 4: that like don't usually vote, don't get out there, Like
Speaker 4: that's what they've got to do. And I think it's
Speaker 4: it's a much taller order than I think we're giving
Speaker 4: credit for it.
Speaker 6: What if Talerico pulls up from three from the logo
Speaker 6: and hits.
Speaker 4: Up that's yes, yes, and that kind of converted me
Speaker 4: to the space and those Gabby are down ballot races.
Speaker 2: So the general election has begun. Both campaigns releasing their
Speaker 2: first general election ads this morning. Let's talk about Paxson's first,
Speaker 2: both of them not using the candidate's voice, but letting
Speaker 2: either their opponent or the news media talk for them.
Speaker 2: The first you hear of Tallerico and Paxson's ad is
Speaker 2: he's wearing a mask from the diis of a House
Speaker 2: committee room and he's saying there are more than two
Speaker 2: biological sexes.
Speaker 3: In fact, there are six.
Speaker 2: And then they're you know, they basically say, you know,
Speaker 2: this is Texas, this is not and James Talerico is
Speaker 2: the not in that list.
Speaker 3: We're going to see a lot of this.
Speaker 5: We're great for tell Rico. I'll be honest, right, Like,
Speaker 5: I think that there's a lot of stuff that they
Speaker 5: have already started teeing up that I think will really
Speaker 5: stick with voters. Like I think that there are I mean,
Speaker 5: I think that there are six genders. The God is
Speaker 5: non binary. You know we were saying this before, Like
Speaker 5: you can get into a real theological argument to explain
Speaker 5: why you believe God is non binary. And by the
Speaker 5: time you are explaining that you are have lost the election,
Speaker 5: Like people have walked off that you are talking to.
Speaker 5: And it's not that you know you're inherently wrong, it's
Speaker 5: that God is non binary is going to stick in
Speaker 5: the head of a lot of voters.
Speaker 4: It just sounds funny to people. It just sounds.
Speaker 6: Like it memorable.
Speaker 4: It's memorable.
Speaker 5: It sounds like the worst thing people imagine about Democrats.
Speaker 4: And you send your kid off to college and then
Speaker 4: they come back all woe.
Speaker 5: You have to sit there listen to them saying God's
Speaker 5: non binary again, like there's nuance in all of this.
Speaker 5: And I think James Talerico will have a we'll have
Speaker 5: the work of either explaining all of that or just
Speaker 5: like doing the Paxton and just muscling through and presenting
Speaker 5: his own vision of you know, forget forget about that.
Speaker 5: What he's doing is so much worse.
Speaker 2: I mean, this was the Ted Cruz versus Colin all
Speaker 2: Red playbook, right, the focusing on you know, gender issues,
Speaker 2: calling your opponent woke for all read, it was women's
Speaker 2: sports and and you know it was like, right, like
Speaker 2: a clip.
Speaker 6: Of it was like a football play looked like all
Speaker 6: Red tackling a little girl and he got crushed in
Speaker 6: that election.
Speaker 2: It was a very different time. But I think the
Speaker 2: big question is.
Speaker 4: It's not that different. It was like two years ago, well.
Speaker 5: Right, there was Trump on the ticket. You know, It's like, yeah,
Speaker 5: it was.
Speaker 2: A very different climate for Republicans, right. I think I
Speaker 2: think Republicans two years ago, when Texas had the wind
Speaker 2: at their back. They might still have the wind of
Speaker 2: their back structurally, but you know, there are a lot
Speaker 2: of reasons. Whether it's the economy, whether it's because the
Speaker 2: midterm elections tend to not go as well for the
Speaker 2: party that holds the White House. You know, we'll see
Speaker 2: and do people want to talk about things like that
Speaker 2: when you know gas prices are over four dollars or
Speaker 2: all those other things. That's the big question.
Speaker 4: I think people will. I think people will, and they
Speaker 4: will because the Republicans want to talk about it. It's
Speaker 4: all about messaging, messaging, messaging, and the Republicans are good
Speaker 4: at messaging. Notice we weren't talking about immigration or border
Speaker 4: security to this selection cycle. We were talking about the
Speaker 4: Sharia law. Whether or not that is a big issue
Speaker 4: here in Texas, that is actually something at the forefront
Speaker 4: or it's an imagined fear that people have, but the
Speaker 4: Republican messaging on it got people out to the polls,
Speaker 4: It got people really really engaged. This is the same thing.
Speaker 4: People underestimate how strong of a motivating factor fear is.
Speaker 4: And the interesting thing for me is how tall Rico
Speaker 4: responds to it. You can see from his messaging already
Speaker 4: starting last night that they are going to be much
Speaker 4: more aggressive than say beadl Urke was in twenty eighteen
Speaker 4: against Ted Cruz. I mean they put out the mugshot.
Speaker 4: They said, this is who this guy is. He's been indicted,
Speaker 4: he's cheated on his wife, blah blah blah. He's going
Speaker 4: at him again though those things have already been said.
Speaker 4: And so what else does tall Rico have, Like what
Speaker 4: other messaging does he have? And how does he counteract
Speaker 4: this stuff about like God is non binary, there's six
Speaker 4: genders because and especially with like transgender kids in sports,
Speaker 4: that's a tough issue for people like I mean, if
Speaker 4: you talk to parents, it is a tough And that's
Speaker 4: what Colin already got crushed on. James Talerico voted against
Speaker 4: that bill, and so and Paxson's already pushing on that.
Speaker 4: So how does he respond? And it's to the point
Speaker 4: that Eleanor was making, It's like, I'm an Austin state representative.
Speaker 4: I voted my district and now I'm going to look
Speaker 4: forward and we're going to look at the bigger picture here,
Speaker 4: Like how does he respond to that? I'm curious to
Speaker 4: see what he actually does.
Speaker 6: I do think two things are true, though I think
Speaker 6: culture war definitely that stuff definitely worked in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 6: But I do still think the economy, right was the
Speaker 6: biggest issue for voters and still is the biggest issue
Speaker 6: for voters. And this is now a republican economy rather
Speaker 6: than a democratic economy, even if a lot of the
Speaker 6: fundamentals remain the same, right, So that's going to be
Speaker 6: part of it.
Speaker 4: A but B.
Speaker 6: I think what's interesting is that it's not sort of
Speaker 6: culture war traditionally, but tall Rico talks about a sort
Speaker 6: of culture of corruption, and that's almost his cultural message,
Speaker 6: and paston being the nominee fits pretty easily within what
Speaker 6: he's already saying about. The divide isn't left right, it's
Speaker 6: top bottom and you have corrupt politicians. And he's already
Speaker 6: sort of made that pivot. And so if I think
Speaker 6: tal Rico's goal is going to be to sort of
Speaker 6: fold culture into the economic situation that people are already feeling,
Speaker 6: Paxton's goal is going to be look at this Austin liberal. Yeah,
Speaker 6: like you're saying, I mean, this guy's not Texas values,
Speaker 6: and so in an economy where people are, you know,
Speaker 6: consistently expressing frustration and where Republicans are now in charge.
Speaker 6: I think we'll see the extent to which Culture Wars
Speaker 6: still plays. I think it still plays, but not as
Speaker 6: much as twenty.
Speaker 4: You saw Paxton talk start talking about the economy last night,
Speaker 4: which is.
Speaker 3: Champion.
Speaker 5: What I care about is rent prices, and you're like,
Speaker 5: this is new, Okay. Yeah.
Speaker 2: I will add that those ads against already have taken
Speaker 2: on somewhat of a mythical status in the past two years.
Speaker 2: It is also true that already outpaced Kamala Harris at
Speaker 2: the top of the ticket by what four to six percentage?
Speaker 4: Kamala Harris is the California Senator. Yeah, no kidding.
Speaker 5: I was gonna say, like, I do think to your
Speaker 5: point about like Ken Paxton's charisma, right is like I
Speaker 5: think that Ken Paxton, I assume his backers are assuming
Speaker 5: that they can put together a thing where I mean,
Speaker 5: I've seen him talk to Republican groups and like to
Speaker 5: a friendly audience. He's pretty good. Like he can like
Speaker 5: paint this very compelling fear vision, like you said, about
Speaker 5: these issues he cares about. And then I bet we
Speaker 5: don't hear from Ken Paxton directly.
Speaker 4: Guys, just Ken Paxton come in a trip fest, just
Speaker 4: announce it right now. God, I.
Speaker 5: No, but like I think like we're going to hear
Speaker 5: Ken Paxton is going to be putting James Talerico's voice
Speaker 5: out there, and James Talerico is gonna be putting Ken
Speaker 5: Paxton's voice out there, and it's just going to be like,
Speaker 5: you know, sort of each running on the other's words.
Speaker 6: And for Republicans, if you can't get your voters excited
Speaker 6: about a positive vision, and that's always hard in a
Speaker 6: midterm year when you're a party controls the White House.
Speaker 6: Can you get them excited about beating the other guy?
Speaker 6: Can you get them sort of negatively polarized to say, Okay,
Speaker 6: you know, we just can't have that guy. And I
Speaker 6: think that's clearly what they're going to be pushing.
Speaker 2: My favorite development last night was you saw a lot
Speaker 2: of people calling Tallerico a vegan, right to the extent.
Speaker 4: That it's vagan actually yes, to the.
Speaker 2: Extent that Tolrigo has like had to put out like
Speaker 2: a picture of him eating a turkey leg. You know,
Speaker 2: like this is the like the defensive response that we
Speaker 2: have here, but also.
Speaker 5: Everyone saying like he's a vegan because he ordered a potato,
Speaker 5: egg and cheese taco, which speaks the fact I don't
Speaker 5: think people know what vegan is.
Speaker 4: It's also but.
Speaker 2: Also there, I mean, there was in this ad that
Speaker 2: they put out this morning, they have him talking about
Speaker 2: how he his like campaign is going meatless and how
Speaker 2: he's you know, like there's some things there that I mean,
Speaker 2: of course, yeah, I don't want to I'm you know,
Speaker 2: I will defend the potato, egg and cheese taco, you know,
Speaker 2: and just like a great breakfast talker orders you know.
Speaker 2: But but but this is what it's going to be,
Speaker 2: you know, the he's he's he's woke and he's weird.
Speaker 3: That is the messaging.
Speaker 4: Pallas So I was joking about the tripst thing. But
Speaker 4: like taller Rico is, tall Rico is going on all
Speaker 4: the podcasts, He's going on Joe Rogan, tall Rico went
Speaker 4: on Fox News before. I'm sure he probably will try
Speaker 4: to go again. Ken Paxton as of now, is not
Speaker 4: regularly showing up on CNN, He's not regularly showing up
Speaker 4: on MSNBC. He's not showing up on these quote unquote
Speaker 4: legacy or mainstream outlets. If we start seeing him show
Speaker 4: up on those Outslet's I think that tells us something like, Okay,
Speaker 4: there is some kind of hesitation about how comfortable his
Speaker 4: numbers are. But as of now, if he's not showing
Speaker 4: up on those, I'm I'm still thinking that they feel
Speaker 4: pretty confident that the Republican voter base in Texas, which
Speaker 4: is larger than the Democratic base, we have to we
Speaker 4: have to say that's just the reality until until he
Speaker 4: starts showing up on those things, Like I don't really
Speaker 4: think like it is like a full on race, and
Speaker 4: if he starts showing up on them, I am curious
Speaker 4: to see, like how good is he going to because
Speaker 4: as you said, he's he's a little bit awkward. He
Speaker 4: hasn't been battle tested in uh competitive races like other
Speaker 4: statewides have, so that will be interesting for me.
Speaker 2: So tell Rico's ad, of course, was a bunch of
Speaker 2: news reports about the Paxson impeachment and the various allegations
Speaker 2: against him, including you know, some commentary from some Fox
Speaker 2: News folks, you know, also Tall Rico's voice owning there,
Speaker 2: And I mean, I think what we're seeing is that
Speaker 2: this race is going to be negative, right, It's going
Speaker 2: to be brutal. I think on both sides going after
Speaker 2: each other and they're going to spend a lot of
Speaker 2: energy trying to, you know, tear the other person down.
Speaker 3: Is funny.
Speaker 2: Someone put on Twitter last night before the votes were
Speaker 2: counted some of the old campaign ads from the two
Speaker 2: thousand and two Senate election, Cornin's first one, and it
Speaker 2: was just like I was like bowled over at how
Speaker 2: quaint they were. You know, Cornin's like talking about his work,
Speaker 2: you know, for enforcing child support in the AG's office
Speaker 2: and like suing you know, big medical companies to give
Speaker 2: seniors access. Ron Kirk is up there talking about how
Speaker 2: Dallas is considered by many the most conservative city in Texas,
Speaker 2: and he brought people together, and I just, you know,
Speaker 2: I don't think that's going to be the tone we're
Speaker 2: going to be seen from these these candidates in the
Speaker 2: general this time around. Let's I want to talk about
Speaker 2: some of the other races, but we got to talk
Speaker 2: about corn In a little bit too, right, A very
Speaker 2: long you know, that was twenty twenty and two, twenty
Speaker 2: four years ago, A long career, and it seems as
Speaker 2: though Gabby the Republican Party kind of passed him by right.
Speaker 4: It's yeah.
Speaker 6: I mean I think I wrote my story yesterday. He
Speaker 6: you know, came to Washington in the Bush era, He
Speaker 6: survived the Tea Party, he survived the first Trump era,
Speaker 6: and not just survived, I mean he was the Senate
Speaker 6: Republican whip during Trump's first term when a lot of
Speaker 6: his contemporaries, these sort of elder statesman types retired because
Speaker 6: they didn't want to be a part of it anymore.
Speaker 6: And what he couldn't survive, right was Ken Paxton. And
Speaker 6: so it's just sort of an interesting end for someone
Speaker 6: who had never lost an election. Was really well respected
Speaker 6: in Washington because a you know, he was someone who
Speaker 6: could talk to everyone in the Senate. He could talk
Speaker 6: to Democrats, he could you know, sort of look for
Speaker 6: areas of biparties, an interesting common ground and be He
Speaker 6: was like a very loyal Republican. He was a conservative guy.
Speaker 6: He chaired the NRSC At one point, he raised I
Speaker 6: think over four hundred million his contemporaries. That's the easiest
Speaker 6: way to make friends in your conference, right, just raised
Speaker 6: a bunch of money for them. So he had a
Speaker 6: lot of friends, and you saw a lot of disappointment
Speaker 6: when that Trump endorsement came down, and I think you
Speaker 6: will see when the Senate comes back next week continue
Speaker 6: disappointment you even saw. I mean the Senate went home
Speaker 6: rather than past their reconciliation bill that's you know, very
Speaker 6: easily approved along party lines because of differences with the
Speaker 6: White House over this January Safe Weaponization fund and over
Speaker 6: the ballroom. And I think they were the Senate was
Speaker 6: much more poised to just say we'll deal with this
Speaker 6: later because they were frustrated at the White House and
Speaker 6: endorsing against Cornyn was one of the main reasons. He's
Speaker 6: their guy, and it's you know, yeah, it just shows
Speaker 6: that how much the party has changed in the era
Speaker 6: in which he has been powerful in a party that
Speaker 6: you know, he'll be the first to say he helped build.
Speaker 2: It feels like it's this is another piece of evidence
Speaker 2: that if people don't feel if you're if people in
Speaker 2: that activist wing of the Republican Party don't feel in
Speaker 2: their heart that you're one of them, it's really hard
Speaker 2: to convince them that you are. And you know, Corny's
Speaker 2: been working against that for you know, a decade now,
Speaker 2: and I.
Speaker 5: Do think it just affirms I think what we've known
Speaker 5: and the is the pathron, which is that like any
Speaker 5: compromise with the other party is a problem, and I
Speaker 5: think we're seeing that, particularly from Republicans. I think you
Speaker 5: hear that though on both sides of like, you know,
Speaker 5: the political obituary we did run for Cornin's career, you know,
Speaker 5: starts with the fact that he managed to after the
Speaker 5: Uvulde shooting, helped negotiate one of like the first meaningful
Speaker 5: gun reform bills in eons, and he was greeted for
Speaker 5: what you know, really is like like a landmark victory
Speaker 5: of his time in the Senate by being booed for
Speaker 5: several minutes at the Texas GOP conference because he was
Speaker 5: just like, you know, even though it was a measure
Speaker 5: that the majority of you know, Americans agreed on, was
Speaker 5: just seen as like, how dare you work with the
Speaker 5: Democrats to try to get something on gun control?
Speaker 4: So it's hard to it's hard to fake it. And
Speaker 4: in politics, it's about authenticity, and it's what you're saying,
Speaker 4: Matthew like he had a hard time telling the base
Speaker 4: that he was one of them because he's not one
Speaker 4: of them. He is a two thousand and two George W.
Speaker 4: Bush compassionate conservativesm Republican.
Speaker 5: A deal maker and a compromiser, yes.
Speaker 4: But that's also to say it's like when people were
Speaker 4: saying that Dustin Burrows is a liberal. These guys are
Speaker 4: not liberals in any way. They are very rock hard conservatives,
Speaker 4: but they are not They're not going to bend the
Speaker 4: knee every single time to Trump. And that was the issue.
Speaker 4: You know, the President said it in his endorsement. Ken
Speaker 4: Paxton is a true MAGA warrior. He's been loyal to me.
Speaker 4: John Cornyn is a good man, but he was not
Speaker 4: with me when times were tough, and that is his
Speaker 4: I think mortal or original sin because he wasn't with Trump.
Speaker 5: No matter how many photos you post reading the art
Speaker 5: of the deal, it's hard to come back from that.
Speaker 6: It's also like, what's your metric for success? Like for
Speaker 6: senators like Cornan, it's did I pass legislation? Did I
Speaker 6: influence this bill behind the scenes to make sure you
Speaker 6: know Texas got disaster recovery funds or whatever? Like did
Speaker 6: I run good constituent services? It's not sexy, what's you know?
Speaker 6: These Republican voters. I think it's more did I make
Speaker 6: the left mad? Did I fight? You know, did I
Speaker 6: sue Joe Biden? And it's just a mismatch between what
Speaker 6: your metric for successes, I think, and what the old
Speaker 6: ways were and the cornn style and what the Packston
Speaker 6: style is.
Speaker 4: Hey, you put it in your story as it's a
Speaker 4: it's an era of like just deep partisanship, and that
Speaker 4: is not a role that Cornyn plays well. And in
Speaker 4: Kayla's story, he's the last of the gentleman Republican and
Speaker 4: it's just a no holds barred kind of situation now,
Speaker 4: and he just was not a fit for who the
Speaker 4: conservative base wants, which is that fighter impact.
Speaker 6: And it's funny, like, I mean, you could ask Senate
Speaker 6: Democrats who were there during the Obama era when Cornan
Speaker 6: was also the whip, if they would say he definitely
Speaker 6: stood against us, right, they say he stemied our priority
Speaker 6: and when the Senate flipped control in the Obama era.
Speaker 6: But that's so long ago, right, and it's different, and
Speaker 6: what they're it's not just stopping you know, left wing priorities.
Speaker 6: It's like actively taking.
Speaker 3: The fight to them.
Speaker 6: I think that people are looking for.
Speaker 4: Well, listen, four terms, he did a heck of a
Speaker 4: lot as you said, I think you do have to
Speaker 4: sort of uh recognize the impact that John Cornyon has
Speaker 4: had on Texas and now he now it's interesting to
Speaker 4: see what he does with the remaining months. Does he
Speaker 4: does he join the Yolo That is the question. Yeah.
Speaker 6: I mean, we saw Senator Cassidy from Louisiana, who finished
Speaker 6: third in a primary, and he, you know, took the
Speaker 6: really I think like fatal wound step of voting to
Speaker 6: convict Trump in the second impeachment, which obviously Cornan never did.
Speaker 6: But Cassidy lost that primary, and the very next week
Speaker 6: he voted for the War Powers Resolution on Iran with
Speaker 6: Democrats and a handful of Republicans and it passed for
Speaker 6: the first time. So I don't know, Corna doesn't strike
Speaker 6: me as someone who's just gonna throw caution to the wind.
Speaker 6: But you know, I if there's close votes votes, I
Speaker 6: could see people keeping a closer eye on him. I
Speaker 6: could see you know, him saying, well, I need to
Speaker 6: think about it. But the Yolo Caucus is definitely alive
Speaker 6: and thriving. In the Senate, it's fifty three forty seven,
Speaker 6: so you only need four Republicans and they've got four
Speaker 6: even without corn In pretty much.
Speaker 5: And on the House side, we saw TMC had a
Speaker 5: photo of Thomas Massey and Marjorie Taylor Green together in
Speaker 5: Costa Rica. So maybe that's where Cornan's off to, you know,
Speaker 5: he's a that's the real Yolo Caucus.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I feel like there's this sort of
Speaker 2: like liberal fantasy that Cornin's gonna like tear the mask
Speaker 2: off and like become a vegan with James tell Erico
Speaker 2: and you know, endorse him and vote.
Speaker 5: Against that John McCain.
Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, we have a.
Speaker 2: Lot of evidence that Cornin is a conservative guy, and
Speaker 2: maybe not as conservative as Texas runoff voters would like
Speaker 2: him to be, or maybe not as temperamentally conservative, but
Speaker 2: it's hard to imagine him just like burning the place down.
Speaker 6: There's also, like the sun is not going to do
Speaker 6: that much for the next seven months in a midterm year,
Speaker 6: So I don't think that's gonna be that many like
Speaker 6: dramatic vote opportunities.
Speaker 4: But we'll say, but it's.
Speaker 5: Also hard to imagine him being like one of Ken
Speaker 5: Paxton's strongest campaigners or endorsers.
Speaker 4: I think he is sport the ticket. He's gonna support
Speaker 4: the ticket.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, all right, so let's talk about some of
Speaker 2: these other races. Maga Mays Middleton, Mega Maze coming away
Speaker 2: with a ten point victory over chip Roy.
Speaker 3: Eleanor you know.
Speaker 5: I think this race again affirmed the idea that like
Speaker 5: allegiance to Trump is what matters to the base. I think, uh,
Speaker 5: chip Roy really came in the runoff outspent Mays Middleton
Speaker 5: on ads, which is a real upset from the primary
Speaker 5: where Mays Middleton just like wallpapered every television in America
Speaker 5: with ads about his relationship with President Trump. But it just,
Speaker 5: I mean, it wasn't enough. I think that chip Roy
Speaker 5: is also sort of has that independent streak is you know,
Speaker 5: he has said that Trump engage an impeachable conduct. On
Speaker 5: January sixth, he said that he campaigned for Ron DeSantis.
Speaker 5: I think he has tried to sort of carve this
Speaker 5: independent path for himself and then also come election time
Speaker 5: come back and say, like, but of course, ideologically I
Speaker 5: am identical, you know, with Mays Middleton or with President Trump,
Speaker 5: and like, don't you want an independent to be you know,
Speaker 5: someone with like a little bit of fealty to Texas
Speaker 5: not to the President, to be your attorney General and
Speaker 5: the answer was no, we want someone with fealty to
Speaker 5: the president. And yeah, mays Middleton only cost him seventeen
Speaker 5: million dollars. But what, there's no price.
Speaker 6: Too high as chief compared to the center is yeah, exactly, yeah,
Speaker 6: but all out of one guy's pocket, right, yeah.
Speaker 3: All right.
Speaker 2: My favorite race railroad Commissioner. This was the one close
Speaker 2: race of the night, at least from the state wide perspective.
Speaker 2: The Associated Press called it this morning Beau French winning. He,
Speaker 2: when I just recently looked, had fifty point six percent
Speaker 2: of the vote forty nine point for the incumbent Jim Right.
Speaker 2: This is Boufrench who has called for one hundred million
Speaker 2: people to be deported from the US. That's nearly a
Speaker 2: third of the country's population. This is the Beau French
Speaker 2: who was endorsed or was not endorsed. His opponent was
Speaker 2: endorsed by Dan Patrick, Greg Abbott, other prominent leaders. Dan Patrick,
Speaker 2: in fact, less than a year ago, called on him
Speaker 2: to resign as Arran County GOP chair, saying, quote, anti
Speaker 2: Semitism and religious bigotry have no place in Texas. This
Speaker 2: is after he put a poll up on Twitter asking
Speaker 2: who was worse for America Jews or Muslim.
Speaker 3: Jews are Muslims? You know.
Speaker 2: The question that we asked in the run up to
Speaker 2: the election was is can you run too far to
Speaker 2: the right even for Texas runoff? The answer, it seems
Speaker 2: is no, at least.
Speaker 5: By a narrow margin.
Speaker 3: No.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Greg Abbott seemed to come out and sort of back
Speaker 2: him today saying, you know we're going to be united
Speaker 2: up and down the ticket. Do you this is this
Speaker 2: is a really hard We talked about Attorney General being
Speaker 2: a hard race to break through. Railroad Commissioner. Most people
Speaker 2: don't even know what it does. It regulates the only
Speaker 2: gas industry in Texas. That's going to be really hard
Speaker 2: to break through too. Is this anything that Republicans should
Speaker 2: be concerned about.
Speaker 4: I think you saw what the Ken Paxton race, the
Speaker 4: Big three immediately coming out and saying we've got to
Speaker 4: get behind Ken Paxton because they are worried about Republican unity.
Speaker 4: For the reasons that we have discussed. There's you know,
Speaker 4: the economy is slowing down, it's not great, gas prices
Speaker 4: are up, there's backlash to the president. There's there's a
Speaker 4: Republican president of the White House, they see the tea leaves,
Speaker 4: so they they know that it's going to be a
Speaker 4: rough mid term election and that they all need to
Speaker 4: be on the same page so that they can sort
Speaker 4: of blunt the effect of that hit. I guess I
Speaker 4: think it's going to be the same thing down ballot,
Speaker 4: where you've got to just kind of just swallow that
Speaker 4: very tough pill and say we're going to get behind
Speaker 4: both French because we've got to be united. But it's
Speaker 4: not going to be their favorite thing. I mean, Governor Abbott,
Speaker 4: who is the most popular statewide in the state, has
Speaker 4: been for years. He's going to have to work with
Speaker 4: probably Don Helfines as his state controller unless there a
Speaker 4: cart can pull off a very interesting upset, and potentially
Speaker 4: with both French as his railroad commissioner, two guys who
Speaker 4: are very very far to the right and who have
Speaker 4: been critical and who have not been on the same
Speaker 4: page all the time. But what it says that they
Speaker 4: have that unity is that they recognize the headwinds coming
Speaker 4: at them and they're saying, we've got to be prepared.
Speaker 4: This cannot be twenty eighteen all over again. We've got
Speaker 4: to be on the same page.
Speaker 5: I mean, and I will say I got so many
Speaker 5: text messages from Jim Rights campaign. I also got a
Speaker 5: lot from Bauf French's campaign basically, but none of the
Speaker 5: Jim Right ones. We're saying like, guess what he said
Speaker 5: about you know, Muslims. Guess what he said about Jewish people.
Speaker 5: Guess what he said about you know, deportations. Guess what
Speaker 5: he said about naturalized citizens. All of them were you know,
Speaker 5: I was saying like we were. I mean, Jim Wright
Speaker 5: was saying like, well, I'm also concerned about Islamophobia, Like
Speaker 5: don't get that one on over me. And it's like,
Speaker 5: I think that the it's so clear from this, even
Speaker 5: if like beau French had lost, let's say by you know,
Speaker 5: a point or two, that the party this race, to me,
Speaker 5: more than anything, exemplifies how far the party has moved
Speaker 5: or is willing to accept on these you know, culture
Speaker 5: war issues that Boufrench weather. I mean, he did win
Speaker 5: by an inch, but also he was like setting the
Speaker 5: tone for this race from the beginning.
Speaker 6: And I feel like I've heard from pessimists and both
Speaker 6: parties about this, where I've seen Republicans say this is
Speaker 6: our worst statewide candidate are most likely lose and they're worried.
Speaker 6: John Rosenthal the Democrats like a very normy engineer guy.
Speaker 6: And then I've seen Democrats say it's just too far
Speaker 6: down the ballot and if anything is ever going to
Speaker 6: flip in the state, it would have to be the
Speaker 6: top of the ticket because that's where the attention is
Speaker 6: going to be.
Speaker 4: And that's their whole job. That's their whole job. That's
Speaker 4: their whole job.
Speaker 5: That's like, sure Jewish someone could educate the vote to attack.
Speaker 4: The most vulnerable person on the ballot. Yeah, you've got
Speaker 4: a guy who's saying who's worst for the country, Jews
Speaker 4: or Muslims. That's the that's TDP's whole job. That's the
Speaker 4: party's job. That's what are we talking about.
Speaker 2: It takes a lot of money, though, I mean, you know,
Speaker 2: the state of thirty million people, five major media markets.
Speaker 2: You got to get the word out, and you know,
Speaker 2: this is one where you've got to grab people's attentions
Speaker 2: to get.
Speaker 4: The word out.
Speaker 6: And you have a race that like the name of
Speaker 6: the office isn't even what it does. So I think
Speaker 6: like the voter education is going to be tough on that.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that's giving them a lot of credit.
Speaker 4: I mean, these guys were begging for vulnerable candidates. You've
Speaker 4: got vulnerable candidates, and I think to to, I guess
Speaker 4: this is what we're talking about. Democrats have tried to
Speaker 4: convince us here in state and the country at large
Speaker 4: that Texas is the largest battle ground state in the country. Yes,
Speaker 4: we are going to find out if it's actually a
Speaker 4: battleground state or if it's what I think I have
Speaker 4: believed it to be, which is a more red state
Speaker 4: that could be a little bit bluer. But this is it.
Speaker 4: I mean, look at the slate. It's people who the
Speaker 4: Republican establishment didn't want to put on the ballot because
Speaker 4: they thought that that would be a very difficult race.
Speaker 3: In November.
Speaker 4: You got camp Pax and you got Done hoof Fines,
Speaker 4: you got both French. Those are your ideal candidates if
Speaker 4: you're a Democrat trying to sneak up on them. So
Speaker 4: the Democrats have to sort of do their job, make
Speaker 4: it at least close, because if it's not at least close,
Speaker 4: I think that's going to be trouble. I mean, you
Speaker 4: think you have a hard time getting funded right now
Speaker 4: if you don't get close this time you're not you're
Speaker 4: not going to see any money for a while.
Speaker 5: Well, and like I mean they demcrats very proudly, like
Speaker 5: they filled every single you know, they've got a challenger
Speaker 5: in every single race. And it's like why are you
Speaker 5: doing that if not to be building voter awareness and
Speaker 5: like if you can't take a run at boat fringe,
Speaker 5: then like what are you doing?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 4: But is this where we're getting to Like I think
Speaker 4: what's going to be interesting is that Downbaut effects on
Speaker 4: the congressional races and on the Texas House races, because
Speaker 4: I think they are actually concerned about the Texas House.
Speaker 4: Dan Patrick's concerned about the Texas House. Gadson said, we're
Speaker 4: going to keep it. We're going to keep it. But
Speaker 4: you've got to say that if you're the speaker, because
Speaker 4: you want to keep that gabble.
Speaker 2: It's funny because now we're treat you were the skeptical
Speaker 2: on the packs, the skeptic in the Paxston tell Rico,
Speaker 2: and now I'm going to become the skeptic on the House.
Speaker 2: I mean, you know they didn't do it in twenty
Speaker 2: eighteen and these are very different district boundaries. Then I mean,
Speaker 2: to me the map of flipping the house feels like
Speaker 2: extremely challenging up to the realm of maybe impossible.
Speaker 5: But also I mean, if I'm Democrats, I'm going to
Speaker 5: hit the point that if they don't flip the house
Speaker 5: or get very close to flipping the house, Republicans are
Speaker 5: going to redraw those maps and it is game over
Speaker 5: for you know, Democrats to ever retake the house.
Speaker 4: Ever we should see. I think I'm with you, Matthew,
Speaker 4: like I think taking the house is probably a bridge
Speaker 4: too far. I mean, the districts are drawn the way
Speaker 4: that the districts are drawn, but I think that there
Speaker 4: are gains to be made for the Democrats. Obviously, One
Speaker 4: eighteen in San Antonio obviously is a big target for
Speaker 4: them because Luhan is out. Christian Caranza, who ran last
Speaker 4: time against Luhan and had a pretty close race, she's
Speaker 4: running again and she knows where to knock on doors.
Speaker 4: I think that's going to be interesting. You've got those
Speaker 4: like sort of South Texas races with Janie Lopez and
Speaker 4: San Benito Denise Bolobos. I think if you look at
Speaker 4: the bets that Republicans have made on Latino voters, Latino
Speaker 4: voters have started swinging away from the president and away
Speaker 4: from Republican policies because of backlash to economic policies. Economy
Speaker 4: again is like teetering. I mean, I don't think it's
Speaker 4: terrible here in Texas obviously, but those gas prices are high, huh,
Speaker 4: and of groceries are high. So Latinos are that are
Speaker 4: concerned about that as all voters are. Latinos are just
Speaker 4: voters like everybody else, and they're also concerned. And this
Speaker 4: is where it hits Latino voters more about the immigration crackdown,
Speaker 4: because that is an issue that does impact Latinos much more.
Speaker 4: Because even in Texas, I mean, there are many, many
Speaker 4: mixed status families where there's one person who's a US
Speaker 4: citizen and another person's undocumented. You're seeing these terrible stories
Speaker 4: about this eighteen year old here in Austin, the high
Speaker 4: school student who got detained by ice on his way
Speaker 4: home from a shift. That Louisiana Popeye's Kitchen. They're Popeyes
Speaker 4: Louisiana Kitchen in same to describe Popeyes.
Speaker 1: But keep going.
Speaker 4: Popeye's Louisiana Kitchen. That's what it's cool. What's cool, keep
Speaker 4: going and you on the the other thing about these
Speaker 4: like little kids from Venezuela who got taken out the
Speaker 4: bus stop like these are the people stories like this.
Speaker 4: These are the people who theoretically Republicans and Conservatives want
Speaker 4: in the country, want to give asylum to. They are
Speaker 4: the people fighting Nicholas Maduro's regime, just like the president.
Speaker 4: And so if you keep seeing those stories, I think
Speaker 4: that will have an impact. And that's going to have
Speaker 4: an impact in South Texas in the congressional races, which
Speaker 4: I know are kind of still super trumpy districts, but
Speaker 4: with so much headwinds that.
Speaker 5: They weren't twenty twenty four.
Speaker 4: You know, it's like, yeah, it comes down to I
Speaker 4: think that's gonna be interesting.
Speaker 6: I also think the suburbs are worth looking at because
Speaker 6: these are like the corn In areas, right, I mean,
Speaker 6: the sort of more highly educated, upper class suburbs. What
Speaker 6: do these voters do And if you're a state rep there,
Speaker 6: do you have to have a brand that's independent of
Speaker 6: Trump and Paxton? And can you do that if Trump
Speaker 6: and Paxston are in the news every day? So I
Speaker 6: think those are some like state house type seats to
Speaker 6: watch too.
Speaker 4: And Gabby, that's such a great point because we can say,
Speaker 4: taller Rico has been just a state Rep. But Tallerico's
Speaker 4: a state Rep. From Williamson County originally. I know he
Speaker 4: moved to Austin, but he's originally from Williamson County in
Speaker 4: the suburbs. He knows how to win those districts, and
Speaker 4: he will, I think, will go to the suburbs and
Speaker 4: he'll boost those House candidates, those congressional candidates in those races,
Speaker 4: give them that. So I think really that's what's really
Speaker 4: at play. You would think if you're the Texas Democrats,
Speaker 4: that you want to hit one of these vulnerable candidates statewide,
Speaker 4: but really what's at play, I think is lower down the.
Speaker 3: Belt also, just you know, shrinking those merchants, right.
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, we know one issue that is
Speaker 2: likely to come up because the Republican delegation went up
Speaker 2: to Washington, d C. And talked to Stephen Miller, is
Speaker 2: you know, pressure to reverse player v DO and you know,
Speaker 2: not provide public education to undocumented students in Texas. That's
Speaker 2: a you know, a major major issue that I'll be
Speaker 2: up next legislative session. I think there are probably some
Speaker 2: Republicans who would vote against it. And if you're a
Speaker 2: Democrat and you care about that issue, you want to
Speaker 2: shrink those as much as possible.
Speaker 4: Can I just say one more thing, because I think
Speaker 4: I was a little bit down on those state wides
Speaker 4: for the for the Democrats. But you got to talk
Speaker 4: about Nathan Johnson running for AG there against Mace Middleton
Speaker 4: talking about AG again, Well, I think we just got
Speaker 4: to give him some some do I mean, this is
Speaker 4: a good guy who flipped a Dallas district in the
Speaker 4: Senate that had been Republican for decades. District took out
Speaker 4: Don Huff finds who's back now, and he knows how
Speaker 4: to he knows how to flip, he knows how to
Speaker 4: flip something. So I think there's some credit to be
Speaker 4: given there. He's obviously a very smart guy. He knows
Speaker 4: May's Middleton because they've been in the Senate together. And
Speaker 4: I think Nathan Johnson could probably raise a good amount
Speaker 4: of money and I'm curious to see how that goes.
Speaker 4: Probably if you look down ballot from Tall Rico, I
Speaker 4: think Nathan Johnson probably has the better chance, I guess
Speaker 4: because he's the smart guy and May's Middleton is one
Speaker 4: of those who's like so far to the right that
Speaker 4: it could could be a race if if, if all
Speaker 4: things go, Democrats, wait, as he's the best case scenario
Speaker 4: that you guys are presenting.
Speaker 5: Well, and I think like Middleton too, when you were
Speaker 5: listing like these bolt like the sort of worst case scenarios, right,
Speaker 5: they were very worried about Paxton being vulnerable. They're worried
Speaker 5: about hut fines, They're worried about bo French. I think
Speaker 5: they's Middleton in is you know, not maybe it's not
Speaker 5: as contentious, but like is a is sort of a
Speaker 5: worst scenario many I remember talking a lot of Republicans
Speaker 5: like strategists who are saying, like Chip Roy is like
Speaker 5: a little bit harder to beat Mas. Middleton has this
Speaker 5: real vulnerability which is about you know, his legal experience,
Speaker 5: and I think he just gave it to them. Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 5: It's been laying that out. I mean the primary cycle
Speaker 5: did that as well. And so I do think we're
Speaker 5: going to see in a big way Johnson hitting Middleton
Speaker 5: on you know, lack of legal experience.
Speaker 4: And he fits into the billionaire or eat the rich
Speaker 4: kind of situation. I mean for his campaign for the
Speaker 4: most part on his own, which has not been a
Speaker 4: barrier to anyone in the past before, but in this
Speaker 4: environment that we're in, it fits in with Tallarico's message,
Speaker 4: it fits in with Gina in the host's message. It
Speaker 4: could be something there.
Speaker 2: We have some audience questions. I'll just also acknowledge the
Speaker 2: Vicky Goodwin victory lesson another big lieutenant governor as well.
Speaker 2: So we'll see the ticket is shaped up now and
Speaker 2: we'll see how it shakes out. And Matt where we
Speaker 2: got for questions?
Speaker 1: Okay, so we do have a couple questions and then
Speaker 1: we'll turn it back over for you all to close
Speaker 1: it out. But first, I know we're talking a little
Speaker 1: bit about South Texas. The question about does Julio Salinas
Speaker 1: winning in the RGV show signs of an early shift
Speaker 1: in the political coalitions of South Texas?
Speaker 5: You want to take that you were talking about South Texas.
Speaker 4: I don't know. I mean, I was looking at those
Speaker 4: South Texas races and runoffs are weird. Also, a lot
Speaker 4: of those races didn't get a whole lot of like
Speaker 4: down ballot races did not get a whole lot of money.
Speaker 4: So really on those ones, it's just like who's knocking
Speaker 4: on more doors, Who's known name is known the best, really,
Speaker 4: so I think it's really hard to draw like a
Speaker 4: strong conclusion from down ballot races like that. But I mean,
Speaker 4: we'll see in the next what we got four months
Speaker 4: till November really about what the alliances are going to
Speaker 4: look like.
Speaker 1: I know, we talked today a lot about the just
Speaker 1: the attention of the national media on on the Senate race.
Speaker 1: You know, so well, this person asks, will this will
Speaker 1: be our last question here? Will Texas? Will the Texas
Speaker 1: selection be the poster child of what will happen nationally
Speaker 1: for Republicans, i e. A bitter division between the legacy
Speaker 1: goop and MAGA fans.
Speaker 5: I mean, I think it already is being portrayed that way,
Speaker 5: but I also think Texas is not alone in that right,
Speaker 5: Like I think text this you know, sort of comes
Speaker 5: on the heels of several other races where it's really
Speaker 5: mostly about like allegiance to Trump and are you on
Speaker 5: board sort of are you on the MAGA train or
Speaker 5: are you not? And so yeah, I think this race
Speaker 5: is going to be held up by the national media
Speaker 5: as emblematic of everything and you know, like whatever they
Speaker 5: whatever sort of you want it to represent. I think
Speaker 5: there's a lot of themes in there, but I definitely
Speaker 5: think we're going to say a lot of takes about Texas.
Speaker 6: I do think it's also like the most striking example
Speaker 6: of that dynamic, just because it's not Thomas Massey who
Speaker 6: votes against Trump all the time. It's not Bill Cassidy
Speaker 6: who voted to convict, it's John Cornyn, who's like the
Speaker 6: center Republican. And then also just you know, for the
Speaker 6: general election of the when you think about like the
Speaker 6: Democratic path to taking the Senate, you have to hold
Speaker 6: Michigan and Georgia. The best flop opportunities are North Carolina
Speaker 6: and Maine. And then there's this bucket of Iowa, Texas, Alaska,
Speaker 6: and Ohio. And of those four, I mean Texas obviously
Speaker 6: by far the biggest electoral prize and the only one
Speaker 6: that has no recent history of any Democratic state wide success.
Speaker 6: I mean even Obama won Iowa, right, Mary Peltola won
Speaker 6: Alaska House not that long ago, So that would really
Speaker 6: be I think, just for national narrative wise, I mean, yeah,
Speaker 6: that would be like the biggest prize for sure.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: And of course, I mean many people have made this point,
Speaker 2: but a competitive Texas Senate race also just means Republicans
Speaker 2: nationally having to pump a lot of money into a
Speaker 2: very expensive state that could be spent otherwhere other places
Speaker 2: supporting other candidates. And I think, you know, there is
Speaker 2: some frustration among folks that they may have to do that,
Speaker 2: and I think they're gonna have to do that. I mean,
Speaker 2: whether or not he wins, whether or not tul Rico
Speaker 2: wins or not. I have a hard time seeing this
Speaker 2: not feeling like a competitive race. In September October of.
Speaker 6: This year, it was a good night if you're Roy Cooper,
Speaker 6: the Democrat in North Carolina, right, if you're the Democrats
Speaker 6: in even some of these more reached states like Iowa, Alaska,
Speaker 6: where our Republicans are they gonna have to spend in
Speaker 6: Texas And does that take money away? Yeah, from those states.
Speaker 5: And like I think back to my point in the beginning, Like,
Speaker 5: you know, this sort of grassroots arm of the Republican
Speaker 5: Party wins in large part by portraying themselves as sort
Speaker 5: of the threatened underdog. And so I think that's not
Speaker 5: gonna go away just because they've won this, you know battle,
Speaker 5: as well as most other statewide seats.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean it could play well to them to say, hey,
Speaker 4: the establishment doesn't want to give us more money, Let's
Speaker 4: show them what real Texas is and that kind of
Speaker 4: fuels them. But I am curious to see after and November.
Speaker 4: Obviously a hindsight is twenty twenty. But if it all
Speaker 4: feels really really great for the president right now, it
Speaker 4: all feels really really great for the Republican base right now.
Speaker 4: But after November, after election Day, is it going to
Speaker 4: be like, Okay, the base was right, this is fully
Speaker 4: Trump full steam ahead. Or is this a sort of
Speaker 4: like Carrie Lake situation or memet Oz situation where the
Speaker 4: President got behind these candidates who were going to be
Speaker 4: controversial candidates and then they lost in the general. So
Speaker 4: that's sort of we can have that conversation in November.
Speaker 4: But I think there's so much still to play out,
Speaker 4: which is going to be interesting to see.
Speaker 3: Okay, well, James, Gabby, it's been great. Thank you all
Speaker 3: so much for being here and for giving your insights.
Speaker 2: A big thank you to our sponsors builders Texas State
Speaker 2: Technical College in Texas Matters, and a big thank you
Speaker 2: to our members who are here and elsewhere out there
Speaker 2: who make this event and make the podcast and all
Speaker 2: of this reporting possible. We're going to have a lot
Speaker 2: of time talk about between now and November, looking forward
Speaker 2: to it, but that is it for today.