Speaker 1: It's night Side with Dan Ray. I'm telling you Boston's video.
Speaker 2: Sorry, well, we're welcome back everybody ten o'clock hour here
Speaker 2: on nights. I thank you very much, Dan Watkins. It
Speaker 2: is a pennal eight or so at this point, and
Speaker 2: we have been.
Speaker 3: Following the ups and downs of the stock market, the
Speaker 3: dramatic ups and downs of the United States stock market
Speaker 3: well for the last six editions of Nightside, beginning last Thursday, Friday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday,
Speaker 3: and today.
Speaker 2: The market had a huge day yesterday across the board,
Speaker 2: up up Wednesday on the Nasdaq, the S and P
Speaker 2: five hundred, the S and P on Wednesday was up
Speaker 2: nine point five two percent, Jones, the Dow was up
Speaker 2: twenty nine hundred points yesterday. The thirty sec thirty stock
Speaker 2: group of companies skyrocketed yesterday. Well today it kind of
Speaker 2: went back in the opposite direction. The S and P
Speaker 2: five hundred down three and a half percent. On Thursday,
Speaker 2: the Dow tumbled a thousand points, down two point five percent,
Speaker 2: and the Nasdaq Tech heavy NASDAK as they say, down
Speaker 2: four point three one percent. How do you make any
Speaker 2: sense of this? And what should you do? There's someone
Speaker 2: who I have talked to. He's not a stock picker.
Speaker 2: He's not a financial analyst, although I'm sure he could
Speaker 2: he could be that he's one of the smartest guys
Speaker 2: I know. Tatsu Eketa uh Tatsu is the CEO of
Speaker 2: a company called tech Health Ventures, co founder of refers
Speaker 2: ship AI. He has twenty five years of experience in
Speaker 2: technology consulting, business leadership to his analysis of the intersection
Speaker 2: between policy, economics and technology. Graduate of Carnegie Mellon, which
Speaker 2: I think is probably the school that has the smartest
Speaker 2: people in the world. Tats, who has run five businesses,
Speaker 2: served on nonprofit boards of directors. His expertise includes blockchain, cryptocurrency,
Speaker 2: tech startups, cloud computing, iOS, app development, and network infrastructure.
Speaker 2: Speaks on AI, Python development, emerging technology. He also writes
Speaker 2: and he publishes on substack. Tatsu ikeda welcome tonight'side. How
Speaker 2: are you, sir?
Speaker 4: Good? Thank you Dan. Good to be with again.
Speaker 2: Yes, I'll tell you it's great to have you back,
Speaker 2: that is for sure. So we'll start off with general questions.
Speaker 2: You have I think a brilliant piece, a brilliant piece
Speaker 2: that you released. I guess it was April ninth, which
Speaker 2: would have been yesterday. Trump's tariffs, trade reset or market disruption.
Speaker 2: That's the question behind Wall Street market bro panic, Liiza
Speaker 2: more nuanced reality. The US consumer economy remains the ace
Speaker 2: up the sleeve and global trade negotiations. So we're going
Speaker 2: to break this down. First of all, tell us a
Speaker 2: little bit about what you do. You write, you think,
Speaker 2: you publish. What amazes me is that your article, which
Speaker 2: is easily acceptable, accessible, I should say at your website
Speaker 2: not only is in written form, but it's also in
Speaker 2: verbal form. Do you want to tell us how that's done?
Speaker 4: Sure, So I publish on substack because I'm a little
Speaker 4: too good for the New York Times. Just kidding.
Speaker 2: They should be so lucky, they should be so lucky tat,
Speaker 2: So go ahead.
Speaker 4: Yeah. So I try to write in a very accessible manner,
Speaker 4: as you say, for general readers, but try to try
Speaker 4: to explain very high level concepts. So you know, I
Speaker 4: try to teach PhD material to twelfth grade students, and
Speaker 4: that's how I that's how I approach my writing. And
Speaker 4: I do take cues from New York Times because they
Speaker 4: have a very good narrative form in terms of how
Speaker 4: people accept journalism. So then I take that article that
Speaker 4: I write and I try to keep it short, you know,
Speaker 4: three thousand words, and then I feed it into AI,
Speaker 4: which can now generate a podcast for me. And so
Speaker 4: that podcast is about seventeen minutes. It actually makes it
Speaker 4: in three minutes, which is kind of amazing if you
Speaker 4: think about.
Speaker 2: It, because I was listening to the podcast, and as
Speaker 2: a matter of fact, today I asked you, you know,
Speaker 2: who are your narrators? Those are a that's AI technology there,
Speaker 2: it's yes, it's it's generated voices. Is what it is.
Speaker 2: Was the male and a female voice, which basically can
Speaker 2: walk people through your article. Your articles are so direct
Speaker 2: and clear that when I say they're easy to read,
Speaker 2: they can be. They're challenging, and they will. They don't
Speaker 2: use baby words or anything like that, but it's very clear.
Speaker 2: So let's start off a little bit with with this article,
Speaker 2: and if people want to join the conversation, you break
Speaker 2: it down into like sub sections. Okay, it's only three
Speaker 2: thousand words. So the introduction you is entitled predictable market
Speaker 2: market panic. Predictable market panic with a nice cartoon of
Speaker 2: tariffs some Wall Street. It looks like people with telephones
Speaker 2: that they are markets plunge. Algorithm algorithm algorithm algorithm panic,
Speaker 2: the parents that work correctly algorithm panic. Explain to my
Speaker 2: audience what algorithm panic means.
Speaker 4: Well, it means that most of the stock market activity
Speaker 4: that you follow, if you follow at all, is mostly computerized, right,
Speaker 4: So it's automated, and so the trading practices or algorithms
Speaker 4: if you want, are mostly computer controlled, and it's it's
Speaker 4: steered by human behavior. So and that's the panic that
Speaker 4: we talk about. But so so it's.
Speaker 2: Not it's not it's not like five hundred traders on
Speaker 2: the floor making individual decisions and cumulatively that becomes the
Speaker 2: direction of the market, which is what it used to be.
Speaker 2: Now as there's algorithms that have been put into computers
Speaker 2: which say, if all of a sudden, uh a video
Speaker 2: uh drops two percent, then it's time to really sell,
Speaker 2: uh and and and and and nothing's going to stop
Speaker 2: that from selling, right. Uh.
Speaker 4: There's there are things called like stop losses and other
Speaker 4: jargon to basically cut your losses at a certain point
Speaker 4: and sell. And so that's that's what's going on. You know,
Speaker 4: everyone's like in a panic, sell because some guy decided
Speaker 4: to put some teras and by the way, you can,
Speaker 4: you can catch uh all the all all the articles.
Speaker 4: It's called tap this newsletter on sub stack by the way.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll we'll get that. And and I yeah, that's
Speaker 2: that's going to be easy. We'll give up, certainly, we'll
Speaker 2: we'll mention that. So, so you talked that he said
Speaker 2: critical facts behind the hysteria, Behind the hysteria you talk about,
Speaker 2: you know, President Trump, you know, imposes this ten percent
Speaker 2: tariff on all the imports on April fifth and then
Speaker 2: targeted rates on China. And is that a personal thing
Speaker 2: with Trump? Do you think or is your analysis that
Speaker 2: this is actually thought through, because many of my listeners
Speaker 2: are beginning to doubt the wisdom of the guy that
Speaker 2: wrote Art of the Deal.
Speaker 4: Right. Well, he's been very consistent since the nineteen eighties.
Speaker 4: It's very easy to find videos with him on Oprah.
Speaker 4: You know, I'm not sure what you're in nineteen eighties,
Speaker 4: but he's been railing this message that America has unfayed
Speaker 4: unfair trade partners across the world, whether it be you know, Japan, China.
Speaker 4: He's been saying this for decades and so he's trying to,
Speaker 4: you know, reset the position of the US as a
Speaker 4: trading partner, not just for you know, balancing our budgets,
Speaker 4: but also to bring back industry to the US. And
Speaker 4: you know, there's examples of this that have worked in
Speaker 4: the past. So yeah, I think I think he's making
Speaker 4: a bold move. He you know, he might might say
Speaker 4: it's gambling, but I think it's an educated, educated one,
Speaker 4: and one with few downsides, right.
Speaker 2: Okay, So so so let me ask you a question.
Speaker 2: As a historian, and you're a pretty good historian, it
Speaker 2: seems to me that our generosity to the rest of
Speaker 2: the world may have begun post World War Two with
Speaker 2: the Marshall Plan to rebuild Europe. Am I far off
Speaker 2: point on that.
Speaker 4: Yeah, And there after World War Two we rebuilt Germany,
Speaker 4: we rebuilt Japan, like I, for example, I like to
Speaker 4: collect antiques that they made and occupied Germany or made
Speaker 4: and occupied Japan, and so literally rebuilt their industries and
Speaker 4: they had you know, think they made car companies, electronics
Speaker 4: and so forth. But then they started to retaliate on us, right,
Speaker 4: so they instituted their tariffs, which no one talks about today. Strangely,
Speaker 4: because like, if terrorists are such a bad thing, why
Speaker 4: does it work for the rest of the world because
Speaker 4: they do it to us. Right.
Speaker 2: I read a statistic that said ninety four percent of
Speaker 2: the cars in Japan are manufactured in Japan and that
Speaker 2: they import only six percent. That is that it's a
Speaker 2: very interesting statistic that they're able to control the infusion
Speaker 2: of foreign made cars into their country. Obviously they see
Speaker 2: that as something that's beneficial to.
Speaker 4: Them, right, Yeah, So if it works for them, like
Speaker 4: can't we why why can't we allow ourselves as Americans
Speaker 4: to try to do the same thing. Like it's a
Speaker 4: very confounding idea that if currents work for other countries,
Speaker 4: why can't we make some work for us.
Speaker 2: It's sort of what's good for the goose is good
Speaker 2: for the gander argument, I guess, when reduced the most
Speaker 2: simple form. But my guest is Tatsu Ikeda. He is
Speaker 2: a writer and a thinker. He is an expert on
Speaker 2: so many areas that I know little or nothing about.
Speaker 2: I stand in in absolute admiration in awe of his
Speaker 2: knowledge base. If you had any questions about any of
Speaker 2: the related topics that we mentioned earlier, and you'd like
Speaker 2: to ask a question or compare your your point of
Speaker 2: view with Tatsu, would be happy to take your call
Speaker 2: six one seven, two five four ten thirty or seven
Speaker 2: six one seven uh six one seven nine three one
Speaker 2: ten thirty. So we got six one seven two five
Speaker 2: four to ten thirty and six one seven nine three
Speaker 2: one ten thirty. We're going to walk through this. There's
Speaker 2: also have some amazing statistics that Tatsu has in this
Speaker 2: article that talks about how quickly our stock market has
Speaker 2: recovered and if the past is prologue. I think we
Speaker 2: should talk about those issues, and we'll do that when
Speaker 2: we get back on Nightside. Feel free to join this conversation,
Speaker 2: whether you agree or disagree. I think we'll all learn
Speaker 2: quite a bit in the next next forty minutes or so.
Speaker 1: Coming back on Nightside, It's Nightside with Dan Ray on
Speaker 1: Boston's Lose Right.
Speaker 2: We're joined by Tatsu Ikeda and Tatsu, you have a
Speaker 2: graph in your article in Substack which I think is
Speaker 2: really interesting, and that graph breaks down the recent you
Speaker 2: go back to Black Monday nineteen eighty seven, the two
Speaker 2: thousand Dot Com bubble, the two thousand and eight financial crisis,
Speaker 2: the twenty twenty COVID nineteen crash, twenty twenty two inflation,
Speaker 2: inflation rate, hike and the twenty twenty four tech correction,
Speaker 2: and it's amazing that steep Wall Street losses, for the
Speaker 2: most part, we're restored pretty quickly, much more quickly than
Speaker 2: I think most of us. Remember, explain, you don't have
Speaker 2: to hit all the numbers, but explain it's the principle
Speaker 2: that you seem to have found in this market recoveries
Speaker 2: after major crashes. Graph that you developed.
Speaker 4: Yeah, sure, sir, vocabulary and terminology around market dips tends
Speaker 4: to be greatly exaggerated. And if you look at the headlines,
Speaker 4: you would say that, oh my god, the stock market crashed,
Speaker 4: and you know, define the word crash basically. So I
Speaker 4: actually wouldn't consider the current dip in our correction as
Speaker 4: the finance bros like to say, as a crash, because
Speaker 4: it's not even to the levels of COVID the twenty
Speaker 4: twenty crash and the twenty twenty crash. I mean, how
Speaker 4: long did it take to recover that, like nine months?
Speaker 4: And then the stock market continued to actually record highs, right,
Speaker 4: so just just nine months under a year, and that
Speaker 4: we were back to boom times. And the boom times
Speaker 4: were for people, people in finance, people on Wall Street,
Speaker 4: not not for us, you know then the normal citizenry
Speaker 4: who got fourteen dollars in COVID relief for some some
Speaker 4: business loans or you know things like that.
Speaker 2: Sure, so what what So as you look at this,
Speaker 2: there's there's some wildcards on the table here. We have uh,
Speaker 2: these uh, these tariffs which were first imposed and then
Speaker 2: withdrawn and ninety day cooling off period. Where do you
Speaker 2: think will be ninety days from now? Do you think
Speaker 2: that President Trump will get many of these other nations,
Speaker 2: probably not all, but many other nations around the world
Speaker 2: to comply with these reciprocal lower tariffs. Or do you think, uh,
Speaker 2: the world is going to stand up to to the
Speaker 2: United States and say, no, we're not gonna We're not
Speaker 2: going to cooperate. What's your guess?
Speaker 4: Well, I hate to uh make an unintentional toun but
Speaker 4: the US economy is basically a consumer economy, and that's
Speaker 4: Trump's trump card, right. So we we buy everything, most
Speaker 4: of the products in the world from every country, and
Speaker 4: every every country exports to us. So if we stop
Speaker 4: buying from the rest of the world, everyone else goes
Speaker 4: out of business. That's It's as simple as that. So
Speaker 4: that's that's a very very persuasive card to, you know,
Speaker 4: put down on a table if you're playing poker.
Speaker 2: And so I think so, then then let me ask
Speaker 2: you this is President Trump smart to as opposed to
Speaker 2: sticking with the Plan Plan A. Is he smart to
Speaker 2: have said, Okay, we'll take a ninety day cooling off
Speaker 2: period and we'll try to get as many of these
Speaker 2: negotiated as possible. I mean, did he make a mistake?
Speaker 2: You're not doing that initially it would be the flip
Speaker 2: side of that question.
Speaker 4: Oh no, I think it was wise to, you know,
Speaker 4: throw down a very hard hand on the table, just
Speaker 4: bang your hand on the table and say enough, you know.
Speaker 4: And he needs ninety days because there's going to be
Speaker 4: a lot of negotiations with a lot of different dustries.
Speaker 4: So he's going to have to have a lot of
Speaker 4: his administration deal with all these individual deals. So I
Speaker 4: mean just just imagine if you're the RS and you
Speaker 4: have a million people not paying their taxes, Like, what
Speaker 4: are you going to do? You need time to sort
Speaker 4: that out. So it's okay, moratorium, come to us, or
Speaker 4: we'll come to you. Let's talk it out. Well, that's
Speaker 4: what the ninety day.
Speaker 2: Is about will most of these deals have to be
Speaker 2: reduced to writing tatsu or are they going to be
Speaker 2: handshake deals and you keep an eye on us, We'll
Speaker 2: keep an eye on you. And as long as you
Speaker 2: as long as you comply, will comply.
Speaker 4: Well, I think someone's going to be watching that very carefully.
Speaker 4: I think it will be in writing. There's going to
Speaker 4: be an opportunity. Trump is going to allow other leaders
Speaker 4: in other countries to say face you know, that's the
Speaker 4: smart play for him is to let them come to us,
Speaker 4: you know, maybe come to the White House, whatever you
Speaker 4: want to do, and and make a deal. It's like, Okay,
Speaker 4: I made a deal with Trump, I'm good. Vote for
Speaker 4: me again.
Speaker 2: So how do they How does he avoid more embarrassments
Speaker 2: like these Lensky meeting.
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, Zolensky, that's just a different case. He almost
Speaker 4: had it there. I think Zolensky just had a very
Speaker 4: emotional moment. I don't I can't tell you if it
Speaker 4: was programmed or not. But it's clear that he was
Speaker 4: out of his league. And well he's kind of like
Speaker 4: other leaders like uh Natanyahu. He's on a string and
Speaker 4: if he doesn't retain power, it's very likely he could
Speaker 4: be under prosecution for various other activities in his life.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I get you. Yeah, let me take a
Speaker 2: quick break. My guest is a tatsu Ikeda. He is
Speaker 2: an expert on so many things. I mentioned it earlier.
Speaker 2: He's someone who does go ahead, I'm sorry, did you
Speaker 2: want to say something? Oh, now I think I'm sorry.
Speaker 2: I was. I just got to rap here because they
Speaker 2: got to go to the news. I was saying that
Speaker 2: you are an expert on a lot of things that
Speaker 2: are all sort of coming into play here, things like blockchain, cryptocurrency,
Speaker 2: tech startups, cloud computing, all of that which in this
Speaker 2: new system of trading that we have. And uh and
Speaker 2: also international relations, a graduate of Carnegie Mellon. Let's take
Speaker 2: a break, and we'll get a newscast and we'll open
Speaker 2: this up for phone calls as well. Six one, seven, two, five, four,
Speaker 2: ten thirty six one seven, nine, three, one, ten thirty.
Speaker 2: It has been a crazy week now eight days. It's
Speaker 2: been a it's been a rough time. But if you
Speaker 2: listen to tatsu uh, it makes some sense of it.
Speaker 2: Uh and and sees some structure that may be many
Speaker 2: of us in the moment of panic don't see. And
Speaker 2: that's why I'm having him with us tonight, and that's
Speaker 2: why he's kind enough to give us some time. He
Speaker 2: writes for sub stack, and we'll give you all sorts
Speaker 2: of ways to follow his writings. And it's amazing how
Speaker 2: clear he is with explaining really complicated concepts. And then
Speaker 2: he takes that article that he's written again proximately three
Speaker 2: thousand words, and transposes it into an AI generated conversation
Speaker 2: of about seventeen minutes. So you can read the article,
Speaker 2: listen to the article, or do what I did and
Speaker 2: do both. We'll be back on Nightside with my guest
Speaker 2: Tatsu Akda right after this.
Speaker 1: You're on Nightside with Dan Ray on WBZ Boston's news radio.
Speaker 2: We're talking with my guest Tatsu Ikeda. He is he's
Speaker 2: a thinker, I mean, and he writes for substack. Uh.
Speaker 2: And before we get to phone calls Tatsu. The easiest
Speaker 2: way they just go to substack and look for your columns, Tatsu,
Speaker 2: t A T s U I kDa I K E
Speaker 2: d A. Is that the easiest way.
Speaker 4: For Tatsu's newsletter? Actually?
Speaker 2: Okayst fair enough on at substack at substack. Okay, So
Speaker 2: they got to get to substack and look for Tatsu's newsletter.
Speaker 2: Let's get to some phone calls and incorporate some of
Speaker 2: our listeners into the conversation. Steve is in Cambridge. Steve
Speaker 2: is one of my best callers. I always mentioned that,
Speaker 2: but I actually firmly believe that, Steve. You're on with
Speaker 2: Tatsu kDa.
Speaker 5: Go right ahead, Steve Tatsu. Dan is always too kind
Speaker 5: to me. But thank you, Dan Tatsu.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 5: I'm glad to hear some optimism. Uh. But here is
Speaker 5: one argument. I have two arguments. Here's one argument against tariffs.
Speaker 5: In the nineteen sixties, we had three automakers, big automakers
Speaker 5: in this country, and they were very, very complacent, so
Speaker 5: they kept putting out the same product year after Your
Speaker 5: heavy cars used a lot of gasoline. And then we
Speaker 5: started having Japanese imports, and people preferred those cars. They
Speaker 5: got better gas mileage, they were more nimbo then and
Speaker 5: only then did our car makers start to innovate, so
Speaker 5: that competition actually helped the American auto industry. How would
Speaker 5: you respond to that argument.
Speaker 4: I totally agree. I don't see the relationship between innovation
Speaker 4: and tariffs.
Speaker 5: The you know, if we had had if we had
Speaker 5: had a high tariff on Japanese cars, they never would
Speaker 5: have entered into our market, and then our automakers wouldn't
Speaker 5: have had to compete with them, and they would have
Speaker 5: just stayed the same.
Speaker 4: Right, So I think that's what Trump is going for.
Speaker 4: I mean, the ultimate goal would be zero terriffs across
Speaker 4: the board for every country.
Speaker 5: Right, that's I would that's totally free trade, yes, right, So.
Speaker 4: I don't think Trump will get us there because you know,
Speaker 4: basically tariffs and US are higher against our tariffs against
Speaker 4: the rest of the world essentially, So you know, maybe
Speaker 4: if we get to fifty of the difference, that's pretty decent.
Speaker 5: And but for example, for the consumer, consumer thinks day
Speaker 5: to day. For example, I enjoy cigars. Most of the
Speaker 5: cigars come from Central America or the Caribbean. If they
Speaker 5: put a terrify it in addition to paying the high
Speaker 5: taxes I have to pay for cigars, the price is
Speaker 5: going to go up and consumers aren't going to like
Speaker 5: that in the short run.
Speaker 4: Right, Yeah, there's going to be a lot of turmoil.
Speaker 4: I mean, with every innovation, whether it's financial or technological,
Speaker 4: there's just going to be lots of turn and some
Speaker 4: things will go up, some things will go down. I mean,
Speaker 4: if we look at today's news, inflation across the board,
Speaker 4: is that record level lows.
Speaker 5: Oh I'm so glad to hear that. Yeah, yeah, okay,
Speaker 5: I'm waiting for my cigar prices to go down, but
Speaker 5: the taxes keep going up, so I guess that's not
Speaker 5: going to happen.
Speaker 2: Well, gas prices have also dropped in the last couple
Speaker 2: of months. There's no question about that, right, Yes, there is,
Speaker 2: there is, Yeah, is dropped as well. Go ahead, So.
Speaker 5: Let me ask you one question, one more question. Why
Speaker 5: is it that all of our news reporting is so
Speaker 5: uh negative on Trump's tariffs?
Speaker 6: Yeah?
Speaker 4: The right, you know, if you want to be a
Speaker 4: leftist and call it the far right, ultramaga, whatever names
Speaker 4: you want to put to it. I believe that, you know,
Speaker 4: Trump is just the epitome of some kind of evil
Speaker 4: or something like this, and uh, I find it hard
Speaker 4: to accept. You know, He's just human being, and I
Speaker 4: think they're just being very rational to be.
Speaker 5: You think our media is being irrational because of their
Speaker 5: dislike of Trump.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's part of it. The other part of it
Speaker 4: is the media is an instrument of you know, various
Speaker 4: powerful establishment figures we shall not mention at the moment,
Speaker 4: and they're literally, you know, puppets of those people. So
Speaker 4: they have a narrative that's pre destined to tell. So
Speaker 4: all right, well listen.
Speaker 5: Thank you. I'm really really glad that you're on the
Speaker 5: show tonight to hear a somewhat different perspective than is
Speaker 5: being out there for most of the media. Dan, thank you, Thank.
Speaker 2: You absolutely our pleasure. Steve, thank you very much. I
Speaker 2: appreciate your call. Let me very quickly. I'm going to
Speaker 2: raise some points that are raised Tatsu, and I'd like
Speaker 2: to get your response to them. Some who are very
Speaker 2: critical of Trump's plans here are saying this is really
Speaker 2: a lost cause because it will take five to ten
Speaker 2: years to construct factories to be able to compete. This
Speaker 2: is not something that we can turn around. It's almost
Speaker 2: as if the the forverbial horses have left the barn.
Speaker 2: What is I know? The response is the best time
Speaker 2: to plant a tree is yesterday, but the best time
Speaker 2: to start building a new factory is yesterday. How do
Speaker 2: you respond to that? Do we have the capacity quickly
Speaker 2: to bring jobs back and open factories here and and
Speaker 2: start what we what we need to do. Tell us
Speaker 2: about it.
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, I mean we have to get better about
Speaker 4: you know, planning, building, managing factories. We can do things
Speaker 4: the old way, you know. Obviously we live in Boston,
Speaker 4: so we know the world's most expensive construction project in
Speaker 4: the world, the Big Dig, right, fifteen years of total
Speaker 4: chaos and over overruns in the budgets and so on.
Speaker 4: Or you know, we can try to be more like China,
Speaker 4: which is building the world's highest bridge. It literally looks
Speaker 4: like a skyscraper, but vertical, horizontal in the sky, really
Speaker 4: crossing to to mountains in southwestern China. And that's you know,
Speaker 4: they built, they build, They build these things in like
Speaker 4: a year.
Speaker 2: You know, where do they get the capital? Where do
Speaker 2: they get the capitol to do that? I mean that
Speaker 2: sounds like an extraordinary.
Speaker 4: Project, right, Yeah. The rate at which China of you know,
Speaker 4: builds infrastructure not just from the cells, but for Africa,
Speaker 4: they're building entire deports and you know, opening up trade
Speaker 4: for African countries and there's a benefit for them because
Speaker 4: they you know, China wants to be the major trading
Speaker 4: partner obviously, because they're building these things for free for them.
Speaker 2: And they're building is it called Is it called the Silk.
Speaker 4: Road, right? Yeah, the Silk Road. Yeah, so you know.
Speaker 2: Which is is intended to cross.
Speaker 4: Asia, right, Asia, Asia to Europe and in Africa. Yes,
Speaker 4: so very ambitious, but I think they're going to succeed.
Speaker 4: You know, they're they're you know this, this goes back
Speaker 4: a long way. African countries like Ivory Coast and New Guinea,
Speaker 4: they used to be after post colonial Europe. You know,
Speaker 4: they used to be training partners with America now building
Speaker 4: electro hydro dams, you know, leaders like Krame and Kroma
Speaker 4: and so forth. So but we missed out. I mean,
Speaker 4: we built the dam in uh Krouma, but the second
Speaker 4: dam is going to be built by China. And where
Speaker 4: they get the money from, well, they get the money
Speaker 4: from the US consumer, you know. To bring this conversation
Speaker 4: full circle, yes.
Speaker 2: And that's exactly what I want you to do. Yeah, yeah, yeah, Okay,
Speaker 2: that's the point I wanted you. I wanted to make.
Speaker 2: Let me do this. I got to take a quick break.
Speaker 2: We have packed lines here, so I think you're going
Speaker 2: to be interested in some of the folks questions that
Speaker 2: are coming in. My guest, Tatsu Ikeda, I think it's
Speaker 2: a fascinating conversation. I hope you do as well. I hope.
Speaker 2: The thing that's great about Tatsu is the is understandable
Speaker 2: and takes complex subjects and breaks them down so I
Speaker 2: can understand them and you can understand them. Back on
Speaker 2: Nightside right after this break, You're.
Speaker 1: On night Side with Dan Ray on WBZ Boston's news radio.
Speaker 2: Back to the phones, who go, Let me go to
Speaker 2: Robin Medford. Rob, you are next on Nightside with Tatsu Ekta.
Speaker 6: Gort ahead, Rob, Good evening, gentlemen. I understand that China
Speaker 6: exports about three point five trillion dollars, and if they
Speaker 6: are not exporting that three point five trillion dollars, their
Speaker 6: backup of widgets and all their widget makers will also
Speaker 6: be out of work. So will not they be affected?
Speaker 6: Twofold that not only will all their people be out
Speaker 6: of work because no one is buying their goods, mainly US,
Speaker 6: but they will also not be selling anything. So will
Speaker 6: that not cause the economy more or less to implode
Speaker 6: sooner than later? With the two poles of fact, Yeah.
Speaker 2: Let's see what let's you with? Tatsu says a great question. Wrong,
Speaker 2: Go ahead, Tatsu.
Speaker 4: Yeah, So that's an interesting scenario, and there there are
Speaker 4: many different, you know, micro scenarios like this that make
Speaker 4: up the global economy, in our economy as a whole.
Speaker 4: So there's this concept of stagflation, right, inflation with flowed growth,
Speaker 4: and that's kind of what you're living to uh at.
Speaker 4: At the same time, there are other activities in the economy,
Speaker 4: such as if you read the article the example of
Speaker 4: the home builder in Pennsylvania. I'm not sure exactly, I
Speaker 4: can't remember where he was, but he was like, well,
Speaker 4: if the terraffs, you know, slow down things, but it
Speaker 4: brings back manufacturing to the US over time, I'm willing
Speaker 4: to take that trade off because as a home builder,
Speaker 4: as a construction you know, general contractor or whatever, if
Speaker 4: if industry comes back to my city, then my business
Speaker 4: is going to grow. So that's the other side of it.
Speaker 4: And you know, just you know, let's make the metaphor
Speaker 4: of technology right, good, go ahead.
Speaker 6: Well, I recall reading an article that was called A
Speaker 6: Road to Nowhere, and it just talked about how China
Speaker 6: puts their people to work building roads and structures just
Speaker 6: to keep their economy going. They put people to work
Speaker 6: and keep them out there and without their people working
Speaker 6: and generating money, they're going to have uh uh, a
Speaker 6: surplus of things and and and a lodge amount and
Speaker 6: is their economy? Is this block market not going more?
Speaker 4: Hay wires.
Speaker 6: You don't hear about that in the media too. The
Speaker 6: effect that this is having on the Chinese start market
Speaker 6: is incredible.
Speaker 2: They are okay, let's see, let's see Tatsu news. I'm
Speaker 2: unaware of that, Tatsu. Have you followed the Chinese market
Speaker 2: in the last week, eight to eight days.
Speaker 4: Well, globally it's every every market is down and you
Speaker 4: know that's uh, you know, expected turn of events and
Speaker 4: it's just you know, a correction. And whether I mean
Speaker 4: we should define the word correction in markets? Right? Markets
Speaker 4: are not as rational as we think. You know, it's
Speaker 4: totally based on psychology and reason, fear, right, greed and fear.
Speaker 4: So you know, when when you fear, you sell and
Speaker 4: then markets go down. When you get greedy, you buy
Speaker 4: and hope for the best. So that's basically a market.
Speaker 2: Go ahead, rob, Rob, I'm going to let you go
Speaker 2: because they want to get another call in before Tatsu
Speaker 2: before we got a break. Okay, okay, thanks you great.
Speaker 2: We make great points thank you. Let's go to Melissa
Speaker 2: in Portland, Oregon. Melissa, you're on with Tatsu Cada.
Speaker 4: Go right ahead, Melissa, Hi, Thank you, Hi, Tatsu.
Speaker 7: I really enjoyed your comments. My question to you is
Speaker 7: when jobs went offshore, in addition to cost in the US,
Speaker 7: it was also that the unions were kind of a
Speaker 7: part of the problem, you know, causing issues with rising cost.
Speaker 7: If jobs come back to the US, where do you
Speaker 7: see unions fitting into that picture?
Speaker 4: A figure question. I haven't thought about it, but my
Speaker 4: bach would be that, you know, unions have to be
Speaker 4: a reasonable bargaining partner in all of this. So we
Speaker 4: know that we know unions in the past have been
Speaker 4: denigrated and their their bargaining power has been decreased over
Speaker 4: time greatly, so but you know, there's probably still a
Speaker 4: role for them. They would have to rebuild themselves and
Speaker 4: they would have to refashion themselves as an honest bargaining
Speaker 4: partner in the negotiations. And it's tough because they sit
Speaker 4: between people in government like Trump and everyday workers. So
Speaker 4: they can't price themselves out of the market, which would
Speaker 4: delay innovation, which would delay building a new infrastructure for
Speaker 4: business projects like factories, and yeah, yeah, I think I
Speaker 4: think it's a good time for them, the unions, to
Speaker 4: rethink how they want to negotiate on behalf of the
Speaker 4: American worker.
Speaker 8: Yeah, I feel like that's going to be a really
Speaker 8: critical part. I remember with the Auto workers Union a
Speaker 8: couple of years ago, you know, came up with a
Speaker 8: lot of really high end requests, like on the healthcare side.
Speaker 8: And you certainly don't want to lose benefits. But if
Speaker 8: you're making requests that are going to cost people jobs,
Speaker 8: you know, are you really helping? And so I guess
Speaker 8: as I as I've been watching and listening the last week,
Speaker 8: my concern has been, well, if we get the jobs back,
Speaker 8: how do we keep them here? So I appreciate your answer.
Speaker 2: Yeah, appreciate you call us always, Melissa, Thank you so much.
Speaker 8: Thanks, BOBBYE.
Speaker 2: That's it. We're sort of rushing up, getting up against
Speaker 2: the end of the hour here. I'd like to once again,
Speaker 2: the best way people can follow you they just go
Speaker 2: to Tatsu on substack. Is that the easiest way?
Speaker 4: Yep, t A t s U Tatsy's newsletter on substack.
Speaker 2: That's great. I'm looking at the nick A Average, which
Speaker 2: courses on the other side of the world. Right now,
Speaker 2: they're off about five or six percent. They were up
Speaker 2: nine percent yesterday, so they have sort of reflected this.
Speaker 2: I have no idea where the market's going to go tomorrow.
Speaker 2: I have no idea what's going to go next week.
Speaker 2: But I guess you're telling us that at the end
Speaker 2: of this you think we're going to be okay.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it should be fine. Like I didn't include, you know,
Speaker 4: prior talk market crashes before nineteen eighty. You know, you
Speaker 4: can go back to nineteen thirty if you on, and
Speaker 4: we've always recovered, Like the stock market is very, very reliable.
Speaker 4: You know, look at look at the long term growth
Speaker 4: over one hundred years, two hundred years. I mean, it's
Speaker 4: never it's unbeatable.
Speaker 2: That's thanks for some optimism. Thank you so much. We
Speaker 2: will talk again. Tatsu t a t s U newsletter
Speaker 2: at substack. It's an extraordinary, extraordinarily clearly written and also
Speaker 2: you can listen to it a conversation about it, which
Speaker 2: will tell you as well. I highly recommend for every
Speaker 2: one of my listeners to at some point tomorrow or
Speaker 2: the or over the weekend, spend some time uh and
Speaker 2: follow and follow Tatsu because I think that he is
Speaker 2: as as keen an observer as I have seen in
Speaker 2: the last a few weeks on this and previously on
Speaker 2: our other issues. That's who my friend is. Always. Thank you,
Speaker 2: I will have you back if that's okay with you.
Speaker 4: Yessly, it's alta. It's a pleasure again.
Speaker 2: Thank you, Hey, thank you, tatsu Okay, we come back.
Speaker 2: I would like to continue the conversation. Do you feel
Speaker 2: a little better as a result of talking to Tatsuo
Speaker 2: or talking listening to Tatsuo? I know I do. If
Speaker 2: you're on the lines, stay there. If you're not, fill
Speaker 2: the lines up six one, seven, two, five, four, ten
Speaker 2: thirty six one seven, nine three one ten thirty forty
Speaker 2: eight hours ago, we were kind of where we are
Speaker 2: right now. We had a great day on Wednesday, not
Speaker 2: a great day to day. Who knows what happens tomorrow.
Speaker 2: Back on Night's side, after this