Speaker 1: All right, welcome in.
Speaker 2: It is Friday, the final total basis before the All
Star Break.
Speaker 1: We've hit the literal home stretch.
Speaker 2: It's the last show that we're gonna do until next Friday,
because there's no games after Sunday until next Friday.
Speaker 1: So we've got to make it a good one. Sixteen games.
Speaker 2: I was actually surprised to see a doubleheader today, especially
in the Division.
Speaker 1: Usually they don't do that.
Speaker 2: But who knows, maybe Chicago doesn't make the trip to
Cleveland the rest of the year. So we've got a
full slate and we're gonna get started with what I'm
going to make this the feature game. I think this
series has gained in importance now. Brian Leonard, Cubs Yankees,
Yankee Stadium. What a crazy finish to that Yankee Mariners
game last night, A no hitter into the eighth inning
that turned into a walk off win for the Yankees.
The Cubs did bounce back, but suddenly those Brewers are
on their tail. They could if the Cubs don't get
something out of this series, Brian Leonard, they could go
into the All Star Break in second place in the
end of Central. If you told me that a couple
of weeks ago. I would not have believed that was possible.
But here we are, Cubs Yankees, Yankee Stadium. How are
you seeing this one?
Speaker 3: Yeah? The Cubs got us to such a great start.
They've been something. We just expect that to continue all
season long, and they haven't been. But I really like
this Cubs team. I think eventually they're gonna win this
division and be a threat in the playoffs. They got
flexing going today against Carlos Rodan. Chris Flexen is a
guy who they've threatened to put into the starting rotation
because he's done so well, very similar to what Kansas
City had done with Boobitch yes last year. But Boobitch
and Flexin are two different pitchers. I've watched him pitch.
He's been a little bit lucky in my regards, so
I don't know if that's gonna work out. Yankee is
prohibitive favorite, though they're coming in about a one to
eighty favorite, with a total of nine mentioned Chris Flexen
this year. Keep in mind this is this year. He's
been in the bullpen the entire time. Zero point eight
three ERA three point twenty six expected zero point eighty
six whip. The reason why I'm skeptical he is. In
his career, he's got a four point seventy five ERA
and one point four to six WHIP. He's never been
anything but basically a four A player. But the reason
is his strikeout rate. He's never had a good strikeout right.
Last year it was seventeen point four. The year before
it was fifteen point nine. Keep in mind he was starting.
When you go to the bullpen, you could just let
it out. Well, he's letting it out at thirteen point
nine percent. That is not good. That is terrible for
a strikeout pitcher. Obviously, with the walk rate, he's got
a strikeout minus walk a seven point three, not very good.
You take a look at his deadcast page, he's second
percentile strikeouts, fifth percentile whiffs. He is good with the
barrel and the hard hit rate. He's been very good
in that regard. But if you can't strike somebody out,
more balls are in play. That major defense and I
don't like those type of pitchers. I don't want to
wish bad luck on anybody, but I think he's hit
his peak so far this year. Telos are down three
point three zh ERA three point one two, expected one
point three whips been very good, poor extension, but his
wik percentage is eighty nine percentel strike out right eighty fifth,
expected batting average eighty ninth. Take a quick look at
his splits here. Home games three point twenty five ERA,
road games three point three six very good there. If
we remember the last time out, he paced the Mets
and he got hit hard. I gave up six or
in runs in five innings. Before that, he'd had some
pretty good starts, but he got hit by the Red Sox,
and so it seems that he sees to get hit
worse with good heading teams. But you know, he's played
a lot of good handing teams lately. You know the
match Toronto, the Reds could be a good heading team
of times, the Angels home runs, you know Boston. Why so,
considering who he's faced, I think he's done a pretty
good job. I prefer the Mats here by just or
excuse me, the Yankees here. I just can't lay that number.
It's it's just too high for me.
Speaker 4: So the way I approach this one, the first thing
I look at is the starting pitchers, and how does
how does Flexen have a five low record with an
eight three ERA so dig a little deeper, and he's
been basically doing spot duty here and there. He hasn't
h He hasn't pitched five innings or more of the
entire season. I think the longest he's gone is maybe
four innings three and a half or three point one
three point three, three and two thirds maybe, So how
has he racked up these wins. He's probably just been
opportunistic and coming at a good time. He has no.
Eight six whip, he has no. Eight three ERA, but
that's not who he is. He is not a good picture,
and I don't see how his numbers are this good.
But then when you look at it, he's only going
in as a reliever one inning at a time, so
that might explain it. I don't know if their plan
is to leave him in as a starter or if
he's going to be like an opener for two to
three innings. I don't know that information. Maybe Adam knows.
We'll hear from him in a minute. But he's not
a good picture. And both of these lineups are hitting
really well, especially the Yankees hitting really well. The Yankees
bullpen is underperforming terribly, and I think we have a
potential to see some runs every one. Rodon is very
hot and cold guy. He can give up six runs
and then he can come back and give up no
runs for two straight starts. So he's very hot and cold.
But I think both of these lineups are going to
be able to score some runs. I don't like either
bullpen that much much, and I really don't like Flexing here.
If he's going to stay in more than three innings,
I think he's gonna get bombed. So the over would
be the only way I would go, maybe even an
over in the first five. I haven't bet it yet,
but I might.
Speaker 2: Jake says, why does Adam look so angry? Adam's angry
because he had the Diamondbacks last night and they went
one for ten with runners in scoring position. No, I,
I actually that was just my my face of deep
thought because I was trying to kind of look up
some numbers to this game. And yeah, so not angry,
although I am mad at that that Diamondbacks lost last night.
As far as this game is concerned, I'll talk about
Chris Flex. I'm not Tokyo Brandon. I'm not going to
tolerate Chris Flex and slander on this show. Former Duke,
former duce on Bear. Listen, hey, there's something. There's something
to these guys. For Brandon one Ellis had a pretty
good season this year. Here's here's what why these guys
like Eric Lower, Ben Lively, Eric Fetti. The reason a
lot of these guys are having success when they come
back from Korea is because they go to Korea and
they're allowed to pitch full games. Right, They're getting not
only are they getting the opportunity to make a few
more dollars than they would in the US, they're getting
the opportunity to go out there and throw one hundred
pitches per game, every game.
Speaker 1: And they developed Morris pitchers.
Speaker 2: So Flexen's now been back for a while, right, he's
been back since like twenty twenty one. I think he's
been back in the majors for like four years, well
majors minors. But he's in my opinion, he's become a
serviceable big leader.
Speaker 1: Now you go, you made a point. How long is
he going to be in?
Speaker 2: My guess is three to four innings here, based on
how long he's pitched at the minor league level and
the fact that they've used him a little bit out
of a bullpen. I would not give the Yankees more
than one look at him like, that's where I think
that they could get into trouble. So if he does,
let's I'm gonna give you a great example to yesterday
because another play I had. I had a one and
two day yesterday, and of course I lost the Mets
in Game two of the doubleheader. It played out exactly
as I as I hoped it would. But something they
did the Mets made a mistake, in my opinion. They
let Brandon Wadell go through the order a second time
and Jordan Westberg got him for a two run homer.
And that's what's gonna happen to Chris LExEN here. It's
gonna depend on how cute the Cubs try to get
with him against this Yankee lineup.
Speaker 1: Once through, I think Flex's thrown it good.
Speaker 2: He's throwing it great as a reliever right now, So
first time through the Yankees order, especially after the way
they won last night coming back walking it off, I
could see like him getting through this order.
Speaker 1: Once without issue.
Speaker 2: It's if the Cubs decide to let him go through
this order a second time is where you could see
a crooked number from the Yanks. Now they might not
need to do that because remember Sunday is the end
of the first half, which means teams are gonna have
some options with pitching, right Like, you actually might see
a starter in some of these games pitch in a
bulk inning role because they're not going to make a
start Monday or Tuesday. So you got to kind of
look at who's available and what teams have going on
with starting pitching. If they if you got your fourth
or fifth starter and they're not in line to pitch
until quote unquote Monday or Tuesday, that means they're not
gonna pitch until Friday. So you actually might have deeper
bullpens in some of these scenarios because you want to
get a guy a couple of innings before he doesn't
pitch until next Friday. That's something I'm gonna kind of
have to cone through with this game. I think the
Cubs are value here, especially if the Yankees take money
like they did yesterday. Thankfully I didn't go back and
bet the Mariners yesterday, Brian Leonard, but they took some
money like you said they might. If the Yanks take
money here and I can get Cubs plus one and
a half, get it down to like minus one twenty
minus one fifteen. That might be a bet I have
to make here, but that's kind of how I see
this game playing out, all right. We have a couple
of We have someone on Twitter. Hannah from Twitter says, Hey,
I can't watch it on YouTube right now, but I'd
love to talk Pirates Twins and Jake here, who.
Speaker 1: Also pointed out that I look absolutely miserable.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna try to keep the smile on my face
the rest of the show, says Skeins versus Joe Ryan
Today gonna be fun to watch.
Speaker 1: Brian Leonard.
Speaker 2: I don't know if I have a bet here, but
he's right, this is gonna be a heck of a
game to watch.
Speaker 1: What do you think Pirates Twins?
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is gonna be a good one. Skians against
Ryan currently Minnesota with Ryan, it's about one seventeen one
eighteen favorite total, seven to the under twenty or six
and a half to the over about twenty five. So
they don't expect many runs here and I don't either.
It's just been a situation where both these guys have
been very good. My mouse is really acting up today
on my computer here, so Hopefully it'll settle in a
little bit. But yeah, you got two excellent starting pitchers.
There are rumors out there right now that Joe Ryan
is on the trading block. There's been some teams that
have inquired about him, and so this may be a
last start he pitches for Minnesota, which I'd hate to
see because he's he's been there pretty much his entire
career and he's been great for them. Paul skeiins with
the four seven record one point nine to four e
ra A two point five to three expected, zero point
nine to two whip. Uh, he's greated everything except from
maybe hard hit rate fifty fifth percentile in that regard.
Everything else is in the sixties and higher barrel rate
ninety first expected the R ninety six, fastball velocity ninety six.
We know we're going to get out of him. Let's
take a look if my god, damn, okay, here we go.
Let me take a look at his splits on the
season home games two point three one e ra A
one win, on the road a one point sixty five
e R zero point nine to five whip. He's actually
been better on the road than he has been at home.
And uh, it's a good pitcher ballpark in Pittsburgh. But
if you could trade take tech to the road and
be even better, that's pretty amazing. Joe Ryan two point
seven six e RA a three point one seven expected
zero point eight nine whip. He has just been terrific
the last two years. Last year was a three point
six ARA zero point nine nine whip. Even as good
as he has been the last two years, his record
is fifteen and eleven. He hasn't gotten allowed to support
offensively from this Twins team, and that's been their problem
all year, up and down offensively. More down than up
Ryot's weakness barrel rate sixteen percentile, chase rate nineteenth, but
he's very good. Doesn't walk anybody in ninetieth percentiles, in
the eighty seventh strikeout percentile. So obviously what we look for,
and I've talked about this many times, strikeout mins Walker
show twenty three point four excellent. We look at Paul
Skeines twenty one point one. So we've got two elite pitchers,
two teams that have had trouble scoring for the most
part of the year, although they have shown some upwardness
lately in the hitting department. But as long as you
can get seven, I think that is obviously the key
number if it's three to three, So my scores are
around that seven. I like that. Also, the under, by
the way, is what I like. Also, if you take
a look at the first half, we got a number
of three, that one may actually be a little bit better.
That way you don't have to deal with the bullpens.
It wouldn't be off and I'd play an under three.
But every time I say that and I watch the
Skins game, that's what it is is low scoring games.
So either under three first half, under seven full game.
I expect these two pitch just to shine in this one.
Speaker 4: I have Schemes ranked number two in all of MLB
of all starting pitchers, And if you look at his numbers,
he's only allowed ten earned runs in his last ten starts.
That's pretty amazing. And he actually had what by his
standers would be called a clunker game against Milwaukee where
he gave up four runs, so you could really say
he's given up six runs in his last nine starts.
If you throw that game out, it's amazing stuff. Whip
is great. The one problem with Skeens is the team
almost never gives him run production or run support. There's
no way a picture this good should be four and seven.
If he played for a team with even a semi
decent lineup, he'd probably already have ten wins by Now
that being said, he doesn't have a history against this
Twins team. I have the Twins batting, I have both
of these teams batting under mediocre levels. I have both
bullpens pretty good. Both starters are really good. Joe Ryan
what stands out for me is how he's performed against
these pirates in his career. A one ninety four average
against a six eighty eight OPS. Although he does give
up a few more runs than Skeins, not meant not
much more. He's not in my top twenty for pitchers,
but he's just misses the cut two really good pitchers.
I think the better picture plays for the team with
the worst lineup, and that always means an under. So
if any way you could squeeze an under out of this,
I know seven is pretty tough to take in a
major League baseball game, but I think you can trust
both of these bullpens, so that would be the only
way I could go. It'd be tough to take a
side here. I don't have either. As a matter of fact,
I have these teams point zero point two points apart
in the overall rating. It's about as close as it gets.
So I'm not gonna take a side. Oh by the way,
let me do a promotion real quick wayger Talk is
telling us that they're going to give away three three
day flex pass. How do you enroll for that? If
you go to the replay of this video, input your
best bet of the day, and then you're a wager
talk user name, They're going to pick a random person,
three random people to give that three day Flex pass to.
So go to our replay, give us your best bet
and your wager talk id.
Speaker 1: Yep pre three day Flex pass.
Speaker 2: All you have to do, as Tokyo Brandon said, head
to head over to the replay of the show on YouTube,
drop your wager Talk to use your name and put
your best bet of the day, and you may, you know,
they may hit you up and say, hey, you want
a three day flex pass, which I believe you can
use at any time. Doesn't necessarily have to be this weekend.
Can save it for the start of the second half.
But it's a great contest and it's free to enter,
so take advantage and do that. Sold out a crowd
at target Field tonight, y from Buxton Bobblehead Night. Okay,
maybe a little juice for the Twins. That might be
That might be the best, That might be the best
angle here. I honestly like this is one I'm there's
I have a list here. There's eleven games on my
list today, which is absolutely terrifying. That's my short list
of the sixteen MLB games today. I've got eleven of them.
And this was one Twins Pirates where I was just like,
that is as coin flip as it gets. And there's
no value in an under in my opinion, even though
it you if both pitchers deal, I'm not surprised in
the least bit. So I'm just gonna move it right along.
There's just too many games going with Brian.
Speaker 3: I just wanted to point out Buckston got hurt two
games ago, didn't play yesterday. It seems like Buckston's luck
that he may be injured and not playing this game
when it's his own babble Head Day.
Speaker 1: The oft injured Byron Buckston.
Speaker 2: Although we really can't be understated how how important he
is for that Twins team, and that might be your
angle if you wait for lineups. If he's out that
Twins lineup, which doesn't pack a huge punch as it is, Man,
you take Bucks out of that lineup and it's really
just you know, lacks of teeth in my opinion. So
interesting point there, Brian, I would definitely be looking for
lineups before I bet that Twins Pirates game. All right,
Brewers team total over from dk Man to Tokyo Brandon
should be he should get a ring from the team
if they win this year. We get he like the
Brewers should be publicly acknowledging Tokyo Brandon if they win
this year, because they have been on fire since he
since he said their season was over, and they're going
into a series this weekend against the Nationals where theoretically
they should be set up for success in this series. Now,
Brian Leonard, I don't know Nationals. They let us down yesterday,
but there's they're sneaky team and they hit right handed pitching.
They're up against Quinn Priester here. Do you see them
getting the priest at all in this game?
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's been shit week for me overall, and I
did have Washington. Yesterday also had Tampa Bay and that
one was just as ugly, if not uglier. So yeah,
I can't wait for this show to be over with
so I can get get this out of my system.
I'm tired of cost some people money. But Metro Parker
five and nine record, four point seven to two, ERA
five point three nine expected one point three eight whip.
He has not been very good this year. He's really
while his ERA has taken a step back whip. Also,
he's just not If you take a look at his
stackcast page, the only positives are extension eighty third, percentile,
chase rate seventy first. But he's not gonna get too
many chases if it continues with what he's done. Part
hit rate, second percentile average ex velocity third, strikeout rate
sixth not things you want to see if you're a
fan of this Washington team. Quinn Priester, he's had really
a nice rebirth here this year after coming over to Milwaukee.
They've done a fantastic job with their pitchers all season long,
and they've got some guys coming back. They had a
guy coming back the other day pitched amazingly. But Pritcher
comes in six and two record three point five to
nine e RA three point seven eight expected one point
two seven A whip round ball rate in the ninety
fifth percentile. This is a pretty decent home run hitting
ballpark that really helps him here. Barrel rates seventy third percentile,
but just buy everything else that's in the blue avaz
EXA velocity twenty second, strikeout rate twenty fifth. So while
he has pitched a little bit better at this season,
I still have some concerns that would either appoint me
as was liked by the viewer is towards the over.
The only problem is I'm more interested in the side.
You've got a Milwaukee team, and as much as I
like him and Trigger likes them, they're coming back home
after being on the road. They've been terrific. They're coming
home first game back. Everybody's excited to see them playing
to Washington team who got their asses headed to them yesterday.
They're pitching lefty. That's not very good. As our friend
Marco would say, this is to be a fat and
sassy situation here for Milwaukee. There's no way I'm laying
this high number. We're looking at like a one to
eighty five eight and a half. I can't lay this
pretty shars much better picture than what Parker is, but
this is definitely a bad spot for Milwaukee. I think.
Speaker 4: I have a five percent play today, so you can
go to my page. Brian will have something out, Adam
will have something out. Our pages are down there, WT
Dot Buzz, Slash TV for mine.
Speaker 1: Go grab that.
Speaker 4: I have a free play up as well. So regarding
this game, I think we have one of the most
knowledgeable audiences in all of wager talk, because you guys
have already like blasted out the my leen in this
game already. But I'll give you the analysis for it.
Milwaukee's bullpen excellent right now. Washington's is not. Mitchell Parker
not a good picture. His outside numbers are a lot
better than his projection numbers. His away He's got a
five six six ERA away and that's in forty one innings,
so it's a good enough sample side to judge him
as being poor. And I mentioned earlier that Skens had
given up ten runs in his last ten starts. That's
what an elite picture does. Mitchell Parker has given up
ten runs in his last three starts, so that's what
a below average picture does, so, just to give you
a comparison, Priester really good picture. I have him ranked
seven on a curve of thirty. My numbers do and
that includes his expected numbers as well. He's been good.
He's been really good. We don't have a sample size
against these batters. He did have a rough game against Miami.
He gave up four earned That's not good enough to
get your quality start. But if you throw that out,
he gave away zero, three, one, one one. He went
on a stretch where he gave up one or less
earned runs in three starts. He is legit. His home
numbers are good. But you know Washington's been cranking it.
And we've said this on many many shows that Washington's
one of those teams books don't like. I have them
ranked number six in run production in Major League Baseball.
So I really don't really, I really don't really want
to take a side here, if you understand that English.
But just like the chat's been saying, I think Milwaukee's
team total over would be the way to go here.
I haven't played it yet, but if you can even
alter it down to three and a half from four
and a half, I think it's a good play because
Milwaukee's hitting the ball fairly well. They're going against who
I have ranked almost towards the bottom of all starting
pitchers in Mitchell Parker, and he's backed up by a
below average bullpen. So yeah, I would agree with the
Milwaukee team total here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I wish I had more faith in Parker, because
this Priester, as good as he's been, is the exact
type of picture this Nats lineup lights up. This is
the type of guy that the Nats want to face.
It's a right handed pitcher doesn't have a great fastball.
They're going to go left. They'll probably have nine lefties
in the lineup, and it's you know, he's not gonna
be able. So Priester goes like sinker slider the majority
of his pitches, which means, like you know, a lot
of them are gonna come into the left handed hitter
it's a little bit easier to handle. I wouldn't be
surprised if there's not a single right handed hitter in
the lineup tonight for the Nationals. They've done this before
where they've been able to go one through nine all lefties,
and I think they're gonna put together a lineup that's
one through nine all lefties, which is tough on Priester.
Speaker 1: I'm with you, though, TV. I'm not a big Mitchell
Parker guy.
Speaker 2: There's a lot of like it wouldn't really surprise me
if they lit him up, you know. So, as badly
as I love to like play a Nats plus one
and a half because I think they bounce back from
last night, and I agree with Brian it's a horrible
spot for the Brewers. Maybe over eight and a half
and just go for runs is the way to go.
Speaker 1: But this is what I'm gonna give some thought to
as well.
Speaker 2: Nats plus one and a half Cubs plus one and
a half are like both right there for me to
see how the market bets these games. I'm sure I'll
pick the wrong one because that's just how it goes.
But anyway, I do see value with the visitors, and
I think, even though I don't see lying value with
the over here, that's what I make it.
Speaker 1: Eight and a half.
Speaker 2: I think my handicap suggests the over. So if you
like the over, I have no way to talk you
off of that. Titan CT my guy. Anytime he's in
the show. I got to get Titan ct in here.
He has been watching my shows for the better part
of the last decade, So shout out to Titan ct.
Speaker 1: He says, can we discuss Giants Dodgers?
Speaker 3: Bryan Leonard?
Speaker 2: How can we do a Major League Baseball show today
without discussing Giants Dodgers? What was one of the biggest
rides Dodgers Padres have infringed on this rivalry a little
bit In past years, it used to be Giants Dodgers
was the rivalry out west. I think it gets some
legs this year because I think that the Giants are
going to be around in this race this season in
that division. I think they're gonna hang, maybe not the division,
but they're going to be in the knicks for a
playoff spot. And I kind of like the Giants here,
So I'm going to go to you Giants Dodgers. How
are you seeing this one?
Speaker 3: Yeah? First thing I looked at when I saw this
was I was surprised that Logan Webb was this small
of a favorite, based on going against May, who struggled
for most of the season, and the way the Dodgers
have been hitting lately. The Web comes in with basically
one twenty one twenty four favorite with a total seven
and a half. He's been very good destin May, unfortunately,
is come back to earth a little bit after an
early hot start. Comes in with a four point five
two ERA four point seven six expected one point two
three one point three to two whip. His best numbers
are at ground ball percentage is in the sixty six
percentile extension sixty four, but a lot of his things
he needs, he's not very good at his whip raids
only in the eighteenth percentile, chase rates seventeenth's back to
the R seventeenth. Coming back from having last year off,
Dylan hasn't gotten everything put together as of late, and
that is a concern here. The Giantz offense, though, has
not been good at all for a while now. They've
really been struggling. But they may only need you know,
four runs in this game to get the victory three
four runs logan web two point six to two ERA
three point one nine expected one point one six whip.
His worst thing is his fastball lost. He's never been
that great of a fastball twenty fifth percentile. In fact,
that's why he throws his four seam only seven percent
of the time. That's what I like. I don't like
guys that if you don't have a better than average fastball,
don't use it. And that's what he doesn't. He's learned
that for a while and he's been excellent in that
regard sacred percentage. He throws thirty six percent sweeper, twenty
six change, twenty one. He's also got a cutter. This
is a guy I like. Yeah, we're getting him here
at what I considered to be a pretty good price here,
So I'm gonna go with San Francisco here. So far
on the car today, I think this is one of
the games that I am heavily considering. Here. We're getting
a pretty good bargain here to go all gainst this
Dodgers teamers who'd be honest with you, we've talked about
all week long, and they've been struggling. The games. Aren't
is important to them, It's very important to San Francisco.
I like the home team here.
Speaker 4: I have Logan Webb ranked number five I believe in
all of MLB out of two hundred pictures, so he
is elite. He's a great picture and if you look
at his walk grate, it's below well below average he's
got a great walk rate. Dustin May is a picture
I don't really like. I liked him until this season,
but he's really turned me off this season. I have
him ranked twenty three out of thirty on a curve
of thirty of all pitchers, so he's not performing well.
The Dodgers bolt is not doing anything to inspire anyone
to put money on them right now. However, I am
not taking San Francisco on a side here because if
you look at Logan Webb's stats against these batters in
his career, the Dodgers have absolutely tormented him throughout his career.
They have a three to zero three average against him
and an eight twenty ops in one hundred and eighty
five at bats. So who's been doing most of the damage.
It's mostly been Mookie Bets and Freddy Freeman. And although they, yeah,
although they haven't been performing well, let's say since they
got swept by Houston, was it. The Dodgers have just
been basically mailing in this first half of the season.
They haven't even shown up. They haven't shown up at all.
And Tascar Hernandez is not playing. They're probably holding him
out until the second half. I'm not sure. Don't quote
me on that. I don't know for sure, but if
I'm going to play anything, you know, it's really hard
to bet against these Dodgers, even though they're just absolutely
sucking right now. I would like to take maybe Mookie
Bets or Freddy Freeman's hits runs RBIs over one and
a half in this one. Let me give you a
quick pro tip. Don't bet total bases. Although our show's
called total bases, it's great bet hits runs RBIs rather
than total bases because in total bases, if your guy walks,
you lose an at bat and they're only going to
get four or five at bats in the game, so
that's that's pretty steep thing to lose. So hits runs
RBI is. It happened to me the other day. I
think I had Freddy Freeman. He walked and he got
knocked in. So if your guy walks, you can still
contribute to your prop. So I'm gonna look at those
two guys. I haven't bet it yet.
Speaker 3: Freddy Freeman right now is hitting like one seventy one
over the last month. He's been in a terrible slump,
and Mookie Betts is not also not playing well, so
when they got to him, they got to him when
they were playing better and they were younger. Those are
two guys that are older, so it's good. It's good
information get out there. He did face on once this
year and he went seven innings give up two in
runs against the Dodge. I'll take that.
Speaker 4: I'm not betting it yet, I will look into it. Yeah,
if it happened like four years ago, then yeah, it's
a moot point exactly.
Speaker 2: You know, Normally I would look at this spot and say,
all right, Dodgers just lost six straight. Tough to go
against the Dodgers here, but I truly believe that their
resurgence will not come until after the All Star break.
I think I think they were a little bit mentally
checked out before this road trip. They probably thought that
they could go into Milwaukee and and get.
Speaker 1: Something out of that series.
Speaker 2: And it's like, you know, just because they've now lost
a few in a row doesn't mean it's tough, especially
like mid road trip. If they were going back home here,
I think it'd be a little bit different. But they're
still out on the road. As Brian Leonard said, these
are massive games for the Giants, like the Dodgers are fine.
They're fine. Even with the six straight losses. They still
have a five game lead on this division. Like I
don't think they're worried in the least bit. And I
don't think I don't think because they've lost six in
a row just means that they're gonna snap out of
it and you're gonna get their best effort here on
the road in a game that still means probably a
little bit more into the Giants, you know, Logan, I mean,
I think you have a clear edge starting pitching with Webb,
as the guys have pointed out. So I don't know
if I can bring myself like I'm gonna talk out
of both sides of my mouth here for a second.
Speaker 1: One.
Speaker 2: I was one of the you know, I pointed out
earlier in the week that you might see the Dodgers
sort of, you know, kind of go through the motions
into the break now they've lost six straight. But on
the other side, I do have a little bit of pause,
like maybe wanting to go against the Dodgers here after
they've lost six straight. And and I didn't bet the
Brewers at all, So like everyone's it's case by case basis, right, like,
had I like been hammered away on the Brewers in
that series, I'd be running my Brewers' money back here
with the Giants tonight personally, And if the guys want
to chime in on this, I love to hear your
opinions on this. I don't like to play something reactive,
like if I missed it to get to this point,
I don't want to jump in. If I didn't bet
against the Dodgers the first six times they lost, I
don't want to bet game number seven and have that
be the loss again. Maybe that's a flaw on my handicapping.
Maybe it's not, but that's probably what keeps me off
the Giants tonight.
Speaker 1: That being said, I'm with you. It would be.
Speaker 2: Giants or pass for me here and Colin Gregory and
the chat says giants as well.
Speaker 1: Do either of you have a follow up to that?
Does that? Does that sort of creep into either of
your guys handicapping?
Speaker 4: Ahid Brandon, Uh, I wasn't listening because I was doing
the chat, So I don't know the point you are, sorry.
Speaker 1: That's all right, move on.
Speaker 3: I know I talked about the other day that the
Dodgers really are the only games I had to win
were divisional games, and this is a divisional game, so
keep that in mind.
Speaker 2: All right, let's go to this is This is the
one I want to talk about today, and David Havily
in the chat says, thought on socks Guards need some
early day game action to get the weekend started. Well,
you came to the right place because we always have
an opinion on the Guardians and the White Sox on
this show doubleheader. And the reason I'm interested a little
bit here Brian Leonard is they tweaked the pitching, so
it looks like we're gonna have a different pitching matchup
in game one than we would have had yesterday. I
believe yesterday's matchup was Alan against Cannon. I think we're
gonna get Allan against Smith.
Speaker 4: Is that?
Speaker 1: Am I seeing that correctly? In Game one Alan and.
Speaker 3: Then Williams and Cannon in the second game.
Speaker 1: Of the double Williams and Cannon in the second game.
Speaker 2: So we'll kick it off with our resident Cleveland Guardians
expert and super fan, Brian Leonard. What do you see
for your Guardians in this doubleheader today?
Speaker 3: I don't know how much of an expert I am.
I am. I think I played Houston in every game
of that series against him in the last series. So yeah,
it has not been going good for myself and my
clients as right now, but hopefully we can turn it around.
Alan Lefty going up against Smith already here Allen in
game one basically about a one twenty favorite total of nine.
I'm not a Logan Allen fan. I prefer Smith more
for Chicago, but his innings are getting up there, and
every time he comes out lately he seems to not
be as good as he was earlier in the season.
That's kind of what a concern would be for me.
Second game, Williams has been pitching much better as of late.
He's got a major problem with his whips. He just
doesn't go in the zone enough. He tries to. He's
got a great fastball, but he tries to get the
corners and everything gets them in trouble. Going up against Canning.
I like Williams a lot more than I like Canning,
but the line in that one is basically a one
forty favorite and eight, so you're gonna have to pay
more in that one. I just don't trust the Indians, Guardians,
whatever you want to call him to win both games
to make a profit. I think this is a game,
this is a series going to go one to one
in this run, two teams that I don't really care
for the offense on, so I got to look for
something for the under. The Alan Smith at nine seems
to be a little bit high for me. I kind
of like that under if I was to play that
and without knowing what's going on in the bullpens the
second game, I can't touch, so slightly to the under
nine at minus one point fifteen here between Cleveland and
the White Sox in the first game.
Speaker 4: I'm not going to touch the first game, but I'm
definitely interested in the second game. And I'll tell you why.
I have coined the term chronic walkers. And our friend
Gavin Williams is the number one chronic walker in all
of Major League Baseball. So how much of a chronic
walker is he bases on balls per nine innings on
this season, he's five point zho seven bases on balls.
The last thirty days, he's five point three to three.
He's cranking up those walks, So I like to bet
him his walks when he faces a team that walks
two point five or more per nine innings, and Chicago
White Sox definitely fit Dot Bill. They're over three walks
per nine in their games. Gavin Williams over one and
a half walks. I'm going to jump all over it. However,
the books have caught onto this, and usually they're gonna
make him a two point five on the over under.
I use DraftKings. I'm not promoting them or anything, but
i use DraftKings for my numbers because DraftKings lets you
alt the team totals and they let you. They give
you a lot of flexibility for your betting in these props,
and they do allow walks allowed to be altered. So
his it's not out yet on DraftKings, but I imagine
when it comes out, his two or more walks, which
is essentially over one and a half, I'm guessing that'll
be about minus three hundred or something. That'll make a
nice parlay piece with a minus two hundred favorite on
a money line somewhere. So that's how I'm going to
approach Gavin Willis. I'm going to find that as a
puzzle piece or somehow I'm going to bet him to
walk two batters or more. It's almost automatic nothing's automatic
in sports betting, but this is as close as it gets.
So I'm going to use that somehow in a play
And I do have a five percent play out today, guys,
So see my page down there.
Speaker 1: Go ahead, Adam, I this Brian nailed it.
Speaker 2: The White Sox will win one game of this double header,
like the guard Like, first of all, guardians have to
be so annoyed that they're playing a double header today.
I was shocked to see a double header because typically
like they like to avoid double headers, but they really
like to avoid the having to do it the next day.
Speaker 1: Like anytime you see.
Speaker 2: It in a division interdivision, it's almost always pushed off
to a later day. It gives them time to prepare
a little bit. And so I was certain that like
three days before the All Star break, this would have
gotten pushed off to a later date. But this might
be the White Sox last trip to Cleveland this year.
So if it's the White Sox last trip to Cleveland,
then it would make sense. Or Major League Baseball just decided, hey,
it's Friday, we're gonna play the double header. So I
think that that's like difficult for both t you know,
we're three days away from the All Star break.
Speaker 1: Now you get hit with a double header.
Speaker 2: But the reason I think it's much more difficult for
Cleveland is they come off of this great series against
the Astros.
Speaker 1: They had a little bit of momentum.
Speaker 2: Now they get slapped with the rain out and it's like,
now you're stuck in Chicago with a road double header.
It just I feel like it killed their vibe a
little bit, killed some of their momentum. Whereas the White
Sox right now, their roster is, like I've said this
three times already this week, I'm mean to continue to
harp on this point because it's very important. Will Venable
is running a triple ace file team right now, where
everyone plays. It's all about getting innings in getting reps.
No one's sitting for more than a day. It's just
we're gonna play everyone, We're gonna develop everyone because we
are thirty one and sixty two and we are playing
for next year. So he's been doing this for a
couple of weeks now, where the starting lineup is different
every game. There's not one single person on this team
that's guaranteed a spot, and they're just rotating in and out.
And that's what they That's what teams have to do
in double headers because you're not you know, you're typically
not gonna burn all your guys out and play them
both legs of a double header.
Speaker 1: So the White Sox are like, this is like what
they want. This is perfect.
Speaker 2: They can play nine people the first game. They could
go with six different guys the second game if they
want to. They can call up a twenty seventh man.
Maybe it'll be Peyton Palette who's been a really good
reliever for them. I don't think he's pitched yet this
week at Triple A, so they can go twenty seventh man,
get themselves another reliever. It's a dream setup for the
White Sox, who are just you know, trying to play
ball right now and improve. And as Brian said, they're
gonna be plus money in both games. So maybe that's
the strategy here. Maybe you just go in with the mindset,
I'm gonna play White Sox. Maybe this is the strategy.
I'm gonna play White Sox.
Speaker 1: In game one.
Speaker 2: If they win, I'm out. If they lose, I'm gonna
come back and take the plus money in game two.
I prefer the Game one matchup a little well, Actually
that's not even true, because I'd like to. So this
is the annoying thing for me is I want to
fade Gavin Williams. But the guy I want to do
it with is the game one starter, So that's a
little bit annoying. I would love, I would love to
take Smith against Williams. That's not gonna happen. So I'll
probably find a way in here with the White Sox.
I'm just not sure how, and I guess I'll leave
it at that. All right, let's move a long, so
many more games to get to here. I'm gonna grab one.
Let's go to Markinson, our guy. Markinson says, anyone else
like Shape Burns strikeouts today? Well, Brian Leonard, this would
be the reprieve if you will. Chase Burns gets called
up two starts. After two starts at Triple A, Chase
Burns is thrown to the Wolves, Yankees, Red Sox at
Fenway Park.
Speaker 1: I believe who do he face after that? The Phillies.
Speaker 2: It was just like top team after top team. And
now Chase Burns gets a home start against the Rockies.
So good for Chase Burns. I'll go to you can
he take advantage of a weaker opponent right here.
Speaker 3: If he is, this will be the team to do it.
Colorado is if you take a look at Colorado so
far this year, and you take a look at the
major strikeouts, when people to go off for double digit strikeouts,
Colorado seems to be involved just about every time. It's
a young team, they strike out a lot, and they
don't walk a lot, so they just get up there
and take their hack, and really Colorado searching for anybody.
He went back down to the minor league. He's bringing
up another guy. We'll see how all that works out.
But Marquez against Burns. Burns is expensive. He's about the
two forty range right now, total of nine and a half.
Can't lay two fifty with Burns, But I do like
the situation on the strikeout Hermima Kez comes in with
a five point eighty four ERA five five point oh
five expected one sixty two whip. He's only thrown eighty
nine innings this year and he's already got ten losses.
It's been rough for him, it's been rough for the
entire team. His what he does well, he doesn't walk
a lot of players in the seventy second percentile fastball
is still pretty good sixty second percentile, but he's in
the first percentile pitching run value first and fastball run
value second. In extension fifteen strikeouts expected batting average sixth.
He's just not been good since coming back from injury,
and he's a guy I'm looking to fade. Burns, on
the other hand, is the guy that comes in with
an eight point one ERA and he's what they say
to the current line is two forty eight point one
ERA with how many times do you see that one
point nine to zer whip it's expected to err though,
is five point nine three still not the greatest, but
his fastball velostity is great ninety six percentile. He's striking
out thirty point six percent of his batteries he has
faced this year. He's got to strike out minus walk
ratio of eighteen point four because he still has problems
with walks twelve point two percent. So he's gonna come
out here, he's gonna blow try to blow him on.
I think he will. I think that's the best way
to play this is to play the pitcher strikeout over
and since he's only pitched a certain amount of innings,
he's gone three starts with ten innings, so yeah, he
hasn't really been stretched out a whole lot here, but
he wasn't the minors when he was there, So yeah,
I like that. I like the strikeout prop here. Well,
I have to get to a brand and figure out
what it is and what the cost is. But I'm
not a big strikeout guy. But Colorado strikes out against everybody.
Speaker 4: So just because the team's bad doesn't mean that they
strike out a lot. So you got to be careful
about that. But it's a spot you can take advantage
of because it's the way that I won the White
Sox pitcher over in the outs the other day, because
the White Sox are a bad team and the book
slights them, and you get advantageous numbers when they slight
a bad team. I forgot who it was that I
had the other day, but everyone was congratulating me on
the free play. I gave it out on this show
two shows ago. But anyway, you can take advantage of
these things. So do the Rocky strike out a lot?
Is the question? They strike out about seven point six
times per nine, which is about the league average. Now
Chase Burns has a thirteen point five K per nine rate,
which is unbelievable, probably not sustainable. The problem is how
deep is he going to go into the game, So
we have to get a little deeper analysis here. He
went five innings against the Yankees and struck out eight.
That's impressive. And the Yankees strike out about the same
as the Rockies, so that's kind of impressed. Well, let
me let me make sure about that. Oh, the Yankees
strike out a little more than the Rockies, but not much.
Speaker 3: So.
Speaker 4: He had a horrible outing against the Red Sox. He
got pulled at one out and he gave up five runs.
He struck out nobody in that so we can throw
that game out as an albatross, but my stats don't
throw it out. So I'm gonna have to manually do
something here, but I'll do it in just a second.
Against the Phillies, he went four point four and two
thirds innings and he struck out seven. So the Phillies strikeout,
let's take a look. Yeah, about the same as the Yankees.
So against the team that strikes out about eight times
per nine, he struck out seven and eight respectively. Today
against the Rockies, I project him at three. But that's
with that horrible game that he had against the Red Sox.
So he's averaging only thirty seven percent into his starts,
but if he finishes five innings, it'll be about fifty
five percent. So I'm going to say, let's say if
he finishes five innings. Let's just say, if he finishes
five innings, how many strikeouts is he going to get?
This is how I do my capping. If he finishes
five innings, I project him to have six strikeouts. So
I think the line is six and a half. It's
a risky proposition. The Rockies actually are a little more
disciplined than the Yankees and the Phillies at the plate.
Even though they can't hit, they don't necessarily strike out.
So that's how I would approach it. I definitely would
not bet his over six and a half, but you
count if you want. I could be wrong. I've been
wrong about the Brewers and I've been wrong about Seeger,
so I've been wrong in my past.
Speaker 2: What do you think, Adam, I'm gonna read off the
Albuquerque Isotopes lineup from the other day. I just want
to show you. I want to demonstrate what we're dealing
with here. Their lineup right, now or the other day
was Amador Tovar, van Heira, Heliard, Bouchard, Owen Miller, Drew,
Romo Shunk.
Speaker 1: Okay, you could flip.
Speaker 2: You could take that lineup and flip it with the
lineup the Rockies have at the big league level right now,
and no one would know the difference. It's basically the
same thing they are. They are as close to a
Triple A team at the big league level that I've
ever that I can personally remember in a very long time,
like that that gets thrown around facetiously like this team's
Triple A team rarely is that ever the case? I
cannot remember a major league team that resembled a top
to bottom, full roster pitch everything that resembled a Triple
A team as much as this year's Colorado Rockies team has.
And why do I bring that up right now? Because
at triple in the minors this year, Chase Burns at
a one point seven to seven ERA, a zero point
seven to seven whip and a one point one sixty
seven batting average against before he got called up. Here's
his three starts. So he made his three starts in
June prior to getting called up. Was Louisville against Scranton
seven innings, one run, three hit, seven strikeouts, against the
Iowa Cubs five and a third, two runs, seven strikeouts,
and then his final start at Double A seven shutout innings,
six strikeouts. I don't know if he'll get over it
like that six and a half strikeout line seems to
be priced appropriately, but he's probably gonna pitch good today,
so that would be I don't know what you do
with that, because obviously, well do you bet the Reds
They're a huge money line. I don't know that I
would advise that. Find a way to play Chase Burns.
If you're comfortable with over six and a half strikeouts,
go for it. If you're comfortable would like to record
a win, go for it. He's probably gonna shove today.
That's all I have to say. Go ahead, Brian.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I was gonna say, record a win. Do you
have that number, Brandon.
Speaker 4: For him to record a win?
Speaker 1: I do not.
Speaker 4: Is it available?
Speaker 3: I don't know, I don't know.
Speaker 4: I'm not sure. I'm not sure either. The record a
win props were not on DraftKings when we started the show,
but some people in the comments are saying Williams Strikeouts
prop is up, so they've probably added some things since
we started.
Speaker 2: So while I definitely want to start locking parlay legs in,
but first again, it's a free chance to win a
flex pass. So the go to the comments of the
YouTube show, throw your wager Talk user name in your
best bet for the day, and we've given out They
they've been very generous with this.
Speaker 1: I think they're giving out three a show.
Speaker 2: When I did the promo the other day on my thing,
I said they're gonna give three out total. I'm pretty
sure they're giving out three on every show, so that
means three people in the comments for this show will
win a flex pass for free. All you had to
do is put a comment with your wager Talk to
use your name and your best bet for the day.
Speaker 1: So go and do that.
Speaker 2: Brian Leonard, do you want to throw a game out
there that maybe you'll You'll use base parlay.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll use to par Also, I talked about this yesterday.
They've got the second half baseball package up for you
right now. Three seventy nine gets you the second half
of the world second half of the baseball season all
the way to the World Series. Three seventy nine. Hello
of a deal. If you're looking for one of us
or any other handicapper on a voyager talk, I'm gonna
go back to that Pittsburgh game. I checked the Bullpens.
The Bullpens looking pretty good coming into here, so we
talked about this earlier. I'll be short Pittsburgh under seven
is why I'm looking in this one. The Bullpens are
both in pretty good shape, and the current number on
that is minus one twenty. So I'll play Pittsburgh under
seven minus one twenty and hopefully I can end the
week with a victory here and a part of our
triple play here.
Speaker 4: I'll give my leg of the parlay. It's a game
we already covered, so I'll do it very quickly. But
I like the White Sox in Game two against Williams
plus plus one and a half. So it's the Adam
Trigger Special White Sox plus one and a half. Brian,
do you have a number on that?
Speaker 3: And we'll have to look for that. I'll hit the
But you know your mouth is not logic dot com.
Speaker 4: Uh maybe your cat still right now?
Speaker 3: And uh okay, White Sox plus one and a half
second Game two, Canon, I guess Williams correct. Yep, Yeah,
at about a one fifty three minus one fifty three.
Speaker 4: I'll take that. My numbers show the White Sox have
every advantage, although albeit small advantage, but they do have
an advantage in every category there. So I like it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I'll throw just one more point out to that,
because I very much agree with you. This is a
scenario where I even if the White Sox win Game
one of the doubleheader, it doesn't really make me like
them less because I truly believe it's He's got different
guys slated for both games, and.
Speaker 1: It's gonna they're gonna.
Speaker 2: I don't think the game plays out any differently for
them based on what happens in Game one. I truly
believe the plan for Venable is to like literally play
every player on his roster, and he would do it
either like his Game two plans not gonna deviate regardless
of what happens in game one.
Speaker 1: So I don't.
Speaker 2: I don't, just I really agree. That's a that's a
good play TV. I like that, Brian, what was yours again?
Just so I can get it?
Speaker 4: Adam Adam has never disagreed with a White Sox plus
one point five by the.
Speaker 2: Way, under seven minus one, twenty under seven minus one,
twenty Pirates twins car guy, Mike, that's an interesting so
I never I'm not in a state like I've never
really done much with prize picks or anything like that.
But he says Chase fantasy points is thirty one and
a half on prize that would be solid.
Speaker 1: I'm assuming he means prize picks. Yeah.
Speaker 2: Like listen, Chase Burns in daily fantasy probably a good
play today. I don't know if he's undervalued at all
because of his e e er. Brian's a fantasy guy.
Speaker 1: I don't know.
Speaker 2: Again, I would just look for a way in with
Chase Burns. However you can make that work in your head,
I think is good.
Speaker 4: Adam, let me ask you a question about him in
the miners. Did he go deep into his starts or
was he like.
Speaker 2: Just absolutely dominant seven innings almost every minor league start
seven innings, blowing, I mean, just blowing teams away. That's
that's why, Listen, that's why the Reds called him up
when they did, because they're looking at their team. They're
looking at like, hey, we're in this. We'd be doing ourselves.
You know, even if it's at the expense of maybe
this kid's confidence. We have to see if he can
do that at the big league level, because we're in
a race. And if he can go up to the
big leagues and do what he just did at Double
A and Triple A and the minors, like, we're sitting
on a potential ace. That's why they called him up
when they did, because of how insanely dominant he was
at the Double A and triple.
Speaker 4: Because of that Red Sox start. You know, the books
might not be giving him the credit he deserves. This
could be the breakout game. Like I said, if he
goes six innings today, he's gonna get that strikeout. Prop.
Speaker 1: Here's one.
Speaker 2: Let's let's do another game and then I'll lock my
leg in and we'll get out of here. Let's go,
Let's go out West Angels.
Speaker 1: D Backs.
Speaker 2: Still very salty about the Diamondbacks last night. They just
they had so much traffic on the bases and one
for ten with runners in scoring position, ten left on base,
and losing a tough game four to three. They come
back tonight in a spot that I think favors them again.
Speaker 1: Brian Leonard I don't know.
Speaker 2: I'm tempted to come back with Arizona, but I don't
know if I can do it after last weight's debacle.
Speaker 1: What do you think, Angels dbacks.
Speaker 3: Nelton going for Arizona the lefty Anderson going for the Angels,
who continues to find ways to win in this area.
Arizona's about a one to fifteen road favorite total of
nine and a half to the under minus one twenty.
Ryan Nelson all the season three point three nine, ERA,
three point eight six expected zero point nine to eight
whip very good, extension eighty fourth percentile. Fastball velocity pretty good,
seventy second percentile. And that's important because he's basically a
fastball pitcher. Sixty three percent of his pitches are the forsammer.
If he's got the passball working, he's been tough. But
if you can get it to work, his next best
pitch is slider eighty second. Excuse me, the slider's twelve
percent cutter eleven, curve ten change five. So it's really
just his fastball. And if you take a look at
his average eggs velocity only in the fifteenth percentile, chase
rate eighteenth fifth percent eighteenth, so as much as I'd
liked him this year, not fully buying in right now.
Tyler Anderson four point one to nine, ERA four point
four to zero, expected one point three to eight whip
very good, heart hit rate eighty first percentile average eas
velocity seventy ninth. His weakness he doesn't have much of
a fastball. He's in the second percentile in fastball, and
yet his four seam is his most popular because he
only throws at thirty eight percent of the time. He's
got to change at thirty four and a cutter at
twenty two, and then once in a while throw a
sinker or a slider. But if you're throwing your fastball
thirty eight percent of the time and your velocity is
in the second percentile and your ground ball rate is
only in the nine percent tile, that's not a good thing.
When I take a look at these two pictures going
against the opposition here, I kind of like the over
because of that, where the over is nine and a
half minus one twenty, so you can go they score
ten runs at even money, basically, and that's what you're
getting here. And it would not surprise me if we
saw that good hitting from both of these teams here,
so I kind of like the over get to ten
get a winner.
Speaker 1: I kind of.
Speaker 4: Agree with Brian because Nelson, although his numbers are really good,
and actually his expected numbers are also very good, he
has a fairly high ERA en a low whip, which
means they're not touching him very often, but when they
touch him, they're touching him. On the road, he has
very poor ERA five plus. Tyler Anderson has a five
plus ERA at home. So we got a picture one
pitcher who's bat at home and is pitching it home,
and another pitcher who's bad on the road and is
pitching on the road. Two lineups that are well Diamondbacks
are not really catching fire. They got hot now, they're
a little cold right now, but they have a lot
of talent and a lot of power hitting. The Angels
are actually hot right now, fairly hot, I mean not
red hot, but fairly hot. And this Arizona bullpen, although
they are recovering from me trashing them all first half
of the season, they're still not up to the rank
of fifteen the Mendoza line. They're a little bit below it.
I would think an Angels team total here because I
think the books might be giving Nelson a little too
much credit here while he's on the road. Maybe I
have to look into it a little more. But just
looking at the numbers and bouncing it off my head,
that would be the way I would check more before.
Speaker 3: I bet.
Speaker 2: There was once a time, not long ago. You'd actually
go back to last year where this Diamondbacks team pummeled
left handed pitching, absolutely crushed lefties. They were number one
in every category against left handed pitching for a lot
of last year, and it is a very similar lineup,
which is why it's been a little bit surprising to
me that so far this year they haven't.
Speaker 1: They haven't been as good.
Speaker 2: Now they are approaching being elite against.
Speaker 1: Left handed pitching once again.
Speaker 2: WRC plus coming into today for the Diamondbacks against lefties
is a ninety nine, which is tenth in Major League
Baseball based on the last the previous two years that
you got to remember, this team played a long stretch
of time without Kenl Marte. They played for a stretch
without Corbyn Carroll, so they have had some guys out,
But like the lineup itself, is not that much different
from last year's lineup that demolished left handed pitching. So
I asked myself, why not, like, why are they not
number one this year or why, like, you know, are
they gonna get there?
Speaker 1: Are they gonna trend toward that?
Speaker 2: It certainly matters when you have a guy like Marte
out for as long as he was out at least
a month. You know, Carol, I know he's a left
handed hitter, but I still think he's.
Speaker 1: A plus guy in that lineup.
Speaker 2: So I look at this and say, hmm, Diamondbacks tenth
WRC plus against left handed pitching.
Speaker 1: I think that's gonna get better.
Speaker 2: I think as you have a full strength Diamondbacks lineup
over the course of the year the season, based on
what they did last year, they can probably only improve.
I think they trend toward top five against lefties. And
the reason the reason I say that is the last
two seasons, a lot of these a lot this lineup,
which was many of the same guys, just crushed left
handed pitching. So I will make the Diamondbacks my parlay leg.
I've been a big fan of Ryan Nelson for a
long time. And you know, even though even though I
haven't found great places, great spots to bet on him
for as far as like client plays and stuff. Though
this might actually make my card. I think he can
handle the angels. Not I'm not buying the angels like
some others are at this point. So I'll run it
back if you will with the Diamondbacks minus one. What
do I got there, Brian? What do we got for
a DBAX money line here?
Speaker 4: Well, Brian's looking for that. Guys, don't forget to leave
a comment on the replay. Leave your wager tuch ID
user name, and give us your best bet and you
will be in the drawing for a three day all
access flex pass. Go ahead, Brian, Sorry.
Speaker 3: Arizona minus one fifteen perfect.
Speaker 2: All right, So we have reached the end of the show.
We have the three teamers have been a little cold.
But you know, this is a great illustration of parlay betting,
like and how it's really difficult to win betting parlays. Right,
Like we hit a couple, it's hard to hit three teamers.
That being said, we've met you know, we've never been negative,
and we're gonna go win or lose.
Speaker 1: Here.
Speaker 2: We're going into the All Star break ahead since we
started to do this. So for every dollar risk, if
you played these all equally, for every dollar risk, you're
up six dollars and ninety cents, or you can say
plus six point nine units. Either way, David profitable. That
being said, we are on a little cold streak with
the parlay. Believe we all lost our parlay leg yesterday.
I think that's the first time that's happening in quite
some time. Maybe so maybe Tokyo Brandon, this is the
day we all win our parlay leg and we hit
we hit the three team or this is plus four.
Speaker 4: And I win my five percent play.
Speaker 1: Hopefully we can only hope, Yeah, we can only hope.
Need I need a winner.
Speaker 2: Two hasn't been the best week for me in MLB
after a really good five week run, So I'm I'm
kind of with Brian. I'm just trying to survive till Sunday,
get to the break and then we come out of
the break, you know, ready to rock. But anyway, three
team parlay for the show. The final one of the
first half is going to be White Sox plus one
and a half. That is game two, Game two, White
Sox plus one and a half for Tokyo Brandon pirates
twins under seven for Brian Leonard and then I'm on
Diamondbacks minus one fifteen one more time. That's White Sox
plus one and a half in game two of their
doubleheader with the Guardians for TB Pirates twins under seven
Diamondbacks money line full game minus one fifteen pays out
plus four seventy one. Hopefully we can start or we
can finish the first half with a winner.
Speaker 1: Guys, we're off till next Friday.
Speaker 2: There's no games to talk about, so we're gonna go
do whatever it is that we do when we're not
talking games. I hope everyone has a great weekend. Yeah,
I know, I get restless during that four day stretch.
I gotta be honest. Maybe I'll go outside or something.
Maybe I'll cut it out. Yeah, anyway, we will be
We will be back on Friday morning week from today
to kick off the second half of the Major League
Baseball season nine am, and then of course every day
the rest of the way Monday through Friday, nine am.
Appreciate all of you guys making this show, you know,
one of the most popular shows on the wager Talk
platform through the first half. We can't wait to have
a great second half with you guys, so like and
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