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Speaker 1: All right, welcome in.

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Speaker 2: It is Friday, the final total basis before the All

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Star Break.

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Speaker 1: We've hit the literal home stretch.

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Speaker 2: It's the last show that we're gonna do until next Friday,

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because there's no games after Sunday until next Friday.

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Speaker 1: So we've got to make it a good one. Sixteen games.

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Speaker 2: I was actually surprised to see a doubleheader today, especially

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in the Division.

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Speaker 1: Usually they don't do that.

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Speaker 2: But who knows, maybe Chicago doesn't make the trip to

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Cleveland the rest of the year. So we've got a

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full slate and we're gonna get started with what I'm

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going to make this the feature game. I think this

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series has gained in importance now. Brian Leonard, Cubs Yankees,

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Yankee Stadium. What a crazy finish to that Yankee Mariners

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game last night, A no hitter into the eighth inning

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that turned into a walk off win for the Yankees.

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The Cubs did bounce back, but suddenly those Brewers are

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on their tail. They could if the Cubs don't get

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something out of this series, Brian Leonard, they could go

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into the All Star Break in second place in the

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end of Central. If you told me that a couple

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of weeks ago. I would not have believed that was possible.

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But here we are, Cubs Yankees, Yankee Stadium. How are

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you seeing this one?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? The Cubs got us to such a great start.

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They've been something. We just expect that to continue all

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season long, and they haven't been. But I really like

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this Cubs team. I think eventually they're gonna win this

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division and be a threat in the playoffs. They got

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flexing going today against Carlos Rodan. Chris Flexen is a

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guy who they've threatened to put into the starting rotation

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because he's done so well, very similar to what Kansas

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City had done with Boobitch yes last year. But Boobitch

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and Flexin are two different pitchers. I've watched him pitch.

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He's been a little bit lucky in my regards, so

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I don't know if that's gonna work out. Yankee is

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prohibitive favorite, though they're coming in about a one to

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eighty favorite, with a total of nine mentioned Chris Flexen

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this year. Keep in mind this is this year. He's

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been in the bullpen the entire time. Zero point eight

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three ERA three point twenty six expected zero point eighty

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six whip. The reason why I'm skeptical he is. In

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his career, he's got a four point seventy five ERA

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and one point four to six WHIP. He's never been

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anything but basically a four A player. But the reason

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is his strikeout rate. He's never had a good strikeout right.

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Last year it was seventeen point four. The year before

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it was fifteen point nine. Keep in mind he was starting.

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When you go to the bullpen, you could just let

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it out. Well, he's letting it out at thirteen point

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nine percent. That is not good. That is terrible for

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a strikeout pitcher. Obviously, with the walk rate, he's got

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a strikeout minus walk a seven point three, not very good.

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You take a look at his deadcast page, he's second

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percentile strikeouts, fifth percentile whiffs. He is good with the

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barrel and the hard hit rate. He's been very good

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in that regard. But if you can't strike somebody out,

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more balls are in play. That major defense and I

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don't like those type of pitchers. I don't want to

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wish bad luck on anybody, but I think he's hit

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his peak so far this year. Telos are down three

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point three zh ERA three point one two, expected one

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point three whips been very good, poor extension, but his

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wik percentage is eighty nine percentel strike out right eighty fifth,

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expected batting average eighty ninth. Take a quick look at

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his splits here. Home games three point twenty five ERA,

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road games three point three six very good there. If

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we remember the last time out, he paced the Mets

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and he got hit hard. I gave up six or

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in runs in five innings. Before that, he'd had some

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pretty good starts, but he got hit by the Red Sox,

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and so it seems that he sees to get hit

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worse with good heading teams. But you know, he's played

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a lot of good handing teams lately. You know the

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match Toronto, the Reds could be a good heading team

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of times, the Angels home runs, you know Boston. Why so,

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considering who he's faced, I think he's done a pretty

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good job. I prefer the Mats here by just or

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excuse me, the Yankees here. I just can't lay that number.

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It's it's just too high for me.

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Speaker 4: So the way I approach this one, the first thing

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I look at is the starting pitchers, and how does

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how does Flexen have a five low record with an

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eight three ERA so dig a little deeper, and he's

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been basically doing spot duty here and there. He hasn't

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h He hasn't pitched five innings or more of the

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entire season. I think the longest he's gone is maybe

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four innings three and a half or three point one

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three point three, three and two thirds maybe, So how

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has he racked up these wins. He's probably just been

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opportunistic and coming at a good time. He has no.

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Eight six whip, he has no. Eight three ERA, but

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that's not who he is. He is not a good picture,

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and I don't see how his numbers are this good.

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But then when you look at it, he's only going

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in as a reliever one inning at a time, so

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that might explain it. I don't know if their plan

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is to leave him in as a starter or if

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he's going to be like an opener for two to

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three innings. I don't know that information. Maybe Adam knows.

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We'll hear from him in a minute. But he's not

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a good picture. And both of these lineups are hitting

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really well, especially the Yankees hitting really well. The Yankees

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bullpen is underperforming terribly, and I think we have a

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potential to see some runs every one. Rodon is very

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hot and cold guy. He can give up six runs

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and then he can come back and give up no

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runs for two straight starts. So he's very hot and cold.

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But I think both of these lineups are going to

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be able to score some runs. I don't like either

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bullpen that much much, and I really don't like Flexing here.

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If he's going to stay in more than three innings,

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I think he's gonna get bombed. So the over would

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be the only way I would go, maybe even an

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over in the first five. I haven't bet it yet,

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but I might.

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Speaker 2: Jake says, why does Adam look so angry? Adam's angry

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because he had the Diamondbacks last night and they went

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one for ten with runners in scoring position. No, I,

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I actually that was just my my face of deep

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thought because I was trying to kind of look up

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some numbers to this game. And yeah, so not angry,

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although I am mad at that that Diamondbacks lost last night.

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As far as this game is concerned, I'll talk about

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Chris Flex. I'm not Tokyo Brandon. I'm not going to

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tolerate Chris Flex and slander on this show. Former Duke,

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former duce on Bear. Listen, hey, there's something. There's something

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to these guys. For Brandon one Ellis had a pretty

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good season this year. Here's here's what why these guys

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like Eric Lower, Ben Lively, Eric Fetti. The reason a

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lot of these guys are having success when they come

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back from Korea is because they go to Korea and

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they're allowed to pitch full games. Right, They're getting not

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only are they getting the opportunity to make a few

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more dollars than they would in the US, they're getting

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the opportunity to go out there and throw one hundred

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pitches per game, every game.

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Speaker 1: And they developed Morris pitchers.

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Speaker 2: So Flexen's now been back for a while, right, he's

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been back since like twenty twenty one. I think he's

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been back in the majors for like four years, well

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majors minors. But he's in my opinion, he's become a

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serviceable big leader.

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Speaker 1: Now you go, you made a point. How long is

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he going to be in?

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Speaker 2: My guess is three to four innings here, based on

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how long he's pitched at the minor league level and

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the fact that they've used him a little bit out

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of a bullpen. I would not give the Yankees more

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than one look at him like, that's where I think

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that they could get into trouble. So if he does,

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let's I'm gonna give you a great example to yesterday

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because another play I had. I had a one and

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two day yesterday, and of course I lost the Mets

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in Game two of the doubleheader. It played out exactly

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as I as I hoped it would. But something they

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did the Mets made a mistake, in my opinion. They

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let Brandon Wadell go through the order a second time

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and Jordan Westberg got him for a two run homer.

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And that's what's gonna happen to Chris LExEN here. It's

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gonna depend on how cute the Cubs try to get

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with him against this Yankee lineup.

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Speaker 1: Once through, I think Flex's thrown it good.

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Speaker 2: He's throwing it great as a reliever right now, So

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first time through the Yankees order, especially after the way

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they won last night coming back walking it off, I

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could see like him getting through this order.

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Speaker 1: Once without issue.

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Speaker 2: It's if the Cubs decide to let him go through

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this order a second time is where you could see

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a crooked number from the Yanks. Now they might not

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need to do that because remember Sunday is the end

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of the first half, which means teams are gonna have

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some options with pitching, right Like, you actually might see

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a starter in some of these games pitch in a

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bulk inning role because they're not going to make a

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start Monday or Tuesday. So you got to kind of

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look at who's available and what teams have going on

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with starting pitching. If they if you got your fourth

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or fifth starter and they're not in line to pitch

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until quote unquote Monday or Tuesday, that means they're not

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gonna pitch until Friday. So you actually might have deeper

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bullpens in some of these scenarios because you want to

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get a guy a couple of innings before he doesn't

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pitch until next Friday. That's something I'm gonna kind of

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have to cone through with this game. I think the

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Cubs are value here, especially if the Yankees take money

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like they did yesterday. Thankfully I didn't go back and

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bet the Mariners yesterday, Brian Leonard, but they took some

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money like you said they might. If the Yanks take

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money here and I can get Cubs plus one and

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a half, get it down to like minus one twenty

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minus one fifteen. That might be a bet I have

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to make here, but that's kind of how I see

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this game playing out, all right. We have a couple

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of We have someone on Twitter. Hannah from Twitter says, Hey,

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I can't watch it on YouTube right now, but I'd

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love to talk Pirates Twins and Jake here, who.

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Speaker 1: Also pointed out that I look absolutely miserable.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna try to keep the smile on my face

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the rest of the show, says Skeins versus Joe Ryan

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Today gonna be fun to watch.

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Speaker 1: Brian Leonard.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if I have a bet here, but

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he's right, this is gonna be a heck of a

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game to watch.

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Speaker 1: What do you think Pirates Twins?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, this is gonna be a good one. Skians against

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Ryan currently Minnesota with Ryan, it's about one seventeen one

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eighteen favorite total, seven to the under twenty or six

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and a half to the over about twenty five. So

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they don't expect many runs here and I don't either.

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It's just been a situation where both these guys have

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been very good. My mouse is really acting up today

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on my computer here, so Hopefully it'll settle in a

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little bit. But yeah, you got two excellent starting pitchers.

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There are rumors out there right now that Joe Ryan

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is on the trading block. There's been some teams that

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have inquired about him, and so this may be a

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last start he pitches for Minnesota, which I'd hate to

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see because he's he's been there pretty much his entire

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career and he's been great for them. Paul skeiins with

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the four seven record one point nine to four e

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ra A two point five to three expected, zero point

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nine to two whip. Uh, he's greated everything except from

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maybe hard hit rate fifty fifth percentile in that regard.

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Everything else is in the sixties and higher barrel rate

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ninety first expected the R ninety six, fastball velocity ninety six.

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We know we're going to get out of him. Let's

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take a look if my god, damn, okay, here we go.

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Let me take a look at his splits on the

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season home games two point three one e ra A

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one win, on the road a one point sixty five

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e R zero point nine to five whip. He's actually

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been better on the road than he has been at home.

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And uh, it's a good pitcher ballpark in Pittsburgh. But

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if you could trade take tech to the road and

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00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:57,200
be even better, that's pretty amazing. Joe Ryan two point

241
00:11:57,240 --> 00:12:00,519
seven six e RA a three point one seven expected

242
00:12:00,600 --> 00:12:03,480
zero point eight nine whip. He has just been terrific

243
00:12:03,480 --> 00:12:05,600
the last two years. Last year was a three point

244
00:12:05,639 --> 00:12:09,519
six ARA zero point nine nine whip. Even as good

245
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as he has been the last two years, his record

246
00:12:12,480 --> 00:12:14,600
is fifteen and eleven. He hasn't gotten allowed to support

247
00:12:14,679 --> 00:12:17,799
offensively from this Twins team, and that's been their problem

248
00:12:17,840 --> 00:12:20,399
all year, up and down offensively. More down than up

249
00:12:22,639 --> 00:12:26,480
Ryot's weakness barrel rate sixteen percentile, chase rate nineteenth, but

250
00:12:26,600 --> 00:12:29,559
he's very good. Doesn't walk anybody in ninetieth percentiles, in

251
00:12:29,600 --> 00:12:33,200
the eighty seventh strikeout percentile. So obviously what we look for,

252
00:12:33,240 --> 00:12:36,360
and I've talked about this many times, strikeout mins Walker

253
00:12:36,559 --> 00:12:41,799
show twenty three point four excellent. We look at Paul

254
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Skeines twenty one point one. So we've got two elite pitchers,

255
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two teams that have had trouble scoring for the most

256
00:12:51,240 --> 00:12:54,200
part of the year, although they have shown some upwardness

257
00:12:55,480 --> 00:12:59,000
lately in the hitting department. But as long as you

258
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can get seven, I think that is obviously the key

259
00:13:02,279 --> 00:13:05,000
number if it's three to three, So my scores are

260
00:13:05,000 --> 00:13:09,320
around that seven. I like that. Also, the under, by

261
00:13:09,360 --> 00:13:11,120
the way, is what I like. Also, if you take

262
00:13:11,120 --> 00:13:14,240
a look at the first half, we got a number

263
00:13:14,279 --> 00:13:17,960
of three, that one may actually be a little bit better.

264
00:13:18,120 --> 00:13:20,200
That way you don't have to deal with the bullpens.

265
00:13:21,000 --> 00:13:22,879
It wouldn't be off and I'd play an under three.

266
00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:26,159
But every time I say that and I watch the

267
00:13:26,200 --> 00:13:29,120
Skins game, that's what it is is low scoring games.

268
00:13:29,200 --> 00:13:33,120
So either under three first half, under seven full game.

269
00:13:33,759 --> 00:13:36,639
I expect these two pitch just to shine in this one.

270
00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:41,519
Speaker 4: I have Schemes ranked number two in all of MLB

271
00:13:42,320 --> 00:13:46,080
of all starting pitchers, And if you look at his numbers,

272
00:13:46,519 --> 00:13:49,600
he's only allowed ten earned runs in his last ten starts.

273
00:13:49,639 --> 00:13:52,600
That's pretty amazing. And he actually had what by his

274
00:13:52,639 --> 00:13:56,039
standers would be called a clunker game against Milwaukee where

275
00:13:56,039 --> 00:14:00,519
he gave up four runs, so you could really say

276
00:14:00,559 --> 00:14:03,720
he's given up six runs in his last nine starts.

277
00:14:03,799 --> 00:14:07,159
If you throw that game out, it's amazing stuff. Whip

278
00:14:07,200 --> 00:14:10,320
is great. The one problem with Skeens is the team

279
00:14:10,440 --> 00:14:15,320
almost never gives him run production or run support. There's

280
00:14:15,360 --> 00:14:17,399
no way a picture this good should be four and seven.

281
00:14:17,759 --> 00:14:20,519
If he played for a team with even a semi

282
00:14:20,600 --> 00:14:23,759
decent lineup, he'd probably already have ten wins by Now

283
00:14:24,679 --> 00:14:27,480
that being said, he doesn't have a history against this

284
00:14:27,639 --> 00:14:31,159
Twins team. I have the Twins batting, I have both

285
00:14:31,200 --> 00:14:35,840
of these teams batting under mediocre levels. I have both

286
00:14:35,879 --> 00:14:39,159
bullpens pretty good. Both starters are really good. Joe Ryan

287
00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:41,840
what stands out for me is how he's performed against

288
00:14:41,919 --> 00:14:44,399
these pirates in his career. A one ninety four average

289
00:14:44,440 --> 00:14:47,840
against a six eighty eight OPS. Although he does give

290
00:14:47,919 --> 00:14:51,639
up a few more runs than Skeins, not meant not

291
00:14:51,799 --> 00:14:55,240
much more. He's not in my top twenty for pitchers,

292
00:14:55,279 --> 00:14:59,039
but he's just misses the cut two really good pitchers.

293
00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:01,360
I think the better picture plays for the team with

294
00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:03,480
the worst lineup, and that always means an under. So

295
00:15:03,679 --> 00:15:05,919
if any way you could squeeze an under out of this,

296
00:15:06,279 --> 00:15:08,799
I know seven is pretty tough to take in a

297
00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:11,799
major League baseball game, but I think you can trust

298
00:15:11,879 --> 00:15:15,000
both of these bullpens, so that would be the only

299
00:15:15,039 --> 00:15:17,320
way I could go. It'd be tough to take a

300
00:15:17,399 --> 00:15:20,759
side here. I don't have either. As a matter of fact,

301
00:15:20,960 --> 00:15:25,120
I have these teams point zero point two points apart

302
00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:27,559
in the overall rating. It's about as close as it gets.

303
00:15:27,639 --> 00:15:30,960
So I'm not gonna take a side. Oh by the way,

304
00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:33,440
let me do a promotion real quick wayger Talk is

305
00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:38,080
telling us that they're going to give away three three

306
00:15:38,200 --> 00:15:42,519
day flex pass. How do you enroll for that? If

307
00:15:42,519 --> 00:15:46,440
you go to the replay of this video, input your

308
00:15:46,679 --> 00:15:49,000
best bet of the day, and then you're a wager

309
00:15:49,039 --> 00:15:51,960
talk user name, They're going to pick a random person,

310
00:15:52,039 --> 00:15:55,240
three random people to give that three day Flex pass to.

311
00:15:55,399 --> 00:15:58,279
So go to our replay, give us your best bet

312
00:15:58,320 --> 00:16:00,720
and your wager talk id.

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00:16:01,519 --> 00:16:03,440
Speaker 1: Yep pre three day Flex pass.

314
00:16:03,440 --> 00:16:05,519
Speaker 2: All you have to do, as Tokyo Brandon said, head

315
00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:08,559
to head over to the replay of the show on YouTube,

316
00:16:08,759 --> 00:16:10,679
drop your wager Talk to use your name and put

317
00:16:10,679 --> 00:16:12,559
your best bet of the day, and you may, you know,

318
00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:14,600
they may hit you up and say, hey, you want

319
00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:16,679
a three day flex pass, which I believe you can

320
00:16:16,799 --> 00:16:20,080
use at any time. Doesn't necessarily have to be this weekend.

321
00:16:20,159 --> 00:16:22,519
Can save it for the start of the second half.

322
00:16:22,559 --> 00:16:25,440
But it's a great contest and it's free to enter,

323
00:16:25,559 --> 00:16:28,639
so take advantage and do that. Sold out a crowd

324
00:16:28,639 --> 00:16:32,480
at target Field tonight, y from Buxton Bobblehead Night. Okay,

325
00:16:32,519 --> 00:16:34,440
maybe a little juice for the Twins. That might be

326
00:16:34,559 --> 00:16:36,679
That might be the best, That might be the best

327
00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:40,679
angle here. I honestly like this is one I'm there's

328
00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:43,320
I have a list here. There's eleven games on my

329
00:16:43,360 --> 00:16:46,159
list today, which is absolutely terrifying. That's my short list

330
00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:50,440
of the sixteen MLB games today. I've got eleven of them.

331
00:16:50,679 --> 00:16:53,720
And this was one Twins Pirates where I was just like,

332
00:16:53,759 --> 00:16:56,960
that is as coin flip as it gets. And there's

333
00:16:57,000 --> 00:16:59,480
no value in an under in my opinion, even though

334
00:16:59,799 --> 00:17:02,600
it you if both pitchers deal, I'm not surprised in

335
00:17:02,639 --> 00:17:05,400
the least bit. So I'm just gonna move it right along.

336
00:17:05,640 --> 00:17:07,160
There's just too many games going with Brian.

337
00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:10,160
Speaker 3: I just wanted to point out Buckston got hurt two

338
00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:14,039
games ago, didn't play yesterday. It seems like Buckston's luck

339
00:17:14,119 --> 00:17:16,319
that he may be injured and not playing this game

340
00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:19,799
when it's his own babble Head Day.

341
00:17:20,440 --> 00:17:22,440
Speaker 1: The oft injured Byron Buckston.

342
00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:25,599
Speaker 2: Although we really can't be understated how how important he

343
00:17:25,720 --> 00:17:28,079
is for that Twins team, and that might be your

344
00:17:28,119 --> 00:17:30,880
angle if you wait for lineups. If he's out that

345
00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:35,559
Twins lineup, which doesn't pack a huge punch as it is, Man,

346
00:17:35,599 --> 00:17:38,240
you take Bucks out of that lineup and it's really

347
00:17:38,359 --> 00:17:41,720
just you know, lacks of teeth in my opinion. So

348
00:17:42,119 --> 00:17:45,119
interesting point there, Brian, I would definitely be looking for

349
00:17:45,200 --> 00:17:48,119
lineups before I bet that Twins Pirates game. All right,

350
00:17:49,079 --> 00:17:54,680
Brewers team total over from dk Man to Tokyo Brandon

351
00:17:54,799 --> 00:17:57,680
should be he should get a ring from the team

352
00:17:57,759 --> 00:18:00,519
if they win this year. We get he like the

353
00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:03,799
Brewers should be publicly acknowledging Tokyo Brandon if they win

354
00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:07,319
this year, because they have been on fire since he

355
00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:09,880
since he said their season was over, and they're going

356
00:18:09,920 --> 00:18:12,799
into a series this weekend against the Nationals where theoretically

357
00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:15,799
they should be set up for success in this series. Now,

358
00:18:15,799 --> 00:18:20,480
Brian Leonard, I don't know Nationals. They let us down yesterday,

359
00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:24,119
but there's they're sneaky team and they hit right handed pitching.

360
00:18:24,279 --> 00:18:26,920
They're up against Quinn Priester here. Do you see them

361
00:18:26,920 --> 00:18:28,359
getting the priest at all in this game?

362
00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:33,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's been shit week for me overall, and I

363
00:18:33,200 --> 00:18:37,279
did have Washington. Yesterday also had Tampa Bay and that

364
00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:41,039
one was just as ugly, if not uglier. So yeah,

365
00:18:41,079 --> 00:18:44,079
I can't wait for this show to be over with

366
00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:48,039
so I can get get this out of my system.

367
00:18:48,279 --> 00:18:51,240
I'm tired of cost some people money. But Metro Parker

368
00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:54,119
five and nine record, four point seven to two, ERA

369
00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:57,640
five point three nine expected one point three eight whip.

370
00:18:57,680 --> 00:18:59,680
He has not been very good this year. He's really

371
00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:04,920
while his ERA has taken a step back whip. Also,

372
00:19:05,079 --> 00:19:07,079
he's just not If you take a look at his

373
00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:11,240
stackcast page, the only positives are extension eighty third, percentile,

374
00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:14,759
chase rate seventy first. But he's not gonna get too

375
00:19:14,799 --> 00:19:19,079
many chases if it continues with what he's done. Part

376
00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:23,359
hit rate, second percentile average ex velocity third, strikeout rate

377
00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:27,400
sixth not things you want to see if you're a

378
00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:31,839
fan of this Washington team. Quinn Priester, he's had really

379
00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:35,440
a nice rebirth here this year after coming over to Milwaukee.

380
00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:39,240
They've done a fantastic job with their pitchers all season long,

381
00:19:39,559 --> 00:19:41,519
and they've got some guys coming back. They had a

382
00:19:41,559 --> 00:19:45,599
guy coming back the other day pitched amazingly. But Pritcher

383
00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:47,680
comes in six and two record three point five to

384
00:19:47,759 --> 00:19:51,039
nine e RA three point seven eight expected one point

385
00:19:51,079 --> 00:19:54,079
two seven A whip round ball rate in the ninety

386
00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:57,279
fifth percentile. This is a pretty decent home run hitting

387
00:19:57,319 --> 00:20:01,640
ballpark that really helps him here. Barrel rates seventy third percentile,

388
00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:04,839
but just buy everything else that's in the blue avaz

389
00:20:04,839 --> 00:20:08,720
EXA velocity twenty second, strikeout rate twenty fifth. So while

390
00:20:08,720 --> 00:20:10,680
he has pitched a little bit better at this season,

391
00:20:10,839 --> 00:20:14,160
I still have some concerns that would either appoint me

392
00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:19,559
as was liked by the viewer is towards the over.

393
00:20:21,079 --> 00:20:25,960
The only problem is I'm more interested in the side.

394
00:20:26,680 --> 00:20:28,720
You've got a Milwaukee team, and as much as I

395
00:20:28,839 --> 00:20:32,400
like him and Trigger likes them, they're coming back home

396
00:20:32,839 --> 00:20:36,519
after being on the road. They've been terrific. They're coming

397
00:20:36,599 --> 00:20:40,279
home first game back. Everybody's excited to see them playing

398
00:20:40,279 --> 00:20:43,160
to Washington team who got their asses headed to them yesterday.

399
00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:48,680
They're pitching lefty. That's not very good. As our friend

400
00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:50,160
Marco would say, this is to be a fat and

401
00:20:50,160 --> 00:20:53,720
sassy situation here for Milwaukee. There's no way I'm laying

402
00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:56,920
this high number. We're looking at like a one to

403
00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:59,720
eighty five eight and a half. I can't lay this

404
00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:03,559
pretty shars much better picture than what Parker is, but

405
00:21:04,519 --> 00:21:07,599
this is definitely a bad spot for Milwaukee. I think.

406
00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:12,359
Speaker 4: I have a five percent play today, so you can

407
00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:14,839
go to my page. Brian will have something out, Adam

408
00:21:14,839 --> 00:21:19,119
will have something out. Our pages are down there, WT

409
00:21:19,319 --> 00:21:21,440
Dot Buzz, Slash TV for mine.

410
00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:22,799
Speaker 1: Go grab that.

411
00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:25,400
Speaker 4: I have a free play up as well. So regarding

412
00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:29,240
this game, I think we have one of the most

413
00:21:29,319 --> 00:21:34,359
knowledgeable audiences in all of wager talk, because you guys

414
00:21:34,559 --> 00:21:38,359
have already like blasted out the my leen in this

415
00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:41,640
game already. But I'll give you the analysis for it.

416
00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:47,440
Milwaukee's bullpen excellent right now. Washington's is not. Mitchell Parker

417
00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:51,799
not a good picture. His outside numbers are a lot

418
00:21:51,839 --> 00:21:55,200
better than his projection numbers. His away He's got a

419
00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:58,359
five six six ERA away and that's in forty one innings,

420
00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:01,240
so it's a good enough sample side to judge him

421
00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:06,160
as being poor. And I mentioned earlier that Skens had

422
00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:09,240
given up ten runs in his last ten starts. That's

423
00:22:09,319 --> 00:22:11,640
what an elite picture does. Mitchell Parker has given up

424
00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:13,559
ten runs in his last three starts, so that's what

425
00:22:13,599 --> 00:22:16,440
a below average picture does, so, just to give you

426
00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:21,599
a comparison, Priester really good picture. I have him ranked

427
00:22:21,599 --> 00:22:24,039
seven on a curve of thirty. My numbers do and

428
00:22:24,079 --> 00:22:28,480
that includes his expected numbers as well. He's been good.

429
00:22:28,759 --> 00:22:30,839
He's been really good. We don't have a sample size

430
00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:35,000
against these batters. He did have a rough game against Miami.

431
00:22:35,519 --> 00:22:39,960
He gave up four earned That's not good enough to

432
00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:42,839
get your quality start. But if you throw that out,

433
00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:45,599
he gave away zero, three, one, one one. He went

434
00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:48,240
on a stretch where he gave up one or less

435
00:22:48,319 --> 00:22:52,119
earned runs in three starts. He is legit. His home

436
00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:56,359
numbers are good. But you know Washington's been cranking it.

437
00:22:56,400 --> 00:22:59,039
And we've said this on many many shows that Washington's

438
00:22:59,039 --> 00:23:01,319
one of those teams books don't like. I have them

439
00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:04,880
ranked number six in run production in Major League Baseball.

440
00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:08,480
So I really don't really, I really don't really want

441
00:23:08,519 --> 00:23:11,640
to take a side here, if you understand that English.

442
00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:15,079
But just like the chat's been saying, I think Milwaukee's

443
00:23:15,119 --> 00:23:17,000
team total over would be the way to go here.

444
00:23:17,039 --> 00:23:19,920
I haven't played it yet, but if you can even

445
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:21,680
alter it down to three and a half from four

446
00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:23,480
and a half, I think it's a good play because

447
00:23:23,519 --> 00:23:26,759
Milwaukee's hitting the ball fairly well. They're going against who

448
00:23:26,839 --> 00:23:29,599
I have ranked almost towards the bottom of all starting

449
00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:32,720
pitchers in Mitchell Parker, and he's backed up by a

450
00:23:32,759 --> 00:23:35,720
below average bullpen. So yeah, I would agree with the

451
00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:37,200
Milwaukee team total here.

452
00:23:39,519 --> 00:23:42,599
Speaker 2: Yeah, I wish I had more faith in Parker, because

453
00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:46,119
this Priester, as good as he's been, is the exact

454
00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:49,440
type of picture this Nats lineup lights up. This is

455
00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:51,839
the type of guy that the Nats want to face.

456
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:55,400
It's a right handed pitcher doesn't have a great fastball.

457
00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:58,680
They're going to go left. They'll probably have nine lefties

458
00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:02,359
in the lineup, and it's you know, he's not gonna

459
00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:06,279
be able. So Priester goes like sinker slider the majority

460
00:24:06,319 --> 00:24:09,240
of his pitches, which means, like you know, a lot

461
00:24:09,279 --> 00:24:11,160
of them are gonna come into the left handed hitter

462
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:13,799
it's a little bit easier to handle. I wouldn't be

463
00:24:13,839 --> 00:24:17,200
surprised if there's not a single right handed hitter in

464
00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:19,880
the lineup tonight for the Nationals. They've done this before

465
00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:23,119
where they've been able to go one through nine all lefties,

466
00:24:23,279 --> 00:24:25,200
and I think they're gonna put together a lineup that's

467
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:27,799
one through nine all lefties, which is tough on Priester.

468
00:24:28,599 --> 00:24:30,759
Speaker 1: I'm with you, though, TV. I'm not a big Mitchell

469
00:24:30,799 --> 00:24:31,400
Parker guy.

470
00:24:31,599 --> 00:24:34,400
Speaker 2: There's a lot of like it wouldn't really surprise me

471
00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:38,400
if they lit him up, you know. So, as badly

472
00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:40,440
as I love to like play a Nats plus one

473
00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:42,720
and a half because I think they bounce back from

474
00:24:42,759 --> 00:24:45,240
last night, and I agree with Brian it's a horrible

475
00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:49,160
spot for the Brewers. Maybe over eight and a half

476
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:51,319
and just go for runs is the way to go.

477
00:24:52,519 --> 00:24:54,319
Speaker 1: But this is what I'm gonna give some thought to

478
00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:54,759
as well.

479
00:24:54,839 --> 00:24:56,559
Speaker 2: Nats plus one and a half Cubs plus one and

480
00:24:56,599 --> 00:25:00,200
a half are like both right there for me to

481
00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:02,920
see how the market bets these games. I'm sure I'll

482
00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:05,480
pick the wrong one because that's just how it goes.

483
00:25:05,759 --> 00:25:08,920
But anyway, I do see value with the visitors, and

484
00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:12,559
I think, even though I don't see lying value with

485
00:25:12,599 --> 00:25:14,160
the over here, that's what I make it.

486
00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:15,000
Speaker 1: Eight and a half.

487
00:25:15,319 --> 00:25:18,039
Speaker 2: I think my handicap suggests the over. So if you

488
00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:20,000
like the over, I have no way to talk you

489
00:25:20,079 --> 00:25:24,640
off of that. Titan CT my guy. Anytime he's in

490
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:26,319
the show. I got to get Titan ct in here.

491
00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:29,799
He has been watching my shows for the better part

492
00:25:29,839 --> 00:25:32,359
of the last decade, So shout out to Titan ct.

493
00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:35,519
Speaker 1: He says, can we discuss Giants Dodgers?

494
00:25:36,039 --> 00:25:36,599
Speaker 3: Bryan Leonard?

495
00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:38,440
Speaker 2: How can we do a Major League Baseball show today

496
00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:43,920
without discussing Giants Dodgers? What was one of the biggest

497
00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:47,440
rides Dodgers Padres have infringed on this rivalry a little

498
00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:50,359
bit In past years, it used to be Giants Dodgers

499
00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:53,319
was the rivalry out west. I think it gets some

500
00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:55,440
legs this year because I think that the Giants are

501
00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:58,160
going to be around in this race this season in

502
00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:00,720
that division. I think they're gonna hang, maybe not the division,

503
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:01,799
but they're going to be in the knicks for a

504
00:26:01,799 --> 00:26:04,640
playoff spot. And I kind of like the Giants here,

505
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:06,359
So I'm going to go to you Giants Dodgers. How

506
00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:07,200
are you seeing this one?

507
00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:09,880
Speaker 3: Yeah? First thing I looked at when I saw this

508
00:26:10,079 --> 00:26:12,759
was I was surprised that Logan Webb was this small

509
00:26:12,799 --> 00:26:16,680
of a favorite, based on going against May, who struggled

510
00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:19,960
for most of the season, and the way the Dodgers

511
00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:22,920
have been hitting lately. The Web comes in with basically

512
00:26:23,079 --> 00:26:28,279
one twenty one twenty four favorite with a total seven

513
00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:33,480
and a half. He's been very good destin May, unfortunately,

514
00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:36,119
is come back to earth a little bit after an

515
00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:39,039
early hot start. Comes in with a four point five

516
00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:42,880
two ERA four point seven six expected one point two

517
00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:47,720
three one point three to two whip. His best numbers

518
00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:49,759
are at ground ball percentage is in the sixty six

519
00:26:49,799 --> 00:26:53,960
percentile extension sixty four, but a lot of his things

520
00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:56,200
he needs, he's not very good at his whip raids

521
00:26:56,279 --> 00:26:59,640
only in the eighteenth percentile, chase rates seventeenth's back to

522
00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:05,680
the R seventeenth. Coming back from having last year off,

523
00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:10,720
Dylan hasn't gotten everything put together as of late, and

524
00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:13,799
that is a concern here. The Giantz offense, though, has

525
00:27:13,839 --> 00:27:16,119
not been good at all for a while now. They've

526
00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:19,720
really been struggling. But they may only need you know,

527
00:27:20,079 --> 00:27:22,640
four runs in this game to get the victory three

528
00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:26,160
four runs logan web two point six to two ERA

529
00:27:26,519 --> 00:27:29,880
three point one nine expected one point one six whip.

530
00:27:30,799 --> 00:27:33,119
His worst thing is his fastball lost. He's never been

531
00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:37,200
that great of a fastball twenty fifth percentile. In fact,

532
00:27:37,319 --> 00:27:39,640
that's why he throws his four seam only seven percent

533
00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:42,039
of the time. That's what I like. I don't like

534
00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:46,039
guys that if you don't have a better than average fastball,

535
00:27:46,079 --> 00:27:49,200
don't use it. And that's what he doesn't. He's learned

536
00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:51,319
that for a while and he's been excellent in that

537
00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:55,359
regard sacred percentage. He throws thirty six percent sweeper, twenty

538
00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:58,680
six change, twenty one. He's also got a cutter. This

539
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:01,359
is a guy I like. Yeah, we're getting him here

540
00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:03,720
at what I considered to be a pretty good price here,

541
00:28:04,079 --> 00:28:09,440
So I'm gonna go with San Francisco here. So far

542
00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:12,039
on the car today, I think this is one of

543
00:28:12,119 --> 00:28:15,200
the games that I am heavily considering. Here. We're getting

544
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:17,680
a pretty good bargain here to go all gainst this

545
00:28:17,799 --> 00:28:20,240
Dodgers teamers who'd be honest with you, we've talked about

546
00:28:20,279 --> 00:28:23,079
all week long, and they've been struggling. The games. Aren't

547
00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:27,400
is important to them, It's very important to San Francisco.

548
00:28:27,839 --> 00:28:28,839
I like the home team here.

549
00:28:31,279 --> 00:28:35,160
Speaker 4: I have Logan Webb ranked number five I believe in

550
00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:37,160
all of MLB out of two hundred pictures, so he

551
00:28:37,279 --> 00:28:41,440
is elite. He's a great picture and if you look

552
00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:46,160
at his walk grate, it's below well below average he's

553
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:49,200
got a great walk rate. Dustin May is a picture

554
00:28:49,279 --> 00:28:52,200
I don't really like. I liked him until this season,

555
00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:54,000
but he's really turned me off this season. I have

556
00:28:54,079 --> 00:28:56,000
him ranked twenty three out of thirty on a curve

557
00:28:56,039 --> 00:28:58,839
of thirty of all pitchers, so he's not performing well.

558
00:28:59,119 --> 00:29:03,359
The Dodgers bolt is not doing anything to inspire anyone

559
00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:06,880
to put money on them right now. However, I am

560
00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:10,000
not taking San Francisco on a side here because if

561
00:29:10,039 --> 00:29:13,359
you look at Logan Webb's stats against these batters in

562
00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:18,680
his career, the Dodgers have absolutely tormented him throughout his career.

563
00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:20,799
They have a three to zero three average against him

564
00:29:21,079 --> 00:29:23,319
and an eight twenty ops in one hundred and eighty

565
00:29:23,319 --> 00:29:25,960
five at bats. So who's been doing most of the damage.

566
00:29:26,559 --> 00:29:32,440
It's mostly been Mookie Bets and Freddy Freeman. And although they, yeah,

567
00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:37,559
although they haven't been performing well, let's say since they

568
00:29:37,559 --> 00:29:41,200
got swept by Houston, was it. The Dodgers have just

569
00:29:41,240 --> 00:29:43,799
been basically mailing in this first half of the season.

570
00:29:43,839 --> 00:29:46,680
They haven't even shown up. They haven't shown up at all.

571
00:29:46,799 --> 00:29:49,240
And Tascar Hernandez is not playing. They're probably holding him

572
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:52,319
out until the second half. I'm not sure. Don't quote

573
00:29:52,319 --> 00:29:54,839
me on that. I don't know for sure, but if

574
00:29:54,839 --> 00:29:57,839
I'm going to play anything, you know, it's really hard

575
00:29:57,839 --> 00:30:01,279
to bet against these Dodgers, even though they're just absolutely

576
00:30:01,359 --> 00:30:04,559
sucking right now. I would like to take maybe Mookie

577
00:30:04,559 --> 00:30:07,359
Bets or Freddy Freeman's hits runs RBIs over one and

578
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:09,240
a half in this one. Let me give you a

579
00:30:09,319 --> 00:30:13,319
quick pro tip. Don't bet total bases. Although our show's

580
00:30:13,359 --> 00:30:17,000
called total bases, it's great bet hits runs RBIs rather

581
00:30:17,039 --> 00:30:20,119
than total bases because in total bases, if your guy walks,

582
00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:22,720
you lose an at bat and they're only going to

583
00:30:22,759 --> 00:30:24,599
get four or five at bats in the game, so

584
00:30:24,880 --> 00:30:27,559
that's that's pretty steep thing to lose. So hits runs

585
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:29,240
RBI is. It happened to me the other day. I

586
00:30:29,279 --> 00:30:32,039
think I had Freddy Freeman. He walked and he got

587
00:30:32,079 --> 00:30:34,759
knocked in. So if your guy walks, you can still

588
00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:37,480
contribute to your prop. So I'm gonna look at those

589
00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:38,839
two guys. I haven't bet it yet.

590
00:30:39,279 --> 00:30:42,240
Speaker 3: Freddy Freeman right now is hitting like one seventy one

591
00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:44,200
over the last month. He's been in a terrible slump,

592
00:30:44,599 --> 00:30:46,640
and Mookie Betts is not also not playing well, so

593
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:48,880
when they got to him, they got to him when

594
00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:51,000
they were playing better and they were younger. Those are

595
00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:54,559
two guys that are older, so it's good. It's good

596
00:30:54,599 --> 00:30:56,519
information get out there. He did face on once this

597
00:30:56,599 --> 00:30:59,039
year and he went seven innings give up two in

598
00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:01,559
runs against the Dodge. I'll take that.

599
00:31:01,799 --> 00:31:04,519
Speaker 4: I'm not betting it yet, I will look into it. Yeah,

600
00:31:04,599 --> 00:31:06,720
if it happened like four years ago, then yeah, it's

601
00:31:06,759 --> 00:31:08,000
a moot point exactly.

602
00:31:10,759 --> 00:31:13,359
Speaker 2: You know, Normally I would look at this spot and say,

603
00:31:13,400 --> 00:31:16,880
all right, Dodgers just lost six straight. Tough to go

604
00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:19,720
against the Dodgers here, but I truly believe that their

605
00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:23,039
resurgence will not come until after the All Star break.

606
00:31:23,119 --> 00:31:25,799
I think I think they were a little bit mentally

607
00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:28,519
checked out before this road trip. They probably thought that

608
00:31:28,559 --> 00:31:31,880
they could go into Milwaukee and and get.

609
00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:32,920
Speaker 1: Something out of that series.

610
00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:35,799
Speaker 2: And it's like, you know, just because they've now lost

611
00:31:35,839 --> 00:31:39,240
a few in a row doesn't mean it's tough, especially

612
00:31:39,279 --> 00:31:42,640
like mid road trip. If they were going back home here,

613
00:31:42,680 --> 00:31:44,640
I think it'd be a little bit different. But they're

614
00:31:44,920 --> 00:31:47,480
still out on the road. As Brian Leonard said, these

615
00:31:47,519 --> 00:31:51,000
are massive games for the Giants, like the Dodgers are fine.

616
00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:53,720
They're fine. Even with the six straight losses. They still

617
00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:57,240
have a five game lead on this division. Like I

618
00:31:57,480 --> 00:31:59,880
don't think they're worried in the least bit. And I

619
00:32:00,039 --> 00:32:02,279
don't think I don't think because they've lost six in

620
00:32:02,279 --> 00:32:05,000
a row just means that they're gonna snap out of

621
00:32:05,039 --> 00:32:08,000
it and you're gonna get their best effort here on

622
00:32:08,039 --> 00:32:10,559
the road in a game that still means probably a

623
00:32:10,599 --> 00:32:14,759
little bit more into the Giants, you know, Logan, I mean,

624
00:32:14,759 --> 00:32:17,160
I think you have a clear edge starting pitching with Webb,

625
00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:19,920
as the guys have pointed out. So I don't know

626
00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:22,200
if I can bring myself like I'm gonna talk out

627
00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:23,799
of both sides of my mouth here for a second.

628
00:32:23,880 --> 00:32:24,079
Speaker 1: One.

629
00:32:24,559 --> 00:32:28,440
Speaker 2: I was one of the you know, I pointed out

630
00:32:28,519 --> 00:32:30,319
earlier in the week that you might see the Dodgers

631
00:32:30,559 --> 00:32:33,359
sort of, you know, kind of go through the motions

632
00:32:33,359 --> 00:32:35,799
into the break now they've lost six straight. But on

633
00:32:35,839 --> 00:32:38,960
the other side, I do have a little bit of pause,

634
00:32:39,079 --> 00:32:42,240
like maybe wanting to go against the Dodgers here after

635
00:32:42,279 --> 00:32:45,759
they've lost six straight. And and I didn't bet the

636
00:32:45,759 --> 00:32:49,480
Brewers at all, So like everyone's it's case by case basis, right, like,

637
00:32:49,759 --> 00:32:51,960
had I like been hammered away on the Brewers in

638
00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:54,920
that series, I'd be running my Brewers' money back here

639
00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:58,759
with the Giants tonight personally, And if the guys want

640
00:32:58,759 --> 00:33:00,559
to chime in on this, I love to hear your

641
00:33:00,839 --> 00:33:05,960
opinions on this. I don't like to play something reactive,

642
00:33:06,039 --> 00:33:08,279
like if I missed it to get to this point,

643
00:33:08,599 --> 00:33:10,839
I don't want to jump in. If I didn't bet

644
00:33:10,839 --> 00:33:13,359
against the Dodgers the first six times they lost, I

645
00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:15,920
don't want to bet game number seven and have that

646
00:33:15,960 --> 00:33:19,359
be the loss again. Maybe that's a flaw on my handicapping.

647
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:22,119
Maybe it's not, but that's probably what keeps me off

648
00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:22,880
the Giants tonight.

649
00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:25,240
Speaker 1: That being said, I'm with you. It would be.

650
00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:27,119
Speaker 2: Giants or pass for me here and Colin Gregory and

651
00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:28,960
the chat says giants as well.

652
00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:30,279
Speaker 1: Do either of you have a follow up to that?

653
00:33:30,359 --> 00:33:32,440
Does that? Does that sort of creep into either of

654
00:33:32,480 --> 00:33:33,519
your guys handicapping?

655
00:33:34,559 --> 00:33:39,640
Speaker 4: Ahid Brandon, Uh, I wasn't listening because I was doing

656
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:41,960
the chat, So I don't know the point you are, sorry.

657
00:33:41,839 --> 00:33:42,839
Speaker 1: That's all right, move on.

658
00:33:43,319 --> 00:33:46,559
Speaker 3: I know I talked about the other day that the

659
00:33:46,599 --> 00:33:48,799
Dodgers really are the only games I had to win

660
00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:51,119
were divisional games, and this is a divisional game, so

661
00:33:51,640 --> 00:33:53,359
keep that in mind.

662
00:33:54,480 --> 00:33:56,279
Speaker 2: All right, let's go to this is This is the

663
00:33:56,319 --> 00:33:58,759
one I want to talk about today, and David Havily

664
00:33:58,839 --> 00:34:02,640
in the chat says, thought on socks Guards need some

665
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:05,519
early day game action to get the weekend started. Well,

666
00:34:05,559 --> 00:34:08,079
you came to the right place because we always have

667
00:34:08,159 --> 00:34:11,039
an opinion on the Guardians and the White Sox on

668
00:34:11,079 --> 00:34:15,119
this show doubleheader. And the reason I'm interested a little

669
00:34:15,119 --> 00:34:18,039
bit here Brian Leonard is they tweaked the pitching, so

670
00:34:18,119 --> 00:34:20,920
it looks like we're gonna have a different pitching matchup

671
00:34:21,039 --> 00:34:23,559
in game one than we would have had yesterday. I

672
00:34:23,599 --> 00:34:27,719
believe yesterday's matchup was Alan against Cannon. I think we're

673
00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:30,639
gonna get Allan against Smith.

674
00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:31,000
Speaker 4: Is that?

675
00:34:31,400 --> 00:34:34,360
Speaker 1: Am I seeing that correctly? In Game one Alan and.

676
00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:36,480
Speaker 3: Then Williams and Cannon in the second game.

677
00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:38,280
Speaker 1: Of the double Williams and Cannon in the second game.

678
00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:41,119
Speaker 2: So we'll kick it off with our resident Cleveland Guardians

679
00:34:41,159 --> 00:34:44,360
expert and super fan, Brian Leonard. What do you see

680
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:46,239
for your Guardians in this doubleheader today?

681
00:34:46,599 --> 00:34:48,519
Speaker 3: I don't know how much of an expert I am.

682
00:34:48,599 --> 00:34:50,440
I am. I think I played Houston in every game

683
00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:54,920
of that series against him in the last series. So yeah,

684
00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:56,639
it has not been going good for myself and my

685
00:34:56,679 --> 00:34:59,679
clients as right now, but hopefully we can turn it around.

686
00:35:00,519 --> 00:35:04,360
Alan Lefty going up against Smith already here Allen in

687
00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:08,199
game one basically about a one twenty favorite total of nine.

688
00:35:08,719 --> 00:35:12,519
I'm not a Logan Allen fan. I prefer Smith more

689
00:35:12,559 --> 00:35:16,360
for Chicago, but his innings are getting up there, and

690
00:35:16,559 --> 00:35:19,119
every time he comes out lately he seems to not

691
00:35:19,239 --> 00:35:22,000
be as good as he was earlier in the season.

692
00:35:23,440 --> 00:35:26,199
That's kind of what a concern would be for me.

693
00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:30,400
Second game, Williams has been pitching much better as of late.

694
00:35:30,599 --> 00:35:36,159
He's got a major problem with his whips. He just

695
00:35:36,199 --> 00:35:40,840
doesn't go in the zone enough. He tries to. He's

696
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:45,280
got a great fastball, but he tries to get the

697
00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:47,840
corners and everything gets them in trouble. Going up against Canning.

698
00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:49,599
I like Williams a lot more than I like Canning,

699
00:35:49,639 --> 00:35:52,280
but the line in that one is basically a one

700
00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:54,519
forty favorite and eight, so you're gonna have to pay

701
00:35:54,559 --> 00:35:58,679
more in that one. I just don't trust the Indians, Guardians,

702
00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:03,199
whatever you want to call him to win both games

703
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:05,719
to make a profit. I think this is a game,

704
00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:07,239
this is a series going to go one to one

705
00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:11,360
in this run, two teams that I don't really care

706
00:36:11,480 --> 00:36:13,400
for the offense on, so I got to look for

707
00:36:13,519 --> 00:36:17,480
something for the under. The Alan Smith at nine seems

708
00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:19,199
to be a little bit high for me. I kind

709
00:36:19,199 --> 00:36:20,760
of like that under if I was to play that

710
00:36:21,519 --> 00:36:24,440
and without knowing what's going on in the bullpens the

711
00:36:24,800 --> 00:36:27,639
second game, I can't touch, so slightly to the under

712
00:36:27,719 --> 00:36:30,159
nine at minus one point fifteen here between Cleveland and

713
00:36:30,159 --> 00:36:31,400
the White Sox in the first game.

714
00:36:34,039 --> 00:36:37,400
Speaker 4: I'm not going to touch the first game, but I'm

715
00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:40,719
definitely interested in the second game. And I'll tell you why.

716
00:36:41,559 --> 00:36:45,280
I have coined the term chronic walkers. And our friend

717
00:36:45,360 --> 00:36:50,239
Gavin Williams is the number one chronic walker in all

718
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:52,960
of Major League Baseball. So how much of a chronic

719
00:36:53,000 --> 00:36:56,960
walker is he bases on balls per nine innings on

720
00:36:57,039 --> 00:37:01,320
this season, he's five point zho seven bases on balls.

721
00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:03,599
The last thirty days, he's five point three to three.

722
00:37:03,639 --> 00:37:06,559
He's cranking up those walks, So I like to bet

723
00:37:06,639 --> 00:37:11,000
him his walks when he faces a team that walks

724
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:14,400
two point five or more per nine innings, and Chicago

725
00:37:14,400 --> 00:37:17,599
White Sox definitely fit Dot Bill. They're over three walks

726
00:37:17,599 --> 00:37:21,440
per nine in their games. Gavin Williams over one and

727
00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:23,880
a half walks. I'm going to jump all over it. However,

728
00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:26,880
the books have caught onto this, and usually they're gonna

729
00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:29,920
make him a two point five on the over under.

730
00:37:30,760 --> 00:37:34,039
I use DraftKings. I'm not promoting them or anything, but

731
00:37:34,039 --> 00:37:37,199
i use DraftKings for my numbers because DraftKings lets you

732
00:37:37,280 --> 00:37:40,159
alt the team totals and they let you. They give

733
00:37:40,159 --> 00:37:43,039
you a lot of flexibility for your betting in these props,

734
00:37:43,679 --> 00:37:49,800
and they do allow walks allowed to be altered. So

735
00:37:50,119 --> 00:37:53,440
his it's not out yet on DraftKings, but I imagine

736
00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:56,400
when it comes out, his two or more walks, which

737
00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:59,880
is essentially over one and a half, I'm guessing that'll

738
00:37:59,880 --> 00:38:02,000
be about minus three hundred or something. That'll make a

739
00:38:02,079 --> 00:38:06,119
nice parlay piece with a minus two hundred favorite on

740
00:38:06,159 --> 00:38:08,000
a money line somewhere. So that's how I'm going to

741
00:38:08,039 --> 00:38:11,280
approach Gavin Willis. I'm going to find that as a

742
00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:14,000
puzzle piece or somehow I'm going to bet him to

743
00:38:14,079 --> 00:38:17,920
walk two batters or more. It's almost automatic nothing's automatic

744
00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:20,760
in sports betting, but this is as close as it gets.

745
00:38:21,320 --> 00:38:25,280
So I'm going to use that somehow in a play

746
00:38:25,320 --> 00:38:27,400
And I do have a five percent play out today, guys,

747
00:38:27,519 --> 00:38:29,519
So see my page down there.

748
00:38:30,079 --> 00:38:35,079
Speaker 1: Go ahead, Adam, I this Brian nailed it.

749
00:38:35,159 --> 00:38:37,760
Speaker 2: The White Sox will win one game of this double header,

750
00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:41,199
like the guard Like, first of all, guardians have to

751
00:38:41,199 --> 00:38:43,239
be so annoyed that they're playing a double header today.

752
00:38:43,639 --> 00:38:47,559
I was shocked to see a double header because typically

753
00:38:47,639 --> 00:38:50,599
like they like to avoid double headers, but they really

754
00:38:50,639 --> 00:38:53,400
like to avoid the having to do it the next day.

755
00:38:53,679 --> 00:38:54,960
Speaker 1: Like anytime you see.

756
00:38:54,719 --> 00:38:58,960
Speaker 2: It in a division interdivision, it's almost always pushed off

757
00:38:59,320 --> 00:39:01,800
to a later day. It gives them time to prepare

758
00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:04,199
a little bit. And so I was certain that like

759
00:39:04,599 --> 00:39:06,840
three days before the All Star break, this would have

760
00:39:06,880 --> 00:39:09,639
gotten pushed off to a later date. But this might

761
00:39:09,679 --> 00:39:11,719
be the White Sox last trip to Cleveland this year.

762
00:39:11,760 --> 00:39:13,960
So if it's the White Sox last trip to Cleveland,

763
00:39:14,239 --> 00:39:17,880
then it would make sense. Or Major League Baseball just decided, hey,

764
00:39:18,039 --> 00:39:21,039
it's Friday, we're gonna play the double header. So I

765
00:39:21,079 --> 00:39:24,559
think that that's like difficult for both t you know,

766
00:39:24,639 --> 00:39:26,280
we're three days away from the All Star break.

767
00:39:26,360 --> 00:39:28,079
Speaker 1: Now you get hit with a double header.

768
00:39:28,119 --> 00:39:30,639
Speaker 2: But the reason I think it's much more difficult for

769
00:39:30,719 --> 00:39:34,199
Cleveland is they come off of this great series against

770
00:39:34,239 --> 00:39:35,000
the Astros.

771
00:39:35,320 --> 00:39:36,920
Speaker 1: They had a little bit of momentum.

772
00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:39,800
Speaker 2: Now they get slapped with the rain out and it's like,

773
00:39:40,079 --> 00:39:42,840
now you're stuck in Chicago with a road double header.

774
00:39:42,840 --> 00:39:45,159
It just I feel like it killed their vibe a

775
00:39:45,159 --> 00:39:48,559
little bit, killed some of their momentum. Whereas the White

776
00:39:48,639 --> 00:39:52,880
Sox right now, their roster is, like I've said this

777
00:39:52,960 --> 00:39:54,880
three times already this week, I'm mean to continue to

778
00:39:54,920 --> 00:39:57,360
harp on this point because it's very important. Will Venable

779
00:39:58,159 --> 00:40:02,159
is running a triple ace file team right now, where

780
00:40:02,519 --> 00:40:07,400
everyone plays. It's all about getting innings in getting reps.

781
00:40:07,719 --> 00:40:10,960
No one's sitting for more than a day. It's just

782
00:40:11,239 --> 00:40:14,119
we're gonna play everyone, We're gonna develop everyone because we

783
00:40:14,199 --> 00:40:17,000
are thirty one and sixty two and we are playing

784
00:40:17,039 --> 00:40:20,360
for next year. So he's been doing this for a

785
00:40:20,360 --> 00:40:23,480
couple of weeks now, where the starting lineup is different

786
00:40:23,519 --> 00:40:26,880
every game. There's not one single person on this team

787
00:40:26,920 --> 00:40:30,440
that's guaranteed a spot, and they're just rotating in and out.

788
00:40:31,039 --> 00:40:32,920
And that's what they That's what teams have to do

789
00:40:32,960 --> 00:40:35,039
in double headers because you're not you know, you're typically

790
00:40:35,039 --> 00:40:37,280
not gonna burn all your guys out and play them

791
00:40:37,320 --> 00:40:39,000
both legs of a double header.

792
00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:42,159
Speaker 1: So the White Sox are like, this is like what

793
00:40:42,199 --> 00:40:43,480
they want. This is perfect.

794
00:40:43,679 --> 00:40:46,000
Speaker 2: They can play nine people the first game. They could

795
00:40:46,039 --> 00:40:48,199
go with six different guys the second game if they

796
00:40:48,199 --> 00:40:50,920
want to. They can call up a twenty seventh man.

797
00:40:50,920 --> 00:40:54,320
Maybe it'll be Peyton Palette who's been a really good

798
00:40:54,320 --> 00:40:56,239
reliever for them. I don't think he's pitched yet this

799
00:40:56,280 --> 00:40:58,679
week at Triple A, so they can go twenty seventh man,

800
00:40:58,760 --> 00:41:01,880
get themselves another reliever. It's a dream setup for the

801
00:41:01,880 --> 00:41:04,119
White Sox, who are just you know, trying to play

802
00:41:04,119 --> 00:41:06,360
ball right now and improve. And as Brian said, they're

803
00:41:06,360 --> 00:41:08,800
gonna be plus money in both games. So maybe that's

804
00:41:08,840 --> 00:41:11,679
the strategy here. Maybe you just go in with the mindset,

805
00:41:11,719 --> 00:41:14,320
I'm gonna play White Sox. Maybe this is the strategy.

806
00:41:14,400 --> 00:41:15,760
I'm gonna play White Sox.

807
00:41:15,480 --> 00:41:15,960
Speaker 1: In game one.

808
00:41:16,000 --> 00:41:18,639
Speaker 2: If they win, I'm out. If they lose, I'm gonna

809
00:41:18,679 --> 00:41:20,679
come back and take the plus money in game two.

810
00:41:22,159 --> 00:41:25,360
I prefer the Game one matchup a little well, Actually

811
00:41:25,400 --> 00:41:27,480
that's not even true, because I'd like to. So this

812
00:41:27,519 --> 00:41:29,159
is the annoying thing for me is I want to

813
00:41:29,199 --> 00:41:31,960
fade Gavin Williams. But the guy I want to do

814
00:41:32,039 --> 00:41:34,559
it with is the game one starter, So that's a

815
00:41:34,559 --> 00:41:36,519
little bit annoying. I would love, I would love to

816
00:41:36,559 --> 00:41:40,480
take Smith against Williams. That's not gonna happen. So I'll

817
00:41:40,519 --> 00:41:42,719
probably find a way in here with the White Sox.

818
00:41:42,760 --> 00:41:44,920
I'm just not sure how, and I guess I'll leave

819
00:41:44,960 --> 00:41:51,239
it at that. All right, let's move a long, so

820
00:41:51,320 --> 00:41:54,400
many more games to get to here. I'm gonna grab one.

821
00:41:56,239 --> 00:41:59,519
Let's go to Markinson, our guy. Markinson says, anyone else

822
00:41:59,559 --> 00:42:04,239
like Shape Burns strikeouts today? Well, Brian Leonard, this would

823
00:42:04,239 --> 00:42:07,679
be the reprieve if you will. Chase Burns gets called

824
00:42:07,760 --> 00:42:11,239
up two starts. After two starts at Triple A, Chase

825
00:42:11,280 --> 00:42:15,400
Burns is thrown to the Wolves, Yankees, Red Sox at

826
00:42:15,440 --> 00:42:16,199
Fenway Park.

827
00:42:16,400 --> 00:42:18,679
Speaker 1: I believe who do he face after that? The Phillies.

828
00:42:19,239 --> 00:42:22,519
Speaker 2: It was just like top team after top team. And

829
00:42:22,599 --> 00:42:26,119
now Chase Burns gets a home start against the Rockies.

830
00:42:26,519 --> 00:42:29,639
So good for Chase Burns. I'll go to you can

831
00:42:29,679 --> 00:42:32,679
he take advantage of a weaker opponent right here.

832
00:42:33,880 --> 00:42:35,719
Speaker 3: If he is, this will be the team to do it.

833
00:42:36,360 --> 00:42:39,440
Colorado is if you take a look at Colorado so

834
00:42:39,559 --> 00:42:42,880
far this year, and you take a look at the

835
00:42:42,920 --> 00:42:47,239
major strikeouts, when people to go off for double digit strikeouts,

836
00:42:47,559 --> 00:42:51,320
Colorado seems to be involved just about every time. It's

837
00:42:51,320 --> 00:42:55,639
a young team, they strike out a lot, and they

838
00:42:55,639 --> 00:42:59,079
don't walk a lot, so they just get up there

839
00:42:59,199 --> 00:43:02,440
and take their hack, and really Colorado searching for anybody.

840
00:43:02,960 --> 00:43:04,519
He went back down to the minor league. He's bringing

841
00:43:04,599 --> 00:43:06,679
up another guy. We'll see how all that works out.

842
00:43:06,719 --> 00:43:10,840
But Marquez against Burns. Burns is expensive. He's about the

843
00:43:10,880 --> 00:43:13,840
two forty range right now, total of nine and a half.

844
00:43:14,280 --> 00:43:16,599
Can't lay two fifty with Burns, But I do like

845
00:43:16,639 --> 00:43:22,119
the situation on the strikeout Hermima Kez comes in with

846
00:43:22,199 --> 00:43:26,440
a five point eighty four ERA five five point oh

847
00:43:26,559 --> 00:43:31,800
five expected one sixty two whip. He's only thrown eighty

848
00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:35,280
nine innings this year and he's already got ten losses.

849
00:43:36,360 --> 00:43:38,360
It's been rough for him, it's been rough for the

850
00:43:38,440 --> 00:43:42,079
entire team. His what he does well, he doesn't walk

851
00:43:42,079 --> 00:43:45,440
a lot of players in the seventy second percentile fastball

852
00:43:45,480 --> 00:43:49,159
is still pretty good sixty second percentile, but he's in

853
00:43:49,199 --> 00:43:52,599
the first percentile pitching run value first and fastball run

854
00:43:52,679 --> 00:43:58,079
value second. In extension fifteen strikeouts expected batting average sixth.

855
00:43:58,280 --> 00:44:01,280
He's just not been good since coming back from injury,

856
00:44:02,119 --> 00:44:04,960
and he's a guy I'm looking to fade. Burns, on

857
00:44:05,000 --> 00:44:08,320
the other hand, is the guy that comes in with

858
00:44:08,440 --> 00:44:13,280
an eight point one ERA and he's what they say

859
00:44:13,280 --> 00:44:15,320
to the current line is two forty eight point one

860
00:44:15,400 --> 00:44:18,280
ERA with how many times do you see that one

861
00:44:18,320 --> 00:44:20,920
point nine to zer whip it's expected to err though,

862
00:44:21,000 --> 00:44:23,320
is five point nine three still not the greatest, but

863
00:44:23,360 --> 00:44:27,599
his fastball velostity is great ninety six percentile. He's striking

864
00:44:27,599 --> 00:44:31,159
out thirty point six percent of his batteries he has

865
00:44:31,199 --> 00:44:33,800
faced this year. He's got to strike out minus walk

866
00:44:33,880 --> 00:44:38,880
ratio of eighteen point four because he still has problems

867
00:44:38,880 --> 00:44:41,639
with walks twelve point two percent. So he's gonna come

868
00:44:41,639 --> 00:44:43,440
out here, he's gonna blow try to blow him on.

869
00:44:43,559 --> 00:44:45,079
I think he will. I think that's the best way

870
00:44:45,119 --> 00:44:48,800
to play this is to play the pitcher strikeout over

871
00:44:49,559 --> 00:44:53,199
and since he's only pitched a certain amount of innings,

872
00:44:53,800 --> 00:44:58,639
he's gone three starts with ten innings, so yeah, he

873
00:44:58,679 --> 00:45:01,360
hasn't really been stretched out a whole lot here, but

874
00:45:01,480 --> 00:45:03,840
he wasn't the minors when he was there, So yeah,

875
00:45:03,880 --> 00:45:06,000
I like that. I like the strikeout prop here. Well,

876
00:45:06,000 --> 00:45:07,960
I have to get to a brand and figure out

877
00:45:08,000 --> 00:45:10,920
what it is and what the cost is. But I'm

878
00:45:10,920 --> 00:45:14,320
not a big strikeout guy. But Colorado strikes out against everybody.

879
00:45:16,880 --> 00:45:19,800
Speaker 4: So just because the team's bad doesn't mean that they

880
00:45:19,880 --> 00:45:21,840
strike out a lot. So you got to be careful

881
00:45:21,880 --> 00:45:25,920
about that. But it's a spot you can take advantage

882
00:45:25,960 --> 00:45:31,159
of because it's the way that I won the White

883
00:45:31,199 --> 00:45:34,360
Sox pitcher over in the outs the other day, because

884
00:45:34,360 --> 00:45:37,119
the White Sox are a bad team and the book

885
00:45:37,199 --> 00:45:41,360
slights them, and you get advantageous numbers when they slight

886
00:45:41,480 --> 00:45:44,239
a bad team. I forgot who it was that I

887
00:45:44,280 --> 00:45:46,519
had the other day, but everyone was congratulating me on

888
00:45:46,599 --> 00:45:48,360
the free play. I gave it out on this show

889
00:45:48,360 --> 00:45:51,679
two shows ago. But anyway, you can take advantage of

890
00:45:51,679 --> 00:45:55,119
these things. So do the Rocky strike out a lot?

891
00:45:55,199 --> 00:45:58,199
Is the question? They strike out about seven point six

892
00:45:58,320 --> 00:46:01,440
times per nine, which is about the league average. Now

893
00:46:01,519 --> 00:46:04,719
Chase Burns has a thirteen point five K per nine rate,

894
00:46:04,760 --> 00:46:08,880
which is unbelievable, probably not sustainable. The problem is how

895
00:46:08,920 --> 00:46:11,000
deep is he going to go into the game, So

896
00:46:11,039 --> 00:46:13,880
we have to get a little deeper analysis here. He

897
00:46:13,920 --> 00:46:16,519
went five innings against the Yankees and struck out eight.

898
00:46:17,199 --> 00:46:20,320
That's impressive. And the Yankees strike out about the same

899
00:46:20,360 --> 00:46:23,280
as the Rockies, so that's kind of impressed. Well, let

900
00:46:23,360 --> 00:46:25,960
me let me make sure about that. Oh, the Yankees

901
00:46:26,000 --> 00:46:28,599
strike out a little more than the Rockies, but not much.

902
00:46:29,000 --> 00:46:29,119
Speaker 3: So.

903
00:46:30,400 --> 00:46:32,760
Speaker 4: He had a horrible outing against the Red Sox. He

904
00:46:32,800 --> 00:46:36,199
got pulled at one out and he gave up five runs.

905
00:46:36,679 --> 00:46:38,840
He struck out nobody in that so we can throw

906
00:46:38,880 --> 00:46:42,519
that game out as an albatross, but my stats don't

907
00:46:42,519 --> 00:46:44,480
throw it out. So I'm gonna have to manually do

908
00:46:44,559 --> 00:46:46,440
something here, but I'll do it in just a second.

909
00:46:46,679 --> 00:46:49,559
Against the Phillies, he went four point four and two

910
00:46:49,559 --> 00:46:54,159
thirds innings and he struck out seven. So the Phillies strikeout,

911
00:46:54,719 --> 00:46:57,440
let's take a look. Yeah, about the same as the Yankees.

912
00:46:57,719 --> 00:47:00,239
So against the team that strikes out about eight times

913
00:47:00,280 --> 00:47:04,400
per nine, he struck out seven and eight respectively. Today

914
00:47:04,440 --> 00:47:08,519
against the Rockies, I project him at three. But that's

915
00:47:08,559 --> 00:47:14,360
with that horrible game that he had against the Red Sox.

916
00:47:14,519 --> 00:47:19,280
So he's averaging only thirty seven percent into his starts,

917
00:47:19,280 --> 00:47:21,880
but if he finishes five innings, it'll be about fifty

918
00:47:21,920 --> 00:47:25,840
five percent. So I'm going to say, let's say if

919
00:47:25,880 --> 00:47:29,320
he finishes five innings. Let's just say, if he finishes

920
00:47:29,360 --> 00:47:31,679
five innings, how many strikeouts is he going to get?

921
00:47:31,719 --> 00:47:34,239
This is how I do my capping. If he finishes

922
00:47:34,320 --> 00:47:37,320
five innings, I project him to have six strikeouts. So

923
00:47:37,920 --> 00:47:41,239
I think the line is six and a half. It's

924
00:47:41,280 --> 00:47:44,199
a risky proposition. The Rockies actually are a little more

925
00:47:44,199 --> 00:47:47,360
disciplined than the Yankees and the Phillies at the plate.

926
00:47:47,400 --> 00:47:50,159
Even though they can't hit, they don't necessarily strike out.

927
00:47:50,559 --> 00:47:52,559
So that's how I would approach it. I definitely would

928
00:47:52,599 --> 00:47:55,039
not bet his over six and a half, but you

929
00:47:55,119 --> 00:47:57,039
count if you want. I could be wrong. I've been

930
00:47:57,119 --> 00:48:00,960
wrong about the Brewers and I've been wrong about Seeger,

931
00:48:01,199 --> 00:48:02,880
so I've been wrong in my past.

932
00:48:03,320 --> 00:48:07,000
Speaker 2: What do you think, Adam, I'm gonna read off the

933
00:48:07,039 --> 00:48:10,199
Albuquerque Isotopes lineup from the other day. I just want

934
00:48:10,199 --> 00:48:12,440
to show you. I want to demonstrate what we're dealing

935
00:48:12,480 --> 00:48:15,320
with here. Their lineup right, now or the other day

936
00:48:15,440 --> 00:48:21,559
was Amador Tovar, van Heira, Heliard, Bouchard, Owen Miller, Drew,

937
00:48:21,639 --> 00:48:22,639
Romo Shunk.

938
00:48:22,760 --> 00:48:24,480
Speaker 1: Okay, you could flip.

939
00:48:24,559 --> 00:48:27,039
Speaker 2: You could take that lineup and flip it with the

940
00:48:27,039 --> 00:48:29,320
lineup the Rockies have at the big league level right now,

941
00:48:29,599 --> 00:48:32,840
and no one would know the difference. It's basically the

942
00:48:32,880 --> 00:48:36,920
same thing they are. They are as close to a

943
00:48:37,519 --> 00:48:40,840
Triple A team at the big league level that I've

944
00:48:40,920 --> 00:48:45,039
ever that I can personally remember in a very long time,

945
00:48:45,360 --> 00:48:48,760
like that that gets thrown around facetiously like this team's

946
00:48:48,800 --> 00:48:53,000
Triple A team rarely is that ever the case? I

947
00:48:53,079 --> 00:48:58,559
cannot remember a major league team that resembled a top

948
00:48:58,599 --> 00:49:02,159
to bottom, full roster pitch everything that resembled a Triple

949
00:49:02,199 --> 00:49:05,559
A team as much as this year's Colorado Rockies team has.

950
00:49:05,800 --> 00:49:08,840
And why do I bring that up right now? Because

951
00:49:09,000 --> 00:49:12,920
at triple in the minors this year, Chase Burns at

952
00:49:12,920 --> 00:49:16,599
a one point seven to seven ERA, a zero point

953
00:49:16,599 --> 00:49:20,199
seven to seven whip and a one point one sixty

954
00:49:20,199 --> 00:49:24,639
seven batting average against before he got called up. Here's

955
00:49:24,679 --> 00:49:27,559
his three starts. So he made his three starts in

956
00:49:27,719 --> 00:49:32,000
June prior to getting called up. Was Louisville against Scranton

957
00:49:32,119 --> 00:49:36,000
seven innings, one run, three hit, seven strikeouts, against the

958
00:49:36,079 --> 00:49:40,800
Iowa Cubs five and a third, two runs, seven strikeouts,

959
00:49:41,119 --> 00:49:44,880
and then his final start at Double A seven shutout innings,

960
00:49:45,159 --> 00:49:48,639
six strikeouts. I don't know if he'll get over it

961
00:49:48,800 --> 00:49:51,280
like that six and a half strikeout line seems to

962
00:49:51,320 --> 00:49:55,039
be priced appropriately, but he's probably gonna pitch good today,

963
00:49:55,400 --> 00:49:58,639
so that would be I don't know what you do

964
00:49:58,760 --> 00:50:01,360
with that, because obviously, well do you bet the Reds

965
00:50:01,400 --> 00:50:03,000
They're a huge money line. I don't know that I

966
00:50:03,199 --> 00:50:07,199
would advise that. Find a way to play Chase Burns.

967
00:50:07,280 --> 00:50:09,679
If you're comfortable with over six and a half strikeouts,

968
00:50:09,719 --> 00:50:11,840
go for it. If you're comfortable would like to record

969
00:50:11,840 --> 00:50:14,519
a win, go for it. He's probably gonna shove today.

970
00:50:14,639 --> 00:50:16,000
That's all I have to say. Go ahead, Brian.

971
00:50:16,159 --> 00:50:17,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, I was gonna say, record a win. Do you

972
00:50:17,800 --> 00:50:19,719
have that number, Brandon.

973
00:50:21,119 --> 00:50:22,280
Speaker 4: For him to record a win?

974
00:50:22,480 --> 00:50:23,880
Speaker 1: I do not.

975
00:50:25,679 --> 00:50:26,519
Speaker 4: Is it available?

976
00:50:27,159 --> 00:50:28,599
Speaker 3: I don't know, I don't know.

977
00:50:28,800 --> 00:50:31,239
Speaker 4: I'm not sure. I'm not sure either. The record a

978
00:50:31,280 --> 00:50:34,559
win props were not on DraftKings when we started the show,

979
00:50:35,079 --> 00:50:38,400
but some people in the comments are saying Williams Strikeouts

980
00:50:38,440 --> 00:50:40,920
prop is up, so they've probably added some things since

981
00:50:40,960 --> 00:50:41,519
we started.

982
00:50:43,960 --> 00:50:48,280
Speaker 2: So while I definitely want to start locking parlay legs in,

983
00:50:48,360 --> 00:50:52,639
but first again, it's a free chance to win a

984
00:50:52,760 --> 00:50:56,719
flex pass. So the go to the comments of the

985
00:50:56,920 --> 00:51:00,639
YouTube show, throw your wager Talk user name in your

986
00:51:00,679 --> 00:51:04,280
best bet for the day, and we've given out They

987
00:51:04,400 --> 00:51:05,880
they've been very generous with this.

988
00:51:05,920 --> 00:51:07,480
Speaker 1: I think they're giving out three a show.

989
00:51:08,000 --> 00:51:09,880
Speaker 2: When I did the promo the other day on my thing,

990
00:51:09,960 --> 00:51:12,519
I said they're gonna give three out total. I'm pretty

991
00:51:12,519 --> 00:51:15,239
sure they're giving out three on every show, so that

992
00:51:15,320 --> 00:51:18,960
means three people in the comments for this show will

993
00:51:18,960 --> 00:51:21,920
win a flex pass for free. All you had to

994
00:51:21,920 --> 00:51:23,800
do is put a comment with your wager Talk to

995
00:51:23,880 --> 00:51:25,320
use your name and your best bet for the day.

996
00:51:25,599 --> 00:51:27,199
Speaker 1: So go and do that.

997
00:51:27,440 --> 00:51:29,079
Speaker 2: Brian Leonard, do you want to throw a game out

998
00:51:29,119 --> 00:51:31,239
there that maybe you'll You'll use base parlay.

999
00:51:31,599 --> 00:51:36,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll use to par Also, I talked about this yesterday.

1000
00:51:36,400 --> 00:51:38,480
They've got the second half baseball package up for you

1001
00:51:38,559 --> 00:51:41,559
right now. Three seventy nine gets you the second half

1002
00:51:41,599 --> 00:51:44,400
of the world second half of the baseball season all

1003
00:51:44,400 --> 00:51:46,679
the way to the World Series. Three seventy nine. Hello

1004
00:51:46,679 --> 00:51:49,719
of a deal. If you're looking for one of us

1005
00:51:49,840 --> 00:51:54,199
or any other handicapper on a voyager talk, I'm gonna

1006
00:51:54,199 --> 00:51:56,559
go back to that Pittsburgh game. I checked the Bullpens.

1007
00:51:56,599 --> 00:51:59,559
The Bullpens looking pretty good coming into here, so we

1008
00:51:59,559 --> 00:52:03,280
talked about this earlier. I'll be short Pittsburgh under seven

1009
00:52:03,920 --> 00:52:05,920
is why I'm looking in this one. The Bullpens are

1010
00:52:05,920 --> 00:52:09,239
both in pretty good shape, and the current number on

1011
00:52:09,400 --> 00:52:12,920
that is minus one twenty. So I'll play Pittsburgh under

1012
00:52:12,920 --> 00:52:16,159
seven minus one twenty and hopefully I can end the

1013
00:52:16,159 --> 00:52:19,199
week with a victory here and a part of our

1014
00:52:19,719 --> 00:52:20,559
triple play here.

1015
00:52:22,079 --> 00:52:23,840
Speaker 4: I'll give my leg of the parlay. It's a game

1016
00:52:23,880 --> 00:52:26,239
we already covered, so I'll do it very quickly. But

1017
00:52:26,360 --> 00:52:30,079
I like the White Sox in Game two against Williams

1018
00:52:30,159 --> 00:52:33,119
plus plus one and a half. So it's the Adam

1019
00:52:33,199 --> 00:52:37,960
Trigger Special White Sox plus one and a half. Brian,

1020
00:52:38,199 --> 00:52:39,440
do you have a number on that?

1021
00:52:39,519 --> 00:52:42,079
Speaker 3: And we'll have to look for that. I'll hit the

1022
00:52:42,119 --> 00:52:45,719
But you know your mouth is not logic dot com.

1023
00:52:46,440 --> 00:52:49,000
Speaker 4: Uh maybe your cat still right now?

1024
00:52:50,599 --> 00:52:55,079
Speaker 3: And uh okay, White Sox plus one and a half

1025
00:52:55,239 --> 00:52:59,360
second Game two, Canon, I guess Williams correct. Yep, Yeah,

1026
00:53:00,199 --> 00:53:03,280
at about a one fifty three minus one fifty three.

1027
00:53:03,679 --> 00:53:07,400
Speaker 4: I'll take that. My numbers show the White Sox have

1028
00:53:07,519 --> 00:53:11,199
every advantage, although albeit small advantage, but they do have

1029
00:53:11,239 --> 00:53:13,480
an advantage in every category there. So I like it.

1030
00:53:14,119 --> 00:53:16,679
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I'll throw just one more point out to that,

1031
00:53:16,719 --> 00:53:18,360
because I very much agree with you. This is a

1032
00:53:18,400 --> 00:53:21,519
scenario where I even if the White Sox win Game

1033
00:53:21,559 --> 00:53:24,400
one of the doubleheader, it doesn't really make me like

1034
00:53:24,480 --> 00:53:28,400
them less because I truly believe it's He's got different

1035
00:53:28,440 --> 00:53:30,960
guys slated for both games, and.

1036
00:53:31,199 --> 00:53:32,320
Speaker 1: It's gonna they're gonna.

1037
00:53:32,679 --> 00:53:34,760
Speaker 2: I don't think the game plays out any differently for

1038
00:53:34,840 --> 00:53:37,920
them based on what happens in Game one. I truly

1039
00:53:37,920 --> 00:53:40,920
believe the plan for Venable is to like literally play

1040
00:53:40,960 --> 00:53:43,199
every player on his roster, and he would do it

1041
00:53:43,960 --> 00:53:47,920
either like his Game two plans not gonna deviate regardless

1042
00:53:47,960 --> 00:53:49,119
of what happens in game one.

1043
00:53:49,199 --> 00:53:49,840
Speaker 1: So I don't.

1044
00:53:50,039 --> 00:53:52,760
Speaker 2: I don't, just I really agree. That's a that's a

1045
00:53:52,760 --> 00:53:54,880
good play TV. I like that, Brian, what was yours again?

1046
00:53:54,960 --> 00:53:55,559
Just so I can get it?

1047
00:53:55,719 --> 00:53:58,760
Speaker 4: Adam Adam has never disagreed with a White Sox plus

1048
00:53:58,760 --> 00:53:59,719
one point five by the.

1049
00:53:59,719 --> 00:54:04,960
Speaker 2: Way, under seven minus one, twenty under seven minus one,

1050
00:54:05,000 --> 00:54:09,239
twenty Pirates twins car guy, Mike, that's an interesting so

1051
00:54:09,360 --> 00:54:12,079
I never I'm not in a state like I've never

1052
00:54:12,119 --> 00:54:15,000
really done much with prize picks or anything like that.

1053
00:54:15,039 --> 00:54:18,639
But he says Chase fantasy points is thirty one and

1054
00:54:18,679 --> 00:54:20,119
a half on prize that would be solid.

1055
00:54:20,119 --> 00:54:21,800
Speaker 1: I'm assuming he means prize picks. Yeah.

1056
00:54:21,800 --> 00:54:25,119
Speaker 2: Like listen, Chase Burns in daily fantasy probably a good

1057
00:54:25,119 --> 00:54:27,400
play today. I don't know if he's undervalued at all

1058
00:54:27,400 --> 00:54:30,239
because of his e e er. Brian's a fantasy guy.

1059
00:54:30,280 --> 00:54:30,639
Speaker 1: I don't know.

1060
00:54:30,719 --> 00:54:33,800
Speaker 2: Again, I would just look for a way in with

1061
00:54:34,000 --> 00:54:37,119
Chase Burns. However you can make that work in your head,

1062
00:54:37,559 --> 00:54:38,599
I think is good.

1063
00:54:38,920 --> 00:54:41,000
Speaker 4: Adam, let me ask you a question about him in

1064
00:54:41,039 --> 00:54:43,679
the miners. Did he go deep into his starts or

1065
00:54:43,800 --> 00:54:44,280
was he like.

1066
00:54:45,559 --> 00:54:48,920
Speaker 2: Just absolutely dominant seven innings almost every minor league start

1067
00:54:49,159 --> 00:54:52,360
seven innings, blowing, I mean, just blowing teams away. That's

1068
00:54:52,519 --> 00:54:55,119
that's why, Listen, that's why the Reds called him up

1069
00:54:55,119 --> 00:54:57,639
when they did, because they're looking at their team. They're

1070
00:54:57,639 --> 00:55:01,800
looking at like, hey, we're in this. We'd be doing ourselves.

1071
00:55:02,159 --> 00:55:05,199
You know, even if it's at the expense of maybe

1072
00:55:05,239 --> 00:55:07,760
this kid's confidence. We have to see if he can

1073
00:55:07,800 --> 00:55:10,360
do that at the big league level, because we're in

1074
00:55:10,440 --> 00:55:12,639
a race. And if he can go up to the

1075
00:55:12,639 --> 00:55:15,800
big leagues and do what he just did at Double

1076
00:55:15,840 --> 00:55:18,840
A and Triple A and the minors, like, we're sitting

1077
00:55:18,880 --> 00:55:21,360
on a potential ace. That's why they called him up

1078
00:55:21,360 --> 00:55:25,079
when they did, because of how insanely dominant he was

1079
00:55:26,079 --> 00:55:27,440
at the Double A and triple.

1080
00:55:27,559 --> 00:55:30,199
Speaker 4: Because of that Red Sox start. You know, the books

1081
00:55:30,239 --> 00:55:32,559
might not be giving him the credit he deserves. This

1082
00:55:32,639 --> 00:55:35,280
could be the breakout game. Like I said, if he

1083
00:55:35,360 --> 00:55:38,559
goes six innings today, he's gonna get that strikeout. Prop.

1084
00:55:41,079 --> 00:55:41,559
Speaker 1: Here's one.

1085
00:55:41,639 --> 00:55:43,760
Speaker 2: Let's let's do another game and then I'll lock my

1086
00:55:43,840 --> 00:55:45,440
leg in and we'll get out of here. Let's go,

1087
00:55:45,559 --> 00:55:47,599
Let's go out West Angels.

1088
00:55:47,639 --> 00:55:48,199
Speaker 1: D Backs.

1089
00:55:49,000 --> 00:55:52,880
Speaker 2: Still very salty about the Diamondbacks last night. They just

1090
00:55:53,360 --> 00:55:56,400
they had so much traffic on the bases and one

1091
00:55:56,480 --> 00:55:59,679
for ten with runners in scoring position, ten left on base,

1092
00:55:59,760 --> 00:56:04,360
and losing a tough game four to three. They come

1093
00:56:04,440 --> 00:56:08,159
back tonight in a spot that I think favors them again.

1094
00:56:09,400 --> 00:56:10,440
Speaker 1: Brian Leonard I don't know.

1095
00:56:10,440 --> 00:56:12,840
Speaker 2: I'm tempted to come back with Arizona, but I don't

1096
00:56:12,840 --> 00:56:15,119
know if I can do it after last weight's debacle.

1097
00:56:15,519 --> 00:56:18,719
Speaker 1: What do you think, Angels dbacks.

1098
00:56:18,480 --> 00:56:23,079
Speaker 3: Nelton going for Arizona the lefty Anderson going for the Angels,

1099
00:56:23,119 --> 00:56:27,679
who continues to find ways to win in this area.

1100
00:56:28,480 --> 00:56:31,159
Arizona's about a one to fifteen road favorite total of

1101
00:56:31,239 --> 00:56:34,519
nine and a half to the under minus one twenty.

1102
00:56:34,800 --> 00:56:37,320
Ryan Nelson all the season three point three nine, ERA,

1103
00:56:37,639 --> 00:56:40,519
three point eight six expected zero point nine to eight

1104
00:56:40,559 --> 00:56:45,079
whip very good, extension eighty fourth percentile. Fastball velocity pretty good,

1105
00:56:45,119 --> 00:56:49,760
seventy second percentile. And that's important because he's basically a

1106
00:56:49,800 --> 00:56:53,880
fastball pitcher. Sixty three percent of his pitches are the forsammer.

1107
00:56:54,760 --> 00:56:57,079
If he's got the passball working, he's been tough. But

1108
00:56:57,159 --> 00:57:00,360
if you can get it to work, his next best

1109
00:57:00,400 --> 00:57:04,800
pitch is slider eighty second. Excuse me, the slider's twelve

1110
00:57:04,840 --> 00:57:10,119
percent cutter eleven, curve ten change five. So it's really

1111
00:57:10,320 --> 00:57:14,440
just his fastball. And if you take a look at

1112
00:57:14,480 --> 00:57:17,719
his average eggs velocity only in the fifteenth percentile, chase

1113
00:57:17,840 --> 00:57:21,800
rate eighteenth fifth percent eighteenth, so as much as I'd

1114
00:57:21,920 --> 00:57:25,840
liked him this year, not fully buying in right now.

1115
00:57:25,880 --> 00:57:30,000
Tyler Anderson four point one to nine, ERA four point

1116
00:57:30,000 --> 00:57:32,800
four to zero, expected one point three to eight whip

1117
00:57:33,880 --> 00:57:36,599
very good, heart hit rate eighty first percentile average eas

1118
00:57:36,679 --> 00:57:40,079
velocity seventy ninth. His weakness he doesn't have much of

1119
00:57:40,119 --> 00:57:44,400
a fastball. He's in the second percentile in fastball, and

1120
00:57:44,480 --> 00:57:46,920
yet his four seam is his most popular because he

1121
00:57:46,960 --> 00:57:49,239
only throws at thirty eight percent of the time. He's

1122
00:57:49,239 --> 00:57:51,079
got to change at thirty four and a cutter at

1123
00:57:51,119 --> 00:57:53,480
twenty two, and then once in a while throw a

1124
00:57:53,480 --> 00:57:56,679
sinker or a slider. But if you're throwing your fastball

1125
00:57:56,880 --> 00:57:59,239
thirty eight percent of the time and your velocity is

1126
00:57:59,239 --> 00:58:02,039
in the second percentile and your ground ball rate is

1127
00:58:02,079 --> 00:58:05,559
only in the nine percent tile, that's not a good thing.

1128
00:58:05,639 --> 00:58:07,719
When I take a look at these two pictures going

1129
00:58:07,760 --> 00:58:10,760
against the opposition here, I kind of like the over

1130
00:58:11,840 --> 00:58:14,400
because of that, where the over is nine and a

1131
00:58:14,480 --> 00:58:17,000
half minus one twenty, so you can go they score

1132
00:58:17,039 --> 00:58:20,480
ten runs at even money, basically, and that's what you're

1133
00:58:20,480 --> 00:58:22,519
getting here. And it would not surprise me if we

1134
00:58:22,599 --> 00:58:25,519
saw that good hitting from both of these teams here,

1135
00:58:25,559 --> 00:58:27,519
so I kind of like the over get to ten

1136
00:58:27,639 --> 00:58:28,239
get a winner.

1137
00:58:29,880 --> 00:58:30,400
Speaker 1: I kind of.

1138
00:58:30,360 --> 00:58:34,320
Speaker 4: Agree with Brian because Nelson, although his numbers are really good,

1139
00:58:34,360 --> 00:58:39,320
and actually his expected numbers are also very good, he

1140
00:58:39,440 --> 00:58:42,800
has a fairly high ERA en a low whip, which

1141
00:58:42,880 --> 00:58:45,519
means they're not touching him very often, but when they

1142
00:58:45,519 --> 00:58:49,840
touch him, they're touching him. On the road, he has

1143
00:58:50,119 --> 00:58:53,880
very poor ERA five plus. Tyler Anderson has a five

1144
00:58:53,880 --> 00:58:58,039
plus ERA at home. So we got a picture one

1145
00:58:58,039 --> 00:59:00,320
pitcher who's bat at home and is pitching it home,

1146
00:59:00,360 --> 00:59:02,400
and another pitcher who's bad on the road and is

1147
00:59:02,960 --> 00:59:07,719
pitching on the road. Two lineups that are well Diamondbacks

1148
00:59:07,719 --> 00:59:10,039
are not really catching fire. They got hot now, they're

1149
00:59:10,039 --> 00:59:12,320
a little cold right now, but they have a lot

1150
00:59:12,360 --> 00:59:15,119
of talent and a lot of power hitting. The Angels

1151
00:59:15,119 --> 00:59:18,199
are actually hot right now, fairly hot, I mean not

1152
00:59:18,360 --> 00:59:21,880
red hot, but fairly hot. And this Arizona bullpen, although

1153
00:59:21,880 --> 00:59:25,760
they are recovering from me trashing them all first half

1154
00:59:25,800 --> 00:59:29,440
of the season, they're still not up to the rank

1155
00:59:29,480 --> 00:59:32,280
of fifteen the Mendoza line. They're a little bit below it.

1156
00:59:32,599 --> 00:59:34,719
I would think an Angels team total here because I

1157
00:59:34,760 --> 00:59:36,719
think the books might be giving Nelson a little too

1158
00:59:36,760 --> 00:59:39,880
much credit here while he's on the road. Maybe I

1159
00:59:39,960 --> 00:59:42,280
have to look into it a little more. But just

1160
00:59:42,320 --> 00:59:45,440
looking at the numbers and bouncing it off my head,

1161
00:59:45,480 --> 00:59:48,360
that would be the way I would check more before.

1162
00:59:48,360 --> 00:59:51,159
Speaker 3: I bet.

1163
00:59:52,000 --> 00:59:55,239
Speaker 2: There was once a time, not long ago. You'd actually

1164
00:59:55,280 --> 00:59:58,880
go back to last year where this Diamondbacks team pummeled

1165
00:59:59,079 --> 01:00:03,760
left handed pitching, absolutely crushed lefties. They were number one

1166
01:00:03,920 --> 01:00:07,519
in every category against left handed pitching for a lot

1167
01:00:07,559 --> 01:00:11,400
of last year, and it is a very similar lineup,

1168
01:00:11,800 --> 01:00:14,000
which is why it's been a little bit surprising to

1169
01:00:14,039 --> 01:00:17,079
me that so far this year they haven't.

1170
01:00:17,719 --> 01:00:18,920
Speaker 1: They haven't been as good.

1171
01:00:19,039 --> 01:00:24,159
Speaker 2: Now they are approaching being elite against.

1172
01:00:23,880 --> 01:00:25,000
Speaker 1: Left handed pitching once again.

1173
01:00:25,159 --> 01:00:28,719
Speaker 2: WRC plus coming into today for the Diamondbacks against lefties

1174
01:00:28,760 --> 01:00:31,000
is a ninety nine, which is tenth in Major League

1175
01:00:31,039 --> 01:00:34,079
Baseball based on the last the previous two years that

1176
01:00:34,119 --> 01:00:36,920
you got to remember, this team played a long stretch

1177
01:00:36,960 --> 01:00:39,800
of time without Kenl Marte. They played for a stretch

1178
01:00:39,840 --> 01:00:42,760
without Corbyn Carroll, so they have had some guys out,

1179
01:00:42,800 --> 01:00:46,960
But like the lineup itself, is not that much different

1180
01:00:47,199 --> 01:00:51,920
from last year's lineup that demolished left handed pitching. So

1181
01:00:52,000 --> 01:00:55,440
I asked myself, why not, like, why are they not

1182
01:00:55,519 --> 01:00:57,559
number one this year or why, like, you know, are

1183
01:00:57,639 --> 01:00:58,400
they gonna get there?

1184
01:00:58,559 --> 01:00:59,800
Speaker 1: Are they gonna trend toward that?

1185
01:01:00,079 --> 01:01:02,679
Speaker 2: It certainly matters when you have a guy like Marte

1186
01:01:02,719 --> 01:01:04,599
out for as long as he was out at least

1187
01:01:04,599 --> 01:01:07,840
a month. You know, Carol, I know he's a left

1188
01:01:07,840 --> 01:01:10,360
handed hitter, but I still think he's.

1189
01:01:10,320 --> 01:01:11,920
Speaker 1: A plus guy in that lineup.

1190
01:01:11,960 --> 01:01:15,280
Speaker 2: So I look at this and say, hmm, Diamondbacks tenth

1191
01:01:15,400 --> 01:01:17,199
WRC plus against left handed pitching.

1192
01:01:18,280 --> 01:01:19,440
Speaker 1: I think that's gonna get better.

1193
01:01:19,719 --> 01:01:22,079
Speaker 2: I think as you have a full strength Diamondbacks lineup

1194
01:01:22,320 --> 01:01:24,559
over the course of the year the season, based on

1195
01:01:24,599 --> 01:01:27,119
what they did last year, they can probably only improve.

1196
01:01:27,159 --> 01:01:29,960
I think they trend toward top five against lefties. And

1197
01:01:30,079 --> 01:01:33,199
the reason the reason I say that is the last

1198
01:01:33,199 --> 01:01:36,480
two seasons, a lot of these a lot this lineup,

1199
01:01:36,519 --> 01:01:40,000
which was many of the same guys, just crushed left

1200
01:01:40,039 --> 01:01:43,440
handed pitching. So I will make the Diamondbacks my parlay leg.

1201
01:01:43,559 --> 01:01:47,599
I've been a big fan of Ryan Nelson for a

1202
01:01:47,639 --> 01:01:51,400
long time. And you know, even though even though I

1203
01:01:51,400 --> 01:01:54,239
haven't found great places, great spots to bet on him

1204
01:01:54,280 --> 01:01:56,119
for as far as like client plays and stuff. Though

1205
01:01:56,119 --> 01:01:58,840
this might actually make my card. I think he can

1206
01:01:58,880 --> 01:02:03,519
handle the angels. Not I'm not buying the angels like

1207
01:02:03,599 --> 01:02:06,400
some others are at this point. So I'll run it

1208
01:02:06,440 --> 01:02:09,079
back if you will with the Diamondbacks minus one. What

1209
01:02:09,119 --> 01:02:10,599
do I got there, Brian? What do we got for

1210
01:02:10,599 --> 01:02:11,840
a DBAX money line here?

1211
01:02:20,199 --> 01:02:23,119
Speaker 4: Well, Brian's looking for that. Guys, don't forget to leave

1212
01:02:23,159 --> 01:02:27,639
a comment on the replay. Leave your wager tuch ID

1213
01:02:27,920 --> 01:02:30,320
user name, and give us your best bet and you

1214
01:02:30,360 --> 01:02:32,920
will be in the drawing for a three day all

1215
01:02:32,960 --> 01:02:36,199
access flex pass. Go ahead, Brian, Sorry.

1216
01:02:36,000 --> 01:02:38,639
Speaker 3: Arizona minus one fifteen perfect.

1217
01:02:39,519 --> 01:02:42,039
Speaker 2: All right, So we have reached the end of the show.

1218
01:02:42,239 --> 01:02:45,920
We have the three teamers have been a little cold.

1219
01:02:46,119 --> 01:02:48,800
But you know, this is a great illustration of parlay betting,

1220
01:02:48,920 --> 01:02:53,599
like and how it's really difficult to win betting parlays. Right,

1221
01:02:53,679 --> 01:02:56,679
Like we hit a couple, it's hard to hit three teamers.

1222
01:02:56,719 --> 01:02:59,599
That being said, we've met you know, we've never been negative,

1223
01:02:59,599 --> 01:03:00,880
and we're gonna go win or lose.

1224
01:03:00,920 --> 01:03:01,039
Speaker 1: Here.

1225
01:03:01,079 --> 01:03:03,519
Speaker 2: We're going into the All Star break ahead since we

1226
01:03:03,559 --> 01:03:06,320
started to do this. So for every dollar risk, if

1227
01:03:06,320 --> 01:03:08,639
you played these all equally, for every dollar risk, you're

1228
01:03:08,719 --> 01:03:11,480
up six dollars and ninety cents, or you can say

1229
01:03:11,480 --> 01:03:14,960
plus six point nine units. Either way, David profitable. That

1230
01:03:15,039 --> 01:03:18,679
being said, we are on a little cold streak with

1231
01:03:18,760 --> 01:03:22,000
the parlay. Believe we all lost our parlay leg yesterday.

1232
01:03:22,000 --> 01:03:23,960
I think that's the first time that's happening in quite

1233
01:03:23,960 --> 01:03:28,199
some time. Maybe so maybe Tokyo Brandon, this is the

1234
01:03:28,280 --> 01:03:30,760
day we all win our parlay leg and we hit

1235
01:03:31,159 --> 01:03:33,920
we hit the three team or this is plus four.

1236
01:03:35,000 --> 01:03:36,519
Speaker 4: And I win my five percent play.

1237
01:03:36,719 --> 01:03:39,519
Speaker 1: Hopefully we can only hope, Yeah, we can only hope.

1238
01:03:39,639 --> 01:03:40,559
Need I need a winner.

1239
01:03:40,639 --> 01:03:43,599
Speaker 2: Two hasn't been the best week for me in MLB

1240
01:03:44,280 --> 01:03:46,679
after a really good five week run, So I'm I'm

1241
01:03:46,760 --> 01:03:49,280
kind of with Brian. I'm just trying to survive till Sunday,

1242
01:03:49,599 --> 01:03:51,159
get to the break and then we come out of

1243
01:03:51,159 --> 01:03:54,400
the break, you know, ready to rock. But anyway, three

1244
01:03:54,440 --> 01:03:56,559
team parlay for the show. The final one of the

1245
01:03:56,559 --> 01:04:01,199
first half is going to be White Sox plus one

1246
01:04:01,199 --> 01:04:04,519
and a half. That is game two, Game two, White

1247
01:04:04,519 --> 01:04:07,320
Sox plus one and a half for Tokyo Brandon pirates

1248
01:04:07,360 --> 01:04:10,880
twins under seven for Brian Leonard and then I'm on

1249
01:04:11,039 --> 01:04:15,360
Diamondbacks minus one fifteen one more time. That's White Sox

1250
01:04:15,400 --> 01:04:17,320
plus one and a half in game two of their

1251
01:04:17,320 --> 01:04:22,599
doubleheader with the Guardians for TB Pirates twins under seven

1252
01:04:23,000 --> 01:04:27,320
Diamondbacks money line full game minus one fifteen pays out

1253
01:04:27,360 --> 01:04:30,639
plus four seventy one. Hopefully we can start or we

1254
01:04:30,679 --> 01:04:33,280
can finish the first half with a winner.

1255
01:04:34,000 --> 01:04:35,480
Speaker 1: Guys, we're off till next Friday.

1256
01:04:35,559 --> 01:04:38,360
Speaker 2: There's no games to talk about, so we're gonna go

1257
01:04:38,440 --> 01:04:40,119
do whatever it is that we do when we're not

1258
01:04:40,159 --> 01:04:44,719
talking games. I hope everyone has a great weekend. Yeah,

1259
01:04:44,719 --> 01:04:47,880
I know, I get restless during that four day stretch.

1260
01:04:47,920 --> 01:04:50,920
I gotta be honest. Maybe I'll go outside or something.

1261
01:04:51,000 --> 01:04:56,760
Maybe I'll cut it out. Yeah, anyway, we will be

1262
01:04:57,239 --> 01:05:00,719
We will be back on Friday morning week from today

1263
01:05:00,800 --> 01:05:03,159
to kick off the second half of the Major League

1264
01:05:03,159 --> 01:05:06,000
Baseball season nine am, and then of course every day

1265
01:05:06,039 --> 01:05:08,599
the rest of the way Monday through Friday, nine am.

1266
01:05:08,920 --> 01:05:12,400
Appreciate all of you guys making this show, you know,

1267
01:05:12,440 --> 01:05:14,639
one of the most popular shows on the wager Talk

1268
01:05:14,679 --> 01:05:17,280
platform through the first half. We can't wait to have

1269
01:05:17,320 --> 01:05:19,599
a great second half with you guys, so like and

1270
01:05:19,639 --> 01:05:23,440
subscribe as always, we appreciate the interaction, good or bad,

1271
01:05:23,480 --> 01:05:26,559
We'll take whatever we can get. Don't forget to sign up.

1272
01:05:26,599 --> 01:05:29,360
I mean free flex Picks can't beat that. So go

1273
01:05:29,400 --> 01:05:32,599
on over to the replay of this show on YouTube.

1274
01:05:32,760 --> 01:05:35,440
Drop your user name, your wager Talk user name, and

1275
01:05:35,440 --> 01:05:37,320
your best bet. Three of you guys are going to

1276
01:05:37,360 --> 01:05:40,800
win a three day Flex Picks pass for free, and

1277
01:05:40,840 --> 01:05:43,239
we'll see you guys next Friday. Everyone, have a great

1278
01:05:43,239 --> 01:05:46,280
week and cash your tickets this weekend.