Speaker 1: Week seven of college football. Boy, does that sound crazy
to say out loud. We've got a bunch of top
twenty five matchups, barking dogs, best bets, the deli's still cooking,
and that train is still rolling down the tracks.
Speaker 2: Let's get into this week's episode of bet on It.
Speaker 1: All right, Kelly Stewart here joined by Yanni the Greek
and Marco DiAngelo. This is the college football edition of
bet on It. So we're gonna get into some of
these top twenty five games, and I'm going to go first,
twelve pm Eastern.
Speaker 2: Number one Ohio State is.
Speaker 1: A two touchdown favorite at number seventeen Illinois forty nine
and a half here is a total and actually the
Buckeyes have that hook hanging on that has me looking
towards the lin nine. Now, one could argue that the
Buckeyes owned the series, but these who have not played
each other since November of twenty seventeen, and since losing
to Michigan in that close regular season loss last year,
Ohio State has gone nine and oh straight up eight
oho to one against the spread. But hey, Brett Blama
and the line I are not far behind. Since their
bye week in mid November of last year ALNI nine
and one straight up and against the spread. And you
guys remember that lone loss at Indiana earlier this season.
I'm sure the Illinois team would like to forget that
one as well. But I like this Illinois team here
at home catching points double digits for BLEMMA as a
home dog.
Speaker 2: I think you guys know what to do.
Speaker 1: I might not get to the window with this team,
but Illinois in some contest plays will.
Speaker 2: Be it for me. Three point thirty PM Eastern number
seven Indiana down to seven and a half half.
Speaker 1: This one opened at ten there on Sunday night at
CIRCA at number three organ total fifty five and a
half VR.
Speaker 2: What do you make of this line move before you
get into the total here.
Speaker 3: I wasn't surprised. Listen our, Oregon's top top three in
the country as far as power ratings go, but Indiana's
right there as well, and I think they got them
ranked correctly. You know, I've been able to take advantage
of the incorrect rankings based mostly on records than anything else.
And I talk about it all the time how the
cream does eventually rise to the top. But this is
just a perfect example of the rankings being on point
with the power ratings, and based on that, I wasn't
surprised to see some money come in on the dog.
But where sits now, I don't think there's all that
much value on the side, So I'm going to look
to the total, and I think we're going to get
extra couple points by going under here based on the
high profile offenses. And obviously both teams coming in having
put up decent amount of points week in and week out,
but if you look at the defensive side of the ball,
both teams have allowed more than fourteen points only one
time that was it. So you're looking at two high
level defenses, and usually that's the perfect storm to go
over because the market overreacts to just how good the
defenses are. So the lines shaded towards that bias. And
I talk about it all the time. Defenses create points
as well turnovers special teams. But because we're talking about
the high profile offense of Oregon and the narrative about
them being a team that puts up a lot of
points and Indiana doing the same thing more or less
week in and week out, we got a higher line
than it should be, sitting at about fifty five to
fifty five and a half. And it's a telling sign
that this line hasn't gone up even though you're starting
to see the public lining up on that over. So
definitely some resistance from sharp betters. I agree with that.
So we're going to go under fifty five for the
TV game this week.
Speaker 1: Speaking of those defenses, Wow, three thirty pm Eastern, number six,
Oklahoma is headed to the Cotton Bowl to take on Texas. Now,
this Lions flipped back and forth between who was the
favorite the current one here on the odds loigest screen
Oklahoma minus one and a half total forty two and
a half.
Speaker 2: Marco.
Speaker 1: That's what I'm looking at in this one. I'm like,
everybody wants to talk about these two defenses. We've seen
this Red River rivalry shootout, whatever you want to call
it these days be an absolute score fest. Before I
thought forty two and a half was really low. But
you're actually looking at a side here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I am.
Speaker 4: And as you said, the line's gone back and forth,
And when I did the game last night, I was
looking at it. Actually Texas was the favorite last night.
This is what tells the story for me. You look
at this game. And you've got Oklahoma, who is ranked
sixth in the nation, and you got Texas, who, if
you remember, came into the season as the number one
team in the country in the preseason rankings. And what happened, Well,
they lose that opening game against Ohio State, and then
last week against all teams winless Florida, they get beat
last week and all of a sudden, they're out of
the top twenty five. We're getting value with this Texas team,
in my opinion, and the market corrected itself. When you've
got even if it's a pick them plus one minus one,
you got a ranked team versus an unranked team that
sends up all the red flags in the world that
Oklahoma might just be overrated in this one. And let's
be honest, they are undefeated, but they really only had
two signature wins. And if you look at the two
signature wins, the first one came against Michigan at home,
and that was the second game of the season for them,
and it was the first game for Michigan quarterback on
the road. You know, they got that highly talented freshman
at Michigan, But going into Oklahoma for your first road game,
that's a tall order for anyone. And you know they
got the win there. Their other win, well, they had
a touchdown victory over Auburn, and you know the jury
is still out. Is all Burn a decent team not
a decent team. It was a lackluster performance. I think
Texas they're playing with house money now, granted normally, and
VR mentioned it last week and shout out to him
when he talked about the Penn State UCLA game and
talking about dream Crusher games. A team that had expectations
to win a national championship. When you lose for the
second time, your season's over as far as the national
championship goes. But because they are playing their heated rival,
I'm not gonna play that card yet. For the dream Crusher.
They want to wreck somebody else's dream And if you
can knock Oklahoma from the ranks of the unbeaten, they're
gonna show up for this game. I'm gonna go ahead.
I am gonna take Texas. You talk about defense, There's
never been a problem with the Texas defense at all.
The problem has been with arch Manning. But if he
has a clean game and just improves at all, I
think they win this football game. I'm gonna go with them, Texas.
In the other part of being out of it, that
gives them the opportunity, Kelly, to take chances in the game.
Speaker 3: What do they have to lose?
Speaker 4: You can gamble more on fourth downs. You know, when
you're sitting there with two losses, it's not like you're
playing not to lose instead of playing to win. I'll
go ahead and take Texas. Can't really call it an upset,
but it will be an unranked team knocking off a
ranked team.
Speaker 1: Yeah, upset, at least in the of the talking head
since they don't actually follow the points spreads. We want
to give you guys a big shout out for following
us here on bet on It. Make sure you guys
give us that thumbs up button, hit the like, and
of course subscribe, and we're looking to become a wager
Talk insider wt dot buzz backslash Insiders gets you tons
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com VR.
Speaker 2: We're gonna get up to you next.
Speaker 1: The steam room has been rocking and rolling on Sundays
in the NFL edition. But you guys get your own
preview of what that looks like right here on bet
on It each week. Where have we seen the money
going early on Wednesday afternoon VR.
Speaker 3: Yeah, And let's talk about some of these more key
games in college football. I'll start off with Florida getting
points once again Steam Florida. It seems like this entire
season they've been taking the Florida side. They took the
eight and a half and they took the eight point floor.
Also double digits took South Carolina plus the ten over
the LSU side. We also saw Oklahoma money at that
opener of three got beat down really quickly. Oklahoma money
line Oklahoma plus two and a half, Oklahoma plus two.
Seeing a lot of law on Oklahoma one ninety seven
Indiana I already touched on them against Oregon. A lot
of that value has been extracted. They took the eight
off the board as well there. Florida State laid the
chalk with Florida State against Pitt laid the nine, laid
the nine and a half, laid the ten there. Then
Miszoo against Alabama taking the home dog there at plus
four plus three and a half. That's why you're looking
at a field goal game now, then Arizona State plus
the six at Utah, and finally BYU minus one against Arizona.
Those are some of the more high profile games. Haven't
seen a move on that Georgia Auburn yet. I haven't
seen sharp money, but still a little early in the week.
And again a lot of those less profile games you're
seeing movement. But pay attention on Thursdays. I talked about
it before. That's when you'll see the totals move after
nine am Pacific time. Pay attention to the Odds Logic.
Some of the biggest total moves come on Thursdays.
Speaker 1: You guys are looking for a free week trial of
odds Logic. Oddslogic dot Com, backslash Ace get you one
free week so you guys can check that out, and
if not, we still have the Wager Talk Free Odds page,
wt dot Buzz, backslash Odds. Let's get into those barking dogs, guys,
because it has been by far our best segment not
only here on the College Football Show, but also in
the NFL Show.
Speaker 2: Marco and I, well, let's put it this way.
Speaker 1: Marco's got a double digit barking dog because he's going
to try to keep up with what VR some alpulled
out last week and it wasn't even close. Great called
by VR. We didn't even have to swept that one.
But Marco, I love this. This is a double digit
dog that was also on my radar. I don't know
if I'm gonna get to the window with the money line,
but maybe I could use a little convincing.
Speaker 4: Well, you gotta put a little sprinkle, Kelly, come on,
you gotta put a little seasoning in the stew there
for Saturday. And this is one of those ones where
this is the poster child for the saying that I
do all the time. No team is as good as
their best game, nor are they as bad as their
worst game. Enter Clemson in Boston College. Clemson's coming off
their best game of the year. They won thirty eight
to ten over North Carolina. Well, let's point out the
two obvious things. First of all, North Carolina stikes. Okay,
that's the first part. Second part, Clemson had two weeks
to prepare for that game, and Clemson was coming off
the last time they played, they were an eighteen point
favorite at home to Syracuse and lost outright. So you
had a very focused Clemson team playing a very bad
North Carolina team, and that's what you got, a thirty
eight to ten blow up. On the flip side of that,
you had Boston College that absolutely got boat race at
Pittsburgh last week forty eight to seven. It was a
pillar to postgame from pitt Pitt even changed quarterbacks for
that game. Guy made his first start and just drilled
Boston College. Now you look at that when a couple
things from that one.
Speaker 3: Boston College was.
Speaker 4: Minus three and turnovers that helped the game spin out
of control quickly. And it was a horrible scheduling spot
for Boston College. They had been playing a bunch of
road games early in the season and it was their
third road game out of their past four. And in
those three road games that they had in the last four,
one of them was a cross country trip to Stanford.
We've talked about this silliness with the ACC schedule with
California and Stanford. You know, playing in the ACC just
doesn't make sense with trave and it creates problems for
teams going west or those teams coming east. This is
also a spot where do you think they were looking
ahead to Clemson a little bit? You know, which do
you get more excited about going to Pitt or playing Clemson.
I'm gonna go ahead and take Boston College in this one.
Prior to that pit debacle, their three losses were by two,
ten and four points. They were very competitive in all
of their games. I am not sold on Clemson just yet.
And yes, I realized Boston College sitting at one and four,
what do they got to play for? Well, when your
season's over early, yeah, you risk mailing it in the
rest of the season, except you're gonna circle a couple
of games on your schedule. And I looked at the
remaining schedule for Boston College and if they're so called
quote bowl games for them will be this Clemson game
and later in the year when Notre Dame comes to town.
Other than that, I probably will not be involved in
a Boston College game unless I'm going against them. But
this week we're going to take them plus the points.
I think this is going to be much closer than
people think, and we'll go ahead and put just a
little sprinkle on the money line as well. I got
to try to keep up with VR, but again, congrats
to him on that call with UCLA least.
Speaker 1: Yeah, now I gotta try to keep up with both
of you, because VR also has a double digit dog,
and I thought my nine point underdog was going to
be sufficient. It is apparently not. Now we have a
competition going on here VR. This one's well. As a
girl who follows the big swill very closely, we'll just
call it interesting. Tell me why you like Oklahoma State
here in this spot.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I gave this out to subscribers as a
premium play immediately. Number one, I think Houston's over valued team,
a little bit overrated. Sitting at four and one, they've
had a very easy strength of schedule. In fact, it's
the seventy close to the eightieth toughest schedule so far
in college football. So not surprised they're sitting at four
and one. But if you look, even though they've done
well against the spread, also you know they're they're profitable
at three and two. They haven't been winning with big margin,
meaning it's not like they're putting up forty plus points
in game. In fact, the most they put up was
thirty six points to cover fourteen and a half. You know,
you've got to be able to put up a lot
of points, and I think as bad as Oklahoma State
has looked offensively and defensively. They've had a much tougher
strength of schedule to date, and I think if anything,
they're going to improve off of that. They're going to
start to progress towards the mean. They're not that bad
of a football team, as they've shown to date. With
that said, Houston's strength is their defense. That's where they're
you know, most efficient. At least it's it's appeared that
way so far this early in the season. They're ninth
nationally in yardage per game, but dig a little deeper
into the metrics and they're probably in like the top
forty defensively overall their efficiency, so they're not a top
ten defense like it appears. That's just you know, against
yardage allowed, which stat doesn't mean all that much. So
I think they're getting a little too much credit for
their defense, and I think a lot of that has
to do with that strength of schedule. Also, their stud
quarterback had that concussion protocol last week, so we know
he's not one hundred percent. They're going to want to
be careful with him for sure. In Oklahoma State tough environment,
a strong home field advantage almost three points, about two
point eight, something that's pretty high for college football. Getting
two touchdowns plus I think is a gift. It's worth
a little sprinkle on the money line as well. Again,
we're going to hit back to back big money lines
find out Saturday. But I do think they could keep
this within the number. I think Houston's one of those
phony four and one teams, and I think Oklahoma State's
not as bad as they've looked. Again, streank Off schedule
had a lot to do with it. Give me the
two touchdowns with Oklahoma State and sprinkle that money line
because it's a generous, generous number.
Speaker 1: I know a lot of people may say that Oklahoma
State doesn't have some big hold home field advantage because
they fired Gundy and their team's done any good. You
guys haven't been paying attention. They have still been packing
that house. It is absolutely wild to see, as somebody
who is kind of a fair Weather fan themselves this season.
That being said, I'm taking a nine point underdog, the
littlest dog here on the board in South Carolina. So
I was happy to hear VRSA during the season teamitment
that he saw sharp money come from ten to nine.
There look LSU They won the last eight meetings, including
that crazy road win thirty six thirty three last year
in Colombia. If you guys remember, South Carolina jumped out
early seventeen to nothing over the Tigers, but boom, Lenora
Sellers gets knocked out of the game with the injury
and the game Cocks get refed to death thirteen penalties
for one hundred and twenty three yards. I think it's
probably fair to say the game Cocks have this one circled. Yes,
both teams are coming off of bye, but I think
this LSU team is not as good as everybody had
thought over the summertime ten and three against the spreading
their last thirteen sec matches. I like the game Cocks,
and I'm gonna go and apologize to South Carolina because
I can't wait to see how you guys lose this
game in horrible fashion. Yes, that's what exactly happened last
week to all of our underdogs. It is the kiss
of death. If I put them in the barking dog segment,
They're going to cover but not win. So apologies in advance.
Let's get right into the deli. The deli has been
rocket and rolling there. Marco sixteen to nine on this season.
You also do an additional Deli segment each week here
on the wager Tis YouTube channel. Can you please let
everybody know where they can find that and who the
sandwich game of the week is.
Speaker 4: Yeah, Yeah, Kelly, that's sixteen and nine record ditch you reference.
That's on the Bonus edition of Marco's Delhi. We've had
five episodes so far this season, five games each week.
We've had four winning weeks out of five. Last week
was our first losing week. We went two and three
on the show last week, and we are sixteen and
nine with these plays for the season, and tune in
every Thursday we release it. It's out late on Thursday,
and then it is part of the Mega podcast as well,
the Mega Show here with the bed on It Show.
So if you like what we do here and you
want seconds, we give you one Deli special here every
week on bed on It. You want five more and
I break the games down and tell you the insights
of how I'm looking at the games and what the
situation is that I'm looking at. It's both educational and profit.
Tune in every week to Marco's Deli for this week's
Sandwich Game of the Week. Well, this was a game
that last week made the Bonus Show. We took Wisconsin
last week as one of those Deli specials. Now, it
wasn't pretty, but he got there. They were plus seventeen
against Michigan and they lost by fourteen. And the reason
we were on Wisconsin that game is because Michigan was
in a big sandwich spot last week. Well, this week
it's Wisconsin who's in that sandwich spot. And it's a
big one. If you look at Wisconsin are coming off
playing Michigan last week, and guess what. Take a look
at next week who they play. Yeah, that's right, They've
got the number one team in the country coming to
their house. Ohio State will be coming to town next week.
Iowa has had two weeks to prepare for them. Now,
when you that gives them a huge edge in this matchup. Offensively,
these two teams are basically even. They put up about
the same type of numbers. But where the difference is
in between these two teams is the defense. Iowa has
the upper hand. They're allowing just four point five yards
per play defensively, given the superior defense, given the extra
prep time, given the bad scheduling spot that we have
Wisconsin in. There's only one way for me to go
in this game, and I'm gonna go ahead and lay
it with Iowa. Lay the three and a half in
this one. I've got Iowa winning twenty three to thirteen. Yeah,
it'll be one of those classic Iowa games. It's not
gonna be a lot of points scored in it, but
I like the Iowa Hawk guys to prevail on Saturday
against Wisconsin as the sandwich game of the week.
Speaker 1: All right, and it's time for best Bets VR. You're
gonna be out first here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's no surprise.
Speaker 1: I think this trio is gonna be all over Texas,
even though I need them to lose a couple more
games for my season win total to go under the total.
Speaker 3: So far, so good, and season on bet on It
fourteen and four in college football, and I'm gonna fade
the sharp money that's come in on Oklahoma. The only
thing I don't like is the talk about the quarterback
materia not being being a game time decision. He's gonna go.
I don't like that negative on Oklahoma. I wish everything
was positive on the Oklahoma side because here's the bottom line.
Forget the handicap, forget the x's and o's. This is
a simple case of an overreaction to a small sample size.
And let me explain. Prior to the season starting, Oklahoma
was nowhere near to top ten. Texas was third power
rating wise, top five for sure amongst all sharp power ratings.
Many had him top three, you know, top one or
two for some. Okay, we saw them lose Ohio State
the first week, No surprise. Ohio State's the best team
in the country. They were before the season started. They
were going into this week, all right. They lost that
by a touchdown. Since then, the stock on Texas continues
to drop, and the stock on Oklahoma's going off. But
here's the bottom line. There's nowhere that Oklahoma is better,
meaning like efficiency wise offense, you look at at Texas,
they're top fifteen, Oklahoma barely in the top thirty. Defense,
Texas top five, Oklahoma top ten. You look at power
rating wise, I get it. Both Texas and Penn State
have been dropped from the rankings. But I'm telling you
right now, there are only let me see, maybe five
or six teams that should be favored over Texas on
a neutral field. That's correct. On a neutral field, only
five or six teams should be favored over Texas. That
doesn't mean that the books wouldn't make a team favored
over Texas, because the book's job is to balance risk.
But what would happen if that is the case? You
would see wise guys lining up and taking Texas because
their power ratings reflect mind and mind show right now
that Texas is still a top ten team in the country.
Oklahoma is barely a top twenty team in the country,
and that's going to play itself out with strength of
schedule because up until now, Texas has played the tenth
toughest schedule in all of college football. Oklahoma's played the
fifty eighth toughest schedule in all of college football. Well
coming up for them over the rest of the season
top five, so we'll see what Oklahoma's made of over
the next couple of weeks. With all that said, this
is simply a power rating bet where I think that
the market's so overreacted on Texas's short term results and like,
what did they do? They haven't been getting blown out
or anything like that. Again, get in Texas at to
pick them at home minus one is a gift. They
should be at least a three point favorite in this
spot at minimum. Give me the Texas Longhorns, fade the
wise guys, I love Texas on Saturday. Dude.
Speaker 1: All right, Marco DiAngelo, before we get into your best bet,
can you please let everybody know what is going on
Over at wagertalk dot com. We have a new special
up called the Weekend Warrior.
Speaker 4: Yeah. Well that's been up for a few weeks, Kelly,
and it's been a very successful, very popular. You can
pick your favorite handicapper at wager talk forty nine dollars.
You'll get all of their plays Saturday Sunday in football,
and if your handicapper has to play on the Monday
night football game, and there's two of them this week,
so good chance your capper will have a play, you'll
get that as a free bonus on Monday. Now, if
you want to jump on board and get all the
plays for a seven day period, we also have a
seventy seven dollar package going at wager talk as well,
and with a baseball playoffs in full swing. Few games
left in the WNBA playoffs and we had hockey begin
on Tuesday night next week. You got basketball. The NBA starts,
great time to grab those all access packages so you
never miss a play from your favorite handicapper. Kelly, We're
gonna go with the same playbook I ran last week.
Our best bet last week came home. We laid some
chalk with Texas.
Speaker 3: A and M.
Speaker 4: But it was one of those scenarios where I absolutely
loved the setup going into the game, and I've got
a carbon copy of it. This week, we're gonna take
a look at James Madison. I love what people are
gonna do with this game because they're gonna look at
what they just saw last and overreact to it. Last week. Louisiana,
James Madison's opponent this week was in a shootout with Marshall.
They won in double overtime fifty four to fifty one,
while James Madison was playing a fourteen to seven Snoozefest
victory over Georgia State. They were a twenty point favorite
in that game. The knee jerk reaction for the betting
public's gonna be. I got one team that scored fifty
four points. I got another team that only scored fourteen
last week, and they're laying eighteen this week. Yeah, where
do I sign up? I can't get enough of the
dog not so fast, my friends. As Lee Corso would say,
I love taking a good team, and let me tell you,
James Madison is a very good team for this conference.
I love taking those teams when they come off a
scare like they had last week. You also have the
situation because of that scare, you know that team's gonna
come to play and they're going to be focused. You
also are going to get the benefit of some line
value because the market's gonna overreact to what they saw
last week and the fact that Louisiana scored fifty four
points last week that was against Marshall. Take a look
at Marshall's defensive stats.
Speaker 3: They're futrid.
Speaker 4: Okay, They're gonna be going against James Madison, who has
an elite defense. James Madison has only allowed one team
in five games to score over thirteen points. That one
team was Louisville. That was a team from a Power
five conference, the ACC, and they held them to twenty
eight points, where Louisville generally scores more than that. This
is a horrible Louisiana defense, especially against the run. They
allow two hundred and twenty two yards per game against
the ground on the ground. Why do I bring that up,
especially in a game where you're laying eighteen points. What
do I care about the ground game? That's important when
you're laying a big number. James Madison averages two hundred
and forty three yards per game on the ground. So
what that means is when James Madison builds a big
lead in the second half and you get to that
fourth quarter and you have so many times teams just
want to try to milk the clock and get out
of there. They're going to be doing what they do best.
So not only are they shortening the game when they
have a big lead, they're protecting the lead. They can
add to the lead because they do what they do best.
Whereas so often you have a passing team that suddenly
tries to run the football in the fourth quarter to
protect the lead, and that's just disaster. That's how you
get back door it. That doesn't happen with a good
running team. Go ahead and lay the points. This one
is going to be blowout city. I've got James Madison
winning forty one to thirteen is my college best bet
for bet on it.
Speaker 1: Oooh I went back and forth on my best bet
for this week and marking dog. There's like six hunderdogs
I like to out right, but this team they owe
us after last week, and you guys know exactly where
I'm going.
Speaker 2: We're gonna take the points here with Maryland.
Speaker 1: I cannot believe I'm standing by the hotel pool with
a bunch of kids wanting to watch the Yankees.
Speaker 2: Maryland's up twenty. Change the channel, Kelly, change the channel.
They're up twenty. The game's over. Well, guess what the
game was not over?
Speaker 1: You're gonna think Maryland might want that one back twenty
four unanswered by Washington, and here we are backing them
again as an underdog at home. Speaking of Washington, Maleague
Washington quarterback for Maryland, has been absolutely electric, completing almost
seventy percent of his passes, and that is why I
like this team. This offense is running on all cylinders.
Now if the defense can come up with a couple
of turnovers, I believe they can beat the corn Huskers here,
mainly because Nebraska hasn't won anything on the road, just
one of their last seven road games.
Speaker 2: What do we expect from the Cornhuskers?
Speaker 1: They're gonna run the ball, they're gonna try to eat
up the clock, and we know they're gonna play smash
mouth defense. So great passing defense versus great passing offense,
two worlds collide, and I expect this to be a
lower scoring game, making points at a premium. Speaking of defense,
Maryland's defense is getting no credit at all, but they're
only giving up twelve and a half.
Speaker 2: Points per game on the season.
Speaker 1: So yes, last week was kind of an anomaly, and
we're gonna give the Terps a second chance. We're gonna
sprinkle a little bit on that money line because Maryland
will make my parlay for this week. All right, guys,
that's it for the college edition of Beat on It.
Let's get that recap graphic up for all of you
guys that have requested it. We brought you back to music,
We brought you back the recap graphic. All we're asking
is a little bit of love from you while it's
in the comments, whether it's on that like button or
hitting subscribe. Thank you to VR, thank you to Marco.
Of course, if you're looking for that NFL edition of
you can find it right here. And if you're looking
for everything, we do here on the show NFL College Football,
and no special segments right here on the Mega show