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Speaker 1: Week seven of college football. Boy, does that sound crazy

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to say out loud. We've got a bunch of top

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twenty five matchups, barking dogs, best bets, the deli's still cooking,

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and that train is still rolling down the tracks.

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Speaker 2: Let's get into this week's episode of bet on It.

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Speaker 1: All right, Kelly Stewart here joined by Yanni the Greek

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and Marco DiAngelo. This is the college football edition of

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bet on It. So we're gonna get into some of

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these top twenty five games, and I'm going to go first,

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twelve pm Eastern.

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Speaker 2: Number one Ohio State is.

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Speaker 1: A two touchdown favorite at number seventeen Illinois forty nine

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and a half here is a total and actually the

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Buckeyes have that hook hanging on that has me looking

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towards the lin nine. Now, one could argue that the

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Buckeyes owned the series, but these who have not played

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each other since November of twenty seventeen, and since losing

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to Michigan in that close regular season loss last year,

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Ohio State has gone nine and oh straight up eight

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oho to one against the spread. But hey, Brett Blama

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and the line I are not far behind. Since their

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bye week in mid November of last year ALNI nine

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and one straight up and against the spread. And you

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guys remember that lone loss at Indiana earlier this season.

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I'm sure the Illinois team would like to forget that

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one as well. But I like this Illinois team here

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at home catching points double digits for BLEMMA as a

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home dog.

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Speaker 2: I think you guys know what to do.

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Speaker 1: I might not get to the window with this team,

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but Illinois in some contest plays will.

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Speaker 2: Be it for me. Three point thirty PM Eastern number

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seven Indiana down to seven and a half half.

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Speaker 1: This one opened at ten there on Sunday night at

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CIRCA at number three organ total fifty five and a

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half VR.

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Speaker 2: What do you make of this line move before you

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get into the total here.

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Speaker 3: I wasn't surprised. Listen our, Oregon's top top three in

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the country as far as power ratings go, but Indiana's

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right there as well, and I think they got them

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ranked correctly. You know, I've been able to take advantage

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of the incorrect rankings based mostly on records than anything else.

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And I talk about it all the time how the

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cream does eventually rise to the top. But this is

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just a perfect example of the rankings being on point

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with the power ratings, and based on that, I wasn't

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surprised to see some money come in on the dog.

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But where sits now, I don't think there's all that

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much value on the side, So I'm going to look

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to the total, and I think we're going to get

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extra couple points by going under here based on the

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high profile offenses. And obviously both teams coming in having

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put up decent amount of points week in and week out,

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but if you look at the defensive side of the ball,

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both teams have allowed more than fourteen points only one

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time that was it. So you're looking at two high

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level defenses, and usually that's the perfect storm to go

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over because the market overreacts to just how good the

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defenses are. So the lines shaded towards that bias. And

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I talk about it all the time. Defenses create points

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as well turnovers special teams. But because we're talking about

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the high profile offense of Oregon and the narrative about

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them being a team that puts up a lot of

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points and Indiana doing the same thing more or less

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week in and week out, we got a higher line

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than it should be, sitting at about fifty five to

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fifty five and a half. And it's a telling sign

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that this line hasn't gone up even though you're starting

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to see the public lining up on that over. So

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definitely some resistance from sharp betters. I agree with that.

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So we're going to go under fifty five for the

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TV game this week.

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Speaker 1: Speaking of those defenses, Wow, three thirty pm Eastern, number six,

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Oklahoma is headed to the Cotton Bowl to take on Texas. Now,

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this Lions flipped back and forth between who was the

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favorite the current one here on the odds loigest screen

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Oklahoma minus one and a half total forty two and

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a half.

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Speaker 2: Marco.

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Speaker 1: That's what I'm looking at in this one. I'm like,

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everybody wants to talk about these two defenses. We've seen

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this Red River rivalry shootout, whatever you want to call

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it these days be an absolute score fest. Before I

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thought forty two and a half was really low. But

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you're actually looking at a side here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I am.

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Speaker 4: And as you said, the line's gone back and forth,

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And when I did the game last night, I was

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looking at it. Actually Texas was the favorite last night.

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This is what tells the story for me. You look

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at this game. And you've got Oklahoma, who is ranked

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sixth in the nation, and you got Texas, who, if

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you remember, came into the season as the number one

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team in the country in the preseason rankings. And what happened, Well,

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they lose that opening game against Ohio State, and then

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last week against all teams winless Florida, they get beat

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last week and all of a sudden, they're out of

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the top twenty five. We're getting value with this Texas team,

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in my opinion, and the market corrected itself. When you've

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got even if it's a pick them plus one minus one,

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you got a ranked team versus an unranked team that

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sends up all the red flags in the world that

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Oklahoma might just be overrated in this one. And let's

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be honest, they are undefeated, but they really only had

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two signature wins. And if you look at the two

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signature wins, the first one came against Michigan at home,

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and that was the second game of the season for them,

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and it was the first game for Michigan quarterback on

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the road. You know, they got that highly talented freshman

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at Michigan, But going into Oklahoma for your first road game,

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that's a tall order for anyone. And you know they

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got the win there. Their other win, well, they had

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a touchdown victory over Auburn, and you know the jury

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is still out. Is all Burn a decent team not

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a decent team. It was a lackluster performance. I think

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Texas they're playing with house money now, granted normally, and

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VR mentioned it last week and shout out to him

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when he talked about the Penn State UCLA game and

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talking about dream Crusher games. A team that had expectations

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to win a national championship. When you lose for the

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second time, your season's over as far as the national

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championship goes. But because they are playing their heated rival,

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I'm not gonna play that card yet. For the dream Crusher.

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They want to wreck somebody else's dream And if you

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can knock Oklahoma from the ranks of the unbeaten, they're

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gonna show up for this game. I'm gonna go ahead.

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I am gonna take Texas. You talk about defense, There's

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never been a problem with the Texas defense at all.

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The problem has been with arch Manning. But if he

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has a clean game and just improves at all, I

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think they win this football game. I'm gonna go with them, Texas.

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In the other part of being out of it, that

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gives them the opportunity, Kelly, to take chances in the game.

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Speaker 3: What do they have to lose?

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Speaker 4: You can gamble more on fourth downs. You know, when

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you're sitting there with two losses, it's not like you're

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playing not to lose instead of playing to win. I'll

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go ahead and take Texas. Can't really call it an upset,

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but it will be an unranked team knocking off a

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ranked team.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, upset, at least in the of the talking head

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since they don't actually follow the points spreads. We want

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to give you guys a big shout out for following

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us here on bet on It. Make sure you guys

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give us that thumbs up button, hit the like, and

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of course subscribe, and we're looking to become a wager

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Talk insider wt dot buzz backslash Insiders gets you tons

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of extra content, early content, and of course a five

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dollars couponto use each month over at wager talk dot

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com VR.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna get up to you next.

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Speaker 1: The steam room has been rocking and rolling on Sundays

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in the NFL edition. But you guys get your own

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preview of what that looks like right here on bet

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on It each week. Where have we seen the money

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going early on Wednesday afternoon VR.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, And let's talk about some of these more key

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games in college football. I'll start off with Florida getting

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points once again Steam Florida. It seems like this entire

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season they've been taking the Florida side. They took the

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eight and a half and they took the eight point floor.

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Also double digits took South Carolina plus the ten over

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the LSU side. We also saw Oklahoma money at that

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opener of three got beat down really quickly. Oklahoma money

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line Oklahoma plus two and a half, Oklahoma plus two.

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Seeing a lot of law on Oklahoma one ninety seven

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Indiana I already touched on them against Oregon. A lot

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of that value has been extracted. They took the eight

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off the board as well there. Florida State laid the

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chalk with Florida State against Pitt laid the nine, laid

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the nine and a half, laid the ten there. Then

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Miszoo against Alabama taking the home dog there at plus

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four plus three and a half. That's why you're looking

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at a field goal game now, then Arizona State plus

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the six at Utah, and finally BYU minus one against Arizona.

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Those are some of the more high profile games. Haven't

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seen a move on that Georgia Auburn yet. I haven't

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seen sharp money, but still a little early in the week.

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And again a lot of those less profile games you're

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seeing movement. But pay attention on Thursdays. I talked about

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it before. That's when you'll see the totals move after

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nine am Pacific time. Pay attention to the Odds Logic.

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Some of the biggest total moves come on Thursdays.

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Speaker 1: You guys are looking for a free week trial of

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odds Logic. Oddslogic dot Com, backslash Ace get you one

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free week so you guys can check that out, and

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if not, we still have the Wager Talk Free Odds page,

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wt dot Buzz, backslash Odds. Let's get into those barking dogs, guys,

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because it has been by far our best segment not

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only here on the College Football Show, but also in

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the NFL Show.

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Speaker 2: Marco and I, well, let's put it this way.

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Speaker 1: Marco's got a double digit barking dog because he's going

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to try to keep up with what VR some alpulled

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out last week and it wasn't even close. Great called

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by VR. We didn't even have to swept that one.

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But Marco, I love this. This is a double digit

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dog that was also on my radar. I don't know

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if I'm gonna get to the window with the money line,

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but maybe I could use a little convincing.

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Speaker 4: Well, you gotta put a little sprinkle, Kelly, come on,

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you gotta put a little seasoning in the stew there

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for Saturday. And this is one of those ones where

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this is the poster child for the saying that I

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do all the time. No team is as good as

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their best game, nor are they as bad as their

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worst game. Enter Clemson in Boston College. Clemson's coming off

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their best game of the year. They won thirty eight

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to ten over North Carolina. Well, let's point out the

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two obvious things. First of all, North Carolina stikes. Okay,

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that's the first part. Second part, Clemson had two weeks

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to prepare for that game, and Clemson was coming off

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the last time they played, they were an eighteen point

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favorite at home to Syracuse and lost outright. So you

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had a very focused Clemson team playing a very bad

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North Carolina team, and that's what you got, a thirty

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eight to ten blow up. On the flip side of that,

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you had Boston College that absolutely got boat race at

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Pittsburgh last week forty eight to seven. It was a

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pillar to postgame from pitt Pitt even changed quarterbacks for

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that game. Guy made his first start and just drilled

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Boston College. Now you look at that when a couple

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things from that one.

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Speaker 3: Boston College was.

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Speaker 4: Minus three and turnovers that helped the game spin out

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of control quickly. And it was a horrible scheduling spot

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for Boston College. They had been playing a bunch of

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road games early in the season and it was their

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third road game out of their past four. And in

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those three road games that they had in the last four,

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one of them was a cross country trip to Stanford.

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We've talked about this silliness with the ACC schedule with

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California and Stanford. You know, playing in the ACC just

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doesn't make sense with trave and it creates problems for

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teams going west or those teams coming east. This is

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also a spot where do you think they were looking

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ahead to Clemson a little bit? You know, which do

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you get more excited about going to Pitt or playing Clemson.

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I'm gonna go ahead and take Boston College in this one.

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Prior to that pit debacle, their three losses were by two,

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ten and four points. They were very competitive in all

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of their games. I am not sold on Clemson just yet.

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And yes, I realized Boston College sitting at one and four,

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what do they got to play for? Well, when your

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season's over early, yeah, you risk mailing it in the

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rest of the season, except you're gonna circle a couple

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of games on your schedule. And I looked at the

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remaining schedule for Boston College and if they're so called

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quote bowl games for them will be this Clemson game

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and later in the year when Notre Dame comes to town.

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Other than that, I probably will not be involved in

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a Boston College game unless I'm going against them. But

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this week we're going to take them plus the points.

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I think this is going to be much closer than

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people think, and we'll go ahead and put just a

257
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little sprinkle on the money line as well. I got

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to try to keep up with VR, but again, congrats

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to him on that call with UCLA least.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, now I gotta try to keep up with both

261
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of you, because VR also has a double digit dog,

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and I thought my nine point underdog was going to

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be sufficient. It is apparently not. Now we have a

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competition going on here VR. This one's well. As a

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girl who follows the big swill very closely, we'll just

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call it interesting. Tell me why you like Oklahoma State

267
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here in this spot.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and I gave this out to subscribers as a

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premium play immediately. Number one, I think Houston's over valued team,

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00:14:50,679 --> 00:14:53,440
a little bit overrated. Sitting at four and one, they've

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had a very easy strength of schedule. In fact, it's

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the seventy close to the eightieth toughest schedule so far

273
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in college football. So not surprised they're sitting at four

274
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and one. But if you look, even though they've done

275
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well against the spread, also you know they're they're profitable

276
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at three and two. They haven't been winning with big margin,

277
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meaning it's not like they're putting up forty plus points

278
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in game. In fact, the most they put up was

279
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thirty six points to cover fourteen and a half. You know,

280
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you've got to be able to put up a lot

281
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of points, and I think as bad as Oklahoma State

282
00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:36,679
has looked offensively and defensively. They've had a much tougher

283
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strength of schedule to date, and I think if anything,

284
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they're going to improve off of that. They're going to

285
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start to progress towards the mean. They're not that bad

286
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of a football team, as they've shown to date. With

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that said, Houston's strength is their defense. That's where they're

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you know, most efficient. At least it's it's appeared that

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way so far this early in the season. They're ninth

290
00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:05,919
nationally in yardage per game, but dig a little deeper

291
00:16:06,399 --> 00:16:10,200
into the metrics and they're probably in like the top

292
00:16:10,320 --> 00:16:15,000
forty defensively overall their efficiency, so they're not a top

293
00:16:15,039 --> 00:16:17,720
ten defense like it appears. That's just you know, against

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00:16:17,799 --> 00:16:21,679
yardage allowed, which stat doesn't mean all that much. So

295
00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:24,960
I think they're getting a little too much credit for

296
00:16:25,080 --> 00:16:27,000
their defense, and I think a lot of that has

297
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to do with that strength of schedule. Also, their stud

298
00:16:30,919 --> 00:16:34,840
quarterback had that concussion protocol last week, so we know

299
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he's not one hundred percent. They're going to want to

300
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be careful with him for sure. In Oklahoma State tough environment,

301
00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:46,039
a strong home field advantage almost three points, about two

302
00:16:46,080 --> 00:16:49,840
point eight, something that's pretty high for college football. Getting

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00:16:49,879 --> 00:16:53,000
two touchdowns plus I think is a gift. It's worth

304
00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:56,840
a little sprinkle on the money line as well. Again,

305
00:16:57,279 --> 00:16:59,480
we're going to hit back to back big money lines

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find out Saturday. But I do think they could keep

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this within the number. I think Houston's one of those

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phony four and one teams, and I think Oklahoma State's

309
00:17:09,440 --> 00:17:12,519
not as bad as they've looked. Again, streank Off schedule

310
00:17:12,519 --> 00:17:14,279
had a lot to do with it. Give me the

311
00:17:14,319 --> 00:17:17,720
two touchdowns with Oklahoma State and sprinkle that money line

312
00:17:17,799 --> 00:17:20,000
because it's a generous, generous number.

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Speaker 1: I know a lot of people may say that Oklahoma

314
00:17:22,839 --> 00:17:26,000
State doesn't have some big hold home field advantage because

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00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:28,400
they fired Gundy and their team's done any good. You

316
00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:31,000
guys haven't been paying attention. They have still been packing

317
00:17:31,039 --> 00:17:33,759
that house. It is absolutely wild to see, as somebody

318
00:17:33,759 --> 00:17:36,960
who is kind of a fair Weather fan themselves this season.

319
00:17:37,160 --> 00:17:40,599
That being said, I'm taking a nine point underdog, the

320
00:17:40,640 --> 00:17:44,279
littlest dog here on the board in South Carolina. So

321
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I was happy to hear VRSA during the season teamitment

322
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that he saw sharp money come from ten to nine.

323
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There look LSU They won the last eight meetings, including

324
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that crazy road win thirty six thirty three last year

325
00:17:57,400 --> 00:18:01,000
in Colombia. If you guys remember, South Carolina jumped out

326
00:18:01,039 --> 00:18:06,039
early seventeen to nothing over the Tigers, but boom, Lenora

327
00:18:06,119 --> 00:18:07,839
Sellers gets knocked out of the game with the injury

328
00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:11,480
and the game Cocks get refed to death thirteen penalties

329
00:18:11,480 --> 00:18:13,759
for one hundred and twenty three yards. I think it's

330
00:18:13,759 --> 00:18:16,279
probably fair to say the game Cocks have this one circled. Yes,

331
00:18:16,359 --> 00:18:18,920
both teams are coming off of bye, but I think

332
00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:22,000
this LSU team is not as good as everybody had

333
00:18:22,039 --> 00:18:25,279
thought over the summertime ten and three against the spreading

334
00:18:25,319 --> 00:18:28,680
their last thirteen sec matches. I like the game Cocks,

335
00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:31,759
and I'm gonna go and apologize to South Carolina because

336
00:18:31,920 --> 00:18:33,599
I can't wait to see how you guys lose this

337
00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:37,000
game in horrible fashion. Yes, that's what exactly happened last

338
00:18:37,000 --> 00:18:40,000
week to all of our underdogs. It is the kiss

339
00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:42,400
of death. If I put them in the barking dog segment,

340
00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:46,519
They're going to cover but not win. So apologies in advance.

341
00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:50,519
Let's get right into the deli. The deli has been

342
00:18:50,759 --> 00:18:55,400
rocket and rolling there. Marco sixteen to nine on this season.

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00:18:55,799 --> 00:18:59,359
You also do an additional Deli segment each week here

344
00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:01,279
on the wager Tis YouTube channel. Can you please let

345
00:19:01,319 --> 00:19:04,319
everybody know where they can find that and who the

346
00:19:04,319 --> 00:19:05,519
sandwich game of the week is.

347
00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:09,359
Speaker 4: Yeah, Yeah, Kelly, that's sixteen and nine record ditch you reference.

348
00:19:09,440 --> 00:19:12,240
That's on the Bonus edition of Marco's Delhi. We've had

349
00:19:12,279 --> 00:19:15,960
five episodes so far this season, five games each week.

350
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We've had four winning weeks out of five. Last week

351
00:19:19,240 --> 00:19:21,359
was our first losing week. We went two and three

352
00:19:21,799 --> 00:19:24,279
on the show last week, and we are sixteen and

353
00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:28,880
nine with these plays for the season, and tune in

354
00:19:29,519 --> 00:19:33,240
every Thursday we release it. It's out late on Thursday,

355
00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:37,559
and then it is part of the Mega podcast as well,

356
00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:42,039
the Mega Show here with the bed on It Show.

357
00:19:42,279 --> 00:19:45,119
So if you like what we do here and you

358
00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:48,359
want seconds, we give you one Deli special here every

359
00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:50,960
week on bed on It. You want five more and

360
00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:53,119
I break the games down and tell you the insights

361
00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:55,160
of how I'm looking at the games and what the

362
00:19:55,200 --> 00:19:59,960
situation is that I'm looking at. It's both educational and profit.

363
00:20:00,559 --> 00:20:04,079
Tune in every week to Marco's Deli for this week's

364
00:20:04,279 --> 00:20:07,400
Sandwich Game of the Week. Well, this was a game

365
00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:11,920
that last week made the Bonus Show. We took Wisconsin

366
00:20:12,039 --> 00:20:14,960
last week as one of those Deli specials. Now, it

367
00:20:15,039 --> 00:20:18,240
wasn't pretty, but he got there. They were plus seventeen

368
00:20:18,319 --> 00:20:22,000
against Michigan and they lost by fourteen. And the reason

369
00:20:22,079 --> 00:20:25,440
we were on Wisconsin that game is because Michigan was

370
00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:29,240
in a big sandwich spot last week. Well, this week

371
00:20:29,599 --> 00:20:32,640
it's Wisconsin who's in that sandwich spot. And it's a

372
00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:35,079
big one. If you look at Wisconsin are coming off

373
00:20:35,160 --> 00:20:38,880
playing Michigan last week, and guess what. Take a look

374
00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:42,359
at next week who they play. Yeah, that's right, They've

375
00:20:42,359 --> 00:20:44,759
got the number one team in the country coming to

376
00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:48,880
their house. Ohio State will be coming to town next week.

377
00:20:49,279 --> 00:20:52,200
Iowa has had two weeks to prepare for them. Now,

378
00:20:52,279 --> 00:20:56,759
when you that gives them a huge edge in this matchup. Offensively,

379
00:20:56,880 --> 00:20:59,880
these two teams are basically even. They put up about

380
00:20:59,880 --> 00:21:02,440
the same type of numbers. But where the difference is

381
00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:06,079
in between these two teams is the defense. Iowa has

382
00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:10,480
the upper hand. They're allowing just four point five yards

383
00:21:10,519 --> 00:21:15,960
per play defensively, given the superior defense, given the extra

384
00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:20,240
prep time, given the bad scheduling spot that we have

385
00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:23,759
Wisconsin in. There's only one way for me to go

386
00:21:23,799 --> 00:21:26,119
in this game, and I'm gonna go ahead and lay

387
00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:28,599
it with Iowa. Lay the three and a half in

388
00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:32,240
this one. I've got Iowa winning twenty three to thirteen. Yeah,

389
00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:34,720
it'll be one of those classic Iowa games. It's not

390
00:21:34,759 --> 00:21:36,960
gonna be a lot of points scored in it, but

391
00:21:37,039 --> 00:21:41,480
I like the Iowa Hawk guys to prevail on Saturday

392
00:21:41,559 --> 00:21:44,359
against Wisconsin as the sandwich game of the week.

393
00:21:45,079 --> 00:21:49,400
Speaker 1: All right, and it's time for best Bets VR. You're

394
00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:50,680
gonna be out first here.

395
00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:52,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's no surprise.

396
00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:54,720
Speaker 1: I think this trio is gonna be all over Texas,

397
00:21:54,720 --> 00:21:56,079
even though I need them to lose a couple more

398
00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:59,400
games for my season win total to go under the total.

399
00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:05,039
Speaker 3: So far, so good, and season on bet on It

400
00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:08,799
fourteen and four in college football, and I'm gonna fade

401
00:22:08,799 --> 00:22:11,160
the sharp money that's come in on Oklahoma. The only

402
00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:15,240
thing I don't like is the talk about the quarterback

403
00:22:15,279 --> 00:22:19,240
materia not being being a game time decision. He's gonna go.

404
00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:24,839
I don't like that negative on Oklahoma. I wish everything

405
00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:28,319
was positive on the Oklahoma side because here's the bottom line.

406
00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:33,319
Forget the handicap, forget the x's and o's. This is

407
00:22:33,559 --> 00:22:40,799
a simple case of an overreaction to a small sample size.

408
00:22:40,839 --> 00:22:45,400
And let me explain. Prior to the season starting, Oklahoma

409
00:22:45,519 --> 00:22:49,440
was nowhere near to top ten. Texas was third power

410
00:22:49,519 --> 00:22:54,160
rating wise, top five for sure amongst all sharp power ratings.

411
00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:56,720
Many had him top three, you know, top one or

412
00:22:56,720 --> 00:23:00,759
two for some. Okay, we saw them lose Ohio State

413
00:23:00,839 --> 00:23:04,119
the first week, No surprise. Ohio State's the best team

414
00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:06,759
in the country. They were before the season started. They

415
00:23:06,799 --> 00:23:09,440
were going into this week, all right. They lost that

416
00:23:09,519 --> 00:23:14,759
by a touchdown. Since then, the stock on Texas continues

417
00:23:14,799 --> 00:23:18,319
to drop, and the stock on Oklahoma's going off. But

418
00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:24,559
here's the bottom line. There's nowhere that Oklahoma is better,

419
00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:30,160
meaning like efficiency wise offense, you look at at Texas,

420
00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:35,680
they're top fifteen, Oklahoma barely in the top thirty. Defense,

421
00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:41,519
Texas top five, Oklahoma top ten. You look at power

422
00:23:41,599 --> 00:23:46,079
rating wise, I get it. Both Texas and Penn State

423
00:23:46,559 --> 00:23:49,400
have been dropped from the rankings. But I'm telling you

424
00:23:49,519 --> 00:23:54,799
right now, there are only let me see, maybe five

425
00:23:55,079 --> 00:24:00,279
or six teams that should be favored over Texas on

426
00:24:00,319 --> 00:24:04,160
a neutral field. That's correct. On a neutral field, only

427
00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:07,960
five or six teams should be favored over Texas. That

428
00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:11,039
doesn't mean that the books wouldn't make a team favored

429
00:24:11,079 --> 00:24:14,000
over Texas, because the book's job is to balance risk.

430
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:16,599
But what would happen if that is the case? You

431
00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:19,839
would see wise guys lining up and taking Texas because

432
00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:23,160
their power ratings reflect mind and mind show right now

433
00:24:23,279 --> 00:24:26,440
that Texas is still a top ten team in the country.

434
00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:30,880
Oklahoma is barely a top twenty team in the country,

435
00:24:31,319 --> 00:24:34,200
and that's going to play itself out with strength of

436
00:24:34,319 --> 00:24:39,640
schedule because up until now, Texas has played the tenth

437
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:43,960
toughest schedule in all of college football. Oklahoma's played the

438
00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:48,279
fifty eighth toughest schedule in all of college football. Well

439
00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:50,599
coming up for them over the rest of the season

440
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:54,440
top five, so we'll see what Oklahoma's made of over

441
00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:57,839
the next couple of weeks. With all that said, this

442
00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:02,400
is simply a power rating bet where I think that

443
00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:08,920
the market's so overreacted on Texas's short term results and like,

444
00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:11,119
what did they do? They haven't been getting blown out

445
00:25:11,519 --> 00:25:16,519
or anything like that. Again, get in Texas at to

446
00:25:16,559 --> 00:25:19,720
pick them at home minus one is a gift. They

447
00:25:19,759 --> 00:25:22,000
should be at least a three point favorite in this

448
00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:26,559
spot at minimum. Give me the Texas Longhorns, fade the

449
00:25:26,599 --> 00:25:29,880
wise guys, I love Texas on Saturday. Dude.

450
00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:34,160
Speaker 1: All right, Marco DiAngelo, before we get into your best bet,

451
00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:36,559
can you please let everybody know what is going on

452
00:25:36,599 --> 00:25:39,480
Over at wagertalk dot com. We have a new special

453
00:25:39,559 --> 00:25:41,519
up called the Weekend Warrior.

454
00:25:42,519 --> 00:25:44,559
Speaker 4: Yeah. Well that's been up for a few weeks, Kelly,

455
00:25:44,559 --> 00:25:47,759
and it's been a very successful, very popular. You can

456
00:25:47,759 --> 00:25:51,839
pick your favorite handicapper at wager talk forty nine dollars.

457
00:25:51,839 --> 00:25:56,279
You'll get all of their plays Saturday Sunday in football,

458
00:25:56,519 --> 00:25:59,079
and if your handicapper has to play on the Monday

459
00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:01,279
night football game, and there's two of them this week,

460
00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:04,599
so good chance your capper will have a play, you'll

461
00:26:04,599 --> 00:26:07,720
get that as a free bonus on Monday. Now, if

462
00:26:07,799 --> 00:26:11,200
you want to jump on board and get all the

463
00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:13,480
plays for a seven day period, we also have a

464
00:26:13,519 --> 00:26:17,319
seventy seven dollar package going at wager talk as well,

465
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and with a baseball playoffs in full swing. Few games

466
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:25,920
left in the WNBA playoffs and we had hockey begin

467
00:26:26,079 --> 00:26:29,799
on Tuesday night next week. You got basketball. The NBA starts,

468
00:26:30,079 --> 00:26:34,440
great time to grab those all access packages so you

469
00:26:34,519 --> 00:26:38,480
never miss a play from your favorite handicapper. Kelly, We're

470
00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:41,799
gonna go with the same playbook I ran last week.

471
00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:45,319
Our best bet last week came home. We laid some

472
00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:46,759
chalk with Texas.

473
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:46,920
Speaker 3: A and M.

474
00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:50,960
Speaker 4: But it was one of those scenarios where I absolutely

475
00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:53,839
loved the setup going into the game, and I've got

476
00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:56,440
a carbon copy of it. This week, we're gonna take

477
00:26:56,440 --> 00:27:00,400
a look at James Madison. I love what people are

478
00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:02,880
gonna do with this game because they're gonna look at

479
00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:07,519
what they just saw last and overreact to it. Last week. Louisiana,

480
00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:12,319
James Madison's opponent this week was in a shootout with Marshall.

481
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:16,359
They won in double overtime fifty four to fifty one,

482
00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:21,920
while James Madison was playing a fourteen to seven Snoozefest

483
00:27:22,319 --> 00:27:25,799
victory over Georgia State. They were a twenty point favorite

484
00:27:25,839 --> 00:27:28,640
in that game. The knee jerk reaction for the betting

485
00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:30,839
public's gonna be. I got one team that scored fifty

486
00:27:30,839 --> 00:27:33,799
four points. I got another team that only scored fourteen

487
00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:36,519
last week, and they're laying eighteen this week. Yeah, where

488
00:27:36,519 --> 00:27:38,319
do I sign up? I can't get enough of the

489
00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:42,200
dog not so fast, my friends. As Lee Corso would say,

490
00:27:42,599 --> 00:27:45,519
I love taking a good team, and let me tell you,

491
00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:50,000
James Madison is a very good team for this conference.

492
00:27:50,799 --> 00:27:53,119
I love taking those teams when they come off a

493
00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:56,759
scare like they had last week. You also have the

494
00:27:56,880 --> 00:28:00,000
situation because of that scare, you know that team's gonna

495
00:28:00,079 --> 00:28:02,839
come to play and they're going to be focused. You

496
00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:05,359
also are going to get the benefit of some line

497
00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:08,440
value because the market's gonna overreact to what they saw

498
00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:13,160
last week and the fact that Louisiana scored fifty four

499
00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:16,680
points last week that was against Marshall. Take a look

500
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:18,359
at Marshall's defensive stats.

501
00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:19,200
Speaker 3: They're futrid.

502
00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:23,000
Speaker 4: Okay, They're gonna be going against James Madison, who has

503
00:28:23,039 --> 00:28:27,880
an elite defense. James Madison has only allowed one team

504
00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:31,640
in five games to score over thirteen points. That one

505
00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:34,519
team was Louisville. That was a team from a Power

506
00:28:34,559 --> 00:28:38,279
five conference, the ACC, and they held them to twenty

507
00:28:38,279 --> 00:28:42,759
eight points, where Louisville generally scores more than that. This

508
00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:48,640
is a horrible Louisiana defense, especially against the run. They

509
00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:51,839
allow two hundred and twenty two yards per game against

510
00:28:51,839 --> 00:28:54,599
the ground on the ground. Why do I bring that up,

511
00:28:55,319 --> 00:28:58,480
especially in a game where you're laying eighteen points. What

512
00:28:58,519 --> 00:29:00,839
do I care about the ground game? That's important when

513
00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:04,480
you're laying a big number. James Madison averages two hundred

514
00:29:04,480 --> 00:29:07,200
and forty three yards per game on the ground. So

515
00:29:07,359 --> 00:29:09,920
what that means is when James Madison builds a big

516
00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:12,319
lead in the second half and you get to that

517
00:29:12,359 --> 00:29:15,200
fourth quarter and you have so many times teams just

518
00:29:15,279 --> 00:29:17,119
want to try to milk the clock and get out

519
00:29:17,119 --> 00:29:19,839
of there. They're going to be doing what they do best.

520
00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:22,480
So not only are they shortening the game when they

521
00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:25,839
have a big lead, they're protecting the lead. They can

522
00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:28,880
add to the lead because they do what they do best.

523
00:29:29,319 --> 00:29:32,559
Whereas so often you have a passing team that suddenly

524
00:29:32,559 --> 00:29:35,440
tries to run the football in the fourth quarter to

525
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:38,960
protect the lead, and that's just disaster. That's how you

526
00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:41,240
get back door it. That doesn't happen with a good

527
00:29:41,319 --> 00:29:43,640
running team. Go ahead and lay the points. This one

528
00:29:43,799 --> 00:29:46,960
is going to be blowout city. I've got James Madison

529
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:50,640
winning forty one to thirteen is my college best bet

530
00:29:50,799 --> 00:29:51,559
for bet on it.

531
00:29:52,759 --> 00:29:55,079
Speaker 1: Oooh I went back and forth on my best bet

532
00:29:56,039 --> 00:29:59,480
for this week and marking dog. There's like six hunderdogs

533
00:29:59,519 --> 00:30:02,680
I like to out right, but this team they owe

534
00:30:02,759 --> 00:30:04,960
us after last week, and you guys know exactly where

535
00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:05,400
I'm going.

536
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:07,440
Speaker 2: We're gonna take the points here with Maryland.

537
00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:11,799
Speaker 1: I cannot believe I'm standing by the hotel pool with

538
00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:14,599
a bunch of kids wanting to watch the Yankees.

539
00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:18,720
Speaker 2: Maryland's up twenty. Change the channel, Kelly, change the channel.

540
00:30:18,759 --> 00:30:22,279
They're up twenty. The game's over. Well, guess what the

541
00:30:22,319 --> 00:30:23,279
game was not over?

542
00:30:23,359 --> 00:30:26,519
Speaker 1: You're gonna think Maryland might want that one back twenty

543
00:30:26,519 --> 00:30:31,160
four unanswered by Washington, and here we are backing them

544
00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:34,839
again as an underdog at home. Speaking of Washington, Maleague

545
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:40,279
Washington quarterback for Maryland, has been absolutely electric, completing almost

546
00:30:40,279 --> 00:30:44,559
seventy percent of his passes, and that is why I

547
00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:48,440
like this team. This offense is running on all cylinders.

548
00:30:48,680 --> 00:30:50,799
Now if the defense can come up with a couple

549
00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:54,359
of turnovers, I believe they can beat the corn Huskers here,

550
00:30:54,680 --> 00:30:59,079
mainly because Nebraska hasn't won anything on the road, just

551
00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:02,240
one of their last seven road games.

552
00:31:02,799 --> 00:31:04,160
Speaker 2: What do we expect from the Cornhuskers?

553
00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:06,000
Speaker 1: They're gonna run the ball, they're gonna try to eat

554
00:31:06,039 --> 00:31:08,279
up the clock, and we know they're gonna play smash

555
00:31:08,319 --> 00:31:12,480
mouth defense. So great passing defense versus great passing offense,

556
00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:15,240
two worlds collide, and I expect this to be a

557
00:31:15,279 --> 00:31:18,799
lower scoring game, making points at a premium. Speaking of defense,

558
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:21,440
Maryland's defense is getting no credit at all, but they're

559
00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:23,000
only giving up twelve and a half.

560
00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:25,160
Speaker 2: Points per game on the season.

561
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:27,880
Speaker 1: So yes, last week was kind of an anomaly, and

562
00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:31,359
we're gonna give the Terps a second chance. We're gonna

563
00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:34,000
sprinkle a little bit on that money line because Maryland

564
00:31:34,039 --> 00:31:37,599
will make my parlay for this week. All right, guys,

565
00:31:37,799 --> 00:31:40,599
that's it for the college edition of Beat on It.

566
00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:43,799
Let's get that recap graphic up for all of you

567
00:31:43,839 --> 00:31:46,359
guys that have requested it. We brought you back to music,

568
00:31:46,400 --> 00:31:49,319
We brought you back the recap graphic. All we're asking

569
00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:51,000
is a little bit of love from you while it's

570
00:31:51,039 --> 00:31:53,480
in the comments, whether it's on that like button or

571
00:31:53,559 --> 00:31:56,960
hitting subscribe. Thank you to VR, thank you to Marco.

572
00:31:57,359 --> 00:31:59,759
Of course, if you're looking for that NFL edition of

573
00:32:00,359 --> 00:32:02,119
you can find it right here. And if you're looking

574
00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:05,440
for everything, we do here on the show NFL College Football,

575
00:32:05,440 --> 00:32:07,759
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