Speaker 1: Welcome to the Blitz. Free plays for Week three of
college football coming right up. If you're watching us live
here on the wage Talk YouTube channel, start firing off
those questions right now. Any game you want to talk about,
we will be happy to oblige. Of course, we're talking
all the big games for sure. That means Georgia, Tennessee,
Order Dave, Texas, A and m Uss, Miami, Florida, LSU Arkansas,
Ole Miss and Vanderbilt South Carolina. Here to help me
break things down. Ralph Michaels and Ross Benjamin In great
news for all of you, the three of us have
decided we like each other so much that we are
now the permanent team here on the Blitz each and
every week. So it's me, Ralph and Ross every Thursday,
live here at one pm on the wage Talk YouTube channel. Ross,
I'm gonna go to you first here for Georgia and Tennessee.
This is a situation where we have seen significant line movement.
We did see significant line movement early in the week.
Number drop from Georgia minus six down to Georgia minus
three and a half. I will tell everyone whether this
is true or not remains to be seen. However, a
little birdie has indicated to me that we are going
to see some sharp money come in on Georgia in
the next twenty four hours or so. Ross, how are
you looking at this all important SEC match up?
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, look, whether this sharp money comes in
on Georgia or not. The line moved from six to
three and a half, right, and I would say that
that's not public money. So we might be split here
and the little birdie in the room that you heard from,
I respect your opinion on that. But look, here's the thing.
Tennessee is twenty four and one in their last twenty
five in Knoxville, and that includes in twenty games against
FBS opponents going nineteen and or twenty one games against
FBS opponents going twenty and one, in fourteen and seven
against the spread. Ironically enough, they're only loss in that
sequence came to Georgia. I just think this is a
Tennessee team that's built to make a national title run
this year. I mean, they can move the ball offensively.
I like their transfer quarterback. Their defense we know is
experienced and very good. Georgia to me, I mean especially
last week when I look at their game last week
against Austin P they win twenty eight to six. I
think they could be had, especially early in the season.
So I'm gonna have a small lean toward Tennessee here.
And if Brian's right, maybe you're better off waiting near
game time where you in order over the next twenty
four hours, like he said, and you'll get a better number.
But even at three and a half, I like Tennessee
in the spot.
Speaker 1: Okay, I was doing this Ross because of your anything
what to do with your breakdown, It was because Georgia
I think could be accused the last two weeks of
perhaps they'll sleep walking through their first two oponents. They
knew they weren't going to be tested by Marshall and
Austin P. But Tennessee, certainly Ralph a different story in
a big, bad SEC opponent. Nobody is more keenly aware
of the trends than you, Georgia. Let's talk about the
rivalry here. Ross mentioned a previous Georgia victory here in Knoxville. Well,
last eight meetings overall, Georgia eight, No, straight up. They've
won those eight games by an average twenty five points
per game. Now, some of those were when the Tennessee
program was down, but George's covered the spread in seven
of those eight wins as well. What do you think
does that history play into your handicap here at all
for Saturday?
Speaker 3: But you know, Brian, let me go back to your
little your little statement. Not only is Georgia zero to
two maybe sleepwalking this year, Georgia is one and eleven
against the spread their last twelve games as a favorite period,
It doesn't matter who they play as a favorite, they're
one and eleven. You know what that is? That is
eight percent. Now, this was an interesting trend, and I said,
how much does this really apply because we're only two
games into the new season. But I looked at early
in the season, this has been successful. Home dogs that
have won at least seven straight home games obviously you
can carry over a season are sixty six and forty
one sixty two percent against the spread, and conference home
dogs in that role are sixty four percent. Georgia, by
the way, as an away favorite, only three and eight
ats their last eleven. When I looked at top twenty
home dogs, they've gone twenty three and eighteen fifty six
percent against the spread. If they're in the first two
months of the season, they've gone sixty percent against the spread,
and if they're a conference home dog, they are seventy
three percent against the spread. So that is two top
twenty teams, a conference home dog seventy three percent ats.
And if you are one that bets money on the
bets the money line and you like Tennessee, listen to
the stat and think about it for a minute, conference
away dog, they excuse me, in those eleven in those
twenty two games, the straight up the dog is eleven
and eleven straight up with an average line of plus
five point eight. So that means if you bet those
twenty two games, if you're plus five point eight, that
translates to a minus minus two fifty money line. Eleven
of those twenty two teams have won outright. I lean, Tennessee.
I'm concerned George's offense. Even though they slept walked. You
still just do better than averaging five point one yards
per carrying against Marshall and against Austin Pay. I'm gonna
side with Ross here and back the volunteers as well.
Speaker 1: Okay, I'm gonna.
Speaker 2: Say I'm seeing a four and a half at FanDuel
as well, So it's three and a half across the
board four and a half at FanDuel.
Speaker 1: So okay, if you like Tennessee, that's the place to go,
fan Duel, I think the line is going to Like
I said, if you like Georgia right now, I think
that you should bet them now because I think I
think it's going to go to four and a half
pretty much across the board soon. Something we need to
point out to the top two point. The starting quarterbacks
for Tennessee are out of this game, so that's something
to watch in the Georgia offense, which Ralph mentioned has struggled,
has kind of you know whatever the first week and
they wake up and they take advantage of that. All right,
next game on the list should be a good one.
Saturday Night. It is text A and M and ordered
game's opened this season against one another. Last year, I
had the first half under in that game. That was
a winner. I kind of like the over though this year. Ross,
What do you think here? Before the season, I did
a special edition of the Power five. I said, gave
out some win totals. I said, bet A and M
over eight and a half at plus one fifty if
they win Saturday Night, I'm ding I think I'm dancing
in the streets. So that win total, I think that's
gonna be looking pretty good. But here's the problem. They're
two and thirteen against the number under Elko, including oh
and two this season and an underdog, so yeah.
Speaker 2: I mean, and you look at Texas A and M.
They've had struggles on the road the last few seasons.
Notre Dame coming off that heartbreaking loss against Miami of Florida.
They did have a bye week last week. Texas A
and M. Although they're two and oh, I'm just they
haven't wollwed me. When I watched them. They beat UTSA
and they also beat help me out, guys, the other
team Gate. Yeah, so I mean, it's not like they
won by twenty two or twenty one points in each game,
but they didn't come close to covering and the opposition
moved the ball on them. And Notre Dame here keep
this in mind. Under Marcus Freeman, they're five and oh
straight up, and ATS coming off of bye during regular
season action, six and oh straight up, and ATS coming
off a loss in their last six under Marcus Freeman.
So remember, Marcus Freeman got off to a terrible start
at Notre Dame. Losing his first two games, and I
think he's somewhere around thirty three and eight since then.
And the Irish coming off a loss playing in their
home opener, And unlike Texas A and M, who could
really if they lose a game, they're still alive. You'd
be hard pressed to make a case for Notre Dame
if they start out zero to two here as having
any kind of decent chance to make the college football playoffs.
So I think the urgency lives with Notre Dame here,
and I'm willing to lay at six and a half
at home against the Aggies.
Speaker 1: Oh all right, Ralph, I mentioned elko struggles at the
old pay Wind. Marcus Freeman Ross referenced it. He's been
quite good. He's been quite profitable back even though Notre
Dame did drop that season opener as a road favorite
down in Coral Gables. How are you looking at this game?
Speaker 3: So it has A and M been tested, obviously not
they haven't played one of the worst schedules in the country,
but it's been pretty bad. And I found this very interesting.
Speaker 1: Guys.
Speaker 3: There's times that even when I run data that I'm
completely shocked. I ran the query guys that says what
happens in game three. If you were a home favorite
of twenty one points or more and you won each
of those games by at least double digits, and now
you're an away dog, it hasn't happened very much. But
those away dogs since twenty and sixteen are actually sixty
two percent against the spread. So I was gonna say this.
I think A and M is an overrated two and
O team based on who they played. You know, yes,
they have a dynamic offense with a couple of incredible
wide receivers. You know, Carver has been amazing, Concepcion has
been great. It really allows Marcel Reid to stretch the field.
I do like Notre Dame's defense, though, yes, they allowed
three hundred and twenty four yards, but remember this is
three hundred and twenty four yards to a Miami team
that was one of the top offensive teams, that had
a quarterback that was a transfer from Georgia. They were
on the road in that situation, So I don't think
at the end of the year, I think that three
hundred and twenty four yards that Notre Dame allowed is
going to be an actual positive number versus right now
into the break, it looks like a negative. I did
look up two other things that I wanted to share
with you. Teams off a ranked loss, So you are
a ranked opponent and you lost, and now you have
a buy on and you are off a buy those
teams are only forty nine percent at home. So it doesn't,
it doesn't. It doesn't. Not a positive, not a negative.
But I still want to share that data with you.
So if you have those type of thoughts, you know
what the results are. But when that team is off
a ranked loss game and they had a buy they
are seventy percent to the under the last thirty six games,
eleven overs and twenty five unders. And that's where I'm
going to go here, Big Game, National TV. I like
these teams having to feel each other out. I'm going
to go under first half in this and it's actually
one of my top three plays from the games we're
going to talk about under first half, Notre Dame, Texas A.
Speaker 1: And m Okay, there you go. Of course, guys, here
each and every week in the let's we've got you
covered with the biggest games on Saturday State. But we
also believe no stone unturned if you're watching live you
can ask us about any game you want to hear
about it, and many are doing that right now in
the chat. I'm gonna go to a question from Adam
because he wants to know about Georgia Tech and Clemson.
I'm going to this game right now, Ross because the
line movement. It's a very similar story to what we
talked about earlier. Just a few moments ago in the
Georgia Tennessee game, the market decided this number was too
high at the opening, and money came in on the dog.
We know. Brent Key at Georgia Tech has been fantastic
as an underdog. I believe they've covered six straight at
home against ranked opponents. I'm gonna look that up in
a minute after you're done breaking this down. Maybe Ralph
also has that one handy, but Gia Tech it's been
very live in the home underdog role against top teams.
Under tea, what do you think Clems does? Not looked
good at all the first two we need to go.
Speaker 2: I mean, talk to me. Yeah, they had to come
back from a sixteen to nothing deficit against Troy last
week to win twenty seven to sixteen. They did have
a strong second half. Maybe they can carry that momentum over.
But you know, I was high on Georgia Tech to
start the season, although they just went seven and six
year ago. They were might pick to win the ACC
at plus seven hundred and this certainly, if I'm thinking
Georgia Tech's gonna win the ACC, they're real live for
me right here, and you're looking at a Georgia Tech
team that you know, look, they didn't even play with
Haines King, their quarterback, who I think is the best
quarterback in the ACC, went healthy, and I know I'm
gonna get a lot of argument there. But having said that,
he didn't even play last week, and they put up
monster offensive numbers. They were very good in their season
opening win against Colorado twenty seven to twenty. They were
pretty much in control of that game from start to finish,
although it was just a seven point difference. And Haines
King again, if he's healthy this week, I like Georgia
Tech even more. If he's not, I still like Georgia Tech.
I think Georgia Tech wins this game outright. Clemson again
losing the LSU at home seventeen to ten and listless
last week, and now they go on the road for
the first time. This is a huge game for Georgia Tech,
and I think they'll be prepared and ready to get
the cover here at home.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and Ross. Something else that the folks need to
remember in case that they didn't watch that game or
had forgotten about it. The Georgia Tech season opener against Colorado.
Georgia Tech should have won that game by more because
they turned them all over on their first three possessions.
If they don't to turn the ball over three times
and still win, that says something if you could, because
usually if you turn the ball over three times, you're
not winning a football game. Georgia Tech did against Coach
Prime and coloradat there in the opener, Ralph, I have
to have the trends right now in front of me
under Key. Georgia Tech nine and five ats against ranked opponents.
They are a perfect six for six as a conference
dog of single digits that Miami last year's well, mister Key,
and those trends continue here on Saturday's a new kickoff
against Clemson.
Speaker 3: If Haines King was one hundred percent healthy and he
practiced this entire week, I would have been on Georgia Tech. Uh,
he's been limited practice. They do expect them to play,
but to me, I'm going to lay off this. I
do probably have some uh some firestarter in a Clemson
National Championship ticket that I bet. So yeah, no, no
team has been uh uh again, losing d LSU is
not a bad loss, but again, just just the vibes
you get from this team after the Troy game. You know,
Troy may be better than we expect, and I like
the way Troy's played, but when you rush for three
point nine yards against Troy at home, running the ball
thirty one times, only gaining one hundred and twenty one yards,
that's a concern for me. Can the Georgia Tech defense
stop them? Well, you know they held Colorado to three
h five, but we know Colorado has their struggles. And
what do they say if you have two quarterbacks playing,
you don't have a legitimate starter. Well how about if
you have three? You know, so you know Colorado has
their issues. The Gardner Web game obviously Ross had mentioned
today it's Georgia Tech and the under not going to
make my card with not being one hundred percent positive.
Speaker 1: I'm came, okay, We've got a lot of questions coming
in on this Arkansas Old mis game. That game was
in our rundown anyway, So let's go to us here.
I see the main man, Jay Boff, thank you for
the shout out on my hair. I appreciate that. I,
you know, always try to look my best here on.
Speaker 3: The Sure it wasn't me he was talking about.
Speaker 1: Oh I'm sorry, I apologize there, Okay, but all right,
so Jay Buff he really likes. These are actually two
games that are on our rundown, guys, So let's uh,
we can hit a ball Arkansas Ole Miss Vandy South Carolina.
Couple games in the SEC. Yes, that SEC slate getting underway.
LSU Florida too. By the way, we'll be talking about
that game if you have a question, hit us up.
But Ross, let's go to Vandy South Carolina. I know
you had a lot to say about this game elsewhere
here this week on the way you talk YouTube channel.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean this game looks like a trap to me.
You know, you're looking at a number eleven ranked team
in South Carolina and they're just what a three and
a half point home favorite here or four and a
half whatever they are against an unranked Vanderbilt team who
only got one vote one vote in the AP Paul
this week, you know, and that I gotta scratch my
head because right now, to me, when I look at
these two teams, and I looked at film and both
of them, Vandy to me is the better team. I
mean South Carolina two and zero to cebe. Why do
I say that they won thirty eight ten last week
or off over so North Carolina State? But guess what.
They scored three touchdowns by way of a punt return,
a black punt, and a fumble return. They only compiled
two hundred and fifty three yards of total offense against
an FCS opponent. And the week before they won against
Virginia Tech twenty four to eleven. We now know that
Virginia Tech is not a very good team, and they
benefited from a punt return touchdown in that game as well,
and still did very little offensively. I mean, they had
all this hype with Sellers at quarterback and they haven't
shown me squat offensively in the first two games. You
look at Vanderbilt one last week forty four to twenty.
They had a huge total yards advantage of four ninety
to two forty eight against Virginia Tech. A common opponent,
same play team that South Carolina based on a neutral field.
Vanderbilt went to Virginia Tech on the road and that
game wasn't even as close as the final score may indicate.
That's how much Vanderbilt dominated that game. And look, here's
the thing. They've lost sixteen straight versus South Carolina over
the last sixteen meetings. You think that's not big time
revenge because this is to me a much improved program.
I like Diego Pavia at quarterback. Is he an NFL
ready quarterback? Not even close. He may make it in
the Canadian Football League, but he's not an NFL type
of talent. However, he's a winner. Okay, he's a winner.
He knows how to get things done at the proper time.
And college football, away underdogs a four and a half
or less like Vanderbilt that are coming off in a
way underdog upset win in which they scored forty one
points or more and they're facing a team like South
Carolina who's coming off a win resulted in those away
underdogs going nine and oh against the spreads is two
thousand and three. Not only that, Ralph, those underdogs not
only covered all nine, they won eight and those nine
games straight up. You gave me the Vanderbilt Commodores. Guys.
Speaker 1: Oh wow, Ross, He's got a lot to say. I
agree with you, Ross. I don't know if Diego Pavia
is a future Winnipeg Blue bomber or not, but I
will take it a step further what you had to
say about South Carolina. Right now, guys, there are three
teams the AP Top twenty five Pold. I know there
was a lot of controversy about the AP Top twenty
five pole during the week on social media. There are
three teams that I think are wildly overrated. We can
all write this down right now and you can come back.
If I'm wrong, you can make fun of me in
the comment section, or if you're I'm right, then you
can all tell me how great I am. South Carolina,
Iowa State, Illinois all overrated. In my opinion, I don't
think any of those three teams end up in the
top twenty five when the regular season is over. So
I am with you, Ross. I think Vandy is live
to go to Columbia here and pull the outright up
set Ralph. Do we make it three for three.
Speaker 3: Beating Kansas State and beating beating Iowa is enough for
me to get him in there. So in that case,
I totally agree with the other two. And you know,
it's not just the AP that's a joke. And that's
why you can never look at ranked teams early in
the season, because all they're doing is basing on what
happened last year. And if they win, they move up.
They lose, they moved down. You know, I remember the
you know when the UPI used to be big. That
was the coach's poll. I remember listening to Urban Meyer
talk all the time and said, I don't even fill
out my ballot. I don't even see my ballot. I
give it to an assistant, he fills it in, he
sends it in for me.
Speaker 2: So do not put.
Speaker 3: Stock in those. They are a joke. You know, there's
no reason for me to say anything. Guys. I agree
with Vanderbilt. The way they've played, they should be there.
I see South Carolina and not being there. I think
Vanderbilt is the play. But I do like this, especially
in the SEC, we see a team like Vanderbilt who
scored forty five against SO Charleston Southern and forty two
against votech When you're scoring a lot of points against
weak non conference foes, and then you play your first
conference opponent, your game plan changes a ton. And even
with that, Vandergilt ran the ball sixty eight times in
two games, only passed the ball forty eight. They're gonna
run the ball. South Carolina is gonna run the ball.
They've ran for seventy three times and only passed for
thirty nine their first two games. I'm gonna go first
half under here again. Guys. I know it sounds like
a broken record, but agree with the Vanderbilt side first
half under as well.
Speaker 1: Okay, there we go. Let's stick in the SEC because, guys,
the questions are rolling in in the chat. Jacob Hefner
would like to know what's up with the line movement
in Ole Miss, Arkansas. I was bummed to get the
worst of the number, laying it with Ole Miss. Ross
your thoughts on this one. My initial thought was maybe
to look at an over Arkansas. They put up some
big numbers in the first two games. I believe their
top five and yards per play, points per game, yards
per game, but look at who they play. It's not
exactly a murders a rogue. A murder's role of two
first two opponents, and then ole Miss has a potential
injury issue at quarterback. So interesting game here in the SEC.
Another one, Yeah, it's a.
Speaker 2: Game that I looked at up and down and couldn't
come up with a decisive decision either way as far
as that move goes on the line move, I think
they're oll Miss, and I'd be interested in hearing what
you guys have to say. I think they're a tad
bit overrated. I really do. They barely got by Kentucky
last week on the road in Kentucky's not a very
good team. I know Kentucky beat him last year, but
again they struggled to win that game. And I just
don't have a strong opinion here to offer the viewer
in his question, maybe Ralph or Brian does.
Speaker 1: Ralph lines down to seven comment or asked about the
question there, or about something asked about a line movement?
Any angle for you here on this one? It is
I would concur that ole Miss a little overrated. Lane
Kiffin had to apologize to the Betterans last week after
the game when he gave up at lake field goal
not to cover the spread, and.
Speaker 3: Again they only rushed for four point six yards per carry.
That's not a lane kiffing team. They usually press that
pace early in the season and do that. I do
want to comment, Brian. I didn't hear the name of
the person who left the note, but my advice to
you is this. If you like a game and that
game has moved two or three points, just don't bet it.
It's okay, don't. The worst thing to say is, oh
my god, I took the worst of this line. There's
reasons you don't bet games, and that's one of them
is because of a line move. So don't fall in
the trap. You have to bet that game if you
got the worst of it. If it doesn't come back,
let it go and look cow what you save at
the end of the year. Right down every rin, right
down every loss, and remember, for every dollar you save,
you're saving an extra ten percent use. I'm gonna say
that I actually think Arkansas's offense can move the ball here.
I think they will be able to run against an
old misdefense. So if I again no real lean on
the game here, I like Arkansas team total, so if anything,
it's a very light lean for me. But obviously if
I like the Arkansas team total, that means I think
they're gonna get thirty points, so that means they're likely
going to cover this game. So by default it puts
me on the Arkansas Lean side.
Speaker 1: Ralph with some very sage advice there, guys, about when
you miss the best of a number. Speaking of sage advice,
the place to go, of course is wagertalk dot com.
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Speaker 1: It is I will have a five percent play in
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see the one about Troy and Memphis. That'll be up next.
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let's talk about this game here. Adam wants to know
about Memphis and Troy. You mentioned Clemson earlier. Clemson played
Troy last week. Troy was beating Clemson sixteen to nothing,
and Ross they were probably feeling pretty good about themselves,
worn't They doubted Troy. But they of course lost twenty
seven to sixteen. So Adam's question is do we like
Memphis to dominate Troy after that emotional roller coaster last week?
Or was Troy just getting going?
Speaker 2: You know, Troy might be just that good for a
Sun Belt team and Memphis was a favorite trendy pick,
I should say for a lot of people that come
out of a group of five, and they still may.
But this looks like a tricky one to me, guys.
You know, I think Troy, if you look at how
they played defensively against Clemson last week, they just wore
down because Clemson had more quality depth in that game.
And I think a lot of people are jumping aboard
the Troy bandwagon this week, and that line moved from
six to three and a half. Again, that might be
some sharp money because it came in early, or it
might be an overreaction to what we saw in Week one.
But this game is not gonna get any of my money.
Brian and I like to give Adam a definitive answer,
but I just think there's more value to be found
on the college Football Board on Saturday.
Speaker 1: Yeah, if you like Troy. Unfortunately you did miss the
best of the number there. Memphis Ralph very interesting. The
final score says they dominated their FCS supponed Chaddan Nouga
last week forty five percent. They did have a pick
six though in that game. I always think that's important
to note Ross earlier in talking about that South Carolina first,
we talked about all their not offensive scores. So what
do we think is Troy for real or is this
a tough spot? You know, you're up on a team
like Clemson sixteen nothing, you think it's gonna be one
of the big defining wins in program history, and then
you get kind of boat raced to the second half.
What do you have left emotionally in the tank? Because Memphis,
as Ross bentioned, is one of the legit contenders to
nab that G five playoff spot, Ben.
Speaker 3: And Brian, you mentioned the pick six More importantly, they
went to Georgia State as that solid favorite. They only
had a four to oh one to three eighty nine
yard edge. They were only a plus twelve yards overall,
So I mean that's a very misleading final. They allowed
three hundred and forty yards passing. Troy is a team
that I really like this year. Why because we have
second year head coach Gerard Parker. Think about Troy last year.
They started the season one and eight. What do they do?
They beat Coastal Carolina, they got to Georgia Southern, they win,
They lose at UL not a bad loss. Then they
beat Southern Miss. Now you have a team in their
second year as a head coach. I think it's easy
to rally in your second year, a coach that won
four of the last five, four of the three of
the last four games after starting one, coming off and
winning the opener, and then playing that well against Clemson Today,
I am sold on Troy, at least for the next
couple of weeks. We'll see what happens.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 1: There you go Memphis and Troy. Hopefully that helped you
there a little bit. We're gonna go back to our rundown.
We're gonna leave the chat for a little bit. Keep
those questions coming, guys. We are gonna be hitting LSU
in Florida, very big weekend at the SEC. But what
other games do you want to know about? There's a
just a random game. You have a question, you're watching
us right now live. Drop that question the chat. We
will get to it, but I want to get to
it very we talk about G five contenders for that
playoff spot Ross, I think you have to be talking
about the USF Bulls right now. We have beaten Boise
State and they have beaten Florida. Now they face Miami
of Florida. Needless to say, now, as impressive as the
non con has been here so far, for the Bulls
to get that playoffs up, they need to win the
America and that's you know, several months down the line.
But I've got a question for you here, true or false?
Does USF care more about winning this game or just
keeping it close? Because here's the thing. If they can
in fact win their conference down the line, and they
just simply keep this game close against Miami, then yeah,
it's gonna be impossible to keep them out of a
college football playoff come December. So I ask that to
you because they're getting a big number here, and if
they're down twenty late, I think they really care about
punching it in a touchdown and which would obviously get
them under the number here, because I think they want
the committee at the end of the season to look
back and say, Hey, USF only lost by such and
such to Miami, or am I crazy or am I
overthinket things?
Speaker 2: Yeah? No, you make good points, But I do think
that a team that knots off a nationally ranked team
at the time Boise State, and then another nationally ranked
team at flour is not going to just hope they're
keeping it close. You know, they really, I truly believe
they believe they could win this game and talk about
a group of five contender right now to get to
the playoffs. Whoever wins that American to me is going
to be the group of five contender. I mean, that's
a better conference than people realize right now. Navy is
also pretty good, although they lacked the overall depth and
quality depth and defense as some of the top contenders
in that conference.
Speaker 3: Do.
Speaker 2: But here's what scares me, Brian. Miami of Florida. They're
not going to catch them by surprise. Okay, they're not
gonna be Miami of Florida is not going to take
this game lightly. Miami of Florida is not gonna waste
a win over Notre Dame and their season opener. They're
a very talented team. And it also strikes me that
this game opened at fifteen and a half and very quickly,
very quick, right after it opened, shout up to seventeen.
Sharp money to me if I'm not going to use
this game. I do like the points you make, Brian,
but I truly believed it. South Florida wants to win
this game and believes they could. Now. Wanting to do
so and doing it are two different things. I have
a slight, slight lean rough toward Miami here because of
that early line move. It just, you know, you would
think that a double digit underdog that just pulled off
two upsets in a row against quality competition, and people
would jump all over that, but that wasn't the case.
And to me, that move is sharp money. That's not
public money. So I think Miami, there's no way that
Miami wants to contend for a national championship and lose
to their little brother in South Florida. And that's basically
how they look at things. So it's tough call. But
if you put the proverbial gun to my head, I
would lay the points with Miami.
Speaker 1: Okay, what do you say, Ralph, it's the third straight
week facing a right deponent for USF.
Speaker 3: Well, you know, Brian I was on USF against Boise.
We talked about Byron Brown, how good he was before
he got injured, and he came back and he looks
to be the same player. But when you asked your
question about do they want to keep it close, there's
no other game on the board more than this one
that sets it up for a backdoor cover. USF has
South Carolina State at home on deck, followed by Charlotte
at deck. Miami has big brother Florida at home, and
then they go to Florida State, the other in state rival.
So you're talking about them, they how many times do
you play four in state teams in a row? But
Thune Cookman, USF, Florida and Florida State. So to me,
the situation clearly screams USF with no one on deck.
I could see Florida arresting some starters before the host
Florida next week if they're up by that aforementioned you
said three or four touchdowns into the fourth quarter. I
actually was close to using USF. But again, trends are
either to help you make a bet or to keep
you off a bet, and these trends are keeping me
off USF. So, guys, I'm going to put you on
the spot real quick. I need a real quick answer
from you. How many times since two thousand and eight?
So we're talking what sixteen years has a college football
team won back to back games as a dog? It
sounds easy, the first two games of the season as
a dog. I was shocked how low this number was.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would have thought that it would be not
real low. But now that you mentioned that, ralphin Gate,
I love to play poker with you because you just
showed your.
Speaker 3: Head from cranaour teams. Fourteen teams since two thousand and
eight have won back to back games as a dog.
Next week they've gone six and seven. But then I
went and did this, how many teams weren't away dog
and one as a dog of three or more and
then one as a dog of fourteen or more like
USF did so back to back wins anytime in the season,
not through the first weeks of the season. The next game,
it's only happened thirty times since twenty eighteen. The next week,
they are nine and twenty one against the spread. That
is thirty percent. And if they're a double digit dog,
they are two and fourteen against the spread. So some
serious numbers for teams playing that third straight underdog role.
And while I like USF and I would still give
out USF as an opinion, this is a situation where
those trends to me that make total sense are keeping
me off this game.
Speaker 1: Okay, So there you go, Battle of Florida. There a
little bit for both sides. And remember ross W. I
think we've mentioned this Ralph too. The first time we
talked about Miami, I believe was what we were breaking on
that Miami order of name game through US it's late
and the game is close, Mario christoball will often do
the wrong thing, so we also college that. Certainly. All right, guys,
there there's some weekday college football action. Of course, this
week we've got a question from Colin Gregory on a
frill Friday night lights here coach Prime and Colorado they're going, Uh,
looks like they've made a quarterback decision there. They're going
with the guy who was the original third stringer against
the Houston team that I bet over six and a
half wins to go before the start of the season.
I thought this Houston team was going to be improved
in a wide open big twelve. I expect Houston to
win this game at home Friday night.
Speaker 2: Ross and Mike crazy, No, you're not crazy. And again,
this is a tough call for me. I mean, this
game open with Houston minus four, quickly moved to six,
and now there's been a lot of buyback, Brian, I
mean down to four and a half pretty much across
the board in this game. And yeah, I mean I
looked at this line and it jumped right out at me.
And I also jumped right out at me. Was the
early move because initially my initial thought was Colorado might
be a nice dog in this spot. But with the
quarterback change, and it's not like Colorado has looked very
impressive to start the season. This isn't the Colorado team
from a season ago. They're talented, but not quite as
talented as that team. And yeah, I would have a
lean toward Houston in this spot and agree with you, Brian.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's Ryan stabbed getting the start for Colorado. We
mentioned earlier when we were talking about the Colorado Georgia
Tech game that opened the season, Ross Colorado could not
beat Georgia Tech despite that longside a turnover March. That
doesn't speak all of up. Now, it's a different quarterback
getting the start here. But Houston Ralph quite even last
year when this team struggled. Houston has a very solid defense,
and I like the coaching staff. I don't know, I
think this is a team on the ascent in the
Big Twelfth.
Speaker 3: I mean, second year head coach and Willie Fritz, you know,
coming back and we've seen the Houston improvement and I'm
a big fan of that. You know, second and third
year head coaches that continue to show the improvement with
their squads. I'm gonna make it simple. You know, this
Colorado team doesn't rely on the pass because they don't
have a quarterback like Shador. But let me let me
the last two road games, the first two road games
of last year with Shador at Nebraska, they threw for
forty times, ran sixteen. Against Colorado State, they threw the
ball forty nine times and ran nineteen. Now when you
look against Georgia Tech, they ran the ball more than
they passed. So this is the Colorado team whose offense
is going to be completely different this year, is not
going to be as dynamic, is going to run fewer plays,
is going to have a massive run the pass ratio
or at least a run heavy pass ratio completely compared
last year. And I do like the Houston defense as well.
Houston and the under for me.
Speaker 1: Okay, looking at the chat here, Lucky Larry asked about
the Notre Dame Texas AmAm. Yes, we did talk about
this one earlier, Larry. Maybe if we've got some time
at the end, we'll come back to it some quick thoughts.
Nice time for me to remind you guys, I'll click
that subscribe button down below. That way you'll be instantly
notified when the show goes live each and every Thursday
at one pm Eastern. But if we do some time, Larry,
we can just kind of do a cliff notes version
of our thoughts on Notre Dame in Texas, A and M.
But I want to get to another game here that
godfather Jay six asked about. This is Bama and Wisconsin.
All Look, Bam, I'll tell you what. Ross Luke Fickle,
he needs to get in gear otherwise he may be
selling his home in Madison because this Wisconsin offense looks
absolutely atrocious now. Caylin de boor everyone was ready to
ride this guy out of town in Tuscaloos. Incluing thatman
who I don't know if you guys saw this clip
on social media, she said if she won the Alabama
State lottery, the first thing she would do with her
money was pay the buyout for Kaylen de Borr and
run them out of town. I think that is an
interesting use of winning the lottery. But I digress. Alabama
killed l A. Monroe last week. What do we think
Alabama does here against Wisconsin? They killed him last year.
I remember watching that game. Maybe I don't know. We
liked Alabama Ross at the start of the season. Then
they go out and they lose to Florida State, who
might actually be a very very good team. So kind
of an interesting evaluation of the Crimson tide right now
where they're at.
Speaker 2: This guy's got to be related to me with you
know a handle named Godfather. You know it's again. I
thought that Alabama woman's gonna take all the money if
she won the lottery and hire Ralph Michaels as a
head coach at Alabama because anyway, on a serious note,
I think Wisconsin's a very deceiving two and oh they
don't don't have a lot coming back from a season
to go. Luke Fickle, to me, has not been getting
the job done at Wisconsin. It's tough to get the
nil money there. And I think Alabama everybody threw them
under the bus after that season opening loss to Florida State.
But maybe Florida State is just that damn good Ralph.
You know my lean here is definitely the way that
Crimson tied. I think they covered a spread by the
half and then win going away. I just don't think
Wisconsin has that type of offense they never had under
Luke Fickle where they're built to come from behind. So
I think it could snowball out in them very easily
if they fall behind quickly, and I think that's what
will occur. And I like Alabama to win big here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Wisconsin defense is that okay, Ralph. Obviously they've
played some weak teams. My heavy of Ohio. By God,
turn your eyes away when they're on offense. Everybody but
the offense. Again, Wisconsin has not been up to stuff,
and I concur with Ross the boss there, that if
Wisconsin falls behind, I don't know how they come from beyond.
So you've been giving out a few first half thoughts
so far in the program. Rough is this a situation
where you would lay it with Alabama in the first
half or how would you approach this game?
Speaker 3: We remember they were the run of the century. I
mean a couple of years ago. What did they go
fourteen and one on first halves? Again, we had new
head coach Klin de Boor and you know you might think, well,
Bama has George on deck, but again there's a bye
week on deck, so it's not quite the same situation.
I think Bama uses this as a as a prep
game to show Georgia. I think they're going to try
running the ball. I am not impressed. Again, I agree
with what Ross said and what you said Brian, that
the Florida State lost maybe a fine loss in a
couple more weeks. I mean they were only out gained
three eighty two to three forty one. Yes, they've lost
by fourteen the way the game played out, but you
can't overreact to those Week one games. I think I
think Alabama is going to try to run the ball.
I don't think they need to pass it much. I
think they need to work on that. I think that
Wisconsin's rush to he has always been decent. I don't
know how they're gonna fare here again. Holding Miami to
one point five in Middle Tennessee to one point two
doesn't show you anything. But I actually like if I
had to play here, I would play this actually full
game total, because if they have some trick plays, Wisconsin
might try to use them early. You know, Fickle came
out and said, we have this Alabama game circled all
summer long. Who the heck circle is a road game
against a non conference fall I've never heard that of
a Big ten coach to even waste his time saying that.
So maybe he does have some sort of scheme that
he's going to try some fluke things early and they didn't. Maybe,
and again maybe since they won seventeen nothing in forty
two to ten, maybe we just think Wisconsin's offense is
bad because he's hidden the playbook until he starts to
play Alabama. That's a possibility. That's something we don't know.
I think the points are too high for Alabama on
the road in the situation. But again, I don't want
to be on Wisconsin either, But call me a pass
on this one.
Speaker 1: Okay, something else we need to know here. You know,
we talked about the Wisconsin offensive. Billy Edwards junior doesn't
sound like he's gonna play in this game, so the
task got a little bit tougher for Luke Fickele and
the team.
Speaker 2: Just at I mean again, it was an oversight by Roof,
But Alabama's at home in this game, Roof, not on
the road.
Speaker 3: My apologies. That's called Ross was making fun of my
age before the show started. Guys in the Green.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I thought you were gonna tell me game sched.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Good, good catch there, Ross all right there. The
SEC seems to be the theme here. We talked about
a lot of Alabama. Obviously, whether or not they can
still be a force in this conference remains to be seen.
But we're gonna learn something here in the SEC Saturday night,
when this is the final game on our scheduled rundown guys.
Of course, we always are going to talk about the
big games each and every week here on the Blitz.
If there's a game that we have not mentioned that
you want our opinion on, the only have a few
minutes left to get those questions in, guys, to do
that right now if you're watching live in the chat.
But we're gonna go to LSU and Florida Ross is
there's some that it's interesting. There's ways to look at
there's different ways to look at this right Florida bad
loss to South Florida last week. Look, you should never
spit on opponent, obviously. The fact that you would do
it a couple of days after it made national headlines
in an NFL game was really stupid, I thought. And
then it cost your game. It cost you the game,
Florida and Ross. You know I'm gonna do it again
here the seat. It's getting a little hot in Gamesville
for down there because if Florida loses here and then,
as Ralph mentions mentioned earlier, they've got Miami Florida Billy Napier,
I have to get that. Indeed, dot Com resume open again.
Speaker 3: Okay, is there anyway, Napier survives to October the first
at LSU at Miami of Florida home against Texas at
Texas A.
Speaker 1: And M No, that is not an easy schedule.
Speaker 3: No chance he is around after October first.
Speaker 1: Well, if he pulls an upset here, Ross, I guess
you know he could have some job security for the
time being. What do you think, because to me, when
I look at a team like Florida, who no one
was expecting to lose last week to us, they were
double digit favorite. Obviously, Look, we respect usf on the program,
we talked about that earlier, but people thought Florida was
gonna win that game. To me, my opinion is always
there's some value now in the underdog. That's what the
market seems. The market thinks this number opened a little
bit too high and is impressive as LSU looked against
Clemson and the opener, Boy, did they just sleepwalk their
way to a win over Louisiana Tech last week?
Speaker 3: Hey, Ross, let me jump in here and I'm gonna
give people an angle, and then I'm gonna have them
think of the angle after you get done out here
at the angle with them. So, Brian, this is sort
of something without you telling me this. What's the ATS
record for teams after they lost as a home favor
of fourteen or more. I'll get you those ATS numbers
after Ross Finn says his breakdown.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I could almost assure you that Ralph is
gonna come up with an angle that supports the underdog,
because I do the same type of technical handicapping, and
I don't mean any disrespect by any means with Ralph
because but we think alike in that regard. So I
think I think Ralph's gonna mention that there's an angle
that supports the underdog in this situation coming off a
favorite loss of minus fourteen and a half or greater.
Here's the thing with me. LSU was listless last week, Brian.
You mentioned that, I just think that I got to
give him a pass. They come off they have big
win against Thompson on the road, and you know you've
got Louisiana Tech in between the game against Clemson and
this showdown with flour who at the time was a
nationally ranked team when they faced him when they played
last week. So to me, again, I'm gonna stick with
my guns here. I think that LSU is the best
team in the country. I said that before the season started.
I gave him out on college football betting preview show
with Teddy. I gave him out at plus fourteen hundred
to win the national title. Now they're around plus eight
hundred or so. Is a single digit favorite. Now, if
they were in the double digits of a touchdown or more,
that's one thing. But as a single digit favorite in
this situation and billying Napier, he's on the hot seat.
It doesn't look like the players really have his back.
The way they played last week against South Florida. I'm
going to lay the points here with LSU. I know
the early money came in on Florida, but I just
think LSU is that much better, and I think the
seat's gonna get scalding hot after this week.
Speaker 1: Ralph, all right, Ralph, to give us the trend here.
I know you tease the trend. You heard what Ross
had to say. He's sticking with the buy you Bengals,
LS you Coast given sport Home. Give us the try.
Speaker 3: Well, Ross, this isn't a wild number, but again, I
want to share it just so people know I had
the exact same thought as you Ross. I was expecting
it to be a fairly at least a profitable number.
In the last one hundred and seven games where a
team lost as a favorite of fourteen or more, they
are fifty one and fifty six forty eight percent against
the spread the next game. So again it's to me,
it's as important to know a trend that you had
a thought in your mind and you know now that
thought should be thrown out because it's not relative either way.
Speaker 2: You know, with.
Speaker 3: Lagaway, I don't know if there's legitimate reports that he's
banged up or just the rumor mills, but that's an
issue here. This is another game where I love playing
these conference games weeks two or three like this when
you're matching up now. LSU did play some competition, and
yes they were on the road at Death Valley, but
they only had a you know, they only had a
three fifty. Were only had three hundred and fifty four
yards and they only rushed for three point five yards
per carry. The Florida defense against USF they did allow
three hundred and ninety three hundred ninety one yards and
they have been sacked against each of their first two opponents,
which getting a sacked against Long Island and only rushing
for five point three is pretty scary. So it's going
to be under for me again in this one. And
something I want to mention and I am remiss for
not having this data for you. Big ats difference in
LSU Death Valley playing a night game and a day
game with this being seven thirty PM. So next time
LSU has a night game, I'll make sure I have
those numbers for you here on the blitz. But again,
it's Death Valley at night games and Penn State whiteouts
are my two highest rated home home home field edges
at all of college football.
Speaker 1: Yeah, something tells me this will not be the last
night game for LSU. LSU home game this year, and
I'm with you. I think there are a strong contender
right now with the question marks we're seeing a quarterback
with Georgia in Texas and Alabama, I think LSU is
very live to win the SEC. We have one question
coming in on another Friday night game from Godfather Jays
Sticks chimed in again. He wants our thoughts on Kansas City, Arizona.
You will get to that in just a moment. I'm
gonna just take my opportunities since this is the Friday game.
To promote what I've got going on again one more
time WP dot buzz. Last, people, we've got that weekend
for your pass. So if you want to get down,
you get Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and remember we're throwing in Monday.
Ross mentioned it's a double header this week on Monday.
Remember you got Bucks Texans Raiders hosting the Chargers. I
will have a five percent NFL play on Sunday. We
will have at least three college plays on Saturday. I
know we're gonna we're locked and loaded the three NFL
plays on Sunday, and I might be playing both Monday
night football games guys in the NFL. So look, forty
nine dollars, you can't beat that. I'll let these guys
after they're done. Given their breakdowns on Kansas State Arizona,
reminds you what they've got cooking this weekend as well. Ross,
I'll give you. I'll throw it to you now. The
floor is yours, Kansas State, Arizona, and remind the people
what you have going on this weekend at wager talk
dot com.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I can't pull the trigger on Kansas State.
I thought that they would wake up last week against
Army at home. Nothing embarrassing about losing by three on
a road against a nationally ranked opponent in Iowa State.
But then the following week you come back, Yes, you're
weary from travel, but you're playing an FCS opponent in
North Dakota and you need a last minute touchdown to
win at home thirty eight to thirty five. Then you
play Army is a seventeen point favorite. Army team that
lost to Ralph s Almamater Tarlton State in their season opener.
Maybe it wasn't Ralph Alma matter, he'll let us know,
I'm sure, but you know they laid an egg and
they lose the game outright. Not only not covered, but
they lose the game outright. Arizona's got a little bit
of a momentum after a terrible year last year. They
win their first two games, Yes, albeit against less than
imposing opposition. But I think that Arizona State, with the
momentum and playing at home against the Kansas State team
that right now, I'm not sure what you're gonna get from.
You know, I can't pull the trigger line. Kansas State
probably a game I'm going to pass on but if
you again, the proverbial gun to my head, pick would
be on Arizona in this one.
Speaker 1: Ralph, those who have followed me and have been on
board with me for any length of time before, now
that I am the ultimate bilog. I love to buy
low on teams, and this would appear to be a
by low spot on Kansas State. But I'm with Ross.
I don't think I could trust this team. My power
ratings say no. I mean they're they're back up to
a road favorite here. I don't want to play them.
I know they hammered Arizona last year in Manhattan the
Little Apple, but this game is out in Tucson late Friday.
Start your thoughts on this one.
Speaker 3: My biggest power rating difference, and that's just because I
haven't lowered Kansas State enough, you know, I mean CAN'TA
State is by far my biggest dropper in the power
ratings this year, so I cannot back them. I understand
you're by you know, by high by low situations. But
it's one thing to buy low because the team lost
but played okay. It's another to get out gained by
eighty six yards against Army and only rush for seventy
four yards against an Army team that has a very
small D line against an opponent I just don't like
the Arizona State side either, so no opinion for me.
I can't get I can't get to either side on this.
And just a reminder again, we can warrior forty nine
bucks a five percent NFL playloaded for Sunday now, all
of Saturday, all of Sunday and Monday football included a
great offer.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Arizona's two and all against the number so far
this year. Guys, here is a stat this you know
I'd like you, guys. I always pour over these box
scores each and every week. This was the most astounding
stats from last week in college football. Okay, Kansas State
second half time of possession against Army three minutes. They
had the ball for three minutes and a half. Tough
to win when you only have the ball for three minutes, Rossy.
Speaker 2: I just wonder if Avery Johnson's father and his brother
got in a fight after that game. Man, Yeah, to
plan that way, holy cow, especially when the brother didn't
get on the field for only three months minutes. You know, unusual, Brian,
You know when you play Army to move time possession,
But you know, I took the Army and it's not
like they wrecked up a ton of offense. They were
less than three hundred yards on the game themselves. So yeah,
I mean, what's going on Brough's.
Speaker 3: You know, It's one thing to say Kansas had three
minutes of possession. It's another to be a Kansas State
team and allow Army to run eighty two plays against you.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean yeah. I love to Ross's point.
Armies a team, they're gonna run that play clock down.
I mean, their goal is to eat that time of it.
But even by an Army opponent standard guys, three minutes
at time of possession is quite ridiculous. We've been talking
about this weekend Warrior pass several times. I should have
mentioned when I talked about the five percent play that
I've got this weekend six and two last week for
me in football three and one college, three and one NFL,
we had sixty six percent last year September guys in
NFL and college combined. So no surprise that I'm off
to a seventy five percent to start this year. Mister Benjamin,
I believe you had something to say.
Speaker 2: No, I was just giving you a thumbs up again. Yeah,
I didn't mention it again to review four picks in
college football on Saturday, including the five percent best bet.
You know, tough week for me in the NFL, folks,
I'm going to bounce back. I mean, look, I had
the over end of Thursday night game the Dallas and
in Philadelphia game, you know, forty one at the half
and then's up forty four. I had Denver minus eight
and a half. They win by eight, and they pass
up a field goal opportunity with less than a minute
to go on fourth down. You know, field goal opportunity
would have been from fifty something yards rough, but you
know you're in field goal range when you enter the
stadium in Denver, you know. So a couple of tough
losses there, and then the Monday night game I lost
with Chicago. So I tell it the way it is.
You know, I brag about my college football record, but
you know in the NFL didn't go as well. And
we're transparing your folks. You know we're not making up stores.
Speaker 3: Hey, Ross, if James Franklin was at Denver coaching, they
would have tried that field goal.
Speaker 1: Oh there's no you tried a.
Speaker 3: Fake field goal.
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, all right, just real real quick here, if
you guys, did you guys want to reiterate your thoughts
on Notre Dame Texas Adam, because we had a follow
up on that. Somebody suited in the show.
Speaker 3: On the first haalfity, But I think there was some
good information. Just rewind back and go view it again.
I mean it's only a couple of minutes.
Speaker 2: Till yeah, yeah, yeah, Notre Dame coming off a loss
with Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame coming off of bye week,
you know again, Notre Dame coming up, Notre Dame beating
Texas A and M on the road last year. I
not there's a revenge factor, but there's something to be
said about that Notre Dame defense, which is very experienced.
In how Texas A and M and check last year.
I don't see why the same thing doesn't occur here.
Speaker 1: All right, Colin Gregory, thank you for your kind words.
I concur it was a great show indeed, And if
you thought it was a great show, it could be
like Colin and just tell us it was a great show,
or you could smash that like button there right below.
We always appreciate your support here on the Blitz. We
are live, of course, every Thursday one pm Eastern on
the Wage Talk you two channel, immediately following Andy Laying
and Wager Talk Today, the show that I know we
all appear on regularly as well. All right, that is
going to do it. Remember to get your wee Weekend
Warrior Pass. We were all locked and loaded for a
big weekend of football, Ross, Ralph and myself. Remember it's
gonna be three of us each and every week here
on the Blitz. We like each other so much we
decided to be your permanent team. So on that note, guys,
until next time, let's cash some tickets