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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Blitz. Free plays for Week three of

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college football coming right up. If you're watching us live

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here on the wage Talk YouTube channel, start firing off

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those questions right now. Any game you want to talk about,

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we will be happy to oblige. Of course, we're talking

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all the big games for sure. That means Georgia, Tennessee,

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Order Dave, Texas, A and m Uss, Miami, Florida, LSU Arkansas,

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Ole Miss and Vanderbilt South Carolina. Here to help me

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break things down. Ralph Michaels and Ross Benjamin In great

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news for all of you, the three of us have

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decided we like each other so much that we are

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now the permanent team here on the Blitz each and

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every week. So it's me, Ralph and Ross every Thursday,

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live here at one pm on the wage Talk YouTube channel. Ross,

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I'm gonna go to you first here for Georgia and Tennessee.

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This is a situation where we have seen significant line movement.

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We did see significant line movement early in the week.

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Number drop from Georgia minus six down to Georgia minus

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three and a half. I will tell everyone whether this

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is true or not remains to be seen. However, a

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little birdie has indicated to me that we are going

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to see some sharp money come in on Georgia in

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the next twenty four hours or so. Ross, how are

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you looking at this all important SEC match up?

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Speaker 2: Well, I mean, look, whether this sharp money comes in

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on Georgia or not. The line moved from six to

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three and a half, right, and I would say that

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that's not public money. So we might be split here

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and the little birdie in the room that you heard from,

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I respect your opinion on that. But look, here's the thing.

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Tennessee is twenty four and one in their last twenty

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five in Knoxville, and that includes in twenty games against

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FBS opponents going nineteen and or twenty one games against

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FBS opponents going twenty and one, in fourteen and seven

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against the spread. Ironically enough, they're only loss in that

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sequence came to Georgia. I just think this is a

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Tennessee team that's built to make a national title run

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this year. I mean, they can move the ball offensively.

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I like their transfer quarterback. Their defense we know is

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experienced and very good. Georgia to me, I mean especially

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last week when I look at their game last week

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against Austin P they win twenty eight to six. I

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think they could be had, especially early in the season.

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So I'm gonna have a small lean toward Tennessee here.

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And if Brian's right, maybe you're better off waiting near

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game time where you in order over the next twenty

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four hours, like he said, and you'll get a better number.

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But even at three and a half, I like Tennessee

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in the spot.

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Speaker 1: Okay, I was doing this Ross because of your anything

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what to do with your breakdown, It was because Georgia

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I think could be accused the last two weeks of

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perhaps they'll sleep walking through their first two oponents. They

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knew they weren't going to be tested by Marshall and

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Austin P. But Tennessee, certainly Ralph a different story in

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a big, bad SEC opponent. Nobody is more keenly aware

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of the trends than you, Georgia. Let's talk about the

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rivalry here. Ross mentioned a previous Georgia victory here in Knoxville. Well,

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last eight meetings overall, Georgia eight, No, straight up. They've

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won those eight games by an average twenty five points

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per game. Now, some of those were when the Tennessee

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program was down, but George's covered the spread in seven

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of those eight wins as well. What do you think

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does that history play into your handicap here at all

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for Saturday?

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Speaker 3: But you know, Brian, let me go back to your

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little your little statement. Not only is Georgia zero to

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two maybe sleepwalking this year, Georgia is one and eleven

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against the spread their last twelve games as a favorite period,

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It doesn't matter who they play as a favorite, they're

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one and eleven. You know what that is? That is

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eight percent. Now, this was an interesting trend, and I said,

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how much does this really apply because we're only two

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games into the new season. But I looked at early

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in the season, this has been successful. Home dogs that

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have won at least seven straight home games obviously you

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can carry over a season are sixty six and forty

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one sixty two percent against the spread, and conference home

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dogs in that role are sixty four percent. Georgia, by

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the way, as an away favorite, only three and eight

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ats their last eleven. When I looked at top twenty

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home dogs, they've gone twenty three and eighteen fifty six

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percent against the spread. If they're in the first two

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months of the season, they've gone sixty percent against the spread,

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and if they're a conference home dog, they are seventy

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three percent against the spread. So that is two top

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twenty teams, a conference home dog seventy three percent ats.

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And if you are one that bets money on the

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bets the money line and you like Tennessee, listen to

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the stat and think about it for a minute, conference

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away dog, they excuse me, in those eleven in those

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twenty two games, the straight up the dog is eleven

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and eleven straight up with an average line of plus

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five point eight. So that means if you bet those

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twenty two games, if you're plus five point eight, that

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translates to a minus minus two fifty money line. Eleven

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of those twenty two teams have won outright. I lean, Tennessee.

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I'm concerned George's offense. Even though they slept walked. You

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still just do better than averaging five point one yards

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per carrying against Marshall and against Austin Pay. I'm gonna

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side with Ross here and back the volunteers as well.

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Speaker 1: Okay, I'm gonna.

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Speaker 2: Say I'm seeing a four and a half at FanDuel

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as well, So it's three and a half across the

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board four and a half at FanDuel.

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Speaker 1: So okay, if you like Tennessee, that's the place to go,

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fan Duel, I think the line is going to Like

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I said, if you like Georgia right now, I think

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that you should bet them now because I think I

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think it's going to go to four and a half

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pretty much across the board soon. Something we need to

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point out to the top two point. The starting quarterbacks

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for Tennessee are out of this game, so that's something

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to watch in the Georgia offense, which Ralph mentioned has struggled,

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has kind of you know whatever the first week and

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they wake up and they take advantage of that. All right,

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next game on the list should be a good one.

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Saturday Night. It is text A and M and ordered

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game's opened this season against one another. Last year, I

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had the first half under in that game. That was

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a winner. I kind of like the over though this year. Ross,

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What do you think here? Before the season, I did

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a special edition of the Power five. I said, gave

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out some win totals. I said, bet A and M

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over eight and a half at plus one fifty if

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they win Saturday Night, I'm ding I think I'm dancing

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in the streets. So that win total, I think that's

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gonna be looking pretty good. But here's the problem. They're

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two and thirteen against the number under Elko, including oh

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and two this season and an underdog, so yeah.

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Speaker 2: I mean, and you look at Texas A and M.

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They've had struggles on the road the last few seasons.

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Notre Dame coming off that heartbreaking loss against Miami of Florida.

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They did have a bye week last week. Texas A

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and M. Although they're two and oh, I'm just they

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haven't wollwed me. When I watched them. They beat UTSA

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and they also beat help me out, guys, the other

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team Gate. Yeah, so I mean, it's not like they

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won by twenty two or twenty one points in each game,

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but they didn't come close to covering and the opposition

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moved the ball on them. And Notre Dame here keep

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this in mind. Under Marcus Freeman, they're five and oh

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straight up, and ATS coming off of bye during regular

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season action, six and oh straight up, and ATS coming

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off a loss in their last six under Marcus Freeman.

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So remember, Marcus Freeman got off to a terrible start

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at Notre Dame. Losing his first two games, and I

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think he's somewhere around thirty three and eight since then.

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And the Irish coming off a loss playing in their

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home opener, And unlike Texas A and M, who could

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really if they lose a game, they're still alive. You'd

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be hard pressed to make a case for Notre Dame

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if they start out zero to two here as having

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any kind of decent chance to make the college football playoffs.

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So I think the urgency lives with Notre Dame here,

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and I'm willing to lay at six and a half

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at home against the Aggies.

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Speaker 1: Oh all right, Ralph, I mentioned elko struggles at the

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old pay Wind. Marcus Freeman Ross referenced it. He's been

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quite good. He's been quite profitable back even though Notre

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Dame did drop that season opener as a road favorite

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down in Coral Gables. How are you looking at this game?

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Speaker 3: So it has A and M been tested, obviously not

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they haven't played one of the worst schedules in the country,

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but it's been pretty bad. And I found this very interesting.

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Speaker 1: Guys.

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Speaker 3: There's times that even when I run data that I'm

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completely shocked. I ran the query guys that says what

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happens in game three. If you were a home favorite

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of twenty one points or more and you won each

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of those games by at least double digits, and now

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you're an away dog, it hasn't happened very much. But

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those away dogs since twenty and sixteen are actually sixty

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two percent against the spread. So I was gonna say this.

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I think A and M is an overrated two and

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O team based on who they played. You know, yes,

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they have a dynamic offense with a couple of incredible

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wide receivers. You know, Carver has been amazing, Concepcion has

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been great. It really allows Marcel Reid to stretch the field.

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I do like Notre Dame's defense, though, yes, they allowed

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three hundred and twenty four yards, but remember this is

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three hundred and twenty four yards to a Miami team

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that was one of the top offensive teams, that had

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a quarterback that was a transfer from Georgia. They were

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on the road in that situation, So I don't think

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at the end of the year, I think that three

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hundred and twenty four yards that Notre Dame allowed is

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going to be an actual positive number versus right now

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into the break, it looks like a negative. I did

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look up two other things that I wanted to share

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with you. Teams off a ranked loss, So you are

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a ranked opponent and you lost, and now you have

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a buy on and you are off a buy those

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teams are only forty nine percent at home. So it doesn't,

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it doesn't. It doesn't. Not a positive, not a negative.

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But I still want to share that data with you.

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So if you have those type of thoughts, you know

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what the results are. But when that team is off

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a ranked loss game and they had a buy they

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are seventy percent to the under the last thirty six games,

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eleven overs and twenty five unders. And that's where I'm

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going to go here, Big Game, National TV. I like

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these teams having to feel each other out. I'm going

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to go under first half in this and it's actually

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one of my top three plays from the games we're

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going to talk about under first half, Notre Dame, Texas A.

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Speaker 1: And m Okay, there you go. Of course, guys, here

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each and every week in the let's we've got you

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covered with the biggest games on Saturday State. But we

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also believe no stone unturned if you're watching live you

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can ask us about any game you want to hear

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about it, and many are doing that right now in

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the chat. I'm gonna go to a question from Adam

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because he wants to know about Georgia Tech and Clemson.

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I'm going to this game right now, Ross because the

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line movement. It's a very similar story to what we

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talked about earlier. Just a few moments ago in the

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Georgia Tennessee game, the market decided this number was too

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high at the opening, and money came in on the dog.

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We know. Brent Key at Georgia Tech has been fantastic

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as an underdog. I believe they've covered six straight at

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home against ranked opponents. I'm gonna look that up in

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a minute after you're done breaking this down. Maybe Ralph

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also has that one handy, but Gia Tech it's been

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very live in the home underdog role against top teams.

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Under tea, what do you think Clems does? Not looked

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good at all the first two we need to go.

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Speaker 2: I mean, talk to me. Yeah, they had to come

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back from a sixteen to nothing deficit against Troy last

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week to win twenty seven to sixteen. They did have

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a strong second half. Maybe they can carry that momentum over.

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But you know, I was high on Georgia Tech to

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start the season, although they just went seven and six

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year ago. They were might pick to win the ACC

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at plus seven hundred and this certainly, if I'm thinking

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Georgia Tech's gonna win the ACC, they're real live for

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me right here, and you're looking at a Georgia Tech

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team that you know, look, they didn't even play with

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Haines King, their quarterback, who I think is the best

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quarterback in the ACC, went healthy, and I know I'm

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gonna get a lot of argument there. But having said that,

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he didn't even play last week, and they put up

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monster offensive numbers. They were very good in their season

244
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opening win against Colorado twenty seven to twenty. They were

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pretty much in control of that game from start to finish,

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although it was just a seven point difference. And Haines

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King again, if he's healthy this week, I like Georgia

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Tech even more. If he's not, I still like Georgia Tech.

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I think Georgia Tech wins this game outright. Clemson again

250
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losing the LSU at home seventeen to ten and listless

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last week, and now they go on the road for

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the first time. This is a huge game for Georgia Tech,

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and I think they'll be prepared and ready to get

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the cover here at home.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and Ross. Something else that the folks need to

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remember in case that they didn't watch that game or

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had forgotten about it. The Georgia Tech season opener against Colorado.

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Georgia Tech should have won that game by more because

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they turned them all over on their first three possessions.

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If they don't to turn the ball over three times

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and still win, that says something if you could, because

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usually if you turn the ball over three times, you're

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not winning a football game. Georgia Tech did against Coach

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Prime and coloradat there in the opener, Ralph, I have

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to have the trends right now in front of me

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under Key. Georgia Tech nine and five ats against ranked opponents.

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They are a perfect six for six as a conference

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dog of single digits that Miami last year's well, mister Key,

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and those trends continue here on Saturday's a new kickoff

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against Clemson.

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Speaker 3: If Haines King was one hundred percent healthy and he

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practiced this entire week, I would have been on Georgia Tech. Uh,

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he's been limited practice. They do expect them to play,

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but to me, I'm going to lay off this. I

275
00:14:35,360 --> 00:14:40,080
do probably have some uh some firestarter in a Clemson

276
00:14:40,159 --> 00:14:43,320
National Championship ticket that I bet. So yeah, no, no

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team has been uh uh again, losing d LSU is

278
00:14:47,559 --> 00:14:50,600
not a bad loss, but again, just just the vibes

279
00:14:50,679 --> 00:14:53,559
you get from this team after the Troy game. You know,

280
00:14:53,799 --> 00:14:55,720
Troy may be better than we expect, and I like

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00:14:55,799 --> 00:14:58,279
the way Troy's played, but when you rush for three

282
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point nine yards against Troy at home, running the ball

283
00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:03,200
thirty one times, only gaining one hundred and twenty one yards,

284
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that's a concern for me. Can the Georgia Tech defense

285
00:15:07,159 --> 00:15:09,559
stop them? Well, you know they held Colorado to three

286
00:15:09,679 --> 00:15:12,159
h five, but we know Colorado has their struggles. And

287
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what do they say if you have two quarterbacks playing,

288
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you don't have a legitimate starter. Well how about if

289
00:15:18,320 --> 00:15:21,240
you have three? You know, so you know Colorado has

290
00:15:21,240 --> 00:15:24,799
their issues. The Gardner Web game obviously Ross had mentioned

291
00:15:24,960 --> 00:15:27,440
today it's Georgia Tech and the under not going to

292
00:15:27,480 --> 00:15:31,039
make my card with not being one hundred percent positive.

293
00:15:30,679 --> 00:15:35,200
Speaker 1: I'm came, okay, We've got a lot of questions coming

294
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in on this Arkansas Old mis game. That game was

295
00:15:38,039 --> 00:15:40,519
in our rundown anyway, So let's go to us here.

296
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I see the main man, Jay Boff, thank you for

297
00:15:44,399 --> 00:15:46,440
the shout out on my hair. I appreciate that. I,

298
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you know, always try to look my best here on.

299
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Speaker 3: The Sure it wasn't me he was talking about.

300
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Speaker 1: Oh I'm sorry, I apologize there, Okay, but all right,

301
00:15:53,639 --> 00:15:56,600
so Jay Buff he really likes. These are actually two

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00:15:56,639 --> 00:15:58,879
games that are on our rundown, guys, So let's uh,

303
00:15:59,120 --> 00:16:03,399
we can hit a ball Arkansas Ole Miss Vandy South Carolina.

304
00:16:03,480 --> 00:16:08,000
Couple games in the SEC. Yes, that SEC slate getting underway.

305
00:16:08,159 --> 00:16:09,960
LSU Florida too. By the way, we'll be talking about

306
00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:11,879
that game if you have a question, hit us up.

307
00:16:11,919 --> 00:16:16,360
But Ross, let's go to Vandy South Carolina. I know

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00:16:16,440 --> 00:16:19,120
you had a lot to say about this game elsewhere

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00:16:19,159 --> 00:16:21,360
here this week on the way you talk YouTube channel.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean this game looks like a trap to me.

311
00:16:24,679 --> 00:16:27,519
You know, you're looking at a number eleven ranked team

312
00:16:27,600 --> 00:16:31,240
in South Carolina and they're just what a three and

313
00:16:31,279 --> 00:16:34,200
a half point home favorite here or four and a

314
00:16:34,240 --> 00:16:38,320
half whatever they are against an unranked Vanderbilt team who

315
00:16:38,360 --> 00:16:41,879
only got one vote one vote in the AP Paul

316
00:16:41,960 --> 00:16:45,200
this week, you know, and that I gotta scratch my

317
00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:47,440
head because right now, to me, when I look at

318
00:16:47,440 --> 00:16:49,639
these two teams, and I looked at film and both

319
00:16:49,639 --> 00:16:52,840
of them, Vandy to me is the better team. I

320
00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:56,559
mean South Carolina two and zero to cebe. Why do

321
00:16:56,639 --> 00:16:58,960
I say that they won thirty eight ten last week

322
00:16:59,039 --> 00:17:01,440
or off over so North Carolina State? But guess what.

323
00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:05,559
They scored three touchdowns by way of a punt return,

324
00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:10,119
a black punt, and a fumble return. They only compiled

325
00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:13,319
two hundred and fifty three yards of total offense against

326
00:17:13,359 --> 00:17:18,400
an FCS opponent. And the week before they won against

327
00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:21,000
Virginia Tech twenty four to eleven. We now know that

328
00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:24,440
Virginia Tech is not a very good team, and they

329
00:17:24,519 --> 00:17:27,680
benefited from a punt return touchdown in that game as well,

330
00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:32,039
and still did very little offensively. I mean, they had

331
00:17:32,079 --> 00:17:36,160
all this hype with Sellers at quarterback and they haven't

332
00:17:36,200 --> 00:17:40,480
shown me squat offensively in the first two games. You

333
00:17:40,519 --> 00:17:45,039
look at Vanderbilt one last week forty four to twenty.

334
00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:48,960
They had a huge total yards advantage of four ninety

335
00:17:49,039 --> 00:17:54,400
to two forty eight against Virginia Tech. A common opponent,

336
00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:58,720
same play team that South Carolina based on a neutral field.

337
00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:03,839
Vanderbilt went to Virginia Tech on the road and that

338
00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:06,640
game wasn't even as close as the final score may indicate.

339
00:18:07,680 --> 00:18:12,559
That's how much Vanderbilt dominated that game. And look, here's

340
00:18:12,559 --> 00:18:16,720
the thing. They've lost sixteen straight versus South Carolina over

341
00:18:16,759 --> 00:18:19,759
the last sixteen meetings. You think that's not big time

342
00:18:19,839 --> 00:18:24,640
revenge because this is to me a much improved program.

343
00:18:25,279 --> 00:18:29,559
I like Diego Pavia at quarterback. Is he an NFL

344
00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:33,039
ready quarterback? Not even close. He may make it in

345
00:18:33,079 --> 00:18:36,480
the Canadian Football League, but he's not an NFL type

346
00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:40,799
of talent. However, he's a winner. Okay, he's a winner.

347
00:18:40,839 --> 00:18:44,039
He knows how to get things done at the proper time.

348
00:18:44,559 --> 00:18:47,680
And college football, away underdogs a four and a half

349
00:18:47,839 --> 00:18:50,079
or less like Vanderbilt that are coming off in a

350
00:18:50,079 --> 00:18:53,559
way underdog upset win in which they scored forty one

351
00:18:53,599 --> 00:18:56,160
points or more and they're facing a team like South

352
00:18:56,200 --> 00:18:59,880
Carolina who's coming off a win resulted in those away

353
00:19:00,079 --> 00:19:04,119
underdogs going nine and oh against the spreads is two

354
00:19:04,119 --> 00:19:07,519
thousand and three. Not only that, Ralph, those underdogs not

355
00:19:07,559 --> 00:19:10,559
only covered all nine, they won eight and those nine

356
00:19:10,599 --> 00:19:14,160
games straight up. You gave me the Vanderbilt Commodores. Guys.

357
00:19:14,559 --> 00:19:17,039
Speaker 1: Oh wow, Ross, He's got a lot to say. I

358
00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:19,720
agree with you, Ross. I don't know if Diego Pavia

359
00:19:19,759 --> 00:19:23,519
is a future Winnipeg Blue bomber or not, but I

360
00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:25,680
will take it a step further what you had to

361
00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:28,519
say about South Carolina. Right now, guys, there are three

362
00:19:28,559 --> 00:19:30,559
teams the AP Top twenty five Pold. I know there

363
00:19:30,599 --> 00:19:32,839
was a lot of controversy about the AP Top twenty

364
00:19:32,839 --> 00:19:35,519
five pole during the week on social media. There are

365
00:19:35,559 --> 00:19:38,200
three teams that I think are wildly overrated. We can

366
00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:40,079
all write this down right now and you can come back.

367
00:19:40,079 --> 00:19:41,480
If I'm wrong, you can make fun of me in

368
00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:43,480
the comment section, or if you're I'm right, then you

369
00:19:43,519 --> 00:19:46,039
can all tell me how great I am. South Carolina,

370
00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:51,359
Iowa State, Illinois all overrated. In my opinion, I don't

371
00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:54,160
think any of those three teams end up in the

372
00:19:54,200 --> 00:19:58,240
top twenty five when the regular season is over. So

373
00:19:58,359 --> 00:20:02,000
I am with you, Ross. I think Vandy is live

374
00:20:02,319 --> 00:20:04,960
to go to Columbia here and pull the outright up

375
00:20:04,960 --> 00:20:07,880
set Ralph. Do we make it three for three.

376
00:20:08,839 --> 00:20:12,599
Speaker 3: Beating Kansas State and beating beating Iowa is enough for

377
00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:15,400
me to get him in there. So in that case,

378
00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:17,599
I totally agree with the other two. And you know,

379
00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:19,680
it's not just the AP that's a joke. And that's

380
00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:22,039
why you can never look at ranked teams early in

381
00:20:22,039 --> 00:20:24,200
the season, because all they're doing is basing on what

382
00:20:24,319 --> 00:20:26,720
happened last year. And if they win, they move up.

383
00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:29,359
They lose, they moved down. You know, I remember the

384
00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:31,519
you know when the UPI used to be big. That

385
00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:34,680
was the coach's poll. I remember listening to Urban Meyer

386
00:20:34,759 --> 00:20:37,119
talk all the time and said, I don't even fill

387
00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:39,319
out my ballot. I don't even see my ballot. I

388
00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:41,319
give it to an assistant, he fills it in, he

389
00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:42,200
sends it in for me.

390
00:20:42,319 --> 00:20:43,640
Speaker 2: So do not put.

391
00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:47,279
Speaker 3: Stock in those. They are a joke. You know, there's

392
00:20:47,279 --> 00:20:50,119
no reason for me to say anything. Guys. I agree

393
00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:53,799
with Vanderbilt. The way they've played, they should be there.

394
00:20:54,920 --> 00:20:58,039
I see South Carolina and not being there. I think

395
00:20:58,160 --> 00:21:02,519
Vanderbilt is the play. But I do like this, especially

396
00:21:02,599 --> 00:21:06,039
in the SEC, we see a team like Vanderbilt who

397
00:21:06,079 --> 00:21:10,079
scored forty five against SO Charleston Southern and forty two

398
00:21:10,079 --> 00:21:13,880
against votech When you're scoring a lot of points against

399
00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:17,599
weak non conference foes, and then you play your first

400
00:21:17,599 --> 00:21:22,359
conference opponent, your game plan changes a ton. And even

401
00:21:22,519 --> 00:21:25,200
with that, Vandergilt ran the ball sixty eight times in

402
00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:27,920
two games, only passed the ball forty eight. They're gonna

403
00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:30,559
run the ball. South Carolina is gonna run the ball.

404
00:21:30,599 --> 00:21:33,279
They've ran for seventy three times and only passed for

405
00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:36,039
thirty nine their first two games. I'm gonna go first

406
00:21:36,039 --> 00:21:38,079
half under here again. Guys. I know it sounds like

407
00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:41,279
a broken record, but agree with the Vanderbilt side first

408
00:21:41,279 --> 00:21:42,160
half under as well.

409
00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:47,200
Speaker 1: Okay, there we go. Let's stick in the SEC because, guys,

410
00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:50,799
the questions are rolling in in the chat. Jacob Hefner

411
00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:53,839
would like to know what's up with the line movement

412
00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:57,640
in Ole Miss, Arkansas. I was bummed to get the

413
00:21:57,680 --> 00:22:02,720
worst of the number, laying it with Ole Miss. Ross

414
00:22:02,759 --> 00:22:05,839
your thoughts on this one. My initial thought was maybe

415
00:22:05,839 --> 00:22:09,160
to look at an over Arkansas. They put up some

416
00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:11,079
big numbers in the first two games. I believe their

417
00:22:11,119 --> 00:22:13,759
top five and yards per play, points per game, yards

418
00:22:13,799 --> 00:22:15,160
per game, but look at who they play. It's not

419
00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:19,160
exactly a murders a rogue. A murder's role of two

420
00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:21,720
first two opponents, and then ole Miss has a potential

421
00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:25,079
injury issue at quarterback. So interesting game here in the SEC.

422
00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:27,160
Another one, Yeah, it's a.

423
00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:30,519
Speaker 2: Game that I looked at up and down and couldn't

424
00:22:30,519 --> 00:22:34,400
come up with a decisive decision either way as far

425
00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:37,440
as that move goes on the line move, I think

426
00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:40,599
they're oll Miss, and I'd be interested in hearing what

427
00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:42,519
you guys have to say. I think they're a tad

428
00:22:42,599 --> 00:22:46,599
bit overrated. I really do. They barely got by Kentucky

429
00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:48,880
last week on the road in Kentucky's not a very

430
00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:51,759
good team. I know Kentucky beat him last year, but

431
00:22:52,279 --> 00:22:56,559
again they struggled to win that game. And I just

432
00:22:56,599 --> 00:23:00,559
don't have a strong opinion here to offer the viewer

433
00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:03,960
in his question, maybe Ralph or Brian does.

434
00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:08,720
Speaker 1: Ralph lines down to seven comment or asked about the

435
00:23:08,799 --> 00:23:12,880
question there, or about something asked about a line movement?

436
00:23:13,519 --> 00:23:16,000
Any angle for you here on this one? It is

437
00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:18,519
I would concur that ole Miss a little overrated. Lane

438
00:23:18,559 --> 00:23:20,839
Kiffin had to apologize to the Betterans last week after

439
00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:22,960
the game when he gave up at lake field goal

440
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:24,799
not to cover the spread, and.

441
00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:27,200
Speaker 3: Again they only rushed for four point six yards per carry.

442
00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:29,240
That's not a lane kiffing team. They usually press that

443
00:23:29,319 --> 00:23:31,920
pace early in the season and do that. I do

444
00:23:32,039 --> 00:23:35,160
want to comment, Brian. I didn't hear the name of

445
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:38,799
the person who left the note, but my advice to

446
00:23:38,839 --> 00:23:42,519
you is this. If you like a game and that

447
00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:45,440
game has moved two or three points, just don't bet it.

448
00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:48,519
It's okay, don't. The worst thing to say is, oh

449
00:23:48,559 --> 00:23:50,880
my god, I took the worst of this line. There's

450
00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:53,000
reasons you don't bet games, and that's one of them

451
00:23:53,119 --> 00:23:55,480
is because of a line move. So don't fall in

452
00:23:55,519 --> 00:23:57,440
the trap. You have to bet that game if you

453
00:23:57,519 --> 00:23:59,319
got the worst of it. If it doesn't come back,

454
00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:01,599
let it go and look cow what you save at

455
00:24:01,599 --> 00:24:03,599
the end of the year. Right down every rin, right

456
00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:06,079
down every loss, and remember, for every dollar you save,

457
00:24:06,319 --> 00:24:10,359
you're saving an extra ten percent use. I'm gonna say

458
00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:16,319
that I actually think Arkansas's offense can move the ball here.

459
00:24:16,799 --> 00:24:18,720
I think they will be able to run against an

460
00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:22,440
old misdefense. So if I again no real lean on

461
00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:28,079
the game here, I like Arkansas team total, so if anything,

462
00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:31,200
it's a very light lean for me. But obviously if

463
00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:33,200
I like the Arkansas team total, that means I think

464
00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:35,519
they're gonna get thirty points, so that means they're likely

465
00:24:35,519 --> 00:24:38,519
going to cover this game. So by default it puts

466
00:24:38,559 --> 00:24:40,079
me on the Arkansas Lean side.

467
00:24:40,839 --> 00:24:44,640
Speaker 1: Ralph with some very sage advice there, guys, about when

468
00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:47,240
you miss the best of a number. Speaking of sage advice,

469
00:24:47,319 --> 00:24:50,200
the place to go, of course is wagertalk dot com.

470
00:24:50,319 --> 00:24:53,480
And boy, do we have a special promotion for you

471
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472
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473
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474
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for Saturday Sunday, including any five percent releases, for only

476
00:25:12,079 --> 00:25:13,880
forty nine dollars. And as a bonus, we're gonna include

477
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:17,559
any football plays on Monday at no extra cost. Sous,

478
00:25:17,599 --> 00:25:19,599
let's think I'm gonna give you guys the opportunity right

479
00:25:19,599 --> 00:25:22,759
now to talk about what you maybe have already locked

480
00:25:22,799 --> 00:25:26,599
and loaded for the weekend. Ross Big, it's a great

481
00:25:26,599 --> 00:25:29,079
way to get involved this weekend Warrior Pass. What are

482
00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:29,720
you doing this weekend?

483
00:25:29,759 --> 00:25:33,440
Speaker 2: Then? Yeah? I mean I got a five percent best

484
00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:36,920
bet on Saturday for thirty five dollars and another three

485
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:40,720
college football winners on Saturday already posted. So if you

486
00:25:40,799 --> 00:25:44,920
take the price of those picks individually, you're talking about

487
00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:47,640
one hundred and ten dollars. That's not even going include

488
00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:50,319
in the NFL on Sunday and what I put out

489
00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:53,000
on the one of the two or both Monday night

490
00:25:53,039 --> 00:25:56,640
games in the NFL. So I mean that savings is

491
00:25:56,680 --> 00:26:00,559
just terrific. And folks, let me remind you two weeks

492
00:26:00,599 --> 00:26:02,960
to the college football season, week one and week two,

493
00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:06,160
not counting week zero, I put out two five percent

494
00:26:06,279 --> 00:26:09,160
best bets. Week one, I had LSU plus four and

495
00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:13,119
a half, winning outright seventeen to ten at Clemson, and

496
00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:17,359
then last week I had Oklahoma as a five percent

497
00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:20,039
best bet. They were a five point home favorite. They

498
00:26:20,039 --> 00:26:23,759
won by eleven. My college football, by the way, folks,

499
00:26:23,759 --> 00:26:28,039
since twenty twenty three, number one in units earned since

500
00:26:28,079 --> 00:26:31,079
the start of the twenty twenty three season. Last year

501
00:26:31,079 --> 00:26:34,359
in college football, number one in units earned, number one

502
00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:39,160
and win percentage four Huge college football plays up right

503
00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:42,720
now at wagertalk dot com or at my personal link

504
00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:48,640
WT dot buzz slash rbs SO. NFL will be up tomorrow,

505
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:52,000
but certainly that forty nine dollars. That's a steal, Brian.

506
00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 1: It is I will have a five percent play in

507
00:26:55,559 --> 00:26:58,720
the NFL. On Son, We're of course talking college here

508
00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:01,279
in this hour. Talk more about what I've got going

509
00:27:01,279 --> 00:27:03,079
on my page, but I want my good friend Ralph

510
00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:05,559
Michaels to talk about what he's got going on this

511
00:27:05,599 --> 00:27:07,680
weekend before we get some more of your questions. I

512
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:09,720
see the one about Troy and Memphis. That'll be up next.

513
00:27:10,839 --> 00:27:13,920
Speaker 3: Brian. I am with you with an NFL five percent play.

514
00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:17,880
It is a teaser. My college football and NFL plays

515
00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:21,920
rated four percent and five percent have gone twenty one

516
00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:27,079
and four eighty four percent. My NFL teasers rated four

517
00:27:27,079 --> 00:27:32,440
percent higher seven and oh and fourteen and one ninety

518
00:27:32,519 --> 00:27:37,519
three percent going back to November twenty twenty three, I

519
00:27:37,559 --> 00:27:41,559
had five NFL five percents. Last year, I went a

520
00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:45,799
perfect five and oh best of all, by the Weekend

521
00:27:45,839 --> 00:27:49,000
Warrior right now, and you get all the plays already

522
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:52,319
loaded for Saturday and Sunday immediately, so you could take

523
00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:55,599
advantage of the proper lines and grab them today.

524
00:27:56,400 --> 00:27:58,880
Speaker 1: All right, So there you go, Weekend Warrior pass guys,

525
00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:01,680
any of your favorite hay Andy Kapper just forty nine

526
00:28:01,759 --> 00:28:05,039
dollars for the weekend. That is, as Ross mentioned earlier,

527
00:28:05,079 --> 00:28:08,359
a real value of steal. Dare I say, all right,

528
00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:11,960
let's talk about this game here. Adam wants to know

529
00:28:12,319 --> 00:28:17,880
about Memphis and Troy. You mentioned Clemson earlier. Clemson played

530
00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:20,720
Troy last week. Troy was beating Clemson sixteen to nothing,

531
00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:23,519
and Ross they were probably feeling pretty good about themselves,

532
00:28:23,559 --> 00:28:26,160
worn't They doubted Troy. But they of course lost twenty

533
00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:29,240
seven to sixteen. So Adam's question is do we like

534
00:28:29,319 --> 00:28:32,279
Memphis to dominate Troy after that emotional roller coaster last week?

535
00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:33,400
Or was Troy just getting going?

536
00:28:34,559 --> 00:28:38,000
Speaker 2: You know, Troy might be just that good for a

537
00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:44,000
Sun Belt team and Memphis was a favorite trendy pick,

538
00:28:44,039 --> 00:28:45,880
I should say for a lot of people that come

539
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:47,720
out of a group of five, and they still may.

540
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:50,559
But this looks like a tricky one to me, guys.

541
00:28:50,759 --> 00:28:52,680
You know, I think Troy, if you look at how

542
00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:56,039
they played defensively against Clemson last week, they just wore

543
00:28:56,160 --> 00:29:01,240
down because Clemson had more quality depth in that game.

544
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:04,319
And I think a lot of people are jumping aboard

545
00:29:04,359 --> 00:29:07,559
the Troy bandwagon this week, and that line moved from

546
00:29:07,599 --> 00:29:11,400
six to three and a half. Again, that might be

547
00:29:11,519 --> 00:29:14,200
some sharp money because it came in early, or it

548
00:29:14,279 --> 00:29:17,240
might be an overreaction to what we saw in Week one.

549
00:29:17,319 --> 00:29:19,519
But this game is not gonna get any of my money.

550
00:29:19,519 --> 00:29:24,680
Brian and I like to give Adam a definitive answer,

551
00:29:24,839 --> 00:29:27,799
but I just think there's more value to be found

552
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:30,359
on the college Football Board on Saturday.

553
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:32,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, if you like Troy. Unfortunately you did miss the

554
00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:36,279
best of the number there. Memphis Ralph very interesting. The

555
00:29:36,799 --> 00:29:39,839
final score says they dominated their FCS supponed Chaddan Nouga

556
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:41,480
last week forty five percent. They did have a pick

557
00:29:41,599 --> 00:29:44,640
six though in that game. I always think that's important

558
00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:49,319
to note Ross earlier in talking about that South Carolina first,

559
00:29:49,359 --> 00:29:52,920
we talked about all their not offensive scores. So what

560
00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:54,839
do we think is Troy for real or is this

561
00:29:54,920 --> 00:29:57,480
a tough spot? You know, you're up on a team

562
00:29:57,480 --> 00:29:59,559
like Clemson sixteen nothing, you think it's gonna be one

563
00:29:59,599 --> 00:30:01,880
of the big defining wins in program history, and then

564
00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:03,880
you get kind of boat raced to the second half.

565
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:06,680
What do you have left emotionally in the tank? Because Memphis,

566
00:30:07,039 --> 00:30:10,279
as Ross bentioned, is one of the legit contenders to

567
00:30:10,599 --> 00:30:13,200
nab that G five playoff spot, Ben.

568
00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:16,240
Speaker 3: And Brian, you mentioned the pick six More importantly, they

569
00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:19,079
went to Georgia State as that solid favorite. They only

570
00:30:19,079 --> 00:30:21,039
had a four to oh one to three eighty nine

571
00:30:21,119 --> 00:30:23,480
yard edge. They were only a plus twelve yards overall,

572
00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:26,759
So I mean that's a very misleading final. They allowed

573
00:30:26,759 --> 00:30:29,640
three hundred and forty yards passing. Troy is a team

574
00:30:29,759 --> 00:30:33,319
that I really like this year. Why because we have

575
00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:38,359
second year head coach Gerard Parker. Think about Troy last year.

576
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:41,240
They started the season one and eight. What do they do?

577
00:30:41,559 --> 00:30:44,880
They beat Coastal Carolina, they got to Georgia Southern, they win,

578
00:30:45,319 --> 00:30:48,000
They lose at UL not a bad loss. Then they

579
00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:50,359
beat Southern Miss. Now you have a team in their

580
00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:52,920
second year as a head coach. I think it's easy

581
00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:56,640
to rally in your second year, a coach that won

582
00:30:56,759 --> 00:30:58,319
four of the last five, four of the three of

583
00:30:58,359 --> 00:31:01,640
the last four games after starting one, coming off and

584
00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:05,799
winning the opener, and then playing that well against Clemson Today,

585
00:31:05,839 --> 00:31:08,079
I am sold on Troy, at least for the next

586
00:31:08,079 --> 00:31:09,480
couple of weeks. We'll see what happens.

587
00:31:10,759 --> 00:31:11,279
Speaker 2: All right.

588
00:31:11,359 --> 00:31:13,519
Speaker 1: There you go Memphis and Troy. Hopefully that helped you

589
00:31:13,599 --> 00:31:16,640
there a little bit. We're gonna go back to our rundown.

590
00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:18,200
We're gonna leave the chat for a little bit. Keep

591
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:21,119
those questions coming, guys. We are gonna be hitting LSU

592
00:31:21,160 --> 00:31:24,440
in Florida, very big weekend at the SEC. But what

593
00:31:24,519 --> 00:31:26,480
other games do you want to know about? There's a

594
00:31:26,599 --> 00:31:29,799
just a random game. You have a question, you're watching

595
00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:32,200
us right now live. Drop that question the chat. We

596
00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:33,440
will get to it, but I want to get to

597
00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:35,640
it very we talk about G five contenders for that

598
00:31:35,680 --> 00:31:38,000
playoff spot Ross, I think you have to be talking

599
00:31:38,039 --> 00:31:41,519
about the USF Bulls right now. We have beaten Boise

600
00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:46,240
State and they have beaten Florida. Now they face Miami

601
00:31:46,240 --> 00:31:50,039
of Florida. Needless to say, now, as impressive as the

602
00:31:50,079 --> 00:31:52,000
non con has been here so far, for the Bulls

603
00:31:52,519 --> 00:31:54,240
to get that playoffs up, they need to win the

604
00:31:54,279 --> 00:31:57,039
America and that's you know, several months down the line.

605
00:31:57,200 --> 00:32:02,160
But I've got a question for you here, true or false?

606
00:32:02,799 --> 00:32:06,519
Does USF care more about winning this game or just

607
00:32:06,759 --> 00:32:10,720
keeping it close? Because here's the thing. If they can

608
00:32:10,839 --> 00:32:13,960
in fact win their conference down the line, and they

609
00:32:14,039 --> 00:32:18,119
just simply keep this game close against Miami, then yeah,

610
00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:19,759
it's gonna be impossible to keep them out of a

611
00:32:19,759 --> 00:32:24,079
college football playoff come December. So I ask that to

612
00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:27,240
you because they're getting a big number here, and if

613
00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:32,559
they're down twenty late, I think they really care about

614
00:32:32,559 --> 00:32:35,160
punching it in a touchdown and which would obviously get

615
00:32:35,200 --> 00:32:37,759
them under the number here, because I think they want

616
00:32:37,799 --> 00:32:39,839
the committee at the end of the season to look

617
00:32:39,839 --> 00:32:43,480
back and say, Hey, USF only lost by such and

618
00:32:43,519 --> 00:32:45,519
such to Miami, or am I crazy or am I

619
00:32:45,559 --> 00:32:46,319
overthinket things?

620
00:32:47,920 --> 00:32:52,319
Speaker 2: Yeah? No, you make good points, But I do think

621
00:32:52,359 --> 00:32:55,519
that a team that knots off a nationally ranked team

622
00:32:55,559 --> 00:32:59,000
at the time Boise State, and then another nationally ranked

623
00:32:59,039 --> 00:33:02,480
team at flour is not going to just hope they're

624
00:33:02,599 --> 00:33:06,079
keeping it close. You know, they really, I truly believe

625
00:33:06,160 --> 00:33:09,880
they believe they could win this game and talk about

626
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:12,920
a group of five contender right now to get to

627
00:33:12,960 --> 00:33:16,599
the playoffs. Whoever wins that American to me is going

628
00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:18,839
to be the group of five contender. I mean, that's

629
00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:22,640
a better conference than people realize right now. Navy is

630
00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:26,720
also pretty good, although they lacked the overall depth and

631
00:33:26,799 --> 00:33:30,559
quality depth and defense as some of the top contenders

632
00:33:30,599 --> 00:33:31,359
in that conference.

633
00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:31,440
Speaker 3: Do.

634
00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:37,680
Speaker 2: But here's what scares me, Brian. Miami of Florida. They're

635
00:33:37,720 --> 00:33:41,359
not going to catch them by surprise. Okay, they're not

636
00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:43,759
gonna be Miami of Florida is not going to take

637
00:33:43,799 --> 00:33:47,000
this game lightly. Miami of Florida is not gonna waste

638
00:33:47,079 --> 00:33:50,599
a win over Notre Dame and their season opener. They're

639
00:33:50,640 --> 00:33:55,200
a very talented team. And it also strikes me that

640
00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:59,000
this game opened at fifteen and a half and very quickly,

641
00:33:59,519 --> 00:34:02,279
very quick, right after it opened, shout up to seventeen.

642
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:07,000
Sharp money to me if I'm not going to use

643
00:34:07,039 --> 00:34:11,440
this game. I do like the points you make, Brian,

644
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:15,719
but I truly believed it. South Florida wants to win

645
00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:19,000
this game and believes they could. Now. Wanting to do

646
00:34:19,079 --> 00:34:22,679
so and doing it are two different things. I have

647
00:34:22,760 --> 00:34:27,679
a slight, slight lean rough toward Miami here because of

648
00:34:27,679 --> 00:34:30,119
that early line move. It just, you know, you would

649
00:34:30,159 --> 00:34:33,760
think that a double digit underdog that just pulled off

650
00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:38,920
two upsets in a row against quality competition, and people

651
00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:42,119
would jump all over that, but that wasn't the case.

652
00:34:42,360 --> 00:34:44,960
And to me, that move is sharp money. That's not

653
00:34:45,079 --> 00:34:48,119
public money. So I think Miami, there's no way that

654
00:34:48,159 --> 00:34:52,440
Miami wants to contend for a national championship and lose

655
00:34:52,559 --> 00:34:57,320
to their little brother in South Florida. And that's basically

656
00:34:57,360 --> 00:35:01,119
how they look at things. So it's tough call. But

657
00:35:01,199 --> 00:35:03,320
if you put the proverbial gun to my head, I

658
00:35:03,360 --> 00:35:04,880
would lay the points with Miami.

659
00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:07,159
Speaker 1: Okay, what do you say, Ralph, it's the third straight

660
00:35:07,199 --> 00:35:08,920
week facing a right deponent for USF.

661
00:35:09,639 --> 00:35:11,960
Speaker 3: Well, you know, Brian I was on USF against Boise.

662
00:35:12,119 --> 00:35:14,480
We talked about Byron Brown, how good he was before

663
00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:16,400
he got injured, and he came back and he looks

664
00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:19,360
to be the same player. But when you asked your

665
00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:23,880
question about do they want to keep it close, there's

666
00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:26,480
no other game on the board more than this one

667
00:35:26,960 --> 00:35:31,840
that sets it up for a backdoor cover. USF has

668
00:35:32,360 --> 00:35:35,880
South Carolina State at home on deck, followed by Charlotte

669
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:41,559
at deck. Miami has big brother Florida at home, and

670
00:35:41,599 --> 00:35:44,519
then they go to Florida State, the other in state rival.

671
00:35:44,679 --> 00:35:47,760
So you're talking about them, they how many times do

672
00:35:47,800 --> 00:35:50,360
you play four in state teams in a row? But

673
00:35:50,519 --> 00:35:53,440
Thune Cookman, USF, Florida and Florida State. So to me,

674
00:35:53,519 --> 00:35:57,320
the situation clearly screams USF with no one on deck.

675
00:35:57,440 --> 00:36:00,280
I could see Florida arresting some starters before the host

676
00:36:00,320 --> 00:36:03,039
Florida next week if they're up by that aforementioned you

677
00:36:03,119 --> 00:36:06,679
said three or four touchdowns into the fourth quarter. I

678
00:36:06,760 --> 00:36:11,000
actually was close to using USF. But again, trends are

679
00:36:11,039 --> 00:36:13,360
either to help you make a bet or to keep

680
00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:16,280
you off a bet, and these trends are keeping me

681
00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:19,000
off USF. So, guys, I'm going to put you on

682
00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:21,519
the spot real quick. I need a real quick answer

683
00:36:21,559 --> 00:36:25,079
from you. How many times since two thousand and eight?

684
00:36:25,559 --> 00:36:29,920
So we're talking what sixteen years has a college football

685
00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:32,039
team won back to back games as a dog? It

686
00:36:32,119 --> 00:36:34,199
sounds easy, the first two games of the season as

687
00:36:34,239 --> 00:36:37,039
a dog. I was shocked how low this number was.

688
00:36:38,119 --> 00:36:41,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would have thought that it would be not

689
00:36:41,960 --> 00:36:45,760
real low. But now that you mentioned that, ralphin Gate,

690
00:36:46,199 --> 00:36:48,440
I love to play poker with you because you just

691
00:36:48,440 --> 00:36:49,000
showed your.

692
00:36:48,920 --> 00:36:56,039
Speaker 3: Head from cranaour teams. Fourteen teams since two thousand and

693
00:36:56,079 --> 00:36:57,679
eight have won back to back games as a dog.

694
00:36:57,960 --> 00:37:00,559
Next week they've gone six and seven. But then I

695
00:37:00,599 --> 00:37:05,960
went and did this, how many teams weren't away dog

696
00:37:06,280 --> 00:37:08,199
and one as a dog of three or more and

697
00:37:08,239 --> 00:37:10,280
then one as a dog of fourteen or more like

698
00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:13,159
USF did so back to back wins anytime in the season,

699
00:37:13,159 --> 00:37:15,960
not through the first weeks of the season. The next game,

700
00:37:16,159 --> 00:37:20,519
it's only happened thirty times since twenty eighteen. The next week,

701
00:37:20,519 --> 00:37:22,719
they are nine and twenty one against the spread. That

702
00:37:22,880 --> 00:37:25,639
is thirty percent. And if they're a double digit dog,

703
00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:28,760
they are two and fourteen against the spread. So some

704
00:37:28,880 --> 00:37:32,719
serious numbers for teams playing that third straight underdog role.

705
00:37:33,440 --> 00:37:37,800
And while I like USF and I would still give

706
00:37:37,840 --> 00:37:41,360
out USF as an opinion, this is a situation where

707
00:37:41,360 --> 00:37:44,480
those trends to me that make total sense are keeping

708
00:37:44,480 --> 00:37:45,280
me off this game.

709
00:37:46,280 --> 00:37:48,880
Speaker 1: Okay, So there you go, Battle of Florida. There a

710
00:37:48,920 --> 00:37:51,280
little bit for both sides. And remember ross W. I

711
00:37:51,320 --> 00:37:54,480
think we've mentioned this Ralph too. The first time we

712
00:37:54,480 --> 00:37:56,239
talked about Miami, I believe was what we were breaking on

713
00:37:56,280 --> 00:37:59,239
that Miami order of name game through US it's late

714
00:38:00,039 --> 00:38:03,000
and the game is close, Mario christoball will often do

715
00:38:03,039 --> 00:38:08,199
the wrong thing, so we also college that. Certainly. All right, guys,

716
00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:11,880
there there's some weekday college football action. Of course, this

717
00:38:11,920 --> 00:38:14,960
week we've got a question from Colin Gregory on a

718
00:38:15,079 --> 00:38:20,559
frill Friday night lights here coach Prime and Colorado they're going, Uh,

719
00:38:20,639 --> 00:38:22,559
looks like they've made a quarterback decision there. They're going

720
00:38:22,559 --> 00:38:24,920
with the guy who was the original third stringer against

721
00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:26,679
the Houston team that I bet over six and a

722
00:38:26,719 --> 00:38:30,440
half wins to go before the start of the season.

723
00:38:30,480 --> 00:38:32,599
I thought this Houston team was going to be improved

724
00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:36,519
in a wide open big twelve. I expect Houston to

725
00:38:36,679 --> 00:38:39,599
win this game at home Friday night.

726
00:38:40,119 --> 00:38:44,480
Speaker 2: Ross and Mike crazy, No, you're not crazy. And again,

727
00:38:44,519 --> 00:38:46,360
this is a tough call for me. I mean, this

728
00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:50,599
game open with Houston minus four, quickly moved to six,

729
00:38:51,000 --> 00:38:53,199
and now there's been a lot of buyback, Brian, I

730
00:38:53,199 --> 00:38:55,760
mean down to four and a half pretty much across

731
00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:59,519
the board in this game. And yeah, I mean I

732
00:38:59,559 --> 00:39:01,920
looked at this line and it jumped right out at me.

733
00:39:01,960 --> 00:39:04,159
And I also jumped right out at me. Was the

734
00:39:04,199 --> 00:39:09,199
early move because initially my initial thought was Colorado might

735
00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:11,159
be a nice dog in this spot. But with the

736
00:39:11,280 --> 00:39:15,719
quarterback change, and it's not like Colorado has looked very

737
00:39:15,760 --> 00:39:19,119
impressive to start the season. This isn't the Colorado team

738
00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:23,079
from a season ago. They're talented, but not quite as

739
00:39:23,079 --> 00:39:25,880
talented as that team. And yeah, I would have a

740
00:39:25,960 --> 00:39:29,079
lean toward Houston in this spot and agree with you, Brian.

741
00:39:29,639 --> 00:39:33,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's Ryan stabbed getting the start for Colorado. We

742
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:36,880
mentioned earlier when we were talking about the Colorado Georgia

743
00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:40,760
Tech game that opened the season, Ross Colorado could not

744
00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:44,559
beat Georgia Tech despite that longside a turnover March. That

745
00:39:44,559 --> 00:39:46,440
doesn't speak all of up. Now, it's a different quarterback

746
00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:51,280
getting the start here. But Houston Ralph quite even last

747
00:39:51,360 --> 00:39:55,880
year when this team struggled. Houston has a very solid defense,

748
00:39:55,920 --> 00:39:58,199
and I like the coaching staff. I don't know, I

749
00:39:58,199 --> 00:40:01,039
think this is a team on the ascent in the

750
00:40:01,079 --> 00:40:01,960
Big Twelfth.

751
00:40:04,440 --> 00:40:07,320
Speaker 3: I mean, second year head coach and Willie Fritz, you know,

752
00:40:07,440 --> 00:40:10,239
coming back and we've seen the Houston improvement and I'm

753
00:40:10,280 --> 00:40:12,480
a big fan of that. You know, second and third

754
00:40:12,559 --> 00:40:15,360
year head coaches that continue to show the improvement with

755
00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:18,239
their squads. I'm gonna make it simple. You know, this

756
00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:21,719
Colorado team doesn't rely on the pass because they don't

757
00:40:21,800 --> 00:40:24,480
have a quarterback like Shador. But let me let me

758
00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:27,719
the last two road games, the first two road games

759
00:40:27,760 --> 00:40:31,719
of last year with Shador at Nebraska, they threw for

760
00:40:31,719 --> 00:40:37,000
forty times, ran sixteen. Against Colorado State, they threw the

761
00:40:37,039 --> 00:40:40,960
ball forty nine times and ran nineteen. Now when you

762
00:40:41,000 --> 00:40:43,519
look against Georgia Tech, they ran the ball more than

763
00:40:43,519 --> 00:40:46,400
they passed. So this is the Colorado team whose offense

764
00:40:46,480 --> 00:40:49,079
is going to be completely different this year, is not

765
00:40:49,119 --> 00:40:52,119
going to be as dynamic, is going to run fewer plays,

766
00:40:52,400 --> 00:40:55,119
is going to have a massive run the pass ratio

767
00:40:55,400 --> 00:40:59,960
or at least a run heavy pass ratio completely compared

768
00:41:00,199 --> 00:41:03,000
last year. And I do like the Houston defense as well.

769
00:41:03,079 --> 00:41:04,280
Houston and the under for me.

770
00:41:05,079 --> 00:41:09,000
Speaker 1: Okay, looking at the chat here, Lucky Larry asked about

771
00:41:09,000 --> 00:41:11,320
the Notre Dame Texas AmAm. Yes, we did talk about

772
00:41:11,400 --> 00:41:14,679
this one earlier, Larry. Maybe if we've got some time

773
00:41:14,719 --> 00:41:16,480
at the end, we'll come back to it some quick thoughts.

774
00:41:16,679 --> 00:41:18,760
Nice time for me to remind you guys, I'll click

775
00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:21,119
that subscribe button down below. That way you'll be instantly

776
00:41:21,119 --> 00:41:24,000
notified when the show goes live each and every Thursday

777
00:41:24,039 --> 00:41:26,159
at one pm Eastern. But if we do some time, Larry,

778
00:41:26,159 --> 00:41:28,159
we can just kind of do a cliff notes version

779
00:41:28,239 --> 00:41:30,519
of our thoughts on Notre Dame in Texas, A and M.

780
00:41:30,679 --> 00:41:32,400
But I want to get to another game here that

781
00:41:32,760 --> 00:41:39,320
godfather Jay six asked about. This is Bama and Wisconsin.

782
00:41:40,039 --> 00:41:43,119
All Look, Bam, I'll tell you what. Ross Luke Fickle,

783
00:41:44,519 --> 00:41:48,119
he needs to get in gear otherwise he may be

784
00:41:49,119 --> 00:41:52,800
selling his home in Madison because this Wisconsin offense looks

785
00:41:52,920 --> 00:41:57,559
absolutely atrocious now. Caylin de boor everyone was ready to

786
00:41:57,639 --> 00:42:00,199
ride this guy out of town in Tuscaloos. Incluing thatman

787
00:42:00,480 --> 00:42:02,039
who I don't know if you guys saw this clip

788
00:42:02,079 --> 00:42:04,159
on social media, she said if she won the Alabama

789
00:42:04,159 --> 00:42:06,440
State lottery, the first thing she would do with her

790
00:42:06,480 --> 00:42:09,000
money was pay the buyout for Kaylen de Borr and

791
00:42:09,039 --> 00:42:10,440
run them out of town. I think that is an

792
00:42:10,480 --> 00:42:14,599
interesting use of winning the lottery. But I digress. Alabama

793
00:42:14,679 --> 00:42:18,360
killed l A. Monroe last week. What do we think

794
00:42:18,400 --> 00:42:21,280
Alabama does here against Wisconsin? They killed him last year.

795
00:42:21,639 --> 00:42:25,079
I remember watching that game. Maybe I don't know. We

796
00:42:25,199 --> 00:42:27,559
liked Alabama Ross at the start of the season. Then

797
00:42:27,559 --> 00:42:29,119
they go out and they lose to Florida State, who

798
00:42:29,159 --> 00:42:32,599
might actually be a very very good team. So kind

799
00:42:32,599 --> 00:42:34,760
of an interesting evaluation of the Crimson tide right now

800
00:42:34,760 --> 00:42:35,360
where they're at.

801
00:42:35,880 --> 00:42:39,079
Speaker 2: This guy's got to be related to me with you

802
00:42:39,079 --> 00:42:42,360
know a handle named Godfather. You know it's again. I

803
00:42:42,400 --> 00:42:44,920
thought that Alabama woman's gonna take all the money if

804
00:42:44,960 --> 00:42:47,159
she won the lottery and hire Ralph Michaels as a

805
00:42:47,199 --> 00:42:53,360
head coach at Alabama because anyway, on a serious note,

806
00:42:53,519 --> 00:42:56,840
I think Wisconsin's a very deceiving two and oh they

807
00:42:56,880 --> 00:42:59,480
don't don't have a lot coming back from a season

808
00:42:59,519 --> 00:43:04,079
to go. Luke Fickle, to me, has not been getting

809
00:43:04,119 --> 00:43:07,079
the job done at Wisconsin. It's tough to get the

810
00:43:07,199 --> 00:43:11,760
nil money there. And I think Alabama everybody threw them

811
00:43:11,840 --> 00:43:16,800
under the bus after that season opening loss to Florida State.

812
00:43:16,840 --> 00:43:20,159
But maybe Florida State is just that damn good Ralph.

813
00:43:20,360 --> 00:43:24,880
You know my lean here is definitely the way that

814
00:43:24,960 --> 00:43:27,599
Crimson tied. I think they covered a spread by the

815
00:43:27,679 --> 00:43:31,159
half and then win going away. I just don't think

816
00:43:31,239 --> 00:43:34,559
Wisconsin has that type of offense they never had under

817
00:43:34,639 --> 00:43:38,800
Luke Fickle where they're built to come from behind. So

818
00:43:38,920 --> 00:43:41,559
I think it could snowball out in them very easily

819
00:43:41,639 --> 00:43:45,440
if they fall behind quickly, and I think that's what

820
00:43:45,599 --> 00:43:48,400
will occur. And I like Alabama to win big here.

821
00:43:48,920 --> 00:43:52,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Wisconsin defense is that okay, Ralph. Obviously they've

822
00:43:52,000 --> 00:43:54,400
played some weak teams. My heavy of Ohio. By God,

823
00:43:54,880 --> 00:43:57,239
turn your eyes away when they're on offense. Everybody but

824
00:43:58,639 --> 00:44:01,639
the offense. Again, Wisconsin has not been up to stuff,

825
00:44:01,679 --> 00:44:05,199
and I concur with Ross the boss there, that if

826
00:44:05,360 --> 00:44:08,239
Wisconsin falls behind, I don't know how they come from beyond.

827
00:44:08,239 --> 00:44:10,840
So you've been giving out a few first half thoughts

828
00:44:11,440 --> 00:44:13,639
so far in the program. Rough is this a situation

829
00:44:13,639 --> 00:44:16,280
where you would lay it with Alabama in the first

830
00:44:16,280 --> 00:44:17,719
half or how would you approach this game?

831
00:44:18,599 --> 00:44:20,880
Speaker 3: We remember they were the run of the century. I

832
00:44:20,920 --> 00:44:22,440
mean a couple of years ago. What did they go

833
00:44:22,559 --> 00:44:25,440
fourteen and one on first halves? Again, we had new

834
00:44:25,480 --> 00:44:29,239
head coach Klin de Boor and you know you might think, well,

835
00:44:29,320 --> 00:44:31,719
Bama has George on deck, but again there's a bye

836
00:44:31,719 --> 00:44:33,840
week on deck, so it's not quite the same situation.

837
00:44:34,440 --> 00:44:36,840
I think Bama uses this as a as a prep

838
00:44:36,880 --> 00:44:39,360
game to show Georgia. I think they're going to try

839
00:44:39,400 --> 00:44:43,320
running the ball. I am not impressed. Again, I agree

840
00:44:43,360 --> 00:44:45,159
with what Ross said and what you said Brian, that

841
00:44:45,920 --> 00:44:50,239
the Florida State lost maybe a fine loss in a

842
00:44:50,280 --> 00:44:52,119
couple more weeks. I mean they were only out gained

843
00:44:52,119 --> 00:44:54,559
three eighty two to three forty one. Yes, they've lost

844
00:44:54,599 --> 00:44:57,159
by fourteen the way the game played out, but you

845
00:44:57,199 --> 00:45:02,000
can't overreact to those Week one games. I think I

846
00:45:02,039 --> 00:45:04,239
think Alabama is going to try to run the ball.

847
00:45:04,320 --> 00:45:06,000
I don't think they need to pass it much. I

848
00:45:06,000 --> 00:45:08,280
think they need to work on that. I think that

849
00:45:08,440 --> 00:45:11,239
Wisconsin's rush to he has always been decent. I don't

850
00:45:11,280 --> 00:45:14,920
know how they're gonna fare here again. Holding Miami to

851
00:45:14,960 --> 00:45:17,239
one point five in Middle Tennessee to one point two

852
00:45:17,280 --> 00:45:21,239
doesn't show you anything. But I actually like if I

853
00:45:21,280 --> 00:45:24,039
had to play here, I would play this actually full

854
00:45:24,079 --> 00:45:27,360
game total, because if they have some trick plays, Wisconsin

855
00:45:27,440 --> 00:45:30,039
might try to use them early. You know, Fickle came

856
00:45:30,079 --> 00:45:35,519
out and said, we have this Alabama game circled all

857
00:45:35,559 --> 00:45:38,800
summer long. Who the heck circle is a road game

858
00:45:38,840 --> 00:45:41,519
against a non conference fall I've never heard that of

859
00:45:41,559 --> 00:45:44,119
a Big ten coach to even waste his time saying that.

860
00:45:44,440 --> 00:45:46,800
So maybe he does have some sort of scheme that

861
00:45:47,079 --> 00:45:50,039
he's going to try some fluke things early and they didn't. Maybe,

862
00:45:50,079 --> 00:45:53,280
and again maybe since they won seventeen nothing in forty

863
00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:56,440
two to ten, maybe we just think Wisconsin's offense is

864
00:45:56,480 --> 00:46:00,119
bad because he's hidden the playbook until he starts to

865
00:46:00,119 --> 00:46:03,079
play Alabama. That's a possibility. That's something we don't know.

866
00:46:04,440 --> 00:46:06,440
I think the points are too high for Alabama on

867
00:46:06,440 --> 00:46:08,920
the road in the situation. But again, I don't want

868
00:46:08,920 --> 00:46:13,320
to be on Wisconsin either, But call me a pass

869
00:46:13,360 --> 00:46:13,920
on this one.

870
00:46:14,159 --> 00:46:16,199
Speaker 1: Okay, something else we need to know here. You know,

871
00:46:16,239 --> 00:46:19,159
we talked about the Wisconsin offensive. Billy Edwards junior doesn't

872
00:46:19,199 --> 00:46:21,559
sound like he's gonna play in this game, so the

873
00:46:21,679 --> 00:46:24,960
task got a little bit tougher for Luke Fickele and

874
00:46:25,000 --> 00:46:25,559
the team.

875
00:46:26,360 --> 00:46:29,760
Speaker 2: Just at I mean again, it was an oversight by Roof,

876
00:46:29,800 --> 00:46:32,000
But Alabama's at home in this game, Roof, not on

877
00:46:32,039 --> 00:46:32,360
the road.

878
00:46:32,599 --> 00:46:36,519
Speaker 3: My apologies. That's called Ross was making fun of my

879
00:46:36,599 --> 00:46:38,639
age before the show started. Guys in the Green.

880
00:46:38,960 --> 00:46:44,679
Speaker 2: Yeah, I thought you were gonna tell me game sched.

881
00:46:45,239 --> 00:46:49,480
Speaker 1: Yeah. Good, good catch there, Ross all right there. The

882
00:46:49,880 --> 00:46:52,159
SEC seems to be the theme here. We talked about

883
00:46:52,159 --> 00:46:54,239
a lot of Alabama. Obviously, whether or not they can

884
00:46:54,280 --> 00:46:56,880
still be a force in this conference remains to be seen.

885
00:46:56,880 --> 00:47:00,760
But we're gonna learn something here in the SEC Saturday night,

886
00:47:00,800 --> 00:47:03,760
when this is the final game on our scheduled rundown guys.

887
00:47:03,760 --> 00:47:05,199
Of course, we always are going to talk about the

888
00:47:05,239 --> 00:47:07,320
big games each and every week here on the Blitz.

889
00:47:07,320 --> 00:47:09,519
If there's a game that we have not mentioned that

890
00:47:09,599 --> 00:47:11,519
you want our opinion on, the only have a few

891
00:47:11,559 --> 00:47:13,480
minutes left to get those questions in, guys, to do

892
00:47:13,559 --> 00:47:15,880
that right now if you're watching live in the chat.

893
00:47:16,119 --> 00:47:20,039
But we're gonna go to LSU and Florida Ross is

894
00:47:20,079 --> 00:47:22,639
there's some that it's interesting. There's ways to look at

895
00:47:22,679 --> 00:47:26,320
there's different ways to look at this right Florida bad

896
00:47:26,400 --> 00:47:30,079
loss to South Florida last week. Look, you should never

897
00:47:30,119 --> 00:47:32,159
spit on opponent, obviously. The fact that you would do

898
00:47:32,199 --> 00:47:34,400
it a couple of days after it made national headlines

899
00:47:34,400 --> 00:47:36,519
in an NFL game was really stupid, I thought. And

900
00:47:36,519 --> 00:47:38,800
then it cost your game. It cost you the game,

901
00:47:38,840 --> 00:47:41,320
Florida and Ross. You know I'm gonna do it again

902
00:47:41,400 --> 00:47:43,880
here the seat. It's getting a little hot in Gamesville

903
00:47:44,039 --> 00:47:49,719
for down there because if Florida loses here and then,

904
00:47:49,800 --> 00:47:54,760
as Ralph mentions mentioned earlier, they've got Miami Florida Billy Napier,

905
00:47:56,079 --> 00:47:59,920
I have to get that. Indeed, dot Com resume open again.

906
00:48:00,320 --> 00:48:03,880
Speaker 3: Okay, is there anyway, Napier survives to October the first

907
00:48:04,400 --> 00:48:07,719
at LSU at Miami of Florida home against Texas at

908
00:48:07,719 --> 00:48:08,199
Texas A.

909
00:48:08,199 --> 00:48:10,639
Speaker 1: And M No, that is not an easy schedule.

910
00:48:10,639 --> 00:48:13,320
Speaker 3: No chance he is around after October first.

911
00:48:13,800 --> 00:48:17,280
Speaker 1: Well, if he pulls an upset here, Ross, I guess

912
00:48:17,280 --> 00:48:19,159
you know he could have some job security for the

913
00:48:19,159 --> 00:48:21,000
time being. What do you think, because to me, when

914
00:48:21,039 --> 00:48:22,920
I look at a team like Florida, who no one

915
00:48:23,000 --> 00:48:24,639
was expecting to lose last week to us, they were

916
00:48:24,679 --> 00:48:27,840
double digit favorite. Obviously, Look, we respect usf on the program,

917
00:48:27,840 --> 00:48:30,280
we talked about that earlier, but people thought Florida was

918
00:48:30,320 --> 00:48:33,719
gonna win that game. To me, my opinion is always

919
00:48:33,800 --> 00:48:35,960
there's some value now in the underdog. That's what the

920
00:48:36,000 --> 00:48:38,599
market seems. The market thinks this number opened a little

921
00:48:38,639 --> 00:48:41,159
bit too high and is impressive as LSU looked against

922
00:48:41,199 --> 00:48:44,519
Clemson and the opener, Boy, did they just sleepwalk their

923
00:48:44,559 --> 00:48:46,440
way to a win over Louisiana Tech last week?

924
00:48:46,480 --> 00:48:48,360
Speaker 3: Hey, Ross, let me jump in here and I'm gonna

925
00:48:48,400 --> 00:48:50,559
give people an angle, and then I'm gonna have them

926
00:48:50,559 --> 00:48:52,400
think of the angle after you get done out here

927
00:48:52,440 --> 00:48:55,159
at the angle with them. So, Brian, this is sort

928
00:48:55,159 --> 00:48:58,679
of something without you telling me this. What's the ATS

929
00:48:58,719 --> 00:49:02,440
record for teams after they lost as a home favor

930
00:49:02,559 --> 00:49:05,679
of fourteen or more. I'll get you those ATS numbers

931
00:49:05,679 --> 00:49:07,280
after Ross Finn says his breakdown.

932
00:49:08,239 --> 00:49:10,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I could almost assure you that Ralph is

933
00:49:10,639 --> 00:49:13,239
gonna come up with an angle that supports the underdog,

934
00:49:13,360 --> 00:49:16,920
because I do the same type of technical handicapping, and

935
00:49:16,960 --> 00:49:20,199
I don't mean any disrespect by any means with Ralph

936
00:49:20,239 --> 00:49:23,239
because but we think alike in that regard. So I

937
00:49:23,280 --> 00:49:27,320
think I think Ralph's gonna mention that there's an angle

938
00:49:27,360 --> 00:49:33,280
that supports the underdog in this situation coming off a

939
00:49:33,280 --> 00:49:36,199
favorite loss of minus fourteen and a half or greater.

940
00:49:37,719 --> 00:49:42,039
Here's the thing with me. LSU was listless last week, Brian.

941
00:49:42,159 --> 00:49:47,400
You mentioned that, I just think that I got to

942
00:49:47,440 --> 00:49:49,760
give him a pass. They come off they have big

943
00:49:49,840 --> 00:49:54,079
win against Thompson on the road, and you know you've

944
00:49:54,119 --> 00:49:58,719
got Louisiana Tech in between the game against Clemson and

945
00:49:58,800 --> 00:50:01,880
this showdown with flour who at the time was a

946
00:50:01,960 --> 00:50:04,960
nationally ranked team when they faced him when they played

947
00:50:05,039 --> 00:50:09,920
last week. So to me, again, I'm gonna stick with

948
00:50:10,039 --> 00:50:13,199
my guns here. I think that LSU is the best

949
00:50:13,239 --> 00:50:16,199
team in the country. I said that before the season started.

950
00:50:16,599 --> 00:50:19,320
I gave him out on college football betting preview show

951
00:50:19,360 --> 00:50:22,199
with Teddy. I gave him out at plus fourteen hundred

952
00:50:22,199 --> 00:50:25,000
to win the national title. Now they're around plus eight

953
00:50:25,159 --> 00:50:29,199
hundred or so. Is a single digit favorite. Now, if

954
00:50:29,239 --> 00:50:32,119
they were in the double digits of a touchdown or more,

955
00:50:32,199 --> 00:50:35,320
that's one thing. But as a single digit favorite in

956
00:50:35,400 --> 00:50:40,920
this situation and billying Napier, he's on the hot seat.

957
00:50:41,480 --> 00:50:44,159
It doesn't look like the players really have his back.

958
00:50:44,480 --> 00:50:48,360
The way they played last week against South Florida. I'm

959
00:50:48,360 --> 00:50:50,480
going to lay the points here with LSU. I know

960
00:50:50,679 --> 00:50:53,159
the early money came in on Florida, but I just

961
00:50:53,199 --> 00:50:56,239
think LSU is that much better, and I think the

962
00:50:56,320 --> 00:50:59,320
seat's gonna get scalding hot after this week.

963
00:50:59,400 --> 00:51:02,360
Speaker 1: Ralph, all right, Ralph, to give us the trend here.

964
00:51:02,400 --> 00:51:04,960
I know you tease the trend. You heard what Ross

965
00:51:05,000 --> 00:51:07,679
had to say. He's sticking with the buy you Bengals,

966
00:51:08,159 --> 00:51:11,400
LS you Coast given sport Home. Give us the try.

967
00:51:12,159 --> 00:51:14,599
Speaker 3: Well, Ross, this isn't a wild number, but again, I

968
00:51:14,639 --> 00:51:16,559
want to share it just so people know I had

969
00:51:16,559 --> 00:51:18,559
the exact same thought as you Ross. I was expecting

970
00:51:18,599 --> 00:51:21,280
it to be a fairly at least a profitable number.

971
00:51:22,760 --> 00:51:24,639
In the last one hundred and seven games where a

972
00:51:24,679 --> 00:51:27,400
team lost as a favorite of fourteen or more, they

973
00:51:27,400 --> 00:51:30,199
are fifty one and fifty six forty eight percent against

974
00:51:30,239 --> 00:51:34,599
the spread the next game. So again it's to me,

975
00:51:34,679 --> 00:51:37,519
it's as important to know a trend that you had

976
00:51:37,519 --> 00:51:39,280
a thought in your mind and you know now that

977
00:51:39,320 --> 00:51:42,159
thought should be thrown out because it's not relative either way.

978
00:51:43,519 --> 00:51:44,000
Speaker 2: You know, with.

979
00:51:44,079 --> 00:51:47,360
Speaker 3: Lagaway, I don't know if there's legitimate reports that he's

980
00:51:47,360 --> 00:51:49,639
banged up or just the rumor mills, but that's an

981
00:51:49,679 --> 00:51:54,440
issue here. This is another game where I love playing

982
00:51:54,480 --> 00:51:57,280
these conference games weeks two or three like this when

983
00:51:57,320 --> 00:52:00,639
you're matching up now. LSU did play some competition, and

984
00:52:00,719 --> 00:52:03,079
yes they were on the road at Death Valley, but

985
00:52:03,119 --> 00:52:05,400
they only had a you know, they only had a

986
00:52:05,400 --> 00:52:07,199
three fifty. Were only had three hundred and fifty four

987
00:52:07,280 --> 00:52:09,320
yards and they only rushed for three point five yards

988
00:52:09,320 --> 00:52:12,679
per carry. The Florida defense against USF they did allow

989
00:52:12,719 --> 00:52:15,280
three hundred and ninety three hundred ninety one yards and

990
00:52:15,320 --> 00:52:18,280
they have been sacked against each of their first two opponents,

991
00:52:18,519 --> 00:52:21,079
which getting a sacked against Long Island and only rushing

992
00:52:21,079 --> 00:52:23,679
for five point three is pretty scary. So it's going

993
00:52:23,760 --> 00:52:26,119
to be under for me again in this one. And

994
00:52:26,639 --> 00:52:29,159
something I want to mention and I am remiss for

995
00:52:29,280 --> 00:52:34,039
not having this data for you. Big ats difference in

996
00:52:34,320 --> 00:52:37,599
LSU Death Valley playing a night game and a day

997
00:52:37,679 --> 00:52:40,840
game with this being seven thirty PM. So next time

998
00:52:40,960 --> 00:52:42,719
LSU has a night game, I'll make sure I have

999
00:52:42,800 --> 00:52:45,360
those numbers for you here on the blitz. But again,

1000
00:52:45,920 --> 00:52:49,920
it's Death Valley at night games and Penn State whiteouts

1001
00:52:50,079 --> 00:52:53,880
are my two highest rated home home home field edges

1002
00:52:53,920 --> 00:52:55,039
at all of college football.

1003
00:52:55,639 --> 00:52:57,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, something tells me this will not be the last

1004
00:52:57,519 --> 00:53:00,239
night game for LSU. LSU home game this year, and

1005
00:53:00,400 --> 00:53:02,360
I'm with you. I think there are a strong contender

1006
00:53:02,679 --> 00:53:04,880
right now with the question marks we're seeing a quarterback

1007
00:53:04,920 --> 00:53:07,800
with Georgia in Texas and Alabama, I think LSU is

1008
00:53:07,880 --> 00:53:12,559
very live to win the SEC. We have one question

1009
00:53:12,639 --> 00:53:15,920
coming in on another Friday night game from Godfather Jays

1010
00:53:15,920 --> 00:53:18,719
Sticks chimed in again. He wants our thoughts on Kansas City, Arizona.

1011
00:53:18,880 --> 00:53:20,280
You will get to that in just a moment. I'm

1012
00:53:20,320 --> 00:53:23,119
gonna just take my opportunities since this is the Friday game.

1013
00:53:23,400 --> 00:53:25,960
To promote what I've got going on again one more

1014
00:53:25,960 --> 00:53:28,559
time WP dot buzz. Last, people, we've got that weekend

1015
00:53:28,719 --> 00:53:30,760
for your pass. So if you want to get down,

1016
00:53:30,840 --> 00:53:34,159
you get Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and remember we're throwing in Monday.

1017
00:53:34,239 --> 00:53:36,880
Ross mentioned it's a double header this week on Monday.

1018
00:53:37,079 --> 00:53:43,360
Remember you got Bucks Texans Raiders hosting the Chargers. I

1019
00:53:43,440 --> 00:53:47,440
will have a five percent NFL play on Sunday. We

1020
00:53:47,480 --> 00:53:50,880
will have at least three college plays on Saturday. I

1021
00:53:50,920 --> 00:53:53,119
know we're gonna we're locked and loaded the three NFL

1022
00:53:53,159 --> 00:53:55,239
plays on Sunday, and I might be playing both Monday

1023
00:53:55,320 --> 00:53:58,440
night football games guys in the NFL. So look, forty

1024
00:53:58,519 --> 00:54:01,159
nine dollars, you can't beat that. I'll let these guys

1025
00:54:01,840 --> 00:54:04,920
after they're done. Given their breakdowns on Kansas State Arizona,

1026
00:54:05,000 --> 00:54:08,360
reminds you what they've got cooking this weekend as well. Ross,

1027
00:54:08,599 --> 00:54:10,159
I'll give you. I'll throw it to you now. The

1028
00:54:10,199 --> 00:54:13,199
floor is yours, Kansas State, Arizona, and remind the people

1029
00:54:13,360 --> 00:54:15,800
what you have going on this weekend at wager talk

1030
00:54:15,840 --> 00:54:16,280
dot com.

1031
00:54:16,599 --> 00:54:20,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I can't pull the trigger on Kansas State.

1032
00:54:21,360 --> 00:54:24,000
I thought that they would wake up last week against

1033
00:54:24,119 --> 00:54:28,599
Army at home. Nothing embarrassing about losing by three on

1034
00:54:28,639 --> 00:54:31,440
a road against a nationally ranked opponent in Iowa State.

1035
00:54:32,199 --> 00:54:36,159
But then the following week you come back, Yes, you're

1036
00:54:36,239 --> 00:54:39,920
weary from travel, but you're playing an FCS opponent in

1037
00:54:40,039 --> 00:54:43,079
North Dakota and you need a last minute touchdown to

1038
00:54:43,119 --> 00:54:46,159
win at home thirty eight to thirty five. Then you

1039
00:54:46,360 --> 00:54:49,800
play Army is a seventeen point favorite. Army team that

1040
00:54:50,320 --> 00:54:55,440
lost to Ralph s Almamater Tarlton State in their season opener.

1041
00:54:56,119 --> 00:54:58,320
Maybe it wasn't Ralph Alma matter, he'll let us know,

1042
00:54:58,360 --> 00:55:01,400
I'm sure, but you know they laid an egg and

1043
00:55:01,440 --> 00:55:03,960
they lose the game outright. Not only not covered, but

1044
00:55:04,000 --> 00:55:06,880
they lose the game outright. Arizona's got a little bit

1045
00:55:06,920 --> 00:55:11,719
of a momentum after a terrible year last year. They

1046
00:55:11,719 --> 00:55:16,039
win their first two games, Yes, albeit against less than

1047
00:55:16,440 --> 00:55:21,400
imposing opposition. But I think that Arizona State, with the

1048
00:55:21,480 --> 00:55:24,559
momentum and playing at home against the Kansas State team

1049
00:55:24,599 --> 00:55:27,880
that right now, I'm not sure what you're gonna get from.

1050
00:55:28,079 --> 00:55:31,519
You know, I can't pull the trigger line. Kansas State

1051
00:55:32,280 --> 00:55:36,400
probably a game I'm going to pass on but if

1052
00:55:36,440 --> 00:55:39,760
you again, the proverbial gun to my head, pick would

1053
00:55:39,760 --> 00:55:41,360
be on Arizona in this one.

1054
00:55:42,400 --> 00:55:45,320
Speaker 1: Ralph, those who have followed me and have been on

1055
00:55:45,360 --> 00:55:47,639
board with me for any length of time before, now

1056
00:55:47,639 --> 00:55:50,000
that I am the ultimate bilog. I love to buy

1057
00:55:50,079 --> 00:55:51,920
low on teams, and this would appear to be a

1058
00:55:52,000 --> 00:55:55,480
by low spot on Kansas State. But I'm with Ross.

1059
00:55:55,519 --> 00:55:57,440
I don't think I could trust this team. My power

1060
00:55:57,519 --> 00:56:00,599
ratings say no. I mean they're they're back up to

1061
00:56:00,679 --> 00:56:02,760
a road favorite here. I don't want to play them.

1062
00:56:02,920 --> 00:56:06,000
I know they hammered Arizona last year in Manhattan the

1063
00:56:06,000 --> 00:56:09,599
Little Apple, but this game is out in Tucson late Friday.

1064
00:56:09,679 --> 00:56:11,559
Start your thoughts on this one.

1065
00:56:13,519 --> 00:56:17,559
Speaker 3: My biggest power rating difference, and that's just because I

1066
00:56:17,559 --> 00:56:20,119
haven't lowered Kansas State enough, you know, I mean CAN'TA

1067
00:56:20,159 --> 00:56:22,119
State is by far my biggest dropper in the power

1068
00:56:22,239 --> 00:56:24,679
ratings this year, so I cannot back them. I understand

1069
00:56:24,719 --> 00:56:27,639
you're by you know, by high by low situations. But

1070
00:56:28,639 --> 00:56:31,559
it's one thing to buy low because the team lost

1071
00:56:31,599 --> 00:56:34,800
but played okay. It's another to get out gained by

1072
00:56:34,800 --> 00:56:38,119
eighty six yards against Army and only rush for seventy

1073
00:56:38,159 --> 00:56:40,519
four yards against an Army team that has a very

1074
00:56:40,519 --> 00:56:42,840
small D line against an opponent I just don't like

1075
00:56:42,880 --> 00:56:45,840
the Arizona State side either, so no opinion for me.

1076
00:56:45,920 --> 00:56:48,039
I can't get I can't get to either side on this.

1077
00:56:48,159 --> 00:56:50,800
And just a reminder again, we can warrior forty nine

1078
00:56:50,840 --> 00:56:54,360
bucks a five percent NFL playloaded for Sunday now, all

1079
00:56:54,400 --> 00:56:57,360
of Saturday, all of Sunday and Monday football included a

1080
00:56:57,400 --> 00:56:58,159
great offer.

1081
00:56:58,960 --> 00:57:01,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, Arizona's two and all against the number so far

1082
00:57:01,440 --> 00:57:03,679
this year. Guys, here is a stat this you know

1083
00:57:03,880 --> 00:57:05,920
I'd like you, guys. I always pour over these box

1084
00:57:05,960 --> 00:57:09,639
scores each and every week. This was the most astounding

1085
00:57:10,039 --> 00:57:13,440
stats from last week in college football. Okay, Kansas State

1086
00:57:13,840 --> 00:57:19,239
second half time of possession against Army three minutes. They

1087
00:57:19,239 --> 00:57:21,679
had the ball for three minutes and a half. Tough

1088
00:57:21,679 --> 00:57:24,199
to win when you only have the ball for three minutes, Rossy.

1089
00:57:24,000 --> 00:57:28,079
Speaker 2: I just wonder if Avery Johnson's father and his brother

1090
00:57:28,119 --> 00:57:30,960
got in a fight after that game. Man, Yeah, to

1091
00:57:31,039 --> 00:57:33,880
plan that way, holy cow, especially when the brother didn't

1092
00:57:33,880 --> 00:57:37,880
get on the field for only three months minutes. You know, unusual, Brian,

1093
00:57:38,079 --> 00:57:41,039
You know when you play Army to move time possession,

1094
00:57:41,480 --> 00:57:43,239
But you know, I took the Army and it's not

1095
00:57:43,320 --> 00:57:45,360
like they wrecked up a ton of offense. They were

1096
00:57:45,440 --> 00:57:48,679
less than three hundred yards on the game themselves. So yeah,

1097
00:57:48,719 --> 00:57:51,960
I mean, what's going on Brough's.

1098
00:57:52,400 --> 00:57:54,760
Speaker 3: You know, It's one thing to say Kansas had three

1099
00:57:54,800 --> 00:57:58,559
minutes of possession. It's another to be a Kansas State

1100
00:57:58,599 --> 00:58:02,440
team and allow Army to run eighty two plays against you.

1101
00:58:02,519 --> 00:58:05,519
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean yeah. I love to Ross's point.

1102
00:58:05,719 --> 00:58:07,679
Armies a team, they're gonna run that play clock down.

1103
00:58:07,760 --> 00:58:10,119
I mean, their goal is to eat that time of it.

1104
00:58:10,199 --> 00:58:12,800
But even by an Army opponent standard guys, three minutes

1105
00:58:12,800 --> 00:58:16,199
at time of possession is quite ridiculous. We've been talking

1106
00:58:16,199 --> 00:58:19,000
about this weekend Warrior pass several times. I should have

1107
00:58:19,039 --> 00:58:21,000
mentioned when I talked about the five percent play that

1108
00:58:21,039 --> 00:58:23,199
I've got this weekend six and two last week for

1109
00:58:23,280 --> 00:58:25,559
me in football three and one college, three and one NFL,

1110
00:58:25,559 --> 00:58:28,599
we had sixty six percent last year September guys in

1111
00:58:28,760 --> 00:58:32,000
NFL and college combined. So no surprise that I'm off

1112
00:58:32,000 --> 00:58:34,679
to a seventy five percent to start this year. Mister Benjamin,

1113
00:58:34,719 --> 00:58:35,760
I believe you had something to say.

1114
00:58:36,800 --> 00:58:39,639
Speaker 2: No, I was just giving you a thumbs up again. Yeah,

1115
00:58:39,679 --> 00:58:43,599
I didn't mention it again to review four picks in

1116
00:58:43,639 --> 00:58:47,760
college football on Saturday, including the five percent best bet.

1117
00:58:47,760 --> 00:58:50,800
You know, tough week for me in the NFL, folks,

1118
00:58:50,800 --> 00:58:53,039
I'm going to bounce back. I mean, look, I had

1119
00:58:53,079 --> 00:58:55,519
the over end of Thursday night game the Dallas and

1120
00:58:56,039 --> 00:58:58,880
in Philadelphia game, you know, forty one at the half

1121
00:58:58,880 --> 00:59:05,039
and then's up forty four. I had Denver minus eight

1122
00:59:05,079 --> 00:59:07,039
and a half. They win by eight, and they pass

1123
00:59:07,159 --> 00:59:09,440
up a field goal opportunity with less than a minute

1124
00:59:09,440 --> 00:59:13,440
to go on fourth down. You know, field goal opportunity

1125
00:59:13,480 --> 00:59:15,800
would have been from fifty something yards rough, but you

1126
00:59:15,800 --> 00:59:17,679
know you're in field goal range when you enter the

1127
00:59:17,719 --> 00:59:21,239
stadium in Denver, you know. So a couple of tough

1128
00:59:21,280 --> 00:59:23,639
losses there, and then the Monday night game I lost

1129
00:59:23,639 --> 00:59:25,840
with Chicago. So I tell it the way it is.

1130
00:59:26,400 --> 00:59:29,159
You know, I brag about my college football record, but

1131
00:59:29,199 --> 00:59:31,440
you know in the NFL didn't go as well. And

1132
00:59:31,719 --> 00:59:35,960
we're transparing your folks. You know we're not making up stores.

1133
00:59:36,480 --> 00:59:40,119
Speaker 3: Hey, Ross, if James Franklin was at Denver coaching, they

1134
00:59:40,159 --> 00:59:41,239
would have tried that field goal.

1135
00:59:41,519 --> 00:59:43,559
Speaker 1: Oh there's no you tried a.

1136
00:59:43,559 --> 00:59:44,280
Speaker 3: Fake field goal.

1137
00:59:44,679 --> 00:59:50,199
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, all right, just real real quick here, if

1138
00:59:50,199 --> 00:59:51,920
you guys, did you guys want to reiterate your thoughts

1139
00:59:51,920 --> 00:59:53,840
on Notre Dame Texas Adam, because we had a follow

1140
00:59:53,920 --> 00:59:55,559
up on that. Somebody suited in the show.

1141
00:59:58,280 --> 01:00:00,280
Speaker 3: On the first haalfity, But I think there was some

1142
01:00:00,320 --> 01:00:02,400
good information. Just rewind back and go view it again.

1143
01:00:02,440 --> 01:00:03,840
I mean it's only a couple of minutes.

1144
01:00:03,599 --> 01:00:06,599
Speaker 2: Till yeah, yeah, yeah, Notre Dame coming off a loss

1145
01:00:06,639 --> 01:00:09,280
with Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame coming off of bye week,

1146
01:00:10,280 --> 01:00:13,960
you know again, Notre Dame coming up, Notre Dame beating

1147
01:00:14,079 --> 01:00:17,000
Texas A and M on the road last year. I

1148
01:00:17,039 --> 01:00:19,400
not there's a revenge factor, but there's something to be

1149
01:00:19,480 --> 01:00:23,159
said about that Notre Dame defense, which is very experienced.

1150
01:00:23,199 --> 01:00:25,639
In how Texas A and M and check last year.

1151
01:00:25,840 --> 01:00:28,039
I don't see why the same thing doesn't occur here.

1152
01:00:28,719 --> 01:00:31,519
Speaker 1: All right, Colin Gregory, thank you for your kind words.

1153
01:00:31,679 --> 01:00:34,480
I concur it was a great show indeed, And if

1154
01:00:34,519 --> 01:00:36,559
you thought it was a great show, it could be

1155
01:00:36,559 --> 01:00:38,519
like Colin and just tell us it was a great show,

1156
01:00:38,599 --> 01:00:41,000
or you could smash that like button there right below.

1157
01:00:41,039 --> 01:00:45,079
We always appreciate your support here on the Blitz. We

1158
01:00:45,159 --> 01:00:48,280
are live, of course, every Thursday one pm Eastern on

1159
01:00:48,320 --> 01:00:51,039
the Wage Talk you two channel, immediately following Andy Laying

1160
01:00:51,159 --> 01:00:53,880
and Wager Talk Today, the show that I know we

1161
01:00:53,960 --> 01:00:58,079
all appear on regularly as well. All right, that is

1162
01:00:58,199 --> 01:01:00,280
going to do it. Remember to get your wee Weekend

1163
01:01:00,360 --> 01:01:04,079
Warrior Pass. We were all locked and loaded for a

1164
01:01:04,119 --> 01:01:07,079
big weekend of football, Ross, Ralph and myself. Remember it's

1165
01:01:07,079 --> 01:01:09,119
gonna be three of us each and every week here

1166
01:01:09,159 --> 01:01:10,960
on the Blitz. We like each other so much we

1167
01:01:11,079 --> 01:01:14,400
decided to be your permanent team. So on that note, guys,

1168
01:01:15,239 --> 01:01:17,760
until next time, let's cash some tickets