Speaker 1: Love, Welcome in to last call here on Wager Talk.
It is college Football Week twelve. I'm Joe Madden. Kelly
Ster will be back next week filling in for her
today as she is on a plane taken off somewhere.
But we've got a lot to go over today. Art
to Caesar unfortunately is unable to make it you guys.
But I do have what he's needing where the sharp
money is going, So we're gonna go over that first.
But before we do, make sure you hit that like
button over here on YouTube. Also open your own logic
page so you can look at these lines across the board.
We always want to shop for our best lines for sure,
so looking at what Art is needing you guys. Also
before we do, I want to note Gianny the Greek
Teddy covers and Ralph Michael's in the show today, so
absolutely loaded for you guys. Art is needing us s.
That is the number one need for the books, needing
Texas as well, which is kind of surprising. I thought
money would be on the other side of that. We're
needing Navy, Michigan State South, othern myths and Old miss
Those are all the needs for Westgate now. When we
look at where the sharp money is, Iowa plus the
seven has the sharp money u n l V minus
four and minus five and a half. Sharp money has
come in on San Jose State minus the eight and
a half, TCU plus four and a half and plus
three and a half, Texas State plus the six and
a half and plus the four and a half UVA
plus six and a half and plus five. Now where
the public really has come in. Publics come in on
ukon uga A and M and ls U LSU after
that last game, can't pley. Public money has come there.
Art's favorite play Udsu Udsu minus the two and a
half is Art's favorite place. You guys, that's where Art
is going. Like I said, we got a whole bunch
of people in there. I'm seeing comment that I need
a mic. If my mic isn't at the right levels,
let me know it could be my voice today, you guys.
I was yelling at my TV live last night quite
a bit. But we've got Johnny the Greek in Teddy Covers,
Ralph Michaels in the live chat here. You guys, drop
what you want to ask these guys where you have
questions before you get these bets in. It is a
week twelve, so much on the line for a lot
of these games, some really big games on the deck.
So we'll see what we're gonna have. I think we've
got some upsets maybe in the making. Let me know
who your favorite upset is. And again, all those questions
in that chat, we're going to get to them. So
let's bring Johnny the Greek in see where the steam
is at all.
Speaker 2: Right, good morning, good morning, busy morning.
Speaker 3: We got college football, college basketball, NFL tomorrow, UFC pay
per view, So I'll start where do you want to start?
Speaker 2: I'll guess share some of the steam moves.
Speaker 3: I mean there's like three hundred when you add sides
in totals and college basketball, college football. But here's some
of the sides I probably tell from the line moves.
Three twenty eight James Madison minus twenty Notre Dame talked
about them earlier in the week at three fifth, the
one they're up at about twelve and a half thirteen
right now. Georgia got steamed earlier in the week. Opposite
money came in later in the week. Iowa touched on
that as well. Michigan, Michigan early Northwestern late. We did
see some Northwestern money come in late. What else do
I have for you? Sharnt oh, Memphis plus three, Memphis
plus three over fifty in Georgia and Texas, and yeah
the rest I gave out a bunch on bed on it.
But that's some of the college football that's still sitting
around and didn't get much.
Speaker 2: Resistance.
Speaker 1: Let's say now we're seeing art does need Texas out there.
Are you surprised by that that money is coming in
on Georgia?
Speaker 2: No, no, no, no, no, not at all.
Speaker 3: In fact, Texas has been one of those teams that
early on people drew that narrative that their phony that
you know, Manning just has the name. If you remember,
they had some problems early on and everyone was fading
them against Oklahoma that was a huge game. They turned
it around, got the W and power rating wise, what's
it called? Texas has been slowly but surely climbing. Georgia's
same thing. I'm not surprised to see the sharps on
the dog and the public on Georgia. They've been getting
money pretty much every week. I haven't touched that game personally,
and we're.
Speaker 1: Seeing movement in that line there's a four and a
half even right now at hard Rock because there is
some money coming in on Texas, So gonna be an
interesting one there to see if arch Manning can play
up in this big game, if he can expose the
secondary a little bit there. Of Georgia, Johnny, you think
maybe it's a good day. He had two great days
before that.
Speaker 4: Ye.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean listen, like, there was no way he
was going to live up the expectations. He would have
had to come in and own five touchdowns every game,
four hundred yards no interceptions to live up to those expectations.
So obviously, like when you set that kind of standard
and then you have that last name, it's always going
to be hard to live up to it. If anything,
I think you were able to take advantage of it
when he did come out not looking all that great,
living up to it. But I see no reason why
he's not going to continue to improve in this system,
if anything, And I think as he gets more minutes
under him, you're just going to see better and better results.
So yeah, I don't think that was abnormal. I think
if anything, that's him progressing towards the mean. He's going
to be a stub that's the bottom line, but they
just can't cover the number because they do attract money
at the window. Again, they've won four straight games, but
they've only covered one of those because they've just been
priced high because of that that name, I guess. But yeah,
they're getting faded today by the Sharps, that's for sure.
But I don't really have an opinion. Gun the head,
I don't know. I'd pass, I'd say shoot me. I
don't want this game.
Speaker 1: I got one more question than arch Manning. If he
comes out and it's a big in this one, is
able to carry Texas to a win here over Georgia,
will he be in Heisman conversation in.
Speaker 3: Your No, no, no, no, it's too late for that.
It's way too late for that. There's there's other guys
that surpassed him. Yeah, I just don't think that he'll he'll.
I don't even think the odds are going to be
worth it because coming in he was just so overvalued.
Then he dropped obviously in price. That was probably when
they get him. But if anything, if he comes off
a big game, it'll be once again like that, the
price is jacked up.
Speaker 2: So now I don't see any value there.
Speaker 1: Okay, Richard Lockhart has a question here. He's got air
Force plus the seven and a half. Any thoughts on
that one.
Speaker 3: No, I haven't seen anything actually on that game, so
his opinions probably better than mine. I I haven't betted,
I've seen I know they keep saying that all the
public's on Connecticut all that. I'm sure the percentage sites
say Connecticut, Connecticut, but I'm not seeing that the back
end that I see most of the public accounts are
actually on air Force a book that has really good
balance of public players all across the country.
Speaker 2: Same thing with him. He's got balanced action.
Speaker 3: So I see that the one sided talk on Connecticut,
but I just don't see it in the book. And
that half point line movement through that key seven worries
me a little bit. I don't like the game, gum
the head. I'd probably lay the points with Connecticut, but
now it's seven and a half.
Speaker 2: No, it's a pass. Good luck. I hope his air
Force bet because I don't have it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's have comes to your head this morning? What Andrew?
Speaker 2: Some ugly games?
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's definitely some tough games out there across the board.
Andrew's asking about Cincinnati and.
Speaker 3: Duke Cincinnati Cincinnati, Well, we saw two sided action here.
Cincinnati got early money. Today you're starting to see that
Arizona money come in Cincinnati. So again, I don't mean
that like not, I just don't have anything there. Like
there's if I see both sides in the account, I
can only tell you what I'm seeing, and that's exactly
what I've seen. I've seen Arizona side and Cincinnati side
gun the head one more time. It's another game that
I just wouldn't bet again. You got to remember we're
paying admission every bet we placed. You have to lay
eleven to ten. Whether you like it or not, you're
paying an admission, so you have to have conviction. And
I just don't have that conviction. And I never want
to steer the viewers away from their own opinion, Like
if I don't have anything strong and no conviction, I
don't want to shave them towards.
Speaker 1: One side or another.
Speaker 2: But that's all I'm seeing in that game.
Speaker 3: I saw Cincinnati steam, I saw Arizona sharp money as well,
And so far today line's just been sitting there at
five and a half.
Speaker 2: So I guess the books feel at minus one ten.
Speaker 3: Neither side gives you the best of it because they
seem comfortable at five and a half.
Speaker 1: Are you seeing any love coming in for Clemson at all?
Speaker 2: That was yesterday? That was yesterday. Yeah, they got day.
Speaker 3: It's got there for some nice four plus the three Okay.
Speaker 1: Nice, nice to see clembs a game on a Friday night.
Let's see what else people are asking here for you.
Thoughts on South Carolina plus seventeen. They have a lot
of cover.
Speaker 3: I like it over Texas A and M. There's a
game I do like because Texas A and M has
been overvalued. I've talked about it. People think I have
something personal against Texas A and M. I promise you
I do not. I've slowly been moving them up in
my power ratings. They just cracked my top ten. But
they've been overvalued. They've been exceeding expectations. Good for them,
but I've been continuing expecting them to regress towards their
mean and they're just not a top three team in
the country. That's just not the case. So I like
South Carolina here. I think they're a decent three and sixteen.
The line shouldn't be more than I think eleven twelve.
Probably again, South Carolina's had the third toughest schedule in
all of college football, third toughest, and yet they have
a top fifteen defense with that, and this is an
offense that's barely top seventy. So it's an offense that's
not giving the defense any help. And yet they're still
top fifteen and they've had the third toughest schedule. If
I'm catching points, I'm gonna look at a team like that,
especially against a Texas A and M team, where I
know I have the superior defense. You know, they're barely
top twenty five. They've had a solid strength of schedule too,
but not as tough as South Carolina's.
Speaker 2: I think.
Speaker 3: So Carolina keeps it within the number. Eventually Texas A
and M does get exposed, we'll find time to make
money off them. But at seventeen, that's a gift. I
like say South Carolina a lot today.
Speaker 1: Okay, I'm gonna throw out one here because I can't
believe no one's talking about it, not tre Don versus Pit.
What are your thoughts here on Pitt? They kind of
been talking they're head coach that they don't care about
this one. Johnny, do you think that's just maybe him
thrown out an excuse early for a lot.
Speaker 2: That's where the narrative got away from us. Like I.
Speaker 3: Wish I could tell you to keep the bet Notre Dame,
but I can't urge you to take a bad number.
Speaker 5: I got down.
Speaker 3: I'll tell you I becave a four percent best bet
to my subscribers at minus ten. In fact, it qualified
for a five percent big move because the power rating
that I had showed Notre Dame should win this by
a lot more than that spread. And more importantly, I
knew I felt confident that the line was going to
move in my favor. The only reason I didn't fire
five percent is this that I knew the line was
going to move. I was confident it was going to move,
and I didn't want the Wager Talk girls to get
a bunch of emails this morning.
Speaker 2: Asking what do we do? What do we do? He
gave it out eleven, and now it's at twelve and
a half or thirteen. What do we do?
Speaker 6: What do we do?
Speaker 3: So instead I said, just put it out at four percent.
Tell them it's a it's a four up until this number.
After that it's your own risk tolerance, But yeah, I
like Notre Dame here. They've been an undervalued team because
of their record, but it's one of those teams that's
gonna get into college football playoffs once they win this game,
and they're gonna be dangerous once they get into those
college football playoffs because they are a top five power
rated team, I can tell you that, and I think
they blow Pitt away. In fact, I like the under
also because I don't think Pitt's gonna do much scoring.
Usually need two teams to score to get an over,
and I just don't think Pitt's gonna have any success
against Notre Dame's defense. The reason I haven't bet this
over is one of the books I respect most right
now in college football has shaded their line towards the over,
meaning they're trying to book under money. Whenever they're enticing
me to do something and it's someone I respect like that,
I'm gonna let it go. Saw pass on the total,
But I do like Notre Dame at thirteen. It would
be a smaller bed obviously than a minus ten, But
there's no reason for me to like the pit Sigdn.
Speaker 1: Okay, we do have a little Jay asking about Oklahoma
and Alabama. This is a big game between these two here.
We did see that line open at seven. We're seeing
six is basically across the board. Now, forty five and
a half was the opening total. There is a couple
there is a forty five at Pinnacle on a forty
six at bet three six five, so that total kind
of all over the place by that one point.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and this is another game that you saw some
short money come in on the dog, but there's more
than enough public money on Alabama to offset that. Finally,
the recreational betters are realizing just how good Alabama is.
Remember they got that loss earlier in the season and
people kind of forgot about them a little bit early on.
They've shown they are an elite team top five power
rating for sure. The seven I get it with Oklahoma.
If I could get seven right now, I would probably
take it, especially at like you know, minus one ten
now where it sits. I don't think that's the case
anymore power rating wise, I actually have Alabama winning this
game by more than a touchdown, but I like the
way it's set up for Oklahoma catching a touchdown. But
I wouldn't fade Alabama right now, you got to remember
we're at the end of the season. This is where
factors that you can't quantify actually matter, meaning playoffs and
bull seeding that's gonna matter.
Speaker 2: Senior Day that's gonna matter. Style points.
Speaker 3: Are you blowing teams away like James Madison has to do,
That's going to matter. Those are factors that we have
to try to figure out towards dand of college football season.
That's very difficult to quantify for us and the books,
and you could take advantage of it. But right now,
like I said, I would not get out ahead of Alabama.
I like Alabama, but I don't point spread wise. I
just don't see value in betting it. Again, it's a
game I want to watch, but I'm not betting that
side or total. If I had to bet the total,
i'd go over, but I'm not betting it.
Speaker 1: Okay, Johnny, I know you've got an absolutely loaded day
out there. We'll let the rest of the chat questions
come for Teddy Covers and Ralph Michaels. I want to
know one more play that you would jump on right now,
and then what you got for sale for us over
at wager Talk.
Speaker 3: I like Memphis, I like Memphis plus three. They're the
better team catching points. In fact, I think they should
be the favorite in that matchup. So let's go with
Memphis plus three because that should still be available. I
think that number. I have my college football package up.
I kept it like I said. I could upgrade it
to a five percent play and bump it up ten bucks.
Not going to do that because the four percents have
been money. I've won ten of twelve weeks in college football.
I'm coming off a losing week, So what should we do?
Progress towards the mean and bounce. And That's exactly what
I've done going into today. Five and zero this week
in college football through these weekday games.
Speaker 2: I love my card for Saturday.
Speaker 3: Also have UFC. Don't overlook that because I have a
five percent in there. I've been fired a five percent
in a while in the UFC. Found a nice dog
for us today. Think I got eight plays in there,
so a big day. We're gonna roll that over into
NFL on Sunday, and it's the end.
Speaker 2: Of the year.
Speaker 3: Best time to jump on board. Bowl games coming up,
playoffs coming up. College basketball. I now have this set
of power ratings to work with, just a good time
to make some money, so jump on board and best
of luck to all this weekend.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, best of luck to you tomorrow, Johnny today and
for the rest of the week. Take care. Okay, guys,
that was Johnny the Greek. Make sure you do go
on over to wagertalk dot com to get his best bets.
Like you said, five percent UFC play tonight. You don't
want to miss out on those UFC plays. But I
wanted to go over one more time. I see guys
in the chat asking what Art Deseizar was wanting out there.
He needs what the sharp and what the public money
is coming in on. So the needs for Westgate Super
Book USC, that's the number one need out there. Then
they're needing a Texas which again I'm kind of surprised
by all of that money not coming in on Texas.
They're needing Navy big house players on u SF and
then Michigan State, Southern Miss, and Ole Miss. Now the
sharp money coming in on Iowa plus the seven UNLV
minus four and a half and at minus five and
a half San Jose State minus the eight and a
half TCU plus the four and a half and plus
the three and a half Texas State up plus the
six and a half and plus the four and a half,
u v AT plus six and a half and plus five.
Now where the public money is coming is Yukon SGA
A and M and LSU. So his favorite play is
SDSU minus the two and a half. So yeah, Art
is a legend, that is for sure. J Dogg. But
you guys were going to bring in a Teddy Covers.
After Teddy comes in, Ralph Michaels is gonna come in,
So drop your questions, drop your comments for these guys,
We're going to try to get to some of the
ones still up above before. So let's bring Teddy Covers
into the show. Teddy, good morning, Happy Saturday.
Speaker 6: Good morning. And I'm proud to be the one who
brought Art to Caesar into the Wager Talk family. You know,
Art and I were talking down at the West Gate.
He's like, I want to start doing some shows. I'm like,
come on with us, and he started. He started with
Wager Talk today with President I and it has become
a thing. Obviously, what's it five six years later and
Art is a legend by now, so uh, you know,
we love having them on or whenever we can get it.
How are you this morning, Joe Andrew?
Speaker 1: Pretty good? I'm excited for this week twelve slate. Are
you looking at this day like there are some big
meaningful games. You got some big dogs coming out with
any wins here, Teddy.
Speaker 6: There's big meetings. So that's the whole thing. Like, oh,
this college football card is better than that college football card.
Every week there's fifty sixty games to choose from. Every
week there's games we're interested. It doesn't matter if it's
Week one or what is it Week twelve? Now, whatever
week it is, I'm always interested in the college football card, dude,
Like this is a great week, all right, sure you know,
but when it comes to it's always the top twenty
five showdowns that attract my attention. They're often smaller conference
games that pique my interest.
Speaker 1: Okay with you saying that, before we get into the
live chat convo here, what smaller schools should we be
looking at? Like? Who should we have circled out there?
Because I want to hear this. This is where we
know those lines may be not as sharp on these
smaller schools.
Speaker 6: Study art to Caesar just gave you San Diego State,
and I'm with him one thousand percent. Again. I want
a good team off a bad showing, and that's exactly
what we have here, especially in a statement game at
home against a squad like Boise I'm an Aztecs believer tonight.
Gim me Sean Lewis and company minus two right now
against Boise State.
Speaker 1: It's a good line, just laying the two there. Okay,
let's jump into some of these bigger games. I want
to hear your thoughts on Texas versus Georgia. There's been
a lot of talk in the chat here. What are
you thinking with Texas versus Georgia. We're seeing Georgia now,
these lines will be moving when we've been talking you guys,
there was only one four and a half. They're popping
across the board for Georgia. Lay in the four and
a half. That wasn't six and a half. Texas now
coming in with some late money.
Speaker 6: Sure, So let me just answer a couple of from
the chat that I'm just popping right here that I want,
and I'll talk about Texas and Georgia. Block Beta ASCID.
Did I say SDSU Yes, San Diego State SDSU, John McGuire,
Memphis might come out flat after a crushing defeat, and
they might. That was my biggest concern about Memphis this week.
I had no interest in that side of East Carolina
or past for this better. When it comes to arch Manning,
I heard Gianni talking early saying, look, arch Manning is
better than what we thought he was. I'm not convinced
that arch Manning is any better than what we thought
he was. What arch Maning has done over the last
two weeks or the last two games is take on
two of the weaker defenses in the SEC and put
up decent numbers against him. I do not trust him
against this level of defense, not even close, not even maybe.
So it's a kind of scenario where I understand where
the sharp money has come. Sharp money took different numbers
than what we're looking at right now. Again on the
Odds Logic Live odd screen right now four and a half,
that's cheap. George is real, and I understand Texas has
an elite defense all right, But between the hedges is
not a place I'm looking at. Step I need a
good reason and a good quarterback to step in front
of Georgia in this venue. I'm not a manly believer,
not yet. Anyway, So maybe bulldogs are passed for this
better And I have a free play video on my
page at w dot buzz backslash TC talking about this
very game. And of course we did a free play
video on YouTube the Way. If you have a subscribed
to the Way You Talk YouTube channel, do it right now.
We're approaching what a quarter of a million of you
who have subscribed to the channel. Why do we have
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get ins alerts every time this tough goes live.
Speaker 1: Yeah, tons of great free content you guys, and that notification.
But I'll turn it on. You'll know. As soon as
these videos do draw another big game Oklahoma versus Alabama
out there. We've seen this line drop from seven to
a couple of sixes out there across the books for
Alabama Oklahoma. The total coming in in this one at
forty five and a half. Forty six is on a
couple of the books. Anything on this one, Teddy, you.
Speaker 6: Look so bright over there. I feel like I'm washed
out here. You know, it's like a it's a rainy.
It's been beautiful in Vegas for literally, this has been
as nice a fall. I've been in Vegas since ninety eight,
and this has been as nice a fall as I
can ever. A member just been gorgeous every single day.
And today's day they're like, yeah, yeah, it's gonna rain,
so it's all cloudy. You look all bright, yeah, and shiny.
Speaker 1: Showing outside though, Teddy, Teddy, I've got snow here, So
it's all a facade. It's the lights.
Speaker 6: Well, you have excellent lighting. It's working well. When it
comes to Alabama and Oklahoma from Okay, I get that
there's a sharp square divide on this game, and I'm
on the square side. But I'm on the square side,
all right, I'm on the Alabama side. I'm not stepping
in front of the Crimson Tide. I don't believe in
John Matterier against against elite TVA more than any other factor.
And it's not just it's not just a quarterback play
for the Sooners. They don't have the game breaker at receiver.
If you're gonna beat Alabama, you need someone. If you're
gonna go and give Alabama game, you need someone that
can create a quick strike offense, and I just haven't
seen that from the Sooners all year. I need playmakers
for teams that are stepping in front of Alabama, you know,
to step front of Alabama, and I don't see it
on the Oklahoma side. So whether it happens early or late,
I think at some point Alabama pulls away. I mean under,
I know I'm kind of against John. Johnny liked the
dog and over, like the favorite and under, and there's
some correlation there. I believe between dog and over and
favorite and under. If you think Oklahoma can score on Alabama,
then you're going to play DOGG and over. I don't
think Oklahoma can score in Alabama. Therefore I look to
favorite and under.
Speaker 1: I love that. Okay, So looking at some of these
totals out there, are you thinking there's any totals that
are just too high that you're expecting more defense in
these games that maybe people want to jump on a total?
Speaker 6: Any totals that are too high that stand out? So
I'm not sure how much score in Maryland's going to
do against Illinois today. Fifty one and a half. You
know that one, to me was one that I I
was looking potentially at an under. In that being said,
those side of the equation, if you're playing Florida Atlantic overs,
you just keep playing Forida Atlantic overs. They're sixty two
and a half sixty three against too lane sins. There's
a couple that are you know, off the top of
my head, I can give you my I can go
back and look at some notes and give you more
if you like it. That's two that I was.
Speaker 1: Oh, that's okay. Chase Turner though ask in Texas supposed
to six and a half in the under for the game.
Any thoughts on that one.
Speaker 6: I don't trust arch Manning against this defense. I do
not want the Longhorns. They be Georgia or pass I
you know, I'm looking at some favorite today. I want Georgia.
I want Alabama in the Marquee matchups. So it's not
about taking the points.
Speaker 1: Okay, what about the over? LSU and Arkansas were getting
asked in the chat. Any thoughts on that one?
Speaker 6: So I'm gonna play on the side for that ballgame.
Visit my home page buzz backslash TC to get on board. Right, guys,
From a total standpoint, I LSU is not a team
I want to play overs with right now. You know
their quarterback issues with nuss Meyer. There's at another receiving
corps that we haven't seen the playmaking ability that we
thought we might see coming into the season. But at
the same time, a Tiger's defense is tough as nails.
So they're not a team that I'm gonna rush to
play overs with my ARKANSI is, but lsu is it?
Speaker 1: Okay? And then one more question here for you. We
do have a question about UCLA.
Speaker 6: Can they sush fires officially out? Now?
Speaker 1: Okay? So do you think they can score? Do you
think they're going to be able to get anything done? Not?
Speaker 6: Enough enough?
Speaker 1: Not enough in that one. Okay. I think we've gone
through all these questions for you, Teddy. Teddy, I appreciate
your time today joining us here on last call. I
know you're going to crush the books. You've been crushing
the books across the board. What do you have up
for sale over on wadgertalk dot com.
Speaker 6: Oh, my NFL was good last week. My college football
stunk last week. So we got a little bouncing back
through Johnny's five and oh this week I'm not We'll
give him credit and we'll leave me in the hungry
and focused category. But yeah, we got a three three
pack up in college football for today. We have NBA
for tonight, we have NFL lock andloaded for tomorrow. We
did sweep the board in NFL last Sunday. But don't
buy plays. Get on board with that. I mean, the
Weekend Warrior package is what to do. It's forty nine bucks.
It's every football play right through Monday night. If we're
in action on Monday night, it legitimately vale there's legitimate
value in that. It's very reasonably priced. It's a good
opportunity to get on board for a couple of days.
Let's see, we're cann make some money together. So forty
nine dollars all access pass available on my home page,
available on all of our own pages at Wayer talk
dot com.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you guys, head on over there. And Teddy, you
crushed the end zone hosting it, yes, or last week
you absolutely did a fantastic job. Will people see you
back on it tomorrow?
Speaker 6: Yeah, I've been on pretty much every week. I'm not
hosting tomorrow. We have unfortunately Press coming back, so that
should make the show a lot worse. But it'll be
fun for us to make fun of him, and hopefully
I can get My favorite thing to do on that
show is just get steam coming out of Press's ears.
And if I can actually see the steam coming out
of his ears, that means I've done my job. So
we'll see if we can we can flick flick him
in the year and then push his buttons tomorrow and
have you know that show it's fun. You know, we're
all watching games together, and the concept is you get
it's a way you talk unplugged. You know, it's way
you talk off the record. You get a little bit more.
You know. I try to be on business when I'm
on air, and and that show is not designed to
be all business. Designed it for us to have fun
with each other and in the process give you guys
a bunch of good betting nuggets. So I encourage you.
Haven't watched it yet. End Zone Live every Sunday right here,
I wait to talk TV.
Speaker 1: Teddy absolutely crushed the books for this week twelve slate
as well as tomorrow. We'll see you next time here
on last call. Thank you.
Speaker 6: I look forward to and have fun. Say hi to
Ralph obvious see Ralph in forever, So say hi to
Ralph for me.
Speaker 1: Okay, we'll say hi to Ralph for you you guys.
That was Teddycovers. Make sure you do head on over
to wager talk dot com to grab all of his
best bets that he does have over there. Great to
have him on the show this morning. And yeah, if
you guys haven't checked out the End Zone, pres is
back hosting it tomorrow. But Teddycovers always jumps on. I'll
be jumping on for the first quarter tomorrow morning, so
it should be a good one. There's so much to
go over, you guys, we have gone over everything that
Art was looking for. What he needs SDSU is what
he needs San Diego State or is what he likes
for his best playlane in the two and a half.
So that was jumping up in the questions. So we're
gonna bring in Ralph Michaels see what he's like. And also,
you guys jump in the live chat here, get your
questions out there for Ralph. I'm gonna try to go
back through make sure we've answered all of the ones
thus far, but if you've got new questions for Ralph,
make sure you do jump in that chat. Also, open
your own flag drink page. We're talking these lines. Lines
are moving on a couple of these games. So really
interesting to see that Texas one. It has bounced back
up to a five on some of those books. Money
coming in on both sides of that. So Texas Georgia
four and a half's now basically across the board. We
did see the flashes of the fives. There's still a
five sitting at Sports four one one if you like Texas,
but I'm seeing five and a half or four and
a half across the board except for Bette Rivers does
have a six for Georgia. So interesting line movement in
that one. Is this These games kicking off pretty quick.
That is a seven p thirty Eastern one though tonight
later game tonight, so let's bring in Ralph Michaels.
Speaker 6: Maybe not, he's a couple of minutes late, but we're
working on it.
Speaker 1: That is okay, guys, we need a couple more minutes
before Ralph comes in. So you're stuck with me for
the next couple and what I'm like and out here,
you know, I'm looking at these games. And I did
grab Texas plus the points I just thought and I
got Texas plus the six and a half. I got
them early here, you guys, at four and a half,
I would stay off if you're looking to jump into
a game right now. I think if this one goes
the way where Texas can cover, we need arch Manning
to be the man. And that's kind of scary in
situations because we know how arch looked to start the season.
He had those struggles out there on the field and
he turned the ball over. But you're looking at him
over the last two games before that, boy, he was
able to throw for three hundred plus yards, three touchdowns
and only one interception back to back games, you guys,
So it was him being the man. He needs to
do it again. If he can come out and do
that and then we can see Texas's defense shut down
Georgia's ground game, then they have every ability to keep
this one tight. We know Kirby Smart's defense should be
able to get things done, but I'm looking at this
one being one where Texas needs us. They need to
come out, they need to get things done. So a
couple of things I took because I believe in Arch.
I took Arch Manning for over the two hundred and
twenty and a half passing yards in this game, I
think he has to be able to throw down the
field into those type pockets. I also took him over
one and a half passing touchdowns. Now you risk with
him over one and a half passing touchdowns him running
one in with his legs. But I think he's going
to be put in the situations where he will throw
the ball in the end zone. It's coming in up
plus one fifty four. I also like the plus money
we were able to get on that. So the over
one a half passing touchdowns for Arch and then over
the two hundred and twenty and a half passing touchdowns. Now,
Gunner Stockton will be put to the test in this game. Absolutely,
his ability from a clean pocket is there, but if
he gets that pressure, the pocket starts to collapse around.
I do think he's going to have some struggles out there,
so he needs protection in front of him. I'm leaning
towards this game staying under the total. You guys, we're
looking at a total open up forty seven and a half.
We're seeing a fifty and a half over on Sports
for one one. I think that is just too high.
I would look at the under fifty and a half,
even though I think Arch Manning is able to throw
those over one and half passing touchdowns, those two passing touchdowns.
But we've got Ralph in let's hear what he's liking.
Speaker 4: Hey, that's a pretty brave statement there, joke saying you
like Manning. I've not heard many people say that. So
congrats to you. That's a strong statement. Good luck to
you on their play.
Speaker 1: Thank you so much. Yeah, if I'm going down, I
guess I'm going down with ourch hopefully not in that one.
So Ralph, we got some great games Week twelve. I
don't know how this college football season has gone so quick,
but it seems like every college football season's gone so quick.
There's teams that need the win today, they need statement wins.
There are teams that maybe just looking at some title
games they want to win, like Pitt, but they're saying,
we don't need the win here. So what are you
thinking across the board?
Speaker 4: Well, you know, one thing is I think people when
people say they must win, they have need. I could
perceive that as a negative, and some people perceive that
as a positive. When you have pressure like Texas, I'll
use Texas as example, because you just broke that game down.
You know, for them to have to go on the road,
perform well or basically be out of the college football
playoffs puts.
Speaker 5: A lot of pressure on you.
Speaker 4: And remember they did have three hundred and thirty six
yards against Ohio State, which looks damn good now, but
at Florida they only had three hundred and forty one yards.
At Kentucky they only had one hundred and seventy nine yards.
So that does concern me. Another thing I want to
bring up now that we get too late in the season.
Remember when you get in the summer and you're practicing
every team's goal. I don't care if you're Acron, I
don't care if you're Massachusetts, I don't care if you're
the worst Sunbell team. Your goal is still to get
to a bowl. So when you reach a seventh loss,
that makes you bowl ineligible. And we see a lot
of bad teams when they reach seven losses, start to
play more young players as they look to next year,
or are just disappointed, and they tend to finish the
season poorly.
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely they do. So getting to some of these
questions here leaning towards the points with air Force against Yukon,
any advice on that one.
Speaker 5: Well, I'll tell you what.
Speaker 4: Yukon to me is probably the most impressive team this
season based on what they.
Speaker 5: Were a year ago.
Speaker 4: Jim Mora has done a fantastic job, and to me,
I'm gonna say the obvious, this is an incredibly high total,
but it is for a reason. Yukon's offense the last
few weeks, let's see fifty one points thirty eight thirty
four to thirty eight thirty seven. Air Force with this
incredible offense and a very poor defense, has really pressed
the tempo in the game. I like the over in
this one, and if I had to pick a side,
I would lean air Force.
Speaker 5: It's very tough for.
Speaker 4: A team like Connecticut that doesn't play the option to
get prepared late in the season for this type of offense.
Speaker 5: Air Force Lane like the over a little bit.
Speaker 1: More, okay, so lean into the over as well, Boss Moves.
Asking about ECU.
Speaker 4: You know, I will say this East Carolina was one
of my top plays this week. It's a game I
very much like. I think this Memphis team is a
very fake team. When you look at Memphis defense, they've
allowed over four hundred and sixty yards four times. This
East Carolina offense absolutely rolling. They have over fifteen hundred
yards their last three games, they've scored over one hundred
and thirty points. East Carolina wins this game going away.
Speaker 1: Lots of questions coming in right now, Ralph, love to
see you guys. Keep dropping those questions that we'll try
to get to all of them. Duke or Southern miss
What are you like in Uncle Ralph? I love you.
Speaker 4: Well. You know in the Duke game, I would lean
Duke because of you know, Virginia's quarterback is not likely
to play and even though Duke's offense has been exposed
the last couple of weeks, those are passing yards they
gave up. They gave up five hundred and sixty yards
to Clemson three eighty five passing. They gave up four
to sixty seven to Connecticut last game three hundred and
eleven passing. They also gave up five hundred and thirty
five yards earlier in the year to NC State three
hundred and sixty four yards passing. Since Virginia is not
going to be able to put type of pass numbers,
that has me leaning with the Duke.
Speaker 5: Blue Devils.
Speaker 1: Okay, we have a new member to the way to
Talk Family here on YouTube. Shout out to Mark Things
for joining a couple more questions for you. We've got
a question on what dogs that your look. Is there
anyone that you think is barking out their routh for us?
Speaker 4: Well, you know that's sort of a bizarre question. So
let me go through and try to pull out couple
that I lean with. I lean Arizona over Cincinnati. I lean.
Speaker 5: I like Navy plus the points against South Florida, Michigan,
Penn State.
Speaker 4: Let me mention this, Michigan State is five and zero
as a dog this year. Penn State oh and six
is a favorite that by itself is not a reason
to play this game. But I don't have faith that
Penn State's going to be able to pull that out.
So Michigan State is in that list as well.
Speaker 1: Okay, Brandon is asking about another dog here, Arkansas plus
the five versus LSU Any love for Arkansas?
Speaker 4: Yeah? I actually do like Arkansas. They were in my
mix too to be a play. And you know, it's
tough to back a team that has lost seven straight games.
I believe that they have, but they are still continuing
to play hard. You look at the last four they
had a yard to judge at Tennessee but lost by three.
They had a yarda judge against Texas A and M
by thirty yards and lost by three. They had a
yard to judge against Mississippi State and lost by three.
What's the theme, Well, they were minus three turnovers against
Auburn and minus three turnovers against Tennessee. If they don't
turn the ball over, you know they are going to
win this game handily. Taylor Green a nineteen to eight ratio,
But it's been the fumbles that have been surprising. But
I do think Arkansas gets it done and snaps at
losing streak.
Speaker 1: Okay, one more question on a late game out here
TCU versus BYU. We know this one opened at six.
Those lines dropped to there's a two and a half
for BYU right now on hard rock total fifty two
and a half still sitting right around fifty one to
fifty one and a half. Any thoughts on that one?
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, it's a game I threw out pretty early,
but you know, let me just run through the stats
that I do. I like comparing conference stats because you're
comition is much tougher or much closer.
Speaker 5: But tc US played a very weak schedule.
Speaker 4: If you look at the teams in the Big twelve
they've played, it's a very week and they're actually very
close stat wise the BYU on the season. BYUS played
a tougher schedule and they're number twenty nine in the
country plus one point three yards per play, where TCU
is under one point zero yards per play. Lightlying, but
Cougar's for me.
Speaker 1: Now, there is a question about Old Miss here from
Rin versus Florida. We know Art needs Old Miss to
come in and get the win. What are your thoughts
on this game?
Speaker 4: You know, I have not read Florida well all season,
and there are times when we get this late in
the season when you cannot read a team well, you
don't really look at the game. You know, Old Miss,
we know what we're gonna get. We know we're gonna
have a fast paced team. We know we have a
team that's gonna run and pass just about the same.
My concern is the Florida defense, which was stellar early
in the but we've seen them wear down down the
stretch four hundred and sixty eight yards against Mississippi State
four hundred and one yards. Obviously, you have a fast
paced team against a disappointed team losing late in the year.
I like those fast paced offenses to cover. But again
a game I did throw out early in the week,
so not much in depth work put in in the
second half of the week.
Speaker 1: Now we know Utah needs to come out and get
a big win versus Baylor. That line shot all the
way up to ten on Sports for one. One, do
you think Baylor has the possibility of playing an upset
role today?
Speaker 4: You know, I don't know if they'll pull the upset,
but I'm certainly not a fan of laying ten points
with Kyle Whittingham, so that does have me on the
Baylor side. You know, they beat Cincinnati by thirty one
points last week, so you can say, well, look they
do win and cover. They beat Colorado by forty six
points the week before. But you look at that Cincinnati game,
they only had a fifty three yard edge. It was
just a bunch of bad things that happened to him.
Baylor off a thirty three win against UCF, a very
solid win. They had almost a two hundred yard edge.
They are at home their road losses this year. Again,
they lost to Aubert at home. They lost Arizona State
at home. Both were close. I do lean the Baylor
Bears plus the points because Utah each of the last
two weeks they've run the ball for fifty plus times.
Tough to cover double digits if you're gonna slow the
game down by running that ball Arkansas's excuse me. Baylor's
rush defense on the season not the best along one
seventy eighty four point five, but I think they get
enough done to keep it close and cover the number.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm looking at Devin Dempierre to come out nie
and strong and run with his legs. In that one.
I took him over the fifty nine and a half
rushing yards just for you guys, the quarterback there for Utah.
There is a couple questions here on a Michigan versus Northwestern.
Michigan entering into Northwestern is a ten and a half
point favorite. Now on the majority of the books, that
total has gone out to forty two on.
Speaker 4: Some Yeah, this is you know, another game. This is
a at Wrigley Field. I remember watching the Buckeyes play
at Wrigley Field a couple of weeks ago.
Speaker 5: I do I am a Northwestern fan.
Speaker 4: This year, Yes, they got they got run over at
usc allowing four hundred and eighty two yards and three
hundred nine yards rush passing. But you look at him
at home. The Purdue nineteen nothing shut out impressed me.
The UCLA win looks a lot better than it is now. Yes,
this is not quite home. It is Wrigly. It's much
more exciting for the Chicago kids to be playing Wriggly
than it is for Michigan. No real opinion on the total,
but I think Northwestern does cover this game.
Speaker 1: Okay, Now, Ralph, was it you or was it Jeohnny
who did like East Carolina today?
Speaker 5: That was me?
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, that was you? I thought so so yeah, John,
those questions on East Carolina. Ralph has already answered that
he is liking them. Here one more from Rob. Should
you have a over between North Texas and UAB Well?
Speaker 4: I did not bet the total, but the only way
I would go is to bet that total over. You know,
you look at North Texas. The temple they play with
is amazing.
Speaker 5: You have.
Speaker 4: Let's see every game this year they've scored at least
thirty one points, and the thirty one their lowest was
against Navy last time because Navy ran the ball forty
four times. To me, the only way to go is over.
The number got a little too high for me though,
because North North Texas defense, which was horrible the middle
part of the year, has actually played very well the
last three games along about three hundred and seventy yards
per game.
Speaker 1: Okay, that's great information, Ralph. You're always coming with so
many great facts out there. If people are headed over
to asiatalk dot com to buy your Weekend Warrior package,
which is just the best deal. If you're looking for
football this weekend, what can people expect? How many plays
do you have in today?
Speaker 4: I have four college football plays. I still may throw
up a college basketball again. If you get the Weekend Warrior,
you're not gonna get hoops. But Joe, let me actually
tell you this. This is probably the only time where
the Weekend Warriors not the best feel. Okay, we have
we have a ten day special for ninety nine dollars, right,
so the Weekend Warriors forty nine and the ten day
package would cover this weekend and next week in a
football plus, you're gonna get Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday,
and NBA, NHL and college basketball, so all sports. Any
campera wager Talk, a seven day package is normally ninety
nine dollars. This week that package is now ten days
for the same ninety nine dollars. So it's like getting
two weekend Warriors over the lat next two weekends and
getting all those other sports plus midweek for free.
Speaker 1: Ralph, I absolutely love it. You guys want to head
on over to wager talk dot com get that ten
day pass for just ninety nine dollars. Four plays already
loaded a four college football today, maybe one more to come. Ralph,
I hope you dominate crush the books today.
Speaker 4: So best of luck, and hey, thanks to all the
new viewers today. It's always great seeing new people come
in and join us for the weekend shows.
Speaker 1: Appreciate it, absolutely all the best, Ralph. You guys head
on over to wagertalk dot com. Like ral was saying,
that ten day pass can't beat it. You're going to
get the next ten days for just ninety nine dollars.
Ralph has already four plays loaded on the college football slate.
We know there's so much going on across all sports,
so it's going to be a great day out there
for Week twelve. Let us know who you're liking if
you got any touchdown props in any of these games.
Four Week twelve, I think we're in for some exciting
matchups out there. Like I told you guys, I am
relying on Arch manning over one and a half passing
touchdowns up plus one fifty four I got it, and
over two hundred and twenty and a half passing yards.
I know he's going up against the sound defense here
in Georgia, but I think Arch has to be the
man if Texas is going to cover that original six
and a half. I'm all liking the utah Utes laying
the points. I think Devin denpr comes out nice and strong.
I do agree with Ralph that this should be a
lower scoring game because you look at Utah, They're are
gonna take their time. I don't trust Robinson on the
other side. He's either firing and he's hitting his receivers
out there, or he's turning that ball over. And I
think the utah Utes have the ability to get those
turnovers on the board. And that's the only thing that
does worry me about that total is a pick six
could result in this one going over that total. But
I think Utah stays alive in the Big twelve race.
We got a big game there. You guys all the
best in all of your bets today. I appreciate each
and every single one of you for being here. If
you can hit that like button, I'd greatly appreciate and
hit the notification about the subscribe button over here on
YouTube if you're not already, because there's so much great
free content dropping here on the daily now. Ariel will
be in tomorrow for your last call talking NFL, and
Kelly will be back here next Saturday, so i'll be
like on Monday and Thursday night with your primetime preview
last call going into those games at seven pm Eastern.
I'll see you then. I appreciate each and every single
one of you. Have a great day. Until next time,
stay hot and let's make some freaking money.