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Speaker 1: What's going on?

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Speaker 2: Thank you so much for listening to this podcast. It

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is heard live every day from noon to three on

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WBT Radio in Charlotte. And if you want exclusive content

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like invitations to events, the weekly live stream, my daily

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show prep with all the links, become a patron, go

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to thepeteclendershow dot com. Make sure you hit the subscribe button.

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Get every episode for free right to your smartphone or tablet.

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And again, thank you so much for your support. Pete

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Calender Here and as we do on Tuesdays at noon,

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we speak with Andrew Dunn. He is the publisher of

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long Leaf Politics longleafpol dot com and contributing columnist over

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at the Charlotte Observer. We don't hold that against him, though, Andrew,

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how are you, sir?

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Speaker 3: Oh, I'm fantastic. It's great to be back with you.

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Speaker 1: Yes, sir, glad to talk with you again.

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Speaker 2: I read your piece and by the way, I apologize,

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I did not realize I was not a subscriber to

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your newsletter. I have remedied that this morning. So yeah,

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I know, I was like, why am I Like? Why

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can't I get access to this thing that I'm trying

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to get access to? And I realized, oh, I've never

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paid him, so So anyway, I was interested in the

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piece that you wrote the people who stay Win, and

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I guess this was prompted by a podcast that you

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were listening to. And there's a young Presbyterian guy, he's

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a podcaster and he's named Redeemed Zoomer, and he said

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that the Liberals are the ones who kept the institutions,

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the Conservatives are the ones who ran away. And he

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talked about this pattern is not just in churches, and

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he called it retreatism, which is a good word for it,

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I think, and it reminded me of the split I

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covered this, I guess last year with the United Methodist

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Church as well. And it gets to something that Jordan

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Peterson has talked about, where you have a storehouse of value.

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If left unguarded, it will be devoured, it will be

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taken over. And that's essentially what this guy and I

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guess you are arguing as well.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and what you were describing with the United Methodist

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Church is exactly what he was talking about on the

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Theology podcast. But yeah, I mean when I heard that,

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I immediately saw the pattern in so many other places

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in my life, you know, I'm a leader in the

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Boy Scouts, and we've seen a lot of the same

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things happening there. As the institution has changed, a lot

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of the big former partners with the Scouts have decided

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to just leave and start their own thing. And I

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think we see it in politics too, especially with the

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rise of unaffiliated voters. I think a lot of people

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are saying, oh, well, I don't you know, the Republican

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Party doesn't represent me anymore, the Democratic Party doesn't represent

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me anymore, and instead of actually trying to dig in

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and fix things that, they just decide to heck with

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it and quit.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 2: So then, and you raise the point, what is left

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when people who you know, arguably they get frustrated?

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Speaker 1: Right?

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Speaker 2: And I totally get that. I'm an unaffiliated voter and

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I enjoy going into each of the party primaries and

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having my pick. Based on where I live. I usually

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don't get a Republican primary. So, but what's left when

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people leave is the institution and all of that stored value,

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the credibility, the reputation, right, the legacy, it's history, all

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of that is now turned over to basically your opponents.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 3: Oh yeah, that's exactly right. You know, the institutions aren't

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built overnight, and they you know, they build up goodwill,

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they build up trust, they build up name recognition, and

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that doesn't leave. Even if you know, the most talented

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or the most or the smartest people leave. You know

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that that will not translate to a new thing that

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anyone is starting. You know, some some of the name

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recognition will go, but most of it, most of the

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trust remains with the institution. And that's why I think

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it's so important for people of goodwill, people who are

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you know, civically minded, why it's so important to stick

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around and to and to focus their efforts on fixing

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and rebuilding institutions.

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Speaker 2: You mentioned school choice as well, What what impact does

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I mean people COVID prompted a lot of parents to

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pull their kids out of the school system. And again

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rightfully so, I think when they you know, look on

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in horror and shock at what their kids are being taught,

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and they go down to the school board meetings and

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they try to you know, vote in new school board members,

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and they just can't succeed at effectuating change, and so

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they they leave. They go to charter schools, private schools,

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They use the voucher system, and what's left behind, though,

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is a public school system that is now shaped by

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people you write, with different priorities or no real interest

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in reform at all.

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Speaker 1: So I guess my question though, is.

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Speaker 2: Like, isn't that the only way to teach the lesson

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that they have gone too far in the way they

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drove education to the extreme, and how else do you, of.

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Speaker 3: Course work a little bit. Yeah, that one's a little

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bit trickier, especially, you know, because I don't fall individual

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families for leaving the public school system if it's not

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serving them, because you don't really have the time when

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you're raising children to you know, slowly wait for things

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to improve and work through the system. You have to

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do what's right for your child in that moment because

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you don't have any any time to waste. However, I

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will say, you know, I think the inclination for so

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many people on the conservative side is to just sale

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abandoned the public school system, you know, to basically just

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say this is never going to get any better and

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to focus efforts on private schools, charter schools, that sort

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of thing. And I think that would be a mistake.

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So I don't think it's a mistake for parents and

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individual families to take that route. But I do think

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it would be a mistake for conservatives at large to

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do the same thing.

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Speaker 2: Do you think that this retreatism is evident in moving patterns?

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That's one of the first things I thought of was,

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you know, Charlotte gets bluer and all of the surrounding

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counties get redder. It's a pattern that's happening all over

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the country. Do you think that's the same thing.

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Speaker 3: Oh gosh, I hadn't even thought about that, but I

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think you're absolutely right. You know, the geographic polarization, I

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guess is the fancy way to put it, but yeah,

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I mean that's exactly what we're seeing, is that people

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are trying to find like minded communities and moving to

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what's the values. I think that's exactly part of the

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same pattern.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, speaking of that, you've got a piece at the

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Charlotte Observer headline, North Carolina Republicans are leaning into Trump

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flavored politics.

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Speaker 1: Do you write the headlines or does somebody else do

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that for you?

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Speaker 3: I do not write that, so that that wasn't mine,

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But but I don't actually don't think that one's too bad.

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Speaker 2: No, No, I just just odd Trump flavored, Like I

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don't even want to taste that North Carolina. North Carolina

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Republicans are not just navigating national politics anymore. They're leaning

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into it on purpose. And I guess like we used to.

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I mean, I think we're about the same age. I

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grew up hearing, you know, all politics is local, but

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now it doesn't seem to be the case. And I

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think that's really what you're kind of talking about here,

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is that then the parties have become more and more nationalized.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's exactly right. And you know, North Carolina has

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long been a classic example of that. You know, North

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Carolina Democrats in particular always had their own brands so

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to speak, that was way different from the national brand.

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And that really started to change in two thousand and eight,

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when you know, Barack Obama carried North Carolina. I think

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that was a real turning point, when the North Carolina

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Democratic brand essentially became part you know, or a subset

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of the national brands. And Republicans seem to be hitting

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that tipping point this year. You know, I think, you know,

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Trump carrying the state for the third time, you know,

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his approval ratings being you know, they've been fluctuating, but

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they've been pretty pretty good by Trump's standards. And I

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think North Carolina Republicans are deciding, you know, now's the

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time to go all in and lean into some of

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the messaging and branding that the national Party's put out.

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Speaker 2: So you say turning every race into a national referendum

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might help with fundraising. I believe it likely does, right

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because you've got so much money that comes in from

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out of state to a swing state. You say, it

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might clarify internal identity, but it also brings trade offs.

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So what are some of the trade offs.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean one of the trade offs is you

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are a lot of your ability to win now becomes

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tied to national trends that you don't really have any

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control over. You know, there's always some sort of coat

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tail effect. You know, if the top of the ticket

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is doing really well or doing really poorly, that does

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still over down the ballot. But you know, North Carolina

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is no stranger to split ticket voting, and there's plenty

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of voters in North Carolina who are willing, you know,

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to thread the needle and to vote one way nationally

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in another way more locally. So. But if you're tying

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your brand to the national level, that your ability to nuance,

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that really goes away. But you know, as a as

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a life along North Carolinian, I just I worry more

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so from a philosophical standpoint. You know what, we lose

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our political distinctiveness, lose our you know, our barbecue battles,

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all of the things that make North Carolina home kind

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of get washed out and just focusing on national messaging.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, sort of like franchises everywhere, no more mom and.

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Speaker 1: Pop shops exactly. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Andrew Dunn, publisher of long Leaf Politics, you can do

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what I did. Become a subscriber over at long leafpol

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dot com. He's also a contributing columnist to The Charlotte Observer.

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Andrew always going to talk with you.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for your time, man, Yeah, thank you. Take care.

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Speaker 2: Here's a great idea. How about making an escape to

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a really special and secluded getaway in western North Carolina?

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Just a quick drive up the mountain and cabins of Asheville.

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Speaker 1: Is your connection.

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Speaker 2: Whether you're celebrating an anniversary, a honeymoon, maybe you want

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to plan a memorable proposal, or get family and friends

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together for a big old reunion. Cabins of Asheville has

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the ideal spot for you where you can reconnect with

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your loved ones and the things that truly matter. Nestled

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within the breath taking fourteen thousand acres of the Pisga

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National Forest, their cabins offer a serene escape in the

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heart of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Centrally located between Ashville

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and the entrance of the Great Smoky Mountain National Park.

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It's the perfect balance of seclusion and proximity to all

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the local attractions with hot tubs, fireplaces, air conditioning, smart TVs,

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Wi Fi, grills, outdoor tables and your own private covered porch.

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Choose from thirteen cabins, six cottages, two villas, and a

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great lodge with eleven king sized bedrooms. Cabins of Ashville

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they have pet friendly accommodations. Call or text eight two

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all there is to offer at Cabins Offashville dot com

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and make memories that'll last a lifetime. So I read

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this story at the AP, not AP Dylan, but the

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Associated Press, and I swear I thought this was from

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North Carolina. I went right past the date line on it.

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But it's out of Paintsville, Kentucky, birthplace of paint and

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they're doing what they call they being the state Democrat Party.

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They are doing a rural listening tour, which, as far

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as I can tell, is basically just a wine fest

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wh just a complain upon. But it also sounds like

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what the North Carolina Democrat Party has been. I mean,

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at least that's what they say they've been trying to do.

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Go around the state, say y'all a lot, cuss a bunch,

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and then something something we don't know, and then you

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win all the Trump voters back right.

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Speaker 1: Trump got eighty.

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Speaker 2: Five percent of the presidential vote in Johnson County, Kentucky,

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where Paintsville is the county seat. Okay, that was the

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latest stop on the state party's rural listening tour. A

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periodic effort, periodic effort, so it's not a constant thing.

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It's just every now and again, when we remember there's

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some rural areas, we'll head over there. It's a periodic

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effort to visit overwhelmingly white, culturally conservative towns of the

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kind where Democrats once competed and Republicans now dominate nationally.

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Democrats path back to power. By the way, this is

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always entertaining. These types of stories are always entertaining to

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read because they're always written as sort of this like

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a pep speech. You know, I buck up. You know, Democrats,

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here's how you get back into the majority. Here's how

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you can win again. And we're just completely impartial reporters

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offering this information to you. Democrats path back to power

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may start here, one small meeting at a time, because

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it will be difficult, if not impossible, for the party

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to regain US Senate control or win the presidency without

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compete harder for rural and small town voters. I have

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been talking about this since Donald Trump came down the

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Golden escalator. There is a political realignment happening among both parties,

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and it is bad for Democrats. I've got post mortems

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or autopsies, if you will. Got one from Catalyst, You

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got one from the New York Times, this one from

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the AP. Some projections the Associated Press reports. Some projections

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suggest Democrats would lose twelve seats in the electoral College

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in the next census. That's the path they are on

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right now. They've got five years right, five years before

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the census, and they're on a path to lose twelve

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seats in the electoral College and that will make it

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virtually impossible for them to win the presidency. The gut

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check this is according to Coleman Elridge, the Kentucky Democrat chair.

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The gut check is we'd stopped having these conversations in

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white rural America. No really, nobody noticed, except like everybody

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who lives in white rural America, that you quit talking

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to them. And not only that, he started saying some

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pretty mean things about them. Nationally, Trump won sixty percent

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of small town and rural voters in twenty twenty, and

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he increased that according to AP vote cast data, he

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went from sixty percent in twenty twenty up to sixty

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three percent small town rural voters. So what are the

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people saying at the listening tour, Well, they're saying a lot.

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They're listening to like the most activated members of the

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moon Back Brigade. That's who they're hearing, Which is why

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I don't think this effort is going to be successful.

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For example, Sandra Music, that's her last name. She is

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a retired teacher. I don't know if she taught music

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or not, but that would be awesome. Missus music the

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music teacher, Like, how awesome would that be? Anyway, she's

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a retired teacher. She calls herself a new Democrat and

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she converted because of Donald Trump. Okay, so she's a

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never Trumper. She was so angry at the Republican Party

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and nominating him, and so then she became a Democrat.

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She bemoaned conservative's success in advancing private school tuition voucher

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programs and said they were threatening a public education system meant.

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Speaker 1: To ensure we educate everybody.

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Speaker 2: She criticized Republicans for making a caricature of Democrats, saying, quote,

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they want to pull out keywords abortion, transgender, boys and

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girls' sports, and that distracts from the rest of the

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Republican agenda. She said, yeah, no, the reason why those

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items get pulled out is because you guys have taken

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a position that is not shared by like eighty percent

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of the voting public. And so when you see the field,

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when you retreat away from a popular position, then yes,

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Republicans are going to use that issue to beat you

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up with. Then there's Janet Lynn Stumbo, a former state

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Supreme Court judge. She lamented what she called the right

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word lurch of the state and federal courts. Yeah, that's

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what's happening, she says. We're going to suffer irreparable damage

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if we don't stop these conservative idiots. This is the

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messaging that the listeners on the listening tour are receiving.

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So I do not expect the messaging to change. This

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is all that they're hearing when they go to these towns.

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Choir meat preacher. All right, if you're listening to this show,

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you know I try to keep up with all sorts

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00:18:11,319 --> 00:18:13,319
of current events, and I know you do too, And

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you've probably heard me say get your news from multiple sources.

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00:18:17,319 --> 00:18:20,599
Why Well, because it's how you detect media bias, which

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00:18:20,640 --> 00:18:23,559
is why I've been so impressed with ground News. It's

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00:18:23,640 --> 00:18:27,079
an app and it's a website and it combines news

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00:18:27,119 --> 00:18:29,039
from around the world in one place so you can

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00:18:29,079 --> 00:18:32,440
compare coverage and verify information. You can check it out

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00:18:32,480 --> 00:18:37,079
at check dot ground, dot news slash Pete. I put

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00:18:37,079 --> 00:18:40,039
the link in the podcast description too. I started using

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00:18:40,079 --> 00:18:43,000
ground News a few months ago and more recently chose

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00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:44,960
to work with them as an affiliate because it lets

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00:18:45,000 --> 00:18:48,599
me see clearly how stories get covered and by whom.

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00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:51,839
The blind spot feature shows you which stories get ignored

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00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:54,799
by the left and the right. See for yourself. Check

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00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:59,359
dot Ground, dot news slash pete. Subscribe through that link

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00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:02,039
and you'll get fit fifteen percent off any subscription. I

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00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:05,480
use the Vantage plan to get unlimited access to every feature.

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00:19:05,680 --> 00:19:08,440
Your subscription then not only helps my podcast, but it

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00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:11,640
also supports Ground News as they make the media landscape

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00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:15,759
more transparent. Reading from this Associated Press story about the

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listening tour that Kentucky Democrats are engaged in throughout the

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rural counties, and they show up and basically it's just

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a bunch of like the most ardent leftists that turn

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out to these little sessions and they just complain about

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Donald Trump and conservatives, and Alan says it's a pet tweet.

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Alan says, oh, look, a teacher and a judge are quoted.

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Is anybody buying the old I used to be Republican,

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but Trump despite all my lefty beliefs poop, I don't

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think that ever worked. It's just part of the left

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fooling themselves, buying their own bs. Yeah, high on their

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own supply. Well, here's another one, Michael Halfhill, who works

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in healthcare information technology, and he just couldn't understand why

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all of these people are voting against themselves. What comes

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through in all of these comments is contempt and disdain

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for people voting away that you don't want them to vote.

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That's what comes through from these people that are assembling

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at the rural listening tour stops. The chairman of the

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Democrat Party, this guy named Elridge. He of course makes

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the case that you know, racism, because obviously you got

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to make that case.

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Speaker 1: He says.

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Speaker 2: This is where Trump and Maga excel. If somebody who

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looks like me, he's black. If someone who looks like

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me is your enemy, then you don't care if the

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guy in the White House is paying on your leg

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and telling you it's rain. See, that's the only reason

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that anybody voted for Trump, even all of the black

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voters and Hispanic voters that have now shifted. And that's

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in one of these post mortems. Well, it's actually in

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all of them. And this is what has Democrats very concerned.

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Republicans say their Democrat caricature is accurate. Bill Mike Runyon,

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that's his name. Bill Mike Runyon, a self described conservative

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Republican who is the mayor of Paintsville. He loves Trump.

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He went immediately to social and cultural commentary when asked

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in an interview to explain Johnson County politics. So, in

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other words, he answered your question ap AP news right.

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You asked him tell me about Johnson County politics, and

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he started talking about social and cultural commentary, and you

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just sort of like dismissed this away, like, oh, he

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immediately turned to those things because maybe that's what the

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local politics is about. Democrats, he said, have to get

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away from the far left radical look at the transgender message.

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He says, everything got kind of racial as well. It's

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not like that here in Paintsville and in Johnson County,

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but I can see it as a country. It's making

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people more racist against one another. He's telling you, he

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is telling you why people are abandoning your party and

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you're not listening on your listening tour. When asked specifically

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who he was talking about, he alluded to progressive US

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representatives Alexandria A Caso Cortes, a Latina from New York City,

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and Jasmine Crockett, a black woman from Texas, it's the

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ones you always see on TV. The mayor said, again,

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what is he telling you? He is telling you that

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these far left progressives are the brand ambassadors for your party.

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That's what he's telling you. You don't have to listen

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to him, but that's what he's telling you.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: One bright spot for the Kentucky Democrats is Andy Basher,

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the governor. He's a Nepo baby, kind of like his

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dad was, you know, longtime governor. I think as well.

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And he seems to be the one Democrat who commands

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wide respect in and around Paintsville. Multiple Republicans, including the mayor,

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complimented Basher for his handling of floods and other disasters

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in the region. Right competence during disaster and the recovery

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efforts breeds goodwill and support across party lines. Right, just

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doing your job, he said, Andy Basheer is not like

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those national Democrats. This is the mayor of Paintsville. And

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he said Bill Clinton wasn't like these Democrats.

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Speaker 1: Today.

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Speaker 2: They are telling you what you are doing to drive

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them away. You are supposedly on a listening tour. Maybe

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you should listen. Vox dot com piece by Eric Levittz

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the latest autopsy on the Democrats loss comes courtesy of Catalyst,

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a Democrat data firm with a widely coveted voter database.

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00:24:16,839 --> 00:24:20,240
The firm tracks the actual voting behavior of two hundred

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and fifty six million Americans across all fifty states in Washington,

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d c. In other words, they're not relying purely on

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surveys of how people said they would vote, but also

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00:24:32,279 --> 00:24:37,000
they have hard data showing which party individual voters registered

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with and which elections they did and did not show

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00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:46,680
up for. Catalyst boasts the longest running voter database of

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00:24:46,759 --> 00:24:51,720
any institution besides the Democrat and Republican parties. It has

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00:24:51,799 --> 00:24:56,440
tracked the electorate's behavior for over fifteen years. The three

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00:24:56,519 --> 00:24:59,920
big takeaways here from at least as reported by Vox.

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Number one, Democrats did not lose because they failed to

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00:25:06,079 --> 00:25:12,440
turn out the progressive base. Number two, young voters shifted right,

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00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:19,200
and number three non white voters got redder. All right,

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00:25:19,319 --> 00:25:22,599
So spring is here a time of renewal and celebrations.

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00:25:22,799 --> 00:25:26,400
You've got graduations, weddings, anniversaries and the special days for

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00:25:26,519 --> 00:25:28,839
mom and dad. Your family's making memories that are going

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00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:31,279
to last a lifetime. But let me ask you are

413
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all of those treasured moments from days gone by? Are

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they hidden away on old VCR tapes, eight millimeter films,

415
00:25:38,039 --> 00:25:42,400
photos slides? Are they preserved? Because over time these precious

416
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memories can fade and deteriorate, losing the magic of yesterday.

417
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At Creative Video, they help you protect what matters most.

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Their expert team digitizes your cherished family moments and transfers

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them onto a USB drive, freezing them in time so

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they can be enjoyed for generations to come. I urge

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you do not wait until it's too late this spring,

422
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celebrate your past. Visit Creative Video today and let them

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in mint Hill, just off four eighty five. Mail orders

426
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are accepted to get all the details that create a

427
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video dot com. Here's a pet tweet from Moral Compass,

428
00:26:24,279 --> 00:26:29,279
who says, Republicans, this is the voice of Republicans, talk

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00:26:29,319 --> 00:26:35,880
about winning issues for them. Democrats reply, stop talking about that. Yeah,

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00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:40,640
it's not the messaging, it's the message. So, according to

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00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:45,519
Catalyst and their autopsy of the twenty twenty four election

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00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:50,599
number one, Democrats did not lose because they failed to

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00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:54,759
turn out the progressive base. So the thinking on this

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00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:59,680
copium goes like this, that Trump didn't win. He didn't

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00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:04,480
prevail because he won over a decisive share of swing voters. No, no, no,

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00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:10,119
he won because Democrats didn't mobilize America's anti MAGA majority.

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00:27:11,319 --> 00:27:15,160
That's what really happened, That's what they're telling themselves. Many

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00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:24,559
on the left attribute that failure to Kamala Harris's centrism.

439
00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:27,720
Good lord, yeah, that's what it was. She was such

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00:27:27,759 --> 00:27:31,839
a centrist. Had she not taken her party's base for granted,

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00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:36,240
she could have ridden high Democratic turnout to victory. The evidence, though,

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00:27:36,279 --> 00:27:39,359
for this view, has always been very weak. According to

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00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:45,880
vox dot com, the catalyst data makes it obviously false. Now,

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00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:49,519
one hundred and twenty six million Americans cast a ballot

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00:27:49,559 --> 00:27:53,000
in both the twenty twenty and twenty twenty four elections.

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00:27:53,440 --> 00:28:00,000
They call these repeat voters. Biden won fifty one points

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00:28:00,079 --> 00:28:04,200
six percent of repeat voters in twenty twenty. Harris only

448
00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:08,680
won forty nine point four percent. Meanwhile, there were twenty

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00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:13,160
six million new voters. Democrats have historically won new voters

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00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:17,759
by very comfortable margins, largely because young Americans were overwhelmingly

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00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:22,119
left leaning in two thousand and eight, twenty twelve, twenty sixteen,

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00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:28,000
and twenty twenty. But last year Trump won new voters

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00:28:28,559 --> 00:28:34,279
by about three points. Democrats shirly saw weaker turnout than

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00:28:34,319 --> 00:28:38,559
Republicans last year, and this was partly responsible for Harris's loss.

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It says later, But Democrats do need to try to

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00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:45,920
mobilize their coalition's most unreliable members. They just can't do

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00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:50,079
so at the expense of winning over swing voters. Unreliable

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00:28:50,200 --> 00:28:56,319
Democrat leaners tend to be politically disengaged and ideologically heterodox,

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00:28:56,599 --> 00:29:01,759
much like many swing voters. So that's the first thing,

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00:29:01,839 --> 00:29:04,759
the excuse that can be put to bed. It was

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00:29:04,839 --> 00:29:08,160
not a matter of turning out, not getting your progressive

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00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:13,720
base out. They came out number two. Young voters shifted right.

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Like ap Vote cast and Blue Rose Research Catalyst finds

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00:29:18,799 --> 00:29:23,039
that younger voters were significantly more Republican in twenty twenty

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00:29:23,039 --> 00:29:26,680
four than they had been in twenty twenty. Biden won

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00:29:26,799 --> 00:29:31,119
sixty one percent of those under thirty years old. Harris

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00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:35,839
didn't get sixty one, she got fifty five. This decline

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00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:41,319
was driven almost entirely by dudes. Harris won sixty three

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00:29:41,359 --> 00:29:45,039
percent of women under the age of thirty. That was

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00:29:45,039 --> 00:29:48,720
still three points lower than Biden, but she only won

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forty six percent of men under the age of thirty,

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that is nine points worse than Biden got, so she

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lost young voters young men specifically. Finally, non white voters

474
00:30:05,440 --> 00:30:09,279
got redder. Harris actually won the same share of the

475
00:30:09,359 --> 00:30:13,480
white vote that Barack Obama had, and her support among

476
00:30:13,559 --> 00:30:18,079
America's white majority was only two points lower than Biden's.

477
00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:23,000
But like previous twenty twenty four autopsies catalysts, report finds

478
00:30:23,039 --> 00:30:27,920
that Democrats suffered steeper losses with non white voters, particularly

479
00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:35,200
those who were young, male, and or politically disengaged. Harris

480
00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:39,000
won eighty five percent of black voters, that is down

481
00:30:39,119 --> 00:30:43,480
four points from Biden's eighty nine percent, and that drop

482
00:30:43,799 --> 00:30:51,799
was entirely due to flagging support from black men. I've

483
00:30:51,799 --> 00:30:56,920
been saying this for twenty years, folks. When the Democrat

484
00:30:56,960 --> 00:30:59,839
Party no longer is able to carry ninety percent of

485
00:31:00,119 --> 00:31:04,559
the black vote, they will not win the presidency again.

486
00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:10,839
That's why that's why they're constantly focused on race. They're

487
00:31:10,839 --> 00:31:14,559
constantly trying to keep people agitated about it. You know,

488
00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:16,559
you can't trust those Republicans. They're going to put you

489
00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:21,160
back in chains. To quote Joe Biden. Democrats suffered especially

490
00:31:21,279 --> 00:31:24,920
large losses, with young black men winning only seventy five

491
00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:27,359
percent of their ballots in twenty twenty four compared to

492
00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:32,039
eighty five percent in twenty twenty. The trends among Latino

493
00:31:32,160 --> 00:31:35,960
voters were similar. Between twenty twenty and twenty twenty four,

494
00:31:36,559 --> 00:31:40,240
Latino support for the Democrat nominee dropped from sixty three

495
00:31:40,279 --> 00:31:46,279
percent down to fifty four percent. The decline among Latino

496
00:31:46,400 --> 00:31:51,759
men particularly pronounced as Trump won a fifty three percent

497
00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:57,880
majority of that historically Democrat constituency. Trump won fifty three

498
00:31:57,960 --> 00:32:03,960
percent of Hispanic men. Support among young Latino men fell

499
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:07,599
off a cliff, and the party lost even more ground

500
00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:11,720
with men Latino men under the age of thirty. Finally,

501
00:32:11,759 --> 00:32:14,119
Harris won only sixty one percent of Asian American and

502
00:32:14,119 --> 00:32:20,279
Pacific Islander votes in twenty twelve. Obama over Romney. He

503
00:32:20,359 --> 00:32:24,279
carried that population seventy four to twenty six percent, And

504
00:32:24,799 --> 00:32:28,640
men in this group are leaving the Democrat coalition faster

505
00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:31,680
than their female counterparts. You take all this together, the

506
00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:36,640
figures paint a disconcerting picture for Democrats. The party has

507
00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:40,279
long wagered that time was on its side, since America's

508
00:32:40,359 --> 00:32:43,559
rising generations were heavily left leaning and the country was

509
00:32:43,599 --> 00:32:46,599
becoming more diverse by the year. The thought was it

510
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:51,039
would become gradually easier for Democrats to assemble national majorities

511
00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:55,319
even as the party bled support among non college educated

512
00:32:55,359 --> 00:33:00,400
white voters. And it's true Democrats still do better with

513
00:33:00,599 --> 00:33:04,160
young and non white voters than with Americans as a whole.

514
00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:07,720
That's still true, but the party's advantage with those constituencies

515
00:33:07,759 --> 00:33:13,599
has been narrowing rapidly. Last year's returns suggest that demographic

516
00:33:13,759 --> 00:33:18,119
churn isn't quite the boon that many Democrats had hoped,

517
00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:22,319
and can be easily outweighed by other factors. Also, as

518
00:33:22,359 --> 00:33:26,240
blue states bleed population to red ones, Democrats are poised

519
00:33:26,319 --> 00:33:28,599
to have a much harder time winning the electoral college

520
00:33:28,640 --> 00:33:32,279
majorities after the twenty thirty census. Given current trends. By

521
00:33:32,359 --> 00:33:36,720
twenty thirty two, a Democratic nominee who won every blue

522
00:33:36,759 --> 00:33:41,839
state and added Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania would still lose

523
00:33:42,079 --> 00:33:46,160
the White House. All right, that'll do it for this episode.

524
00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:47,599
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for listening.

525
00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:49,839
Speaker 2: I could not do the show without your support and

526
00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:52,599
the support of the businesses that advertise on the podcast,

527
00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:55,039
so if you'd like, please support them too and tell

528
00:33:55,079 --> 00:33:56,799
them you heard it here. You can also become a

529
00:33:56,799 --> 00:33:59,640
patron at my Patreon page or go to the Pete

530
00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:02,400
callum Our show dot com. Again, thank you so much

531
00:34:02,400 --> 00:34:05,599
for listening, and don't break anything while I'm gone.