Speaker 1: All right, welcome in everyone. It's Wednesday. It's time for
Total Bases. This is your Major League Baseball Deep Dive
show on the ways you're talking YouTube channel. Free picks,
We'll get you some free picks. We got a nice
a few free picks. Yesterday, Guys Parlay was a winner
Clubs one, Guardians one.
Speaker 2: Bryan's first five under one.
Speaker 1: Easily to put us back in the plus on the
parlay for the year.
Speaker 2: Want to stress how impressive I think that is.
Speaker 1: We've been doing a three team parlay every day since
April and we're ahead. So who says you can't win
betting Parlay's Ryan Leonardo, you know, even though that's what
they like to tell you. But we still have some
season to go. I'm sure it's gonna get tougher as
we get to the playoffs. So let's build ourselves a
cushion and try to hit another one today.
Speaker 2: I want to hit a.
Speaker 1: Couple of these games that are you know, I guess
big implication games. I talked to someone, I responded to
someone in the comments yesterday and they said, why'd you
spend eight minutes on Marlin's Nats? And I said, we're
sports betters. Every game is a big game. There's no
game that's less big than a different one. Because if
your money's on it, it's a big game. I don't know,
it could be you know, it could be pee wee.
Speaker 2: Football, Brian.
Speaker 1: If you're betting on it, it matters. So we're gonna,
you know, we'll hit what you guys put.
Speaker 2: In the chat.
Speaker 1: But I'm going to appease the masses that want to
talk big games. And I'm going to start in the
AL in the American League, where we have the Houston
Astros trying to hang on to a division lead that
suddenly the Rangers have put themselves in the conversation for
and they're going to take on the Toronto Blue Jays
who are fighting tooth and nail to hold off the Yankees.
And huge result for them last night. They looked lifeless
for eight innings and they steal it, tied up in
the ninth, steal it in the tenth. Big win for
the Blue Jays, especially with the Yankees getting bombed by
the Tigers. So let's talk Astros, Blue Jays, any thoughts
on the respective division. I gave out Rangers twelve to
one on a free pick video yesterday to win the aos.
I kind of feel good about myself after how yesterday
played out. But what about you any talk on the
divisions and then do a breakdown Astros Blue Jay Spores.
Speaker 3: Yeah, the Rangers are up to twenty two point seven
percent to win that division. You know, it's interesting the Rangers,
assuming the Afros, have a one game division lead over
the Mariners, yet they got less of a chance to
make the playoffs. They're currently at seventy nine point one,
where the Mariners are at eighty six point four. And
the reason is, if you take a look at the
home games, Houston's played five more home games than Seattle
has and we're to the point now where you've got
about seventeen games left in the season. So Seattle is
going to have five more home games in Houston the
rest of the way out. So a lot of people
pay attention to the games behind, but pay attention to
the rest of the stuff on the schedule and see
who you're playing. And so actually the Houston team, even
though they got that one game lead, has less of
a chance to make the playoffs. You get Alexander going
against Barrios right here, Burrios about a one twenty eight
maybe a one thirty favorite total of nine. Jason Alexander
is four and one on the season. He seems to
get some good run support when he pitches. Four point
six eighty RA, four point sixty six expected A one
point three nine whip. The whip's pretty bad. In fact,
all his numbers are pretty bad. If you take a
look at his tack cast page, first percent ile chase rate,
nine percent hard hit rate, throws. Basically, he's got six pitches.
He only throws his cutter one percent of the time,
but his four mmer is only ninety two point one
miles an hour. He only throws a ten percent, so
he's learned to pitch without it, but his other pitches
have not been that impressive. Jose Burials a guy that
always seems to outplay his advanced stats. Four point h
two eras won. He's nine to five on the season,
sixteen to eleven last year, so he's has some pretty
good win loss numbers for Toronto, and though win loss
is probably the least important number out of all of them.
Four point zh two ERA, four point seven to expected,
one point two nine whip, also a lot of blue.
The only thing he's better than league average in is
chase rate fifty second percent, walk rate fifty third. So
he's the guy that can get hit. Also throws five
pitches as four seen were only eighteen percent of the time,
two miles an hour less than a normal right hand er.
So we got two guys here that I think can
get hit, and we've got Houston team that's pretty desperate.
But you know, so is Toronto. They got the Yankees
right on them there, and as you mentioned, Trig that
you think the Yankees a while back, you said they
were going to pass them. They're playing a lot better ball,
although they didn't work out for him yesterday, but I
would not be surprised by that at all. Uh So
we're getting the Toronto about a one thirty favorite. I
prefer Toronto slightly, but I don't really want to lay
a number that size. If I could get a one twenty,
I believe it opens my Pinnacle's got a one twenty
five right now. But if it got down to one twenty,
I may be interested in Toronto, But anything more than that,
I gotta take a second look at it. A lot
of these games today, it's getaway day on just about
every team in the American excuse me, the National League,
but in the American League they're all continuing on, continuing on.
Tomorrow will be there getaway day. So there's a few
of those getaway days today and some of them are
during the day. Those are the ones that I like
to play the Unders on, but we'll get to those
a little bit later. As of right now, this is
probably a pass for me unless some money comes out
on Houston.
Speaker 4: Yeah, won the five dollars play yesterday the Cubs guys,
which I gave out on this show yesterday, and three
five percent plays this week, so MLB's going pretty well
for me. Go to waygetalk dot com and see what
we have available. I have already put my MLB slate
out for the day so you can catch that. I'm
sure these two gentlemen will have something up as well.
Free plays too, free plays galore. Go to Wagertalk dot
com and click free plays and you'll see them all.
Regarding this one, I do like Toronto's lineup a lot
better than Houston, and I do like their bullpen slightly
better than Houston. So starting pitching my numbers like Jason
Alexander from Seinfeld, but I don't like him at all.
And you look at his last few starts, He's given
up ten and runs in his last four starts. His
expected numbers are a lot better than his current numbers.
I just I still don't like him for some reason.
He doesn't pass my eye test looking at Barrios. So
with all those factors, normally my instinct as a Kappa
would be to lean towards the blue Jays. Now, if
I'm going to lean towards the Blue Jays, want to
check out the pitcher and how he does against this
team in his career, which is pretty good. He's got
pretty good numbers against them, one hundred and nine at
bats against, just a two twenty nine average against and
a six seventy six ops. And I know people in
the chat who have nothing better to do are going
to say, you're pronouncing his name wrong. It's Barrios, who cares,
Let's just win some money. And what bothers me is
his era at home is worse than it is on
the road. This park is a launching pad, lots of runs.
His last start, he gave up to earned in two innings.
I'm not sure do you guys know why he only
went two innings in his last.
Speaker 3: Start, I believe heured. I believe.
Speaker 4: I see he only gave up two runs and two innings.
It's not really normally a license to pull someone. But anyways,
so he did get rocked a little by the reds Uh.
He gave up two to the Marlins. Before that, he
gave up six to the Rangers zero and then three two, two, four.
So he's very inconsistent. So I just don't really feel
like doing it. If if Toronto had maybe Gussman on
the mound today, I would definitely back him. But Maria's
tough to trust in this spot. But if I bet it,
Toronto would be the way.
Speaker 1: Yeah, both Pitcher's tough to trust. If I bet it,
it's going to be the over. Because I don't agree
with that that nine reduced juice even I don't even
really agree with the nine flat. To be perfectly honest
with you, I make the number nine and a half
here obviously, as I talked about yesterday in a game
that ended up I think we talked about over nine
with the Nats Marlins. It ended up getting there pretty easily.
That nine flat is kind of key. So even though
it's only a half run if I make something nine
and a half and the totals nine, and in this
case it's actually a reduced nine, which means some sites
might give you the eight and a half at not
a terrible price. I gotta look to the over I'll
just i'll before I even get to the bullpens, there's
chances for runs of both starting pitchers. So the got
Jose Barrios bottom bottom ten percent in the league in
barrel rate. You know, just expected era's up near five.
Expected batting averages is over too sixty. There's runs to
be had there, in my opinion, especially with I know
the Astros get like have gotten some heat for their
their offensive production of late. This is still a lineup
that can be good and also can handle a guy
like like Barrios. On the other side, Jason Alexander, I'm
still not sure he's like a big league starter. I
know he's I know he's had some success this year.
But when I was kind of watching this, so he's
been in three different organizations now I believe I want
to say he spent time with the Brewers, the A's.
This is all within like the past year or two,
he was at Triple A with all three of them.
Never at any that I was I like, oh, this
guy's good, like really good at triple A, and so
now that he's had a little success in the big leagues,
it's that to me is a red flag for me personally.
Chase rate bottom one percent in the league, not good.
Hard hit rate bottom ten percent in the league, not good.
You know, throws ninety ninety one. It like, doesn't have
a plus fastball. He's another one of these guys like
four pitches, so he can mix it up a little bit,
but doesn't really have a plus pitch anywhere As Tokyo
Brandon said, the Blue Jays are still very strong lineup.
So while he can get away with that over maybe
the course of you know, like he can accumulate decent numbers,
he's probably a guy that's gonna get blown up at
some point, especially by a better lineup. It's just I
just don't see anything on his sort of resume, like
mix of pitches, what he does that the Blue Jays
can't handle. So those are two guys starters that I
think could get hit. Blue Jay's bullpen. I said, this
last week has been bad, like if you go if
you take their win streak out of it, which was
I think May through June you go back to like July.
Speaker 2: First, this is a bullpen.
Speaker 1: That's had like a like a five and a half
close to six e r. So again, can they give
up runs late? Of course, what did the Astros do yesterday?
They choked the game away late. That can carry over
a little bit, especially inside the same series, because suddenly
you know, no one, no one on the Blue Jays
is fearing anyone the Astros are gonna put out there
at the end of the game. They already got to
them once. So under over nine here seems like a
good bet. There's just there's just runs all through this,
this nine innings with these two teams and these two offenses.
Speaker 2: So I like the overnight. Sorry Bry go ahead.
Speaker 3: Yeah. I just want to point out Barrios did not
pitch well. He went two innings, gave up seven hits,
six runs, only two of them was earned. So it
wasn't the game that a pitcher was thrown out. That
was my mistake on that. And I do want to
point out the I use Fangrass Russ resorts. They do
a terrific job, but they did not update any relief
pitcher pitches for the for today's game, So I'm going
blind without having to look it up, and I just
don't have the time right now, so I can't give
you that information on who's going to be available out
of the bullpens today. So that's a little homework for
everybody because that's not up right now, and I just
don't have the time to go individually box score to
box score to get it. So we're running a little
bit short on that today. All right.
Speaker 2: Clint Harrelson Fitness.
Speaker 1: I think that's the first time I've seen him in
the live chat, So welcome, and Clint, if you're just
finding the show, you've been here the whole time. We
appreciate that, we appreciate the comments. We'll get to your
game because this sort of keeps us in that conversation
of the American League and teams that are in the mix.
He wants to discuss Brew Creue Rangers under that was
one so I never got I never got to the
window with client play yesterday, which was actually good because
my leans went like three and three. Now, good enough
for me is that I use the Cubs for the
parlay and I use the Rangers for my free pick video.
So everyone out there thinks I was like two to
oh yesterday, but full disclosure, I'm actually pretty content with
passing because the other stuff would have lost, and I'm
certain Brian Leonard that I would have picked the wrong one,
just how it goes. But the Rangers, I did a
video for this one yesterday, gave out the Rangers twelve
to one to win the Al West. I thought that
that was worth a shot at the price going into yesterday.
I bet it's not as good now with the Astros
blowing that game and the Rangers winning, and I gave
out the Rangers to win and they got it done.
Clint says Brewku Rangers. So this is again much bigger
game for the Rangers. As we've kind of discussed this
whole last couple of weeks with the Brewers going through
the motions, these games really aren't that important for them.
Speaker 2: He also wants to talk totals, so we'll go to you,
Brian Brewers, Rangers. What do you see here?
Speaker 3: Ready? Per luptim ere Ole Kelly par Altar is about
a one one thirty favorite total is seven and a
half to the under strong to the under under one
fifteen to twenty two. I'm seeing out there. Uh, yes,
Milwaukee doesn't need to win the games. But with a
Wheeler out now for the season, Breddy par Alta, I mean,
he's not going to win the cy young, but take
a look at these numbers. Sixteen to five on the
season with a two point five o ERA, his whip
is one point oh seven. Uh, he's having a terrific
run right now, and I don't know if I want
to bet against him while he's in the lineup. For myself,
the guy's on a roll and nobody else has been
able to hit him. Why would be this Texas team
who is missing I believe two of their top three
hitters in the lineup. How are they going to be
able to get to him? I think Milwaukee w'll have
some success here. I think the under is probably a
good thing to look for here. Unfortunately, I don't have
the pitching, the bullpen numbers. See who's going to be available.
But I don't want to go against Peralta, and I
don't trust this Texas offense when you're looking at his
opponent here, Kelly's been very good his entire career. A
guy that doesn't get a lot of credit, but he's
got a you know in seven seasons three point seven
to one era one point one nine whip. That's a
pretty good picture. Take a look at his seconds page.
The one thing he does very well he gets people
to chase bad pitches eighty eighth percentile and he doesn't
walk a lot in the seventy first percentile. But a
lot of his other stuff is in the blue. He's
not going to dazzle you, but he comes in with
a three point one sixth CRA four point oh four
expected a little bit negative regression coming for him, but
once again, one of these pitchers that go back his
entire career seven years, he is beating his expected era
every single year. He's deceptive and that's the kind of
guy you want, and he's not going to blow you
away with his four seemer only ninety two miles an hour,
but he's got some other pitches. He throws six overall,
although it's got his cutter. His four sings changed for
the ones he uses the most. I like both these pictures.
Don't trust the offenses a little bit here, so yeah,
I would play the under, but it looks like it's
getting close to heading down to seven right now, seven
and a half. So if it's three to three, you
need to get that seven for the under it to
get the winstart of the time, So make sure if
you do like the under, you play that now. And
that would be the way that I would lean on
this one. It's an early game, by the way, eleven
thirty five Pacific.
Speaker 4: Yeah, along the same lines as Brian. If you look
at how both of these pitchers have performed against the
other team, both of them have been amazing. Actually, Meryl
Kelly forty seven at bats against a one to twenty
eight average and a three eighty two opis's four hundred
points under my Mendoza line, and peralta two twenty nine
average and thirty five at bats against with a six
fifty six. So actually Meryl Kelly has a little bit
better numbers. So the next thing I would look at
is how are they hitting. I got the Rangers ranked
nineteen in current form, which is a little bit below average,
and I got the Milwaukee Brewers ranked sixteen, which is
just a smidge below average. Bullpens a little dicey here
and there, Rangers a little above average, Milwaukee a little
below average. So overall, I think with the semi mediocre
form current form for both lineups, instead of trusting the bullpens,
just go with the starting pitchers here, I think the
first five under three and a half would be the
way to go. As a matter of fact, I'm going
to make that my parlay lake is the first five
under three and a half. Right now, it looks like,
let's see you on the second total first half, it's
actually four under four at minus one twenty two on Pinnacle.
Speaker 3: What do you see, Brian, I let's see here, first half?
Uh total? Yeah, four four, Yeah, we're looking well, it's
three and a half overs one thirty five four four
minus maybe about one twenty.
Speaker 4: For the parlay. What do you think would be fair
to put out?
Speaker 3: One twenty one? Twenty one twenty five would be the
way it would be on the under. Right now, you're
getting plus money on the over.
Speaker 1: So that's Brewers, Bruise Rangers, Brewers, just so I have it,
Bruise Rangers.
Speaker 2: First five under four is roughly minus one twenty five.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like it.
Speaker 4: Let's do that. Some people saying they get four and
a half, but I think that's all so.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, an all, yeah, that under four.
Speaker 4: Pretty much everyone will be able to get a four probably,
so let's do that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely I agree with that.
Speaker 1: I so first sort of opinion on this game very
similar to the side on on the last game.
Speaker 2: I kind of got going on the total.
Speaker 1: Didn't really on the side in the Blue Jays game,
but didn't really feel like one of those teams should
be like favored over the other, like a substantial favorite
over the other, kind of how I feel here. I
don't really see why the Brewers would be a dollar
forty dollars thirty five dollars forty favorite in this scenario.
That being said, you know, this Brewers team is still
an elite baseball team, and I guess my concern from
a you know standpoint of backing the Rangers here would
be they are going to show up for some of
these games, right, Like the Brewers are just not gonna
you know, they they're not gonna lose out, okay, And
when the Brewers do, when they are interested and they
are playing good ball. This is still a team that's
eighty nine and fifty seven a plus one seventy run differential,
arguably the best team in the league, one of the
best teams in the league, I think we can all
agree is the case. So the way I look at it, like,
even though I think the Rangers have a great shot here,
they've obviously have more to play for. They're playing great
ball right now, I feel like yesterday was maybe the
spot to back the Rangers, and now you're kind of
asking for it, fading Freddie Paralton that that's kind of
how I feel just about the game in general. So
even though I have no interest at Brewers plus laying
a dollar thirty five dollars with the Brewers, going back
to what we've talked about this whole time, it's just
these get even with the losses yesterday, Like these are
just not.
Speaker 2: Crucial games for this Brewers team.
Speaker 1: They're six and a half, they have a six and
a half game lead in their own division, they have
a four game lead on the Phillies for the best record.
Speaker 2: They're still on the road.
Speaker 1: I could absolutely see the Brewers maybe waking up that
home because they obviously have their home bands to play for.
But right now you're just you can't lay a dollar
forty on the road with the Brewers. It's it's it's crazy.
Do I want to take the Rangers and bet against them,
not really because I respect Paralta, So that makes the
side handicap here virtually impossible for me.
Speaker 2: Just not a game I'm gonna get involved with TV.
Speaker 1: I can't really argue with you know, you think in
these pictures could could come out and get through five
with limited damage. So I'll uh, I hope you're right there.
That's that's probably the best way to play this one.
Speaker 4: Especially Kelly. I actually think Baralta is the better picture.
But Kelly, his numbers against the Brewers in a huge
sample size amazing, So yeah, I think it's a safe Yeah.
Speaker 1: Remember, Meryl Kelly comes from the National League's he's you
know this this, he's had a exposure and sometimes take
a point, I'll leave this on before we go to
the next game. Sometimes batter to pitcher exposure is not
always bad for the pitcher because it's a double edged sword.
Like sometimes I think the quick exposure sometimes hurts the
pitcher where it's like they just saw you six days ago.
But if you've seen batters and you have a good
game plan, like especially like a veteran like Meryl Kelly,
where you have a good idea of how you want
to attack a line that could be advantage Pitcher too.
So that's a good I think that's a good point.
Double Jacks Wilett said, Brewers down to minus one twenty six.
I bet online it wouldn't surprise me to see the
Rangers take some money there minus I mean, this was
Brewers minus one forty like before we got on the show,
minus one thirty five, minus one forty. That's quite an
inflated number in my opinion, just when you consider like
where both of these teams are at this point, how
badly the Rangers need this game, how they're playing, that's
a very inflated number.
Speaker 2: I can't believe it.
Speaker 1: Was as high as that. That being said, I'm not
going to be fading the Brewers here. Okay, let's see.
I want to go back to.
Speaker 2: The chat.
Speaker 1: Brian is very happy about your call in Pirates Oreos yesterday.
I saw a lot of people thanking you for that call.
If you missed it, it was part of our parlay.
Brian gave out the first five under in Pirates Orioles.
It was an easy winner. And so Markinsen wants to
go back there because and we got to go back.
Speaker 2: There for two reasons.
Speaker 1: One, these are my two babies playing each other, which
is unfortunate because I want to bet on both of
these teams and they're playing each other. Brian, that's that's
unfortunate for me. Two, it's Paul Skeene's day. So Pirates Orioles.
You know you had the under nailed yesterday. My guess is,
without having looked at it the line yet, probably not
a ton of value in the under department when Paul
Skeens is on the mound. But man, like these two teams,
they're they're they're both playing good ball. It's tough for me.
It's tough to fade either of these teams. Are you
trying to go back to Pirates Orioles today?
Speaker 3: Yeah, two young teams that continue they you know, Baltimore
had the expectations coming into the season, they were quickly
out of it and they had to bring up some
other guys and so they got a lot of younger
guys playing. And Pittsburgh their whole team is basically younger guys,
so other than Tommy fam and maybe a couple others.
So yeah, two teams stowing their fans that yes, they
got something to look forward to next year, we've got
Skins coming in about a one forty more like a
one to fifty favorite here total seven and a half
to the under. I do want to say, since we've
talked about the Houston Toronto game, the Blue Jays, we've
gotten hit across the board. They're a little bit higher here.
But getting back to the Pittsburgh game, Paul skiins on
his way to the Sally Young Award ten and nine record,
but at one point nine eighty RA two point five
seven expected zero point nine to four whip. Everything on
his statcast page is blue. Excuse me, red, excuse me red.
He's very good. He's got seven different pitches. A hard
hit rate in the fifty nine percentile is the worst
thing he has, and being pitching at Pittsbrigg is a
pretty good pitcher's ballpark. He doesn't get hurt by that
at all. And he's going up against Tyler Wells back
from injury three point six to oh ERA two point
five seven to five expected one point zero zero whip.
So he's only pitched the one game, but he five
and he's got four strikeouts and look pretty impressive. Chase
Right was good, his walk grate was good. But his
additional information is basically in the blue He's a guy
for his career in five seasons four point oh five ERA,
one point four whip. Considering he's pitched in the America
League in Baltimore, in that division where you got to
face you know, the Yankees and the Red Sox and
the Blue Jays. Batch all the time said he's not
a bad pitcher, he's about league average. I would qualify
him in that regard for myself. In this game, I
think Pittsburgh will perform very well with Skins on the mound,
but with wells if he pitches anything like he did
in that first game, it'll be a lower scoring game
total seven and a half. If he got down to seven,
I probably would not play. This is still since they
moved defenses in a little bit, I mean thirteen feet
since last year. It's more of a good hitters park.
So I'm going to probably lay off of this game.
There's other games on the board, and but yeah, maybe
maybe play something with a lot of the young Baltimore batters,
maybe skiing strakeoffs or something to that effect. But that's
not my priority. That's Brandon does that kind of thing.
So we'll see what he has to say about that.
Speaker 4: Yeah, my baseball card is out for today, guys, so
go to wajatalk dot com and see what is available.
I'm sure my comrades here, my Russian comrades here will
have plays up and we always have free plays out
as well. Go to the replay and leave a comment. Please.
Does goes a long way, especially in football season. WAYJA
talk will say, Hey, people are still talking baseball. That's great.
So yeah, one hundred and thirty three innings pitched in
a one nine eighty RA I'd say Schiens is pretty good.
He's a decent pitcher. So who's he facing today? He's
facing a lineup that I have ranked twenty one out
of thirty in current form. Pittsburgh's bullpen not real trustworthy
at the moment. I've actually liked their bullpen. I've had
their bullpen ranked top ten certain parts of the season,
but right now they're they're not performing that well. I
have them slightly under average right now. I think the
Baltimore team total in the first five one and a
half now, I honestly I said this on yesterday's show.
I really MLB one and a half's in the first
five are really dangerous. A bloop and of blast and
your bed is dead. But Skeens is just special. I mean,
there's there's there are probably five pitchers in MLB that
are just special, and he's definitely one of the top two.
He's just special. And I don't think Baltimore is going
to score two runs on him. As a matter of fact,
Skeens has only given up more than one run in
three of his last ten starts. So seventy shot at
winning a bet, Yeah, I think that's a decent bet.
So that's probably the way I would go in this one.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I like the pirates here, I like schemes TB.
I agree with a lot of what you're saying.
Speaker 1: I think this Orioles lineup for as much as I
think they play the underdog role well right now.
Speaker 2: And they've got some young stuff, you know, young.
Speaker 1: Pieces to like about the future, it's still it's still
a very young lineup at times, and one that I
think KIT can be dominated by, like tip top pitching.
You know it'll go forgotten at this point, but we
saw a very good pitcher dominate this lineup over the weekend,
and Yamamoto it's just no One remembers that because of
how that game ended.
Speaker 2: And that's the thing, Like they're.
Speaker 1: They're so young that like they don't know better, so
they're gonna, you know, it's just gonna be very sporadic.
And they can go from getting literally no hit for
eight innings to seeing a different pitcher and kind of
like rallying. And I think the energy is great, but
like it's it's still a young lineup that could be
I think is is.
Speaker 2: Prone to being like just wiped out by a guy
like Skiens.
Speaker 1: You know, give me, give me this this Orioles lineup
against you know, maybe like a like a mid level
pitcher from one of the Al East teams that's overvalued. Yeah,
I'll take that all day against Skiens. I want no
part I like the Pirates. Do I want to lay
a dollar forty five with the Pirates? Not really, but uh,
it would be Pirates, Skiings. Find a way to play
the Pirates or Schemes doing something good. Maybe an under
no play here for me, but that's the only way
I could go ahead, Brian.
Speaker 3: The only drawback is we all know Colorado's the worst
team on the road to Major League Baseball. They've won
seventeen games on the road this season. The next first
is the Pirates, a twenty two wins on the season,
and you're getting a Baltimore team who's pretty hot. There's
seven to three of their last ten. Yeah, there's there's
always drawbacks when you've got skins on the mound because
they don't hit for them and they have not played
well on the road. So I'll be setting it out,
but yeah, maybe get some strikeouts. Maybe that's how you approach.
Speaker 4: That game pays in point. He's the best, he's the
one of the two best pitchers in MLB and he's
ten and nine.
Speaker 1: So yeah, I guess to take it a step further
if you did, if you didn't want to go TV's route,
which is like a team total under because there's less
room for for air. You know, Tyler Wells threw the
ball pretty good throughout his rehab. Pittsburgh really doesn't hit
on the road either. That this is one of the
worst offensive teams in baseball. I know they've they've been
better of late, they've kind of found ways to get
hot and stuff.
Speaker 2: But you know, Tyler Wells, I thought he threw it
pretty good.
Speaker 1: At in his rehab outings last time out, first big
league similar to Kyle Brad. So Kyle Bradish is the
guy we talked about yesterday. Tyler Wells had a very
long drawn out rehab. They didn't need to rush him back.
There was no reason to to sort of get him
back to the big league level. They let him get
back to speed and then what do you what did
you last time out? Comes out in San Diego? Five
pretty strong innings. He went five innings, two runs on,
five hit, zero walks, four strikeouts. So maybe you go
first five under again, just like Brian did yesterday. It's
hard to see them scoring like more than like three
or four ones. I don't know what the first five unders.
I'm guessing you're gonna have to stay under three and
a half here. It's hard to believe that there's like
a big time offense in the early stages of this game.
So maybe that's the way you go.
Speaker 2: Brian.
Speaker 1: I gotta compliment you on that is a great guardian
tat right there. I know that's some sort of Guardian's
alternate cap. And let's compliment the guardians as well. And
Tokyo Brandon gave him out in the parlay yesterday they
win two. Nothing happy to see it because I'm about
had it with the Royals. And Bobby Wood Junior did
come back yesterday, didn't really you know, factor into that game.
Speaker 2: Think he went one for four.
Speaker 1: I guess he's back. Brian, Do you do you have
any faith in your Guardians? I mean they're getting themselves
back in the conversation, and it's like, I don't know
that Logan Allen's necessarily the guy you want to back.
But what are the what are the Royals doing with
their pitching today? Is it going to be a mix
of bullpen arms?
Speaker 3: Like?
Speaker 2: Do you like the Guardians to keep it going at
home here? Yeah?
Speaker 3: Your thought process is the same as mine. We're getting
Cleveland at a cheap number maybe minus one oh five es. Basically,
it's a pick. I'm out there right now, and I
know Boland's going for Kansas City. He's a lefty and
he hasn't gotten a lot of action. But Allen is
not a guy I'm looking to back. But yeah, why
is Kansas City? I picked him in this game? Their
season is basically over because the way they played in
the last week.
Speaker 2: Can I jump in real quick?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 1: I just want to just so you guys know, and
everyone in the chat knows, Jonathan Bolan pitched on Monday,
So it's like, even though he was a starter at Omaha,
I don't think he's throwing like starter innings here. So
the fact that Bolan's going to start this game after
pitching on Monday suggest that this is probably.
Speaker 2: A bullpen game for the Royals.
Speaker 3: Continue Sorry, Yeah, he's got twenty six games pitched this
year and none of them has been a start, So
he's going to be a starter here, just pitching inning
or so. He's got in twenty six games, thirty five
point one inning, so he may go two. And you know,
his numbers haven't been bad three point five seven ERA
three point sixty nine expected one point one three whip.
His walk rates kind of pour a ten point five,
much better than last year seventeen point six. But he's
a guy with a little bit of control issues. But
you take a look at his stack gass page. It's
a small number of innings, but this more red than blue.
He hasn't he hasn't done bad. Locan Allen's a guy
who comes in with a He's lost eleven games already
this year, four point four to six era four point
sixty six expected one point four to four whip. He
has been the worst of the Cleveland starters, and when
you got Chacny on that list, that's not a good
thing to say. Uh, Logan Allen. I thought coming into
the season there was a lot of talk that he
was going to be much approved this year. It hasn't happened.
He's got a losing record four point five to seven
career three seasons. Hopefully he's either got it or he
pitches limited innings here, so then get the bullpen involved
a little bit. I think the line is a little
bit cheap on Cleveland, and that would be the way
I would play it. But if if I knew Allen
was limited innings and then get the bullpen in there,
I'd be more willing. Maybe this is a game whereas
the game goes on, you play it by year, play
a little bit on the live betting. Maybe Kennas City
gets out to you to nothing the lead and we
can get to Cleveland the rest of the game with
a bullpen that's pitching much better now than they were
earlier this season and we can get that. So just
something to keep involved that I want to be on Cleveland,
but I don't want Logan Allen basically.
Speaker 4: Agree, and of every pitcher that starts today, Logan Allen
has by far the worst numbers against the batters. He's
facing fifty six at bats against, a three ninety three
average against and a one thousand and sixty seven OPS.
That is just rotten, dismal, terrible. Who's doing most of
the damage Bobby Witt Junior and he's a seven for twelve,
So a Bobby Witt Junior hits runs RBIs would be
a decent bet today. He did have a little bit
of a clunker game yesterday, but usually when these guys,
you know, the hitters, the hitters are on like patterns
as well, and when you knock them off the rhythm,
it takes them a game or two to come back.
I mean, I expect Bobby Witt Junior to have a
good game today, and I expect Max Munsey to have
a good game, because when guys come back, it takes
him a game or two just to get back into
the rhythm. Bobby Witt Junior has absolutely clobbered Allen in
his career, so I think the Royals for one and
a half in the first five or Bobby with hits
runs RBIs would be a good play in this one.
I don't trust the Royals lineup, but I do think
Bobby wit Junior will probably have a decent game here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, like it really is going to come
down to, like how much you trust the Royals bullpen.
So Dan in the chat says Bowling is right handed.
He's been up on roster for a couple of weeks
now pitching long relief. Like he actually has been back
and forth from Kansas City to Omaha eight times this year,
so he has been called up and sent down eight
different times.
Speaker 2: It's sort of not a bust. It's part of the
life of.
Speaker 1: Like your back end bullpen guys now, and that that's
just how they treat relievers in baseball now. Once you're what,
Once you're used, and you can't be used for a
couple of days, they option you if you have options,
and they get someone else because the teams don't get
much length out of their starters anymore, and they need
the they need the arms. So the whole whole thing
here though, is like he's not going to pitch more
than two innings because he hasn't for the Royals yet,
and he just pitched on Monday, so you got to figure, Like,
I like Bowling, he's someone that I like, but we're
only gonna get two innings out of him here.
Speaker 2: So what are the Royals gonna do the rest of
the time.
Speaker 1: I mean, they do have some some arms that I
don't mind out of their bullpen, So could they potentially
piece it together?
Speaker 2: Yeah, like they probably could.
Speaker 1: I still don't like this Guardian's lineup, but I don't
know that I'm confident enough in the Royals piecing together
essentially seven innings of bullpen relief.
Speaker 2: They haven't hit at all the Guardians.
Speaker 1: You know, I have my own issues with Logan Allen
the Guardians like, but they are playing good baseball when
it matters, and they've they've looked the more interested team
over the past you know.
Speaker 2: Week or so. So I this is this is a
tough one for me.
Speaker 1: I just like don't really know how to play this
because I'd love to find a spot to take the
Royals in this seas at some point because I just
don't know that the Guardians sweep them.
Speaker 2: But I don't want seven I don't want nine innings
essentially from the Royals.
Speaker 1: Bullpen he could work. That's just not what I really
want to bet on, So I guess, like reluctantly, I'll
call it under. But this is probably one I don't
have action and just well, we'll hope for Brian's sake
that the Guardians just keep winning so he can be
entertained in October. But like, this feels like probably a
low scoring game somehow, even in spite of Logan Allen
mean not liking Logan Allen. I think maybe he pitches
okay here, because I'll go back to what I said yesterday.
This Royal lineup does not fare particularly well against left
handed pitching, so we'll call it under. All right, all right,
let's go. Jesse's got a question. Let's get Jess. Let's
get Jesse schule in here. First of all, thank you
for tuning in Jesse. He wants to know do you
think pitchers on losing teams dial back the ve lo
in these final games to preserve longevity unless fighting for
a roster spot. That's an interesting question. I want to
see if we have a game where we have one
of those guys today. So I'm gonna take a quick
look at games we haven't talked about yet.
Speaker 2: Well, no, we already talked about that game. Let me
let me let.
Speaker 1: Me what about Chris Sale? How about that game? This
kind that that's what about a guy like Sale? Now
you got Braves Cubs. Sale might not be the best
example because I feel like he didn't have much of
a season, so it's like he's just kind of coming out.
He's probably happy to be out there. Brian, do you
have any do you want to answer Jesse's question? And
then we'll take it into Cubs Braves. Since we nailed
this one yesterday, we might as well talk about it today.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not so sure. I'm not so sure that
they do. Uh, they're still planning for contracts. They're still
trying to impress, like like in Miami right now with
pres going. He would be my example of that.
Speaker 2: Is, let's talk, Well, would you rather talk that game?
You want to talk that game instead?
Speaker 3: Yeah, if you like. I don't have much on it,
but he's he's a guy that's not pitched well lately,
and he could easily cut back down make sure to
preserve his arm, but he wants to prove himself for
next year. He's a young guy with with a lot
of talent. Uh Sale Sale is going to give you
a hundred percent out there every time, So I don't
think he would be somebody in that regard. But we'll
talk to We'll talk to Washington, UH Miami game here.
Irvin going for Washington. He's struggled as of late, and
Perez has done the same thing. Perez right now is
about a one fifty five favorite total eight and a
half to the under. And we've got two teams right
now that are been out of the playoffs for a while,
especially Washington. But I don't know if I trust Jack
Irvin comes in with a five point seven one ERA
five point seventy four expected one point four. Nothing is good.
In fact, his extension great extension. He's a tall guy
six foot six, so in the ninety fourth percentile, but
single digit percentiles expected the ra fifth with fourth strike
out right, fourth barrel right, fifth hard hit seventh. I
don't want any part of Jake Irv and he he
last two years as the ERA was four point four
to one, four point six to one grant and he's
playing in a division with some pretty good offenses in it.
But he's not a guy I'm looking to back. Eury
Perez Real mixt year. When you take a look at
his stats, comes in with a four point sixty sixth
ERA three point four to one expected at one point one.
Oh whip. He's pitched better than what his numbers suggests,
but he had that string when it came back from
injury and he struggled. Then he was great. Now he's
struggling again. He's up to seventy five minutings last last year,
did not pitch the year before ninety one, so maybe
he's hit the wall here. His ground ball rates only
in the eighth percentile are here rate fifteenth Averajaxson velocity
twenty fourth. So I do have concerns about that. If
I play this game at all, it would be towards
the over. We are looking at an eight and a half.
It's pretty much an eight and a half straight around.
You don't have to play any juice. There so two
young teams that I like the hitting a little bit
better than the pitching at this point, so I would
lean towards the over. But yeah, everything's got to be
taken on an individual basis when it comes to taking
a look at what they're going to do. Some guys
are playing for contracts, some guys playing for the spot
in the rotation. Still, if you end the season in
the rotation, and we'll see this out of the Mets,
that gives a good indication on who they're going to
use to start the rotation the following year. Obviously you've
got to take in injuries into account, but some of
these guys are pitching for next year already and we'll
have to see how it goes for a lot of them.
Speaker 4: To quickly answer the question, I don't think the pitchers
take velocity off because, like Brian said, they're playing for
a contract and they want to look good. They want
to get traded to a good team. If they're on
a bad team, they still they still want to get paid.
What does happen, though, is managers limit their innings going down,
so you're gonna see guys like Schemes or old guys
like Sail. You might start seeing them go shorter outings,
not reaching ninety instead of the one hundred being the ceiling,
ninety being the ceiling for pitch count. That kind of
thing does happen quite often. But the pitcher, if he's
on the mound, he's he's pitching, is his guts out.
That's just how these guys are their competitors, and they've
been doing this since they were six years old. So
onto this game, both pitchers man have been knocked up
pretty hard. Perez just gave up seven earned to this
team in his last start, so that's not good. And
his overall numbers against him not too bad an eight
hundred ops, so not terrible. The game before he gave
up seven to Washington, he gave up five to the Mets,
so that's not instilling a lot of confidence in him.
He did have one good game where he gave up one,
but then the two games before that he gave up
four earned and five earned, so the luster is starting
to wear off. Of very press here, Jake Irvin, here's
a stat for you. In his last five starts, he's
given up twenty six earned runs. That's just awful. So
the first thing my inclination would be look at it over,
so which team's hitting better? I got Washington ranked eight
in hitting and I got Miami's bullpen ranked twenty eight,
so a Washington team total over would be my knee
jerk reaction. I have not analyzed it to see how
much it is, but on on pinnacle, it's only three
and a half at minus one nineteen. I think that's
a pretty nice bet. So that would be how I
would go.
Speaker 1: And this is the scrimmage at this point, like it's
like I have zero faith. I'm just gonna triple down now.
I've now given out in some capacity the over in
this game the past two days.
Speaker 2: On Monday there was twenty two runs.
Speaker 1: I got back and forth in the chat with some
folks on that one, twenty two runs. Yesterday I gave
out over as the way I would play this one
on the show, and it got there with twelve runs
and a big reason I thought that, and is exactly
how yesterday played out.
Speaker 2: I just don't think either of these.
Speaker 1: Teams is capable of holding the other one down for
nine innings with what they're throwing out there at this point.
Speaker 2: The Nationals have no bullpen arms.
Speaker 1: The Marlins, who did have some arms that impressed me
for a period of time, have just seemed to collectively
run out of gas and it and it goes to
the bullpen as well. A lot of guys that I
think the Marlins sort of made into these like solid
two three inning guys that you know might help with
their future. I think some of them are gonna be
on the roster, and the guys that that are good
long term, they just look like they've run out of
gas at this point. And you mean to tell me
that if the over is eight and a half, which
means they're gonna they're gonna give you the key number. Yeah,
Like theoretically this should be if I'm looking like Yuri
Perez when he's good can be really good. So that's
the concern, right, the fact that like if he's got
it together, he can come out and throw six seven scoreless,
but you still get to go against Irvin. You're still
likely to get three innings at minimum out of the
Marlins bullpen. Like there's just runs around, Like if over
the course of nine innings there should be run scoring
opportunities in this game. And then you talk about Perez
like he's really struggled the last two times, and this
is a guy that worked very very hard in the
offseason and then to start this year to come back
from a very difficult injury to come back from. So
it's like maybe he's just out of gas too. I'm
actually surprised. I mean, I told you I think I
talked about it going into his last start or maybe
two starts ago, that there's no way they would put
this guy out there if he was a little bit
hurt or injured. Can't ignore the fact that he has
not looked the last two times out like he did
for like a month or two when he really sort
of kind of figured it out and came back from
the injury. And then Jake Irvin, even with the Marlins
downstours and some of their better hitters like Irvin's gonna
give up some runs, and the Nationals bullpen's as bad
as he gets. So you got to go over again here.
Just take your money from the last two days. If
you've been betting this over, just take another over. Otherwise,
have no interest in these two teams.
Speaker 3: Go ahead, bright, Yeah, and this is not a getaway game,
so you don't have to worry about that. They're playing
again tomorrow. If it's okay with you, I'm gonna suggest
a game here because we're getting up against him. We've
only got to go ahead. I'm gonna take a look
here at the Cincinnati San Diego game. Now, a lot
of money is coming in on Cincinnati right now. You
could have gotten Cincinnati on the overnight at one thirty eight.
I'm seeing as low as one twenty at bet MGM
right now in fanatics if you're playing in one of
those states. But a lot of money is coming in
on Cincinnati, and I don't know if I agree with this.
The Reds right now, we're down to five point two
percent chance to make the playoffs. We already know that
the Padres and the Dodgers are basically just playing out
the season. But my question is if anybody knows when
Nick Pavetta signed late with the Padres. He was probably
the best pitching free agent signing in the league, and
he signed late. Was it a one year contract or
was it a two year contract? Because if he's still
a free agent again this year, I expect Pavetta to
pitch extremely well here because the game will be important
to him. I don't remember. I went to the Ross
resource page and it hasn't said how long the contract was,
so maybe I missed it. Maybe it's a two year contract,
but it's a one year contract. I think this is
a bargain on San Diego. Abbot's going for Cincinnati. He's
he's puzzled a lot of us all season long. In fact,
it's career. Actually signed a four year deal. Four year deal. Okay, okay,
well that makes a little bit more sense then, because
I still like the situation with him. But yeah, that's
good for him. That's the perfect ballpark for him, either
in Kansas City or in San Diego, or obviously the
match stadium, which is good for every pitcher. But I
like to put better here. The line is, like I said,
you can get as low as one thirty six out
there on him right now, but there are one forty
five's out there. I prefer the San Diego side in
this game, and they're playing at home. They've got a
very good home record. Cincinnati is a team right now
that I think is just playing out the string, and
you're paying the juice of them still being in baseball
playoff race, although like I said, a five percent chance
they're they're technically out of it. I'm gonna I don't
don't light a lot of chalk. I'm more of an
underdog player, but I'm gonna play San Diego here. Let's
play San Diego. Let's get the current, Let's go one
forty five on there, although like I said, you can
get it in the one thirties. Shop around and get
that if you want it. But I'm gonna play San
Diego here. I think really good game for Pavetta here,
and Abbott is so inconsistent. I could be wrong, but
I'll lay the chalk on this one.
Speaker 4: I have the Padres ranked a little bit higher than
the Reds in almost every category. But when that happens,
I like to see a difference of like ten or
more points on my ranking, and I only have these
guys five points different. But dig a little deeper and
I you could probably convince me to take San Diego here,
because Pavetta's numbers against these batters are just unreal. Sixty
at bats against, a one to eighty three average and
a five forty six ops. It's the second best number
of any pitcher starting pitcher out today against the batteries
he's facing. Now, he's at home, and he loves pitching
at home. He's got a two three, nine er and
ninety innings at home. So take a look at how
the teams compare. Yes, the Reds are hitting the ball
quite well. I have them ranked eleven in current form,
so that's a little bit scary. But the Reds bullpen
Is is performing like trash these days that I have
him ranked twenty one out of thirty in current form,
where I got san Diego's at eleven. So given all
of that, I probably would favor san Diego in this
as well. One red Flag, though Abbott has amazing command,
only walking twenty three percent of the batters he's striking out.
Both of these pitchers have really good command. They're not
walking people almost at all. So I just like Paveta's
numbers in the head to head matchup. I think it'll
be a tight game, though I think san Diego probably
pull it out, maybe a run. It looks this looks
like a four to three kind of game to me,
so that's probably what we'll be seeing.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, if we're talking to two teams right now,
certainly for the Padres, don't think it's impossible that they
I mean, they got a lot to play for still,
even even though they're going to be in the playoffs.
Like catching the Dodgers, I think catching the Dodgers means
way more to them than it does the Dodgers. Like
I really don't think, yeah, Like I don't really think
the Dodgers are going to be devastated if they if
they don't win the division for some reason, it's just
like they're gonna go to the playoffs and like that's that's.
Speaker 2: The focus for them.
Speaker 1: Whereas, like I do think it's a pretty big deal
for the for the Padres if they can pull it off,
which is very possible.
Speaker 2: They're only two games back to win the division.
Speaker 4: So I think, you know, I apologize cutting you off,
but this is playing out exactly like last season and
when the Padres lost the division, they were so deflated.
So I'm just adding to what you're saying right now.
Speaker 1: Yeah, No, I mean, I definitely think there's like motivation
there Petco Park in September, Like, that's that's one of
the better atmospheres you're going to find in baseball. That
crowd is great year round, but they are ready for
especially when the Padres are good. That's a playoff atmosphere
comes September at a night game. They're forty four and
twenty six at home this year and that that comes
as no surprise. That is probably one of the best
atmospheres in the in the league. And you know, hey,
San Diego, they lost their football team, so they have
one thing now and that one thing is the Padres,
and they show up for that team, it's gonna be
a tremendous atmosphere. Red's on the road this year thirty
three and thirty eight doesn't really surprise me that much.
Speaker 2: The Reds are.
Speaker 1: I feel like the Reds are what they are. They're
five hundred team, you know they. I feel like they
more or less beat themselves often this year, and it's like,
you look at this matchup and the magnitude of the
game for the Padres, the fact that they're at home,
the fact they have paveda on the mound, it's really
hard to like not like the Padres. How this sets up.
So I'm with you, right, I think it would be
Padres or a pass for me as well. All right,
I'm gonna throw a game out, but I'll go to
YouTube first. Let's finish off the al sort of West
playoff race. Let's talk Cardinals Mariners. This is probably gonna
end up being my parlay Lake, but I'm gonna give
you two a chance to either talk me into it
or talk me out of it.
Speaker 2: It's logan, Gilbert. It looks like McGreevy for the Cardinals.
How are you seeing this one.
Speaker 3: Brian's check the line on this one. Logan Gilbert's about
a two twenty favorite total seven and a half. The
problem with Seattle be in a two twenty favorite is
a lot of their pitchers. The innings are really taking
a toll on them. Gilbert's had some injuries this year.
When he pitches, he's been good. He hasn't been as
good as he's been in the past, but they've had
some other guys that run into problems. To mcgreevy's a guy,
and I think I backed Saint Louis on five percent
or a big play last time he pitched, and he
did not pitch well and we got I took the
loss as one of my few losses I've had in
the last couple of months. Still number one in net
profit in baseball the last thirty days. But Saint Louis
coming into this. You take a look at their numbers lately,
Saint Louis the team playing through the basically the grinding
off the season. They're five and five to the last ten,
don't have any chance for the playoffs, but there's still
only two games under five hundred. I think it means
a lot to this team to get to be a
five hundred team or play or better again. I'm sure
they've got a nice streak of that. That's been a
long time since the Cardinals have not had a winning record,
but they've got McGreevy on the mound. Zia rais up
to four point six eight four point ninety one unexpected
one point twenty six whip. He's walked right ninety nine percentile,
doesn't walk anybody three point nine percent this year, two
point three percent last year. Now we saw that with
one of one of TV's favorite pitchers. The pitch for
the Twins yesterday very similar. His season is very similar
to what his was last year. And you look at
his strike up percenty second percentile with for eighth expected
batting average, fourth bros. Seven seven pitches, his UH fastball
as basically he throws at twenty five percent of the time,
so he's got a lot of different pitches. I like that,
but he's not going to blow you away with his fastball.
I like McGreevey, but I liked him last week. He
bring me back Logan Gilbert comes in with a four
and six record. He was a guy that was one
of them they considered front runner for the cy Young
You're not going to win many cy Young's with four
wins in September three point six twenty two point eight
two expected one point h two, which still a really
good pitcher, but he does get hurt as adams ex
velocity fourteenth percentile is a concern. But I like him.
But he's been very up and down. For myself, I
can't lay the two twenty on Seattle based on the
way he's been. He's had too many bad outings. McGreevey
has the ability to pitch with him in this game.
If I play it, I take the underdog, but I
likely won't get there in this one.
Speaker 4: Well, this isn't gonna help Adam if he's on the
fence because I'm going the opposite way. I love in
this matchup. I like Gilbert. I'll make it quick because
we're running out of time, but I like Gilbert's numbers
against these botters. I like Gilbert as a pitcher. He's
in his last few starts. He's he's finished six innings
in three straight starts, and my expected numbers from McGreevy,
according to my numbers, are terrible. I got him ranked
twenty one on the thirty on a curve of thirty
where I got Gilbert rank six. So my numbers love
Seattle here. So I agree with you that the price
is too high. A minus one, even a minus one
is minus one seventy, so it's tough to take it
at that price. But I really like Seattle in this.
Speaker 1: One, I'll break the tie. I'm gonna take Cardinals plus
one and a half. It's possible. Hey, it's possible Seattle
wins and the Cardinals still cover. Mcgreevy's a guy that,
like he's kind of been at the Triple A level
or in the big leagues for the Cardinals the last
couple of years. If you want to talk about being
important to to hint like this is an important start
to him. I think he's probably a guy that the
Cardinals are looking at, trying to trying to evaluate whether
he's going to be in their rotation next year or not.
Speaker 2: And you know he might.
Speaker 1: He might have had some blow ups, like last time
out against the Giants, as Brian said, he didn't pitch
very well, but like for the most part he's pitched.
He's had a very good season. If you look at
all of his starts this year, Memphis and then the ones.
At the big league level, he's had a very solid season.
I think he's a a solid pitcher with a lot
of upside, and so again I think it's it's very
possibly comes out and pitches well here.
Speaker 2: I still am.
Speaker 1: Not convinced that Logan Gilbert is not injured in some capacity.
I know he's pitched well the last couple of times out,
but knowing the knowing the injury he had earlier this season,
there's no way he's not pitching through that a little bit,
and that could crop up at any time. We saw
how bad he was in that Philly start, having you know,
couldn't locate anything, and it's like, you know, he's battled
through his last couple starts. But again, I still think
you're you're being asked to pay a premium number on
a guy that might be hurt. And then I'll just
go to the fact that, like I've watched like every
inning of this series so far without any action on it.
The Mariners winning both of those first two games in
this series by more than one run, very fortunate. You know,
go back to two nights ago, they had they trailed
for the majority of that game, come out with a
seven a four run sixth inning, and they were able
to hold on four to use their leverage relief arms
to do so. Go to last night. You know, it
was back and forth. All the scoring stopped after the
fourth inning. After it was like Cardinals up to nothing.
Then I believe it was three to three. Mariners get
up five to three, and then they end up like
being able to hold that.
Speaker 2: On, hold on to that with their top bullpen arms.
Speaker 1: Josh Naylor may have tweaked something in the last inning
of that game last night. Guys, it's hard for him
to get off the ground these days. He just gets
bigger every time I see him. He puts on a
few more pounds. But he made a sliding which is
really nice play kind of wins to t when he
got up. I'll be interesting to see if that, you know,
maybe it looked like he tweaked something in the groin area,
maybe like the way he slid and sort of backhanded
that ball got up made the play the first That
would be rough if he's out of the lineup for
them today, So something I'll be looking at. But all
all things considered, this series, these last two games have
been too competitive for me to think the Cardinals don't
have a the chance to avoid the sweep be the
possibility that they keep it to at least one run.
You're getting them on the road, so you kind of
get the extra at that. So that'll be my parlay leg.
Cardinals plus one and a half ran. What am I
looking at for a price minus one fifteen? Yeah, that's
that's a I really think that's an all around good bet.
If any of those things happens in that way, the
Cardinals probably win this game. Worst case scenario, can they
keep it within a run? I think they can, So
that is going to be my parlay leg. And we've
got the parlay locked in. If you missed yesterday's show,
it was a nice three team winner plus five fifty.
So we're gonna try to do it again. The chat
says that we can't hit back to back parlays. I
do think there's been at least one point in time
this year where we hit a back to back parlay.
But we've got the chance to do it again. So
let's see we have. I just want to make sure
these prices are accurate and all right, here we go,
there we go. Okay, that is correct? All right, So
plus four sixty eight on this three teamer, we're gonna
go Tokyo brand is going Brewers Rangers first five under four,
So that's Brewers Rangers first five under four. Brian Leonards
got the Padres on the money line, and I'm gonna
take Cardinals plus one and a half. So once again
three teamer Tokyo Brandon Brewers Rangers first five under four,
Brian san Diego Padres money line trig Cardinals plus one
and a half. That Harlay is plus four sixty eight.
That's the show. We'll see you guys back here tomorrow morning,
nine am Eastern. Have a great day everyone, Good luck
with all your bets.