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Speaker 1: All right, welcome in everyone. It's Wednesday. It's time for

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Total Bases. This is your Major League Baseball Deep Dive

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show on the ways you're talking YouTube channel. Free picks,

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We'll get you some free picks. We got a nice

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a few free picks. Yesterday, Guys Parlay was a winner

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Clubs one, Guardians one.

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Speaker 2: Bryan's first five under one.

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Speaker 1: Easily to put us back in the plus on the

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parlay for the year.

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Speaker 2: Want to stress how impressive I think that is.

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Speaker 1: We've been doing a three team parlay every day since

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April and we're ahead. So who says you can't win

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betting Parlay's Ryan Leonardo, you know, even though that's what

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they like to tell you. But we still have some

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season to go. I'm sure it's gonna get tougher as

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we get to the playoffs. So let's build ourselves a

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cushion and try to hit another one today.

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Speaker 2: I want to hit a.

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Speaker 1: Couple of these games that are you know, I guess

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big implication games. I talked to someone, I responded to

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someone in the comments yesterday and they said, why'd you

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spend eight minutes on Marlin's Nats? And I said, we're

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sports betters. Every game is a big game. There's no

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game that's less big than a different one. Because if

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your money's on it, it's a big game. I don't know,

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it could be you know, it could be pee wee.

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Speaker 2: Football, Brian.

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Speaker 1: If you're betting on it, it matters. So we're gonna,

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you know, we'll hit what you guys put.

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Speaker 2: In the chat.

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Speaker 1: But I'm going to appease the masses that want to

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talk big games. And I'm going to start in the

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AL in the American League, where we have the Houston

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Astros trying to hang on to a division lead that

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suddenly the Rangers have put themselves in the conversation for

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and they're going to take on the Toronto Blue Jays

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who are fighting tooth and nail to hold off the Yankees.

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And huge result for them last night. They looked lifeless

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for eight innings and they steal it, tied up in

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the ninth, steal it in the tenth. Big win for

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the Blue Jays, especially with the Yankees getting bombed by

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the Tigers. So let's talk Astros, Blue Jays, any thoughts

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on the respective division. I gave out Rangers twelve to

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one on a free pick video yesterday to win the aos.

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I kind of feel good about myself after how yesterday

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played out. But what about you any talk on the

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divisions and then do a breakdown Astros Blue Jay Spores.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the Rangers are up to twenty two point seven

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percent to win that division. You know, it's interesting the Rangers,

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assuming the Afros, have a one game division lead over

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the Mariners, yet they got less of a chance to

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make the playoffs. They're currently at seventy nine point one,

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where the Mariners are at eighty six point four. And

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the reason is, if you take a look at the

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home games, Houston's played five more home games than Seattle

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has and we're to the point now where you've got

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about seventeen games left in the season. So Seattle is

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going to have five more home games in Houston the

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rest of the way out. So a lot of people

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pay attention to the games behind, but pay attention to

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the rest of the stuff on the schedule and see

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who you're playing. And so actually the Houston team, even

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though they got that one game lead, has less of

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a chance to make the playoffs. You get Alexander going

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against Barrios right here, Burrios about a one twenty eight

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maybe a one thirty favorite total of nine. Jason Alexander

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is four and one on the season. He seems to

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get some good run support when he pitches. Four point

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six eighty RA, four point sixty six expected A one

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point three nine whip. The whip's pretty bad. In fact,

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all his numbers are pretty bad. If you take a

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look at his tack cast page, first percent ile chase rate,

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nine percent hard hit rate, throws. Basically, he's got six pitches.

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He only throws his cutter one percent of the time,

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but his four mmer is only ninety two point one

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miles an hour. He only throws a ten percent, so

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he's learned to pitch without it, but his other pitches

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have not been that impressive. Jose Burials a guy that

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always seems to outplay his advanced stats. Four point h

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two eras won. He's nine to five on the season,

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sixteen to eleven last year, so he's has some pretty

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good win loss numbers for Toronto, and though win loss

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is probably the least important number out of all of them.

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Four point zh two ERA, four point seven to expected,

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one point two nine whip, also a lot of blue.

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The only thing he's better than league average in is

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chase rate fifty second percent, walk rate fifty third. So

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he's the guy that can get hit. Also throws five

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pitches as four seen were only eighteen percent of the time,

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two miles an hour less than a normal right hand er.

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So we got two guys here that I think can

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get hit, and we've got Houston team that's pretty desperate.

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But you know, so is Toronto. They got the Yankees

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right on them there, and as you mentioned, Trig that

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you think the Yankees a while back, you said they

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were going to pass them. They're playing a lot better ball,

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although they didn't work out for him yesterday, but I

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would not be surprised by that at all. Uh So

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we're getting the Toronto about a one thirty favorite. I

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prefer Toronto slightly, but I don't really want to lay

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a number that size. If I could get a one twenty,

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I believe it opens my Pinnacle's got a one twenty

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five right now. But if it got down to one twenty,

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I may be interested in Toronto, But anything more than that,

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I gotta take a second look at it. A lot

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of these games today, it's getaway day on just about

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every team in the American excuse me, the National League,

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but in the American League they're all continuing on, continuing on.

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Tomorrow will be there getaway day. So there's a few

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of those getaway days today and some of them are

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during the day. Those are the ones that I like

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to play the Unders on, but we'll get to those

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a little bit later. As of right now, this is

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probably a pass for me unless some money comes out

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on Houston.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, won the five dollars play yesterday the Cubs guys,

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which I gave out on this show yesterday, and three

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five percent plays this week, so MLB's going pretty well

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for me. Go to waygetalk dot com and see what

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we have available. I have already put my MLB slate

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out for the day so you can catch that. I'm

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sure these two gentlemen will have something up as well.

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Free plays too, free plays galore. Go to Wagertalk dot

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com and click free plays and you'll see them all.

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Regarding this one, I do like Toronto's lineup a lot

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better than Houston, and I do like their bullpen slightly

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better than Houston. So starting pitching my numbers like Jason

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Alexander from Seinfeld, but I don't like him at all.

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And you look at his last few starts, He's given

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up ten and runs in his last four starts. His

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expected numbers are a lot better than his current numbers.

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I just I still don't like him for some reason.

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He doesn't pass my eye test looking at Barrios. So

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with all those factors, normally my instinct as a Kappa

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would be to lean towards the blue Jays. Now, if

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I'm going to lean towards the Blue Jays, want to

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check out the pitcher and how he does against this

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team in his career, which is pretty good. He's got

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pretty good numbers against them, one hundred and nine at

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bats against, just a two twenty nine average against and

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a six seventy six ops. And I know people in

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the chat who have nothing better to do are going

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to say, you're pronouncing his name wrong. It's Barrios, who cares,

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Let's just win some money. And what bothers me is

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his era at home is worse than it is on

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the road. This park is a launching pad, lots of runs.

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His last start, he gave up to earned in two innings.

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I'm not sure do you guys know why he only

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went two innings in his last.

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Speaker 3: Start, I believe heured. I believe.

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Speaker 4: I see he only gave up two runs and two innings.

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It's not really normally a license to pull someone. But anyways,

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so he did get rocked a little by the reds Uh.

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He gave up two to the Marlins. Before that, he

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gave up six to the Rangers zero and then three two, two, four.

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So he's very inconsistent. So I just don't really feel

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like doing it. If if Toronto had maybe Gussman on

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the mound today, I would definitely back him. But Maria's

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tough to trust in this spot. But if I bet it,

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Toronto would be the way.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, both Pitcher's tough to trust. If I bet it,

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it's going to be the over. Because I don't agree

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with that that nine reduced juice even I don't even

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really agree with the nine flat. To be perfectly honest

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with you, I make the number nine and a half

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here obviously, as I talked about yesterday in a game

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that ended up I think we talked about over nine

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with the Nats Marlins. It ended up getting there pretty easily.

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That nine flat is kind of key. So even though

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it's only a half run if I make something nine

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and a half and the totals nine, and in this

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case it's actually a reduced nine, which means some sites

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might give you the eight and a half at not

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a terrible price. I gotta look to the over I'll

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just i'll before I even get to the bullpens, there's

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chances for runs of both starting pitchers. So the got

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Jose Barrios bottom bottom ten percent in the league in

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barrel rate. You know, just expected era's up near five.

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Expected batting averages is over too sixty. There's runs to

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be had there, in my opinion, especially with I know

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the Astros get like have gotten some heat for their

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their offensive production of late. This is still a lineup

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that can be good and also can handle a guy

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like like Barrios. On the other side, Jason Alexander, I'm

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still not sure he's like a big league starter. I

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know he's I know he's had some success this year.

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But when I was kind of watching this, so he's

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been in three different organizations now I believe I want

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to say he spent time with the Brewers, the A's.

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This is all within like the past year or two,

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he was at Triple A with all three of them.

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Never at any that I was I like, oh, this

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guy's good, like really good at triple A, and so

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now that he's had a little success in the big leagues,

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it's that to me is a red flag for me personally.

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Chase rate bottom one percent in the league, not good.

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Hard hit rate bottom ten percent in the league, not good.

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You know, throws ninety ninety one. It like, doesn't have

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a plus fastball. He's another one of these guys like

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four pitches, so he can mix it up a little bit,

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but doesn't really have a plus pitch anywhere As Tokyo

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Brandon said, the Blue Jays are still very strong lineup.

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So while he can get away with that over maybe

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the course of you know, like he can accumulate decent numbers,

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he's probably a guy that's gonna get blown up at

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some point, especially by a better lineup. It's just I

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just don't see anything on his sort of resume, like

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mix of pitches, what he does that the Blue Jays

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can't handle. So those are two guys starters that I

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think could get hit. Blue Jay's bullpen. I said, this

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last week has been bad, like if you go if

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you take their win streak out of it, which was

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I think May through June you go back to like July.

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Speaker 2: First, this is a bullpen.

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Speaker 1: That's had like a like a five and a half

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close to six e r. So again, can they give

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up runs late? Of course, what did the Astros do yesterday?

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They choked the game away late. That can carry over

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a little bit, especially inside the same series, because suddenly

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you know, no one, no one on the Blue Jays

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is fearing anyone the Astros are gonna put out there

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at the end of the game. They already got to

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them once. So under over nine here seems like a

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good bet. There's just there's just runs all through this,

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this nine innings with these two teams and these two offenses.

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Speaker 2: So I like the overnight. Sorry Bry go ahead.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. I just want to point out Barrios did not

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pitch well. He went two innings, gave up seven hits,

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six runs, only two of them was earned. So it

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wasn't the game that a pitcher was thrown out. That

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was my mistake on that. And I do want to

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point out the I use Fangrass Russ resorts. They do

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a terrific job, but they did not update any relief

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pitcher pitches for the for today's game, So I'm going

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blind without having to look it up, and I just

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don't have the time right now, so I can't give

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you that information on who's going to be available out

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of the bullpens today. So that's a little homework for

239
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everybody because that's not up right now, and I just

240
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don't have the time to go individually box score to

241
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box score to get it. So we're running a little

242
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bit short on that today. All right.

243
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Speaker 2: Clint Harrelson Fitness.

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Speaker 1: I think that's the first time I've seen him in

245
00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:37,840
the live chat, So welcome, and Clint, if you're just

246
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finding the show, you've been here the whole time. We

247
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appreciate that, we appreciate the comments. We'll get to your

248
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game because this sort of keeps us in that conversation

249
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of the American League and teams that are in the mix.

250
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He wants to discuss Brew Creue Rangers under that was

251
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one so I never got I never got to the

252
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window with client play yesterday, which was actually good because

253
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my leans went like three and three. Now, good enough

254
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for me is that I use the Cubs for the

255
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parlay and I use the Rangers for my free pick video.

256
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So everyone out there thinks I was like two to

257
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oh yesterday, but full disclosure, I'm actually pretty content with

258
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passing because the other stuff would have lost, and I'm

259
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certain Brian Leonard that I would have picked the wrong one,

260
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just how it goes. But the Rangers, I did a

261
00:13:22,840 --> 00:13:26,000
video for this one yesterday, gave out the Rangers twelve

262
00:13:26,039 --> 00:13:27,919
to one to win the Al West. I thought that

263
00:13:27,919 --> 00:13:31,279
that was worth a shot at the price going into yesterday.

264
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I bet it's not as good now with the Astros

265
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blowing that game and the Rangers winning, and I gave

266
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out the Rangers to win and they got it done.

267
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Clint says Brewku Rangers. So this is again much bigger

268
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game for the Rangers. As we've kind of discussed this

269
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whole last couple of weeks with the Brewers going through

270
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the motions, these games really aren't that important for them.

271
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Speaker 2: He also wants to talk totals, so we'll go to you,

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00:13:53,879 --> 00:13:56,440
Brian Brewers, Rangers. What do you see here?

273
00:13:57,159 --> 00:14:00,960
Speaker 3: Ready? Per luptim ere Ole Kelly par Altar is about

274
00:14:00,960 --> 00:14:03,759
a one one thirty favorite total is seven and a

275
00:14:03,759 --> 00:14:06,799
half to the under strong to the under under one

276
00:14:06,840 --> 00:14:10,159
fifteen to twenty two. I'm seeing out there. Uh, yes,

277
00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:14,360
Milwaukee doesn't need to win the games. But with a

278
00:14:14,360 --> 00:14:17,799
Wheeler out now for the season, Breddy par Alta, I mean,

279
00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:20,080
he's not going to win the cy young, but take

280
00:14:20,080 --> 00:14:22,080
a look at these numbers. Sixteen to five on the

281
00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:25,159
season with a two point five o ERA, his whip

282
00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:28,240
is one point oh seven. Uh, he's having a terrific

283
00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:30,679
run right now, and I don't know if I want

284
00:14:30,720 --> 00:14:37,480
to bet against him while he's in the lineup. For myself,

285
00:14:37,519 --> 00:14:39,960
the guy's on a roll and nobody else has been

286
00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:43,000
able to hit him. Why would be this Texas team

287
00:14:43,519 --> 00:14:46,399
who is missing I believe two of their top three

288
00:14:46,480 --> 00:14:48,639
hitters in the lineup. How are they going to be

289
00:14:48,639 --> 00:14:50,600
able to get to him? I think Milwaukee w'll have

290
00:14:50,679 --> 00:14:52,679
some success here. I think the under is probably a

291
00:14:52,679 --> 00:14:55,360
good thing to look for here. Unfortunately, I don't have

292
00:14:55,440 --> 00:14:59,799
the pitching, the bullpen numbers. See who's going to be available.

293
00:15:00,159 --> 00:15:01,799
But I don't want to go against Peralta, and I

294
00:15:01,799 --> 00:15:06,000
don't trust this Texas offense when you're looking at his

295
00:15:06,039 --> 00:15:09,320
opponent here, Kelly's been very good his entire career. A

296
00:15:09,360 --> 00:15:11,759
guy that doesn't get a lot of credit, but he's

297
00:15:11,759 --> 00:15:13,960
got a you know in seven seasons three point seven

298
00:15:13,960 --> 00:15:16,039
to one era one point one nine whip. That's a

299
00:15:16,039 --> 00:15:19,039
pretty good picture. Take a look at his seconds page.

300
00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:21,320
The one thing he does very well he gets people

301
00:15:21,360 --> 00:15:24,559
to chase bad pitches eighty eighth percentile and he doesn't

302
00:15:24,559 --> 00:15:27,200
walk a lot in the seventy first percentile. But a

303
00:15:27,240 --> 00:15:28,960
lot of his other stuff is in the blue. He's

304
00:15:29,000 --> 00:15:31,840
not going to dazzle you, but he comes in with

305
00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:34,240
a three point one sixth CRA four point oh four

306
00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:37,600
expected a little bit negative regression coming for him, but

307
00:15:38,720 --> 00:15:41,200
once again, one of these pitchers that go back his

308
00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:44,799
entire career seven years, he is beating his expected era

309
00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:48,600
every single year. He's deceptive and that's the kind of

310
00:15:48,639 --> 00:15:50,440
guy you want, and he's not going to blow you

311
00:15:50,440 --> 00:15:53,279
away with his four seemer only ninety two miles an hour,

312
00:15:54,279 --> 00:15:57,240
but he's got some other pitches. He throws six overall,

313
00:15:57,840 --> 00:16:00,519
although it's got his cutter. His four sings changed for

314
00:16:00,559 --> 00:16:02,799
the ones he uses the most. I like both these pictures.

315
00:16:03,279 --> 00:16:06,159
Don't trust the offenses a little bit here, so yeah,

316
00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:10,120
I would play the under, but it looks like it's

317
00:16:10,159 --> 00:16:13,399
getting close to heading down to seven right now, seven

318
00:16:13,440 --> 00:16:15,759
and a half. So if it's three to three, you

319
00:16:15,799 --> 00:16:17,399
need to get that seven for the under it to

320
00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:19,919
get the winstart of the time, So make sure if

321
00:16:19,919 --> 00:16:21,919
you do like the under, you play that now. And

322
00:16:22,360 --> 00:16:23,720
that would be the way that I would lean on

323
00:16:23,759 --> 00:16:25,759
this one. It's an early game, by the way, eleven

324
00:16:25,840 --> 00:16:27,200
thirty five Pacific.

325
00:16:28,879 --> 00:16:32,519
Speaker 4: Yeah, along the same lines as Brian. If you look

326
00:16:32,559 --> 00:16:35,200
at how both of these pitchers have performed against the

327
00:16:35,279 --> 00:16:39,679
other team, both of them have been amazing. Actually, Meryl

328
00:16:39,759 --> 00:16:42,039
Kelly forty seven at bats against a one to twenty

329
00:16:42,039 --> 00:16:45,399
eight average and a three eighty two opis's four hundred

330
00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:51,039
points under my Mendoza line, and peralta two twenty nine

331
00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:53,279
average and thirty five at bats against with a six

332
00:16:53,399 --> 00:16:55,759
fifty six. So actually Meryl Kelly has a little bit

333
00:16:55,799 --> 00:16:58,080
better numbers. So the next thing I would look at

334
00:16:58,120 --> 00:17:01,360
is how are they hitting. I got the Rangers ranked

335
00:17:01,639 --> 00:17:04,920
nineteen in current form, which is a little bit below average,

336
00:17:04,920 --> 00:17:09,640
and I got the Milwaukee Brewers ranked sixteen, which is

337
00:17:10,319 --> 00:17:15,839
just a smidge below average. Bullpens a little dicey here

338
00:17:15,839 --> 00:17:20,440
and there, Rangers a little above average, Milwaukee a little

339
00:17:20,440 --> 00:17:26,079
below average. So overall, I think with the semi mediocre

340
00:17:26,279 --> 00:17:31,799
form current form for both lineups, instead of trusting the bullpens,

341
00:17:32,319 --> 00:17:34,359
just go with the starting pitchers here, I think the

342
00:17:34,440 --> 00:17:36,400
first five under three and a half would be the

343
00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:38,279
way to go. As a matter of fact, I'm going

344
00:17:38,319 --> 00:17:41,559
to make that my parlay lake is the first five

345
00:17:41,799 --> 00:17:45,960
under three and a half. Right now, it looks like,

346
00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:49,480
let's see you on the second total first half, it's

347
00:17:49,519 --> 00:17:53,279
actually four under four at minus one twenty two on Pinnacle.

348
00:17:53,319 --> 00:17:59,519
Speaker 3: What do you see, Brian, I let's see here, first half?

349
00:18:00,079 --> 00:18:06,240
Uh total? Yeah, four four, Yeah, we're looking well, it's

350
00:18:06,279 --> 00:18:09,880
three and a half overs one thirty five four four

351
00:18:10,039 --> 00:18:12,039
minus maybe about one twenty.

352
00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:14,480
Speaker 4: For the parlay. What do you think would be fair

353
00:18:14,720 --> 00:18:15,319
to put out?

354
00:18:17,079 --> 00:18:21,480
Speaker 3: One twenty one? Twenty one twenty five would be the

355
00:18:21,519 --> 00:18:23,880
way it would be on the under. Right now, you're

356
00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:25,160
getting plus money on the over.

357
00:18:27,319 --> 00:18:30,559
Speaker 1: So that's Brewers, Bruise Rangers, Brewers, just so I have it,

358
00:18:30,839 --> 00:18:31,599
Bruise Rangers.

359
00:18:31,599 --> 00:18:34,079
Speaker 2: First five under four is roughly minus one twenty five.

360
00:18:34,519 --> 00:18:35,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like it.

361
00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:38,599
Speaker 4: Let's do that. Some people saying they get four and

362
00:18:38,599 --> 00:18:40,480
a half, but I think that's all so.

363
00:18:40,960 --> 00:18:43,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, an all, yeah, that under four.

364
00:18:45,119 --> 00:18:47,400
Speaker 4: Pretty much everyone will be able to get a four probably,

365
00:18:47,519 --> 00:18:48,640
so let's do that.

366
00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:51,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely I agree with that.

367
00:18:51,799 --> 00:18:54,799
Speaker 1: I so first sort of opinion on this game very

368
00:18:54,799 --> 00:18:57,079
similar to the side on on the last game.

369
00:18:57,119 --> 00:18:59,160
Speaker 2: I kind of got going on the total.

370
00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:01,480
Speaker 1: Didn't really on the side in the Blue Jays game,

371
00:19:01,519 --> 00:19:03,720
but didn't really feel like one of those teams should

372
00:19:03,759 --> 00:19:06,559
be like favored over the other, like a substantial favorite

373
00:19:06,559 --> 00:19:09,599
over the other, kind of how I feel here. I

374
00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:12,519
don't really see why the Brewers would be a dollar

375
00:19:12,640 --> 00:19:15,680
forty dollars thirty five dollars forty favorite in this scenario.

376
00:19:16,160 --> 00:19:19,440
That being said, you know, this Brewers team is still

377
00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:23,640
an elite baseball team, and I guess my concern from

378
00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:27,240
a you know standpoint of backing the Rangers here would

379
00:19:27,319 --> 00:19:29,920
be they are going to show up for some of

380
00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:32,240
these games, right, Like the Brewers are just not gonna

381
00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:35,640
you know, they they're not gonna lose out, okay, And

382
00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:39,400
when the Brewers do, when they are interested and they

383
00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:41,759
are playing good ball. This is still a team that's

384
00:19:41,759 --> 00:19:45,839
eighty nine and fifty seven a plus one seventy run differential,

385
00:19:46,519 --> 00:19:49,640
arguably the best team in the league, one of the

386
00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:51,240
best teams in the league, I think we can all

387
00:19:51,279 --> 00:19:55,200
agree is the case. So the way I look at it, like,

388
00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:57,400
even though I think the Rangers have a great shot here,

389
00:19:57,680 --> 00:20:01,039
they've obviously have more to play for. They're playing great

390
00:20:01,079 --> 00:20:05,240
ball right now, I feel like yesterday was maybe the

391
00:20:05,319 --> 00:20:08,960
spot to back the Rangers, and now you're kind of

392
00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:11,599
asking for it, fading Freddie Paralton that that's kind of

393
00:20:11,599 --> 00:20:14,599
how I feel just about the game in general. So

394
00:20:14,799 --> 00:20:19,000
even though I have no interest at Brewers plus laying

395
00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:22,400
a dollar thirty five dollars with the Brewers, going back

396
00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:24,519
to what we've talked about this whole time, it's just

397
00:20:25,039 --> 00:20:27,720
these get even with the losses yesterday, Like these are

398
00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:28,599
just not.

399
00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:30,720
Speaker 2: Crucial games for this Brewers team.

400
00:20:31,079 --> 00:20:32,519
Speaker 1: They're six and a half, they have a six and

401
00:20:32,519 --> 00:20:35,400
a half game lead in their own division, they have

402
00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:38,000
a four game lead on the Phillies for the best record.

403
00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:40,960
Speaker 2: They're still on the road.

404
00:20:41,039 --> 00:20:43,559
Speaker 1: I could absolutely see the Brewers maybe waking up that

405
00:20:43,759 --> 00:20:46,839
home because they obviously have their home bands to play for.

406
00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:49,799
But right now you're just you can't lay a dollar

407
00:20:49,839 --> 00:20:54,039
forty on the road with the Brewers. It's it's it's crazy.

408
00:20:54,599 --> 00:20:57,000
Do I want to take the Rangers and bet against them,

409
00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:00,240
not really because I respect Paralta, So that makes the

410
00:21:00,319 --> 00:21:02,759
side handicap here virtually impossible for me.

411
00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:05,480
Speaker 2: Just not a game I'm gonna get involved with TV.

412
00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:07,440
Speaker 1: I can't really argue with you know, you think in

413
00:21:07,519 --> 00:21:10,759
these pictures could could come out and get through five

414
00:21:10,799 --> 00:21:14,200
with limited damage. So I'll uh, I hope you're right there.

415
00:21:14,279 --> 00:21:16,559
That's that's probably the best way to play this one.

416
00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:19,440
Speaker 4: Especially Kelly. I actually think Baralta is the better picture.

417
00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:22,440
But Kelly, his numbers against the Brewers in a huge

418
00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:26,720
sample size amazing, So yeah, I think it's a safe Yeah.

419
00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:31,839
Speaker 1: Remember, Meryl Kelly comes from the National League's he's you

420
00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:35,160
know this this, he's had a exposure and sometimes take

421
00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:36,799
a point, I'll leave this on before we go to

422
00:21:36,839 --> 00:21:40,759
the next game. Sometimes batter to pitcher exposure is not

423
00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:45,079
always bad for the pitcher because it's a double edged sword.

424
00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:48,400
Like sometimes I think the quick exposure sometimes hurts the

425
00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:51,240
pitcher where it's like they just saw you six days ago.

426
00:21:51,759 --> 00:21:54,720
But if you've seen batters and you have a good

427
00:21:54,720 --> 00:21:57,160
game plan, like especially like a veteran like Meryl Kelly,

428
00:21:57,400 --> 00:21:59,119
where you have a good idea of how you want

429
00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:02,839
to attack a line that could be advantage Pitcher too.

430
00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:05,680
So that's a good I think that's a good point.

431
00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:08,319
Double Jacks Wilett said, Brewers down to minus one twenty six.

432
00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:10,680
I bet online it wouldn't surprise me to see the

433
00:22:10,759 --> 00:22:13,880
Rangers take some money there minus I mean, this was

434
00:22:13,920 --> 00:22:16,279
Brewers minus one forty like before we got on the show,

435
00:22:16,279 --> 00:22:18,920
minus one thirty five, minus one forty. That's quite an

436
00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:22,759
inflated number in my opinion, just when you consider like

437
00:22:23,319 --> 00:22:26,039
where both of these teams are at this point, how

438
00:22:26,079 --> 00:22:29,160
badly the Rangers need this game, how they're playing, that's

439
00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:30,319
a very inflated number.

440
00:22:30,319 --> 00:22:32,200
Speaker 2: I can't believe it.

441
00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:34,599
Speaker 1: Was as high as that. That being said, I'm not

442
00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:38,440
going to be fading the Brewers here. Okay, let's see.

443
00:22:38,519 --> 00:22:39,559
I want to go back to.

444
00:22:41,079 --> 00:22:42,240
Speaker 2: The chat.

445
00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:46,960
Speaker 1: Brian is very happy about your call in Pirates Oreos yesterday.

446
00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:49,599
I saw a lot of people thanking you for that call.

447
00:22:49,799 --> 00:22:51,920
If you missed it, it was part of our parlay.

448
00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:55,279
Brian gave out the first five under in Pirates Orioles.

449
00:22:55,319 --> 00:22:58,960
It was an easy winner. And so Markinsen wants to

450
00:22:59,000 --> 00:23:01,920
go back there because and we got to go back.

451
00:23:01,759 --> 00:23:02,759
Speaker 2: There for two reasons.

452
00:23:02,799 --> 00:23:06,680
Speaker 1: One, these are my two babies playing each other, which

453
00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:08,440
is unfortunate because I want to bet on both of

454
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:10,319
these teams and they're playing each other. Brian, that's that's

455
00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:16,720
unfortunate for me. Two, it's Paul Skeene's day. So Pirates Orioles.

456
00:23:16,759 --> 00:23:19,519
You know you had the under nailed yesterday. My guess is,

457
00:23:19,559 --> 00:23:23,400
without having looked at it the line yet, probably not

458
00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:25,319
a ton of value in the under department when Paul

459
00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:28,720
Skeens is on the mound. But man, like these two teams,

460
00:23:28,759 --> 00:23:31,880
they're they're they're both playing good ball. It's tough for me.

461
00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:33,519
It's tough to fade either of these teams. Are you

462
00:23:33,559 --> 00:23:35,359
trying to go back to Pirates Orioles today?

463
00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:40,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, two young teams that continue they you know, Baltimore

464
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:44,240
had the expectations coming into the season, they were quickly

465
00:23:44,279 --> 00:23:46,119
out of it and they had to bring up some

466
00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:48,279
other guys and so they got a lot of younger

467
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:51,839
guys playing. And Pittsburgh their whole team is basically younger guys,

468
00:23:51,880 --> 00:23:55,119
so other than Tommy fam and maybe a couple others.

469
00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:59,799
So yeah, two teams stowing their fans that yes, they

470
00:24:00,079 --> 00:24:02,920
got something to look forward to next year, we've got

471
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:06,119
Skins coming in about a one forty more like a

472
00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:08,720
one to fifty favorite here total seven and a half

473
00:24:08,759 --> 00:24:10,799
to the under. I do want to say, since we've

474
00:24:10,839 --> 00:24:13,079
talked about the Houston Toronto game, the Blue Jays, we've

475
00:24:13,079 --> 00:24:16,240
gotten hit across the board. They're a little bit higher here.

476
00:24:16,279 --> 00:24:20,759
But getting back to the Pittsburgh game, Paul skiins on

477
00:24:20,799 --> 00:24:24,160
his way to the Sally Young Award ten and nine record,

478
00:24:24,799 --> 00:24:27,200
but at one point nine eighty RA two point five

479
00:24:27,279 --> 00:24:31,160
seven expected zero point nine to four whip. Everything on

480
00:24:31,279 --> 00:24:35,039
his statcast page is blue. Excuse me, red, excuse me red.

481
00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:39,599
He's very good. He's got seven different pitches. A hard

482
00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:42,079
hit rate in the fifty nine percentile is the worst

483
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:44,960
thing he has, and being pitching at Pittsbrigg is a

484
00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:47,440
pretty good pitcher's ballpark. He doesn't get hurt by that

485
00:24:47,519 --> 00:24:50,960
at all. And he's going up against Tyler Wells back

486
00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:54,599
from injury three point six to oh ERA two point

487
00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:58,079
five seven to five expected one point zero zero whip.

488
00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:00,400
So he's only pitched the one game, but he five

489
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:03,839
and he's got four strikeouts and look pretty impressive. Chase

490
00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:07,799
Right was good, his walk grate was good. But his

491
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:12,920
additional information is basically in the blue He's a guy

492
00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:17,160
for his career in five seasons four point oh five ERA,

493
00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:20,519
one point four whip. Considering he's pitched in the America

494
00:25:20,599 --> 00:25:22,640
League in Baltimore, in that division where you got to

495
00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:25,599
face you know, the Yankees and the Red Sox and

496
00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:27,440
the Blue Jays. Batch all the time said he's not

497
00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:30,240
a bad pitcher, he's about league average. I would qualify

498
00:25:30,319 --> 00:25:35,000
him in that regard for myself. In this game, I

499
00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:38,279
think Pittsburgh will perform very well with Skins on the mound,

500
00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:42,599
but with wells if he pitches anything like he did

501
00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:45,240
in that first game, it'll be a lower scoring game

502
00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:48,480
total seven and a half. If he got down to seven,

503
00:25:48,519 --> 00:25:51,359
I probably would not play. This is still since they

504
00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:54,640
moved defenses in a little bit, I mean thirteen feet

505
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:57,119
since last year. It's more of a good hitters park.

506
00:25:57,240 --> 00:25:59,599
So I'm going to probably lay off of this game.

507
00:25:59,599 --> 00:26:05,279
There's other games on the board, and but yeah, maybe

508
00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:08,200
maybe play something with a lot of the young Baltimore batters,

509
00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:11,079
maybe skiing strakeoffs or something to that effect. But that's

510
00:26:11,079 --> 00:26:13,880
not my priority. That's Brandon does that kind of thing.

511
00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:15,440
So we'll see what he has to say about that.

512
00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:21,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, my baseball card is out for today, guys, so

513
00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:24,559
go to wajatalk dot com and see what is available.

514
00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:30,119
I'm sure my comrades here, my Russian comrades here will

515
00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:32,759
have plays up and we always have free plays out

516
00:26:32,799 --> 00:26:36,640
as well. Go to the replay and leave a comment. Please.

517
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:40,519
Does goes a long way, especially in football season. WAYJA

518
00:26:40,559 --> 00:26:44,359
talk will say, Hey, people are still talking baseball. That's great.

519
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:49,319
So yeah, one hundred and thirty three innings pitched in

520
00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:52,519
a one nine eighty RA I'd say Schiens is pretty good.

521
00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:58,039
He's a decent pitcher. So who's he facing today? He's

522
00:26:58,079 --> 00:27:00,839
facing a lineup that I have ranked twenty one out

523
00:27:00,839 --> 00:27:08,119
of thirty in current form. Pittsburgh's bullpen not real trustworthy

524
00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:11,759
at the moment. I've actually liked their bullpen. I've had

525
00:27:11,759 --> 00:27:14,640
their bullpen ranked top ten certain parts of the season,

526
00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:18,759
but right now they're they're not performing that well. I

527
00:27:18,839 --> 00:27:23,440
have them slightly under average right now. I think the

528
00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:26,960
Baltimore team total in the first five one and a

529
00:27:27,039 --> 00:27:30,519
half now, I honestly I said this on yesterday's show.

530
00:27:30,559 --> 00:27:33,680
I really MLB one and a half's in the first

531
00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:36,119
five are really dangerous. A bloop and of blast and

532
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:40,920
your bed is dead. But Skeens is just special. I mean,

533
00:27:41,079 --> 00:27:44,359
there's there's there are probably five pitchers in MLB that

534
00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:47,640
are just special, and he's definitely one of the top two.

535
00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:51,319
He's just special. And I don't think Baltimore is going

536
00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:53,039
to score two runs on him. As a matter of fact,

537
00:27:53,519 --> 00:27:55,720
Skeens has only given up more than one run in

538
00:27:55,839 --> 00:28:01,240
three of his last ten starts. So seventy shot at

539
00:28:01,279 --> 00:28:04,160
winning a bet, Yeah, I think that's a decent bet.

540
00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:06,720
So that's probably the way I would go in this one.

541
00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:11,519
Speaker 2: Yeah. I like the pirates here, I like schemes TB.

542
00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:13,119
I agree with a lot of what you're saying.

543
00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:16,559
Speaker 1: I think this Orioles lineup for as much as I

544
00:28:16,599 --> 00:28:19,240
think they play the underdog role well right now.

545
00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:21,839
Speaker 2: And they've got some young stuff, you know, young.

546
00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:25,079
Speaker 1: Pieces to like about the future, it's still it's still

547
00:28:25,119 --> 00:28:27,720
a very young lineup at times, and one that I

548
00:28:27,759 --> 00:28:31,640
think KIT can be dominated by, like tip top pitching.

549
00:28:32,319 --> 00:28:35,200
You know it'll go forgotten at this point, but we

550
00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:37,799
saw a very good pitcher dominate this lineup over the weekend,

551
00:28:37,839 --> 00:28:40,839
and Yamamoto it's just no One remembers that because of

552
00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:41,880
how that game ended.

553
00:28:42,079 --> 00:28:43,319
Speaker 2: And that's the thing, Like they're.

554
00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:47,000
Speaker 1: They're so young that like they don't know better, so

555
00:28:47,039 --> 00:28:50,119
they're gonna, you know, it's just gonna be very sporadic.

556
00:28:50,160 --> 00:28:52,359
And they can go from getting literally no hit for

557
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:56,240
eight innings to seeing a different pitcher and kind of

558
00:28:56,279 --> 00:28:58,680
like rallying. And I think the energy is great, but

559
00:28:58,799 --> 00:29:01,519
like it's it's still a young lineup that could be

560
00:29:01,799 --> 00:29:02,960
I think is is.

561
00:29:05,599 --> 00:29:08,240
Speaker 2: Prone to being like just wiped out by a guy

562
00:29:08,359 --> 00:29:09,079
like Skiens.

563
00:29:09,279 --> 00:29:12,160
Speaker 1: You know, give me, give me this this Orioles lineup

564
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:15,119
against you know, maybe like a like a mid level

565
00:29:15,119 --> 00:29:18,039
pitcher from one of the Al East teams that's overvalued. Yeah,

566
00:29:18,039 --> 00:29:20,640
I'll take that all day against Skiens. I want no

567
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:22,680
part I like the Pirates. Do I want to lay

568
00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:25,720
a dollar forty five with the Pirates? Not really, but uh,

569
00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:30,680
it would be Pirates, Skiings. Find a way to play

570
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:34,359
the Pirates or Schemes doing something good. Maybe an under

571
00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:36,599
no play here for me, but that's the only way

572
00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:37,559
I could go ahead, Brian.

573
00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:41,039
Speaker 3: The only drawback is we all know Colorado's the worst

574
00:29:41,039 --> 00:29:42,880
team on the road to Major League Baseball. They've won

575
00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:45,640
seventeen games on the road this season. The next first

576
00:29:45,799 --> 00:29:48,079
is the Pirates, a twenty two wins on the season,

577
00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:50,920
and you're getting a Baltimore team who's pretty hot. There's

578
00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:54,640
seven to three of their last ten. Yeah, there's there's

579
00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:56,960
always drawbacks when you've got skins on the mound because

580
00:29:56,960 --> 00:30:00,000
they don't hit for them and they have not played

581
00:30:00,119 --> 00:30:02,839
well on the road. So I'll be setting it out,

582
00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:07,240
but yeah, maybe get some strikeouts. Maybe that's how you approach.

583
00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:11,839
Speaker 4: That game pays in point. He's the best, he's the

584
00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:14,440
one of the two best pitchers in MLB and he's

585
00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:15,359
ten and nine.

586
00:30:15,559 --> 00:30:19,480
Speaker 1: So yeah, I guess to take it a step further

587
00:30:19,519 --> 00:30:22,200
if you did, if you didn't want to go TV's route,

588
00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:24,480
which is like a team total under because there's less

589
00:30:24,559 --> 00:30:27,359
room for for air. You know, Tyler Wells threw the

590
00:30:27,359 --> 00:30:31,319
ball pretty good throughout his rehab. Pittsburgh really doesn't hit

591
00:30:31,319 --> 00:30:34,000
on the road either. That this is one of the

592
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:36,680
worst offensive teams in baseball. I know they've they've been

593
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:39,160
better of late, they've kind of found ways to get

594
00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:39,880
hot and stuff.

595
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:42,599
Speaker 2: But you know, Tyler Wells, I thought he threw it

596
00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:43,240
pretty good.

597
00:30:43,079 --> 00:30:46,160
Speaker 1: At in his rehab outings last time out, first big

598
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:48,559
league similar to Kyle Brad. So Kyle Bradish is the

599
00:30:48,599 --> 00:30:51,039
guy we talked about yesterday. Tyler Wells had a very

600
00:30:51,119 --> 00:30:53,759
long drawn out rehab. They didn't need to rush him back.

601
00:30:53,799 --> 00:30:56,079
There was no reason to to sort of get him

602
00:30:56,079 --> 00:30:58,119
back to the big league level. They let him get

603
00:30:58,160 --> 00:30:59,839
back to speed and then what do you what did

604
00:30:59,880 --> 00:31:02,759
you last time out? Comes out in San Diego? Five

605
00:31:02,839 --> 00:31:05,480
pretty strong innings. He went five innings, two runs on,

606
00:31:05,559 --> 00:31:08,359
five hit, zero walks, four strikeouts. So maybe you go

607
00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:11,319
first five under again, just like Brian did yesterday. It's

608
00:31:11,319 --> 00:31:13,079
hard to see them scoring like more than like three

609
00:31:13,119 --> 00:31:15,079
or four ones. I don't know what the first five unders.

610
00:31:15,079 --> 00:31:16,960
I'm guessing you're gonna have to stay under three and

611
00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:20,319
a half here. It's hard to believe that there's like

612
00:31:20,359 --> 00:31:23,119
a big time offense in the early stages of this game.

613
00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:24,200
So maybe that's the way you go.

614
00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:27,680
Speaker 2: Brian.

615
00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:30,279
Speaker 1: I gotta compliment you on that is a great guardian

616
00:31:30,359 --> 00:31:33,720
tat right there. I know that's some sort of Guardian's

617
00:31:33,839 --> 00:31:37,279
alternate cap. And let's compliment the guardians as well. And

618
00:31:37,359 --> 00:31:40,079
Tokyo Brandon gave him out in the parlay yesterday they

619
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:46,000
win two. Nothing happy to see it because I'm about

620
00:31:46,119 --> 00:31:49,400
had it with the Royals. And Bobby Wood Junior did

621
00:31:49,480 --> 00:31:52,759
come back yesterday, didn't really you know, factor into that game.

622
00:31:52,799 --> 00:31:54,039
Speaker 2: Think he went one for four.

623
00:31:54,359 --> 00:31:57,839
Speaker 1: I guess he's back. Brian, Do you do you have

624
00:31:57,839 --> 00:32:00,440
any faith in your Guardians? I mean they're getting themselves

625
00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:04,000
back in the conversation, and it's like, I don't know

626
00:32:04,039 --> 00:32:06,279
that Logan Allen's necessarily the guy you want to back.

627
00:32:06,359 --> 00:32:08,279
But what are the what are the Royals doing with

628
00:32:08,319 --> 00:32:10,160
their pitching today? Is it going to be a mix

629
00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:11,119
of bullpen arms?

630
00:32:11,119 --> 00:32:11,240
Speaker 3: Like?

631
00:32:11,880 --> 00:32:13,799
Speaker 2: Do you like the Guardians to keep it going at

632
00:32:13,799 --> 00:32:15,839
home here? Yeah?

633
00:32:16,160 --> 00:32:19,319
Speaker 3: Your thought process is the same as mine. We're getting

634
00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:22,559
Cleveland at a cheap number maybe minus one oh five es. Basically,

635
00:32:22,559 --> 00:32:24,759
it's a pick. I'm out there right now, and I

636
00:32:24,839 --> 00:32:28,079
know Boland's going for Kansas City. He's a lefty and

637
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:32,279
he hasn't gotten a lot of action. But Allen is

638
00:32:32,319 --> 00:32:34,920
not a guy I'm looking to back. But yeah, why

639
00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:37,720
is Kansas City? I picked him in this game? Their

640
00:32:37,839 --> 00:32:40,000
season is basically over because the way they played in

641
00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:41,039
the last week.

642
00:32:41,680 --> 00:32:43,000
Speaker 2: Can I jump in real quick?

643
00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:44,279
Speaker 3: Yeah?

644
00:32:44,359 --> 00:32:46,799
Speaker 1: I just want to just so you guys know, and

645
00:32:46,839 --> 00:32:49,720
everyone in the chat knows, Jonathan Bolan pitched on Monday,

646
00:32:49,960 --> 00:32:53,519
So it's like, even though he was a starter at Omaha,

647
00:32:53,599 --> 00:32:56,440
I don't think he's throwing like starter innings here. So

648
00:32:56,519 --> 00:32:58,240
the fact that Bolan's going to start this game after

649
00:32:58,319 --> 00:33:01,119
pitching on Monday suggest that this is probably.

650
00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:02,240
Speaker 2: A bullpen game for the Royals.

651
00:33:02,519 --> 00:33:07,519
Speaker 3: Continue Sorry, Yeah, he's got twenty six games pitched this

652
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:09,680
year and none of them has been a start, So

653
00:33:09,680 --> 00:33:12,319
he's going to be a starter here, just pitching inning

654
00:33:12,400 --> 00:33:16,160
or so. He's got in twenty six games, thirty five

655
00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:19,440
point one inning, so he may go two. And you know,

656
00:33:19,559 --> 00:33:21,920
his numbers haven't been bad three point five seven ERA

657
00:33:22,079 --> 00:33:25,599
three point sixty nine expected one point one three whip.

658
00:33:26,400 --> 00:33:28,960
His walk rates kind of pour a ten point five,

659
00:33:29,079 --> 00:33:31,920
much better than last year seventeen point six. But he's

660
00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:33,640
a guy with a little bit of control issues. But

661
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:35,640
you take a look at his stack gass page. It's

662
00:33:35,839 --> 00:33:38,920
a small number of innings, but this more red than blue.

663
00:33:39,319 --> 00:33:41,599
He hasn't he hasn't done bad. Locan Allen's a guy

664
00:33:42,640 --> 00:33:46,039
who comes in with a He's lost eleven games already

665
00:33:46,079 --> 00:33:48,960
this year, four point four to six era four point

666
00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:52,160
sixty six expected one point four to four whip. He

667
00:33:52,200 --> 00:33:54,680
has been the worst of the Cleveland starters, and when

668
00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:57,880
you got Chacny on that list, that's not a good

669
00:33:57,920 --> 00:34:01,279
thing to say. Uh, Logan Allen. I thought coming into

670
00:34:01,319 --> 00:34:03,000
the season there was a lot of talk that he

671
00:34:03,119 --> 00:34:05,160
was going to be much approved this year. It hasn't happened.

672
00:34:06,079 --> 00:34:08,320
He's got a losing record four point five to seven

673
00:34:08,440 --> 00:34:14,440
career three seasons. Hopefully he's either got it or he

674
00:34:14,599 --> 00:34:17,199
pitches limited innings here, so then get the bullpen involved

675
00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:19,559
a little bit. I think the line is a little

676
00:34:19,559 --> 00:34:21,880
bit cheap on Cleveland, and that would be the way

677
00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:25,679
I would play it. But if if I knew Allen

678
00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:29,000
was limited innings and then get the bullpen in there,

679
00:34:29,039 --> 00:34:32,440
I'd be more willing. Maybe this is a game whereas

680
00:34:32,519 --> 00:34:34,719
the game goes on, you play it by year, play

681
00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:38,320
a little bit on the live betting. Maybe Kennas City

682
00:34:38,400 --> 00:34:40,480
gets out to you to nothing the lead and we

683
00:34:40,519 --> 00:34:43,719
can get to Cleveland the rest of the game with

684
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:45,840
a bullpen that's pitching much better now than they were

685
00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:49,000
earlier this season and we can get that. So just

686
00:34:49,039 --> 00:34:51,719
something to keep involved that I want to be on Cleveland,

687
00:34:51,760 --> 00:34:55,360
but I don't want Logan Allen basically.

688
00:34:56,719 --> 00:35:01,480
Speaker 4: Agree, and of every pitcher that starts today, Logan Allen

689
00:35:01,599 --> 00:35:05,719
has by far the worst numbers against the batters. He's

690
00:35:05,760 --> 00:35:10,320
facing fifty six at bats against, a three ninety three

691
00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:13,840
average against and a one thousand and sixty seven OPS.

692
00:35:14,119 --> 00:35:20,280
That is just rotten, dismal, terrible. Who's doing most of

693
00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:25,000
the damage Bobby Witt Junior and he's a seven for twelve,

694
00:35:25,039 --> 00:35:27,679
So a Bobby Witt Junior hits runs RBIs would be

695
00:35:27,719 --> 00:35:31,039
a decent bet today. He did have a little bit

696
00:35:31,039 --> 00:35:33,360
of a clunker game yesterday, but usually when these guys,

697
00:35:33,400 --> 00:35:36,280
you know, the hitters, the hitters are on like patterns

698
00:35:36,719 --> 00:35:38,559
as well, and when you knock them off the rhythm,

699
00:35:38,639 --> 00:35:40,320
it takes them a game or two to come back.

700
00:35:40,360 --> 00:35:43,840
I mean, I expect Bobby Witt Junior to have a

701
00:35:43,880 --> 00:35:48,320
good game today, and I expect Max Munsey to have

702
00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:50,440
a good game, because when guys come back, it takes

703
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:52,239
him a game or two just to get back into

704
00:35:52,239 --> 00:35:57,000
the rhythm. Bobby Witt Junior has absolutely clobbered Allen in

705
00:35:57,039 --> 00:36:00,480
his career, so I think the Royals for one and

706
00:36:00,519 --> 00:36:04,119
a half in the first five or Bobby with hits

707
00:36:04,199 --> 00:36:06,760
runs RBIs would be a good play in this one.

708
00:36:07,400 --> 00:36:11,360
I don't trust the Royals lineup, but I do think

709
00:36:11,400 --> 00:36:14,639
Bobby wit Junior will probably have a decent game here.

710
00:36:16,320 --> 00:36:18,559
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, like it really is going to come

711
00:36:18,599 --> 00:36:20,599
down to, like how much you trust the Royals bullpen.

712
00:36:20,719 --> 00:36:22,960
So Dan in the chat says Bowling is right handed.

713
00:36:22,960 --> 00:36:24,519
He's been up on roster for a couple of weeks

714
00:36:24,559 --> 00:36:28,800
now pitching long relief. Like he actually has been back

715
00:36:28,800 --> 00:36:32,159
and forth from Kansas City to Omaha eight times this year,

716
00:36:32,599 --> 00:36:34,800
so he has been called up and sent down eight

717
00:36:34,840 --> 00:36:35,480
different times.

718
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:38,280
Speaker 2: It's sort of not a bust. It's part of the

719
00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:38,920
life of.

720
00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:42,320
Speaker 1: Like your back end bullpen guys now, and that that's

721
00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:47,280
just how they treat relievers in baseball now. Once you're what,

722
00:36:47,360 --> 00:36:49,159
Once you're used, and you can't be used for a

723
00:36:49,159 --> 00:36:51,559
couple of days, they option you if you have options,

724
00:36:51,559 --> 00:36:54,320
and they get someone else because the teams don't get

725
00:36:54,400 --> 00:36:57,000
much length out of their starters anymore, and they need

726
00:36:57,039 --> 00:37:00,400
the they need the arms. So the whole whole thing

727
00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:02,079
here though, is like he's not going to pitch more

728
00:37:02,119 --> 00:37:04,920
than two innings because he hasn't for the Royals yet,

729
00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:07,800
and he just pitched on Monday, so you got to figure, Like,

730
00:37:07,960 --> 00:37:10,480
I like Bowling, he's someone that I like, but we're

731
00:37:10,519 --> 00:37:12,320
only gonna get two innings out of him here.

732
00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:14,840
Speaker 2: So what are the Royals gonna do the rest of

733
00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:15,199
the time.

734
00:37:15,239 --> 00:37:17,199
Speaker 1: I mean, they do have some some arms that I

735
00:37:17,239 --> 00:37:20,599
don't mind out of their bullpen, So could they potentially

736
00:37:20,639 --> 00:37:21,360
piece it together?

737
00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:22,679
Speaker 2: Yeah, like they probably could.

738
00:37:22,760 --> 00:37:26,159
Speaker 1: I still don't like this Guardian's lineup, but I don't

739
00:37:26,159 --> 00:37:30,079
know that I'm confident enough in the Royals piecing together

740
00:37:30,239 --> 00:37:32,800
essentially seven innings of bullpen relief.

741
00:37:34,360 --> 00:37:37,280
Speaker 2: They haven't hit at all the Guardians.

742
00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:40,840
Speaker 1: You know, I have my own issues with Logan Allen

743
00:37:41,079 --> 00:37:45,199
the Guardians like, but they are playing good baseball when

744
00:37:45,239 --> 00:37:49,119
it matters, and they've they've looked the more interested team

745
00:37:49,199 --> 00:37:50,199
over the past you know.

746
00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:53,440
Speaker 2: Week or so. So I this is this is a

747
00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:54,159
tough one for me.

748
00:37:54,519 --> 00:37:56,239
Speaker 1: I just like don't really know how to play this

749
00:37:56,360 --> 00:37:58,960
because I'd love to find a spot to take the

750
00:37:59,039 --> 00:38:01,880
Royals in this seas at some point because I just

751
00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:03,880
don't know that the Guardians sweep them.

752
00:38:04,320 --> 00:38:06,559
Speaker 2: But I don't want seven I don't want nine innings

753
00:38:06,599 --> 00:38:07,599
essentially from the Royals.

754
00:38:07,599 --> 00:38:10,840
Speaker 1: Bullpen he could work. That's just not what I really

755
00:38:10,880 --> 00:38:15,079
want to bet on, So I guess, like reluctantly, I'll

756
00:38:15,079 --> 00:38:17,559
call it under. But this is probably one I don't

757
00:38:17,599 --> 00:38:20,800
have action and just well, we'll hope for Brian's sake

758
00:38:20,840 --> 00:38:22,519
that the Guardians just keep winning so he can be

759
00:38:22,639 --> 00:38:25,639
entertained in October. But like, this feels like probably a

760
00:38:25,639 --> 00:38:28,679
low scoring game somehow, even in spite of Logan Allen

761
00:38:29,599 --> 00:38:32,920
mean not liking Logan Allen. I think maybe he pitches

762
00:38:32,960 --> 00:38:35,360
okay here, because I'll go back to what I said yesterday.

763
00:38:35,440 --> 00:38:38,320
This Royal lineup does not fare particularly well against left

764
00:38:38,320 --> 00:38:44,039
handed pitching, so we'll call it under. All right, all right,

765
00:38:44,159 --> 00:38:49,320
let's go. Jesse's got a question. Let's get Jess. Let's

766
00:38:49,320 --> 00:38:51,119
get Jesse schule in here. First of all, thank you

767
00:38:51,159 --> 00:38:55,280
for tuning in Jesse. He wants to know do you

768
00:38:55,360 --> 00:38:58,559
think pitchers on losing teams dial back the ve lo

769
00:38:58,760 --> 00:39:03,440
in these final games to preserve longevity unless fighting for

770
00:39:03,519 --> 00:39:06,760
a roster spot. That's an interesting question. I want to

771
00:39:06,800 --> 00:39:09,920
see if we have a game where we have one

772
00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:12,000
of those guys today. So I'm gonna take a quick

773
00:39:12,039 --> 00:39:14,960
look at games we haven't talked about yet.

774
00:39:17,199 --> 00:39:18,920
Speaker 2: Well, no, we already talked about that game. Let me

775
00:39:19,039 --> 00:39:19,559
let me let.

776
00:39:19,519 --> 00:39:25,280
Speaker 1: Me what about Chris Sale? How about that game? This

777
00:39:25,440 --> 00:39:28,320
kind that that's what about a guy like Sale? Now

778
00:39:28,440 --> 00:39:31,920
you got Braves Cubs. Sale might not be the best

779
00:39:31,960 --> 00:39:34,559
example because I feel like he didn't have much of

780
00:39:34,599 --> 00:39:37,039
a season, so it's like he's just kind of coming out.

781
00:39:37,079 --> 00:39:39,559
He's probably happy to be out there. Brian, do you

782
00:39:39,599 --> 00:39:41,760
have any do you want to answer Jesse's question? And

783
00:39:41,760 --> 00:39:44,280
then we'll take it into Cubs Braves. Since we nailed

784
00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:46,320
this one yesterday, we might as well talk about it today.

785
00:39:47,039 --> 00:39:50,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not so sure. I'm not so sure that

786
00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:54,199
they do. Uh, they're still planning for contracts. They're still

787
00:39:54,199 --> 00:39:58,440
trying to impress, like like in Miami right now with

788
00:39:58,480 --> 00:40:01,920
pres going. He would be my example of that.

789
00:40:02,559 --> 00:40:05,159
Speaker 2: Is, let's talk, Well, would you rather talk that game?

790
00:40:05,639 --> 00:40:06,960
You want to talk that game instead?

791
00:40:07,400 --> 00:40:10,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, if you like. I don't have much on it,

792
00:40:10,440 --> 00:40:13,440
but he's he's a guy that's not pitched well lately,

793
00:40:13,840 --> 00:40:17,400
and he could easily cut back down make sure to

794
00:40:17,559 --> 00:40:20,199
preserve his arm, but he wants to prove himself for

795
00:40:20,239 --> 00:40:22,880
next year. He's a young guy with with a lot

796
00:40:22,880 --> 00:40:25,199
of talent. Uh Sale Sale is going to give you

797
00:40:25,199 --> 00:40:27,239
a hundred percent out there every time, So I don't

798
00:40:27,280 --> 00:40:31,280
think he would be somebody in that regard. But we'll

799
00:40:31,280 --> 00:40:34,519
talk to We'll talk to Washington, UH Miami game here.

800
00:40:34,559 --> 00:40:38,119
Irvin going for Washington. He's struggled as of late, and

801
00:40:38,199 --> 00:40:41,480
Perez has done the same thing. Perez right now is

802
00:40:41,480 --> 00:40:44,079
about a one fifty five favorite total eight and a

803
00:40:44,119 --> 00:40:48,079
half to the under. And we've got two teams right

804
00:40:48,119 --> 00:40:50,119
now that are been out of the playoffs for a while,

805
00:40:50,159 --> 00:40:54,440
especially Washington. But I don't know if I trust Jack

806
00:40:54,480 --> 00:40:56,880
Irvin comes in with a five point seven one ERA

807
00:40:57,079 --> 00:41:01,400
five point seventy four expected one point four. Nothing is good.

808
00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:04,599
In fact, his extension great extension. He's a tall guy

809
00:41:04,760 --> 00:41:07,679
six foot six, so in the ninety fourth percentile, but

810
00:41:09,440 --> 00:41:15,079
single digit percentiles expected the ra fifth with fourth strike

811
00:41:15,159 --> 00:41:19,199
out right, fourth barrel right, fifth hard hit seventh. I

812
00:41:19,199 --> 00:41:21,679
don't want any part of Jake Irv and he he

813
00:41:21,920 --> 00:41:23,960
last two years as the ERA was four point four

814
00:41:24,000 --> 00:41:26,400
to one, four point six to one grant and he's

815
00:41:26,440 --> 00:41:29,440
playing in a division with some pretty good offenses in it.

816
00:41:30,079 --> 00:41:32,119
But he's not a guy I'm looking to back. Eury

817
00:41:32,199 --> 00:41:34,960
Perez Real mixt year. When you take a look at

818
00:41:34,960 --> 00:41:37,280
his stats, comes in with a four point sixty sixth

819
00:41:37,280 --> 00:41:40,920
ERA three point four to one expected at one point one.

820
00:41:40,960 --> 00:41:43,599
Oh whip. He's pitched better than what his numbers suggests,

821
00:41:43,599 --> 00:41:46,400
but he had that string when it came back from

822
00:41:46,400 --> 00:41:50,639
injury and he struggled. Then he was great. Now he's

823
00:41:50,639 --> 00:41:54,079
struggling again. He's up to seventy five minutings last last year,

824
00:41:54,119 --> 00:41:57,480
did not pitch the year before ninety one, so maybe

825
00:41:57,519 --> 00:42:00,239
he's hit the wall here. His ground ball rates only

826
00:42:00,239 --> 00:42:04,320
in the eighth percentile are here rate fifteenth Averajaxson velocity

827
00:42:04,360 --> 00:42:08,679
twenty fourth. So I do have concerns about that. If

828
00:42:08,679 --> 00:42:10,960
I play this game at all, it would be towards

829
00:42:10,960 --> 00:42:13,559
the over. We are looking at an eight and a half.

830
00:42:13,599 --> 00:42:17,480
It's pretty much an eight and a half straight around.

831
00:42:17,519 --> 00:42:20,159
You don't have to play any juice. There so two

832
00:42:20,199 --> 00:42:22,679
young teams that I like the hitting a little bit

833
00:42:22,679 --> 00:42:25,280
better than the pitching at this point, so I would

834
00:42:25,360 --> 00:42:28,679
lean towards the over. But yeah, everything's got to be

835
00:42:28,679 --> 00:42:31,519
taken on an individual basis when it comes to taking

836
00:42:31,519 --> 00:42:33,679
a look at what they're going to do. Some guys

837
00:42:33,679 --> 00:42:37,440
are playing for contracts, some guys playing for the spot

838
00:42:37,480 --> 00:42:40,039
in the rotation. Still, if you end the season in

839
00:42:40,119 --> 00:42:42,280
the rotation, and we'll see this out of the Mets,

840
00:42:42,880 --> 00:42:44,960
that gives a good indication on who they're going to

841
00:42:45,000 --> 00:42:48,719
use to start the rotation the following year. Obviously you've

842
00:42:48,760 --> 00:42:51,159
got to take in injuries into account, but some of

843
00:42:51,199 --> 00:42:54,719
these guys are pitching for next year already and we'll

844
00:42:55,480 --> 00:42:58,079
have to see how it goes for a lot of them.

845
00:42:58,440 --> 00:43:01,239
Speaker 4: To quickly answer the question, I don't think the pitchers

846
00:43:01,280 --> 00:43:04,639
take velocity off because, like Brian said, they're playing for

847
00:43:04,639 --> 00:43:07,360
a contract and they want to look good. They want

848
00:43:07,360 --> 00:43:09,440
to get traded to a good team. If they're on

849
00:43:09,480 --> 00:43:12,239
a bad team, they still they still want to get paid.

850
00:43:13,000 --> 00:43:16,840
What does happen, though, is managers limit their innings going down,

851
00:43:16,920 --> 00:43:21,239
so you're gonna see guys like Schemes or old guys

852
00:43:21,320 --> 00:43:25,840
like Sail. You might start seeing them go shorter outings,

853
00:43:26,119 --> 00:43:29,679
not reaching ninety instead of the one hundred being the ceiling,

854
00:43:29,920 --> 00:43:34,800
ninety being the ceiling for pitch count. That kind of

855
00:43:34,800 --> 00:43:38,159
thing does happen quite often. But the pitcher, if he's

856
00:43:38,159 --> 00:43:41,360
on the mound, he's he's pitching, is his guts out.

857
00:43:42,159 --> 00:43:44,920
That's just how these guys are their competitors, and they've

858
00:43:44,920 --> 00:43:47,320
been doing this since they were six years old. So

859
00:43:47,679 --> 00:43:52,239
onto this game, both pitchers man have been knocked up

860
00:43:52,480 --> 00:43:56,400
pretty hard. Perez just gave up seven earned to this

861
00:43:56,480 --> 00:44:02,679
team in his last start, so that's not good. And

862
00:44:02,800 --> 00:44:05,559
his overall numbers against him not too bad an eight

863
00:44:05,679 --> 00:44:11,639
hundred ops, so not terrible. The game before he gave

864
00:44:11,719 --> 00:44:14,960
up seven to Washington, he gave up five to the Mets,

865
00:44:15,400 --> 00:44:18,440
so that's not instilling a lot of confidence in him.

866
00:44:18,480 --> 00:44:20,480
He did have one good game where he gave up one,

867
00:44:21,000 --> 00:44:22,880
but then the two games before that he gave up

868
00:44:22,920 --> 00:44:27,400
four earned and five earned, so the luster is starting

869
00:44:27,400 --> 00:44:31,840
to wear off. Of very press here, Jake Irvin, here's

870
00:44:31,880 --> 00:44:34,199
a stat for you. In his last five starts, he's

871
00:44:34,239 --> 00:44:40,199
given up twenty six earned runs. That's just awful. So

872
00:44:40,480 --> 00:44:43,039
the first thing my inclination would be look at it over,

873
00:44:43,119 --> 00:44:46,360
so which team's hitting better? I got Washington ranked eight

874
00:44:46,440 --> 00:44:49,480
in hitting and I got Miami's bullpen ranked twenty eight,

875
00:44:49,760 --> 00:44:53,400
so a Washington team total over would be my knee

876
00:44:53,440 --> 00:44:56,960
jerk reaction. I have not analyzed it to see how

877
00:44:57,039 --> 00:45:03,079
much it is, but on on pinnacle, it's only three

878
00:45:03,079 --> 00:45:05,519
and a half at minus one nineteen. I think that's

879
00:45:05,519 --> 00:45:08,719
a pretty nice bet. So that would be how I

880
00:45:08,719 --> 00:45:09,079
would go.

881
00:45:11,360 --> 00:45:13,920
Speaker 1: And this is the scrimmage at this point, like it's

882
00:45:13,960 --> 00:45:18,800
like I have zero faith. I'm just gonna triple down now.

883
00:45:19,519 --> 00:45:22,159
I've now given out in some capacity the over in

884
00:45:22,199 --> 00:45:23,559
this game the past two days.

885
00:45:24,079 --> 00:45:25,760
Speaker 2: On Monday there was twenty two runs.

886
00:45:26,119 --> 00:45:28,480
Speaker 1: I got back and forth in the chat with some

887
00:45:28,519 --> 00:45:31,440
folks on that one, twenty two runs. Yesterday I gave

888
00:45:31,480 --> 00:45:33,039
out over as the way I would play this one

889
00:45:33,079 --> 00:45:35,960
on the show, and it got there with twelve runs

890
00:45:36,000 --> 00:45:40,440
and a big reason I thought that, and is exactly

891
00:45:40,480 --> 00:45:41,719
how yesterday played out.

892
00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:44,199
Speaker 2: I just don't think either of these.

893
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:47,039
Speaker 1: Teams is capable of holding the other one down for

894
00:45:47,239 --> 00:45:50,920
nine innings with what they're throwing out there at this point.

895
00:45:51,320 --> 00:45:53,079
Speaker 2: The Nationals have no bullpen arms.

896
00:45:53,440 --> 00:45:56,639
Speaker 1: The Marlins, who did have some arms that impressed me

897
00:45:56,719 --> 00:45:59,840
for a period of time, have just seemed to collectively

898
00:46:00,079 --> 00:46:02,400
run out of gas and it and it goes to

899
00:46:02,440 --> 00:46:05,000
the bullpen as well. A lot of guys that I

900
00:46:05,039 --> 00:46:09,440
think the Marlins sort of made into these like solid

901
00:46:09,480 --> 00:46:11,920
two three inning guys that you know might help with

902
00:46:12,039 --> 00:46:14,199
their future. I think some of them are gonna be

903
00:46:14,239 --> 00:46:16,920
on the roster, and the guys that that are good

904
00:46:17,039 --> 00:46:20,039
long term, they just look like they've run out of

905
00:46:20,039 --> 00:46:22,280
gas at this point. And you mean to tell me

906
00:46:22,360 --> 00:46:24,480
that if the over is eight and a half, which

907
00:46:24,480 --> 00:46:27,159
means they're gonna they're gonna give you the key number. Yeah,

908
00:46:27,199 --> 00:46:30,360
Like theoretically this should be if I'm looking like Yuri

909
00:46:30,440 --> 00:46:32,679
Perez when he's good can be really good. So that's

910
00:46:32,719 --> 00:46:35,599
the concern, right, the fact that like if he's got

911
00:46:35,599 --> 00:46:38,880
it together, he can come out and throw six seven scoreless,

912
00:46:38,880 --> 00:46:43,000
but you still get to go against Irvin. You're still

913
00:46:43,119 --> 00:46:46,320
likely to get three innings at minimum out of the

914
00:46:46,320 --> 00:46:51,159
Marlins bullpen. Like there's just runs around, Like if over

915
00:46:51,199 --> 00:46:53,320
the course of nine innings there should be run scoring

916
00:46:53,320 --> 00:46:56,920
opportunities in this game. And then you talk about Perez

917
00:46:57,000 --> 00:47:00,840
like he's really struggled the last two times, and this

918
00:47:00,920 --> 00:47:03,639
is a guy that worked very very hard in the

919
00:47:03,679 --> 00:47:06,199
offseason and then to start this year to come back

920
00:47:06,519 --> 00:47:09,360
from a very difficult injury to come back from. So

921
00:47:09,400 --> 00:47:12,599
it's like maybe he's just out of gas too. I'm

922
00:47:12,639 --> 00:47:15,000
actually surprised. I mean, I told you I think I

923
00:47:15,000 --> 00:47:17,920
talked about it going into his last start or maybe

924
00:47:17,920 --> 00:47:20,159
two starts ago, that there's no way they would put

925
00:47:20,159 --> 00:47:21,559
this guy out there if he was a little bit

926
00:47:21,639 --> 00:47:25,119
hurt or injured. Can't ignore the fact that he has

927
00:47:25,159 --> 00:47:27,719
not looked the last two times out like he did

928
00:47:28,440 --> 00:47:30,760
for like a month or two when he really sort

929
00:47:30,800 --> 00:47:33,719
of kind of figured it out and came back from

930
00:47:33,719 --> 00:47:37,519
the injury. And then Jake Irvin, even with the Marlins

931
00:47:37,559 --> 00:47:40,679
downstours and some of their better hitters like Irvin's gonna

932
00:47:40,679 --> 00:47:43,039
give up some runs, and the Nationals bullpen's as bad

933
00:47:43,079 --> 00:47:45,480
as he gets. So you got to go over again here.

934
00:47:46,079 --> 00:47:47,639
Just take your money from the last two days. If

935
00:47:47,639 --> 00:47:50,719
you've been betting this over, just take another over. Otherwise,

936
00:47:51,119 --> 00:47:52,599
have no interest in these two teams.

937
00:47:52,679 --> 00:47:55,800
Speaker 3: Go ahead, bright, Yeah, and this is not a getaway game,

938
00:47:56,559 --> 00:47:58,360
so you don't have to worry about that. They're playing

939
00:47:58,400 --> 00:48:02,480
again tomorrow. If it's okay with you, I'm gonna suggest

940
00:48:02,480 --> 00:48:04,320
a game here because we're getting up against him. We've

941
00:48:04,320 --> 00:48:06,800
only got to go ahead. I'm gonna take a look

942
00:48:06,840 --> 00:48:10,039
here at the Cincinnati San Diego game. Now, a lot

943
00:48:10,079 --> 00:48:13,880
of money is coming in on Cincinnati right now. You

944
00:48:13,920 --> 00:48:17,599
could have gotten Cincinnati on the overnight at one thirty eight.

945
00:48:17,800 --> 00:48:20,199
I'm seeing as low as one twenty at bet MGM

946
00:48:20,320 --> 00:48:23,800
right now in fanatics if you're playing in one of

947
00:48:23,800 --> 00:48:25,840
those states. But a lot of money is coming in

948
00:48:25,920 --> 00:48:28,159
on Cincinnati, and I don't know if I agree with this.

949
00:48:29,119 --> 00:48:31,000
The Reds right now, we're down to five point two

950
00:48:31,000 --> 00:48:33,280
percent chance to make the playoffs. We already know that

951
00:48:33,320 --> 00:48:36,559
the Padres and the Dodgers are basically just playing out

952
00:48:36,599 --> 00:48:40,719
the season. But my question is if anybody knows when

953
00:48:41,639 --> 00:48:45,679
Nick Pavetta signed late with the Padres. He was probably

954
00:48:45,960 --> 00:48:49,880
the best pitching free agent signing in the league, and

955
00:48:49,920 --> 00:48:52,039
he signed late. Was it a one year contract or

956
00:48:52,079 --> 00:48:54,079
was it a two year contract? Because if he's still

957
00:48:54,079 --> 00:48:58,119
a free agent again this year, I expect Pavetta to

958
00:48:58,119 --> 00:49:01,880
pitch extremely well here because the game will be important

959
00:49:01,880 --> 00:49:05,119
to him. I don't remember. I went to the Ross

960
00:49:05,199 --> 00:49:08,320
resource page and it hasn't said how long the contract was,

961
00:49:08,880 --> 00:49:11,039
so maybe I missed it. Maybe it's a two year contract,

962
00:49:11,079 --> 00:49:13,000
but it's a one year contract. I think this is

963
00:49:13,039 --> 00:49:17,360
a bargain on San Diego. Abbot's going for Cincinnati. He's

964
00:49:17,880 --> 00:49:20,039
he's puzzled a lot of us all season long. In fact,

965
00:49:20,039 --> 00:49:24,320
it's career. Actually signed a four year deal. Four year deal. Okay, okay,

966
00:49:24,320 --> 00:49:27,000
well that makes a little bit more sense then, because

967
00:49:27,159 --> 00:49:31,119
I still like the situation with him. But yeah, that's

968
00:49:31,159 --> 00:49:34,320
good for him. That's the perfect ballpark for him, either

969
00:49:34,320 --> 00:49:38,159
in Kansas City or in San Diego, or obviously the

970
00:49:38,159 --> 00:49:40,960
match stadium, which is good for every pitcher. But I

971
00:49:41,079 --> 00:49:44,039
like to put better here. The line is, like I said,

972
00:49:44,039 --> 00:49:45,960
you can get as low as one thirty six out

973
00:49:45,960 --> 00:49:48,800
there on him right now, but there are one forty

974
00:49:48,800 --> 00:49:52,039
five's out there. I prefer the San Diego side in

975
00:49:52,119 --> 00:49:54,719
this game, and they're playing at home. They've got a

976
00:49:54,800 --> 00:49:57,840
very good home record. Cincinnati is a team right now

977
00:49:57,880 --> 00:50:00,119
that I think is just playing out the string, and

978
00:50:00,159 --> 00:50:05,960
you're paying the juice of them still being in baseball

979
00:50:06,119 --> 00:50:09,519
playoff race, although like I said, a five percent chance

980
00:50:10,400 --> 00:50:13,440
they're they're technically out of it. I'm gonna I don't

981
00:50:13,559 --> 00:50:14,880
don't light a lot of chalk. I'm more of an

982
00:50:14,960 --> 00:50:17,719
underdog player, but I'm gonna play San Diego here. Let's

983
00:50:17,719 --> 00:50:21,199
play San Diego. Let's get the current, Let's go one

984
00:50:21,320 --> 00:50:24,679
forty five on there, although like I said, you can

985
00:50:24,719 --> 00:50:27,239
get it in the one thirties. Shop around and get

986
00:50:27,320 --> 00:50:28,960
that if you want it. But I'm gonna play San

987
00:50:29,000 --> 00:50:33,679
Diego here. I think really good game for Pavetta here,

988
00:50:33,760 --> 00:50:36,800
and Abbott is so inconsistent. I could be wrong, but

989
00:50:37,079 --> 00:50:38,519
I'll lay the chalk on this one.

990
00:50:40,400 --> 00:50:44,280
Speaker 4: I have the Padres ranked a little bit higher than

991
00:50:44,320 --> 00:50:48,119
the Reds in almost every category. But when that happens,

992
00:50:48,159 --> 00:50:50,679
I like to see a difference of like ten or

993
00:50:50,679 --> 00:50:53,400
more points on my ranking, and I only have these

994
00:50:53,400 --> 00:50:59,000
guys five points different. But dig a little deeper and

995
00:50:59,280 --> 00:51:02,719
I you could probably convince me to take San Diego here,

996
00:51:02,800 --> 00:51:08,960
because Pavetta's numbers against these batters are just unreal. Sixty

997
00:51:09,000 --> 00:51:11,920
at bats against, a one to eighty three average and

998
00:51:11,960 --> 00:51:15,599
a five forty six ops. It's the second best number

999
00:51:15,639 --> 00:51:19,280
of any pitcher starting pitcher out today against the batteries

1000
00:51:19,280 --> 00:51:24,280
he's facing. Now, he's at home, and he loves pitching

1001
00:51:24,320 --> 00:51:26,559
at home. He's got a two three, nine er and

1002
00:51:26,679 --> 00:51:30,800
ninety innings at home. So take a look at how

1003
00:51:30,800 --> 00:51:33,559
the teams compare. Yes, the Reds are hitting the ball

1004
00:51:33,639 --> 00:51:36,400
quite well. I have them ranked eleven in current form,

1005
00:51:36,559 --> 00:51:39,199
so that's a little bit scary. But the Reds bullpen

1006
00:51:39,320 --> 00:51:42,760
Is is performing like trash these days that I have

1007
00:51:42,800 --> 00:51:44,880
him ranked twenty one out of thirty in current form,

1008
00:51:44,920 --> 00:51:49,159
where I got san Diego's at eleven. So given all

1009
00:51:49,199 --> 00:51:54,480
of that, I probably would favor san Diego in this

1010
00:51:54,800 --> 00:51:59,719
as well. One red Flag, though Abbott has amazing command,

1011
00:52:00,039 --> 00:52:02,960
only walking twenty three percent of the batters he's striking out.

1012
00:52:03,280 --> 00:52:06,199
Both of these pitchers have really good command. They're not

1013
00:52:06,320 --> 00:52:12,679
walking people almost at all. So I just like Paveta's

1014
00:52:12,760 --> 00:52:15,840
numbers in the head to head matchup. I think it'll

1015
00:52:15,880 --> 00:52:18,360
be a tight game, though I think san Diego probably

1016
00:52:18,360 --> 00:52:22,360
pull it out, maybe a run. It looks this looks

1017
00:52:22,360 --> 00:52:24,039
like a four to three kind of game to me,

1018
00:52:24,480 --> 00:52:26,559
so that's probably what we'll be seeing.

1019
00:52:28,960 --> 00:52:31,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, if we're talking to two teams right now,

1020
00:52:32,079 --> 00:52:35,519
certainly for the Padres, don't think it's impossible that they

1021
00:52:35,960 --> 00:52:37,559
I mean, they got a lot to play for still,

1022
00:52:37,960 --> 00:52:40,159
even even though they're going to be in the playoffs.

1023
00:52:40,199 --> 00:52:44,239
Like catching the Dodgers, I think catching the Dodgers means

1024
00:52:44,280 --> 00:52:47,639
way more to them than it does the Dodgers. Like

1025
00:52:48,119 --> 00:52:51,239
I really don't think, yeah, Like I don't really think

1026
00:52:51,280 --> 00:52:54,000
the Dodgers are going to be devastated if they if

1027
00:52:54,039 --> 00:52:56,280
they don't win the division for some reason, it's just

1028
00:52:56,320 --> 00:52:59,480
like they're gonna go to the playoffs and like that's that's.

1029
00:52:59,320 --> 00:53:01,280
Speaker 2: The focus for them.

1030
00:53:01,639 --> 00:53:03,960
Speaker 1: Whereas, like I do think it's a pretty big deal

1031
00:53:04,880 --> 00:53:07,400
for the for the Padres if they can pull it off,

1032
00:53:07,440 --> 00:53:09,000
which is very possible.

1033
00:53:09,039 --> 00:53:11,760
Speaker 2: They're only two games back to win the division.

1034
00:53:11,800 --> 00:53:14,880
Speaker 4: So I think, you know, I apologize cutting you off,

1035
00:53:14,920 --> 00:53:18,280
but this is playing out exactly like last season and

1036
00:53:18,320 --> 00:53:21,000
when the Padres lost the division, they were so deflated.

1037
00:53:21,079 --> 00:53:22,960
So I'm just adding to what you're saying right now.

1038
00:53:23,079 --> 00:53:26,599
Speaker 1: Yeah, No, I mean, I definitely think there's like motivation

1039
00:53:26,760 --> 00:53:31,400
there Petco Park in September, Like, that's that's one of

1040
00:53:31,440 --> 00:53:34,480
the better atmospheres you're going to find in baseball. That

1041
00:53:34,639 --> 00:53:38,559
crowd is great year round, but they are ready for

1042
00:53:38,719 --> 00:53:41,719
especially when the Padres are good. That's a playoff atmosphere

1043
00:53:41,719 --> 00:53:44,480
comes September at a night game. They're forty four and

1044
00:53:44,519 --> 00:53:46,920
twenty six at home this year and that that comes

1045
00:53:46,960 --> 00:53:50,159
as no surprise. That is probably one of the best

1046
00:53:50,159 --> 00:53:54,320
atmospheres in the in the league. And you know, hey,

1047
00:53:53,960 --> 00:53:57,239
San Diego, they lost their football team, so they have

1048
00:53:57,360 --> 00:53:59,960
one thing now and that one thing is the Padres,

1049
00:54:00,039 --> 00:54:02,480
and they show up for that team, it's gonna be

1050
00:54:02,480 --> 00:54:06,079
a tremendous atmosphere. Red's on the road this year thirty

1051
00:54:06,079 --> 00:54:09,239
three and thirty eight doesn't really surprise me that much.

1052
00:54:09,280 --> 00:54:09,800
Speaker 2: The Reds are.

1053
00:54:09,960 --> 00:54:11,440
Speaker 1: I feel like the Reds are what they are. They're

1054
00:54:11,440 --> 00:54:15,559
five hundred team, you know they. I feel like they

1055
00:54:15,599 --> 00:54:18,679
more or less beat themselves often this year, and it's like,

1056
00:54:19,079 --> 00:54:21,519
you look at this matchup and the magnitude of the

1057
00:54:21,559 --> 00:54:23,280
game for the Padres, the fact that they're at home,

1058
00:54:23,360 --> 00:54:26,519
the fact they have paveda on the mound, it's really

1059
00:54:26,519 --> 00:54:29,400
hard to like not like the Padres. How this sets up.

1060
00:54:29,400 --> 00:54:31,159
So I'm with you, right, I think it would be

1061
00:54:31,159 --> 00:54:33,559
Padres or a pass for me as well. All right,

1062
00:54:33,559 --> 00:54:35,800
I'm gonna throw a game out, but I'll go to

1063
00:54:35,840 --> 00:54:41,239
YouTube first. Let's finish off the al sort of West

1064
00:54:41,519 --> 00:54:46,159
playoff race. Let's talk Cardinals Mariners. This is probably gonna

1065
00:54:46,239 --> 00:54:48,480
end up being my parlay Lake, but I'm gonna give

1066
00:54:48,519 --> 00:54:50,400
you two a chance to either talk me into it

1067
00:54:50,599 --> 00:54:51,679
or talk me out of it.

1068
00:54:51,679 --> 00:54:54,440
Speaker 2: It's logan, Gilbert. It looks like McGreevy for the Cardinals.

1069
00:54:54,840 --> 00:54:55,719
How are you seeing this one.

1070
00:54:55,760 --> 00:55:01,559
Speaker 3: Brian's check the line on this one. Logan Gilbert's about

1071
00:55:01,559 --> 00:55:06,679
a two twenty favorite total seven and a half. The

1072
00:55:06,719 --> 00:55:09,000
problem with Seattle be in a two twenty favorite is

1073
00:55:09,559 --> 00:55:12,480
a lot of their pitchers. The innings are really taking

1074
00:55:12,519 --> 00:55:15,639
a toll on them. Gilbert's had some injuries this year.

1075
00:55:15,840 --> 00:55:17,880
When he pitches, he's been good. He hasn't been as

1076
00:55:17,920 --> 00:55:21,119
good as he's been in the past, but they've had

1077
00:55:21,159 --> 00:55:23,880
some other guys that run into problems. To mcgreevy's a guy,

1078
00:55:24,000 --> 00:55:29,079
and I think I backed Saint Louis on five percent

1079
00:55:29,239 --> 00:55:32,039
or a big play last time he pitched, and he

1080
00:55:32,079 --> 00:55:34,199
did not pitch well and we got I took the

1081
00:55:34,239 --> 00:55:36,599
loss as one of my few losses I've had in

1082
00:55:36,639 --> 00:55:40,039
the last couple of months. Still number one in net

1083
00:55:40,079 --> 00:55:45,719
profit in baseball the last thirty days. But Saint Louis

1084
00:55:45,800 --> 00:55:50,199
coming into this. You take a look at their numbers lately,

1085
00:55:50,480 --> 00:55:54,400
Saint Louis the team playing through the basically the grinding

1086
00:55:54,440 --> 00:55:56,320
off the season. They're five and five to the last ten,

1087
00:55:57,800 --> 00:55:59,639
don't have any chance for the playoffs, but there's still

1088
00:55:59,639 --> 00:56:01,679
only two games under five hundred. I think it means

1089
00:56:01,719 --> 00:56:03,599
a lot to this team to get to be a

1090
00:56:03,639 --> 00:56:06,239
five hundred team or play or better again. I'm sure

1091
00:56:06,280 --> 00:56:07,960
they've got a nice streak of that. That's been a

1092
00:56:07,960 --> 00:56:11,119
long time since the Cardinals have not had a winning record,

1093
00:56:11,159 --> 00:56:14,360
but they've got McGreevy on the mound. Zia rais up

1094
00:56:14,360 --> 00:56:17,079
to four point six eight four point ninety one unexpected

1095
00:56:17,119 --> 00:56:22,239
one point twenty six whip. He's walked right ninety nine percentile,

1096
00:56:22,320 --> 00:56:25,840
doesn't walk anybody three point nine percent this year, two

1097
00:56:25,880 --> 00:56:30,199
point three percent last year. Now we saw that with

1098
00:56:31,679 --> 00:56:35,199
one of one of TV's favorite pitchers. The pitch for

1099
00:56:35,280 --> 00:56:41,039
the Twins yesterday very similar. His season is very similar

1100
00:56:41,079 --> 00:56:44,079
to what his was last year. And you look at

1101
00:56:44,119 --> 00:56:47,599
his strike up percenty second percentile with for eighth expected

1102
00:56:47,639 --> 00:56:56,239
batting average, fourth bros. Seven seven pitches, his UH fastball

1103
00:56:56,280 --> 00:56:58,639
as basically he throws at twenty five percent of the time,

1104
00:56:59,400 --> 00:57:02,519
so he's got a lot of different pitches. I like that,

1105
00:57:03,800 --> 00:57:06,719
but he's not going to blow you away with his fastball.

1106
00:57:07,079 --> 00:57:09,239
I like McGreevey, but I liked him last week. He

1107
00:57:09,800 --> 00:57:13,000
bring me back Logan Gilbert comes in with a four

1108
00:57:13,039 --> 00:57:16,280
and six record. He was a guy that was one

1109
00:57:16,320 --> 00:57:19,239
of them they considered front runner for the cy Young

1110
00:57:19,280 --> 00:57:21,000
You're not going to win many cy Young's with four

1111
00:57:21,039 --> 00:57:25,280
wins in September three point six twenty two point eight

1112
00:57:25,320 --> 00:57:28,239
two expected one point h two, which still a really

1113
00:57:28,280 --> 00:57:31,320
good pitcher, but he does get hurt as adams ex

1114
00:57:31,400 --> 00:57:34,679
velocity fourteenth percentile is a concern. But I like him.

1115
00:57:34,719 --> 00:57:38,239
But he's been very up and down. For myself, I

1116
00:57:38,239 --> 00:57:41,559
can't lay the two twenty on Seattle based on the

1117
00:57:41,599 --> 00:57:44,920
way he's been. He's had too many bad outings. McGreevey

1118
00:57:45,079 --> 00:57:48,159
has the ability to pitch with him in this game.

1119
00:57:49,000 --> 00:57:52,400
If I play it, I take the underdog, but I

1120
00:57:52,880 --> 00:57:54,320
likely won't get there in this one.

1121
00:57:55,320 --> 00:57:57,679
Speaker 4: Well, this isn't gonna help Adam if he's on the

1122
00:57:57,719 --> 00:58:00,480
fence because I'm going the opposite way. I love in

1123
00:58:00,519 --> 00:58:03,559
this matchup. I like Gilbert. I'll make it quick because

1124
00:58:03,559 --> 00:58:06,079
we're running out of time, but I like Gilbert's numbers

1125
00:58:06,079 --> 00:58:10,440
against these botters. I like Gilbert as a pitcher. He's

1126
00:58:10,559 --> 00:58:13,400
in his last few starts. He's he's finished six innings

1127
00:58:13,400 --> 00:58:17,199
in three straight starts, and my expected numbers from McGreevy,

1128
00:58:17,280 --> 00:58:19,960
according to my numbers, are terrible. I got him ranked

1129
00:58:19,960 --> 00:58:22,000
twenty one on the thirty on a curve of thirty

1130
00:58:22,000 --> 00:58:26,079
where I got Gilbert rank six. So my numbers love

1131
00:58:26,480 --> 00:58:29,519
Seattle here. So I agree with you that the price

1132
00:58:29,639 --> 00:58:32,920
is too high. A minus one, even a minus one

1133
00:58:33,000 --> 00:58:36,800
is minus one seventy, so it's tough to take it

1134
00:58:36,920 --> 00:58:40,280
at that price. But I really like Seattle in this.

1135
00:58:40,199 --> 00:58:44,800
Speaker 1: One, I'll break the tie. I'm gonna take Cardinals plus

1136
00:58:44,800 --> 00:58:47,239
one and a half. It's possible. Hey, it's possible Seattle

1137
00:58:47,280 --> 00:58:50,599
wins and the Cardinals still cover. Mcgreevy's a guy that,

1138
00:58:50,800 --> 00:58:54,559
like he's kind of been at the Triple A level

1139
00:58:54,679 --> 00:58:56,280
or in the big leagues for the Cardinals the last

1140
00:58:56,320 --> 00:58:59,159
couple of years. If you want to talk about being

1141
00:58:59,199 --> 00:59:01,719
important to to hint like this is an important start

1142
00:59:01,760 --> 00:59:03,840
to him. I think he's probably a guy that the

1143
00:59:03,880 --> 00:59:08,039
Cardinals are looking at, trying to trying to evaluate whether

1144
00:59:08,079 --> 00:59:10,159
he's going to be in their rotation next year or not.

1145
00:59:10,719 --> 00:59:12,000
Speaker 2: And you know he might.

1146
00:59:12,039 --> 00:59:14,079
Speaker 1: He might have had some blow ups, like last time

1147
00:59:14,079 --> 00:59:16,400
out against the Giants, as Brian said, he didn't pitch

1148
00:59:16,519 --> 00:59:19,079
very well, but like for the most part he's pitched.

1149
00:59:19,280 --> 00:59:21,239
He's had a very good season. If you look at

1150
00:59:21,280 --> 00:59:23,760
all of his starts this year, Memphis and then the ones.

1151
00:59:23,800 --> 00:59:26,079
At the big league level, he's had a very solid season.

1152
00:59:26,119 --> 00:59:28,800
I think he's a a solid pitcher with a lot

1153
00:59:28,840 --> 00:59:32,360
of upside, and so again I think it's it's very

1154
00:59:32,360 --> 00:59:34,480
possibly comes out and pitches well here.

1155
00:59:34,559 --> 00:59:35,960
Speaker 2: I still am.

1156
00:59:35,840 --> 00:59:39,159
Speaker 1: Not convinced that Logan Gilbert is not injured in some capacity.

1157
00:59:39,199 --> 00:59:41,760
I know he's pitched well the last couple of times out,

1158
00:59:41,800 --> 00:59:44,639
but knowing the knowing the injury he had earlier this season,

1159
00:59:45,400 --> 00:59:48,719
there's no way he's not pitching through that a little bit,

1160
00:59:48,800 --> 00:59:51,400
and that could crop up at any time. We saw

1161
00:59:51,559 --> 00:59:54,679
how bad he was in that Philly start, having you know,

1162
00:59:54,679 --> 00:59:57,599
couldn't locate anything, and it's like, you know, he's battled

1163
00:59:57,599 --> 00:59:59,800
through his last couple starts. But again, I still think

1164
00:59:59,800 --> 01:00:02,679
you're you're being asked to pay a premium number on

1165
01:00:02,760 --> 01:00:04,719
a guy that might be hurt. And then I'll just

1166
01:00:04,760 --> 01:00:06,960
go to the fact that, like I've watched like every

1167
01:00:06,960 --> 01:00:09,840
inning of this series so far without any action on it.

1168
01:00:10,880 --> 01:00:13,599
The Mariners winning both of those first two games in

1169
01:00:13,639 --> 01:00:17,519
this series by more than one run, very fortunate. You know,

1170
01:00:17,639 --> 01:00:21,400
go back to two nights ago, they had they trailed

1171
01:00:21,400 --> 01:00:23,800
for the majority of that game, come out with a

1172
01:00:23,840 --> 01:00:26,880
seven a four run sixth inning, and they were able

1173
01:00:26,880 --> 01:00:30,039
to hold on four to use their leverage relief arms

1174
01:00:30,039 --> 01:00:32,039
to do so. Go to last night. You know, it

1175
01:00:32,079 --> 01:00:35,480
was back and forth. All the scoring stopped after the

1176
01:00:35,519 --> 01:00:38,559
fourth inning. After it was like Cardinals up to nothing.

1177
01:00:39,000 --> 01:00:42,079
Then I believe it was three to three. Mariners get

1178
01:00:42,159 --> 01:00:43,960
up five to three, and then they end up like

1179
01:00:44,079 --> 01:00:45,039
being able to hold that.

1180
01:00:45,039 --> 01:00:48,119
Speaker 2: On, hold on to that with their top bullpen arms.

1181
01:00:48,360 --> 01:00:51,199
Speaker 1: Josh Naylor may have tweaked something in the last inning

1182
01:00:51,199 --> 01:00:54,119
of that game last night. Guys, it's hard for him

1183
01:00:54,119 --> 01:00:55,800
to get off the ground these days. He just gets

1184
01:00:55,800 --> 01:00:57,599
bigger every time I see him. He puts on a

1185
01:00:57,639 --> 01:01:00,519
few more pounds. But he made a sliding which is

1186
01:01:00,599 --> 01:01:02,679
really nice play kind of wins to t when he

1187
01:01:02,719 --> 01:01:06,360
got up. I'll be interesting to see if that, you know,

1188
01:01:06,440 --> 01:01:10,280
maybe it looked like he tweaked something in the groin area,

1189
01:01:10,440 --> 01:01:13,079
maybe like the way he slid and sort of backhanded

1190
01:01:13,079 --> 01:01:15,880
that ball got up made the play the first That

1191
01:01:15,920 --> 01:01:18,159
would be rough if he's out of the lineup for

1192
01:01:18,199 --> 01:01:20,880
them today, So something I'll be looking at. But all

1193
01:01:21,079 --> 01:01:23,960
all things considered, this series, these last two games have

1194
01:01:24,039 --> 01:01:26,639
been too competitive for me to think the Cardinals don't

1195
01:01:26,679 --> 01:01:30,360
have a the chance to avoid the sweep be the

1196
01:01:30,400 --> 01:01:32,639
possibility that they keep it to at least one run.

1197
01:01:32,760 --> 01:01:34,519
You're getting them on the road, so you kind of

1198
01:01:34,519 --> 01:01:36,800
get the extra at that. So that'll be my parlay leg.

1199
01:01:36,880 --> 01:01:38,960
Cardinals plus one and a half ran. What am I

1200
01:01:38,960 --> 01:01:44,840
looking at for a price minus one fifteen? Yeah, that's

1201
01:01:44,880 --> 01:01:48,719
that's a I really think that's an all around good bet.

1202
01:01:50,280 --> 01:01:52,400
If any of those things happens in that way, the

1203
01:01:52,440 --> 01:01:55,320
Cardinals probably win this game. Worst case scenario, can they

1204
01:01:55,400 --> 01:01:57,079
keep it within a run? I think they can, So

1205
01:01:57,119 --> 01:02:00,199
that is going to be my parlay leg. And we've

1206
01:02:00,199 --> 01:02:02,760
got the parlay locked in. If you missed yesterday's show,

1207
01:02:03,320 --> 01:02:06,039
it was a nice three team winner plus five fifty.

1208
01:02:06,840 --> 01:02:09,039
So we're gonna try to do it again. The chat

1209
01:02:09,159 --> 01:02:12,519
says that we can't hit back to back parlays. I

1210
01:02:12,559 --> 01:02:14,760
do think there's been at least one point in time

1211
01:02:14,800 --> 01:02:16,599
this year where we hit a back to back parlay.

1212
01:02:16,920 --> 01:02:18,880
But we've got the chance to do it again. So

1213
01:02:18,960 --> 01:02:21,320
let's see we have. I just want to make sure

1214
01:02:21,360 --> 01:02:26,199
these prices are accurate and all right, here we go,

1215
01:02:28,440 --> 01:02:32,239
there we go. Okay, that is correct? All right, So

1216
01:02:32,280 --> 01:02:35,880
plus four sixty eight on this three teamer, we're gonna

1217
01:02:35,920 --> 01:02:40,239
go Tokyo brand is going Brewers Rangers first five under four,

1218
01:02:40,760 --> 01:02:44,599
So that's Brewers Rangers first five under four. Brian Leonards

1219
01:02:44,639 --> 01:02:47,159
got the Padres on the money line, and I'm gonna

1220
01:02:47,159 --> 01:02:49,760
take Cardinals plus one and a half. So once again

1221
01:02:49,960 --> 01:02:53,639
three teamer Tokyo Brandon Brewers Rangers first five under four,

1222
01:02:54,239 --> 01:02:58,840
Brian san Diego Padres money line trig Cardinals plus one

1223
01:02:58,840 --> 01:03:01,719
and a half. That Harlay is plus four sixty eight.

1224
01:03:02,000 --> 01:03:04,880
That's the show. We'll see you guys back here tomorrow morning,

1225
01:03:05,199 --> 01:03:07,880
nine am Eastern. Have a great day everyone, Good luck

1226
01:03:07,920 --> 01:03:10,280
with all your bets.