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<v Speaker 1>All right, We're back here on another episode of the

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<v Speaker 1>Restaurant Report, and today is going to be a fun

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<v Speaker 1>one because I've got Michael Halen with my great friends

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<v Speaker 1>over here at Bloomberg coming in as one of the

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<v Speaker 1>top analysts in the industry. Michael, how are you.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm doing well. How are you, Paul?

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<v Speaker 1>It's been good. I think a lot's happening in the

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<v Speaker 1>space right now, more so Newswise, which we're going to

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<v Speaker 1>be covering some stuff on Starbucks. We're going to hit

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<v Speaker 1>shakeshack today, talk about the healthy category and also take

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<v Speaker 1>a look at where money is going in the space.

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<v Speaker 1>So everybody stick around, we'll be right back. All right,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm back here with Michael coming in from Bloemberg Intelligence.

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<v Speaker 1>Is it intelligence or do you guys have a different

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<v Speaker 1>category with all the analysts we talked to some of

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<v Speaker 1>the other guys and it's Bloomberg Intelligence.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, that's what we call the department.

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<v Speaker 3>But that's our research department, Compasses, equities, corporates, you name.

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<v Speaker 2>It's all into that umbrella.

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<v Speaker 1>So when you look at Michael, you're covering the space

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<v Speaker 1>right now. Talk to me, first of all, what is

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<v Speaker 1>your beat? Are you covering all publicly traded where they're

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<v Speaker 1>going in terms of trends, cycles, how their revenues are doing.

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<v Speaker 1>Give me kind of the one to one.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, we cover seventeen of the largest publicly traded restaurant companies,

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<v Speaker 3>US Foods and Cisco, and we're analyzing those companies individually,

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<v Speaker 3>trying to project out earnings over the next couple of years,

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<v Speaker 3>and writing research on how we think their business is

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<v Speaker 3>going to go moving forward. And then you know, we

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<v Speaker 3>also do a good bit of industry level research, so

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<v Speaker 3>we talk a lot about trends and sales and margins

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<v Speaker 3>and all that kind of stuff.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, we got to talk about AI because this is

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<v Speaker 1>something that we're seeing a lot of integration into major brands,

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<v Speaker 1>including the supply chain as well, and the potential future

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<v Speaker 1>here for the restaurant industry. When you're on the street

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<v Speaker 1>right now, is is this a big deal in the

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<v Speaker 1>restaurant industry yet or is it still kind of arms

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<v Speaker 1>length of people trying to discover what's going on.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, I don't think it's a big deal just

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<v Speaker 3>yet because I don't think we've seen all the benefits.

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<v Speaker 3>We've seen some benefits, I believe, you know, there's been

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of work on big data, which is I

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<v Speaker 3>guess was AI before it was called AI, right, And

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<v Speaker 3>there was a lot of initiatives in terms of.

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<v Speaker 2>Theoretical versus actual.

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<v Speaker 3>Food programs as well as labor programs and sales projecting algorithms, right,

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<v Speaker 3>and those are being improved by AI machine learning right now.

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<v Speaker 3>And so that's the benefit i'd say we're seeing right

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<v Speaker 3>now moving forward, though we expect much bigger benefits. You know,

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<v Speaker 3>one that's probably really close to benefiting a company at

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<v Speaker 3>Chipotle's HR program, right, because that's going to free up

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<v Speaker 3>the managers to do a lot less interviewing, It's gonna

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<v Speaker 3>it's going to free up a lot more of their

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<v Speaker 3>time to touch the guests and make sure that the

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<v Speaker 3>restaurants are running smoothly and and and focus on their

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<v Speaker 3>day to day, which they personally they'd rather be focused on, right.

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<v Speaker 3>And so that that's one that that should help Chipotle

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<v Speaker 3>pretty soon. And then you know, we have stuff that's

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<v Speaker 3>you know, still quite expensive and more down the line,

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<v Speaker 3>but has you know definitely are are very interesting, right.

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<v Speaker 3>And so sticking with Chipotle because they're on the bleeding edge,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, they have the second make line, the automated

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<v Speaker 3>second make line that's underneath the counter for to go orders,

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<v Speaker 3>and uh, they're testing that and in quite a quite

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<v Speaker 3>a few stores. You know, they tried the automated chip fryers.

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<v Speaker 3>Those those didn't seem to work out as well. But

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<v Speaker 3>the autocado the machine that cuts course appeals avocados for

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<v Speaker 3>the guacamole, seems to be working pretty well. That's also

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<v Speaker 3>being tested in a lot of stores. You know, places

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<v Speaker 3>like Jack in the Box. They have these AI fryars

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<v Speaker 3>and these automated drink machines that they're working on. But

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<v Speaker 3>right now, all that technology is pretty expensive, right and

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<v Speaker 3>so you know, as that technology costs decline and as

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<v Speaker 3>minimum wages continue to rise, eventually they'll be an ROI

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<v Speaker 3>on those things and they'll be more ubiquitous in the

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<v Speaker 3>restaurant industry, but not so much right now.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, okay, so you mentioned Chippotle. We got to go

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<v Speaker 1>there for a second because obviously briannkel he jumps over

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<v Speaker 1>to Starbucks. We'll talk about that in a second. But

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<v Speaker 1>boat Rice got about right taking over the lead there

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<v Speaker 1>looks like it's going to be a you know, a

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<v Speaker 1>permanent position. What do you think about the management team

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<v Speaker 1>right now, are you consistent with most of what the

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<v Speaker 1>industry is saying is that this is a good cycle

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<v Speaker 1>for Chipotle's team to kind of lead through this next phase.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I think so.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, we we thought Scott boat right was the

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<v Speaker 3>right man for the job. We were happy to see

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<v Speaker 3>that he got the full time tag. They they dropped

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<v Speaker 3>the interim tag on them, and you know, we we

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<v Speaker 3>think that was the right move. They also, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>last year they kind of quietly gave senior management team

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<v Speaker 3>members pretty big raises and extended their contracts. And you know,

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<v Speaker 3>I think part of that was fear that Brian Nicchol

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<v Speaker 3>could try to poach them poach yeah, right, And so yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>Brian Nichol seems to be a popular guy.

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<v Speaker 2>A lot of people want to go work with him.

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<v Speaker 3>So so yeah, by keeping that senior management team uh intact,

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<v Speaker 3>I think was one hundred percent the right move. When

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<v Speaker 3>you have a company that's going, you know, doing so

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<v Speaker 3>well and outperforming for so long, you don't want to

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<v Speaker 3>upset the apple cart, right, and so yeah.

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<v Speaker 2>We think we think it was it was the right

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<v Speaker 2>to keeping.

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<v Speaker 1>A guy the ship on the rails. Well, the good

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<v Speaker 1>thing there if you look at Chipotle, they've continued to

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<v Speaker 1>experiment with new stuff, and I think that, to your point,

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<v Speaker 1>is what they've done with some of their AI automation

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<v Speaker 1>with HR. We just saw that story last week we

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<v Speaker 1>report on it. But the interesting thing to me is

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<v Speaker 1>that usually showcases that the brand has an appetite for

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<v Speaker 1>some things like that that can be very you know,

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<v Speaker 1>forward thinking. So good stuff for Chipotle. I think in general,

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<v Speaker 1>they're probably one of the leaders out there in the market.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's jump over to Starbucks for a second. I'll bring

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<v Speaker 1>up the story Starbucks laid off eleven hundred corporate workers. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>of course, this is Brian Nickel, the CEO, and this

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<v Speaker 1>is six point nine percent of the non retail staff.

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<v Speaker 1>That's a significant number there. So first of all, why

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<v Speaker 1>did he do it? And does this change anything on

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<v Speaker 1>the Starbucks forefront? What's your opinion?

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<v Speaker 3>No, this is pretty unexpected from where I sit. You know,

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<v Speaker 3>when when Brian Nichol took the job, he took over

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<v Speaker 3>for a management team that struggled mightily, tried a lot

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<v Speaker 3>of different tactics, didn't have a lot of discipline, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>And one of the things that we right off the

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<v Speaker 3>bat was that he was going to bring in accountability,

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<v Speaker 3>a culture of accountability and transparency, right and if for

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<v Speaker 3>people that weren't pulling their weight, you know, they should

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<v Speaker 3>be worried. And he started with the senior management team. There,

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<v Speaker 3>there was some changes right away at the top of

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<v Speaker 3>the organization, and now it's making it, you know, down

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<v Speaker 3>a little bit further into the other members of the

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<v Speaker 3>corporate staff. But listen, this is a team that's been

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<v Speaker 3>underperforming for quite some time, right, and so you know,

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<v Speaker 3>these big organizations, it's easy for employees to get lost, right.

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<v Speaker 3>And you know, you were joking around before we started this,

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<v Speaker 3>but you know, you know, maybe they were influenced by

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<v Speaker 3>the Dosee team try to run the operations a little

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<v Speaker 3>bit more industry, right, And you know, I think I think,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, he he wants change, He wants his people

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<v Speaker 3>in there, like any good CEO does, especially with one

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<v Speaker 3>like him, with his track record, he'll be able to

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<v Speaker 3>attract employees, uh easily.

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<v Speaker 2>So yeah, no surprise from where we said.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, listen, we've seen the industry blue and brands let

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<v Speaker 1>go seventeen percent of their support center workforce just last week.

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<v Speaker 1>Denny's also said earlier in the month that it had

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<v Speaker 1>undertaken some corporate layoffs. Then we saw Dine Brands terminated

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<v Speaker 1>about nine percent of its corporate workforce. So this seems

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<v Speaker 1>to be a consistent theme that's going throughout the industry.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you think we're going to see more throughout twenty

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<v Speaker 1>twenty five?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I would say what the common thread between those

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<v Speaker 3>four companies has been seam source of sales underperformed. It's

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<v Speaker 3>pretty vast underperformance last year, right, And so you know

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<v Speaker 3>when you have chains that were putting up negative seam

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<v Speaker 3>source sales, you know the revenue bas is shrinking. You know,

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<v Speaker 3>this is not uncommon, right, And so I don't think so.

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<v Speaker 3>I think I've heard. I think we've heard most of

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<v Speaker 3>the announcements this year, because if you're going to do this,

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<v Speaker 3>you want to do it earlier in the year so

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<v Speaker 3>you get that benefit, you know, sooner, right in terms

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<v Speaker 3>of lower SG and A. So I think we've heard

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<v Speaker 3>most of the announcements for this year. I don't think

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<v Speaker 3>that the companies that are performing really well are looking

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<v Speaker 3>to cut headcount at the moment, right. It's the companies

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<v Speaker 3>that had a really rough twenty twenty four that are

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<v Speaker 3>looking to do this.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I want to bring up a story. You mentioned

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<v Speaker 1>same store sales, and of course when you bring up

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<v Speaker 1>that terminology, you cannot go without mentioning this right here,

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<v Speaker 1>which is Chili's thirty one point four percent same store

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<v Speaker 1>sales increase in Q two. What in the world was

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<v Speaker 1>going on here at Chili's that would cause this kind

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<v Speaker 1>of thing? Have you seen anything in terms of your

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<v Speaker 1>research that has indicated this kind of growth for Chili's.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, we didn't protect thirty percent. I'll tell you that

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<v Speaker 3>nobody has, I mean the most. And I didn't know

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<v Speaker 3>we were going to talk about this. Did you just notice

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<v Speaker 3>my head?

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<v Speaker 2>I just sell that, so I say, I got to

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<v Speaker 2>bring it up. So yeah, I mean it's been incredible.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean forever it's been the Dominoes turnaround, right like

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<v Speaker 3>our pizza stinks, We're sorry, will make it better. And

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<v Speaker 3>you know they did like a ten percent, and now

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<v Speaker 3>Chile's now is compon thirty percent over a six and

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<v Speaker 3>a half last year, which.

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<v Speaker 2>Is crazy, something I've never seen.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't know if it's ever happened for a mature,

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<v Speaker 3>established brand of this size that's been around this long.

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<v Speaker 3>Absolutely incredible. Kevin Hawkman and his team has done a

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<v Speaker 3>phenomenal job. And it's a similar playbook. Uh you know

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<v Speaker 3>that Brian Nicols is looking to execute in Starbucks. Right,

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<v Speaker 3>It's like nail the operations, right. They right off the bat,

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<v Speaker 3>they simplified the menu, right. They actually took discounts away,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, because because constant discounting is basically just telling

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<v Speaker 3>your your customers that the fluid rights on the menu, yep, right,

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<v Speaker 3>And so they removed the discounts, which you know was

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<v Speaker 3>a bold move to do last year in the midst

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<v Speaker 3>of a you know, restaurant.

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<v Speaker 1>Recession, casual dining sector.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, yeah, one hund so and and shrinking the menu

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<v Speaker 3>and bringing backbusters and putting more labor into the stores,

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<v Speaker 3>getting that experience, right, nailing that experience, and then from

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<v Speaker 3>there really pressing the gas on the marketing side. And

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<v Speaker 3>their their marketing team is the best in the business.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, they're absolutely crushing it on social media, through TikTok,

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<v Speaker 3>through their TV advertising. They have ads ads, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>taking shots at QSR and and and the high prices

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<v Speaker 3>that qs are.

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<v Speaker 2>They're doing really well right on TikTok.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, they're changing the menu based based on some

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<v Speaker 3>of the things that they're their customers are doing on

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<v Speaker 3>TikTok and they're paying attention.

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<v Speaker 2>It's very reactive.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, very reactive. Brand, somewhat nimble, seems to be somewhat nimble.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you think this is all leadership driven or do

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<v Speaker 1>you feel like maybe there is a new wave of

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<v Speaker 1>talent starting to make their way into these brands right

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<v Speaker 1>now and we're starting to see the results of this.

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<v Speaker 2>Well. Good leaders bring good talent with them.

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<v Speaker 3>Kevin Hockman brought in George Felix and Jesse Johnson and

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<v Speaker 3>many of the people he had worked with in the

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<v Speaker 3>past at Young Brands and.

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<v Speaker 2>Taco Bell as well.

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<v Speaker 3>So no, he's brought some great talent in there with him,

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<v Speaker 3>and this is a brand that people used to love

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<v Speaker 3>exactly right, And I think that's what you know. I

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<v Speaker 3>got a chance to sit down with Kevin a couple

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<v Speaker 3>of weeks ago, and he said he was like, this

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<v Speaker 3>was a great brand once apon of time, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>and I just saw that there was a lot of

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<v Speaker 3>potential here. And I told him I loved your brand

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<v Speaker 3>twenty years ago, and then about ten years ago, my

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<v Speaker 3>son loved your brand when he was little and he'd

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<v Speaker 3>always want to go there. And I was like, oh, man,

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<v Speaker 3>I don't know to chilies, you know, but it's changed

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<v Speaker 3>over the last three years. They've leaned pretty hard into

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<v Speaker 3>the stuff that's made Chilies great, you know, the differentiation,

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<v Speaker 3>the different menu than the other casual dining competitors, really

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<v Speaker 3>leaning more into that Southwestern cuisine. And yeah, man, it's

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<v Speaker 3>been an incredible, incredible result.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>I think they also because this is something that my

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<v Speaker 1>wife brought up not too long I said, Honey, we

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<v Speaker 1>got to go to a Chili's. It was after I

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<v Speaker 1>saw these numbers. I haven't been to one in at

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<v Speaker 1>least three years, and I went in for the first

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<v Speaker 1>time in a long time. And first of all, the

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<v Speaker 1>one thing I noticed, more so than anything, was their

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<v Speaker 1>customer service had really elevated, and the greet was better,

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<v Speaker 1>the service speed was better, the check back was better.

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<v Speaker 1>They made sure all the entrees were right, and they

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<v Speaker 1>then they asked if we liked them, and I was like, Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>this is a different kind of experience at a casual

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<v Speaker 1>dining restaurant, so I kind of see maybe this has

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<v Speaker 1>started to seep down into their operations. Which is cool

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<v Speaker 1>to see a brand like Chili's which is obviously. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>this is kind of these kind of numbers and performance

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<v Speaker 1>pretty amazing.

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<v Speaker 3>There's just a lot of low hanging through right like

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<v Speaker 3>that the operations twenty years ago, this was Chili's right

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<v Speaker 3>and now they're exactly getting back getting back to that,

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<v Speaker 3>which is great to see.

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<v Speaker 1>This episode is brought to you in part by Gusto,

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<v Speaker 1>the number one rated HR platform for payroll, benefits and more.

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<v Speaker 1>With Gusto's easy to use platform, you can empower your

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<v Speaker 1>people and push your business forward.

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<v Speaker 2>Over four hundred.

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<v Speaker 1>Thousand businesses choose Gusto every day. And let's get into it, guys.

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<v Speaker 1>payroll and benefit program as well as HR all of

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<v Speaker 1>this scaling. The cool thing about this is it's an

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<v Speaker 1>all in one platform. They can also select and punch

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<v Speaker 1>of course the best thing is pricing. The thing about

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<v Speaker 1>Gusto is flexible plans and features, honest pricing, no hidden fees.

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<v Speaker 1>This is the plan that we use, which is the

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<v Speaker 1>Check it all out. Just go over to gusto dot

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00:15:46.759 --> 00:15:50.879
<v Speaker 1>com use our link down below to get started. See

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<v Speaker 1>you there. We got to hit on Shakeshack. They're opening

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<v Speaker 1>up their kitchen innovation lab. This is coming up in

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<v Speaker 1>Atlanta this year, so it's going to test whip meant layout.

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<v Speaker 1>So I'm kind of interested to see if they've got

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<v Speaker 1>maybe a new layout planned. But also they're going to

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<v Speaker 1>improve on processes and optimizations. I don't know where shakeshack

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<v Speaker 1>would really I mean, because their speed is pretty good

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<v Speaker 1>inside the restaurant itself. But it's good to see an

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<v Speaker 1>innovation lab starting, you know, in a major brand like Shakeshak.

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<v Speaker 1>Anything that you think this will do in terms of

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<v Speaker 1>improving what Shakeshak is bringing to market.

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<v Speaker 3>You're bringing up all of the companies we're most excited

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<v Speaker 3>about this shift. So this has been this has been fun, Paul.

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<v Speaker 3>So there is some low hanging fruit here as well.

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<v Speaker 3>And so when Shakeshak was created, it was created by

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<v Speaker 3>the Union Square Hospitality Group, and it really has a

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<v Speaker 3>fine dining type set up in the sure not how

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<v Speaker 3>you should be running a fast, casual, quick service burger joint.

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<v Speaker 3>And so there needs to be work done on the

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<v Speaker 3>kitchen layout. And what what new CEO Rob Lynch has

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<v Speaker 3>talked about is he wants a line that you know,

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<v Speaker 3>starts on one end of the restaurant and ends at

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<v Speaker 3>at the at the drive through window, right. And so

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<v Speaker 3>they want to they want to improve their speed of

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<v Speaker 3>service in the in the kitchen, uh, And then that's

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<v Speaker 3>going to tie in pretty closely to the drive through, right.

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<v Speaker 3>Rob Lynch is a big believer in the drive through.

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<v Speaker 3>But wait times have been you know, pretty poor, and

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<v Speaker 3>it makes sense, right when you're making food to orders

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<v Speaker 3>drive through is going to be slow, right, and so

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<v Speaker 3>they're going to have to make some some changes to their.

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<v Speaker 2>Drive through processes.

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<v Speaker 3>But he's a big believer on it, and so although

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<v Speaker 3>it hasn't been very incremental just yet, you know, he

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<v Speaker 3>believes that that this is going to be a huge

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<v Speaker 3>driver for this company. And you know, these are the

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<v Speaker 3>two areas that that innovation kitchen is going to focus on.

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<v Speaker 2>First, well, if.

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<v Speaker 1>They get into a scenario where they can reduce some

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<v Speaker 1>of the build out costs, because that that will open

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<v Speaker 1>up maybe some real estate opportunities for them, which I

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<v Speaker 1>think we'll expand maybe give some venue to expand the

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<v Speaker 1>brand itself. And if you look at where they are

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<v Speaker 1>right now in terms of their growth and what they

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<v Speaker 1>could bring to the market. Back to your point is

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<v Speaker 1>drive through seems to be one of the growing sectors

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<v Speaker 1>for Shakescheck and it's a very good competitive edge for

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<v Speaker 1>them if they can actually speed it up. So that

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<v Speaker 1>will be a big one for Lynch if he pulls

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<v Speaker 1>it off. I'm going to look at this one in

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<v Speaker 1>a few months and see if it's actually had some

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<v Speaker 1>kind of impact on drifting. We get new shake checks

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<v Speaker 1>down here, in Florida where am we finally got one

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<v Speaker 1>out very close to our studio here and with your

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<v Speaker 1>drive through not too long ago, and exactly the same

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<v Speaker 1>problem is that made to order you know, spends that

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<v Speaker 1>drive through time up to around seven to nine minutes,

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<v Speaker 1>and that is just unfortunately too long for most consumers.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, yeah, yeah, And it's you know, listen, the dining

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<v Speaker 3>room and the drive through the they work good together

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<v Speaker 3>in terms of easing pressure on one versus the other, right,

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<v Speaker 3>and maybe the opposite for Shakeshack.

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<v Speaker 2>So whereas us are you know, people use the dining

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<v Speaker 2>room only when the drive through line is too long.

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<v Speaker 2>Well maybe at Shakeshack it's the opposite.

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<v Speaker 3>If the dining room's too busy, I'll use the drive

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<v Speaker 3>through lean right, But they can use pressure on the

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<v Speaker 3>other channel, which is nice to have.

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<v Speaker 1>They've done a good job, I think with the design

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<v Speaker 1>of their restaurants too. In general, most of the news stores,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, they all kind of have unique footprints. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>intrigued to see what Lynch comes up with because of

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<v Speaker 1>his background and how he can you know, increase throughput,

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<v Speaker 1>because I like this whole idea around the line really

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<v Speaker 1>maximizing what drive through speed could be. But with that

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<v Speaker 1>that's probably going to open up and they mentioned it

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<v Speaker 1>in the article, is going to open up a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of opportunity in terms of a kitchen equipment, which could

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<v Speaker 1>really get intriguing if they implement some of this new

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<v Speaker 1>advanced you know tech that seems to be coming in

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<v Speaker 1>from the kitchen industr in terms of you know, back

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<v Speaker 1>of house stuff, so a lot of low hanging back

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<v Speaker 1>to your point, a lot of low hanging fruit. Let's

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<v Speaker 1>get into the healthy eating category, all right, So this

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<v Speaker 1>has been a category that has been winning for years,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I'd say easily the last decade protein bar

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<v Speaker 1>courses talking about this. But I'm more intrigued with your

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<v Speaker 1>opinion on, first of all, how and if healthy can

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<v Speaker 1>truly maintain its current market position or do you feel

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<v Speaker 1>like we're going to start to see a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>of a shift, because if you look at shakesheck covet

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<v Speaker 1>to a certain extent, I would say a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>more healthy, but still very you know, very decadent in

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<v Speaker 1>the sense that you really get really great food there.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you think healthy as maybe run its course or

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<v Speaker 1>do you feel like it's still got an opportunity.

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<v Speaker 3>Here now it still has an opportunity because gen Z

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<v Speaker 3>loves it.

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<v Speaker 2>Right.

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00:20:59.240 --> 00:21:02.680
<v Speaker 3>Gen Z is is you know, it's a small, uh

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00:21:03.039 --> 00:21:06.799
<v Speaker 3>demographic cohort, but they are the trendsetters right now. And

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<v Speaker 3>chains that are attracting large numbers of gen Z seem

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<v Speaker 3>to be outperformed. They are outperforming so and they a

399
00:21:13.720 --> 00:21:16.200
<v Speaker 3>lot of them want you know.

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<v Speaker 2>Healthier food.

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<v Speaker 3>Right, it's going to continue to do better on the coasts.

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00:21:19.839 --> 00:21:22.480
<v Speaker 3>I think Middle America is going to take longer, I think,

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<v Speaker 3>to adopt some of these healthier eating habits, but not

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<v Speaker 3>we We think this is here to stay.

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<v Speaker 1>You mentioned u gen Z and the healthy eater and

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<v Speaker 1>eat healthier eating habits, and then I look at you know,

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<v Speaker 1>some of the categories that are big, you know, really

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<v Speaker 1>big market share for a lot of these casual dining

409
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<v Speaker 1>which has been you know, the liquor business and the

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<v Speaker 1>beverage business. Now you're talking or we hear more and

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<v Speaker 1>more of gen Z is going to where uh you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the mocktail concept. Do you think that's going to split

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<v Speaker 1>up or start to adjust product mix and some of

414
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<v Speaker 1>those day parts for some of these casual dining chains.

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00:22:05.200 --> 00:22:08.559
<v Speaker 1>Since we're seeing some of that healthiness, maybe seep into

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<v Speaker 1>other brands.

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00:22:10.799 --> 00:22:15.359
<v Speaker 3>Uh yeah, Texas Roadhouse just announced a mocktail program, right,

418
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<v Speaker 3>so this is this is here and and and I

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<v Speaker 3>don't think the the push you know, the lower alcohol

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00:22:22.279 --> 00:22:24.920
<v Speaker 3>consumption is just gen Z, right, because a lot of

421
00:22:25.359 --> 00:22:29.160
<v Speaker 3>go across Yeah, a lot of gen Z members are

422
00:22:29.400 --> 00:22:30.720
<v Speaker 3>are you too young to drink?

423
00:22:30.759 --> 00:22:31.160
<v Speaker 2>Anyway?

424
00:22:31.319 --> 00:22:34.880
<v Speaker 3>But you know, when I was at you know, you

425
00:22:34.880 --> 00:22:36.640
<v Speaker 3>know these restaurant conferences.

426
00:22:36.200 --> 00:22:37.680
<v Speaker 2>People really like to get after it.

427
00:22:37.880 --> 00:22:41.359
<v Speaker 3>And I wasn't drinking at the last ICR conference, and

428
00:22:41.559 --> 00:22:43.559
<v Speaker 3>there was a lot of people that I know that

429
00:22:43.640 --> 00:22:46.400
<v Speaker 3>I'm friendly with or friends with that were not drinking.

430
00:22:46.440 --> 00:22:49.319
<v Speaker 3>They were all partaking in dry January. So this is

431
00:22:50.000 --> 00:22:54.559
<v Speaker 3>you know, very much a headwind for full service dining

432
00:22:54.640 --> 00:23:00.119
<v Speaker 3>establishments casual dining, right, And so the mocktail program is smart.

433
00:23:00.200 --> 00:23:03.599
<v Speaker 3>You can offset some of that loss with some fancy,

434
00:23:03.640 --> 00:23:05.960
<v Speaker 3>expensive non alcoholic drinks.

435
00:23:06.039 --> 00:23:06.720
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, there you go.

436
00:23:06.880 --> 00:23:08.599
<v Speaker 1>Well, I think, you know, if it's hitting the right

437
00:23:09.759 --> 00:23:13.480
<v Speaker 1>vein in terms of how some consumers are kind of

438
00:23:13.519 --> 00:23:15.640
<v Speaker 1>going in on this. Typically you see those kind of

439
00:23:15.640 --> 00:23:18.079
<v Speaker 1>things or you know, the calorie counters in the beginning

440
00:23:18.599 --> 00:23:22.200
<v Speaker 1>always you know, kind of resolution based. But it's starting

441
00:23:22.200 --> 00:23:24.759
<v Speaker 1>to last and it seems though the people we've talked to,

442
00:23:24.880 --> 00:23:28.279
<v Speaker 1>the strategies are working in terms of creating a lot

443
00:23:28.400 --> 00:23:33.319
<v Speaker 1>more unique menu offerings, doing like energy infused stuff in

444
00:23:33.400 --> 00:23:36.200
<v Speaker 1>some of the categories. Now we're starting to see some

445
00:23:36.279 --> 00:23:40.440
<v Speaker 1>more savory elements, so it's getting very creative, which I

446
00:23:40.440 --> 00:23:43.720
<v Speaker 1>think could blend into a new opportunity there. Back to

447
00:23:43.759 --> 00:23:47.039
<v Speaker 1>your point on healthy eating that will be interesting to watch.

448
00:23:47.960 --> 00:23:51.400
<v Speaker 1>I want to talk about funding because this is a

449
00:23:51.440 --> 00:23:56.279
<v Speaker 1>story that surprised me that came across Nation's Restaurant News

450
00:23:56.920 --> 00:23:59.359
<v Speaker 1>and Just Salad, which for those of you listening in,

451
00:23:59.440 --> 00:24:01.960
<v Speaker 1>this is a I would say a medium sized chain,

452
00:24:02.720 --> 00:24:05.119
<v Speaker 1>not a massive chain, but they drew in about two

453
00:24:05.160 --> 00:24:07.799
<v Speaker 1>hundred million in funding on a round that was multi

454
00:24:07.920 --> 00:24:12.000
<v Speaker 1>lad here. But the bigger question to me, Michael, is

455
00:24:12.799 --> 00:24:15.599
<v Speaker 1>when you look at where the market is right now

456
00:24:15.640 --> 00:24:20.920
<v Speaker 1>on these medium sized regional chains and or maybe some

457
00:24:20.960 --> 00:24:23.440
<v Speaker 1>of these chains like a Chipotle, or not a Chipotle,

458
00:24:23.480 --> 00:24:27.240
<v Speaker 1>but like a Chili's or some of the other emerging

459
00:24:27.319 --> 00:24:31.599
<v Speaker 1>casual dining concepts that could be going out after cash,

460
00:24:31.599 --> 00:24:33.359
<v Speaker 1>do you think this is something that is kind of

461
00:24:33.400 --> 00:24:36.240
<v Speaker 1>a one offer. Do you feel like there's more money

462
00:24:36.279 --> 00:24:38.039
<v Speaker 1>opening up to the market right now.

463
00:24:38.839 --> 00:24:43.000
<v Speaker 3>We think there's more money opening up backup restaurant finance.

464
00:24:43.119 --> 00:24:45.160
<v Speaker 3>In November, a lot of the bankers that we know

465
00:24:45.240 --> 00:24:50.559
<v Speaker 3>had become more bullish about twenty twenty five versus twenty

466
00:24:50.599 --> 00:24:53.000
<v Speaker 3>twenty four. There's a lot of pent up demand for deals.

467
00:24:53.000 --> 00:24:55.440
<v Speaker 3>Twenty twenty four. Obviously, we're in that restaurant recession. It

468
00:24:55.480 --> 00:25:00.319
<v Speaker 3>was a tough year for valuations and deals, and you know.

469
00:25:00.519 --> 00:25:02.400
<v Speaker 2>Buyers and sellers had to get really creative.

470
00:25:02.519 --> 00:25:05.440
<v Speaker 3>But things that seem to be opening up, and you know,

471
00:25:05.599 --> 00:25:08.359
<v Speaker 3>seam store sales have improved. I know they've been kind

472
00:25:08.359 --> 00:25:10.960
<v Speaker 3>of bumpy, especially here in February with some of the weather,

473
00:25:11.079 --> 00:25:16.200
<v Speaker 3>but they have improved since before the election. And then

474
00:25:16.240 --> 00:25:18.079
<v Speaker 3>I think we have some really you know, I know,

475
00:25:18.119 --> 00:25:21.680
<v Speaker 3>we have some easy uh saame sort of sales comps

476
00:25:21.720 --> 00:25:24.519
<v Speaker 3>to lap and so you know, top lines should be

477
00:25:24.559 --> 00:25:27.559
<v Speaker 3>getting better here. We have asset prices near all time highs,

478
00:25:27.559 --> 00:25:30.799
<v Speaker 3>which should boosts you know, middle and upper income consumer spending,

479
00:25:30.880 --> 00:25:33.559
<v Speaker 3>and so, you know, I think there's a brighter outlook

480
00:25:33.640 --> 00:25:36.119
<v Speaker 3>right now, and we'd expect a lot more deals to

481
00:25:36.160 --> 00:25:37.440
<v Speaker 3>get done this year than last year.

482
00:25:37.480 --> 00:25:37.880
<v Speaker 2>For sure.

483
00:25:38.279 --> 00:25:41.559
<v Speaker 1>What are you looking at for twenty twenty five that

484
00:25:42.000 --> 00:25:45.200
<v Speaker 1>you guys, when you're researching all these brands and you

485
00:25:45.279 --> 00:25:49.359
<v Speaker 1>see these opportunities that seem to be starting to bud

486
00:25:49.799 --> 00:25:52.480
<v Speaker 1>for some of these chains, do you think we're going

487
00:25:52.519 --> 00:25:55.039
<v Speaker 1>to see some more breakouts like what we saw with

488
00:25:55.200 --> 00:25:58.400
<v Speaker 1>Chili's in twenty twenty five for some other brands.

489
00:25:58.880 --> 00:26:01.400
<v Speaker 3>Well, you know, we wrote in our year ahead out

490
00:26:01.400 --> 00:26:05.359
<v Speaker 3>look was that, you know, we're really where we're seeing

491
00:26:05.400 --> 00:26:09.839
<v Speaker 3>a lot of movement and success is with like just

492
00:26:10.039 --> 00:26:13.359
<v Speaker 3>nailing the operations and then marketing right. And so that

493
00:26:13.799 --> 00:26:16.519
<v Speaker 3>what we've seen Chili's do and and continue to do,

494
00:26:16.599 --> 00:26:19.799
<v Speaker 3>and actually now the same store sales are accelerating. There's

495
00:26:19.880 --> 00:26:23.319
<v Speaker 3>some companies that have management changes that we think can

496
00:26:23.839 --> 00:26:27.599
<v Speaker 3>use a similar playbook to boost their same source sales.

497
00:26:27.640 --> 00:26:30.160
<v Speaker 2>And we've talked about all but one.

498
00:26:30.279 --> 00:26:33.640
<v Speaker 3>We talked about Starbucks, we talked about Shake Shack, we

499
00:26:33.720 --> 00:26:36.680
<v Speaker 3>talked about and then it was uh.

500
00:26:37.200 --> 00:26:39.079
<v Speaker 2>Cracker Barrel. Cracker Barrel is the other one.

501
00:26:39.160 --> 00:26:41.400
<v Speaker 3>We think Cracker Barrel has a pretty they have a

502
00:26:41.440 --> 00:26:44.599
<v Speaker 3>new ceou. We think she's doing a phenomenal job. We

503
00:26:44.640 --> 00:26:48.160
<v Speaker 3>think she has a great plan for boosting you know,

504
00:26:48.240 --> 00:26:51.359
<v Speaker 3>same source of sales and traffic going forward. And uh,

505
00:26:51.400 --> 00:26:54.440
<v Speaker 3>that's another company we think has a pretty good opportunity.

506
00:26:54.480 --> 00:26:57.400
<v Speaker 1>Do you think that demographic has shifted for Cracker Barrel

507
00:26:57.519 --> 00:27:01.519
<v Speaker 1>some or or is it just there maybe their approach

508
00:27:01.640 --> 00:27:05.039
<v Speaker 1>toward their own business itself of just remodeling it to

509
00:27:05.079 --> 00:27:08.640
<v Speaker 1>where it's going to get better in terms of performance. Yeah.

510
00:27:08.960 --> 00:27:13.319
<v Speaker 3>So the food, you know, the food innovation, you know,

511
00:27:14.000 --> 00:27:15.960
<v Speaker 3>is going to be a big one this year to

512
00:27:16.000 --> 00:27:16.799
<v Speaker 3>help draw in.

513
00:27:18.839 --> 00:27:20.359
<v Speaker 2>You know, draw in customers.

514
00:27:20.359 --> 00:27:24.119
<v Speaker 3>But it's really it's the same thing starting with the operations, right,

515
00:27:24.119 --> 00:27:27.440
<v Speaker 3>It's like getting nailing the service, getting the experience right,

516
00:27:28.359 --> 00:27:31.279
<v Speaker 3>you know, and then it's menu innovation. So now when

517
00:27:31.319 --> 00:27:33.160
<v Speaker 3>we bring in a customer, they're not going to have

518
00:27:33.200 --> 00:27:35.319
<v Speaker 3>a bad experience and they're going to want to come back, right,

519
00:27:35.400 --> 00:27:38.279
<v Speaker 3>And so they've nailed those. Now they're going to market

520
00:27:38.400 --> 00:27:39.319
<v Speaker 3>more aggressively.

521
00:27:39.640 --> 00:27:39.799
<v Speaker 2>Right.

522
00:27:39.799 --> 00:27:44.000
<v Speaker 3>They're doing some stuff on TikTok as well. They're doing

523
00:27:44.039 --> 00:27:47.519
<v Speaker 3>more advertising during NASCAR and Bravo, which has a huge

524
00:27:47.519 --> 00:27:52.119
<v Speaker 3>overlap between CDR customers and Bravo watchers.

525
00:27:52.240 --> 00:27:52.440
<v Speaker 1>Right.

526
00:27:52.519 --> 00:27:57.400
<v Speaker 3>And so now they're they're you know, advertising around more

527
00:27:57.680 --> 00:28:03.119
<v Speaker 3>relevant modern food. It's you know, their typical Southern like

528
00:28:03.200 --> 00:28:06.839
<v Speaker 3>classics with a twist, right, and and and then the

529
00:28:06.880 --> 00:28:09.519
<v Speaker 3>remodels will be next year. The remodels are are a

530
00:28:09.559 --> 00:28:12.680
<v Speaker 3>big part of drawing in the gen Z customers. Right,

531
00:28:12.720 --> 00:28:19.200
<v Speaker 3>They're gonna have a brighter, brighter tones in terms of paint,

532
00:28:19.240 --> 00:28:21.319
<v Speaker 3>They're gonna have more lighting in the stores, and they

533
00:28:21.319 --> 00:28:23.880
<v Speaker 3>think that will help attract the younger generations.

534
00:28:23.960 --> 00:28:25.799
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, that's what I'm a little bit more excited about

535
00:28:25.920 --> 00:28:29.920
<v Speaker 1>is to see a new design theme kind of brought

536
00:28:29.960 --> 00:28:33.200
<v Speaker 1>forward to because we are seeing quite a few brands

537
00:28:33.240 --> 00:28:36.839
<v Speaker 1>that that have done some fairly successful remakes over the

538
00:28:36.880 --> 00:28:39.000
<v Speaker 1>last few years in terms of just what they've done

539
00:28:39.039 --> 00:28:43.119
<v Speaker 1>from a design standpoint. So Cracker Barrel, of course, has

540
00:28:43.160 --> 00:28:46.640
<v Speaker 1>been a long standing brand that kind of lives in

541
00:28:46.680 --> 00:28:50.160
<v Speaker 1>that theme, you know, of very southern roots, and I

542
00:28:50.200 --> 00:28:53.359
<v Speaker 1>get it. So it'll be interesting considered.

543
00:28:53.400 --> 00:28:56.279
<v Speaker 2>It was interesting. Sorry, yeah, it was interesting.

544
00:28:56.319 --> 00:28:59.640
<v Speaker 3>It's a it's an old country store theme, so they

545
00:28:59.759 --> 00:29:03.160
<v Speaker 3>thought and for the longest time they were right that

546
00:29:03.240 --> 00:29:05.599
<v Speaker 3>they didn't have to do a full remodel of the

547
00:29:05.599 --> 00:29:08.240
<v Speaker 3>stores because it's in an old country store, right, And

548
00:29:08.279 --> 00:29:11.279
<v Speaker 3>it was a great you know, point of emphasis for

549
00:29:11.359 --> 00:29:13.519
<v Speaker 3>investors going back ten years ago. It is like this

550
00:29:13.599 --> 00:29:15.680
<v Speaker 3>company spends way less on cap X and then they

551
00:29:15.680 --> 00:29:17.519
<v Speaker 3>can use that cash to buy back shares and pay

552
00:29:17.519 --> 00:29:18.000
<v Speaker 3>a dividend.

553
00:29:18.079 --> 00:29:20.759
<v Speaker 2>Right, And but it caught up to them, right.

554
00:29:20.839 --> 00:29:25.759
<v Speaker 3>The younger generations want.

555
00:29:24.079 --> 00:29:26.759
<v Speaker 2>You know, they're more discerning and then they almost what

556
00:29:26.880 --> 00:29:27.240
<v Speaker 2>they want.

557
00:29:27.880 --> 00:29:31.960
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, yeah, so always do for sure. Michael has been

558
00:29:31.960 --> 00:29:34.000
<v Speaker 1>good catching up with you. I love to do the

559
00:29:34.079 --> 00:29:37.400
<v Speaker 1>rundown on where some of these are. Each quarter we

560
00:29:37.440 --> 00:29:41.240
<v Speaker 1>try to look at what's happening in the performance. Obviously

561
00:29:41.240 --> 00:29:43.319
<v Speaker 1>we're ending up here in Q one and getting ready

562
00:29:43.319 --> 00:29:45.480
<v Speaker 1>to in March. Uh So this will be a good

563
00:29:45.519 --> 00:29:46.960
<v Speaker 1>one because we'll get a chance to see some new

564
00:29:47.000 --> 00:29:49.759
<v Speaker 1>earnings come in hopefully soon and see how some of

565
00:29:49.799 --> 00:29:51.880
<v Speaker 1>these brands are doing. So we'll definitely get you back

566
00:29:51.920 --> 00:29:53.519
<v Speaker 1>on the show. But thanks for coming in today. I

567
00:29:53.559 --> 00:29:54.599
<v Speaker 1>appreciate it.

568
00:29:54.680 --> 00:29:55.880
<v Speaker 2>Sure think you.

569
00:29:55.839 --> 00:29:59.119
<v Speaker 1>Bet are you guys? If you're not, you know, subscribe

570
00:29:59.160 --> 00:30:00.799
<v Speaker 1>to the channel. Make sure do that. Of course you

571
00:30:00.839 --> 00:30:03.720
<v Speaker 1>can catch Michael Haling over on Bloomberg and learn a

572
00:30:03.720 --> 00:30:06.200
<v Speaker 1>little bit more about what their analysis is. But all

573
00:30:06.200 --> 00:30:08.279
<v Speaker 1>you have to do is jump over to sav Fm.

574
00:30:08.319 --> 00:30:10.599
<v Speaker 1>You'll find us over there and all of our podcasts.

575
00:30:11.160 --> 00:30:15.119
<v Speaker 1>Also check out the YouTube channel, which is approaching two

576
00:30:15.160 --> 00:30:16.519
<v Speaker 1>hundred thousand subscribers.

577
00:30:16.519 --> 00:30:16.839
<v Speaker 2>That's right.

578
00:30:16.880 --> 00:30:18.759
<v Speaker 1>It's because of you guys, so make sure and comment

579
00:30:18.799 --> 00:30:20.759
<v Speaker 1>down below. Give us a like or two if you

580
00:30:20.799 --> 00:30:22.920
<v Speaker 1>are watching the video version of this. If you're in

581
00:30:22.960 --> 00:30:25.359
<v Speaker 1>the audio version, just give us a start and we'll

582
00:30:25.400 --> 00:30:27.359
<v Speaker 1>catch you next time right here on the restaurant Report
