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<v Speaker 1>Geopolitics, Daily Global News Briefing. I'm Janie Kore. Thanks for

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<v Speaker 1>joining me today. When ceasefires collapse in forty eight hours.

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<v Speaker 1>The June ceasefire between the US and Iran lasted less

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<v Speaker 1>than a week. Turan formally suspended its obligations overnight, Supremely

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<v Speaker 1>de Carmenae called Trump's signature worthless, and American strikes entered

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<v Speaker 1>their eighth consecutive night. That's the lead. Everything else this

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<v Speaker 1>briefing covers flows from it. The agreement that collapsed was

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<v Speaker 1>supposed to hold for sixty days. It included a framework

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<v Speaker 1>for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a parallel structure

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<v Speaker 1>for ending hostilities in Lebanon. It fell apart faster than

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<v Speaker 1>almost any comparable diplomatic arrangement in recent memory. The immediate

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<v Speaker 1>trigger was the death of two U S service members

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<v Speaker 1>in Jordan from Iranian linked to tax with a third

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<v Speaker 1>reported missing. These are the first American combat fatalities in

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<v Speaker 1>this cycle, and that changes the political calculus significantly. The

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<v Speaker 1>Trump administration launched retaliatory strikes the same night and has

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<v Speaker 1>continued every night since. No stated endpoint, no defined objective.

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<v Speaker 1>Eight strikes in and the administration is offering no clarity

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<v Speaker 1>on what success looks like. Here's the key implication. When

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<v Speaker 1>a military campaign has no declared off ramp, the other

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<v Speaker 1>side has no reliable path to de escalation either. That's

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<v Speaker 1>not a seasier environment, that's a pressure contest. The consequences

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<v Speaker 1>in the Strait of Hormuz were almost immediate. At least

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<v Speaker 1>four oil and gas tanker's reversed course rather than attempt transit.

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<v Speaker 1>Brent crude rose five percent to above seventy eight dollars

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<v Speaker 1>per barrel within the trading session. The US naval blockade

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<v Speaker 1>has been reinforced, with five Iranian commercial vessels redirected and

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<v Speaker 1>one disabled. Trump has also threatened to seize carg Island,

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<v Speaker 1>Iran's primary oil export hub. That threat, if acted on,

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<v Speaker 1>would represent a significant escalation beyond air strikes. The signal

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<v Speaker 1>in the oil market isn't just price, it's the speed

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<v Speaker 1>of the reaction. Markets had partially priced in Ceasca stability.

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<v Speaker 1>That assumption is now being unwound. Here's the thing. Running

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<v Speaker 1>parallel to the military campaign. International mediators are reportedly working

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<v Speaker 1>on a ten day ceasefire proposal to create space for

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<v Speaker 1>renewed talks. The important distinction here is that neither Washington

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<v Speaker 1>nor Tehran has confirmed this publicly. It's a diplomatic track,

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<v Speaker 1>not a confirmed negotiation. Ten days is also a very

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<v Speaker 1>short window. It suggests mediators are trying to stop the

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<v Speaker 1>bleeding rather than build anything durable. Whether either side would

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<v Speaker 1>accept the terms or use the pause tactically to reposition

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<v Speaker 1>is genuinely unresolved. Iran's internal dynamics complicate this further. Hardliners

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<v Speaker 1>are reportedly attacking ceasefire negotiators, accusing diplomatic officials of staging

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<v Speaker 1>what they're calling a soft coup. That's not a government

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<v Speaker 1>in a position to make quick concessions. Separate from the

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<v Speaker 1>Middle East. There's a significant development out of Brussels. The

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<v Speaker 1>twenty first peckage of EU sanctions on Russia has hit

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<v Speaker 1>an unprecedented level of internal disagreement. Greece, France, Italy, Germany,

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<v Speaker 1>Austria and Portugal have all either demanded exemptions or block

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<v Speaker 1>specific provisions. That's six of the block's largest economies refusing

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<v Speaker 1>to move in step. Four years of escalating sanctions have

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<v Speaker 1>left member states absorbing real economic costs, and domestic political

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<v Speaker 1>pressure is now overriding collective strategy. The signal here isn't

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<v Speaker 1>that sanctions are ending. It's that the consensus model is fracturing,

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<v Speaker 1>and once major members start demanding carvats openly, the logic

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<v Speaker 1>of unified pressure becomes much harder to maintain. Consider this,

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<v Speaker 1>Lebanese President Joseph Rohn arrived in Washington for meetings with

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<v Speaker 1>the State Department with a session with Trump scheduled. Israeli

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<v Speaker 1>and HESBLA forces are still clashing on the ground despite

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<v Speaker 1>the existing ceasefire framework. The gap between what's being negotiated

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<v Speaker 1>in Washington and what's happening in the field is a

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<v Speaker 1>real problem. Diplomatic progress in a capitol and Milich try

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<v Speaker 1>activity on the ground tend to undermine each other when

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<v Speaker 1>they run simultaneously without coordination. The near term signals worth

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<v Speaker 1>tracking are straightforward. Does the US define an objective for

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<v Speaker 1>its ERAM campaign or does it remain open ended? Does

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<v Speaker 1>the ten day cease fire proposal get confirmed by either government?

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<v Speaker 1>Does the EU sanction's package get diluted or delayed? And

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<v Speaker 1>does Brent crude continue climbing if hormus shipping disruption extends

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<v Speaker 1>beyond this week? The through line across all of it

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<v Speaker 1>is the same formal frameworks are collapsing faster than they're

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<v Speaker 1>being replaced. Cease fires, sanctions, consensus, diplomatic coordination. The gaps

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<v Speaker 1>between what's agreed and what's happening on the ground are widening.

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<v Speaker 1>That's the pattern to watch. Thanks for listening. This podcast

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<v Speaker 1>was built using AI technology, a yes We production