Speaker 1: Geopolitics, Daily Global News Briefing. I'm Janie Kore. Thanks for
Speaker 1: joining me today. When ceasefires collapse in forty eight hours.
Speaker 1: The June ceasefire between the US and Iran lasted less
Speaker 1: than a week. Turan formally suspended its obligations overnight, Supremely
Speaker 1: de Carmenae called Trump's signature worthless, and American strikes entered
Speaker 1: their eighth consecutive night. That's the lead. Everything else this
Speaker 1: briefing covers flows from it. The agreement that collapsed was
Speaker 1: supposed to hold for sixty days. It included a framework
Speaker 1: for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a parallel structure
Speaker 1: for ending hostilities in Lebanon. It fell apart faster than
Speaker 1: almost any comparable diplomatic arrangement in recent memory. The immediate
Speaker 1: trigger was the death of two U S service members
Speaker 1: in Jordan from Iranian linked to tax with a third
Speaker 1: reported missing. These are the first American combat fatalities in
Speaker 1: this cycle, and that changes the political calculus significantly. The
Speaker 1: Trump administration launched retaliatory strikes the same night and has
Speaker 1: continued every night since. No stated endpoint, no defined objective.
Speaker 1: Eight strikes in and the administration is offering no clarity
Speaker 1: on what success looks like. Here's the key implication. When
Speaker 1: a military campaign has no declared off ramp, the other
Speaker 1: side has no reliable path to de escalation either. That's
Speaker 1: not a seasier environment, that's a pressure contest. The consequences
Speaker 1: in the Strait of Hormuz were almost immediate. At least
Speaker 1: four oil and gas tanker's reversed course rather than attempt transit.
Speaker 1: Brent crude rose five percent to above seventy eight dollars
Speaker 1: per barrel within the trading session. The US naval blockade
Speaker 1: has been reinforced, with five Iranian commercial vessels redirected and
Speaker 1: one disabled. Trump has also threatened to seize carg Island,
Speaker 1: Iran's primary oil export hub. That threat, if acted on,
Speaker 1: would represent a significant escalation beyond air strikes. The signal
Speaker 1: in the oil market isn't just price, it's the speed
Speaker 1: of the reaction. Markets had partially priced in Ceasca stability.
Speaker 1: That assumption is now being unwound. Here's the thing. Running
Speaker 1: parallel to the military campaign. International mediators are reportedly working
Speaker 1: on a ten day ceasefire proposal to create space for
Speaker 1: renewed talks. The important distinction here is that neither Washington
Speaker 1: nor Tehran has confirmed this publicly. It's a diplomatic track,
Speaker 1: not a confirmed negotiation. Ten days is also a very
Speaker 1: short window. It suggests mediators are trying to stop the
Speaker 1: bleeding rather than build anything durable. Whether either side would
Speaker 1: accept the terms or use the pause tactically to reposition
Speaker 1: is genuinely unresolved. Iran's internal dynamics complicate this further. Hardliners
Speaker 1: are reportedly attacking ceasefire negotiators, accusing diplomatic officials of staging
Speaker 1: what they're calling a soft coup. That's not a government
Speaker 1: in a position to make quick concessions. Separate from the
Speaker 1: Middle East. There's a significant development out of Brussels. The
Speaker 1: twenty first peckage of EU sanctions on Russia has hit
Speaker 1: an unprecedented level of internal disagreement. Greece, France, Italy, Germany,
Speaker 1: Austria and Portugal have all either demanded exemptions or block
Speaker 1: specific provisions. That's six of the block's largest economies refusing
Speaker 1: to move in step. Four years of escalating sanctions have
Speaker 1: left member states absorbing real economic costs, and domestic political
Speaker 1: pressure is now overriding collective strategy. The signal here isn't
Speaker 1: that sanctions are ending. It's that the consensus model is fracturing,
Speaker 1: and once major members start demanding carvats openly, the logic
Speaker 1: of unified pressure becomes much harder to maintain. Consider this,
Speaker 1: Lebanese President Joseph Rohn arrived in Washington for meetings with
Speaker 1: the State Department with a session with Trump scheduled. Israeli
Speaker 1: and HESBLA forces are still clashing on the ground despite
Speaker 1: the existing ceasefire framework. The gap between what's being negotiated
Speaker 1: in Washington and what's happening in the field is a
Speaker 1: real problem. Diplomatic progress in a capitol and Milich try
Speaker 1: activity on the ground tend to undermine each other when
Speaker 1: they run simultaneously without coordination. The near term signals worth
Speaker 1: tracking are straightforward. Does the US define an objective for
Speaker 1: its ERAM campaign or does it remain open ended? Does
Speaker 1: the ten day cease fire proposal get confirmed by either government?
Speaker 1: Does the EU sanction's package get diluted or delayed? And
Speaker 1: does Brent crude continue climbing if hormus shipping disruption extends
Speaker 1: beyond this week? The through line across all of it
Speaker 1: is the same formal frameworks are collapsing faster than they're
Speaker 1: being replaced. Cease fires, sanctions, consensus, diplomatic coordination. The gaps
Speaker 1: between what's agreed and what's happening on the ground are widening.
Speaker 1: That's the pattern to watch. Thanks for listening. This podcast
Speaker 1: was built using AI technology, a yes We production