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<v Speaker 1>Geopolitics, Daily Global News Briefing. I'm Jamie Caule. Thanks for

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<v Speaker 1>joining me today. Horn Mood escalation threatens global oil supply again.

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<v Speaker 1>Only thirteen ships passed through the Strait of hor Moos

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<v Speaker 1>on Wednesday before this escalation began. That number was closer

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<v Speaker 1>to one hundred and thirty. That's not a disruption. That's

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<v Speaker 1>a near total shutdown of one of the world's most

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<v Speaker 1>critical energy choke points. And it's getting worse. Here's where

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<v Speaker 1>things stand. The US and Iran are now five days

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<v Speaker 1>into renewed strikes after the ISLMAD ceasefire signed just over

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<v Speaker 1>a month ago, collapsed completely. The US military conducted a

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<v Speaker 1>second strike wave this week, targeting Iran's coastal defense systems.

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<v Speaker 1>Trump has publicly threatened to destroy bridges and power plants

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<v Speaker 1>next week unless Iran returns to the negotiating table. Iran's

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<v Speaker 1>response was to name the Strait of hor Moo's an

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<v Speaker 1>unbreakable red line. Its military is threatened to destroy regional

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<v Speaker 1>energy infrastructure if those strikes happen. That's not rhetorical posturing.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a direct threat to Golf State oil facilities, and

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<v Speaker 1>the Golf States know it. The key implication here is timing.

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<v Speaker 1>Strategic oil reserves were already drawn down heavily between March

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<v Speaker 1>and May, roughly three hundred and sixty million barrels pulled

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<v Speaker 1>from stockpiles. The IEAS warned those buffers are largely depleted.

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<v Speaker 1>If the blockade holds for another two to three weeks,

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<v Speaker 1>there's very little cushion left before prices move sharply. The

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<v Speaker 1>first tanker was disabled under the reimposed blockade this week.

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<v Speaker 1>That's the signal the threat has become operational. Fifteen thousand

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<v Speaker 1>Indian sailors are currently stranded west of the Strait after

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<v Speaker 1>two were killed in recent drone attacks. India has now

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<v Speaker 1>ordered shipowners to stop deploying Indian crew on any vessel

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<v Speaker 1>transiting Homus. The human cost is already landing in Mumbai,

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<v Speaker 1>Chennai and New Delhi. What makes this escalation structurally different

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<v Speaker 1>from previous US around confrontations is the absence of any

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<v Speaker 1>visible offering. Five days of strikes, escalating threats, no actor

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<v Speaker 1>diplomatic channel. The ceasefire collapsed after one month without either

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<v Speaker 1>side locking in a durable framework. Trump's threat to target

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<v Speaker 1>power plants in bridges next week raises the stakes considerably

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<v Speaker 1>and the RAN's counter threat to hit Gulf infrastructure raises

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<v Speaker 1>them further. The signal here is that both sides are

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<v Speaker 1>communicating through military action, not through negotiation. That's a pattern

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<v Speaker 1>that tends to compound itself. Dere's the thing separate but connected.

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<v Speaker 1>The Ukraine Military aid coalition cracked publicly this week. Bulgaria

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<v Speaker 1>refused a NATA demand for continued military support, Slovakia rejected

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<v Speaker 1>a seventy billion euro annual military package. The US also

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<v Speaker 1>pulled its own commitment from the same framework. This isn't

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<v Speaker 1>a quiet disagreement. Multiple governments have now publicly broken with

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<v Speaker 1>the coalition, citing domestic budget pressure. The important distinction is

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<v Speaker 1>between disagreement and fracture. Disagreements inside alliances are normal. What

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<v Speaker 1>happened this week looks more like fracture because it's several

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<v Speaker 1>countries simultaneously publicly on a formal commitment. If others read

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<v Speaker 1>that as permission to step back, the Domino risk is real.

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<v Speaker 1>One more story that deserves serious attention. Satellite imagery has

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<v Speaker 1>confirmed that China built full scale replicas of US naval vessels,

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<v Speaker 1>American military bases, and Taipei government buildings inside the Takhlimarkan Desert.

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<v Speaker 1>They're connected by a twenty three mile rail track designed

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<v Speaker 1>to simulate moving naval targets. This is purpose built combat

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<v Speaker 1>training infrastructure for a Taiwan conflict scenario, and the scale

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<v Speaker 1>of it suggests this isn't preparation for a distant hypothetical.

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<v Speaker 1>The EU bann gold imports from Sudan this week, covering

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<v Speaker 1>roughly sixty percent of Sudan's exports. The stated reason is

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<v Speaker 1>that gold revenues financing both sides of a civil war

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<v Speaker 1>that has now killed more than one hundred and fifty

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<v Speaker 1>thousand people. The EU move matters, but critics point out

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<v Speaker 1>that the country's most directly enabling the warring factions, the UAE,

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<v Speaker 1>Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, remain unsanctioned by either the US

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<v Speaker 1>or Europe. Consider this. Meanwhile, the Trump administration vetoed UN

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<v Speaker 1>funding for the African Union's peacekeeping mission in Somalia, citing

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<v Speaker 1>Somalia's internal governance failures. The risk is straightforward. Without that mission,

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<v Speaker 1>Al Shabab's resurgence becomes considerably more likely. The next seventy

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<v Speaker 1>two hours around Hormuz are the most consequential near term

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<v Speaker 1>watchpoint Trump's threatened infrastructure strikes are timed for next week.

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<v Speaker 1>Iran's counter threat is already on the table. If either

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<v Speaker 1>side follows through the Strait's partial shot down becomes something

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<v Speaker 1>much harder to reverse. Watch the iia's next reserve assessment,

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<v Speaker 1>the movement of tankers through the Strait, and whether any

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<v Speaker 1>back channel is quietly opened before those strikes happen. Those

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<v Speaker 1>are the real signals worth tracking right now. Thanks for listening.

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<v Speaker 1>This podcast was built using AI technology, a Yes We

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<v Speaker 1>production