1 00:00:22,239 --> 00:00:25,640 Speaker 1: And hello, Hello, Hello, Hello, how are you welcome to 2 00:00:26,000 --> 00:00:31,440 the Big podcast. I have to go back a couple 3 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:33,280 of days. I don't know, two or three days ago 4 00:00:33,399 --> 00:00:37,840 something like that. We were asking the question will our 5 00:00:37,960 --> 00:00:43,640 blockade work? And then yesterday we got to the point 6 00:00:43,840 --> 00:00:48,119 of the blockade really appears to be working. It is 7 00:00:48,560 --> 00:00:54,119 jamming the economy of Iran. They are already hurting and 8 00:00:54,159 --> 00:00:56,359 this is going to hurt them a lot very quickly. 9 00:00:56,920 --> 00:00:59,079 Wonder how long it will take. Maybe a couple of 10 00:00:59,119 --> 00:01:02,920 weeks in their economy will collapse. Well, it's on the 11 00:01:03,039 --> 00:01:07,799 verge of it. But today was a clear sign that 12 00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:13,159 the Iranians have changed everything. They came out and they said, 13 00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:17,680 you know, the blockade of the Strait of Horror Moves 14 00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:21,200 is over. We are not prohibiting anybody from going through 15 00:01:21,239 --> 00:01:26,359 the Strait of horm Moves. So the president says, okay, 16 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:29,120 that's nice that you're doing that, but we're keeping the 17 00:01:29,159 --> 00:01:32,439 blockade up. We're still going to keep the blockade up, 18 00:01:32,480 --> 00:01:35,560 there's no question about it. So as a result, and 19 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:38,560 oh by the way, that blockade, he said, is going 20 00:01:38,640 --> 00:01:42,000 to stay up until we have a one hundred percent agreement. 21 00:01:42,519 --> 00:01:46,640 So the pressure is on Iran to hurry up and 22 00:01:46,799 --> 00:01:51,680 come to an agreement, and you better basically give a 23 00:01:51,719 --> 00:01:54,359 lot more than you're asking for, because they were asking 24 00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:57,079 for a lot of various things the other day. So 25 00:01:57,239 --> 00:02:04,200 now it obviously is hurting Iran's economy severely. I think 26 00:02:04,239 --> 00:02:06,840 this is a big sign that they have more than 27 00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:12,800 blinked huge. The stock market obviously is on a rally. 28 00:02:12,919 --> 00:02:18,159 The oil prices are dropping significantly. But the president said 29 00:02:18,199 --> 00:02:21,759 on true social he says no opening of the blockade 30 00:02:22,400 --> 00:02:27,800 for Iran and Asia. I mean, China particularly has got 31 00:02:27,840 --> 00:02:30,280 to be going, you've got to open that thing up 32 00:02:30,319 --> 00:02:32,240 around I think China picked up the bone and called 33 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:33,639 them and said, you got to open it up. We 34 00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:36,960 need our oil. And I think that's what led to it. 35 00:02:37,240 --> 00:02:42,240 They're saying that the reason that they decided to open 36 00:02:42,439 --> 00:02:46,199 the straight up horror moves, at least from their standpoint, 37 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:51,560 is because of the cease fire between Israel and Hasbo Lah. 38 00:02:52,400 --> 00:02:54,800 And I'm going, I don't know if anybody believes that, 39 00:02:55,840 --> 00:03:01,120 but it it's quite something. Let's check in with Dan Hoffman, 40 00:03:01,280 --> 00:03:04,759 the CIA guy, see if he buys all of this 41 00:03:04,919 --> 00:03:06,680 and how this is going to work. 42 00:03:07,759 --> 00:03:09,960 Speaker 2: I think that statement about the straight of horror moves 43 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:15,439 is a significant confidence building measure. It's the first steps 44 00:03:15,479 --> 00:03:22,360 potentially for framework whereby we dial down our military involvement 45 00:03:22,919 --> 00:03:25,280 and get to the stage where we can have real 46 00:03:25,319 --> 00:03:29,680 diplomatic negotiations. We've started that process, but the negotiations I 47 00:03:29,680 --> 00:03:32,400 think are going to be painstaking. I don't have any 48 00:03:32,439 --> 00:03:35,439 hope that there's going to be an immediate agreement, but 49 00:03:35,719 --> 00:03:38,280 there is the potential for the framework for an agreement 50 00:03:39,199 --> 00:03:43,159 whereby we see a free passage through the strait of 51 00:03:43,199 --> 00:03:46,479 horror moves and the corresponding impact on the global economy 52 00:03:46,479 --> 00:03:47,800 and our economy here at home. 53 00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:52,479 Speaker 1: I mean I talked about the Iranian economy. Our economy 54 00:03:52,520 --> 00:03:55,719 is also being hurt. Everybody's economy is being hurt by 55 00:03:55,759 --> 00:03:59,840 these oil prices around the world. But has the blockade 56 00:04:00,439 --> 00:04:01,280 Has it been worth it? 57 00:04:02,400 --> 00:04:02,599 Speaker 3: Yeah? 58 00:04:02,639 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 2: I think the blockade has been successful. I do think 59 00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:07,879 Iran has a high threshold for pain, especially when it 60 00:04:07,919 --> 00:04:12,879 comes to Iranian citizens. This regime obviously has no problem 61 00:04:12,919 --> 00:04:18,480 with violating their human rights and making their lives miserable. 62 00:04:18,759 --> 00:04:20,800 But what I think was hanging in the balance was 63 00:04:20,800 --> 00:04:24,959 a resumption of US kinetic strikes, and what I think 64 00:04:25,000 --> 00:04:29,079 Iran really wants is a continuation of the ceasefire while 65 00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:30,759 negotiations carry on. 66 00:04:30,839 --> 00:04:32,720 Speaker 1: I think that's what they really want. Now. 67 00:04:32,720 --> 00:04:36,040 Speaker 2: The Trump administration delivered our own confidence building measure by 68 00:04:36,040 --> 00:04:39,120 bringing Israel and Lebanon together for the first time in 69 00:04:39,160 --> 00:04:42,240 almost fifty years for a ten days ceasefire, which was 70 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:47,160 something that Iran wanted. So these are positive steps, but 71 00:04:47,240 --> 00:04:49,959 I think it's still tenuous. We need to see how 72 00:04:50,720 --> 00:04:53,519 transport actually happens today at the strait of horror news. 73 00:04:53,639 --> 00:04:56,720 But there's reason for some guarded optimism right now. 74 00:04:56,839 --> 00:04:59,839 Speaker 1: And the guarded part is that they don't they don't 75 00:05:00,120 --> 00:05:02,360 the truth, and so we got to watch them and 76 00:05:02,360 --> 00:05:05,879 see just exactly what they do from here. What about 77 00:05:05,920 --> 00:05:08,519 the nuclear dust as the President calls. 78 00:05:08,279 --> 00:05:10,879 Speaker 2: It, And look, Ron has said for twenty years that 79 00:05:10,920 --> 00:05:14,360 they don't want a nuclear program, but of course, behind 80 00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:17,680 the scenes, clandestinely they pursued one. The concern we have, 81 00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:20,040 of course, is the disposition of the thousand pounds of 82 00:05:20,160 --> 00:05:23,600 uranium that they have, and not just nuclear enrichment, but 83 00:05:23,639 --> 00:05:26,120 centrifugees for example. This is where the devil's in the 84 00:05:26,120 --> 00:05:29,120 details of an agreement. If Iron were able to develop 85 00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:32,480 their centerfuges, and we had a time based moratorium on 86 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:36,040 nuclear enrichment, say fifteen or twenty years, and when that expires, 87 00:05:36,040 --> 00:05:38,720 Iran could produce a nuclear weapon. I think that's what 88 00:05:38,759 --> 00:05:41,040 the President is concerned about, and that's why I don't 89 00:05:41,040 --> 00:05:44,040 think he wants to agree to any sort of a 90 00:05:44,120 --> 00:05:45,959 time based deal. 91 00:05:46,199 --> 00:05:49,439 Speaker 1: And I'm glad because I'm very much with the President 92 00:05:49,480 --> 00:05:52,920 on this no five year, ten year, twenty year sort 93 00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:57,519 of moratorium. Nick Robertson is on the ground in the 94 00:05:57,560 --> 00:06:00,319 Middle East, and from his vantage point, this is what 95 00:06:00,399 --> 00:06:00,839 he sees. 96 00:06:01,519 --> 00:06:05,319 Speaker 4: It's a significant development. The Iranians are framing it as 97 00:06:05,360 --> 00:06:08,959 a result of the ceasefire in Lebanon. That was something 98 00:06:09,000 --> 00:06:14,920 that they'd wanted to have. We have Pakistan's top mediators 99 00:06:15,000 --> 00:06:17,959 in Tehran now entering the third day of talk at 100 00:06:18,000 --> 00:06:21,519 the Foreign Minister with their head of the parliaments to 101 00:06:21,680 --> 00:06:25,079 ahead of any hitting team. Met with the president as well. 102 00:06:25,079 --> 00:06:28,000 They've met with the military generals and they have been 103 00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:31,759 trying to narrow the differences between the United States and Iraq. 104 00:06:32,040 --> 00:06:35,079 And of course, from the Iranian perspective, getting a ceasefire 105 00:06:35,079 --> 00:06:39,240 at Lebanon was big. They thanked the Pakistani negotiating team 106 00:06:39,279 --> 00:06:42,759 for AIV yesterday, and when we sort of think in 107 00:06:42,879 --> 00:06:46,959 diplomatic terms of breakdowns of trust that happened over the weekend, 108 00:06:46,959 --> 00:06:50,319 the Iranians leaving Islamabad when JD. Van said had put 109 00:06:50,319 --> 00:06:52,399 the final and best offer on the table and the 110 00:06:52,399 --> 00:06:55,759 Iranians saying, but you've moved the goalposts. A lack of trust. 111 00:06:56,160 --> 00:06:59,920 Then you get to confidence building measures. The Lebanon Sea 112 00:07:00,160 --> 00:07:04,079 fire was a confidence building measure for the Iranians that's 113 00:07:04,160 --> 00:07:06,720 helped them, and it appears now and they're saying this 114 00:07:06,879 --> 00:07:10,040 explicitly linked to them opening the straight up homers for 115 00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:14,000 the duration of that ceasefire in Lebanon, which is ten days, 116 00:07:14,040 --> 00:07:18,920 So they're linking their goodwill to that ceasefire holding in Lebanon. 117 00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:23,920 But it also indicates that the Pakistani mediators in Tehran 118 00:07:24,199 --> 00:07:28,600 are making some progress, but it's not a done deal yet. 119 00:07:28,680 --> 00:07:32,040 And the thorniust of issue is that core issue of 120 00:07:32,519 --> 00:07:37,319 uranium enrichment. What happens to those enrichment facilities, What happens 121 00:07:37,319 --> 00:07:40,360 to that nuclear dust, as President Trump calls it, Who 122 00:07:40,399 --> 00:07:42,959 goes into Iran if they do to get it out, 123 00:07:43,079 --> 00:07:46,639 what country it goes to? Who oversees all of that. 124 00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:49,639 These are going to be the thorniest of details. And 125 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:52,519 in the background to all of that, Iran has been 126 00:07:52,519 --> 00:07:57,720 demanding war reparations. They've been demanding sanctions be lifted. They've 127 00:07:57,720 --> 00:08:03,959 been demanding that they get access to frozen assets as well. 128 00:08:04,240 --> 00:08:07,319 Billions and billions of dollars. This is what they've been 129 00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:09,360 asking for. They even said that they talked about it 130 00:08:09,399 --> 00:08:13,399 in the talks over the weekend, eight billion of frozen 131 00:08:13,399 --> 00:08:17,720 assets they wanted given over. The White House knocked that 132 00:08:17,839 --> 00:08:21,560 down over the weekend. So the precise details of what's 133 00:08:21,600 --> 00:08:24,639 going on inside those talks in Tehran we don't know. 134 00:08:25,120 --> 00:08:29,000 What we do know is so far there's been slow 135 00:08:29,319 --> 00:08:33,879 but sure but steady progress. Now, can those really big 136 00:08:33,919 --> 00:08:38,879 final hurdles of achieving what JD. Vance and the President 137 00:08:39,080 --> 00:08:42,039 want to see, which is Iran say we're never going 138 00:08:42,080 --> 00:08:44,600 to have a nuclear weapon and handing over all their 139 00:08:44,639 --> 00:08:47,559 assets that could make it. That's the hurdle that we 140 00:08:47,679 --> 00:08:49,840 seem to be standing in front of. And of course 141 00:08:50,039 --> 00:08:54,240 in any negotiation, it is those final yards that are 142 00:08:54,279 --> 00:08:55,480 the hardest yards. 143 00:08:56,039 --> 00:08:58,039 Speaker 1: Yeah, but I mean, this is where I think we 144 00:08:58,039 --> 00:09:00,919 should keep the economic pressure on the Strait of her 145 00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:03,879 moods block don't let them get a penny of oil 146 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:07,879 sales and let the regime collapse, have them sign a 147 00:09:07,919 --> 00:09:12,799 surrendered document and turn over their country. I don't know. 148 00:09:13,279 --> 00:09:15,919 I mean there were there's like he went through. There's 149 00:09:15,919 --> 00:09:18,039 a lot of questions, a lot of big questions about 150 00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:21,159 what about this, what about that. I think they should 151 00:09:21,240 --> 00:09:23,480 just drive them into the ground and when it all 152 00:09:23,519 --> 00:09:27,600 collapses and we will set up a cleanup. But they want, 153 00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:32,120 they actually want reparations. They want us to pay them. 154 00:09:33,120 --> 00:09:36,799 And the twenty axios today came out and said, well, 155 00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:40,639 we're talking about maybe twenty years moratorium where they can 156 00:09:40,679 --> 00:09:43,559 have a nuclear weapon in twenty years. And the President 157 00:09:43,679 --> 00:09:47,440 came out and said, no way. He's being very strict 158 00:09:47,480 --> 00:09:51,360 about it. And I'm glad, no way. We're not talking 159 00:09:51,399 --> 00:09:54,679 about five years, ten years, twenty years. We're talking about never. 160 00:09:55,399 --> 00:10:00,000 We're not going to let them ever have a nuclear weapon. 161 00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:03,559 Dark the long time negotiator for these sorts of things. 162 00:10:03,600 --> 00:10:04,519 This is what he said. 163 00:10:04,679 --> 00:10:07,000 Speaker 5: You're a lot obviously breaking, so we have to see 164 00:10:07,000 --> 00:10:10,000 it to unfold. Look, I would say this is Irands blinked, 165 00:10:10,159 --> 00:10:12,600 and I think they blinked. They can say it's about Lebanon, 166 00:10:12,639 --> 00:10:15,720 but I really think it's about the blockade on their ports. 167 00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:19,639 A classic Aron negotiating style. It's not a full blink. 168 00:10:19,639 --> 00:10:21,600 I would say the blink with one I because I'm 169 00:10:21,679 --> 00:10:24,720 meeting carefully. The statement from a boss Aarachi who's the 170 00:10:24,759 --> 00:10:26,960 fund minister, and he says the Strait will be open, 171 00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:30,720 but this is his quote on the coordinated the route 172 00:10:30,840 --> 00:10:35,759 as earlier announced by Aron's port authority. That's basically the 173 00:10:35,879 --> 00:10:39,799 route up by Iron's border that is not the international route. 174 00:10:39,840 --> 00:10:42,200 So they seem to be saying any ship can now 175 00:10:42,279 --> 00:10:45,000 go through. That's good news for a global economy. That 176 00:10:45,039 --> 00:10:47,039 takes a lot of pressure off the White House and 177 00:10:47,080 --> 00:10:49,759 then the global economic picture. But they also seem to 178 00:10:49,799 --> 00:10:51,960 be saying it's only through our route and not the 179 00:10:52,000 --> 00:10:55,279 international route. I think we should make sure the Strait 180 00:10:55,360 --> 00:10:59,320 is open open full, including that that international route. So 181 00:10:59,320 --> 00:11:01,360 that's something a lot I think over the coming of 182 00:11:01,519 --> 00:11:04,399 the coming day. On the potential parameters of the deal, 183 00:11:04,480 --> 00:11:08,080 John not totally surprising. There's always that that issue of 184 00:11:08,120 --> 00:11:10,559 the frozen funds and then how they're allocated, what they're 185 00:11:10,559 --> 00:11:13,559 allocated for. It could be for humanitarian food, medicine, it 186 00:11:13,639 --> 00:11:16,679 could be for just to transfer into Alan. This is 187 00:11:16,679 --> 00:11:20,679 always part of the negotiation, so I'm not surprised to 188 00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:23,240 see that the key issue is what happened the view 189 00:11:23,279 --> 00:11:25,759 and I thought earlier morning twotys thought part of the 190 00:11:25,799 --> 00:11:29,399 Poms granium and the enrichment program and we have to see. 191 00:11:29,480 --> 00:11:32,000 But back back up, bottom line, this is good news, 192 00:11:31,799 --> 00:11:34,799 is the good news. It's releases pressure on the global 193 00:11:34,840 --> 00:11:37,720 economic system to reuse a card that are on has 194 00:11:37,759 --> 00:11:41,720 been really been holding this labor card since the start 195 00:11:41,759 --> 00:11:43,799 of this conflict, and I think it gives a lot 196 00:11:43,879 --> 00:11:47,600 more space here for the diplomacy to all to proceed. 197 00:11:48,320 --> 00:11:52,759 Speaker 1: Very good news, but it's not complete and so don't 198 00:11:52,840 --> 00:11:57,519 jump for joy yet. Meantime, in Paris today a number 199 00:11:57,559 --> 00:12:03,840 of the European leaders got together. They literally had a 200 00:12:03,879 --> 00:12:10,039 conference where they were talking about the diplomacy and how 201 00:12:10,080 --> 00:12:14,240 we need to work on diplomacy with Iran. It was 202 00:12:14,399 --> 00:12:18,799 very stiff upper European stuff. Here is one of the 203 00:12:18,840 --> 00:12:22,480 reporters that was at the EU meeting in Paris. 204 00:12:22,240 --> 00:12:25,639 Speaker 6: President of course, and the German Chancellor. Now, the idea 205 00:12:25,799 --> 00:12:29,120 was that these were the non belligerent parties that were 206 00:12:29,200 --> 00:12:31,919 first in line for the effects of war. None of 207 00:12:31,919 --> 00:12:34,759 them had been consulted on. They got together without the 208 00:12:34,840 --> 00:12:37,440 United States or Iran in order to try and figure 209 00:12:37,440 --> 00:12:40,000 out how they could get the straight opened again, and 210 00:12:40,000 --> 00:12:42,080 what pressure they could bring to bear, and how they 211 00:12:42,080 --> 00:12:45,159 could put in place a sort of multi lash national force. 212 00:12:45,159 --> 00:12:47,200 They could do things like d mining, but only once 213 00:12:47,200 --> 00:12:50,600 the ceasefire had been struck. This is what kirs Stromer 214 00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:52,120 just had to say. 215 00:12:52,240 --> 00:12:55,200 Speaker 7: We've all agreed. There was real unity in the meeting 216 00:12:55,279 --> 00:12:57,519 that we've just had. We want to see a return 217 00:12:57,639 --> 00:13:01,679 to talks and a lasting agreement and including the reopening 218 00:13:01,799 --> 00:13:06,679 of the strait. We welcome the announcement that was made 219 00:13:06,840 --> 00:13:10,279 during our meeting, but we need to make sure that 220 00:13:10,279 --> 00:13:15,240 that is both lasting and a workable proposal, and if anything, 221 00:13:15,320 --> 00:13:17,879 it reinforces the need for the work that we've been 222 00:13:17,879 --> 00:13:22,120 doing this afternoon, because we're very clear that the mission 223 00:13:22,159 --> 00:13:26,919 that we're putting together is a defensive mission that comes 224 00:13:27,120 --> 00:13:30,919 after a cease fire. So that's why we brought the 225 00:13:30,919 --> 00:13:36,679 International Group together to indicate how we will play our part. 226 00:13:36,960 --> 00:13:39,799 And there are a number of elements. First, to deliver 227 00:13:39,879 --> 00:13:44,440 the diplomatic push for peace based on the fundamental principle 228 00:13:44,480 --> 00:13:48,120 that the Strait should be reopened immediately with no tolls 229 00:13:48,399 --> 00:13:51,759 and no restrictions, and there was absolute unity on those 230 00:13:51,799 --> 00:13:54,960 points across all of the states attending today. 231 00:13:56,360 --> 00:14:00,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, so the European leaders are sitting around ringing their hands, 232 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:06,159 holding ministers meetings and having great discussions about diplomacy. I'll 233 00:14:06,159 --> 00:14:10,759 tell you the President today on true Social said now 234 00:14:10,799 --> 00:14:13,840 that the horror moves straight situation is over. I received 235 00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:17,440 a call from NATO asking if we would need some help, 236 00:14:18,159 --> 00:14:21,000 and then in capital letters he wrote, I told them 237 00:14:21,000 --> 00:14:23,360 to stay away unless they just want to load up 238 00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:27,080 their ships with oil. They were useless when needed a 239 00:14:27,120 --> 00:14:33,279 paper Tiger President DJT. General Keith Kellogg had this reaction 240 00:14:33,480 --> 00:14:37,759 to the NATO group. Well, my take is, I think 241 00:14:37,759 --> 00:14:39,879 we knew and we need a new defense for alignment. 242 00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:42,320 You know, I think that thirty two nations in NATO 243 00:14:42,759 --> 00:14:45,159 is in wieldy, so I think we kind of have 244 00:14:45,240 --> 00:14:47,080 to go back to the drawing board. You know, it's 245 00:14:47,159 --> 00:14:49,519 going to be kind of hard to tell my brother 246 00:14:49,600 --> 00:14:51,919 in California that we're going to defend New York City 247 00:14:51,919 --> 00:14:55,320 from Albania because Albania got hit or something like that. 248 00:14:55,559 --> 00:14:57,600 And I think it's time we do that. In the 249 00:14:57,639 --> 00:15:01,720 restrictions in NATO. In the NATO Treaty Article thirteen, you 250 00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:03,840 give a year's notice that we're out of it, and 251 00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:05,399 we can either say we're out of it or we're 252 00:15:05,440 --> 00:15:07,639 going to fix it. Let's fix it. I think we 253 00:15:07,679 --> 00:15:11,799 need to read organize reset to defensive alignment. 254 00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:14,159 Speaker 8: For Europe as well. But President's right about that as well. 255 00:15:14,480 --> 00:15:16,600 Some of those nations out there have gone to have 256 00:15:16,759 --> 00:15:20,039 become very strong, like Poland, but some of those nations 257 00:15:20,159 --> 00:15:23,759 right now have just negated their responsibilities as so as 258 00:15:23,840 --> 00:15:26,080 entner NATO. It's about time we relook. 259 00:15:25,679 --> 00:15:30,240 Speaker 1: At NATO was founded in nineteen forty nine after World 260 00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:36,919 War Two, and it began with twelve founding nations. How 261 00:15:37,039 --> 00:15:41,440 we got from twelve to thirty two is there's what 262 00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:45,679 the General said, it's unwieldy. So I suspect that this 263 00:15:45,799 --> 00:15:48,639 is the beginning of the end of the NATO that 264 00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:51,519 we've known since the end of World War two. Well 265 00:15:51,559 --> 00:15:54,960 back to the announcement from Iran that they have opened 266 00:15:55,000 --> 00:15:57,960 the strait of our moves, which according to them, they have, 267 00:15:58,120 --> 00:16:05,799 but it's with conditions. And Kareem Santa Jopur, who is 268 00:16:05,799 --> 00:16:10,279 from Carnegie and studies these people backwards and forwards. He's 269 00:16:10,360 --> 00:16:12,720 not that excited about this announcement today. 270 00:16:12,879 --> 00:16:17,320 Speaker 9: President Trump obviously wants to try to end this forty 271 00:16:17,360 --> 00:16:20,240 seven year conflict with Iran in several weeks, but in 272 00:16:20,399 --> 00:16:23,039 my view, that's not going to happen. You still have 273 00:16:23,159 --> 00:16:27,000 the same regime which wants the United States as an adversary. 274 00:16:27,440 --> 00:16:31,799 A more narrow agreement on just the nuclear issue is possible, 275 00:16:31,840 --> 00:16:34,840 but there's no signs that Iran is prepared to change 276 00:16:34,879 --> 00:16:38,120 its conduct. And on the Straitor Homos, what they found 277 00:16:38,240 --> 00:16:41,039 is that that's an incredible tool of leverage for them. 278 00:16:41,440 --> 00:16:44,440 They agreed to open it now in exchange for Israel 279 00:16:44,519 --> 00:16:47,799 seesing its military operations in Lebanon. But in the future, 280 00:16:47,799 --> 00:16:51,840 of Israel resumes his military operations in Lebanon, we will 281 00:16:51,960 --> 00:16:54,080 try to stop traffic in austral Again. 282 00:16:54,320 --> 00:16:58,159 Speaker 1: I think he knows his subject very well. These people 283 00:16:58,159 --> 00:17:02,200 are not trustworthy. Don't trust any of this either. And 284 00:17:02,279 --> 00:17:06,119 as far as if this is all according to Iran, 285 00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:10,319 this is all based upon the ceasefire between Israel and 286 00:17:10,559 --> 00:17:16,400 be Root or Lebanon, then there's all kinds of people 287 00:17:16,480 --> 00:17:20,400 that could play mischief and upset that by just throwing 288 00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:22,519 the missile across that country's line. 289 00:17:22,759 --> 00:17:26,960 Speaker 9: So many saboteurs in this equation, not only Lebanese has Bela, 290 00:17:27,480 --> 00:17:32,119 the Huthis and yemen Shite militias in Iraq, and individuals 291 00:17:32,119 --> 00:17:35,079 within the Iranian Revolutionary Guards who actually want to prolong 292 00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:37,480 the war for their own internal experiences. 293 00:17:37,680 --> 00:17:41,160 Speaker 1: So he's Larry, so am I, I mean, this is good, 294 00:17:41,400 --> 00:17:45,200 but we need to do more than just trust or verify. 295 00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:48,039 I have to get over my I don't believe a 296 00:17:48,079 --> 00:17:51,160 word they say. I don't trust them. Meantime, you want 297 00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:54,400 to talk about oil and gas prices, Well it was 298 00:17:55,160 --> 00:17:58,400 right away. This happened before the market opened this morning, 299 00:17:58,519 --> 00:18:02,519 so the few were way up, and they were up. 300 00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:05,480 Now has been trading more than a thousand points to 301 00:18:05,559 --> 00:18:08,720 the good, in fact, eleven hundred points of all of them, 302 00:18:08,759 --> 00:18:10,960 and oil prices came down. I think I saw the 303 00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:15,559 lowest I saw on West Texas Intermediate was eighty one dollars. 304 00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:18,160 So we'll get the closing numbers here in just a 305 00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:23,559 few minutes. But I this is exactly what I expected. 306 00:18:23,599 --> 00:18:27,640 So eighty one dollars is not sixty eight to seventy 307 00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:31,039 two that we were having before the war started. So 308 00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:33,279 we still have a ways to go, but it did 309 00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:35,839 what you would expect. Now, the question is it's still 310 00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:38,880 going to be headline driven. Every headline that comes up 311 00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:40,920 is either going to drive the market up or drive 312 00:18:40,960 --> 00:18:47,000 it down. But right now the news is good for 313 00:18:47,480 --> 00:18:49,160 gasoline and oil prices. 314 00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:52,039 Speaker 10: Here's David Goldman, Now, this is really good news for 315 00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:54,759 the oil market. Right So we've been seeing prices over 316 00:18:54,759 --> 00:18:57,359 one hundred dollars for quite some time, so a little 317 00:18:57,359 --> 00:19:00,519 bit of relief. Now, the question is when are we 318 00:19:00,599 --> 00:19:03,559 going to see this? And I think that what you 319 00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:06,400 need to remember is that this has been going on 320 00:19:06,559 --> 00:19:09,920 for six seven weeks. So I think one of the 321 00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:13,599 questions that we have is, first of all, is this 322 00:19:13,720 --> 00:19:16,240 really it or is the strait of horm moves open 323 00:19:16,480 --> 00:19:18,839 permanently now? So that's something that we need to watch. 324 00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:22,640 But also when does production start to come back online? 325 00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:25,279 Are the tankers moving out of the strait of horror 326 00:19:25,279 --> 00:19:28,319 moves and getting to their destination on time? Is this 327 00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:32,440 going to be a situation where we're talking about weeks 328 00:19:32,519 --> 00:19:35,480 and then everything goes back to normal ish or are 329 00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:38,799 we talking about a period of months. So that's something 330 00:19:38,839 --> 00:19:40,839 that we need to watch, just in terms of turning 331 00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:43,759 back on production. Because remember, it doesn't come on like 332 00:19:43,799 --> 00:19:47,440 a light switch. This is a pretty interesting and complex 333 00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:50,240 engineering feat that needs to happen in the Middle East. 334 00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:52,640 Speaker 1: Yeah about oil coming out of the Strait of horrm 335 00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:56,440 movez I see yeah, zatas I looked at the map 336 00:19:56,640 --> 00:19:59,599 of the Persian Gulf, and you have to remember, even 337 00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:03,559 though all along the eastern shore of the Persian Gulf 338 00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:09,440 is Iran, on the western side the western beaches of 339 00:20:09,599 --> 00:20:14,359 the Strait of a Persian Gulf, you've got Bahrain, You've 340 00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:18,400 got Katar, you've got Kuwait, you've got Oman, and those 341 00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:21,359 are all countries that produce oil, and so they can 342 00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:24,559 load up their oil tankers and send them out because 343 00:20:24,599 --> 00:20:27,440 the ships would be coming from a port that is 344 00:20:27,559 --> 00:20:32,079 not Iran. So for now we're blocking the ships that 345 00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:35,480 come from an Iranian port, but not from all those 346 00:20:35,519 --> 00:20:38,319 other countries that are oil producing as well. Back to 347 00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:41,319 David Goldman, he talks about, you know, the supply of 348 00:20:41,319 --> 00:20:43,759 oil that's been the big concerns, the fact that Iran 349 00:20:44,839 --> 00:20:49,119 was not sending their oil out, they were blocking everybody 350 00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:53,039 except for their own ships. Well, the demand for oil 351 00:20:53,359 --> 00:20:56,759 around the world because of the high prices. What's the 352 00:20:56,799 --> 00:21:02,000 best way to lower high prices. The answer is high 353 00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:06,720 prices because people start cutting back on four dollars five 354 00:21:06,799 --> 00:21:12,640 dollars gas countries and factories, and everybody starts cutting back 355 00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:16,200 on high oil prices, and so it's led to a 356 00:21:16,319 --> 00:21:21,799 drop in demand. Back to Goldman, you'll talk about this such. 357 00:21:21,599 --> 00:21:25,480 Speaker 10: An important question, right, So this is the paper price 358 00:21:25,519 --> 00:21:28,839 of oil. This is the market saying we think that 359 00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:31,960 if we're going to buy a contract for a future 360 00:21:32,039 --> 00:21:34,599 delivery of oil, that's about what we want to pay 361 00:21:34,599 --> 00:21:37,400 for it, right. But it's more complex than that, because 362 00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:39,720 then if you own that contract, right, you need to 363 00:21:39,759 --> 00:21:42,640 actually get the wet barrel of oil and then you 364 00:21:42,799 --> 00:21:46,200 sell that to someone else. You're not drinking this oil. 365 00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:49,359 This is something that you need to offload, right. And 366 00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:53,960 the price of that oil has been significantly higher than 367 00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:57,400 this because there was demand for the oil. But something 368 00:21:57,519 --> 00:22:01,200 really interesting happened over the past few days. That price, 369 00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:04,200 which was like one hundred and forty something dollars a barrel, 370 00:22:04,279 --> 00:22:07,880 fell to just over one hundred dollars a barrel. Why 371 00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:11,519 did it do that, And that's because demand for oil 372 00:22:11,599 --> 00:22:16,000 has started to fall the problem with oil prices as 373 00:22:16,079 --> 00:22:18,359 high as they were for as long as they were 374 00:22:18,759 --> 00:22:21,519 means that there are people who are saying, forget it, 375 00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:23,799 I'm not going to go on that trip, I'm not 376 00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:26,319 going to fill my car anymore, I'm going to make 377 00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:31,000 permanent changes to my lifestyle, or businesses saying we're going 378 00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:34,839 to make big changes to how we're operating. And so 379 00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:39,880 it could take a while for that to recover. And 380 00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:43,680 that's factored into why oil prices are falling too, because 381 00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:48,480 the demand side is weaker as well as the supply side. 382 00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:51,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, that makes sense, it makes total sense. High prices, well, 383 00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:54,960 people will buy less of whatever that product is. There's 384 00:22:55,000 --> 00:23:00,000 also a problem with jet fuel, and in some parts, 385 00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:04,640 especially in Asia, but also in Europe, airlines are cutting. 386 00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:08,839 United Airlines is cutting five percent of their flights. They have, 387 00:23:09,039 --> 00:23:11,880 along with most of the other major carriers, have increased 388 00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:15,039 their bag fees a lot to try to make up 389 00:23:15,079 --> 00:23:19,279 some of the losses. So it is airlines are having 390 00:23:19,319 --> 00:23:23,559 a very very tough time. Here's back to David Goldman 391 00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:25,799 again on the jet fuel. 392 00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:29,960 Speaker 10: And so we haven't seen eighty dollars a barrel oil 393 00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:33,599 for weeks and weeks on end, and so this could 394 00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:36,680 be really good news if this holds. And I think 395 00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:39,519 the point that Alex was making earlier is really really 396 00:23:39,559 --> 00:23:43,240 important that nothing has changed yet, right, Right, oil hasn't 397 00:23:43,279 --> 00:23:45,720 gotten out of the street yet. It just opened, and 398 00:23:45,799 --> 00:23:49,039 so a lot is left to be seen about what 399 00:23:49,319 --> 00:23:52,960 actually happens. If the president says that Iranian oil isn't 400 00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:54,880 going to get out, well, okay, so how does that 401 00:23:55,079 --> 00:23:58,759 work exactly? And you know that's a military effort. We 402 00:23:58,839 --> 00:24:02,559 still have four versus in place to make sure that 403 00:24:02,559 --> 00:24:07,079 that blockade holds. And so this is a sentiment reaction. 404 00:24:07,559 --> 00:24:10,240 Is this is folks saying we think that this is 405 00:24:10,279 --> 00:24:12,160 what's going to happen, but we need to see it 406 00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:14,720 actually moving out. This is not turning on a light switch. 407 00:24:14,839 --> 00:24:15,039 Speaker 1: Right. 408 00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:19,000 Speaker 10: So the reason why oil has been at a stand 409 00:24:19,079 --> 00:24:21,279 still is because the straight of horror moves has been closed. Okay, 410 00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:24,160 so now if that's open, those tankers can start to 411 00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:26,200 move out. Now you got to move tankers in to 412 00:24:26,279 --> 00:24:29,359 collect the oil, but there's been no place to put it. 413 00:24:29,640 --> 00:24:34,160 So turning on those production facilities is a small engineering 414 00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:38,160 feet that takes weeks to do. So, yeah, they can 415 00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:40,839 start to produce oil again. Then it's got to get 416 00:24:40,839 --> 00:24:42,759 on the tankers, and then they need to get out, 417 00:24:42,799 --> 00:24:44,960 and then they need to go and deliver their oil, 418 00:24:45,279 --> 00:24:48,319 and they move as slow as oil tankers, and so 419 00:24:48,759 --> 00:24:50,799 it takes a long time for that to get to 420 00:24:50,920 --> 00:24:55,079 its destination. So this is a sentiment reaction. This is 421 00:24:55,759 --> 00:24:58,799 investors saying, we feel good about this, but notice where 422 00:24:58,839 --> 00:25:01,400 it's not. It's not back down to sixty dollars, which 423 00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:03,799 is where we were before. Exactly. It's going to take 424 00:25:03,799 --> 00:25:04,839 a while for it to get back. 425 00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:07,440 Speaker 1: So let's get down to the price at the pump, 426 00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:10,240 and again it was it's been coming down. Yesterday we 427 00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:13,960 were talking about it being down eight cents, and today 428 00:25:15,279 --> 00:25:18,720 is down even further. According to Tripla, the average price 429 00:25:18,799 --> 00:25:22,319 four to seven, which is two stands less than yesterday. 430 00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:26,559 For you truckers, five dollars and fifty nine cents is 431 00:25:26,599 --> 00:25:29,200 the average on your price. 432 00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:32,160 Speaker 10: So gas prices don't fall like a rock, they fall 433 00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:35,119 like a feather, okay, And the reason is twofold. First 434 00:25:35,119 --> 00:25:37,400 of all, all that gas, all that stuff that we 435 00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:41,359 were just talking about, that needs to happen first before 436 00:25:41,839 --> 00:25:45,720 the refineries get the gas to refine, and then they 437 00:25:45,759 --> 00:25:47,480 ship it off to warehouses and then it goes on 438 00:25:47,519 --> 00:25:49,880 a tanker and then it goes sheer gas station. They 439 00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:53,200 are going to take some time to get those prices down. 440 00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:55,880 And the other thing is that if you're a gas station, 441 00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:58,799 you make very little profit, so you're not in a 442 00:25:59,079 --> 00:26:02,119 rush to go from four dollars to three dollars. That's 443 00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:03,440 why it's going to take a little while. 444 00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:06,359 Speaker 1: The other simple explanation is if you've seen those big 445 00:26:07,039 --> 00:26:11,200 tankers pull up to a gas station to deliver the gas, Well, 446 00:26:11,319 --> 00:26:13,559 if you're a gas station owner and you got a 447 00:26:13,599 --> 00:26:17,880 delivery last week, you paid a lot more than four 448 00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:21,839 to seven for your gas. You paid a lot more, 449 00:26:22,519 --> 00:26:26,559 So you've got to You can't lower your price immediately. 450 00:26:26,559 --> 00:26:28,400 You've got to wait for all that gas in your 451 00:26:28,519 --> 00:26:30,839 tanks for the people to come and buy it, and 452 00:26:30,839 --> 00:26:32,319 they're going to have to buy it at a price 453 00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:37,559 higher than the current spot market price. Meantime, I mentioned airlines, 454 00:26:37,599 --> 00:26:39,799 and the airlines are raising their prices, and they're raising 455 00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:42,440 their tickets, and they're raising their baggage fees, and they're 456 00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:46,400 cutting flights and they're doing everything they can. Spirit Airlines, 457 00:26:46,519 --> 00:26:49,559 which was in bankruptcy once came back out there in 458 00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:53,480 bankruptcy again. They have been warning that they may be 459 00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:56,720 out of business within the next couple of days. I mean, 460 00:26:57,000 --> 00:27:00,799 not fine at all, shutting down, you know, the yellow 461 00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:05,559 airplane Spirit. And one of the one of the things 462 00:27:05,599 --> 00:27:08,960 about this during the Biden administration, there was a woman 463 00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:13,720 who was running mergers and acquisitions and she and fought 464 00:27:13,839 --> 00:27:18,720 tooth and nail for Jet Blue to buy Spirit Airlines. 465 00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:22,279 Listen to what one of the anchors at CNBC said 466 00:27:22,319 --> 00:27:25,720 this morning about that ruling and how it put a 467 00:27:26,079 --> 00:27:28,839 death knell on Spirit too. 468 00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:30,680 Speaker 10: Not about Spirit. 469 00:27:30,799 --> 00:27:32,960 Speaker 3: That's good, you are, yeah, I know that it means 470 00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:34,839 were born. 471 00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:36,680 Speaker 10: I'm not trying to fly spear. But for people who 472 00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:38,759 want a low cost budget option, are they in a 473 00:27:38,759 --> 00:27:41,079 better position now than they were a few years ago? 474 00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:45,960 Speaker 11: Take it up with your you know, the Democratic administration 475 00:27:46,079 --> 00:27:47,440 she loved so much, coming. 476 00:27:47,279 --> 00:27:49,920 Speaker 1: Up, Joe Kurdin, what that. Take it up with the 477 00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:53,799 Democratic administration you love so much. Yeah. The Biden administration 478 00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:57,480 blocked the purchase of Spirit by Jet Blue, and everybody said, 479 00:27:57,519 --> 00:28:01,200 if you don't allow this, Jet Biden, excuse me, Spirit 480 00:28:01,279 --> 00:28:04,079 is going to go bankrupt, and they did, and now 481 00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:06,440 the customers who love them so much are not going 482 00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:08,720 to have them at all or they would have had 483 00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:11,440 a low cost option if the judge had approved that. 484 00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:18,039 Just one of my pet peeves. Let's talk Israel. What 485 00:28:18,799 --> 00:28:22,880 a major change is going on with the Americans view 486 00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:29,839 of Israel. Back in well, the US Senate, for example, 487 00:28:30,319 --> 00:28:34,359 there are fifteen Democrats a year ago who were all 488 00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:40,720 for stopping funding military defensive equipment for Israel, in other words, 489 00:28:40,799 --> 00:28:44,720 iron dome and things like that. Fifteen of them. Then 490 00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:48,440 late last summer, twenty seven Democrats in the Senate were 491 00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:52,160 opposed to giving Israel any money. Now it's up to 492 00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:56,400 forty of the Democrats. Forty of the forty what is it, 493 00:28:56,559 --> 00:29:01,480 forty seven are opposed to giving Israel any kind of 494 00:29:01,519 --> 00:29:06,440 money for defensive equipment. Two people go over this. The 495 00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:12,160 political guy David Slaine talks about how Israel, because of 496 00:29:12,599 --> 00:29:15,920 the war in Gaza and now with what's going on 497 00:29:16,039 --> 00:29:18,960 in Iran, there's a lot of Americans that are turning 498 00:29:19,039 --> 00:29:21,039 a cold shoulder to our friends in Israel. 499 00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:25,119 Speaker 12: I think a year ago, on a similar measure proposed 500 00:29:25,119 --> 00:29:29,400 by Bernie Sanders, it was like fifteen Democrats that supported it. 501 00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:31,920 Then in the summer there was another similar proposal. It 502 00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:34,359 got up to twenty five twenty seven Democrats and now 503 00:29:34,519 --> 00:29:36,119 forty Senate Democrats. 504 00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:38,799 Speaker 3: I think in one year you've seen a dramatic uptic. 505 00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:40,480 Speaker 12: I think it mirrors what's going on in the polls 506 00:29:40,519 --> 00:29:44,440 inside the Democratic Party. Netanya, Who's Israel is becoming more 507 00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:47,960 and more unpopular. Democrats, especially in America, have a more 508 00:29:48,039 --> 00:29:51,880 unfavorable view of Israel, and so you're seeing a lot 509 00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:54,839 more Democratic senators sort of responding to that and joining 510 00:29:54,839 --> 00:29:59,200 this opposition to selling offensive weapons to Israel for the classic. 511 00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:01,640 Speaker 1: Okay, so Democrats turning their back on Israel. What about 512 00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:03,000 the Republicans in the Senate. 513 00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:06,279 Speaker 12: Yes, although you're starting to see fractures there as well. 514 00:30:06,359 --> 00:30:07,559 Speaker 3: I mean there are concerns. 515 00:30:07,599 --> 00:30:09,759 Speaker 12: I don't think it's not nearly as widespread it is 516 00:30:09,799 --> 00:30:11,920 on the Democratic side, but on the Republican side of 517 00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:15,440 the equation, you're also seeing not a total unified support 518 00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:16,680 of Israel the way that you used to. 519 00:30:16,960 --> 00:30:20,759 Speaker 1: So Harry Enton, who does the data collection of things, 520 00:30:21,799 --> 00:30:27,720 points out how severe the attitude is against Israel in 521 00:30:27,759 --> 00:30:28,440 this country. 522 00:30:28,559 --> 00:30:31,039 Speaker 11: Okay, so you see, I'll say, going up and there's 523 00:30:31,039 --> 00:30:34,440 all this discussion, Oh there's this divide on Israel within 524 00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:35,559 the Democratic Party. 525 00:30:35,839 --> 00:30:38,759 Speaker 3: I'd make the argument there was a divide four years ago. 526 00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:41,279 Speaker 11: I'm not quite sure there's a divide anymore, because just 527 00:30:41,319 --> 00:30:44,240 take a look here, okay, democrats net favorability of Israel 528 00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:46,960 not liberal, those who are modern conservative versus those who 529 00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:49,160 are liberal. You go back to twenty twenty two, those 530 00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:51,519 who are not liberal slightly more likely to hold a 531 00:30:51,559 --> 00:30:54,519 net favorable view of Israel than not Liberals were against 532 00:30:54,519 --> 00:30:56,799 Israel by that point minus twenty six oneths come out 533 00:30:56,799 --> 00:30:59,319 over this side of the screen. That divide is simply 534 00:30:59,359 --> 00:31:03,240 put God, there is no divide within the Democratic Party 535 00:31:03,279 --> 00:31:05,839 when it comes to views towards Israel. The net favorable 536 00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:08,200 rating amongst those who are modern conservative not liberal. Look 537 00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:11,359 at this, minus fifty five points. That's a shift of 538 00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:14,519 fifty eight points in just four years time. Those who 539 00:31:14,559 --> 00:31:17,559 are liberal, it's nearly a fifty point shift minus seventy 540 00:31:17,559 --> 00:31:18,200 four points. 541 00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:19,359 Speaker 3: But now moderates and. 542 00:31:19,319 --> 00:31:22,920 Speaker 11: Conservatives as well as liberals, those within the Democratic electorate 543 00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:25,559 are united on their views towards Israel. 544 00:31:25,839 --> 00:31:27,640 Speaker 3: It is unfavorable at this point. 545 00:31:27,799 --> 00:31:30,319 Speaker 1: No, it's really shifted a lot, and it has to 546 00:31:30,359 --> 00:31:32,640 be because of the war in Gauza and now the 547 00:31:32,680 --> 00:31:35,279 war in Iran. Back to Harry h factor. 548 00:31:35,519 --> 00:31:38,359 Speaker 11: Okay, age was another divide that we saw, but that 549 00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:41,319 age divide is breaking down. Look at this Democrats net 550 00:31:41,319 --> 00:31:44,559 favorability towards Israel h fifty plus back in twenty twenty 551 00:31:44,599 --> 00:31:46,799 two was plus ten points. Those under the age of 552 00:31:46,839 --> 00:31:49,759 fifty age eighteen to forty nine minus twenty five points. 553 00:31:49,839 --> 00:31:51,000 Speaker 3: Come over to this side of the screen. 554 00:31:51,119 --> 00:31:54,559 Speaker 11: Again, these are just dramatic, dramatic shifts. Look at this 555 00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:59,160 age fifty plus now minus fifty four points. That's a 556 00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:01,279 shift of what Johnny, But that's a shift of sixty 557 00:32:01,359 --> 00:32:04,240 forty four points, sixty four points in the negative direction 558 00:32:04,559 --> 00:32:07,920 age underage fifty. It's a shift, and normally this would 559 00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:09,920 be a huge shift, but it's forty five points as 560 00:32:09,920 --> 00:32:12,640 compared to what sixty four points. But the bottom line 561 00:32:12,680 --> 00:32:15,440 is this the age divide that there was on Israel 562 00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:19,640 within the Democratic Party that has gone again basically uniformly 563 00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:23,880 negative views towards Israel among Democrats, and that in my mind, 564 00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:26,359 is playing out in Michigan right now as LSI Edg's 565 00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:27,559 chances are going up. 566 00:32:28,039 --> 00:32:31,720 Speaker 1: It's very dramatic. And speaking of things changes, he was 567 00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:35,240 talking about Muslim candidate for the Cenate out of Michigan, 568 00:32:35,640 --> 00:32:38,119 and his numbers are going up rather rapidly. He's still 569 00:32:38,119 --> 00:32:42,240 in second place. And last night in New Jersey they 570 00:32:42,359 --> 00:32:47,680 elected a woman who is well, she's so far left. 571 00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:51,359 She was backed by Bernie and AOC. Her name is 572 00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:57,200 Analisja Mahia, and she ran on a platform that emphasized 573 00:32:57,319 --> 00:33:04,440 Medicare for all, free college, canceling all student debt, twenty 574 00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:09,079 five dollars minimum wage, the first forty thousand dollars that 575 00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:15,000 you make would be tax free, abolish ice, and hold 576 00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:19,440 President Trump and his administration accountable. Bernie and AOC backed 577 00:33:20,119 --> 00:33:23,599 and this is New Jersey, a fairly nice, affluent area 578 00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:28,440 of New Jersey. She won by twenty points, so she 579 00:33:28,559 --> 00:33:31,759 took over the seat that was previously held by the 580 00:33:31,759 --> 00:33:35,599 now governor of New Jersey. So the move on the 581 00:33:35,640 --> 00:33:38,839 Democratic Party is clearly, clearly, clearly to the left. New 582 00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:42,920 Jersey's very Democrat, very blue. But man, this woman is 583 00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:48,480 far far left and she won handling. So let's get 584 00:33:48,519 --> 00:33:51,720 to the numbers for Wall Street because with this news 585 00:33:51,799 --> 00:33:55,200 about the Iran is saying that the strait of our 586 00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:59,160 moves is open before the market's open, and the futures 587 00:33:59,160 --> 00:34:02,400 are way up and We spent most of the trading 588 00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:07,839 session with the Dow Jones industrials at better than eleven 589 00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:11,320 hundred points to the good a little bit of selling 590 00:34:11,440 --> 00:34:13,880 in the final couple of hours. The Dow finished up 591 00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:17,920 eight hundred and sixty eight to forty nine thousand and 592 00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:20,960 four to forty seven, so not quite a record. The 593 00:34:21,119 --> 00:34:25,320 SMP new record up eighty four, the NASDAC new record 594 00:34:25,400 --> 00:34:29,199 up three hundred and sixty five, gold up forty four 595 00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:33,239 dollars to four thousand and eight fifty two, and oil 596 00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:37,360 prices did come down, they were turning around eighty one. 597 00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:41,559 They finished down nine dollars for the day at eighty 598 00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:44,679 five dollars and some change for one barrel of oil. 599 00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:50,079 So that's it for today. Have yourself an absolutely sensational weekend. 600 00:34:50,199 --> 00:34:52,920 We'll be back on Monday. I hope to see you then.