Speaker 1: There's no recession, right B, because the economy is strong.
But you know, when you look at you know, we
added fifty or half a percent fifty two basis points
at the minimum to the GDP numbers to get them
to where they were, and that was all government spending.
Speaker 2: You were listening to Carrie Lutz's Financial Survival Network, where
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Speaker 3: Welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial Survival Network.
I'm your host Ferry Lutz and noted economic expert at
sidel Is with us ED.
Speaker 4: We got to talk.
Speaker 3: About these GDP numbers. The economy is doing so great.
Why is everyone so miserable? Well, yeah, yeah, you know
the the reports are.
Speaker 1: You know, there's no recession, right B, because the economy
is strong.
Speaker 4: But you know when you look at, you know.
Speaker 1: We added fifty or half a percent of fifty two
basis points at the minimum to the GDP numbers to
get them to where they were, and that was all
government spending. You know, that's inflationary, and you know we're
talking about it right before we started. I just wanted
to double check the numbers. Did you know so far
this year fiscal year twenty twenty four, that we have
already spent six point seventy five trillion dollars already? Really well,
and I would not be shocked if our debt hits
thirty six trillion on election day?
Speaker 4: Were there about question for you? Yeah, hey, right before it.
Speaker 3: Trump's proposing elimination of the federal income tax, and I
want to take my champagne bottle out now and replacement
with some type of you said tariff, but I think
of that would also right.
Speaker 4: He required there is this doable you know what.
Speaker 1: I actually when he first said it, I was like, yeah, boy,
that's that's kind of out there. And and then I remembered,
you know, something that our laugher said, uh, you know,
earlier in the year.
Speaker 4: So I started looking at it, and it really is.
Speaker 1: It really is doable, and and you know, the the
VAT or consumption tax, but yeah, I think it really
really is.
Speaker 4: You know, some of the other things that he was talking.
Speaker 1: About, which is doing away with taxes on social Security.
You know, they were talking about adding to the national debt.
But but you know, it's it's always the opposite of
of what you really think because you know, when you
look at the math behind a statement like that and
you just go back to, you know, the the current
tax plan that we're in right now that goes away
sets you know, the the December thirty first is twenty
twenty five. You know, we are taking in more tax
revenues now under the current tax code, which was you know,
under the Trump administration than in the history of the
United States. The problem is is that we're spending more.
I think in August we talked about this. Last time,
we took in like four hundred and over four hundred
billion dollars in one month, and we spent four over
you know, four hundred and eighty billion UH deficit. We
overspent you know, four hundred and eighty billion. So you know,
when when you look at these tax reducing strategies, you know,
can we add more tax revenue? And I think the
answer is is yes, absolutely, because when you look at
he also wants to reduce the the UH business tax,
you know from you know, the current twenty one down
to fifteen percent. And I think that's also going to
have a very positive impact on tax revenues. So how
is that going to have a positive twist on tax
revenue as well? Now more people from a consumption standpoint,
they're going to be able to live a higher standard
of living. You know, they're going to be able to
to spend more, which is going to create more tax revenues,
you know, over over the long haul.
Speaker 4: You know, especially with the tariffs.
Speaker 1: You know, we if companies are having to spend one
hundred and two hundred percent I'm using Trump's words more
just to bring their their their their goods and services
into the US, what are they going to do. They're
going to open up factories here in the US, which
is going to increase the the the revenue base. And
that's how he's going to accomplish that. So, you know,
I it's very ingenious. You really have to think outside
of the box. But once you do the math, I
think it's a very doable deal.
Speaker 3: So what about the uh, no taxes on tips? I mean,
is that just a pandering vote buying type thing or uh,
you know, can you.
Speaker 4: Really do that fairly?
Speaker 3: Because it is income, although you can make the argument
that it's a gift.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know what you know, in the service industry,
it's so my my my middle son is.
Speaker 4: A server at a at a higher end restaurant.
Speaker 1: And you know, the the tips, so he's not even
making minimum wage. And you know the it's those that
are in that service industry. It's the difference between if
you're not having to pay taxes on those tips. It's
the difference between making ends meet, uh and and you
know and not having to get a second job. So
I think it really is from a quality of life standpoint,
it's going to be life changing for you know, the
working class American for sure.
Speaker 4: And yeah, I mean it's really not fair.
Speaker 3: But there are a highly paid to the waiters and
waitresses and weight staff at fine rest you know they're
six figures yes, And same with you know in Vegas, uh,
one of the best paid jobs in this valet parking
car and the made right without a doubt.
Speaker 1: And and you know, think about it like this, Garriy
is that we're moving away from cashlest society. So you know,
those tips, everything's going to be you know, electronic, whether
it's through credit cards or you know, they're pushing through
the c B d C Central Bank digital currency sure
that they're gonna be able to track it, you know,
and if you don't have to pay taxes on on
those electronic transfers, you know, it is you know, it's
it's going to add a lot to uh to the economy.
And you're right, you know, the the the the restaurant chain,
if you will, they're all high end restaurants that my
my son works at. He goes to college too. But
you know, everyone in there, you know, it's it's you know,
mid six figures, I mean there in it, but they
definitely earn it for sure.
Speaker 3: So yeah, fascinating, fascinating. So I just you know, really
interest me the way this happens. Policy emerges because you know,
you don't start with a clean slate, so you got
to work with what's there. But really, in so many
areas of what the government does, we need to throw
out virtually everything it does and start the thing over
again because it's so messed up and it's so corrupted.
And yep, this really is a change election. You know,
not talking about politics, but about policy. Policy is far
more important than politics. Politics just gets people at each
other's throats. Policy, you actually work together to solve problems,
something we've seemingly been unable to do in this country
for you know, twenty years or more.
Speaker 1: You know, what's that old thing if if you're not
part of the solution, you're part of the problem. And
I you know, I elon Musk what he did with
with Twitter now X, you know, in cutting the fat,
you know, looking at you know what what they're looking
you know, to trimming the fat for you know, government employees.
And you know, probably a little tongue in cheek when
he said, you know, hey, we're gonna give two years
worth of severance so that that way they can figure
out what they want to do next. But we're overspending
so much. You know, the a lot of the jobs
that we've added this year, just like last year. I mean,
their their government federal government jobs, and that is nothing
but inflationary. You know, I heard that there's it's over
fifty percent of the employees in DC are still working
from home. They're they're not even in this So you know,
are they really needed and necessary?
Speaker 4: You know?
Speaker 1: And and I'm asking because I you know, honestly, I
don't know. And you're coming on policy versus politics. You know,
that's that's a big deal.
Speaker 3: There.
Speaker 1: There was an article that came out when you know,
the mid sized businesses and obviously the Fortune five hundred,
you know, CEOs were asked this question, what would you
rather see? Would you rather see lower taxes or less regulation?
Do you know what over ninety percent responded was less regulation? Yeah,
because you know all of these regulations that it's it's
business prevention. Now, look, I believe me. I'm big on
the environment. I'm an outdoorsman. You know, I don't want
to see water bottles and trash everywhere I go. But
you know, when the EPA turns a puddle into a
lake or a pond and you can't even do it
on your right up party, you know that becomes successive
so complete madness.
Speaker 3: Yeah all right, Well, so once the election is over,
silly season, where do you see the market heading? The
market seems to be pricing in uh, a Trump victory
in my opinion.
Speaker 4: Without a doubt, without a doubt.
Speaker 1: You know, I we're we're seeing a couple of things,
you know, we're we're seeing these you know, Trump trades
that are being placed, you know, value companies, those companies
with strong balance sheets. And you know what's been very
ironic is, you know, even as companies are coming out,
you know, beating expectations on the street, as their earnings
have come out, you know, those companies have remained very flat.
But you know, we're already starting to see movement in healthcare,
We're already starting to see movement in energy. And again,
I think the markets are pricing in, you know, a
Trump victory. But one of the other things that the
markets are pricing in, especially the bond markets, is that
even though the Feds lowered rates fifty basis points and
I think they're probably gonna lurma again another you know,
twenty five BIPs in a couple of weeks.
Speaker 4: Don't say I agree with it. I understand why they're
doing it.
Speaker 1: The bond market is like, yeah, inflation isn't going away
anytime soon, and so yields are going higher. So you know,
I think that there's you know a little push pull
going on in the markets right now, and I think
everyone's kind of anxious to see what's going to happen.
You know, a week from today, the outcome of the election. Yeah, well,
well no, a week from today, that's for sure, all right.
I appreciate you coming on sharing your opinions on things.
Tell us again where we find you, how we connect
with you. Yeah, you can find us on the interwebs
at eg SI financial dot com.
Speaker 3: All right, and the link is in the shows this
interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. While you're there,
please sign up for Breed newsletter like forty thousand other
subscribers have done. And if you got any questions, shoot
me an email Heyl Atcarrie LUTs dot com. Ed always
a pleasure, be well, talk to you after the election.
Speaker 4: Absolutely, Thank you very much.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to carry Letz's Financial Survival Network your
solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to
Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,