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Speaker 1: Welcome to another Chicks on the Right podcast episode where

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we talked to our friend and sponsor of the show,

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Zach Abraham from Bulwark Capital Management, and we are going

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to talk to you today Zach and your Bora Bora

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get Away Bungalow.

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Speaker 2: Yes, yes, twenty twenty years of marriage.

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Speaker 3: Twenty years of marriage, that's yeah, that was.

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Speaker 2: The price of admissions.

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Speaker 4: So I feel like this it's one of those congratulations

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or like the best wishes or like good jobs surviving.

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Speaker 2: Like all those messages should go to my wife.

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Speaker 3: You know what I mean to celebrate it's fantastic.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, something for me to celebrate, for sure, something that

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she's probably you know, with her, it's probably more like

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an observance, right, Like it's like climbing up.

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Speaker 2: A mount or she's just like, yeah, another year with

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this guy, right like tennants.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so I got the better I got the better

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end of this deal for sure. Love it.

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Speaker 1: Well, congratulations and I'm sorry that we're I'm sorry that

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you're doing this on vacation, but you are.

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Speaker 3: You're going to do the things.

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Speaker 1: Because you are an entrepreneur, and that is what entrepreneurs do.

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Speaker 3: We do the things on vacation. That's for sure. That's right, Yeah,

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that's right.

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Speaker 4: You got Today we're.

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Speaker 1: Going to talk about these tariffs that have kicked in

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this week. And interestingly, you know, at the beginning of

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the week, we were seeing all this doom and gloom.

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The market tanked, like stocks are down, everybody's freaking out,

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and then there's this sort of report I guess for

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lack of a better word, from the International Monetary Fund,

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who says.

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Speaker 3: This is gonna be fine.

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Speaker 4: I mean, yeah, there's.

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Speaker 1: Gonna be some tariffs, but like, we're not going to

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have a recession, it's going to be fine. What do

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you make of their prediction?

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Speaker 4: Okay, So so first of all, and I want people

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I don't say this. I get we actually did a

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whole show, It hit a whole show on all of

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the stuff that we've gotten wrong. Right, So I am

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not one of these guys that are going to sit

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there all the time be like, oh, I got all right,

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I got it right. The reason I point this out, though,

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is that this is a much easier situation the handicap

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than most people think. You know, all along, I've been

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telling you guys, okay, watch Gold's probably going to go

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up a lot you're going to see continued dollar weakness,

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you're going to see continued economic slowdown, and all these

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things have just been happening, right And the reason why

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is because this situation is, like I said, it's very

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easy to handicap.

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Speaker 2: There are a lot of moving parts.

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Speaker 4: The longer the tariffs remain in place, the more economic

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damage they will be felt. For if the tariffs remain

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in place for a period of like two to three.

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Speaker 2: Weeks, the economic damage will be zero, okay.

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Speaker 4: And the reason for it is is that you recently

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saw a report that had mixed messages in it. It

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was the it was the Dallas Manufacturing Survey that came out,

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and what you saw was a shockingly, was kind of

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one of those economic reports where if you were a bearer,

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you found something in that report that you could say, look, oh,

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things aren't going well, and if you're a bull, you

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could find things that were going well.

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Speaker 2: Well.

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Speaker 4: The things that we're quote unquote going well was a

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really big surge endurable, durable consumer goods. Okay, so like dishwashers, refrigerators,

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things like that. Right, Well, again, that's exactly what you'd

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expect to see before a tariff for people are gonna

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front run these things. Right, So if they're gonna need

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if we need x amount of whatever widget right from

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Malaysia or whatever, and we know the tariffs are going

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on in thirty days, we're gonna order as many of

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those as we can prior, just in case.

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Speaker 2: So it's gonna you're gonna.

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Speaker 4: See this what looks like, oh wait a second, economic

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activities picking up, Well, that's just people.

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Speaker 2: Front running the tariffs.

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Speaker 4: My point in bringing that up is if this is

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something that resolves itself pretty quickly, you just go back

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to business and it's no big deal.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 2: It's not like it leaves a scar. It doesn't.

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Speaker 4: It also doesn't permanently increase prices, right, every it's like,

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oh it's gonna start in inflation. That's not inflation, right.

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That is a tariff is a one time price adjustment.

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Speaker 2: Right. It doesn't keep spinning out of control.

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Speaker 4: Right. We don't come back six months later and go,

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oh my god, the twenty percent tariffs became sixty Right,

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that's not the way it works. So now, well, does

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it to inflationary pressure and an inflationary environment? Yeah, but

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it's not you know, the minute the tariffs are taken away,

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it's gone, right. So I do think the IMF, shockingly

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here is giving a pretty sober outlook, which is if

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the tariffs, the tariffs are all about duration, right. The

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longer they stay on, the more damage they cause the law.

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If it's a short period of time, the damage is zero.

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Speaker 2: Right. So the other thing is is that.

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Speaker 4: The amount of stupid takes I'm seeing about this is

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just you know, I keep seeing people the Trump administration

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doesn't even know what they're doing. They don't have a plan.

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They're just throwing darts at the wall, and you look

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at them and go, hey, guys. Since twenty fifteen, the

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guy has been saying he wants to reshore manufacturing, right, Okay,

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Like to say this isn't a plan is the dumbest

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thing I've heard.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 4: If you want to talk about the efficacy of the

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plan or the merits of the plan, okay, but the

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strategy is very clear, which is, hey, we are willing

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to endure some economic pain to ensure a third of

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our populace doesn't die poor, unaffected and addicted to opiates, right,

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which I think is a pretty good cause. And I

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think enduring some tariffs, you know, like and it's just

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this this you know, we've talked about it before. It's

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just reinjecting this idea of adult rationale, which is hey,

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to get good things accomplished.

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Speaker 2: There will be costs, right, there will be some costs. Yeah.

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Speaker 3: It's like from a personal like a personal finance perspective,

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like people obviously they're gonna be people personally who are

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freaking out like, oh my god, you know this and

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my stocks and that, my portfolio, this and that. What

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do you say to those people? Just write it out

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like calm down, chill or what Like, what would you say?

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Speaker 4: No, no, if you have that portfolio, if you're feeling

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that right now, you have an irresponsibly constructed portfolio.

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Speaker 2: Period.

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Speaker 4: Our clients throw up three to five percent on the

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ear doing just fine, okay, why because they don't have

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a bunch of idiotic nonsense in their portfolio. Love looks

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like somebody in eighth grade built it, okay, right, and

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everybody's like, what's wrong with the market. Nothing. The market

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is getting better by the day. Literally, the prices are

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floating back to intrinsic value. Right, Like people always see

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stuff like this and they go it's horror, and you go, no,

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what was happening was ridiculous. Yeah, right, this you want

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a marketplace where things are trading at values that are realistic,

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right right, Like that's that is keen, that's.

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Speaker 2: What a market is for. And you know, it's one

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of those things.

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Speaker 4: I think you're in a process right now where there's

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a lot of people there's an old saying on Wall Street,

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which is, don't confuse brains with a bull market. And

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there's a lot of people out there that have been

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really bathing in a bull market for a long time,

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and they've confused it with brains and it's just not

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And so the market actually isn't good. Like I said,

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we're we're not doing anything crazy. We're evident and I

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start to the year, we just don't own stupid stuff.

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Speaker 2: So if you're feeling that pinch, you own a bunch

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of stupid stuff. So what do you like that? That's

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what I would say.

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Speaker 1: I love with the tariffs, you know, with that unpredictability

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where you're saying it's really about the length of time

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that they last. Do you have any I mean, I

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know you're I'm not asking you to get into Trump's

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brain because that's probably a really scary place to be.

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Speaker 2: But what what do you think?

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Speaker 1: How long do you think it's going to last? Does

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it just depend on how these other countries react and

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whether they come to the table and say, okay, okay, okay,

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we get it, we want to let's let's let's put

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all this to an end, or do you think that

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this is going to be a long protracted tariff run.

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Speaker 2: So so here's the way that I think that this

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is going to bake out. And I have zero confidence

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that this is really the case.

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Speaker 4: But I think that they're first of all, when anybody

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comes out in opposition or with some bluster to push

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back against Trump, everything they are saying is complete nonsense. Okay,

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they know it, we know it. Meaning look, you can

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sit there and try to act strong and stick your

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chest out and all that kind of stuff. If we

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don't have access to your market, it means nothing to us.

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Speaker 2: If you don't have access to ours, you're in.

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Speaker 4: A depression full stop, right Like It's just and I'm

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not saying we you know, obviously, good friends don't beat

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each other over the head with that fact. But whenever

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you hear ahead of state coming out getting blustery, sticking,

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you know, pushing back. I wouldn't even be surprised if

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Trump knew they were going to to do that, and

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that was a strategy, so they could, you know what

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I mean, so they could negotiate privately and both don't

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look like you know, uh uh uh, you know, walkovers

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or pushovers to their to their constituency. So looking at

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us from our angle, I think the risk is extraordinarily overstated.

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Speaker 2: But I don't think it should.

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Speaker 4: Be overlooked because here's the other thing is you have

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a government or an economy starting to come off of

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the greatest financial sugar high of all time at this

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you know, at the same time, so so you could

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get you know, you've got those are both kind of

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depressionary or not depra I don't want to freak people out.

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They both kind of have a depressive impact on the

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on the overall economy.

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Speaker 5: Right.

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Speaker 2: But but now flip over and you look at China.

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Speaker 4: I anticipate China and and possibly even higher rates of

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tariffs and answers back and forth by either side. I

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think that that's probably going to be something that could

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be in place for several years with China specifically. Now

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here's the thing I don't really think that they're going

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to have nearly as big of an impact as most

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people think, because in an effort to get around those tariffs,

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people will quit manufacturing things in China or.

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Speaker 2: As many things in China.

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Speaker 4: Right, yeah, so I once again, if you play it out, look,

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at the end of the day, whoever hads the biggest

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consumer economy holds the most cards in a tearo.

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Speaker 2: Four mm hmm Right, So that's us.

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Speaker 4: Right, So all these people like on our side, and

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it's and and you know it should have been.

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Speaker 2: It should be of no surprise.

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Speaker 4: And I understand they're doing it for politics, but all

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of these you know, every time you hear a politician

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or somebody come out and dog the tariffs, you look

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at them and go, hey, guys, you're making our hand weaker, right,

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just because.

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Speaker 2: You may not like what he's doing.

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Speaker 4: But the bottom line is we are in the best

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position of any country in the world to do this,

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and the quicker we get it over, the better it

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is for everybody, including workers in this country. And you

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getting on TV saying that it's not going to work

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isn't helping, you know, All right.

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Speaker 3: Let's let's build off for crying out loud.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, And and look, it's.

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Speaker 4: The thing that is so frustrating to me, is this

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woke era, right, this stupid era. People are like, oh,

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well that means costs are going to go up and

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the economy might slow down a little bit. And you're like, yeah,

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so do you see all the people wandering around your

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city looking like zombies and deprecating in your strength? That's

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the cost you're currently paying, right right, Like that's so,

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so I think that cost is probably a little bit

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more pernicious.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and so I yeah, I just like and it

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just cracks him out. What is he doing? He doesn't

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even have a plan.

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Speaker 4: And I'm sitting there going, he's been talking about tariff

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since twenty twelve, right, like, yeah, where have you? Man?

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Speaker 2: I'm sorry you don't listen? Right, maybe his plan doesn't work, but.

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Speaker 1: Anyway, well, so for all the people that you've now

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freaked out, who are looking at their portfolios, going, I

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think I might have some of the dumb stuff he

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was talking about. How can we reach you and learn

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more about Bulwark Capital Management?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, super easy to find.

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Speaker 4: Let's go to Bullwarkcapitalmanagement dot com or know your Risk

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Radio dot com. You can just google us Bulwark Capital,

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Know your Risk Radio dot com easy to find. And

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we've got another we got to just did a webinar.

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We have another one coming up and I want to

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say in the next four or five weeks and so

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we'll we'll pump that out here with you guys and

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they'll get to know.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, it not to not to go to find awesome.

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Speaker 3: Thank you so much.

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Speaker 1: Enjoy the rest of your Vacationay, all.

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Speaker 2: Right, thank you, ladies. I got to go out and

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do some snorkeling, so you should have to forgive me.

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Thank you. We'll see what's doing. Reservices offered your Trek

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Financial lc n SEC Registered Investment Advisor.

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Speaker 4: The opinions expressed in this program or for general informational

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purposes only, and are not intended to provide specific advice

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or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security.

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Any references to performance of security so are thought to

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be materially accurate and actual performance may different.

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Speaker 2: Investments involve risk and are not guaranteed. Past performance doesn't

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guarantee future results.

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Speaker 4: Track only fourth three zero