WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.080 --> 00:00:02.200 So I want you to do something for me, just like, 2 00:00:02.439 --> 00:00:04.960 look at a calendar, right, go ahead, glance at your 3 00:00:05.000 --> 00:00:06.679 phone or you know, check your watch, look at the 4 00:00:06.719 --> 00:00:08.759 bottom corner of your screen, and just look at the year. 5 00:00:08.919 --> 00:00:09.279 Okay. 6 00:00:10.160 --> 00:00:14.880 Now I want you to ask yourself a deeply uncomfortable, 7 00:00:15.519 --> 00:00:20.160 like a genuinely mind bending question. How do you actually 8 00:00:20.399 --> 00:00:22.760 definitively know what year it is? 9 00:00:23.039 --> 00:00:25.320 Oh? That is a heavy way to start. 10 00:00:25.440 --> 00:00:27.239 I mean, really think about it. And I don't mean 11 00:00:27.320 --> 00:00:30.519 like who told you or what the general societal consensus is. 12 00:00:30.559 --> 00:00:32.200 I mean, how do you know the age of the. 13 00:00:32.200 --> 00:00:35.079 Earth right, or the stars exactly. 14 00:00:34.600 --> 00:00:37.840 The history of the stars, the centuries of human civilization 15 00:00:37.960 --> 00:00:41.880 that supposedly led up to this exact, hyper specific moment. 16 00:00:42.399 --> 00:00:44.119 How do you know they actually happened. 17 00:00:44.159 --> 00:00:47.719 Well, it's the ultimate cognitive trapdoor, Honestly, it really is, 18 00:00:47.799 --> 00:00:50.759 because when you really interrogate that question, you start to 19 00:00:50.840 --> 00:00:53.759 realize that every single piece of evidence you would use 20 00:00:53.799 --> 00:00:56.439 to prove the passage of time, like fossils, yeah, a 21 00:00:56.479 --> 00:01:02.039 carbonated fossil in a museum, or a geological rock layer 22 00:01:02.079 --> 00:01:05.840 in the Grand Canyon, even the cosmic microwave background radiation 23 00:01:05.959 --> 00:01:08.640 leftover from the Big Bang or even just your own 24 00:01:08.719 --> 00:01:11.359 vivid memories of what you ate for breakfast yesterday. All 25 00:01:11.359 --> 00:01:15.400 of it is just information, just data exactly. It is 26 00:01:15.519 --> 00:01:17.920 data that your brain is processing right now in this 27 00:01:18.000 --> 00:01:21.400 immediate present moment. You don't actually experience the past. You 28 00:01:21.480 --> 00:01:24.239 only ever experience the present reading of a record that. 29 00:01:24.280 --> 00:01:27.799 Is just wow. Okay, well, welcome to Thrilling Threads. 30 00:01:27.799 --> 00:01:28.959 Everyone glad to be here. 31 00:01:29.359 --> 00:01:31.439 This is the space where we take a stack of 32 00:01:31.439 --> 00:01:35.719 the most fascinating sources, research papers, and theories, and we 33 00:01:35.879 --> 00:01:39.519 just extract the most profound insights. We are your personal 34 00:01:39.640 --> 00:01:44.439 guides through like the most mind bending concepts out there. 35 00:01:44.519 --> 00:01:46.560 We really are pulling on some major threads today. 36 00:01:46.599 --> 00:01:49.040 We are today we were taking a thrilling thread and 37 00:01:49.120 --> 00:01:52.000 pulling on it until the very fabric of reality itself 38 00:01:52.079 --> 00:01:55.879 might just completely unravel. Literally, we are diving headfirst into 39 00:01:55.879 --> 00:01:59.680 simulation theory. But like we are setting aside the tired 40 00:01:59.719 --> 00:02:00.959 pop culture troopes. 41 00:02:01.079 --> 00:02:04.200 You know, yeah, no leather trench coats today, right, We. 42 00:02:04.159 --> 00:02:07.280 Aren't talking about wearing sunglasses and dodging slow motion bullets. 43 00:02:07.519 --> 00:02:09.680 We are looking at this through the rigorous logic of 44 00:02:09.759 --> 00:02:11.400 modern philosophy. 45 00:02:11.159 --> 00:02:14.840 And rapidly advancing computational physics. 46 00:02:14.520 --> 00:02:19.039 Yes, and the fundamental, often bizarre laws of quantum mechanics. 47 00:02:19.479 --> 00:02:22.479 We are synthesizing some really heavy hitting material today. 48 00:02:22.520 --> 00:02:23.759 We've got a lot of ground to cover. 49 00:02:23.919 --> 00:02:28.199 We primarily leaned on Nick Bostrom's seminal paper from Simulation 50 00:02:28.319 --> 00:02:32.599 argument dot Com, David chalmers brilliant book Reality plus E, 51 00:02:33.280 --> 00:02:36.599 and some incredibly compelling theories about our cosmic origins. 52 00:02:36.759 --> 00:02:39.319 It is a staggering topic. I mean, it really requires 53 00:02:39.439 --> 00:02:44.800 us to abandon our baseline assumptions about what actually constitutes 54 00:02:44.800 --> 00:02:48.479 a physical object completely because simulation theory has completely migrated 55 00:02:48.520 --> 00:02:51.120 out of the the late night dorm room hypothetical. 56 00:02:51.159 --> 00:02:52.759 Fa Oh, for sure, it's mainstream now. 57 00:02:52.919 --> 00:02:57.439 When you have major figures in aerospace engineering publicly stating 58 00:02:57.479 --> 00:02:59.840 that the odds of us being in base reality are. 59 00:02:59.680 --> 00:03:02.280 One in billions, like Elon Musk right right. 60 00:03:02.199 --> 00:03:05.479 Or mainstream astrophysicists like Neil Degrass Tyson putting the odds 61 00:03:05.520 --> 00:03:08.039 at a clean coin toss. We have to look at 62 00:03:08.039 --> 00:03:09.039 the underlying. 63 00:03:08.599 --> 00:03:09.479 Mass, we really do. 64 00:03:09.879 --> 00:03:12.319 We have to look at the logical frameworks and the 65 00:03:12.400 --> 00:03:17.479 quantum physics that lead incredibly smart, grounded people to say 66 00:03:17.520 --> 00:03:21.199 that this universe looks suspiciously like a rendering engine. 67 00:03:21.280 --> 00:03:23.319 Okay, let's unpack this. I want to ground this in 68 00:03:23.360 --> 00:03:26.840 a feeling first, a deeply visceral experience that I think 69 00:03:26.919 --> 00:03:28.919 almost everyone listening has probably had. 70 00:03:29.000 --> 00:03:29.879 Okay, I'm with you. 71 00:03:29.879 --> 00:03:32.199 You know that surreal sensation of waking up from a 72 00:03:32.280 --> 00:03:36.800 hyperrealistic dream. Oh man, Yes, where for a few terrifying, 73 00:03:37.039 --> 00:03:41.039 completely disorienting seconds, you're lying there in the dark and 74 00:03:41.120 --> 00:03:45.479 your brain is desperately trying to reconcile two completely conflicting 75 00:03:45.520 --> 00:03:46.800 realities because. 76 00:03:46.520 --> 00:03:48.479 The dream felt completely. 77 00:03:48.000 --> 00:03:50.800 Real exactly in the dream, you had a whole life, 78 00:03:50.840 --> 00:03:53.520 You had an urgent mission, you felt the emotional stakes, 79 00:03:53.560 --> 00:03:55.639 you had a full history with the people in the dream. 80 00:03:55.840 --> 00:03:57.479 Your brain was just generating at. 81 00:03:57.439 --> 00:04:01.280 All, generating the whole world on the fly, rendering the physics, 82 00:04:01.319 --> 00:04:04.759 the lighting, the emotional weight, all while your physical body 83 00:04:04.840 --> 00:04:06.240 was just paralyzed in a bed. 84 00:04:06.680 --> 00:04:08.800 It is wild when you think about what the brain 85 00:04:08.879 --> 00:04:09.240 can do. 86 00:04:09.680 --> 00:04:13.879 Right, So let's bridge that neurological phenomenon to the ultimate 87 00:04:13.919 --> 00:04:18.199 thought experiment. What if all of human history, the thirteen 88 00:04:18.279 --> 00:04:22.399 point eight billion year age of the cosmos, your childhood traumas, 89 00:04:22.399 --> 00:04:25.040 your joys, Yeah, all of it what if it was 90 00:04:25.079 --> 00:04:28.680 simply preloaded data in a program running right now? What 91 00:04:28.759 --> 00:04:31.120 if you are inside the dream and something else is 92 00:04:31.199 --> 00:04:32.040 running the code. 93 00:04:32.160 --> 00:04:34.759 Well, to even begin answering that, we really have to 94 00:04:34.759 --> 00:04:37.240 look at the architecture of the argument itself. 95 00:04:37.000 --> 00:04:38.240 Right, Nick Bostrom. 96 00:04:38.360 --> 00:04:41.600 Yes, the philosopher who structured the modern version of this 97 00:04:41.639 --> 00:04:44.560 debate is Nick Bostrom. Back in two thousand and three, 98 00:04:44.639 --> 00:04:47.839 he published a paper that completely shifted the paradigm of 99 00:04:47.879 --> 00:04:49.000 existential philosophy. 100 00:04:49.079 --> 00:04:50.040 It really made waves. 101 00:04:50.399 --> 00:04:54.079 David Pierce, who is a prominent philosopher of mind, actually 102 00:04:54.079 --> 00:04:57.720 called Bostrom's paper the first interesting argument for the existence 103 00:04:57.759 --> 00:04:59.360 of a creator in two thousand years. 104 00:04:59.480 --> 00:05:00.839 That is a massive statement. 105 00:05:01.000 --> 00:05:03.639 It is because Bostrom didn't just pose a fun what 106 00:05:03.879 --> 00:05:05.800 is He presented a trilemma. 107 00:05:05.879 --> 00:05:08.600 A trilemma meaning three options. 108 00:05:08.079 --> 00:05:11.000 Exactly, a mathematical and logical proof stating that one of 109 00:05:11.040 --> 00:05:14.519 three highly specific scenarios absolutely must be true about the 110 00:05:14.560 --> 00:05:17.279 trajectory of life in the universe, and there is no 111 00:05:17.360 --> 00:05:19.680 fourth option. Right, correct, there is no fourth option. 112 00:05:19.879 --> 00:05:22.600 Okay, let's walk through those three options, because I know 113 00:05:22.720 --> 00:05:25.800 they form the absolute bedrock of everything we are going 114 00:05:25.800 --> 00:05:29.199 to explore today. Let's make sure everyone listening is on 115 00:05:29.279 --> 00:05:30.639 the exact same page. 116 00:05:30.920 --> 00:05:36.160 Sounds good. So Option one proposes that civilizations like ours, 117 00:05:36.519 --> 00:05:41.040 you know, technological expanding species almost always destroy themselves. 118 00:05:40.560 --> 00:05:43.519 Before they reach a point where they can build the simulation. 119 00:05:43.160 --> 00:05:46.319 Exactly, before they reach a stage of technological maturity capable 120 00:05:46.360 --> 00:05:48.920 of running realistic simulations of their ancestors. 121 00:05:49.000 --> 00:05:51.680 This sounds very much like the great filter concept. 122 00:05:51.800 --> 00:05:54.319 It is deeply tied to the Fermi paradox and the 123 00:05:54.319 --> 00:05:57.279 concept of the Great filter. The idea is that the 124 00:05:57.399 --> 00:05:58.000 universe is. 125 00:05:57.959 --> 00:05:59.959 Just full of traps, like what kind of traps? 126 00:06:00.199 --> 00:06:04.160 Well, we invent nuclear weapons and annihilate ourselves. Classic or 127 00:06:04.199 --> 00:06:07.800 we create artificial superintelligence that decides we are a threat. 128 00:06:07.800 --> 00:06:10.000 And wipes this out a little more modern, Yeah, we. 129 00:06:10.000 --> 00:06:14.279 Trigger irreversible climbing collapse, right, Or maybe we engineer a 130 00:06:14.360 --> 00:06:17.160 localized black hole and a particle accelerator by accident. 131 00:06:17.600 --> 00:06:21.399 Yikes. Okay, so basically we blow up the lab before 132 00:06:21.439 --> 00:06:23.360 we can build the matrix exactly. 133 00:06:23.639 --> 00:06:26.319 Whatever the specific mominism is, the result is the same. 134 00:06:26.879 --> 00:06:30.600 The species goes extinct before they acquire the computational power 135 00:06:30.639 --> 00:06:32.199 required to simulate reality. 136 00:06:32.439 --> 00:06:35.680 Okay. Option one is the existential doom scenario. 137 00:06:36.600 --> 00:06:37.000 Got it? 138 00:06:37.040 --> 00:06:37.800 What is option two? 139 00:06:38.120 --> 00:06:40.959 So option two suggests that a civilization does manage to 140 00:06:41.040 --> 00:06:44.800 navigate the great filter, they survive, they expand, and they 141 00:06:44.800 --> 00:06:48.360 reach that incredibly advanced post human technological level. 142 00:06:48.480 --> 00:06:50.079 Okay, so they lived. That's good. 143 00:06:50.319 --> 00:06:53.519 It is good, But for whatever reason, they have absolutely 144 00:06:53.639 --> 00:06:57.319 zero interest in running simulations of their evolutionary past. 145 00:06:57.439 --> 00:06:59.199 Wait, really zero interest. 146 00:06:59.319 --> 00:07:02.399 That's the argument. They possess that godlike computing power to 147 00:07:02.439 --> 00:07:04.439 do it, but they actively choose not to. 148 00:07:04.639 --> 00:07:05.759 Why wouldn't they want to? 149 00:07:06.279 --> 00:07:09.839 Well, perhaps it is considered deeply unethical to create simulated 150 00:07:09.879 --> 00:07:12.000 beings that can suffer. You know, they see our pain 151 00:07:12.079 --> 00:07:15.240 and say we shouldn't recreate that. Or perhaps they've evolved 152 00:07:15.279 --> 00:07:18.720 so far beyond their biological origins that our primitive struggles 153 00:07:18.720 --> 00:07:21.000 are just profoundly boring to them. 154 00:07:21.240 --> 00:07:24.839 Boring. Okay, I have some thoughts on that, but let's 155 00:07:24.879 --> 00:07:28.199 hear the final option first. If neither of those first 156 00:07:28.240 --> 00:07:29.160 two options. 157 00:07:28.800 --> 00:07:31.959 Are true, then we arrive at option three, the big one. 158 00:07:32.160 --> 00:07:36.560 Option three states that if civilizations survive, and if they 159 00:07:36.600 --> 00:07:40.160 retain an interest in simulating their past, then we are 160 00:07:40.399 --> 00:07:42.920 almost certainly living in a simulation right now. 161 00:07:43.120 --> 00:07:45.800 Okay, I want to stop right there and put option 162 00:07:45.879 --> 00:07:48.759 three under a microscope, because a listener might hear that 163 00:07:48.800 --> 00:07:51.600 and think, Okay, sure, maybe simulations exist in the future, 164 00:07:51.639 --> 00:07:54.920 but why does that mean we are in one? Why 165 00:07:54.959 --> 00:07:59.480 couldn't we just be the lucky biological civilization currently living 166 00:07:59.560 --> 00:08:03.439 in the real base reality, grinding our way toward that superfuture. 167 00:08:03.680 --> 00:08:06.519 That is the most natural objection, but it crumbles when 168 00:08:06.560 --> 00:08:09.720 you apply the sheer mathematics of computing power and scale. 169 00:08:09.800 --> 00:08:10.480 Break that down. 170 00:08:10.519 --> 00:08:13.680 For me to understand Bostrom's logic, we have to imagine 171 00:08:13.720 --> 00:08:18.920 the computational capacity of a technologically mature, post human civilization. 172 00:08:19.199 --> 00:08:21.920 We aren't talking about, you know, quantum computers sitting in 173 00:08:21.920 --> 00:08:22.800 the server farm in. 174 00:08:22.720 --> 00:08:24.360 Silicon Valley, right, It's bigger than that. 175 00:08:24.720 --> 00:08:28.480 We are talking about megastructures. Consider the concept of a 176 00:08:28.480 --> 00:08:29.480 Matrioshka brain. 177 00:08:29.639 --> 00:08:31.759 I've heard of Dyson spheres. Is it like that? 178 00:08:32.080 --> 00:08:36.080 Very similar? It's a hypothetical computational megastructure that relies on 179 00:08:36.120 --> 00:08:40.279 a Dyson sphere architecture. You completely enclose a star or 180 00:08:40.320 --> 00:08:45.120 maybe even multiple stars with layers of computational substrate. 181 00:08:44.759 --> 00:08:46.799 So you're literally caging a sun. 182 00:08:47.080 --> 00:08:50.200 Yes, you are harvesting the entire energy output of a star, 183 00:08:50.639 --> 00:08:54.879 capturing every single photon to power a planetary sized computer. 184 00:08:54.919 --> 00:08:57.600 That is insane to even visualize. 185 00:08:57.720 --> 00:09:00.960 The inner layers run a blisteringly high ten temperatures, and 186 00:09:01.039 --> 00:09:03.080 the waste heat powers the next layer out and. 187 00:09:03.000 --> 00:09:04.879 The next layer until it's all used up. 188 00:09:05.000 --> 00:09:07.879 Exactly until the outermost layer is radiating heat at the 189 00:09:07.919 --> 00:09:09.320 background temperature of space. 190 00:09:09.440 --> 00:09:12.399 So you essentially turn an entire solar system into a 191 00:09:12.440 --> 00:09:13.840 single CPU. 192 00:09:13.679 --> 00:09:16.279 Precisely the scale we are talking about now. If a 193 00:09:16.279 --> 00:09:21.039 civilization with a matriosh Cabrain decides to run ancestor simulations. 194 00:09:20.519 --> 00:09:22.080 Which means simulations of us. 195 00:09:22.279 --> 00:09:26.360 Yes, simulations of the turbulent biological era of their own history, 196 00:09:26.519 --> 00:09:30.039 which is exactly what our current existence represents. If they 197 00:09:30.080 --> 00:09:32.679 do that, they wouldn't just spin up one single. 198 00:09:32.399 --> 00:09:34.559 Instance because they have all that power. 199 00:09:34.759 --> 00:09:37.279 The computational cost would be a rounding error to them. 200 00:09:37.440 --> 00:09:40.879 They could run millions, billions, or even trillions of highly 201 00:09:40.919 --> 00:09:45.039 detailed simulations simultaneously. Wow, they would run variations. What if 202 00:09:45.039 --> 00:09:48.519 the metior missed the Yucatan Peninsula and dinosaurs never died out? 203 00:09:48.679 --> 00:09:50.399 Oh, I played that game right? 204 00:09:50.799 --> 00:09:53.759 Or what if the Roman Empire industrialized? What if a 205 00:09:53.799 --> 00:09:55.480 specific political leader was. 206 00:09:55.440 --> 00:09:57.519 Never born, So it's basically a numbers game. 207 00:09:57.639 --> 00:10:00.360 It is entirely a numbers game. If an advance ofization 208 00:10:00.440 --> 00:10:04.919 creates billions of simulated universes for every single base reality 209 00:10:05.000 --> 00:10:08.960 universe that naturally exists, then the number of simulated conscious 210 00:10:09.000 --> 00:10:13.000 minds would vastly outnumber original biological minds. 211 00:10:12.679 --> 00:10:14.480 By an astronomical margin. 212 00:10:14.240 --> 00:10:17.960 That almost incomprehensible margin. Statistically, if you put all the 213 00:10:18.000 --> 00:10:21.559 conscious minds that have ever existed, across all realities, biological 214 00:10:21.600 --> 00:10:24.720 and simulated, into a giant cosmic lottery machine and you 215 00:10:24.799 --> 00:10:25.320 pull one. 216 00:10:25.159 --> 00:10:27.559 Out at random, the odds that you pull out the 217 00:10:27.639 --> 00:10:33.559 singular original biological mind from base reality is basically. 218 00:10:33.120 --> 00:10:37.039 Zero, effectively zero. You're almost certainly pulling a simulated one. 219 00:10:37.120 --> 00:10:39.559 It's like standing on a beach that stretches across the 220 00:10:39.759 --> 00:10:43.000 entire globe, picking up a single grain of sand and 221 00:10:43.159 --> 00:10:45.639 betting your life that it's the one grain of sand 222 00:10:45.639 --> 00:10:46.799 that isn't made of silica. 223 00:10:46.879 --> 00:10:51.399 That is a perfect analogy. Exactly so Bostrom's logic forces 224 00:10:51.440 --> 00:10:55.080 our hand. If civilizations don't always die, and if they 225 00:10:55.200 --> 00:10:58.480 like simulating things, you are a simulated mind. 226 00:10:58.639 --> 00:11:01.120 Okay, but I have to push back hard on option too, 227 00:11:01.279 --> 00:11:04.559 the apathy option. Yes, this idea that a super advanced 228 00:11:04.559 --> 00:11:08.080 civilization might survive but just lose interest in their past, 229 00:11:08.480 --> 00:11:11.320 that they would find it unethical or boring. Does that 230 00:11:11.360 --> 00:11:14.360 actually track with anything we know about the nature of intelligence. 231 00:11:14.440 --> 00:11:16.159 It's a heavily debated point. 232 00:11:15.919 --> 00:11:18.799 Because look at human behavior right now. We are absolutely 233 00:11:18.879 --> 00:11:20.519 obsessed with recreating our history. 234 00:11:20.600 --> 00:11:21.200 We really are. 235 00:11:21.320 --> 00:11:25.360 We build massive, sprawling, open world video games with budgets 236 00:11:25.519 --> 00:11:28.159 larger than Hollywood movies just so we can walk around 237 00:11:28.159 --> 00:11:31.000 a rendering of Renaissance Italy or ancient Greece or the 238 00:11:31.039 --> 00:11:35.720 Wild West. We pour billions of dollars into historical dramas, 239 00:11:36.360 --> 00:11:42.639 immersive virtual reality experiences, even physical historical reenactments. Our entire 240 00:11:42.799 --> 00:11:47.039 entertainment infrastructure is largely predicated on simulating realities we didn't 241 00:11:47.080 --> 00:11:47.639 get to live in. 242 00:11:48.000 --> 00:11:49.200 That is a very fair point. 243 00:11:49.240 --> 00:11:51.960 If humanity eventually possessed the power to spin up a 244 00:11:52.000 --> 00:11:56.120 fully conscious universe just to watch history unfold or to 245 00:11:56.200 --> 00:12:00.080 experience it firsthand, I cannot fathom a scenario where we 246 00:12:00.120 --> 00:12:01.559 collectively decide not to do it. 247 00:12:01.600 --> 00:12:04.240 We wouldn't just do it, we'd probably commercialize it exactly. 248 00:12:04.399 --> 00:12:07.519 We would have teenagers running pocket universes on the futuristic 249 00:12:07.559 --> 00:12:08.720 equivalent of a smartphone. 250 00:12:09.039 --> 00:12:12.240 The psychology of option two is tricky for exactly that reason. 251 00:12:12.720 --> 00:12:16.039 To assume a post human civilization would completely shed all 252 00:12:16.120 --> 00:12:19.399 curiosity about their origins, it requires us to imagine a 253 00:12:19.440 --> 00:12:23.159 psychological shift so massive that they cease to be recognizable 254 00:12:23.200 --> 00:12:24.480 as descendants. 255 00:12:23.919 --> 00:12:26.480 Of humanity, right because curiosity built us. 256 00:12:26.759 --> 00:12:29.919 Curiosity and the drive to model the world are the 257 00:12:29.960 --> 00:12:35.279 evolutionary traits that built our civilization in the first place. Now, 258 00:12:35.279 --> 00:12:38.840 some philosophers do argue that creating conscious beings that can 259 00:12:38.879 --> 00:12:42.360 suffer just for an experiment is highly immoral, which is true, 260 00:12:42.399 --> 00:12:45.279 and therefore an advanced species wouldn't do it. But that 261 00:12:45.399 --> 00:12:50.039 assumes ethical progress perfectly tracks with technological progress. 262 00:12:49.720 --> 00:12:52.200 And human history completely refutes that. 263 00:12:52.399 --> 00:12:56.039 Demonstrably, we build the technology first, and we argue about 264 00:12:56.039 --> 00:12:57.360 the ethics decades later. 265 00:12:57.600 --> 00:13:00.679 Seriously, look at social media, look at AI right now. 266 00:13:00.799 --> 00:13:04.799 Exactly So, if option one complete cosmic doom is avoidable, 267 00:13:05.240 --> 00:13:08.879 and if Option two total apathy toward our origins contradicts 268 00:13:09.000 --> 00:13:11.960 the very nature of conscious curiosity. 269 00:13:11.480 --> 00:13:13.960 Then we are left staring straight down the barrel of 270 00:13:13.960 --> 00:13:14.639 option three. 271 00:13:14.679 --> 00:13:16.879 We are inside the machine. 272 00:13:16.399 --> 00:13:19.440 Which means we are forced to ask the next logical question, 273 00:13:19.960 --> 00:13:23.120 if we are inside a simulation, how good is the simulation? 274 00:13:23.200 --> 00:13:25.320 And more importantly, can we look for the seams in 275 00:13:25.360 --> 00:13:25.840 the code? 276 00:13:26.000 --> 00:13:27.559 Yes, if you want to know if you're in a 277 00:13:27.600 --> 00:13:29.519 rendered environment, you don't look at the trees, you look 278 00:13:29.519 --> 00:13:30.000 at the pixel. 279 00:13:30.080 --> 00:13:31.879 You look at for the boundaries exactly. 280 00:13:32.519 --> 00:13:35.440 And perhaps the most intuitive way to approach this is 281 00:13:35.480 --> 00:13:38.320 to look at the trajectory of our own technology. How 282 00:13:38.360 --> 00:13:41.559 close are we to building a simulation that can fool 283 00:13:41.600 --> 00:13:42.480 a conscious mind? 284 00:13:42.639 --> 00:13:45.440 And the answer is terrifyingly close. 285 00:13:45.960 --> 00:13:49.039 The gap between base reality and our simulated realities is 286 00:13:49.039 --> 00:13:52.320 closing at an exponential rate. Let's just look at the timeline. Okay, 287 00:13:52.960 --> 00:13:56.679 Forty years ago, the absolute pinnacle of simulated reality was 288 00:13:56.720 --> 00:14:00.679 two glowing white rectangles bouncing a square dot across a 289 00:14:00.720 --> 00:14:01.360 black screen. 290 00:14:01.639 --> 00:14:03.080 Pong, good old pong. 291 00:14:03.320 --> 00:14:06.039 Right. It required immense imagination on the part of the 292 00:14:06.039 --> 00:14:10.000 player to map that onto physical reality. But today we 293 00:14:10.039 --> 00:14:11.360 have unreal engine five. 294 00:14:11.600 --> 00:14:13.200 Oh man, it is why. 295 00:14:13.080 --> 00:14:15.919 We have environments that are entirely photorealistic. We have real 296 00:14:15.960 --> 00:14:17.240 time path tracing. 297 00:14:16.960 --> 00:14:19.879 Which means what exactly For the non gamers, it. 298 00:14:19.799 --> 00:14:22.759 Means the physics engine isn't just faking the lighting. It 299 00:14:22.840 --> 00:14:26.799 is calculating the exact trajectory of simulated photons as they 300 00:14:26.840 --> 00:14:29.799 bounce off a textured puddle of water and refract through 301 00:14:29.840 --> 00:14:32.559 a dirty glass window in real time. In real time, 302 00:14:32.600 --> 00:14:34.360 at sixty frames per second. 303 00:14:34.080 --> 00:14:38.320 I can actually speak to this on a deeply visceral level. Yeah. So, 304 00:14:38.480 --> 00:14:40.600 I recently had a chance to try one of those 305 00:14:40.720 --> 00:14:44.240 really high end enterprise level VR. 306 00:14:44.000 --> 00:14:45.799 Headsets, the really expensive ones. 307 00:14:45.960 --> 00:14:48.320 Right, The resolution was so high the screen door effect 308 00:14:48.360 --> 00:14:52.240 was just entirely gone. They loaded me into a program 309 00:14:52.360 --> 00:14:54.480 where the environment was a skyscraper. 310 00:14:54.879 --> 00:14:56.159 I think, I know where this is going. 311 00:14:56.240 --> 00:14:59.200 The elevator doors open and there was this wooden plank 312 00:14:59.320 --> 00:15:02.360 sticking out over a thousand foot drop to the city 313 00:15:02.399 --> 00:15:03.039 streets below. 314 00:15:03.120 --> 00:15:04.039 The plank experience. 315 00:15:04.080 --> 00:15:08.120 Yeah yeah, my prefrombal cortex, my logical brain was fully 316 00:15:08.159 --> 00:15:11.120 aware that I was standing barefoot on a carpeted floor 317 00:15:11.159 --> 00:15:14.519 in a windowless room. I knew it as a factual. 318 00:15:14.159 --> 00:15:15.840 Certainty, but your body disagreed. 319 00:15:16.440 --> 00:15:19.000 The moment I stepped toward the edge of that virtual plank, 320 00:15:19.320 --> 00:15:23.519 my biological hardware completely overrode my logic. The visual input 321 00:15:23.519 --> 00:15:26.000 of the height, the special audio of the wind, rushing 322 00:15:26.039 --> 00:15:28.720 past my ears the slight sway of the rendered environment. 323 00:15:29.240 --> 00:15:31.399 It literally hijacked my nervous system. 324 00:15:31.440 --> 00:15:32.159 You get vertigo. 325 00:15:32.399 --> 00:15:36.480 I experienced profound vertigo. My heart rates skyrocketed, my palms 326 00:15:36.480 --> 00:15:40.120 were sweating profusely, and my legs actually locked up. I 327 00:15:40.200 --> 00:15:43.360 physically could not force myself to step off the virtual plank. 328 00:15:43.679 --> 00:15:46.360 My brain had just accepted the simulated input as a 329 00:15:46.480 --> 00:15:48.159 primary survival reality. 330 00:15:48.519 --> 00:15:52.600 That biological override is the crucial detail here. Your brain, 331 00:15:52.840 --> 00:15:56.440 which evolved over millions of years to process physical reality, 332 00:15:56.879 --> 00:16:01.039 was completely fooled by visual and auditory data generated by 333 00:16:01.039 --> 00:16:02.759 a consumer grade processor in. 334 00:16:02.720 --> 00:16:04.440 The year twenty twenty six exactly. 335 00:16:04.720 --> 00:16:07.240 Now, apply More's law to that, or even just a 336 00:16:07.240 --> 00:16:11.240 conservative fraction of it, extrapolate our current technological growth out 337 00:16:11.519 --> 00:16:12.320 a thousand years. 338 00:16:12.440 --> 00:16:13.759 For one hundred thousand years, a. 339 00:16:13.720 --> 00:16:17.200 Civilization a million years ahead of us would possess commutational paradigms. 340 00:16:17.559 --> 00:16:20.639 We literally do not have the physics to conceptualize, right. 341 00:16:20.519 --> 00:16:23.840 Because imagine trying to explain the Internet to a medieval 342 00:16:23.919 --> 00:16:24.519 farmer in. 343 00:16:24.440 --> 00:16:27.559 The year fourteen hundred. Explaining cloud computing and large language 344 00:16:27.559 --> 00:16:30.480 models would be impossible. We just register as magic to them. 345 00:16:30.399 --> 00:16:33.320 So to us a Matrioshka Brian. Running a universe seems 346 00:16:33.399 --> 00:16:34.320 like magic. 347 00:16:34.320 --> 00:16:37.639 But logically it is just an engineering problem. On a 348 00:16:37.679 --> 00:16:42.399 long enough timeline, we are already building the rudimentary scaffolding 349 00:16:42.600 --> 00:16:43.279 of the matrix. 350 00:16:43.360 --> 00:16:45.879 So if we accept that we are already building these 351 00:16:45.960 --> 00:16:49.879 rudimentary simulations, then we actually have an incredible advantage here. 352 00:16:50.000 --> 00:16:51.559 We know how they work exactly. 353 00:16:51.720 --> 00:16:54.600 We know the architecture. We know the tricks, the shortcuts, 354 00:16:54.600 --> 00:16:57.919 and the mechanics that developers use to manage complex systems 355 00:16:57.919 --> 00:16:59.320 and keep players engaged. 356 00:16:59.399 --> 00:17:00.600 We just have to look for them. 357 00:17:00.720 --> 00:17:05.359 Right. If our universe is a simulation, it's fundamental architecture, 358 00:17:05.480 --> 00:17:08.680 like the broad sweep of human history, the behavior of 359 00:17:08.720 --> 00:17:12.039 society at a macro level, it shouldn't look random. It 360 00:17:12.039 --> 00:17:15.000 should look suspeciously like the games we currently play. It 361 00:17:15.000 --> 00:17:16.640 should look managed, and we. 362 00:17:16.599 --> 00:17:21.039 Can actually shift this from abstract philosophy into observable patterns. 363 00:17:21.200 --> 00:17:21.759 Let's do it. 364 00:17:21.799 --> 00:17:26.240 In the architecture of massive multiplayer online games. You know, 365 00:17:26.680 --> 00:17:31.960 persistent worlds that host millions of players. Developers face a 366 00:17:32.000 --> 00:17:33.119 systemic problem. 367 00:17:33.240 --> 00:17:34.720 What happens when they just let it run. 368 00:17:35.000 --> 00:17:37.880 If you just let the game run endlessly without intervention, 369 00:17:38.240 --> 00:17:42.279 the system stagnates, wealth concentrates at the very top. New 370 00:17:42.279 --> 00:17:46.000 players literally can't compete, the environment is stripped of resources, 371 00:17:46.200 --> 00:17:47.559 and the narrative just stalls. 372 00:17:47.720 --> 00:17:48.720 They have to intervene. 373 00:17:49.000 --> 00:17:53.799 To fix this, developers utilize a mechanic called seasons or server. 374 00:17:53.640 --> 00:17:55.839 Resets, like in Fortnite or Diablo. 375 00:17:56.000 --> 00:17:59.359 Exactly at the end of a predefined period, the developers 376 00:17:59.359 --> 00:18:02.680 introduce m massive unavoidable in game. 377 00:18:02.480 --> 00:18:04.480 Cataclysm, a giant event. 378 00:18:04.839 --> 00:18:08.799 The map is physically altered, the economic rules change, players 379 00:18:08.839 --> 00:18:11.240 lose their hoarded advantages, and a new version of the 380 00:18:11.240 --> 00:18:14.440 game launches with tweaked parameters to keep the system dynamic. 381 00:18:14.519 --> 00:18:17.599 A hard wipe you level the playing field, introduce new 382 00:18:17.599 --> 00:18:20.519 mechanics and force the players to adapt. So how does 383 00:18:20.559 --> 00:18:22.720 that map onto our actual human history. 384 00:18:23.000 --> 00:18:26.039 Well, when you view the geological and archaeological records through 385 00:18:26.079 --> 00:18:30.720 the lens of simulation theory, human history is punctuated by massive, sudden, 386 00:18:30.839 --> 00:18:33.720 and largely inexplicable cataclysms. 387 00:18:33.079 --> 00:18:35.359 That function exactly like server resets. 388 00:18:35.799 --> 00:18:39.079 Let's look at the younger Driest impact hypothesis. Roughly twelve 389 00:18:39.559 --> 00:18:42.559 nine hundred years ago, we have evidence of a massive, 390 00:18:42.720 --> 00:18:48.200 sudden climatic shift temperatures plummeted globally in a matter of decades. Megafauna, 391 00:18:48.400 --> 00:18:51.519 the massive mammals that dominated the landscape, were wiped. 392 00:18:51.119 --> 00:18:53.880 Out, so the available resources completely changed. 393 00:18:53.960 --> 00:18:57.920 Quman populations were dractically reduced, and the trajectory of early 394 00:18:57.960 --> 00:19:00.000 civilization was fundamentally direct. 395 00:19:00.279 --> 00:19:04.240 It's the ultimate the map has changed. Good luck scenario. 396 00:19:04.480 --> 00:19:06.279 But it gets even more specific when you look at 397 00:19:06.319 --> 00:19:07.799 the Bronze Age collapse, doesn't it. 398 00:19:07.839 --> 00:19:10.839 Oh, The Late Bronze Age collapse is perhaps the most 399 00:19:10.880 --> 00:19:15.119 perfect historical analog for a corrupted save file or a 400 00:19:15.160 --> 00:19:19.400 cascading server failure. What happened around twelve hundred BCE. The 401 00:19:19.440 --> 00:19:23.359