WEBVTT 1 00:00:10.169 --> 00:00:13.369 Hello, everyone, and good morning. Now, we've noticed a significant 2 00:00:13.470 --> 00:00:17.629 bump in subscribers lately, so if you're new here, welcome. Now, 3 00:00:17.670 --> 00:00:21.929 Forward Observer produces an intelligence briefing for decision makers, and 4 00:00:22.109 --> 00:00:26.260 it's the best analysis you can get without a top-secret clearance. Now, 5 00:00:26.280 --> 00:00:30.039 our team is 100% former military intelligence, and if you 6 00:00:30.079 --> 00:00:34.600 like our threat reporting, head over to forwardobserver.com and please 7 00:00:34.640 --> 00:00:36.640 consider a WatchFloor subscription. 8 00:00:37.200 --> 00:00:38.000 Now, let's get started. 9 00:00:38.390 --> 00:00:42.759 With the morning briefing for Friday, the 4th of September, 2026. 10 00:00:42.759 --> 00:00:46.520 First up is our executive summary. Inside the Beltway News, 11 00:00:46.600 --> 00:00:50.079 President Donald Trump said the U.S. is preparing and stockpiling 12 00:00:50.100 --> 00:00:54.909 munitions for any contingency. The Department of Justice ended its 13 00:00:54.929 --> 00:01:01.049 37-year monitoring program of the Teamsters Union. Domestically, the Young 14 00:01:01.289 --> 00:01:05.659 Democratic Socialists of America said its membership has expanded by 15 00:01:05.659 --> 00:01:11.849 50% in 2026. The Trump administration announced the launch of 16 00:01:12.329 --> 00:01:17.969 Foundry School, a training program for engineers, technicians, and industrial leaders. 17 00:01:18.349 --> 00:01:23.170 In homeland operations, ICE announced a new record for enforcement arrests, 18 00:01:23.810 --> 00:01:29.489 almost 51,000 arrests in August. Globally, German police announced the 19 00:01:29.609 --> 00:01:33.750 fourth attack on their power grid this week, utilizing improvised 20 00:01:34.049 --> 00:01:38.510 rockets designed to short out high-voltage power lines. Also, Treasury 21 00:01:38.569 --> 00:01:42.480 Secretary Besant reported that the European Union has joined Operation 22 00:01:42.700 --> 00:01:45.560 Economic Outcast to isolate Iran. 23 00:01:46.239 --> 00:01:46.879 Also, the U.S. 24 00:01:46.920 --> 00:01:50.939 And Taiwan announced that Taiwan would be investing another $ 20 25 00:01:50.400 --> 00:01:55.049 billion into U.S. chip fabrication. Let's move into the meat 26 00:01:55.069 --> 00:01:57.930 of the report. I'd like to bring on Robert. Good morning, Robert. 27 00:01:58.390 --> 00:01:59.510 Good morning, Matt. Good morning, everyone. 28 00:02:02.230 --> 00:02:06.829 All right, Robert, the Trump administration, excuse me, the Federal 29 00:02:06.879 --> 00:02:10.180 Southern District of New York approved an agreement between the 30 00:02:10.219 --> 00:02:14.300 Department of Justice and the International Brotherhood of Teamsters Union 31 00:02:14.780 --> 00:02:19.240 to end the 37-year federal monitoring of the union. What 32 00:02:19.360 --> 00:02:22.599 is the federal monitorship and why is it ending now? 33 00:02:22.879 --> 00:02:25.830 And does this signal the end of the Italian mafia? 34 00:02:26.550 --> 00:02:30.680 Well, so federal monitorship, they were imposed on In this case, 35 00:02:30.719 --> 00:02:33.939 the Teamsters Union back in the 80s, and this was 36 00:02:33.979 --> 00:02:39.800 to counter organized crime influence in the union. Some of 37 00:02:39.840 --> 00:02:43.240 the moves made to end this federal monitorship began at 38 00:02:43.259 --> 00:02:45.919 the very tail end of the Obama administration. But I 39 00:02:46.039 --> 00:02:49.819 think this is being sped up by the Trump administration 40 00:02:50.500 --> 00:02:53.319 because I think Trump is trying to court the Teamsters 41 00:02:53.370 --> 00:02:56.930 rank and file ahead of the 2026 midterm election, just 42 00:02:56.949 --> 00:03:01.139 like he did ahead of 2024. So in the 2024 election, 43 00:03:01.159 --> 00:03:05.520 about 60% of the membership voted to endorse Trump ahead 44 00:03:05.539 --> 00:03:09.780 of the election. But Sean O'Brien, the Teamsters president, decided 45 00:03:09.840 --> 00:03:12.919 not to endorse either candidate, which was in effect an 46 00:03:12.960 --> 00:03:16.719 endorsement for Trump because mostly the other union leadership of 47 00:03:16.819 --> 00:03:20.800 other unions endorsed Kamala Harris. And traditionally, there is a 48 00:03:20.860 --> 00:03:24.189 break between the rank and file and union management on politics. 49 00:03:24.210 --> 00:03:26.849 But in this case, I think this break we're seeing 50 00:03:26.879 --> 00:03:29.259 like the teamsters especially the rank and file but even 51 00:03:29.319 --> 00:03:31.939 sean o'brien is getting closer to the administration the republican 52 00:03:31.979 --> 00:03:36.719 party is between white blue-collar union workers and white-collar and 53 00:03:36.740 --> 00:03:39.259 service industry union workers because other unions like the united 54 00:03:39.319 --> 00:03:43.969 auto workers have been expanding into uh universities and service 55 00:03:44.000 --> 00:03:46.889 industries to bolster their numbers so i think what we're 56 00:03:46.909 --> 00:03:50.289 seeing here is really uh this blue red bifurcation by 57 00:03:50.610 --> 00:03:53.909 economic stat by job status basically where the blue america 58 00:03:54.629 --> 00:04:00.159 is the information economy, white-collar services economy, and red America 59 00:04:00.289 --> 00:04:02.960 is the blue-collar labor economy. And I think this is 60 00:04:03.520 --> 00:04:09.240 another one of those kind of symptoms of the red-blue bifurcation. Okay. 61 00:04:09.460 --> 00:04:12.550 Now, Robert, I'd like to bring Jared in here, our 62 00:04:12.610 --> 00:04:16.689 China expert. President Donald Trump said the U.S. is preparing 63 00:04:16.889 --> 00:04:21.519 and stockpiling munitions to for any contingency, President Trump added 64 00:04:21.560 --> 00:04:25.040 that the U.S. is producing munitions, quote, at levels never 65 00:04:25.160 --> 00:04:29.850 seen before, and, quote, we are taking them for ourselves. Now, 66 00:04:29.870 --> 00:04:33.110 these comments from Trump follow a statement this week from 67 00:04:33.329 --> 00:04:37.110 Secretary of State Rubio that there is high demand for U.S. 68 00:04:37.149 --> 00:04:40.569 missile interceptors from around the world, but that the U.S. 69 00:04:40.730 --> 00:04:45.129 has its own defense needs. Now, what are these two statements, 70 00:04:45.170 --> 00:04:48.449 both from Trump and Secretary Rubio? What does this indicate 71 00:04:48.569 --> 00:04:52.269 for the Trump administration? Is this a further indication that 72 00:04:52.290 --> 00:04:57.069 the U.S. Patriot missile inventory specifically is lower than is 73 00:04:57.189 --> 00:04:59.709 obviously wished for by the Pentagon and the White House? 74 00:05:00.769 --> 00:05:04.709 Well, I think this is an indicator of two possibilities, 75 00:05:04.850 --> 00:05:08.860 two potential courses of action. The Trump administration... One of 76 00:05:08.899 --> 00:05:11.600 those being the Trump administration is preparing for this anticipated 77 00:05:11.600 --> 00:05:16.660 2027 U.S.-China crisis or conflict over Taiwan. And the second 78 00:05:16.939 --> 00:05:20.620 being that this could be an indicator that the U.S. 79 00:05:20.639 --> 00:05:24.810 stocks of these interceptors are significantly drawn down, not just 80 00:05:24.850 --> 00:05:27.709 from Iran operations over the last six months, but from 81 00:05:27.730 --> 00:05:32.040 years of transfers to Ukraine. And the Trump administration is– 82 00:05:32.290 --> 00:05:34.870 this is an indicator the Trump administration is at least 83 00:05:35.129 --> 00:05:40.250 talking about suspending foreign military sales of those weapon systems 84 00:05:40.310 --> 00:05:42.350 to rearm, to refill those stocks. 85 00:05:44.920 --> 00:05:47.860 Now, Jared, I know that you were doing some research 86 00:05:47.899 --> 00:05:52.519 here on U.S. military equipment sales. What do you have 87 00:05:52.579 --> 00:05:52.839 on that? 88 00:05:53.720 --> 00:05:56.920 Yeah, so I actually monitor this every day, and the 89 00:05:57.040 --> 00:06:01.389 State Department is– one of the first agencies to really say. 90 00:06:01.430 --> 00:06:04.509 Hey, here's what we intend to approve. Congress, can you 91 00:06:04.529 --> 00:06:06.029 go ahead and get this done? 92 00:06:08.110 --> 00:06:11.990 I believe it was just the 21st of August that 93 00:06:12.110 --> 00:06:15.949 they had just approved another set of missile sales. These 94 00:06:16.029 --> 00:06:22.319 were sidewinders, but the point is they are still selling munitions. 95 00:06:24.740 --> 00:06:27.420 In the official reporting, they are it's been pretty routine 96 00:06:27.439 --> 00:06:29.319 all throughout summer that they're still selling munitions. 97 00:06:30.779 --> 00:06:31.180 Okay. 98 00:06:31.379 --> 00:06:33.120 Well, we'll definitely keep an eye on this. We have 99 00:06:33.160 --> 00:06:36.639 a little bit of conflicting information here. The congressional, the 100 00:06:36.689 --> 00:06:39.769 congressional reporting is that we are still selling munitions and 101 00:06:39.810 --> 00:06:40.610 president Trump. 102 00:06:41.089 --> 00:06:44.129 They're asking for congressional approval to sell it. So the 103 00:06:44.170 --> 00:06:45.660 state department is still trying to sell it. 104 00:06:46.649 --> 00:06:47.029 Oh, okay. 105 00:06:47.250 --> 00:06:49.620 Okay. Well, thank you for that clarification. And Jared, we'll 106 00:06:49.639 --> 00:06:52.730 bring you back for global a little bit later. Now, Robert, 107 00:06:52.990 --> 00:06:56.750 the Young Democratic Socialists of America said its membership has 108 00:06:56.829 --> 00:07:00.500 expanded by 50% and it's started more than 50 new 109 00:07:00.540 --> 00:07:05.000 chapters so far in 2026. Now, the YDSA said it 110 00:07:05.120 --> 00:07:09.579 now has more than 3,000 members across 160 chapters and 111 00:07:09.600 --> 00:07:14.040 the highest membership in the YDSA's 60-year history. Now, the 112 00:07:14.180 --> 00:07:17.220 YDSA said its ultimate goal is to, quote, build power 113 00:07:17.420 --> 00:07:22.720 at the campus and to fight the transfiguration of the U.S. 114 00:07:22.920 --> 00:07:27.360 university system. Robert, why is the DSA and the young 115 00:07:27.399 --> 00:07:31.889 DSA expanding so much in 2026? What's driving this expansion? 116 00:07:32.410 --> 00:07:36.050 Well, I think, well, first off, like the DSA, likewise, 117 00:07:36.089 --> 00:07:38.790 has grown the membership and expanded significantly this year. I 118 00:07:39.529 --> 00:07:42.490 think this is likely we're seeing this increased support for 119 00:07:42.529 --> 00:07:45.329 the DSA and the young DSA. The young DSA on 120 00:07:45.379 --> 00:07:49.519 a smaller scale, obviously, because the DSA is now has, 121 00:07:49.899 --> 00:07:52.920 I think they said when we last reported on it, 120,000 122 00:07:52.920 --> 00:07:57.920 dues-paying members now. I think this is likely due to 123 00:07:57.939 --> 00:08:02.560 the younger Democrat voter base and their frustration with establishment 124 00:08:02.579 --> 00:08:07.720 Democrats and that they are more open, according to opinion polling, 125 00:08:07.759 --> 00:08:12.160 more open to progressive and democratic socialist policies, especially economic policies. 126 00:08:12.180 --> 00:08:15.019 I think that's why we're seeing this record growth by 127 00:08:15.100 --> 00:08:19.050 both the DSA and the young DSA. Okay. 128 00:08:19.189 --> 00:08:23.410 Now, Robert, have you noticed any significant differences of the 129 00:08:23.490 --> 00:08:27.779 extremism between the young DSA and the mainline DSA? 130 00:08:29.199 --> 00:08:31.000 I think the white DSA is probably a little bit 131 00:08:31.040 --> 00:08:34.639 more extreme on their public opinions because the DSA is 132 00:08:34.720 --> 00:08:39.629 not just an act like a far progressive, sort of 133 00:08:39.690 --> 00:08:42.629 on the far left progressive line group. They're also a 134 00:08:43.009 --> 00:08:48.200 political group, and they're running candidates in office. They're backing 135 00:08:48.259 --> 00:08:52.000 candidates in office. So there's also a struggle going on 136 00:08:52.039 --> 00:08:56.679 within the DSA as well over some DSA factions that 137 00:08:56.740 --> 00:09:00.399 want to be more pragmatic with electoral politics and some 138 00:09:00.440 --> 00:09:07.110 that are trying to maintain the more radical character of 139 00:09:07.149 --> 00:09:08.110 DSA politics. 140 00:09:08.129 --> 00:09:09.370 Okay. 141 00:09:09.389 --> 00:09:09.629 Okay. 142 00:09:10.279 --> 00:09:13.340 Now, moving over to a quick update on ICE agent 143 00:09:13.379 --> 00:09:17.429 Castro that we've been covering here. Federal grand jury returned 144 00:09:17.549 --> 00:09:21.730 an indictment against ICE agent Christian Castro for making false 145 00:09:21.809 --> 00:09:25.740 statements after an ICE officer involved shooting in January. The 146 00:09:25.759 --> 00:09:29.080 Department of Justice said Castro is still under investigation and 147 00:09:29.139 --> 00:09:32.210 more charges are may be coming. Robert, what do you 148 00:09:32.230 --> 00:09:35.429 think that this indicates? Is the Trump administration, is this 149 00:09:35.480 --> 00:09:39.480 an effort by the Trump administration potentially to shield Agent 150 00:09:39.519 --> 00:09:42.600 Castro from state charges in Minnesota? 151 00:09:43.539 --> 00:09:49.419 It's possible. So what happened here is federal prosecutors in 152 00:09:49.440 --> 00:09:55.509 Minnesota wanted to charge Castro with civil rights violations and 153 00:09:55.750 --> 00:09:59.809 that was apparently put on hold by DOJ headquarters and 154 00:09:59.909 --> 00:10:05.399 now they're charging him with lying during the investigation of 155 00:10:05.429 --> 00:10:07.899 the shooting. I think it's possible that this is a 156 00:10:07.960 --> 00:10:10.799 way for the Trump administration to kind of control the 157 00:10:10.840 --> 00:10:14.720 news cycle on this and say, hey, look, we are 158 00:10:16.039 --> 00:10:19.190 conducting oversight over ICE agents because they're There have been 159 00:10:19.210 --> 00:10:21.769 a couple incidents like this where we've seen ICE agents 160 00:10:21.850 --> 00:10:26.669 exaggerated the events happening around arrests. There was one earlier 161 00:10:26.730 --> 00:10:30.549 this year that I talked about where there was a man, 162 00:10:30.570 --> 00:10:35.409 an illegal alien arrested in Texas who resisted arrest with violence. 163 00:10:35.970 --> 00:10:40.330 But the ICE agents reporting basically made him out to, like, 164 00:10:40.389 --> 00:10:45.039 be a terrorist, a domestic terrorist, you know. At the time, 165 00:10:45.320 --> 00:10:47.419 I said, I think this is undermining the credibility of 166 00:10:47.600 --> 00:10:50.610 ICE when they're conducting these operations. This might be a 167 00:10:50.659 --> 00:10:53.669 response to that by the Trump administration to try to 168 00:10:53.730 --> 00:10:59.870 mitigate that happening by charging Castro and also avoid the 169 00:10:59.950 --> 00:11:00.870 civil rights charges. 170 00:11:01.970 --> 00:11:04.039 Well, I think it's also an important signal from the 171 00:11:04.080 --> 00:11:09.700 Trump administration to ICE, to CBP, which is that there 172 00:11:09.860 --> 00:11:13.659 are absolutely limits. You can't just You can't just break 173 00:11:13.679 --> 00:11:15.500 the law. Even if you're an ICE agent and you're 174 00:11:15.570 --> 00:11:18.649 on duty and you're pursuing a fleeing felon, you still 175 00:11:18.690 --> 00:11:20.950 have to follow the law. And it certainly appears that 176 00:11:21.409 --> 00:11:26.210 Agent Castro, it appears that he's misrepresented the actions that 177 00:11:26.269 --> 00:11:31.090 led to his officer-involved shooting. Now, moving forward here, the 178 00:11:31.210 --> 00:11:35.230 Trump administration announced the launch of Foundry School, a training 179 00:11:35.269 --> 00:11:39.830 program for engineers, technicians, and industrial leaders to build an 180 00:11:39.889 --> 00:11:44.799 American manufacturing workforce. The Foundry School program will be hosted 181 00:11:44.850 --> 00:11:50.570 by Stanford University beginning in January 2027 and host U.S. 182 00:11:50.690 --> 00:11:56.830 and foreign students from the Trump administration's Pax Silica Partnership program. Robert, 183 00:11:56.909 --> 00:12:00.529 I'm actually not familiar with the Pax Silica program. I 184 00:12:00.570 --> 00:12:03.779 know that our listeners probably think that we know everything here, 185 00:12:03.840 --> 00:12:07.220 but I don't know what Pax Silica is. Remind me, 186 00:12:07.299 --> 00:12:09.779 what is that and how does it fit into the 187 00:12:09.899 --> 00:12:12.299 grand strategy of the Trump administration? 188 00:12:12.769 --> 00:12:17.429 So Pax Silica is basically an international strategic initiative. The 189 00:12:17.470 --> 00:12:22.820 idea is to secure supply chain, global supply chains, specifically 190 00:12:22.879 --> 00:12:27.740 for the advancement of AI. And so that means like industry, semiconductors, 191 00:12:28.240 --> 00:12:32.279 electrical equipment. And as far as how this fits into 192 00:12:32.299 --> 00:12:34.850 the Trump grant strategy, if we look at the list 193 00:12:34.889 --> 00:12:38.730 of countries here that are provided in the report at 194 00:12:38.750 --> 00:12:44.289 the State Department announcement, This includes South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, 195 00:12:44.330 --> 00:12:46.909 and India. And those are all countries, I think, as 196 00:12:47.009 --> 00:12:49.330 we were discussing before the show, Jared pointed out, they 197 00:12:49.389 --> 00:12:52.580 all have beefs with China. And I think this is, 198 00:12:52.980 --> 00:12:54.659 to me, this looks likely to be part of the 199 00:12:54.740 --> 00:12:59.299 larger Trump administration grand strategy to economically isolate China. And 200 00:12:59.340 --> 00:13:02.399 when we talked about this the other day, I pointed 201 00:13:02.539 --> 00:13:07.250 out that really you can't extricate supply chains and geography. 202 00:13:07.679 --> 00:13:10.169 In this case, they're doing the same thing here. They're 203 00:13:11.139 --> 00:13:13.820 What this program sounds like to me is there are 204 00:13:13.840 --> 00:13:16.419 going to be U.S. students there, and this is more 205 00:13:16.460 --> 00:13:18.740 like a professional program. This isn't really like a college 206 00:13:19.399 --> 00:13:22.960 degree program. And they're bringing guys to build up U.S. 207 00:13:22.980 --> 00:13:26.840 supply chains domestically, but also foreign partners to then return 208 00:13:26.879 --> 00:13:29.580 those students back to those countries to build up their 209 00:13:29.759 --> 00:13:32.700 own supply chains, secure their own supply chains, and build 210 00:13:32.740 --> 00:13:36.330 up their own reindustrialization with the idea that this is, 211 00:13:36.730 --> 00:13:42.090 I think, the intent to bolster this strategy to isolate China. 212 00:13:44.129 --> 00:13:49.610 Now, didn't TSMC have some sort of partnership program here 213 00:13:49.669 --> 00:13:53.629 in the United States where they sent over various high-level, 214 00:13:53.730 --> 00:13:57.970 highly skilled technicians and engineers to train the U.S. workforce 215 00:13:58.009 --> 00:14:02.580 to operate the semiconductor fabrication here in the United States? 216 00:14:02.740 --> 00:14:06.879 Does this foundry school sound like it's a similar, perhaps 217 00:14:06.919 --> 00:14:10.379 an expansion? of the arrangement that the United States had 218 00:14:10.419 --> 00:14:13.039 with TSMC on chip manufacturing. 219 00:14:13.639 --> 00:14:15.639 Yeah, because this goes beyond, this seems to be, to 220 00:14:15.679 --> 00:14:19.840 go beyond just semiconductors. Like, this is much more broad. 221 00:14:21.159 --> 00:14:22.179 Okay, now, excellent. 222 00:14:22.220 --> 00:14:25.850 Now, let's move over to Homeland Operations. The Department of 223 00:14:25.909 --> 00:14:32.029 Homeland Security said ICE conducted 50,915 immigration arrests throughout the 224 00:14:32.070 --> 00:14:35.610 United States in August, setting a new record. Now, DHS 225 00:14:35.629 --> 00:14:38.610 said this is the second time consecutive month of more 226 00:14:38.649 --> 00:14:43.110 than 50,000 arrests by ICE. Robert, is this the result 227 00:14:43.769 --> 00:14:46.690 of the 287G agreements coming into effect? 228 00:14:48.389 --> 00:14:51.620 Not quite, I don't think. And so we've seen this 229 00:14:51.659 --> 00:14:55.039 massive expansion of the 287G program, but they still account 230 00:14:55.100 --> 00:14:58.139 for a small number of the arrests every month. And 231 00:14:58.220 --> 00:15:00.200 I think that's because there's going to be a time 232 00:15:00.240 --> 00:15:03.870 lag between when the agreements are signed between DHS and 233 00:15:05.629 --> 00:15:08.330 And the local and state law enforcement agencies, because they've 234 00:15:08.370 --> 00:15:13.129 expanded from they've expanded like almost 200 percent, I think, 235 00:15:13.190 --> 00:15:18.120 since January. They're up to over 2200 agreements now. And 236 00:15:18.980 --> 00:15:21.240 I think there's a time like that because when they 237 00:15:21.340 --> 00:15:26.100 when they're putting in these agreements, eventually, like after the 238 00:15:26.120 --> 00:15:28.559 agreement is signed, then then those local or state officers 239 00:15:28.580 --> 00:15:31.419 have to be sent off to a training program, sometimes 240 00:15:31.480 --> 00:15:37.110 at FLETC. And then they can begin enforcing federal immigration 241 00:15:37.149 --> 00:15:44.690 law under these different models of 287G. I think as 242 00:15:44.750 --> 00:15:49.139 we see that happening over the next few months, we're 243 00:15:49.159 --> 00:15:51.480 going to see the number of arrests coming out of 244 00:15:52.200 --> 00:15:56.740 287G increasing, which means overall the arrest numbers are going 245 00:15:56.759 --> 00:15:59.340 to increase because there's still only a small portion of 246 00:15:59.379 --> 00:16:04.159 the total monthly immigration arrests. So the two data points 247 00:16:04.200 --> 00:16:06.779 are not a trend, obviously, as far as setting a 248 00:16:06.820 --> 00:16:10.879 new floor. But so far, above 50,000 for two months 249 00:16:10.899 --> 00:16:12.919 in a row. And I think they could be setting 250 00:16:12.940 --> 00:16:15.879 a new floor for immigration arrest numbers, especially as those 251 00:16:16.500 --> 00:16:19.509 287G partnership programs become operational. 252 00:16:20.750 --> 00:16:22.450 I don't want to beat a dead horse here, Robert. 253 00:16:22.490 --> 00:16:25.610 But just to be clear, you're saying that you believe 254 00:16:25.629 --> 00:16:29.620 your analysis is that How many– first of all, how 255 00:16:29.659 --> 00:16:32.600 many 287G agreements does the United States have right now? 256 00:16:33.580 --> 00:16:36.870 I think it's over 2,200. I'd have to double-check the 257 00:16:36.889 --> 00:16:37.470 website again. 258 00:16:44.960 --> 00:16:49.080 Effectively they haven't begun full operations yet because of just 259 00:16:49.120 --> 00:16:53.250 plumbing problems in that the local law enforcement agencies, they 260 00:16:53.279 --> 00:16:56.179 haven't conducted all the paperwork, all the training that they 261 00:16:56.210 --> 00:17:03.870 need to begin law enforcement immigration enforcement at the local level. 262 00:17:04.089 --> 00:17:07.890 So you're saying that this $ 50, 000 could easily be exceeded 263 00:17:08.190 --> 00:17:11.829 once all the 287G agreements are in effect? 264 00:17:12.490 --> 00:17:16.220 I think so. Because when we published the numbers last 265 00:17:16.299 --> 00:17:21.700 month on Florida, for example, almost half of the agencies 266 00:17:21.779 --> 00:17:25.440 with 287G agreements had conducted zero arrests yet. So some 267 00:17:25.460 --> 00:17:29.569 of these programs have had officers go off to the 268 00:17:29.609 --> 00:17:32.269 training and they are currently active. But I think that 269 00:17:32.329 --> 00:17:36.170 points to that some of the programs, possibly a lot 270 00:17:36.190 --> 00:17:38.589 of the new ones that have been signed this year, 271 00:17:39.099 --> 00:17:43.940 have not yet become operational. And then that's also not– 272 00:17:44.140 --> 00:17:47.109 there's also the potential that they're undercounting those arrests because 273 00:17:47.140 --> 00:17:51.009 I know that's happened here in Florida with individual agencies 274 00:17:51.150 --> 00:17:57.009 with these 287G programs where the arrests were initially undercounted. Okay. 275 00:17:57.049 --> 00:18:00.890 Now, Robert, that will actually wrap up domestic reporting for today. 276 00:18:00.910 --> 00:18:03.250 I'd like to ask you to stay on for global. 277 00:18:03.289 --> 00:18:07.430 Bring Jared in here. Good morning again, Jared. Now, let's 278 00:18:07.470 --> 00:18:09.160 talk about Germany. We talked about it earlier this week. 279 00:18:11.049 --> 00:18:16.450 Police are investigating a new series of improvised rocket devices 280 00:18:16.730 --> 00:18:21.380 near Dusseldorf, Germany. The devices were designed to short out 281 00:18:21.740 --> 00:18:24.859 high-voltage power transmission lines. Here in the United States, we 282 00:18:24.880 --> 00:18:30.319 call them high-tension power lines. This is the third incident 283 00:18:30.539 --> 00:18:33.859 this week. Now, the rocket is designed to overfly the 284 00:18:33.920 --> 00:18:37.130 power lines here. with a trailing wire that when it 285 00:18:37.160 --> 00:18:42.190 comes into contact with various electrical lines, it short-circuits the system. Robert, 286 00:18:42.269 --> 00:18:45.089 as a GWAT veteran, where have we seen this type 287 00:18:45.130 --> 00:18:46.450 of TTP before? 288 00:18:47.109 --> 00:18:50.430 Well, this tactic, technique, and procedure was very common during GWAT, 289 00:18:50.519 --> 00:18:54.680 during the Global War on Terror, in that insurgents would 290 00:18:54.759 --> 00:19:01.259 set timed launch devices for basically improvised indirect fire, and 291 00:19:01.440 --> 00:19:04.880 that would allow them to set a weapon system, whatever 292 00:19:04.920 --> 00:19:09.940 type of improvised rocket or mortar or non-improvised military rocket 293 00:19:09.980 --> 00:19:13.990 or mortar, and leave the area ahead of the launch. 294 00:19:14.309 --> 00:19:17.130 And then so when they did launch, whenever counter-battery fire 295 00:19:17.170 --> 00:19:19.789 came in or there was some type of response, like 296 00:19:19.910 --> 00:19:22.789 quick reaction force response, they wouldn't be there to be killed. 297 00:19:24.549 --> 00:19:28.950 Absolutely. Now, for our listeners, I actually came across this 298 00:19:29.009 --> 00:19:35.210 tactic technique procedure in Afghanistan myself. Where Afghan insurgents had 299 00:19:35.309 --> 00:19:40.339 set up rockets on a hillside targeting the camp I 300 00:19:40.359 --> 00:19:43.180 was at out in the sticks. And it was exactly 301 00:19:43.220 --> 00:19:46.150 what you just talked about. It was rockets with these 302 00:19:46.250 --> 00:19:50.980 improvised tripods, a car battery and rockets. an egg timer, 303 00:19:51.119 --> 00:19:55.480 a kitchen timer. All of this was wired together, and fortunately, 304 00:19:55.920 --> 00:20:00.319 some of our Afghan partner security forces were able to 305 00:20:00.440 --> 00:20:03.019 find this before it went off. We sent out EOD guys, 306 00:20:03.359 --> 00:20:06.369 and that's how they disarmed them, and that's how I 307 00:20:06.410 --> 00:20:09.660 was able to actually really see the nuts and bolts 308 00:20:09.700 --> 00:20:13.140 of this so it's it's pretty interesting that you know 309 00:20:13.160 --> 00:20:16.480 this ttp has traveled from the global war on terror 310 00:20:16.799 --> 00:20:19.660 to domestically in germany and i just want to be 311 00:20:19.759 --> 00:20:23.740 clear here for the listeners that while the improvised rockets 312 00:20:24.059 --> 00:20:26.960 have been something that we've seen before i am not 313 00:20:27.029 --> 00:20:31.690 aware of this specific ttp with the utilization of the 314 00:20:31.809 --> 00:20:35.190 wire the the conductive wire i assume it was they 315 00:20:35.210 --> 00:20:37.630 don't say in the german reporting i'm assuming it's copper 316 00:20:38.369 --> 00:20:42.049 the copper wire to short out the electrical high tension 317 00:20:42.089 --> 00:20:46.779 power lines. Now, attacking the lines instead of the substation 318 00:20:47.220 --> 00:20:52.160 defeats perimeter security. No amount of hardening the electrical substations, 319 00:20:52.180 --> 00:20:56.000 the transformers, is going to prevent this type of attack 320 00:20:56.039 --> 00:20:59.160 that we're seeing in Germany now several times this week. Now, 321 00:20:59.259 --> 00:21:04.769 even if the groups doing the operation are motivated by 322 00:21:04.829 --> 00:21:08.410 beliefs about climate change, which is what is being currently 323 00:21:08.470 --> 00:21:12.390 reported in German media, it is a known technique for 324 00:21:12.509 --> 00:21:16.859 foreign intelligence services to use cutouts and proxies for their 325 00:21:16.960 --> 00:21:21.500 own goals. Now, Russian involvement is assessed with moderate confidence 326 00:21:21.619 --> 00:21:27.339 as likely here due to German support for the Ukraine conflict. Now, Robert, 327 00:21:28.279 --> 00:21:35.490 are you familiar with this type of cutout operation historically 328 00:21:35.569 --> 00:21:38.660 by intelligence services? What's another example of this? 329 00:21:40.259 --> 00:21:42.220 Well, in the United States, and this was pointed out 330 00:21:42.240 --> 00:21:44.299 in the Cuba report from the State Department, is that 331 00:21:44.720 --> 00:21:49.119 the Soviet Union was using, in Cuba, were using domestic 332 00:21:49.140 --> 00:21:52.900 political movements here, like the Black Nationalist movements, in order 333 00:21:52.980 --> 00:21:57.460 to affect their own political strategies to undermine the United 334 00:21:57.500 --> 00:22:01.069 States foreign policy. There's one other thing to point out here. 335 00:22:02.069 --> 00:22:07.960 If this could be a just a domestic German far-left 336 00:22:08.019 --> 00:22:11.380 group doing their own thing. In Europe, the far-left groups 337 00:22:11.420 --> 00:22:14.180 are much more militant than here in the United States. 338 00:22:14.960 --> 00:22:18.869 Especially Greece is one big area where the far-left is 339 00:22:19.289 --> 00:22:23.309 very aggressive. But historically, it's not unusual, especially during the 340 00:22:23.329 --> 00:22:26.789 Cold War, for these far-left groups, like the Red Brigades 341 00:22:27.470 --> 00:22:33.509 and the different movements in France, in Spain, in Germany, 342 00:22:33.710 --> 00:22:37.059 in the U.K., to travel to the Middle East and 343 00:22:37.099 --> 00:22:41.180 have some interaction with what we now consider Islamist groups, 344 00:22:41.319 --> 00:22:46.789 which a lot of these, like the Palestinian Liberation Organization, 345 00:22:47.140 --> 00:22:50.789 the PLFP Popular Front or PFLP Popular Front for the 346 00:22:50.869 --> 00:22:53.930 Liberation of Palestine, they started out as explicitly leftist groups. 347 00:22:53.970 --> 00:22:59.809 So there was, it is possible that this group may 348 00:22:59.849 --> 00:23:03.730 have picked up this technique from some other type of training. 349 00:23:04.490 --> 00:23:08.769 that they are using for their own domestic objectives. Historically, 350 00:23:08.809 --> 00:23:12.470 that is not unusual for the far left groups in 351 00:23:12.549 --> 00:23:14.450 Europe to travel to the Middle East for training. 352 00:23:15.730 --> 00:23:20.109 Now, Robert, as impactful as it is what the motivation 353 00:23:20.430 --> 00:23:23.450 of these attackers are and where they got their training, 354 00:23:23.609 --> 00:23:26.809 I think another point of view here is the bigger picture. 355 00:23:27.470 --> 00:23:31.839 which is because the method has now been publicized, security 356 00:23:31.900 --> 00:23:35.420 professionals in the United States and around the world, but 357 00:23:35.500 --> 00:23:38.500 since our audience is primarily in the United States, security 358 00:23:38.539 --> 00:23:42.029 professionals here need to update their threat scenarios for the U.S. 359 00:23:42.069 --> 00:23:44.569 power grid, which is something that we talk about here 360 00:23:44.650 --> 00:23:48.109 quite a bit. Now, thank you, Robert. That'll actually wrap 361 00:23:48.269 --> 00:23:51.599 your section up today. Jared, what news do we have 362 00:23:51.779 --> 00:23:53.740 coming concerning Iran? 363 00:23:56.279 --> 00:23:59.900 Almost got myself. All right, so a couple big pieces 364 00:23:59.960 --> 00:24:00.319 out of Iran. 365 00:24:00.339 --> 00:24:03.400 So last night, Treasury Secretary Besant reported that the European 366 00:24:03.500 --> 00:24:07.539 Union has joined Operation Economic Outcast in order to economically 367 00:24:07.680 --> 00:24:11.200 isolate Iran. Anonymous sources in South Korea report that South 368 00:24:11.259 --> 00:24:14.250 Korea is preparing to send logistic ships and maritime patrol 369 00:24:14.309 --> 00:24:16.630 aircraft to support the U.S. 's efforts in the start 370 00:24:16.650 --> 00:24:20.190 of war moves. However, the South Korean presidential office did 371 00:24:20.289 --> 00:24:24.220 say that they denied the claim, uh, but they are 372 00:24:24.259 --> 00:24:26.799 in discussions to find out how they can contribute to 373 00:24:26.839 --> 00:24:29.349 restoring peace and stability in the Middle East and inside 374 00:24:29.369 --> 00:24:31.730 the street. That's a direct quote from their presidential office. 375 00:24:33.410 --> 00:24:37.970 And additionally, Peru, rather low level, but it is important 376 00:24:37.990 --> 00:24:42.240 to note that Peru severed relations with Iran. Now, I 377 00:24:42.259 --> 00:24:45.400 think all this is pointing towards the ally, pointing towards 378 00:24:45.420 --> 00:24:48.400 something significant here. The allies joining in against Iran is 379 00:24:48.420 --> 00:24:51.539 an indicator that the U.S. 's international influence remains strong 380 00:24:51.640 --> 00:24:54.660 despite the the unending reports that the U S allies 381 00:24:54.720 --> 00:25:00.509 are going their own way or even joining China. Uh, additionally, uh, 382 00:25:00.569 --> 00:25:03.369 vice president Vance held a press conference yesterday. And in it, 383 00:25:03.430 --> 00:25:05.670 he stated that the Gulf Arab States have been quote, 384 00:25:05.789 --> 00:25:08.869 begging the United States to continue operations in the Strait 385 00:25:08.890 --> 00:25:11.690 of Hormuz, because if the U S were to leave, 386 00:25:12.190 --> 00:25:14.799 it would lead to a worldwide energy crisis. And that 387 00:25:14.819 --> 00:25:17.660 was basically anytime he touched on the Strait of Hormuz, which. 388 00:25:17.680 --> 00:25:20.299 Uh, let me pull that back up for you guys. 389 00:25:20.660 --> 00:25:20.930 Here we go. 390 00:25:21.319 --> 00:25:25.470 Uh, He did bring on that if the U.S. had 391 00:25:25.490 --> 00:25:28.599 done nothing, this would have led to a worldwide energy crisis. 392 00:25:29.380 --> 00:25:34.539 Vance refused to commit to any timeline on when retaliatory 393 00:25:34.579 --> 00:25:38.559 strikes and a naval escort would end because he said 394 00:25:38.579 --> 00:25:43.059 that depends solely on when the Iranians stop shooting ships. Ultimately, 395 00:25:43.079 --> 00:25:46.569 I do think that this is heading towards what I've 396 00:25:46.609 --> 00:25:50.609 assessed here as will be the new normal where Basically, 397 00:25:50.700 --> 00:25:56.509 along the Iranian coast, there are nuisance strikes against commercial shipping, 398 00:25:56.589 --> 00:26:01.670 and that will result in a coalition anti-piracy effort. 399 00:26:03.690 --> 00:26:04.069 Okay. 400 00:26:04.509 --> 00:26:08.930 Now, Jared, moving over to South America for a moment, 401 00:26:09.009 --> 00:26:11.529