1
00:00:00,360 --> 00:00:02,879
Speaker 1: We have a massive bubble inequities and it has to

2
00:00:02,879 --> 00:00:05,559
be reconciled. And there's only two ways that can be reconciled.

3
00:00:05,919 --> 00:00:09,720
Stocks go nowhere for about ten years and GDP and

4
00:00:09,800 --> 00:00:13,080
incomes catch up, or the stock market has to crash.

5
00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:14,679
It's the only two ways that is going to happen.

6
00:00:14,759 --> 00:00:16,879
And I've never seen a bubble. I've never read about

7
00:00:16,920 --> 00:00:19,839
a bubble. I've never witnessed a bubble. I've never experienced

8
00:00:19,839 --> 00:00:21,480
the bubble or heard a rumor about a bubble that

9
00:00:21,519 --> 00:00:24,800
burst innocuously. They all crash and this one is a

10
00:00:24,800 --> 00:00:25,640
gigantic one.

11
00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:29,679
Speaker 2: You're listening to Carrie Let'sa's Financial Survival Network where you

12
00:00:29,679 --> 00:00:33,640
get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else to

13
00:00:33,799 --> 00:00:37,840
thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival

14
00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:42,600
Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot

15
00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:46,960
com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival

16
00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:49,920
Network now more than ever.

17
00:00:53,200 --> 00:00:57,280
Speaker 3: And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial

18
00:00:57,320 --> 00:01:01,960
Survival Network. We've got America's number one pickle ball warrior

19
00:01:02,039 --> 00:01:08,439
with us today, Michael Pentopento port dot com. Michael treats

20
00:01:08,480 --> 00:01:11,840
the markets like they were just another game. Of pickleball,

21
00:01:12,400 --> 00:01:15,680
and usually he wins. That's why you need to listen

22
00:01:15,719 --> 00:01:20,280
to him. Michael, your recent commentary describes the US economy

23
00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:25,519
as approaching a historic reckoning. This was in your November

24
00:01:25,599 --> 00:01:30,480
seventh piece. Could you simmer summarize please what you see

25
00:01:30,599 --> 00:01:36,040
as the core reckoning and the variables involved in it.

26
00:01:36,719 --> 00:01:39,879
Speaker 1: Okay, the profession I was right, I'll try to do

27
00:01:40,040 --> 00:01:43,599
that for you. Well, first of all, you know, I've

28
00:01:43,599 --> 00:01:46,319
been saying now for the several years, and I'm sure

29
00:01:46,319 --> 00:01:50,120
I'm being derided in many different venues that we have

30
00:01:50,159 --> 00:01:53,480
a triumvit of bubbles existing concurrently. So I kind of

31
00:01:53,480 --> 00:01:56,760
feel like Alan Greenspan with his o rational exuberant speech

32
00:01:56,760 --> 00:01:59,439
in ninety six. Well you know it took three years

33
00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:03,200
or four years for that to planet pan out. So yeah,

34
00:02:03,239 --> 00:02:06,439
we have the biggest the three bubbles ever in existence

35
00:02:07,159 --> 00:02:09,639
in US history, and they all exist together for the

36
00:02:09,680 --> 00:02:17,719
first time, so credit, real estate, and equities. And I

37
00:02:17,719 --> 00:02:20,080
got to tell you what happened today, So you have

38
00:02:20,360 --> 00:02:22,759
you know you guy, a guy named Jensen Wong coming

39
00:02:22,800 --> 00:02:26,319
out and giving a beats the street, and the Wall

40
00:02:26,360 --> 00:02:29,080
Street sends the stock up to the moon, and the

41
00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:31,400
market was up almost like two percent. When I left

42
00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:34,240
this morning for my pickupball imagine, and I come back

43
00:02:34,280 --> 00:02:38,439
and it's down. Uh, Nvidia is down one percent as

44
00:02:38,479 --> 00:02:40,680
as I'm talking, you know, before right before I got

45
00:02:40,719 --> 00:02:44,000
on the on the interview with you. You know when

46
00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:48,280
it's when the CEO comes out and says that orders

47
00:02:48,280 --> 00:02:51,080
first chips are off the charts in a prepared statement

48
00:02:51,240 --> 00:02:53,919
for his earnings release. It's just it's just like, am

49
00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:56,240
I dealing What am I dealing with anymore? We're just

50
00:02:56,719 --> 00:02:58,840
we live in a world of carnival barkers, and it's

51
00:02:58,840 --> 00:03:02,599
a freak show out there. It's not just in corporations.

52
00:03:02,680 --> 00:03:05,520
It's even in the government where we were giving dividends

53
00:03:05,599 --> 00:03:10,360
to people from tariffs which are being repealed as we speak.

54
00:03:10,919 --> 00:03:15,639
You know, we have tariffs on on cocoa beans and bananas,

55
00:03:16,280 --> 00:03:18,680
which we don't grow in the United States. We're supposed

56
00:03:18,680 --> 00:03:22,159
to have tariffs to help rebuild the American middle class

57
00:03:22,159 --> 00:03:26,599
and manufacturing base, but we have tariffs on bananas. Doesn't

58
00:03:26,599 --> 00:03:28,599
make any sense. So the tariffs are going on bananas,

59
00:03:28,599 --> 00:03:30,000
but the tariff revenue is going to go on the

60
00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:33,599
bananas too. And it's funny thing is we're talking about

61
00:03:33,680 --> 00:03:38,039
sending two thousand dollars stimulus checks to people, and that's

62
00:03:38,039 --> 00:03:39,639
supposed to be like a dividend payment. But we have

63
00:03:39,680 --> 00:03:41,120
one point eight trillion dollar deficit.

64
00:03:42,199 --> 00:03:44,199
Speaker 3: It doesn't make sense time, But it doesn't make matter.

65
00:03:44,360 --> 00:03:46,759
Speaker 1: I mean, from whence and from where are you getting

66
00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:49,120
your money from? If we if we have one hundred

67
00:03:49,120 --> 00:03:51,560
and twenty four percent debt to GDP thirty eight trillion

68
00:03:51,599 --> 00:03:54,840
dollars national debt and it's growing by two trillion dollars

69
00:03:55,039 --> 00:03:57,520
per annum, and you're sending out a dividend. No, what

70
00:03:57,560 --> 00:04:00,000
you're doing is sending more helicopter money out. But people

71
00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:02,280
or people say what they want now, they say that,

72
00:04:02,319 --> 00:04:06,400
they say that the demand is off the charts, Which

73
00:04:06,400 --> 00:04:08,439
doesn't you sound like a Charlotte. He's like a Carnival

74
00:04:08,439 --> 00:04:12,159
barker when you say that. And yeah, yeah, you have

75
00:04:12,199 --> 00:04:14,560
a government that says that we're sending out you know,

76
00:04:14,759 --> 00:04:17,079
we're giving you a refund check from the revenue from

77
00:04:17,079 --> 00:04:19,759
all the revenue from tariffs, which the tariff revenue was

78
00:04:19,759 --> 00:04:23,399
supposed to pay down a deficit, bring it to zero

79
00:04:23,519 --> 00:04:26,000
and then hopefully start paying down the national debt. Well,

80
00:04:26,360 --> 00:04:30,519
is that happen here? You get the truth here. None

81
00:04:30,519 --> 00:04:32,120
of those things are even close to happening.

82
00:04:32,720 --> 00:04:33,879
Speaker 4: That is exactly it.

83
00:04:33,959 --> 00:04:39,519
Speaker 3: It's just like a tax rebate, but they call it

84
00:04:39,519 --> 00:04:43,240
a tariff rebate. And look, we've got to I don't

85
00:04:43,279 --> 00:04:47,240
remember how much international trade. We do, something like twenty

86
00:04:47,319 --> 00:04:52,920
something trillion. But if you were even to say, you know,

87
00:04:53,279 --> 00:04:56,160
a ten percent, we were getting a three percent tariff.

88
00:04:56,199 --> 00:04:59,839
If it went up to ten we'd take in two trillion.

89
00:05:00,399 --> 00:05:04,120
Which you know what happens though, is you don't really

90
00:05:04,160 --> 00:05:09,600
take it in because people find substitutes and they find

91
00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:10,920
workarounds right.

92
00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:13,319
Speaker 1: Well, And the big work around from Liberation Day on

93
00:05:13,360 --> 00:05:16,319
April second was we're gonna have massive tariffs on the

94
00:05:16,360 --> 00:05:17,959
rest of the world, and we're going to rebuild the

95
00:05:17,959 --> 00:05:20,800
Americans manufacturing base. And then when the market crashed like

96
00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:24,399
twenty percent in a few days, we've been walking that back.

97
00:05:24,439 --> 00:05:26,639
We've been doing the moonwalk on that ever since. So

98
00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:30,319
the tower for revenue is gonna be very minimal, and

99
00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:31,879
the debt and deficits are.

100
00:05:31,759 --> 00:05:32,360
Speaker 3: Going to go higher.

101
00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:34,720
Speaker 1: And hire we have a central bank too that you know,

102
00:05:35,560 --> 00:05:38,399
they're trying to reach two percent inflation. By the way,

103
00:05:39,240 --> 00:05:44,439
that's now stable prices. It's not you it's two, So

104
00:05:44,519 --> 00:05:46,399
you can't reach two for four and a half years.

105
00:05:46,399 --> 00:05:47,839
So what do you do when you can't reach two

106
00:05:47,839 --> 00:05:51,000
after four and a half years. We ignore inflation, and

107
00:05:51,040 --> 00:05:53,680
then that would be bad enough. They're not even ignoring

108
00:05:53,720 --> 00:05:56,839
it now. They're going to go back into QI and

109
00:05:56,839 --> 00:05:59,079
start low and they're lowering. They're in the process of

110
00:05:59,120 --> 00:06:02,600
lowering interest rates. You know that, right, Sure, you can't

111
00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:05,519
make If you can't make your two percent inflation target

112
00:06:05,959 --> 00:06:08,000
and you miss it to the upside by fifty percent,

113
00:06:08,079 --> 00:06:10,439
what do you do, well, you start cutting rais and

114
00:06:10,480 --> 00:06:11,120
printing money.

115
00:06:12,079 --> 00:06:12,319
Speaker 3: Yeah.

116
00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:14,600
Speaker 1: I feel like I'm in bizarro land here. This is

117
00:06:14,639 --> 00:06:18,720
just and nobody tells the truth anymore, whether whether it's

118
00:06:18,839 --> 00:06:22,680
you know, orders of orders are vendor financing orders are

119
00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:25,079
going through the roof off, the throw off the charts,

120
00:06:25,560 --> 00:06:28,879
and we're sending out rebate checks to people because now, well,

121
00:06:28,920 --> 00:06:31,040
this is the greatest country the planet has ever seen.

122
00:06:32,199 --> 00:06:35,800
But in the meantime, the red ink is spewing, you know,

123
00:06:35,920 --> 00:06:37,279
over the damn walls.

124
00:06:37,839 --> 00:06:39,279
Speaker 4: Yeah, I want to correct myself.

125
00:06:39,560 --> 00:06:45,560
Speaker 3: Our annual import tab is four point one trillion. It's

126
00:06:45,600 --> 00:06:50,439
actually higher than that because that doesn't include illegal imports

127
00:06:50,839 --> 00:06:52,879
and a lot of stuff that was going through the

128
00:06:52,920 --> 00:06:57,600
deminimous exemption. Even if it was five trillion and you

129
00:06:57,720 --> 00:07:01,759
managed to do a twenty percent tariff, that's only a trillion.

130
00:07:02,800 --> 00:07:08,800
And then we still have the issue of of substitutions

131
00:07:08,879 --> 00:07:13,319
and and workarounds and all of that. So there's no

132
00:07:13,439 --> 00:07:17,839
way that the revenue from tariffs could have ever ever

133
00:07:18,199 --> 00:07:22,120
made up for the US trade deficit.

134
00:07:20,680 --> 00:07:22,480
Speaker 4: That's right.

135
00:07:22,879 --> 00:07:25,120
Speaker 1: Well, tariffs have been in place now for a few

136
00:07:25,319 --> 00:07:27,720
for a few months now at least, and we still

137
00:07:27,759 --> 00:07:30,920
have a one point eight trillion dollar national annual deficit,

138
00:07:30,959 --> 00:07:35,040
annual deficit. So you know, the revenue isn't there. And

139
00:07:35,079 --> 00:07:37,399
if the revenue isn't there, and were you giving back

140
00:07:37,439 --> 00:07:42,160
to people, you're you're just deficits. You're doing the same thing, Kerrie.

141
00:07:42,600 --> 00:07:45,399
What caused the massive inflation that we had post COVID

142
00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:48,600
was helicopter money. You went around, you bail out the

143
00:07:48,600 --> 00:07:50,839
banking system. You went around the banking system and sent

144
00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:53,920
checks directly to people and they went out and spent

145
00:07:53,959 --> 00:07:57,040
the money. So it was it was an automatic, huge

146
00:07:57,040 --> 00:08:00,959
increase in the broad based money supply. Seeing too few goods,

147
00:08:00,959 --> 00:08:03,720
and we had inflation bottlenecks. You know, you remember it

148
00:08:03,759 --> 00:08:06,680
was twenty percent inflation the way the way they the

149
00:08:06,680 --> 00:08:08,560
way they counted was nine. It was really twenty.

150
00:08:09,639 --> 00:08:12,399
Speaker 3: And the thing that bothers me about the whole thing

151
00:08:12,519 --> 00:08:17,560
is that the inflation we had was equal parts Trump

152
00:08:17,959 --> 00:08:21,800
and Biden. All Right, Trump was as responsible for it

153
00:08:21,839 --> 00:08:25,439
as Biden, but Trump got to leave office, so Biden

154
00:08:25,560 --> 00:08:28,800
got the entire responsibility for it.

155
00:08:28,839 --> 00:08:32,600
Speaker 1: But the Trump at least Trump had an excuse.

156
00:08:32,639 --> 00:08:32,879
Speaker 3: He had.

157
00:08:32,919 --> 00:08:34,600
Speaker 1: You know, we had the COVID crisis. I mean, the

158
00:08:34,639 --> 00:08:37,720
COVID was over. Why it was, But now what's the

159
00:08:37,879 --> 00:08:40,360
what's the excuse now? And the greatest economy the world

160
00:08:40,399 --> 00:08:42,679
has ever seen? Why are we sending rebate checks out?

161
00:08:42,879 --> 00:08:45,399
I mean, I'm all for cutting taxes, it's a wonderful thing,

162
00:08:45,799 --> 00:08:49,679
but you're you disrupted the whole world and the markets

163
00:08:49,720 --> 00:08:53,039
with with these tariff bs, and now you're trying to

164
00:08:53,039 --> 00:08:56,159
send that money back to them. It doesn't make any

165
00:08:56,200 --> 00:08:57,679
sense to me. You know what you want to do,

166
00:08:57,919 --> 00:09:00,360
Here's what I would do. I would cut taxes and

167
00:09:00,440 --> 00:09:06,519
cut spending commensurately, so you starve and kill the cancer

168
00:09:06,679 --> 00:09:10,519
known as government. Thank you, Ronald Reagan, and you empower

169
00:09:10,600 --> 00:09:13,720
the people. But we're not doing that. But we're not

170
00:09:13,759 --> 00:09:14,039
doing that.

171
00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:19,759
Speaker 3: And that was why initially DOGE seemed really hopeful. And

172
00:09:19,840 --> 00:09:23,559
I think DOGE is still working behind the scenes because

173
00:09:23,919 --> 00:09:27,200
they made a claim it's coming up now that they

174
00:09:27,279 --> 00:09:32,639
plan to using the doge AI tool cut fifty percent

175
00:09:32,720 --> 00:09:36,919
of all the government regulations, which are outmoded. A lot

176
00:09:36,960 --> 00:09:40,879
of them now are illegal due to recent court case developments.

177
00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:47,600
What happens if they cut half the government regulations out there, Michael.

178
00:09:46,200 --> 00:09:49,279
Speaker 1: That would be wonderful. That would be a huge boon

179
00:09:49,320 --> 00:09:51,600
to the private sector. Let's see if it happens.

180
00:09:53,200 --> 00:09:53,399
Speaker 3: You know.

181
00:09:53,399 --> 00:09:55,639
Speaker 1: In the meantime, we have let's talk about the credit

182
00:09:55,639 --> 00:09:58,080
bubble that we have. I mean, let's talk about live

183
00:09:58,080 --> 00:10:00,200
in the real world with AI. I mean, do just

184
00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:02,440
been ran out of Dodge for the most part, remember dozs,

185
00:10:02,440 --> 00:10:06,399
those of the last cover in the Then the the

186
00:10:06,440 --> 00:10:08,639
courts say, well, you can't fire anybody, you know, it's

187
00:10:08,679 --> 00:10:13,360
just it's just a cluster mess to clearm to clean

188
00:10:13,399 --> 00:10:16,279
my language. But I mean, we have we have things

189
00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:21,080
like the credit bubble. We have private equity and private credit,

190
00:10:21,679 --> 00:10:24,120
things that were very small back in two thousand and seven.

191
00:10:25,279 --> 00:10:28,080
They're exploding through a roof. You've got massive problems in

192
00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:30,120
private credit right now. So if you're you're a business

193
00:10:30,159 --> 00:10:31,639
and you can't get a loan from the bank and

194
00:10:31,679 --> 00:10:34,399
you can't float dead on your own, you go and

195
00:10:34,440 --> 00:10:36,960
borrow it through the shadow banking systems. It's second one

196
00:10:37,039 --> 00:10:40,000
point three trillion dollars of this stuff out there. At

197
00:10:40,039 --> 00:10:41,919
one point, I think it's one point five trillion dollars

198
00:10:42,000 --> 00:10:45,480
that So then you have FAHA loans which have supplanted

199
00:10:45,480 --> 00:10:47,759
the subprime loan loans. They're not one and a half

200
00:10:47,759 --> 00:10:51,840
trillion dollars of FAHA secure loans that they were almost

201
00:10:52,039 --> 00:10:54,879
non existent too. There were very very few FAHA loans

202
00:10:54,879 --> 00:10:59,200
going into the credit crisis of two thousand and seven.

203
00:10:59,759 --> 00:11:02,120
So instead of instead of ninja loans, we now have

204
00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:05,679
fachase secure. The government took the government takes everything, The

205
00:11:05,720 --> 00:11:08,759
government prints money, takes bad assets onto the balance sheet

206
00:11:09,080 --> 00:11:11,399
that you know, the banks make ninja loans while we

207
00:11:11,440 --> 00:11:14,480
make that illegal. And then we say, okay, fjall won't

208
00:11:14,519 --> 00:11:17,120
do no money down loans. We'll do three and a

209
00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:21,240
half percent down. And the these loans are the full thing.

210
00:11:21,559 --> 00:11:27,679
There's there's the default rate U the initial foreclosure rate

211
00:11:27,799 --> 00:11:31,000
is twenty percent higher year of the year, and foreclosures

212
00:11:31,039 --> 00:11:33,919
in general are up a third almost almost a third.

213
00:11:34,080 --> 00:11:39,159
Thirty thirty two percent, believe is the exact figure of

214
00:11:39,559 --> 00:11:43,600
foreclosures in the greatest economy of the world has ever seen.

215
00:11:43,720 --> 00:11:48,159
Speaker 3: Carrie, Yeah, it's so great.

216
00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:52,960
Speaker 1: Is the video goes up six percent because the orders

217
00:11:52,960 --> 00:11:57,000
are off the charts. I believe somebody wrote an article

218
00:11:57,000 --> 00:12:00,000
about the accounts receivable being like a half a trillion dollar.

219
00:12:01,080 --> 00:12:04,039
I mean, come on, and then this little room is

220
00:12:04,039 --> 00:12:06,919
about vendor vendor financing. I mean, I'm I'm not gonna

221
00:12:06,919 --> 00:12:08,799
say I'm a balance sheet expert on in video, but

222
00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:12,639
I you know what. You know what bothers me viscerally

223
00:12:13,399 --> 00:12:17,240
is when the CEO talks about businesses off the charts

224
00:12:17,240 --> 00:12:22,120
in a prepared statement on his earnings release, I use

225
00:12:22,279 --> 00:12:26,039
like I cringe. I'm cringeing, and maybe the market is saying, like,

226
00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:30,440
wait a second, this is something wrong here, because in

227
00:12:30,559 --> 00:12:33,399
video is up six percent in the pre market and

228
00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:38,200
now it's down. Why what's going on? It's all part

229
00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:41,159
and parcel of this bubble mentality where people don't tell

230
00:12:41,159 --> 00:12:43,159
the truth anymore and they just lie. They just lie

231
00:12:43,200 --> 00:12:47,200
to you about tax rebates and refunds, and how great

232
00:12:47,200 --> 00:12:50,159
the economy is. In the meantime, the bottom four quintiles

233
00:12:50,200 --> 00:12:54,399
have been suffering mightily since COVID. YEP, I keep my

234
00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:59,200
hearing people, the idiots on some of these channels say, well,

235
00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:01,879
you know, income, I have kept up with the rate

236
00:13:01,919 --> 00:13:02,480
of inflation?

237
00:13:03,559 --> 00:13:04,720
Speaker 4: Whose incomes?

238
00:13:05,320 --> 00:13:10,639
Speaker 1: Kerry? First of all, thirty percent of the work the

239
00:13:10,679 --> 00:13:15,440
American citizenry is not in the workforce. Okay, thirty percent.

240
00:13:17,200 --> 00:13:21,000
So what what that retirees make up? Like a quarter,

241
00:13:21,080 --> 00:13:22,720
like a twenty I think it's twenty or twenty five

242
00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:25,879
percent of people are retired. Tell me if you're retired

243
00:13:27,120 --> 00:13:29,000
and it's one fifth or one third of the of

244
00:13:29,039 --> 00:13:33,519
the of the voluntari, tell me if your retirement income

245
00:13:33,519 --> 00:13:38,360
has kept up with inflation? What about the underemployed and unemployed?

246
00:13:38,559 --> 00:13:41,840
Has their incomes kept up with inflation? And even if

247
00:13:41,879 --> 00:13:44,000
you want to lie and say that it's true if

248
00:13:44,000 --> 00:13:47,799
you're employed and say and say, well, okay, well incomes

249
00:13:47,799 --> 00:13:51,240
have kept up with inflation post COVID, that's only if

250
00:13:51,279 --> 00:13:56,879
you lie about inflation. Yeah, obviously, I mean, I don't

251
00:13:56,919 --> 00:13:58,720
know how home prices if you up twenty percent a

252
00:13:58,759 --> 00:14:01,320
year of the year and your inflate official inflation CPI.

253
00:14:01,440 --> 00:14:05,840
You know, the core Personal consumption Expenditure Index is up

254
00:14:05,879 --> 00:14:08,399
like seven. Well, well then, and then we're going to

255
00:14:08,440 --> 00:14:09,600
give you a you know, we're going to give you

256
00:14:09,639 --> 00:14:12,559
a four percent raise and say you're keeping up with inflation.

257
00:14:14,279 --> 00:14:18,320
It's just all bogus. And I've been I've been carry

258
00:14:18,320 --> 00:14:20,039
I've been doing this for thirty five years. I have

259
00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:23,919
never seen so many parts of the economy, markets in

260
00:14:23,919 --> 00:14:25,480
its highlight zone.

261
00:14:25,879 --> 00:14:29,240
Speaker 3: Everything is rigged. Michael, Right, Well.

262
00:14:29,759 --> 00:14:31,919
Speaker 1: Yeah, I gotta tell you it looks it looks more

263
00:14:31,919 --> 00:14:35,519
and more like finding the truth is is like looking

264
00:14:35,519 --> 00:14:37,039
for a needle in this in the haystack.

265
00:14:37,279 --> 00:14:40,320
Speaker 3: As they say, So, how do you play this here?

266
00:14:41,039 --> 00:14:41,639
Speaker 4: Well, first.

267
00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:46,039
Speaker 3: Do things protection and profit.

268
00:14:46,480 --> 00:14:48,799
Speaker 1: So so first thing you first you have to throw out.

269
00:14:48,879 --> 00:14:50,679
First thing you have to throw out is the mancher

270
00:14:50,720 --> 00:14:53,879
from Wall Street that you can't time markets. No one

271
00:14:53,919 --> 00:14:55,879
knows when a recession is coming. You can't predict a

272
00:14:55,919 --> 00:14:58,919
credit crisis. So just buy and hold a sixty forty portfolio.

273
00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:02,039
Do you remember back in twenty twenty two, Tell me

274
00:15:02,159 --> 00:15:05,919
how your sixty forty portfolio did. If you don't remember,

275
00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:08,960
I'll remind the audience that the S and P fell

276
00:15:09,080 --> 00:15:13,480
about twenty percent in twenty two, but long duration bonds

277
00:15:13,519 --> 00:15:17,279
lost over a third. It was the third of their value.

278
00:15:17,639 --> 00:15:20,000
Now that's the US treasuries. I'm not talking about you know,

279
00:15:20,039 --> 00:15:25,519
some exotic penny stock, you know, high high, high yield

280
00:15:25,559 --> 00:15:29,840
piece of junk. I'm talking about US treasuries lost over

281
00:15:29,919 --> 00:15:33,600
thirty percent of their value in twenty twenty two. And

282
00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:37,080
and and the reason is both those asset classes were

283
00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:42,000
in a bubble bubble. So when you're both when both

284
00:15:42,039 --> 00:15:43,919
asset classes are in a bubble, and the and the

285
00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:46,279
carnage is going to start from the bacle on the

286
00:15:46,320 --> 00:15:49,399
bond market and the credit market starts melting down, Well,

287
00:15:49,440 --> 00:15:52,759
that part of your portfolio isn't going to work. And

288
00:15:52,799 --> 00:15:57,679
then when rate spike and mortgage's rate spike and corporate

289
00:15:57,720 --> 00:16:03,639
borrowing cross spike and valuations crumble, both sleeves or your

290
00:16:03,679 --> 00:16:06,919
portfolio are gonna are gonna go swirling down the toilet.

291
00:16:07,200 --> 00:16:09,480
You're gonna get So you have to be you have

292
00:16:09,559 --> 00:16:12,600
to be an active manager. And for me, i'd rather,

293
00:16:12,879 --> 00:16:15,000
I'd rather than the market was up ten percent and

294
00:16:15,039 --> 00:16:19,279
I was up eight percent. For example, in twenty twenty five.

295
00:16:19,320 --> 00:16:22,440
I'd rather something like that was the case. And then

296
00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:24,200
and then you said we underperformed the S and P

297
00:16:24,279 --> 00:16:26,159
five hundred. Well, I don't have an S and P

298
00:16:26,279 --> 00:16:29,240
five hundred fund only, but I participate in bull markets.

299
00:16:29,279 --> 00:16:31,320
But here's what I didn't do. I didn't lose you

300
00:16:31,360 --> 00:16:34,840
fifty percent when reality hit. And if you look at something,

301
00:16:34,879 --> 00:16:37,320
it's just simple is look at the total market KAP

302
00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:39,759
of ecuaries as a percentage of GDP, And yes, that

303
00:16:39,879 --> 00:16:41,759
is still a very valid metric. I don't want to

304
00:16:41,759 --> 00:16:46,039
hear about people say, well, you know, US corporations are international,

305
00:16:46,080 --> 00:16:50,559
so the numerators, you know, the nominator numertor ratio is bogus. Well, no,

306
00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:54,480
that's just straight played out wrong. First of all, foreign

307
00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:59,840
corporations are building stuff and producing stuff in America. That's

308
00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:04,599
g NP and GVP. Those denominators are very closely related.

309
00:17:04,640 --> 00:17:06,920
They're actually in fact, in fact, they're almost the same.

310
00:17:08,119 --> 00:17:10,680
So it is a valid metric. And when the total

311
00:17:10,720 --> 00:17:13,799
market cap of equities is two and twenty percent of GDP,

312
00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:17,480
you've got a real problem because the market could drop

313
00:17:17,519 --> 00:17:20,880
by half and still be overvalued. And it's not just that,

314
00:17:20,920 --> 00:17:24,279
it's it's the it's the earnings yield being negative, it's

315
00:17:24,359 --> 00:17:28,400
priced the sales being in a record high, the trailing

316
00:17:28,599 --> 00:17:32,200
twelve month pe ratio being you know, way out of whack.

317
00:17:32,759 --> 00:17:37,519
So we have a massive bubble in equities and it

318
00:17:37,559 --> 00:17:39,680
has to be reconciled. And there's only two ways that

319
00:17:39,720 --> 00:17:42,880
can be reconciled. Stocks go nowhere for about ten years

320
00:17:43,279 --> 00:17:47,440
and GDP and incomes catch up, or the stock market

321
00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:49,160
has to crash. It's the only two ways it is

322
00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:51,200
going to happen. And I've never seen a bubble. I've

323
00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:53,680
never read about a bubble. I've never witnessed a bubble.

324
00:17:53,839 --> 00:17:56,039
I've never experienced the bubble or heard a rumor about

325
00:17:56,039 --> 00:17:59,200
a bubble that burst innocuously. They all crash. And this

326
00:17:59,279 --> 00:18:01,680
is one who's a gigante. So you could believe me.

327
00:18:01,799 --> 00:18:02,160
Speaker 4: You could.

328
00:18:02,279 --> 00:18:04,440
Speaker 1: You can comment that I'm an idiot, you can say

329
00:18:04,440 --> 00:18:06,440
I'm a Cassandra, you can say what do you want?

330
00:18:06,519 --> 00:18:11,440
I don't care. I am an active manager participating in bubbles,

331
00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:15,000
but with an eye out of with a very robust

332
00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:17,559
algorithm that lets me know when I need to get

333
00:18:17,559 --> 00:18:19,640
more defensive. You could do what you.

334
00:18:19,559 --> 00:18:25,319
Speaker 3: Want, all right, Well, and that's interesting and at least,

335
00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:28,240
there are things you can do to protect yourself.

336
00:18:28,599 --> 00:18:30,960
Speaker 1: So yeah, can I tell you what they are? First

337
00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:32,480
of all, First of all, you can't be in sixty

338
00:18:32,519 --> 00:18:34,519
to forty portfolio. I just mentioned that, but you could

339
00:18:34,559 --> 00:18:37,839
own some precious metals. By the way, in a liquidity crisis,

340
00:18:37,839 --> 00:18:40,759
those will go down, so so silver, platinum, those will

341
00:18:40,759 --> 00:18:42,920
go down. Gold may be less so, but it'll only

342
00:18:42,920 --> 00:18:45,519
go down for a short period of time. You should

343
00:18:45,519 --> 00:18:47,599
be a buyer when that happens. But you want to

344
00:18:47,599 --> 00:18:50,400
protect yourself. Really, there's four things that could protect yourself.

345
00:18:50,400 --> 00:18:55,599
There's cash, there's short term bonds. The US dollar will

346
00:18:55,720 --> 00:18:58,039
most often work as a as a as an offset

347
00:18:58,079 --> 00:19:00,680
because of will ECUITI crisis, everybody wants US dollars. That

348
00:19:00,759 --> 00:19:03,119
might not work this time, but for sure you also

349
00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:05,640
have to short the market. So there's only four potential

350
00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:08,400
things that work, and at least three of them are

351
00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:11,920
mandatory cash, short term bonds, and shorts. And if you

352
00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:14,559
don't exit your if you don't exit your your shit

353
00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:18,240
coin holdings, and you think that that's gonna If you

354
00:19:18,359 --> 00:19:24,200
think that you're an alternative asset class is BTC and

355
00:19:24,279 --> 00:19:27,640
all those other thousands of other derivatives like you know,

356
00:19:28,559 --> 00:19:30,960
we got doze coin, You've got a million other things

357
00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:34,720
that One of the reasons why I don't like cryptocurrencies

358
00:19:34,759 --> 00:19:38,119
is because while bitcoin is limited to twenty one million units,

359
00:19:38,599 --> 00:19:41,400
well there's there's just there's a gazillion other ones that

360
00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:45,279
serve the same function of being decentralized and an open

361
00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:49,599
ledger blah blah blah blah blah, immutable transactions. They all

362
00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:52,640
perform the same function. I mean, if there was if

363
00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:56,160
there was an unlimited number of elements in the Earth's

364
00:19:56,160 --> 00:20:00,319
crust that were very very rare. There were differ but

365
00:20:00,319 --> 00:20:02,640
they were rare, and they never and they were indestructible,

366
00:20:02,920 --> 00:20:06,400
and they were discovered discovering that element every every day,

367
00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:09,359
Well gold would lose some of its luster because I

368
00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:11,839
have so many other choices. I have so much competition

369
00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:15,119
for that which is very rare, very beautiful and destruct

370
00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:20,279
and indestructible. Right, you follow that philosophy, unlimited number of

371
00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:24,319
blockchains that we create can be created. And Wall Street

372
00:20:24,319 --> 00:20:26,799
has bastardized the price a bitcoin by pimping it like

373
00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:29,519
whors you know, everywhere you look, you know, it's crypto.

374
00:20:29,599 --> 00:20:32,240
Crypto bowlers are pilling piling up on TV left and

375
00:20:32,319 --> 00:20:35,400
right telling you is that, you know, taking an asset

376
00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:39,119
class that probably has some function, some real utility. Maybe

377
00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:40,720
if if you want to get your money out of

378
00:20:40,759 --> 00:20:43,160
a country that's going and solvent, maybe it's worth a

379
00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:45,400
few thousand dollars in unit. But it's not a few

380
00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:47,799
thousand dollars. It's one hundred and twenty thousand dollars a unit,

381
00:20:48,519 --> 00:20:51,440
which is ridiculous. It's all bigcoin is is a code.

382
00:20:51,519 --> 00:20:53,759
It's it's not a lot. It's it's a bunch of

383
00:20:53,839 --> 00:20:56,799
numbers in letters. It's all your own. It's electronic numbers

384
00:20:56,839 --> 00:20:58,440
and letters that you could take them all, put them

385
00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:00,279
in cold stores and write them on a piece of paper.

386
00:21:00,759 --> 00:21:02,160
But how much do you want for that piece of

387
00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:03,839
paper kerry.

388
00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:07,359
Speaker 3: Whatever the market will yield. I wish I was the

389
00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:11,519
one that thought of it in the first place. Yeah,

390
00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:15,960
so gold and silver is really your only defense here.

391
00:21:16,599 --> 00:21:18,920
What do you think of the recent movements of silver

392
00:21:19,440 --> 00:21:23,279
fifty dollars and ounce. They've been fighting it like mad.

393
00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:26,720
I don't want it. It's conspiracy theories. But it seems

394
00:21:26,799 --> 00:21:31,160
like comex GPT cannot get used to the fact that

395
00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:36,759
fifty that silver is over fifty dollars an ounce. Yeah.

396
00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:42,920
Speaker 1: So so in the vanguard of protecting yourself against inflation,

397
00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:47,559
I always look to gold. Silver and platinum are secondary

398
00:21:47,559 --> 00:21:50,599
and tertiary roles in my view. But bear in mind

399
00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:53,000
what I did say is that in a liquidity crisis,

400
00:21:53,039 --> 00:21:55,799
everything gets sold. So just keep that in mind. And

401
00:21:55,839 --> 00:21:58,319
that to me is, you know, if you look back

402
00:21:58,319 --> 00:22:02,839
in two thousand and eight, late two thousand and you know,

403
00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:06,400
the summer of two thousand and eight into the Fall

404
00:22:06,519 --> 00:22:09,440
of Oe and then didn't rebound until around you know,

405
00:22:09,559 --> 00:22:14,720
January February of nine. Gold is a wonderful asset and

406
00:22:15,039 --> 00:22:18,680
wonderful hedge, but in a liquidity crisis, you sell everything.

407
00:22:19,079 --> 00:22:21,279
That is why I didn't make my what I called

408
00:22:21,279 --> 00:22:24,519
a four horsemen of the economic apocalypse. Now gold is

409
00:22:24,599 --> 00:22:28,400
out performed the S and P in the last quarter century.

410
00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:32,720
And I think now that we have a federal reserve

411
00:22:33,839 --> 00:22:37,279
which is going back into QE, which is lowering interest rates,

412
00:22:37,519 --> 00:22:39,480
you're going to get a new head of the thed

413
00:22:39,559 --> 00:22:41,359
which is going to be what I call an obsecree,

414
00:22:41,359 --> 00:22:46,480
a sikaphant in the nursery regime, who's going to take

415
00:22:46,559 --> 00:22:48,680
interest rates. I mean, you got this guy in Iran

416
00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:51,680
who wants to slash a series of fifth this is

417
00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:55,240
what he said, a series of fifty bases point rate cuse,

418
00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:58,920
so he wants So we're going back to you know,

419
00:22:59,039 --> 00:23:01,839
we're going back towards zero interest rate policies, We're going

420
00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:05,160
back into QE, and the deficit is going to go

421
00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:07,799
from where it is today around two trillion dollars to

422
00:23:07,839 --> 00:23:11,039
six trillion dollars in the recession. So if that's all

423
00:23:11,039 --> 00:23:14,559
we're aheaded. If the liquidity crisis is genuine and it's coming,

424
00:23:16,039 --> 00:23:20,319
be aware that the market is so overvalued, it's going

425
00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:23,119
to be like a huge black hole sucking everything down

426
00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:25,240
except for what I just mentioned, and I'll mention it again,

427
00:23:25,839 --> 00:23:31,160
short term treasuries, the US dollar, and your ability is short.

428
00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:35,559
The market adroitly will protect you and make you profit

429
00:23:36,039 --> 00:23:38,440
from what's happening. And I would, and I would use

430
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:44,279
the liquidity crisis to stock up on gold, primarily because

431
00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:48,519
you're I think you're looking at a double digit fed's

432
00:23:48,559 --> 00:23:51,200
balance sheet from where it is today, double digit fed's

433
00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:54,200
balance sheet for short negative real interest rates once again,

434
00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:57,759
and inflation that's going to run intractable. So go get

435
00:23:57,799 --> 00:24:00,519
it while it's on sale. Well forced al as a

436
00:24:00,559 --> 00:24:03,480
goal of is what you should be looking to buy.

437
00:24:04,799 --> 00:24:08,720
Speaker 3: Right, just like what happened in eight no nine, right,

438
00:24:09,599 --> 00:24:14,039
gold and silver crashed and then uh temper of dollars

439
00:24:14,079 --> 00:24:15,279
and then they took off.

440
00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:19,880
Speaker 1: Temporary exactly said that's use that quick, use that as

441
00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:22,440
your entry point, because that's that's gonna that's going to

442
00:24:22,519 --> 00:24:23,920
bounce the hardest and fastest.

443
00:24:25,559 --> 00:24:26,039
Speaker 4: All right.

444
00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:33,279
Speaker 3: So when we're looking at the liquidity event, which is

445
00:24:33,319 --> 00:24:37,559
inevitably going to occur, most of the collapses we've had

446
00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:40,240
have always hinged on that liquidity event.

447
00:24:40,839 --> 00:24:42,480
Speaker 4: How far off do you see it happening?

448
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:45,039
Speaker 1: I can't give you. I can't give you a date.

449
00:24:45,079 --> 00:24:46,480
I can tell you where. I can tell you when

450
00:24:46,519 --> 00:24:48,759
it's hash starting to happen. So what I've said, this

451
00:24:48,799 --> 00:24:50,839
is what I'm doing. Yes me, I manage money for

452
00:24:50,839 --> 00:24:55,000
a living. I'm on the record saying that it looks

453
00:24:55,079 --> 00:24:57,240
and you're you're listening to somebody who said that we

454
00:24:57,240 --> 00:25:01,680
were in reflation and a growth cycle all of twenty

455
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:04,599
twenty five. So this is not a perma bear speaking

456
00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:08,799
here someone who says that we were happily participating in

457
00:25:08,839 --> 00:25:12,400
the bullmarket lately, and I mean the last couple of weeks,

458
00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:16,759
we've been becoming a little more cautious because high yield

459
00:25:16,799 --> 00:25:21,160
spreads have stopped contracting, their starting to rise. Financial conditions

460
00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:25,200
have stopped easing, they're starting to tighten. If you look

461
00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:29,799
at other things like you know, the five year five

462
00:25:29,839 --> 00:25:34,359
year forward inflation spread. If look at copper gold ratio.

463
00:25:34,559 --> 00:25:37,680
I have a model. There's twenty components and aggregate in

464
00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:39,920
the model. The model tells me just to get a

465
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:42,680
little more cautious. So it's not a binary event. I'll

466
00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:44,119
say bullish bearish.

467
00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:44,720
Speaker 3: I don't do that.

468
00:25:44,799 --> 00:25:49,119
Speaker 1: I'm just saying that liquidity is tightening. I don't know.

469
00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:52,319
If it's the yen carry trade that's evaporated. I don't know,

470
00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:55,119
if it's the reverse repo facility it's now bankrupt and

471
00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:58,240
at zero. I don't I shouldn't say bankrupt. It's back

472
00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:02,759
to zero cheap, so reverse rebuff facilities. The excess reserves

473
00:26:02,759 --> 00:26:05,000
from banks that were once was two and a half trillion,

474
00:26:05,079 --> 00:26:09,799
now it's zero but effectively zero. So that is one

475
00:26:09,839 --> 00:26:11,799
of the reasons why the Fed's panicking, because when when

476
00:26:11,839 --> 00:26:13,599
you have bubbles like this, you have to keep you

477
00:26:13,599 --> 00:26:16,519
have to keep inflating them otherwise they just collapse on themselves,

478
00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:21,680
collapse on themselves, they implode. So I'm getting more cautious,

479
00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:23,599
That's what I'm doing. So I'm selling some of my

480
00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:27,119
AI related stuff and I'm but I brought some health care.

481
00:26:28,319 --> 00:26:30,559
I did increase the short that I have in the market.

482
00:26:30,599 --> 00:26:32,480
So I'm just I'm just not interested in going down

483
00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:33,880
with the ship. And we're not going to go down

484
00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:35,680
with the ship God rolling, We're not. We are going

485
00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:38,559
to take the appropriate steps when the credit and the

486
00:26:38,559 --> 00:26:40,720
credit is to two ways you get a credit crisis.

487
00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:43,720
One is because of a deflationary recession slash depression when

488
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:46,119
there's no money around, and the other one is when

489
00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:48,039
the liquidity runs out in the bond market, and that

490
00:26:48,079 --> 00:26:50,759
you have a bond market crisis where it rates spike

491
00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:54,000
even though this you know, the economy is not yet

492
00:26:54,079 --> 00:26:57,319
falling to pieces. I'm looking out for both those occurrences

493
00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:01,039
and I'm going to protect the sid That's what we do.

494
00:27:01,759 --> 00:27:06,880
Speaker 3: So I have a theory that these markets actually when

495
00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:07,880
these things.

496
00:27:07,599 --> 00:27:08,920
Speaker 4: Happen like eight No.

497
00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:13,680
Speaker 3: Nine, they actually happened long before the public is made

498
00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:18,440
aware of them. So all the perhaps the insiders who

499
00:27:18,599 --> 00:27:24,119
know can adjust their portfolios accordingly, it's kind of like

500
00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:29,319
a black hole gobbled up that star twenty years ago.

501
00:27:29,799 --> 00:27:32,799
We're looking through our telescope and that star looks like

502
00:27:32,839 --> 00:27:36,200
it's still there, but in reality, it's gone. And that's

503
00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:39,759
what I think has happened to the silver market and

504
00:27:39,799 --> 00:27:44,759
the gold market. I think they've already imploded, but nobody

505
00:27:44,759 --> 00:27:46,279
bothered to tell us.

506
00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:51,880
Speaker 1: That's your theory. Yeah, that's your theory. I base my

507
00:27:52,079 --> 00:27:54,640
entire model on it. And now I've been doing this

508
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:56,319
for thirty five years. I used to work on the

509
00:27:56,319 --> 00:27:58,200
floor in New York sac Change. I'm not a neophight

510
00:27:58,279 --> 00:28:00,839
by any mean. What you said is how I is

511
00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:03,039
what I based my model on. What you're really saying

512
00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:08,680
is that the stock market is based on insider information. Okay,

513
00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:12,000
the people who know what's going on. I call it

514
00:28:12,039 --> 00:28:17,000
the few oligarchs that that run this planet, the multi

515
00:28:17,079 --> 00:28:21,880
multi billionaires that run this world. Okay, they know when

516
00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:27,000
the major asked the major banks their assets are starting

517
00:28:27,039 --> 00:28:30,319
to erode. They know, and they act, and that's why

518
00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:32,799
you see that My model looks at the arcane parts

519
00:28:32,799 --> 00:28:36,680
like CDs spreads, these arcane things that you know CNBC

520
00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:38,480
would just tell you buy and hold or this market

521
00:28:38,559 --> 00:28:41,079
went down today. We don't know what happened. No, it

522
00:28:41,799 --> 00:28:46,559
was happening. Is is that credit The credit markets are

523
00:28:46,599 --> 00:28:51,119
starting to fracture and financial conditions are starting to tighten,

524
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:53,480
and the market is going down. They say, well, it's

525
00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:55,599
just a normal correction. The fifty look at the fifty

526
00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:57,519
day moving errors or the two undred Dame move erers.

527
00:28:57,559 --> 00:29:02,559
I remember the Golden Cross or the Desert bs. The

528
00:29:02,599 --> 00:29:06,960
insiders know, they react. I'm following them. That's what the

529
00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:07,799
model is based on.

530
00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:13,279
Speaker 3: And I think it's already I think the silver price

531
00:29:13,319 --> 00:29:15,559
fixing mechanism has already collapsed.

532
00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:18,240
Speaker 4: It collapsed back.

533
00:29:18,559 --> 00:29:22,759
Speaker 3: I think in May when silver crossed thirty two dollars

534
00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:28,000
and the price became uncontainable. And I think we're seeing

535
00:29:28,039 --> 00:29:31,079
the same thing there. The black hole already gottle the star,

536
00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:35,240
but we're still seeing the light coming from the star

537
00:29:35,759 --> 00:29:38,200
because we're light years behind the insiders.

538
00:29:39,319 --> 00:29:40,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, well you don't have to be if you have

539
00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:42,880
the if you know what, if you know the insiders

540
00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:46,279
take steps to protect themselves and if you follow that

541
00:29:46,559 --> 00:29:50,960
their actions, you could you could be saved like they are.

542
00:29:51,240 --> 00:29:54,440
They don't come on CNBC and announce what they're doing.

543
00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:57,440
Speaker 4: I can tell you that, and they don't brag about it.

544
00:29:57,480 --> 00:29:58,599
They keep their mouths.

545
00:29:58,359 --> 00:30:01,319
Speaker 1: Shut, keep their mouths shut. They do what they have

546
00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:07,759
to do, and you need to follow them. I don't

547
00:30:07,759 --> 00:30:10,759
know them. They're about friends of mine. They don't tell

548
00:30:10,759 --> 00:30:13,640
me what they're doing, but I can see their footprints.

549
00:30:15,119 --> 00:30:18,359
Speaker 3: That's the sign of a market pro. You can actually

550
00:30:18,599 --> 00:30:22,160
see because you don't see it directly. You don't hear

551
00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:24,960
them place in the orders or see them, but you

552
00:30:25,000 --> 00:30:27,519
see the aftermath and you see the patterns. We're talking

553
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:32,039
pattern recognition, and that's what sets you apart from some

554
00:30:32,160 --> 00:30:34,039
guy who just says buy ets.

555
00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:42,920
Speaker 1: Well, first of all, or thereabouts of money managers don't

556
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:47,559
manage the money in a you know, in a long

557
00:30:47,559 --> 00:30:50,920
short strategy. Their rubric is, well, I'm going to kind

558
00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:52,799
of put some money here that looks like the S

559
00:30:52,839 --> 00:30:55,240
and P, and I'll put some money here in the

560
00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:57,240
in bonds based on your age, and I'm going to

561
00:30:57,319 --> 00:30:59,119
go out to the golf course and try to raise

562
00:30:59,119 --> 00:31:03,200
more money. They're salespeople. And then you have the people,

563
00:31:03,519 --> 00:31:05,799
you know, the small amount of people who actually run

564
00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:09,279
a long short strategy, but how many are really economists

565
00:31:09,319 --> 00:31:12,039
and market strategists. How many of those people are and

566
00:31:12,119 --> 00:31:14,240
how many of those people actually have an algorithm that

567
00:31:14,359 --> 00:31:16,759
works that gets you out.

568
00:31:17,519 --> 00:31:20,160
Speaker 4: I mean, all right, the alharithm.

569
00:31:20,559 --> 00:31:24,039
Speaker 1: My monel picked up on COVID before, you know, I

570
00:31:24,079 --> 00:31:26,519
didn't know if it was a I don't know if

571
00:31:26,519 --> 00:31:29,519
it was the sniffles coming from China or if it

572
00:31:29,599 --> 00:31:32,200
was the Bebonic plague. I didn't know. But my model said, WHOA,

573
00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:36,400
something's happening here. Insiders are dumping and they're buying the

574
00:31:36,519 --> 00:31:39,480
protection for their portfolio, and I'm going to do what

575
00:31:39,519 --> 00:31:44,119
they do. Yeah. I'm not saying that I'm some kind

576
00:31:44,119 --> 00:31:47,119
of you know, super genius or I have this kind

577
00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:49,519
of knowledge that no one else knows. I just been

578
00:31:49,559 --> 00:31:53,839
doing this long enough, and I'm independent and objective enough

579
00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:56,880
to say, what what what do I need to look

580
00:31:56,920 --> 00:31:59,160
at to let me know when there's a problem, a

581
00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:03,119
real problem in the credit markets, or when a recession

582
00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:07,000
is going to happen. Well, and and that's where I credit.

583
00:32:07,039 --> 00:32:08,680
That's the model. That's what the model built of it.

584
00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:12,319
Speaker 3: You're what we call Michael in the trade, a certified

585
00:32:12,440 --> 00:32:13,720
algorithm decoder.

586
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:16,079
Speaker 1: All right, I guess I'll take it. I don't know

587
00:32:16,319 --> 00:32:18,440
that I don't. I don't even know if that means,

588
00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:21,519
but it sounds good. It's better than instead of being

589
00:32:21,559 --> 00:32:22,720
the used carpet salesman.

590
00:32:22,799 --> 00:32:28,880
Speaker 3: How's that a certified financial algorithm decoder, because that's exactly

591
00:32:28,920 --> 00:32:32,200
what it is. You see the patterns, Yeah, understand the

592
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:35,160
algorithm behind it, and then you act accordingly.

593
00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:36,680
Speaker 4: Hey, just tell us.

594
00:32:36,759 --> 00:32:39,319
Speaker 3: Where we find you how we need to get more

595
00:32:39,400 --> 00:32:41,279
info on the fund there.

596
00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:46,200
Speaker 1: So, the penzo Port website is penzoport dot com. I

597
00:32:46,240 --> 00:32:50,000
have a weekly podcast for fifty dollars a year. You'll

598
00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:53,200
get my thoughts on the saling, economic data and a

599
00:32:53,279 --> 00:32:56,559
high level view of the markets. And then if you

600
00:32:56,599 --> 00:32:58,640
were a US citizen and you have one hundred thousand

601
00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:01,799
and you qualify for long short strategy, you're suitable for it.

602
00:33:01,839 --> 00:33:04,880
I'll manage your money directly in the inflation, deflation and

603
00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:08,160
economic SOCCO model, where I have some of my money

604
00:33:08,160 --> 00:33:10,279
there too. I mean, my my client's money is in it.

605
00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:14,279
My you know, my money in the for the market,

606
00:33:14,359 --> 00:33:16,000
you know, not my real estate holding them up. But

607
00:33:16,359 --> 00:33:18,400
my money is in there too because I eat my

608
00:33:18,440 --> 00:33:21,079
own cooking, and I would the only way I would

609
00:33:21,079 --> 00:33:24,640
be able to invest in this market is if I

610
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:27,200
had that algorithms otherwise I wouldn't I wouldn't trust it.

611
00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:28,599
I would be scared.

612
00:33:29,680 --> 00:33:30,200
Speaker 4: To death.

613
00:33:30,279 --> 00:33:31,960
Speaker 1: And I'm sure a lot of people are, and they

614
00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:34,920
should be people who are people who are honestly objective

615
00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:37,240
and they see what's going on around them with you

616
00:33:37,279 --> 00:33:40,839
know them, you can't afford a home. Home prices are

617
00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:44,720
unaffordable for the first time home buyer. The stock market

618
00:33:44,759 --> 00:33:47,839
is way overvalued. You're looking at this gambling and this

619
00:33:48,000 --> 00:33:50,680
nonsense that's going on in the credit markets, and you

620
00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:55,039
see people borrowing, you know, billions of dollars for this

621
00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:59,519
AI craze, which reminds me a lot of the Internet

622
00:33:59,559 --> 00:34:00,920
craze in two thousand.

623
00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:02,680
Speaker 3: Great exactly, dodri Holm.

624
00:34:03,039 --> 00:34:06,079
Speaker 1: It's a great technology, it's productivity machine. It's going to

625
00:34:06,119 --> 00:34:10,000
be wonderful. But there's over spending on it now.

626
00:34:10,119 --> 00:34:13,079
Speaker 3: Over capacity like everything else that they do.

627
00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:16,000
Speaker 4: And you make a great point there.

628
00:34:16,119 --> 00:34:20,320
Speaker 3: Hey, stay safe on the pickle ball court, don't running

629
00:34:20,440 --> 00:34:24,559
backwards whatever you do, just let the ball pass, because uh,

630
00:34:25,079 --> 00:34:27,800
you know, you got a lot of a lot of

631
00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:31,320
investors in your fund there who are counting on you

632
00:34:31,719 --> 00:34:35,519
to stay healthy and mentally sound.

633
00:34:35,599 --> 00:34:35,800
Speaker 4: Here.

634
00:34:36,039 --> 00:34:38,119
Speaker 1: Wow, Okay, I will, I will, I'll wear a helmet,

635
00:34:38,519 --> 00:34:39,119
my Frank.

636
00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:43,639
Speaker 3: Is idea good idea. Well, it's those compound wrist fractures

637
00:34:44,199 --> 00:34:48,000
that really kill you and the Achilles tendon ruptures that

638
00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:51,480
pickleball is famous for it. In fact, I wrote a

639
00:34:51,519 --> 00:34:55,159
book that I just dropped recently called hoa Emperor, about

640
00:34:55,199 --> 00:34:58,159
a guy who goes into witness protection. He comes to

641
00:34:58,239 --> 00:35:03,079
South Florida. He starts taking over h oa's, turning them around,

642
00:35:03,199 --> 00:35:06,840
making them beautiful, all the while stealing them blind. And

643
00:35:07,119 --> 00:35:10,880
one of his scams is pickleball, So he's got the

644
00:35:10,960 --> 00:35:15,480
Great Pickleball Caper of Port Efford, Lades.

645
00:35:17,239 --> 00:35:18,719
Speaker 1: All right, good to see you, Gerry.

646
00:35:19,679 --> 00:35:20,960
Speaker 3: You well, take care.

647
00:35:21,800 --> 00:35:25,920
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, your

648
00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:29,840
solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to

649
00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:35,920
Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than

650
00:35:36,000 --> 00:35:36,239
ever