Speaker 1: Welcome to the Trip Cast.
Speaker 2: I'm Eleanor Klibanoff, thrilled to be joined this week by,
Speaker 2: as always, editor in chief Matthew Watkins.
Speaker 1: How are you doing, Matthew doing?
Speaker 3: All right?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 2: We are very excited for both the theme of today's episode,
Speaker 2: where we'll be talking about the big upcoming Senate race
Speaker 2: in Texas, and especially excited about our guest, our former
Speaker 2: friend turned mortal enemy, Patrick's v Tech Patrick.
Speaker 3: How are you come back on? I appreciate it.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Patrick is currently a reporter on the Washington Post politics
Speaker 2: breaking news team. Most of you probably know him from
Speaker 2: his nine year stint covering politics for us here at
Speaker 2: the Texas Tribune. Patrick remains, I believe you can correct
Speaker 2: me if I'm wrong on this. The most prolific Texas
Speaker 2: Tribune reporter in history.
Speaker 3: That's probably true. Yeah, yeah, I don't have numbers to
Speaker 3: back that up, but I'm going to say yes.
Speaker 2: Last year, you know, he left us for the Washington Post,
Speaker 2: but we're thrilled to have him back here on the
Speaker 2: Trip Cast. Patrick, Before we jump into the race, what
Speaker 2: do you miss most about Texas? What could what can
Speaker 2: we send to you in DC? If we could transplant one,
Speaker 2: one thing from Texas to d C.
Speaker 1: What would you have?
Speaker 4: Oh? Man, h just HB in general? Probably you know,
Speaker 4: there's specific products I could call out, but yeah, there's
Speaker 4: the grocery stores in d C did not compare to
Speaker 4: HIV in general, I would say, So that's one thing,
Speaker 4: And then there's plenty of restaurants and taco places that
Speaker 4: I could list off for you, especially coming from San
Speaker 4: Antonio to DC.
Speaker 3: Saw that coming a mile away.
Speaker 5: Yeah, Patrick, you'd be sad to know about all the
Speaker 5: coffee shops closing around our office start time. I'ms out
Speaker 5: out here in Congress.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I will say I lived in d C for
Speaker 2: I went to college in DC and lived there for
Speaker 2: a while after. And uh, maybe it's changed since, but
Speaker 2: when I lived there, at least the tex mex was
Speaker 2: like egregious, like egregiously bad, very few options.
Speaker 4: There's serviceable Mexican food to text mex at least in the.
Speaker 3: DC proper area.
Speaker 4: In parts of Maryland there's really good Mexican food, I
Speaker 4: would say, outside of DC, but in the in the
Speaker 4: district itself, Yeah, you got to you gotta put in
Speaker 4: some work to find the good places.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I'm sure you are missing HIV and tex
Speaker 2: mex maybe more than the Texas legislature, which we are
Speaker 2: knee deep.
Speaker 1: In right now.
Speaker 2: But we are going to look ahead to a forthcoming
Speaker 2: political showdown, potentially one of the biggest political battles in
Speaker 2: recent Texas memory, as long time incumbent Senator John Cornyn
Speaker 2: faces down the insurgent arm of the Republican Party in
Speaker 2: the physical form of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. This
Speaker 2: is shaping up to be a vicious, expensive primary in
Speaker 2: which Texas is Republican in fighting will be laid out
Speaker 2: on the national stage for all to witness. Feels a
Speaker 2: bit like, you know, when someone comes over to your
Speaker 2: family's house and sees your family fighting.
Speaker 1: It's all embarrassing.
Speaker 2: But we're you know, gonna be a gonna be a
Speaker 2: big people know what to expect when they come visit
Speaker 2: our family.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's true.
Speaker 2: I don't think Texas is fighting it. They're the family
Speaker 2: like having the fight.
Speaker 3: At the in the front line.
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly, Patrick, You've covered both of these figures for
Speaker 2: a long time. Let's start with Cornyn and tell us
Speaker 2: a little bit about you know, John Cornyn as a
Speaker 2: as a character and sort of what his profile looks
Speaker 2: like coming into this race.
Speaker 4: Sure, well, I guess, you know, from the perspective in Washington,
Speaker 4: and he's coming into this reelection campaign after coming up
Speaker 4: short in something that he has long wanted to do,
Speaker 4: which is lead Senate Republicans. He narrowly lost the Senate
Speaker 4: Majority leader race to John Thune from South Toda right
Speaker 4: after the November election in twenty twenty four. For I
Speaker 4: think years before that, he had made clear that that
Speaker 4: was something that he had wanted to run for if
Speaker 4: it ever, you know, if Mitch McConnell ever stepped aside
Speaker 4: from that leadership position, and you know, he made a
Speaker 4: good run for it, and you know, I forgot what
Speaker 4: the final count was, but he you know, it wasn't
Speaker 4: like a blowout, and so it was kind of a
Speaker 4: disappointing loss for him. But he made pretty clear right
Speaker 4: after that that he planned to run for reelection, telling
Speaker 4: reporters that in DC, and then you know, officially launched
Speaker 4: his reelection campaign in March. And for now, it seems
Speaker 4: like he has a lot of fight left in him,
Speaker 4: or at least he's trying to project the image that
Speaker 4: he has a lot of fight left in him. I mean,
Speaker 4: he is coming out of this coming out of the
Speaker 4: gates swinging at Paxton, which sured you know, I guess
Speaker 4: the generous interpretations. It shows he has a lot of
Speaker 4: fight left in and but it also shows you know,
Speaker 4: the very vulnerable position that he's in in this primary,
Speaker 4: that he feels the need to go negative on Paxton
Speaker 4: so quickly. And so that's kind of I think John
Speaker 4: Corny summed up over the at least the recent several months.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and then Matthew, I'll give you the tougher question,
Speaker 2: which is, how would you summarize Ken Paxton?
Speaker 3: How would I summarize Kein Paxton?
Speaker 5: So, Ken Paxton, of course has been Attorney General since
Speaker 5: twenty fifteen.
Speaker 3: He is a you know, a.
Speaker 5: Controversial and a figure who brings up a lot of
Speaker 5: passion on both sides and has for that time. You know,
Speaker 5: I think people view him as very closely aligned with
Speaker 5: Donald Trump, famously filed a lawsuit in twenty twenty and
Speaker 5: seeking to overturn the election results. He's been very aggressive
Speaker 5: in you know, pursuing causes favored by the kind of
Speaker 5: hard line right of Texas that can range from you know,
Speaker 5: anti abortion initiatives, targeting what he perceives to be is
Speaker 5: voter fraud, and you know a lot of sort of
Speaker 5: like social issues, things related to trans kids, all that
Speaker 5: kind of stuff that if you if you see it
Speaker 5: being talked about on Fox News, Ken Paxson has probably
Speaker 5: filed a lawsuit related to it in the court. He
Speaker 5: of course, also has carried with him a lot of
Speaker 5: you know, ethical baggage. Famously, you know, was under indictment
Speaker 5: for a long part of his early part of his
Speaker 5: tenure because he was accused of securities fraud. That case
Speaker 5: has since kind of gone away, and then you know,
Speaker 5: more recently many of his top lieutenants resigned and accused
Speaker 5: him of bribery. That case was investigated by the FBI,
Speaker 5: but we learned recently that just before Trump took over
Speaker 5: the FBI, the Department of Justice dropped that case. And so,
Speaker 5: you know, he he remains he has those close ties
Speaker 5: with the base, He has those close ties as with
Speaker 5: the with the Trump administration. There are definitely people in
Speaker 5: the Republican Party who try to keep him at arm's
Speaker 5: length though, because of some of those other kind of
Speaker 5: areas of baggage in the world.
Speaker 2: That was a very phenomenal recounting, you left out one
Speaker 2: major chapter other than that, which is he was impeached, right,
Speaker 2: of course he was not, unlike you know, our president
Speaker 2: right now, was impeached by the House, the Texas House Representatives,
Speaker 2: and then after having a lengthy trial in the Senate,
Speaker 2: the Texas Senate voted to acquit him and restore him
Speaker 2: to his role.
Speaker 1: So other than that, that's.
Speaker 3: Really maybe the most important thing.
Speaker 1: But you know, you know, we got all the rest
Speaker 1: of the details.
Speaker 2: I mean, Patrick, how I mean, there's long been the
Speaker 2: joke about attorney's general, like, not just in Texas but
Speaker 2: nationally right that it stands for like aspiring governor. It
Speaker 2: is often a jumping point to more to higher office.
Speaker 2: How surprised are you to see Paxson getting to this race, Like,
Speaker 2: how do we get here with paxton challenge in Cornan?
Speaker 4: You know, not surprised at all. I mean, Paxton had
Speaker 4: telegraphed for months that maybe even over a year, that
Speaker 4: he would maybe one day be interested in challenging Cornan.
Speaker 4: Cornan has been one of the few statewide elected Texas
Speaker 4: Republicans who has at least been blunt in observing Paxton's
Speaker 4: legal challenges. It's not like Cornan has necessarily been a
Speaker 4: vocal critic of Paxson's legal challenges, but you know, among
Speaker 4: other state wide elected Republicans, they've been largely happy to
Speaker 4: just kind of look the other way and try to
Speaker 4: remain neutral. As Paxton has encountered all these other you know,
Speaker 4: all these legal and ethical issues. So Cornan has stood
Speaker 4: out I think for at least acknowledging or expressing some
Speaker 4: concern about the legal and ethical issues that Paxon has had,
Speaker 4: and he's gotten sharper over the years. There was obviously
Speaker 4: that you know, tweet from Cornin to Paxton I think
Speaker 4: last year where he said it's hard to run from
Speaker 4: prison Ken, So clearly he ran, you know, one from
Speaker 4: expressing concern to throw in some actual political jabs. But
Speaker 4: Cornan has stood out, I think in that regard. And
Speaker 4: I think there's some real personal animosity between these two men,
Speaker 4: and I think that's what's keeping Cornyn going here a
Speaker 4: little bit.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 4: You know, I mentioned earlier that Cornin seems to be,
Speaker 4: you know, showing some real fight from the outset of
Speaker 4: this race. I think that that's inspired by a little
Speaker 4: bit of personal animus, you know, toward Paxton. And you know,
Speaker 4: even though in this day and age, in the Trump era,
Speaker 4: I think corn And probably feels like he can't say
Speaker 4: this out loud because of Trump's own scandals and the
Speaker 4: general tolerance for scandals inside the GOP. But I think
Speaker 4: Cornan believes that the Texas GOP should be embarrassed about Paxton.
Speaker 4: And so I think that's kind of what personally maybe
Speaker 4: keeping Corny and chugging along in this case, even though
Speaker 4: it looks like he's in the final you know, he's
Speaker 4: in the latter years of his political career, I.
Speaker 5: Should just pause and ignowledge that for those of us
Speaker 5: who cover texts politics, who are involved in you know,
Speaker 5: the media world, this is just delightful, right whether or
Speaker 5: not we you know, yeah, we may not have a
Speaker 5: dog in the race, but we love interesting and exciting races.
Speaker 5: And I would say this one is probably the highest
Speaker 5: profile Republican primary in the state since maybe twenty ten
Speaker 5: when k Bailey Hutchison, then a sitting senator I believe,
Speaker 5: challenged the incumbent governor Rick Perry. And what everyone was
Speaker 5: super excited about, you know, this being this huge kind
Speaker 5: of heavy whiteweight fight in that race, it didn't really
Speaker 5: turn out to be that much of a fight. It
Speaker 5: turned out to be something of a pummeling, you know,
Speaker 5: Rick Perry winning by more than twenty percentage points in
Speaker 5: that race. But I think we see this as two
Speaker 5: people who loom very heavily over Texas politics going right
Speaker 5: after each other. Whether Cornyan would agree with this framing
Speaker 5: or not, I think a lot of people are viewing
Speaker 5: it as sort of the more traditional Republican, the one
Speaker 5: who has been you know, in leadership in the Senate
Speaker 5: for a very long time, you know, was kind of
Speaker 5: around before we saw this dramatic shift to the right
Speaker 5: in the state Republican Party, in the Republican Party in general,
Speaker 5: versus the sort of new type of Republican, the one
Speaker 5: who really ties the line close to Trump, who is
Speaker 5: you know, always kind of scrapping for a fight, and
Speaker 5: you know, Frankly is like less concerned about the traditional
Speaker 5: norms and rules that govern politics. And I think we're
Speaker 5: going to watch this and I think a lot of
Speaker 5: people are going to frame this is a sort of
Speaker 5: fight over you know, the future of the Republican Party
Speaker 5: in Texas, and in.
Speaker 2: Many ways, like Ken Paxton has been the standard bearer
Speaker 2: for that movement, right, not just in that he is
Speaker 2: the most and I wouldn't even as I say, and
Speaker 2: so he is like sort of the most extreme in
Speaker 2: that in that side of the party, but he's certainly
Speaker 2: the most local, the most I mean, we saw this
Speaker 2: in like judicial races in the last election, where you know,
Speaker 2: Attorney General Paxson was very unhappy with the ruling and
Speaker 2: said basically, I'm going to go get you know, the
Speaker 2: judges I want. It was pretty open about that, Like,
Speaker 2: I don't think he would dispute that that framing, and
Speaker 2: with the Court of Criminal Appeals unseated three people put
Speaker 2: on judges you know, in at least two cases who
Speaker 2: who are very closely allied with him, So he seems
Speaker 2: pretty you know, in many ways. I think he's been
Speaker 2: preparing for this fight for for a long time, and
Speaker 2: you know it's going to be a big national.
Speaker 1: Route.
Speaker 2: I mean, I am curious, though, Patrick, what is your
Speaker 2: sense of how outside of Texas maybe and even within
Speaker 2: you know, tech the Texas GOP, how much appetite is
Speaker 2: there for this big, bloody, vicious, potentially expensive primary in Texas,
Speaker 2: a state that you know otherwise you know, I think
Speaker 2: people think corner maybe could could you know, walk into
Speaker 2: another term if you wanted to, if you didn't face
Speaker 2: a major challenge.
Speaker 4: Sure, I mean, I think from Republican you know operatives
Speaker 4: in DC who are aligned with corn In or sympathy
Speaker 4: to Corny, and you know, they view this as a
Speaker 4: waste of time and money during a midterm cycle where
Speaker 4: you know, historically the trends are against them, but they
Speaker 4: do have a three seat majority in the Senate and
Speaker 4: some opportunities to grow that majority. And so I think
Speaker 4: even Cornan himself has voiced this concern. It's obviously a
Speaker 4: self serving concern, but you know, the concern that we're
Speaker 4: going to spend tens of millions, over one hundred million
Speaker 4: dollars on a statewide primary in Texas when at least
Speaker 4: some of that money could be going to trying to
Speaker 4: flip open Senate seats in places like Michigan, New Hampshire, Minnesota.
Speaker 4: So I think that's the pro you know, corn In
Speaker 4: view in DC. But obviously, you know, the Senate Republican
Speaker 4: conference has become just more and more trumpy. It's still
Speaker 4: not as trumpy as House Republicans are. Obviously House Republicans
Speaker 4: are very pro Trump rowdy bunch. But you have seen
Speaker 4: the remaking of the Senate, you know, Republican conference into
Speaker 4: definitely a more pro Trump body, and for people who
Speaker 4: want to see it continue in this direction, this is
Speaker 4: a very pivotal fight in that.
Speaker 2: Trend and how much of this comes down to the
Speaker 2: big man himself the endorsement from President Trump.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I was going to say earlier.
Speaker 4: I mean, we could spend hours talking about all the
Speaker 4: different dynamics of this race and the pros and cons
Speaker 4: of each candidate, But really, I think this is going
Speaker 4: to turn on what Trump ultimately chooses to do in
Speaker 4: this race. You know, he had I think he weighed
Speaker 4: in on this race for the first time publicly last weekend.
Speaker 4: He told reporters that he, you know, knows and respects
Speaker 4: both men, or knows and likes both men, but would
Speaker 4: make an endorsement at quote the appropriate time. Paxton himself
Speaker 4: has said, I think in one of his post announcement interviews,
Speaker 4: that he doesn't expect Trump to endorse until closer to
Speaker 4: the primary in March twenty twenty six. So right now,
Speaker 4: the vibes are clearly that Trump is not itching to
Speaker 4: jump into this race, And I think for Paxton one
Speaker 4: of his immediate challenges in this race is to try
Speaker 4: to keep out a credible third candidate, whether that's someone
Speaker 4: like Wesley congressman from Houston. I know, Beth Van Dyne,
Speaker 4: congresswoman from the Dallas area. Her name also gets tossed around.
Speaker 4: So Paxton, you know, I think he's got some short
Speaker 4: term He's got some you know, short term tasks he
Speaker 4: needs to fulfill, and then some you know in terms
Speaker 4: of keeping out a third credible candidate, and then maybe
Speaker 4: some medium term tasks in terms of trying to lock
Speaker 4: down trump endorsement or continue to keep Trump out of
Speaker 4: the race, which I'm sure he would view as a
Speaker 4: win in a way as well. So that's I think,
Speaker 4: you know what Paxton's to do list is right now.
Speaker 5: Yeah, you kind of contrast this race to the lieutenant
Speaker 5: governor's race, right where Dan Patrick announced reelection and Trump
Speaker 5: immediately endorsed him, right, you know, we at least don't
Speaker 5: have that situation in Texas. You know, it seems like
Speaker 5: Cornin has made some efforts in the past year or
Speaker 5: so to sort of mend some fences with some of
Speaker 5: the people in the grassroots who have fought against him.
Speaker 5: There's kind of this famous moment in the twenty twenty
Speaker 5: two State Republican Convention when Cornan spoke on stage and
Speaker 5: was essentially booed off stage. You know, he has We
Speaker 5: had an article from Matthew Choy a few months ago
Speaker 5: talking about how he's kind of tried to repair that relationship.
Speaker 5: You know, he has voted with Trump, He backed most,
Speaker 5: if not all, of Trump's nominees. This you know, this
Speaker 5: year early in Trump's terms, So you know, can he
Speaker 5: kind of keep that relationship friendly enough to keep Trump
Speaker 5: out of the race. I think is definitely an interesting question, right.
Speaker 2: I mean, and we've talked about this on the state level,
Speaker 2: Like you know, the thin fine like distinctions we draw
Speaker 2: between different candidates. Right, Cornyn, as Matthew has reported on
Speaker 2: for US, like voted with Trump's agenda ninety two percent
Speaker 2: of the time during his first President Trump's first term
Speaker 2: and supported all of his nominees. Like, certainly Cornyn has
Speaker 2: been very aligned with President Trump. He is I think
Speaker 2: a little haunted by he was. I believe it was
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty three when he said ahead of the
Speaker 2: twenty twenty four election, you know that Trump's time had
Speaker 2: passed him by. He has done a lot since then
Speaker 2: to sort of try to work his way back in.
Speaker 2: He posted a photo on x like a couple of
Speaker 2: weeks ago before Paxston got in the race of him
Speaker 2: like reading the art of the deal, which I felt
Speaker 2: was a.
Speaker 1: Little on the nose personally, but you know, people.
Speaker 2: Like it, so yeah, I think certainly a lot of
Speaker 2: like you said, a lot of this speculation really comes
Speaker 2: down to one man.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 5: The other thing people really hit Corning on was his
Speaker 5: involvement in a really the only gun safety bill to
Speaker 5: pass the Senate in recent years. This was in twenty
Speaker 5: twenty two, after the Uvaldi shooting. It was a bill
Speaker 5: that increased funding for mental health and incentivized states to
Speaker 5: pass laws that keep guns out of the hands of
Speaker 5: people who are found by the courts to be thrust
Speaker 5: to themselves or others. Are you know, known as red
Speaker 5: flag laws. You know, I think a lot of people
Speaker 5: looked pointed at that and said, you know, this is
Speaker 5: a very very very modest gun safety law. But anytime
Speaker 5: you pass anything that can be called a gun safety law,
Speaker 5: you're gonna engender kind of push back from the Republican right,
Speaker 5: and that indeed did happen.
Speaker 3: I'm sure we'll see.
Speaker 5: That be brought up during the legislative I mean during
Speaker 5: the primary this year.
Speaker 2: Absolutely, there's another person in this you know, little family
Speaker 2: feud we've got going on, which is Senator Ted Cruz,
Speaker 2: I mean, Patrick, what do you anticipate.
Speaker 1: Are we going to see.
Speaker 2: An endorsement from him? Does that endorsement carry much weight
Speaker 2: and sort of what do you think his role will
Speaker 2: be in all of this?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think Cruz will probably stay out unless Trump
Speaker 4: gets in and a real front runner emerges by the
Speaker 4: filing deadline. But I think Cruz otherwise probably has, you know,
Speaker 4: no political incentive to get deeply involved in this primary
Speaker 4: with a formal endorsement or campaigning for anyone again, unless
Speaker 4: it's clear that Trump is going to back someone, and
Speaker 4: then that candidate kind of pulls away with it, whether
Speaker 4: it's corn And or Packston or even you know, another candidate.
Speaker 4: So Cruse is staying out of it, and it's you know,
Speaker 4: a course, it's very politically awkward for him because he's
Speaker 4: had this very fragile, you know, alliance or I don't
Speaker 4: know if i'd call it an alliance, a relationship with corn
Speaker 4: In over the years. I mean, he previously declined to
Speaker 4: endorse Cornan in his uh, I'm trying to remember, in
Speaker 4: his last in one of his last competitive primaries. But
Speaker 4: then Cornyn did campaign for Cruz and his one of
Speaker 4: his hard fought re election campaigns. And so, you know,
Speaker 4: Cruse has a lot of I think, you know, it's
Speaker 4: important to know Cruise has a lot of overlapping relationships
Speaker 4: here when it comes to elected officials, donors, grassroots activists,
Speaker 4: and so I don't think it's necessarily him Him declining
Speaker 4: to endorse Cornan is necessarily, you know, should be read
Speaker 4: as an explicit endorse, you know, de facto endorsement of Paxton.
Speaker 4: But you know, Cruse is now, like you know, Cruise
Speaker 4: has now served quite a long time in Texas, has
Speaker 4: built up a lot of relationships in Washington, in Austin
Speaker 4: and Houston, and so CRUs is deeply I think, you know,
Speaker 4: many political conflicts of interest in this race.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's an interesting he's he's sort of an interesting role.
Speaker 2: I mean, certainly when he came into the Senate was
Speaker 2: such a scene as sort of I think, in many
Speaker 2: ways the standard bearer of this more insurgent movement, and
Speaker 2: now there, you know, I wouldn't say the movement has
Speaker 2: like moved beyond him necessarily, but like if, certainly, if
Speaker 2: we had a Senator Paxton, I think Senator Paxton would
Speaker 2: maybe take up the role of like a flame thrower
Speaker 2: in Texas's flamethrower in chief.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and you know, for what it's worth, Paxston is
Speaker 4: doing all he can to kind of butter up Cruise
Speaker 4: for a potential endorsement maybe down the line. And every
Speaker 4: media interview that I've seen from Paxston since he launched
Speaker 4: his campaign, he you know, constantly says, we have a
Speaker 4: conservative fighter and Ted Cruz we need another conservative fighter
Speaker 4: in that other Senate seat. And so you know that's
Speaker 4: a contrast that really helps, you know, Paxton make the case.
Speaker 4: But it could also, you know, try to lay the
Speaker 4: groundwork for a Cruise endorsement down the line if Cruz
Speaker 4: does decide to get off the sidelines.
Speaker 5: So, knowing we were going to talk about this today,
Speaker 5: I sat down and sort of tried to prepare in
Speaker 5: my mind the case for and against Cornan Can I
Speaker 5: do this and get y'all to react to it?
Speaker 2: All?
Speaker 5: Right? So I'm going to do the Paxton case first, Right,
Speaker 5: it's Paxton. The polls pretty consistently show is the more
Speaker 5: popular politician in Texas. The most recent UT Texas Politics
Speaker 5: poll showed a thirty percent approval rating for Cornan thirty
Speaker 5: seven percent disapproved, so minus seven percentage points there. Paxton's
Speaker 5: approval rating was thirty seven percent thirty four disapproved, so
Speaker 5: a plus three percent.
Speaker 3: Right. Both have some.
Speaker 5: Kind of no opinion you know or unknown type people there,
Speaker 5: But among GOP voters the difference is even bigger. Paxton
Speaker 5: a plus thirty five percent net favorability according to a
Speaker 5: u of H poll in February, Cornan a plus eighteen
Speaker 5: net favorability. That's for people who have voted or should
Speaker 5: be expected to vote in the GOP primary next year.
Speaker 5: And then, as we are sort of already talked about,
Speaker 5: Paxton just represents more of what the Republican Party is
Speaker 5: right now than John Cornyn does this. He seems to
Speaker 5: be the type of politician that people in that party
Speaker 5: want right now compared to the more traditional John Cornyn.
Speaker 5: What else am I missing there? What am I missing
Speaker 5: in the Paxton case?
Speaker 1: I think that anything else on the past, I mean.
Speaker 4: I think that was the case for Paxton.
Speaker 3: That's case Pax, right.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I will say, like, and then I do want
Speaker 2: to hear the case for Cornyn. But like we sort
Speaker 2: of saw a preview of this right when it turned
Speaker 2: Paxton was challenged by George P. Bush, right, like a
Speaker 2: little bit more of that slightly more old school versus
Speaker 2: and that was when Paxton was in like the heat
Speaker 2: of the you know, his legal challenges, and he won
Speaker 2: by quite a healthy margin. So certainly there's a case
Speaker 2: to be made for voters love them right, Yeah, all right,
Speaker 2: so let me.
Speaker 4: Then, well, I think the big caveat there is and
Speaker 4: I think for those of us who follow politics closely,
Speaker 4: that twenty two primary and primary runoff was especially frustrating
Speaker 4: and kind of inconclusive because he was running against the
Speaker 4: Bush and in Republican circles, primary electric circles, the Bush
Speaker 4: name is just the beginning and end of conversation for
Speaker 4: some voters. And so you're really looking at that twenty
Speaker 4: two primary because of the opponent, you really wonder if
Speaker 4: that is actually an accurate gauge of what a real
Speaker 4: race against Paxton looks like, just because again, for some
Speaker 4: Republican primary voters they just hear the name Bush and
Speaker 4: they just plug their ears.
Speaker 3: More or less.
Speaker 4: So it's always interesting to think about how instructive that
Speaker 4: race really was.
Speaker 5: Yeah, and additionally, Paxton was the incumbent, right and in
Speaker 5: this race, Paxston will not be in the incumbent exactly.
Speaker 5: But also just the history of Republican primaries, I mean
Speaker 5: Cornyin actually now I'm moving into the case for Cornin here,
Speaker 5: but has a better history. Right that twenty twenty two primary,
Speaker 5: kN Paxton, in the first round of voting won forty
Speaker 5: two point seven percent, which means that more than half
Speaker 5: of the primary voters voted against Ken Paxton in that race,
Speaker 5: those same voters who are presumably going to be voting
Speaker 5: in this election. Right now, let's talk about Cornan's last
Speaker 5: three primaries. He faced challengers in each of those. In
Speaker 5: two thousand and eight, he had eighty one percent of
Speaker 5: the vote against Larry Kilgore. In twenty fourteen, he got
Speaker 5: fifty nine percent of the vote against Steve Stockman, a
Speaker 5: former congressman, who pulled in nineteen percent of the vote.
Speaker 5: So Cornyin won that race by forty percent. In twenty twenty,
Speaker 5: he got seventy six percent of the vote. Admittedly, none
Speaker 5: of those were as strong of opponents as George P. Bush,
Speaker 5: but I mean those are resounding victories, something that Ken
Speaker 5: Paxton decidedly did not get in the first round of
Speaker 5: voting the last time. In addition to that, you know,
Speaker 5: the argument against Paxton in that primary was all his
Speaker 5: ethical concerns. There seemed to be some success in that,
Speaker 5: but also just Cornin's going to have a lot more
Speaker 5: money and that's going to be the top race in
Speaker 5: this race. He is going to be able to really
Speaker 5: message those concerns in this race. Since that race, also,
Speaker 5: Paxton was impeached. Sixty of the eighty five Republican members
Speaker 5: voted to impeach him in the House. Admittedly, he then
Speaker 5: was acquitted in the Senate, but that's notable and people
Speaker 5: will say like, okay, but yeah, then the next Republican
Speaker 5: primary for the House members was a bloodbath, right, But
Speaker 5: when you kind of break down the numbers, it's a
Speaker 5: little bit more complicated than that, because, of course Ken
Speaker 5: Paxon was going against the Republican members who voted to
Speaker 5: impeach him, but Greg Abbott was also going against the
Speaker 5: Republican members who voted against him on the voucher bill,
Speaker 5: and if you look at the numbers, Greg Abbott actually
Speaker 5: seemed to have a lot more success there.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 5: So there were sixteen Republican members running for reelection who
Speaker 5: voted against school vouchers in the twenty twenty four primaries.
Speaker 5: Nine of them lost their seats to more than half.
Speaker 5: There were forty Republicans who voted for who were running
Speaker 5: for reelection and voted four school vouchers, but also voted
Speaker 5: to impeach. So that basically means that Paxton was going
Speaker 5: against them, but Greg Abbott was not. Only five of
Speaker 5: those for forty lost their primaries, that's thirteen percent. Okay,
Speaker 5: So what people on Cornan's case, who are on Cornan's
Speaker 5: side would say is that Paxton actually did not demonstrate
Speaker 5: an ability to be that effective in affecting the Republican primaries.
Speaker 5: It was Greg Abbott who proved to be incredibly effective.
Speaker 5: And so there is all this record of Paxxon actually
Speaker 5: not doing that well in these primaries over the last
Speaker 5: couple of years. Tell me evaluate that case.
Speaker 1: Patrick thoughts, Yeah, no, I agree with that.
Speaker 4: I mean, I've told anybody who will listen, you know,
Speaker 4: in the past year that I don't think nearly as
Speaker 4: many State House Republicans would have lost their primaries if
Speaker 4: the State House would have just gone ahead and passed
Speaker 4: school vouchers last session and gotten that over with. I mean,
Speaker 4: in fact, Feelin would probably still be Speaker in my
Speaker 4: view if that had happened, because I really believe that
Speaker 4: the majority of those races were incumbents lost. The primary
Speaker 4: factor was definitely the opposition, the money, the campaigning that
Speaker 4: was brought against them because of their position on school vouchers.
Speaker 4: You know, Paxton did not in these races that he targeted,
Speaker 4: He did not bring nearly as much in some cases
Speaker 4: any you know, outside money to the table in the
Speaker 4: way that Abbott was able to bring his own campaign
Speaker 4: funds and then outside campaign funds to the table and
Speaker 4: races that were being targeted for school over the school
Speaker 4: vouchers vote. So yeah, I agree that Paxton was not
Speaker 4: a driving factor or impeachment I don't think was a
Speaker 4: driving factor. And the eventual outcome of a lot of
Speaker 4: those primaries where House.
Speaker 2: Incumbents lost, yeah, I think it's sort of I think
Speaker 2: forever the question right now in Texas Republican politics, at
Speaker 2: least right which is like we have this extremely loud,
Speaker 2: extremely sort of a media dominant group of insurgent Republicans,
Speaker 2: grassroots Republicans, whatever you want to call them.
Speaker 1: But how effective are they?
Speaker 3: Right?
Speaker 1: I mean, they didn't win the speakers vote.
Speaker 2: They didn't wait like there's been a number of several
Speaker 2: of them, you know, who voted to impeach maintain their seats.
Speaker 2: To your point, so in some ways, like to go
Speaker 2: back to where we started, this is a question of like,
Speaker 2: this Ken Paxton led insurgent movement is very loud, they're
Speaker 2: very dominant, they're very you know what.
Speaker 1: We talk about a lot.
Speaker 2: This will be a test of like, well, how much
Speaker 2: of the elector do they have on their side?
Speaker 4: I think to be clear, I think impeachment was very
Speaker 4: helpful to Paxton's personal narrative, especially going into this primary
Speaker 4: challenge to Cornyn. But if the question is like how
Speaker 4: determinative was that in the last election cycle with those
Speaker 4: incumbent losses, I don't think it was factor number one.
Speaker 5: Can we talk about the impact of this race on
Speaker 5: the general election. We don't actually know, of course, who,
Speaker 5: if any prominent Democrat is going to choose to run
Speaker 5: for this office. I'm sure they'll find someone. Whether all
Speaker 5: the equality candidate I think remains to be seen, right,
Speaker 5: But I mean, I remember in twenty twenty four, all
Speaker 5: my sort of non politically focused friends would be like,
Speaker 5: is Colin Alred like actually gonna win the US Senate race?
Speaker 5: And I was like, no, he's not going to win
Speaker 5: the US Senate race. And if you were hoping for
Speaker 5: a Democrat to win a statewide race, I would tell them,
Speaker 5: here's the path for that to happen. It's Donald Trump
Speaker 5: winning in twenty twenty four, creating a then mid term
Speaker 5: election that inevitably goes backlash against the Republican who won
Speaker 5: the previous year, and then Ken Paxton successfully primarying John
Speaker 5: Cornyn in that race. I thought at that time that
Speaker 5: that was actually maybe a credible path for a Democratic victory.
Speaker 5: I was not expecting Trump to trounce to win Biden
Speaker 5: at the amount you know, exactly in Texas that he did,
Speaker 5: so I kind of maybe regret telling that to people.
Speaker 5: But I'm curious what you think, Patrick, about how vulnerable
Speaker 5: might can Paxton be in a general election in the
Speaker 5: political climate that we might see in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I think the polling bears out that,
Speaker 4: or at least my gut feeling is that he's more
Speaker 4: vulnerable to political competition in the general election than Cornyn is.
Speaker 4: I don't know if that's you know, the hottest take,
Speaker 4: but I still think he is. He enters the general
Speaker 4: election as the favorite, given that the given the political
Speaker 4: moment that Texas is in with the state, you know,
Speaker 4: getting appearing to get redder in statewide elections. So, you know,
Speaker 4: I think Democrats are in Texas are always kind of
Speaker 4: self negotiating over what the best opportunity is. It's like, oh,
Speaker 4: if we just get you know, this nominee after a
Speaker 4: bruising battle versus this nominee, you know, maybe we can
Speaker 4: win it. And and sure, like I just acknowledge, I
Speaker 4: think he would be a more you know, you would
Speaker 4: create a better opportunity for them, But I still think
Speaker 4: he would be the favorite in that general election.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's probably the reality is.
Speaker 2: You know, it's there's not a really as much as
Speaker 2: that path I think probably did make sense, like before
Speaker 2: the election, you know, the I don't know that the
Speaker 2: backlash that I'm sure some Republicans are preparing for in
Speaker 2: the midterms is going to make it to Texas.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 5: The other fun thing about this is now we get
Speaker 5: a primary for attorney general as well. My favorite thing
Speaker 5: to talk exactly exactly, and you know there are already
Speaker 5: people in that race. John Bash, a prominent conservative attorney
Speaker 5: who has done some work for Elon Musk. You've got
Speaker 5: May's Middleton, prominent senator. I saw that. Joan Huffman, another
Speaker 5: member of the Senate, told Brad Johnson from The Texan
Speaker 5: Today that she's seriously considering her run. I think Brian Hughes,
Speaker 5: another senator, has come up a lot. Mitch Little, who
Speaker 5: represented Ken, extended that race. We could have a really
Speaker 5: crowded and interesting primary for that race too.
Speaker 2: You talk about like things political reporters love, It's like, sure,
Speaker 2: we love We'd love a corn In and Paxton battle.
Speaker 2: We love a crowded attorney general's race where everyone gets
Speaker 2: to sort of litigate what they think the attorney general
Speaker 2: should do, what they think see that role as I mean,
Speaker 2: Texas's attorney general plays such an outsized role in national
Speaker 2: conservative politics, which.
Speaker 1: Has not always been the case.
Speaker 2: I you know, Will I won't belabor this, but you know,
Speaker 2: twenty five years ago when John Cornant the first Republican
Speaker 2: attorney general since reconstruction in modern Texas history. You know,
Speaker 2: before that the attorney general's you know, was basically a
Speaker 2: bureaucratic workhorse, and now we have, you know, this conservative,
Speaker 2: very ideological office. And I think we can safely assume
Speaker 2: that the Republican candidate, at least in that election will
Speaker 2: be cut from the from the same cloth.
Speaker 5: Yeah, And there's just a lot of pent up and
Speaker 5: in the Republican Party right now, because there's a lot
Speaker 5: of people who have been holding their office for a
Speaker 5: very long time, and other people who see themselves as
Speaker 5: a governor someday or a statewide official some days. Seeing that,
Speaker 5: of course, controllers race, there will also be something there
Speaker 5: because of Glenn Hager going to A and M. So
Speaker 5: it's going to be a very after you know, honestly,
Speaker 5: like a pretty boring twenty twenty four election.
Speaker 3: Like this is going to be a fun one in
Speaker 3: twenty twenty six. I yes, certainly on the AG race too.
Speaker 4: I'm not ready to you I mentioned Democrats in the
Speaker 4: Senate race earlier. I'm not ready to say that Democrats
Speaker 4: may have a better shot in the AG race. But
Speaker 4: I do think the dynamics going into that general election
Speaker 4: could be a lot different than the dynamics going into
Speaker 4: the general election for Senate this AG. This Republican primary
Speaker 4: for AG could produce a nominee who no one really
Speaker 4: knows statewide in a general electric right, And so you know,
Speaker 4: especially compared to a Paxton or a corn And entering
Speaker 4: a general election, they have pretty broad statewide name ID.
Speaker 4: But like, you know, this is just an example, but say,
Speaker 4: like Joan Hoffman is the Republican nominee for AG, not
Speaker 4: a very well known name statewide, And so it'll be
Speaker 4: interesting to see if that Republican primary produces someone who
Speaker 4: is able to make it through the fire of the
Speaker 4: party's primary but then is like pretty unknown statewide to
Speaker 4: a general electorate.
Speaker 5: And I'm sure you know, Democrats will try their hardest
Speaker 5: to make this about like abortion enforcement and everything like that,
Speaker 5: you know, and an issue that they've not really been
Speaker 5: able to wield to their wield effectively up until now.
Speaker 2: Right, And like I'm no political consultant, but I do
Speaker 2: think like Democrats do sort of have an opportunity to say,
Speaker 2: like the Attorney General's office is supposed to be doing
Speaker 2: all this bureaucratic stuff, like it is not supposed to
Speaker 2: be this ideological you know, weapon and like restoring you
Speaker 2: know a little bit of like we'll just enforce child
Speaker 2: support and we'll do medicaid fraud and we'll do you know,
Speaker 2: crime victims compensation and like leave the partisan litigation to
Speaker 2: you know, private litigants.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well we'll see how that.
Speaker 1: I don't know, but love here's I know. Promoters love
Speaker 1: for they love bureaucracy.
Speaker 2: They love Yeah, particularly in Texas, they love We're not
Speaker 2: going to do Trump s bidding that works every time. Well,
Speaker 2: we will be watching all of that and all of
Speaker 2: this as well on what promises to be a very
Speaker 2: very exciting run up to March twenty twenty six, which
Speaker 2: is actually kind of a long time away. Patrick, thank
Speaker 2: you so much for joining us. We really really appreciate
Speaker 2: having you here, Missy.
Speaker 3: Patrick, thanks for having me.
Speaker 2: Yes, that's it for today. You can find all episodes
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